Cheddar wk 8, Falcons +3 at Pats

Pretty easy choice for the all-play this week (although personally I like the Skins/Eagles MNF game better). Moving forward, when a poll is used we’ll do a thing where your username will be needed in order to place a vote. As for the rest of the mishaps here on the site last week… well I got seven points so I can’t rule out more of the same if I find myself in the hunt late.
Haha, jk.
Congrats to FlyHighCharlieFrye on his Lobsterfest and to Thatsfine on the ballsy POTY.

Download (PDF, Unknown)

  • John

    My NFL picks
    Dolphins -3 to the jets
    Cowboys -6 to the 49ers
    Pats -3 to the Falcons

  • TS_Butler

    ND (W)
    Panthers -3
    Vikes -5.5
    Chargers -2
    AP: Falcons +3
    Essay: Bills -3

    For the first time in a long time the Bills look like a well coached team. I say that only to emphasize the fact that Buffalo had an extra week to prepare for the Bucs and I expect that they used their time wisely. The Bills defense has been solid all season long, and Winston has been anything but. He hasn’t been throwing all week and I don’t think he’ll be at 100% for this game. My biggest concern with this wager would be if Fitzpatrick comes in early and leads the Bucs to a revenge win against his former team. Hopefully Winston can last the entire game and throw a couple interceptions. Go Bills.

    • TS_Butler

      I didn’t intend for this to be my POTY but I see it filled in on the standings. Did I accidentally check the box?

  • Matt Lawrence

    Dolphins -3
    Pats -3
    Browns +5.5**

    All season long I have watched and laughed at all the Browns faithful on here lose pick after pick, essay after essay, on the Browns. This week it seems everyone has thrown in the towel on them and taken Titans -5.5. So, what do I do in response? I’ll make the Browns my essay pick, not watch a single second of the embarrassing organization, and hope, once again, that everyone that picks the Browns game is wrong. Mariota is limited with his inability to escape the pocket which you can tell makes him uncomfortable. Browns lose, but stay within the number.

    • Matt Lawrence

      Can I get an Amen?!?!

  • HitTheHorns

    Ravens Essay
    Joe Flacco has 1 TD and 6 INT last four games. Vikings have the #3 ranked run defense. So should be tough sledding for Baltimore offense. Case Keenum has been very solid since taking over for Bradford; Vikes have the leading yardage receiver in the NFC (Adam Thielen, 489 yards). I’ll take the Ravens coming off a loss to Chicago and with Flacco looking done in an effort to be contrarian.
    Browns
    Steelers
    Patriots
    Tampa Bay

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: LA Chargers. Laughing so hard at this number. -1 really? Donkeys are high powered outfit with chance to creep back to a half game from division lead while bolts are dysfunctional turd mess that has no home field. This is straight baiting at its finest. They could have set this at Donkeys -3 and still have gotten more Donkey action. Easy choice for me this week, will go with Bolts for the essay.

  • Hawkaholic

    Steelers -5.5
    Broncos +2
    Niners +6.5
    AP: Pats -3
    Essay: Panthers -3 vs Chicago

    The Panthers are coming off a thursday night loss last week against the Eagles therefore they have had a little longer rest to get fresh for this one. Chicago is coming off a win last week but is still a bad team. The Bears aren’t going to let Trubisky run wild with the offense quite yet and will continue to run the ball (which they did quite effectively last week against the Ravens). Carolina’s defense is ranked 7th against the run, Chicago’s offense is ranked 26th in the league and with Carolina having a few extra days of time breaking down film, i just think that is bad news for the Bears (no pun intended). Cam Newton > Mitchell Trubisky at this point in time, Panthers 27 Bears 10

  • Many thanks to Agnes, Cwonder, JPB, and MSP for joining me in spectacular essay fails. Really thought Idaho down 35-7 after one quarter would take the cake but TTU and BallU stepped up and did their bit. .. Onward to next week’s essay!

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      Thanks for noticing!
      However, my Hawaii essay last year takes the trophy by loosing to Michigan by 60 points.

  • oxr

    Running out of college games to flip coins at! Washington State -10 over Colorado, I guess.

    • oxr

      All-Play Falcons +3 over Pats

      Panthers -3 over Bears – I feel like I have never once picked a Bears game correctly either way but by all rights this should be a mismatch
      Saints -5.5 over Packers – just not feeling the Hundley
      Jets +3 over Dolphins – taking the points in the AFC East

      Essay Bills -3 over Bucs – I’m not exactly thrilled about any of these games but I will grudgingly ride with Buffalo at home coming off a bye, and a top-ten versus bottom-ten DVOA tilt with potentially favorable matchups across the board: banged up James Winston against a surprisingly (?) legitimate Bills defense, and generally tepid Bills offense against probably the worst D they have come up against. Seems to me this line could easily be higher than 3; also that the Bucs may actually not be very good. (On the other hand it must be conceded that at least they didn’t lose to the Bengals two weeks ago, so they have that going for them.)

  • Nick

    Illinois (w)
    Navy (l)
    Falcons +3 vs Pats
    Eagles -4.5 vs Skins
    Jags -3 vs Colts
    Panthers -3 vs Bears***Essay no essay

  • Hawkaholic

    Notre Dame for 1 point…rest will be NFL picks tomorrow

  • Matt Borcas

    Notre Dame
    Arkansas
    Ole Miss

    • Matt Borcas

      Cowboys
      Falcons

    • Matt Borcas

      Essay: Eagles

      The Eagles beat the Redskins 30-17 in DC in Week 1, and I don’t think that it was a fluke. 5-1 Philly is on a roll, and they’ve had extra time to prepare for tonight’s matchup with a Thursday night tilt last week. Admittedly, the Redskins have also looked solid since losing to the Eagles, but I still expect them to take a step back offensively without offensive wunderkind and new Rams HC Sean McVay. Carson Wentz will continue to thrive with Josh Norman out, and LeGarrette Blount is quietly averaging 5.6 yards per carry. On the other hand, Terrelle Pryor has been a disappointment for Washington and rookie RB Samaje Perine has been nothing special. Take the Eagles!

  • pheasantpants

    UCF -7
    MSU -6.5

    • pheasantpants

      LSU – 6.5
      Falcons +3 all play

    • pheasantpants

      ESSAY Washington State -10

      I already hit essay paydirt with Mike Leach’s squad once this season, but this essay is borne as much from a lack in confidence in picking NFL games as it is in confidence in the Cougars, who were whitewashed in Berkeley last Friday. Still, the trendy playoff pick (well I was picking them) has tons left to play for despite the loss, including its first conference title in fifteen years and an outside shot at those playoffs.

      On the other side, Colorado has one decent win and a bunch of meh results. Contrast that with Cal. which had wins on the road at UNC, at home to Ole Miss, and had made a very good showing at home against USC. CU’s best game, win or loss, was a win over Colorado State in week 1 at a neutral site.

      I have some trepidation about this pick because the public is heavily on Wazzu, but they’re very good against the number this year, and surely a lot of that sentiment is due to wildman genius Mike Leach coming off an embarrassing loss. I think these Cougs have something to prove, and they’ll be looking to stomp on the gas pedal whenever possible.

  • Jeff Smith

    Syracuse +16.5
    Michigan State -6.5
    Tulane +11.5
    USC +3.5
    Falcons +3 (all play)
    Panthers -3 (essay – will write up shortly)

    • Jeff Smith

      Panthers -3 (Essay – Game Of The Year)

      Well, to say my season may be on the line here is a bit of an understatement. Carolina is coming off a little extra rest and preparation against a Bears squad that is still feeling their way around on the offensive side of the ball. Benjamin is expected to play, however Kuechly will be out, but I don’t expect that to be the deciding factor here. The Panthers get Ryan Kalil back this week which should be a nice boost to their O-Line. The Bears were stretched to their limits last weekend with an overtime affair in Baltimore. I expect the Panthers to establish some early momentum and force Mitch into some quick decisions. Message to Cam Newton and Ron Rivera – please save my season!

  • 1. Washington St. -10

    • 2. Titans -5.5
      3. Miami -3
      4. Cowboys -6
      5. All Play: Pats -3
      6. Essay: Panthers -3

      Essay: Panthers -3

      Two Thursdays ago, I was in attendance to see Carson Wentz lead the Eagles to a Thursday night victory on the road against the Panthers. My company’s seats are set up where 1 is kind of on their own and I took that seat. Next to me was an Eagles fan taking great joy in the game (along with what seemed like 40% of the stadium). It was a pretty good game being it was close, with some tense moments. Not having a real rooting interest I was on the edge of my seat watching closely. At one point the Eagles fan next to me on a third and short for the Panthers said something along the lines of “don’t worry, Cam’s got this”, seemingly thinking I was nervous over this moment. Once I told him I didn’t really care for the outcome as I’m a Browns fan he couldn’t stop thanking me enough for Wentz. Not related to the reasons why I’m taking the Panthers, but just a story that I am tired of telling because it seems like every year this is the case and it happened at a Panthers game.

      As far as why I’m taking the Panthers. They’re on extra rest, they’ve got the more experienced QB, and weather may play a role today. I’ll take Cam to make less errors than Mitch, allowing the Panthers to win a tough and gritty road game in what ends up being a pretty convincing fashion. Panther’s being without Luke isn’t ideal, but it doesn’t scare me off at all due to the extra time to prepare and going without him for the end of season run last year.

  • UCF -7.
    VIRGINIA -6.5.
    SMU -7.5

    $$$ ND -3.5 $$
    Rare week that I am riding with all favs. So far this season, the Whalens have not performed (lookin at you, defending champ @bnasty99). I’m going with the Irish because I was wrong. I am not a Brian Kelly fan…he will wear you out and his behavior is exhausting, but somehow he manages to hang on.

    The Irish, instead of relying on their inexperienced QB, have pounded the ball and are 8th in the country in rushing. They’re controlling the football and limiting turnovers by keeping it out of the air unless they absolutely have to. It’s about time Kelly made some good decisions on Saturdays.

    I had no idea what Georgia was when they beat ND in South Bend by a point, and I had assumed they were trash and would end up somewhere in the middle of the SEC east. I was wrong again. Now it seems that both teams have an outside shot at getting into the CFB playoff. So I’m a Georgia fan until further notice, and I’m relying on ND to continue to dominate the line of scrimmage.

    Tonight, that should be the case. USC is banged up on the D line, and thus far, Darnold has actually enjoyed turning the ball over. Both bad things when facing a team who’s all about ball control. I’m counting on ND to win this game by 10-13 points, solidifying their spot in the top ten and playoff conversation. The schedule doesn’t get any easier with #16 NC State next week, #8 Miami in early November, and Navy and #22 Stanford to finish things out. It’s a tough gauntlet that should justify a playoff birth if ND can continue to play well.

  • John

    Purdue -9.5 to Rutgers
    Syracuse +16.5 to Miami
    ***essay***
    Texas Tech -6.5 to Iowa State

    • John

      Texas Tech will force turnovers. I think Iowa state will have to change their identity and run the ball, which will frustrate them.

      Iowa State is playing out of it’s weight class- and has overperformed – they gotta come back to earth for one game- and Texas Tech got embarassed by them last year- by like 50.

      Texas Tech wins by 17 or more.

      ps- I’m watching this one at Westgate in Vegas. so there is some sweet biscuit cheddar on this one.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Michigan +9.5
    Louisville +6.5
    USC +3.5
    Titans -5.5**
    Steelers -5.5
    Falcons +3
    You could trot out the buckeyes against the Browns at this point and I think they’d have a hard time covering the spread. This Titans team is playing for first place in their division. They have a better QB….duh, better defense….duh, better coaching staff…duh. The Browns are historically bad, their coach is openly calling out the front office and even though his game plans STINK. Might as well collect 3 cheddar points for my trouble, Titans by atleast a td

  • actovegin1armstrong

    AP Pats
    Buffalo U +2.5
    Cincinnati +7.5
    Michigan State -6.5
    Utah State +4
    ****Alabama -34.5 **** essay

    • actovegin1armstrong

      I do not know a lot about Alabama, other than they are a good team. They are a consensus number one in college football. They have a good coach.
      I would take Alabama on The Shurmur Rule alone. Easy to understand, look at the talent on both teams, take the current line, add or subtract 2 points due to talent, depth and injuries. Then evaluate The Shurmur Rule advantage. The line is past the point of the evaluation of talent, depth and injuries. Alabama is only 28 points better on talent, so that means Alabama should win by 32 points. However The Shurmur Rule effect change is 21 points for Alabama.
      Therefore Alabama will win by 53 points. Simple math on this one.
      Butch Jones may be the new namesake of the collegiate version of The Shurmur Rule.
      Also a quarterback making the second start of his career behind an offensive line that gave up 7 sacks last week to South Carolina facing Alabama is not exactly a recipe for success and certainly no Guarantano of victory.
      This game will however be very entertaining to watch because Tennessee shall be able to use there best player to the fullest. He will get more snaps than ever! Watch for the very talented punter Trevor Daniel.

  • clayII

    Northwestern (+1.5)

    • clayII

      Colorado (+10) *was not in drop down menu*

  • CLEinMSP

    Syracuse +16.5
    Kansas State +14
    Washington St. -10
    Kentucky +10.5
    Pats -3 (All Play)
    Texas Tech -6.5 (Essay)

    Texas Tech comes back home after blowing a big lead at West Virginia last week. I look for them to bounce back and score a bunch of points at home (per usual), and I don’t think Iowa State will be able to keep up for 4 quarters. After what happened last week, Kliff and his guys will keep the foot on the gas pedal this week. Iowa State had their big win at Oklahoma, and then got to come home and play an atrocious Kansas team last week. I think they get a dose of reality in Lubbock today. Tech has 2 weeks of tape on Iowa State’s backup QB. I think this is close early, but Tech pulls away in the 2nd half.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Wake +6.5
    2. Michigan +9.5
    3. S Miss +3
    4. Falcons +3 all play

    • CLEVTA

      Going to make Wake my essay: Wake Forest is as scrappy as they come. Wake is coming off a bye and getting their starting QB Wolford back from injury. But just as important, GT is off an emotional last second loss to Miami last week and have to face the 18th ranked run defense in the country which includes a difficult run schedule of the likes of Clemson, FSU and App St. With 2 weeks to prep for the triple option, Wake caught a great break and should be well rested. GT meanwhile is the 81st ranked run defense nationally so Wake should be able to find some holes in that defense.

      • CLEVTA

        5. Bears +3
        6. Packers +5.5

  • Dave Borcas

    KC -3 (loser)
    Miss St -10.5
    Iowa -1.5
    Central FL -7
    Patriots -3 (all play)
    Cowboys -6 (essay)
    The Cowboys biggest wins have come in the courtroom lately. This whole Zeke situation looks like a repeat of deflategate that won’t be decided until after the season is over. Zeke appeared to be the all American hero coming out of Ohio State, or at least the public view of him fit that mantra. The bye week came at a great time for the Cowboys after that last second loss to Green Bay. Offense has not been the issue for Dallas, the defense has really let them down. The Cowboys defense gets a gift this week in facing a rookie QB without a lot of weapons. We in Cleveland know that feeling all too well. The defense should look good and Zeke should put up some big numbers. I see the Cowboys getting back on track here, or they just might let Zeke serve that suspension. How bout them Cowboys!

  • Some rough picks for now – don’t have time to fill out the form at the moment. Taking my no essay week.

    Essay: Navy
    Boston College
    Purdue
    NIU

    • Dave Kolonich

      Hey – what’s the “no essay week?” Is that a real thing?

      • Yes!
        “Essay policy. The essay component is the centerpiece of Cheddar and its most important component. That said, everyone needs a week off so one essay-free week is allowed. After you have used your bogey, failure to submit an essay will result in all picks to be scored as normal (one point). In other words, your max score is six instead of eight.”

        • Dave Kolonich

          Nice. I could have used that last week…and the week before. Thanks for the info.

          • Well, shoot. Way to push through! Now you’ve got this in your pocket for Thanksgiving weekend or whenever.

  • jdoepke

    Pats -3 (AP)
    Charlotte +7.5
    Tulane +11.5
    Bears +3
    49ers +6

    Essay: Baylor +9
    Baylor is BACK! Not really but I like them enough to take the 9 at home in a night game vs a WV defense that gave up 34 to Kansas. 75% of bets on WV and 63% of money on the home dog so I’ll go with Baylor to lose in a close one 35-34.

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    Well, after a week where I hit my essay but lost every other game, I’ve felt like quite a loser. Which gave me an idea – maybe, instead of looking at the spreads, I just look at losing teams and their past schedule, and try to find losing teams that I think will lose big once again. With that in mind, here’s an all-favorites card that is a sure-fire winner:

    Boise State (-14) over Wyoming: In their two losses versus legitimate teams (Iowa and Oregon), the Cowboys have lost by 17 and 36 points, respectively.
    Missouri (-15) over Idaho: Do I have something against large, small-population western states? Perhaps, but the Vandals have lost to UNLV (44-16) and Appalachian State (23-20). I think Mizzou is slightly better than those teams.
    West Virginia (-9) over Baylor: Baylor is 0-7. And that’s not even what makes them losers.
    Saints (-5.5) over Packers: Aaron Rodgers was my fantasy football quarterback. With him lost for the year, I’m not sure who will be hurting the worst: me, Green Bay or State Farm commercials.
    All-Play: Patriots (-3) over Falcons: I wanted to pick the Falcons, but they lost the Super Bowl and they aren’t the favorite in this match-up. Don’t be a loser like me and pick according to a silly theme.
    Essay: Cowboys (-6) over 49ers: Ezekiel Elliott is a loser. Sorry, I know he’s really good at running with a ball in his hands, but I’m sick of this “Is he suspended or not?” story. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire. But an individual player’s loserness does not trump a team status. And so there is San Francisco. Apparently, Brian Hoyer was getting too close to winning a game, so he had to be benched again, and a defense that has already been decimated by injuries to its young talent just lost its best player to a roster cut. Levi’s Stadium will be the site of yet another 49er loss this Sunday.

    BONUS PLAY: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3) over Toronto Argonauts: Toronto lost to Winnipeg 33-25 earlier this season, have lost two straight, and now have a losing record on the year (7-9).

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    SMU
    Indiana
    Alabama

    rest later

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      Patriots
      Chargers

      Arizona Cardinals

      The Rams flew approximately 16 million miles to London on Friday. The Cards had already been there waiting for several days. The Rams are much improved and have a nice record, but they’ve sort of hit an offensive wall. Beating Blake Bortles, as they did last week, does not impress me. The Cardinals are ancient but getting more than a field goal here seems a gift. I’m on the money line and looking for the Cards to expose a defense that clearly misses God’s gift to football, Gregg Williams

  • Brian

    Temple +6.5
    WVU -9
    Auburn -15.5
    Syracuse +16.5
    New England -3

    Essay
    LSU -6.5
    Do I think LSU is good? No not really but OLE Miss is worse. They havent beaten a competent football team this year. Losing to Cal, Alabama, and Auburn by double digits shows exactly that. They have beaten the powerhouse schools of Southern Alabama and Tennessee Martin, so it does worry me a little bit, it also worries me because I’ve been the worst this year. I’m pretty much the opposite of the Drake Song…I started at the top and now I’m here…in dead last 8 weeks in. LSU still proves to be one dimensional on offense with Darius Guice. I just think they out play them by a total of 7 points instead of the 6.5, therefore I am picking them.

  • Matt Lawrence

    UCF -7
    Texas Tech -6.5
    Utah -9

  • trashycamaro

    utah -9 over AZ State

    Broncos +2 over Chargers

    49ers +6 over Cowboys

    Pats -3 over Falcons

    Bucs +3 at Bills

    Cards +3.5 over Rams Still a rough season. I feel like I am only now starting to get a decent handle on the NFL teams…just in time for what has to be the lowest spreads of the season. This essay is almost a default as I don’t **love** any of these picks. I usually lean on Football Outsiders and DVOA pretty heavily but it has been basically been worthless so far this season (to be fair, it gets better as the season goes along and the sample size improves). We are in a season where the top 5 DVOA teams are KC, Philly, Pittsburgh, Rams, and the Texans. None of this makes sense. Which makes is fun. Last week I went with some extra NCAA picks where I did better (it was overreaction week) but I don’t see anything obvious over there either.

    All of this is to explain how I am taking the #27 DVOA team over the #4 DVOA team and only getting 3.5 points on the road. The Rams have the 6th ranked pass defense but only the 22nd ranked run defense. And while that pass defense looks good most defenses tend to have some difficulty guarding the slot which is where Fitzgerald makes his living. Even better, if we can get another game out of Adrian Peterson I think the upwards trend of the Cards and their play action passing offense if back.

    • trashycamaro

      Titans over BrownsNot sure why I keep overlooking the obvious choice. Going to switch my essay to Titans over Browns. Probably the easiest play of the week. Going to strike the Niners over Cowboys.

      So historically I hate playing against my teams because I do not want to root against them. However, I have been rooting against the Browns for 2 years now. It started as I wanted a better draft pick so we could get great players and that ever elusive QB. Garrett, minus injuries, looks like the real deal so far. The brain trust is charge of finding a QB, however, does not. Really don’t know why they decided any one of those QBs in the top 12 wasn’t worth it. Surely one was. Trubisky returns are eh, Mahomes we won’t see until next year at the earliest. But the other DeShaun, man he is much better than our DeShon. Now he has better WRs, a better defense, and most importantly probably a better coach, but he sure looks good. He definitely seems like a better game player than practice player which is porbably why Savage started the year for the Texans. But there is no question I would rather have him than Njoku and Peppers or whatever other crap we picked up for the pick.

      So now I am rooting against the Browns so we get someone who knows something about player personnel heading the player personnel office. And I’ve got DeMarco Murray in one of our fantasy leagues so let’s go Titans!

      As far as some real analysis and why I am just going to start taking the easy picks:

      CLE are 1-5 ATS.
      CLE are 1-2 ATS at home.
      CLE are 1-4 ATS as the underdog.
      CLE are 1-2 ATS as a home underdog.

  • Idaho +15 at Mizzou
    Petrino’s little brother has quietly built Idaho into a competitive team. Notably Idaho held a 20-0 last week as a double digit home dog before the eventual 23-20 loss to App St. Idaho has the Sun Belt’s leading rusher and their QB is like third all-time among Vandal QBs. Admittedly these are ‘tallest dwarf’ metrics but the takeaway is that Idaho does know how to run and pass. Petrino’s resume includes stops at UL, Arkansas, and Atlanta which, again, is more than you usually get in a Sun Belt team heading to FCS next year. Mizzou is a shit show: no wins since the opening patsy. Drew Lock has the arm and no doubt there’s an athletic WR who can stretch a Sun Belt secondary. But I’ll take my chances with 15 points. Not for nothing but MTSU beat Mizzou in last year’s homecoming.

    Fresno +7.5 at SDSU
    BGSU +13.5 vs NIU
    Giants +5 vs Seahawks
    Eagles -4.5 vs Skins
    Falcons +3 at Pats

  • thatsfine

    BC +6.5 Essay

    BC is 3-4, but holy crap look at that schedule. The only team without a winning record is a win over (3-4) CMU. Losses to Notre Dame, Clemson, VT, and Wake Forest with wins over NIU and last week’s big win at Louisville. This is a tested team. The backup QB may get the start but did not appear to be a step down from the starter last week, maybe even an upgrade. They’re leaning on a freshman RB finding his stride: AJ Dillon had 272 yards and 4 TDs against the Cardinals on 39 (!) carries. And while Virginia’s defense is only giving up 312 ypg, they haven’t played a ranked team this year and they gave up over 6 yards per rush to UNC last week. Feels like a FG winning type game.

    • thatsfine

      Tulane +11.5

      • thatsfine

        Navy +7.5

        • thatsfine

          Glad I hit that essay
          SDSU -7.5

          • thatsfine

            Falcons +3

  • cwonder23

    Cheddar Week 8:
    Raiders +3 (W)
    Michigan State -6.5
    PSU -9.5
    Navy +7
    All Play: Pats -3
    Essay:
    Texas Tech -6.5
    I get it, the Cyclones beat the Sooners in Norman, OK. Iowa State is still starting a 3rd string Senior QB on the road with a rebuilding defense. Kliff Kingsburys team got killed in Ames late last year and I expect them to realize they have the better team and win this one handedly. Matt Cambell has to wait another week for a bowl oppo. Iowa State is tending in the right direction but it is still a Hawkeye State. TTU 42 – ISU 28

  • hitthehorns is in on PSU for a single via email.

  • Troy Bunting

    Essay Pick
    West Virginia -9 over Baylor

    Two prongs to my argument for an old fashioned backwoods West Virginia beat down
    1. Baylor is just awful. They haven’t won all year, they’ve lost by double digits in all but 3 games (including a loss to FCS Liberty who ain’t all that great). The program is beat down, they lost recruits, they lost coaches, they lost all credibility in the land of college football. They basically got the death penalty without an official letter.
    2. West Virginia is a solid team that just hasn’t had the breaks go their way. The last two weeks they took a very good TCU team to the wire (lost by 7) and got into a shootout with a perennial offensive stalwart in TexTech with an unusually good defense and came out victorious.

    West Virginia by double digits.

  • Jmacdaddio

    Somehow, squeaking out one measly Cheddar point last week hasn’t completely destroyed my season. This week I’ll do my best to return to the mean. I’m no college football expert, however I’m not sure why Miami is ranked, never mind #8. Syracuse has put up impressive wins of late, yet they’re unranked. Miami has defeated unranked opponents, which is what’s generally expected. One of these days I’ll figure out all of this and set up my own podcast. By then podcasts won’t be a thing anymore (are they still a thing?).

    16 and a half is too much of a spot to give a strong team, so let’s put three Cheddars on Orange.

    Rutgers +9.5
    Syracuse +16.5 (Essay)
    UMass -6.5
    Texas +6.5
    Jets +3
    Pats -3

  • Chris Magee

    Magee406 Picks

    Fresno 7.5
    Arkansas 15.5
    Charlotte 7.5
    Redskins 4.5
    All Play: Pats -3
    Essay: 49ers + 6

    the beathard era begins. this the rare time where I like both the dog and the over. I think both teams will put up the points as zeke and dez both have stellar matchups. However, Hyde/Breida should be able to grind the ball on the ground. Garcon should continue to be targeted heavily. Beathard also is a mobile QB. This is a home game for the 49ers and 6 points is still a lot in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. the 49ers have lost 5 straight games by 3 or less. That is insane! So getting 6 does seem like value in this home spot. Also I give the coaching edge to the 49ers which never hurts when getting points. Oh what this game in the 90s used to be….

  • GRRustlers

    Week 8 Picks

    Not that it matters at this point but none of my picks were logged last week. Here are some picks to play the other side and fund your kids college of choice.

    Akron (+14.5) over Toledo
    ND (-3.5) over USC
    Bengals (+5.5) over Steelers
    Eagles (-4.5) over Redskins

    Patriots (-3) over Falcons

    Essay Pick

    My wife used to always joke with me that at some point there has to be a breaking point as a Browns fan. Sunday was the breaking point for me. Falling behind the Texans 33-3 and I found myself deep in thought.

    Thoughts raced through my head like how exactly did Sashi come to be in charge of the 53 of an NFL team? Is Hue Jackson better than Chris Palmer? How does this happen? Can Baltimore support two teams?

    It finally clicked into place when I thought about a golf outing I was in this spring for Baldwin Wallace and one of the guests who was there was Kevin Mack. As a kid in the late 80s Kevin was a larger than life figure…it’s hard to explain how big of a deal the Browns were at that time to anyone under the age of 20 but here is where we are at right now. Complete trash heap.

    Let me put it this way…in 20 years who is going to be the Cleveland Brown that a young kid in grade school looks forward to meeting? This town worships the past…I could name 20 different Browns that everyone would just nod and say yeah…loved that guy. Hell…this damn site used to be named after a fricking lineman who last played for the Browns 48 years ago.

    In all seriousness. Fuck this team. Fuck the front office. Fuck the coaching staff. Fuck Gregg Williams twice. Did I use enough bad language there to make dipshits think our DC is cool? Hey the TE is open in the flat…again.

    I’m done. I hope you go 0-16. I don’t even give a shit who the new coach or GM is just do us all a solid and fire Tabor.

    Titans (-5.5) over a bunch of frauds who have no business wearing the colors that our city fought to actually retain.

    • give me your picks from last week and i’ll enter them.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Have you changed your mind yet GRRRR?

  • thatsfine

    MTSU +3.
    The public is all over Marshall but line is down to 1. Marshall’s 5 wins have a combined 8-26 record. I’ll take the points at home on a Friday night. Back with more later.

    • This sounded so good before the game started …

      • thatsfine

        This is why I usually post non essays without comment. Wouldn’t feel as dumb if I had said nothing, or if I just said “Just a hunch”.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Bill (no line but I’m seeing -3 elsewhere so I’m assuming it will be somewhere around that)
    2. Giants +5
    3. Syracuse +16.5
    4. Marshall -3
    5. All Play: Falcons +3
    6. Essay: Broncos +2

    Last week Denver couldn’t score enough to cover the spread but this week I feel they are undervalued getting points at the Chargers. Hopefully losing by double digits when you are suppose to win by double digits will light a fire under their ass. Denver is the better team and shouldn’t be effected by the Charges abysmal home crowd. Siemian and the WRs are banged up but I have confidence in the 3 headed RB monster of Anderson, Charles & Booker. If the Broncos can put up a few points I think Denver’s defense will keep Rivers, who they have beat 10 of the last 12 games, at bay. I just cant imagine that Denver loses this all important divisional game so I’m taking the points and running.

  • LittleBallofHate

    Single biscuit picks — Syracuse (+16.5), Minny Gophers (-13.5), Bengals (+5.5), Niners (+6)
    All Play — Pats (-3). This usually begins the time of the year when New England starts to separate itself from the rest of the pack.
    Essay
    LSU (-6.5) at Ole Miss
    Usually any game involving LSU should have every bettor running for cover straight into a fetal tuck, but this might be the one time to go out on a limb and take the Tigers. Ed Orgeron makes his return to The Grove as a head coach again and one has the feeling that Ed remains just a little ticked off over his exit from Ole Miss. The Rebels had a nice win last week against Vandy but the Tigers might be turning the corner again. Whether it is back on the road or straight back into a ditch will be known after this game.

  • Capitalgg

    [All-play] Patriots -3 v. Falcons: No clue on this one, so I’ll bet the better coach.
    1. Broncos +2 @ Chargers: I get the better team and points? In a stadium in which the home team doesn’t have a home field advantage? Yes, please.
    2. Washington St. -10 v. Colorado: Bounceback special.
    3. Purdue -9.5 @ Rutgers: Purdue is good. Rutgers is not. This is the kind of analysis you come here for, right?
    4. Bills (-whatever) v. Buccaneers: This line should be somewhere around -3. Works for me.

    This season is weird. First, I’m above the red line rather than hovering directly below said line. I put up a 1.5 point week 2 weeks ago and barely fell in the standings. Also, normally, I’m pretty solid on my college football picks and would be better off with a dart picking the NFL. This year, the exact opposite.

    So what do I do? Of course my last 2 essays have been straight out the SEC. DUH!

    Not this week. I’m loading up on NFL games and seeing where it takes me.

    So for my essay, it seems an easy call. Dolphins -3 v. Jets. Earlier this season, the Jets beat the Dolphins in New York. This was as much as schedule win as the NFL allows. Miami spent the last 2 weeks of the preseason with road games. Then the hurricane chased them out of south Florida and their home opener was postponed. Week 2 put them in LA. Then off to NY for week 3 while barely being home and worrying about recovery. All of this with a trip to London looming in week 5.

    There is just no way the Dolphins were focused to play a football game in week 3 and the result was predictable. Jets 20, Miami 6.

    2 weeks ago, I got a chance to watch the Jets in person. WOOF! They are not a good team. They have been more lucky than good.

    So this week, Miami gets the Jets on their home turf after a couple weeks of relative normalcy with revenge on their minds. This is a bad recipe for the Jets and providing Jay Cutler doesn’t completely butcher this, Miami should roll to a relatively easy victory this week.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Raiders. Off my week of work fun-4 nights and 2 days. Half my hours for the month in one 7 day period. Zombie mode continues but I must get my votes in. Pats all play.

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      Its no secret that I made MACtion my thing this year. With a new baby and a complicated spreadsheet system I felt I had to narrow my focus. My plan was all MAC and always take the Browns not to cover. If I had stuck with my plan I would be doing a bit better this year but I am struggling since the weekday MAC games haven’t started and I can’t bring myself to care about a day browns game when I am busy. This weekend we’ll be off the grid (at least I will be since sprint sucks) while all the MAC games will be taking place, but this is the first week with 100% MAC on MAC action. I wrote out all the games and picked which ones I thought would be good votes. Then I checked vegasinsider and found that all of my picks were favorites with the bettors (I also just learned from my extensive internet research on how to play the betting game that it is bettor and not better-it’s a good thing that spelling is not a requirement to be a physician since bad hand writing is expected and you can fudge things like an o for an e). This was the breakdown:
      Toledo – 14.5 vs Akron 92%
      EMU+3 vs WMU 85%
      Ou -19.5 vs kent 61%
      Niu-13.5 vs BG 83%
      Ball+3 vs CMU 54%
      Buffalo + 2.5 vs mia o 83% (the battle of the no QBs)
      It seemed like a bad idea for me to take all these favorites (though its only CB and little $ is on the line, but then again it’s CB and it’s fun to win) so I decided to pull out the Toledo and EMU game and take for my essay Ball State since it was almost even. It’s also the 3:00 game so I may catch the end if we leave the park and find a place to eat that has ESPN 3.

      College votes:
      Ou -19.5
      Niu-13.5
      Ball+3 Essay
      Buffalo + 2.5

  • Dave Borcas

    Chiefs -3 tonight

  • Heading down to Hocking Hills for the weekend with Agnes and the kids for some hiking and whatnot so I want to get my vote of the week out of the way early and Raiders +3 over the Chiefs looks to me like as good a pick as any this week anyway. The Raiders haven’t covered in their last 4 and with a 2-4 record, it’s hardly a stretch to say they need this win against a divisional rival to save their season. Meanwhile the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS and SU this season so far, with seemingly every single one of them on national TV. The Chiefs are a good and maybe even really good but the Raiders have some really good players too and I expect things to even out a bit tonight in terms of both the records and public perception of these teams. Looking for the Raiders to get a badly needed division win (or keep it within 3 points at least) and 3 points for old Frowner.

    Back with the rest later this weekend.

  • pheasantpants

    Chefs -3 for a point.

  • cwonder23

    Raiders +3 for one point

  • Peter Wendler

    *ESSAY* Marshall -3 @ MTSU – A revitalized Thundering Herd is back after a dismal 2016 season. People forget that Marshall went 33-8 from 2013-2015, and this season has seen a return to form. Keion Davis and Tyler King are one of the best running back duos in the NCAA. Don’t forget Chase Litton (9 TD’s to 0 INT’s). But, what really tips this one is the injury to Stockstill for MTSU. The Marshall D is good against the pass (26th in Pass Efficiency D) and total defense (25th). I don’t see this one being close. Marshall 35 MTSU 16

    2.) Eastern Michigan + 3 @ Western
    3.) Michigan State -6.5 vs. Indiana
    4.) Chiefs – 3 @ Raiders
    5.) Memphis + 3 @ Houston
    AP) New England -3 vs. Atlanta

  • Peter Wendler

    Chiefs (-3) vs Raiders for one Cheddar point. Rest to follow

  • Dave Kolonich

    TCU (-38)
    VA Tech (-21.5)
    Bengals (+6)
    Dolphins (-4)
    AP – Patriots (-4.5)

    Essay – Bills (NL)

    I thought of going with the Pats here for Essay as I have a hunch that Belichick’s D is about to pitch a shutout. But, the only team that has yet to let me down this year are the Bills at home. Let’s hope Jimmy and Dee are watching (they won’t be) – and maybe follow the Bills model of a “retool” next year. Take an experienced D coordinator (one with a bit a Napoleon complex, sure) and don’t entirely gut the existing roster but rather play to the existing parts’ strengths and you have a strong home team with an outside shot at the playoffs.

    • Dave Kolonich

      Sorry – had the wrong lines. Picks still the same though –

      TCU (-39)
      VA Tech (-21)
      Bengals (+5.5)
      Dolphins (-3)
      Patriots (-3)

      ESSAY – Bills (NL)

  • ChuckKoz

    1) Raiders +3 (Chiefs – Thursday night)
    2) Minnesota -13.5 (vs Illinois – 12:30pm)
    3) ASU +9 (at Utah – 12:30pm)
    4) Dolphins -3 (Jets – 10am)
    AP) Falcons +3 (at Pats – 5:30pm)
    ***POTY***/Essay) Titans -5.5 (at Browns – 10am)
    I am absolutely done with this shit. I am so sick of thinking there is something positive that may stem from a Browns game. Now I am supposed to buy that Kizer will be a winning QB after sitting and watching Kevin Hogan embarrass himself? That make zero sense. And even if Kizer is better (i.e, back to week 1 level of game manager), there is still this disgraceful situation at WR. So basically there is no chance the offense puts up 20 points. Meanwhile, while there are some arguments the run defense is not bad, I am positive that this dumb putting Peppers 25 yards deep beyond all logic is going to keep being a disaster and the Titans will be just fine putting up points. Side note: I remember listening to someone talking about the Rams in the offseason, saying how Greg Williams (despite the D stats looking good last year) was absolute garbage, specifically at developing young players (consider, Aaron Donald is even better this year and so are the Rams). So that guy is a big problem, despite all his fake fucking swagger.
    Titans 35, Browns 16

  • Art Briles Hirer

    Some tasty picks here to get me a much needed lobsterfest.

    Iowa -1.5 over Northwestern
    FAU -3.5 over North Texas
    MSU -6.5 over Indiana (Essay)
    Purdue -9.5 over Rutgers
    Minnesota -13.5 over Illinois

    Falcons +3 over Patriots (All-play)

    Bettors sleeping on MSU after two rain-filled weekends prevented Brian Lewerke from throwing the ball anywhere. However, Lewerke is good, and the weather in East Lansing this weekend is going to be great. In his first four games, he averaged 240 yards passing, 62 yards rushing, and 2.5 TDs. Expect an even bigger day from LJ Scott, as he looks to do to Indiana what Karan Higdon and Michigan did to them last week.

    The cover they lost to Minnesota late is a concern, no question. MSU is a very young squad with only 3 seniors making noticeable daily impacts; C Brian Allen, RB Gerald Holmes, and LB Chris Frey. But what I always like about Dantonio is that, in most years, he can get the team focused on fixing a glaring problem from the week before. I’m expecting MSU to get a double-digit second half lead, and actually hold onto it this time around. Indiana sucks at everything.

  • JDope has a lobsterfest in the comments last week. Just logged it in the form.. thus the standings movement. Congrats John!

  • Jaxbch Josh

    Ok Busy week at work so Ill go 1st

    Dallas Cowgirls -5.5 at SF- Zeke is playing. Dallas Oline better, off a bye week in a must win situation

    Tennesse Vols +35.5- just bc thats alot of points.

    Tennesse Titans -5.5 -As a jags fan I need em to lose so they win in a blowout

    ND -3.5 vs USC- ND is a better team they can run the ball, USC cant play a complete game. Plus Colin loves the irish.

    Falcons +3 REVENGE ON THEIR MIND Pats D is a Sieve. Ill tale the points

    ESSAY:
    JAGS -3 @COLTS

    Colts oline is in shambles. The Jags are DrJecjyll and Mr Hyde and since its an odd week being week 7 Dr Jeckyll shows up. Leornard Fournette is a MONSTER, Jags licking their wounds from the special teams debacle that cost em last week. They finally got rid of Jason Myers, michael myers nephew getting rid of the curse of the gimp kicker. Add that up that Jags play better on the road bc Trash Bortles doesnt care about being boo’ed. He cares at home and cant play thru it. On the road Blake doesnt know where the local watering holes are located. Give me the JAGWAS BABY!!

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