Cheddar Wk 11, ND -3 at Miami

REMINDER: Weekly payouts ($110) start this week.

We take 25% of our kitty and split it up for eight weekly payouts at the end of the year.  (To keep things interesting for those sitting well below the red line.)  (Like me.)  To date I show ~$3700 dollars received, 25% is $940, dived by 8 –> let’s lock the weekly payout at $110.  Ties split the weekly payout.  POTY bonus is not used in weekly prize calc.  Now is the time to get a Lobsterfest. 

Please have a paypal (fine, or a Venmo) account (or even better a BTC wallet address) and I will pay you promptly on Tuesday.


We’re going to do a poll again but this time you’ll need to log in and we’ll see what the results look like in 24 hours!

UPDATE:  ND/Miami wins poll.

ND/Miami, 5
UGA/Auburn, 4
Other (MIN/WAS), 1

Thanks to those who voted and good luck this week.

Download (PDF, Unknown)

  • bupalos

    And rams late. Still trying to squeeze essay through the bupalian birth canal.

    • I’m shocked that it wasn’t CMFB. So what did you know and when did you know it?

    • thatsfine

      “the Bupalian birth canal” is a great start. 96 words to go.

      • bupalos

        uuungh, urh…ahhhrg..yahh wow. Oh wow. Ahhhhhmmm. Gagah. Jesus. Jesus Christ. Ahhrrhrg. Yagh. Mother of god. God. Oh god. God. Good god. Holy mother. Frrrrrraagh. Ok. Ok. Oh. I’m ok. I’m ok. I’m ok ok ok. I’m GODDDD. God. Holy god. Wha…. ha.. .ohhh.. yahh wow. Oh wow. Frrrrrraagh. God. Good god. Holy mother. Holy mother of god. I can’t do this. I can’t. God. God. Wow. No. This isn’t happening. No. God. Jesus god the mother mary of christ and god. Holy… wow. I’m OK. OK. Not right. No. God. Urh…ahhhrg..Panthers.

  • pheasantpants

    Washington NFL team

  • bupalos

    Brown’s in the earliest…essay to follow

  • John

    Sunday picks
    Bears -5 vs. Packers
    Skins +1.5 to the Vikings
    Jags -4 to Chargers
    Saints -2.5 to Bills

    Essay
    Falcons -3 to the Cowboys

    • John

      Essay
      Falcons -3 to Cowboys
      Welcome to Atlanta where the players play
      And we ride on dem thangs like ev-ery day
      Big beats, hit streets, see gangsters roamin
      And parties dont stop ’til eight in the mo’nin

      hit return.

      Ok- No Zek, so it’s a battle of Dak/Dez versus Matty Ice/Julio

      the Julio show goes off today- LIKE career day (after the drop last week)

      the OLine for the Cowboys keeps up, and the running game will be average for the Boys, but without Zek, they miss out on the extra move (and yards)

      Indoors, in ATL, they start their playoff push today.

      Atl by 10 or more.

  • TS_Butler

    ND (L)
    Utes (L)
    NC St. (push)
    Rams
    Skins
    Bills essay

    Just picking with my heart here. Bills fans came tumbling back to Earth in what was in hindsight a predictable let down game for a fast starting Bills team. I’m hoping that a blowout loss to the Jets was actually a blessing in disguise. The Bills had an extra three days to prepare coming into this game and I’m sure McDermott had his teams’ attention the whole time. The home fans should have the team fired up and I think they play well. The Saints have been riding high lately. I think they come back down to Buffalo’s level this week. Go Bills.

  • Chris Magee

    Re-posting to top since I made the mistake to reply in my comments to my saturday picks

    Giants -1
    Vikings -1.5 (essay) see original post for full essay

  • Matt Lawrence

    Redskins +1.5
    Bills +2.5
    Rams -11 (essay – no essay week)

  • HitTheHorns

    Titans, Patriots, Colts

  • Jeff Smith

    Oklahoma -6.5
    The U +3 (all play)
    Skins +1.5
    Saints -2.5
    Rams -11
    Patriots -7.5 (essay) **essay to be written below shortly**

    • Jeff Smith

      Essay

      Patriots -7.5

      I know that Mr. Brady doesn’t historically match up well against this Denver defense, however Brock Osweiler is absolutely terrible, so I’ll roll the dice here on Brady 10 times out of 10. The Broncos surrendered 51 points to the Eagles last week, albeit on the road and against an Eagles offense that has been steam rolling anyone in their path. I just don’t think Osweiler can put the Broncos in any kind of position to play keep away from Brady. The Broncos best shot here will be to try to play field position, but Brock just doesn’t have what it takes. If the Patriots can stop Denver on the ground, they shouldn’t have many issues. It will be up to the Patriots O-Line to try and keep the Denver Front 7 out of Brady’s face. I still am in total disbelief that Brock Osweiler is a starting quarterback in the NFL……….

  • oxr

    All-Play Notre Dame -3 over Miami, I guess.

    • oxr

      Steelers -10 over Colts
      Patriots -7.5 over Broncos – everything about this pick bums me out right down to the hook
      Cowboys +3 over Falcons
      oh 49ers +1 over Giants why not

      Essay Jags -4 over Chargers – Enjoying what may be a fleeting glimpse of my name above the red line, let’s go against the principles that got me here and pick against the West Coast road team in an early game. At #4-vs-#21 this is a slightly bigger ordinal DVOA mismatch than Dallas-Atlanta (still inviting at #8-vs-#19). The Chargers have a nice little win streak against disappointing teams and just managed to hang 13 entire points on one of the league’s worst defenses; now they go up against Jalen Ramsey & co. I have always been a Marcell Dareus booster and am unscientifically hoping that he will do prolonged good things for the Jacksonville run D. In summary, then, I am picking Blake Bortles to score at least 5 more points than another NFL franchise and should probably just go jump in the lake and get it over with.

  • 0-3 friday, ffs.
    ND for the essay. For the first time in my Cheddar memory, ND has been a cover machine which only makes sense given SuperP4eva’s absence and DWhale’s uncharacteristic indifference this year. It as though decades of being the under-performing public team the sharps love to go against is being reconciled all at once. Only EMU and UB have produced more Cheddar points and they both have a game in for this week. Part of this is what I’m seeing in Brian Kelly. He didn’t get fired and if has wasn’t fired already he’s probably going to be there for awhile. He exhibits more poise and confidence as a result of not having to be full-on hair-on-fire at all times to keep the alums at bay. The team feeds off his confidence. I actually see this ND team making the playoffs and maybe doing something big there.

    • Based on that first ND drive I’d say they have zero chance of winning this game but we’ll see.

      • HitTheHorns

        Executive committee on executive committee crime! these cheddar streets can be tough.

        • Eh I just thought it was really telling the way ND’s touted OL got pushed around by the Canes DL on that first series given how one-dimensional ND’s offense is. Especially so given that it was inevitable ND’s season would wind up in the dumpster at some point. I’m starting to count on it the way I count on the Wahoo Curse. It’s hard to think of a more fraudulent institution than ND.

    • annnd broncos and dolphins to close out this nightmare.

  • Hawkaholic

    Jets – 2.5
    Oklahoma -6.5
    WSU -1
    A&M -19
    AP: ND -3
    Essay: Mizzou -11

    Missouri is clearly the better team here in this one with a much more powerful offense. Tennessee is having a tough go of things, hard to believe Butch has not been let go at this point. The Tennessee pass defense has not been tested this year like they will be tonight against Mizzou. Drew Lock throws the ball over the field and will have a ton of success tonight. Mizzou is 5-0 ATS the spread in their last five games and i like they to cover tonight at home. Mizzou started off the season fairly rocky but have rebounded the last month or so and blew out Florida last week. I like Mizzou to win this one fairly easily tonight against a Tennessee team that really has nothing to play for.

  • clayII

    the U (+3)

    • clayII

      Skins (+1.5)
      Denver (7.5)
      Giants (-1)
      Chargers (+4)

  • Miami O. over Akron (W)
    Ohio U. over Toledo (W)

    Vote of the Week: U of Miami +3 over Notre Dame.

    My personal biases are surely influencing this pick against a formerly great institution that used to stand for the rise of historically oppressed people, a strong middle class, and social-democratic values, generally, that’s since had its leadership commandeered by crooks who use religion as a tool to advance policies that are deliberately intended to segregate Americans by class and race and further deepen inequality. Much like the Cleveland Browns have died with the death of America’s middle class, Notre Dame football has too (29 years and counting since their last national title) which is something when you consider that this ND program can leverage its extreme riches against its competitors in a way that the Browns can’t due to the draft, salary cap, and etc. As much as I love you Irish fans in this thread, the words of LCD Soundsystem come to mind here: “Take me off your mailing list for those who think it still exists.”

    But even if you don’t buy or care about any of that, this line is just fishy. There’s a consensus in this thread and everywhere else that Notre Dame—who just blew the doors off highly ranked USC and NC State teams in consecutive weeks on national TV—is stacked with first round talent on both sides of the ball, especially on the lines, and should dominate this game against a Miami group with a somewhat suspect offense that’s barely squeaked by a much weaker slate of opponents than what ND has faced. Maybe some of it is Big Football trying to ram a “The U is back!/Catholics v. Convicts!” narrative down our throats, but it still looks too easy to take ND here.

    Anyway, to borrow a few more words from LCD Soundsystem in closing,

    Maybe I’m wrong and maybe you ND fans are right.
    Maybe I’m wrong and maybe you’re right.
    Maybe you’re right, maybe I’m wrong.
    And just maybe you’re right.
    And oh! Maybe mother told you true.
    And Irish football will come back for you.
    And you’ll never be alone.
    But maybe she’s wrong and maybe I’m right.
    And just maybe she’s wrong.
    Maybe she’s wrong and maybe I’m right.
    And if so, here’s this song!
    I mean, here’s this football essay!

    Rest of votes:

    Auburn +2.5 over UGA;
    Baker the touchdown maker -6.5 over TCU;
    Falcons -3 over Cowboys

    Hope everyone is having and continues to have a great weekend!

  • thatsfine

    UMiami +3
    SJSU +19
    Wyoming +3

    • thatsfine

      Bucs +2.5
      Thinking a healthy Fitzpatrick will be an upgrade over an injured Winston.

  • Matt Borcas

    Essay: Notre Dame -3 over Miami

    Outside of their one-point loss to no. 1 Georgia, the Irish have been blowing out all of their opponents by double digits. I don’t see why this week’s matchup against Miami will be any different. Yes, the Hurricanes are undefeated and find themselves in national title contention for the first time since the glory days of Ken Dorsey, but they’ve largely won very close games against very mediocre teams. Even Miami’s supposedly huge win over Virginia Tech doesn’t impress me much … who has Virginia Tech beaten?!? Kudos to Mark Richt for rejuvenating The U, but it’ll take a few more recruiting classes before the Canes are *actually* back. ND’s offensive line will dominate Miami, paving the way for Josh Adams to officially enter the Heisman conversation.

    Georgia -2.5 over Auburn
    Jaguars -4 over Chargers
    Browns +12.5 over Lions
    Rams -11 over Texans
    Cowboys +3 over Falcons

  • bupalos

    In today for
    Iowa +11.5,
    UCLA -2.5,
    Miami +3.

    • Hmmm I wonder who the mighty bupalos will be making his vote of the week tomorrow

    • ill def need you to use the form and ‘bup’ is still in the dropdown (it’s a #48 or thereabouts). thanks.

  • ChuckKoz

    1) Iowa +11.5 (Wiscy – 12:30pm)
    2) Boise -5.5 (CSU – 7pm)
    3) USC -13.5 (CU – 1pm)
    4) Dolphins +9 (Panthers – Monday)
    AP) The U +3 (ND – 5pm)
    Essay) Browns +12.5 (Lions)
    I have decided this week that Bye weeks matter and the browns have one. And are legit super health on d, which has to mean something (side note: NFL wants to expand the season….just go to an 18 week, 2 bye season….seems it could enhance product….and make sure that every thursday game is coming off of one of the 2 bye weeks).

    And i am believing that that turnover differential matters. in that, teams with really bad (browns) or really good (lions) will ultimately regress to the mean. so with that, I see the Browns being a great value to hang around and maybe even jump out to a lead. (having said that, seems so incredibly likely in a close game the wheels fall off late and they lose by 14…..but i stand by my pick principles)

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    Wait, so NOW is the time to get a LobsterFest? Wish I would have known that Week 1. And wait, that week was for only half points?!? Good thing I have saved another LobsterFest for this week. Here we go!

    MSU (+15.5) over Ohio State: You really think all these Spartan recruits from Ohio are going to come into Ohio Stadium and lose by 16 to a team that could have taken them but didn’t want them. Oh, honey, please…
    Georgia (-2.5) over Auburn: “Dogs in cars again. Going away. Going away fast. Look at those dogs go. Go, dogs, go!”
    Jaguars (-4) over Chargers: West Coast team traveling east combined with the Jags’ D makes this an almost essay pick. Add in one more week of rest for Fournette, and this could get ugly.
    Saints (-2.5) over Bills: But Drew Brees doesn’t play well in the cold and outside you say. Drew Brees also hasn’t had a good defense and Alvin Kamara in the cold, so don’t get scared away from this one.
    All-Play: Miami (FL) (+3) over Notre Dame: Not going to lie, I am really excited to watch this one. The atmosphere in Dade County is going to be insane. I have no clue how Notre Dame pulls off a win down there with that kind of crowd. Oh, and I really love the turnover chain.
    Essay: Boise State (-5.5) over Colorado State: I’ve started playing touch football on Saturday afternoons. Of course, the team goes out afterward, so I find myself coming home to watch late night football, so I’ve been able to see quite a few west coast games. Boise State is a team I’ve seen a few times, so I’ve had a chance to appreciate them come back in college football relevance. They’ve been non-factors in the Mountain West the last two years, but they now have a defense (wait, WHAAAAT?!?) that can dominate the conference. Fifteenth in the nation in total defense and eleventh in rushing yards allowed, the Broncos have a chance to (essentially) wrap up the conference with a win tonight. Yes, Colorado State has studs Nick Stevens (QB), Michael Gallup (WR) and Dalyn Dawkins (RB) leading the conference in their respective offensive categories, but the dual-quarterback system of Rypien and Cozart will combine with 6’3″ Cedrick Wilson (who would look great in orange and brown by the way) at least twice for big plays/TDs as the Broncos go on the road and take this one.

  • trashycamaro

    Starting with ND -2.5 over Miami

    • trashycamaro

      Washington Football Team +1.5 over Vikings

      Bengals +4.5 over Titans

      Rams -11 over Texans

      Essay Cowboys +3 over Falcons Time to face facts: the Falcons are bad. They were not last year but this year they mopst certainly are. An important part of the Super Bowl push last year was that the defense really stepped it up down the stretch. That defense has fallen back apart.

      This year the Falcons are (essay to be finished after baby gets put down for nap)

      NYG -1 over 49ers

      • trashycamaro

        POTY Essay Cowboys +3 over Falcons Time to face facts: the Falcons are bad. They were not last year but this year they mnopst certainly are. An important part of the Super Bowl push last year was that the defense really stepped it up down the stretch. That defense has fallen back apart.

        This year the Falcons are not getting it done on defense. A look at the numbers show that they are #29 in defensive DVOA. Breaking that out they are 24th against the pass and 29th against the run.

        The big change this year has been their pass rush which has a woeful 5.3 adjusted sack rate, good for #21. For some perspective the Jags have an 11.6% adjusted sack rate at the top and the Pats have an amazing 3.2% to rank 32nd, while the average is 6.8% and Cleveland is 5.8%.

        Give me that pass rush against the Dallas O-line (allowing a 4.3% adjusted sack rate) and Dak can take all day to throw and find whoever he likes.

        In fact, since I think I am getting about 3 free points here, we are going to go ahead and make this the POTY for me.

  • 1. OSU
    2. NC St.
    3. Miami (All Play)

    • 4. Steelers
      5. Lions
      6. Essay: Saints

      Using my no essay week here as I travel back from New Orleans.

  • Brian

    Rams-11 Houston has one of the worst offenses without watson back there.
    NC State -3 They are still in it with a Clemson loss and BC is playing with a hurt QB
    Fresno -9.5 Playing Hawaii. enough said
    Texas Tech -7.5 Baylor is atrocious
    ND-3 Die Hard and if I’m forced to Pick it will never be against the Irish
    ***ESSAY***
    WVU +2.5
    The mountaineers are not a bad football team, just havent put everything together in a single game this year. Their defense looked great against Iowa State last week, and the Grier to Sills combination has been phenomenal. On top of that, Kansas State may be playing with their 3rd QB and its never easy to win with a guy who hasnt played all year. I Think that WVU defense holds KSU to a low amount of points somewhere in the 10-17 range, and i see WVU offense scoring somewhere in the 30’s. Give me Daniel Boone and the Raccoon Hat for 3

  • CLEinMSP

    K-State -2.5
    Georgia -2.5
    Texas Tech -7.5
    Skins +1.5
    Notre Dame -3 (All Play)
    USC -13.5 (Essay)

    Ronald Jones is a good running back, and Colorado is awful against the run. Jones gets going early, which will open some big plays for Sam Darnold. USC can clinch the PAC 12 South with a win today, and CO needs to win their last 2 games just to be bowl eligible. After USC got embarrassed at ND, they have scored 48 and 49 points in consecutive games. No reason to think they will struggle to move the ball against CO. As long as USC gets off to a good start today, I just don’t see CO with much of a reason to hang around.

  • Matt Lawrence

    Virginia Tech -3
    Baylor +7.5
    Miami +3 (AP)

  • Boston College +3 vs. NC State
    Giants -1 at 49ers
    Iowa State +6.5 vs. OK State
    AP: Irish +3 at Miami (FL)
    Indiana -9 at Illinois

    Iowa +11.5 at Wisconsin
    When the excitement of a new season is gone, when the resurgence of energy from homecoming has passed, you are left with bitter cold November football. It’s a high of 37 in Madison, WI, with total cloud cover and 14 mph winds. No thanks. It’s a “stay inside with your cheese curds” kind of day. I’m enjoying watching the Big 10 cannibalize itself and I don’t see why this week will be any different. With OSU and Penn taking some embarrassing losses, Wisconsin finally has the floor. Being the best of the worst is not a great look. Iowa has some confidence from last week’s obliteration of OSU and of course, Iowa has their crown Jewell. Are linebackers eligible for Heisman trophies? He will be the reason Wisconsin wins this game (or at the very least, covers).

  • TS_Butler

    Gamecocks -7
    Utes +1
    ND -3 All Play

    • TS_Butler

      NC St. -3

      • TS_Butler

        Taking myself off of gamecocks -7

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Ohio State -15.5. I️ don’t understand the line so i must be missing something.

    Ucla -2.5

    Redskins +1.5

    49ers +1
    Falcons -3
    Notre Dame essay

    Miami has been scratching and clawing through its schedule. There’s no doubt the U is on its way back, but Notre Dame is for real. Boasting one of the best defensive and offensive lines in college football, I️ think they are going to be a problem for the U on both sides of the ball. If Notre Dame can avoid turnovers and with Kizer wearing the brown and orange that won’t be a problem.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Ohio St. – Ok, let me get this straight, 13th ranked Ohio St. is giving 17 to 12th ranked Michigan St? This is as big a number as you will ever see a lower ranked team laying. Ohio St. has been pretty much trash all year while Michigan St. has massively overachieved. This must look like a massive number to the casual player, even with Ohio St’s name recognition. I’ll take my chances that Michigan St. is pounded back down to earth in this one. Ohio St. for my essay.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Oklahoma -6.5
    2. Browns +12.5
    3. MSU +15.5
    4. Saints -2.5
    5. All Play: ND -3
    6. Essay: Jets -2.5

    I love Josh McCown and what he has meant to the NYJ. He is a baller and a leader and tha has kept him in the league for a long time. When he cried in his press conference last year when talking about his kids and what he was trying to teach them by playing I became a fan. I think he has a real chemistry with his receivers and it seems like the team is having fun.
    The other side of the ball is a complete mess. Jameis and Evans being out is a recipe for disaster. Normally I would think Fitz as a home dog would be a good bet but not without Mike Evans. He is a gun slinger but who is he going to sling it to?? I think he is multiple interception Ryan Fitzpatrick and I think the NYJ will take advantage.

  • Jmacdaddio

    ND -3 (Catholics over Convicts)
    RU +31 (that’s a lot of points)
    Michigan St +15.5 (also, a lot of points)
    Minnesota -2.5
    Da Bears -5
    Titans -4.5 (Essay)

    Huh. Well last week’s haymaker worked. Quite a few of the top ten still have their POTY to play, so I should enjoy the view from the top while it lasts. The essay motivation this week is admittedly low. However there’s a major holiday coming soon, where time for an essay might not be in the cards.

    The Titans and Bengals are heading in opposite directions. Which is good if you’re a Titans fan or Marcus Mariota fantasy owner. They’ve bounced back nicely from their shellacking at the hands of the Texans, back when the Texans were good. They’ve rattled off three wins in a row while the Bengals haven’t been impressive. They have more wins than some truly awful teams, keep in mind that their wins have come mostly against those aforementioned awful teams. At the minimum I expect the Titans to be a playoff team, and now is when the contenders separate from the pretenders.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 11 Picks

    I have no clue this year but I did manage to figure out my PayPal password and pay my $105 tonight so if you had the under on week 11 congrat.

    Washington (-6) over Stanford – If we had a 16 team playoff like any rational human being would have designed the value on Washington would have been incredible this year.

    OSU (-15.5) over Michigan State – If a line makes no sense to you…play it.

    Redskins (+1.5) over Vikings – The amount of money that Cousins turns down from the Browns this spring is going to be an entire chapter in Browns history.

    Wisconsin (-11.5) over Iowa – Wisconsin can bring the most chaos to the idiocy of 5 power conferences starting a 4 team playoff.

    AP – ND (-3) over Miami – Same 16 team playoff and I’m taking WHOEVER draws Miami.

    Essay

    Give an older team like the Steelers a week off to prepare for a bad team like the Colts and not even have to worry about weather as a factor sounds like a really good deal to me.

    It is somewhat of a relief to know that other teams have owners that have lost their damn mind. Really…the injury might just be in his head? I do love the fact that Browns fans think there is a chance that Andrew Luck is coming to Cleveland via trade. You can put me down for the current Steelers QB lighting up the team of the next Steelers QB. Luck gets his fresh start in Pittsburgh next year and the Colts regret going 3-13 in a league where the 49ers and Browns have not been relegated.

    Steelers (-10) over Colts

  • jdoepke

    Miami +3 (AP)
    Miss St +13.5
    TCU +6.5
    Purdue +4
    Baylor +7.5

    Essay: Bucs +2.5

    I hate making an NFL play my essay but I like the fact that Fitzy is QB for TB. I think the Jets have overachieved thus far and will struggle on the road. Fitzy throws for 300+ vs his old team and Bucs win going away 27-16.

    • Hey man this essay is only 46 words. We have to stay consistent in enforcing the essay requirement. Thanks.

      • jdoepke

        apologies, was in a hurry but will make sure the next essay is twice as long to make up for it 🙂

  • Chris Magee

    magee406 saturday picks still deciding on final 2 but wanted to get Saturday in early

    Duke -3
    Bama -13.5
    Colorado State + 5.5
    Notre Dame – 3 (ALL Play)

    • Chris Magee

      MOOSE ON Colorado State up 14 with 4 minutes left that turned into an OT Loser… OUCH

      • Chris Magee

        Giants -1
        Vikings -1.5 (essay)
        No Reed and no Redskins WR has really been able to put together a season. Crowder is expected to play but he has not done much. The Redskins OL questionable all week expected to play but they are clearly not 100%. I think they are under-rating the Vikings Defense. This is simply a strong above average Defense vs a banged up offense. Also off the bye the Vikings will have a healthy Diggs/Thielen combo that should put up enough points. Also the Redskins are one of the worst teams in the league vs the TE so I expect Rudolph to have a big game especially in the red zone. Then throw in the coaching factor and Jay Gruden is out-classed. SKOL!

  • bupalos

    Alright, alright $50 to participate in your weekly football divination contest.

    And that’s my final offer, as far as you know.

    • Folks we have a development here

    • I would be shocked if the other members of the Executive Committee outvoted me on this, but I say hey pal, hit Mike up on paypal with that $50.

      You don’t get any essay skips, though.

      • bupalos

        OK. So how does this work, like, you make votes about the football teams and stuff? Because I’m pretty sure I can do that, like REALLY GOOD!

        • bupalos

          Also PayPal is for Normies, and for some reason it’s refusing my Bitcoin handle “eDonkey2000”

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Welcome back
            Your dreams were your ticket out
            Welcome back
            To that same old place that you laughed about

          • It is so good to see the two of you together again, finally.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        I will be shocked if there are other members.

      • i’m gonna do a poll on this.
        [[WINKY FACE!!]]

  • wash, unlv, cincy.

  • pheasantpants

    ESSAY: South Carolina -7

    I don’t have the heart to go back and look at exactly what I wrote, but last December, I essayed Florida and the points against Alabama in the SEC Championship, thinking that then-second year coach Jim McElwain would have his guys ready to play a close one in Atlanta. Instead, in a game that foreshadowed much of what was to come, the Gators totally wilted, losing 54-16 despite only being outgained 372-261 and 18 first downs to 16.

    The ship seemed righted after a dominant 30-3 Outback Bowl win vs Iowa. But strangely, Jim McElwain chose the postgame to deliver a shot at new AD Scott Stricklin regarding the administration’s commitment to him and the football program.

    This was the beginning of the end.

    A rash of suspensions and an inability to develop a QB led to a rapidly-deteriorating on-field product, and personality quirks that had been forgiven as Mac raced to a 15-3 conference record became flashpoints of conflict within the Florida program. As injuries and suspensions piled up, it became clear that the Gators’ two East titles under McElwain were attributable to the considerable recruiting efforts of Will Muschamp, who simply could not win enough to buy himself the time to coach his guys.

    Now, the Gators travel to South Carolina to face a former coach for the 13th consecutive year in this series. By all accounts, Muschamp was well-liked by the same people who pushed Mac out the door, and I’m not sure that this game engenders a white-hot spirit of revenge inside of him. But Carolina, with a win tomorrow, is all but guaranteed to be 8-3 going into a home showdown with rival Clemson. Ironically, Muschamp is doing something neither he _nor_ McElwain could do at Florida–develop a quarterback. This is going to be a problem for the Gators tomorrow.

    A frequent observation by the TV crew handling the Mizzou game was that the Florida players looked like they had given up on this season. Randy Shannon was appealing to them to at least get decent tape out there for draft scouts. That’s a bad sign. Carolina has so much to play for in this game and Florida does not. I maintain optimism about where the UF program can go from here, with a promising crop of coaches available–but 2017 can’t end fast enough. Gamecocks for the easy cover.

    Other picks:
    Toledo is already a huge L.
    MSU +15.5–OSU has not defended the pass that well, MSU plays the Buckeyes close yearly under Dantonio, and I think OSU may suffer from some motivation problems, with playoffs out of the picture. OSU wins a close one.
    All play: ND -3–Running game for the Irish is too good.
    Washington -6 at Stanford

  • Dave Borcas

    Toledo -3 (loser)
    Seattle -6 (push)
    BYU +4
    Bengals +4.5
    NC State -3
    Notre Dame (all play and POY)
    I have second guessed myself twice this season on potential POY games. Both games were winners. Miami has been solid all year and done what’s its taken to win the games. Notre Dame has been tested weekly with a tough schedule. I really enjoyed the Jimmie Johnson and Lou Holtz era for these games. Thad Catholics vs the convicts was some great football and always controversial. If Notre Dame comes through in this game they most likely will be in the football playoff while Miami most likely has a matchup with Clemson that could boost them back after a loss. Miami has been solid on defense and at best an opportunistic offense. Notre Dame has the best offensive line in the nation. There will be at leapt 2 first founders from that group. There defensive line has been very good and dominant at times. In the end the Irish will run the ball and be opportunistic with the passing game. If the Irish stay away from the turnovers and giving the Canes a short field they should cover.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    This is a re-post of my terrible early week picks that I had posted on last weeks thread
    Add ND for my all play

    It’s
    Monday night so it’s time for my weekly MAC essay writing while feeding
    a baby exercise in multitasking. The difficulty is in the choosing only
    4. I usually like the game-a-day approach but following a Ball State
    blood bath while I work an evening shift Thursday doesn’t sound like
    that much fun. The next question is Tuesday or Wednesday? I like the
    EMU/CMU game but we have dinner plans and it feels a little weird for me
    to insist that our out of town friends go to a restaurant with TVs.
    Then I would have to ask the restaurant if they get ESPNU which makes it
    even weirder. So Tuesday it is. BGSU vs Buffalo or Akron vs Miami (the
    only Miami worth watching). Akron is my alma mater and I chose it
    because I was a huge football fan. Hee hee . Not really-they had a
    combined undergrad/grad program that accepted me out of high school. I
    was known as “the commuter,” by the other 34 kids in the program since I
    was the only one who didn’t live on campus. I also road my bike to
    school as much as I could because I thought parking passes were a rip
    off. I haven’t been to a game since I was a kid, but I did play
    intramural flag football in the rubberbowl, so I’m basically a football
    alum too. Here is to not being weird. Akron +7
    Also today BGSU +7.5

    Pending lines:
    EMU
    OU
    Allplay TBD
    NFL Dolphins

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      I have nothing left to play for this week so I might as well join Frowns and switch my all play to Miami

  • POTY coming in HOT.

    $$$ WASHINGTON -6. $$$
    The nation’s leader in total defense, and more importantly, a defense allowing just 91 yards per game on the ground, gets to face off against a Stanford squad that’s struggled to score points the past two weeks against far lesser opponents. Last year, Washington blew Stanford’s doors off, with their defense leading the way. They sacked Stanford QBs eight times, and held Christian McCaffrey to 49 rushing yards. Now I’ll be the first to tell you that past performance is no indication of future results, but I see a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses showing on both sides here, and I think we get a repeat of last season.

    In an utterly unbelievable statistic, Bryce Love has a rush of over 50 yards in EVERY SINGLE GAME this season. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in EVERY SINGLE GAME as well. Impressive no matter what level of football you’re talking about, but let’s also look at a few other things that stand out:

    Love has only 4 receptions for 19 yards on the season. Christian McCaffrey caught 37 passes for 310 yards and 3 TDs last season. Yes, he’s a tremendous all-around athlete. What gives this year?
    Surely you try to get your best player involved in the offense in every way possible, no? Stanford has completed just eight passes to running backs all season. That number, when you consider screens and checkdowns is in some ways more mind-blowing than Love’s rushing numbers mentioned above. Love may be the best RB in the nation, but he isn’t the best player, and the Heisman voting will hopefully reflect that.

    Last week, on the fifteen carries that weren’t for 52 yards, Love gained 17 yards total. A yard per touch. He can be neutralized, especially considering Stanford hasn’t played a defense like Washington’s yet this season. Over a THIRD of Love’s total yardage on the season has come on eight carries. WTF?! Limit the big play, and he won’t beat you.

    And what happens when the game gets put into Keller Chryst’s hands? A 52% completion rate, 6.68 yards per attempt (good for 105th nationally) and lots of three-and-outs. He’s really bad. The kind of bad that has me wishing I’d have walked on somewhere like Stanford. TJ Ostrander and Tavita Pritchard (who the fuck?) were the QBs there during my collegiate tenure. Andrew Luck didn’t show up until I was a senior. I realize Stanford is one of the top academic institutions in the world, but they continually recruit big, white, burly turds at QB who can’t move in the pocket, with few exceptions.

    Haven’t even talked about Dante Pettis or Jake Browning yet. And I really don’t need to. One of the best weapons in the country on offense and special teams, Pettis can change the game at any moment. Browning is being asked to do less this year, and Washington is still running away with games. Expect this to be no different. Washington 41-17.

    • S CAROLINA -7. Florida’s players have packed it up and gone home for the season. Muschamp got beat a year ago. He’s out for blood.

      IRISH -3. Miami can’t keep up. And I can’t pick against the Irish when in the midst of a playoff hunt.

      COWBOYS +3. Atlanta doesn’t look like a team that should be favored at all right now. And too much weight being put on the Zeke suspension here. Cowboys have options in the backfield, and they have a QB who knows how to lead.

      BROWNS +12.5. The Browns can focus solely on stopping the pass this week, as the Lions don’t run the football. Lions D is off and on, and I think the game stays within 10 points in the dome.

      RAMS -11. Highest scoring offense in the league, and best point differential in the league. Against Tom fucking Savage.

  • cwonder23

    Cardinals +6 (Push)

    Boston College +3

    MSU +15.5

    Iowa +11.5

    All Play: ND -3

    Essay:

    UAB +7.5

    UAB has been rolling lately outside of a tough close loss a few weeks ago. What a cool story this year with the UAB Blazers bowl-eligible in their first year back. UAB has a special talent in Spencer Brown as the freshman RB has eclipsed 1,000 yards already this year. They get competent QB play from AJ Erdeley. Bill Clark has the special sauce this year and I think UAB could actually win this road game. UAB 31 – UTSA 28.

  • LittleBallofHate

    One biscuit picks — UC (+2.5), Washington (-6), Browns (+12.5), Steelers (-10)
    All Play — The U (+3). I’m a Notre Dame fan but this is a tough road game and Miami’s defense is good. Plus if the Irish win by 1 or 2 I walk away happy.
    Essay
    Jags -4 vs. Chargers
    As much as the Browns big number and the Lions on a short week is a siren song to go all in for a Play of the Year, I remember how bad they bombed coming off a bye last year. And this team is worse.
    Jacksonville has been rolling along pretty well and looked good in picking apart the Bengals last week. The Chargers are coming off a bye week and have been competitive but I like the Jaguars defense being able to get pressure on Rivers and the secondary being able to neutralize the Chargers receivers.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    New Mex
    Lions
    Giants
    TCU
    ND

    MIzzou

    The Butch Jones death march has been on. Mizzou has been scoring like crazy and the Vols don’t score at all. I hate laying double digits but I just think this one gets real ugly real quickly. MIzzou QB Drew Lock appears to be the goods, and not only does mizzou need 2 wins in the last 3 to get bowl eligible here’s MIzzou’s scoring in its last six games: 34, 28, 68, 52, 45. Why not 40 some more against a team that’s dead in the water?

  • Nick

    Redskins +1.5 vs Vikings
    Steelers -10 vs Colts
    Jags -4 vs Chargers
    Alabama -13.5 vs Miss St
    AP: Miami +3 vs ND
    *POTY Essay Browns +12.5 over Lions*
    After beating the Packers up in Lambeau, the Lions have to be pretty fired up, and I’m happy for them. I don’t see Detroit firing on all cylinders this weekend, feels like the Browns care a lot more about this one. Rust belt cities need to stay together and Jim Caldwell will throw a little mercy our way Sunday subconsciously or consciously.

    Now we must sit back and say, is it good to give this coaching staff 2 weeks to prepare for a game? Will we see an offensive strategy that doesn’t rely on a bunch of wide receivers that we don’t have? I really hope Hue gives up calling plays next year. He needs to focus more on logistics and less on laminated game sheets.

    Shout out to Downtown Sashi Brown for being the ultimate Trickster. I still have no idea what game you’re playing.

    Considering how things have gone so far in 2017, the Josh Gordon news is a nice distraction from the reality of playing meaningless football in November and December again. Hope you have turned your life around Josh.

    Finally, the fact that Joe Thomas is basically coaching our team right now must be inspiring to the players. Travel in general and international travel in particular allows those who think critically to generate a fresh perspective on life when they return home. This will be a revelation for some of the players and should lead to improved results on and off the field. I see this as an outright win for the Browns and I’m not sure it’s going to be close.

    • LOL “Sashi Brown the ultimate trickster”

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Huevos del ano!

  • Art Briles Hirer

    ND -3 over Miami (All-play)
    South Carolina -7 over UF (essay)
    MSU +15.5 over OSU
    Northwestern -4 over Purdue
    Georgia -2.5 over Auburn
    Falcons -3 over Cowboys

    • Art Briles Hirer

      I don’t have all that much to say about this game but I do believe Chip Kelly is about to be the next Florida head coach. Furthermore, I think this is going to be a landmark hire on par with Saban at Alabama.

      Kelly is hungry to re-establish his legacy after his failed NFL stint. There are only a few jobs where Kelly can even have that kind of impact, and none would be a better fit. Florida wants offense. All they’ve ever wanted was to keep the Spurrier magic alive, and while Urban was up to the task, it’s not an easy thing to find. Kelly can become a CFB legend by getting Florida back on track and going toe-to-toe with Saban. Sure, Florida could hire Scott Frost or Dan Mullen, but compared to Kelly, they’re consolation prizes.

      But until Kelly can ride to the rescue, Gator fans get to watch former coach Will Muschamp beat the crap out of Randy Shannon for 3 hours. Maybe they’ll just watch Urban instead.

  • Capitalgg

    [All-play] Notre Dame -3 @ Miami: Based strictly on my mostly-lapsed Catholism.
    1. Miami -7 v. Akron: Early week #MACtion win. Wish I could have got in on Ohio too, but was too late getting home.
    2. UNLV -4 v. BYU: I said in week 2 that I should bet against BYU every week. I haven’t done so, to my detriment.
    3. Bears -5 v. Packers: Bears have been a very good team at home.
    4. Colts +10 v. Steelers: Brissett has gotten better every week. Steelers have been bad every time things seemed good for them this year.

    So I was asked to expound on Jimmah’s bartending adventure in London. I don’t have a great story, but it will ride for an essay this week.

    So we roll up on the Admirality (the losingest bar in London apparently. It was the “home” bar for the Ratbirds, Cards and Browns in London this year), after an afternoon at Emirates Stadium and our first EPL adventure. The home side, Arsenal, pulled out a victory after a listless first half and I connected with fans who disdain the home side as much as we all do in Cleveland. i mean we want them to do well, but realistically, we resent them on some level. Anyways, that was a lot of fun once we realized the 100 pounds we spent on tickets wasn’t wasted.

    Anyways, we roll up on this party that is overflowing and I was trying to find my friends. So plus points for adventure. Anyways, I venture in and there’s a murmur in the crowd that Jimmah is bartending. Eventually I belly my way towards the bar less interested in what Jimmah’s serving and more interested in getting some alcohol in my system. As serendipity would have it, I end up right in front of Jimmah. He asks what I want and I say I don’t care, just pour me something already. He pours a Fullers something or other (decent beer, whatever) and I offer to pay. Jimmah’s not taking money and his handler waves off my money. So I guess Jimmah bought that round. I thank him, tell him I’m a season ticket holder, he thanks me and I retreat to find my friends somewhere in this packed house.

    Now I find my friend, let’s call him English Paul because he’s from England and his name is Paul. I’ve gotten to know Paul over the years on a Browns’ football message board, and he made a trip to Cleveland a few years back and sat in my seats. So it was nice to have a visit with Paul on his turf. Anyways, a few rounds in, Paul and his friend go up to buy a tray of pints and he returns with beers and a story.

    So Paul went up and Jimmah was still slinging pints. So Paul makes some small talk with fraud-committing truckstop owner and caps it off in a way only a true Brit can. He asks Jimmah, point blank, “How’s the FBI investigation going?”. Jimmah gets a weird uncomfortable look on his face (there’s a picture, I don’t have it or I’d post it here) and that’s the end of Jimmah’s bartending adventure. The Browns’ owner ghosts the party at this point.

    And that is how my friend English Paul chased Jimmy Haslem from the Browns Backers party in London, England. Alabama -13.5 @ Mississippi St.

  • Dave Borcas

    Seattle -6 tonight

  • HitTheHorns

    Essay Seahawks -6
    Since my genius contrarian picks have me missing my essay every week, lets go with a square pick and see how it feels. 32 year old Adrian Peterson is coming off a late afternoon Sunday game where he carried 37 times. Give that man some Percocet, but I’d imagine he’s tired. Drew Stanton is garbage. These so called sharps have moved the line down from 6.5 even though 78% of the “squares” are on Seattle, but really, why won’t these sharps show themselves? I am showing Drew Stanton with a 11-4-1 ATS record in his career when starting and is 7-3 SU with Arizona, but he sucks. So these numbers are just trying to fool me into not picking the obvious winner. Here’s the stat I will trust: Seattle has won its last 4 Thursday night games by a combined 97-31 score, all by at least 12 points. Plus Bruce Arians called a crossing route for Dennis Northcutt with a chance to beat the Steelers in a playoff game, so he’s not the brightest.

    • HitTheHorns

      Ohio State, Miami Hurricanes

  • cwonder23

    Cards +6 for one cheddar point tonight.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Cards +6: Seattle is completely overvalued and no Earl Thomas is a problem

    • CLEVTA

      2. Miami (all play)
      3. Miss St +13.5
      4. Purdue +4
      5. UTSA -7.5

      • CLEVTA

        6. Bengals +4.5 (essay): bengals have looked terrible much of this season but when you examine why you’ll see it’s bc of that crappy OL. Against teams with great pass rushes like Pitt (#4) and Jax (#1) plus good Ds in Houston (at the time) and Baltimore the Bengals get crushed. Against everyone else (Colts, Browns, Bills, GB) they either cover or win outright. None of those 4 have top 20 sack numbers. Titans come in ranked 2nd last in sacks with a mediocre secondary going against the most motivated player in the NFL today in AJ Green. Expect a monster day from him and a win from the Bengals

  • Jaxbch Josh

    GA At AUB- GA -2. THINK THIS GA TEAM IS REALLY GOOD.
    STEELERS@ INDY BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. PITT -10
    COWBOYS @ ATLANTA- ZEKE OR NO ZEKE I LIKE THE COWBOYS +3
    MIAMI VS ND- GIVE ME THE CONVICTS AKA MIAMI +2.5 ND INABILITY TO PASS COMES INTO PLAY HERE
    JAGUARS VS CHARGERS- GIVE ME THE RED HOT JAGUARS -4 AND THAT BEAST OF A DEFENSE TO BREAK PHILLIP RIVERS 6 GAME WINNING STREAK
    ESSAY: NC STATE @ BC
    THERE IS NO 2ND COMING OF MATT RYAN. I JUST THINK THIS NC STATE TEAM IS VERY TALENTED AND BC WELL THEY ARE A SMART SCHOOL AND I JUST FEEL NC STATE HAS MORE PLAYMAKERS. THIS GAME BEING A HIGH NOON GAME IN BC, I BELIEVE THE HOMEFIELED ADVANTAGE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS MOST OF THE STUDENTS WILL STILL BE IN A FOG FROM CAMBRIDGE SQUARE.
    GIVE ME THE WOLFPACK -3.5

  • Dave Kolonich

    LSU (-16.5) over Arkansas
    Clemson (-16) over FSU
    49ers (+1) over NYG
    Falcons (-3) over Dallas
    AP – Notre Dame (-3) over Miami

    Essay – Georgia (-2.5) over Auburn

    I can only think of Dr. Strangelove when trying to explain my Week 10 performance. “He went a little funny in the head….” as I took Arkansas as my Essay pick and decided to load up on some three-plus TD favorites that I haven’t watched before. So much for my time in the Top Three in this contest. This week, I really thought about focusing on the Big Ten but I truly don’t believe there’s a good bet in that bunch. And until Urban Meyer starts feeling phantom chest pain again, I’m not touching OSU. We’ll stick with Georgia, who is probably the best team in the country for another few weeks at least.

  • Troy Bunting

    NC State -3 v Standford
    West Virginia +2.5 @ K-State
    Georgia -2.5 @ Auburn
    ASU +2.5 @ UCLA
    All Pick – Notre Dame -3 at Miami

    Essay
    Saints -2.5 at Bills

    6 Game Saints Win Streak + NY Jets Defense Dance Party Win vs. Bills = Sunday Saints beat down. Saints are playing really well across the board. Defense is forcing turnovers, a stable of running backs is crushing it (two top ten fantasy players) and Drew Bees can typically find a way to win. I’ve picked the Bills a handful of times this year only to be let down. They looked promising for a few weeks but have hit rock bottom. Betting them last week only to watch the dumpster fire Jets literally throw a dance party shitting on Tyrod and the Bills. NO too strong this week, even without the comfort of the Benz dome.

  • Peter Wendler

    ***ESSAY***
    South Carolina -7 vs. Florida

    My SEC sources are baffled at this line. It is quite obvious the Florida players (the ones who aren’t suspended) are having a difficult time dealing with death threats… I mean Jim McElwain’s departure. Randy Shannon has no clue who to start at QB, and the one who does play is getting absolutely no protection from a terrible O-line. On the South Carolina side, Jake Bentley just keeps moving the chains, and will continue to against a remarkably bad Florida defense. Here is a stat for you: Florida’s defense allowed 42+ points in back-to-back games for the first time since Woodrow Wilson was President! The deciding factor though is Will Muschamp saying “bet you rue my dismissal now!” and won’t let up against his old employer. Gamecocks roll in Columbia… South Carolina 38 Florida 17

    2.) UAB +7.5 @ UTSA
    3.) Boise St -5.5 @ Colorado St.
    4.) Toledo (L)
    5.) Jags -4 vs. Chargers
    AP) Notre Dame

  • so the tuesday lines agreed to were
    MiamiO -7 v Akron (Miami win)
    UB -7.5 v BGSU. (UB win)
    cool?

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    Why do I get the feeling Frowns only bet tonight to try to get ahead of me? FINE. I’ll do it. I’ll take the Seahawks (-6) over the Cardinals on Thursday. Stanton was 15 of 30 versus that vaunted 49ers defense, so I have to imagine a pick-6 or 2 INTs are coming in this one.

  • Prime cut of MACtion here, folks. Give me my Ohio University Bobcats for a point.

  • pheasantpants

    Rockets -3.5 at Peden Stadium

  • Peter Wendler

    Toledo for 1 biscuit

  • thatsfine

    UBuff -7.5 – Win
    Toledo -3.5 Essay

    Let’s essay the Rockets on the road. Surprised this is less than a TD for the spread considering Toledo has looked excellent, only losing to a U. Miami team that happens to be undefeated and in clear contention for a CFP spot. As usual Toledo is sporting a productive offense as per usual, but this year their defense is playing well and that is overlooked. Over 5 MAC conference games they’re only giving up 16 ppg, including holding perennial MAC contender NIU to 17 last week. I hate getting on the wrong side of the hook here, but think Toledo wins this by at least a TD.

    • thatsfine

      7 minutes into Wednesday night MACtion: The Ohio/Toledo game has 2 red zone fumbles and it looks like WMU might hang 80 on Kent State. MACtion is the best.

  • Both of those games are good, but if we’re going to use objective measures to select the all play, it’s got to be ND/Miami: The teams have fewer combined losses, a higher combined ranking, and both teams are locks to make the playoff if they win out (as opposed to two loss Auburn … 2 losses!). Plus this is a historic matchup where both teams haven’t been this good in forever, and the game is at night so more people will be able to watch.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    George Tech +3
    UCF -38
    OSU -15.5
    Illinois +9
    ****Browns +12.5****
    AP Auburn (Not valid in all areas. This offer subject to change without notice. Actual mileage may vary)

    • actovegin1armstrong

      **** I am a daydream believer and a homecoming queen and I know that not trading 2nd and 3rd round picks for a backup quarterback is a brilliant thing to do. I choose to believe it was intentional. They are saying “T.37 was woefully inadequate, T.38 is not working, we were waiting for a suitable version of T.39 to send the fax in question.”
      Slam Dunk for Downtown Sashi Brown!
      The Browns are getting their defense back! Garrett and Ogunjobi will make the defensive line rather formidable again, they shall be able to greatly decrease the time that Matthew Stafford will have to find the receiver that Jabrill Peppers leaves open. Jason McCourty is terrific, he has been the biggest loss. McCourty will be able to cover a receiver. That shall hopefully have Matthew Stafford who has recently risen to the realm of absolutely average returning to his longstanding approach of two looks and panic.
      If the Browns’ offense manages to remember which direction they are going and at least take some time off the clock and “matriculate the ball” towards the correct end zone there is no way Detroit wins this game by more than 12.5 points.****

      • thatsfine

        Peppers lining up 45 yards deep ensures that every receiver has a chance to be open.

        • I love how Peppers lining up 45 yards deep has become a Browns thing now that everybody knows to make fun of. Like texting plays to the sidelines or throwing a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 8.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        MB, please drop George Tech and “I shall gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.” I mean, please give me Auburn for a biscuit and,
        AP Miami +3 (My AP mantra was, “Not ND, Not ND, Not ND” I did not want to pick this game. My daughter in her infinite wisdom picked Miami because it is in the same state as Disney world. She will be picking all of my AP’s for the rest of the year. )

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