Cheddar wk8: Jets +9 at Pats


At post, no lines for: UW/Stanford, Troy/NMSU, Steelers/Chiefs, Falcons/Titans

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  • clayII

    Ravens (+7.5) / Cards

    Was late gettin my picks in so got stuck with this for essay. Keep thinking the Ravens will at least somewhat get their shit together. I know they are not a playoff team, but… I like gettting this 7.5 with an “elite” qb like Flacco. Even if they get down big early, you always get the chance for the back door cover, because every NFL team goes in to SOFT coverages and stops blitzing when protecting a 2 score or more lead. Like what Rivers did yesterday vs Oakland. I know they were favored but same scenario

  • RDGinCLE

    The Cardinals are scoring a ton of points in their wins, but last week really seemed to sputter vs a not-all-that-great Pittsburgh team. While Zona should benefit from being back at home after a couple weeks on the road, Baltimore is a notoriously tough group in primetime. And despite their deficiencies in the secondary, the combination of the Monday Night factor, Forsett’s ground game, and the inspirational boost a team can receive from injecting a guy like Steve Smith back into the lineup should be enough to stay within this relatively big number.

    Ravens +7.5 POTW

  • “It’s a goddamn matriarchy over there.” John Silber’s memorable observation about the BU English Department may apply here at Cheddar. With Pate staring down her second Lobsterfest (Cardinals essay tonite) and SuperP with two already and CLTIL doing her normal and the other-worldly Agnes debut, the women of Cheddar are currently 107-57-7. That’s 64.6% ATS.

  • Matt Borcas

    Jets, Falcons, Raiders

    • Matt Borcas

      Essay: Giants over Cowboys

      Did everyone watch EJ Manuel play this morning? He was awful, as is his wont, and yet back in September, the Bills thought he was a significantly better option than Matt Cassel … who will be starting this afternoon against the Giants, because Jason Garrett finally came to his senses and concluded that WEEDS is not a viable solution at QB. Despite their no-show in Philly last week, the Giants have generally been solid this season: they played the Falcons close, put together a nice three-game winning streak after starting 0-2, and really should have beaten the Tony Romo-led Cowboys in Week 1. They’ll be out to avenge that loss today, and with Cassel starting for the Cowboys, doing so won’t be terribly difficult.

  • bupalos

    I vote for Utah, cmfb, jets, chargers, and some other teams I don’t remember. Its not because they aren’t good picks that I can’t remember them, its just because its hard to remember things that happened over an hour ago. My essay vote is on whichever of these teams is playing the steelers. I think that’s the chargers but it could be another team, again, its hard to do remembering. There isn’t any line on that game, but there should be, and I presume there will be, and whatever that line turns out to be I think its a great number. These guys are running a rookie qb in his second game, which is always the worst!! GO NOT STEELERS!!!!!

  • CleveLandThatILove

    NMSU (L)
    AP Jets
    Steelers +2.5
    Vikings -2.5
    Chargers -4
    Colts -5
    **Pride is a huge motivator in the NFL, maybe more than even money because, well, they are men after all. My first thought after whatever the heck that thing was that the Colts did last week late in game with everyone watching was to pick Indy next week no matter what. (This is what Cheddar participation does to you. Every weekend has become a collection of mental notes to self.) Meanwhile, the Saints are feeling pretty good about themselves for the big win over Atlanta with everyone watching last Thursday. I thought the Colts looked otherwise decent against the Pats last week, and I’d love to see Luck have a huge day against a mediocre Saints defense.

  • Petefranklin

    4) RAMS
    5) RAIDERS
    6) AP JETS

  • CLEinMPLS

    Toledo -14 (Win)
    Kentucky +11 (Loss)
    Dolphins -4
    Falcons -3.5
    Jets +9 (All Play)
    Raiders +4 (Essay)

    Can’t believe I am taking the Raiders on the road for my essay pick, but here goes. Raiders off a bye, short travel, and they have only had one stinker all year. Much like the Browns, they hung around with Denver, and could have won that game. The Chargers give up points. I look for Amari Cooper and Murray to have huge days here. My concern is that the Raiders are banged up on the d-line, so I am thinking a shootout with a late FG to win. I just don’t trust the Chargers in this spot. Coming off an emotional, close loss at Green Bay.

  • oxr @oxr

    @603_brown AP Jets, Steelers, Browns, Panthers, essay Falcons (I’ll use my no-essay week if I can’t work out how to comment in time…)

  • Peter Markos

    Pats
    Cards -7
    Panthers -3.5
    Essay Falcons -4
    The Falcons have been able to score all season, The Titans caught the Bucs off guard on opening day, and haven’t done much since. Throw in Marcus isn’t playing, Matt Ryan beats that guy.
    The Patriots will score on any defense, jets included.
    The Panthers are on a roll.
    The Cards are at home are at home and the Ravens suck.

  • 1. East Carolina (L)

    2. Niners (L)

    Woof.

    3. Titans +3.5 over Falcons: The Falcons defense has not been great, and whatever the Titans offense is going to be with Mettenberger, there’s not a whole lot of film on it. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Tennessee offense gets a spark from the backup, and on the other side of the ball, the defense has been playing quite well. The whole team is likely to come in sharp after last week’s clunker. Nobody’s giving them a chance here. I’d love to make this my pick of the week but not with this wonky Cheddar line when it’s up to 6.5 IRL.

    4. Chiefs -2.5 over Steelers: I guess I’ll make the Chiefs my pick of the week. Last week at Heinz Field the Steelers had ceremonies commemorating their Super Bowl XLIII win over the Cards with a bunch of guys from that team in town for the regular season rematch between the teams. I feel like this sort of thing is underrated in terms of how it will inspire a team. Either way, though, that was a bad spot for the Cards. I’ll take the Chiefs D today over the Landry Jones show at Arrowhead and pray that Coach Poppers can scheme up at least a FG for the win and cover.

    5. Jets +9 over Pats:

    Bet
    nEw England
    isN’t
    Going undefeated
    tHis
    seAson … go
    jetZ
    wIn

    6. Cowboys +3.5 over Giants: The Giants are all kinds of banged up. The Cowboys won’t be starting Weeds today. It is pretty much a law of the NFC East that whenever two teams from the division face off, the team with the worse record wins.

    Preemptive WOOF on all of this. Happy Sunday to all.

  • PJD19

    jags over bills essay

    Bills are a bit of a team in turmoil. They have a ton of injuries and I don’t see them being able to create much offense. It will be interesting to see how Rex’s team responds to the criticism they’ve received for largely underperforming all year, especially on D. I expect an ugly, boring 9:30 AM EST game, which makes London wonder why they want an NFL team. The Bills are undisciplined and tend to play emotional and out of control, yet sort of flat and uninspired – weird combo. Jags win.

  • limaontinder

    Browns
    Chargers
    Oregon State
    Pats
    Panthers
    Falcons – essay

    As someone mentioned down below, the idea here in a Falcons essay pick is that the Browns managed to throw up some decent yards and points against the Titans so the Falcons, going down to TN with many many many more weapons than the Browns, should be able to put up many many many more. Wins have been built off less rationale than that. Many many many many more losses have been accumulated putting money on games with nothing but this as a rationalization.

  • DQuatts

    USC
    Ohio State
    Tampa Bay
    Detroit
    New England
    Miami**

    **I believe this Miami Dolphins team is highly underrated. After an awful start to the season and a change in coaching, this team is starting to show a heartbeat. They are starting to care and realize that the AFC is up for grabs at this point with regards to wild card spots. Taking care of business at home against an inferior Houston team that shows lack of leadership will put Miami in a place of ‘potential’ halfway through the season. The challenges Houston has experienced at the QB position will show dramatically in this game. Lock down Miami for a two-score victory. Go Phins….

  • bupalos

    Utah for bup

  • Tim Butler

    USC -3.5 over utah – this line is currently all the way up to 6.5.
    jets +9 over PATS
    falcons -3.5 over TITANS
    DOLPHINS -4 over texans
    GIANTS -3.5 over cowboys
    ESSAY: jags +6 over bills (London)

    A game that is so bad, they’ll only show it on Yahoo. This is a week that has seen rumors of Percy Harvin’s retirement, multiple Bills defenders publicly complaining about Rex’s play calling, and a Fred Jackson car accident where he was reportedly, according to old reliable TMZ, drag racing Marshawn Lynch. Not a good week for Bills past and present. EJ shouldn’t be a 6 point favorite on a neutral field against anybody. Plus the Jags have the advantage of playing in London every year. I think the Bills win or lose a close one.

  • Matt Borcas

    Texas A&M + 6 over Ole Miss
    Utah +3.5 over USC

  • Squeeky picks

    Essay : nc st
    Others
    Northwestern
    Bc
    Uconn

  • Nick

    Toledo
    Idaho
    Saints
    Falcons
    AP: Pats
    EP: Tennessee Vols +15 at Alabama

    The Vols are not your average 3-3 team. They have had some gut wrenching losses this year showing an inability to close out games in the fourth quarter just like the Cleveland Browns. But they beat Georgia last week which was huge for the coach and players. I like to imagine this was a good week for the team, filled with laughter and diligent practicing and preparation for Alabama. Tennessee plays tough, their largest margin for defeat is 7 pts, so I have hard time seeing a blowout. Alabama has been on a nice run in the last several weeks so it makes sense they take a step back and are forced to win a tough one today. Alabama’s playing LSU next week, so a potential trap game if that’s still a thing these days. I like the Vols to cover here.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Toledo -14
    Kentucky +11.5

    Kanick, I will post my NFL picks later today or tomorrow am

  • AUBURN +5.5.
    INDIANA +16. I could see an upset.
    MIZZOU -3.

    I’ll use my no essay week this week and take Duke with the Cheddar. $$$
    DUKE +2.5

    • BROWNS. In it every week, so long as the defense starts to play a gap scheme and not a chaos scheme.
      PATRIOTS. Brady continues the “fuck you” tour.

  • The Iron Sheik

    Arkansas
    Psu
    Tex am
    Msu
    Pats
    Osu***

    This one is simple. When a team finds their identify they can then focus on the task at hand- defend the national championship. With Jt at the helm again this team truly sees him as the leader of this Buckeyes squad from how they block, tackle, and swag. Now I am sorry for the slang but all urbs talked about last year was juice and trained those boys like some pit bulls with no daddy. Well it worked and they rolled there way to the championship. So now it is time to put that chip back on their shoulder and open a can of whoop ass on Rutgers. Go bucks!

  • Its Only Money

    I am going to start with a couple college plays and the all play to start and then will be back to finish up later.

    NIU -28
    Toldeo -14
    All play I’ll take the points this week and play the Jets +9

    I’ll be back later.

    • Its Only Money

      I’ll add the Browns +5.5
      Falcons -3.5
      Essay – Being on vacation I will take a pass but go with Colts -5

  • Chris Schroeder

    -14.5 Bowling Green @ Kent State
    – 23 Navy vs. Tulane
    – 29 Marshall vs. North Texas
    – 21.5 Houston @ Central Florida
    All Play: + 9 New York Jets @ New England Patriots
    Essay Pass for the week: – 3.5 Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans

  • 1) Illinois +7
    2) UTEP +6
    3) Washington +18
    4) Army +9
    5) Patriots -9 (All-Play)
    6) UNC -17

    Prior to lat week’s 44 point explosion vs. Syracuse, UVA was averaging around 20 points a game (FCS games). Aside from the opening game of the year against South Carolina, UNC is near 40+ points each week (FCS games). UNC leads the ACC in total yardage and total scoring. One team in this match-up has shown the ability to consistently score while the other hasn’t. In addition, last week, UNC found the deep pass and UVA is the ACC’s worst in pass defense. Now, UVA’s schedule has been much tougher than UNC’s schedule, likely skewing the production numbers to date,

    That said, what limited action I have seen from UNC this season, I like their desire to run as many plays as possible. I believe over the course of the game they’re going to find multiple plays that expose the UVA defense and that the UVA defense aren’t going to be able to stop, even though they know what is coming. I don’t believe the UVA offense is going to have the same sustained success against the UNC defense.

    Much like last week’s essay pick for me, while I could absolutely see UVA keeping it close for a half and maybe even a little into the third, I just don’t see UVA’s defense keeping UNC within 17 by the end of the game.

  • Petefranklin

    CMU and Reno for a point each

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Jets

    Rams

    Wazzu

    Ohio State

    Texas A&M

    Toledo

    Staying with these guys because they’re good, especially on defense. UMass isn’t. It’s a road game in front of, what, 500 people? UMass is off a loss to Kent (!) at home (!!!!) and should be fired up early based on that and Toledo’s ranking and growing profile. But trust me that UMass has a total joker of a coach and a bad roster against a team that’s far from home and in a look ahead spot but also is just revving things up. Rockets by 4 at the half, 24 at the end.

  • Concierge

    CMU ESSAY
    PSU
    KENT
    JETS
    EMU
    INDIANA

    Ball state has won the last 5 in a row against CMU. Well that all comes to an end. This is pretty simple. NFL QB in Cooper Rush vs a porous Defense in ball state.. Tied in with one of the conferences best Defenses vs a freshman QB? I like it. CMU will roll in this one. Coach Bonomego played a CMU so he knows how important it is to end the losing streak to BSU. Not to mention that CMU has covered in 8 straight games. They are also 14-2 ATS on the road the last 16 games. Fire up chips.

    • Petefranklin

      Lembo is playing for next year.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Penn st -6.5
    Jags +6
    Chargers -4
    Lions +2.5
    Pats -9
    Essay Atl +3.5
    no essay week for me

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      Switching all play to jets +9 feel like that defense can keep it within a TD

      ALSO please change my chargers pick to colts -5

  • zarathustra

    ECU -3 over Temple ( L)

    Patriots -9 over Jets

    Florida St -6 over Georgia Tech

    Dalvin Cook vs shitty Georgia Tech defense.

    Syracuse +6.5 over Pitt

    Yet another road game for Pitt, coming off another close game–this time in ot at Georgia Tech–and I can’t see giving this many points to a Syracuse team fighting to get back in the win column.

    Wazzu +7 over Arizona

    Wazzu has been too good to me in real life this year not to take the 7. There’s a chance Arizona is a bit underrated this year and they are home so that is certainly a risk, but I think it might be starting to happen with Mike Leach and think they’ll keep close.

    Kent St +14.5 over Bowling Green***

    I think it generally understood at this point that the best way to stop an offense like Bowling Green’s is with a physical defense that will slow them down, preventing big plays where they start racing up the field between plays and pushing the tempo. This Kent State defense can do that. Moreover, as Concierge pointed out last week the Bowling Green is really not good. Jumping in front of Bowling Green didn’t work out last week, but I think now is the time. Kent is finally getting competent qb play and moving the ball and that goes such a long way in changing the complexion of a team built like this by not only keeping the defense off the field, but by keeping them off short fields. I think they can win this outright.

    • zarathustra

      Welp….

  • jpftribe

    After a few weeks of playing here, I’ve come to the inevitable realization that seemingly important things like research, consensus bets, ATS records mean very little in the hands of a dope. Hence my astounding 47th place in this venerable contest. Time to change things up, and go big or go home.

    I have gotten paid pretty decently over the years to negotiate stuff. Once upon a time, many years ago, I attending one of those wanker suit infested business seminars in NYC. Unfortunately, I was one of the wanker suits at the time. Most of it was blah, blah, rah, rah corporate speak with words like synergy, obsfucation and partnership being used as often as ‘and’, ‘it’ and ‘I’.

    However, the main speaker turned out to be a great guy, Herb Cohen. Herb was a professional negotiator for important things like wars and hostages held by governments. And Herb’s mantra was “you gotta care, but not t-h-a-t much”. Here’s a guy dealing with insane leaders, political agendas, media spin, with lives in the balance saying caring too much leads to bad outcomes. He goes further stating the worst person to negotiate for yourself is you.

    So realizing the depth of trouble I am in here, I turned to some outside help in the form of my 18 year old. Why? Because he cares, but not that much, in fact hardly at all. But he knows football along with about 9 other sports he follows regularly. His first two picks:
    Giants – Because Cassel is hurt and Dez is questionable.
    Vikings – Because Detroit has a lousy defense and Stafford is being benched, or maybe not.

    When we get to the Jets /Pats all play, he says Pats. I say ’But they are giving nine points?’ Upon his reply of ‘What does that mean?’ I realize the profound flaw in my new methodology. When playing cheddar, DO NOT apply corporate wanker suit theory. Because, upon reflection, I have never been successful using corporate wanker suit theory. In fact my best moments are doing the homework, deciding what I think is right and living with the consequences.
    Picks:
    Giants – OK, I’ll give him this one
    Vikings – and this one too
    SDSU – Like getting points here
    Bills – Jags in London, LOL.
    Jets – Hate having to play this game, but gotta take the points

    And Essay POTY – Penn State. OSU line against Maryland=32. OSU line Against PSU=18. This line =6.5. That and an old friend showed up at dinner last night wearing a Nittany Lion shirt in honor of his freshman son, when he is a ND alum. It’s sign I tell you, a sign.

    • jpftribe

      And BTW, the Google entry form incorrectly states Jets MINUS 9 against the pats.

    • jpftribe

      Dammit, I just realized SDSU played last night and won big, ugh……

      I’ll take Falcons of the Atlanta variety instead.

    • Wanker Suit POTY!!

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Please change my Auburn pick to Toledo.

  • Jmacdaddio

    2015 Cheddar Bay Week 8

    Cincinnati -13
    Penn St. -6.5
    Florida International -13
    Nebraska -7.5
    Patriots -9
    Chargers -4 (Essay)

    The Niners must have been tired from securing my POTY win on Sunday, because they sure didn’t show up last night. This week the Chargers host the Raiders in a battle for AFC West second fiddle status. The Chargers have a decent team, and gave the Packers a run for the money on the frozen tundra recently. Isn’t this about the time of the season where they start to run the table anyway? This is a winnable game vs. the Raiders, worthy of a three Cheddar point pick.

  • Capitalgg

    [All-play] Jets +9 @ Patriots: When you have no idea which way to go, the rules say take the points. In reality, I’d rather be far, far away from this game.
    1. Ohio -3 @ Buffalo: MACtion play of the week.
    2. Florida St. -6 @ Georgia Tech: The Ramblin’ Wreck is more train wreck than fine machine this year.
    3. Falcons -3.5 @ Titans: No Marcus for the Titans.
    4. Toledo -14 @ UMass: The complete list of good teams in college football this year: Toledo, Houston. END.

    So after averaging a litte over a point per week over the first 3, I’m suddenly rubbing up against the red line. Hey, I’m as surprised as you are! I’ve gone on a run of hitting my essays and really, really should have hit 1 of the last 3 weeks with my POTY, but I chickened out each time despite knowing that the games get harder as the season gets longer and the lines get tighter. So we are nearing Halloween and I didn’t heed my own advise. Didn’t really like too many games this week. It seems like every NFL game was in the 3.5-5.5 “Vegas trap” range. So I’m keeping my POTY in my pocket another week.

    But Clemsoning is apparently no longer a thing. Dabo Swinney’s retired the verb. Clemson has not lost to an unranked opponent since November 2011. In a way, this makes me incredibly sad. Not because I root against Clemson but simply because something like Clemsoning is “fun” for everyone who doesn’t specifically root for Clemson. Alas, Dabo has some sort of magic powers that keep the purple and orange engaged to whip up on the unranked. Therefore, I’ll continue to trust that Dabo will mercifully destroy the Al Golden era in Miami and Clemson -6.5 will be more than enough as the Tigers win by double digits.

  • Petefranklin

    Mike, what’s the Stanford line? Hook or not?

    • Stanford -18.
      (I dont know what hook means. Is that the half point like 3.5, 7.5, 10.5 (or 9.5, 6.5, 2.5)?)

      • Petefranklin

        It should have been 17 or 17.5 IMO.
        You are correct, half point.

  • FTCMikeD

    @Buffalo +3 over Ohio

    @Sparty -16 over Indiana

    Bills -6 over Jags in London

    Squeelers +2.5 over @Chiefs

    AP: Jets +9 over @Pats

    *****

    Falcons fans will take over Nashville this Sunday (do they do that?) as the Falcons have too many weapons for the Titans to handle. If the Browns can put up 28 on the Titans, expect the Falcons to light it up. They have the amazing trio of Ryan, Freeman, and Jones – much better versions of whatever the Browns have. Overlook that Saints game – twas a rival, away on the Thurs. That will have been 10 days ago by the time they play on Sunday.

    The Falcons D is going to be licking their chops in order to get at Mettenberger as Mariota is out. From NFL.com “The second-year signal caller boasts a big arm, but struggled at times last season with slow reads and questionable throws into traffic”, never a good sign. And one final point on it, the line is now -6, so this is a pretty good value here at 3.5. Take the Falcons.

  • Petefranklin

    Late essay, but over an hour before kick.
    San Diego State +5 over Utah State

    I liked this game a lot even before I heard that Billy Walters hit the Aztecs at +6 around town.The public likes the Aggies by a 2-1 count after looking at last weeks results vs Boise but the Aztecs are being underrated here. First off USU won the game vs Boise by way of turnovers, 7 total. That game was a huge accomplishment for a mountain West team, beating Boise St as a 7.5 point dog.That game was in Logan though and they will not be welcomed tonight to the Murph. Last week the Aztecs manhandled a pretty good San Jose St team in the Bay area.They are too physical for the Aggies and I expect them to win by over a touchdown behind Rocky Longs powerful defense.

    • Petefranklin

      Wanted to POTY it all week….I suck!

  • CLEVTA

    1. La LAff (L): Kanick, plz confirm u got my tweet on Tuesday on this. Never got a confirmation but am not a cheater so I’m including this L
    2. Army +9: Rice is 108th in def rush ypc D vs an all run option O in Army is a huge mismatch
    3. Jags +6: EJ Manuel-Woods-Hogan led offense should never lay 6 to any tm on neutral field
    4. Lions +2.5: Bad line. Vikes were -2.5 in Minn wk2 v Detroit and its the same line 5 weeks later in Detroit? Makes no sense. Their power ratings have not adjusted a full 6 points that quickly
    5. Pats -9
    6. USC (all Play) -3.5: I love how all I hear is that this line makes no sense blah blah blah. Vegas isnt being tricky here. Based on advanced metrics, yds/play, etc they absolutely deserve to be favorites and 3.5 is a gift for the Trojan backers here. In fact, in my yrds/play model I actually have USC as a 14 pt favorite. USC offense is 6th nationally, Utah 51st in off yds/play. On D USC is 48th and Utah 39th so it’s pretty even on the D side of things. One thing that can’t be denied is that USC is way more talented. Booker is awesome for Utah but he can’t do it all for that offense to keep up with all those weapons on USC. Lets face it, when USC lost to Washington two weeks ago, they did it knowing their HC was a drunken mess and displaying his inner Frank the Tank. I wouldn’t blame them for that loss. And their other 2 Ls have come to quite possibly 2 of the top 8-10 teams in the country and led at ND in the 2nd half. No shame in that loss. Utah’s bubble will be burst on Saturday

    • CLEVTA

      correction, USC is essay and Pats is all play

    • i saw the tweet but also the one taking it back, so i wasn’t sure.
      thanks for honesty; cheddar will reward.

      • CLEVTA

        Sorry about that. Was joking on the take back when Laff was down 27-0 in the 2nd. That’s what I get for taking a game out of boredom

  • thatsfine

    USU -5 essay

    SDSU is a +5 dog getting attention and a line moving against public opinion, now down to +4. Talk is the line is inflated due to the Boise win and being the beneficiary of 8 turnovers. But is it really inflated? SDSU comes into this game riding a 3 game win streak allowing only 28 points total. Sounds great, but opponents combined record 7-14. The Aztecs play good defense, excelling at making a mediocre offense look even worse. They are shutting down the run (#10 in FBS), though they haven’t faced a great running team yet and the only team they’ve faced with a winning record is Cal. SDSU has a solid run game, but a weak passing game. Maxwell Smith is completing 49% of his passes and he hasn’t faced a really good defense until this game. The Aggies are the more complete team. USU defense is ranked #20 overall and #7 vs. the run, and it is pretty obvious the strategy will be to stop Donnell Pumphrey and make Smith pass to win, which will be pretty painful to
    watch. USU is more battle tested than SD, having hung in there vs. Utah and UW, and blasting Boise State last week. No way they get 8 turnovers like last week, but they won’t need that many.

    • thatsfine

      Damn. When Pete Franklin name dropped some guy in Vegas I’ve never heard of, I should have known USU was in trouble. Let’s try to salvage a few points with:
      UMass +14
      Vanderbilt +2.5
      Boise -34.5
      Jets +9

    • Mistake on the Troy line — should be Troy -3.5. Apologies.

  • jdoepke

    Knocking this out early today because it’s family movie night and the 5 year old wants Return of the Jedi in anticipation of the new Star Wars that’s still 2 months away (proud dad).

    I think maybe there are still some points on the table from week 6, spreadsheet has me lower than I thought and looks like several players have games that are missing. Not sure if something I did or the form…anyway, here we go with this weeks’s picks.

    Pats – 9 (All Play)
    Miami +6.5
    Western Kentucky +16.5
    Northwestern +7.5
    USC – 3.5 (really wish this was 3)

    Essay:
    Vandy +3

    It’s homecoming in Nash-Vegas, it kicks at 4pm local, crowd will be ready. Oh and the line makes no sense. How is Vandy, a 2-4 team only getting 3 vs Mizzou? 81% of bets on Mizzou but money is 50-50. I take the points and look for Vandy to pull off the upset outright. Vandy 19 – Mizzou 17

    • I think your Vandy call is spot on. Mizzou’s frosh QB is going to throw picks. Lot of Mizzou folks running around Nashville and they do not look particularly inspirational.

  • pateslvrblk

    My picks are LSU, Toledo, Bowling Green, Jets, Panthers, and Cardinals***. Essay to follow.

    • pateslvrblk

      Was quite irritated by the essay misfire last week so let’s get back on track with a rock solid team with a top-tier coach who was embarrassed last week playing on a national stage with a legit home field advantage. Bruce Arians was back in Pittsburgh last week and he could not have not wanted to crush the (first) organization who cast him aside. But who knew he needed to game plan for a third string qb and wide receiver coming off suspension. Guess here is that had Arians known that it was going to be the Landry Jones/Martavus Bryant show, things might have gone differently. No surprises this week however: he gets the Suggs-Pitta free version of the Ravens which is to say, a shell of the Ravens we usually see. Sure it’s the same uniforms but the Ravens just lost backtoback to the Niners and Browns. The Browns! Josh McCown and a receiving corps featuring no less than THREE 5-8 wideouts racked up 422 pass yards. Can you imagine what Carson Palmer (currently PFF’s top rated QB) to Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd will do to that defense? I can. I imagine they’ll cover the spread and have a good shot at hanging 50.

  • Utah +3.5 vs. USC
    Idaho +2 vs. UL Monroe
    Saints +5 vs. Colts
    Connecticut +13 vs. Cinci
    AP: Jets -9 vs. Pats

    **Essay**Texas Tech +14.5 vs. Oklahoma
    Paradox of choice is real. You can numb yourself to your own intuition after pondering far too many scenarios. This week, I am victim. I’ve watched far too many Say Yes to the Dress episodes when a bride walks in and sheepishly admits to having tried on over 100 dresses before her arrival to Kleinfelds. The resolution is usually to make a custom dress from the top of this one, the bottom of another, dyed with the blood of virgins, all to the tune of $75k.
    Cheddar Bay does not allow for this luxury. After modeling out a few rounds of picks, I turned to the talking heads, or rather, typing fingers of people who worship talking heads, or vice versa, or both. Either way, I tend to seek out information against my thoughts, and I was inundated. More than I asked for, really.
    Who do you trust when your intuition has been made dull? You trust no one, not experts, not money, and especially not the public. You must dig deep and reignite the light inside of yourself. Because if you can’t do it for six reality football picks, lord help you with the graver choices you’ll inevitably make in life.
    Survey says – I’m taking Tech to cover in Sooner-land. I imagine Oklahoma is feeling pretty proud of themselves this week after shutting out Kansas, but Texas Tech has the film and can be pretty scrappy when they want to be. They really should have beat TCU. Oklahoma is back in Norman for the first time since Texas whooped ‘em. I’m wagering there’s a fear inside them of another Texas school, the one that almost beat TCU, and makes guns with their fingers, that the Red Raiders will exploit.

  • super p forever:

    tennessee +15 alabama
    clemson -4.5 miami
    texas tech +14 oklahoma
    ohio state -21 rutgers
    ap: pats -9 jets
    essay: indiana +16 msu

    After having the point-spread concept explained to me AGAIN as we looked through these picks, I (the lesser half of this team) saw only one option for which game to essay: Cavs vs Bulls this coming Tuesday.

    A lengthy debate about why the beginning of the NBA season being upon us was the perfect way to disrupt Cheddar Bay forever ensued, and through sheer force of logic, I won out.

    Nothing…will ever be the same! (Just like in Incredible Hulk #377, my favorite single comic book issue of all time. Look it up.)

    Sadly, not the PDF, nor the spreadsheet form, nor the app, nor the instagram, nor the in-person ballot box at kanicki’s house – all of which you must use to have your picks verified – had Cavs-Bulls listed as an option.

    Leaving us with MSU-Indiana, which I actually know something about, having seen the end of last week’s MSU-Michigan game.

    Keying in on a few elements from that MSU performance told me that MSU was playing in both games. Further research was abandoned after such a eureka moment.

    btw the most notable thing about Michigan State’s pedestrian victory last weekend was being unable to watch the replay at all once you know that the guy who made the big play isn’t celebrating on the bottom of that pile-up, but rather writhing in pain because his hip doesn’t live where it’s supposed to anymore.

    What a golden memory for him and his family and the school-sanctioned surgeon and then probably also a nurse or two. (Football players don’t need anesthesiologists because they’re so TOUGH.)

    • hey! “ANY of which you may use to have your picks verified..”

      and yes, that guy at the bottom of the pile. i don’t know but i think we’re going to learn that he was the victim of friendly fire there. broken or dislocated hip under several tons of football players with 300 lb bombs dropping on you is no place to be. (except for maybe after scoring your generation’s most memorable touchdown.)

  • cwonder23

    Temple +3 @ ECU (win)
    EMU +28 @ NIU
    Indiana +16 @ MSU
    Browns +5.5 @ Rams
    All Play: Jets +9 @ Patriots
    Essay: Toledo -14 @ UMASS
    Matt Campbell has his Toledo Rockets playing some inspired football anchored by the 7th best scoring defense in the country. Toledo has a great ability to keep its opponents out of the end zone when in the red zone. UMASS is not any good and I’m actually surprised to see this spread this low. I don’t anticipate UMASS seeing a lot of scoring chances and Toledo will be motivated to run up the score to keep pace in the polling against the major conferences. One has to wonder how many more games Campbell coaches for Toledo as it is likely he will get poached to a bigger program. I like Toledo in this one, big. Toledo 42 – UMASS 14.

  • mmmmsnouts

    ALL PLAY: Patriots -9 vs. Jets

    Texas A&M +6 at Ole Miss
    UConn +13 at Cincinnati
    Utah +3.5 at USC
    Saints +5 at Colts

    ESSAY: Panthers -3 vs. Eagles

    I’ve been thinking about my struggles in this contest. I wonder if I’m not meant to be an every-week handicapper. There have been some weeks where I didn’t feel good about any of my picks because nothing on the board jumped out at me. Those typically are the weeks where I get crushed in Cheddar.

    This isn’t one of those weeks. Ole Miss is hideously banged up. Cincinnati isn’t that good. UConn is downright frisky and I love their QB. The Colts put all their eggs in the “beat the Patriots” basket and might completely derail after that insane fake punt call. I don’t fear Ryan Fitzpatrick coming up with a cheap cover at the end of the Pats game.

    And my essay pick: I mean, if I get to bet against Sam Bradford on the road on a short week against a legit good team, and I only have to lay a field goal, I’m doing that every time. Eagles are crazy overvalued after Monday night when they didn’t even play that well. Are the Panthers the best team in the NFC? Could be.

    • all i can say is i used your essay last inadvertently under the bojaxhiu theorem for great profit and i thank you.

      • mmmmsnouts

        It was a nice few weeks where you could profit off the false “end of the Alabama dynasty” narrative.

      • mmmmsnouts

        FYI – last-minute change from Utah +3.5 to Louisiana Tech -7. Yes I’m riding with Skip Holtz. Jesus take the wheel.

  • Uncle D

    MSu is coming off of an explosive victory at UM. Indiana is coming off of a disappointing last minute loss to Rutgers. I believe MSU will get the W, but I think they likely will continue their streak of not covering. Ive watched indiana 3 of the last four weeks, and they can put up points in a hurry as they are tops in the big ten in scoring and passing. RB howard is out, but i plan to see the ball in the air.
    I’m going with IU to cover and likely give MSU a scare as they try to stay undefeated in anticipation of a showdown with the bucks !

    IU
    Rutgers
    PSU
    CMU
    Pats
    Browns

  • trashycamaro

    Niners +6.5 over seahawks

    • trashycamaro

      Give me Tennessee +15 over Bama. The TN losses have been very close and I think they can keep it within two TDs here.

      • trashycamaro

        Niners +6.5 over Seahawks (L) Don’t play Thursday games. Don’t play Thursday games. Don’t play Thursday games. Don’t play Thursday games. Don’t play Thursday games. Don’t play Thursday games. Don’t play Thursday games.

        Tennessee +15 over Alabama (W) 2TDs+ was waaaaay too big of a line. Tennessee isn’t great, but their 3 (now 4) losses have all been very close and, with the exception of OT against Arkansas, against quality teams.

        Dolphins -4 over Texans Dolphins resurgence is for real! OK, maybe not 100%, but the Texans are really bad you guys.

        All Play NYJ +9 over Pats I might not have played this without the all play, but I feel pretty confident in the NYJ ability to keep the game close, and with Marshall around, strong back door cover potential. The one real concern here is that Fitzpatrick is terrible when the cold wind starts to pick up (why he didn’t work out in Buffalo after that hot start) and I don’t know when that is coming.

        Essay: Falcons -3.5 over Titans I know the Falcons are away…but Mettenberger? Against a shiny Falcons defense that has some pass rush and a top 5 cover corner? The Titans have a top 10 DVOA defense, but they are not stopping Freeman and Julio. Meanwhile, Atlanta has a middling defense (20), but stopping Tennessee’s 27th ranked offense starting a backup QB and wihout a quality RB or WR shouldn’t pose too much of a problem. Titans could get a boost against the Falcons’ 27th ranked special teams…if they were not ranked 25th themselves. I have no doubt the Falcons offense can run over the defense even with Morgan and Casey around, and the defense can slow down the Mettenberger-led attack.

        Giants -3.5 over Cowboys Was going to essay this, but I try not to play the Giants. When I am picking I try to avoid volatile players of whom Eli is the poster child for. His highs are high but the low so low, and they are almost completely at random. That said, Cassel running a vanilla scheme and mediocre ‘Boys defense should be enough for the Giants to play through even a rough game from Eli.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 8 Picks

    The bad news is that I suck…the good news is that buried in 40th place I am still only 5 points out of a playoff spot. It’s like Cheddar Bay turned into the NFC East this year.

    Toledo (-14) over UMass – UMass can’t stop anybody and Toledo needs style points. Lots of style points.

    BGSU (-14.5) over Kent – Any BGSU grads on here? Where is the Heisman campaign? Get this kid to NY.

    BSU (-34.5) over Wyoming – Only because I have no clue what happened last week. No shame in losing to Utah State but what was that?

    Colorado (+2.5) over Oregon State – My long nightmare finally ends Saturday night. The Buffs win a conference game.

    AP – Pats (-9) over Jets – Brady wants to play 10 more years. Nodding…

    Essay Pick

    Now it’s personal.

    What is the Cheddar Bay record for most essay misfires with the same team? Aim high kids.

    I still believe in the Seahawks. I saw a ton of good signs last week and sometimes you just need to tip your cap to the MVP of the NFL. Cam was that good on Sunday. Sometimes teams get off to slow starts and they need to see a familiar face to straighten things out. The 49ers are just that team. Wilson outplays Kapernick again and Graham will be the best player on the field tonight not named Phil Dawson.

    I can only think of one reason why San Francisco has any reason even staying in this game. The problem is that the talents of Eric Mangini are being wasted as he stands on a sideline thousands of miles away from his rightful place in Cleveland. That’s another discussion though for another time. I hope you choke on your strawberry daiquiri watching your Seahawks win tonight Holmgren you dickhole.

    Seattle (-6.5) over San Francisco

  • thatsfine

    Georgia Southern +6
    A great, young rivalry that has transferred well from the top of the FCS to the top of the Sun Belt. One point.

  • 1. East Carolina -3 over Temple

    2. Niners +6.5 over Seahawks

    One point each please.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    Historically a lack of cable and working weekends has kept
    me from being as big of a football fan as I have aspired to be. It is not that I
    cannot commit to being a sports fan. I have watched the last 7 Tour de Frances
    in their entirety (though it is really part sporting event, part history lesson
    and part Rick Steve-ish travel series), yet alas one cannot pay to only watch
    football on tv like one can with cycling. This year, my inaugural year in
    Cheddar Bay, I knew something had to change. I had to still work and I was not
    going to start paying for cable, yet I wanted to be part of the fun, the play
    by play drama, the heart ache, the nail biting and of course the jubilation.
    Enter ESPN Gamecast. Sure it is only lines on a cartoon field with descriptions
    of plays that I am only starting to understand (ie Lions loss of the ball on
    the 1 yard line on 10/5 resulting in a touchback for Seattle-that resulted in
    an hour on a Wikipedia football lesson spiral), but I still get the thrill of the game. I think it has become my favorite website (other than this one of course). Well this weekend it is going to be my friend Gamecast and me together for every vote on my list. Now enough fun, onto business of football voting. Last week my plan was to take every team with a 4-5 week streak of not beating the spread to win. That worked but I might have given myself an ulcer. Because every one
    of them beat the spread last week, it left very few teams with such a record.
    This week I was thinking the opposite might also work. Every team that has
    beaten the spread consistently should have a fall. This week Central Michigan
    looked like the best candidate for failure. I loved the line on covers.com “Central
    Michigan is the best ATS wager in the country.” (http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=435252). Hee hee hee. Right up my alley. A 7-0 record against the spread has to end sometime, and I am just the essayist to try to guess when. Ball State, I may not know much about you, but I know somewhere you can find 7.5 points.

    Ball State +7.5 vs Central Michigan

    Eastern Michigan + 28 vs Northern Illinois

    Old Dominion +13 vs Florida International

    Seahawks -6.5 vs 49ers

    Patriots -9 vs Jets (I hate this game, both teams have a decent record against the spread, but it has been longer since the Jets couldn’t cover than the Pats)

    Chiefs +/- ? vs Steelers (I don’t care that there is no spread yet, I just like their records ATS)

    • If this isn’t smart tout play then I don’t know what.

  • Dave Borcas

    Seattle -6.5 tonight

  • cwonder23

    Temple +3 @ ECU for one cheddar point please.

  • I’ll take the other side of Zara’s pick, will take Temple tonite as no-essay three pointer.

  • zarathustra

    ECU -3 over Temple (one point)
    I like Temple as much as the next guy, but I love this spot with ECU too much to pass up. Going back to ’12 they’ve only lost 3 games at home–Navy in ’12, Va Tech in ’13, and UCF on a last minute hail mary last year. Temple struggled earlier this year at UMASS and after a solid start last year fell apart down the stretch when they started facing good teams on the road. Also, consider that Temple came from behind in the 4th quarter on Saturday and now on short rest is getting on some godforsaken bus for several hours to play a Thursday night game in a pretty tough environment. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Jawad Williams, who is basically the entire Temple offense, might need a bit more time to recover after 31 carries Saturday. Moreover, last year Temple beat ECU at home after finishing +5 in turnover margin. That’s pretty fluky and puts ECU in a very nice revenge spot.

  • HitTheHorns

    1) 49ers +6.5. This smells like an essay, but man losing an early week essay really does put a damper on the weekend. Seattle is donezo. One point for now.

    • HitTheHorns

      2) Troy +3.5 – three points. Essay Skip.

      • Typo on the line. It is Troy -3.5.
        Sorry for making the mistake.

        • HitTheHorns

          No worries cancel Troy. I only picked bc of the line. I am doing this from a piece of notebook paper at the Pittsburgh Zoo. We have our niece today on babysitting duty. Kids are fun!
          Give me USC -3.5 for one pt. I will post essay and other picks tomorrow.

          • HitTheHorns

            3) Washington +18
            4) Jaguars +6

          • HitTheHorns

            5) Patriots -9 Essay. My obvious shortcoming as someone who picks games is I can never find a reason to justify picking a big favorite. This would always be a Jets pick or a stay away for me. So like a guy who thinks he can try crack once and be OK, let’s see what all the fuss is about. As I sit here, this line has pushed past the “key number” of 7.5 and sits at Pats -7. No Dion Lewis, who has been great for Brady. Jets can rush the passer and a week of tape to study the flaws of the backup LT playing for Nate Solder. According to Fantasysupercontest.com , Jets are #1 picked team receiving 854 selections; Pats are lowest at only 100 selections. This has all the familiar symptoms of not only a Jets cover, but an outright win to ruin my wife’s chance at $4k in her survivor pool. FUCK IT.
            6) Raiders +4

          • Man you almost caught the falling knife. I know this was a loss but FWIW I’ve really been enjoying your essays lately.

          • HitTheHorns

            A 55 yard Nick Folk FG from a 7 point week. I normally have to take my dogs on a long walk after Browns games to try and clear my head, so I didn’t even see the end of the game. Seriously tho – if a team is laying 10, and the public is on their side, what is the formula to bet that team? Clearly has to be one, because they cover sometime. I just don’t see it and don’t have the magic formula for it…the folks on here that seem to do this for a living never risk big picks on Pats -9 or Baylor -35 or whatever.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    49’ers
    UCLA
    Memphis
    Patriots
    Auburn
    **** Utah ****

    • actovegin1armstrong

      **** Utah ****
      The number 3 ranked team in the nation is an underdog to an un-ranked team with a 3-3 record. USC has not looked terrific even in their wins.
      Much is being made of the USC home field advantage. Utah is 7 of 8 ATS on the road, and the USC crowd oftentimes rocks The exulted Coliseum more like deaf valley than Death Valley.
      USC has much more depth and talent, but so what, they can only play 11 at a time. I would like to use The University of Texas as an example, (UT has talent and depth out the WAZOO, well…. and oftentimes out the door too), they have made a habit of losing to teams with far less talent. USC is following in their respective footsteps, losing to more cohesive, better coached teams.
      Utah’s defensive line shall dominate and they will not just cover, Utah shall win.

      • Petefranklin

        You are on a highly popular public dog there, but I like Utah here even though the power ratings say that USC wins by 10. Don’t know if I can pull the trigger though.

  • ChuckKoz

    Ohio State -21 (at Rutgers)

    Fresno St +17.5 (at Air Force)

    Nebraska -7.5 (vs Northwestern)

    Giants -3.5 (vs Cowboys)

    AP: Jets +9 (at Pats)

    Essay: Falcons -3.5 (at Titans)
    Falcons come in on extra rest (from Falcons only loss of season on a destined to fail Thursday at NOLA). They apparently have a very good coach and possibly the entire backbone to the Seahawks success, which makes me think he will get the guys up to the challenge of rebounding and refocusing in Tennessee. Marriotta may not play or it will be the best scenario that the rookie plays with no practice all week. One thing I did notice, which I don’t know how (or if its necessary to) interpret is that this is Tennessee’s 4th home game in a row. I have never heard or seen of that. And if I were to analyze it, I would point out that they are 0-3 so far as the crowd was apparently not much of a lift. And Atlanta is a pretty short drive, so maybe in a world where Atlanta had sports fans they would even take over the stadium…..but we don’t live in that world. However, we live in a world where the Titans lost to the Browns and the Falcons seem pretty decent this year.

  • ChuckKoz

    a little bummed because i prepped an essay and all for the falcons/titans. how late do you think you will wait to find out Mariotta’s status?

    • Looks open now:
      Falcons -3.5 at Titans

  • Brosef emailed and was in on ArkSt pre-kickoff last night.

    • RDGinCLE

      Preesh