Cheddar playoffs week one.

Here’s the weekend lines.  Our playoff dudes need to have their picks emailed to Frowns and me by 330pm Saturday.

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Hail to the victors and let’s pour one out for pheasantpants on his dramatic near-miss.  On the other hand, we have TA who’s last minute change of the Skins to Cards won him that regular season championship outright. Here is where we’ll capture the picks for the nine contenders for the Cheddar money in week one of the playoffs.  This week there are ten picks total worth two points each.  (The essay this week and throughout the playoffs carries a five point bonus.)  Five picks for today’s games are due today; next weekend’s games will be posted an hour before the first kickoff. Here’s the lines we’re working with today.  We’ll be back Thursday with lines for the weekend games. At a glance view of today’s picks (ignore the formatting):

  • FHCF
    I don’t love this, for it seems too easy. Blake Bortles giving more than a touchdown in a playoff game is any gambler’s dream. The Jags have earned this chance, though. They’ve built a legit bully on defense, Bortles has been 10x better than anyone thought possible (while still being shitty) and the run game is good. They’re well constructed and well coached, and this game is decades in the making. The Bills snuck in, and it wasn’t that long ago it appeared they were trying to tank. And while I worry about Tyrod throwing picks and this going up in flames, I’m going to think the Bills are also built to play a 16-13 playoff game. I’ll take Tyrod, I’ll take the 9 and I’ll root for the Bills’ defense.

    Bills +9

    Saints
    Falcons
    Chiefs
    Bama

    am changing Rams to Falcons from previous email

  • jmac
    Part 2

    Chiefs -9
    Falcons +7
    Bills +9
    Panthers +7

    Alabama -3.5

    Paraphrasing the Onion, losing to Georgia would definitely hurt Alabama’s chances of winning a national championship.

  • magee
    Chiefs
    Falcons
    Jags
    Panthers
    Bama
    Falcons here we are. 10-6 after losing the super bowl. The Rams rested the starters last week and I am expecting a slow start. 7 points is a lot to lay in a teams first playoff game with a QB 1st playoff start and a HC first playoff appearance vs the defending conference champions. Using that logic alone and not looking at the X’s and O’s you would take the falcons or pass on this game. Throw in some mismatches here on both sides. Julio/Sanu have matchups they can win. The falcons are not a pound the rock up team to begin with and Matty Ice has been thru the battles. The Falcons get torched by pass catching backs and gurley could eat in the passing game. But if the Falcons let Gurley get off and contain everyone else I think they cover. Falcons secondary is above average and I think the Goff makes at least 1 mistake in his first playoff game. 7 points is too many. Falcons +7.

  • BallofHate
    Titans +9, Rams -7, Panthers +7, UGA +3.5
    Essay — Bills +9 at Jaguars
    In 1999 this could have been one of the matchups in the AFC Championship Game had the Bills not lost in the Music City Miracle. That was also the last time Buffalo made the playoffs and Jacksonville hosted a postseason game. Both teams have ugly passing games and should be counting on their running games. Even if with the possibility of McCoy being out, giving Buffalo 9 points especially against an average offense like Jacksonville’s is a lot of points, especially for two teams that aren’t used to taking part in the playoffs. Might as well go with the underdog one more time.

  • CapitalGG

    Titans +9 v Chiefs: At least 1 dog will cover, why not the Titans in a low scoring affair?
    Rams -7 v Falcons: My toughest call. Rams just seem to run up the score.
    Jaguars -9 v Bills: Shady less than 100%, Bills have no chance.
    Saints -7 v Panthers: Almost the essay. Saints have walloped them twice. Should do so again.

    Georgia +3.5 v Alabama:

    I know nothing. I probably didn’t deserve to be here, I’ve lost my mojo. So I’m playing the up-sell on the 1 game I have a good opinion on.

    I said before the playoff that I thought Georgia would win. They can run the ball unlike anyone else. Their defense is very solid. Fromme has been very good. They beat the better team in their semi-final, as Clemson turned out to be a wee bit (B1G in the playoff) overrated.

    Bama has lost Anfernee Jennings from a linebacking corp that has been oft-injured this season.

    So I can catch points with the team I felt was best in the playoff. Done and done.

  • OXR
    Bills +9 over Jaguars
    Falcons +7 over Rams
    Panthers +7 over Saints

    Alabama -3.5 over Georgia

    Essay Titans +9 over Chiefs — Obviously my take on this week is that there are just waaaay too many points flying around out here, and so here I stand on all the road dogs. I’m not saying I can look at the Bills/Falcons/Panthers and feel Zen-like calm over this decision, but it’s a matter of principle, dammit. Meanwhile, the Titans are mediocre and temperamental and probably shouldn’t even be in the playoffs in the first place, but they are absolutely capable of making this game ugly if they don’t go into a fugue state and get stomped by 40. As of week 16, before everyone began resting their starters, this matchup is #15 vs #22 in weighted DVOA; it is my contention that the Chiefs should not be favored by 9 against anyone this side of the Jets (to whom, let us not forget, they actually lost last month). Also, as far as the metagame is concerned, to make up any ground in the Cheddar playoffs you always need a few wacky bounces to go your way, so why not start looking for them now? Derrick Henry should’ve been starting anyway, so maybe he can manufacture another of his infuriating backdoor covers.

  • CLE-MPLS
    Chiefs -9
    Falcons +7
    Bills +9
    Panthers +7
    Georgia +3.5 (Essay)

    I’m already pretty far back after Monday’s games, so might as well have some fun and take a game that I’m somewhat excited to watch. This is an amazing opportunity for Georgia. First time they are playing for a title in 35 years, and they get to do it 70 miles from their campus. I feel like it might just be “their time” after surviving Monday’s Rose Bowl. They got a little lucky that Lincoln Riley got conservative late in the game. After facing Baker Mayfield in the Rose Bowl, this game should be much easier for Georgia’s defense. I expect this to be a very low scoring game. I thought Jalen Hurts would be better through the air this season, but he doesn’t like to pull trigger until the receiver is really in the clear. He is still too tentative with his arm, and doesn’t “throw guys open.” Georgia absolutely has to put him in a lot of 3rd and long situations. This game is all about Georgia’s coaching staff. They have to pull out everything they have, get creative and really play to win on both sides of the ball. Don’t be afraid of Bama! Fromm got you here, open it up for him when the opportunities present themselves. Yes, Bama is terrific against the run, but I feel like the duo of Chubb and Michel might have a couple big moments in this game.

    -CLEinMPLS

  • TA
    Chiefs -9
    Falcons +7
    Saints -7
    UGA +3.5
    Jags -9 (Essay): I dont care if Shady McCoy plays or not this is an absolute mismatch. Buffalo is one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs posting the 5th worst point differential in playoff history. The Jags on the otherhand are #3 in the NFL in scoring margin this season. Where Jacksonville has a clear advantage is in the trenches as the Jags are 2nd in sack% vs a Buffalo offense that is 30th in allowing sacks. Buffalo has faced 4 of the top 10 defenses in sack%- Cincinnati, New Orleans, LAC and Carolina and went 0-4 losing by an average margin of 19 pts per game. Jacksonville has dominated teams at home winning 5 straight by an average score of 25-13. I dont know how Buffalo is going to move the ball on this defense.

    Sorry guys can you please replace my Atl pick with rams -7? Thx

  • DKreboot
    Rams
    Saints
    Titans
    Jags
    Bama

    Thanks guys!

  • CapGG
    Whew… Almost blew it. Pathetic effort by me. Taking a couple days to reset and and I’ll pop the essay on the weekend NFL slate. Good luck everyone!

    Georgia -2 v Oklahoma
    Clemson +3 v Alabama
    Michigan -7.5 v South Carolina
    Auburn -9.5 v Central Florida
    LSU -3.5 v Notre Dame

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye
    if I make the Cheddar playoffs here are my subject to change picks

    So Car
    Auburn
    LSU
    Geo
    Clemson

  • dkreboot
    South Carolina +7.5
    Auburn -9.5
    LSU -3.5
    Alabama -3

    Essay – Georgia -2

    First, congrats to CLEVTA for the regular season win. What a great down to the wire finish. Again, I can only cite the incompetence of the 2017 Cleveland Browns for my initial Cheddar success. This is why I’m encouraged by news of Hue Jackson’s 2018 return. Anyway, I need to get reacquainted with college ball but one truth I realized during the season is that Oklahoma is a bit flimsy coming out of an always wobbly Big 12. They were fortunate to lose earlier in the season, compared with Georgia and Alabama’s later season stumbles. All things being equal, Oklahoma doesn’t have a truly impressive win post-OSU (and games where 114 points are scored shouldn’t count). Georgia has rebounded since their Auburn collapse and may be the most well-rounded team in the playoff – along with being far better tested than their New Year’s opponent.

  • Ballofhate
    New Year’s Bowl Picks
    Michigan
    Auburn
    Notre Dame
    Georgia
    Clemson

  • Jmac
    Humblebrag time: No getting blind drunk this New Year’s Eve, courtesy of making the Cheddar Playoffs and needing to stay sharp for the five games on tap for tomorrow.

    South Carolina +7.5
    UCF +9.5
    LSU -3.5
    Oklahoma +2
    Alabama -3

    Essay time: South Carolina. Might as well use up a last essay on a college game while I still can. I’m guessing that an unused no-essay week does not carry into the playoff rounds. Plus, with the added pressure of having to make my essay substantive in nature and not just random word salad is mounting. Kind of like the pressure on Michigan QB Brandon Peters who is by some accounts at risk of getting bumped back in the depth chart with anything less than a spectacular performance. I suppose I should say, blah blah, SC is good on third and long when Mars in in retrograde while Michigan has decent punt coverage – and don’t underestimate special teams’ impact. I’ll just go with doing a gut check on the body of work for the season. Both teams have four losses. Michigan should have won at home vs. State, and should have put up better fights against Penn St and Ohio St. (Side note: let’s get working on Ohio-Ohio St and Penn-Penn St rivalries). Other than Kentucky, South Carolina’s losses were not unexpected. Plus recently Michigan is in a little bit of a slide, and allowed minnows to keep it close in a run of wins. Add the annual Harbaugh rumors, and a QB controversy, and I don’t see the Wolverines marching to a dominant victory here.

    Best of luck to everyone in the playoffs – best wishes to all for 2018

  • TA
    Happy New Years guys!
    Michigan -7.5
    Auburn -9.5
    ND +3.5
    Georgia -2
    Bama -3

  • oxr
    Not going to start essaying college games at this late stage, so let’s just go with…

    South Carolina +7.5 over Michigan
    Central Florida +9.5 over Auburn
    Notre Dame +3.5 over LSU
    Georgia -2 over Oklahoma
    Alabama -3 over Clemson

  • Magee

    Michigan -7.5
    Auburn -9.5
    Notre Dame +3.5
    Georgia -2
    Alabama -3

  • CLEinMSP

    Michigan -7.5
    UCF +9.5
    LSU -3.5
    Georgia -2
    Clemson +3

    I will essay one of the NFL games.

    -Brad (CLEinMSP)

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