Cheddar wk 4, all-play Miss St +4.5 at UGA.

Mississippi State +4 at Georgia is our all-play this week.

I liked using the poll to pick the all-play last week and the EC doesn’t seem to mind so let’s go with this again.  You have 24 hours to pick this week’s most compelling match-up from the candidates listed.  In looking at this week’s slate, there is one game that jumps out to me but being that it’s college and we’ve done three college already, feels like it might be time to pick a pro game.  Anyway, here’s four games to pick from:

Download (PDF, Unknown)

 

 

  • Dave Borcas

    USC -3.5 tonight

  • browns (tweet), raiders, cowboys

  • HitTheHorns

    Essay Browns

    Must win for Hue. Team was horrible last week in every aspect (except for Kevin Hogan). Kizer never should’ve been put back in that game. He still put more on positive plays on tape (maybe 4 plays) that were better than anything Brian Hoyer did last Thursday. Pagano is the most lame duck coach in the league; Jacoby Brissett has 2 starts in the NFL know and appears to be competent; the comparison I read most was Derek Anderson – he can rifle his first read semi-accurately but make him go through is progressions and its going to result in turnovers. Sounds like the kind of game Gregg Williams can get on tape and keep him in the league 5 more years. I don’t see a path to keeping Hue past this year if this season goes off the rails again, so today is a must win.

    Redskins

    Bills

    Panthers

  • oxr

    All Play Mississippi State +4.5 over Georgia, I guess

    • oxr

      Going to jump on Ravens -3.5 over Jaguars for starters.

      • oxr

        Eagles -5.5 over Giants
        Bucs -2.5 over Bradfordless Vikings
        Patriots -13 over Texans

        Essay Chiefs -3 over Chargers – The old “divisional road favorite” conundrum, but at least Chiefs fans will probably outnumber LA fans at this one. The Chargers gave up a bunch to Jay Ajayi last week so it is not unreasonable to expect that the uncharacteristically explosive KC offense will have a pleasant afternoon. The Chargers have been famously unlucky so far but they’re still losing close games to flawed or mediocre teams and I think the Chiefs might be on another level. Plus, I read that the groundskeeping staff at StubHub are leaving rakes all over the field for Chargers players to step on. What the hell, it’s only three points.

  • Nick

    Iowa +12.5 vs PSU
    ULM +6.5 at ULL
    UGA -4.5 vs Miss St.
    Browns -1.5 at Colts
    Steelers -7 at Bears
    Packers -8.5 vs Bengals
    Rodgers Dalton, what a matchup. Pack D has not impressed me in a very long time, but the home crowd tends to help them, and I think will have an impact on Dalton. Bengals have been a dumpster fire for 2 games and have been heading downhill ever since Hue left. They have likely wrote this game off, and are looking ahead to next week when Vontaze Burfict returns from suspension. Thanks NFL for reducing his suspension so that he comes back against the Browns. I’m just going to hope that Aaron Rodgers takes care of business and puts this game out of reach for a nice cover here. Maybe I’ll have some bratwurst tomorrow.

  • Jeff Smith

    Mississippi State +4.5 (all play)
    Toledo +13.5
    LSU -23
    Oregon -14.5
    Ravens -3.5
    Packers -8.5

    Essay to be released shortly below

    • Jeff Smith

      Essay
      Ravens -3.5

      Well, after a strong defensive performance in the first 2 weeks, who would expect Blake Bortles to be the guy to change that. The Ravens may not be the most enjoyable team to watch around the league, but they surely understand ball control. I likely won’t be awake at 9:30am to witness the start of this one, but something tells me that I won’t be missing much. It’s awfully easy to root for the defense facing Bortles and I think the Ravens will give him fits (unless they can somehow establish a running game). I look for the Ravens to create some separation early and if that’s the case, it should be entertaining to watch Bortles in London.

      (PS – I didn’t even think about this. I noticed that I failed to indicate exactly which pick above was my essay earlier by not including the word “NFL” or just putting in parentheses which pick it was. I can now see how this would be problematic and will be the last time I don’t just do it all at once. Not at all my intention, but if this essay were to only count for 1 (since the essay pick holds more weight), that is perfectly fine because it was not my intent to try to pull a quick one)

      • TS_Butler

        I am in no way a moderator here, but I’m pretty sure you’re fine since your essay was in well before kickoff. I don’t think there is any requirement to state your essay game ahead of time. The essay just needs to be up an hour before kickoff.

  • TS_Butler

    UGA -4.5 for the All Play
    Broncos -3
    Saints +6
    Falcons -3
    Bears +7
    Pats -13 Essay to come

    • TS_Butler

      This is less of a play on the Pats as much as it’s a play against Deshaun Watson. Unless he runs for 3 TD’s I don’t see the Texans keeping this one close. Belichick is going to take away Hopkins and make Watson throw the ball from the pocket, something he has looked pretty poor at so far. The Pats are back at home where they are 0-1 and they will be looking to make amends for the opening night disaster. I’ll take Pats for 3 Cheddars please.

  • trashycamaro

    UGA -4.5 over MSSU

    Florida -2 over Kentucky Hopefully Franks found his inner QB after that gorgeous bomb he threw last week. The defense is great, just need a little more support from the offense.

    More importantly this is something like a 30 game win streak for my Gators. Through Zook. Through Muschamp. I don’t see that changing today. I have also seen Kentucky lose to teams from a fair amount of inferior conferences. Not that the Gators have not done that, it’s more that Kentucky football is just not made for prime time.

    Bengals +8.5 over Packers

    Cowboys -3 over Cards

    Bucs -2.5 over Vikings

    Lions +3 over Falcons

  • John

    Oregon -14.5 over ASU
    Penn State -12.5 over Iowa
    NC State +13 to Florida State
    Dolphins -6 to the Jets
    All play Mississippi State +4.5 to Georgia
    Essay Purdue +10 to Michigan

    • John

      Essay. Purdue +10 to Michigan

      **homer pick alert**
      My Boilermakers can score points (likely in the first half)
      But we need our quarteback to stay upright- Michigan can rush the line.
      I think this game is relatively low scoring.

      Michigan is 1-9 against the spread
      and can’t score in the red zone.

      I don’t think Purdue wins, but I think they cover.

      If you need me- I’ll be at Harry’s chocolate shop (google it kids)

  • thatsfine

    Miss St. +4.5
    AFA +3.5
    Ark St. +6.5 essay
    Tulane -2.5
    Iowa +12.5
    NFL to follow

    • thatsfine

      Ark St essay
      SMU has a high powered offense that managed to put up 36 on TCU and a future pro in WR Courtland Sutton, but Arkansas State surprisingly has a higher average per game total yards and passing yards than SMU. It’s a small sample size (at Nebraska and vs. Pine-Bluff), but Arkansas State should be able to keep pace with SMU’s offense. QB Justice Hansen is completing 70% of his passes with 8TD/2INTs. With SMU’s defense giving up 444 yards/game, 311 passing, opportunities will be there. Two games back SMU gave up 493 total (424 passing) at home to North Texas. Passing isn’t a big accomplishment against the ponies: I think Ark St can have a field day here and their defense comes up with a few key stops.

      • thatsfine

        Lions+3

  • 1. Pats -13
    2. Miami (OH) +2.5
    3. WKU -7.5
    4. Arkansas St. +6.5
    5. All Play: Miss. St. +4.5
    6. Essay: Tenn. -28

    Essay: Tennessee -28

    First and foremost, I don’t know what to do since there’s no ECU line this week (even if it’s a late add I have no intention of picking). As for Tennessee… What a magnificent loss last week. I didn’t see any of the game. When the Hail Mary happened I was out at dinner and barely caught it live at a TV from the bar that was a long distance away. Little did I know just what went into blowing that game for Tennessee. So why Tennessee this week? Because Smokey is the best live dog mascot in all of sports (apologies to Swagger). That, and the overwhelming call for Butch Jones to be fired, leads me to believe Tennessee is going to take the opportunity to stomp a weaker opponent on their home field. UMass is going from playing @ Temple last week to @ Tennessee this week. They are averaging only 2.6 yards per rush attempt. I don’t think Tennessee is great by any means, but the talent they do have should outclass UMass, get the win and, more importantly, get the cover.

    • UPDATE
      go with UCONN -4.5 v ECU which is the current line on sportsbook.ag.
      i’ll update the late lines.

      • Thanks for the update. That’s what I had and, shockingly, ECU would be my pick at that number. I can’t bring myself to pick them which is why I knew I’d never end up picking it. Giving them this week to show me just how bad they are.

  • at Purdue +10
    Miss St +4.5 at UGA
    Essay: Wake +4.5 at App St. Probably a fired up home crowd in Boone for Wake to come into town. They haven’t played each other in 15? years but would seem a natural rivalry. Anyway, I’ve been watching with interest and dismay the progression of Dave Clawson at Wake since he left BGSU a couple years ago. His teams there played a sexy type fast paced offense but with more discipline and with defense than the usual Oregon/WVU/TTU style offenses. Unfortunately and for whatever reason, his Wake teams have had the defense and discipline but zero offense. This is I view Wake’s breaking of the 35 pt barrier three weeks in a row regardless of the competition as a hopeful sign. Admittedly this is a light metric to base an essay on, but with Clawson I feel somewhat confident that the defense and turnovers and penalties.. all the things that make bad teams fail to cover.. will be mostly tended to. I dont discount the peculiar experience of playing at Boone. But I am discounting AppSt sketchy 20-13 win last week at Texas State as a three TD fave.

    Back later with pro picks and maybe Arky St +6.5.

  • CLEinMSP

    Kentucky +2
    Troy -15
    SMU -6.5
    Packers -8.5
    Miss St. (All Play)
    Va Tech -27.5 (Essay)

    Old Dominion played their first “real” opponent (UNC) of the year last week at home at gave up 53 points. Now they go on the road to play a Va Tech team that has a pretty damn good offense. The concern here is that Va Tech will be looking ahead to Clemson next week, but I am not going to overanalyze that here. I think the talent gap is just too big, Va Tech keeps their foot on the gas pedal at home, and they score a ton of points today. Justin Fuente seems like he has his shit together, so hopefully win big here and keep the momentum going to set up a big matchup under the lights next week against Clemson.

  • cwonder23

    Rams (push)
    Temple (L)
    Michigan -10 @ Purdue
    Chiefs -3 @ LAC
    All Play: UGA -4.5 vs Missy St
    Essay: Lions +3 vs Falcons
    Home dog with the hottest QB in the league. This might be the Lions year that they can make some noise in the NFC North. The Falcons are clearly a good football team but I will take the points with a hot Lions team at home. I expect this game to stay relatively close with Stafford sealing the deal in the 4th quarter. Lions 24 – Falcons 20

  • clayII

    UGA (-4.5)

    • clayII

      FSU (-13)

      • clayII

        Raiders (-3)

        • clayII

          Cowboys (-3). Essay bag week

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Michigan
    VaTech
    Miami O
    Toledo
    Georgia

    New England Patriots -13

    Tom Brady. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He’s good. Deshaun Watson. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He’s not ready. Pats on all cylinders. Bill Belichick vs. Bill O’Brien is a big a coaching mismatch as you’ll ever seen. Pats will take away Hopkins, and Brady will bomb at will. Watson will hold on to the ball and run for his life. He’ll eventually give it away 2-3 times. Texans get 13, maybe. Pats get over 30. Maybe 40.

  • Troy Bunting

    Essay
    **Baltimore Ravens -3.5**

    I’m gonna have to stretch this essay a bit. After watching the Ravens beat up on the Browns last week in old-school run the ball/cause turnover fashion, i’m now a Harbaughliever and think they can make a deep run into the playoffs. That’s as technical as this essay gets. The fact that they’re only 3.5 favorites is fantastic for the betting folk because Jacksonville………….. is the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked. No statistics need to be applied here, watching Jacksonville attempt to play football is like watching a small town middle school JV basketball player d-up Shaq. Love the line. CROW RAVENS! (made up tagline – trademark pending)

  • One of my best friends from college is a Japanese native who moved back there after school and now works in HR for a giant corporation recruiting bilingual Japanese speakers to work for the company. He comes through the U.S. every fall to interview at universities across the country and always makes a stop in Ohio for a visit on his way through. He enjoyed football a lot when he was living here and misses it so we always try to make it to a game when he visits. Two years ago, we went to the Michigan State game at Michigan that ended in a Michigan State blocked punt return for a touchdown and one of the most improbable endings there could ever be to a football game:

    http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2015/10/numbers_calculating_just_how_u.html

    It was like being in a building with 85,000 people who just saw their dog get murdered and 15,000 other people who were overjoyed about it. Folks, let me tell you, it was wild.

    Anyway, my good friend is back this weekend and were it not for a new baby at the house and other related responsibilities, we’d be hitting the road for East Lansing and this Notre Dame/Sparty affair where we’d be pulling for the home team. I suppose a Cheddar Bay essay is the next best thing to being there which is as good a reason I have for a vote this week: Michigan State +3.5

    Other votes:

    Michigan -10 over Purdue

    Georgia -4.5 over Missy St

    Colorado Buffs +10.5 over Washington Huskies

    Washington DC NFL team +3 over Raiders

    Colts +1.5 over Browns: This game reminds me of the one from 2011 where Shurmur and Chips McCoy beat Chaz Whitehurst and the Seahawks 6-3. Did you know: Montario Hardesty once got 33 carries in an NFL game? http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=311023005

    Hope everyone has a great weekend!

    • Please give me the Jags +3.5 and strike the Washington DC NFL team vote. Thanks.

  • Hawkaholic

    Fins -6
    ASU + 14.5
    Cal +17
    Okie State -11
    AP: Georgia -4.5
    Essay: Iowa + 12.5

    I have hit my sophomore slump, tough start to the year, time for a big week! I know its probably a little sacrilegious to essay your hometown team but i couldn’t resist. Here’s the deal, Iowa has not lost a top 5 matchup at home since 2006, they are 3-0 in that time frame with a big win last year against Michigan, and then Penn State twice! Ferentz has led Iowa to an 8-5 record against the Nittany Lions with plenty of big time wins (see above) plus a few big ones in Happy Valley. Kirk has their number. I know Iowa was taken to the woodshed last year and Penn State has arguably the best RB in the nation, we are completely outmatched on paper. We should get killed by 20+ but thats why they play the games. This is a 6:30 kick, fans will be on the verge of blacking out, we’ve got the best new tradition in all of college football, everyone is counting us out etc etc etc. Hawks win on a last second FG (what else would they do) 24-23

    • Hawkaholic

      PSU is 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 games…with that being said i would like to lock this down as my POTY

  • NOTICE
    The all play line is UGA -4.5 vs MSU.
    I incorrectly had it -4 in the headline. Apologies.
    Also the late line is up, at the top of the standings box. This and twitter is where we normally post notices on the late lines.

  • Brian

    Browns -1.5
    Steelers-7
    Raiders -3
    Ok State-11
    Miss St+4.5
    ***Essay***
    Florida -2

    I don’t think that Florida is a great football team at all, however I feel like 2 points doesn’t seem like that much against a Kentucky team that hasn’t really played all that well through 3 games. Florida us a defense that will always keep them in the game, so I guess I’m putting all my hope into a guy named Felipe Franks to put the gators into the end zone a few times today. Florida -2 for those sweet sweet biscuits. and hopefully I can get back into the higher rankings. My shorts are kinda getting heavy from shitting them so much the past 3 weeks

  • Matt Borcas

    Purdue +10 over Michigan
    Iowa + 12.5 over Penn State
    Kentucky +2 over Florida
    Georgia -4.5 over MSU

    • Matt Borcas

      Raiders -3 over Redskins

    • Matt Borcas

      Essay: Cowboys -3 over Cardinals

      The Cards needed overtime to beat the lowly Colts last week, while the Cowboys were dissected by the shockingly competent Trevor Siemian. Neither team looked particularly good, but I still think Dallas is solid. Zeke will be motivated to bounce back after being dismissed as a “quitter” by the likes of Peter King and LaDainian Tomlinson, and he’ll be fed carries upon carries after last week’s nine-rush debacle. Meanwhile, the Cards don’t have a legitimate replacement for David Johnson, and Carson Palmer still hasn’t recovered from the 2015 playoffs. I generally hate betting the Cowboys because they’re such a public team, but I have to admit that I like them in this spot.

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    So. I was at a bar tonight, and this girl asked me what I did, and so I started talking to her about this competition. As I described my first week triumph, she said, “Blah blah blah blah, this place is lousy, blah, blah, blah, I like your hair gel, blah, blah, blah, do you want to get out of here and get back to my blah, blah, blah.” Ugh. Which one of you paid her to try to ruin my submissions? Regardless, I stopped listening to her because frankly, she was a Parma 6. However, speaking of 6, here’s the best picks for the weekend (we call that a transition in the business). By the way, if I guarantee my Admiral’s Feast, does that mean I win a free one? Asking for a friend. Eh, either way, here we go:

    Oklahoma State (-11) over TCU: The Horned Frogs struggle to stop Barry Sanders.
    Miami (-6) over New York (A): Jason Taylor pushes his way through a struggling offensive line.
    West Virginia (-22) over Kansas: Adam Jones picks one and returns a punt for a TD. Book it!
    Green Bay (-9) over Cincinnati: The Bengals are still in mourning over Chris Henry.
    All-Play: Mississippi State (+4.5) over Georgia: Eric Zeier’s height proves costly when he tries to push the ball downfield after a late Vick Ballard end zone plunge.
    Essay: Denver (-3) over Buffalo: John Elway versus Jim Kelly is almost as good as Jim Kelly versus Bernie Kosar in last year’s Divisional Playoff game. However, despite Levy’s best intentions, the Broncos have too much firepower in the backfield in this matchup. Yes, Buffalo’s newly acquired Mario Williams will solidify the right side, but can he replace the production of Bruce Willis? Look for a big game here out of Steve Atwater, as he can cover enough ground to negate the speedy Andre Reed and help contain Thurman Thomas. Tempted to make this my all-time all-play, but I’ll hold off on that until I know the game-time status of O.J. Simpson.

  • ChuckKoz

    1) Michigan -10
    2) NC St +13
    3) Toledo +13.5
    4) Dolphins -6 (jets)
    AP: Georgia -4.5
    Essay: Oklahoma -27
    First off, hat trip Matt Lawrence, very persuasive. But I do feel there should be more focus on losing to a BS fake college, let alone fake college football team in Baylor (fake in that they prob should be shut down….but if Penn St is still a thing, I guess nothing is a problem anymore). And speaking of fake, Baylor ran fake Oklahoma drills last week in their warmups, which exemplifies their shitty new coach (hat tip Pardon My Take). So you can take your closer loss to Duke and just go finally die…..you lost to Liberty, so you will not lose by less than 4 TDs to Baylor.

  • Matt Lawrence

    Duke -2.5
    Purdue +10
    Miss St +4.5 (AP)
    Lions +3
    Raiders -3
    Oklahoma -27 (Essay)

    Talk about two programs headed in way opposite directions. Heisman hopeful Baker Mayfield takes the Sooners in to Waco to face a Baylor team headed straight for the dumpster. Oklahoma has won 13 straight games, while also winning their last 16 Big 12 games. Although Baylor was slightly more competitive against Duke last week, they started their season with home losses to Liberty and Texas San Antonio, where they were -34 and -13, respectively. While 27 points is a lot to lay for a road team in a conference game, I just can’t see Baylor being able to keep up with this high powered Sooner offense.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Cal +17 vs USC
    2. Duke -2.5 @ UNC
    3. OkSt -11 vs TCU
    4. NCSt +13 @ FSU
    5. AP: Georgia -4.5
    6. Essay: NYG +5.5 @ Philly

    Everyone has counted the 0-2 Giants out so I think this is the perfect spot to take them. I know 0-2 teams have like a 12% chance of making the playoffs but I don’t need them to make the playoffs just need them to cover. I’m hoping the public slams Philly because I love being on team Vegas. I get that their offensive line stinks but I’m hoping that their offense turns it around this week as OBJ’s ankle continues to get stronger. I just need Eli to put some points on the board and allow his stout defense to keep it close.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Jaguars – Rare NFL essay pick. I can’t think of another team in any sport that I play a higher percentage of time than the Jaguars. I have been seeing the Jags as sleepers for at least 3 years now. Right on target there! For this one, I will take the points in this nonsense London matchup of two mediocre teams. Hopefully Fournette can get something going and the Jags don’t get field goaled to death.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Georgia -4
    Ucla +7.5
    Michigan -10

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      Ravens -3.5** Essay
      Atlanta -3
      Packers -8.5
      Tough week for me had a hard time finding a game I really loved. Admittedly the ravens have played the weakest schedule so far this year, but atleast they are showing they are taking care of business against week opponents and the Browns seem to be a tough out. The ravens should be able to force Bortles to beat them and that can only mean good things for the Ravens. The Jags we saw last week are the real Jags, we can count on Bortles for some to’s and easy scoring opportunities. I’ll give 3.5 to the Jags in their home away from home.

  • Jmacdaddio

    Miss St +4.5
    FSU -13
    Washington -10.5
    UCLA +7.5 (Essay)
    Titans -3
    Chiefs -3

    Once again it’s a late night essay game on the east coast. I’m running a 10k the next morning, so no chugging Jagermeister while watching my picks go down in flames. Saturdays are simply no fun at all anymore.

    I don’t see Stanford as quite the powerhouse they used to be. Yeah, UCLA lost to Memphis last week, and I didn’t even know Memphis had a football team. The lesson here is that UCLA can score points, and they’re getting spotted a touchdown and change this week. Josh Rosen can move the team up the field, which is good, because their defense isn’t exactly “stingy”. Giving up 38 points per game is a bold strategy, which works if your offense is putting up 48 points on average, and should work even better for degenerates who will get 7.5 on top of that.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 4 Picks

    Steelers (-7) over Bears
    Panthers (-6) over Saints
    Packers (-8.5) over Bengals
    Indiana (-24.5) over GA Southern

    AP – Georgia (-4) over Mississippi State

    Essay Pick

    The year is 1984. I am a 7 year old living in Grand Rapids who knows next to nothing about football. I can tell you every member of the Tigers that year and spent pretty much every free minute throwing a wiffle ball off the top of the garage and jumping to catch it because every kid wanted to be Chet Lemon. That fall I watched my Dad fly the Ohio State flag every game day. Our house got egged twice that year…it’s when I found out when the Michigan State and Michigan games were. Never really took to any of the Michigan teams and was scared of the kids at school so I just became a Colorado fan. Makes sense. I say all of that for no other reason than fuck Michigan.

    That being said…let’s all settle down on Purdue. How good is Louisville really? Ohio is just a middling MAC school and Missouri would be better off just going on strike. In no way has Michigan been all that impressive but I think Harbaugh was using the non-conference slate to prepare for the task at hand. Crazy person flips the best kicker by sleeping at his house and it pays off immediately…I don’t think he’s losing sleep over Purdue.

    Michigan (-10) over Purdue

  • Chris Magee

    Western Kentucky -7.5
    Tulane -2.5
    Dolphins – 6
    Bengals 8.5
    Georgia – 4 All Play
    Essay: Titans -3

    The seahawks last 5 road games (including playoffs):
    13.8 points
    3.4 sacks allowed
    2.4 giveaways
    26:38 time of possession
    1-4 record
    Since the start of the 2016 season, Wilson has accounted for 15 touchdowns versus three interceptions in home games compared to an 8:8 TD-to-INT ratio on the road.

    Although Mularkey is a horrible coach for the titans, I see them getting it done at home. Seattle still hasn’t fixed the O-line although Carson is finally an answer at RB. The combo of Mariota/Henry should mix it up enough to make some plays down the field or finally connect with Walker/Decker in the Red Zone.

    I don’t have the exact numbers but Seattle under Carroll improves every month as September is his worst Win-Loss record as a HC in the NFL. As a Buffalo Bill fan it pains me to back Mularkey as my essay. But I do think the titans put this one away. Titans -3 as the essay.

  • jdoepke

    Miss St +4 (AP)
    UK +2
    Air Force +3.5
    NC St +13
    Kansas +22

    Essay: Chargers +3
    Chiefs are 2-0, Chargers are 0-2. Phillip Rivers down 4 with with 2:37 to go at his own 20 (let’s take FG out of the equation). I think he gets it done this time. 75% of bets on Chiefs, Chargers haven’t covered yet and I think they’re under valued, they’ve been in each game. In fact they’ve been in every game for the past 2 years it seems with Rivers just missing most of the time. I think the home crowd helps and I like home dogs especially when the public is pounding the other team. Lets go BOLTS!

  • HitTheHorns

    WVU, Georgia

  • CharlesTaylorAllStars

    I was, by any real measure, bad at picking football games last week. The games I won were a) because I was forced to pick Clemson/Louisville, b) because the Browns are consistent in their methodology of failure and c) because great man and fan-favorite Cleveland Frowns bailed me out of a bad pick by insisting I pick my alma-mater is a road-trip game.

    Alas, I cannot count on the same good fortune every week. I may have to figure out a way to actually travel time or, failing that, at least have good ideas about things in the present. My record with both is sketchy at best.

    In an effort to at least mitigate my embarrassment upon the failure of my present sense impressions of the future fail to manifest in the actual future, I will refrain from justifying my non-essay picks as I usually do. I will say that I really wanted to pick against Michigan this week but there was too much public money on Purdue, which is terrifying for a lot of reasons. Non-essay picks are as follows:

    FSU -13
    VANDY +18.5
    INDY +1.5
    SD +3
    MISS ST. +4

    Essay:

    SEATTLE +3

    This is such a fucking trap and I am walking right into it. I am, in contravention of most everything I should have learned, unwilling to modify my assumptions about these teams from before the season. The held that a) Seattle was one of the five best teams in the NFL and b) Tennessee was a probable 9-7 playoff paper tiger from a shitty division who gets destroyed in the Wild-Card Round by Denver or someone. This line, obviously, implies these teams are neutral field equals. And even though everything we’ve seen on field would suggest that is, if anything, charitable to the Seahawks, I just can’t buy it. I feel like Tennessee is not particularly well-suited to take full advantage of Seattle’s o-line which is, at least in theory, the only glaring problem with the team. I steadfastly refuse to believe in the Derick Morgan Project. And when Tennessee has the ball Corey Davis isn’t playing, which means Tennessee will be mismatched on the outside. And Murray probably isn’t playing, so Mariotta loses his safety valve. I dunno. I like Seattle to win outright for no reason supported by any football I have actually seen played this year. Seems smart.

  • Dave Borcas

    Picks.
    Rams -2 (push)
    scum -10
    Notre Dame -3.5
    Raiders -3
    Mississippi St +4 (all play)
    Dolphins -6 (essay)
    The Jets are in the race for the top draft pick in 2017. The Jets have been porous on defense and inconstant on offense. The Dolphins D did not look so good vs the chargers. They are much better, especially on the DL than they played. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball, which should open up the passing game for Jay Cutler who is starting to get comfortable in his new surroundings. The Jets are horrible and only a lackluster performance by the Dolphins could keep this under 10 points.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    AP Miss State +4.5
    NFL Arizona +3
    UCF +3.5
    OSU -40
    Mich State +3.5
    ****essay**** Toledo +13.5

    • actovegin1armstrong

      ****essay****
      This will not be a fun game to watch and with all of the time spent after scores, the Miami-Toledo Track Meet will be at least 6 hours long.
      Toledo’s defense looked bad, they gave up 1,548 yards in a WIN over Tulsa.
      Miami’s defense was not much better, surrendering 350 yards to Bethune Cookman. I do not know who this guy Bethune Cookman is, or what team he plays for, but he must have cramped up or something, or he would have beaten Miami.
      Toledo should have no problem moving the ball, the combination of throws from Logan Woodside to Cody Thompson should account for about 350 yards alone.
      If Toledo’s offensive line can give Woodside 2.5-ish seconds Toledo will have no problem covering the 13.5+.

  • LittleBallofHate

    One biscuit picks — USF (-19.5, won); Utah (-3.5; RichRod Hot Seat grows hotter); Ravens (-3.5: Harbs could pass it only twice and would still cover); Skins (+3; Cousins Prime Time Pay Me opportunity).
    All Play — Mississippi State (+4). Fitzgerald is a dark horse Heisman candidate and needs a strong game to bolster his resume.
    Browns No Biscuit Pick — HOLY SHIT, THEY’RE A ROAD FAVORITE!!!! Of course it would be so Brownsy if they ended up winning by one point. Is the over/under on interceptions by both teams in this game 7? Indy by a field goal.
    Essay — Kentucky (+2) vs. Florida. The Wildcats have not won since Reagan was president and the great John Clay began chronicling football for the Lexington Herald-Leader (http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/john-clay/article174209896.html). Talent wise, this is UK’s best chance to beat the Gators since 2007. The only difference then is UF had some guy named Tebow at quarterback. The Gators were lucky to escape last week with a win and it made it ever so sweeter that it came on a last-second bomb against a Butch Jones team. The game is in Lexington, the Cats can wear down Florida with its running game and if UK is ever going to turn the corner and put together a truly special session, it eventually needs to defeat the Gators. I just happen to think it happens on Saturday night.

  • Dave Kolonich

    Fresh off a 5-1 week (LSU?????), yet I’m filled with more doubt than ever. I’m pretty sure I dislike all of these picks:

    AP – UGA (-4.5)
    Cal (+17)
    Ravens (-3.5)
    Bills (+3)
    Titans (-2.5)

    ESSAY – Falcons (-3)

    This team is a few dumb plays away from being the defending champs.

    Is it just me or has there been an inordinate amount of service dogs – like everywhere? These dogs used to be a novelty – I can remember losing my crap as a kid (and young adult) whenever I saw a seeing eye dog. “Why CAN’T I pet that dog??” Then the whole Paris Hilton-purse dog thing happened. Now, it seems like anyone with a mild case of anxiety comes armed with a Yellow Lab. Personally, I would love to strap a harness to our Weiner-man but a walk with him can easily lead to a torn rotator cuff for me. Plus, he would want to start some stuff with the dogs who are actually trained. He’s an awesome dog but he’s kind of a dick.

    • I like the Cal pick, so that means you should probably change it.

      • Dave Kolonich

        I already regret it.

  • Some monsters are born unto this earth, others are created. A thirty-something, 300-pounder who calls me a fucking bitch for waiting out some bad pitches in the championship game of a recreational softball league is neither. He is a pathetic misogynist. No place is sacred, no space in the world is safe. It’s the saddest fucking thing.

    Cheddar folks, thanks for being the best.

    Jim versus Jeff. Quarterback turned coach versus quarterback turned coach. 2001 was the last time both of these righteous dudes were on the roster of an NFL team. One has coached in the NFL, one has not. Jim has fallen from grace, while Jeff Brohm’s stock is only rising. This is Jeff’s debut season in the Big 10 and he’s making it a memorable one. Jim doesn’t scare him. Hell, Jim doesn’t scare anyone. He has evolved into a meme of himself. Brohm was once awarded “Mr. Football” in Kentucky and has been on the Browns roster as a backup QB. One of those things is of interest. The game is in West Lafayette and I’m befuddled that the Boilermakers are getting ten points. Does not compute. Harbaugh will shoot himself in the foot. Both teams get next weekend off and Purdue is less likely to be looking ahead to it. The Wolverines must be desperate to get a breather from Jimmy. The desperation of bribing players with international trips wreaks. Something is rotten in the state of Michigan, and it falls apart when it travels to Purdue on Saturday.
    Purdue +10 vs. Michigan

    AP: Miss. St. +4.5 @ Georgia

    Other picks to follow…

    • Appalachian State +4.5 vs. Wake Forest: Wake Forest is good an ACC team.
      Toledo +13.5 vs. Miami Florida: Toledo is a fine team, you guys!
      Vanderbilt +18.5 vs. Bama: Vanderbilt’s defense, doe.
      Steelers +7 vs. Bears: I mean, what?

    • actovegin1armstrong

      “You want I should rough him up boss?”

  • Capitalgg

    [All-play] Georgia -4.5 v. Mississippi St.: Home field + let down game for MSU after LSU last week.
    1. Alabama -18.5 @ Vanderbilt: Vandy’s getting crock-potted. Would have been an essay, but 19 on the road is a lot.
    2. Louisville -44 v. Kent St.: Poor Kent gets the Lamar Miller bounce-back game.
    3. Redskins +3 v. Raiders: I expect a high score in this one.
    4. Jaguars +3.5 v. Ravens: Jags 4th trip to London having won last 2 outright. Ravens 1st trip. Expecting a low-scoring slog of a game.

    So I pretty much hate this week’s slate of games. Too many road favorites. I ended up targeting a ton of games because I really didn’t like any.

    Finally settled on a game I don’t really want to even play, but I think there’s a slight opportunity here: Lions +3 v. Falcons

    Falcons coming off the emotion of the home christening of their new home stadium and in a let down road spot. Lions have enough talent on O and D to make this an interesting game. Add in the home dome, and I’ll ride with the 2-0 Lions.

    • Seriously considered essaying Vandy, best of luck.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Georgia -4.5 all play
    2. Tulane -2.5 they’ve already faced the kings of the triple option in Navy and lost by only 2 while holding Navy to under 200 yds rushing (<4 ypc). Just missed my
    3. Stanford -7.5
    4. Chargers +3
    5. Ravens -3.5
    6. Toledo +13.5 (essay): Great situational play here for Toledo. They play an uptempo offense vs a Miami defense that hasn't played in 21 days and even then the starters didnt play the whole game in a blowout. Now they have to play in the 88 degree heat vs a team that's played 3 games already. I think Miami's D is going to struggle in the 2nd half

    • CLEVTA

      Plz cross off ravens. Too many injuries. And give me bills +3 thx

  • Dave Borcas

    Rams minus the 2 tonight please

  • LittleBallofHate

    Let’s do the first biscuit this week on South Florida -19.5.

  • cwonder23

    Rams -2 for one cheddar point please. This is going to be an AWFUL game tonight. Great product this year, NFL.

    • cwonder23

      Adding Temple +19.5

  • Heading up for a huge bros golf weekend in Gaylord Michigan tonight, so I’m getting these picks in early. Gonna go college heavy this week because I see some value out there, and I’m doubling up the all play to make it my essay for the week as well. Happy pickin’!

    PURDUE +10. I smell an upset brewing here, and I think as we roll through the season, don’t be surprised to see Purdue and Minnesota rise near the top of the pack in the Big 10 west. Still think it comes down to Wisconsin and Minnesota to see who plays for the BIG 10 title, but I’m long on Purdue, and short on Iowa. Didn’t even mention Michigan in this post, because I think they’re due for a let down. They aren’t the team from last year.

    PENN STATE. -12.5. Powerhouse until proven otherwise. Saquon Barkley is a man among boys.

    DUKE -2.5. UNC can’t stop anyone. Duke doesn’t seem to want to be stopped. High scoring game, but this one tips in favor of the Blue Devils. *** @603brown:disqus there’s no Duke button in the selection sheet above.

    TOLEDO +13.5. I REALLY wanted to take Vanderbilt as my last college play, but I just don’t have the balls. Miami hasn’t played in three weeks and even that was against Bethune Cookman. Probably takes them a bit to get back in the swing of things, and in that time, Toledo scores enough points to cover.

    RAVENS -3.5. Saw what they did to us last week. Imagine they’ll get to Bortles pretty early here too. This is the team to beat in the AFC north in my opinion.

    $$$ MISS ST +4.5. $$$
    Knew this spread would drop in Georgia’s favor, so I got my bet in early when it was at 6 for a hot second earlier in the week. Also made a hefty ML play as well because MISS ST looks pretty real. Georgia has played no one yet (that includes my Irish), and I think they’re overhyped. I expect MSU stack the box, limiting Chubb’s opportunities, and to force Jake Fromm to beat them with his arm. Fromm is passing just 59% thus far, which isn’t going to get it done in conference play against teams who can score touchdowns and control the time of possession. Nick Fitzgerald on the other side is slightly better statistically, but is a legit dual-threat QB. And, to make sure I’m not falling into a black hole of confirmation bias, here’s a stat: Dan Mullen’s team was held to single digits in six of eight tries against Kirby Smart defenses at Alabama. The other two times, they scored 10 and 20, and the 20 came with Dak at the helm. That said, this doesn’t seem like cause for concern to me, because Kirby Smart just doesn’t have the same players he had while at Bama. His defense certainly looks improved from last year, but I don’t see them locking down this offense, or keeping pace against what looks like a really strong defensive team thus far. LSU isn’t good, but these Bulldogs made them look a hell of a lot worse than everyone expected last week. Mississippi State wins by 10.

    • Peter Wendler

      there is, but there are up with the NFL teams

  • Jaxbch Josh

    PSU -12.5 see a blowout
    JAGS +3.5 game falls on a fg
    FALCONS -3 lions short week and overrated
    COWBOYS -3 dallas rebounds. Carson old
    GA -4.5 miss st sucks bw hedges
    NcState +13 (essay)

    High noon game, FSU students will be getting over ther hangovers and miss kickoff.
    Fsu has a brand new QB, talented as blackman is, he is still a Frosh
    FSU hasnt played in 20 days.
    Last year this game was back and forth and fsu pulled it out with a much more talented and veteran squad
    Nc state has good rush defense, making Frosh beat them with pass.
    GIMME THE WOLFPACK AND THE PTS!!

    WHICH WAY TO VEGAS, MORTGAGE THE HOUSE AND GRAB THE PTS

  • Chris Magee

    Hey Mike my point total didn’t update again. I’m filling out the form. I don’t know what is wrong.

    I got 5 points last week after hitting the essay I believe I’m at 12.5

    • cwonder23

      DM him on twitter. @603brown

    • all set and again i apologize, same formula error. have pasted correct formula all the way to super bowl so you should be good. keep up the good picking.

      • Chris Magee

        Thank you!

  • pheasantpants

    Rams -2 @ 49ers for one tasty Cheddar Bay Biscuit (which I have been craving for weeks, thank’s to this contest)

    • pheasantpants

      Oklahoma -27 at Baylor for the big road cover. Could probably change that 2 to a 4 and I’d still pick the Sooners.

      • pheasantpants

        Cal +17 vs. USC
        Mississippi State +4.5 at UGA
        MTSU -7 vs. BGSU

        Essay TBA

        • pheasantpants

          Close things out with Colorado and the 10.5.

      • pheasantpants

        ESSAY Oklahoma -27

        This game gets the upgrade because it’s difficult for me to feel more confident about any other game. Baker Mayfield has been a surgeon this year, as Buckeye fans saw, while Baylor is reflecting the state of the program left by erstwhile Hamilton TiCats assistant Art Briles. Just at the QB position alone, Mayfield has 1046 yards passing while Baylor signal caller Anu Solomon has had 399. Baylor has a scoring delta of -24 after playing Liberty, UTSA, and Duke. 27 is a lot of points to lay, on the road, for an essay, but I just don’t see Baylor doing anything to slow the Sooner attack. Should be a very easy cover for the Sooners, barring a fluky late TD by the Bears.

  • Peter Wendler

    (Essay) Utah -3.5 @ Arizona. Utah is on a roll, and that’s not surprising for a Kyle Whittingham-coached squad. The guy simply knows how to win. Speaking of knowing how to win, 26-year old Sunia Tauteoli is older than half the players in the NFL, but keeps on producing at middle LB for the Utes. A trip to Tucson really poses no problem for a veteran Utah squad, as the Wildcats are in full rebuild mode. Well-coached, experienced, and talented, Whittingham’s team will play a clean four quarters and I see a classic Rich Rod implosion late in the game. Utes pull away in the second half 38-24.

    2.) Penn St. -12.5 @ Iowa (hate to do it)
    3.) Michigan -10 @ Purdue
    4.) Oregon -15.5 @ Arizona St. (this one will be ugly)
    5.) Chiefs -3 @ San Die… err LA Chargers
    AP) Georgia -4.5 vs Mississippi St.

  • Looks like MissySt/UGA is the all-play.
    Interesting result and I like it!
    Will update header and pick up late lines later today.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Already Wednesday night and I don’t have my votes in. I am very uncomfortable with this and the uncertainty of the all play. If I don’t get a Thursday vote in I’ll just bust so I’ll have to take a chance that I may have to change a vote based on the outcome of the poll.

    Week 4
    MAC Essay #4

    This MAC essay is actually an anti essay because I am taking Louisville over Kent. I tried my luck with Kent last week based on a hunch from hearing them mentioned on the radio during my work commute. Turned out I should have been paying more attention to the Kent Football news and less on the university PR department news. This week it came out that a Kent football player who died earlier in the summer was the victim of hyperthermia secondary to football conditioning. The conditioning coach was fired over the incident. It got me thinking that maybe this isn’t the best school to get behind, but then I thought I should check out other programs before I condemn one school. The history of football deaths over the centuries seemed like fun research. I was reading on wikipedia about early football deaths and many of them were due to tetanus from wounds received during the game. I then read that the number of deaths from direct injuries went down after creating the rule that you could not kick the ball of of the goal keepers hands. It then occurred to me that these were association football and not american football deaths. When I switched to the correct death list it seems that most american football players who die while under contract are either shot or drown or do something stupid. So the best way to prevent most football deaths is to make sure the athletes know how to swim, advocate for gun control laws and only let females play football. These measures may not be implemented in my life time so for now I’ll just have to continue encouraging players to get vaccinated.

    Louisville -44 (also Kent is not very good and Louisville will have learned some lessons last week. It doesn’t seem like this will be a time for them to show mercy)

    Temple +19.5 vs South Florida (I know it’s not MAC but I hate having everything on Saturday)
    Akron +15 vs Troy
    Toledo +13.5 vs Miami Fl
    Florida Atlantic +3 vs Buffalo
    All play ????

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      Phooey on the all play. I like when somebody else picks the NFL game for me. Drop Florida Atlantic and give me Cardinals +3. It’s not like I’ll be able to watch the FAU game while the all play is on tv.
      Georgia all play.

  • Art Briles Hirer

    First! Is that a thing here?

    I’ll pick games for now pending the all-play selections.

    MSU +3.5 over ND
    Purdue +10 over Michigan
    Florida -2 over Kentucky
    Raiders -3 over Skins
    Chiefs -3 over Chargers
    Falcons -3 over Lions

    • Art Briles Hirer

      Thought about doing something else, but it would just feel wrong to essay another game during MSU/ND week.

      This year’s game will probably matter more than last year. Oh 2016. Let’s go back to September 17, 2016. I was at a pizza parlor with an old MSU classmate, who was working for the Hillary Clinton campaign. He was a little late for the game because he was stuck in a late meeting, surely discussing the string of Dangerous Donald ads that would wrap up the election victory. MSU won 36-28. We felt pretty good that night.

      Looking back, there were ominous signs. We missed the first 5 minutes of game time simply because the staff was completely unprepared to tune a TV to NBC. I expressed concern to my friend that Hillary’s ads featured no discussion of her actual policy goals (he agreed, but figured it’d work out anyway). MSU gave up 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to make things uncomfortably close. But we weren’t too concerned that night.

      Of course, Hillary is not President, and MSU and ND went a combined 7-17 in 2016. For both MSU and the DNC, 2017 has been about remembering your identity. And while the DNC has had mixed results in that department, MSU is once again playing with their signature focus and intensity. MSU is going to feed off their energized prime time crowd, and Brian Lewerke will be just a little bit better than Brandon Wimbush.

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