Wk 15, NO ALL PLAY

NOTE: The Bears/Bengals line is Bengals -6.5, not PK as reflected in the Scores and Odds PDF below. We can only assume that’s a typo by Scores and Odds, as everywhere else shows this case opened at Bengals -7 and is now down to -6.5. Sorry for any confusion.

Good evening good Cheddars. No all-play this week and the compulsory college pick is waived, though how can you not load up on Army/Navy in spite of the fact that the primary competition presented by the game is between Nike versus Under Armour and endlessly predictable tweets on Navy’s cool helmets and/or Army’s bold numbering font?

Download (PDF, Unknown)

  • bupalos

    If only people would put as much effort into their U.S. America politics votes as I do my football votes!

    Are there enough games left? Indeed there are!

    Eagles
    Ravens
    Chargers
    Jets
    Doll Fins****
    Sea Chickens.

  • trashycamaro

    Seattle +2.5 over Jaguars

    Panthers +3 over Vikings

    NYJ -2 over Broncos

    Eagles +2.5 over Rams

    Steelers -4.5 over Ravens

    Packers -3 over Browns If I was doing real essays there is no way I would be essaying or likely picking this game. There is so much unknown…but the Browns ATS records is just about as dismal as their IRL record that might as well (says the guy basically in last place).

    Last week for my essay I had to do like a real essay talking about stats etc. and thought I might have to do that for the rest of the year. Then, the Browns clearly insane decision makers were at it again!

    Should Sashi have been fired? Not sure, but it’s fine, I’m not going to pick up for the guy. Despite plenty of competence (i.e. acquiring picks, drafting actual NFL players, etc.) there is plenty of incompetence (McCarron-gate, passing on Wentz and Watson, Britt, etc.).

    What I am sure about is that a three headed monster of Podesta, Dorsey, and Jackson all reporting directly to ownership is INSANE. Especially when one of those people is Hue.

    Some Hue greatest hits: 1. “I didn’t win a power struggle with Sashi” 2. “I didn’t hire an o-coordinator because he would be fired” 3. Back stabbing the crap out of Tom Cable in Oakland (http://www.mercurynews.com/2010/09/22/inman-hue-jacksons-words-undermine-raiders-coach-tom-cables-authority/) 4. Getting Andy Dalton to overperform with a great supporting cast…except the playoffs 5. “I didn’t hire an o-coordinator because he would be fired” – I mean really how do any of the offensive players feel about a quote like that, seriously. The GD Jets turned it around with a QB Jackson had LAST YEAR and are competent on offense with arguably less talent.

    Anyway, I don’t live in the Cleveland media markets anymore so I am sure those of you who do are sick of hearing this stuff.

    Jackson needs to go. So do the Haslams.

  • Matt Borcas

    Eagles
    Browns
    Colts
    49ers
    Redskins

  • Matt Lawrence

    1. Raiders
    2. Panthers

    • Matt Lawrence

      3. Chargers -6
      4. Cardinals +3
      5. Ravens +4.5
      6. Seahawks +2.5**
      This line makes zero sense to me, which hopefully doesn’t mean I’m on the wrong side of things. I understand the Jaguars have a dominant defense, but Russell Wilson is one of the best QB’s in the NFL and he continues to make big plays week in and week out. More importantly, isn’t the QB for the Jaguars still Blake Bortles? I understand the Seahawks’ defense has not been all that great this year, but come on….Blake Bortles laying points against a team like Seattle?? No thanks. I’ll take the points here.

  • Jeff Smith

    Jags -2.5
    Chiefs -4
    49ers +3
    Steelers -4.5
    Vikings -3
    Patriots -11 (essay)

    Essay Play
    Patriots -11

    Well, Tom Brady and Bill love to show up for prime time games. Normally, I would say this is a look ahead game for the Patriots considering they go to Pittsburgh next Sunday, but they had to put the Pats on Monday Night. The Dolphins have been somewhat of a joke this year and I don’t think that putting them in the prime time slot will be much help for this struggling team. It surely took an atrocious Broncos team for the Dolphins to look like a decent squad last week. I have a feeling that this will be one of those games where you easily lose interest by half-time and if that’s the case, I will be perfectly content. I’ll take Tom Brady in the Monday Night slot in this one.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Jets
    Bears
    Packers
    Chargers
    Cardinals

    Carolina +3

    Vikes are good, and Case Keenum has proven a lot of us wrong, but this good? They’ve been on the road a while. The Panthers need the game and have a serious defense. Cam has been up and down, and he can be dangerously bad. But give me the full field goal in a battle of good defenses. Thinking (hoping) that home field matters here, too.

  • fyi, the normal word cloud app that i use is down thus the different mode in use. i cant find another one the allows me to provide a count of each word.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f9b3d72069201155452c1a2fe8d5f316d09f0059573a9d0e99893835205338a2.png

  • TS_Butler

    Jags -2.5
    Bills -3
    Browns +3
    Giants +4
    Niners +3
    Essay Vikes -3

    The main takeaway I had from watching the Bengals on Hard Knocks a few seasons ago was that Mike Zimmer was a pretty good coach. He came off as smart and likable but maybe that’s easy to do next to Marvin Lewis. I’ve had a soft spot in my heart for the Vikes since he went there and I trust that he’ll have his team ready to play today. Some say that the Vikes are “due” for a loss but I don’t really buy into that. If you have talent and show up and play hard each week you should always have a great chance to win. I don’t expect the VIkes to take the Panthers lightly in a big NFC game.

  • Troy Bunting

    Lions -2.5
    Seahawks +2.5
    Vikings -3
    Eagles +2.5
    Ravens +4.5
    Bears +6.5

    Essay – Eagles +2.5
    It’s that time of year again, snow is on the ground and the FCS playoffs are in full swing. The North Dakota State Bison are at it again and put a beating on Wofford Terriers. Notable NDSU Alum Carson Wentz is going to roll against the Southern California/Northern Mexico (or whatever their new domicile is) Rams. The hype train for the game is Wentz vs. Goff and I don’t see philly losing a second game in a row. Wentz is the differentiating factor. He wins game a la Russel Wilson. Goff won’t live up to the billing of the game, i’m calling my shot that he throws two picks in the game. Philly is too much for the Rams.

  • HitTheHorns

    Steelers essay, Arizona, Panthers, Eagles, Browns, Patriots.
    I get to watch this game with my in-laws who are staying with us for 6 weeks. They are in their 70s and wave their terrible towels on the couch. My mother in law has an irrational hate for William Gay, and doesn’t understand why Ben just doesn’t “stand up and throw it far.” The Shazier thing was terrible. The slower, smaller, white guy that replaced him was targeted repeatedly after the injury. But the Steelers adjusted, in game, and got out of Cincy with another win,. Pretty sure Pittsburgh clinches the AFC North with a win today. I hope the Steelers dust off James Harrison tonight. Since Martavis has been back, Ben has continued to trust him with 50/50 balls – Martavis has yet to break out, but he’s got an amazing chance tonight with no Ju Ju and the Ravens secondary beat up.

  • thatsfine

    Panthers +3 – Essay
    Seahawks +2.5
    49ers +3
    Bears +6.5
    Browns +3
    Broncos +2
    Feels like the right week to step in front of the Vikings train, winners of 8 in a row. They are laying points on the road in their second consecutive road game and this will make 5 of their past 6 on the road. Most of the talk is about the Vikings suffocating total scoring defense (17.0 ppg), but when you look at this stat and total yards the Panthers are right there with them (Vikings 289 yards/game, Panthers 19.8 ppg and 297 yards/game). The Panthers get back Greg Olson and Ryan Kalil this week, probably Devin Funchess as well. This also feels like the right time to go against Case Keenum, a great story this year. Over the last 3 games 5 TDs/0 INTs, he is overdue for a road performance regressing to the mean.

  • Falcons (W)
    Army (W)

    Before I get into my vote of the week, I’d like to take a moment to appreciate the fact that two members of this illustrious contest, who don’t know one another, will be at the Seahawks/Jags game in Jacksonville today. I gave a lot of thought to making the Jags my vote of the week this week based in part on this reason, and yet, like a passerby who can’t take his gaze off a trainwreck, I’m compelled to stay focused on our Cleveland Dumpster Babies for the second week in a row. Anyway, someone who knows Jax Beach Josh should send him the Cugs’ phone no (440.829.0838) so they can meet up for a beer or something. I don’t know Mr. Jax Beach, but from what I gather from his essays, he and Cugs would get along well. Anyway, as he would say,

    GIVE ME THE JAGS, BABY! But for one point only.

    Back to the Browns, as easy as it is to see them blowing this one (Amp. Esq. makes some fine points, below), this is a no-holds-barred kitchen sink game for Cleveland today. Hue-perbowl Sunday, folks. The GB defense is decimated with injuries, including pretty much their whole secondary, and, frankly, an 0-16 parade would be so much fun that it’s too hard to see the Browns—being the supernatural conflagration of disappointment and despair that they are—allowing it to happen. It’s never easy to win a Cheddar Bay title—let alone an unprecedented third—and I will go for three the hard way with my Brownies today (FML GHUA).

    Plus Dolphins and Baltimore Raisins to finish things off.

    Hope everyone has a terrific Sunday, especially Cugs and Jax Beach.

  • Hawkaholic

    Raiders +4
    Panthers +3
    Broncos +2
    Pats -11
    Texans -3
    Steelers -4.5

    More pressure on big ben today with the loss of Shazier…I believe he steps up to the challenge. Granted, he is in the twilight of his career and he hasn’t exactly been a pro bowler this year but today he pulls a big one out of his hat. Division rival, fighting for home field, cold, windy, Sunday night = Steeler Football. I like Big Ben to go for something like 240 with 3 td’s and no turnovers which will be more than enough to win this one by 5 points. In addition, Bell will get his carries and keep the Raven defense off balance for much of the game. Steelers 28, Ravens 17

  • LIONS -2.5. This spread has moved quite a bit since it opened, and the money has gone to Tampa. Making me feel really good. Stafford gonna go off.
    BILLS -3. No QB is as bad as Peterman was in his first quarter of play. Expect a run-heavy day from Buffalo, and Peterman to regress a bit to the mean-which would be a progression of sorts in this instance, and good for Buffalo.
    BENGALS -6.5. Trubisky has shown that he needs more snaps, something which I said from the beginning he needed at the collegiate level. Bengals aren’t out of it mathematically, but it’s essentially for pride at this point. My invitation to put in work together this offseason still stands.
    CHARGERS -6. I think LA scores 100. or close to it. Cousins literally counting the days…
    VIKINGS -3. Don’t be fooled, Vikings usually get to Cam A LOT. While my fantasy season hangs in the balance today with Cam at Rivers at the helm, I think the Vikings get their 9th straight, with ease.
    $$$ CARDINALS +3. $$$ Lots of yards through the air today for Arizona, and I think Tennessee struggles to move the ball. And this is an absolute must-win for the Titans if they want the division. Because after today, there’s a really good chance that the Jags win their final three games (Texans, @SF, @Ten), whereas I could see the Titans losing any or all of them (@SF, Rams, Jags). Tennessee has to be feeling the pressure, and the fact that they’re giving three points on the road is interesting, if not obscene. It’s driven fully by the opposing QB being a dumpster fire, but Gabbert has been serviceable in his three starts and I believe he can get it done today.

  • 3.5 of my 53.5 points are from NFL picks. To say I loathe this time of year in Cheddar is a grave understatement. If there are no fields to be stormed, there are no games to be watched. In the NFL, there are no homecoming games, no fake trophies for fake rivalries, no PJ Fleck to consistently wager against. The biggest spread is 11 points. What a snoozefest. I’m racking my brain to determine which backup quarterbacks will be in the zone today and who is just showing up for the paycheck. How blessed are we?

    Bears +6.5 vs. Bengals
    Seahawks +2.5 vs. Jaguars
    Chiefs -4 vs. Raiders
    Cowboys -4 vs. Giants
    49ers +3 vs. Texans

    *Essay* Broncos +2 vs. Jets
    The Jets can’t even execute a proper tank job. Now they’re stuck with McCown and Bowles for another year of mediocrity at best. I was certain the Browns would have a better year than the Jets; so you can see I’m an NFL authority. I understand that the Broncos have already begun clearing house but I think the airs of change will be the wind beneath the Broncos hooves. I just don’t think Siemien is that bad. He’s a smart cookie – he could have gone to Harvard. He’s calculating how to stay in this league for the maximum amount of time while receiving the least possible amount of concussions. I’m also a sucker for a homedog. Always.

  • Dave Borcas

    Bengals -6.5
    Jaguars -2.5
    Browns +3 (can they cover 2 weeks in a row? Lets see the Sashi effect today.)
    Redskins +6
    Cowboys -4
    Stillers -4.5 (essay) This game is very important to both teams. The Ravens are fighting for a wildcard playoff spot. The Stillers are fighting for home field throughout the playoffs. This game always seems to be close and low scoring. Big Ben has been prone to some big mistakes this year. He gets a big beak today with Jimmy Smith being suspended for PED’s this week. With the wind and cold whipping around Heinz field look to see Leveon Bell carries be north of 20. The Ryan Shazier injury should have the Stillers defense fired up to get him a game ball. The Ravens are a boring team, but I’ll take a boring win any day of the week. In the end the Yinzers all go home happy with the Stiller winning by 7.

  • CLEinMSP

    Bears +6.5
    Seahawks +2.5
    Steelers -4.5
    Chargers -6
    Pats -11
    Cardinals +3

    I’ve seen the Titans play the Browns on the road, and have caught bits and pieces of a few of their other games. How the hell is this team 8-4? The certainly don’t pass the eye test for me. Now they travel west for a couple weeks to take on AZ and SF. Not sure if the LT or Patrick Peterson will play for the Cards, but Gabbert has been ok, and I just don’t trust the Titans secondary against anyone. This will probably be an ugly game, so I will take the home team and the points. The Titans offense just doesn’t seem as advanced as it should be with Mariota in year 3.

  • oxr

    Eagles +2.5 over Rams
    49ers +3 over Texans
    Chargers -6 over Skins
    Jets -2 over Broncos
    Pats -11 over Dolphins ugggggh

    Essay Cardinals +3 over Titans – I am still a bit salty about that Derrick Henry 75-yard TD for the totally uncalled-for cover last week, and maybe that’s why I’m not being scared away by Blaine Gabbert and the sense of learned dread I always have picking the Cardinals. At least Tennessee will be down one (probably more significant) Derrick, as in their starting OLB. Unless the Titans’ offense mysteriously starts clicking (dear god spare us blaine gabbert having to lead a comeback) this has the potential to be a dull and low-scoring affair, and these teams are virtually tied in recency-weighted DVOA, so it’s hard not to like the home team and the points.

  • John

    Cards +3 to the Titans
    Eagles -2.5 to the Rams
    Pats -11 to the Dolphins
    Niners +3 to the Texans
    Bears +6.5 to the Bengals
    Essay Vikings -3 at Carolina

    • John

      Essay
      Vikings -3 at Carolina.
      Defense wins.
      can I stop there? or will Dan Whalen jump my bones for not writing more?

      Keenum has a lower ceiling, sure, but I think he has a higher floor too- meaning- he doesn’t do anything to risky.

      Cam- against this defense- is going to have to make some decisions- which will create turnovers.

      and just for fun- I’m starting Theilan over Diggs in my $$ Fantasy league- so that means Diggs will have 2 TDs.

      boom.

  • ChuckKoz

    1) Jets -2
    2) Cardinals +3
    3) R Words +6
    4) Rams -2.5
    5) Ravens +4.5
    Essay) Browns +3
    My misery in Cheddar this year is winding down and I am going down with the Browns ship. And the reason to feel good about this week is a reverse psychology situation. I picture if I were never a Browns fan, but say a kid from St Louis, I would see this line and probably bet my life savings on the Packers. A team with outside playoff shot (and in turn real SB prospects if they sneak in) playing a winless football team that just fired the GM? I would be on that shit so hard for the Pack. And like always, when i am that confident (like my failed POTY the past 2 years), I would lose. Because Vegas is smarter than me and everyone else (public money heavy on Packers). So for some dumb reason, Browns fuck around and this comes down to some field goal…..of course one that the browns will miss because they cut Cody Parkey (only 1 miss all year, 12 for 12 inside 50 this year with Dolphins) in favor of there shitty rookie kicker Zane Gonzalez (11 of 15 inside 50). 

    Packers 17, Browns 16

  • Nick

    Browns +3 vs Packers
    Dolphins +11 vs Pats
    Bears +6.5 vs Bengals
    Jags -2.5 vs Seahawks
    Jets -2 vs Broncos
    Eagles +2.5 vs Rams
    The pneumatic one heads back to LA to face off against the Rams. Carson will spend his time as he usually does. Studying the works of Tim Ferriss, eating lightly smoked sardines, writing poetry in the dark hours, and listening to duck calls before he goes to sleep. Phily fans cannot believe their luck in obtaining the next great QB. Phily fans in LA cannot believe their luck in having the chance to watch the anointed one twice this year. These fortuitous fans started tailgating days ago, ready to take over the stadium again just like they did on Oct. 1 against the Chargers. That game was won in such great fervor that the Eagles went ahead and won their next 7 games. Still some good juju here in LA for the Eagles.

  • 1. Lions -2.5
    2. Vikings -3
    3. Cowboys -4
    4. 49ers +3
    5. Pats -11
    6. Essay: Packers -3

    Like it or not, the Browns are going 0-16 and that parade is happening. This is tabbed as the last best chance for the Browns to win, but it’s really the last best chance for them to disappoint, which they are amazing at. Now, they can still lose and cover here, but I don’t see that happening. Packers are still playing for slim playoff hopes, while the Browns are playing to avoid joining the other 0-16 teams in history. Both would seemingly be great motivators, but give me the team looking to stay in contention and get their star QB back next week. Kizer’s ability to turn the ball over in critical times is sure to rear its ugly head, there’s no way Zane is making a FG over 30 yards today if the wind keeps going near the 20mph mark, and I’ll take any coaching staff over Hue and company at this point. One way or another the Packers find a way to win this game and do so by more than 3.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Pats -11
    Cards +3
    Broncos +2
    Panthers +3
    Jags -2.5
    Browns +3

    This is it this is the week!!! The packers are just bad without Rodgers. They have a worse qb than The Browns in Hundley. When is the last game the Browns had a better qb? The defense should really shine and create opportunities for the offense and score. Best of all an already weak packers defense has a ton of injuries in the fed backfield. Gordon will dominate let’s hope Kizer can put it on him. Last but not least we’ll find out if hue was really undermining the front offense and is capable of putting together a good game plan and make good in game decisions. Browns eat the W today.

  • I’ll go with my reliables — Vikes, Chargers, Jets, Rams — and throw in Bears and Browns. Let’s take the home dawg for the essay, that’s the Browns. Here’s the essay.

    I am not down with the firing of Sashi Brown. If there is one thing that marks new Browns failure since 1999 it is lack of management continuity. I need not review the list of GMs, head coaches, and owners to this audience… however the suspicion is that if it were a jersey on display in downtown Cle, it would be as impressive a meme. I love to wax on about the wisdom of Kevin Colbert or Ted Thompson but these guys have their share of misses too. Their records benefit from stable and non-insecure ownership. It seems to me Sashi is still in place if Deshone Kizer weren’t uniquely ill-prepared to be an NFL qb. It’s not Browns fault that the earlier regime squandered a first on Corey Coleman instead of an actual target such as Kelvin Benjamin and Brown didn’t pick Bark Mingo when even an NH blogger could see that Alec Ogletree would have a real NFL career contributing as a Mike backer on a playoff team. So what plagues the Browns is what always has: a man-child owner whose interests lie in signalling that he’s down with the cause whilst prepping his Nantucket mansion for the nouveau Christmas party circuit. Ahh.. who fucking cares.. back to the game at hand: the Browns defense has played balls out all year and suffer from being ground down by the fourth quarter. For some reason I think it’ll be different today. Just one full week of practice for Kizer with Gordon should be enough to keep a couple drives going for scores and crucially to keep the Packer offense off the field. Browns win outright.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Navy -3 L
    2. Browns +3 browns get that W today
    3. Ravens +4.5 like Ravens D hope joe can score
    4. Giants +4 : Dallas has been terrible without Zele. Eli back and coach gone.
    5. Wahington +6 look for a shoot out and like getting this many points
    6. Essay: Arizona +3

    Going all dogs in the NFL today. I feel like the titans are overrated and for some reason vegas hasn’t adjusted yet. Most people are going to look at this line and say Mariota > Gabbert and think Arizona stinks. However if you dig deeper you will find Arizona to be a nice home dog. Titans D is suspect (look for Larry to have a big day), Arizona’s rush D is top 5 and the coaching matchup is a no brainer Arians > Mularkey. Arizona gets the W!

  • Brian

    Seahawks +2.5 Russell Wilson is pretty good in december
    Steelers -4.5 They are just a better team than the ravens. Flacco is very mediocre
    Niners +3 They will keep getting better with Jimmy G learning more from shanahan
    Titans -3 Never trust Blaine Gabbert
    Browns +3 This is going to be the browns best chance at winning. Hundley and Kizer are pretty comparable
    *ESSAY*

    New England -11
    Yes this is the biggest spread of the weekend and yes they are on the road. However the patriots defense has been very good in the past month. They also have the best QB of all-time on their team. This leads me to believe that they will cover the 11 points. Jay Cutler is trash and always chokes against good teams. Belichick will draw up something to make Cutler look as bad as he truly is. But hey, if i could rob a team of $12 million for a year of below average to bad play….then i would do the same thing. Give me Tom Brady w/out gronk and i think they still cover the 11. This one could get ugly very early. 31-13 maybe worse. Give me another lobsterfest.

  • Chris Magee

    Jags -2.5
    Texans -3
    Rams -2.5
    Ravens +4.5
    Essay: Arizona Cardinals + 3
    I believe the wrong team is favored here. The titans may be the worst 8-4 team in history. I’m getting 3 points in a game where I have home field advantage and a coaching advantage. Arians > Mularkey all day. The Titans have a bad pass defense and might be missing slot corner Logan Ryan. Logan Ryan was getting torched himself and now his replacement will have to deal with Larry Legend. Gabbert has been EXTREMELY serviceable and he just put up a good game against the Jags pass D. Expecting them to feed Larry Legend. The Cards have shut down corner Peterson shutting down half the field, the Run D is under-rated and can hold down Murray/Henry. And Mariota just hasn’t looked good (banged up still?) I think titans could be a long term buy with a coaching regime change. Some scheme changes and a healthy Mariota this offense could be much better. But they have plain Mularkey still running dive plays with Demarco Murray on 1st and 10. Gimme the Cardinals + 3

    • Chris Magee

      Chargers – 6

  • Dave Kolonich

    Giants +4
    Bills PK
    Panthers +3
    Redskins +6
    Steelers -5

    Essay – Jags -2.5

    Hooray for “football guys!” I welcome the arrival of John Dorsey….and the inevitable firing of Hue Jackson mid-season 2018. Since Jimmy Haslam has basically thrown up his hands with this move – he may as well give up and go full LACANFORA and bring in Dave Toub. Anyway, let’s see what happens. If anything, the only marginal expansion era draft success came with “football guys” Savage and Heckert.

    Speaking of which, the Jags could serve as a nice ready made model. Make a bunch of picks, hit on a few elite athletes (Ramsey, Fournette), play the free agent market like champs (Jackson, Campbell, Bouye, Gipson) and take advantage of a weak division. Maybe this is the week they cement their push towards an eventual first-round exit, Marty-Ball style.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    Navy -3

  • NOTE: The Bears/Bengals line is Bengals -6.5, not PK as reflected in the Scores and Odds PDF below. We can only assume that’s a typo by Scores and Odds, as everywhere else shows this case opened at Bengals -7 and is now down to -6.5. Sorry for any confusion.

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    Down in Jacksonville to watch the Seahawks and Jags do battle. Of course it’s unseasonably cold since I arrived, but play King and Bear if you can at World Golf Hall of Fame if you get the chance. But picking from the iPhone since the computer is at home, so the synopses will be much shorter:

    Cowboys (-4) over Giants: Dallas is beat up, but needs a win.
    Steelers (-4.5) over Ravens: Steelers have bigger goals than just winning the North.
    Vikings (-3) over Panthers: Zimmer’s defense shuts down an overrated offense.
    Jets (-2) over Broncos: Sieman gains ground on Kizer for lead league in INT.
    (Should be) All-Play: Army (+3) over Navy: This was HARD. Lots of factors, but I’m taking strength of schedule and points in what should be a low-scoring game.
    Essay: Patriots (-11) over Dolphins: No Gronk? No problem. Patriots won by double digits two weeks ago and Miami isn’t 1-5 in their last six with the one win over Denver. Woof. Without Gronk, I see the Patriots going to a spread formation and Brandin Cooks benefiting from lots of looks. New England’s defense has been criticized for being “down” this year, and statistically they are except for one major category: Points Allowed Per Game (9th). I’ll take my chances the Belichicks keep up with the Steelers and make next week’s hoedowns with the Steelers a big one.

    • Peter Wendler

      Meet up with Jax Beach. He is going to the game.

  • cwonder23

    Falcons +1 (W)
    Navy -3
    Jets -2
    49ers +3
    Vikings -3
    Essay: Bengals PK

    Bears aren’t good. I’m just curious what caused this line to drop from -6 to a PK. That makes me a bit nervous but I’m still gonna roll with the Home team here. Trubisky shows flashes of what made him a top pick but he doesn’t really have anyone to throw to. The Bengals also are not a good team but they may be fighting for Marvin Lewis’ job (again). I have now clue how that guy has kept his job for so long. How many coaches, QBs and FOs have the Browns gone through during Lewis’ tenure? This is a tough slate of games this week but I think Cincinnati finds a way to win in front of their home crowd. Bengals 24 – Bears 17

    • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

      Have you seen the Bengals’ injury report?

      • cwonder23

        Ok, I’ll stay on cincy -6.5 but move my essay to the 49ers. I’m not able to write another essay now tho. Thanks.

    • NOTE: The Bears/Bengals line is Bengals -6.5, not PK as reflected in the Scores and Odds PDF below. We can only assume that’s a typo by Scores and Odds, as everywhere else shows this case opened at Bengals -7 and is now down to -6.5. Sorry for any confusion.

      Please submit another essay or else we’ll just keep you with Cincy -6.5.

  • jdoepke

    Army +3
    49ers +3
    Cowboys -4
    Cardinals +3
    Eagles +2.5

    Essay: Pats -11

    First of all, I’m out of it due to losing POTY last week with Auburn. Secondly, I hate betting favorites but the Pats just seem to cover EVERY SINGLE WEEK. I’m with the 63% of the public who have the Pats this week. The line was 17 at home a few weeks ago against the same team and glad to finally see Vegas make a line that makes sense for this squad (they were -5.5 vs. Oakland a few weeks before that – THAT IS ABSURD!). Anyway, I’m rolling with the hot team, the line seems right with a 6 point swing for being on the road. If Vegas is willing to make them an 11 point fave on the road vs. divisional opponent, granted a shitty one, I’ll roll with it. Pats blow em out 33-14.

    • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

      Nice. Thanks for convincing me on this.

  • CLEVTA

    Hey Kanick, Why is Cinci listed as PK? That’s incorrect. It’s 6.5 in the marketplace all week. Please chect thanks

  • Art Briles Hirer

    Navy -3
    Bengals PK
    Chiefs -4
    Rams -2.5 (Essay)
    Giants +4
    Steelers -4.5

    • Art Briles Hirer

      Philly sports is weird. I follow a lot of Eagles fans on twitter and they are always mad. They also seem to think Carson Wentz is bad. I don’t ever watch the Eagles play so I am making this pick solely on that basis.

      In all seriousness I think the Eagles have benefit from an easy schedule. I do think they’re legitimately a top NFC team, but their 2 losses were road trips out west to Kansas City and Seattle. Both teams missing a top receiving target, with Zach Ertz and Robert Woods expected to miss this game. I’m expecting Todd Gurley to be the difference in a close game.

  • Jmacdaddio

    Titans -3 (Essay)
    Cowboys +4
    Broncos +2 (few things are worse than being a home underdog to the Jets)
    Chiefs -4
    Niners +3 (No Play)
    Vikings -3

    No All Play? This opens things up a bit. I’d like to see a No Play game. A game picked by the Committee which nobody is allowed to use as a pick, on the grounds that it’s too excruciating to watch. This week the 49ers vs the Texans might be that game.

    Sadly I’ll have to do all NFL this week. I don’t know enough about either service academy’s season to make a confident guess. I mean, careful decision made after analyzing every last microspeck of data. The Titans are on a roll while the Cards, not so much. This year’s Cards team is the last gasp of their relative glory days. They have an aging standout WR, an aging QB, and I forget who else. They have nothing to play for and are headed for an off-season roster churn. Titans should have no trouble in warm, sunny Glendale.

    • Hahaha I vote for the upcoming Browns/Bears game as a no play.

  • LittleBallofHate

    One biscuit picks — Army (+3), Packers (-3), Niners (+3), Rams (-2.5), TBA
    Essay
    Bengals (Pick ’em) vs. Bears
    CIncy begins a run of three straight against the NFC North with that will be their best chance at getting a win. They have to go to Minnesota next week and a reunion with Zim before hosting the Lions on Christmas Eve.
    Bengals are coming off their usual Lucy holds the ball and then pulls it out from Charlie Brown at the last second type loss to the Steelers but they are unbeaten in their last seven home games against NFC teams and are 16-7-2 against the NFC overall since 2012. Marvin and John Fox are close friends who are in their sunset days with their respective teams but at a Pick ’em it seems too good to pass up.

    • As noted above, the Bears/Bengals line is Bengals -6.5, not PK as reflected in the Scores and Odds PDF below. We can only assume that’s a typo by Scores and Odds, as everywhere else shows this case opened at Bengals -7 and is now down to -6.5. Sorry for any confusion.

      Please submit another essay or else we’ll just keep you with Cincy -6.5.

      • No need to do another actual essay, just indicate whether you want to keep the Bengals as your vote of the week or else choose a replacement. Thanks.

        • LittleBallofHate

          I’ll keep the Bengals as the essay.
          Also going to go with Colts for the last one biscuit.

  • Capitalgg

    It’s time for my annual complaint that the competition committee has again not chosen Army-Navy for this week’s All-play. The whole point remains challenging the commentariat here. The all-play is a national game that should be challenging to handicap.

    Well it doesn’t get more national than the United States Naval Academy and the United States Military Academy. You want a handicapping challenge? Both teams run he option.

    It being the only college football game this week makes it truly the perfect sports voting challenge.

    With that being said, I will play Army-Navy in my all-play position simply out of principle.

    [All-play] Navy -3 v Army: My dad was Navy. My best friend is a Marine. My Grandpa was Army. This will be a fun game, but Navy gets the C-I-C trophy again this year.
    1. Eagles +2.5 @ Rams: The alternate choice for all-play. Seriously, if you won’t go Army-Navy, how is this not an all-play?
    2. Raiders +4 @ Chiefs: This game has field goal written all over it.
    3. Bengals pk @ Bears
    4. Browns +3 v Packers: CMFB either win this under the new regime or they complete the perfect season.

    So now that I’m almost done ranting about how the all-play should be Army-Navy, I’ve got to essay a game this week. It’s a tough call this week as we are late in the year and the lines are tight. Next week is prime with the first round of bowl games which usually features some mismatches or games where teams won’t show up prepared.

    Anyway, I’ve settled on a game that stuck me as interesting this week. The Tennessee Titans have seemingly slipped by everyone they’ve played. 4 points by the Colts. 4 points by the Bengals. 3 points past the Browns. 3 points against the Ravens. It’s been a remarkable run, really.

    But they have to make a long road trip this week. And while the scoreboard hasn’t really shown it, the Cardinals have been playing better in recent weeks, especially at home.

    Continuing to play underdogs after they were so helpful to me last week, after several weeks where the favorites over performed. So I’ll ride against the road favorite and take Cardinals +3 v Titans in an expected close one.

    • See above re: the Bengals line. It’s -6.5. Drop or keep it at that price. Thanks and sorry.

      • Capitalgg

        Change to Panthers +3 please.

      • Capitalgg

        I swear i submitted a change to Panthers. No idea where it went. ☹

  • GRRustlers

    Week 15 Picks

    Army (+3) over Navy – Still the only thing Cheddar Bay got wrong. This should always be the all play.

    Panthers (+3) over Vikings
    Broncos (+2) over Jets
    Giants (+4) over Cowboys
    Steelers (-4.5) over Ravens

    Essay Pick

    The nonsense of the MAC championship last week was the final straw for me and felt like actual nails in the coffin. Thanks Toledo. What the hell was that?

    My entire essay pick this week is based on nothing more than an actual adult now being present in Berea. Guy takes over as GM and in less than 24 hours shows Britt where the door is. I picture Sling Blade walking up to Hue and telling him that he is 0-0 and if you say shit about me in a post game presser I’ll cut your damn mic off and the room will go dark.

    Hue realizes that bury the lawyer from the Jacksonsville Housing Authority play time is over and discovers that he actually has the ability to run the ball. The Packers stink and the Browns find a way on Sunday.

    Browns (+3) over Packers

  • Peter Wendler

    ***ESSAY*** Bengals PK vs. Bears

    The Bungles have been able to stay in this “Does anyone want the AFC Wild Card” race simply because they have been able to beat DeShone Kizer (twice), Jacoby Brissett, and Brock Osweiler; not exactly beating three HOF’ers. I just have a feeling Mitchell Trubisky will wind up in the above-named players’ category as opposed to wearing the gold jacket. If Marvin Lewis has any of his 9 lives left, he better win this game against a low-risk/low-reward Bears offense. John Fox is probably toast, but his team has been within one score (except @ Philly) with Trubisky at the helm. If the Bungles were laying any points here, I wouldn’t touch it… but a pick-em, at Paul Brown, vs. the Bears? Give me the home team no matter who they are. Bungals 19 Bears 16.

    2.) Falcons +1 vs. Saints (W)
    3.) Chargers -6 vs. Redskins
    4.) Seahawks +2.5 @ Jags
    5.) Vikings -3 @ Panthers
    6.) Navy-3 vs Army

    • Sorry, as noted above, the Bears/Bengals line is Bengals -6.5, not PK as reflected in the Scores and Odds PDF below. We can only assume that’s a typo by Scores and Odds, as everywhere else shows this case opened at Bengals -7 and is now down to -6.5. Sorry for any confusion.

      Please submit another essay or else we’ll just keep you with Cincy -6.5.

      • Peter Wendler

        Please switch my essay to Chargers -6. But I’m not going to write another essay. I’ll re-submit my form this evening. Switching off Bengals to Cowboys -4

        • Sorry, yeah, no need to submit another essay, I just meant another essay vote. Thanks.

  • pheasantpants

    Falcons
    Army

    • pheasantpants

      Bears
      Packers
      Bucs

    • pheasantpants

      Rams -2.5 essay

      Cheddar crowd wisdom is favoring the Los Angeles Rams of Los Angeles today, and I have no reason to disagree with Mr. Market. The Rams are very good defensively this year, with a more notable weakness against the run, but I do not view the Eagles as a particularly strong running team, even with the addition of Jay Ajayi. On the other side, the Rams’ offense has been powerful and balanced.

      Reasons to doubt the Eagles today: lackluster performance last week against Seattle; a record juiced by wins over mediocre teams; pressure of needing this win to assure themselves of a first-round bye; the extended west coast trip. The Rams, meanwhile, are invigorated after having cast off the shackles of Jeff Fisher and returning to LA. Students of history may recall that during their previous LA stint, the Rams played in Orange County. Calling the storied Coliseum as their temporary home field has apparently imbued the Rams with swagger they did not possess in St. Louis, and the Rams have reeled off a string of victories, each more impressive than the Eagles’ recent wins. Give me the home favorite.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Falcons. Can’t see any lines anywhere so I don’t know I guess it’s +1? Can I make my own line? Someone plz point me to the doc thx

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      There is a link to the pdf of the lines in the intro above. +1

      • CLEVTA

        Doesn’t show on iPhone for some reason

    • all set now not that it helps.

    • CLEVTA

      2. Pitt -4.5
      3. Hou -3
      4. Carolina +3
      5. Philly +2.5
      6. Cards +3 (essay): titans are the most overrated tm in the nfl and I️ can’t believe they are a 3 seed. They have a -16 pt differential at 8-4 and are an unsustainable 5-1 in one score gms. Mariota has been terrible on the road throwing 3tds and 9ints. Titans are well known as a heavy run team but Zona is 4th in run defense. Tenn pass D ranks 23rd so expect Fitzgerald to have a big gm

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Falcons

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      Falcons –yay win
      Army + 3
      Bears pk
      Eagles +2.5
      Ravens +4.5
      Panthers +3 Essay

      As I watch the Women’s ITT world championship bike race that I saved for a football free Friday night, I think of what total bozos these football players are with their fighting and rule breaking. Certainly their tomfoolery lends itself to a certain type of tv viewing charms and great announcer comments like “fist vs helmet, helmet always wins,” but is it that hard to follow rules? I’ve had a lot of disagreements in my line of work and lots of insults hurled my way on a weekly basis (got to love night shift in the ER) but somehow I have been able to refrain from ripping anyone’s jewelry off or pulling anyone’s hair. Win I find deadly disease process that I can alter I may do a little dance but I’d never take a canine urination position. I recently discovered that the NFL rule book is available online and it makes for some great light reading. It seems to me that the basic player interaction rules should be easy enough to learn and follow –one may not know when one may use a drop kick but certainly one could remember not to throw an officials flag into the stands. Not all teams are equal in their rule breaking however. Seattle tops the leader board with 114 flags (not including offsetting or declined) for 967 yards lost while Carolina has a mere 61 for only 509 yards. Granted some of this may be related to the local officiating crew given Miami having the second most penalties but also being the top flag beneficiary. This week Carolina hosts the Vikings who are no strangers to penalty flags and fines. They have more than twice as many fined episodes as Carolina, really racking up their involuntary donations to the Gene Upshaw Players Assistance Trust (helping professional athlete college drop outs earn their degrees for almost 10 years). The best thing that I found online today was the link to the online grant application for the Trust-seems like the NFL players would have their own NFL based log ins for something like this. I haven’t seen a lot of other websites that say “If you are a former NFL player . . . download the application today.” Maybe someone should let a few current Browns quarterbacks know there is a back up plan available. Anyway, I am really looking forward to some Viking goal post humping, blind side blocking and horse collar tackling while the Panthers quietly cover the spread. Lets hope the least violent team wins.

  • I’ll have one point on the Falcons as well, please.

  • cwonder23

    Falcons +1 for one cheddar point please

  • Peter Wendler

    Falcons +1 for one biscuit

  • Jaxbch Josh

    Falcons +1 1 cheddar biscuit. Home Dog, Desperate team at Home in the NFL..gimme. 24-23 ATL
    Sea +2.5- Scrambling QB’s give Jags fits with our pass rush we tend to over pursue. Look for R Wilson to have close 100 yards rushing. Sea 26-20
    San Diego -6- Washington beat up, Chargers hot, Ill go with the hot team and Silver Surfer. SD 34-26
    Pats -11- BC its MNF and I need Brady to go off for my Fantasy Playoffs. 31-17 Pats
    Oak +4- KC in a tailspin and no Jason Peters. Ill go with Oak 27-24
    ESSAY RAVENS +4.5
    NO Ryan Shazier is gonna be a big loss for Pitt. He is the glue that holds that defense together. Coupled that as I am a Jags fan and need the Steelers to Lose. Add to the Fact Steelers played a Brutal MNF and are on a short emotional week. Ravens lost CB jimmy Smith, Huge loss in Secondary. I see a 27-24 final, could go either way, thus give me the Points Tommy!
    *If spreads don’t match its because I used my book for pts. (as I cant find the spreads this week, computer acting up) and regardless I’m in for whatever cheddar’s spread is.
    Brat

  • How many weeks until the playoffs start? (How many more weeks do I have left to wring my hands over my unused POTY?)

    • 4 more weeks left including this one (so, 3 more weeks after this one). The Cheddar Bay regular season is always 18 weeks (the first week of college only plus the 17 weeks of the NFL season) and always ends with the last NFL game. The college games that happen after the last NFL game are part of the Cheddar playoffs.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    **** Saints -1 ****
    Navy -3 because Nike sucks
    Steelers -4.5
    Cowboys -4
    Jets -2
    Chargers -6

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Saints -1 over Falcons
      I am not fully cognizant of how the respective standard is derived but I am almost certain that Drew Brees and Matt Ryan can be considered franchise quarterbacks and Brees looks better to me, he has done more with less talent, so the amazingly unimportant match-up of franchise quarterbacks goes to the Saints.
      The Falcons also have a very serious problem with the most important player on the wrong side of the ball our former beloved Brown, Alex Mack. Mack suffered what appeared to be a very serious head injury in last weeks game and while he shall be playing, I doubt that after such a vicious late hit to the head that he will be at 100%, or even have his wits about him this week.
      The Saints should be 4 point favorites in this game and the main reason they are not is because the Falcons have Devonta Freeman returning to action. The huge problems here are, while it is true that Devonta Freeman is a great player, he plays on the wrong side of the ball at an interchangeable position where his success is based on the players in front of him and his ability to quickly read and react to a myriad of fast changing variables. He is coming off two games out with a concussion, unless the Falcons’ offensive line gives him easy reads and every play goes as planned, he may be better off spending another game on the sidelines.
      If Marshon Lattimore is playing at anything near his full capabilities this game may be way more than a 2 point victory for New Orleans.

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