Cheddar wk 6, all-play Pack +1.5 at Boys.

Hi all, looking for your help on this week’s all-play.  24 hours to make your vote and don’t be cute — one man, one vote.

Back later with the official all-play and the form.

——Thursday AM——-

UPDATE — Packers/Cowboys is your all-play.  Good repping for that Pac-12 match-up, though, pleasant surprise.  Also a pleasant affirmation of my feeling on the subject which was that Pack/Cowboys was the likely pick but not quite a slam dunk with the phenomenon of Wazzu getting points in Eugene worthy of consideration.

1967 NFL Championship in the Cotton Bowl… not for nothing but the Browns would’ve played the Packers had they not been throttled by Don Meredith and Bob Hayes the week before (btw, the old-time Stadium game pictured in my carousel header is the 1968 playoff game versus the Cowboys which the Browns won.. after which they were throttled by the Colts in the NFL Champ game).

UPDATE2 — I added a POTY tick in the form.  (Okay, it’s not a tick box but it’s the best I could do with the tools.)  I sincerely apologize to those of you who have had to chase me and to alert me that a POTY has been made.  Those a rightfully big deals and I (and I hope all of us) should be tuned in when a POTY is live.. it can be make or break for your season.  Anyway, now when you’re submitting a POTY note it in the question before ‘Essay’ and I cannot fail to notate it.

UPDATE3 — Wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t send accolades to a hot player… and thus Jonah him moving forward as I have for so many others.  First time Cheddar but long time friend DKREBOOT stumbled out of the blocks (1.5 points in first two weeks) but since then has posted 7, 7, and a lobsterfest last week.  Welcome to Cheddar, guy!

Download (PDF, Unknown)

  • HitTheHorns

    Tonight we get our first look at Mitchell Trubisky, Ohio native and another QB the Browns had the resources to get and decided to pass. The 1-3 Bears appear to be heading nowhere and this should close the book on John Fox. The Vikings, however, are a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. Star RB Dalvin Cook was lost for the season last week, joining myself in the Torn ACL club. Sam Bradford should play for the first time since week 1. Bradford looked amazing in that game – he stood in the pocket, threw downfield, and paid the price. His battered knees couldn’t hold up. Bradford makes me very nervous tonight as physically I don’t think he’s right. Latavius Murray has had multiple concussions, offseason ankle surgery, and is averaging 2.7 YPC in his Vikings career thus far. I think Minnesota takes a step back tonight in a game that Browns fans will be annoyed watching. Bears +3 for my essay.

  • CharlesTaylorAllStars

    Well crap, I put this off too long…

    So I’m going to make tonight’s game my essay. I probably like the Packers over the Cowboys more, but I’m going to have to watch this game tonight whether I like it or not, so I might as well give myself an interest.

    I just have a good feeling about the Deshaun Watson project. Kinda have all along. Wish the Browns had drafted him when they could. Said so at the time.

    The Texans have been a QB away for a while. The fact that Will Fuller and Lamar Miller looked like good NFL players for the first time in a year had a lot to do with Watson keeping safeties and linebackers honest. The Chiefs are legit good, but I don’t think they’re quite as good as their track record. I think their offense is still a little self-limiting. And I think losing Eric Berry has left the defense a little more suspect. Plus, I don’t like them coming off a last second win on Monday night.

    TEXANS +1

  • TS_Butler

    LSU (W)
    Eagles -6
    Chiefs -1
    Rams -1
    AP: Packers +1.5
    Essay: Bills +3

    The Bills are 4-0 ATS the spread this year, or as I like to call them, the reverse BYU (0-6). America, myself included, has been sleeping on the Bills all year. As a Buffalonian for the first 30 years of my life, this is especially egregious, but perhaps warranted since I was 15 the last time the Bills had a playoff game, and I am now 33. It’s been a crazy week so far as the gambling gods have been out in full effect, screwing me over in crazy ways: The last second Chiefs TD, Nick Folk not making a kick, Utah’s kicker double clutching a meaningless extra point that ruined my Stanford action. When things get crazy you have to stick by your tried and true red, white and blue. Go Bills.

  • Brian

    For dwhalen again

    Jags +8.5
    Cowboys -1.5

    ***Essay With No Essay***
    Bills +3

  • 1. UL (loss);
    2. CMU (win);
    3. USM (win);
    4. Bills +3;
    5. All-play TBD;
    6. Essay Niners +1.5 at Colts
    In looking for angles to use for this essay, I thought Brian Hoyer/PFW/stats. Just find one branch to hang this essay on and…. nada. Forget QBR, TDs, AY/completion… Hoyer is near the bottom in everything with only Kizer and (surprising to me) Flacco keeping him from dead last in most stats. BUT. There is a comfort level between him and Kyle Shanahan that goes back to Cleveland when — shitty as he was — the smart play would’ve been to commit to Hoyer and not invest the magic beans of Johnny Football. As was noted by a formerly proflic Browns shit-poster. Oh so long ago. A time when we all still gave a shit.
    ANYWAY,,, for Ohio angles you got Hoyer, you got Garcon, you got Hyde, and crucially you got Kyle Juszcyk the Medina via Harvard via Ravens fullback who can give Hoyer what he never had here, a decent blind side rush picker-upper. Not saying the Niners offense is going to light anyone up but it’s built to hang while the defense keeps things close. On that front, I see two first round rookies (STHomas and RFoster) starting and contributing in addition to names like Armstead and Bowman with a rookie DC (Saleh) who seems to know his shit. Niners are being overlooked, Colts an irredeemable hot mess without Luck. I’ll take the Niners for the win.

    • Cowboys for all-play I guess.

    • Dave Kolonich

      Much thanks for the curse you laid upon me. I barely squeaked out 3-3. Much worse, I overthought and overruled myself taking FSU, LSU and Bengals:

  • Matt Lawrence

    Rams -1
    AP: Cowboys -1.5
    Essay: Eagles -6

    The Cardinals seem to have lost any sense of offensive stability since the loss of David Johnson in week 1. While he has looked good at times, Carson Palmer has been under constant pressure behind that struggling offensive line. They have only averaged 16 points per game since week 1 and are a stellar 0-4 ATS this season. I don’t typically make a big deal about a west coast team traveling east for a 1:00 kickoff, but I feel this will only add to the Cardinals’ ongoing struggle. I’ll take the Eagles -6, and I really don’t expect this game to be close.

  • pheasantpants

    Wazzu essay:

    For me, this is about the strength of Washington State-its offense-against the fatal flaw that is Oregon’s defense. This is clearly Mike Leach’s most complete team since taking over this Cougar program. Great effort in beating a talented USC squad last week; there’s not going to be a letdown of emotion. Can Oregon break Wazzu’s serve often enough to get a win? I don’t think so. Playoffs on the Palouse.

  • Matt Borcas

    Washington State -2 over Oregon
    Alabama -26.5 over Texas A&M
    Michigan -10 over Michigan State
    Cowboys -1.5 over Packers
    Bills +3 over Bengals

    Essay TBD

    • Matt Borcas

      Essay: Bears

      The Bears have played solidly at home this season, losing a nailbiter to the Falcons in Week 1 and upsetting the Steelers in Week 3. They’ve had extra time to prepare for tonight’s tilt against the Vikings, making it an opportune time to unveil no. 2 overall pick and the pride of Mentor, Mitchell Trubisky. It’d be hard for Mitch to not be an improvement over Mike Glennon, who ranks 30th in QBR this season; plus, there’s no regular season film on Mitch for the Vikings to study. Meanwhile, the top three QBs in QBR this season are players the Browns (in their infinite wisdom) passed on in the past two drafts: Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and Carson Wentz. Of course, the Browns also declined to pick Mitch in April, which more or less guarantees that he’s bound for glory. Take Chicago and the points.

  • Jeff Smith

    Florida State +3
    Kentucky -10
    Kansas State +3.5
    Oregon +2
    Packers +1.5 (all play)
    Steelers -8.5 (essay – essay to follow)

    • Jeff Smith

      Florida State +3 – L
      Kentucky – 10 – L
      Kansas State +3.5 – L
      Oregon +2 – L
      Steelers -8.5 – pending
      Packers +1.5 – essay pending

      Well, I didn’t anticipate a 3 hour meeting this morning, so by default, the essay is now the Packers +1.5 since I did not have time to get to my computer before 12:05pm.

      Packers +1.5 (essay)
      For starters, the Packers offense has been rolling when all of their weapons are healthy. I can’t help but have flashbacks to last years playoff game as well in which Aaron Rodgers was a surgeon and sealed the game with a spectacular throw/catch to Jared Cook. The Cowboys attempted to come back, but at that point, the Packers were playing prevent D and it was too little, too late for the boys. The Cowboys pass D has been susceptible all year long and Siemian, Goff, and Palmer didn’t have many issues. Their run D also allowed CJ Anderson to look like a Pro Bowler, and Todd Gurley, well not many teams have had luck stopping him to this point. The Packers defense is not great by any means, so I do expect this to be your typical shootout. This is only Green Bay’s second game on the road, so I am hopeful that they will build on last week’s victory against the Bears. Green Bay is also the beneficiary of 10 days of rest, so they should come out fresh here and ready to play against the Boys (it could be trouble if they come out slow).

  • 1. ULM -5.5

    • 2. Oregon +2
      3. Kentucky -10

      • 4. Seattle
        5. All-Play: Dallas
        6. Essay: Giants

        Essay: Giants

        Last week the desperate Bengals salvaged an otherwise awful start to my Cheddar campaign. This week I’m counting on the desperate Giants to handle the Chargers at home. The Giants may be able to run the ball a tad bit now, but even if they can’t I don’t believe the Chargers have the secondary to stop the Giants from moving the ball. I realize the Chargers are desperate for a win themselves, but with the Giants receiving options and a weak Chargers secondary (and me stuck starting Eli in fantasy), I’m going all in on the Giants snapping their loss streak today and covering in the process.

  • ChuckKoz

    1) Kentucky -10 (vs. Missouri)
    2) Michigan -10 (vs. MSU)
    3) Vanderbilt +18 (vs. Georgia)
    4) LSU +3 (at Florida)
    AP: Packers +1.5 (at Cowboys)
    Essay: USC -34 (OSU)
    True, USC has not won a game by this margin all year, but man Oregon State is bad. And they are injured (QB/RB). And their only win is against Portland State and they have no clear path to wins in the Pac 12 this year. So if USC is ever going to put it on someone, this is the time. They have a bit more rest after a tough road loss at WSU. But their season goal of a playoff bid is still viable if they turn the page and win out. So I see them focusing and beating the hell out of OSU. USC 42, OSU 7

  • pheasantpants

    Michigan State +10 at Michigan: This is a rivalry game that frequently features lopsided scores, but I don’t think that will happen today. Michigan has the edge defensively, sure, but MSU has been resilient this year, and capable offensively when securing the football. MSU did just that against Iowa. Michigan is overrated. I could say much more about this game and the state of the two programs, but I’m not confident enough to make this my essay. Fuck Michigan, tho.
    Gators -3 vs. LSU: I have some concerns about the Gators against the run, but the Swamp is going to be rocking and there’s been renewed emphasis on this rivalry for Florida.
    Georgia -18 at Vandy: Georgia really is that good and I have no reason to think that Vandy will lose by less than 20.
    Duke +2.5
    Washington State -2 at Oregon is my essay to be written.

    • pheasantpants

      Cowboys for the All Play

  • Northwestern for 1

    • Seahawks and Cowboys for 1 each.

      • I’ll go with the Texans as my vote of the week for much the same reasons as FHCF below. Just a tough spot for KC to have to go into Houston on a short week against a team that needs to win to keep in its division race and has a really tough defense and a quarterback who, at least at this point of his short career, has got to be pretty tough to game-plan for. Plus the Chiefs are down two starters on the offensive line plus Dee Ford at OLB.

  • CMU and USM. Essay manana.

  • trashycamaro

    Kentucky -10 over Missouri no special insight here, just letting the crowd do the work for my college pick. NFL tomorrow

    • trashycamaro

      titans -1 over dolphins

      Rams -1 over Seahawks essay So unfortunately, I cannot find my historical essay on this matchup. Definitely need to save it for next year. Every year, the Rams beat the Seahawks at home. 9/18/2016 Hawks 3, Rams 9. 9/13/2015 Hawks 31, Rams 34. 10/19/2014 Hawks 26, Rams 28. 10/28/2013 Hawks 14 Rams 9 (covered spread however). 9/30/2012 Hawks 13, Rams 19. All of the preceding games came with Hawks heavily favored. Here, the Rams are favored and look like the better team. Football Outsiders has the Rams as #3 overall and the Hawks at #15. The non-stats based systems have not caught up yet. But the hawks don’t have a stable RB or OL and are still struggling a little on defense. Meanwhile the Rams have been chugging along with their weak link the rush defense.

      Packers +1.5 over Cowboys

      Ravens +3 over Raiders

      Lions -2.5 over Panthers

  • John

    All dog weekend

    Michigan state +10 to Michigan
    Cincinnati +17 to Central Florida
    Florida State +3 to Miami

    • John

      All play- Cowboys -1.5 to the Pack

  • Brian

    Picks for dwhalen due to technical difficulties…

    Notre Dame -14.5
    Duke +2.5
    Texas Tech -17.5

  • Brian

    Western Michigan -7 Still a solid football team even without PJ Fleck
    West Virginia -13.5 Not sold on TCU being good yet, and WVU has a competent defense for BIG 12
    Colorado -6.5 Colorado has struggled recently but Rich Rodriguez is no good and neither is Arizona
    Marshall -14 They are good and Charlotte is 0-5 and very bad
    Green Bay +1.5 Dallas hasnt been as good as last year, and A-A-Ron is looking like an MVP

    ***ESSAY***
    Kentucky -10

    Kentucky surprised me a few weeks ago when they outplayed Florida but lost the game by 1 point. This is a night game, at home versus a miserable football team who cannot score and gives up points like Ellen gives away prizes. Missouri may score a touchdown or 2 but after their disgraceful performance last week against Auburn, there is no way they cover against any SEC team. They are terrible, Stoops has Kentucky playing good football and Missouri will end up going 1-11 and 0 for in the SEC this year…They Suck. Cats for 3 biscuits please

  • CLEinMSP

    Purdue -4
    K-State +3.5
    ND -14.5
    Vandy +18
    Cowboys -1.5 (All Play)
    Kentucky -10 (Essay)

    Missouri is a terrible football team, and tonight is their first road game of the season. Kentucky is obviously not a great team, but a team that is serviceable. Kentucky’s schedule gets a bit “tough” after this game, so I think they will be ready under the lights tonight. Kentucky covered for me against FLA in a night game at home, so I will roll them again here. I think the UK offense has a big night and Missouri will be in the teens.

  • clayII

    Northwestern (+15)
    Michigan (-10)
    Stanford (-5.5)
    Florida St (+3)
    Packers (+1.5)

    monday night essay

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    LSU +3
    Wake +21.5
    Packers +1.5
    Browns pk* Essay
    Lions -2.5
    Rams -1
    Tomorrow we find out if the players have any respect at all for Hue Jackson. This team has to win a couple of games this year for him to keep his job, and this is one of the best chances to get one at home. Anyone that watched the Jags Jets game last week saw the Jets try their best to give that game away and the Jags just refuse to take it. With any luck Myles Garrett will introduce himself to McCown and we’ll get a Jets offense led by Christian Hackenberg. If we lose in that scenario the team has quit on Hue. I don’t think that’s the case I’m betting the players love Hue and don’t like all the media saying they’ve quit. I’m hoping a pass rush will help our defensive backfield improve. If this defense can add Garrett and Jamie Collins that’s a game changer and two nice tools for Greg Williams to play with. It would be nice to see Kizer and the offense play with a lead and lean on Crowell and Duke Johnson. It would also be reassuring if it appears Hue realizes Duke Johnson exists and gets him the ball consistently.

  • Hawkaholic

    Western Michigan -7
    Akron -7
    Pitt +3
    Seattle +1
    AP: Cowboys -1.5
    Essay: Michigan -10

    I like Michigan in this game for one reason and one reason only: The Hammering Panda. Khalid Hill, Michigan’s fullback/TE had 25 carries last year with 10 touchdowns. For some reason Michigan has for all intents and purposes abandoned the Hammering Panda this year, only giving him 4 touches which has only equated to 10 yards and zero touchdowns, a far cry from last years performance. I can only imagine they have been saving him for such an opportunity like todays big instate battle.

    The Spartans have had success lately against Michigan, winning 7 of the last 10 games. Those however were different Michigan and Michigan State teams. While the wild Panda population has grown about 17% over the last 5 years there are still only two known North American Pandas in the wild, Pablo and Khalid, the Hammering Panda. On average a Giant Panda weighs 215 pounds, The Hammering Panda weighs in at 265lbs giving Michigan the advantage in today’s game.

    Michigan 95, Michigan State 2

  • Matt Lawrence

    Memphis -14 (W)
    Duke +2.5
    Oklahoma -28

  • Dave Borcas

    Texas -3.5
    Washington St -2
    San Diego St -10.5
    LSU +3
    Cowboys -1.5 (all play)
    Michigan -10 (essay)
    This game will come down to which defense will impose their will on the other team. Talent wise the Wolverine defense is among the best in the country. MSU has a young and inexperienced offensive line that will face a front seven that they have not experienced yet. Michigan has allowed six touchdowns alum season and 2 were from Florida picking off their QB. With no room to run, MSU will be forced to throw the ball. It will be a long and painful day for the Sparty QB with the pass rush at full speed. Michigan also is coming off a two week rest and prep for their inter state rival. I do not see Sparty spending much time in the red zone. On the other hand I see a lot of short field opportunities for the average at best Michigan offense. Sporty may keep the game close for a half but that young team will tire and make mistakes in the second half.

  • thatsfine

    Tulsa +4.5

    • thatsfine

      NW+15 essay skip
      LSU +3
      Marshall -15
      UNLV +11

      • thatsfine

        Cowboys -1.5

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Vandy – Just like with stocks or any other investment, its always good to buy low in sports wagering. That often involves going with a team that you have lost on several times. A true sign of amateur hour is “if team X doesn’t cover this week i will never bet on them again!” or “team X is so bad I can’t bet on them” or “team X is 1-6 ATS they will never cover”. All of that is nonsense, and that sentiment is acutely built into the numbers. The flipside is also true, that teams on a roll are overvalued. So buy low, sell high. Here’s a perfect example. Vandy has looked outright feeble in recent weeks. Georgia is super hyped up, off that big win over total trash Tenny. I lost on Tenny and Vandy in recent weeks. Perfect time to force the issue with home standing, defensive oriented Vandy vs now highly touted, questionably good Georgia. Vandy for our essay.

  • Ever wake up after a heavy night of drinking and find that you printed out the Cheddar lines and have starred picks? As of Friday morning, I have. Sober Katie seems unable to get it done, let’s see if Blackout Katie can do better.

    Boston College +16.5 vs. VA Tech
    UNLV +11 vs. San Diego State
    Washington State -2 vs. Oregon
    LSU +3 vs. Florida

    AP: Packers +1.5 at Cowboys

    Essay: Purdue -4 vs. Minnesota
    Blackout Katie marked this pick a few different times. I put a large bracket around the whole game, meaning the game is of interest to me. Then, the is an X next to the game – which I usually mark if I think I should stay away from the came. THEN, there is a star next to Purdue, where I look like I’ve gone over it about six times. Ultimately, my emphatic starring next to Purdue takes over. Fleck gives me the creeps and if I sat down with these picks with a Tito’s and cider (all evidence points to yes) then I was clearly most open to receive the energies in the world and their guidance.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    Texans +1 vs Chiefs
    Panthers +2.5 @ Lions
    Rams -1 vs Seahawks
    Maryland +30 @ OSU : hate to bet against osu but seems like a lot of points to give to a team that can score
    LSU +3 @ Florida : LSU coach 3-0 after a loss. Florida struggles to score so I’ll take the points in this one.

    Back tomorrow with all Play pick and a decision on which NFL pick I’m going to essay!

    • Lucy Lawrence

      I’m going to with Rams -1 as my essay. Seahawks can’t score and the Rams have been able to put up some points this year. I think Seattle’s Oline is going to get torched by A Donald and crew making it a frustrating day for Russell. Although it’s something I never thought I would type I truly believe the Seahawks won’t be able to keep up with Goff and the Rams. Seahawks still have a good defense but it’s nothing like it used to be.
      It’s so discouraging seeing all these teams that have been awful in the same time period as the Browns getting better. Rams, Titans, Jags to name a few. 😒

    • Lucy Lawrence

      Cowboys for the all play

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    Go West Young Man!
    The East Coast Bias is thrown off here as all games picked will come from the other side of the Mississippi River. Enjoy some of the later football games!

    Washington (-27.5) over California: Luke Falk for Heisman campaign gets the Cal secondary.
    Nevada (-4) over Hawaii: The Wolfpack’s tougher schedule helps them get their first W at home.
    Giants (-3.5) over Chargers: Wait, this game isn’t in Los Angeles? Shoot. Well, I already submitted it, and like Ben McAdoo said, “We have to win a damn game!”
    Seahawks (-1) over Rams: Did anyone stay up to watch the second half of the Sunday night game? Yikes! Look out Goff!
    All-Play: Packers (+1.5) over Cowboys: Aaron Rodgers gunslings the ball all over the weak Dallas defense. I know Ty Montgomery is doubtful, but Green Bay proved last year they don’t need a running back to put up big time points.
    Essay: Ravens (+3) over Raiders: Seriously, why is Oakland the favorite here? Is this a trap game or is there something I just don’t know about? Yes, yes, I get that Baltimore has lost two in a row and is traveling west for this one, but London trips suck and the turnovers versus Pittsburgh killed them. But E.J. Manuel is the quarterback of the Raiders! I’m sorry, I have to believe there is at least two turnovers (calling one fumble and one interception) waiting for the Ravens, one of those deep in Oakland territory. Flacco is due for a bounce back game, so let’s keep scoring points by picking the AFC North teams minus the Browns.

  • CLEVTA

    1. LSU +3 (Essay): Looks around and sees every single person on Florida. Doesn’t understand why and realizes recency bias is showing its ugly face to the 100th degree. Public hammering Florida and line drops from 4.5 thru the key number 3 and sits at 2.5. Lets dig in here bc I think this is important. Yes LSU has stunk lately, they lost to Troy. Does everyone think that LSU is now going to lose every game the rest of the season? And um Florida lost its only productive QB for the season, Del Rio, and now have to turn back to Franks who stinks. Only real defense he has faced was Michigan and looked totally lost. He threw for 75 yards and got pulled. Then got pulled again when Florida was losing to Kentucky. He’s not good and LSU for all their problems has an excellent defense. Florida ranks 106th in allowing sacks. LSU defense puts pressure on opposing QBs with NFL talent. Lets think about all this a little more, through the lens of psychology. Florida beat an awful Tennessee team thanks to a miracle hailmary throw. Then they make a furious comeback and beat Kentucky on two blown defensive assignments, a terrible holding call on UK on the potential game winning drive and survived a 60 yd FG attempt by UK which would have beaten Florida. They are essentially 2 plays away from being 1-3 instead of 3-1. Also, they were only up by 7 on a mediocre Vandy team last wekk before a backbreaking bad beat on a 40 yd td run as they were chewing clock. So that score was misleading. What is Florida was 1-3 or even 2-2 as they should be? How would the public/cheddar be reacting to this line in that case? Guice comes back this week for LSU as well which should provide a boost to that offense.
    2. Northwestern +15
    3. Wake +21.5

    • CLEVTA

      4. Cowboys
      5. Panthers
      6. Chargers

  • Jmacdaddio

    New Mexico St +10 (Essay)
    Texas -3.5
    Penn St -15
    Utah +5.5

    All Play
    Cowboys -1.5
    Eagles -6

    I’m just enjoying the view from the top before the inevitable return to the mean. This season I’ve developed an odd fascination with games between schools that by all rights should have nothing to do with each other. The Sun Belt Conference spans thousands of miles, from coast to coast (almost) and up through the Rockies. Who thought this up? I’m sure there’s money involved, but how much money could really be behind a South Alabama vs. Idaho matchup? Will these schools have an edge over landing blue chip recruits? No thanks Coach Saban, I’d rather play my college ball at Coastal Carolina so I can go up against stalwarts like Louisiana Monroe and Texas State is a conversation that’s not likely.

    Ten points is a lot of points to give for what looks like a relatively evenly matched game. Time to contact my cable or satellite provider to see if they can get me the Sun Belt Conference Network.

  • jdoepke

    Cowboys -1.5 (AP)
    Kansas +17.5
    LSU +3
    Florida St +3
    Texans +1

    Essay: Bears +?
    Take the Bears plus whatever number Vegas is giving you. I believe Bears are a different team at home (week 1 vs. Falcons, beat the Steelers) vs. on the road (blown out by TB). Throwing out the Thursday game vs. Packers just to support my argument 🙂 Division rival game on MNF and a home dog with potentially a rookie QB starting and 2 of every 3 people has money on the Vikings; that’s all the makings I need. Bears 21-20.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 6 Picks

    Michigan (-10)
    Idaho (-7)
    Colorado (-6.5)
    Lions (-2.5)
    Packers (+1.5)

    Essay Pick

    Quick picks tonight because holy shit what a baseball game. One of the things I have found about NFL teams is that they don’t like being called quitters. You can be the 18 year running train wreck that the Cleveland Browns are but some of the comments from the Bengals after the game can raise the eyebrows. It’s bad enough when you hear an opposing coach tell your coach not to let them quit but to hear another player say you just don’t have any players. Ouch. Keep in mind this is not Brady and Belichick saying this. It’s Marvin Lewis and Adam Jones who have the same amount of playoff wins as Joe Thomas. The Jets have just about reached their season win total and Josh McCown is about due to be stretchered off. I’ll take the Browns on Sunday but fully expect a push here.

    Browns (PK)

  • Nick

    Boise St. -9 over BYU for one let’s go

    • Nick

      49ers +1.5 at Colts
      Cowboys -1.5 vs Packers
      Lions -2.5 vs Panthers
      Browns pk vs Jets***essay

      The browns have nothing to do but give Sashi and Hue another year despite terrible mistakes on QB, o-line, and wide receiver which have derailed both seasons. They have done some positives things, I think, but nothing resulting in wins yet. Maybe that all changes now if Myles Garrett is the next great pass rusher, it will be nice to see #95 on the field today. I’m not sure what Hue does well other than have the respect of most players and coaches around the league. He has not impressed me in his play calling, game management, or general strategies. With the baseball team beating NY in dramatic fashion Friday, and a NY football coming to town two days later, well that CLE-NY juju is hot, and hopefully it’ll stay on the cle side of things.

  • Chris Magee

    Magee406 Picks 2-6
    TCU – 13.5
    Toledo -13.5
    Chargers +3.5
    All Play Cowboys -1.5 (wish I could just take over instead)
    Essay: Arizona Cardinals +6
    The eagles play a pass funnel defense and the eagles even with their front 7 have let up big games vs Alex Smith, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. With the Arizona WR unit healthy I’m expecting Larry Fitz to eat. if not 1 of the Browns should have a big game. As for Philly, Patrick Peterson should shut down Alshon Jeffrey which really just leaves TE Ertz as I am not afraid of Torrey Smith or Nelson Agholor. Throw in the fact that Sproles and Wendell Smallwood are out at RB, leaving East Mississippi Community College Alum LeGarrette Blount to be the bell cow but he is not a good Receiver. I think the passing attack for the eagles will be too predictable and Peterson or Matheiu pick 1 or 2 passes. I just don’t see how you could lay 6 points with the Eagles. Gimme the Cardinals plus 6.

  • LittleBallofHate

    One biscuit picks — Boise (-9), Washington State (-2), Eagles (-6), TBD
    All Play — Cowboys (-1.5)
    Essay — Ohio State (-30) vs. Maryland
    For those doing a double take and going “Why the hell is a team that beat Texas in the opener a 30-point underdog?” It is because the Terps are on their third quarterback with the other two out for the year due to injuries. Maryland did successfully row the boat last week at Minnesota and get a win with Max Bortenschlager under center, but the Buckeyes look like they have recovered from their loss to Oklahoma. It is Homecoming this week in Columbus and the Buckeyes are 70-19-5 in Homecoming games. Urban Meyer is also 9-1 against former assistants, including last season’s 59-point win in College Park. The game might not be as ugly as last week at Rutgers, but OSU should win by at least 35.

  • Chris Magee

    Magee406:

    Mark me down for BYU + 9 tonight rest of picks to come…

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Frowns is driving and asked me to give him a vote for UConn and BYU. He said “I’m going to be in a bar or at our Air BNB tonight and tomorrow I won’t be anywhere I can watch a game tomorrow so I might as well follow your lead.”

    Hee hee
    “The silliest woman can manage a clever man; but it needs a very clever woman to manage a fool.” Rudyard Kipling

  • Matt Lawrence

    Memphis -14

  • John

    I like getting my essay out early (Thursday or Friday games)- then it frees up my weekend for crying.

    Essay
    Boise State -9 to BYU- taking Boise State -9.

    This is more about how awful BYU than how good Boise State could be.
    BYU will probably use a Detmer as a QB tonight- we ain’t talking about the gun slinger Ty.
    That’s a 3rd string QB- and they legit tried out 12 different backups this week- all of them fresh off their Mormon missions. Hey Dan Whalen – let’s get you out there!! you’re about the age of most of the QBs out that way.

    Boise State off a bye- and a loss the week before- this game could be over by halftime.
    which is good- cuz it’s on so late.

  • oxr

    Hopefully beating the gun to pick Patriots -5 over Bucs just on general principle

    • oxr

      Would happily be wrong about this one, but Washington State -2 over Oregon for my obligatory college pick.

      • oxr

        All-Play Packers +1.5 over Cowboys

        49ers +1.5 over Colts
        Bills +3 over Bengals

        Essay Jets PK over Browns – Over the last few years the amount of time I have to actually watch football has decreased dramatically, so I can’t claim to have watched all the Browns games or anything, and I’ve steered clear of picking against them. But I have caught a few drives here and there and – newsflash – it has not been pretty. (Mind you, I wrote an essay against Deshaun Watson and the Texans last week, so this is probably just a harbinger of the Browns going up 21-0 in the first quarter and ending by setting some kind of points/yards record.)

        Meanwhile the Jets basically look like a mediocre team. They’ve lost convincingly to what decent opposition that they’ve faced and have beaten the hapless Dolphins and, well, only just beaten the Jags but it still counts. I think they should be laying points here. In a game that is almost certain to feature several hilarious mistakes, the question is whether the Browns can make at least one more, and God knows they have form for it.

  • Capitalgg

    [All-play] Cowboys -1.5 v. Packers
    1. Auburn -21 v. Mississippi: Despite Ole Miss’s bye last week…
    2. Michigan -10 v. Michigan St.: Dirty little secret… John O’Korn is probably the better QB for UM.
    3. TCU -13.5 v. West Virginia: Am I making too much of the beat down TCU put on OK St?

    For my essay this week, I’ll take you to the land of blue grasses with fake grass on a football field named after a grocery store. The Kentucky Wildcats have been a bit of a surprise in the SEC East. They went down to South Carolina and got a win. They would have beaten Florida for the first time in a generation if they had not managed 2 of the largest coaching/personnel brain farts I’ve seen in, well, a generation.

    Essentially, UK has been a roller coaster. They’ve been up for the good teams and sleep walking through the automatic wins.

    Well this week is a prime-time game, at home, against a conference opponent. All conference games, no matter how awful the opponent are big games in Lexington. A Bourbon-soaked crowd will most definitely have this team ready to play. And Missouri can’t score. So this week, it’s Kentucky -10 v. Missouri.

  • Peter Wendler

    *ESSAY* Florida -3 vs LSU

    Death Valley vs. The Swamp… The Ghost of Ben Hill Griffin (one of the most prolific citrus barons in history… prolly didn’t know that. I didn’t) will not let this one go to the visitors. With a hurricane possibly baring down on Cajun Land, the Tigers minds will be elsewhere. LSU laid a complete egg at home last week against Troy in Death Valley, and Ed Orgeron is already making excuses. Jim McElwain is one of the BEST coaches in America (yes, you heard it here) and his defense will put ol’ Ed closer to the fire, on a usually hot seat in Baton Rouge. Florida 24 LSU 17.

    2.) Arkansas State – 7.5 @ Georgia Southern (W) – Georgia Southern can’t stop anyone
    3.) Louisville -3.5 @ NC State – honestly not that impressed with NC State
    4.) Colorado -6.5 vs Arizona – don’t see this one being close
    5.) Coastal Carolina + 2 vs Georgia St/
    6.) Packers (AP)

  • Ill hop in on UL -3.5.

  • HitTheHorns

    Pats -5

    • HitTheHorns

      TCU, LSU, Florida State, Cowboys

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Pats -5 on TNF

    • actovegin1armstrong

      AP Packers
      Lions -2.5 ****essay****
      Browns pk
      OSU -30
      Kansas State +3.5

      • actovegin1armstrong

        ****
        The Lions defense will be the deciding factor. I like Teryl Austin, he will have the Lion’s secondary looking for the ball and expecting the chance to get some interceptions and Cam Newton will give them that opportunity. The Lion’s defense does have injury trouble, but they also have better players than they usually have so Austin should still put together a game plan to focus on Cam Newton’s lack of knowledge when it comes to “routes”.
        A much less important statistic from the wrong side of the ball is that Matthew Stafford has thrown 1 interception and Cam Newton has thrown 5.

  • Troy Bunting

    All Pick – Packers
    New England BradyCheks -5 @ Bucs
    Maryland Turtles +30 @ Ohio State
    Nebraska Cornholers +12.5 vs. Wisc
    Buff Bills +3 @ Bengals

    **Essay**
    Ravens +3 @ Raiders
    I was on the Oakland bandwagon early this year, but apparently firing their OC at the end of a successful 2016 season means YOU’RE GONNA HAVE A BAD TIME. The Downing story was all nice and smelled great when they played the Titans and Jets, but since has been watery garbage. Bottom half of the league in points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Loved the Marshawn story, but doesn’t look like he wants to play. Offense was already struggling and EJ Manuel is not the hero Oakland deserves, nor is he the hero Oakland needs, nor is he a hero or quarterback. That being said, the Ravens win this game not because they’re good, their offense is worse than Oakland and arguably the worst in the league. However, they have a top 10 rush offense, will control the clock and just like the Ravens of the Trent Dilfer i expect the defense to beat up on Oakland. Suggs, Mosely and Weddle will turn around the 2 game losing streak.

  • Dave Kolonich

    Thanks to the Gambling Gods for Jay Gruden and Justin Houston covering last week’s All Play. And thanks to Mike B. for the Reverse Curse regarding the hot streak…..Woof.

    Dolphins (NL)
    Lions (-2.5)
    NYJ (NL)
    Georgia (-18)
    AP – Cowboys (-1.5)

    ESSAY – Michigan (-10)

    Great revenge game here.

    With all the latest coming from Berea this week, I’ve started my annual “when the NFL contracts the Browns, who should my team be?” hypothetical. I’m trying to focus my search by limiting to my general geographical area. I’m in Owensboro, KY – so this leaves me the following:

    1. Bengals
    2. Colts
    3. Titans
    4. Chiefs
    5. Bears

    The Bengals are obviously thrown out – being in the same division as the Browns. I can rule out the Colts as the fan base is ultra-annoying and spoiled by elite QB play (similar to how I can never be a UK Basketball fan). The Titans are intriguing – I loved McNair and George and the current roster is fun. The stadium actually looks like a real football stadium (a huge plus for me) but the move from Houston is a sore spot for me. The Bears and Chiefs are stretching the geographical limits. Of course, the Bears share a similar crappy QB history. But Ditka is an asshat. Pros for the Chiefs – best stadium experience in the league, solid history and a limited contemporary success rate. The cons however are their current success. It would hurt my being to enter fandom while a team is on top.

    I’m leaning Titans???

    • pheasantpants

      I’m very confused.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Pants, the Browns are moving to London. You heard it here first!

        • Dave Kolonich

          Can’t wait!!

      • Dave Kolonich

        So am I….

  • Jaxbch Josh

    Sea Pk’em- just bc Seahawks will win.
    Louisville -3 Lamar Jackson Solid QB and I watched NC State Throw up on themselves vs South Carolina. Let down spot too following their W vs Noles.
    Jags +9 just bc it is an odd week and they are Jeckyll and Hyde. Should be close. Pitt Wins 28-20
    FL -2.5 UF knows how to win and LSU lost to troy. Nuff said
    Gbay +1.5 – Arodgers >Dak
    Essay:
    Carolina +2.5

    Cam Newton insults a Snowflake. Reporters and Sports Media are all up in a tizzy, Snowflake gets upset and everybody thinks Cam is disrespectful. Cam gets disciplined by pretty much everybody under the sun. Well Folks Cam will be pissed off because the public is hating, coupled that with Detroit being an overrated team. Carolina started slow, but following that Victory in Foxboro, the Panthers will find their grove in Mo Town. Cam will listen to the Jackson 5 and will be motivated to show off his smooth moves running the ball like he stole some laptops add that to the Panther’s Defense being the better side, and as they say in the Kentucky Fired Movie, the major punishment being “SEND THEM TO DETROIT.”

    I know it makes no sense, but Panthers come out on top 24-21.

    WHERE”S MY TICKET TO RENO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Art Briles Hirer

    GaSo +7.5 over Arky St

    MSU +10 over Michigan
    Miami -3 over FSU
    Florida -3 over LSU (Essay) PICK OF THE YEAR

    Lions -2.5 over Panthers
    Packers +1.5 over Cowboys (All-play)

    Having looked at all the lines there were more than a few that seemed very ripe, which makes me highly regret the pick I wasted on Georgia Southern last night. But oh well, I’m probably going to lose them all anyway.

    The Florida line makes no sense to me. This game is in the swamp. LSU couldn’t beat Troy at home. I know Darrius Guice makes a big difference, but what the heck? The line started at 6, which seems a lot more accurate. Then, lots of money coming in on LSU. Maybe bettors are seizing on the Del Rio injury as being impactful. Or, maybe it was just a reflection that everyone is expecting a 4 point win.

    I’d probably pass on this pick at -6, but Florida is going to win this game. Even at their worst, their defense clamps down on everything. Guice is a good back, but he won’t be able to do it all, and the Gators love to create turnovers in the passing game. After the Gators notched 5 picks in their first two games, Kentucky and Vandy were a little gun shy about pushing the ball downfield. Expect LSU to try to win this game on the ground, and that’s exactly what Florida wants. Meanwhile, Franks did get benched, but he bounced back nicely against Vandy. More importantly, Florida has averaged more than 4 yards per carry against everyone except Michigan.

    Take the under, but UF has some confidence and knows they can win this game ugly. After a 30 point loss to Miss St and a home loss to Troy, LSU doesn’t know what they can do.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Almost made that my essay, but the other way around. Also, I am completely certain that The Guice will not play. He was recently released, but he used up all of his eligibility at USC.

      • Art Briles Hirer

        It took me an embarrassingly long amount of time to get this joke.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          It may have helped if it was a good joke.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Conn + 14
    Bgsu +14
    Emu+13.5
    Byu+9
    Mississippi +20

    I’ve got quite a lineup of losers for you this week. I love voting on teams who haven’t covered in at least 4 games since Vegas hates trends and 5 data points is considered a trend-anything less than that can be purely coincidental. (Please note this does not work for the Browns and rules of randomness don’t completely fit in with line setter decisions who aim to set their gambling houses up to earn money.) Only EMU doesn’t quite fit this voting pattern but they are pretty good at covering and losing which also works for me. These rules of course, apply to populations (i.e. All the games over the years) rather than an individual team whose chances of winning are either 0 or 100%. It’s basically still a guessing game but it’s all I’ve got right now.
    Connecticut has a few advantages as my weekly vote-first it is on Friday and I like to spread things out a bit, second they haven’t covered in 4 games this season, nor did they cover their last 5 games in 2016, and third they are getting 2 touchdowns. Looking at the numbers Connecticut doesn’t look that bad compared to Memphis -their quarterback has a higher percentage of completed passes and a better touchdown to interception ratio. Memphis averages more rushing yards than Connecticut but Connecticut’s defense holds their opponents to fewer rushing yards (there is probably a more footbally way of wording that but I’m still an amateur football essayist). I also like that their mascot is a husky just like Northern Illinois and I will be in Northern Illinois on Friday night. I considered voting on the NUI Kent game and taking Kent because NUI has covered every game this year but Kent seems to be behaving in a very Brownsesque manner this year.

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      packers all play

    • actovegin1armstrong

      agnes, you know I love you, but…. “rules of randomness”? That violates a construct of a T. O. E. that I have been working on since I was a puppy. Heisenberg would not be happy.

  • cwonder23

    Ark St -7.5 for one point please

    • cwonder23

      Patriots -5 for one point please

      • cwonder23

        Duke +2.5

        • cwonder23

          Ark St (W)
          Pats (Push) 🙄
          Duke +2.5
          Packers +1.5
          TCU -13.5
          Essay:
          Wazzu-2
          Mike Leach finally has a team he can make some noise with. Their win over USC was impressive. Oregon is still trying to figure out their offensive identity and I expect the Cougars to score quickly while not leaving enough time to allow Oregon back into this game. Autzen is a tough place to play and Leach said so earlier this week. Oregon can’t shake the injuries in the passing game and will lose by a decent margin. Wazzu 35 – Oregon 24

  • Art Briles Hirer

    I’ll get in on the Tuesday night pillow fight.
    Ga Southern +7.5 over Arky St

  • Peter Wendler

    Arkansas St. Red Wolves -7.5 for one cheddar point tonight.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Going Arky State -7.5 for one Cheddar point tonight just because I accidentally saw some of Ga Southern a few weeks ago and they were awful

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      NC State plus 3.5 for one point as well

      • FlyHighCharlieFrye

        Packers
        Ohio State
        LSU

        Houston Texans +1

        By the rule of Cleveland, Deshaun Watson might be legit. The Chiefs are good, way better than most gave them credit for, and they’ll win a bunch. But on a short week here, coming on the road to play a legit defense, this is a tough spot. The Chiefs haven’t been good defensively and Watson-Miller-Hopkins should be able to score enough to allow that Texans defense to make some plays, and probably for Watson to win it at the end.

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