Wk 15, Cowboys -3 at Giants (SNF).

No compulsory college play this week.
In keeping with a policy change we made last year, there is no requirement to play the Army-Navy game.

Late lines:  Broncos/Titans, Skins/Eagles.

Download (PDF, Unknown)

  • pheasantpants

    Pats -7 Essay

    Ravens have played some good football of late but i see at the top of the page that New England already has nine covers this season. This despite the fact that Brady missed four games and that they seem to be eternally beset with injuries of some kind of another. I think that the Pats will find a way to win this thing by more than seven, even in the absence of Gronk. Some random dude will go off and maybe Legarette Blount will have 150 yards (keep in mind that this guy off the scrap heap now has 957 yds and 13 TDs. I don’t think the Lions have 13 rushing TDs all season).

    One day we will figure out where Boston got the monkey’s paw that is granting them the past decade of sports success. However, the how’s and why’s are not important for Cheddar Bay essay points.

    In a battle of coaches and franchises I hate, NE 24, BAL 10.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    6. Ravens to round out the week

  • Matt Lawrence


  • mmmmsnouts


    I’ll replace the pick with Seahawks -3, change my essay to the Ravens, and write another essay.

    • mmmmsnouts

      NEW ESSAY: Ravens +7 vs. Patriots

  • Matt Borcas

    Browns +5.5 over Bengals
    Cowboys -3 over Giants
    Steelers -2 over Bills
    Cards +1 over Dolphins
    Seahawks -3 over Packers


    3. Seattle -3
    4. Miami -1
    5. Bears +7.5 (essay): lions play most games close and no Riddick today. Barkley has been competent so far and Howard will run all over that D. Bears are a scrappy bunch

    • CLEVTA

      6. Texans +6

    • That’s an essay??? Haha

    • yeah,, this isnt going to get it done. plus it’s late, ie not a hour pre kickoff.

      give us a good seahawks take!

      • CLEVTA

        Jesus really? I’ve seen some of the essays posted around here. Maybe I’ll copy and paste a game preview off a newspaper section instead. Whatever. Seattle -3: Russell Wilson in the snow and he’s used to it being as he played in Wisconsin. That offense is built for snow and bad weather. I expect Rawls to run all over that GB run D and he was impressive last week rushing for over 100 yds prior to a concussion, No Earl Thomas shouldn’t be a big deal as GB doesn’t have a deep threat down the middle of the field to threaten that Seattle D.

  • Nick

    Texans +6 vs Colts
    Browns +5.5 vs Bengals
    Lions -7.5 vs Bears
    Cowboys -3 vs Giants
    Skins -2 vs Eagles
    Jets +2.5 vs 49ers***Essay
    There is nothing for me left to do in this football season but root for the Browns draft picks to get better. I’m a hopeless homer with no interest in other football teams. So, what would really help the Browns is for the 49ers to win another game because I don’t think the Browns are going to go 0-16. The problem is Chip Kelly is a nihilist and the 49ers are going to lose the rest of the way. They go low, I get high. So I’m going to pick the Jets to bounce back from their horrific game last week, and I predict Buster Skrine will get 2 interceptions today. I hope I’m wrong and the 49ers win.

  • John

    picks picks picks (from Vegas)
    1. Bengals
    2. Cards
    3. Pats
    4. Steelers
    5. Cowboys
    6. Lions

    • John

      essay Lions – so the Lions have a revenge game in their sights…which pretty much costs them the division…

      and…as a Bears fan…I have to think with my head, and not my heart here.

      bonus question: can anyone tell me who the Bears QB is next year?
      same. I can’t either.
      and the Bears don’t have a starting TE, a starting QB, and two starting WRs.

      we are a mess.
      Lions win big.
      keeping a playoff push alive.

  • TS_Butler

    Vikes -3
    Niners -2.5
    Cardinals +1
    Skins -2
    Giants +3

    ESSAY: Tough slate this week. It’s hard not ending up with six favorites. At least there’s one game we can all feel good about. Goff took over the starting job three weeks ago and has gone 0-3 ATS since then. The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the league, and the Rams defense looks as though they’ve thrown in the towel on the year. Why go out and bust your ass every play when you need to essentially hold the team to less than a TD to win the game. Even if the Falcons don’t show up they should still be able to cover the six points from the team bus. Falcons -6

  • Bills +2. Bills desperately need a win. Tyrod Taylor and Rex maybe even more so.

    Titans -1.5.

    Texans +6. Texans D is a lot better than the Jets. And this division is up for grabs.

    Bucs -2.5. This team is good. And Jameis is too. I didn’t want him to be at first, but he’s got me believing.

    $$$ Cowboys -3. $$$
    There’s no team I’d rather put my money on, even if it isn’t fruitful. These guys have been the most fun team to watch for 12 weeks, and they’ve won games in all kinds of ways-blowouts, tight defensive battles, come from behind, at home and on the road. The defense doesn’t get enough credit for keeping teams in check-because you can’t just look at yards allowed per game-advanced stats will tell you that isn’t correlated with wins and losses. In the red zone they get tough, and they’re getting healthier every week. The rookies are bad asses in every sense of the word, and had you never watched a football game before and turned on a miscellaneous 2016 Cowboys contest, you’d think they were seasoned vets. And as always, when your O-line is from another universe, you’re gonna be really hard to stop. And no JPP for the Giants means even less of a pass rush for them than usual. Dak and Zeke 😍😍😍 4ever.

  • thatsfine

    Chiefs -3.5 W
    Army +6 W
    Cowboys -3
    Bears +7.5 essay
    Eagles +2
    Ravens +7

    • thatsfine

      I’m hanging my essay hopes on Matt Barkley and a pretty banged up Chicago offense. Basically, my position on the Bears is any time Jay Cutler is out with an injury it is a net gain for the team. Matt Barkley, Brian Hoyer, Josh McCown, Caleb Jamie…. Cutler is just an odd dude, and the first few weeks when he’s out it feels like rally time. The Lions play to the level of their competition. Last week was the first time they’ve won by more than 7 this year. Plus, no running game. Theo Riddick is their top rusher with 357 on the year, he might be out. They resigned Joique Bell. So, it’s all on Stafford like it has been all year. He’s been money but at some point he’s gonna have an average game. Plus, Bears rookie RB Jordan Howard. Not much talk about this guy because of Ezekiel Elliot, but he’s got 883 yards and looks good on a bad team. I think Chicago keeps it close and the Lions pull out another late victory.

  • Hawkaholic

    Broncos +1
    Saints +2.5
    Cards +1
    Pats -7
    AP: Giants +3

    Essay: Panthers -1

    I don’t have a lot of great reasons for choosing this game. Cam and Carolina were embarrassed last week, tie-gate happened etc and I just have a feeling that Cam is still trying to prove he is an elite QB and will have a great day today. The Chargers are traveling east for an early kick so i am hoping that throws off their circadian rhythm and Rivers struggles. One stat i found interesting was that Rivers has only out gained the opposing QB in 4 of 12 games this year and I think it happens again today. I have to believe Carolina’s defense didn’t coast in practice this week so they should be ready to go. If Cam shows up with a tie I give Carolina the edge by 3.

  • pheasantpants

    Lions -7.5
    Bengals -5.5

    • pheasantpants

      Theo Riddick being out changes my pick to Bears +7.5

    • pheasantpants

      Saints +2.5
      Packers +3
      AP: Cowboys -3

  • zizzer13

    Titans -1.5
    Browns +5
    Steelers -1
    Packers +3
    Falcons -5.5
    Cowboys -3

    Essaying the Packers this week… the playoffs began December 1 for Green Bay. The Packers are two games behind Detroit, meaning they need to make up one by the end of Week 16, since the two teams meet Week 17. So Green Bay can’t afford to lose any ground, and with the Lions playing the Bears, who might be as bad as the Browns, it’s as good as a bye week for Detroit. Anyway… the game’s in Green Bay, where it’ll be cold and snowy, and Pete Carroll doesn’t like the cold. I really have no other feeling on this game, other than the proverbial “backs against the wall” story and Green Bay being at home. So, Go Pack Go!

  • clayII

    Denver (+1.5)
    Miami (-1)
    TB (-2.5)
    Indy (-6)
    NYG (+3)

    NE (-7) essay to follow

  • trashycamaro

    Not Essay Broncos +1.5 over Titans I really like the Broncos getting a point and a half against a garbage AFC South team. Denver has a dominant defense that may be able to score as many points as the Titans offense. Denver also has a massive advantage on special teams (not true…Denver’s special teams are a lowly 23rd this year).

    Of course, the knock on Denver’s defense is stopping the run (#26 against the run) which is the Titans forte…I stand corrected. Tennessee (per DVOA) is #7 in offense, #7 in the passing game and #11 in the running game.

    So…apparently all I have to go on in this game is Siemian against that terrible Titans defense and the strength on strength matchup of Denver defense vs. Titans offense. If the Broncos can muster up some strength against the run, I think they win in a walk. That said, the research has definitely moved this away from essay territory for me.

    Essay Dolphins -1 over Cardinals The Dolphins defense has been good all season until they were eviscerated my Joe “not-elite” Flacco last week. Per DVOA defense, they dropped from #8 last week to #18 this week. It seems a drop of that magnitutde is not possible this late in the season…and I am saying it was an aberration. Add in the strength of the Dolphins at home (5-1) with the noted decline of the Cards (5-6, #26 in offense despite David Johnson, no Mathieu today) and the phins feel like a winner.

    Chargers +1 over Panthers

    49ers -2.5 over Jets

    Packers +3 over Seahawks Remember when Lambeau in December and January was sacrosanct? You’re not going in there with a garbage o-line against the #3 pass rush and coming out ahead, especially with no run game.

    Cowboys -3 over Giants The Giants have a good defense this season. But JPP is out. Combine that with a deep look at the d-line performance (the run defense is predicated on not giving up big plays with tackles by the LBs and DBs) it looks like the Cowboys offense is going to have its normal way with the Giants. Here is hoping the Boys can limit ODB to 2 long TDs.

    Plenty of games to like today. Not for points:
    Vikings -3 over Jags
    Steelers -2 over Bills
    Bears +7.5 over Lions
    Saints +2.5 over Bucs
    Falcons -6 over Rams

  • zarathustra


  • Matt Lawrence


    I took the Cowboys as my essay pick in week one when they played the Giants. While it did not win, it atleast got me 1.5 points. In that essay, I talked about how either Dak or Zeke would win ROY. Well, one of them will win ROY and Dak is on the discussion for MVP. The Cowboys wear teams down with a powerful offensive line and strong running game. I expect more of the same when they travel to New York. They will also be looking to avenge their only loss of the season.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: clowns: They are bad, really bad, but there is built in value at this pint and I will keep trying it. A little concerned the ATS performance of winless teams after week 10 is too well publicized, but that won’t detract average joe from laying points vs these types of squads. There really is nothing to like here other than that.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Chiefs W
    2. Army W
    3. Niners -2.5
    4. All Play cowboys -3
    5. Essay: Packers +3: will write later today
    6. Back Monday with last pick

    • Lucy Lawrence

      Pack +3
      This game stuck out to me this week so I’m rolling with my gut. I think Earl Thomas being out is a huge hit to the Seattle D. It doesn’t seem like it matters the position the defensive leader plays but if he goes down it’s a huge hit for the team ex: Luke K for Carolina. That being said the Packers need to take advantage and be able to score some points bc I know that Wilson will probably be able to put up points against the awful packers D. I look at it this way ->Rodgers getting points at home when the opposing team is facing a huge injury..I’ll take that all day!

  • 1) Steelers
    2) Cardinals
    3) Vikings
    4) Jets
    5) Cowvoys

  • HitTheHorns

    Broncos essay: Not much to say this week, I’ve lived in Florida for 10 days and been bedridden with the flu for 7. I’ve watched about 40 hours of 1980’s NWA wrestling this week, so if anyone needs details on Ric Flair and Ricky Steamboat’s classic series of matches, hit me up in the DMs. Anywho, I’m buying some emotional insurance here on the Broncos, as a Titans win today would pay off my biggest bet of the year, Titans over6. I don’t think today is the day. Broncos D is borderline historic, but they’ve been average against the run. Nice stat from Jeff Legwold: Five of the Broncos’ opponents have rushed for at least 140 yards this season, but only one of those teams — Oakland — has won the game.

    Packers – first time ever Aaron Rodgers getting this many points at home? I assume someone on here is tracking this stuff.

  • LittleBallofHate

    Not much to say — Army (+6; Navy was just too banged up especially at QB); Vikings (-3); Lions (-7.5); Steelers (-2); All play Cowboys (-3)
    Essay — Panthers (-1)
    There seem to be a lot of tricky lines this week and this might be one of them. However, the Panthers, especially Cam, are still pissed off after last week’s circus and the Chargers have to go to the east coast while there are rumors about them moving to Los Angeles while Philip Rivers is losing his damn mind over getting picked off time and time again. San Diego looked like they had finally gotten everything together at midseason but have started to swoon again which makes the Chargers Week 16 Christmas Eve trip to Cleveland even more interesting. Speaking of the Battle of Ohio ….
    Thank God I Didn’t Take this Game since the result wouldn’t shock me either way.
    Browns are now the ninth team since the merger to have a losing streak of 15 games or more (the Oilers have done it twice). Even without AJ and Gio, the Bengals should win this game but in 1975 in what would be Paul Brown’s final Bengals game against his old team, an 0-9 Browns squad beat the 8-1 Bengals at Municipal Stadium.

  • 1army w

    2***bengals -5.5
    to be honest i don’t have a feel this game — it’s highly possible that browns lose the top draft pick here with a meaningless december win against aj-green-less bengals. this was just the easiest essay to write. it appears we have a trademarked cleveland ‘ugliest possible weather’ alert for tomorrow. you know the kind: grey and windy and moist and slushy. none of this colorado brisk sunny white snow; you’re staring right at grey slush and the foreboding that there’s four more months of it to come. exactly not what you want to sit outside to watch a winless team stumble around in. no, not even the off-the-chart unintentional humor potential of a peka vs erving in mud matchup can mitigate the drag it will be on the lakefront tomorrow. i got the over/under on attendance pegged at 20,000 and i’m taking the under.

    borcas-clay-gavin and other tailgaters: you the real heros.

    3skins -2.5
    4cowboys -3
    5bucs -2.5
    6pats -7

  • jdoepke

    Army +6 (via twitter yesterday)
    Giants +3 (AP)
    Bears +7.5
    Eagles +2
    Chargers +1

    Essay: Bills +2

    Missed on Buffalo last week so usually that means I don’t play them and they win the next week. Line is low. Buffalo had Oakland handled before giving up 29 unanswered points. It feels like one of Big Bens bad road games and Buffalo controls the clock with the run game. The world has the steelers so I’ll go the other way. 24-23 Bills.

  • RCLA

    So I already took Navy -6 and they lost outright. Thanks assholes. For your service I mean. Thank you for your service to our country. Of course, Army also serves our country and covers a fucking spread now and again, but whatever…

    Houston +6 – I’m not the first to say it but no one in the AFC South is three points better than anyone else in this division on a neutral field.

    Arizona +1 – Miami has no home field advantage and is also not good.

    NYG +3 – I’ll never admit the Cowboys are good. Never.

    LAR +6 – Just a cheap point grab since it looks like Julio is out.

    ESSAY: Pittsburgh -2 – Look, it’s really hard to write 100 words about the fact that this is a must win game for both teams and one quarterback is Ben Roethlisberger and the other is Tyrod Taylor. Buffalo’s defensive front is good and will create pressure but Ben creates time and he won’t need much against Buffalo’s sewer of a secondary. It will be a cold snowy day and the Steelers run defense is materially better than the Bills. Buffalo’s home field is worth + 8 against Miami in December, but I don’t think its worth much against Pittsburgh. Game may be close or may not be, but I do not see how Pittsburgh throws their season away against Tyrod Taylor and this secondary.

  • Browns +5.5 vs. Bengals
    Bears +7.5 vs. Lions
    Bills +2 vs. Steelers #BandofRyanBrothers
    Jaguars +3 vs. Shurmur #battling
    AP: Giants +3 vs. Cowboys

    Saints +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
    A spread based loosely on the theory that the Buccaneers are “heating up”. I am skeptical. There is not much I love more than a weak run-defense and a Drew Brees with something to prove. I predict the Saints will sack Winston over and over again in a valiant search effort for a crab leg dinner. You never know. I think the Breaux/Evans matchup tips in the Saints favor and Winston without Evans is like Manziel without Evans. It’s sad. Neither of these states deserve to have nice things but at least New Orleans has crawfish po’boys, decent stand up bass players, and Ignatius J. Rielly.

    Also – would have liked an NDSU line….just saying.

    • good point, FCS plays wouldve been most welcome this weekend in particular.
      we’ll see if we can get lines for the FCS semis next week.

    • confirming — we’ll have the FCS Semis up next week!

      • Yay! 👯🍾💃🏼👏🏻🔥💁🏼🍸🏈❄️🎉

  • Dave Borcas

    Jets +2.5
    Arizona +1
    Steelers -2
    Cowboys -3 (all play)
    Browns +5.5 (essay)
    Look at all the stats, numbers, match ups and team rankings and there is no way you could pick the Browns to win. Throw all of that out, because the time has come to end this run of losses. Hue has kept this team playing hard and this week they received the ultimate motivation they need. Weekly the team has faced embarrassment at home and on the road. This week the embarrassment hit rock bottom. The national talk shows have joined the sports talk with the embarrassing jokes and comparisons to the 0-16 Lions. The 0-16 parade talk has taken a life of its own. When I heard the interview with Joe Haden you could feel that he cared and this was going to be over. Nothing good comes from losing but the win tomorrow will keep this team in it for the rest of the year and allow them to continue to develop what we hope is young talent. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BROWNS!!!!!!

  • thatsfine


  • bupalos

    Well, Navy’s been good to me for the most part. Let’s try it again. Probably should be an essay, Oh hell, let’s go ahead and make it one.

    Navy basically has an NFL line, you either bring athletes that can compete at that level or it starts to look plumb silly. Prior to the little hiccup last week (which mostly seems to have been just kind of a bunch of stuff that happened) the Middies were on one of the greatest tears I’ve seen in recent years. Probably had about 20 of 25 drives go for touchdowns running about 75% option runs. Army looks fairly stacked against the run but it’s hard to say because I don’t think they’ve really seen an attack that is in this class. They’ve definitely got the backers to make things interesting, but it’s going to be selling out on every play just to cover those 3 options, and Navy can toss it now and then when you do that. Should stay close for a while, but after about the 15th option Black Knight legs will turn to jelly and I think they’ll start going for 5-12 yards every time. The original line of -10 looks a lot more reasonable to me, rivalry or no, so I can’t really justifying passing this over for those NFL lines this week. So let’s see if ‘ol Bup can hang in this thing,

    Navy -6

    • bupalos

      God. I did not think about the potential for —– to be at this game. Of fucking course he is. Don’t want to be any part of this now.

  • cwonder23

    Bucs -2.5
    Steelers -2
    Vikings -3
    Navy -6
    All Play: Cowboys -3
    Essay: Browns +5.5

    What am I thinking? Well, maybe I’m not. The Browns continue to play hard for Hue and I think everyone realizes how important it is for the team to start making progress. AJ Green being out for the Bengals in their lost season eliminates a huge weapon for them. Marvin Lewis, seemingly on a lifetime contract, should be on the hot seat as the team just can’t get over the hump. I think this is the best chance for Cleveland to get is first win of the season. RG3 may show a little rust but he is the Browns best option.

  • RCLA

    Gimme Navy -6.

  • ChuckKoz

    Navy -6 (Army)
    Jaguars +3 (Vikings)
    Cardinals +1 (Dolphins)
    Falcons -6 (Rams)
    AP: Giants +3 (Cowboys)
    Essay: Bengals -5.5 (Browns)
    I have resisted for several years of going against the Browns. I think I have done it like once in Cheddar Bay. Not that I was smart for it, as I am doing shitty for like 2 years in a row, but my loyalty wants me nothing but upset when the lose. Time to put my loyalty in a late playoff push for Cheddar Bay. So what about the Browns demonstrates it can win anything? The bye is nice and RG3 is a player that was supposedly good once. But the Bengals have been a top team for years, on a down year but still retaining most of the talen I guess its defense is aging or something, but I will withhold the idea that Hue Jack gone is the issue, as the Bengals are 8th in offense in the NFL. But that aging defense is not old enough to lose to the inexperienced Browns with a shitty o line. At best, Browns will probably play hard and inspired to a crowd of 40K (announced 60K) and lead at the half like 14-13. Then they will lose 31-17. In an NFL that is hard to predict, there seems nothing more reliable than this formula to losing.

  • Dave Borcas

    Navy -6 today

  • jdope in for army via tweet.

  • Army +6 and for the win. Those all black threads are FIREEE.

  • mmmmsnouts

    Ah, the “six NFL games” week to pretty much kill my playoff hopes. I didn’t pick this game, but make sure to check out the Seahawks-Packers snow bowl on Sunday. Should be an all timer.

    ALL PLAY: Cowboys -3 vs. Giants
    Ravens +7 vs. Patriots
    Vikings -3 vs. Jaguars
    Lions -7.5 vs. Bears
    Panthers -1 vs. Chargers

    ESSAY: Falcons -6 vs. Rams

    The Rams are a disaster on and off the field. Worst offense in the NFL. Can’t run the ball at all. Fans already turning on them in their new city. Jared Goff hasn’t inspired any optimism. And Jeff Fisher is completely off his nut, getting all Machiavellian behind the scenes and making about a zillion excuses trying to save his job. (Did you know Fisher only needs to take two more L’s to become the NFL’s all-time losingest coach? He’s on 164 losses; Dan Reeves had 165. Of course, Reeves also made the Super Bowl four times.) Atlanta is off a kind of fluky loss to a very good Chiefs team and no longer has any margin for error to win their division or make the playoffs. This looks like a big ol’ ass kicking.

  • CLEinMSP

    Navy -6
    Texans +6
    Panthers -1
    Steelers -2
    Cowboys -3 (All Play)
    Bucs -2.5 (Essay)

    The Brees era Saints are historically pretty bad when they have to go on the road and play any team of substance. The Bucs have won 2 straight and are in a race with the Falcons to win the NFC South. In one of those games, the Bucs handled the red hot Seahawks in Tampa. This is pretty much a must win game for the Bucs as they go on the road for a couple games after this. I think they will be really locked in, and with the Saints on the road with nothing to play for, I think the Bucs is the pick here. I would think this has the recipe to be a high-scoring game which will give me a reason to check in on it as well.

  • pateslvrblk

    Steelers -2
    Lions -7.5
    Pats -7
    Cowboys -3
    ***Falcons -6

  • Brian

    Navy -6
    Colts -6
    Lions -7.5
    Falcons -6
    Cowboys -3
    Cardinals +1 ***ESSAY***

    The reason for this pick is because I just don’t think Miami is a good football team. I think that their 7-5 record is phony. 5 of their wins are against teams that will have a top 8 draft pick next season. Also being said they haven’t beaten a team that has a record that is better than .500 other than a non Roethlisberger steeler team. They got dominated by a ravens offense that threw the rock around like it was a 7-on-7. That being said the cardinals offense has way more weapons than the ravens. Yes Miami is 5-0 at home and yes they seem to be a different team there but they have yet to beat a team by more than a touchdown at home. And 3 of those wins are against teams with a combined record of 4-32. I understand you can only play who you have scheduled but, 7-5 against their just doesn’t impress me one bit. The cardinals have the MVP of the league in David Johnson and I think he puts on another clinic in this game. Give me the Cardinals for 3

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Army +6
    Panthers -1
    Browns +5.5
    Cowboys -3
    Cards -1 essay

    Essay coming Sunday am

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      My thought behind this pick is the cards are a much better team than the dolphins. Sure the dolphins are a much better team at home but the cards just have so many weapons, and a defense capable of exposing tannehill. I’d say the cards have the advantage of having the better offense defense and coach. That’s enough for me.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Army +6

    rest later

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye



      Bengals (non-essay essay)


    1. Army +6
    2. Giants +3 (all play)

  • army. because i’ll be rooting for army.
    … and though i reject the trend of attention-grasping uniform manipulation as an embodiment of form over substance and reflective of a general frivolousness which plagues current society and thereby threatens western civilization…
    … and notwithstanding the monstrosity of marketing a product with ‘all american’ by a company whose manufacturing operations of collegiate apparel/equipment/footwear employ 15,000 in indonesia; 58,000 in china; and more than 115,000 in vietnam compared to 3,597 in the USA…
    army’s unis gonna look great. (not essay.)

  • Jmacdaddio

    Giants +3 (All Play)
    Panthers -1 (stunk it up last week, should be better at home. Chargers are going nowhere. Except LA. Maybe. Who cares anyway?)
    Cardinals +1
    Colts -6

    Despite not watching as much college football as I wanted this year, I’m going through withdrawal. While the Army-Navy game is a great tradition, I’m glad the rules have changed to not make it mandatory since it’s more of a ritual than a contest. NFL ball has turned into a corporate yawnfest. The CFL is over for the season. I don’t think there are any upstart leagues going now. If the UFL were solvent I’d consider a bet just to earn my True Degenerate badge. This week I’ll stick with the NFL, which has a couple of late lines. I don’t have an essay candidate just now, yet tradition of unwinding with picks must be upheld. So, 4 picks for now, 2 more coming when the late lines are in, as well as the essay.

    • Jmacdaddio

      A season of firsts. I don’t think I’ve used a late line.

      Titans -1.5 (Essay)
      Vikings -3

      The Titans are a decent team in a situation with all to play for in the up for grabs NFC South. The Broncos suddenly look like an also-ran. Playoff bound perhaps however the division isn’t going to happen. This may have looked like a gimmie for the Broncos when the schedule was released, not the case now.

  • PJD19

    Essay Army over Navy

    I’m picking Army because my Dad always roots for Army in this game, because his Dad served in the Army during WWII. Also I read that the Navy QB, who sounds like a good player, is out this week. Navy has won like 14 or 15 in a row and things are bound change at some point, so what the heck why not this year? I’m guessing it will be cold and not great weather and Army has the better (rated) defense. I’ll take the six points.

    PS – Mike I think i only hit my essay last week out of all of my picks, but i don’t think i got any points in the standings. Admittedly i didn’t fill out the form, but i put my picks in the thread. Thanks!

    • can you submit last weeks’ picks? ill make sure they get placed in the right spots for credit. thanks.

      • PJD19

        sure! thanks.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 15 Picks

    Army (+6) over Navy – If not this year…when?

    Browns (+5.5) over Bengals – Coming off the bye week in what should be a miserable day by the lake will Hue protect RG3 and actually run the ball? I suspect he will and the Browns find a way to lose by less than five.

    Lions (-7.5) over Bears – Well…I’m sold. If you did that to Brees and the Saints you should take care of the Bears.

    Colts (-6) over Texans – Andrew is good. Brock is bad.

    AP – Cowboys (-3) over Giants – The Giants are the best good bad team. That makes perfect sense to me. I also love this narrative that the Browns could have Dak and Zeke and it would not matter. Eventually you have to get good players…you can trade for them. You can buy them in free agency. You can even draft them. Sadly…I did not go to Harvard so I am of no use in Berea.

    Essay Pick

    There is a certain insanity in benching the reigning MVP of the league for not wearing a tie. We are talking about a guy who wore two different neon color shoes last week…at work. The real insanity however is bringing in DA and having him throw a screen pass. There is nothing good that can come out of that. You have DA hand the ball off or throw 25-40 yard routes. That’s it.

    This type of power play by a coach is something that can destroy a team and I wanted to see how they would react after getting destroyed in Seattle. So I waited…and waited. Nothing.

    Guess that guy does control his locker room. In a lost season with injuries everywhere and losses piling up and the playoffs a pipe dream this guy benched his MVP. This is the type of thing that would lead local news in Cleveland and have beat writers with bumper stickers talking about firing the coach. I guess the Panthers are a good team just having a shit year.

    Panthers (-1) over Chargers

  • FTCMikeD

    Texans +6 over COLTS
    BUCS -2.5 over Saints
    AP: Cowboys -3 over GIANTS
    PATS -7 over Ravens
    Gotta go with Navy laying the points in the essay. They have looked pretty good all season long. And Army will probably give them a good fight as always in this game, I just think that Navy is too talented to take the points. If this were a bit higher, I’d probably go with Army. But at -6 I’m going to go with Navy. Their offense is much better than Army’s offense, both in the run game and with the rare pass. Navy does give up more yards on defense, especially against the pass, but Army won’t pass it that much. Also, I think Navy has played the much tougher schedule with wins against Houston, Memphis, and Notre Dame. Look for the Midshipmen to extend the streak.

  • Troy Bunting

    **Essay Pick
    Cincy -5.5

    Total momentum pick. Cleveland has a strong tailwind pushing them towards a no win season and I don’t see this week flipping the tide. The browns are a big ol’ dumpster fire and the organization just through a whole bunch of gasoline on it by letting RG3 start. I’ll set the over/under on Vontaze Burfict ending his season (probably with a cheap shot) at 3 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. On the other side, the Bengals have played a lot of close games this year. Riding the wave they started last week by beating up on the Eagles and carrying that momentum into this week.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Navy -6
    Chargers +1
    Bungles -5.5
    Pitts -2
    Lions -7.5
    AP and Essay ****Cowboys -3

    • actovegin1armstrong

      AP and Essay ****Cowboys -3****
      The line should be higher, with Jason Pierre-Paul out of the game the Lions should win hands down. Virtually every match-up gives the Cowboys a big advantage, the Cowboys offensive line will roll over the Giants defensive line keeping them under their thumb all night, (down to me, the change has come), the Cowboys have a better quarterback, Archibald Manning’s son throws the ball to the wrong color jersey too much, the Giants may stop Ezekiel Elliott but they will not have a chance unless they pull a Safety up in the box, their front seven will not lay a finger on him. Justin Pugh coming back will help the beleaguered Giants offensive line, but the Cowboys will control the line of scrimmage with just 4 players, stopping the run and still being mean to Archie’s youngest boy.
      I would like to express exactly how the Cowboys shall dominate this game, but I cannot put my finger on it exactly, rem acu tetigisti, perhaps Vince Lombardi said it best.
      “The price of success is hard work, we have applied ourselves to the task at hand.”

      • you got covered in the form acto.

  • Galea Minor

    Cowboys – 3 over Giants (all-play)
    Army +10 over Navy
    Jags +3 over Vikings
    Seahawks -3 over Packers
    Texans +6 over Colts
    Lions -7.5 over Bears (essay)

    Essay later

    • Galea Minor

      So today could be the funeral for the Same Old Lions.

      In the last 25 years the Lions have shown a few sparks of promise before falling flat on their faces. In 1995, they charged hard down the stretch to end the season 10-6, went to the playoffs, and got throttled by an Eagles team starting former Lion Rodney Peete. In the Bobby Ross era they made the playoffs a couple of times, narrowly missed others, never made noise. The 07 team started 6-2 and blew it. This causes every Lions fan to believe that, even when the team is talented and reasonably successful, they will not beat anyone worthwhile, make noise in the playoffs, or contend for anything meaningful. Because they’re the Same Old Lions.

      As the Lions were winning games on the last drive week after week, their success was greeted with a heavy dose of bemused skepticism. Yeah ok, it’s nice, but they’re the Same Old Lions. We’ve seen this movie before. So we’ll just enjoy the wins and expect that they’ll end soon.

      Then that Saints game happened. Whoa man. That changed some things around here.

      The Saints aren’t great, but they’re a great offensive team and they always rock at home. Lions defense put the screws on them for 60 minutes. The Lions offense, even when settling for FGs, never stopped applying pressure and easily put the game out of reach. No 4th Q comeback, no heroics, just a dominant win. No one around here has seen anything like it. The Lions played that game like they were, without a doubt, a strong team and a legitimate NFC contender. Sports radio callers unanimously agreed that they can’t remember the Lions playing such a complete, fundamentally sound, and impressive game since 91.

      So yeah, we’re hyped. But, Same Old Lions is not dead. Because the Same Old Lions would get lazy and complacent. The Same Old Lions would drop this absolutely must-win contest to the Bears at home today. So we’ll see.

      If the Lions take care of business like they should today, they’ll finally have the full and unwavering support of Detroit.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Chiefs -3.5

    • Lucy Lawrence

      2. Army +6

  • Capitalgg

    1. Chiefs -3.5 v. Raiders: Based strictly on the weather report.

    • Capitalgg

      [All-play] Cowboys -3 @ Giants: Cowboys have 1 loss. It was week 1 v. these Giants. Revenge is a powerful motivator.
      2. Texans +6 @ Colts: Colts off big win, Texans off big loss. For every action, equal & opposite.
      3. Falcons -6 @ Rams

      Since I started Cheddar Bay, I’ve always picked the Army-Navy game and I’ve always hit the pick.

      This year has been by far the hardest to pick. Navy is hella beat up with injuries, being down to their 47th QB or something. Navy also had to play last week in the AAC Championship game getting crushed by Temple. Army has been sitting at West Point practicing for Navy since November 19. That’s a lot of time to rest, heal and prepare, but also a ton of time to have the muscle memory of competitive games start to atrophy.

      So I’m sitting going back and forth. Navy has been an excellent team this year rolling up a 9-3 record and getting hot in November with wins over Notre Dame, Tulsa, ECU and SMU, the latter two by 66-31 and 75-31 scores respectively. But then Temple happened and Navy lost another starting QB.

      Army on the other hand arguably peaked in September with wins over Temple, Rice and UTEP (66-14). From there they only won 3 more times with 2 of those coming against 1-AA fodder in Lafayette and Morgan St and a 44-6 lose to Notre Dame.

      So the teams split against common opponents with each winning against 1 and getting blown out by the other. And this line opened at Navy -10 and has dropped to -6 an indication that the sharps and Navy’s QB injuries were on Army at 10.

      Not for nothing Army is wearing some of the coolest uniforms for this game that Nike has ever made. Navy is countering with decent throwback-looking by Under Armour. Combined these special uniforms make this game annually 1 of the most watchable games.

      So Navy has sung last for 14 straight years and are the betting favorite to do so again this year. And my gut says despite being down another QB that they make it 15 this year with bounceback off the AAC championship loss, but in the Baltimore cold and with the extra time to prepare, I expect a low scoring game and a battle to the end. And I think that Army +6 is still the winning play.

  • I’ll join the Raiders party, too

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Foiled by a camera cable? It has to be an NFL exclusive. That is the first time I have ever yelled at the TV.

    • I vote for the goat. Navy -6

      • Agnes won’t even let me load the dishwasher without rearranging all the dirty dishes herself, and yet she claims that I’m capable of talking her out of winning football votes. Imagine that.

        Anyway, I’ll take the Browns today for my Vote of the Week. Nothing fancy here. These Browns really don’t want to go 0-16, they had an extra week to prepare, there’s hardly any tape out on RGIII, and Hue will pull out all the stops in what looks like the last best chance to get a W this year. Of course, with the shape the offensive line is in, Griffin might not last another quarter against Atkins, Dunlap & Co., but hopefully he can make a few plays downfield with Coleman and Pryor running around out there. Also, it would be good timing for the Browns to undermine their draft position with this report that they place an “astronomical” draft value on Myles Garrett.

        Other votes: Bills, Packers, Giants.

  • thatsfine

    Chiefs+3.5. Seems like the kind of game the Chiefs win to get in good position for the postseason before inevitably losing in the wild card or divisional round.

    • thatsfine

      I know the Chiefs was -3.5 that was a mistype.

  • oxr

    Raiders +3.5 over Chiefs – wouldn’t have been that shocked if the “+” was a “-“, honestly, so I’d better pick this one.

    • oxr

      Stupid special teams. Oh well, we endure:

      Redskins -2 over Eagles
      Broncos +1.5 over Titans
      49ers -2.5 over Jets – I know I know but bryce petty you guys
      Patriots -7 over Ravens

      All-Play/Essay Cowboys -3 over Giants – It’s not smart to be underwhelmed by a six-game winning streak in the NFL, even set against a ten-game one. However, if the Giants don’t secure one-score victories over the Bears, Rams, and Ravens this game probably isn’t sold as a toss-up. I think picking the Giants is basically a bet on Odell Beckham blowing up, which is certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but if he can be contained the Giants don’t really have a whole lot of other weapons and I much prefer Dallas’ offense; JPP being injured doesn’t help matters. The Cowboys have looked dramatically better (for the most part) against their common opponents. Sure, the Giants squeaked by them in the first week of the season, but that was long ago in another country. Dallas it is.

  • agnesbojaxhiu


  • zarathustra

    I actually started out the week leaning pretty strongly toward the chiefs. They have one of the best home field advantages in the league and are returning home where they lost their last game. Moreover, they have owned the Raiders recently. They have a really good, opportunistic defense. They lead the league in turnover margin. They are one of the smartest teams in the league, whereas the Raiders seem to be a talented but not very smart team.
    This is really a strange game as both have negative yards/play differential yet are playing for the one seed. Both teams have relied on coming back in the fourth quarter to win games, but the chiefs seem to do so by grinding it out to prolong the game, just waiting to seize on an opponent’s mistake. The Raiders, on the other hand, just seem kind of lucky….and that’s good enough for me. A few weeks ago I swore a blood oath before the gods pledging fealty to the Raiders and I shan’t be breaking that vow now. I do plan on cravenly breaking said vow in January, but now is not the time to give voice to future treachery. Let us all praise the explosive team from Oakland that Lady Fortuna proudly smiles over.

  • FTCMikeD

    Raiders +3.5 tonight over the CHIEFS

  • pate is in on the raiders via text message.

  • Chris P.

    West Point +10 Annapolis
    Raiders +3 Chiefs
    Browns +5.5 Bengals – keepin it close in crappy weather?
    Jets +2.5 49ers – I don’t see how the 49ers are to be trusted against anyone…. so when I see a line that says the 49ers are even money on a neutral field against anyone, even the craptacular Jets, I take that money, thank you very much.
    Cowboys -3 Giants

    All right. I know the Ravens aren’t the RAVENS. And I know they had an easy schedule, and I know the AFC North isn’t exactly at it’s zenith right now. But good lord, the high temperature for Monday night in Boston is freezing. It’s a night game. Gronk is out. 10-15 MPH winds forecast. Snow probable. That’s not borderline two score weather.

    The Pats defense is iffy right now anyway. That’s not two score circumstances, Brady be damned. They’re not winning by 8 or more when they have a three game lead with four to play. They have a game lead in the bye race, and one of those teams they’re fighting with for that bye has to lose tonight anyway.

    Ravens +7 Patriots

    • Raiders line is +3.5…just letting you know, not that it changes your thinking on the pick.

      • and for that matter Army is +6. Which might matter.

        • Chris P.

          Good grief. I wish I’d been drinking so I had something to blame this nonsense on.

          I’ll stick with Oakland, obviously – but thanks for the heads up on Army.

        • Chris P.

          Sticking with the Raiders worked so well that I’m going to stick with it through the Black Knights. They always play Army close, and I think this is the odd year where Navy is banged up, on a letdown week, and isn’t as up to play Army as normal.

          Plus, I think Army is much better than we’re used to. 6. yes.

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