Wk 6, Bama -14 at Ark.

Re: my pick of the year. Welp.
I hasten to point out that FHCF hit something like nine of his last ten essays last year, so don’t count Kanick out but dang. At least I have some good company down at my end of the standings and I wouldn’t count them out either.

Anyhoos, you can thank me in the comments for passing on a Shirtless Bielema featured image for this post. You are most welcome.

Late lines TBD: MiamiO at Akron; ECU at USF; Bucs at Panthers.

Here’s your best and worst ATS teams, YTD.
screen-shot-2016-10-05-at-4-15-14-amscreen-shot-2016-10-05-at-4-16-28-am


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  • trashycamaro

    OSU for the all play, good stuff tomorrow. Can’t really see why anyone would pick up on the Badgers here, and cheddar agrees, 2:1 for the double digit road favorite.

  • clayII

    Panthers (-4.5)

    Going with DA here. Panthers need to get right here and home division Monday night great spot. DA has never given fucks, and won’t start here in likely his last ever Monday night start. He will be slinging and if they get off to quick start, they can get after old crab legs, and finally get their running game going

  • Matt Borcas

    Essay: Bucs

    In retrospect, Tampa’s Week 1 win in Atlanta looks pretty impressive! Sure, the Bucs haven’t tasted victory since, and their Week 4 loss to Denver wasn’t particularly encouraging, but the 2016 Panthers are a far cry from the 2015 Panthers–and that was *before* Cam Newton went down with a concussion. Derek Anderson is starting, and this ain’t 2007. Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, Joe Jurevicius, and Chudz aren’t walking through that door; meanwhile, Jameis and Mike Evans are primed for a big night. While Carolina’s secondary is depleted, Bucs rookie sensation Vernon Hargreaves should keep Kelvin Benjamin in check. Tampa wins this one big.

  • bupalos

    Success! Sacrifice complete, now time to collect on pack -7

  • UncleBuck

    *Essay*

    Bengals over Cowboys.

    I could be accused of plagiarism based on DQuatts essay right below mine, but I’ll summarize the same reasons I’ve chosen Bengals as my essay. I really don’t think Dallas is anything special, and I say that while still showing respect for what Dak has done. They had to grind it out just to beat the 49ers, which is not something to brag about. Not sure if Dez is playing, but I wonder how effective he can be going against a tough Bengals D. That brings me to the Bengals side, and what I see as a lack of respect for one of the best regular season programs in the league. AJ Green will get his, and they have the heart and soul of their D back from suspension.

    Nothing noteworthy in this analysis, but just a game that jumped out to me as one that needed my attention.

  • DQuatts

    Texans
    Redskins
    Falcons
    Packers
    Arkansas (L)
    Bengals

    Two things here: I am not convinced Dallas is that great of a team. I also believe Cincinnati had a slow start to the season. Cincinnati had expected to have a couple more wins by now and Dallas would have been happy to get a win or two without their leader, Romo. Clock management will win this game. I think a Cincinnati defense can put some pressure on Dak. Goal for Cincinnati: get Dallas to turn the ball over. If they can do that, I believe they can win the game. Should be a good one!!

  • bupalos

    Bupalos is admittedly having a little trouble out of the gate this year. While it’s no surprise or shame that his picks haven’t generated the vulgar “points” you groundlings all scramble over one another to try and grab, he will admit to having disappointed himself in creating that Bupalos Essay Magic that, let’s be honest, makes this place run.

    And again the muse falls silent this otherwise fine Sunday morning.

    Which means it is time. Time to return to the bupalian roots and offer up once again my richest sacrifice, a pick so selfless and virtuous the muses will have no choice but to cast their glance upon this poor servant, and grant him again the holy fire with which he will purge this naughty lot.

    CMFB, +10, for 3 rich cheddar points and an entire wilderness of inspiration.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Your beautiful prose is always a joy to behold and you know I love you Bupa, but Common Mode Feedback Loop is within my realm of comprehension, however I am unaware of the significance of your specific identical acronym. Please help a dum guy like me.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Sorry. I figured it out…. You of course meant Cincinnati My Favorite Bengals. I think they may actually be 5 point favorites.

  • PJD19

    Essay Bills over Rams
    Since honesty is a cornerstone of the cheddar bay competition, i need to volunteer that i just plain forgot to write an essay on my “essay pick” Bama yesterday. Since I’ve already used my skip week, I’d like to switch that to the all play one pointer and my essay pick will be the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams. This game features two good defenses and two mediocre offenses. But since firing Greg Roman after week two Buffalo seems like a different team on offense. A lot of folks are saying a big difference is that the plays are getting in a lot quicker to Tyrod and he’s having a better chance to scan the field at the line and read the defense and prepare to make a play. I have no reason not to buy it, makes sense to me. The biggest difference is the though is the o-line which looks like a different group. Shady has running room and clearly has been taking advantage. Beef on week + molson > sushi + wheatgrass shots.

  • CLEVTA

    We not grading the Nc State/ND game?

    • got it. (also missed grading auburn and IU grading this afternoon.) standings up to date.

  • clayII

    Bama (-14)

    • clayII

      SD (+3.5)
      DEN (-6)
      BUF (+2.5)
      WASH (+3.5)

  • Matt Borcas

    Arkansas, Florida State for tonight

    • Matt Borcas

      Browns, Colts, Falcons

  • trashycamaro

    Bama for the All-play. Good stuff tomorrow.

    • trashycamaro

      Titans +3.5 over Dolphins Can we agree that the Dolphins are bad; Tannehill is a bad QB; the Dolphins still have yet to figure out how to do running plays; and for some reason they have no pass rush despite Suh charging up the middle?

      Fine. The Dolphins are 22nd in DVOA and 27th in DAVE (which combines predicted perfomance with actual perfomance). Tannehill’s ranks across Football Outsiders different QB stats: 31, 32, 32, 31. Drake returns some positive value, Ajayi and Pead return negative value (special shout out: Crowell #1!!!!); the O-Line actually ranks top 5 overall for running the ball but their rating in open field runs shows that their running backs are unable to take advantage of the massive holes provided. Finally, the Miami pass rush ranks 15th with an adjusted sack rate of only 5.7%.

      So what does this mean? It means I take the points with a team that is built to shorten the game by running the ball and avoid mitakes because they are aware of their limitations.

      Alabama over Arkansas

      Bears +4.5 over Colts If there is anything that can get Hoyer going, it’s a bad defense!

      Bills +2.5 over Rams Bills aren’t real good at defense, but playing in LA they will look like it!

      Vikings -6 over Texans Can’t go 2 weeks in a row without a single favorite in my NFL plays.

      Bucs +4.5 over Panthers I am not yet a believer in the Derek Anderson/Kelvin Benjamin stack.

      I like the Browns +10 at home over the Pats, but I’m 0-3 with my teams this year, so I will abstain.

  • Dave Borcas

    NE -10 essay
    You have many choices in his game. Is it the Tom Brady revenge tour? Is it Billy Boy getting shut out at home for the firsts time ever? Is it Gronk missing his buddy and teammate Tom Brady? The Browns have been very cooperatives far this year. As cooperative as they have been they are without a win and have many injuries. Bill Belichick is not the type of guy to take his foot off of the gas pedal. This game will almost be like a practice, with Tom Brady working on getting his timing down with new receivers like Chris Hogan and old friends like Rob Gronkowski. The New England rush defense has held teams under a 100 yard average this year. The Browns want to run the ball all day, something has to give, and I see it being the Browns makeshift offensive line. The Tom Brady revenge tour could lead to some very lopsided games. I hate to say it but I see New England 45 Browns 10. Prove me wrong Browns.

  • Tim Butler

    Bama -14
    Ravens -3.5
    Pats -10
    Eagles -3
    Giants +7.5
    Essay: Vikes -6

    The Vikes are 4-0 in real football and thanks to the above graphic I now know they are 4-0 ATS as well. The Texans were shutout in their only road game this year, with all 3 of their wins coming at home. Conversely, the Vikes have looked great in their new stadium so far this year, posting a 2-0 record with wins against the Packers and Giants. Brock Osweiler looked every bit the young quarterback he is on the road against New England, and I expect the Vikings defense to make him look even worse. This is a stay in the flames pick for a red hot Vikings team.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts will take Arkansas +14 for the all-play. Thank you!

  • bupalos

    It’s a Saturday afternoon battle of the 17’s. Give 17 with Toledo and take 17 with Navy and Iowa State.

    If anyone is aware of anymore 17 point lines, please alert me ASAP, I feel like this could be my new “thing.” “Look, there goes ‘ol 17-point Bupalos, king of the 17-point play.”

    • bupalos

      ark ark

  • oxr

    Arkansas +14 over Alabama? Sure, Arkansas +14 over Alabama.

    • oxr

      Got to get these in a bit early and use my no-essay/mercy-rule week…

      Bengals PK over Cowboys
      Vikings -6 over Texans
      Titans +3.5 over Dolphins
      Bills +2.5 over Rams

      Non-essay essay Eagles -3 over Lions

  • thatsfine

    Good morning. Another fine day for Cheddar Bay.
    Temple +10 W
    Arkansas +14
    SDSU -14
    Kent St. -1.5
    Idaho +5 – Essay
    NFL pick later

    • thatsfine

      An intriguing matchup between two teams that have been awful since making the jump from FCS to FBS. In 22 years of FBS football ULM has had ONE winning season, 90-164 overall. Idaho has managed 4 winning seasons, but overall has a worse record at 67-162. The Vandals have been kicked out of the Sun Belt Conference after 2017, and just said “fuck it” and are headed back to FCS. I think this makes their remaining games must see football. Both Idaho and ULM have been hammered by good offensive teams (ULM by Oklahoma and Auburn, Idaho by Troy, UW, WSU). I watched Idaho last week, and they just couldn’t deal with Troy’s speed. But, the Vandals didn’t look terrible, and Troy is a really good and underrated team that gets better by the week. Idaho did well to hold them to 34 – the defense was put in bad spots all day long. Both teams can’t stop anybody from moving the football. ULM QB Garrett Smith is also the team’s leading rusher, which isn’t a good thing. Idaho has a more balanced attack that involves handing the ball off to a running back. They brought in their backup QB for a spell in the 4th quarter last week so the starter should be well rested. Their kicker Austin Rehkow is also their punter, and he’s pretty damn good. He nailed a 67 yard FG in high school. Idaho has players on the o-line that just look like fat guys off the street. I like Idaho to win this game straight up.

      • thatsfine

        Bengals PK

  • Dave Borcas

    This weeks picks
    Michigan State -6
    Washington -8
    Georgia State -10
    Texas A&M -7
    Alabama -14 (all play)
    New England -10 (essay to come)

  • pateslvrblk

    UCLA-10
    Maryland-1.5
    Packers-7.5
    Vikes-6.5
    All play Arkansas +14
    ***Western Michigan-19
    P.J. Fleck is an outstanding young head coach of Western Michigan and Fleck is only 35yrs old. He will likely get a big time offer for a big time job following this season. Not only is Western Michigan on pace for the best season in over 35yrs but they are beating the opposition by an average of 26pts per game. Western Michigan is 5 and 0 against the spread. Northern Illinois is only 1 and 4 this season. I know Northern Illinois has beaten this team 7yrs in a row, but it’s a down year which means it’s time to get some payback. Fleck is a Northern Illinois graduate so some may think he’s not going to run it up on them. BS, it’s time to run it up on them, it’s time to make a statement that Western Michigan Broncos are the best team in the MAC conference.

  • FTCMikeD

    OSU -29 over Indiana
    ARIZONA ST +10 over UCLA
    AP: Bama +14 over ARK
    VIKES -6 over Texans
    STEELERS -7 over Jets
    ******
    The Baltimore Ravens have a top 3 defense in terms of yards per play. The Washington Redskins have a bottom 2 defense in that regard. I saw what the Browns rushing attack was able to do against the Skins’ defense last week. I expect Terrence West to do the same this weekend. Additionally, Joe Flacco is way more capable QB than Cody Kessler, and he should be able to use that rush attack to open up some pass routes.

    The Ravens should also be ticked off about their loss last week to the Raiders, one that they could have had. While the Redskins have not looked that good in their wins against the Giants and the Browns; those teams gave them the game. I’d expect the well coached Ravens to cover the 3.5 point spread and beat the Skins on Sunday.

  • ChuckKoz

    Marshall -10 (N Tex)
    Michigan -27.5 (Rutgers)
    Central Mich -12.5 (Ball St)
    Eagles -3 (Lions)
    AP: Arkansas +14 (Alabama)
    Essay: Florida Atlantic -13.5 (Charlotte)
    Normally, I wouldn’t pick an essay game on something I will not watch, but since its that brief time in life where I care about baseball, whatever with football, especially after a rough week last week. My gut says when two 1-4 teams matchup there should never be a team that is double digit favorite, but my guy has been pretty wrong of late. Fact is that Charlotte sucks really bad, Getting blowed out by bad teams past few weeks to lousy teams. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic is losing close at home. And the line has moved up recently quite a bit, so seems there is value in 13.5.

  • 1) CMU -12.5
    2) PSU +1.5
    3) Colts -4.5
    4) Patriots -10
    5) Bama -14 (All Play)
    6) ND +2 (Essay)

    Essay: ND +2

    Everyone’s down on ND, rightfully so. I don’t have any stats to back this pick up, no significant reason to back this pick up, and it wasn’t even what I would generally go with from running numbers. The only reason I’m going here is that I have been awful all year on my essays and have a gut feeling on this one. The rain is coming down right now in Raleigh, it will be getting heavier as the day goes on, and continuing through the game. In such a situation I’ll take the better QB and better coach to manage the game better, not make as many mistakes, and squeak out a win. Not wanting to lose to another mediocre ACC team from North Carolina should provide some additional motivation as well.

  • IRISH +2. only because TA picked the Wolfpack, and I think weather plays a factor-whoever can deal with the wind and the rain takes the cake.
    CONVICTS -3. Jimbo and the boys are gonna have to claw for every yard. Miami 33-20.
    TEXAS STATE +10. Who knows, I always find a small school to follow that makes me money. These guys did it week one against OU when I took them on the ML. And I’m not sure how anyone who only puts up 13 ppg is a 10 point favorite.
    VIKINGS -6. This defense, at home, against turnover machine Brock Osweiler, with no JJ Watt bearing down. I think it just makes for tough sledding. Bradford has been great thus far-they design the game plan around him to limit the risks he’s taking, and he’s shown he can drop the deep ball in the pickle barrel when he needs to. Solid move by the Vikes to get him since they knew they had an all-world defense.
    BAMA -14. When in doubt, go with the head coach. Bielema is 7-18 in SEC play, none of those victories coming against Saban.

    $$$ COLORADO $$$ +4.5
    Sometimes I think traditions and history play too big of a role in setting point spreads, and historically (read: only since joining the PAC12 in 2011), Colorado has been abysmal in conference. And historically, USC has actually played a game that resembles football. But something is different this year, and Colorado looks legit. Sefo Liufau is a player, and had he not gotten injured in the 2nd half against Michigan (Buffs had a 28-24 lead in the third quarter at the Big House against the #4 squad in the land before Michigan pulled away), the end of that game may have been a little tighter. He’s back today after missing the past two weeks, and Colorado’s offense hasn’t been stopped by anyone thus far. USC is unbeaten at home, but that’s against Utah State, and a leaking sieve Arizona State who at times looks like they play with 8 bodies on defense. So I’m discounting the record, and the 41 points they put up last week. They’re giving up nearly 400 yards per game, and they’re facing a QB who hasn’t turned it over yet this season. I’m thinking this turns into a shootout somewhere in the 30’s and Colorado edges it out on the road. Doesn’t get easier down the stretch for the Buffs, so they’ll need this one if they wanna continue their surprising run in the PAC12 South.

  • Galea Minor

    Arkansas +14 over Alabama (All-Play)
    Maryland -1.5 over Penn State
    Miami -3 over FSU
    Raiders -3.5 over Chargers
    Bengals over Cowboys
    Eagles -3 over Lions (Essay)

    Essay coming later

    • Galea Minor

      Ok back to the essay.

      No one does rock bottom like the Lions. 0-16 is a shining example, even the Browns didn’t do that. Now, despite being a not-all-that-terrible-on-its-face 1-3, the Lions are completely dead in the water. GOP leadership has more faith in the Trump campaign than Lions fans have in Caldwell. No one on the defense is healthy. They might actually be healthy, but faking injury to play. That’s the new story for this week: DeAndre Levy has been cleared by team doctors, but not his own doctors, so people suspect he’s just malingering to avoid taking the field for Detroit. The talk radio conversation on this topic is not whether he is or isn’t hurt. No, the question is, assuming he is malingering, can you blame him?

      Polls are showing “no, you can’t” with a slight lead.

      At this point, the Lions have to fire Caldwell simply because there will be absolutely no fan interest until they do. Both coordinators are popular, and elevating one to the head job would pique some fans’ curiosities. Teryl Austin seems the obvious choice, since they’ve worried he might leave for a HC job soon anyway.

      The Lions always take way too long to make this decision, but I suspect lopsided losses to the Eagles and Rams will push them over the edge.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Ark +14
    ECU +18.5
    Toledo -17
    TCU -28.5
    Patriots -10

    Bengals pk

    The Cowboys have to crash back to reality at some point, right? Maybe Dak Prescott really is a star, as evidenced by the fact the Browns didn’t draft him. But I see a Bengals defense that’s pissed off and playing well having a chance to dictate this game. The Bengals are having some troubles offensively without Eifert, Sanu, Jones and Hue, but they still have AJ Green. They still have a really good roster and a chance to move past a little September slump here. I don’t expect it to be easy, but I do expect the better team to win.

  • CLEinMSP

    Auburn -3
    Houston -17
    Stanford -7.5
    Bengals PK
    Arkansas +14 (All Play)
    UNC -2.5 (Essay)

    Can’t seem to get in any type of rhythm with my picks right now, so I’m going to ride a (probably stupid) homer (Trubisky) pick here. Been great watching Trubisky get better by the week, and Larry Fedora has a fun offense to watch. Mitch has plenty of weapons to work with (my favorites being Logan and Howard), so this just comes down to whether the Tar Heels can get some key stops and/or turnovers during the game. VA Tech has been better than expected, and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. That said, it feels like something special might be brewing down in Chapel Hill as they’ve pulled off some crazy wins at the end of games. I think they find a way at home today and win by a TD.

  • ***Tennessee +7 over Texas A&M***

    I don’t think this has ever happened before but somehow the Executive Committee completely failed to consider this game in its All Play deliberations. Seems it would have been a better choice than Bama/Arkansas. Apologies to those who agree.

    Anyway, it’s clear from this line and the fact that 59% of the action is on A&M that folks are expecting the bottom to drop out for Tennessee after three close calls against some seemingly not so great teams. But sometimes surviving those close calls can help a team grow and come to think it can’t be beat. And I really like Tennessee’s senior QB Josh Dobbs (who has completely balled out in the last 2 weeks’ comebacks against Florida and Georgia). This line seems like an overreaction. And A&M is banged up in some key spots, with their star pass rusher and potential #1 overall pick Myles Garrett having sat out last week. Plus, Tennessee’s mascot is a dog, and my family and I are just about to head out the door to pick up the two new puppies we adopted (Cerberus and Luna) so I will just make it a dog-themed weekend. Go Vols.

    Other votes:

    Northern Illinois +19 over Western Michigan (My wife is crazy and made Northern Illinois her essay. If it loses, I can blame her, so this is a win-win for me either way).

    Oklahoma -10 over Texas

    Arkansas +14 over Alabama

    Browns +10 over Patriots

    Will be back at some point when I figure out another NFL game to vote on. Happy weekend, all.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Welcome to Cerberus and Luna! Love you Frownie. I would have expected Zuul and Vinz Clortho.

    • clayII

      aye homie, you going to do a Browns game this year?

      • Yes, still haven’t figured out when, but we’ll definitely come up for at least one. Will holler!

  • John

    Friday night action (that’s what SHE said)

    New Mexico +17 to Boise State

    • John

      ^^^ so something weird happened and that pick JUST posted, but luckily it was captured in the spreadsheet. Either way- it was a loser. blah.

      Saturday picks

      All-play- Arkansas +14 to Alabama
      Washington -8 to Oregon

      • John

        Sunday picks
        Lions +2 over the Eagles
        Cowboys Pick’em over Bengals
        ***Essay*** Bears +4.5 over the Colts

        • John

          Essay
          I prefer the current lineup to the week 1 lineup.
          Hoyer, Royal, Howard, and Z Miller > Cutler, White, Langford, and blocking TE

          the Bears are on their biggest winning streak in 2 years…with 1. 1 victory.

          But have you seeeeen the O line for the Colts.
          they have more holes than the Kim K thievery story.

          ok. so Bears D, and Jordan Howard.
          the Bears finally score more than 17 points. like 21. 21 points.

          actually- 20. Barth will miss an extra point.

          #FreeRobbieGould

  • HitTheHorns

    1) Alabama -14
    2) NC State -2
    3) Kent St -1.5

    • Hey look I don’t mean to be a hardass but you can’t pick the same team twice in one week.

      • HitTheHorns

        If I type directly into this form instead of copy/pasting from a word doc, it always does that. Supposed to read Bama, NC St, Kent St.

    • HitTheHorns

      4) NYJ +7

      5) NYG +7.5

      6) Browns +10 *Essay*

      Man those Indians games gave me life. Just a joy to watch. 82% on NE seems a tad ridiculous, so Browns win at 1, Indians close out at 4, and The Miz and Dolph Ziggler steal the show in the battle of Cleveland/career vs. champion match tonight at WWE No Mercy. Hue has gotten Kessler to look prepared except for opening drive vs. Miami, which I didn’t think was possible. Maybe these guys that are lining up with Tom Brady for the first time will feel a little extra pressure to perform.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Colts -4.5
    Broncos -6
    Bills +2.5
    Nc state +2
    Arkansas +14
    Essay Unc -2.5
    I love this team. Trubisky is the real deal. He has legit weapons surrounding him and the defense is steadily improving. I really believe they can beat Clemson in the ACC championship. Va tech just doesn’t have the weapons to keep up. I see unc winning by double digits. However I did have Carolina as my pick of the year last year.

  • Hawkaholic

    Penn State +1.5 vs. Maryland
    ASU +10 vs. UCLA
    Auburn -3 vs. Miss St
    Cowboys PK vs. Cincy
    AP: Alabama -14 vs. Arkansas Could go either way with this one, I happened to be in Alabama this week so I am going to go that direction. Plus Beilema, while having a hot wife, remains a doucher

    *******POTY********
    Pats -10 vs. Browns

    Tom Brady ladies and gentlemen….is back. The Browns have played the Pats tough the last couple of times they have faced off, nearly winning the game but Tom Brady happened and the Pats scored 2 touchdowns in the last 61 seconds. Brady is 5-1 against the Browns but they will not be taking this game lightly. Finally accepting his sentence and putting deflategate behind him Brady is going to be out for blood channeling his rage taking it out on the rest of the NFL. Granted the Pats are far from healthy but when you have Brady and Belichick what else do you really need. Well those two and Scott Chandler, a terrific tight end out of the University of Iowa, the guy is average a TD a game this year, just incredible. The Pats went 3-1 ATS the spread in Brady’s absence, the Browns are 2-10 in their last 10 games. Another thing going for the Patriots is that they lost last week, they are unreal coming off a loss plus the Browns are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and are also pretty banged up, and have a QB not named Tom Brady.

    • all set on the form re: arkansas submit. youll be credited w bama pick shown here in comments.

    • well done!
      first ever 11 point week in cheddar history!

  • CLEVTA

    1. BYU +6
    2. Bills +2
    3. Jets +7
    4. Lions +3
    5. Arkansas +14
    6. NC St -2 (essay): there sure is a lot of faith in an Irish team that lost outright as a 28 pt favorite at home to a piss poor Duke team. Or the same Irish team that lost at a mediocre Texas team. NC State isn’t a juggernaut but they certainly are better than a Duke team that lost at home to pitiful Virginia and just as good as Texas. For some reason everyone thinks they deserve to be favored on the road here? They are a bottom 10 defense in the country just based on the eye test. They are 91st in defensive yards per play. I love Kizer so I know that offense will score. But the Irish has virtually nothing to play for at this point so I don’t see any motivation angle. Public has been pounding the Irish (apparently so has cheddar with a current 9-0 Irish advantage) while the line has dropped from ND opening as the favorite to NC State now favored by a full FG. In the last 7 games involving the Irish where the spread has been 4 points or less either way, ND has only won 1 game outright and is 1-6 ats.

  • *Essay*
    There is a difference between good crazy and bad crazy. The line is simultaneously fine and fuzzy. Advising people to find happiness in a prime-cut of beef? Bad crazy. Being known for saying “swing your sword”? Bad crazy. Cash bonuses for hurting opposing players? Bad crazy. Sometimes, it’s obvious.
    Using metaphors about baking fish cakes? Huh. Breakfast speeches about Batman? Hm. Creating a rivalry out of thin air with a school 1,200 miles away? Huh.
    Then I saw Diaco’s three phase plan for the year – while I can infer this season isn’t going exactly to spec – this tips the scale into generally positive lunacy.
    1. “Somebody better tell them!” – referring to Navy and Houston. Spoiler alert. Nobody told them.
    2. “All the way up!” – as in, where UConn’s football program is going. No better place to start than after two consecutive losses.
    3. The “no limit phase” – something about Boston and buses and Chestnut Hill. Idk.
    UConn has had a few extra days since they played an exceptionally bad game last Thursday, which I think has made this line a little wonky. I’ve seen what Cinci isn’t capable of.
    Home dawg UConn +3

    All Play: Arkansas +14 vs. Alabama
    Texas Tech +7.5 vs. Kansas State
    Western Michigan -18 vs. Northern Illinois
    Washington -8 vs. Oregon
    Eagles -3 vs. Lions

  • Nick

    Kent St -1.5 vs Buffalo
    PSU +1.5 vs Maryland
    Rutgers +27.5 vs Michigan
    Bengals pk at Cowboys…per AtoZ.
    AP: Arkansas +14 vs Alabama
    EP: Ball State +12.5 at CMU
    It should be noted that I can’t name a single player on either of these teams, but I reviewed their W-L records on Google, and have pulled from my memory of business dealings in Muncie, and Central Michigan, to vibe this game and predict the outcome. When I look at Ball State, I see a team that can put up points. Central seems to be an equally OK team, having played some better opponents, but they’ve been gashed for 49 pts in each of the last two games. Ball State’s road record is 2-1 this year, with the loss coming at Indiana by 10 pts, and wins in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome vs Georgia State, and in Boca vs Florida Atlantic. Atlanta, Boca, and now onto Mount Pleasant, no sweat, they are probably looking forward to playing in a familiar conference stadium. The freaks of Western Michigan beat CMU 49-10 last week in this stadium. Feels like a tough bounce back game for the players and fans, so the Ball state team rolls.

  • zarathustra

    For the all-play I’ll take the points and in the NFL I will take the Jim Schwartz defense. I put very little thought into these picks. Conversely, for my remaining picks I applied entirely too much thought. I like Syracuse, Oklahoma, Kent, Hawaii, Wazzu, Notre Dame, Iowa and Miami (Oh). That’s eight that I like pretty equally but only four spots left so I shall pick at random and hope for the best.

    Syracuse over Wake Forest

    The Bowling Green coach bowl. If you are asking me whose teams I liked better at BG the answer is Dave Clawson and it isn’t close. In thinking about this game it occurred to me how much must Clawson hate Babers. He builds a program based a great defense and playing complimentary football then this fucking Baylor asshole shoes up with spread it out tempo bullshit that destroys its own defense by keeping it on the field too much. And that Baylor asshole had more success than he did.
    Though I may prefer Clawson’s style I’m afraid Dino is the smarter man. Clawson jumped ship for Wake because it was the ACC but there is a very small probability that Wake could ever compete in the ACC even with a very good coach. Bottom tier of conference, smaller school, and several teams in your own damn state that are perennially better than you. I like the guy but my guess is he’s not going to make it there. I’ve watched them a bit starting last year. The defense is as good as could be possible for a lower-tier Power 5 team and overall they are a smart, tough, and disciplined team, but the offense is terrible. Dino Babers ended up at a better program that has had at least some marginal success in the past and is a perfect fit for his style of play. Moreover, he inherited a promising qb. The Orange already went to UCONN and won. I think ‘Cuse gets out on top and Wake won’t be able to keep up.

    Wazzu over Stanford

    I’m pretty sure I essayed Wazzu against Stanford last year. I know I had it in real life both with the points and money line. I had bigger wins last year but I think this was the game I have the best memory of. It is admittedly a foolish reason for a wager but I’ll be damned if I’m going to sit it out this year with another chance for it to happen. I expected Stanford to be down and had this one circled to start the year as a potential POTY, but I don’t like that it’s Stanford coming off a national embarrassment so alas just a one-pointer.

    Miami over Akron

    I really like everything I hear about what they might be building in Miami. They hang with everyone and keep coming back. That’s a tough-minded team. They are playing a talented but undisciplined team with a shitty defense and missing its starting qb. I think the redhawks are hungry for their first win and they his is a great spot for an upset.

    Oklahoma over Texas***

    I was at the gym this morning and it occurred to me that the saying “fake it ’til you make it” while trite should not be so easily dismissed as such for there is perhaps some truth hiding there. {oh boy….} I suppose it shouldn’t be too surprising that people who descend upon a space primarily for the purpose of making themselves look different might be lacking in confidence, but nevertheless it struck me in a new way today and it made me feel a little sad. Everyone–not just those at the gym of course–seems so desperate for confidence yet so few seem to truly have it. This is of course because confidence is all illusion. It is a story we tell ourselves to prime ourselves to act a certain way to signal competence to others. There is no other way to make it but to fake it. It is play-acting.
    {this is going to go on forever isn’t it?}
    Nevertheless, the angle by which you approach this conjecture is vital. It seems to me that the majority of people, though for a variety of reasons, simply reject the idea because faking confidence is not authentic and certainly not comfortable. Of those that pursue the fake-it strategy there are in my estimation a few approaches. The first one never–or at least rarely–forgets that they are faking it. While there is the risk of getting caught up in silly morality and feeling guilty about all the faking, if you can let go of that kind of silliness you can maybe find some tranquility in at least knowing the truth that confidence is pure imagination. The next group are the people who faked it so well that they fooled themselves into thinking they made it. Yes, these people can be huge assholes. They definitely don’t deserve pity or anything, but that is some heavy karma and probably a bad trip to get lost in so they really could use our compassion. Worst still are those that just subconsciously found their confidence in reaction to some deep insecurity. These people are just that much more lost and for whom the neuroses are that much more difficult to work through.
    {omg….what does this have to do with football?}
    So the perspective from which one projects confidence is maybe more important than the outward manifestation of it. This is all a convoluted way of saying I like Baker Mayfield in this spot. Yes, he has a lot of confidence, but I he was a walk-on at Texas Tech and they decided they didn’t want him so I think he has stared coldly at failure his isn’t the confidence of the insecure asshole unconsciously compensating for his inadequacy, but that of the young man who made the conscious decision to fake it until he makes it. That his confidence is as manufactured as everyone else’s, but it perhaps originates from a healthier place than most and therefore is more resilient to the various pitfalls of playing this confidence game. Then again, I know pretty much nothing about the kid so maybe not.{dear god, is it finally over?}
    Either way I like Stoops with revenge and the fact that TCU came back late last week to give them a healthy scare to keep fresh in the back of their minds all week.
    I really like Charlie Strong. Before it dissolved there was nothing this degenerate loved more than wagering on Big East football. {oh my god, its not over. He is still carrying on.} No way someone could follow that league and not have a lot respect for that guy. I thought he would succeed at Texas. That most definitely will not be happening now. It’s already over. I now question whether he could succeed there anyway, but I’m certain he was never really given a fair chance. From day there was a vocal contingent of boosters who expressed dissatisfaction with the hire–can’t remember who but one of them thought he was best qualified to be the db coach. There is no way to succeed in rebuilding a program if the powers-that-be have a distorted view of where the program is to begin with and especially so when influential voices aren’t even on board to begin with. His coaching buddy going all the way back Florida was just demoted, which may indeed have been the correct call, but more importantly in mind is who made the decision. From the little bit I’ve read I get the feeling that it wasn’t the head coach. It’s over. Texas could win out and it ain’t saving his job. {this guy must just love to hear himself talk.}
    College and pros are very different but as a browns fan I feel well acquainted with what happens when a team’s season is over and everyone knows the coach is getting canned.
    I don’t usually like laying this many points, especially in a rivalry game, but its hard for me to not see boomer rolling them in this one.
    {Finally!}

  • mmmmsnouts

    Thursday night was a fiasco. Memphis didn’t show up to play until the third quarter, then let PJ Walker complete the same sideline out pass about 40 times to make sure Temple got the backdoor cover. Meanwhile WKU fell down 25 points, only to rally all the way back within 3 thanks to the usual god-awful Skip Holtz game management, which I banked on when I laid the 2.5 points. Then on the first play of their potential game-winning, game-covering drive, Mike White gets annihilated on a blitz and fumbles.

    It threw me for a loop and I hope it doesn’t bleed into this weekend’s picks. That would be typical to follow up a big 10-pointer last week with a 0 or 1.

    Memphis -10 vs. Temple (L)
    Notre Dame +2.5 vs. NC State (I know this is a public pick, but NC State’s non-conference schedules are pathetic and they always wilt at the first sign of even a semi-competent team)
    Florida State +3 vs. Miami
    Broncos -6 vs. Falcons

    ALL PLAY: Alabama -14 vs. Arkansas

    ESSAY: Western Kentucky -2.5 vs. Louisiana Tech (L)

  • Capitalgg

    [All-play] Alabama -14 v. Arkansas: Bert gets too much credit for being a good coach even though he seemingly never actually wins a big game.
    1. Bengals pk @ Cowboys: Cincy has more to play for, has had a longer break, hasn’t had a week of hype about the arrival of rookies playing in the most important positions.
    2. Titans +3.5 @ Dolphins: Playing on the supposition that in a game involving 2 fairly evenly matched teams, the 1 that didn’t spend the week worrying about their homes and families being destroyed by a natural disaster will be more focused.
    3. Pitt -6 v. Georgia Tech: Better team, at home, straight [fire emoji] throwback uniforms. Things Pitt has going for them this week.
    4. Bills +2.5 @ Rams: Looks like a good week for road underdogs in the NFL

    The key to winning Cheddar Bay has always been, hit your essays. Through 5 weeks, I’ve not exactly taken that advise hitting on a paltry 2 essays and spending my POTY on an FSU team that got absolutely boat-raced and throwing 3s on the board each of the last 3 weeks. This week I absolutely need to right the ship or I’ll be out of this competition before it really even gets rolling.

    In previous years, I considered myself more of a college football expert and I had the record to more-or-less back me up. This year, I’ve been absolutely horrendous picking college games, but pretty good playing the NFL games I really like (overall, I’ve still not been very good). So to get this turned around, I’m back to playing an NFL game for my essay taking DA BEARS! +4.5 on the road at Indianapolis where the roof should be open on Sunday.

    The Colts this week will become the first team in NFL history to travel to London and play the following week rather than have a bye. They chose this and ultimately, it will not matter. What matters is the Colts have a horrendous defense (a statement that has really been true for approximately the franchise’s entire existence in Nap town — it’s amazing what a franchise can get away with when Peyton Manning in his prime is the QB). They got themselves behind big time last week against and Andrew Luck did his best to bring them back. That kid is hiding a lot of flaws in the construction of that franchise.

    Anyway, the Bears come in off their first win of the season last week as they slipped by division rival Detroit. The big thing that is different for the Bears is starting QB Jay Cutler is hurt, so the winningest QB in expansion-Browns era, Brian Hoyer has taken over the team has responded to Hoyer’s leadership. The kicking game remains a bit of an issue as Connor Barth has not been as reliable as long-time K Robbie Gould.

    But this game projects out to be a FG game at worst for Chicago and they are catching almost 5, so I like the Bears here to, as they say on the north side, “fly the W”.

    Other Considerations:
    Buffalo +1.5 v. Kent St.
    Florida St. +3 @ Miami
    Ohio St. -29 v. Indiana
    Houston -17 @ Navy
    BYU +6 @ Michigan St.
    Cincinnati -3 @ Connecticut
    Army +4 @ Duke
    San Diego St. -14 v. UNLV

  • Jmacdaddio

    Alabama -14 Roll Tide
    Georgia Tech +6
    Notre Dame +2 (Essay)
    Nevada -9
    Cowboys PK
    Broncos -6

    Back to Cheddar reality, with a crappy performance last week. Can it get worse? Yes, but not by much. This week Notre Dame travels to Raleigh, NC, which isn’t underwater yet. It looks as if the game will go on, and then hopefully everyone gets to higher ground. NC State has a decent record courtesy of playing a few cupcakes, including my alma mater. Notre Dame isn’t having a season that will be immortalized in film, however they’ve at least played against decent competition. My guess is that Notre Dame goes in, takes care of business, and with 2 extra points, covers.

    What’s the Cheddar policy on postponements or cancellations due to weather? I’m hoping impacted players are permitted to enter replacement picks.

  • p_forever

    alabama -14 arkansas
    washington -8 oregon
    houston -17 navy***
    fsu +3 miami
    oklahoma -10 texas
    pittsburgh -7 jets

    the last couple weeks have been a bit of a rough patch for me. i’ve done my best with these picks to avoid my typical pitfalls – no ND pick, no cleveland pick, no picks against usc, michigan, or anyone else that i am incapable of being objective about. no cutesy picks either – sometimes low hanging fruit just is low hanging fruit, and there’s no need to complicate things. that pretty much explains my houston essay. if keenan reynolds couldn’t keep navy within 3 touchdowns of houston last year, how can navy possibly keep houston within 17 this year? houston is the hungriest team playing right now. to even have a shot at the playoffs, they need to win big every week. the only team that has come within 10 is oklahoma, and that was week 1. they also have a top 10 defense. could be a really long day for navy.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Texas A&M: Always look for reason to play favorite when over 4 pts and a matchup of two highly ranked teams. Numbers this high usually indicate a significant advantage and in this case, I feel the advantage is more a result of Tennessee being overrated than TAMU being some world beater outfit. The Vols have been overrated from the get go. Highly touted coming into the season, luck boxed their way through their first few games, with last week’s clown show the pinnacle. Luck runs out here. TAMU by DD.

  • Concierge

    Lions
    Alabama
    Kent State Play of the year
    Air Force
    Toledo
    SDSU

    I think Kent gets their first MAC win of the year this week at Buffalo. Last week Kent showed signs of life with Nick Holley at QB. The only thing Paul Haynes has been lacking since he has been at Kent has been offense. The defense is about is good as it gets in the MAC. I just don’t see how buffalo is going to score in this game. I was on BC vs Buffalo last week and that was an easy play. Kent’s D is similar to BC. Very stout against the run and have a terrific secondary. Buffalo has a Frosh QB who will struggle and the Dual threat of Edelman JR i think Kent gets the win in Buffalo.

  • at BC +16.5 clemson (loss. oh wait i failed to play this one!)
    aub -2.5 missy
    hou -17 at navy
    3. army +4 at duke
    2. at ark +14 bama
    4. at scar +7 uga
    marshall -10 at unt
    5. lsu -3 at fla
    at ulm -5 idaho
    hawaii +3.5 at sjsu
    1. at browns +10 pats
    6. at lions +3 eagles
    bucs +4? at panthers
    sheesh the browns have been as pleasant a surprise as an 0-4 team can be. throw out the eagles game and then theyre an insane taunting penalty plus 3 missed FGs from winning in baltimore, a missed xp-length fg from beating dolphins, and one manic turnover spree away from winning last week. importantly, they’re playing right along with their competition, actually outplaying them in all but two quarters in the last three games. the story and lines have been similar in all — browns have no chance, double digit dogs. except this week it’s more like two touchdowns allowing for the home field three points… and still as of fri nite 87% of the play is on the pats. it’s super that brady is back and we can get treated to a solid wall of his victimization at the hands of roger goodell for all of his mean rules-of-the-game enforcement. i mean, who the hell does goodell think he and the nfl are, the ruling body of the sport or something??? but lost in the brady hoopla will be that joe haden is playing the best i’ve seen from him in years and maybe ever. i think he actually trusts the guys he’s playing with and it’s freeing him to be finally the elite cornerback he’s been hyped to be all these years. im not going to go player by player but i have to say that every fucking waiver wire/practice squad pickup this front office has made thus far has been money. jamar taylor, stephen paea, corey lemonier (scroll to draft chatter section) (ahem,, also note ricky wagner, deandre hopkins, vance mcdonald, jamie collins takes.) boddy-calhoun.. all contributing. finally, hoodie secretly likes his teams to barf a game early so he can get their attention in practice moving forward. love the browns here.

    • drop lsu/florida; pick up hawaii.

  • RCLA

    It’s fucking theme week here at RCLA headquarters. Why? Because I don’t have any actual astute oberaervations about football! Yay!

    Home Dogs only this week. Read ’em and weep.

    UConn +3
    Miss St. +3
    PSU +1.5
    Lions +3
    Arkansas +14

    Essay: Oregon +8

    I was tempted to back off of this one, at least as my essay, since the line has leaked up to 9.5. But fuck that. This isn’t quite a “trap” game, but it’s something. Last week was the game this Washington program has been building toward and for since Pedersen arrived. They were at home. Stanford isn’t a team that plays well from behind. Things got a little out of hand. And Oregon hasn’t been covering all year. They aren’t even a “good” Oregon team. But the notion that Washington should just breeze into Eugene and win by multiple scores strikes me as getting a little ahead of itself. I’ll live with my 8 points and see how it goes.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    I discovered something interesting while doing my spreadsheet this week. Every NFL team that won last week covered the spread. I looked deeper and the trend was remarkably similar each week. In 63 games there were only 3 times when the spread was covered but the team lost. In contrast this past week 16/60 college games the underdog covered but still lost. That means it occurs 4x as often in college as it does in the pros. Why? Do college kids try harder even when they are destined to loose? Do professionals give up at the end of a game? Are all the NFL teams so equally crappy this year that you might as well flip a coin each week as pick who will win a game? Is it purely coincidence that these numbers came out so different and if I had tried a different college week sample would I have gotten different results? Is my sample size big enough? These are the kind of questions that plague an ammeter statistician. So I looked at the most basic of statistics, the 95% confidence interval-meaning that my results have a 95% chance of being within a certain range if the test were to be repeated with another sample of the same size. My results: An NFL team is likely to cover but not win 0.9%-13% of the time while a college team is likely 16-40% of the time. How does this translate into my weekly votes and how can I apply this information to the real world? That is the tricky part that I haven’t figured out. Given that the underdogs overall last week in college covered 55% of the time makes me want to continue voting for them. It makes it more fun anyway. Northern Illinois has not done well against the spread whilst WMU has beaten the spread the last 5 weeks in a row. Vegas statisticians loath 6 week trends, especially in college football, so I am guessing this line was set for NI to cover (but not win). I’ll take it. Plus I always enjoy their hurry up offense.

    My underdogs for the week

    Arkansas St + 8 win
    Bears +4.5
    Arkansas +14
    NI +19
    USC +4.5
    BGSU +11.5

    (Note: My spread sheet numbers do not follow the cheddar lines or the games that are voting eligible so my numbers may differ from some of yours. Also sometimes I realize that I have left a team off the list like this year it is New Mexico-so I will never vote for them)

    • CLEVTA

      I’d imagine a big part of why college teams cover but don’t win is purely a case of large numbers. NFL spreads are typically <8 pts so your odds are way higher to cover and win compared to many college spreads that are 30+ for example. I'd limit your research only in NCAA games in spreads <10 and see what it turns out

      • actovegin1armstrong

        TA, I am perplexed, that is either a brilliantly clever retort to the most uproariously funny Cheddar comment ever, or you kids are serious and while I am very proud of you for actually understanding agnes. I am sad that it is obvious that I need to put considerably more effort into this contest.

  • Matt Lawrence

    ND +2 @ NC State
    Akron -7.5 vs Miami OH
    UNC -2.5 vs Va Tech
    Raiders -3.5 vs Chargers
    Alabama -14 @ Arkansas (ALL PLAY)

    My “screw-it” essay play is OSU -29 vs Indiana. I know OSU has struggled through games against the Hoosiers in the past, but this is unlike any Buckeyes team I can remember witnessing. They fly all over the place on defense and have incredible weapons on offense. Plain and simple, the Buckeyes look like the most complete and dominant team in college football so far this year. While I give Indiana credit for beating Sparty on the road last week, they are not prepared for the beast that awaits them on Saturday.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    AP: Bama -14
    Essay: Steelers -7
    Philly -3
    Florida +3
    Panthers -2.5
    Washington -8

    I hate to say this as a Browns fan but I think the Steelers are on their way back to the super bowl this year. Their offense is unstoppable and I don’t think there is anyway the banged up Jets can hang. Last week Big Ben connected with 9 different receivers and this week the over/under on Fitz INT is 2.5…2.5!!! That would be the third week in a row with 3 or more picks. I think the Steelers have quite the advantage at the most important position on the field. Steelers run away with this one and I think Fitzpatrick loses his starting job. Man I hate routing with those fans and their damn terrible towels.

    • Lucy Lawrence

      Oops didn’t know they weren’t playing Fl/LSU game so I’ll take Miami in the place. Thanks

      Miami Fl -3

      • Lucy Lawrence

        Man I’m all messed up this week. Here are my final plays!

        1. All play: Bama
        2. Essay: Steelers -7
        3. Miami Fl -3
        4. Washington -8
        5. Philly -3
        6. UNC -2.5

    • hey lucy, the cheddar line on the panthers is -4.5. !! pretty big diff, let us know if you want to change that pick, thanks!

  • jdoepke

    New Mexico +17 for one cheddar point. More to follow.

    • jdoepke

      In need of a big week. Here we go…

      New Mexico +17
      Arkansas +14 (AP)
      Rutgers +27.5
      Lions +3
      Navy +17

      Essay:
      VaTech +2.5

      This line stinks. 73% of bets for Tar Heels, yet line is down to 1.5 and about 50% of money on Hokies. I’m a little nervous on this one but I believe VaTech is the right side. The total is down 6 points which I’m sure is hurricane related but that’s usually a good sign for the underdog. Tar Heels win in a close one 28-27.

  • pheasantpants

    Clemson -17
    Maryland -1.5
    Philadelphia -3

    • pheasantpants

      TAMU -7
      AP: Arkansas +14

      • pheasantpants

        Houston Cougars -17

        Philly upgraded to essay status

        • pheasantpants

          a 1-3-1 college slate and here I am hoping my NFL essay gets me out of the fire again. True to form, yet another NFC North and Lions-related essay. Think I am now 0-2 when I essay a Lions game, because the spreads always suck me in. Today, it’s a far-too-low seeming Eagles -3 at Ford Field. This line has shifted only slightly in Philly’s favor, but they have the big public money. Eagles have been 3-0-0 ATS, with the Lions 1-3-0.

          One of the problems with betting the Lions is their propensity to make a late charge – something which has burned me twice already. But I think the ultra-efficient Carson Wentz will carve up a very depleted Lions defense. And the Lions are running out of offensive weapons – the loss of Ameer Abdullah resulted in a Lions run game that gained 66 yards on 18 carries against a bad Bears team.

          But I think this is the bottom line for me: 28/36, 302, 2/0 – Brian Hoyer’s stat line last week against Detroit. Probably going to be a long day for that Lions defense against a much better QB. I like Philly laying the points.

  • Brian

    Clemson -17
    Notre Dame +2
    Houston -17
    Michigan -27.5
    Alabama-14
    New England -10 ***ESSAY***

    As if the Browns season wasnt already bad enough with 2 QB’s going down, Josh Gordon being an absolute failure, and the 2 best rookies on the team not playing…They now get to face the New England Patriots, with Tom Brady coming back from a suspension. This has bad news written all over it. I think the patriots win by 4 touchdowns this weekend and this game will be over before halftime. With all due respect to Hue Jackson, because he is the coach I wanted, he oughta just wave the white flag before the game starts. Thank god that there will be an indians game later that afternoon because this will be a complete shit show. Giving the browns 10 is not enough and will not ever be enough. And with that i say GO TRIBE!!! Sweep City

  • Peter Markos

    Michigan -27.5 over Rutgers. Harbaugh has to keep up. He might not throw the shut out or put up 58 points, but he will certainly try. Who at Rutgers thought it was a good idea to schedule OSU and UM back to back. Two undefeated teams in the Big Game will be huge.
    Alabama -14. Arkansas has not done enough to make me go with them. Im not sure anybody in t he SEC will beat the Tide. “If they were in the BIG 10 they would have 3 losses.”
    Notre Dame +2 over NCST ND has taken their lumps. Battle tested, NCST has beaten the Sisters of the Really Poor and lost to ECU. These guys are not the sharp end of the ACC.
    Packers -7 over NYG. Better QB, better team. The Vikings made the Giants look real bad. Maybe the Vikes are real good.
    Vikings -6 over HOU The Vikes defense will carry them very far. If the offense can stay healthy, the O line is beat up, the NFC title game is their destiny. Sam Bradford with a ring. Crazy talk months ago.
    PITT -7 over NYJ Ben now has all of his weapons. Fitz has help but gets a one year contract for a reason.
    Hillary -21 over Trumpster Fire. Not everybody watches Fox news.

  • LittleBallofHate

    Rest of the Picks
    ND +2; Sparty -6, Michigan -27.5
    ESSAY PICK … AND PICK OF THE YEAR
    New England (-10) at Browns
    I have to give the Browns some credit. With the exception of the first game of the year they have been competitive and somewhat entertaining. Kessler has looked a hell of a lot better than he did during the preseason, Crowell is running a lot better and there are threads of what looks like an actual plan.
    However, this week Hoody returns to Lake Erie and Tom Brady makes his long-awaited return. And the Pats are coming off being shut out against a Rex Ryan team which means Robert Kraft had to find someone in Boston who would not cause might alarm if they had gone missing so Hoody could do a human sacrifice and eat that person’s heart.
    New England is 12-3 against the spread in Week 5 games and has covered both times as a double digit favorite, including 2007 against the Browns. The Browns are 5-7 as Week 5 underdogs since 1999 and the largest spread they have covered in this week is 7.
    It might be competitive for awhile, but Pats will win by double digits.

  • Chris Schroeder

    -17 Houston @ Navy
    -13.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
    -17 Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
    -10 New England @ Cleveland Browns
    All Play: +14 Arkansas vs. Alabama

    Essay: -27.5 Michigan @ Rutgers
    Location: Piscataway, New Jersey
    Stadium: High Point Solution Stadium
    Time: 7:00 PM EST
    Broadcast: ESPN2
    Weather: 65 Cloudy SE 1 mph 25% Rain
    Mascot: Biff the Wolverine vs. Scarlet Knight
    Fun Fact: This game will be played at the home of what we call modern college football. The Rutgers football program has played in 1,318 games to date.
    The Game: The Michigan Wolverines are looking for revenge. The last time they made the trip to Piscataway they fell to the mighty Scarlet Knights 26-24. The stadium will be at sellout status and the biggest excitement will be Rutgers unveiling their new black unis. Another top ten team will put a licking on the Knights. The other two top ten teams to match up with the Knights have out scored them 106-13. The only aspect of the game that makes me nervous is how long the rain will stick around. Praying it doesn’t cause a sloppy game on the Wolverine side. Go Blue and chasing in the Chedda Points.

  • cwonder23

    Penn State +1.5 vs Maryland
    Indiana +29 @ OSU
    Norte Dame +2 @ NC State
    Lions +3 vs Eagles
    All Play: Bama -14 @ Arkansas
    Essay: Broncos -6 vs Falcons
    The Falcons offense is off to a fantastic start but this week they come back to earth when facing an historically good and deep Broncos defense. Aqua Talib will be shadowing Julio Jones all day and I expect him to hold him in check (in Julio terms of course). Trevor Siemian is expected to play and, frankly, this Falcons defense is dreadful. Denver 28 – Falcons 14. I hope all of you are tuning into the Division Series this weekend. I will be rooting on the Cubs both at home tonight and in Wrigley Field on Saturday. Go Cubs!

  • GRRustlers

    Week 6 Picks

    Browsing the web with my daughter who turns six tomorrow and looking at some Halloween costumes we came across the USC song girls. So…now I have a bet with my daughter that if the Buffs win she can get it and if the Buffs lose she can get it. I am bad at gambling…let’s stick with a PAC12 theme this week.

    Cal (-13.5) over Oregon State – The main thought I had watching Colorado run wild over Oregon State was that the Beavers are Idaho level bad. Shockingly bad. Cal should easily score 50.

    Utah (-9.5) over Arizona – I expect a bounce back this week from Utah after giving one away last week.

    Oregon (+8) over Washington – Prove it Washington…because Colorado will be waiting for you in San Francisco in December.

    Stanford (-7.5) over Washington State – Theory 345 of CFB: The second anyone feels good about Mike Leach he will disappoint you.

    AP – Alabama (-14) over Arkansas

    Essay Pick

    I think I miscalculated last week. I’m still trying to figure out the Panthers. Since they are 1-3 now do they have to trade Andy Lee since a punter is a luxury? Does Cam Newton know he only gets one brain? Was Josh Norman really that important? I’m going to avoid the Panthers for a little bit and go back to the reason I liked them in the first place last week.

    The Vikings are good.

    I get really angry about the sleeves of Sam Bradford but if he keeps making the occasional play and takes care of the football they are going to be in really good shape the rest of the way.

    The other fun part will be to watch the buyer remorse build on Brock Osweiler. Talk about an overreaction to a truly awful game by Hoyer. You gave that guy how much? It did not concern you that Elway was not all that interested? Why are you not the Oilers wearing the old baby blues rocking that truly awful fight song that made my blood boil as a kid?

    Vikings (-6) over Texans

    • actovegin1armstrong

      GRR, that is a good idea, I should search the magical online. I took my daughter to the local costume shop so we could get our Halloween gear. She easily found the Fire Fighter uniform she wanted, but they were all out of clown costumes, so I am still looking.

  • zizzer13

    Heading up to our neighbors to the north this weekend – are we sure we can’t pick CFL games?

    I’m not feeling particularly confident in any of these picks this week… my charge up the leaderboard probably comes to a screeching halt with this crap.
    Maryland -1.5 over Penn State
    Washington -8 over Oregon
    Stanford -7.5 over Washington State
    Steelers -7 over Jets
    Alabama -14 over Arkansas (AP)

    Going to revisit my asshole theory once more for this week’s essay. I was a little surprised with how bad the Buckeyes thrashed Rutgers last week, but it’s lucky for me that the Scarlet Knights get Michigan right after, and especially after Michigan had to fight tooth and nail to get a win (but not a cover) against Wisconsin.

    Jim Harbaugh’s such a complete child that I can see him meeting with his coaching staff, hearing that the Buckeyes won by 58, and demanding of his team that they win by 59 in a pathetic attempt at one-upmanship, because that’s really about the only sort of leverage he has against Urban Meyer at this point. So yes, Michigan to beat Rutgers, and by a lot – far more than the not-quite-four-touchdowns that Vegas is giving us this week.

    Michigan -27.5 over Rutgers

  • LittleBallofHate

    Early-week picks: Arizona -4 and Alabama -14 (Saban is going to want to run it up on Bielema)
    Will do the rest of the picks tomorrow

  • thatsfine

    Temple +10

    • thatsfine

      By the way, I am eagerly anticipating the MiamiOh vs. Akron line. And I know that, on this board, I am not the only person. That brings me joy.

  • mmmmsnouts

    Picks for tonight, need some more time on the rest of them.

    Memphis -10 vs. Temple

    ESSAY: Western Kentucky -2.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

    Neither of these teams are what they were last year. In this case, though, it means WKU is merely pretty good while Louisiana Tech isn’t. The Toppers aren’t crazy explosive this season but they’ve had some bad turnover luck and they can actually play a little bit of defense, unlike Louisiana Tech who checks in at 118th in Defensive S&P+. Love the potential for Western Kentucky to get back on track a little bit, love paying less than a field goal, love picking against Skip Holtz. Also love the over, if you want to make even more money on this game.

  • Troy Bunting

    Essay
    **Washington -8***
    Flipping sides as I had Stanford picked to beat the huskies last week. Oregon is on a 3 week skid, including losses to Wash St. and Colorado, which continues their year over year decline under the Helfrich regime. Oregon just isn’t the team they used to be. Oregon rarely has a stifling defense and relies on winning shoot outs. Huskies stepped up in a big way last week against Stanford. Speed on both sides of the ball was known coming in, but the ability to shut down the Stanford offense and limit McCaffrey was pretty impressive. For this week i’m a believer.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Almost took Washington for my essay too. I am read to flush Helfrich down the Shurmur, but I just could not pull the lever.

  • Chris P.

    Maryland -1.5
    Tennessee +7 huh?
    Oregon +8 prove it, huskies.
    Alabama -14
    Steelers -7

    So, each week it’s important to look for the very worst possible games that no one gives a crap about and check if something doesn’t pass the sniff test. Hmm… Patriots with Tom Brady only giving the Browns 10? Hmm… maybe people know something I don’t because… nevermind… running away… what else looks weird? FAU giving anyone 15, I suppose.. Houston only giving Navy 17.5… but Navy is weird… afraid to touch them….

    HOLY SHIT GEORGIA STATE IS GIVING SOMEONE 10????

    Wow. I know Texas State blows, but they can move the ball. They can’t stop anyone, but Georgia State can’t move the ball anyway. Wow… it’s being played in the Georgia Dome. They’re gonna pack 875 in that 60,000 seat place, so it’s not like they’re gonna feed off atmosphere. I don’t get it. Georgia State threatened Wisconsin, beat em by 2 in the turnover department, and still lost… but Wisconsin really could be forgiven for not giving a crap when they’re in the midst of playing four top 10 teams in six games. Then they hold App St scoreless for a half hour before dropping it by 14. That’s the highlights of their season.

    Texas State beat Solich, lost a pair to Arkansas and Houston…. They’re bad… but… I don’t get it. See: “The Bowling Green Rule” from last week. The worst teams in football aren’t allowed to give anyone two scores.

    Texas State +10

  • actovegin1armstrong

    ****Texans +6****
    The Texans and the Vikings are both somewhere South of mediocre. The difference between these two teams is that the Vikings have won the rather nebulous turnover battle thus far this year, that does not make them 6 points better than the Texans. It is difficult to predict which way the ball shall bounce this week. Next time you are playing basketball and about to try your best ankle breaking crossover move use a football and see how well it goes. Bradford may be a better retread than Rottweiler, (I do love those retread quarterbacks), but Houston has a better defense than Minnesota. I will certainly take the generous gift of points, the superior defense and hope that the slightly better retread shall toss one to the wrong team.
    The NFL keeps getting curiouser and curiouser. How did the Vikings and Eagles end up as the only two undefeated teams? “On one hand change brings opportunity. On the other hand change can be confusing. And on the other hand I just do not know.” Oscar Wilde
    OSU -29
    Oklahoma -10
    Georgia State -10
    Tx A&M -7
    AP Alabama -14

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Arkansas st +8. I just can’t pass up a Wednesday game when I have to work overnight.

    • One comment on the Cheddar Bay thread so far this week and it’s my wife, who couldn’t resist some Wednesday night Sun Belt action.

      I have no complaints, folks. It almost pains me to admit.

    • I can’t remember the last Cheddar Bay game night where there was only a single voter who participated. And tonight it’s my wife, who couldn’t resist some Wednesday Sun Belt action. I couldn’t be any prouder.

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