#CheddarBay wk5, Notre Dame -1 at Clemson

All-play: Notre Dame -1 at Clemson, Saturday night.


Cheddar Mobile App.

No really, we have a mobile app for the form.  I just posted a minor ‘how-to’ here.  It’s pretty cool but also, if you’ve tried to use the normal form from a phone, it ain’t great.  This will help.


Cheddar policy statement on line moves.

From the Executive Committee: “At times a line will move significantly due to an unforeseen contingency such as a mid-week injury or unexpected absence or presence of a key player (see Jameis Winston, FSU v. Clemson 2014, Drew Brees, Saints v. Panthers, Sept. 2015).  In these situations, the Executive Committee will, in its discretion, revise the contest line prior to the game and cancel all picks based on the original line.”

We looked at making a strict “if a line moves three points due to player personnel, etc.” rule but decided these are rare events and can be adjudicated as they arise. Personally, I think last week’s line move was somewhat of a maneuver by the books to get players in on the ‘bargain’ and in on the Panthers against the ‘weakened’ Saints… when in truth Brees was a bag of suck all year and the original line of +3 was set known that Brees was doubtful and with the thinking that — Brees or Luke McCown,, six of one, half dozen of the other.  BUT!  That’s beside the point.  Cheddar doesn’t like can’t have our Wednesday line to be way out of step with the kickoff lines.


Lobsterfests!!

Four perfect cards last week plus one with only a push plus SIX seven point slates.  That’s Lobster for Pate, Nick, Whalen, Rhode plus Doep with the Admiral’s Feast. Well done and we must be pretty smart and uniquely so!

Alas, we remain but public rubes. (Almost needless to say our resident wiseguys — TA, PeteF, Squeeky, Frowns — did not share in the party.)


 

Miscellanea.

We have a good piece on the Browns’ uniforms written up by CapGG and strong and lively discussion worth checking out here. This made me laugh. I have to admit the “Cheddar Bob Pickem League” has some pizzazz.

You say you want a franchise QB?  Like a SB level QB?  In his prime?  Well the time is now to buy low on Kaepernick.

Big thanks to HitTheHorns for updating spreadsheet Monday and Thursday.  Jeff (HTH) had offered to help in the bookkeeping and it turns out that I’m back on second shift so updates Monday through Thursday would have waited.  Jeff’s been taking that on and I thank him.  Note too that the spreadsheet itself is uses a series of sheets and lookups that is pretty byzantine so if those updates aren’t quite right it’s likely due to an edit I failed to make prior to handing off.  (It’s me, not him.)


Download (PDF, Unknown)

 

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  • Here is where I am on this question on moving lines personally and it’s important to me that you all know this: I don’t care. I really don’t.

    That being said, some points need to be made and some notions disabused. This is not a Costa Rican book for you to get over on. This is not an LV SuperContest with the resources to monitor lines and newswires 24×7 and an RDBMS to cross reference them against the timestamps of your submittals. It’s a two guys and a dog type operation and a competition among friends and peers and with that, some realistic expectations need to be set in terms of capabilities and limitations.

    I have seen suggestions to let all posted lines stand, to yank games off the board, to post lines not on Wednesday (apparently indicating I should post lines daily and then manage it), to let initial picks placed prior to line moves stand and to kill others (wherein I am to check submittals against the timing of line moves to determine which can and cannot stand).

    Here is fact: We have let initial lines stand and there has been bitching. We have modified lines and there has been bitching.

    Three factors lead me to favor the policy as written in the post above:
    1. The scenario wherein “Aaron Rodgers gets hit by a bus so let’s load up on Teamplayingpackers +15” precludes the do-nothing approach. You’re not ‘being smart’ in that case; you’re cynically manipulating the system and acting unsporting toward the group.
    2. The monitoring, time-stamping, adjudicating these scenarios is foreseeable as an unpleasant and possibly unmanageable chore for me. I vote for the more practical plan in terms of administration.
    3. Finally and importantly, I don’t view the policy as unreasonable or unfair. (And there is some irony in the painstaking attention to concepts of reasonable and fair in contest that just had half of its members lose on Notre Dame Saturday night.)

    If any view the terms as unfair, your entry fee will be cheerfully refunded.

    • trashycamaro

      Just as long as we see consistency on this going forward, I am good with the change. It was just irritating in how it hit in the first week in practice, with a last minute swing that occurred after the majority of games were played. And it is fair (see my 3 pick changes last minute Sunday).

      I wholly understand and am sympathetic to the arguments provided against time stamping (and let me say that I appreciate the immense amount of work Mike and Peter before him put into this).

      I am happy to remain part of the community and enjoy my time here, and I would be writing this even without a 5-0-1 slate this week.

  • TheKardiacKid

    I read this:

    Cheddar policy statement on line moves.

    From the Executive Committee: “At times a line will move significantly due to an unforeseen contingency such as a mid-week injury or unexpected absence or presence of a key player (see Jameis Winston, FSU v. Clemson 2014, Drew Brees, Saints v. Panthers, Sept. 2015). In these situations, the Executive Committee will, in its discretion, revise the contest line prior to the game and cancel all picks based on the original line.” We looked at making a strict “if a line moves three points due to player personnel, etc.” rule but decided these are rare events and can be adjudicated as they arise. Personally, I think last week’s line move was somewhat of a maneuver by the books to get players in on the ‘bargain’ and in on the Panthers against the ‘weakened’ Saints… when in truth Brees was a bag of suck all year and the original line of +3 was set known that Brees was doubtful and with the thinking that — Brees or Luke McCown,, six of one, half dozen of the other. BUT! That’s beside the point. Cheddar doesn’t like can’t have our Wednesday line to be way out of step with the kickoff lines.

    But this directly goes against the stated rules:

    Rules.
    Each week you will make six college or NFL football picks against a point spread. You must pick at least one college and one NFL pick. The Cheddar spreads are locked in Wednesday AM and available as a pdf linked in the sidebar scoreboard. I also tweet out a notice and link when it’s up. (Follow me, 603_brown, on twitter.)

    http://603brown.com/cheddar-bay/cheddar-bay-rules-2015/

    Sorry this seems like a ridiculous correction to make midweek. I was smart enough to realized on Friday night that Luck wasn’t playing and that I could outsmart the line of +9.

    What’s the next set of rules we’re going to decide on the fly?

    I ask the group at large to vote on such large changes.

    A group of friends/acquaintances shouldn’t be making such large decisions.

    • Whether it took “smarts” or not to realize that 9 was a bad line with Luck out, that’s not the kind of “smarts” that this contest is looking to reward or encourage. The Luck situation fit squarely within the Brees/Jameis rule. Nobody was screwed out of anything here. You were on notice of the rule before you made your pick. If your decision to enter this contest was based on being able to profit off of situations like this we’ll be glad to give you your money back.

      • TheKardiacKid

        Hilarious. I guess any opposing opinion or input to the Grand “Executive Committee” is prohibited. I’ll be ending my participation in the competition and keep the money for your troubles. Have fun making it up as you go. You guys ARE Browns fans!!!

        • HitTheHorns

          This really sucks guys.

          • See Mike’s comment above. It’s enough work as it is to administrate this contest. If folks want to get all nasty and quit over such a simple and obviously well-intended rule, I’m sure we’ll get on just fine without them.

      • trashycamaro

        Well, the “smarts” were that 9 was a bad line with Luck in given performance and injury. I was kind of shocked more people were not in on it. I follow the situation very closely as my wife and I built our fantasy strategy on Luck being NFL MVP this year.

        • Understood that that is a completely different thing. Good pick! I’m sorry you didn’t get a point for it.

  • For alrhode.
    —-
    Having trouble logging in to the message board on my phone so here’s my essay for today.

    I listened to Bill Simmons’ new podcasts this week. Although some people like @CleinMPLS hate him, I’m still a fan. So Simmons had interesting “Intel” on the LA NFL team situation. He’s hearing that St Louis could go to LA, be joined by San Diego, then Oakland would move to St Louis.

    Everyone must agree that the St Louis Raiders would be terrible. No one wants that. The Raiders should be in Oakland.

    But imagine if that were true? That would potentially mean the Raiders are playing one of their last seasons by the Bay. The Raiders are playing for the city! I’m all in. Carr, Murray, Cooper. Their battling for Oakland I love it. Raiders are covering this week.

    • CLEinMPLS

      not sure why he thinks I hate Bill Simmons.

  • thatsfine

    Texans +6.5 to finish, thanks.

    • trashycamaro

      In my comment thread, but this is probably a better place:

      I am extremely disappointed in the decision for the line change on the Colts game. This situation is completely different from the situation with Brees last week. Several people made that a POTY AFTER Brees being out was announced. As far as I can tell from the word cloud I am the ONLY person who chose the Jags (and the only one who chose the game) and I chose it well before Luck being out was announced.

      Now I agree at this point no one should be able to change IN TO the Jags at +9, or make a pick their essay or POTY, but having already selected that game the bet should still stand, as it would in the real world.

      TL;DR – situations like Brees/Panthers last week should be avoided. This is not like that situation.

      • I understand your frustration in that you made the pick before it was announced that Luck would be out, and in that way your situation is different than that where someone seeks to capitalize on an injury/absence that’s already well known. But last week’s Luck situation fits squarely within the Brees/Jameis rule that was announced last week. We don’t want Cheddar Bay results turning on obviously garbage lines like that and the decision was made to remove such lines from the contest. I suppose folks can disagree with that decision but it should at least be understandable, and you were on notice of the rule. I’d hate to think that it’s ruining anyone’s ability to otherwise enjoy this contest, but if it is, we can refund your entry fee for you.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    I think I screwed up the sheet by entering my picks twice. Sorry about that I was trying to switch my eagles pick to the Chiefs.

  • PJD19

    Bills over Giants **essay pick**

    It seems thru 3 weeks that the vision of Rex Ryan and Doug Whaley has come to fruition. They wanted to build a “bully” of a team that plays great defense, protects the football and pops enough big plays to put up a decent amount of points. In each game so far this year they’ve looked precisely like a bully – lumping up lesser opponents (colts, dolphins) and getting smacked in the kisser and running home to mom when they play a really good team (patriots). The giants are a team the Bills can beat up on at home. Even without Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy I don’t expect this one to be terribly close.

  • oxr

    All-Play Notre Dame -1 over Clemson.

    • oxr

      Awake in time for Jets -1.5 over Dolphins.

      • oxr

        Bills -5.5 over Giants
        Panthers -3 over Bucs
        Bengals -4 over Chiefs

        Essay Cardinals -7 over Rams

        Time for the old Slate o’ Favorites Kiss o’ Death again. The Cardinals have obviously just been destroying teams thus far, although their long-term plan to cope with Carson Palmer’s inevitable injury remains obscure. Unlike the Patriots, the lines on their games haven’t spiraled into double-digit silliness yet, so I’m still on board, at least until Carson Palmer’s inevitable injury. Meanwhile, the Rams have looked woeful the last couple of weeks in losses to two not-that-great teams – their defensive line is terrifying, but if it can’t get you a win over Kirk Cousins and/or Michael Vick, what’s so great about terrifying people? A repeat of last week’s festival of defensive TDs may be unlikely, but I suppose I’m rooting for a couple of turnovers from Nick Foles here.

  • HitTheHorns

    4) Essay **New Orleans Saints -3**

    Seeing big public numbers on Dallas. Its a shame Romo and Dez went down, because the Cowboys really did have the formula to make a run. Now they have to tread water for two months. Weeden, Weeden, Weeden. We are one play away from Matt Cassell, so not an ideal QB situation. Luke McCown was serviceable enough against Carolina last week that Saints should have enough confidence in him to believe they can win the game (if that’s even a real emotion pro athletes have). Multiple writers pointed out that Thursday was a kitchen sink game for Baltimore – why is nobobdy making that same declaration for the Saints? Is it because the public believes they are already dead and buried? Jimmy Graham tweeting ex-teammates congrats on getting out of town this week sealed this pick for me.

    5) Cleveland Browns +7.5.

    6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

  • CLEinMPLS

    Vandy PK
    Vikings +6.5
    Bills -5.5
    Browns +7.5
    Clemson +1 (All Play)
    Panthers -3 (Essay)

    The Bucs stink. I was paying attn to their game last week since I had the Texans, and the Bucs just don’t finish drives. Reminds me a bit of the Browns last whatever amount of years. Should be a sloppy division game, but Carolina is kind of flying under the radar. I like Cam, I don’t like Jameis. Maybe Jared Allen gives them a bit of a boost off the edge, but probably not. Strikes me as the type of game where the Bucs have a decent first half, but then flame out as the game goes on. Carolina also knows that this is there last game before the bye, and after that their schedule tightens up considerably.

  • DQuatts

    DQUATTS –

    Lions
    Bucs
    Giants
    Texans
    Notre Dame
    Browns**

    **I am still not sure about this Browns team. Occasionally they look great, and often they have these young mistakes and look awful. I think they have a good chance to put together four quarters and control a San Diego team that looks nothing like a complete football team. I expect Johnny to get some time in this game and the Browns to keep it close and have a chance to win it late. A low scoring tight game all around. One time us, Browns!

  • Matt Borcas

    ND -1 over Clemson (ESSAY/ALL-PLAY)
    Losing your starting running back is never a good thing, but Tarean Folston’s season-ending injury has at least led to the emergence of converted WR CJ Prosise, who certainly doesn’t look like a backup. DeShone Kizer looks a lot more comfortable at quarterback with a few games under his belt, and Will Fuller is virtually uncoverable. And on the other side of the ball, ND’s secondary will give Deshaun Watson fits. While Watson is teeming with potential, he really isn’t much more experienced than Kizer, and he’s yet to beat a ranked team. The Irish will take this in an ugly, low-scoring game.

    Browns +7.5 over Chargers
    Giants +5.5 over Bills
    Falcons -6.5 over Texans
    Jets -1.5 over Dolphins
    Eagles -3 over Redskins

  • bupalos

    Missy state +7 @ Texas A&M
    Illinois +6.5 v. Nebraska
    Alabama +2.5 @ Georgia
    ND +1 @ Clemson
    chiefs +4 @ Bengals

    Some Baymates are probably aware that Great Bupalos has been having motivational problems with his essays this year. Yes, and why wouldn’t he? Despite picks that are as fresh and honest as Liesal Von Trapp capering in an alpine meadow, the mindless judgements of the football world send him back again among the ooze and muck at the bottom of the Bay. An old story. A sad descent. An eternal recurrance. From hour to hour we ripe and ripe, and from hour to hour, we rot and rot; and this ill fermentation of life leaves no sure promise of spirits at the end. Such were the thoughts of Bupalos.

    From these depths one asks questions without answers. Can a form-fitting, made to order +7.5 line on the Cleveland Browns register in a brain stewing in the acidic truth of Touchstone? The old voices fade to distant murmurs; “Dance with the one what brung ya,” they say. Yes but in the light of cold, dark, reason we look and say “brought us where?” To this hellish, Haslamish, Tennessee honky-tonk? And “brought us how?” By plinking RR88’s fishhooks into our eyeballs and tugging us along on a nearly endless string of 110lb monofilament disappointment? We’ll have no more on it! It hath made us mad! Bring us the the Vikings. Bring us the Packers. It is a tale told by an idiot.

    Yes, Bupalos was wallowing in this maddening reason, teetering on the brink of that “freedom” that is just another name for “nothing left to lose.” And then in they came. 3 little girls, bearing a cake (below). For lo, Baymates, it was Bupalos’ birthday, and lo, after a fall walk, the low Bupettes (below) had baked him a low cake (baking powder next time, girls). Lowest of all, it was decorated with what averages to a 6 year-old girl’s haphazard conception of what happens down on the lake on Sunday afternoons. Apparently from this perspective, within the Stadium lies an expanded game of 4-square, the field divided into 8 zones, with a player assigned to stand guard in each zone and wait for something to happen. Perhaps for a ball to appear? In the Browns’ case, this may be more a more accurate representation than we would wish. But we digress.

    Upon the heads of half the players perched a Charger-blue dot while upon the other half, a fairly accurate approximation of the new Haslam Passion Rorange. I tell you truly Baymates; this cake looked like the Cleveland Browns. This cake tasted like the Cleveland Browns. It was a cake of slavery and salvation, and it has led us back to where we belong and where we shall stay. Let those who have ears to hear and eyes to see follow this sign, for oft are we called to the highest that is in us by the lowest among us. And so it has been. And so it is. And so it shall be. C. M. F. B. +7.5

  • clayII

    Georgia (-2.5) / Bama

    Just dont think Bama is that great this year. Chubb is a monster and if you put 8 or 9 in the box to stop him you have super efficient (so far) Lambert to distribute (77% comp 6 td 0 picks). Bama D just couldnt get off the field when they needed to at HOME vs Ole Miss when they had a chance to get back in that game. I also think Coker blows. You can argue UGA hasnt been tested yet, ok, but bama was and they failed

    Clemson (+1) / ND

    • clayII

      I should lose points for that essay…

      Bears (+3) / Raiders
      Bucs (+3) / Panthers
      Browns (+7.5) / Chargers
      Rams (+7) / Cards

  • pateslvrblk

    So, my picks are Clemson, Panthers, Raiders, Bengals, Packers and Cardinals***.

    The Cardinals are ‘a team in full’ to borrow from Tom Wolfe and I will draw from that well until they are no longer. But now, after administering the Niners’ season ender, they are in the ascendant. Admittedly, last week’s pick was equally based on the disarray in San Fran’s coaching and personnel and general management departments, but when one team in one week can so thoroughly devastate a team wherein their erstwhile Super Bowl QB becomes a possible candidate to be exiled and become the Browns’ 35th post expansion snap taker…. we have to admire and respect AND ACCEPT THE RIDE FROM the Cards. This week’s problem presents less in the form of the no-TD-scoring, Jeff ‘ILL-RUIN-YOU-KOSAR-OVER-KELLEN-CLEMENS’ Fisher-coaching, diminutive-WR-starting Rams and more in the form of complacency. Fortunately the Cards are at home and unlike the Browns, enjoy playing for their home fans and in a notable triumph of synergy and common sense: neither fans nor players need be embarrassed by their wardrobe.

  • limaontinder

    Notre Dame (all play)
    J E T S Jets Jets Jets
    Cards (Essay)
    Bowling Green
    Falcons
    Chiefs

    This isn’t going to be any more scientific than the Cards are playing great ball, Carson Palmer looks like everyone expected him to when he’s healthy, and the sweetheart Super Bowl pick from the NFC is grinding it out early with big points. That may change, but they shouldn’t have any trouble on Sunday. I really have no idea what I’m doing and kind of regret throwing my name into the hat this year. Jesus, some of you guys are really good and I’m really bad. FOOTBALL!

  • Mikey

    A little MACtion and a lot of homerism on this weekend’s slate. The George didn’t really work last week and I feel like I’m learning a little something.

    Toledo -6.5
    Ohio -2.5 Solich’s let down MAC game usually comes at home, not at Akron
    Jets -1.5 That flight across the pond for a dysfunctional Dolphins team sounds like a bad idea.
    Jags +9 Somethin stinky going on in Indy.
    Golden Domers -1 I can’t remember Clemson actually winning one of these big matchups.

    Essay:

    I think I’ve set some bad juju on the Browns in week 1 and week 3. I’ve watched the games at the same bar where Derrick Rose made that stupid 3 pointer at the buzzer in last year’s playoffs. I also watched a CBJ playoff game there a few years ago that was less than successful. Not to mention I watched both games with Mike and Pete’s new mortal enemy, the bearded blogger. The game is not on locally in Columbus AGAIN. Just gonna chill and watch redzone all day and hope to catch a lot of the game there since there are only 4PM games and they are usually TRASH. Chargers OL is banged the f up, they can’t rush the passer, and I don’t really know, maybe the ghost of Te’o’s g/f will come back and haunt him? I’ll take the Cleveland Fucking Browns and Josh McCown (plus the Johnny package) to cover the 7.5.

  • Tim Butler

    AP: Clemson -1
    bg -8.5 over UBUFF

    NFL (10-4-1)
    FALCONS -6.5 over texans
    BRONCOS -6.5 over vikes
    PANTHERS -3 over bucs

    Hmm, all favorites so far, not good, let’s try another one.
    ESSAY: BILLS -5 over giants

    Let’s try this again. Last time I essayed the Bills was week 2 against the Pats when I made it my POTY. The Giants are not the Pats. I’ll be in the stands at the Ralph, and getting 3 cheddar points plus a Bills win seems like a great way to spend a Sunday afternoon. I actually think McCoy being out helps the Bills here, as Karlos Williams has been twice as good. Actually, he’s been better than that. So far this year, McCoy has rushed 43 times for 146 yards (0 TD), a 3.4 avg. Williams has rushed 24 times for 186 yards (3 TD), a 7.8 avg. Williams’ straight ahead style is a better fit for this Bills offense, and I’m hoping that after tomorrow, Williams grabs hold of the lead RB job. McCoy would become the best 3rd down RB in the league when he returns, which is what his skills are best suited for. In conclusion, go Bills.

    • Tim Butler

      Switching my all play from clemson to ND

  • The Iron Sheik

    Ole miss
    Wisconsin
    Clemson
    Michigan
    Texans
    Bama***

    The last time bama was an underdog in the line is the time they upset tebow and Florida in the sec chanpionship in 09. So when they are down in Athens this afternoon and the Bulldogs are wondering why ther backsides hurt so bad they should have checked the line on the game.

    Since bama had the loss against ole miss they have been been trying to find their identity and while doing so against Wisconsin and la Monroe- they didn’t looks so hot against mid Tennessee. What was the most consistent was their ability to stop the run and if they keep that up tonight and Nicky saban can rally the troops Georgia is in for a long night.
    Roll tide!

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Wisconsin
    Minny
    ND

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Pack-9
      Geez that’s a lot of points. The line’s back down, but I’m still going to go with a Packer cover here. Probably not the smartest or safest pick, but then again I drink my coffee from an uncovered ceramic cup while driving downtown to work every day (I hate travel mugs, and i swear it tastes better out of a real cup). So I’m looking for the Packer’s very inspired D to keep up the great work, Rodgers to be Rodgers, and the stands to be ehhh 3/4 empty midway through the fourth quarter. A little vengeance isn’t a bad thing as long as nobody gets hurt. Phil might have a good day, but long faces all around that unrecognizable Niners team.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        Forgot to add Chiefs and Bears from earlier.

  • RDGinCLE

    Essay – Georgia

    Nothing could be simpler than falling into the “albama is getting points!!!” trap. This line is influenced by Alabamas recent rep, not this year’s squad, as they only managed 300 yards of offense last week. They don’t have a QB and Georgia is at home and just flat out better. Alabama is going to get Georgias best effort today as they are last thing standing between the Bulldogs and and a playoff birth, save for Florida a little later who doesn’t deserve to be in the top 25. I feel like Georgia wins relatively big here, and I think this is the sharp side.

    Notre Dame for the all play. Seems like too much Clemson action around here

    • RDGinCLE

      Will add BG per FHCF.

      • RDGinCLE

        Tough start. Will add Browns and Bengals today.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay Pick: Golden Gophers: Call me crazy, but I’m not all that impressed with NW. I don’t consider a win over Stanturd to be worth anything given their schizo nature (they caught them on a Dave Shaw ultraconservative pound into the line only phase). They are mediocre on both sides of ball. Minny has kind of been unimpressively plodding along but I have a ton of respect for SeizureKill to get his squad up in conference game and this is a relatively important one. Minny for the essay.

    Others:
    South Caro
    Boston Coll
    Iowa
    Rams – why not?! lets play and get disappointed every week!
    Allplay Clemson

  • As the fates would have it I’m in Chicago this weekend, too, and planning a Sunday stroll through the Solider Field tailgates. My wonderful cousin Ashley, famous for among other things a secret exclusive interview with Brandon Weeden’s cousin on an airplane http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/2012/12/brandon-weedens-cousin-overheard-on-an-airplane-talking-about-the-browns/ is getting married here today and we are all thrilled about it. Since I’m here and all and will get to watch the game I’ll throw in with the Bears as well for my POTW. Nobody seems to be giving them a chance this week, with the public all over the Raiders on the road. I think a team that punted on every drive last week is going to do its best to get that taste out of its mouth, and I think it will view the Raiders as a great opportunity to get its first win of the season. As horrible as the Bears have been the last couple of weeks, if they were capable of a taking a lead into the 4th quarter against the Packers in Week 1, they’re capable of covering as a home dog v. Oakland. Cutler might play, too, which would be great. Plus the family wedding mojo worked for Brosef on his POTY in Minnesota Week 1 so I might as well go for it here. Bears +3 over Raiders.

    Other picks:

    Notre Dame +1 over Clemson: I’m surprised to see so many people on Clemson here. Both teams are loaded with playmakers on offense, but Notre Dame returned 10 starters on defense while Clemson had a lot to replace on that side of the ball (7 starters including 4 who went to the NFL (including 2 first rounders, Vic Beasley and Stephone Anthony)). Everybody knows what a bad break it was when the Irish lost Malik Zaire at QB but Kizer might be just as good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see ND win this big. I’d be very surprised if Clemson could do the same.

    Niners +9 over Packers: Reverse line movement here; another team with a really bad taste to get out of its mouth.

    Rams +7 over Cardinals: If the Rams can hold the Steelers offense to 12 points they can do something similar here.

    Lions +10 over Seahawks: The Lions were a couple plays away from beating the Broncos last week. I don’t think they’re in dumpster mode quite yet.

    Raisins -2.5 over Steelers (W).

  • Its Only Money

    Northwestern

    Duke

    Buffalo Bills

    Arizona Cardinals

    All Play ND

    Essay LSU -44.5 v Eastern Michigan

    Giving up 44.5 might seem like a lot for your lock of the week, but the Tigers are going to score 45 in the first half. The Eagles have not stopped a run game all year and they are about to face the best runner in the nation. I look for Leonard Fournette to have another very impressive, albeit short, day for LSU today. EMU gave up 58 points last week to Army, their defense is in for a bigger struggle this week. I guess the only real big fear is getting out to that big lead and then letting the Eagles score a little in the second half. This is not that big of a concern to me. I think the LSU D will be able to keep EMU in check even though the Eagles have put up some points so far this year. Traditionally they have struggled to score against Power 5 opponents.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    A superstitious little bird told me to switch to ND. I told the bird to buzz off but it was persistent. I caught it and locked it in a basement with tiny glass block windows and only basic cable. It can come out if ND wins

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      Never never never

    • i’d switch that tube tv in the basement to QVC and break off the knob. damn bird.

  • Uncle D

    Okay will notice my theme of always picking & writing about my alma mater, Penn State.
    I betted against them last week and it cost me. I was tempted to take Army this week, but my bro covered their game last week and we believe Army cannot stop the run or the pass effectively , as EMU scored nearly every time they had the ball last week.
    I also think Army’s triple option will be stiffeld by a fast and disciplined defense.

    ND
    OSU
    PSU
    MICHIGAN
    KC Chiefs
    SD Chargers

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    My essay: Bowling Green by a bunch

    The Falcons are good. The Bulls are not. The 1,565 in blue in attendance will not change this. The wind and the rain suck but probably aren’t enough. Let me channel my inner ClevTA here: Bowling Green 6.65 yards per play vs. two Big Tens (LOL but still), Tennessee and Memphis, three of those games on the road. 5th year senior QB, tons of WRs. Buffalo giving up 5 yards per rush and a negative TD pass/INT ratio. I just think good team vs. bad team with a first year coach and a 17 point game or so.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    All Play: Clemson +1 getting to clemson for a home game is on the bucket list, This was a coin flip so I’m going with the team I want to cheer for,

    Alabama +2.5: I’ll take Saban and Points during the regular season. Must win game season on the line. No way Saban loses…right?

    Jets -1.5: The Jets have a real defense and an offense with Marshall and Decker who looks to be back this week. The Dolphins stink. Can’t spend that much money on an interior lineman. Like the Jets in the early game… P.S. I love the London game Football on at 9:30 in the am, it’s like I live on the west coast.

    Raiders -3: Bears stink the Raiders offense has some punch. Plus I’m not sure how this Bears team can be inspired when they are conducting fire sales after week 3.

    Eagles -3: The Redskins are going to get me again I know it. Need Chip to fire up the engine and get this offense moving.

    Essay: Browns +7.5: San Diego is likely playing without 4/5 starting offensive line and half of their starting secondary. Injuries everywhere…If the Browns defense has an ounce of pride they’ll come out and play like there hair is on fire. Maybe Joe Haden even shows up. I’m hoping Josh was just rusty last week and can be more accurate with the football. These are games you need to win let alone not lose by more than a touchdown.

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      I’m going to switch my Eagles pick to KC +4. I just can’t stomach losing more cheddar points b/c of the skins. I also like the chiefs off an embarassing loss in national TV. Bengals are coming off a big win over a division rival and may be looking ahead to Seattle next week.

  • Petefranklin

    1)Bama +2.5
    2)WAZZU +19
    3) AP Clemson The rain favors ND, it negates the Tigers speed advantage, but I think ND is smoke and mirrors.
    4)Broncos -6.5
    5) Giants +5.5
    6) Essay CMFB!!!
    How can I not essay the Browns as I am leaving for rainy San Diego in a few hours!. +7.5 should be attainable vs. a Chargers team that is just not that good. Look for Crow to get his footing vs a terrible run defense.McCown should be able to feed off of the run and run some much needed play action this week. I look for the OL to finally step up their game this week. As for the D, well I have my fingers crossed that the Chargers and Rivers found something to exploit in the Browns secondary and that the Browns have managed to fix the hole (I’m talking about you adderal Joe). This game is definitely the Pros vs. Joes and the Pros are squarely on the Browns side. Look for a huge contigent of Browns Backers to make the players stand up for McCown without the Johnnie catcalls in San Diego and lead the Browns to a outright win.
    For those of you who are trend players, The Browns are on a sizzling 1-0 SU overall(Last win on opening day vs. BAL) streak and 2-0 SU all time in San Diego when Petefranklin is in attendance barking advice.
    WOOF WOOF!

  • CLEVTA

    1. CMU +2: Cooper Rush, Cooper Rush, Cooper Rush
    2. Clemson +1
    3. Pitt +4.5
    4. Minnesota Gophers +4 (Essay): The total is 39 so in games with such a low total expected, grabbing >3 is almost always advantageous. Northwestern is a nice little story but they really arent that good. Remember NW started 4-0 as well two years ago before losing a heartbreaker to OSU and they collapsed. You can already see the rising expectations getting to them as they barely survived a terrible Ball St team at home last week winning by only 5. Minnesota has covered 6 straight regular season games as an underdog
    5. TBD
    6. TBD

    • CLEVTA

      5. Texans +6.5
      6. Bucs +3

  • HitTheHorns

    2. Oklahoma -7
    3. Clemson +1

  • thatsfine

    UConn +18 (win)
    WVU +7
    Wyoming +25.5
    ND -1
    UNLV +6.5 (essay)
    NFL pick to follow
    The battle for the Fremont Cannon – the heaviest damn trophy in collegiate sports. It pains me a bit to grab this at +6.5, but I like UNLV to win outright, so be it. I watched Nevada (last week’s essay) at Buffalo, and to be honest I didn’t see them do anything well besides run the ball. They only passed for 90 yards. They racked up a pile of running yards, though a big chunk of it came on runs of 55 and 91 yards Buffalo stuffed the run in the 2nd half. Plus, Buffalo outgained them by 100 yards overall and Joe Licata shredded their secondary. The Bulls had multiple chances near the end, but a fumble and interception killed their last two drives. It looked like Nevada couldn’t stop them, it was hard to watch. UNLV is 1-3, losses to NIU, UCLA, and Michigan (no shame at all, that is a tough run), before beating the absolute crap out of Idaho State 80-8 last week. I love that Idaho State went for 2 when they scored their only TD. They were down 35-0 early in the 2nd quarter and basically just said “fuck it – try to stop us”. Gutsy call, then they gave up 45 more points. My biggest fear here is that scoring 80 points last week wore these guys out or there is some horrible payback brewing, like the Fremont Cannon being fired at Tony Sanchez (UNLV’s head coach). Or worse, being fired at the Golden Nugget. Anyway, UNLV, to paint the Fremont Cannon red!

  • Concierge

    Iowa +6.5
    Ball State +6.5
    Michigan -16 essay
    Notre Dame -1
    Georgia -2.5
    Jets -1.5

    I’m starting to believe in michigan. I had them last week against BYU and they absolutely blew the doors off of them… Today they face a maryland team that belongs in the FCS. This game was moved early because they wanted to get the ass kicking out of the way before the hurricane came through. I honestly don’t see maryland scoring more than 10 points in this game and Michigan will be able to move the ball at will in the rain. Think Michigan wins by 28+. Maryland will be forced to throw when they are behind in this game.. Caleb Rowe has thrown 9 picks in his last 3 games. Jabrill Peppers is probably salivating at that thought. Wolverines 41-10 Khakis for everyone!!

  • trashycamaro

    Clemson +1 over Notre Dame dartboarding continues, the good stuff comes out tonight

    • trashycamaro

      Essay Jets -1.5 over Dolphins Dolphins cannot run the ball (25th). Doesn’t get better this week. Dolphins cannot pass the ball efficiently (26th). Doesn’t get better this week. Dolphins can stop the run (11th), but not the pass (30th), and their pass rush is pathetic (1.1% adjustred sack rate). Fitzpatrick turns into a pumpkin as the weather gets cold (arm strength vs. wind) and he should be his regular mediocre self in London. Meanwhile, rumors of Phlbin getting Kiffin’ed in London are swirling.

      Overall, it seems like Vegas has really caught up to their lines. I don’t love this game, but I like it better than the other options.

      Jags +9 over Colts Things are off for the Colts, and it starts with pass protection, which is the strength of the Jax team. Historically, these games are also much closer than a 9 point spread. That was totally not true[The Colts are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five games against the Jaguars], but with Luck hurting look for the Jags to make it a little closer in a division matchup.

      Texans +6.5 over Falcons This is contingent on Foster playing. If he is out, I may change this game.

      Bengals -4 over Chiefs

      Raiders -3 over Bears Tough slate this week. Can’t believe I amtaking the Raiders as a road favorite.

      • trashycamaro

        I am extremely disappointed in the decision for the line change on the Colts game. This situation is completely different from the situation with Brees last week. Several people made that a POTY AFTER Brees being out was announced. As far as I can tell from the word cloud I am the ONLY person who chose the Jags (and the only one who chose the game) and I chose it well before Luck being out was announced.

        Now I agree at this point no one should be able to change IN TO the Jags at +9, or make a pick their essay or POTY, but having already selected that game the bet should still stand, as it would in the real world.

        TL;DR – situations like last week should be avoided. This is not like that situation.

      • trashycamaro

        Colts -3 over Jags per line change.

        Bears +3 over Raiders per Cutler start.

        Falcons -6.5 over Texans per Foster being limited.

  • Nick

    Clemson +1 vs ND
    Tulane -2 vs UCF
    WVU over OK
    Nebraska -6.5 vs Illinois

    Since joining the Big 10, Nebraska has beat Illinois by an average of 25 points. The last time Illinois beat Nebraska was in 1924, with Red freaking Grange. Long story short, I don’t see this trend changing anytime soon. Illinois has not faced a duel threat QB yet this year. Tommy Armstrong Jr. is beginning to make a name for himself, he’s going to impact this game on
    the ground and in the air. Rumors are swirling that De’Mornay Pierson-El will play this week and this is big news for Nebraska because he is a playmaker, but don’t take my word for it, cause I
    have no idea who he is. I haven’t watched either of these two teams, but this line stuck out to me as a bargain. Ok yes, Nebraska’s pass defense is horrible and Illinois’ Lunt is a good thrower of the football. But, Corn huskers will counter with strong D-line play to pressure Lunt into not playing
    very well. Their line is improving rapidly on the pass rush due to Freedom Akinmoladun who has tallied four sacks, two last week.

    Browns +7.5 vs Chargers
    Saints -3 vs Cowboys

  • Chris Schroeder

    PK Vanderbilt @ Mid. Tennessee State
    +44.5 Eastern Michigan @ LSU
    -6 Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe
    -1.5 Jets @ Miami
    All Play: +1 Clemson vs. Notre Dame

    Essay: – 3 Carolina @ Tampa Bay

    Location: Tampa, FL
    Venue: Raymond James Stadium
    Time: 1 PM Est. on FOX
    Weather: High of 81 with partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm possible. Winds West 10 to 15 mph.
    Mascot: Captain Fear and Sir Purr
    The Game: Carolina is holding the series lead over Tampa Bay 16-11 and also holding the longest win streak at 5 weeks. The Panthers are out to a three and zero
    start to the season of super bowl 50. With Kuechly still dealing with concussion protocols the addition of J. Allen will give the defense a little boost. Jameis Winston has had an up and down start to his career so far. If the defensive pressure persists as it will Sunday Jameis is up for a long season. Carolina is 4-1 SU against TB, also the Panthers are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games against TB on the road. Tampa Bay is still looking for the first home game victory of the season and they’ll keep searching. Carolina will cover and put constant pressure on Winston which will result in multiple turnovers.

  • zarathustra

    Jets -1.5 over Dolphins

    The Dolphins were embarrassed last week and everybody is talking about them maybe being the worst team in the league so the smart play is probably the Dolphins here, but I’m not so much interested in signalling intelligence here and would prefer picking the game correctly so I’ll go with the better team as a short favorite on a neutral field. It is well documented that Tannehill has struggled with the blitz and you can be sure the Jets will be bringing a lot of those. The fact that the Dolphin o-line is banged up probably isn’t going to make things any easier for Tannehill. I’ve never been a fan of their current coach, but there is a lot to like about their former (interim) coach so I will happily go with him here.

    Falcons -6.5 over Texans

    I might be falling in love with this Falcons team. They play their best in the second half, especially the fourth quarter. I love their coaching staff (so glad the Browns couldn’t wait an extra week for Dan Quinn. Maybe panic isn’t a good strategy when making important decisions. Who knew? Also, maybe listening to a fan base that is consistently wrong about EVERYTHING isn’t such a great idea) and they run such a beatiful offense (I wonder who their coordinator is?)
    Conversely, I don’t much like the Texans. They were able to sneak by a mediocre at best Bucs team last week when they were home. Now they are back on the road in a tough environment. They looked miserable in week 2 against Carolina and while last year they were a very respectable 4-4 on the road the wins were over the Raiders, Titans, Jaguars, and Browns (in November.)

    Washington +3 over Eagles

    Last week I essayed the Giants over Washington for several reasons with a big one being Kirk Cousins. I’m going to pivot this week and even go as far to say that for as deeply flawed as Cousins may be I think I might take him over Sam Bradford. This may be an insane proclamation and could be explained merely by far too much cannabis consumption on my part. Nevertheless, I think Cousins will be better Sunday. I initially kind of liked the Eagles here, but I have a pretty strong feeling on this one. Besides, is there any other way for this Eagles season to play out other than Bradford being injured or benched, Sanchez faltering in relief, then Chip signing Tebow off the street and they finish the season winning 8 straight to sneak into the playoffs? Maybe it is the plant talking again, but I could actually see this happening.

    Clemson +1 over Notre Dame

    UNC +7 over Georgia Tech

    I expect the Tarheels to win outright.

    Wazzu +19 over California***
    I own long shot Cal futures so I like them plenty and God knows I want them to win, but this number seems quite a bit off. We saw in Austin that the Cal defense is questionable holding a lead and the Cougars definitely have the offense to come in through the back door, but I don’t think they will have to. Last year the lead changed 3x in the fourth quarter and Cal escaped with a one point lead. Wazzu probably isn’t that good, but might not be quite as bad as perceived. They started the season with a loss to an FCS team, but rebounded decently enough the following two weeks and are coming off a bye. Air Raid vs. Bear Raid. I expect the old pirate to have his team ready for this one.

    • Concierge

      Heels… yessir

      • zarathustra

        You know it.

  • Jmacdaddio

    Wisconsin -6.5
    NC State -4.5
    Panthers -3
    Cardinals -7
    Notre Dame -1
    Essay: Northwestern -4

    An essay pick on the Jets, especially when it looks like they’re turning a corner and have a winnable game at home, is always a bad idea. Someday, with enough practice, I might learn this. Meanwhile, at a college north of Chicago, a football game will be played this weekend. One of those teams, Northwestern, is ranked #16, while the other team, Minnesota, is not. Now, that’s not the only criteria for an essay pick. Looking at this season, Minnesota lost to TCU to start the season (not a dealbreaker) however they have squeaked past a series of MAC opponents. Meanwhile, Northwestern beat Stanford, won a cupcake game, and has since then been challenged by decent opponents. By this unscientific approach Northwestern is a stronger team than Minnesota. I would expect the spread to be closer to a touchdown, if I were the gambling sort. Instead it’s only 4, which, if I gambled, would be enticing.

    I’ll bravely attempt the app form entry later

  • jdoepke

    Let me tell you something about me betting on Clemson games…I always lose. I’m never on the right side so I absolutely HATE that I have to pick this game. Additionally, I can’t stand Notre Dame. Adjust your picks and fade me on this game, call your bookies and double down.

    ND -1 (AP)
    Minnesota +4
    Illinois +6.5
    Colorado +7.5
    Bills -5.5

    Essay:
    Central Mich +2. Back to #MACTION for the essay for 2nd straight week. Just like last week, I can’t tell you a single player for CMU. I know that 70% of bets are on NIU, yet 80% of money on CMU. While I’d much rather have this line at 3 than 2, I will stick with what works – sharps driving this number down. Public big on NIU after last 2 weeks vs. premier opponents. CMU 27 – NIU 24

    Others that I really like:
    Bama
    WV
    Tulsa

  • Capitalgg

    So I tripled up my score last week… And still remain in the 40s. At least it’s progress up the standings rather than wandering my way closer to the bottom. My fall has settled into a routine after a harried first couple weeks, let’s see what I’ve done with this week…

    All-play: Notre Dame -1 @ Clemson: I was leaning Clemson all week, but something about the rain and the early Cheddar lean towards the home team has me going with the Irish.
    1. Panthers -3 @ Buccaneers: At this point, I’m simply riding the Panthers until they lose for me.
    2. Toledo -6.5 @ Ball St.: If things stay chalky, can we play a very special Tuesday MACtion West action on November 3 when the Rockets face NIU as the all-play?
    3. Ohio -2.5 @ Akron: Apparently, I have a road favorite fetish this week.
    4. Oregon -7.5 @ Colorado: Ducks bounce back spot here.

    So week 1, I was unprepared for anything in CFB other than Ohio State’s inevitable boot-stomping of the home team in Blacksburg. Things did not go well.

    Week 2, I was sleep deprived and had to put my picks in on Wednesday night so I could leave for a wedding bright and early Friday morning. I scored a virgin lobsterita.

    For week 3, I was still reeling from my slow start and my picks reeked of desperation. The betting gods punished me justly.

    Last week, I slowed things down and went back to my old way of doing things. Circle some games on the opening lines. Write down all the games I think I like when the Cheddar sheet gets posted. Friday night (and not a moment earlier), sit down and write a rambling essay about a MAC, Mountain West or ConfUSA team will win. #Indiana (MAC-like B1G East also-ran) handled business against ConfUSA-like Wake Forest. Then I hit everything but Lions getting points at home on SNF. I was happily rewarded for my hard work.

    This week, I’m playing in the American and leaning on one of my favorite young coaches, former Ohio State OC Tom Herman. Did you know he’s in Mensa? Apparently, I’m contractually required to mention that. Anyway, word came out today that on the flight from Cougar-ville, Tom Herman kicked a bunch of boosters out of first class so his offensive linemen could have those more comfortable seats. There is simply no way after that move his team doesn’t respond with a resounding thumping of the Tulsa. So let’s complete the road favorite fest with Houston -5.5 @ Tulsa.

    Other considerations (LW: 5-8-1, Season 21-29-1):
    Georgia Tech -7 v. UNC
    BGSU -8.5 @ Buffalo
    Wisconsin -6.5 v. Iowa
    TCU -15 v. Texas
    Navy -5 v. Air Force
    Ole Miss -7 @ Florida
    Ohio St. -21 @ Indiana
    Florida St. -19 @ Wake Forest
    Bills -5.5 v. Giants
    Raiders -3 @ Bears
    Bengals -4 v Chiefs
    Vikings +6.5 @ Broncos

  • RCLA

    I was going to write something funny but then Dwayne Bowe said: ‘It starts Sunday; It’s going to happen, just have patience’ and I decided to take the week off.

  • TheKardiacKid

    Baylor -17
    Texas +15
    Clemson +1
    Browns +7.5
    Jags +9

    Essay: Rams +7
    The Rams can’t be as bad as what they’ve looked to this point. They have to be at least Jeff Fisher mediocre. The Cardinals have been dominated some shit teams the first week. Credit to them and one time Browns HC hopeful Bruce Arians. But the Rams always have a game where they surprise everybody, it’s like the changing of the seasons. BTW it’s only permitted to occur against a NFC West team. So the LA Rams find a way to either win outright or lose on a last second Foles blunder. I’ll take the 7.

    • Just a heads up that the Colts/Jags game looks like it may be subject to a line revision. In that case we’d adjust the line to reflect a Vegas line and you can keep the Jags or take a different game.

      • TheKardiacKid

        Thanks!
        I’ll just roll with the Jags with whatever the line is.

  • thatsfine

    Let’s start with UConn +18. I like the D and need a reason to watch the game.

  • FTCMikeD

    Week 5 picks:
    @Buffalo +8.5 over BGSU
    @Clemson +1 over ND
    Jets -1.5 over Phins
    Panthers -3 over @Bucs
    Packers -9 over @Niners
    *****
    This is the time of year that the Brownies surprise us. When all hope seems to be lost, they give us one glimmer before all is truly lost. That is this weekend. On the road the Browns don’t have to deal with 1st quarter boo-birds and Johnny chants. Their defense will respond, just like in week 2 after being called out just like in week 1. Another full week of preparation by Josh McCown who hasn’t looked that bad this season.

    The Chargers looked like a tough matchup at the beginning of the season, but injuries have decimated their O-line. They are without Gates until next week. Felipe Rivers hasn’t looked great. I think all of the pressure is off the Browns this week and they will respond in kind. 7.5 is too many points for the Chargers to lay so I’ll take our Brownies +7.5 on the road!

  • GRRustlers

    Week 5 Picks

    LSU (-44.5) over EMU – No need to fear the big line here.

    Ohio State (-21) over Indiana – Feel like the beat down is coming. The Indiana defense is the perfect fix to get things going in this “home” game for Buckeyes.

    Michigan (-16) over Maryland – One of my many failed ideas that failed to gain traction is the Big 10 and MAC combining into an overseas relegation system for football and basketball. I have bad news for you Maryland…

    GT (-7) over UNC – Feel a bounce back here.

    AP – Irish (-1) over Clemson – Clemson at night in an important game vs a team that lives in the spotlight. This feels like stealing.

    Essay Pick

    When I was frantically seeing how many times I could hit the favorite button on Twitter this week over the idea that now would be the perfect time to try and steal Kapernick it started me thinking…

    Who are some other “franchise” QBs that could be had for the right price. The more I thought about it I kept coming back to one name. Matthew Stafford. We could argue about how good he really is but the fact of the matter he is light years ahead of anything the Browns have had since 99. Is there a way we could steal him from Detroit? How bad would the Lions have to be for them to entertain this? The good news is the Lions being bad thing is on the right track.

    A couple years ago there was a report that the NFL was trying to avoid giving Seattle night games because they were kicking the shit out of everyone and the country was turning the games off at the half. I think back to back shutouts are in play here and as much as Seattle is trying to figure things out on offense the night does strange things to those people up in the Northwest. The Lions are reeling…someone tell Jim Caldwell.

    Seattle (-9.5) over Detroit

  • ChuckKoz

    Steelers +2.5 (vs Ravens) – LOST
    Ohio State -21 (vs Indiana)
    Hawaii +24.5 (vs Boise)
    Oregon -7.5 (vs Colorado)
    AP: Clemson +1 (vs Dame)
    Essay: Browns +7.5 (vs Chargers)
    I will be attending my first Browns game in over 5 years, so I am pretty sure that it will end up being a close game where I think we will win, but then ultimately lose late to ruin my time and cause me to be a sad drunk. Its the only way it can go, because it is always how it goes when I go to Browns games. And under that logical theory, the Browns will lose by less than a touchdown. Then, if I look at the merits of the case, I see the Browns going up against a bad run defense (#28), which should allow the Browns to finally, maybe, start running the ball, which as we all knows can and will lead to all sorts of other good things. The concern will be the passing game of Rivers back at home, but that Chargers homefield advantage is withering away with what will surely have weak attendance and a good amount of Browns fans.

  • Jeff Grover

    Rex Ryan is his own worst enemy. He can usually be seen with either one or both feet in his mouth. His brother is definitely the cooler brother. I can tell by the long hair and the really cool facial hair. Rex has lost a lot of weight this year from his strict diet of vegi subs from subway. No question he is posturing for his second career as a subway spokesperson (sorry jared). He has been booted out of New York City and welcomed to the Siberia of New York. He lost his starting qb. He lost his starting running back (banged up), his wife thinks he is a dill hole and his dog ran away. Soooo, I’m taking the Bills to win!! This if finally Rex’s year, oh and Eli is the Giants qb.

    • alrighty, there you are!!

      i’ve got these picks for you:
      Toledo NCST TCU Duke Bills Clemson; and i mark Bills as your essay.

      • Jeff Grover

        Yes and thank u

        Make it a great day!

        Jeff Grover
        Zimmer Biomet
        C.616.291.4302
        O.616.281.0444

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Temple, MSU, Miss State, Vikings
    AP– ND
    **** West Virginia University ****

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Essay WVU
      Oklahoma has been winning the rather fickle important turnover battle on a consistent basis and at least a couple of points hinge on the rather nebulous concept of that good fortune continuing. Not bloody likely. OU has a questionable offensive line and their defensive line coach is named Joe Bob Billy Ray Wayne Bubba (that name has them starting with at least a 4.5 point deficit). JBBRB can not make things work with the normal complement of three or four lineman, so he is forced to use 5, the linebackers coach obviously lost their respective game of Rouchambeau, so he is forced to make due with 2 linebackers. I can understand using an extra DB for a spread offense, that would make sense to combat the superior speed of WVU, however I do not see the logic of adding another big ugly to combat speed and the shift to pass first offense. WVU is not exactly my favorite team in CFB, but they are too good to be given a TD against an overrated Oklahoma team.

  • I’ll take
    UCONN +18 tonight. Way too many, and Uconn’s defense can hang.
    IRISH in an obvious pick for tomorrow. If I’m forced to choose, I couldn’t possibly go the other route.
    The rest to come.

    • p_forever

      the irish become increasingly more obvious as the rest of cheddar bay plays against them.

    • NORTH CAROLINA +10. Once again, I saw GT in person…not sure where all that love is coming from. Also, when will Larry Fedora remove head from ass and start Mitch Trubisky?

      HOUSTON -5.5. Vegas thinks there will be a lot of scoring in this one. I think most of it will be the Cougars.

      COLORADO STATE +4.5. Chuckie Keeton out. And Utah State couldn’t score when he was in.

      Charlie Munger’s Mis-Priced bet of the week:
      RAIDERS -3.
      Look, I’m as die hard Irish fan as one can be, and I also obtain immeasurable amounts of hate for Jimmy Clausen. I now live in Chicago and spend lots of time hearing Bears fans bitch about Jay Cutler and how horrible he is-when in reality, by my definition, he’s a “franchise” quarterback. I’ve had the debate before about what that word actually means, and how few teams actually find one of them, let alone an all-time great. Of course he’s a royal shitbag human being who married a reality tv star and couldn’t give less fucks about you or the city of Chicago, but when you go through the rosters of 32 NFL teams and ask, “who performs at a mediocre level most of the time for multiple seasons?” you’ll find him in the middle of that pack. None of this of course has anything to do with the fact that the Raiders defense is good. Their front seven is lead by a man-eating monster, (and should have been Cleveland Brown) Khalil Mack, who wants nothing more than to destroy cheddar-bob-lookin’, spiked-hair wearin’, high-school-state-champion-flauntin’, black-eye-gettin’ has been James Clausen, and tear his body into tiny little pieces, scattering them across the shore of lake Michigan. THE RAIDERS. (Chris Berman voice).

  • entry for super p forever

    wake +19 FSU

    UCLA -13.5 ASU

    bengals -4 chiefs

    northwestern -4 minnesota

    cardinals -7 rams

    ND -1 Clemson*** ESSAY

    For about three or four weeks of my junior year of high school, I wanted to go to Clemson more than anything in the world.

    I have no memory of why, but I’m assuming one of three things played in:

    1) My family used to vacation in South Carolina a lot. (Here today, I’m not even sure if Clemson is in SC, but I feel like it is. If it’s not, it’s in NC, which is still close.)

    2) An NBA player who I can’t remember but probably liked for some reason was a Clemson Blue Duck. (Research shows that the Cavs own Larry Nance went there, but this revelation sparked exactly zero (0) memories, so I’m doubtful.)

    3) I just wanted to go somewhere different than everyone else. (This doesn’t seem like me, at that time.)

    Looking those over, it’s also possible I’ve never thought about Clemson before today, when it was handed to me – via a handwritten note – as our Cheddar Bay Essay pick.

    (That it’s also the All-Play made for a mundane but informative email exchange with the one-time Kanicki and super p herself.)

    Now, Clemson’s opponent this week is Notre Dame, which is a college I actually visited in high school. In fact, I had my first beer(s) and went to my first college party at Notre Dame.

    I was 15 years old, and really into Chris Webber, and this party changed everything.

    The narrow, packed apartment where all the college adults were dancing is vivid in my mind. More so are the long discussions my friends and I had while standing in the alley outside the apartment sharing our very first alcohol-induced illegal urination.

    “So like, these people, they like, just get together whenever they want, and like, have a dance?”

    That this was a common experience at every college in the nation wasn’t in play. We’d somehow discovered something! Notre Dame was magical!

    Those conversations – in which we tried to determine how we could have such parties RIGHT NOW, back in our white-picket fenced-in Ohio hometown – likely led to the ruination of any chance I’d ever have to attend either Clemson or Notre Dame.

    My college choice ultimately was no choice at all, but rather an offhanded comment to my parents at dinner one night.

    “Who cares, I’ll just go to Ohio State.”

    The one thing I’m certain of in this entire story is that that conversation took place at the Olive Garden.

    And so, for our dual-core essay and All-Play, we pick Notre Dame, because the battle between these two schools that were sort of part of me figuring out where to go to college something something something that’s like 300 words lol

  • CLEVTA

    My two cents on games with huge line moves. It’s a contest where every contestant has full knowledge and ability to pick whatever game they would like, including a game with an injury, suspension, etc which would cause that line move. There are no restrictions so I am not sure why lines would be cancelled or adjusted. Game theory applies if you want to follow the masses to take the same game or if you want to be contrarian and try and gain a game on everyone by picking against said line move. It’s a “free market” and essentially all in your discretion. I’m not sure why that should be restricted. Where I think there should be limitations is the ability to use your essay or GOTY selection on that specific game with the line move bc this is where not every contestant has the ability to do the same. I may have already used my GOTY so if I wanted to use it on the Panthers last week I didn’t have the same option that everyone else had. Same could be with an essay selection if I already used it up on a Thur or Fri night game. I would move to allow free reign to select any game with any line move for 1 pt but restrict the ability/option for the entire contest to use it for GOTY or Essay purposes during the week. Again just my two cents

    • Bringing John Nash into any discussion immediately gives it credibility, and I second this for two reasons:

      1. We aren’t betting against the “house” who takes the buyer and seller market into effect. The line, albeit different than what vegas might project come game time, isn’t moving for cheddar purposes. So the fact that it may seem unfair would only be true if the “house” had a disadvantage. There is no house, therefore there can be no such disadvantage.

      2. As TA noted, everyone has access to the Wednesday line, regardless of when they make the play. And they can change their play up to an hour before kick.

      Just me preaching like an asshole.

    • HitTheHorns

      A POTY was allowed to stand last week on Carolina, and it was written after the Brees news. Which is great! I was happy it was allowed to stand. Why would the rest of us now not be afforded the same opportunity? Its still a risk, no sure things in gambling, etc. etc.

    • I don’t understand the problem. Our competition involves matching wits with one another against the spread as based on Vegas lines. We’re trying to articulate a policy to address the odd contingency where our lines no longer reflect the Vegas lines and state that yes we will move to protect the group as whole from the gaming of an unnatural line.

      It is necessary to do so because coming in after the fact and killing someone’s pick without any prior notice just seems unsporting. Now we have given notice.

      From a maintenance standpoint, it also spares the EC from having to watch the wires 24×7 in case Aaron Rodgers gets hit by a bus and omg we have to pull the pull the Packers game before someone gets a pick in. Now you all know that we can and may do this after a pick is in.

      Actually we don’t even have to create a hypothetical as there is the Andrew Luck issue happening now. You cannot bet Colts/Jags online tonight since he became listed questionable. Consider that absent this policy, there was nothing stopping you from taking the Jags +9 tonight and simply dropping the game Sunday if Luck plays. But now, if it happens that Luck is out and the line has moved significantly from our Wednesday line due to it, all know that the EC will huddle and possibly revise the line.

    • A big part of this contest is to get people to think creatively about the slate of games and which way to go with them IRL. When everybody starts diving for an obvious value play (that’s not available IRL) it diminishes the contest. It’s a race to the bottom (as one tends to see when it comes to “free markets”).

  • All Play: Clemson +1.
    Connecticut +18 vs. BYU
    Missy St. +7 vs. Texas A&M
    **Essay** Indiana +21 vs. OSU
    South Carolina +3 vs. Mizzou
    Broncos -6.5 vs. Vikings

    I found myself in search of the perfect fall weather black ankle boots yesterday. First, I walked all of the aisles and picked out every pair of shoes that could potentially work, regardless of price. If it caught my eye, I would try it on. Even if I wasn’t wild about them, they would go into the mix because I like to cast a wide net and narrow down from there, some look/feel better on than I would have expected. Some do not. I always cut two laps and usually do my best work on round two.

    On Wednesday, I made note of all the games/spreads I was interested in. Both college and pro. This list contained both logos and pathos picks. I don’t deny the heart or mind. Ethos picks are out of the picture because frankly, bringing my ethos into the wagering picture would leave me with very, very few options.

    I tried on each pair of boots, contemplated their practicality, look, value, and how they make me feel. They went into one of two piles; maybe or nope.

    Today, I go back through my potential Cheddar picks list, comparing and contrasting the lines to where they are now versus what they were on Wednesday. From the first run down, they get a star (yes), a maybe, or a nope. Once I’m done going back through my list, I’ve usually added one or two games that caught my eye based on line movement, and I have two to three starred picks. Then, narrowing down the maybes begins. I “maybe’d” Rice and Western Kentucky. Rice, though seldom a pick of mine, has been tried and true. Looked at the points past opponents have put up against them and the game turned quickly into a “nope.” I don’t need a Hilltopper points-fest to take me down this week. I “maybe’d” Kent vs. Miami of Ohio. Kent covered for me last week, but I’m not not about to look a Golden Flash in the mouth, nope. Indiana vs. Ohio State, I don’t hate it. Not at +21. Those Hoosiers have wormed their way into my heart and dangit, I think they’re swell.

    I found myself stuck between three pairs of black ankle boots. This is when I have to dig deeper and figure out, which pairs actually look great on me and which pairs do I just really want, wish, and hope, look good on me. There’s a big difference. Cheddar picks echo the same sentiment. There are good picks, like Connecticut +18 against BYU, but it’s not super sparkly or exciting. Then, there are picks that I want to work, like Browns +7.5 vs. Chargers, but it’s not going to happen. Just like how suede, wedge, ankle boots aren’t going to happen for me. They look like a remnant of an elf costume on me.

    As for what my essay pick is, I’m arbitrarily choosing Indiana for a few reasons.
    1. It’s the only one of my picks playing at home besides the all-play
    2. One of my favorite girlfriends who went to Indiana just had her first child, a son, and his shares his middle name with my husband’s first
    3. I once drew the truth in Balderdash about how Hoosiers got their nickname and no one believed me
    4. Indiana’s QB is from Modesto, CA, from a football family with a brother on the Jets – not too shabby
    5. Per my strategy last week, I don’t need a win, just a cover

    • First logos-pathos-ethos reference in five years of Cheddar. (Stunning when you think about.) Then to marry Cheddar with winter ankle boots.. featured comment zone.

  • Peter Markos

    Memphis is a big favorite over USF on the road. Willie Taggart needs to hire a mover. This program will reach the bottom after this blow out loss. Of course, last year was miserable….

    • mmmmsnouts

      And the year before that and the year before that and the year before that.

      • what the hell happened to the WKU Taggart I wanted for the Browns as a Shurmur replacement.

        • mmmmsnouts

          1. Hammering a square peg (Stanford system) into a round hole (tons of fast kids in Florida, not that much size). I was lobbying for an Air Raid guy 3 years ago and will be doing the same this year.

          2. Hired by an AD who had no fucking clue what he was doing. Rumor is some of Taggart’s assistants (the bad ones) were hired for him. This was the AD’s final mistake – he was fired in Jan 2014 but kept around as some kind of advisor because he had 18 months to go on his contract. The new AD (a massive upgrade) realized the guy had nothing to offer and cashed him out a year early.

          3. Undermined himself by not sticking with a QB.

          I think Taggart will recover as an OC somewhere and then get another shot. This was a really bad spot for his particular type of program.

          • still, i thought the ‘bradenton kid coming home’ part was going to be a great story. and he REALLY DID have his wku teams playing as a team. his players seemed inspired in bowling green where his USF teams have never. … weird.

            not to scare you but the way he got on my radar was because i bet against him one year after one season started with like 3 losses and capped by a loss to indiana state. he went undefeated ATS the rest of the way and even took at halftime lead to the locker room as a 40 point dog in baton rouge. but have seen zero sort of that inspiration in tampa.

      • Good luck tonight, snouts. I hope you really won’t retire from Cheddar Bay if you lose though.

        • mmmmsnouts

          Sorry guys. I’m done. Losing on a backdoor cover with the worst QB in USF history leading a 90-yard TD drive. That’s the sign to quit.

  • jpftribe

    I’ve noticed the Cheddar vets have a penchant for last minute submissions. I suppose this is to gain that final edge of who may or may not show up on the field, the weather or commentary crew for that day. I must eschew this methodology so as not to be unduly influenced by the fading Dionysian cult of the Bacchus Bupalos.

    Buffalo U – Hard not to pick the fabulous BG uniforms here, but last year was a one point game and this is homecoming for the Buffs.
    Bucs – Carolina coming off a heady win against the Aints at home will surely implode in a divisional game on the road.
    Chiefs – Ratbirds found a way to climb back into divisional contention and Andy Reid’s tribe will complete the shakeup this weekend.
    Cards – I really don’t get the Rams hype. I mean, Jeff Fisher is still coaching these guys right?
    Clemson – I’ve been to their stadium to see the Panthers in their first year. Great place. Never been to South Bend.

    Essay pick:
    I am reminded of two great works of literature when reviewing this game. Granted, I have never actually read the books, but I’ve seen the movies (yes, Scrooge counts) and I’ve just moved back to glorious Albion, so the Dickens vibe is in the air.
    For Chip Kelly it is the best of times and the worst of times. Chip is keen on revolting against the elite NFL aristocrats, proving once and for all that not only can college football be played at the NFL level, it may actually be an advantage. To combat the old line WCO technocrats, he has hired one as his OC, not for his superior expertise in game management or play calling, but for his willingness to say “Yes sir” when Chip says “no, don’t do that”. In this nepotistic battle of nitwits, the Shurmur’s have the distinct advantage over the Gruden’s only because Chip fancies himself a master puppeteer.

    Segue to our next character, one J. Ebenezer Haslam, in deep REM sleep. As his eyes twitch back and forth, the ghost of football past stops by in his golf cart, hands J Eb a cig and a daiquiri and drives them off to that fateful January day in the Arizona desert. J Eb violently awakens screaming “I swear Chip, I’m going to fire him!”
    As J Eb works off the cold sweat, he is visited by Tiny Ray, who is not really tiny. Tiny Ray has an invite to the Owners Box at the Redskins home game vs the Eagles. J Eb tags along and is astounded by what he sees. An owner who is vilified by his fans, the laughing stock of the NFL, years of first round draft picks inactive on the sidelines and his once proud franchise being beat into the ground at home by a division rival.
    Alas, J Eb has seen Scrooge as well, and being the smartest guy in the room, knows the gig. He turns to Tiny Ray and says, “Ok, let’s get this ghost of the future thing done, I have a marketing meeting in the morning”. To which Tiny replies, “We just did J Eb, this is what you have become.”
    Eggles over the Skins

    • bupalos

      >>>We just did>>>

      Chilling sir, chilling.
      While I’m still pacing back and forth in my cell steaming about this “fading” business, I will give credit where it’s due.

  • mmmmsnouts

    ALL PLAY: Clemson +1 vs. Notre Dame
    Raiders -3 vs. Bears (OH MY GOD JIMMY CLAUSEN IS SO BAD)
    Panthers -3 vs. Bucs
    Nevada -6.5 vs. UNLV
    UCLA -13.5 vs. Arizona State

    PICK OF THE YEAR ESSAY: Memphis -8 vs. USF

    I know. I’m going right into the teeth of what looks like a Vegas trap. The public is all over Memphis, but the line has dropped 4 points since it posted on Sunday.

    Here’s the thing, though. I watch USF every week and they suck. Like, really suck. FSU played about 1 good quarter against them and won by 20. A mediocre-at-best Maryland beat them by 18, and it took some hilariously bad interceptions by Caleb Rowe to even keep it that close. I haven’t had any faith in Willie Taggart since the middle of last year, when he started jacking with his starting quarterback for no good reason and ruined whatever small momentum his program was building. Willie messed the kid up so bad that he transferred to FAU. His “offensive makeover” in the offseason was mostly a sham. Now he’s rolling with Quinton Flowers, who isn’t a particularly good ballcarrier despite his speed, and who cannot throw the ball consistently. Even if he could, he doesn’t have any receivers to throw it to.

    That’s why I discount Memphis’s defensive struggles the last 2 weeks. They gave up massive yards to Bowling Green and Cincinnati, but both of them are prolific passing teams. USF is an absolutely terrible passing team. By the way, Memphis still outscored those two teams and won. Their offense is multifaceted and prolific, while USF’s defense is just OK.

    For everyone saying this is a trap game for the Tigers… not really. Memphis has a bye week before Ole Miss comes to town. That game will be 15 days away when this one kicks off. For everyone saying Taggart is coaching for his job… he pretty much already lost it. (I wouldn’t count out a midseason firing – our new AD didn’t hire him and isn’t particularly fond of him, plus there are guys on the staff who can interim coach.) For everyone who thinks USF can keep up offensively… no they can’t. They’ve scored more than 20 points in only 1 of their last 17 games against FBS opponents.

    Believe me, I looked for reasons why not to take Memphis and I couldn’t find them. I’m laying the points. Not only that, but this is my PICK OF THE YEAR and probably my last stand in this contest. If I can’t hit this pick, against a team I know is crap, at a remarkably low line, then I need to stop paying money to be such a shitty handicapper.

  • mmmmsnouts

    Is there a line for UCF-Tulane yet?

  • HitTheHorns

    1) Ravens -2.5

  • Picks coming in earlier than normal this week as I will be traveling all night tomorrow and Saturday morning. Which is unfortunate because I feel like I do my best research Saturday mornings, not while I am packing last minute on a Thursday night… Throw in the fact I’m trying to stay away from Hurricane impacted games just in case and I can guarantee almost no one wants to be following me blindly this week… But here it goes:

    1) Clemson +1 (All-Play)
    2) Houston -5.5 (Essay)
    3) UCLA -13.5
    4) Panthers -3
    5) Oregon -7.5
    6) Miami -6

    Essay (Houston -5.5):

    The only thing I knew about either of the teams involved in this game (off the top of my head) is that Tom Herman is the head coach at Houston. I think Ohio State misses him dearly. Looking into Houston further, I’m impressed with what Herman has done with the team so far and I think a lot of it has to do with the QB he has, Greg Ward Jr., who, based solely on his stats, appears to be a legitimate dual threat at the position. Both Houston and Tulsa put up points in bunches and I don’t think this game will be any different. What I do think will make the difference in this game is Houston’s ability to run the ball in addition to airing it out, allowing their defense enough time to get rest when needed. At the end of the day I expect Houston to make a few more stops on defense than Tulsa is able to and Herman’s offense to provide enough variety to get them in the end zone enough to cover being the away favorite.

  • Dave Borcas

    Week 5 Picks
    Miami -6
    Oregon -7.5
    ND -1 all play
    Buckeyes -21 essay
    Raiders -2
    Panthers -3
    This game is as much as a hunch as it is based on fact. The Buckeyes eventually have to cover a spot don’t they? Last weekend the Bucks were close to putting it all together. They hit on a couple of big plays and nearly missed on a few others. The IU strength is their running game, and that plays right into the teeth of the Buckeyes defense. The Hoosiers will be playing without their defensive stud, Darius Latham. This could be some good news for Ezekiel Elliot. It appears that Cordele is settling in as the QB and leader of this team. JT Barrett had a couple of chances to take the job but never could take hold. Go Bucks

  • Oh, fiddlesticks. It should have been obvious that Pope Francis’s visit to the states would coincide with a public jubilee at the sports books. Ah well, I will wager that the jubilee effect lingers at least through Thursday and vote for the Raisins -2.5 over the Steelers for one point. The fact that Agnes is on this same side is a nice bonus.

    • p_forever

      i couldn’t be madder than i didn’t get my ravens pick in on time.

  • pick #1, Miami.

    • cwonder23

      Of Ohio?!?!? Wow, Kanick! Wrong team to be a homer for! 😉

      Love and Honor

      • That was Miami FL, but the hell is going on in Oxford. Beta and Sigma Chi are closed?! How on earth do national fraternities close their Alpha Chapters?

        • cwonder23

          Oh, I know it is FL. Just wanted to poke a little bit. Bunch of drunk spoiled kids down there. I graduated in 2007 and watched my chapter get closed as well as Fiji literally burn to the ground. Interesting place.

    • Miami (loss)
      Clemson.
      Bama.
      **UTSA…
      NIU.
      Raiders.

      UTSA -3 at UTEP
      The balls on Larry Coker, eh? Arizon, KState, OkState out of the chute. Tack on a tough loss last week against ColoSt (10-3 last year) and you get an 0-4 team that’s probably better than its record. Meanwhile, I watched UTEP give up 500+ yds in their signature win against NMSU. And while they did take care of business against Incarnate Word last week, UTEP shows up dead last in this week’s Football Outsiders S&P+ ratings. What is the S&P+ rating? I dunno, does it matter.. they’re the worst. Okay,, FO looks at every damn drive and developed a metric that determined UTEP is worse than Idaho and Kansas and Georgia State. That’s a useful starting point. Beyond that:
      * not seeing any injuries for UTSA while UTEP is without all-CUSA RB Aaron Jones and their QB is ‘doubtful’ in a concussion protocol situation;
      * if you’ve watched any of their games in the Sun Bowl, there is no big home field edge for UTEP;
      * game doesn’t involve any of my do not bet on/against coaches (Beamer, Solich, Tuberville [dammit I went against this Thursday], Spurrier).

      I love the story of UTEP and their Western NY o-line guy coaching his alma mater. But I see a team here undervalued coached by a past national championship winner looking to take out some vengeance on a weaker rival. Also there’s payback for a 34-0 smashing last year where UTEP took out UTSA’s QB ending his season and pretty much UTSA’s. That QB is back. And gets to throw to this guy. https://twitter.com/LarryCoker/status/631082712258842624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

  • cwonder23

    Ohio State -21 @ Indiana
    EMU +44.5 @ LSU
    Rams +7 @ Cardinals
    49ers +9 vs Packers
    All Play: Clemson +1
    Essay: Bama +2.5 @ Georgia
    Must win game for arguably the best coach in college football (neck and neck with Urban IMO). I think I’ll take the Tide in this one. I think Bama is more battle tested than Georgia after playing Wiscy and Ole Miss already this year. And, in that Ole Miss game, they turned the ball over 5 times in a game that was otherwise controlled by Bama (TOP 35:25, Rushing Yards 215:92, First Downs 29:16). That’s called shooting oneself in the foot. Saban will be sure to beat that into his kids and may put some crazy glue on their gloves in prep for another SEC matchup. Also, Mark Richt stays away from the spread offense, one of Ole Miss’ strength. Having a softie last week like ULM to iron out the mistakes gives Saban an advantage. A stat I stole from someone else because I, obviously, don’t keep a database on Alabama on my computer. This is the first time The Tide has been an underdog during the regular season since 2008! That’s nuts. I just don’t see how Saban lets his team start the year 0-2 in the SEC. Coaching advantage outweighs the favorite. Tide 27 – Georgia 20.

  • zarathustra

    Clemson +1 over Notre Dame (all-play )

    The Tigers just can’t seem to win a big game. Have you heard how they are 1-7 against ranked opponents? Well….I’m here to assure you that there is not a more misleading stat you will hear all week. Five of those 7 were on the road (in my opinion there is a tremendous distinction between home vs road performance in college.) The losses were @ FSU and @ South Carolina in ’12–both very good teams they traditionally struggle with. They started ’13 with a home win over Georgia, then lost at home to eventual national champion FSU and on the road again to South Carolina. Last year it was losses at Georgia, at FSU, and at Georgia Tech. Since the beginning of 2011 they have loss twice at home–to South Carolina in ’12 and the National Champions in ’13. Putting this context aside what is really misleading about this stat is that it applies only to the regular season. This rather conviently omits two bowl victories over top ten teams–LSU (8) after ’12 and the Buckeyes (7) after ’13
    Notre Dame is certainly a very good team, but what have they done on the road lately? Since the impressive ’12 season they are 4-6 with the wins being over Purdue, Navy, Air Force, and this year over Virginia. Two service academies, and maybe the two worst Power 5 teams of the past several years. Show me Irish.

    • zarathustra

      This may be essay, but only a one-pointer for now.

  • RCLA

    I mean, do I really want to write an essay about the Ravens and the Steelers? Of course not. This is like the total opposite of Meth v. Chef. Everyone deserves to lose. But anyway.

    Maybe some of you heard – Mike Vick is starting this game for the Steelers. Turns out, Mike Vick is terrible. His QBR was 22.17. For perspective, Darren McFadden threw one pass – an incompletion – and his QBR was 41.86. He made Colt McCoy, Shaun Hill and Geno “No Mas” Smith look like Y. A. Fucking Title. So I don’t think that’s a good fact.

    And I just don’t think Baltimore goes to 0-3. Their backs are against the wall, and they have some guys who perform under those circumstances. Baltimore’s defense is thinner than it has been in the past, no doubt, but it isn’t suddenly as bad as it has looked the last two weeks. I can’t see Pittsburgh winning the game and, while it could be close, I’ll give the points.

    • jpftribe

      Nailed this one.

  • Joe G

    After twice typing out my picks for last week in the airport and losing the tab once and internet connection the second time, I’m back with picks, and likely have to win all of them the next several weeks to become relevant again…but I digress.

    All Pick: Clemson (+1) over Notre Dame. I’ll admit I’ve watched very little college football this year relative to my norm but in my mind I still think Notre Dame is overrated. Clemson is at home and that’s good enough for me.

    Essay Pick: San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over Cleveland – The Browns came back in garbage time and McCown now has a bum throwing hand, I didn’t want the Browns to draft Manziel in the first place and while he looks improved I don’t think he physically has the attributes to be a franchise QB. That said, I have no idea why we continue to bathe in the uncertainty. He’s either the guy or he’s not and getting to the end of the year of what is likely to be a sub .500 season saying, we didn’t see enough of him is just an excuse. We need to find out so we can draft appropriately and address our needs. Along those lines, Farmer needs to be gone, I liked him at first but his actions and words prove to me he’s much better served working behind someone who makes the final decisions. So all of this is my long winded way of saying, the Chargers are pissed from their loss last week, they are playing at home and it’s tough for any team to make the East-West trip let alone a mediocre one. Our defense has been severally under-performing and I believe the Chargers are a good bit more powerful on offense than the Raiders. On defense, I think they are vulnerable but in a shootout, the team with the offensive weapons wins.

    Denver (-6.5) over Minnesota – Denver’s offense seems to be getting itself together, their defense has been great. Minnesota seems only to have a run game to the surprise of many so I don’t think they keep up.

    Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Baltimore – Sure Pittsburgh lost Big Ben and Vick looked rusty/old. With a week of practice I think he will be fine with all the weapons they have. Baltimore’s offense on the other hand still has been stalled, I know because Justin Forsett on 3 of my fantasy teams confirms it. I’ll take the home dog in a division game, especially with two teams who are always competitive.

    Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay – After Tampa Bay ruined my Survivor dreams showing up against what I had even said was overrated New Orleans team, they haven’t done much else. Carolina has quietly been winning. I expect them to continue this week

    Miami (-6) over Cincinnati – I bet Cincinnati against Miami of Ohio earlier in the year. The line was -21.5 or so. Miami of Ohio won. I don’t follow them closely but I know Big Ben is long gone, so if you lose to MiamiU as a 3 TD favorite you won’t get my respect.

    • been there with lost essays.
      feel free to email/direct-message me the picks if that’s your last option.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    My votes for week 5

    Ravens
    Temple
    Clemson
    Alabama
    Lions
    Bears

    When I was young (about a month ago), football was something that other people cared about. I gave but an insouciant shrug toward those who embraced the follies of passing a fall weekend invested in the fates of a bunch of men following a multifarious set of rules to get a ball to travel a few yards closer to one end of the field or the other.

    That was then. Now this football essayist has come full circle to embracing the complicated, exasperating and blithesome lifestyle that plagues the football fan. I have decided that one day
    of football might have been good enough for the fans of yesteryear but I want 5 days of football folly. That is why I have picked one game for each of the 5 football nights this week and one for Saturday afternoon. I am making the Bears my pick of the week. If I am going to be a fair weather fan (ie, I will only consider being outside to watch football during fair weather), then I should root for the players who happen to be employed by a person who owns or leases a building in the town to which I happened to be nearest on the day of their game. This weekend it happens to be Chicago. Who cares if they have lost their last 8 games? Who cares if they haven’t beat the Raiders since 2007? Who cares if MartellusBennett doesn’t get to wear whatever shoes he wants ? (hee hee hee http://espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/13781167/martellus-bennett-chicago-bears-angered-nfl-uniform-violation-fine-wearing-cleats-were-too-black) Who cares if the Raiders season point differential is -9 and the Bears are at -59? (Good stuff!) Well sometimes the underdog pulls through. I think I’ll enjoy Chicago more if they do.

    • bupalos

      More votes!!!

      • This mysterious football essayist continues to impress.

        • The essay business is brisk this year.

  • mmmmsnouts

    Noticing how many of these games had huge early action. Either Vegas really blew the starting lines or people smell blood in the water (or both).

  • Petefranklin

    I got killed last week. A buddy called me up out of the blue because he had problems as well
    I still can’t believe Stanford covered. For those who didn’t watch, the refs and replay officials made sure Stanford was going to win before halftime.

  • HitTheHorns

    If any Chedders are in the Youngstown area this week and want to pick me up a few tickets to this, I’d appreciate it. http://wkbn.com/2015/09/27/big-crowds-gather-in-austintown-for-1-million-jackpot/