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  • trashycamaro

    Ravens +3 over Giants The Ravens were overrated when they had a 3-0 record…but they are certainly better than the G-men.

    Steelers -7.5 over Dolphins Speaking of overrated, the Dolphins are as well, only getting 7.5 at home against the Steelers. Should the Browns take a flyer on Tannehill next year? (only if its as a WR)

    49ers +8 over Bills Just because they replaced their offensive coordinator does not mean the Bills should be favored by more than touchdown over anyone right now (except maybe the Dolphins).

    Washington Football Team +3 over Eagles I am not a believer in the Eagles yet, especially when going up against a division opponent who now has plenty of tape on Wentz.

    Default Essay Jets +7.5 over Cardinals Reminder kids, essays are due an hour before kickoff. So if you start writing at 12:15 on Sunday, you have missed most of the slate. That said, I feel pretty good about this one. The Cards have been slumping pretty hard with the pass blocking and inaccuracy of Carson Palmer/Drew Stanton leading the way.

    So about here is where I usually plug in some great stats about the matchup – like, for instance, that Arizona is running #23 in offense (one spot over the NYJ), bogged down by a #26 ranked passing attack (so bad, it is 3 ahead of the NYJ). The Cards running attack is much better at #13, but still behind the #11 NYJ.

    Of course, the problems for my analysis start when we start looking at defensive play. The Cards come in boasting the number 6 overall defense while the Jets are stuck way down at 30. The good news for the Jets and their running attack is Arizona is average against the run and pretty great against the pass, opening the way for the Jets strength. Meanwhile, the Jets are awful against the pass, but their #3 Rush defense outclasses the strength of the Cards offense.

    Importantly, I also believe the Jets passing offense has nowhere to go but up. While Decker is out for the rest of the season, Fitzpatrick is ready to get back on track. He has had plenty of bad stretches before, but I think he starts getting back to a league average passer. With the honey badger still not at 100%, I see the Jets keeping this one close. And with Palmer unable to connect on the deep throws (Palmer is ranked between Jameis and Kessler overall, and getting only 7.5 yards per attempt on 58.5% completed passes), the Cards will not be able to take advantage of the crumbling NYJ pass defense.

  • PJD19

    Seattle essay over Atl

    Atl’s wins against Denver and Carolina are looking a little less impressive in the last few weeks and Seattle’s slow start is looking like just that – a slow start. Everyone knows Seattle is tough to beat at home and i think they match up really well against Atl. Sherman will be shadowing Julio Jones. Atl pass defense is really weak and Seahawks are finally healthy. Earlier this week public was on the falcons, as a road dog with the line creeping the other way. I like Seahawks by 2 scores +.

  • UncleBuck

    *Essay*

    Panthers -3 over NO

    So my essay picks this year have been awful, save a few goods ones early on. I am going to attribute this to being a first year cheddar member, and not yet finding the right balance between emotionally invested picks and ones that supported by the numbers or at least my analysis of them.

    Wanting to try something new, I am going to essay the game I literally care the least about. That game obviously is the Panthers giving 3 to the Saints. At this point I am trying to tweak the formula, and this is what I came up with. In saying that, I do think that with Cam playing and the Panthers backs in the corner (have you ever seen a cat backed into a corner?) they will show flashes of what they had last year and win by a comfortable margin.

    Desperate times…

  • Nick

    Illinois (w)
    Texas Tech (L)
    Tulsa (w)
    OSU (L)
    Eagles -3 vs Redskins
    Niners +8 vs Bills *
    Lady Gaga sang last year’s National Anthem at the Super Bowl and it was a beauty. I looked over at my wife towards the end of the rendition, and we were both in tears. That performance deserved it. I could listen to Gaga sing anything. Her performance of “The Edge of Glory” in 2011 on Howard Stern was one of the better radio moments I have ever heard. This is all to say that I agree with mostly everything Frowns essay’d, and so Kaep starting under center again is enough of a reason to take the Niners in this spot. Three wins in a row for Buffalo so I can only assume the Ryan brothers have eaten their fair share of pork rinds these last few weeks and are set for an off week. Gotta think the Niners keep it close, as Kaep inspire his teammates, and a good game plan from Crazy Kelly helps cover 8.

  • clayII

    tOSU (-10)

    • clayII

      Indy (+3)
      GB (-4)
      KC (+1)
      Wash (+3)

      • clayII

        Essay bag week.

        Jets (+7.5)

  • Tim Butler

    OSU

    • Tim Butler

      Bengals +9
      Lions -3
      Niners +8
      Raiders -1

      • Tim Butler

        Essay cards -7.5

        It’s been a pretty busy weekend, and so I am left writing my essay on my phone from a Wyoming Flying J on a game I don’t feel strongly about. It’s also been a pretty terrible weekend for my cheddar picks so I just decided to go against what I’m feeling tonight. My gut is telling me the cards are laying too many points, but lately my gut doesn’t know shit. My gut is also telling me that I should take advantage of this mix-and-match sale on beef jerky, finally my gut gets one right. I’ll take the crappy cards over the crappier jets at home. Look for Geno Smith in the second half.

  • Matt Borcas

    Notre Dame
    Wisconsin

    • Matt Borcas

      Panthers -3 over Saints
      Browns +7 over Titans
      Eagles -3 over Redskins

    • Matt Borcas

      Essay: Cardinals

      Things aren’t going swimmingly for either the Cardinals or the Jets, but the difference is that Arizona is a solid team off to a slow start, while NYJ is just plain awful. $12 million man Ryan Fitzpatrick has already thrown 10 interceptions, and the Cards boats perhaps the strongest secondary in the NFL. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer’s return should energize the Cardinals’ offense. Admittedly, I’m a bit concerned about Arizona’s injury-riddled offensive line, but the electric David Johnson could find holes with five Austin Pazstors blocking for him. The Cards will win big and get their season back on track tonight.

  • Peter Markos

    OSU -10
    Essay Raiders -1 over Chiefs
    Bills -8 over 49ers
    Steelers -7.5 over MIA
    PATS -9 OVER CINCY
    USF -19.5 OVER UCONN
    The Bulls can score. They are not great in the trenches. The skill positions are their strength. Average teams cannot keep up. UCONN isn’t even average.

    The Raiders are what we wish the Browns were. They have not wasted high picks lately. They have a QB, WR and a super star on defense. What could have been. The Chiefs really need this game but the momentum is with the Raiders

    Steelers are really good. They laid an egg recently against the Eagles, so I doubt they will be prone to do that again soon. Tannyhill just is not the guy, but the Fins made him rich. How they rid themselves of Tannyhill will be the focus of the off season.

    RBG called Kap’s protest stupid. Wait till she she’s him play. The 49ers are the saddest story in the NFL. Unlike the Browns, they were good and now are a dumpster fiire

    The Pats scary. Brady is 39 and does not look old. Not sure the Bengals can keep up with them.

    If JT Barrett wins the Heisman, He deserves it. He has a great story and has the leadership quality this great to root for. Badgers go down and become a chapter in the story.

  • oxr

    All-Play OSU -10 over Wisconsin.

    • oxr

      Falcons +6.5 over Seahawks
      Steelers -7.5 over Dolphins
      Colts +3 over Texans
      Browns +7 over Titans

      Essay Packers -4 over Cowboys – Last week wasn’t a total disaster but I’m still looking for that elusive second correct essay. Since I can hardly trust my own instincts (which have led me to pick the Lions exactly wrong the last two weeks) I’m falling back on the wisdom of this particular crowd and going with Green Bay. Dez Bryant is still looking unlikely to play as of this writing. Green Bay looks like they have a better shot at slowing down the run than, say, Cincinnati or the Niners did. The Cowboys’ defense is vulnerable (25th in DVOA so far) and if Rodgers can get them up by a couple of scores it could be tough for them to come back by rushing. Alternatively, they’ll romp all over the Packers and I’ll sink further into a slough of football-picking despond.

  • RCLA

    Arkansas +8 – I actually know this pick is bad as I am making it. Like, I can see right now that the score is going to be 42-24 Mississippi…yet I post.
    OSU -10 – Wisconsin can clow a team like Michigan that needs to run the ball down. OSU do what they want.
    Packers -4 – A rookie QB for a team that didn’t make the playoffs last year is playing on the road against a healthy Aaron Rogers and the line doesn’t have a “1” in front of it? OK bro. OK.
    NYG -3 – I don’t think Baltimore is good? And at some point Eli is just going to take the offense back from McAdoo and start throwing the ball around at his leisure.
    KC + 1 – This was my essay but all the money pouring in on KC (they are -1.5 as of this posting) scares me. Not enough to not pick ’em, but enough to remove them from the essay.

    Washington + 3 – I came into this season with the not remarkable opinion that all the NFC East teams are pretty much equally mediocre. Dallas can run at will but their QB situation is unsettled and their D still below average. NYG should be able to throw the ball but can’t run it and their defense is average at best. Washington actually has an offense and a defense that are just “OK” at everything. And Philly was supposed to have the best D in the conference but lack skill position players and QB sufficient to be better than average overall. The thinking now is that Cousins may not be “OK” and may be “bad” and that Carson Wentz, Ryan Matthews and Jordan Matthews and an o-line that is good on the rare occasions it is healthy are enough for Philly to be better than average. I’m up in the air on the Cousin’s narrative. But I like him at home this week. I am not up in the air on Philly’s offense. It is overrated. It being football season, Lane Johnson is already hurt. Ryan Matthews is probably hurt because, ya know, Ryan Matthews. And he sucks anyway. Jordan Matthews is good, but the rest of the receiving core is either not 100% (Ertz) or not good at sports (Agholor, probably some white guys). This seems like a relatively low scoring game and I don’t think any NFC East team is three points better than any other NFC east team on the road, Not buyin’ it. Please sweep my lost chips away quickly dealer, it pains me to look at them

  • ChuckKoz

    Utah -9 (OSU)
    Bengals +9 (Patriots)
    Lions -3 (Rams)
    Bears -2.5 (Jags)
    AP: Ohio State -10 (Wisconsin) – line seems high, but i don’t bet against my team
    Essay: Packers -4 (Cowboys)

    The Cowboys have been greatly aided by a favorable schedule and the amazing fortune of not turning the ball over. Sure, the coaching and Dax deserve credit, but its just not possible to keep having no turnovers. We have all watched enough football (both good with Buckeyes and awful with Browns) to know there is a lot of randomness to turnovers and the pendulum is due to swing back pretty darn soon on the Cowboys. Then there is the absurdity of this offense success happening without Dez Bryant being a thing. In sum, I see the Cowboys as a team that will fall their way back to earth, hopefully starting this week.

    Meanwhile, we have a Packers team that is on their 3rd home game in a row, which featured an amazing offensive show against Detroit where they were up 31-3 (late scores made it closer) and a strong performance against the Giants where they were up 23-9 (until a late/cheap TD again made the game look closer than it was). So the Packers are playing better football than they are getting credit for and should have little trouble this week.

    I am also heartened by the seeming consensus of Cheddar picks on this game for the Pack.
    Packers 26, Cowboys 16

  • HitTheHorns

    1) New Mexico St +5.5
    2) Wisconsin +10
    3) Notre Dame -3
    4) Chiefs +1 (essay skip week)

    • HitTheHorns

      5) Skins +3
      6) Texans -3

  • zizzer13

    Kent State -1.5 over Miami
    Alabama -13.5 over Tennessee
    Wisconsin +10 over Ohio State
    Houston -21.5 over Tulsa
    Packers -4 over Cowboys

    Houston’s loss last week to Navy opened the door for Western Michigan to sneak into one of the New Year’s Day bowls as the best of the crap teams. They’re ranked for the first time ever, if I’ve heard that correctly. PJ Fleck is a man on a mission, a guy so determined in what he believes in that he’s arbitrarily and single-handedly changed his school’s nickname from the Broncos to something involving boats and hoes, or rowing machines, or something like that. There’s more oars on their uniforms than Broncos. I don’t get it, but what I do get is that this guy knows his ticket to ensuring he’s set for life involves running the table the rest of the way and getting into one of the money bowls. So yeah, Row the Mother ‘Effin Boat…

    Western Michigan -10.5 over Akron

  • bupalos

    External events have Bupalos pacing up and down the halls this week, paging furiously through his history books to find a qualifying world event between 1933 and now that would qualify as “tragedy,” to help reassure his troubled mind that this ramblin’ wreck will stay squarely in the “farce” lane. We certainly have the opera buffo character, but we’ll keep you posted.

    But that’s only indirectly what has ‘ol Bup tied in knots in making some college picks this week. No. The specific problem there is that the world of NCAA point spreads is one of derivative relative value, and it’s been a very bad week for the whole concept of derivative relative value in El Noggin del Bupalos. Why? Derivatively. A certain phrase is currently being invoked as if it was being sold in supersized boxes via buy-one-get-10-free coupon at the Daytona Florida SuperWalmart, deliverable everywhere via Amazon Prime: “That’s someone’s daughter.” “That’s someone’s wife.” Take a moment to sit and reflect, and perhaps to compare and contrast the situations in which the feminine and masculine versions of this statement are invoked. if you happen to be a sentient being, you’ll also want to make sure a barf bag is handy and a salt-water resistant eon calendar. Take it from a father of 3 children that are very lucky no part of their value derives from their father. They are each worth all that and a wilderness of monkeys.

    A good thouht, but how, marinating in reflections like these, is poor Bupalos to choose a morally essayable NCAA college football spread to grasp before he sinks beneath the waves? That’s the beauty of this Bay my friends, life rafts abound. And lo, the nearest of them is that of Ms. Pryde, who further notes me the virtue of an essentially nonexistent spread? Purrfect. Witness, baymates, as a sinking Bupalos goes to the cats, grabbing the Red Raiders by the Kitty to help him emerge from the muck.

    Or to put it simply, Texas Tech -1

    • bupalos

      And I’ll take a B1G feast of Purdue, Wisconsin, and Nebraska as well. Good points all around.

      • bupalos

        Finishing it out with Bengals +9 and Packers -4 today

  • John

    Clemson -17.5 to NC State

    • John

      Bama -13 to Tennesseee

      **all play** Ohio State -10 to Wisconsin

      • John

        Sunday picks
        Bears -2.5 over the Jags
        49ers +8 over the Bills

        essay
        Seahawks -6.5 over the Falcons

        The Seahawks are coming off a bye week, and rarely lose at home.

        this matchup is literally #1 Defense versus #1 offense. and we all know who wins that…(see Broncos last year)

        and I know what I am going to say will sound like blasphemy- but I think Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are hit and miss. and today they miss. isn’t it about time for a Falcons collapse (see last year)

        Let’s go Russell.

  • jdoepke

    Wiscy +10 (AP)
    Syracuse +19.5
    New Mexico +14
    Northwestern +4.5
    Chiefs +1

    Essay:
    Indiana +3.5

    Admittedly, this scares me a bit. The line opened at 7 and is now down to 3.5. I’d feel better if it was a night game but I can’t go against the data. 67% of tickets on Nebraska, 60% of money on IU, line is dropping, home dog vs top 10 team, etc. Nebraska escapes with the W but wins late 31-30.

  • 1) UGA -14
    2) UNC Charlotte +5.5
    3) Troy -17
    4) Chiefs +1
    5) Steelers -7.5
    6) Ohio State -10 (All Play & Essay)

    Essay: Ohio State -10

    I’m not sure I’ve hit an essay all year, with the exception of my week 1 OSU pick. As a result, I’m putting my faith in Urban and the Ohio State Buckeyes to get me back on track. Urban Meyer has a history of getting his teams properly prepared for big games and delivering victories in them. It certainly helps to have a Heisman candidate executing the offensive game plan behind center. Wisconsin on the other hand is going to be relying on a Freshman QB (Hornibrook) who has two starts under his belt, with stats that don’t exactly jump off the board against quality Big 10 teams. In fact, against MSU on the road he had 2 turnovers (1 fumble, 1 interception) and against UM on the road he had 3 turnovers (all interceptions). He’ll get the benefit of being at home tonight, but I expect Ohio State to come out strong, put some points on the board, forcing the Freshman QB to throw the ball, which will result in multiple mistakes that allow Ohio State to pull away, win, and cover.

  • Matt Lawrence

    Northwestern +4.5 @ MSU
    Texas Tech +1 vs WVU (Essay-skip week)
    Notre Dame -3 vs Stanford
    Alabama -13
    OSU -10 (all play)
    Browns +7

  • ARKANSAS.
    BUCKEYES.
    NEBRASKA.
    49ERS.
    JAGUARS.

    $$$ WESTERN MICHIGAN $$$ essay to come.

    • Well, unfortunately forgot to hit “Post” on my essay before I ran out to door to the Tribe game today, rendering this essay pick moot. Nobody’s fault but mine. So, 49ERS it is.

      $$$ NINERS $$$
      This originally made my list simply on a gut feeling. And while I don’t want to go without data to support, I think that’s how I gotta roll with this one. I don’t think Chip Kelly will get a third chance as an NFL head coach, but to that end, I don’t know if Rex would either. And, as abysmal as Kaepernick was last season before he got benched, he hasn’t been paired with Chip in a real game. Not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing yet, and I think all the media attention on him of late is a bit over the top. He’ll be ready to roll, he has never turned it over much (TD/INT ratio is real solid), and he’ll stress the defense with his running ability.

      Bills are on a roll, and there’s not big money lining up to back San Fran, but I’m on board, and I’ve always been a Kaepernick fan.

  • pheasantpants

    Nebraska -3.5
    Pitt -3
    AP: Buckeyes -10
    BGSU +30.5 – been a rough season in Wood County and Toledo is obviously better, but there hasn’t been a margin of victory in the series this big since Urban Meyer was on the sidelines.

    • pheasantpants

      OK, upon reflection, I think it’s time to get back to the college football essays, and OSU is a great candidate. Ten points seems like a lot for a team visiting Camp Randall, one of the Big Ten’s toughest venues for a road team over the last 20+ years. Wisconsin was the surprise of September in beating LSU and Michigan State. Here’s the thing about those two teams though: they aren’t very good.

      Wisconsin did play Michigan close, which is illustrative of their ability to control the pace and flow of a game through stingy defense and tough line play. However, Michigan under Jim Harbaugh is perfectly content to play such manball. OSU has superior speed, athleticism, QB play and explosive play capability to their East division counterparts. Wisconsin will acquit themselves well, but OSU is the #1 team in the nation, in my eyes. 31-13 OSU

      • pheasantpants

        Stanford +3

        • pheasantpants

          Packers -4

  • zarathustra

    Chargers*** (W)
    Ohio St
    Notre Dame
    Ohio
    CMU
    Browns

  • Dave Borcas

    Rest of the picks
    Michigan State -4.5
    Oklahoma -10.5
    West Virginia -1
    Ohio State -10 (all play)
    Bengals +9 (essay)
    Only Carolina has been more disappointing than the Bengals when it comes to the preseason prognostications. The major factor in the Bengals slow start has been their porous offensive line. Andy Dalton is throwing the ball well, even though he lacks a big weapon in Tyler Eiffert. What is nagging Dalton is being sacked at an alarming rate. Only Andrew Luck has been sacked more often than Dalton. The line is also not giving Jeremy Hill the openings that he enjoyed last year. The Patriots are flying high with Tom Brady back. The Patriots biggest weapon continues to be Bill Belichik and and his ability to game plan week to week. Other than Brady, nothing on that Patriot offense will scare you. Brady will be tough in his first home game this year. I see the Patriots winning a tight game around 27-24. Goooooooo Browns!!!!

  • ***Niners +8 over Bills***

    Colin Kaepernick must be walking a lot taller today than he was the last time he started a football game, after having single-handedly started a national conversation about how the inequities of slave culture persist today in ways that people should generally be more conscious of.

    https://theintercept.com/2016/08/28/colin-kaepernick-is-righter-than-you-know-the-national-anthem-is-a-celebration-of-slavery/

    I suppose this should be something that plays well in the Niners’ huddle and hopefully on the field for the Niners offense in this one. Also, one imagines that Kaepernick in Chip Kelly’s scheme will present some wrinkles that Blaine Gabbert did not, in ways that no one has had a chance to study on film. On the other side, the Bills have been super hot since replacing their offensive coordinator after Week 2 and seem due to cool down with 3 weeks of tape out on their new scheme. And as good as the Bills have been the last three weeks, they might be considered something of a break for the Niners given the slate that SF has played so far (Rams, Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Cards).

    I’m fully aware that the Niners might be in full trash-fire mode, which would be especially easy to understand after Kelly failed to summon the stones to defy his boss Belichick by keeping Eric Mangini on as defensive coordinator (The greatest trick Belichick ever pulled was convincing the world that his former protege who beat him consistently shouldn’t exist). But anyway, Kaepernick is enough reason for me to vote for the Niners to keep this within 8.

    Other votes:

    Tennessee +13 over Alabama
    University of Mississippi -8 over Arkansas
    AP: Wisconsin +10 over Ohio State
    Titans -7 over Browns
    Packers -4 over Cowboys

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    THE Ohio State
    U at Buffalo +10.5
    THE Kent State -1.5
    Titans -7
    Dolphins +7.5

    West Virginia -1

    A road favorite? In Lubbock? Dana must be sober, and the ‘Neers must be good. The total is a ridiculous 84 here, so this is going to be wild and probably going to have some moments I have to sweat. But WVU can keep scoring and has two backs to be the closers. The Texas Tech defense is a different kind of awful, and I look for WVU off a bye week with an experienced team to keep its poise and end up winning a shitshow. I’m currently awful at this, so go Neers

  • **Essay**
    Texas Tech +1 vs. WVU
    If TTU wins the game, they cover the spread. I think they’ll win this game. I revel in mornings, Cheddar logic, and decisions as simple as this. As MTV U plays Beck’s “WOW” – so yes, universe, I hear you, this is a solid choice. TTU is 3-0 against the spread at home, starting at about 60 degrees right now, and will make it way into the high 80s. The Raiders and their fans will heat up accordingly. “Giddy up” as the Beck song serenades to me right now, “it’s your life” and my life right now is a unicorn onesie, a glass of OJ, and the promised of yoga on the horizon. I imagine life for the Red Raiders is similarly pleasurable right now, waking up in their own beds to a crisp fall morning with the promise of sun and warmth in the future, ready to face opponents who have wearily traveled 1,500 miles to sweat their asses off. Another great song, Gooey, by Glass Animals, is on now, and urging me to wrap this circumlocutory piece up.
    #battleoffirearmwieldingmascots

    Western Michigan -10.5 vs. Akron
    Eastern Michigan +7 vs. OU
    #YearoftheDirectionalMichigans

    Connecticut +19.5 vs. South Florida
    #nowyouhavefishcake

    AP: Wiscy +10 vs. OSU
    #fadethepublic

    Dolphins +7.5 vs. Steelers

  • Hawkaholic

    Texas -13 at home against the Clowns
    Oklahoma -10.5 at home vs K State
    Arkansas +8 at home vs Ole Miss
    Redskins +3 at home vs Philly
    AP: OSU -10
    Essay: Nebraska -3.5 on the road vs Indiana

    Kiss you all over by Exile was at the top of the billboard charts the last time Nebraska faced off against Indiana. That was Sept 30, 1978 when Tom Osborn’s Huskers took the Hoosiers to the woodshed winning 69-17 with Lee Corso coaching Indiana. Nebraska is coming into this one with a perfect record and ranked in the top 10 again, much like the days of old when Nebraska was relevant. This years match up should be an entertaining one, a couple of good offenses and 1 decent defense in Nebraska. Terrell Newby looked pretty good last week running the ball and Nebraska’s run game in general has been very good. This game will be largely decided on the decision making of Tommy Armstrong. If he can avoid the turnovers i think the Huskers roll, the Hoosier Defense will be a decent test for him and i think he does make a mistake or two but in the end makes enough big plays with his legs to get the W. Nebraska 30 – Indiana 24

    Hawkeyes update: They aren’t very good, the line is terrible, they can’t stop the run, they have no deep threat, Beathard has regressed which is all too typically for an Iowa QB under Ferentz. As of this morning they are 11.5 favorites on the road against Purdue. I don’t give them much of a chance to cover that spread.

  • Brian

    STEELERS -7.5
    PITT -3
    LA TECH -14
    LSU -24.5
    OSU-10
    NEBRASKA -3.5 ***ESSAY***

    Really the only reason for this pick is because of the odd line. Not that Nebraska has been untouchable this season, but -3.5 just doesnt seem enough against an Indiana team that hasnt really looked that good this year. On top of that the Cornhuskers have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and Tommy Armstrong has proven to be a solid QB this year. Just think Nebraska has more athletes and will win the game by a few scores, I do not see it being a field goal game. Go Huskers

  • Concierge

    Kent -1.5
    Ohio -7 essay
    OHIO STATE -10
    UTSA -3.5
    Colorado state +31
    Bengals

    I love what Chris Creighton has been able to do at EMU. For a program that plays in front of 500 people nearly every week to have had 20k people at the Factory last week is amazing. This 4-2 record is nothing short of a miracle. Problem is? I just don’t know how good they are. They wins vs Wyoming and BG who is junk. I think today they face the big boys. This ohio front 7 is just nasty. I think they will create havoc all day for Brogan Roback who for being a highly recruited kid couldn’t win the job 3 years in a row. Love that the eagles are on the rise but today they find out what its like to play a power house and the fight in Frank Solichs.

  • Nick

    Tulsa, Illinois, Texas Tech

    OSU all play thanks

  • Capitalgg

    Picks written while traveling to Nashville…

    [All-play] Ohio St. -10 @ Wisconsin: Until Urban loses a road game at OSU, I’ll continue to assume it’s not possible.
    1. Texans -3 v. Colts
    2. Seahawks -6.5 v. Falcons
    3. Patriots -9 v. Bengals
    4. Western Michigan -10.5 @ Akron

    Andy Reid is 15-2 for his career coming off the bye week. The Chiefs have had 2 weeks to stew on getting blown out by the Steelers in primetime. And they are playing a divisional rival they are familiar with. And despite the record, Oakland has not played well this season against not the toughest schedule, yet somehow has 4 wins. So this week, my play is Chiefs +1 @ Raiders.

    Ravens +3 @ Giants
    49ers +8 @ Bills
    Browns +7 @ Titans
    Packers -4 v. Cowboys
    Ohio -7 v. Eastern Michigan
    Maryland -6.5 v. Minnesota
    Northwestern +4.5 @ Michigan St.
    Indiana +3.5 v. Nebraska
    Pitt -3 @ Virginia

  • Jmacdaddio

    Wisconsin +10
    Miami -8
    West Virginia -1 (Ess-eh)
    Michigan St -4.5
    Panthers -3
    Falcons +6.5

    There’s a lot of home dogs this week. I was tempted to take Rutgers and the 6 points, however that’s not enough to tip the balance. I was tempted to make the Falcons my essay, however with the Northwest about to get Biblical rain I think it’s a wise idea to not risk too much capital on a game where anything can happen. As for West Virginia, I was wondering why I didn’t see them competing against other American Conference schools. That’s because they joined the Big 12 in 2012. They appear to be on a roll, having taken care of quality opponents. Texas Tech isn’t bad either, and is putting up points like most Big 12 teams these days, however West Virginia should prevail.

  • FTCMikeD

    CLEMSON -17.5 over NC St.
    AP: OSU -10 over WISC
    Ravens +3 over GIANTS
    BILLS -8 over Niners
    *****
    Andy Reid is something like 15-2 ATS coming off a bye week. That is good enough for me, but I’ll give some more info… The Raiders might have the most penalty yards in the NFL. So while they have a great record, they’ve been lucky in a sense, in that the most penalized team does not usually have a great record. The Chiefs should be stewing after that big time loss against the Stillers on Sunday night two weeks ago. That should be some extra motivation with Andy Reid’s normally good preparation during the bye week. The Raiders’s wins seem to have been coming against pretty bad competition like the Saints and Chargers so I think they’ll come back down to earth on Sunday with a loss to the Chiefs.

  • mmmmsnouts

    ALL PLAY: Ohio State -10 vs. Wisconsin
    Oklahoma -10.5 vs. Kansas State
    Pittsburgh -3 vs. Virginia
    Packers -4 vs. Cowboys
    Eagles -3 vs. Washington Football Team

    ESSAY: Saints +3 vs. Panthers

    There is absolutely NO juice in the college lines. I’d love Houston -20.5, but not -21.5. I’d roll with Wake +21.5 but not thrilled about +21. Even Hawaii -7 looked good before it went to 9. I would spend all my units on over/unders this week if I was actually gambling. I don’t really believe in any of these picks but I guess as an essay I’ll pick the Saints, who are coming off their bye week and getting a tired Panthers team who absolutely gave a game away on Monday night and may already be done for the season at 1-4. Carolina can’t stop the pass anymore, Newton’s already had two concussions this year, and I’ll grab the points with the much fresher team at home.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Missouri

    Overall, I straight up hate this card. Had trouble even coming up with 6 games. This though was as good as it gets I guess in college. Mizzou stinks. They are unappealing in every way. No names. Bad offense, weak defense, no coach. There isn’t really anything to ilke, kind of like this card. Florida, are they better? Probably not. Just about the same. I’ll take the points cause I have to take something.

  • thatsfine

    SDSU -16.5 – this has the makings of a “woodshed” game, to quote my grandma.

    • thatsfine

      Well, the weather is getting ugly here in the PNW. Better get this week’s votes posted in case we lose power tonight. Might be back tomorrow morning to swap out the Temple pick.

      NMSU +5.5 – essay below
      tOSU -10
      CSU +31
      Temple +3.5

      NMSU has a terrible defense (2nd to last in FBS), but they have the 29th ranked passing offense in FBS and a stud RB who is back in the lineup and now fully healthy. NMSU junior RB Larry Rose III is the only guy on either of these teams that stands a chance of playing on Sundays. He was the Sun Belt’s 2015 Offensive POY and a 3rd team All-American. This year he missed NMSU’s first 4 games after sports hernia surgery. He returned against UL-Lafayette 2 weeks ago and had a nice game (23/121 yards, 1TD, plus 3 rec/49 yards) in the 2OT win, but history shows he’s capable of more. Having shaken off the rust and had a bye week to rest up he should be ready to put up huge numbers against Idaho’s 113th ranked defense. QB Tyler Rogers has 7TD/9INT, which is bad but 5 of those INTs came against Troy and I’m tellin’ ya Troy is a really good team with an overlooked defense. He was solid against ULL with Rose back in the lineup to take some pressure off, I think he’ll be solid against Idaho as well. I’ve watched Idaho 2 weeks in a row, and it’s safe to say they don’t do anything well. At least they’re “balanced” in that regard. Offense is 100th ranked passing, 103rd ranked rushing. They wouldn’t have won last week if UL-Monroe didn’t spot them 16 in the 1st quarter via 2 turnovers and a blocked punt TD. They were outgained by over 100 yards but benefited from 4 turnovers and really didn’t deserve to win. I essayed Idaho so it was hard to watch, just waiting for ULM to pull ahead but they kept giving it away with turnovers and mistakes. The Aggies are the better team with Rose in the lineup and will win this one.

      • zarathustra

        I’m buying what you are selling.

    • thatsfine

      Wash +3
      Just woke up. We have power and football. Yay.

  • memphis tonite.

    • 1 mem loss
      2 fiu -2.5 at cha
      3 at ark st -4.5 sala
      4 at skins +3 eagles
      5 falcons +6.5 at seahawks
      6 at wisc +10 osu

      not sure where the essay is coming from but there will be one!

      • we’ll just roll with the skins +3 at home and use the no-essay week.

  • cwonder23

    Tulane +11.5 vs Memphis
    WMU -10.5 @ Akron
    Syracuse +19.5 vs VT
    UNC +8 @ Miami (FL)
    WIsconsin +10 vs OSU
    Essay: Raiders -1 vs Chiefs

    I think the Raiders are the superior team here and are eyeing a division championship. Derek Carr has made the leap and has finalized a connection with Crabtree. The Chiefs seem indecisive at the RB position. Khalil Mack puts Alex Smith on the ground. I truly think the Raiders have chance to make some noise in the playoffs while they continue to mature on defense. I’m surprised that this spread is only 1 and I expect the Raiders to win by a TD. Raiders 24 – Chiefs 17.

  • pateslvrblk

    Washington St -8
    Hawaii -9
    Raiders -1
    Ravens +3
    OSU -10
    ***Pats

    I messed up last week not falling on the “Brady back” bandwagon, because it just looked too easy. The old rule never bet on a two digit point spread in the NFL does not apply to Brady or Belichick. This week the spread is 9 and I don’t think the payback from Brady is over with. I’m riding the Tom Brady wave, this is his redemption tour or more specifically he is probably on his revenge tour because of the four game suspension. You saw what they did last week on the road to Cleveland, watch what they do this week to the Bengals. The Bengals might be up with the losers, but they can’t hang with the elite. Bottom line, when you throw Marvin Lewis out there against Bill Belichick, I’ll take the hoodie!

  • CLEVTA

    1. Duke +34.5.
    2. GA Southern +10.5
    3. Tulsa +21.5
    4. Rams +3
    5. Wisconsin +10 (all play)
    All play and potential POTY coming Sunday

    • CLEVTA

      6. Chiefs (essay)- sometimes I forget a majority of cheddar follows me on twitter. Doesn’t surprise me too much there’s lots of KC essays out there. I kind of showed my hand earlier in the week. The Andy Reid off bye stat is already out there but it’s legit. KC also coming off a blowout L on national tv vs the steelers so they have even more motivation. But above all else this is a play against the Fraudulent Raiders. Oakland being 4-1 is like a starting pitcher who has 20 wins with an era of 5. They’ve been outgained on all 5 of their games, they have the worst defense in the NFL and on a net yards/play basis they are close to dead last. The only difference between the raiders and chargers is luck. And who has Oakland actually beaten anyway? Saints, Titans, Ravens and SD? Not impressive. KC will control the game and the clock with Ware and a now healthy Charles while mixing in Kelce and Maclin in the pass game. I actually think KC wins by double digits

  • CLEinMSP

    UCLA +8
    Indiana +3.5
    Tenn +13
    Packers -4
    OSU -10 (All Play)
    Arkansas +8 (Essay)

    I am reeling, and my picks have been absolute dog shit for the last 3 weeks. Ole Miss first true road game and they are favored by 8 at Arkansas. I look for the Hogs to bounce back after they got their asses kicked at home last week against Bama. I watched a decent amount of the Arkansas – A&M game at Jerry World, and I thought Arkansas was right there with them, but shot themselves in the foot a few times. I think this will be a shootout game, and I’ll take Arkansas with the points at home.

  • Chris Schroeder

    -3.5 University of Texas San Antonio @ Rice
    -3 Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky University
    -2.5 Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins
    -8 Washington State vs. UCLA
    All Play: -10 Ohio State @ Wisconsin

    Essay: -17.5 Clemson vs. North Carolina State
    Location: Clemson, South Carolina
    Stadium: Memorial Stadium
    Time: 12:00 PM
    Broadcast: ABC
    Weather: 71 Cloudy ESE 3 mph
    Mascot: The Tiger vs. Tuffy
    The Game: Clemson’s offense will be no match for North Carolina State’s defense which might look decent on paper but hasn’t played an offense like the Tiger’s. Deshaun Watson hit a road bump earlier this season and found his gear last week against South Carolina State. This game I believe will not be over looked by the Tigers since this will be the last true test before a fairly easy slide (Florida State might give them a run for their money) for the rest of the season setting up trip the national football playoff. Death Valley will be too much for the Wolfs. 41 – 17 Tigers.

  • LittleBallofHate

    Rest of the picks for this week (after taking Chargers last night)
    Louisville -34.5; Nebraska -3.5; Pitt -3; Buckeyes -10
    ESSAY
    Steelers (-7.5) at Dolphins
    Ben Roethlisberger returns to the site of his first NFL start, which has undergone 1,000 name changes and a massive renovation since then. Roethlisberger is 4-1 vs. the Fins and he leads the league in touchdown passes with 15. Le’Veon Bell also just so happens be averaging 166 yards from scrimmage in the two games since his return. Pittsburgh is rolling while Miami is just awful. Ryan Tannehill is regressing and the offensive line is awful. Plus with how bad they have played the first five games, Adam Game sounds like he is on the verge of strangling someone. With the Bengals at New England and the Ravens struggling on offense going into their game against the Giants, the Steelers could really start to open up ground on the division with a win on Sunday. As if those storylines aren’t enough, this is a Ed Hochuli game. The gun show is in full effect in Miami this weekend!!!!

  • p_forever

    packers -4 cowboys
    arizona st. +8 colorado
    arizona +8 usc
    southern miss +24.5 lsu
    ohio state -10 wisconsin
    mississippi -8 arkansas***

    “if you don’t get even, you’re just a schmuck.” apparently this sentiment animates the majority of men in this country, and i’m figuring the ole miss football team is no exception. last year’s overtime loss to arkansas cost them a trip to the sec title game. they’ve had a long time to think about how they will exact revenge this time around, including a bye week. chad kelly, who joined a brawl at his brother’s high school football game this past weekend, seems especially full of rage lately. that just doesn’t bode well for arkansas, whose defense has been giving away 6.6 yards per play. both of these teams have 2 losses. but that doesn’t make them equals (false equivalencies seem to be another thing politricks and sports have in common these days). mississippi has been in every game, and led for big stretches in both that it lost. arkansas got blown out. arkansas is looking much worse halfway through the season than they did at its start, especially on the defensive side of the ball. mississippi is on a winning streak and is playing better than it was early in the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. ole miss for me thx.

  • Galea Minor

    0-6 last week, nice.

    OSU -10 over Wisconsin (All-play)
    Iowa St + 13 over Texas
    Arkansas +8 over Ole Miss
    Tennessee +13 over Alabama
    Raiders -1 over Chiefs
    Lions -3 over Rams (Essay)

    Ok, after all I said about the Lions last week, they get hit with the defibrillator. And now, I think this is a winnable game for them.

    Look, the Rams are not good. I still don’t trust the Lions very much, and truth be told, this is just a tough slate of games for me. I’m not real confident about any of these picks, and this is one of the hardest seasons to handicap I can remember.

    But what a difference between 1-4 and 2-3. The Lions could easily win this game at home, and suddenly look like a team in control. When they show fight and execute on offense, they can be competitive with everyone. Darius Slay had a phenomenal game against the Eagles. There’s pieces to be in it. They just occasionally spend parts of the season looking like complete assholes.

    However, I’m just not going to buy-in, long-term. There’s just too much history. I don’t expect them to do any better than 9-7, and they’re probably still axing Caldwell at the end of the season. But they’ll be good enough to wind up with a draft pick that’s too high to do anything with!

    Ah whatever, I’m gonna go 0-6 again.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Unc +8
    Mich st -4.5
    Ohio state +10
    Texans -3
    Steelers -7.5
    Browns +7
    Sounds like mccown will be back this week. The Browns can certainly score and this week feels like the week they get their first win. The titans haven’t been impressive on offense against some of the worse defenses of the league. This browns team plays hard for Hue. They’ll score and keep it within a TD.

  • Dave Borcas

    Broncos -3 tonight

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    This week I am going to try my luck with an essay about an NFL team-my first of the season. I usually like college better because of the long shot cover opportunities and off-night games, but variety is the spice of life. This week I am doing a traditional Sunday afternoon NFL game mostly because I like the Packers and they fit with my algorithm (based on my supposition that the cowboys have covered too many weeks in a row). I like the packers because of their “public” ownership model (the shareholders do not actually make any money on the team-all profits go to charity). Although the individual owners cannot do much with their 1/5,011,557 share vote, they do get the pleasure of knowing that their team is funded by fans, rather than taxpayers. Considering every home game has been sold out since 1960 and the waiting list for season tickets is 86,000 people long (estimated length of time for the last person to get their tickets is 995 years), they must be doing something right in the happiness generating department. I would consider being a share holder if they were to be offered again, but the NFL ownership rules state that you cannot publicly criticize any NFL team or employee, and what would be the point of cheddar bay if you can’t poke a little fun at a truck stop rebate scammer. I also assume Green Bay isn’t terrible since the only team they have lost to this year is the Vikings.

    Packers -4 Sunday
    Jets +7.5 Monday
    East Carolina +3 Thursday
    Wisconsin +10 Saturday
    Duke +34.5 Friday
    Georgia St +17 Saturday (A little sad I missed getting a Wednesday vote in this week but hopefully this will make up for it)

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      Phooey on the East Carolina game being postponed. I’ll take the Chargers tonight instead because I can’t wait another day for some cheddar action

  • DQuatts

    DQUATTS Essay:

    San Diego +3

    Unfortunately I’m running against my home squad but I am doing it for a reason. The Chargers are good. The Broncos struggle to score points. Also, the game between these two squads is always tight. Like tight, tight. Therefore, I will take the points. I think SD will get off to an early start and continue to roll. Denver needs a health check, and going through a two-game losing streak will do just that. I hope broncos win, but if they do, it will be 24-23.

    • DQuatts

      Rounding out the week:

      Green Bay
      Washington
      New Orleans
      Atlanta
      Ohio State
      San Diego***(W)

  • actovegin1armstrong

    ****Texas Tech**** +1
    West Virginia has not played a team that looks as good slinging the ball around as Texas Tech. All of my intuition says that this should be a light up the scoreboard snore fest where neither team plays defense, so the smart money is on the under. (I am terrible at over-under)
    West Virginia’s Skyler Howard does not look all that spectacular to me. He is alright throwing on the run, but he is not exactly a world beater under pressure, I have as yet to see him with an entire defensive line wrapped around him stand in the pocket looking like Roman Gabriel, throwing the ball and the occasional defensive end 60 yards down field. If the Texas Tech defense gets to the stadium on time and puts some pressure on Howard this game may not be the boring track meet I expect it to be. Skyler Howard is a bit prone to interceptions as well and losing a possession or two may be the difference if this is an NBA All Star Game replica where everyone agrees not to play defense.
    West Virginia’s kicker Josh Lambert is gone, he is a great kicker and even though kickers are not football players, they are very important when it comes to winning close games. Coincidentally his replacement is also a kicker, that has to be a bad thing.
    I am not a big fan of either of these teams. I think the line is a bit off in favor of West Virginia because of their record, but when you watch both teams, they just look a little above average so Texas Tech with a bit more talent and home field should win this game.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 7 Picks (Special POTY Edition)

    Colorado (-13) over ASU – I hate human polls. Heads over to prediction machine and glances at NCAA Rankings. Colorado is 11 and ASU is 43. Data can explain this huge line move this week.

    Bills (-8) over 49ers – Yeah…that won’t get out of hand at all. You can stop beer sales right now.

    Bears (-2.5) over Jaguars – Has Hoyer been given the Chicago market by Mr. Hero yet? A Romanburger stands on it’s own anywhere. Even Chicago.

    Browns (+7) over Titans – This feels like the week.

    AP- OSU (-10) over Wisconsin – The Browns would also destroy Wisconsin.

    Play of the Year

    Years ago when I joined the Bay I was lost. I thought I knew what I was talking about. I still have no clue but that first year was humbling. I sought out some advice and was told to find a team at the college level that is good or bad and ride them. I was also told to learn a conference inside and out. I managed to put together a few playoff berths on understanding the WAC, laughing at Idaho, and building my makeshift shrine to Jordan Lynch.

    Saturday brings us a sad day. Have you ever heard of a conference telling two members that they can leave now? The idiocy of football realignment brought us Idaho and New Mexico State in the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt informed them they can get out after this year because it turns out they just bought a map at Pilot and Coastal Carolina appears to be closer than you guys and we only want 10 schools. Ouch.

    I’m a big fan of stability when it comes to college programs. Idaho has moved quickly. It has decided to drop down to the Big Sky which is a much better fit for them. Paul Petrino is now in his fourth year at the helm and has went from 1-11 to 1-10 to 4-8 to 3-3 this year. This gives them something to build on without the idiocy of trying to go independent like New Mexico State.

    Idaho has won two road games this year. You try playing in a pole barn and go out and win actual road games. It’s hard. I should know following this team the last couple of years.

    I like Idaho in the pole barn Saturday in a Sun Belt cast off game.

    Idaho (-5.5) over New Mexico State.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      “I hate human polls”
      Stay out of Parma Ohio

      • GRRustlers

        I’ve been trying to figure this out for the last 15 minutes but I just keep coming back to “Stay out of Parma” and nodding to myself.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          When I was but a young pup growing up in Cleveland it was a generally accepted but most assuredly untrue fact that Parma Ohio was the second largest Polish city. Second only to Warsaw. Probably started by Big Chuck and Hoolihan.

          • GRRustlers

            Huh. Growing up in Medina I just thought it was where pierogies and acid washed jeans came from. That and some bakery my grandparents swore by.

  • FTCMikeD

    Broncos -3 over CHARGERS tonight please

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Northwestern +4.5
    NU is Northwestern, right?

  • Troy Bunting

    Essay Pick
    Arizona State +13
    This pick is based primarily on Colorado’s track record as a Pac-12 team. In the 6 as a member they’ve only won 18 games (including this year.) They’ve had a few breaks, scored some points and have decided to make an appearance in the top 25 this year, however this is the first top 25 ranking they’ve had in 11 years and over 3 head coaching changes. I just don’t believe they’ll beat ASU by 13. ASU is by no means a strong team, but they can score a lot of points. They margin may be 7 points either way and the total score may be in the 80s or 90s, possibly even 100+, but ASU ends up on the winning end of the line.

  • Chris P.

    Broncos -3 Chargers
    Eastern Michigan +7 Ohio
    South Florida -19.5 Connecticut
    Wisconsin +10 Ohio St.
    Tennessee +13 Alabama

    Can’t get much more stark than this.

    Northern Illinois blows. Jordan Lynch is long gone, and they’re 1-5. They beat Ball State. They lost clean to Wyoming. They lost clean to San Diego State. They lost clean to a directional Michigan. THEY LOST CLEAN TO A DIRECTIONAL ILLINOIS.

    It’s hard for this to register, because the Huskies have been so good for so long in the MAC, but it couldn’t be clearer this year.

    On the flip side… Central lost to the best team in the MAC. Virginia got hot to beat them. They have a win over a top 25 team, and have taken care of business in the rest. There’s no reason to think they can’t beat NIU on the road by a field goal. None at all.

    But most of all, it’s because we’re human beings. We’re capable of learning. We see a dangerous populist with naked ambition and we don’t even let a loon like that get started.

    bad example.

    Well, I’m more capable of learning than a Republican primary voter. And this is week 7…. and after scouring pages and pages of stats, one stat stands out starkly among all football gambling stats.

    Chris P. record when writing an essay about a directional Michigan, and declaring this the “YEAR OF WINNING WITH DIRECTIONAL MICHIGANS”

    2-0

    Chris P. record writing an essay about anything else, despite declaring this the “YEAR OF WINNING WITH DIRECTIONAL MICHIGANS”

    0-4

    SCREW THAT. THIS IS THE YEAR OF THE DIRECTIONAL MICHIGAN.

    Central Michigan -2.5 Northern Illinois

  • mmmmsnouts

    So mad Navy-ECU was postponed. Would have been all over the Middies.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Iowa State +13
    AP OSU

  • zarathustra

    Chargers****
    I bought chargers super bowl futures last spring and I’m actually not that depressed about them yet. Yes, it sucks that the odds have decreased substantially. And yes, it sucks that they are 1-4. And yes it sucks that they aren’t as disciplined of a team as you would like. Moreover, the fact that they have lost 10 straight division games does not engender confidence. Oh, they also have the worst home-field advantage in the league. (Wait a minute….why am I picking the Chargers again?)
    They do have a good qb though and that alone compensates for some of the above. The team they are playing no longer has a good qb. They do have a good defense though and they are 4-0 with that average at best qb. Who did they beat? Panthers, Colts, Bengals, and Buccaneers. Teams that were good or expected to be good, but none are at .500 and all have looked dreadful at times thus far.
    The Chargers have been unlucky. Yes, they have blown several big leads and turned the ball over far too much so bear responsibility for their misfortune but I’ll wager the turnover rate slows down going forward.
    The Broncos are of course traveling on short rest and I like the Chargers to get another big lead, but not blow it this time.

    • four stars? is this poty?
      for that matter, just to confirm — this is essaypick?

      • zarathustra

        Heavens to Murgatroyd….no. My confidence is totally shaken. Not ready for a poty yet. Just a typo.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    UNC + 8 @ Miami
    Bama -13 @ Tenn
    KC +1 @ Oak
    Steelers -7.5 @ Dolphins
    All Play: Wiscy +10
    Essay: Browns +7 at Titans

    The Browns are a mess but I don’t think they are bad enough to be a 7 point dog to the Titans. Tenn has beaten the Lions, Texans and Dolphins, all who suck. They have scored less than 20 pts in all their games but one which is encouraging when rooting against them. I truly think this is the game the Browns have to win if they don’t want to risk going winless this season. Whether it’s Kessler or McCown I trust the Browns to be able outscore the Titans. This has the feeling of coming down to a field goal at the end of the game which is fine by me either way!

  • actovegin1armstrong

    May I please have App State -10, and that team from 420 land with the Horse Faced GM -3?