Cheddar Playoffs week two.

More domination from FlyHighCharlieFrye last week as he stayed on top with a 4-1 ATS pick rate.  That’s 59% ATS for the season, good; 14-4-1 (76%) on essays, great; and 11-1-1 on essays since October — INSANE.

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Below are this week’s lines.  Email to Frowns and me by 3:35PM Saturday.

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  • here’s how things shook out over the weekend.
    (dont be off put by the win-loss or the pink shading on steelers/broncos ,,, havent built push logic into the playoff spreadsheet.)

  • 6 essays on the Chiefs/Pats game (split 3-3), 2 Broncos essays, 1 Cards, and 1 Steelers. Pats, Cards, Seahawks, and Broncos were the Cheddar Bay favorites, but each, remarkably, only at a 6-4 ratio.

    If I had to pick them I’d go Chiefs, Packers***, Panthers, Steelers. I really like the Packers tonight. They had no reason at all to play in their last 2 regular season games and wind up with anything but a first round matchup with Washington. They’re as healthy today as they’ve been all season, finally with all their offensive line starters back. They also have the deepest defensive backfield in the league and an underrated pass rush. Rodgers is probably the best quarterback in the league and Arians and Palmer still have zero playoff wins between them. Don’t quite understand why everyone is crowning Arizona here but I’m admittedly biased in favor of the team without an owner.

  • Here is a handy look at everyone’s picks.

    • Just FYI, in case that is in the Spreadsheet you are totaling points off of… It looks like you got Pats down twice for me as a regular pick and essay pick – missing the Broncos regular pick.

      • i thank you. i’m sure i wouldve caught but.. well thanks. 🙂

        • I mean I did contemplate waiting to see if the Pats won or not to say anything… but as you said you would have caught anyways 🙂

  • thatsfine

    Chiefs +5 essay
    Packers +7
    Broncos -7
    Seahawks +2.5

    You can’t really hang too much on the Chiefs win last week, considering Brian Hoyer put forth the worst playoff performance by a QB I can ever recall seeing. But, they flat out dominated every phase of the game. The defense’s ability to create turnovers isn’t just due to chance, and neither is the offense’s ability to avoid them.

  • AmplifiedEsq.

    1) Patriots -5 *ESSAY*
    2) Cardinals -7
    3) Panthers -2.5
    4) Broncos -7

    Essay: Patriots -5
    There’s no denying that KC is playing some of the best football of anyone right now. They certainly had one of the more impressive performances last week. I just think this is the time that their big run comes to an end.

    I see a lot of concern about Gronk’s injury, there’s even some question as to just how healthy Brady is in regard to his ankle injury. With Belichick controlling the injury report, who really knows? What I do know is that if both are playing, they can be dangerous no matter what. Plus, with Edelman returning I think the Patriots short pass game will be able to expose the pass rush of the Chiefs due to Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly.

    The Chiefs have had some close calls lately and while they are a team who generally does not hurt themselves with penalties or turnovers, I think they have a few costly ones today and New England is able to cash in on the opportunities provided leading to a victory and a cover.

  • hit the horns:

    Essay: Steelers +7
    The Steelers have lost 5 playoff games in Ben’s career:
    1) Ravens in 2014, 17-30
    2) Broncos in 2011, 23-29 – Tebow game
    3) Packers in 2010, 25-31 – Super Bowl
    4) Jaguars in 2007, 29-31 – Josh Scobee game
    5) Patriots in 2004, 27-41 – Ben’s rookie year, Troy Brown game.

    Point to all this is, Ben goes 10 years in between 7 point playoff losses. He’s not due for another until 2024.

    Our all play in this contest week 16 was Broncos +6.5 at Steelers. Closing number on this game was 7.5. I couldn’t find a reference point to where injuries + home field moved a line 15 points in three weeks.

    Other reasons to like Pittsburgh: Peyton is 0-5 in playoff games when kickoff temp was 40 degrees or colder; Peyton has 9 one and dones in the playoffs; Peyton is not healthy; Brock Osweiler is not healthy; Demarcus Ware is not completely healthy; Demarius Thomas’ mother will be at the game (she has been in jail for 15 years and has never seen him play in person)….no added pressure on him or anything.

    Patriots -5
    Cardinals -7
    Seahawks +2.5

  • DQuatts

    New England
    Green Bay

    *This one seems like nobody is giving Pittsburgh any credit. Starting running backs down, all-pro receiver out, not the most solid D we’ve ever seen come out of Pittsburgh that’s for sure. For some reason though, Denver is preparing like they are the underdog. They are preparing like they are injured and struggling for identity. I believe this is going to be a very solid performance from Denver and most importantly, their defense. Getting to Big Ben early and often will be key. I believe we have the talent to do so. A little bit of DQuatts in the stadium on Sunday never hurt those Broncos. Go home team…Go Peyton. Broncos 24-9.

  • Schroedinger

    +5 Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
    -2.5 Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks
    -7 Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

    Essay: -7 Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers
    Location: Glendale, Arizona
    Stadium: University of Phoenix Stadium
    Weather: 52 Mostly Cloudy NNW 2 mph (Who cares it’s in a dome)
    Broadcast: NBC 8:15 PM
    All Time Play Off Record: Cardinals 6-8 Packers 31-20
    The Game: I’m feeling my bias take over my thoughts. I watch that beat down the Cardinals put on the Packers in week 16. I am hoping for the same result this week. I am banking on Larry Fitzgerald to have a monster game. Fitz holds the NFL record for receiving years per game in the playoffs and hoping he exceeds that this week. Carson Palmer has been stellar in the last few seasons and just needs to continue that trend. The Packers last week in Washington squeaked out a victory over a Redskin team that was 9-7, but with further investigation was not all that great a team with victories over mediocre opponents. The key to the game as it was evident in week 16 is can the Green Bay Packers keep Aaron Rogers off his ass on Saturday. I’m thinking not so I’m taking the Cardinals. The line of 7 is kind of making me think but as most say stick with your gut.

  • FHCF

    **KC +5
    GB +7
    SEA +2.5
    PITT +7

    The Chiefs just win ugly, but they just win. I see rain and wind and the reeling Patriots, and I think ugly fits. Beauty is only a lightswitch and being able to hit Tom Brady away, and I think they can hit Tom Brady. I fear the Chiefs not being able to score enough, but they might not have to score much. This is just a bet that New England peaked too early and doesn’t have the horses left, even with Edelman supposedly coming back and Gronk being indestructible. Five seems too many. Ugly it up, Chiefs. And hang the hell on.


    1. NE -5 (Essay): KC has obviously been hot lately but they haven’t beaten a single team >.500 in their 11 game win streak outside of Denver when Peyton imploded and the Steelers with Landry Jones. They have a hard time moving the ball in general but now Maclin is either out or at best extremely hobbled. They will line up with Chris Conley and Albert Wilson at WR. They’ll probably rely heavily on Travis Kelce and he really is their only hope to move the ball. The Pats have been laying low for the latter half of the season while many of their best players heal up from injury- Gronk, Edelman, Volmer, Hightower. Everyone talks about KC’s pass rush but we saw Justin Houston really play hobbled last week and had to leave the game numerous times. It’s really tough to get pressure on Brady and that quick passing game. You need 20+ points to beat the Pats and I just don’t see how they get there without forcing turnovers. In fact in this KC win streak they’ve feasted on their opponents’ turnovers (14 opp TOs in last 6 games including 4 non offensive TDs in that stretch). As long as Brady doesnt turn it over uncharacteristically I think NE wins a lower scoring affair by 10+.

    2. ARI -7
    3. SEA +2.5
    4. PITT

  • cwonder

    Panthers -2.5 vs Seahawks
    Steelers +7 @ Broncos
    Cardinals -7 vs Packers

    Essay: Chiefs +5 @ Patriots
    The Chiefs were handed a blow out win last week by Brian Hoyer, but their defense was impressive nonetheless. Brady gets Edelman back this weekend which should be good news for the Patriots. I have a feeling the kickers are going to play a major role in this game which makes me think it’s close. The Chiefs embarrassed the Patriots in the last meeting and while I don’t expect there to be a repeat here, Andy Reid has his team rolling. Brady and company are going to have to wait until next year. Alex Smith finds a way in Foxboro.

  • Clay

    Packers (+7)
    Carolina (-2.5)
    Steelers (+7)

    New England (-5)
    welp, i figure if i miss the essay this week i’m done so… if i had to tie my fate to one of the remaining squads, give me Bill and Tom at home off a bye. i heard a stat where a team that records a shutout in the first round, they are awful ATS in the next round (sorry cant remember the exact numbers), so now i have an angle too… with the rest of these picks i’m basically trying to go opposite what i think the leaders will do and that leaves me with Rodgers and Ben getting points, and Cam at home… pretty sure that’s the best i can play this hand in my position

  • Trashy


    how to squeeze 100 words out of rapey Ben with bad shoulder and Antonio Brown out and Toussiant with a 2 point move after lines were set? I am concerned with a full 7with Peyton, but this defense carried my fantasy squads with defensive tds all year. I guess the real problem is that it is too obvious. Oh well, I’m so far behind I need the sure things. I am a little worried that I have essayed the largest line 2 weeks in a row but so it goes.

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