Cheddar playoff week #2 lines.

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Pretty awesome football last week and give it up for OXR who came within a half point  in the final game of hitting an unprecedented ten team Lobsterfest.  Please get your picks to Pete and me via email by 335pm Saturday!

  • Magee

    falcons
    Jags
    Saints

    essay: Patriots -13

    BILL BELICHICK. Angry Tom vs Mike Mularkey. This is a mismatch of epic proportions. A healthy Hogan, a healthy gronk. Dion Lewis and White catching passes out of the backfield vs a vanilla mularkey offense.

    Got to be worried about the Mariota backdoor cover but I’lll take my chances this gets ugly. If they can force a turnover or 2. We know how the Pats feel that no lead is safe. I hate the Pats. I hate Brady and I hate Belichick. But the Pats -13

    • ya know dion lewis was maybe the best personnel move joe banner made. too bad he also cut him.

      • Dave Kolonich

        Every time I see Banner or Lombardi crow about talent, I think of Mingo and Leon McFadden.

  • GG
    CapitalGG

    Falcons -3 @ Eagles: Falcons defensive speed v. Foles slow delivery.
    Steelers -7 v Jaguars: Big Ben > Bortles
    Vikings -5 @ Saints: Couldn’t decide which side I wanted to be on in this one, so I decided to just fade Bill Simmons.

    8-1 for the group on essays last week. That’s just crazy. An amazing group here. It’s gonna be tough to catch up, but here goes nothing…

    This week, for my essays I’m on Patriots 13 v Titans. While I had giving almost 2 touchdowns. But I’ve got to do it.

    Patriots always seem to respond when they are seemingly under attack. The Wickersham article is just the sort of thing that would provide Belichick with the bulletin board material to bring this group together.

    The weather will be cold, starting around 22* at kickoff and dropping. This is to New England’s distinct advantage as the Pats were practicing outside in the “bomb cyclone” that hit the Northeast last week.

    Also, the Pats have had a week off to get healthy while the Titans had that crazy game in KC last week.

    Long story, short… I’m taking the better coach and better QB at home that has to be feeling embattled right now. Bad combination, especially knowing Brady and Belichick’s history.

  • FHCF
    Falcons
    Patriots
    Saints

    Steelers

    I can’t believe it’s not double digits. I know what happened 3 months ago when these teams played, and I know the Jaguars have a real defense. But the Steelers are really good, they’re rested and they’re pretty healthy. And the Jaguars have Blake Bortles. And the Steelers are going to make Blake throw, and either the Steelers are going to catch it or nobody is going to catch it. How do the Jaguars get to 14 points? And how ugly does it get if the Steelers get the first 14? Bell and Brown eventually find cracks in that defense, too.

  • Hate
    Falcons -3
    Patriots -13
    Steelers -7
    Vikings -5

    Essay Vikings -5 vs. Saints
    Zimmer and Payton are longtime friends from their days together as assistants in Dallas, so whatever extra tricks each has their up sleeve will not be a surprise. It seems as if the Vikings are this year’s team of destiny and might be the first home team to be able to play in a Super Bowl. To do that though they will have to play error-free football which they should be able to do after having a bye last week.

    • here’s a prop bet for petefranklin: case keenum will convert 100% of his 3rd downs.

  • JMac
    Falcons -3
    Titans +13
    Vikings -5
    Steelers -7

    Another playoff round beckons. Steelers are my essay pick this time. None of the other lines made me wonder where they came from. The Pats should win, however it’s a coin toss as to whether a cover happens – they might be efficient and just win or the Titans might implode under the Brady-Belichick glare and allow a large margin. One sure thing is that Tom Brady is getting weirder by the hour. Philadelphia will be a tough place to get a W for the Falcons, and while I see the Dirty Birds coming away with the win, I’m not ready to double down on them with their inconsistency. The Vikings might be a hometown SuperBowl team, and seem to have something special cooking up. I’m concerned the Saints can score enough to keep it close.

    Which leaves the Steelers. The Jags didn’t cover vs the mighty Bills. Their fans are crazy, with all those viral videos of jumping down on flaming tables. I can’t say my fanaticism for any team in any sport would cause me to drunkenly jump down on a table, flaming or otherwise, and get it on video for future prospective employers to see. Based on the Steelers’ recent performance, home field, I was expecting the line to be double digits, so 7 is a gift. Unless Vegas knows something that I don’t, which is a ridiculous notion.

  • DK
    First, congrats to OXR for nearly running the table last week – that was an epic picking display. Second, I truly hate all of this week’s matchups and I’m pretty sure I’ll change my mind 37 times after submitting.

    Atlanta (-3)
    Jacksonville (+7)
    New Orleans (+5)

    Essay:

    New England (-13)

    I really hate making this pick, as most of my non-Browns Cheddar wins have come by bucking the general consensus. However, I don’t see the Titans scoring a lot of points – particularly with their shaky QB situation and Coach Mularky virtually off the hot seat for the time being. Plus, the manufactured TB12 controversy has Belichick and Brady riled up and usually destruction follows any drama coming out of New England. Of course, I could be way off here and a franchise altering upset is staring me in the face. Yet, I don’t trust any other team remaining in the playoffs to cover – something the Patriots have done all season. We’ll go with the Pats for now but heads up Mike and Peter – you might want to check your email early Saturday afternoon.

    • Brady is the Gwyneth Paltrow of the NFL.

  • MPLS
    Falcons -3
    Pats -13
    Saints +5
    Steelers -7

    I just don’t trust Blake Bortles in the playoffs on the road at Heinz. At all. Last week he really couldn’t do anything through the air at home against the Bills. His only “big plays” were with his legs. Not sure that is sustainable again. He had a number of short throws where he looked like he had the yips. When the Jags destroyed the Steelers in week 5, BortIes only had 8 completions. I doubt Pittsburgh let’s Fournette go crazy again. So many things have to go right for a defense to completely carry a team through the playoffs. I know Pittsburgh has their own issues and drama right now (overconfidence/Bell’s contract status/Ben’s future), but they are the veteran team, and I think they will get it done at home. Between Bell/Brown/Ju-Ju/Bryant, Ben usually finds a way when the chips are down. They’ve had a week to sit and home and rest. I think this will be a very ugly game (similar to last week’s Jags game), but in a playoff game, I see Pittsburgh pulling away in the 2nd half.

    -CLEinMPLS

  • TA
    Eagles +3 (essay): Home dogs in playoffs historically hit at a 65% ats clip. I think there is too much overreaction to Foles and Atl’s performance last week. Falcons looked solid but the Rams did outgain them 5.9-4.6 yds/play, a very wide margin. Atl benefitted from 2 awful Rams special tms turnovers. Eagles play very good defense at home and let’s not act like Foles is Tom Savage or anything. He’s a proven vet QB in this league who has won before. Finally, I‎t definitely doesn’t hurt fading a dome team playing in 30 degree cold Philadelphia weather. Eagles win 20-19

    Titans +13
    Jags +7
    Vikes -5

  • OXR
    I guess my petition to end the NFL season after the wild card round didn’t get much traction. Oh well, here goes:

    Eagles +3 over Falcons
    Saints +5 over Vikings
    Patriots -13 over Titans

    Essay Steelers -7 over Jaguars — This isn’t the biggest mismatch by DVOA this week; that would be New England-Tennessee, in which I am begrudgingly picking the Pats even thought I hate double digit playoff lines. There are a couple of reasons for me to essay the Steelers, though. Firstly, I expect them to be a popular pick this week — in fact, I’ll be surprised if I’m the only one essaying them — and where I’m currently at I want as much company as possible when I make a mistake. (If I was a bit further back I might consider going with the Jags as a chance to catch up, though.) But also, just thinking about the game in a vacuum, I believe the wide world might be putting too much weight on the week 5 catastrophe. I mean, it did take place, don’t get me wrong, but I’m not regarding it as a terribly predictive event. Obviously if Roethlisberger throws another nineteen picks or whatever then I’m on a loser here, but I think it’s more likely that Blake Bortles will have to show a whole hell of a lot more than he did last week, in fairly inhospitable conditions. I’ll live with the seven points.

    • you already hit on the essay prediction..

  • Petefranklin

    Here’s a couple winners for those of you who may be down on your luck…
    >>>Tom Brady over 24 completions (prop bet) The roadmap to beating the Titans takes the route of short passes. Titans don’t allow long passes or much yardage on the ground, forcing Brady to throw short to keep moving the chains.
    >>> New England/Tennesee over 47 total points. This # is now 48 at most shops but you might find a 47.5 or 47 with a local bookie. If he has 47, jump on the over.

    • shoot im on the under. got the pats for 30 and titans lucky to hit 13…
      we’ll see.
      but i’m enjoying o/u playing!

      • Petefranklin

        I was at the hockey game last night and didn’t get to see much of that football game thankfully. i did bet the second half under 24 for about 40% of my original bet so i got lucky with a meaningless touchdown at the end.
        That Brady prop was easy money though. At william hill where I bet it, they pulled it down friday sometime after I bet it on account. It was a terrible # and I am happy to stick it to William Hill whenever possible as they have screwed me on baseball #’s many times.

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