Playoff wk 2, Division round.

Week two lines of the Cheddar Playoffs are up and shown below.  As before, submit picks for ALL FOUR games to Frowns and me ONE HOUR before FIRST KICKOFF.  (Have your picks emailed no later than 3:35 PM, Eastern time on Saturday.)

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  • trashy
    Steelers
    Packers
    Essay Falcons
    Patriots

    Well, pretty much 86ed for this year’s playoffs after for some unknown reason putting my bonus points on a Michigan state QB in the pros last week. C’est la vie.

    This week, has to be the falcons. Seahawks have been struggling to stop vertical attacks since ET3 went down. And Julio already burnt the Hawks for 100+ and a TD this year.

    Throw in that inconsistent offense and that weak offensive line and it will be difficult for Seattle to pull this one out. Certainly the falcons defense is not good outside of a surgent Vic Beasley but the Seahawks haven’t been able to put any consistency together all year. Last week was the first time in a while Seattle looked OK on offense but that was against an atrocious Detroit defense that was also terrible on offense thanks to the Stafford injury.

    Anyway, for this year’s cheddar I am making like a browns fan and looking forward to next year.

    • Petefranklin

      Nice reverse hoodoo with the last line.

  • thatsfine
    Seahawks +5
    Texans +15
    Chiefs -1.5 – Essay
    Packers +4.5

    This squad has the usual no frills offense, now with an emerging TE threat in Travis Kelce and an explosive big play threat in Tyreek hill. Plus an underrated defense, #7 in points allowed this season. Spencer Ware and Justin Houston had a week off to heal injuries. Alex Smith and Andy Reid are ultimate game managers doing just enough so it seems right that they win this one only to lose next week. Big Ben is battling an injury, I don’t think he’ll torch the Chiefs like he did in Week 4. Pittsburgh is getting a lot of credit for stomping the Dolphins and Matt Moore last week, they won their last 8, but the schedule was kind of weak this included 2 over the Browns, one over the Bengals and Bills, plus the underachieving Colts and Ravens… the most impressive win was over the Giants by 10. Over their last 8 the Chiefs beat @Falcons, vs. Raiders (with Carr), and 2 over the Broncos. Though they lost games during this stretch to the Bucs and Titans (both 19-17) I’m more impressed by KC’s run. The only thing that makes me cringe with this pick is the potential for hanging on for a cover but watching Andy Reid coach with a one-score lead. That shit is going to be excruciating.

  • TSB
    Seahawks +5
    Pats -15 Essay
    Chiefs -1.5
    Packers + 4.5

    Short and sweet this week as I’m writing this essay from my hotel room in Vegas. Hoping you guys write some good essays so I can make some winning picks this weekend…

    This NFL season has been strange. There seems to be an abundance of not very good teams, several of which made the playoffs. Last week most of the pretenders were eliminated, except of course, for the Houston Texans. I’ve gone back and forth on most of these games, but there was only one game this week where I was only ever going to pick one side. I don’t feel the need to give a lot of analysis on this game, everyone knows what’s going on here. This is Tom Brady against Brock Osweiler – there’s my analysis. It’s not a question of who wins, just whether or not the Pats can cover. I think they do, easily.

  • hawk
    Seahawks +5
    Pats -15
    Packers +4.5
    $$$Steelers +1.5

    I am essaying the Steelers +1.5 this week for two reasons, Big Ben and Bell. These teams got together and week 4 and it was all Pittsburgh where they won by 29 points. Not going to happen this time around, this game will be much much more competitive and closer. They are expecting inclement weather for this one in KC with ice and sleet. I believe they moved this one back to a night game to help alleviate some concerns. However, the home field advantage typically enjoyed by the Chiefs at Arrowhead might be a little different for this one. I saw something on twitter today that the cheapest tickets were going for $26, unheard of for a divisional round game. A couple of things to note that I found out is Andy Reid is 3-0 in divisional round games after having the prior week off. Of course saban was 5-0 in national title games before Monday night too, we all know how that turned out. The chiefs also do not get blown out at Arrowhead and they won’t this weekend either. Bringing it back full circle this will come down to who makes the most plays and can make minimal mistakes. I give Big Ben the advantage is limiting mistakes over Alex Smith. Big Ben is a big game QB and finds ways to win, he is a champion. Hell, he lost only 1 game his last year at Miami (OH) losing to none other than the Iowa Hawkeyes but that’s not surprising. As far as big plays go I give the nod to Bell and Antonio Brown, in my mind a little more dangerous than Spencer Ware and Travis Kelce. Steelers 31 Chiefs 27

  • pate
    Seahags +5
    Dallas-4.5
    Pats -15
    ***Chiefs-1.5

    Pittsburg blew up Kansas City earlier this season. The Steelers were coming off a beatdown the week before, it was the worst beating by a Mike Tomlin team since he came to Pittsburg, 34-3. They got beat in every facet of that ballgame. He read the riot act that week to the team and they went to Kansas City on a Sunday night and the Steelers jumped out early. There was a turnover and a big punt return and before you new it the score was 22-0. It’s going to be a different story here. Kansas City actually has the perfect offense to go with a Steelers defense. The Chiefs are not flashy, they are that dink and dunk offense with Alex Smith and Andy Reed with his conservative style. They get the ball out of the hands of the quarterback quickly and I think they will keep the Steelers linebackers at bay. Big Ben is not the same quarterback on the road this year. Touchdown to interception ratio is way worse on the road. Then you look at Andy Reed’s record when coming out of a bye it’s 19-2 in his career, pretty incredible.

  • cwonder
    Texans +15
    Seahawks +5
    Packers +4.5
    Essay: Steelers +1.5

    Sounds like tough weather in KC with the game moving later. With that, I’ll take the best RB in the league and a defense that has been playing well lately. Rotty is a playoff tested veteran QB with a lot of talent around him. His ankle or foot shouldn’t be an issue as he has shown some of the most “guts” in the league since he entered. He had his team playing well and seems to be clicking with his OC, Todd Haley. KC has a good team but has also had to rely on some luck and some ugly wins. I think that luck runs out and the NFL gets what it wants next week with Pitt/NE in the AFC Championship. Pittsburgh 27 – KC 20.

  • jmac
    One week at a time for the ‘Macdaddios. I’m just thrilled to be making Cheddar picks this time of year. I’d also like to thank Clemson for saving my season.

    Falcons -5 No 12th Man for Seattle. Atlanta can score points so this might turn into a Big 12 game.
    Texans +15 That’s too many points to pass up. The Pats have a history of playoff letdowns. In this case it might just end up a little closer than two TDs.
    Chiefs -1.5 (Essay)
    Cowboys -4.5 Going out on a limb here. Usually the Cowboys line is driven up for a couple of extra points due to all the action on America’s Team. I’d say a 1.5 or 2.5 point spread would be in order. However, let’s not over think things here.

    I was happy to see the Steelers win last week, for the sole reason that I picked them. Despite the post game reports to the contrary, Big Ben won’t be 100%, in the game or at the frat parties, after showing up in a walking boot after the win. The Chiefs are a tough team to play on the road. Plus Miami moved the ball well after settling down, losing by a wide margin mainly due to turnovers. The game was a lot closer than the scoreline indicated. This isn’t really a pick for the Chiefs as it is against the Steelers. 1.5 is a close line which is driven by the networks wanting to have a feature team make a deep playoff run and the legions of Steeler fans driving the line down.

  • LucyLaw
    1. Pats -15
    2. Atlanta -5
    3. Pitt +1.5
    4. Essay Packers +4.5

    Had a tough time deciding which team I was going to essay this week and decided to go with the hottest team in the league, the GB Packers. As a gambler I couldn’t turn my head away from Rodgers, who is currently playing out of his mind, getting points in a dome against a rookie quarterback. I truly think the Packers can win this game so Ill take the points and run with it. Everyone seems concerned about the Nelson injury, but Rodgers played just fine without him in the second half last week against one of the better defensive units in the league. I truly think Cobb is the most important WR to Rodgers when it comes to chemistry and trust. I think experience in the playoffs is huge and that being said, hopefully the pressure of Dak and Zeke’s first playoff game will slow them down enough for the Packers to take advantage early. Just look at Hurts vs Watson on Monday night. QB is where its at in the NFL and Brady/Ryan (MVP season), Big Ben and Rodgers > Brock/Wilson/ Smith/Dak and that is why i picked the way I did this week. Looking forward to Aaron ruining all the bandwagon Dallas fans season.

  • grr
    Atlanta (-5) over Seattle – This will become known years from now as the Tevin Coleman game. It’s like all it took for the Atlanta offense to bring it all together was an All Pro Center.

    Houston (+15) over New England – Hardest game of the week and I think that Brock does just enough to stay inside the number.

    Green Bay (+4.5) over Dallas – Can we get an O/U on the number of sideline shots of Tony Romo?

    Essay Pick

    Strange things happen at night at Arrowhead. Really strange things happen at Arrowhead when the NFL pushes a game time back 7 hours due to a pending ice storm. As I get ready for the Kansas City and Atlanta Super Bowl we all predicted back in August I am amazed at the amount of people already preparing for Pittsburgh headed to New England. Screw the Steelers. Screw them in their stupid yinzer fat faces. He may be from Ohio but Big Ben has just the right amount of face fat to be the proper rep for Western Pennsylvania. I would do anything for an Alex Smith in Cleveland…or an Andy Reid.

    Chiefs (-1.5) over Steelers

  • dwhalen
    Divisional Round is really interesting to me because of the following:

    1. All four teams who played last week won as home favorites. They are all road dogs just a week later.
    2. All four of this week’s games are rematches from the regular season, in which the home teams at the time won 3 of 4. The only rematch on the same field is Houston @ New England.

    Seattle beat Atlanta by two at home, but Falcons covered in week 6.
    New England boat raced Houston 27-0 with no Tom Brady in week 3.
    Pitt destroyed KC 43-14 in week 4.
    And Dallas beat Green Bay by two touchdowns at Lambeau in week 6.

    Really trying to be strategic about the team I lay my essay on because it’s not just about who I think will cover, but it’s about who I think other members are picking. I need to make up more ground. Especially on that bnasty character.

    FALCONS -5. Everyone has to be on Seattle here. If we remember at the midway point when they traveled to New England and handled the Pats, I think that’s gotta be resonating with people still that this team can win on the road. And they’re playoff tested. And they barely had to get out of bed to take care of Detroit at home last week. Public money is on Atlanta, but I think there was some early sharp action on the Falcons as well. I wish this spread were smaller, but I’m banking on the Falcons offense being too much for even Seattle’s Defense. Plus, it’s time for Matt Ryan to prove that he can be in the conversation with the best in the league. Until he wins in the playoffs, he can’t be. Hoping this game is a touchdown apart.

    PATRIOTS -15. So many points. But until I’m blue in the face I’ll bet against Brock Osweiler. More importantly, I’ll bet with the greatest coach and QB ever to suit up in this league.

    PACKERS +4.5. Surprised this one came out above 3 points. Rodgers hasn’t been human for the past eight weeks, and Dak (as much as I love to pat myself on that back for finding him) and Zeke are bad asses, but still rookies. My gut says Dallas squeaks by. But barely.

    $$$ CHIEFS $$$ -1.5. This was a murderous beat down in week four. The Steelers were up 36-0 at one point, standing over the body kinda like this and there should have been someone there to call the fight. Things have changed since then. The Chiefs have won 10 of 12, and their two losses came by identical 19-17 scores to the Bucs and Titans-both teams who played very well down the stretch. Oh, and in week four, no one had any idea who Tyreek Hill was, and that includes Andy Reid. It wasn’t until about week 8 that he started to unleash Hill in ways that make us nostalgic about Dante Hall. But Hill, for all of his personal issues-none of which I’m forgiving-is one of the most exciting football players on the planet since October. He’s sure as hell the fastest.

    The Chiefs continually underachieve in big moments, but not at the fault of their quarterback, whom people have mis-identified as a “game manager” for most of his career. I’ll have ya’ll know, that Alex Smith is far more than that. And his performance in the playoffs has been more than enough to keep his teams in the hunt. 5 career games, 11/1 TD/INT ratio. He accounts for over 300 yards per game in those performances. People forget about his mobility and his ability to create when things break down-primarily because he gets rid of the ball quickly in the west coast system. It’s designed to get the ball to play-makers in space, at full speed with low risk. Doesn’t mean you should label one as a game manager. Instead, if executed well and consistently, the west coast system is meant to be more like a boxer landing 100 jabs than one big haymaker. And it limits turnovers.

    Maclin-healthy. Ware-healthy. Kelce-healthy. Hill-healthy. Dee Ford and Juston Houston coming off the edge. Eric Berry and Marcus Peters patrolling the defensive backfield. I like this squad. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Big Ben get banged up enough to have to leave the game for a few plays or more.

    And let’s remember the most important thing: Andy Reid is at home coming off a bye. I’ll take my chances that he’s got his shit together.

  • bnasty
    Green Bay +4.5
    Rodgers is toooooo good lately and this game has all the looks of a complete shootout.

    New England -15
    Assweiler got lucky last week facing a rookie, this week not so much. Brady has a field day and Brock struggles on the road just like he did all year long.

    Kansas City -1.5
    This game is a tough one. Having lost by 30 points earlier this year makes me think the steelers could again easily win this game. That being said Kansas City is a sleeper in this entire AFC playoff picture. Offense looks a lot better with tyreek Hill being involved and Kelce having a great year. Defense looks on point and Andy Reid is 16-2 coming off of a bye week. So I’m going with my gut and taking KC at home.

    Seattle +5 ***Essay***

    For some reason after losing in the regular season, because of a no call pass interference, this makes the Falcons 5 points better? I don’t think so. Seattle is a playoff team and they have showed in the last 3 or 4 seasons. Another thing that is apparent is, Matt Ryan always seems to “crap his jocks” when it comes to the playoffs. Atlantas offense has been better of late but, Seattle looked more balanced last week than they have all season long. Also, have we not seen over the past years that defense clearly wins championships? Well Atlanta has the 26th ranked defense in the NFL, which means they basically stop teams about as well as a sieve stops water. Where as the Seattle Defense is ranked 5th in the league and although they don’t have Earl Thomas, they still look more than competent. With all that being said, With the year Matt Ryan has had, I like Russell Wilson more than most QB’s in the NFL. Give me Russ and the Seattle D, getting the 5.