Cheddar wk12, MSU +13.5 at OSU

All play is Sparty +13.5 at Columbus.

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  • Matt Borcas

    ESSAY: PATRIOTS

    As long as the Pats have Brady and Gronk, their passing game will be fine. Amendola will ably fill Edelman’s shoes, and Dion Lewis is already a distant memory. The Bills have feasted on bad teams this season — their wins have come against the Colts, Titans, Jets, and Dolphins twice — and were dominated by the Pats at home in Week 2. Plus, Belichick has dominated Rex in recent years, and I don’t see any reason why tonight’s game won’t result in a continuation of that dominance. Don’t be shocked if the Pats win by 20+ points.

  • clayII

    Patriots (-7) / Bills

    This seems like a lay up to me. NE like 13-1 straight up vs Bills at home recently, and the loss was after a clinch resting players. Losing Edelman hurts a little but Bill and Tommy got an extra day to prepare and their o line is getting healthy. I also think secretly patriots REALLY want to go for perfect season and they ain’t going to let Tyrod even hang around to make this a game

  • PJD19

    Bills are as healthy as they’ve been all year and the Pats have major injuries to key players. This Bills team is starting to figure out their identity. They have a new HC, OC, DC and a ton of new players. Not surprisingly they had a relatively slow start, because with that many new players and schemes it takes time to settle into roles, play books and on field chemistry. They simply weren’t ready for NE in week 2 and they got embarrassed. The biggest difference now is that the Bills two corners have turned in to the aggressive, top tier lock down type that Rex’s defense needs to function properly. Brady is missing two of his top three weapons and it should slow his ability to get rid of the ball as quickly (even if it is only half a beat).

    Also it marks a game of redemption for Leodis McKelvin who infamously fumbled away a Bills victory on the season opener on Monday night in 2009. Look for Leo to atone by making a big play in his second game back tho season after a long injury. And it marks a game of redemption for me, after using my POTY way too early in the Cheddar season on the Bills against the Pats in week 2. And this game marks the beginning of a new era, as it is being played on the eve of my return to the Buffalo area after a long and wonderful stint in NEO. And the beginning of another new era where the Bills don’t lose every damn game to the Pats.

    • PJD19

      Bills essay over the Pats, in case it wasn’t clear.

  • PETER M via email yesterday

    ND
    OSU
    Panthers
    Raiders
    Vikes
    Bucs

    The Vikings are the sleeper team of the year, and just think, that could have been the Browns. $500,000 to study who is more NFL ready means nothing compared to Jersey sales.

    The Panthers are legit. The Browns are never terrible when a franchise QB is where we can draft him. Not the COLTS.

    The Raiders are the other version of the woulda coulda shoulda Browns. Remember last year, The Browns were better than the Bucs. A QB makes that much of a difference.

  • bupalos

    chiefs, vikings, cardinals, bills, 49ers** added to painful-but-neccesary MSU winner.

    49ers +12.5. But the Seahawks are a Superbowl Team and the 49ers are the worst team in the league you say? First of all, It’s an NFL game with a 12 point spread, which is pretty much always just wrong. Second of all, Mangini. If anyone can scheme something out of nothing, it’s probably him, especially facing any kind of strongly flavored offense. These guys beat the Hawks last week and made Ryan and Shannahan look pretty bad, and somehow that has everyone only reinterpreting Atlanta but still treating the 49ers as a known quantity. In reality the 49ers are just standard run of the mill bad team with a high beta. That’s what they’ve been all year and that’s what they are now. That gives them a great chance of hanging with a team that pretty much lets everyone hang with them, and Bupalos a great chance of completing his Lobsterfest with 3 big cheddar biscuits. Should be a POTY but he’s decided to only use one of those this year in order to give the rest of the field a fighting chance against his epic comeback.

  • Matt Borcas

    Cowboys, Bears. Essay to come.

  • pateslvrblk

    Jets-3
    Cardinals-5
    Panthers-7
    Pats-7***

  • Petefranklin

    Minnesota Vikings for my last pick today.
    Running game is too much to overcome for GB

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts Essay:

    Denver Broncos just because. Because this is a good football team. Because they have been winning games the whole year with little or no success on offense. If anyone out there actually thinks this offense can get worse by replacing their QB, they haven’t seen Brock Osweiler play. The guy is good. He’s smart. He’s athletic. And he has a cannon for an arm. I honestly think this is the best chance Demver has to make a run. They become unpredictable on offense. And we know what that defense is all about. Talib coming back this weeks means tough treading for Cutler. Broncos win.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    GB +1
    Atl -6
    Dal +1
    Den +1
    The Broncos defense was the reason they were undefeated, and Peyton is the reason they have one loss. Cutler is going to get beat up and go back to his turnover prone self and kubiak is going to be able run more of an offense he likes to run without an ancient Peyton manning. I don’t see the Bears putting more than 7 points up. That should be enough for the Broncos.

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      I’d like to change out Atl -6 for Jets -3.

  • FTCMikeD

    NFL picks:
    Panthers
    Bucs
    Cards
    *****
    The Chiefs could potentially be the winners of AFC West. As crazy as that would have sounded 4 weeks ago, it is certainly a possibility. Denver is heading in wrong direction. Oakland isn’t quite there yet and the Chargers are a mess. They are probably moving to LA and their fans and players know it, and it is in their heads. It seems like all of these Charger home games have ended in terrible last minute losses for SD, well except for the Browns of course. Anyways, I’m going with the Chiefs here.

  • HitTheHorns

    3) Vikings -1 **Essay Skip Week**
    4) Bears -1
    5) Chargers +3
    6) 49ers +12.5

  • Matt Borcas

    Buckeyes please.

    • Matt Borcas

      Oklahoma State over Baylor
      BC over Notre Dame

  • bupalos

    Msu please

  • oxr

    All-Play Michigan State +13.5 over Ohio State

    • oxr

      Jets -3 over Texans
      Packers +1 over Vikings
      Colts +6 over Falcons – I’ve had it with these gosh darn Atlanta Falcons
      Chiefs -3 over Chargers

      Essay Panthers -7 over Redskins – Good Team versus… well, maybe not Bad Team, but still Mediocre Team. #4 vs #15 in DVOA. Carolina’s at home. I had the Saints last week, which was another poor decision in a season full of them, but I’m choosing to take that blowout as a non-predictive event and hoping that Kirk Cousins returns to earth against a top-five defense on the road. Judging by the line, I’m not alone in this – but a couple of signature ugly turnovers here, a bit of Greg Olsen there, and suddenly laying a touchdown doesn’t seem so unreasonable on a lovely Sunday morning. (It may seem more unreasonable after brunch.)

  • limaontinder

    Buckeyes — All Play
    Jets
    Dolphins
    Mizzou
    Chiefs
    Baylor — Essay

    Could be really stupid here, but: There are two ways to come off a loss that derails your playoff hopes. Curl up and die in the face of lacking motivation and whatever, or eyeing up the next guy, Ok St., and deciding that you’re gonna go out and fuck their season too and show that the Oklahoma loss was an aberration.

  • thatsfine

    South Alabama +2.5

    • thatsfine

      SDSU -16
      Nevada +15
      CSU -1.5 POTY
      OSU -13.5
      NFL play to follow

      New Mexico is coming off a huge win at Boise State and the previous week vs. USU, and now control their own destiny. Wins vs CSU and Fresno next week and they take the division. Lobos were +30 last week and won SU. Let’s look at last week’s upset at Boise. The Lobos were outgained 641-413, 1st downs outgained 40-11. They gave up 506 yards passing. The story was BSU’s 4 turnovers – 2 inside the 10, plus turning it over on downs twice in NM territory. CSU has more or less won and lost all the games they were supposed to, the only surprise being a good win vs. Air Force, who happen to run a similar option scheme as the Lobos. The Rams kept it close earlier this year vs. Colorado and Minnesota, a plus in my book. One more reason to like CSU – they have one of the best punters in FBS. I think the Rams have superior talent on both sides of the ball, are going to have a big day against the New Mexico secondary, and like them in a letdown spot for New Mexico. My POTY.

    • thatsfine

      Broncos

  • CLEMPLS

    UNC -6.5
    OSU -13.5 (All Play)
    Broncos +1
    Packers +1
    Cardinals -5
    Falcons -6 (Essay)
    Falcons back in the dome coming off a loss and the bye week. Colts are without Luck off a win and their bye week. This is an interesting matchup, but with Julio getting a week off, and Devonta Freeman in the backfield, I think the Falcons score A LOT of points this week. Kyle Shanahan with an extra week of preparation and Matt Ryan should help. The Falcons started out this season hot and then fizzled out a bit. I think the bye week probably allowed them to regroup and refocus. They are a way better team at the dome, so I’ll take a flyer on this one.

  • Tim Butler

    Navy and MSU today.

    • Tim Butler

      Broncos
      Panthers
      Vikes

      Essay – Jets

      Texans are on a short week and coming off of their biggest win of the season against the Bengals on MNF. Jets are coming in off 10 day’s rest after a Thursday night loss to the Bills. Did I mention the Texans are starting TJ Yates at QB? This is a guy who wasn’t even in consideration for the starting gig in a QB battle featuring Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. Also, is it just me or have the late line additions usually been blowouts? I’m grasping at straws for this essay here. Go Bills.

  • jpftribe

    Rice
    LSU
    MSU all play

    All for 1.

    • jpftribe

      I wrote this essay yesterday and didn’t get around to posting it. If you
      are looking for sage football gambling advice, you can stop here.

      Woohoo, 6 pts last week, finally hit an essay pick. It was a ballistic transport to 47th place.

      Just part of a bizarro week. Started with the Paris thing, which in London was a little too close to home.
      Work
      was a fire drill all week. I discovered the Riverbus, which is major.
      For an extra 5 quid, you can forgo the 35 minute sardine can the brits
      aptly call the ‘tube’, for a leather seat, americano laden cruise down
      the Thames from Battersea power station (ha ha charade you are…) to
      Canary Wharf. It gets better with a beer on the way home.

      Yesterday
      morning I have to go to the bank branch counter. Standing in line
      behind me, no next to me, no behind , me no next to me is an obvious
      schizophrenic having a rather animated conversation with someone from
      another dimension. Wondering how this was going to end over the next 12
      minutes in line, I discovered my friend was none other than James Bond
      who had lost his bank card and ID. The tellers were amazing in unwinding
      what could have been a really messy situation.

      It gets better.
      Working late taking the sardine can home, 3 people stop in front of me
      to wait for the next tube with an open space right in front of me. Of
      course I jump on. Right next to a middle aged carribbean dude who is
      absolutely hammered. 7 stops and two assaults later, my journey to Green
      Park ends with Police, tube security and the Chief Inspector that
      happened to be in our car, hauling the dude away to some of London’s
      worst accommodations.

      What’s the point? I dunno. What does any of
      this have to do with football. Absolutely nothing, but I can’t imagine
      anyone wanting to read my essays for actual football gambling advice.
      Essay pick – Packers. They need this game and Vikes don’t.

      Rice – I liked the Hard Knocks dude and he was from Rice.
      LSU – The game is on here and the big money is on LSU.
      AP – MSU. Big money on MSU and OSU is due for a close one, which I expect until about 7 minutes left.
      Raiders
      Bengals, both surprising dogs.

  • mmmmsnouts

    Getting Iowa -22.5 in for one before kickoff. More to come.

    • mmmmsnouts

      The rest of my picks:
      ALL PLAY: Ohio State -13.5 vs. Michigan State
      Falcons -6 vs. Colts
      UCLA +2 vs. Utah (taking advantage of the Devontae Booker injury)
      Navy -11.5 vs. Tulsa
      ESSAY: Baylor PK over Oklahoma State

      I was at this game two years ago. It was very cold and the Cowboys mowed down Baylor by 32 points. Conditions and stakes are almost identical this time around, but there’s one big difference. Oklahoma State ran the ball extremely well two years ago. Not so much now. That’s the whole key to keeping Baylor off the field and in situations you can manage. And that’s why Baylor lost last week. It wasn’t their freshman QB, it was that they couldn’t get Samaje Perine off the field. I don’t think OKST has a runner who can control the game like that. Add in their turnover luck and they seem ripe for a loss. Baylor wins and sets off absolute chaos in the Big 12 again.

  • The Iron Sheik

    Michigan
    Osu
    Arkansas
    Lsu
    Panthers
    North Carolina

    Even though this is frank beemers last game at vtech there is too much fire power on this tar heels team to compete. Nc is peeking at the right time of year to really make some noise in the playoff picture realizing that if they win out Clemson is going to have their hands full with a team that will have all the momentum in the world behind them. So before I get too far ahead of myself the real questions is how good is the nc coaching and that will determine the outcome of whether or not Larry Fedora was able to keep his boys focused on the tasks at hand. They won’t lose due to lack of talent. Go heels!

  • 1) Houston -10
    2) San Diego St. -12.5
    3) New Mexico St. +16.5
    4) Packers +1
    5) Ohio St. -13.5 (All-Play)
    6) Navy -11.5 (Essay)

    Essay: Navy -11.5

    Pretty sure someone else stole the thunder on this one, specifically the stat that makes me love Navy in this one: Tulsa has given up an average of 220 yards on the ground per game this year. It’s no secret what Navy is going to do and who is going to do it. I picked Navy last week so I found myself watching more of the game vs. SMU than I would have ever anticipated. Navy won won 55-14, and it could have been even worse. Reynolds missed a few passes that would have gone for easy touchdowns given how much the other team sold out on the run. Not that I think Tulsa is going to be able to stop the option attack, but should they commit the people to doing so, I expect them to get burned on the occasional pass, that they also seem incapable of stopping. I think Navy wins this one and wins big again. Even if they don’t win big I see them at least winning by two touchdowns and enough to cover.

  • super p forever:

    ND -16.5 Boston College
    Tom Brady and his New England Patriots -7 Buffalo
    Southern Miss -21 Old Dominion
    Purdue +22.5 Iowa
    AP: OSU -13.5 Michigan State
    ESSAY: Michigan – 3.5 Penn State

    “Game day! Let’s Go! Remember last year. Beat Michigan #PennState.” Greg said it again, adding in exclamation points this time.

    While he was certain he was 99% there as far as the wording, his previous draft – the one with the hushed whispers – just hadn’t worked.

    “Game day…let’s go…remember last year…beat Michigan… #PennState.”

    While he liked the potential menace of it, he realized it could be equally interpreted as the dying exclamations of an injured fan, one who had reached a state of desperation. One who didn’t believe the Boilermakers could win, but rather wanted to envision it as he drifted to the afterlife.

    “Game day? Let’s Go? Remember last year? Beat Michigan? #PennState.”

    Too intellectual.

    Still, the exclamation points…there was something too obvious about it. While the yelling of his fandom was exciting and dramatic, he also felt it was generic in a way. Obligatory.

    Would anyone even believe he really wanted vengeance for last year?

    Greg had been slaving over the perfect game-day Tweet since Tuesday, eschewing such simple pleasures as sleeping, spending time with his girlfriend, and not Tweeting.

    Would it be worth it. Time would tell. Saturday would tell.

    LOST

    https://twitter.com/gregzyhowski/status/668099442332065794

    • I think I put SMU in the spreadsheet, but I meant Southern Miss, and I didn’t know the acronym. Is Cheddar Bay almost over it’s like torture.

  • Dave Borcas

    Tho beer is weeks picks………..
    Texas A&M -6.5
    USC +4
    Indiana +3
    Buckeyes (all play)
    Rams +2
    Broncos +1 (essay)
    The Bears, once thought to be a contender for the drafts top pick is now a team no one wants to play. But history shows every time a Jay Cutler team is given credit, well, Jay Cutler becomes Jay Cutler. Trust me on that, I have been down that road. The Denver D, not necessarily Peyton Manning was responsible for the Broncos 7-0 start. This week we get our first look at a Brock Osweiller led Broncos offense. The guy has a big arm, but can he stay away from the mistakes, especially on the road. I think the Denver D keeps the score low enough where Osweiller won’t have to have much pressure to deliver. It is very interesting that Peyton Manning will not travel with the team and be on the sidelines to help Brock. In the end a staunch D with offensive veterans to support Osweiller lead to a Broncos victory.

  • Its Only Money

    Minnesota
    North Carolina
    Oklahoma St.
    Cardinals
    All Play: Sparty
    Essay: Cheifs

    These are two teams going in different directions. The Chargers have lost 5 in a row after beating the Browns. The Chiefs on the other hand the are looking for the 4th win in as many games. Alex Smith has played well in this win streak and should continue this week against a Chargers defense that has been regressing each week. I don’t think the bye gave the chargers enough time to heal all their wounded warriors. The chiefs are playing to keep their playoff hopes alive. The chargers are playing in front of more visiting fans than home fans. The lame duck feeling seems to have crept out of the stands onto the field in San Diego. I just don’t see how the Chiefs don’t win this win going this and cover.

  • pateslvrblk

    Sparty and Rutgers for today.

  • Michigan and I’m going to go ahead and bite that 3.5 hook for the essay. I don’t know why the line has moved to favor PSU and I’m past trying to figure that shit out although I might point out that moving from 5 to 3.5 is fairly meaningless. It didn’t stay at 3 long. Yeah, I saw the Indiana game and I’m saying they were still hungover from the MSU loss. And I will point out that after yielding 300 rush yds to IU, UM is STILL #2 in total defense. I won with PSU’s cover at NU last week and my god, the 103rd ranking in NCAA total offense is well earned. So I’m figuring the half point hook won’t matter with PSU hard pressed to score 10 points. Franklin did a lot of great things turning around Vandy and I think he’ll get it done at State College… but creating a dynamic offense was NOT part of his portfolio and even with a legit pro QB they’ve been unable to convert 3rd downs. Penn State is batting .283 in third converts… that is 126th (out of 127) in NCAA D1 football. It doesn’t figure to improve against this defense.

    • Duke and USC.

    • Petefranklin

      Pretty shitty essay on Penn State for me this week, I should have stuck with all MW plays.

  • cwonder23

    USF vs Cincy (win)
    GA Southern +13.5 @ Georgia
    NW +10.5 @ Wisconsin
    All Play: OSU -13.5 vs Michigan State
    Rams +2 @ Ravens
    Essay: UNC -6.5 @ Va Tech

    Ok, I get it, my heart has been telling me to take Va Tech and Beamer in his last home game all week. But, this UNC team is ROLLING. I truly believe they should be ranked, if not in, near the top 10 in the CFP. One little hiccough in game uno of the year and they are in the top 8. After watching Marquise Williams’ offense and Gene Chizik’s defense the last two weeks, I can’t pick against them. Frank Beamer has been a great coach but that doesn’t change a blood hungry UNC team. He will me missed but will also want a hard drink after this one. UNC 42 – Beamer 17.

    • cwonder23

      Kanick (Mike B.): For the integrity of Cheddar and the “Roster” below, I used my POTY last week…and lost. 🙁

      • cwonder23

        Also, hate doing this, going with my original “gut feeling.” Switching to MSU +13.5. Thanks.

  • zarathustra

    My picks this week were going to be buckeyes for the all-play, Memphis, Minnesota, Kansas St, and UCLA as my essay. The problem is that last week I turned around a cold streak by just going with my final four playoff picks even though some of the numbers were a bit ugly. This week the number on each team is vomit-inducing. All heavy favorites, which breaks one of Zara’s first rules of football wagering. What to do? What to do? Well, seeing that this comes to you while pretending to be in a princess’ castle I’ll go with the whimsical, superstitious route.

    Florida
    Oklahoma
    Ohio St
    North Carolina***
    The Heels are coming off of two blowouts and that definitely points toward taking the home team with the points. And Virginia Tech is tough at home. Moreover, it’s Beamer’s last home game. Oh, and there appears to be some reverse line movement.
    Do…Not…Care.
    They are not quite as good, but this Heels team has some similarities to last year’s Buckeyes. An athletic and explosive roster that is peaking in November for an improbable playoff push. We will see a one-loss Sec champ in one playoff spot for sure. An undefeated Big Ten champ in another. If Oklahoma wins the next two they are very likely in as well. The Pac-12 teams are out so we are looking at the final spot being the ACC champ or Notre Dame. So essentially only two teams stand in front of the Heels at this point: Clemson and Notre Dame. They will play Clemson so they control their own destiny in that regard. Notre Dame is on a very mild upset alert tonight in Boston and then follow up the back-to-back at Stanford. I don’t know what will happen there and who knows if the Heels will beat Clemson, but I do think they make a statement the next to weeks leading up to it.

    • zarathustra

      Oy….
      Well, it wouldn’t be a cheddarbay season without me giving up points by getting way to cute with my picks. 4 points yesterday sure would have been better than 0.
      Today I like the Rams, Bucs, Niners, Vikings, and Cardinals. Hmmm. I’ll make my official picks: Bucs and Niners.

  • ChuckKoz

    UCLA +2 (Utah)
    Packers +1 (Vikings)
    Navy -11.5 (Tulsa)
    Illinois +5 (Minnesota)
    AP: Ohio State -13.5 (Michigan State)
    Essay: Seahawks -12.5 (49ers)
    I cannot do right. My picks this year have been an abomination. And I have a new excuse (sorry Kanick): its the new Cheddar submitting form. What it is doing is causing me to spend less time looking at the comments of my fellow geniuses. Well, with that in mind, all of these picks come as a result of merging my instinct with the more reasoned essays of fellow Cheddar players. And for the actual essay pick, I incorporate all of FlyHighCharlieFry’s argument and add in that 4 of the 5 Seahawks losses were all close and were against stiff competition (at Packers, at Bengals, vs Panthers, vs. Cardinals)

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Just found out I can get a fantastic, 40 yard line, 3rd row, upper deck ticket for the Rice UTSA game for $10.00. Perhaps I should have picked a more important game for my PotY.

    • Are you going to be at the game?

      • actovegin1armstrong

        90% certain

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Worried that I may take a plunge off the upper deck if I lose my PotY.

        • I haven’t seen any news reports about this so I’m assuming you’re OK.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            As Yukon Cornelius said, “Bumbles bounce!”

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Just bought it

  • FTCMikeD

    College Picks:
    Wisconsin
    AP: Ohio State

  • HitTheHorns

    2) Ohio State -13.5

  • Concierge

    MSU
    PSU
    Memphis
    Arkansas
    Cowboys

  • from uncle d

    i am hoping the white out / 12th man in happy valley today can bring home my alum a big win over UM. my thought is that Harbaugh is so focused on the buckeyes next week and overlooking a hungry nitty lion team, who wants to send out their seniors in style ( unlike my senior year ;(

    michael zordich, coaching the wolverines secondary and dear friend, believes his alma mater ( psu 86/) will also be up for the challenge, on senior day ! i asked him to please take it easy on our WR !!!

    go Lions !!

    MSU
    PSU
    WAKE
    IOWA
    NOTRE DAME
    PATS

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Ucla +2
    Ohio st -13.5

  • Nick

    Falcons -6 vs Colts
    MSU +13.5 vs OSU
    Seahawkss -12.5 vs 49ers
    Mizzou +8 vs Tenn
    Tulane +3 vs SMU
    Illinois +5 at Minny

    I leave for Jamaica in 22 hours but who’s counting. My essential items for this trip: 1 bottle of Kentucky bourbon, 3 swimsuits, 1 pair of chubbies, 1 set of golf clubs, and 2 Stephen King Dark Tower series books. It’s taken me 30 years to learn that things in life are better with a story. This week’s essay play is Illinois, because I want to believe they are a growing, confident team. They now have 4 players going to the East/West Shrine game. This is a bowl hungry bunch, there’s got to be a nice vibe in the locker room. The defense performed admirably in a 28-3 loss to OSU last week, this is a perfect spot for a bounce back game for the offense.

    • 3 swimsuits?

      • Nick

        1 is a speedo. I like to chew on lettuce and swim laps like hunter s

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Nick, please rethink your literary selection. Pelham Grenville Wodehouse tells a far more interesting, plausible and positive story than Stephen “Is This Chump Really Popular” King. Or please choose Douglas Adams. I wish I had mirrored your Tulane pick.

      • Nick

        I don’t disagree, especially on the positivity from Pelham, but would suggest The Stand and hopefully Dark Tower series stand out as epic good vs evil storytelling. The Nashville library system is a farce and only carries Adam’s Hitchhiker series. Hopefully Santa brings me more Douglas Adams this year.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          Please read
          “The Long, Dark, Tea-Time of the Soul”.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          I shall anoint you Wowbagger the Infinitely Prolonged!

  • Petefranklin

    Essay) Penn St +3.5 over Meeeeechigan

    Penn State is not getting much respect here from the bettors after pushing (ATS) vs Northwestern. Unbelievably though Michigan is. Last week I had 2 teams off a bye in CFB in Cheddar action, resulting in massive covers with SDSU by 14, Ga Southern by 30, and my ArkSt essay 14 point winner with them on 3 extra days rest. Michigan , however, has been pushed to the limit lately with a too close for comfort OT win in Bloomington last week

    • Petefranklin

      Essay cont.)

      And a game 3 weeks ago that they should have lost outright to the Gophers, even off of their bye week. Both of those were on the road and Happy Valley will not be in a welcoming mood today. BTW did you see all the empty seats in Bloomington last week? Are you telling me that a two hour drive from Detroit is too far for Meeeeechiganders to follow their team? Frontrunners! Anyway, it will be a whiteout in Happy Valley with virtually no support for the Wolves . We all know who is on deck for Michigan next week, and Harbaugh has undoubtably been plotting for OSU for months. Indiana ran all over the previously vaunted Wolverine rush defense for 307 yards last week, which doubled the previous high of 144.Couple all that with an alarming 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 vs. the Lions and this looks better and better to me, especially because Harbaugh won’t be able to massively outcoach Franklin today.

      • Petefranklin

        SJSU -10.5 over Hawaii is the bailout game for you degenerates who bet Michigan today. Last week I predicted the demise of Monroe’s coach and nailed it. Today I am predicting an announcement forthcoming out of Honolulu that football will no longer be played at UH. UH has quit on the year, losing at home to a lousy Fresno team last week. SJSU needs this game for a decent bowl bid and should not be distracted as they come from a beach lifestyle. I know none of you ever watch the late west coast games and there is no need to stay up for this one, just bet it and thank me in the morning!

        • GRRustlers

          Love this. The demise of football in Hawaii is going to make a great 30 for 30.

          • Petefranklin

            Very sad story. There is a lot of high school talent on the islands, St louis and the one on the north shore produce NFLers.

      • Petefranklin

        AP) OSU

        I really hate taking the Bucks in Cheddar AP action as taking the opposition usually results in gaining ground on most everyone. Today the public forces my hand, with 76% of the bets on Sparty. The hard hitters are definitely on OSU from what I’ve heard. This probably means that Cook is not going to be healthy today. Look for OSU to exorcise the undefeated vs Sparty curse in a big way today. Hopefully someone remembers to close the back door when the talk turns to Meeeeechigan in the 4th quarter.

  • Petefranklin

    Mike, Im assuming BGSU past post play does not stand right?

    • correct, you are not on hook for bgsu.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    AP MSU
    Akron
    Navy
    Raiders
    Eagles
    **Packers +1
    Obligatory pick this week. I’ll be watching the game up in WI with the whole fam on day #1 of a week-long food coma. Heaven.
    No question this is a must win divisional game for GB. They’ve lost their last 3 games, and MN has won I think their last 5. Too many injuries, but Lacy is back this week and needs to have a huge game to give Rodgers a break. I’m expecting a nail biter but a win will be a nice start for a great week.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      CLTIL, Is it true? Is Mr Rodgers a problem player? Our local, very questionable sports guys say that he does not play well with others. What is the real scoop?

      • CleveLandThatILove

        I’ll ask my mom. She knows everything.

  • Jmacdaddio

    Pitt -3
    MSU +13.5
    Oklahoma St. PK (Essay)
    Purdue +22.5
    Falcons -6
    Chiefs -3

    A couple of quick thoughts: Why is Auburn playing Idaho? Late season cupcake games are weak.
    Baylor-OSU would have made a good All Play.
    Starting with Jags-Titans last night, a lot of terrible NFL games are on tap for this weekend.
    I’m not sure if Peyton Manning pulling a Ray Lewis and telling his teammates that this is his final ride would do any good – he’s that done.

    Baylor-Oklahoma St looks to be a high-scoring game. OkSt is just producing more points and is at home. The oddsmakers had it as a tossup, various sources have it as a point one way or the other. Baylor is probably a top 15 team, however they had no business being talked about as championship contenders. Opponents can stay in games against them, and I don’t see their defense holding againt a tidal wave.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Virginia Tech: North Carolina comes into this one searing hot, flat wiping the floor Miami last week. Prior to that one, I think people knew they were on a roll, but there still was not a whole a whole lot of pressure. Now, off that big win, there is some talk of NC possibly being a potential outsider for the playoff given they still have Clemson on deck. Meanwhile, VT is in the middle of an up and down turd type season, but have something to play for here with Beamer heading out the door. Should be a spot for a near max effort while North Carolina is probably pretty ripe for a flat one. VT for my essay.

  • jdoepke

    Not a lot I love this week but here we go to get above that red line.
    Sparty +13.5 (AP)
    Maryland -3
    Vandy +6.5
    UCLA +2
    Bears – 1

    Essay:
    Temple +2. USF was my essay last week because the line stunk and the public was so heavy on Temple but money on USF. I’m watching USF destroy my Bearcats right now. 70% of bets on Memphis and I expected that as over-reaction. Temple still a decent team and 81% money on Temple and the points. I will go with the Owls outright. Temple 31 – Memphis 28.

  • Capitalgg

    1. Raiders -2 @ Lions
    2. Cowboys pk @ Dolphins
    3. Penn St. +3.5 v. Michigan
    4. Buccaneers +5.5 @ Eagles
    5. Baylor pk @ Oklahoma St.

    So I’ll be spending my Saturday in a soggy and increasingly chilly Horseshoe for the game of the year in Columbus. Sparty comes in with a crazy streak of having beaten unbeaten Buckeye teams in November or later 3 straight times. The last 2 times I remember vividly. In the 2013 B1G Championship, a stout defense stuffed 3rd and 4th down run attempts as the OSU coaches forgot Carlos Hyde was on thier side. The other, much more devastating as John Cooper’s best team lost 28-24 in a game in which the Buckeyes squandered a 17-3 first quarter lead on a series of inprobably bad bounces I’ve never witnessed since.

    But Saturday is a different day, Urban Meyer is a different kind of coach, and this is a very different Buckeye team. Ohio St. has playmakers everywhere on offense. It has a workhorse who will likely finish 2nd on the school’s all-time rushing list in only 2 real seasons of work. It has a defense that has allowed just over 50 combined yards rushing to its last 2 opponents, Minnesota and Illinois. It has a probable top 5, if not top overall pick, in next spring’s NFL draft who demands at least a double-team on every play lest he break the opposing quarterback. And with MSU’s Connor Cook coming into this one with a bad shoulder already, expect Bosa to force him out early. After that, it will be mearly academic as Ohio St. rolls over an overmatched Sparty. Ohio St. -13.5 over Michigan St. in Columbus.

  • trashycamaro

    Msu over OSU.

    Possibly more college tomorrow

    • trashycamaro

      New baby prevented any college action. she has browns onesie in the closet, but I am thinking too early for that kind of punishment? anyway…

      Panthers -7 over Redskins

      Lions +2 over Raiders

      Dolphins PK over Cowboys

      Colts +6 over Falcons

      Essay Jets -3 over Texans we know fitz is fine as a qb until the coniditions get to him, and while it is a little chilly in Houston, the wind is mild. we know the texans offense is bad, with only hopkins as a real weapon and nothing else that even grades out as average. we know the texans defense is bad, relying on watt and a surprisingly stout run defense to make up for their deficiencies against the pass. with an ok Fitz throwing to Marshall and Decker, and a very good defense beating up on the immortal TJ Yates the Jets cover pretty easily.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 12 Picks

    Carolina (-7) over Washington

    New England (-7) over Buffalo

    Seattle (-12.5) over San Francisco

    Denver (+1) over Chicago

    AP – Ohio State (-13.5) over Michigan State

    Essay Pick

    Wife hands me phone and asks if I have seen this.

    http://www.totalprosports.com/2015/11/19/olivia-munn-fires-back-at-journaliststrolls-blaming-her-vagina-for-the-packers-losing-streak/

    That has to be one of the most amazing headlines I have ever read. Anywhere.

    Everyone take a deep breath…maybe even should I say. Relax.

    The Browns were 7-4 last year and at some point next year people will talk about how the Vikings were once 7-2. That’s actually a horrible comparison because the Vikings are a decent football team that has first round playoff loss written all over them for the next five years. It’s a side benefit of hiring a Bengals guy as your coach.

    No need to panic about the Packers. Sometimes it’s good to get healthy and go out on the road.

    Packers (+1) over Vikings

  • Petefranklin

    Afa +12 for one point tonight

    • Petefranklin

      Singles:
      SDSU
      SJSU

      Essay: PSU over Meeeechigan
      Essay tomorrow AM

      • Petefranklin

        Scratch SDSU and insert Vandy +6.5

  • Boise St. for one point.

    • Petefranklin

      Probably too many points but we will see. Boise may not get any public support after tonight if they lose

    • Not just piling on here, because I’ve been planning to do this all week: Joining Squeeky with Virginia Tech +6.5 over North Carolina as my pick of the week in Frank Beamer’s last game as head coach at Blacksburg. Squeeky hit on most of the main points but I’ll add that this is somehow only UNC’s third road game this season. Both of their previous road games (Georgia Tech, Pitt) have been one-score affairs. Also, Virginia Tech has had to play most of their season with their backup QB who has not been good at all, but has only lost one game with their starter, Michael Brewer, a 45-43 overtime barnburner against Duke in his first game back. Tech was leading Ohio State at halftime before Brewer had to leave that game. Finally, here are two paragraphs from Beamer’s Wikipedia page that make clear this is not a guy to go against on a day like this:

      In 1954, when Beamer was seven years old, he used a push broom to help keep a pile of burning trash in place. When the job was done he returned the broom to the garage, not knowing that its bristles were still smoldering. A spark ignited a nearby can of gasoline, that exploded in front of him. His 11-year-old brother, Barnett, saved him by rolling him around on the ground, but Frank was left with burns on the right side of his neck, chest and his shoulders. Over the next few years dozens of skin grafts left him with permanent scarring.

      Beamer is also a direct descendant of Floyd Allen and the notorious Allen clan, the fierce mountain men who shot up the Carroll County, Virginia courthouse in a spasm of violence in 1912 that left five people dead, including the judge, prosecutor and county sheriff. This bit of Beamer’s family history helps explain why he was such a powerful voice in Blacksburg after the Virginia Tech massacre, after which he said the important thing was not to allow the act of violence to define the university. “We can’t let one person destroy what goes on here every day, the caring, the thoughtfulness. We can’t let one person destroy that.”

      And three more college picks:

      Wisconsin -10.5 over Northwestern: 8-2 Wisconsin still looking for a win over a winning team. Had they not turned the ball over 4 times and failed to score from the 2-yard-line late against Iowa in a 10-6 loss, they’d have the inside track to the B1G title game. 8-2 Northwestern lost at home to Iowa 40-10.

      Oklahoma State PK over Baylor: Oklahoma was such an obvious pick last week and I’m still smarting from having missed it. Baylor’s freshman quarterback looks a lot like a freshman quarterback. It will be fun if the selection committee has to choose between an undefeated Ok. St. team and 1-loss Notre Dame.

      Ohio State -13.5 over Michigan State.

      Back tomorrow with an NFL pick.

  • Chris Schroeder

    -11.5 Navy @ Tulsa
    -16 San Diego State @ UNLV
    -10.5 San Jose State @ Hawaii
    -2 Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions

    All Play: -13.5 Ohio State vs Michigan State

    Essay: +33 Idaho @ Auburn
    Location: Auburn, Alabama
    Stadium: Jordan-Hare Stadium
    Turf: Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass
    Capacity: 87,451
    Time: 4:00 PM EST on SEC Network
    Weather: 58 & Cloudy winds 2 mph NE
    Mascot: Joe Vandel vs Aubie the Tiger
    Fun Fact: Auburns stadium was two former names. Auburn Stadium (1939-1949) & Cliff Hare Stadium (1949-1973)

    The Game: We have made if to week 12 in College Football. CFP committee is creating great discussion for the good and as well as the mess they have created. Most individuals are focused on games that will affect the top four in the nation. Many won’t notice that most of the SEC is on a bye week. It looks real bad when the homer paper aka ESPN puts out an article that titles, “Dull
    football weekend a great time for a fall weekend in Alabama.” Well hello Auburn!! Yes this will be a snooze fest and for those of you that do not get the SEC Network don’t worry go break some cake. Auburn will find themselves up early and turn to the running game to bleed out the clock.
    Second team will come in and give up a few scores to keep the game
    between 33. Auburn cruses and becomes bowl eligible. Idaho doesn’t win, but I do…

  • AIR FORCE +12. I’ll take the Falcons ground and pound to keep this within 10 points, and maybe pull off the improbable upset.

    MICH ST +13.5. OSU hasn’t been putting people away the way they should this year. I definitely think Sparty is overrated, but I feel like too much is on the line here for this to be a runaway. Plus, the more one-loss teams in the B1G, the better for my Irish.

    NEVADA +15. They’ve played nobody, and beat nobody. But they’re holding their own in the same conference as Utah State. They run the football. Not sure where all the points are coming from.

    COWBOYS PK. ROMO.

    PACKERS +1. RODGERS.

    $$$ CHEDDAR $$$
    NAVY -11.5. This might be Navy’s best football team since Staubach. It’s actually been fun to watch them, and I think due to the precision with which they run their offense, they’d give anyone in the country a game for four quarters. They play real defense, limiting teams to less than 19ppg. And look, I ain’t no rookie, I realize they play in The American Conference, but if you haven’t been watching, teams from that conference have been beating Power Five teams all season. American teams have beaten: Penn State, Va Tech, Ole Miss, Miami FL, Vandy, Cuse (I know those last two are laughable), but the point is, the top of this conference can compete. Navy is coached exceptionally well, they are deeply experienced at positions that matter, and with Tulsa giving up 220 per game on the ground, this will be a slaughter.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Maryland -3
    2. K St -5.5
    3. Colts +6
    4. Lions +2
    5. OSU all play
    6. UCLA +2 (essay): Booker is out for Utah and he IS their offense. I can’t see how Utah will be able to keep up on the scoreboard without Booker. Utah got knocked out of any playoff contention last week so there may be a bit of a let down here. UCLA gets back their best WR Devin Fuller who has missed the last few weeks and will bolster the weapons for Rosen.

    • CLEVTA

      Please replace Lions with Va Tech +6.5

  • On Wednesday I contemplated putting in for WMU and Kent State. My picker is broken. Has been.

    **Essay**Cal +10.5 @ Stanford
    How has Stanford consistently been favored by 10+ points in rivalry games? On Halloween, I stood in a double-wide trailer, also known as a cash-only karaoke bar, Santa’s Pub – cursing myself for not making Wazzu my pick of the year. I had wanted to, I swear. Watching the heartbreak in progress at a Stanford watch-party in Nashville last Saturday, I chastised myself for not taking the duck because I could find a way to make it match up with a verse in that stupid poem. This week, I select Cal +10.5 at Stanford, for three points. Still lacking the gonads to lay down a POTY. I’m feeling apprehensive about any and all picks I make these days. After losing to Oregon last week though, for Stanford, does anything matter anymore?

    All Play OSU -13.5 vs. MSU
    My first instinct is to take Michigan State. Hence my taking OSU. I also think the Illuminati gods of college football need an OSU blowout to help them justify putting OSU back into the playoffs after a cakewalk that tripped them – though they never completely fell. Being the reigning champs is probably an okay reason unto itself, but who really wants more questions and prying into a system that leads to Oz behind a curtain calculating whose fan bases are willing to spend the most money that spills right into their pockets?

    Penn +3.5 vs. Michigan
    White out. Seniors last home game. Michigan looking ahead to Buckeyes.

    Maryland -3 vs. Indiana
    Blue crab & oysters.

    Boston College +16.5 vs. Notre Dame
    Chowda.

    Detroit +2 vs. Raiders

  • HitTheHorns

    1) UL-Monroe +6.5

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Buckeyes
    Charlotte
    Baylor
    Texas State
    Bengals

    Seattle Seahawks -12.5

    Gabbert and Tomsula. In Seattle. These teams played just a month ago and my gosh was it ugly. And though it has all the makings of a trap game because the Niners are off a bye, the Niners are still as awful as the Browns. The Seahawks should be pissed off after just getting embarrassed at home and should get two scores out of their defense, honestly. The Niners get, what, 6 points here? 10, tops? I can’t resist laying the points and expecting it to be just awful — and awfully lopsided.

  • cwonder23

    USF +2.5 vs Cincinnati for one cheddar point please.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    PoTY **** Rice **** PoTY
    essay drivel to follow

    • actovegin1armstrong

      RIce v. UTSA
      UTSA is still without a quarterback, and while that usually does not bother me, UTSA has an offensive line that were once masters of the “lookout block”,now they neglect to even yell “lookout”. Whomever shall be playing quarterback will have a very long, hectic day.
      This line is swayed towards UTSA because it is a home game, and with the long and storied history of the UTSA football program, home games really mean that the team…. oh, they do not have a long and storied history.
      Actually, there shall be a big home field advantage which can be attributed to the conditions of the Frozen Tundra of the Alamodome. UTSA students are not exactly wild eyed hilljacks ready to burn their bed, (the couch in grandma’s basement), for their team. Rice fans are not crazy for football either.
      Neither team has extra motivation, Rice has smarter players and less of a quarterback carousel. There offensive line also does a better job of working together, talent, or the lack thereof notwithstanding. This is another game where the point spread should be flipped.

      I take the mighty Rice Owls for my Pick of the Year.

      • Petefranklin

        Ring the cowbell!!

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Northwestern

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Jacksonville Jags

  • actovegin1armstrong

    AP- MSU +13.5 AP

  • The Exec Comm requests that all voters conform to the AP Stylebook in posting votes here: http://deadspin.com/ap-stylebook-declares-which-college-teams-get-to-go-by-1743367551

  • clayII

    Kent for 1

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Once upon a time not too long ago I decided to pick a football game a day for 5 days to spread out the fun. It was an almost lobsterfest (the little bird is still stuck in my basement regretting my switching Clemson and ND) and I thought I would indulge again. I used a mixture of my algorithm and my gut to make my votes, much as I do in my real job. (http://mobile.journals.lww.com/em-news/_layouts/oaks.journals.mobile/articleviewer.aspx?year=2015&issue=02000&article=00002&ContextualNavigationType=search).
    Turns out that it is 4/5 instinct and 1/5 science is a good combination for
    deciding who is sick and who is not sick, so why not use the same ratio for
    football voting?

    The Falcons are the last game in my line up so I am predicting their being the final culmination to a perfect week. I was going to take a no essay week but I find myself in a waiting room with my phone and I have already spent an hour jumping from my spreadsheet in my email to cheddar bay to donbest.com (pulled up twice for college and nfl). Hee hee hee.

    “Oh the places you’ll go! There is fun to be done! There are points to be scored. There are games to be won. And the magical things you can do with that ball will make you the winning-est winner of all.” Dr. Seuss

    Tuesday Toledo win (algorithm)
    Wednesday Northern Illinois – 3 (gut)
    Thursday East Carolina -14.5 (algorithm)
    Friday Air Force + 12 (gut)
    Saturday MSU +13.5 (gut)
    Sunday Falcons -6 (algorithm)

  • Concierge

    Kent Essay tonight +10.5

    This is the one game that I think can Kent can keep it close in. Overall Kent is a much better team at home than on the road. Kent has a legit defense that will be able to get stops vs a CMU team that struggles to run the ball. Love Kent’s secondary. In what should be a sloppy game in the rain tonight I doubt that Cooper Rush will be able to put up big numbers there for I’ll take the points in a game where the players will be playing for Paul Haynes job…also of note CMU owns the largest TOP in the conference. That means long drives that could end in 3 points. Very low scoring game IMO.

  • Petefranklin

    BGSU for a single tonight

    • Petefranklin

      Saved by the Bell. Tried to get the wife to bet it and the game was gone. No action I guess, since the game started 45inutes ago and I just posted it here.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Toledo for 1, Ball St for 1 please

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Toledo for 1

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