Wk 16, Pats -3 at Steelers

NOTE: The Packers @ Panthers line is Panthers -3, not -5.5 as reflected below. 

Congrats to Agnes for her Lobsterfest last week.  Late line for Dolphins/Bills.  The TB12 thing around here in New England …

 

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  • Welp, Im in a box with having to essay MNF but what the hell, my essays have been shyte all year. Ill tell you a funny story though. I got invited to like the first black tie thing for me since my wedding. Here’s how I managed it. First off, I was having a way-too-big TV delivered Saturday and the crew missed the 4pm deadline so I call the driver with a pissy ‘where are you’ and cap it off with ‘I have a black tie thing tonite.’ lolololol… im sure that hastened his speed getting over here. fucking jackass i am. AND THEN.. so i put on the tux and there’s no belt loops and i dont have a cummerbund or suspended so im kinda freaking out and i bust in to the local men’s wearhouse with “ALL HANDS ON DECK! ITS A TUXEDO EMERGENCY!” and they were pretty much rockstars setting me up with the braces and even did my tie for me, no i didnt know how to do the tie. got me in and out and five minutes. BRINGING THIS BACK TO CHEDDAR.. matt ryan is prototype BC douche who no doubt has been to many black ties and so to the manor born he’s just going to cover the spread against the banged up no pass rush bringing bucs.

    • oh i also ordered a _Manhattan_ (jackass!) with dinner and sure enough dribbled all over my shirt. date had a good time though. go figure.

  • Matt Lawrence

    Dear Executive Committee, If the lines are set on Wednesday, stop changing them on Sunday. This is two weeks in a row where this has happened. How do you expect people to make plays based on lines you set, then change the line after the fact? Not all of us are stalking this site and it would be nice to know that you are going to randomly change the line.

    • 1. The line was changed on Thursday, not Sunday, in response to Dan’s question below. I’m sorry I forgot to edit the post to reflect the same, but it was posted in the thread, and I replied individually to everyone who picked the game.

      2. Re: not stalking the site, what a lot of people do is subscribe to email notifications for the comments, either to all the comments on each post, or just to the responses to their own posts, so stalking isn’t necessary.

      3. We’re not “randomly” changing lines. We only change lines when they are majorly off from the market, as noted in the rules, which say: “In the event of a major line movement in variance from the Cheddar line (such as when a starting quarterback unexpectedly becomes unavailable to play after the Cheddar line is set) the Executive Committee may take that game off the slate or adjust the line to reflect the current Vegas line.” We would prefer to email the group when this happens but Mike is the only one with the email list and he has been working long and hard hours lately and hasn’t been able to keep up with the thread, which is why I took the time to respond individually to everyone who picked this game. Anyway, the point is to keep the lines consistent with the market so we don’t have people piling on to “bargains,” because, as we have been over ad nauseum, that is lame and creates a race to the bottom that ruins the whole point of the contest.

      4. To the extent you’re worried about missing one of these announcements, here is a useful rule of thumb to follow: When you see a line that looks way off, like this Packers line obviously was, you can assume that we’ll fix it so that it’s in line with the market. Or, you could just ask us about it, like Dan did, to remove any possible doubt.

      5. The Packers vote was a loser either way! Come on, man!

      • CLEVTA

        Pete thanks for taking the reins on this. You and Mike B are appreciated. We know you are swamped with the new firm and baby and time is squeezed. If you ever need help on stuff like this Im more than willing to offer up help. Just let me know

  • steelers for the allplay.

    • raiders and will essay falcons manana.

  • bupalos

    JAX
    NYG
    CLE

    Not seeing any number on the Packers. Guessing it’s probably like +6.5 but who can tell? Too bad, that would be a great game to vote on.

    • bupalos

      pats in the AP.

  • trashycamaro

    Packers +3 over Panthers

    Vikings -10.5 over Bengals

    Cowboys -3 over Raiders

    Rams +2 over Seahawks

    Essay Ravens -7 over Browns Wow the Browns are bad. Really enjoyed the new GM going public and saying all the players drafted in the past 2 years are not “real players”. As if morale was not bad enough now the head of the organization is just letting fly to everyone that all the players are terrible. That’s got to be a fun locker room these days.

    But, hey, Josh Gordon is back! Thankfully he is going to be a restricted free agent so the Browns can keep him aroung for a year to see if he stays straight. And if he doesn’t, at least he can help boost that morale with his bag of goodies!

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Does anyone know the line for the Packers’ game?

  • pheasantpants

    Yesterday picks via direct submission to the Exec Com: Bears (L), Chiefs (W)

    All play: Pats -3
    Panthers -3
    Browns? to cover
    Falcons essay -6

    • pheasantpants

      Upon review I cannot pick six NFL games this week, so I will essay the Pats. Fair?

      • pheasantpants

        Dear Exec. Cmte. (I’m needy this week):

        I had previously used my skip in Week 5, and clearly did not submit a timely essay, so I believe my weekly score here should be two and a half. It looks like I may have been credited five points instead. Thank you and sorry for the sloppy voting.

  • Matt Borcas

    Patriots -3 over Steelers
    Bengals +10.5 over Vikings
    Browns +7 over Ravens
    Rams +2 over Seahawks

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Browns: Was rolling with essays but have hit the skids in the past few weeks with a few really painful losses. So let’s go with the Browns again! Winless teams do very well after week 10 and they certainly have been trying. Throw in a fake professional sports rivalry and an overrated Raven side and I will grab the points. Think there is a good chance the clowns finally get an outright win. Probably not though. Clowns for the essay.

  • Dave Borcas

    Eagles -7.5
    Cardinals +4
    Browns +7 its gonna happen, maybe
    Raiders +3
    Bengals +10.5
    Patriots -3 essay and all play
    I really need Tom Brady to have a big game for my fantasy football team. This pick may be more of a hope and prayer rather than reality. The Stiller are really tough at home. They seem to make and get all the breaks they need to win. They really do a good job defending the home turf. Now we have the Patriots coming off their worst performance of the year, on a short week. The pats have their secret weapons in Bill and Tom. Getting Gronk back after the suspension should really help. The Patriots receivers are getting healthy which could lead to a big day for To Brady (please). This game could turn into the last team with the ball for the win. The Stiller have a great weapon in Boswell if the game comes down to a kick at the end. Lets go Tom Brady!

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Essay: Oregon (L) couldn’t have been more wrong
    2. GB +5.5
    3. Steelers +3
    4. Niners -2
    5. Rams +2
    6. Washington -4

    • GB is +3. Keep it at that number or pick another one. Thanks.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Packers +5.5
    Browns +7 essay
    Pats-3
    Not sure why I do this to myself every week but I love the browns this week. 7 point home dog, being called out by their gm and they’ve been improving every week. I don’t think Baltimore has the weapons to put up a ton of points and I’m hoping kizer hits the throws he missed last week. I don’t think the browns win this week but the entire team is playing for a job.

  • Chris Magee

    rest of the picks
    all play: Steelers + 3
    49ers – 2
    seahawks – 2
    Essay: Packers 5.5
    First I want to confirm executive committee didn’t change line. Ok Aaron Rodgers is ready to go. He ran the scout team offense last week in practice. If this was 1996 he would have been playing the last 2 games. He is ready to go. Davante his boy jordy and his boy Cobb are all going to go ham. Expecting every route to be that much better knowing they are going to get the ball. 5.5 is just too many points with A-A-RON back. Panthers are going to score 2 and would love this to turn into a shootout. bunches of funchess and jordy compete for most touchdowns. We survive a few Cam Supermans and walk right thru the front door on this cover.

    • Chris Magee

      My provisional essay will be Redskins -4 if Packers 5.5 line is no longer valid and will resubmit my sheet.

      • GB is +3 so we’ll put you on the Redskins for essay unless you indicate otherwise.

        • Chris Magee

          I dodged a bullet!

        • Chris Magee

          just re-sent the sheet.

  • trashycamaro

    Ark st

  • TS_Butler

    Ark St. for 1 cheddar

    • TS_Butler

      Steelers +3 AP
      Jags -11
      Niners -2
      Rams +2
      Pack +5.5
      This line is currently at +3 so I’m going to do what a lot of people here have done and take the extra 2.5 points on the back of the Rodgers return. Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it’s wrong. The Panthers have been home all week after their huge win against the Vikes and Rodgers should be able to score enough to at least keep it close if not win outright.

      • Hey for the millionth time the Packers are +3 in this contest too. You’ll get them at this number unless you make another pick.

        • TS_Butler

          Got it, thanks

  • thatsfine

    Like everyone else needing to hit a few picks this week.
    Marshall +5.5
    MTSU +4
    Bears +5.5

    • thatsfine

      MTSU essay
      MTSU is a respectable team with Brent Stockstill behind center. Since he returned from an early season clavicle fracture, they are 3-1 with the only loss in 3OT. Before his injury he faced 2 Power 5 teams and led an upset of Syracuse. Simply, MTSU without him: 2-4, with him 4-2. Much respect to the 7-4 Arkansas State Red Wolves, they took Troy to the wire in the season finale. But the next time this season they beat a team with a winning record will be the first time. The Sun Belt is a garbage conference beyond Troy and Ark St, I like the Blue Raiders straight up here.

      • thatsfine

        Texans +11
        Steelers +3

        • thatsfine

          Eagles -7.5

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    The playoff push is on! Need a big slate this week, so here we go:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c711330dc454bd0020d812f99b8712cee6ac76bcf4dede06e993bcd6cf436fcb.jpg
    Boise State (+7) over Oregon: Lots of 3-point wins for me by the Broncos this year, so going to the well one more time against a Oregon team dealing with “issues.”
    Arkansas State (-3.5) over Middle Tennessee State: Been watching a lot of Sun Belt games this year, and I feel the conference is stronger than C-USA. Also, the Red Wolves pass the ball A LOT.
    Redskins (-4) over Cardinals: Cardinals are banged up and Kirk Cousins is still playing for a contract.
    Falcons (-6) over Buccaneers: After beating the Saints, the Atlanta defense will take down Tampa Bay for the second time in four weeks.
    All-Play: Patriots (-3) over Steelers: Of course, Kenny Britt will have a huge day. In an offense versus offense match-up, I think the Steelers will miss Shazier more than the Patriots miss Branch.
    Essay: Vikings (-10.5) over Bengals: I find myself generally picking favorites in betting, but I hate, hate HATE picking teams with double digit differentials. Especially when they are less than average offenses. So why buck the trend now? Well, rather than me telling you I was in Jacksonville last week and had a conversation with a lobster farmer, I’ll just list the Cincinnati injury report: OUT: Adam Minter, Adam Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Nick Virgil. And that’s just the OUT members of the defense. That doesn’t include the Questionables or the Offense either. Cincinnati may have called last week’s loss “embarassing,” but Mike Zimmer isn’t going to care about friendships when he has to worry about wrapping up the NFC North before Aaron Rodgers gets the Packers back into this thing.

  • oxr

    Oh crap there are college games today. Can’t bring myself to pick either with or against the Ducks so let’s stake a biscuit on… Arkansas State -4 over Mid Tennessee State in the *shuffles paper* Raycom Camelia Bowl?

    • it’s the new go-daddy bowl.

      • oxr

        I think I preferred the old one.

    • oxr

      Bills -3? over Dolphins
      Packers +3? over Panthers
      49ers -2 over Titans

      All-Play Steelers +3 over Pats – never been less excited to take the better team at home with the points

      Essay
      Rams +2 over Seahawks – The more I read about Seattle’s litany of
      defensive injuries – apparently they can still win without a secondary
      but come on, this is getting ridiculous – the more I feel compelled to
      pick the road team in the rematch. Latest update is that Bobby Wagner
      will suit up but probably won’t be 100%. The Rams are still the best
      team by DVOA on the year and this is a significant game for them, so
      getting points is pretty enticing. Picking against Seattle
      at home has not typically worked out well for me in the past but they’ve shown vulnerabilities to eg the Falcons and I don’t exactly
      love any of the other games either, so here’s hoping LA can come up
      with something to slow Russell Wilson down a bit.

  • Matt Lawrence

    1. WKU -6.5
    2. Chargers -1.5

    • Matt Lawrence

      3. Oregon -7

      • Matt Lawrence

        4. Packers +5.5
        5. Steelers +3
        6. Seahawks -2**
        I’m just not totally sold on the Rams yet. Don’t get me wrong, they have some good wins this season, and they’re offense has played well this year, but they’re not quite ready to take over the Seahawks as the team to beat in the NFC West. The Rams were averaging 35 points per game on the season going in to their last matchup against the Seahawks. In that matchup they scored 10 points and Goff looked like he was a rookie all over again. Now the Rams will have to deal with the 12th man, playing on the road in Seattle.

        • GB is +3. Keep it at that number or pick another one. Thanks.

  • Essay: Boise State +7 vs. Oregon
    Bottom line: Oregon players have been abandoned by Willie and they will play like the sad little orphaned players that they are. Imagine being in a relationship that you weren’t sure about in the first place, but you were convinced and gave it your all. And things were going fine, not great, but not bad, and you thought you would both stay together and improve, but then the other person who convinced you to come to Oregon, I mean, to be in the relationship, is the one who jumps ship. For Florida State. It’s demoralizing. Not to mention Freeman is opting out to ensure he’s not injured ahead of the draft…just perpetuating the feeling the rest of the players have of being left behind, with Cristobal to babysit. Yikes.

    Lions -5.5 vs. Bears
    Packers +5.5 vs. Panthers
    Raiders +3 vs. Cowboys
    AP: Steelers +3 vs. Pats

  • John

    Oregon -7 to Boise State

    • John

      49ers -2 to the Titans
      Eagles -7.5 to the Giants
      Packers +5.5 to the Panthers
      All play- Pats -3 to the Steelers
      Essay- Seahawks -2 to the Rams

      • John

        essay- Seahawks -2 to the Rams
        this is labeled the ‘biggest regular season game in the last decade for the Hawks”
        they play at home
        and they have a QB that is in the MVP title (ok- so he won’t win, but he’s in the conversation)

        I think they show up today.

  • ChuckKoz

    1) Lions -5.5 (Sat)
    2) Chargers -1.5 (Sat)
    3) Colorado St -5.5 (Sat)
    4) Raiders +3 (Sun Night)
    5) Falcons -6 (Mon Night)
    Essay) Browns +7
    Well, my optimism from the Dorsey thing faded pretty quickly. Dude talks like a neanderthal about being a “football guy” and I guess I could tolerate some of that. But I really think the “real football players” thing was just such a dick thing. What is the point? And maybe just clarify it? Or maybe spin the positives, like how Sashi (ad every other person in the management that is still in the building) left some decent talent and the team just needs a QB, another playmaker, a real free safety, and some time to develop. But no, this guy seems like a hard-headed dick that will be the type of personality to continue dysfunction. Hope I am wrong.
    
As for the game, the non “real players” have been battling and I assume they will continue to. Kizer is bad, but looks better with what seem me to be “real WRs.” And while the DBs are way banged up, good news is that Flacco has been trash so they hopefully don’t exploit too bad.
    Ravens 16, Browns 13

    • from your description i know this guy and he sounds the sort of man jimmah would hire as a douchey district manager who makes life miserable for the poor slobs running shitty truck stops in the maryland panhandle. ive seen the like in walmart market and regional managers.
      sam walton was just a hustlin guy, not a genius. successful to be sure but hardly worthy of the cult of personality that pervades the org. jimmah seems cut out of the same cloth although without the self-made success and more entralled with his own genius. and if the personality tells and squirrely (SCHEINER) hires werent enough evidence of this appraisal consider what grown ass 50+ man shows up on the practice field in a t-shirt? one who is so self-absorbed that he thinks he looks good in it. we will fail so long as jimmah is in charge.

      not for nothing but we can already see his ‘real football players’ talk is jive because isn’t josh gordon starting this week? real tough guy cutting kenny britt,, talk to me when you cut isaiah crowell and good luck competing with a roster of 22 joe schoberts.

      • ChuckKoz

        yeah, pretty much.

        i suppose with him it will be a quick path to be the Chiefs (minus the good coach). but unless this guy nails the QB thing in this draft, we will be no more than a 8-8 team……then again, that doesn’t sound so bad at this point

  • Chargers, WKU, Ark St for starters.

  • CLEinMSP

    Marshall +5.5
    Troy -7
    Chiefs +1.5
    Seahawks -2
    Steelers +3 (All Play)
    Niners -2 (Essay)

    Two teams going in different directions. The Niners look good with the Jimmy G and Shanny pairing. They are finishing the season well, and should be an interesting team next year. The Titans are sitting in an AFC wild card spot, and they stink. Not sure what is going on with Mariota, but the Titans offense is not clicking at all. Looking at their schedule, there is actually a chance the Titans could lose the rest of their games and miss the playoffs altogether. The Titans secondary has been bad all year, so I think Shanny will open it up a bit and the Niners cruise at home.

  • Nick

    Western Ky -6.5 vs Georgia St.
    49ers -2 vs Titans
    Chiefs +1.5 vs Chargers
    Jags -11 vs Texans
    Steelers +3 vs Pats
    Lions -5.5 vs Bears***Essay

    Safe to say that if you’ve been playing Cheddar for a while, you have a couple of teams throughout each season or seasons that are bad luck for you, and always fail to cover when you pick them on either side. The Bengals and Lions are those teams for me.

    Thus making it more impressive that I was on the right side of the Bears beat down last week over the Bengals. It’s the right time to slay these demons, using the Bears as my sword, I will take the other side and make the Lions my essay pick. They are wearing color rush uniforms today and these supposedly look great. These uni’s will give the Lions players great confidence and reason to score many touchdowns today. At 7-6, they are 2-5 in home games this year, which sounds like the most Detroit thing ever. Both teams coming off nice wins last week. Hopefully Stafford won’t wait until the last drive to win the game. Bears do not have enough firepower to stay with Lions over 4 quarters.

  • CSU -5.5. I see some of the wiseguys (and girls) below riding Marshall. I agree with a lot of the sentiment I’m reading, but Marshall hasn’t beat a single team above .500. This spread is now at -3.5, and I wish I had that value here, but I’m feeling even better about jumping on it prior to gametime. Chase Litton has turned it over a LOT down the stretch.
    ARKANSAS STATE -4. They score more points.
    BILLS -3. I don’t see a spread here, so if it’s a different number, please let me know. I don’t see two great Jay Cutler performances in a row. I hope it snows again.
    WASHINGTON -4. West coast team traveling east with nothing to play for. Kirk Cousins still playing for $30m a year.
    PATRIOTS -3. Tried to envision Belichick’s boys laying a second egg back-to-back, and can’t. And my Fantasy Football championship hopes ride on Leveon Bell having a shit game. I’d prefer not to root against myself.
    $$$ RAMS -2. $$$
    On a lot of levels I was trying to talk myself out of this pick, because Seattle manages to somehow give themselves a shot at winning every single game at home. But they’re so banged up. They lost a really physical game last week in the opposite corner of the country and had some mental blunders in the final minutes. Seemingly, the Rams did much of the same, but at home against Philly-and without losing their minds in garbage time. No science to this one for me beyond the NFL’s highest scoring offense trying to make a statement in the final weeks of the season, win the division and set themselves up for a shot at a first round bye.

  • Brian

    Arkansas St -4
    Western Kentucky -6.5
    Oregon -7
    Redskins -4
    Pats -3
    ***Essay***
    Troy -7

    I dont know too much about Troy, but i do know that they’ve beaten a couple decent teams this season. I’ve also come to realize that even though North Texas is 9-4 they only have 3 wins against teams with a winning record. On top of that, they have looked miserable against good teams as well. They are 0-4 and losing by an average of 4 touchdowns against good football teams. They also have a hard time keeping good teams out of the endzone. So i could see them giving up 40-50 points and Troy’s defense hasnt given up more than 24 all year. This could get the bowl games off to an ugly start. Troy Trojans for 3 points in a blowout

  • cwonder23

    Chargers -1.5
    Lions -5.5
    Marshall +5.5
    Packers +5.5
    Jets +16
    All Play/Essay: Steelers +3

    Brady gets Gronk back, which is definitely meaningful considering last weekend. But, the Steelers are rolling and Big Ben is at home where he usually thrives. Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell are gonna eat on Sunday. This spread number seems right to me, but I think it should be flipped to Steelers -3. With home field, they are implying that the Pats would be 6 point faves, which I don’t agree with. I think the Steelers lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs and win a close one tomorrow. Steelers 28 – Pats 24.

    • cwonder23

      You can keep me on Packers +3

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Western Kentucky
    Marshall

    rest later

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      Titans plus 2
      Steelers plus 3
      Giants plus 7.5

      Chargers

      Team of destiny? It’s certainly possible after they started 0-4. Rivers is really good, the pass rush is really good and Keenan Allen is absolutely on a tear. The Chiefs have kind of crashed back to earth. They must really miss John Dorsey. Anyway, the Chargers always play close games but I feel confident with the ball in 17’s hands, and I just think they have too many playmakers and too much momentum to lose here. KC at night won’t be easy, but the Chargers are favored for a reason I am guessing.

  • Hawkaholic

    Super Chargers of Los Angeles -1.5
    Oregon -7 per Lucy’s suggestion
    Aaron Rodgers +5.5
    Ravens -7
    AP: Pats -3
    Essay: North Texas +7 – I think i found the correct choice in the drop down but not 100% sure

    Classic offense vs defense battle. Troy definitely has the better resume, they beat LSU earlier this year and have the 11th ranked scoring defense in the country, fair impressive. I had my first run in with North Texas this year probably like most others, with that championship game two weeks ago against UCF. I came away very impressed with North Texas’s QB in that game, made a lot of good decisions and a lot of great throws. I haven’t seen a minute of Troy play this year and i am so far down in the Cheddar Bay standings i am going to take a flyer on this one. The decision is based purely on how fun the North Texas offense is and i trust mid tier program offenses over mid tier program defenses. Plus North Texas has played Iowa in recent years and were led by a former Hawk Dan McCarney, not to mention the great Hayden Fry coached at North Texas before coming to Iowa.

  • HitTheHorns

    Essay Chiefs +1.5
    This is the part of the season Andy Reid does best; its the next part that is normally his undoing. This just seems like such an obvious Chargers play with KC being a home dog that I am going to go the other way. Alex Smith has looked better the past two weeks and KC still has dynamic playmakers at all skill positions. Also regarding coaching – Anthony Lynn has certainly not yet proven to always make the right call late in games. Kicking game still a mess for SD (Travis Coons). The Chargers are coming for this division, no doubt. Maybe getting punched early will make KC go to Patrick Mahomes, which would seem to be their best move for playoff success.
    Marshall +5.5, Lions -5.5, Jets +16, Pats -3, Falcons -6

  • 1. Marshall +5.5

    • 2. Redskins -4
      3. Ravens -7
      4. 49ers -2
      5. All-Play: Pats -3
      6. Essay: Falcons -6

      Essay: Falcons -6

      This Monday night isn’t going to go like last Monday night. That being, the better team isn’t going to lay an egg. Hell, even if Atlanta comes to Tampa and lays an egg, I’m not sure Tampa Bay can take enough advantage of that to cover, let alone win. Tampa has a bevy of injured defensive players. Julio torched this team last time they played. Those two things are not going to mix well for match up number two. Additionally, Falcons are still playing for something and, in a sense, the Bucs are as well, but those two things are very different. Falcons have playoff aspirations, while the Bucs are looking at where they’ll be in the draft. Of course every player wants to go out there and win the game, but I don’t see the Bucs being able to match the focus and execution of the Falcons on Monday night.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Marshall +5.5 (essay): Marshall D is excellent ranking 21st in def yds/play as opposed to a really bad D in CSU (107th). CSU D is also 114th in allowing explosive plays, while Marshall sits at a solid 32nd. Marshall QB Chase Litton is a 3 yr starter and should do just fine moving the ball against this garbage defense. Marshall has only lost 2 gms by >5 and one was at Nc St. CSU has zero good wins and they did not beat a single team > .500. I don’t see any reason why this line is so high. Thundering Herd wins outright

    • CLEVTA

      2. Skins -4
      3. Eagles -7.5
      4. NE -3
      5. GB +5.5
      6. Tampa +6

      • TA: GB is +3. Keep it at that number or pick another one. Thanks.

        • CLEVTA

          Ok I’ll keep it

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Essay: Oregon -7

    The Ducks have their QB back and that’s why I’m rolling with Oregon for my essay. I know Freeman, a Heisman quality RB, is sitting out but Oregon is a much better squad with Herbert. Herbert is going to have a DAY making the Freeman news a non factor. Boise continues to have a good recording year after year but we all know they don’t play anyone. I don’t think there is anyway Boise will be able up to keep with Oregon’s scoring attack. Ducks roll!

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Marshall +5.5
    Chiefs +1.5

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      Oregon -7

  • Jeff Smith

    Western Kentucky -6.5
    Oregon -7
    Marshall +5.5
    Raiders +3
    49ers -2 (essay) – will write up shortly
    Steelers +3 (all play)

    • Jeff Smith

      Essay
      49ers -2

      The Jimmy G led 49ers have had a recent resurgence. Good news for the Browns as they can now win 2 games and still receive the 1st pick in the draft (I hope you can sense the sarcasm here as the Browns are destined for 0-16). The Titans play very poorly on the road and after scoring 8 mins into the game in Arizona, they were blanked over the last 52 minutes of the game. Mariota seems to be a bit banged up and not quite himself. Typically, you would see major progression out of a QB like Mariota, but I just have not seen it. Shanahan should have a fun time drawing up some plays to expose the awful Titans secondary. The 49er defense has also been been holding their own, which should fare well against a struggling Titans O on the road. The Titans also have to travel out west which never helps. Give me Jimmy G and Shanahan in this one.

  • jdoepke

    Pats -3 (AP)
    Bears +5.5
    Chargers -1.5
    Marshall +5.5
    Bills – 3.5 (or 3 or whatever this line is)

    Essay: Vikings -10.5
    First and foremost I’m out of this contest this year because my essays have been awful and I lost my POTY. I’ve given up hope. Secondly, I’m a Bengals fan. But I’ve watched a team that has quit and a franchise in desperate need of change. Vikings need a win to stay in contention for home field advantage, the Bengals need to lose so that they can get a new coach and they’re decimated with injuries. Vikings roll 31-10

  • GRRustlers

    Week 16 Picks

    Lions (-5.5) over Bears
    WKY (-6.5) over GA State
    Jets (+16) over Saints
    49ers (-2) over Titans

    Patriots (-3) over Steelers

    Essay Pick

    My new theory that I will be introducing is that teams that have to play 16 road games in a season should never be a road favorite in a night game in Kansas City. All of this Chargers dark horse nonsense is going to be really amusing when they drag themselves back to San Diego the first week of January since I am assuming they have some nice golf courses there. I still believe in KC and if you would ask Pittsburgh or NE who they really want to avoid in January it’s not going to be the Jacksonville team that has never been there before. KC wins out and wins the West starting Saturday night.

    Chiefs (+1.5) over Chargers

  • Dave Kolonich

    Troy (-7)
    Buffalo (Pick)
    SF (-2)
    Carolina (-5.5)
    AP – New England (-3)
    Essay – Baltimore (-7)

    My Browns Fan-o-meter has run low since basically the Shurmur/Weeden era. 1-29 barely even registers. And even though Jimmah is keeping the same pyramid scheme where everyone reports to him, I am kind of intrigued by John Dorsey. At this point, give him a shot with this latest “most important draft ever.” After all, I still think this team is six players away from competing weekly. Once again, QB, WR, T, Pass Rusher, CB, FS and we’re looking at maybe 8 wins. It’s a start.

    Of course, this weekend – the Ravens need a win, Flacco has looked decent lately and always murders the Browns, the Browns are down to corners who would barely make most good teams’ practice squads and Hue……oh Hue.

    • Carolina is -3. I assume if you liked them at 5.5 you’ll like them at 3 but just wanted to let you know.

      • Dave Kolonich

        Thanks for the heads up. I’m good with them – especially now knowing they won by 7.

  • Peter Wendler

    ***ESSAY*** Eagles -7.5 @ Giants

    Philly has everything to play for and the Giants have NOTHING to play for. McAdoo is McAgone, but so is Wentz (what a blow to the NFL). However, I think the crowd will be slim, the Eagles will come out with determination on ‘D’ and allow <14 points to a garbage Giants offense. Foles wants to get a job somewhere and will do enough to make that a possibility. Don't see this one being close… Fly Eagles Fly 28-10.

    2.) Lions -5.5 vs Bears
    3.) Chiefs +1.5 vs. Chargers
    4.) Ravens -7 @ Browns
    5.) North Texas +7 vs Troy
    AP.) Steelers +3 vs. Pats

  • Chris Magee

    Saturday picks:
    Oregon -7
    KC Chiefs +1.5

  • Jmacdaddio

    Boise St +7
    Colorado St. -5.5

    Steelers +3
    Niners -2
    Panthers -5.5
    Browns +7 (Essay)

    I’ve been in this league for too long, since now I’m essay-ing the Browns. I think something spread through the computer, maybe flashing pulses from the 603 Brown site which in turn cause me to make bad choices. Mortgaging the house to scoop up Beanie Babies comes to mind (they’re coming back, you’ll see! Bitcoin, schmitcoin). The Browns are due for a win, or at least a cover. They were in it vs. Green Bay last week, and consecutive home games will help generate some focus by avoiding the travel distraction. I’m not high on the Ravens this year. They’re inconsistent – one week a strong showing against a contender, the next week they’re blown out by a Pop Warner team. 7 points spotted to a team that looks like they’re figuring out a few things is too tempting to pass up.

    No Play: Cards at Redskins. That’ll stop the NFL’s ratings slide… not.

    • Jmac ……. I’m sorry

      • Jmacdaddio

        That makes two of us. Unless I hit the essay.

        • As noted above, Carolina is -3. I assume if you liked them at 5.5 you’ll like them at 3 but just wanted to let you know.

          • Jmacdaddio

            Thanks! I’ll keep it…. I’m all about lowering the bar

  • LittleBallofHate

    One biscuit picks — Oregon (-7), Lions (-5.5), Niners (-2), Bucs (+6)
    All Play — Pats (-3).
    Essay
    Vikings (-10.5) vs. Bengals
    It’s a matchup between Mike Zimmer (the coach Bengals fans prayed would be promoted to head coach if only Marvin could have been bounced up to GM) vs, Marvin Lewis (the coach who should have resigned after the 2015 playoff loss to Pittsburgh). Minnesota would like to clinch the division in front of their home fans while Cincinnati looks like it is just playing out the string while being decimated by injuries.

  • Jaxbch Josh

    Steelers +3-Pitt at home and is due. NE I’m sorry just not buying them anymore. Brady looked old, Bell Brown, Big Ben….Give me give me
    Browns +7= Reemergence of Josh Gordon and Cory Coleman, no Jimmy Smith, gut wrenching loss to Steelers, Cle may not win, but I think keeps it close at home
    Oak Raiders +3 Lots of talent underachieving, Dallas emotional win last week NYG, They get zeke back next week vs Seattle. Cowgirls overlook raiders
    Packers +3- Arodgers >Cam
    Saints -16- BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK
    ESSAY:

    Give me Jags -10.5- Ill be at the game, and I think with HOU 3rd string Qb, that Jag pass rush and secondary are Gonna FEAST!! Give me 3-4 turnovers and a defensive TD, coupled with a conservative game plan for Garbage Blake and I see a 27-10 game. I know the essay is short this week, but lots going on with Xmas holidays. Happy Holidays Cheddar Biscuits!

  • Art Briles Hirer

    Patriots -3 over Steelers (All-play)
    Bears +5.5 over Lions (Essay)
    Boise St +7 over Oregon
    Ravens -7 over Browns
    Cowboys -3 over Raiders
    Falcons -6 over Bucs

    • Art Briles Hirer

      Detroit media has completely turned on Lions HC Jim Caldwell. Usually these things happen in concert with the fans, but for the most part, fans are still supportive of Caldwell.

      I think the divergence is explained by two different points. First, Caldwell, for his faults, is unquestionably the best coach the Lions have had since Wayne Fontes was fired. Without trying to compare him and Fontes (they are remarkably similar), Caldwell is definitely better than Bobby Ross, Gary Moeller, Marty Mornhinweg, Steve Mariucci, Dick Jauron, Rod Marinelli, or Jim Schwartz. In the 90s, Lions fans were less charitable of coaches who were decent but couldn’t get over the hump. Now, their expectations are much lower.

      The other point is that, compared to most NFL head coaches, Caldwell lacks some basic competencies, compounded by the fact that he a total condescending jerk to the media at all times. The is one of the worst aspects of the NFL, and it’s probably traceable to Bill Belichick. There is no doubt in my mind that NFL coaches think that Belichick’s crusty nature is some sort of competitive advantage. Surely, Caldwell can credit his tight-lipped approach for the element of surprise he achieves when he fields 9 defensive players.

      When a coach is in the .550 win % range, the question is always whether he is achieving that with below-average to average talent, or whether he is holding back an above-average roster. I’m with the media: he’s in the latter category. Expect him to blow up the remnants of the Lions’ playoff hopes with a loss today.

  • Capitalgg

    Point of order: I switched my Bengals pick to Panthers after informed of line discrepancy. Please credit me my valuable cheddar point.

    [All-play] Steelers +3 v Patriots
    1. Marshall +5.5 v Colorado St
    2. Chiefs +1.5 v Chargers
    3. Cowboys -3 @ Raiders

    • Capitalgg

      4. Western Kentucky -6.5 v. Georgia St.

      Gotta spit this out quick and I need a big hit here. Rams +2 at Seattle. While Seattle has been playing well lately, the Rams have been the better team this year. Goff has been playing at a very high level and theydefense has been very good.

      Bottomline, I feel the Rams are the better overall team and I’m catching points. Any time you can get the better team and catch points, you gotta do it. Continuing to play underdogs this week as regression with the ‘dogs continues.

  • Will take the Colts for one in tonight’s battle of the NFL dumpster horses.

    • North Texas +7 over Troy
      Boise St. +7 over Oregon
      Colorado St. -5.5 over Marshall

      • I’ll follow Hawkaholic and make the North Texas Mean Green my vote of the week. This line looks funny, down to 6.5 from 7 IRL despite 97% of the public on Troy, who beat LSU and hasn’t let anyone score more than 25 points all year. Hawkaholic says North Texas’s offense is really fun and that their quarterback makes good decisions and great throws, which sounds good to me. And I just found this article about how special their special teams are:

        https://theathletic.com/184590/2017/12/14/new-orleans-bowl-north-texas-special-teams-troy/

        I’m not sure how Agnes missed this, but folks, this squad is “first in Conference USA in blocked kicks, blocked punts, punt returns and field goal percentage; second in blocked kicks allowed; third in net punting, punt return defense and field goals per game.”

        Also, head coach Seth Littrell gives special teams coordinator Marty Biagi (a former punter and kicker at Marshall) “about four-to-five periods of practice to work strictly on special teams.”

        Is that a lot? Sounds like a lot!

        “Biagi estimates that walk-ons and true freshmen account for up to half of all players he uses across different special teams units. Together, they subscribe to the notion that a game-changing play awaits them each time they step on the field.”

        Thus, I subscribe to the notion that the Mean Green’s special teams are an undervalued factor in this matchup, and that a game-changing play can keep this one within 7 points.

        Roll damn North Texas Mean Green one time for old Frowner.

        (Fun fact: Back when the University of North Texas was called North Texas State Normal College, “[m]ost of the athletic clubs on campus were named the ‘Normal Boys’ or the ‘Normal Girls,’ except for a few rebellious women’s basketball clubs who named themselves. The ‘Dandy Doers,’ ‘Haughty Hits,’ ‘Limber Lassies,’ ‘Militants,’ and the ‘Suffragettes’ dribbled their way to glory (or, hopefully not, to doom) on old dirt courts with their self-appointed monikers.”)

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Colts +2.5
    Colorado st -5.5
    Steelers +3
    Raiders +3 essay soon
    Rams +2
    Bears +5

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      I never got a chance to write an essay so cancel raiders and I’ll write a MNF essay

      • agnesbojaxhiu

        Here is the best I can do for a Buccaneers essay. I don’t think I’ve ever voted for the Buccaneers but the only Superbowl that I can remember watching before becoming a Frowns groupie was an all pirate game in which I won a square. Since I missed my pirate vote last night I thought I’d try for another tonight. The Buccaneer’s quarterback is not very good but a little research shows he loses every game in which he throws an interception. A little research also shows that Falcons are tied for the team with receiving the fewest interceptions. Considering TB has almost no rushing touch downs this year, an interception-less game might just give them a win. Good times.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    **** Broncos -2.5 ****

    • actovegin1armstrong

      **** Aqib Talib and/or Bradley Roby will stop my guy T Y Hilton and that will for the most part end the Indianapolis offense. Frank Gore will be expected to run roughshod over the Broncos injured tackles, and that could happen, but it is more likely that “roughshod” shall mean 3 yards and a blast by a linebacker, Most likely Todd Davis or Brandon Marshall.
      Doyle may do something special if the linebackers are stacked inside and the safeties are unnecessarily concerned with deep throws to the receivers, but I doubt it. The once vaunted Denver defense while being much maligned as of late still has plenty of talent. I will go with the talented once imposing defense over an uninspired and under manned Colts team waltzing their way to a top five pick. A pick that shall most assuredly be a lineman from Notre Dame. The quarterback battle here while not exactly Big Ben v. Tom Brady will be an important aspect of this game as well. I like Jacoby Brissett more than Trevor Siemian, but Brissett has had a terrible case of “happy feet”, but still holds the ball anyway as of late. That is certainly not a winning combination. Trevor Siemian is a back up quarterback who is gradually learning to throw the ball to the correct color jersey or throw the ball away. What more can one ask from a quarterback?

      • actovegin1armstrong

        **** Broncos -2.5. win
        Chargers +1
        Boise +7
        Browns +7
        Raiders +3
        AP Steelers +3

        • actovegin1armstrong

          of course I meant
          Chargers -1.5

  • Is Carolina/Green Bay spread fair game?

    • Good question! Answer is NO! Carolina -3 is the official spread for that one.

  • Chris Magee

    Picking 1 of the bowl games is required for the week?

  • Troy Bunting

    All Play – Steelers +3 at home!
    Oregon -7 : I really hope LaGarrette Blount is in attendance and runs out onto the field and knocks another Boise player da f*** out
    Troy -7 : Took them at a POTW in one of the Powder 5 conference championships. They did not disappoint.
    Packers +5.5: Line as moved higher despite Rodgers comeback. I think he comes out slingin.
    Redskins -4: Too cold for Arizona to have any fight in this game, no playoffs, no warmth no win

    Essay: Ravens -7
    Sunday night Baltimore put up arguably their best offensive showing of the year. If they hadn’t been playing the real big baller brand BBB – Ben/Bell/Brown, they would’ve walked away with an easy W. That being said, it took a field goal with time expiring for arguably the best team in the AFC to beat Baltimore. Baltimore is also in a playoff push and they always seem to come on strong towards the end of the year and in the playoffs. The Browns are……. we’ll just leave it at that. The Browns are. Harbaugh, the revitalized youth in the backfield and the staunch D make the Ravens at least 10 pt favorites.

    • As noted above, Packers are +3. Keep it at that number or please pick another. Thanks.

      • Troy Bunting

        Keep it

  • Petefranklin

    If you’ve been picking against the Clowns every week, you should be proud of yourself! I bit the bullet (plus the hook) and talked shit to my Packer friends expecting an OT loss by three. We saw the reality, Hue sucks, Bountyman prolly needs to get purged, and this team will somehow eff up another draft by not signing Cousins or trading for Smith and drafting a not ready for primetime QB #1 overall. I can’t believe I actually split my streaming time between the Bills and the corpse that is the Browns. Both teams had similarities with some questionable officiating that keeps playoff teams involved screwing the losers. C’est la vie.

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