#CheddarBay wk4, Chiefs at Pack.

All-play: Chiefs +6.5 at Packers (MNF)

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More data from the spreadsheet.

You can sort the teamlist worksheet to get the ATS records of teams so far.  To date BYU is the only team to score three ATS wins, MSU and NMSU the only ones with three losses.

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Who is Ben Axelrod anyway?

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Following the Skip Bayless career-growth model?

There are many reasons that wiseguys beat the public picking against the spread.  Probably the main one is that the public are more likely to defer to so-called media experts.

Witness Ben Axelrod.

Scruffy hipster beard wearing, ironic (or non-ironic, it’s hard to know) WWF following, and SMARTER THAN YOU OR ME.   This is Ben Axelrod.

I truly didn’t know who he was prior to Zac and Andre mentioning him.  That they seem to like him gave him some cachet with me. And lookit, I can take fan-related jackassery.  But this stupid QB premise and graceless “helicoptering QB” tweet deserved to be challenged by Frowns.

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Smartest guy in the room inveighs contumeliously.

All the AtoZ cachet is gone now that he’s played the sportswriter equivalent of do you even lift?  Because there seems to be a deleted tweet prior to this exchange:

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I bid you good day, “sir.”

Seriously?  You write for a blog just like Frowns, just like me.  You hold a mic in a locker room.

Get back to us when you can hit over 50% against the spread if you want to play the smug card here.

I mean, hey, TA has at least earned it.  😉

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  • bookkeeping: concierge texted to move his pick to packers pre-kickoff. no essay from AK47, docking bonus point.

    • Andy Rhode

      Self-reporting here: I never sent my essay in, either. My essay pick was the Bengals game.

      • we can use your no-essay week here. (ak47 used his last week.)

        • Andy Rhode

          Ok great. Thanks Mike.

  • Uncle D

    Packers ESSAY
    KC has never lost a regular season game in Green Bay, but after spending the weekend in Wisconsin with lots of very confident Packers backers, I’m going with GB delivering a big blow to Jamal Charles and co. Aaron Rogers comes up big at home under the lights against formidable Alex Smith. Hope I can stay up for the duration 😉

  • Its Only Money

    was a decision made on Carolina as a POTY?

  • CLEVTA

    Need a ruling prior to game starting. Are we allowing Carolina to be GOTY?

  • Petefranklin

    Essay Rams +1
    Last week the Steelers were in the best spot possible vs.SF. The Rams were in a pretty bad spot vs. Miami. We all have seen how things tend to even out in the NFL this year. I expect the Rams best effort possible and the Steelers to be unfocused, as they usually are when traveling west, having Bal on deck to boot! The Rams will win the turnover battle and win this outright.
    Jeff Fisher is 33-19 as a home dog and Tomlin is 0-9 vs an opponent off a loss. Book It!

    • Petefranklin

      Pick 5) Niners +6.5

    • Petefranklin

      Note Tomlin is 0-9 the first 4 games of the season vs. an opponent off a loss.
      Pit is also on a 12-22 ATS streak on the road.

  • 15-4-4 on essays this week.
    That’s more like it.

  • Tim Butler

    BYU +5.5 (loss) – This is my second year in Cheddar Bay, and the second year that my brother-in-law has known that I’ve been picking 6 games a week. He sometimes asks who I picked, but he’s never given me any recommendations, so when I got a text saying “I like BYU getting 6.5 against Michigan a lot. You should definitely take them”, It was a no-brainer. Mich 31 – BYU 0.

    NFL (6-3-1)
    AP: PACKERS -6.5 over chiefs

    RAMS +1 over steelers – Despite last week’s results, I still think the Rams are better than the Steelers.
    CARDS – 6.5 over 49ers
    bengals +2.5 over RAVENS
    ESSAY PANTHERS -3 over saints.

    I don’t think I have too much to say about this game that hasn’t already been said on here. The line is currently 9.5, and I feel a little dirty about getting it at 3, but we’re all in the same boat here, so it is what it is. I really don’t think Brees is worth 6.5 points, but the Panthers defense should be too much for Luke McCown to handle. Breaking news, Brees is going to be wearing a headset during the game so he can talk to Luke McCown, I expect this line to start reversing direction any minute now. Thanks Schefty. Go Bills. Go Browns.

    • we do need to establish and communicate a policy on line moves like this. it does feel kinda dirty and ad hoc management is sketchy since it’s probably that the EC will not be the first among us to catch on to the move.

      • Tim Butler

        Yea it’s a tough one. I’m not sure what the solution is. Can’t just remove it from the board after people have already made their picks. I sort of think that since everyone’s picking the games with the same line, you just have to roll with it, and let it be.

      • I think we just have to move it as soon as we notice the line is off and those who got in on the bad line get to keep it. It’s the best we can do.

        • This is what I was gonna suggest, as you can pinpoint the time a report came out with the news that shifted the line so much and the Spreadsheet is time-stamped.

          The one concern I thought of was that people could just jump on it early with a post/form submit, but then back off later if the line didn’t change as anticipated (Drew Brees played in this case). Does Mike/anyone else who handles the scoring/data set really want to deal with people placing picks then taking them off in hopes of getting a good line that never materialized fully? (Maybe this doesn’t involve much work with the new form submission, but just a possible scenario I saw arising).

          Only my second year and I remember it happening once with a Clemson game last year I believe (and I think that was it…?) So it doesn’t seem to be very common.

          Another possibility… Maybe you take away the POTY/Essay possibility on such lines unless they were clearly in before noticing the line was off as well – and just leave it open as a regular pick at the posted line, to minimize the effect it would have on everyone as a whole that couldn’t take advantage of it (for already using their POTY, Essay, etc.).

  • Dave Borcas

    Make my Colts essay play my play of the year please.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Rams Chargers Bucs Jets Packers
    ****Pats**** Essay that no one will have to read week.
    May I throw myself to the mercy of the vaunted executive committee and hope for an extra NFL pick?

    • subject is under discussion in EC. in the event the appeal is denied, what pick falls off the slate? i’ll drop jets until told otherwise.
      thanks and sorry.

      • Tim Butler

        This is a bit nit-picky, but as someone who knows nothing about college football and would love to pick 6 NFL games per week, I think it’d be a bit unfair to allow 6 NFL games to go through.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          One time in 4 years? And, I always pick 5 CFB and 1 NFL.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Drop the bucs if necessary please.

    • zarathustra

      I for one like to read your essays.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Masochist.

    • no go on the extra pick acto. sorry.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    First off I screwed up and didn’t get a college pick in last night. We finally sold our house and I had a few cocktails to celebrate and next thing you know ASU/USC has kicked off and I realize I didn’t make a college pick. Anyway. I’;ll submit 6 NFL picks and throw myself at the mercy of the Executive Comittee.

    Redskins (L) I hate the redskins. They’ve cost me a lot of cheddar points,

    Rams +1 – I’m trying this new thing where I look at the lines and try to find the line that looks to good to be true. Kind of like the rams line vs. the skins last week. From now on I’m going to go opposite of what looks obvious. We’ll see if it pays off.

    Panthers -3 This is a stale line think its up to 9.5 now. I’ll take advantage of the system.

    Ravens -2.5 – I like the Ravens at home. Just my gut feeling. Cinci is the better team but Dalton always seems to shit the bed in these spots. I’ll take a desperate 0-2 Ravens team at home vs Dalton on the rd .

    Eagles +2.5 – I really like the eagles in this spot. Revis has a bad Hammy and the Jets are playing on a short week. I’m hoping Chip can get the offensive engine rolling like he did in the 2nd half of the Atl game. Also feel like the Eagle dumpster fire is being made out to be a lot worse than it actually is. I think ATL is a very good team and we saw what this team can do when it gets going.

    Essay: Cleveland -3.5 – The raiders always play better at home and I think this line would be higher had they not beaten the Raiders last week (duh!). I like the Browns with McCown under center. You’ll see much more ball control from the Browns and more consistency. McCown should save us any unnecesarry turnovers and our defense will continue to create turnovers, Hopefully Haden has finally played himself into shape and we’ll see our shutdown corner this week, Should be another fun Sunday at First Energy,

    If the committee won’t afford me this exception please delete Ravens -2.5.

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      I’m strugglung I’ll take GB for the all play. I just like Rodgers at home. Delete Ravens.

      If I can’t do 6 NFL picks delete eagles

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts going with Rams +1 as my Pick of the Week. I like Jeff Fischer in a ground and pound type of game. I like the Rams D showing up and forcing Bell to touch the ball 30 times his first game back. I think they will shut down the passing game of Pittsburgh and I also think they will be able to control the clock against that D. This is the type of team that plays off their crowd and they will have a love crowd on Sunday bring home a victory. Hey….win/win….Steelers lose and DQuatts hits his PotW!

  • oxr

    Last-minute obligatory college pick: USC -5.5 over ASU, God help me.

    • oxr

      All-Play Chiefs +6.5 over Packers
      Colts -3 over Titans
      Bengals +2.5 over Ravens
      Bills +3 over Dolphins

      Essay Panthers -3 over Saints – Count me in on the attempt to exploit Wednesday’s lines. To be honest, I’d be taking this one, although probably not as an essay, even if Brees were starting, because so far the Saints have looked pretty knackered in all phases of the game. Early season Football Outsiders stats aren’t exactly gospel (in particular, they’re not adjusted for opponent strength yet) but even so, an #8-vs-#31 matchup with only three points doesn’t come along that often. And the Panthers are at home, too. Would like this better if Luke Kuechly [sic, I expect] were playing, but they survived his absence last week.

      The only thing that give me pause is the old principle that with the Cheddar pool so disproportionately on the Panthers we’re all setting ourselves up for a huge disappointment. Are you ready for the Luke McCown comeback narrative? He’s already got a national TV ad campaign…

  • AK47 in for MissySt.

    • dm to me
      Ari, Buf, Sea, Den GB

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Arizona and USC tonight.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Brownies and Pats.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        Broncos
        *Packers -6.5

        The difference in this game and the chance of a GB cover may come down to turnovers, which have gotten the better of the Chiefs lately. KC’s offense will need to score a lot of points to overcome Aaron Rodgers. It’s been 10 years since Alex Smith was the first pick in the draft while Rodgers was 24th (but you guys probably already knew that), and while the guy has absolutely nothing to prove, it would no doubt please Rodgers on a personal level to win big on Monday night football. It’s really a matter of the Packers defense creating turnovers and not allowing Jamaal Charles to run at will.

  • regarding the panthers/saints, the EC looked at this this morning and felt that since the brees status was unclear on wednesday and the books posted their lines anyway, we should take no extraordinary action here.

  • Its Only Money

    Toledo
    Texas A&M
    Northwestern
    Browns
    All Play – Chiefs

    Essay – Panthers POTY

    I kept going back and forth on whether or not this should be my POTY, with no Brees for the Saints I am going to have to jump on it.. I think the Panthers are the class of the NFC South. They have a very good defense and the Saints are really struggling right now. With no Drew Brees the Saints the struggles are really going to be amplified. The Saints are going to have to rely on the ground game and to control the clock. This game plan just won’t work this week. The Panther offense will do enough to put them out front and then the rushing attack will then shorten the game. I imagine the Panther D will put a lot of pressure on McCown and cause a lot of problems up front. They will stack the box daring him to beat them over the top. Luke is going to have a much rougher day than Josh I am hoping.

    Panthers win easily. I liked this game all week and should have gotten it in early as the line has gone to -9 online.

  • PJD19

    Utah over Oregon ***Essay***

    0-3 on essays this year, sooo time to turn things around. Not a whole lot of in depth analysis here, just a hunch that 13.5 is too much for Oregon to give up with their D as shaky as it is. Also I like the heavy underdog in a conference match up, when the underdog is a good team. Plus I feel some good mojo for Utah tonight on a personal level that I won’t bore everyone with, but it’s enough to matter, at least to me…and hopefully the football Gods.

    • Jmacdaddio

      Good pick… you heard it here first, Oregon will finish unranked this year.

  • The Iron Sheik

    Chiefs
    Marshall
    Arkansas
    Wisconsin
    Browns
    Usc***

    Now that Steve sarkisian’s back is against the wall it is time for him throw a few punches to regain some space after that whooping they received against Stanford. Juju is their all world wide receiver who I feel is ready to show his talents tonight against a stout asu d and the numbers ats aren’t in my favor but they are good enough for me to rely on usc for this essay pick.
    And the final deciding factor for me was the strength of there special teams with a strong return man who has the ability to break this game open with a big return. In a conference matchup like this it is going to take a big play to sway the momentum into the Trojans favor.

  • Uncle D

    packers essay..coming
    Umass
    SDSU
    WMU
    Raiders
    Steelers

  • CLEinMPLS

    Wisky -24.5
    Ravens -2.5
    Bills +3
    Lions +3
    Packers -6.5 (All Play)
    Texans -6.5 (Essay)

    Been a very rough year for me so far. To make matters worse, I got wrist surgery yesterday so I have been taking percocets for the past 24 hrs. Lord only knows how bad this week of picks will turn out. Despite the Bucs going on the road and beating a shitty Saints team last week, I still think they suck. Texans are 0-2 at home in a somewhat desperate situation early in the season. They will probably be without Hopkins, and Foster won’t be back till next week, but I don’t see the Bucs doing anything offensively in this one. I also really like BOB, and cant imagine one of his teams taking this game for granted. Probably see one of those Watt defensive TDs, too. And BTW, screw Axelrod.

  • ChuckKoz

    Ohio State -31.5 vs W Michigan
    Tennessee +2 at Florida
    ASU +5.5 vs USC
    Arizona +3.5 vs UCLA
    AP: Packers -6.5 vs Chiefs

    Essay: Oregon -13.5 vs Utah
    It should be noted that this number is way higher than the 10.5 I’m seeing now. But nonetheless I really like Oregon this week and I think they’ll be ready with urgency to avoid a second loss which would take them out of the title race. And even though they lost to Michigan State, I really liked that they still were able to score in bursts even on the road against a really tough Michigan State team. Meanwhile, Utah is at the top of the class in the pac 12, but they’re going to Eugene at night against a duck team that won’t take them lightly like they did last year. Oh and last year, Utah still ended up getting smashed by 20+ points. So I’m pretty confident Oregon can get them by two touchdowns this year at home, especially as their new QB continues to gain confidence.

  • trashycamaro

    Florida -2 over Tennessee My college plays are essentially blind dartboard tosses. But as a UF alum, and with the spread so small, this cannot be any other way

    Bucs +6.5 over Texans The Texans are really, really bad until Arian Foster comes back. (And if he does, this pick will likely change to another game).

    Essay: Panthers -3 over Saints This would have been an appropriate line for this season with a Drew Brees at 100%. Drew Brees may not play and even if he does he will not be at 100% operating efficiency. With Drew Bees, the Saints are ranked 28th on offense by DVOA. With Drew Brees. Sure, maybe the o-line is still jelling etc. but that is terrible for a Drew Brees offense. Add in a Carolina defense that is ranked 3, and we have a recipe for an easy cover. (In case you were curious, NO defense is 29th and Carolina’s offense is 18, and special teams are 30th and 25th, respectively).

    Bengals + 2.5 over Ravens The Ravens look really bad. All Suggs? No. Suggs + McPhee + Ngata? Now we’re getting somewhere. Also, offense is looking a little sideways. Will still finish better than the Browns though.

    Bills +3 over Dolphins Dolphins are looking rough and that Bills defense…this also means I am putting money on Tyrod Taylor on the road.

    Broncos -3 over Lions Forgot about this one on account of the late line. Broncos defense is much better this year, and they were pretty good to start with.

    Packers -6.5 over Chiefs I really don’t want to pick this game and you have to think Charles has some make up work on his mind after his atrocious national TV game. But, Aaron Rodgers has been unreal at Lambeau (I think you all the stats already and the Packers still have enough weapons if Lacy joins Nelson on the bench to win this game. My only concern is the Chiefs are great at keeping it close.

  • EASTERN CAROLINA +8.5…Idk, this just seems like a bigger number than it should be.

    TOLEDO -7.5…riding Kareem Hunt.

    DUKE +9. GT was unimpressive in person last week. If Duke can get a lead early and maintain gap responsibility on defense, they could win outright.

    MISS ST +2.5. This spread is being anchored by Auburn’s unreasonable, irrational pre-season ranking. Miss State can run the ball and play defense. Auburn is just ok.

    PACKERS -6.5… at home with the best QB in football. His receivers have caught more TD’s in the past week than KC receivers have in the past 20 games.

    CHARLIE MUNGER’S MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:

    Hopefully there’s a contingent here who knows that Charlie Munger is just as much responsible for Berkshire Hathaway’s success as Warren Buffet is. But if not, you can suck wisdom from him in one of my favorite blogs on the net: farnamstreetblog.com. And my essay percentage was noticeably better when I went the humorous route, or got extra creative piecing together parodies of some of the best lyricists this world has ever seen: Thomas Sterns Elliot, and Vanilla Ice.

    However, Mungerism’s are the best:

    “Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy”

    “In my whole life, nobody has ever accused me of being humble. Although humility is a trait I much admire, I don’t think I quite got my full share.”

    “Our ideas are so simple that people keep asking us for mysteries when all we have are the most elementary ideas.”

    “I’m not entitled to have an opinion unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people who are in opposition.

    ”The number one idea, is to view a stock as an ownership of the business [and] to judge the staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage. Look for more value in terms of discounted future cash flow than you’re paying for. Move only when you have an advantage. It’s very basic. You have to understand the odds and have the discipline to bet only when the odds are in your favor.”

    In this case, Cam and the Gang started the week with a 64% chance to win. Vegas now gives the Panthers a nearly 80% chance to win the game, but I’ve got the option to purchase at the lower rate. Fairly simple.

    PANTHERS -3.

    • zarathustra

      Where are the rolos?
      #weisweisbaby

  • Hopping on Navy for starters.

    • #2, New Mexico

      • #3, Nevada. (Apologies to the piecemeal submits.)

        • #4, Army.

          • All-play, Chiefs.

            Essay, Titans.

            I for one was not unimpressed with the Titans’ last week. That was a fired up and solid Browns defense and not for nothing but Mariota still managed over 250 pass yards, 2 TDs, 0 picks. For the first and maybe only time in the Manziel era, the Browns won the fumble battle with JFF fumbling twice without losing one while Browns plant Terrence West contributed a lost fumble to Mariota’s two. POINT IS.. one smart big scoring play, one broken big scoring play, and +3 in turnovers don’t necessarily reflect a bad Whisenhunt team. On the contrary, they stared down a 21-0 halftime score and pushed it back to a one score game with four minutes left. Pretty gutty.

            On the other side, the Colts are doing their best end-days-of-Harbaugh Niners impersonation. From Stampede Blue, “… gotten much worse when Pagano was only offered a small, one-year extension this offseason. It sounds like Jim Irsay isn’t completely sold on Pagano yet either, as Irsay reportedly is inclined to not be as patient as he was during the Peyton Manning era … wouldn’t surprise me at all if Chuck Pagano isn’t coaching the Colts in 2016.”

            So the Grigson-Pagano feud is out in the open. Antsy hands-on-ish owner who’s been known to imbibe makes for tension, drama, and distraction. Aging roster. Expensive past their prime free agents. Pressure to ‘win now.’ These aren’t the Colts from January’s AFC Champ game and let’s be real: that team was fairly exposed as soft as hell.

            Fact is that Mariota rates higher than Luck by PFF today. Yeah sure Luck had to play against the Jets last week but I wouldn’t be too quick to discount the Browns’ defense. He’ll face a softer pass rush from the Colts and a depleted secondary — “Butler hasn’t practiced this week, Toler has returned to practice .. but I still highly doubt he will play. 4th CB, rookie D’Joun Smith, is on IR. That leaves Jalil Brown and Sheldon Price, who played well in training camp and preseason but struggled last week.”

            From a capping standpoint, I’m happy to be the only Titans picker in the this pool and the Colts look to be the most public play on the board in Vegas. And I get a full three points at home. (If ever Cheddar devises a way to tease games, this would be one.)

          • I like this Titans play a lot. GL.

  • clayII

    Mizzou (+3) / Kentucky
    UMass (+29) / ND

    • clayII

      Arizona St (-5.5) / USC

      • clayII

        Texans (-6.5) / Tampa
        Chiefs (+6.5) GB
        Steelers (-1) / Rams essay

  • Concierge

    Va Tech -8.5
    Texas +3
    Purdue +1
    Army Essay +2.5
    Michigan -5.5
    Chiefs +6.5

    Army is a rebuilding team as is EMU…both teams have struggled early on but I think this game comes down to one thing.. Who can run the ball the best.. I think its so difficult to stop the triple option on one week notice. It’s an attack that actually gave OSU a hard time last season (Navy) runs a similar style of offense. Army has lost 3 games by a combined 10 points. EMU gives up 315 yards on the ground per game.. Army may run for 500 today.. GO USA! !

    • here is a concise, spot-on essay. 529 yds rushing late in the 4thQ.

  • Mikey

    Continuing the Costanza and taking it one step further, taking a nap under my desk instead of writing an essay, this will be my off week.

    Arizona State +6.5
    Ucla -3.5
    St Louis Rams -1
    Brandon Weeden +2 (this proves it’s the George)
    SF 49ers -6.5
    Packers -6.5

    Gonna refrain from the Frowns/Axelrod feud since I’ve had beers with both.

  • Jmacdaddio

    I will regret this:

    Bowling Green -1
    Rutgers -13

    Remainder of picks and sheet entry to follow.

    • Jmacdaddio

      Rutgers -13
      Bowling Green -1
      Utah +14
      Arizona State +5.5
      Packers -6.5
      Essay: Jets -2.5

      This is a statement opportunity for the Todd Bowles Jets. They’ve been playing well enough to make the faithful forget all about the sucker punch that shelved Geno Smith. This is a team still dominated by Rex Ryan’s personnel however without the Rex Ryan sideshow. Meanwhile, a “short” journey down I-95 (maybe 90 minutes unless it’s rush hour, or when the Pope drops in for a cheeseteak), the Iggles are in free fall. Chip Kelly’s gambles have not paid off. Sam Bradford is damaged goods, and the answer at QB is not Mark Sanchez – the talent isn’t around him to allow his game management skills to shine.

  • 1) Panthers -3
    2) Colts -3
    3) Tennessee +2
    4) NC St. -17
    5) Packers -6.5 (All-Play)
    6) Indiana -3 (ESSAY)

    It appears to be a gloomy day today in Winston Salem for the Demon Deacons homecoming game vs. Indiana today. Not sure it is raining now or even will during the game, but less than ideal conditions could bode well for Indiana seeing as their pass defense is about as bad as it comes (believe I saw 392 yards allowed per game in the air by IU, maybe the most…?) and that is the one chance I feel Wake Forest has/had to keep this game within reach. For as bad as the IU defense is, their offense has shown the ability to score on FBS teams (37 points/game vs. FBS), while Wake’s has not (17 points/game vs. FBS).

    There may be the “trap game” feel to this, with IU getting Ohio State next week and Wake Forest possibly getting a larger crowd/emotional boost than normal with it being homecoming, but I’m not buying those factors as enough of a reason to believe IU doesn’t handle Wake Forest with ease.

  • zarathustra

    Giants (W) ***

    Indiana -3 over Wake Forest
    I have watched both of the last two Wake games so feel like I might be getting to know them a little bit. They should be able to move the ball–especially through the air–on a shitty IU defense, but they turn the ball over a whole lot and I don’t think they will be able to keep up.

    Vikings -2.5 over Chargers
    Last week saw the Chargers struggle on the road in an early game against a physical Bengals team. This week they are on the road again playing an early game against a physical Vikings team that happens to run the same defense they strugled with last week. Tough spot.

    Buccaneers +6.5 over Texans
    I confess that I used to hope the Browns would send a draft pick to the Pats for Ryan Mallet. He played well in a pro-system under a pro coach at Arkansas. Led his team through the SEC to a BCS bowl, was drafted low due to an off the field incident, then spent years learning under Brady, McDaniels, and BOB. But I’ve watched every game he has started for Houston and I see quite a bit of Derek Anderson. The Texans may be desperate, but with no Arian Foster and Mallet at qb this line seems too high to me.

    Arizona St +5.5 over USC
    I also like the Bobcats today and the Bills tomorrow, but decided to make this my final pick. I’m not a fan of this Arizona St team and was toying with taking USC, but I had a bit of a vision while in a self-induced hypnogogic trance the other day so I might as well roll with that here.

  • limaontinder

    BYU is the best team Michigan has played so far this year, and they’ve already lost once. Plus, to see Harbaugh’s bowl chances basically get put to bed in what will be a string of bad BIg Ten losses to follow is just too great not to root for. Sure, they’ve got a better line and some running backs, but when you got rando ESPN radio hosts predicting that Harbaugh will coach the Colts next year, a good line and some running backs don’t much matter. BYU helps push him out the door.

    • Confirming that this is the essay. And the other picks are ASU Cards Texans Bengals Packers BYU.

    • maxfnmloans

      Are these the same ESPN analysts who were procliaming that “Oakland is still in play” as Harbaugh was on a plane to Ann Arbor? Even if they lose today (possible) and go 4-4 in the B1G they still get invited to the Tomato Soup bowl. The only people who think Harbaugh is leaving anytime soon are the ones who have a vested interest in seeing Michigan fail, or NFL writers who just cannot fathom someone purposefully leaving the Shield.

      In fact I’ll bet you right now Urban leaves Columbus before Harbaugh leaves Michigan.

  • RDGinCLE

    From the Old Angle to a plane bound for Las Vegas, here are Brosefs picks bound to regress considering the start. Going with three college faves after cashing with Cincy as a dog. Using my non essay week on……….

    *Cal -4 Running out of time to buy low on Goff. Should bounce back and sneak into the top 25 after escaping vs a bad Texas team

    Illinois -6 Similarly, should bounce back after laying a complete egg last week vs what’s hopefully an over achieving UNC team.

    PSU -15.5 Dont love this but another PSU cover seems likely. Still under valued due to their week one performance, still have a top 5 overall pick for a QB. SDSU team flying all the way across the country for a paycheck.

    • RDGinCLE

      Will add Jax +13.5. NE not historically good ATS as double digit favorites, and I dont see anyone else on here picking them. Seems as good as any.

      All Play – Pack +6.5 Not a full touchdown for Rogers at home on MNF. OK

  • Peter Markos

    The Patriots are an angry team. They are motivated from the Spygate/Deflategate bad press. Gronk is unstoppable.
    The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, the Chiefs don’t.
    Seattle is desperate for a win, they will get it done.
    UT is 0-10 against Florida. This team blew a big lead against Oklahoma at home. This team doesn’t have it to beat the curse on the road.
    Riding ND all season long, despite the injuries
    Michigan and the Harbaugh beat BYU. They are not Nebraska.

  • squeekycleen

    Will post NFL tomorrow but for now:

    Essay: Texas: Joke line here. Texas is a pool of ineptness who has done nothing but look completely atrocious so far. Plus, the have the coaching sideshow with Strong, who everyone must defend to the hilt as a great guy even though his team looks completely inept (secret: the disciplinarian style only works in 2015 if kids think you will make them professionals). On the flip side, there is Ok St, who has looked pretty potent and is up and coming. And then they throw out this line at 3-4. Laughable. I’ll take Texas.

    Also:
    Central Florida

    • squeekycleen

      nfl:

      lions
      rams
      niners

      all play:

      chiefs

  • TheKardiacKid

    Skins +4 – Loss
    Tennessee +2
    Notre Dame -29
    Oakland +3.5
    KC +6.5

    Essay: Michigan -5.5
    Harbaugh has the TSUN/scUM/TTUN (or whatever idiotic acronym you want to call Michigan) rolling. This should be of little surprise. I think Michigan still needs a bigger style win. BYU is it (who would have ever thought BYU would be). Michigan starts making OSU honks nervous after today.

  • jpftribe

    Hey Mike and co-
    I told myself I wasn’t going to enter the Cheddar competition because I was overseas and don’t see any of the CFB games. But the reality is I was just too lazy to commit to writing a weekly essay. I found myself reading all of the weekly threads and feeling guilty for not actually playing. If I can pick up BPL, World Cup Rugby, Australian Rules Football and Test Cricket, surely I can take a shot at a CFB game once a week. So I paid the Cheddar to play the Cheddar, if it’s alright with all of you. If not, take the contribution as I’ve gotten my money’s worth in entertainment value already.

    Picks –
    Steelers minus 1 vs Rams. This just seems too easy.
    Ratbirds minus 2.5 at home vs Cincy. No lose situation. Either I win or Ravens fall to 0-3.
    Colts minus 3 at Titans. Luck really doesn’t suck.
    Niners plus 6.5 at Cards. Too many points for an NFC West division game.
    All play – Packers minus 6.5 at home vs the Chiefs. Andy Reid is vastly over rated and Rodgers at home is not.

    Essay pick – UNCC minus 10 over FAU

    I lived in Charlotte for 15 years, most of it a few miles from the UNCC campus and it is really a second hometown. My kids are native Charlotteans. Had no idea they are playing football there now. Turns out this will be the first night the 2-1 49er’s football program is played under the lights and a record crowd is expected. Well, a record for the first 4 games anyway. So it’s looking pretty good.

    A quick Google of UNCC vs FAU gives you Volleyball as the top hits. Type in football and you get the FAU game notes pdf.

    The game notes pdf is 30 pages, 25 of which are rosters and stats. Page one highlights 6 keys to the game which talks about:
    – how important freshman and special teams have been in their 3 losses this year
    – How 2 starting QB’s have hit 7 different receivers
    – a transfer student has their first sack of the year for a safety
    Page two talks about how well the team is doing in the classroom, with credits to a future pilot and a kid that can play piano, really, really well.
    Pages 3,4 and 5 go into great depth on the head coach and his prolific football experience. 4 paragraphs on Arkansas. 10 paragraphs on Wisconsin, replete with his notable relationship with JJ Watt, and a few more on Pitt, Iowa State and Drake. At the end of page 5 is a blurb about the Cleveland Browns Rob Housler being an FAU alum, which seals the deal. Go Niners!

    • Every damn one of the likes! We’ll stake you with 3.5 points and holy hell you’re essaying the team I lost with last week when they gave up 70+ to MTSU.

      • jpftribe

        All set with the form. My thanks to the, ahem…. Executive Committee!

    • you’re all set in the form. feel free to kick it around, i’ll book for you if need be.

    • mmmmsnouts

      I went to USF when they were in the same league as Charlotte. Those basketball games were always a lot of fun. Wishing them the same success we had out of the box in football.

  • thatsfine

    Cincy (win)
    Duke +9 – Interestingly, the loser of this game has won the ACC Coastal division the past 2 years.
    ULL -8
    UWash +4 – I worked at Cal for 3 years, lived in Berkeley for 5 years, I still don’t believe they actually have a football team, so this is an easy pick
    Chiefs +6.5 – Chiefs have 3 extra days to prepare for this one.
    Nevada +2 (essay)
    Nevada (1-2) has been beaten but not embarrassed against two top 20 teams – Arizona and TA&M. They actually hung in there with A&M. Holding the Aggies to 44 in College Station was an accomplishment for the Nevada defense. QB Tyler Stewart, in his first year starting after the departure of Cody Fajardo, has played respectably in both games. Buffalo has a veteran QB and reeled off a win last week 33-15. But, looking at the stats they were outgained by FAU 490-290. They won because of 3 defensive TDs, that’s not likely to repeat this week. Everyone should fade me here, I’m picking one under .500 but 0-3 on essays so far… or maybe I’m due.

  • mmmmsnouts

    Backed Bama when they lost a home game at night and they had about 6 fluke/miracle plays go against them. Sums up the last year-plus for me in this contest nicely. Let’s try and do better, or just get luckier.

    ALL PLAY: Packers -6.5 vs. Chiefs. I’m not going to make a hero call on Andy Reid.

    Falcons -2 vs. Cowboys
    Jets -2.5 vs. Eagles

    Panthers -3 vs. Saints – This is definitely unfair. This line was set long before Drew Brees was ruled out. It is only because there is honor among degenerates that I’m not making this my PICK OF THE YEAR. Everyone come get your free point(s).

    Arizona +3.5 vs. UCLA – I don’t like the Bruins’ chances on the road without Myles Jack to get the defense set up correctly. There won’t be time for UCLA to get it done from the sideline because RichRod runs an insane pace (averaged over 84 plays per game last year). Also appreciate the half point.

    ESSAY: Texas +3 vs. Oklahoma State

    Texas fans have not had a fun couple of years but hope is springing eternal. They finally got rid of their world-class asshole of an athletic director, and Jerrod Heard showed more ability in one game than any Longhorns QB has since Colt McCoy left. Oklahoma State hasn’t been challenged, nor have they been really impressive so far. (That score last week got out of control because UTSA gift-wrapped them a bunch of points in garbage time with special teams turnovers. And beating UTSA doesn’t mean nearly as much as it did two years ago.)

    Most importantly, though, is this: 68% of the public is on Oklahoma State, yet the line has either stayed in place all week or moved slightly towards Texas. I believe this is what Cheddar veterans refer to as a stinky fish. As Davy Crockett once said, you all may go to hell, and I will go to Texas.

  • Capitalgg

    This season has started off perfectly miserably. Here is the exhaustive list of teams in college football that I’ve determined to be actually good:

    Typically, I’ll latch onto a good team and ride them. Since such a team, let alone multiples, does not exist, I’m currently floundering.

    So I’m changing some things up this week to try to right the ship. Instead of all college except the mandatory NFL pick, I’m playing additional NFL picks this week. Let’s see how this goes…

    [All-play] Packers -6.5 v. Chiefs: I’m not a big KC believer, see a GB victory by 10+ here.
    1. Bowling Green -1 @ Purdue: Matt Johnson for Heisman.
    2. Falcons -2 @ Cowboys: I relish any betting opportunity against Brandon Weeden.
    3. Lions +3 v. Broncos: Broncos have won 2 coin flip games. Lions due for a solid week.
    4. Bills +3 @ Dolphins: Bills are the better team. Dolphins have “to London next week” distraction.

    So #iufb4gameday is a real thing. Ohio State will travel to Bloomington next week for the biennial Memorial Stadium at capacity photo session and blowout football game. In the meantime, IU is unbeaten and on the short-list to host Gameday next week should the Hoosiers and Buckeyes both still be unbeaten come Sunday morning. Lee, Kirk and the crew have never been to Bloomington because Indiana football is, well, Indiana football. So Gameday may never return. So I believe the Hoosiers will seize the opportunity afforded to them by housing Wake Forest this week and Corso will travel to his old stomping grounds only to don the Brutus head. Doesn’t matter, #iufb4gameday is the best thing on the internet right now and we should root for that. So give me some Indiana -3 at Wake.

    Other Considerations (LW: 5-3, Season: 16-21):
    BYU +5.5 @ Michigan
    Missouri +3 @ Kentucky
    Houston -16.5 v. Texas St.
    Virginia Tech -8.5 @ East Carolina
    Toledo -7.5 v. Arkansas St.
    Georgia Tech -9 @ Duke
    Ole Miss -24.5 v. Vanderbilt
    Illinois -6 v. MTSU
    Tennessee +2 @ Florida
    Massachusetts +29.5 @ Notre Dame
    Mississippi St. +2.5 @ Auburn
    Boston College -4 v. Northern Illinois
    Oklahoma St. -3 @ Texas
    Bengals +2.5 @ Ravens

  • jdoepke

    Welp, not great games this week. I like a lot of dogs. Here we go:
    Packers -6.5 (AP)
    Texas +3
    Utah +13.5
    Tx Tech +7
    Duke +9

    Kent St +9 (Essay)
    I can’t tell you a single player on either team. Here’s what I know. Line opened at anwyere from 9-11 and is down to 6.5 and I get it at 9. 70% of public on Marshall but lion’s share of money with the Flashes. SVP likes Kent at +6.5 so I feel good about my 9 points and #MACTION. Kent 24 – Marshall 23

  • FTCMikeD

    Week 4 Picks:
    Missy St +2.5 over @Auburn
    @Arizona +3.5 over UCLA
    @Washington +4 over California
    @Panthers -3 over Saints
    AP: Chiefs +6.5 over Pack
    ******
    What happened to the Lions? They lost Suh, they lost Fairley and Mosley and their spirit. This was a team that was 11-5 last year and this year they look putrid. Haloti Ngata is a shell of himself and possibly took some of the mojo away from the Ratbirds but his luggage must have gotten lost along the way. Peterson ran all over the Lions last week and the Broncos have a pretty good stable of RBs to re-do the favor this week. Stafford was only sacked once last week, but got knocked around and was pretty beat up the week before in SD. Denver’s defense is scary and they will be licking their chops waiting to go after Stafford. Not to mention their tremendous secondary. I also think Stafford may not like the spotlight of the Sunday night game.

    Peyton Manning on the other hand, loves the spotlight and always comes up big in prime time games. He will be extra rested from last week’s Thursday night matchup as well. Peyton still has DT to throw to and the speedy Emmanuel Sanders. Don’t write him off just yet. Look for the Donkeys to cover the 3 points in a big Sunday night win.

  • Petefranklin

    I’m down with the Beavers tonight for a point. I’d rather not try “junking” a tree.

  • bupalos

    Il Papa is in town and I have a confession: This may come as a shock, but I first started “playing” this contest specifically to rail at the wickedness and delusions of its mostly insufferable contestants. The idea was to whip them into shape and make them into a kind of “shock troops for Jesus” sort of a group. Except for Bupalos, not Jesus. Then they would be marched out here to the sticks and put to work tending beeves while singing songs they made up about Don Cockroft. You can see the allure if not the practicality.

    Now in the golden days of this contest, this made perfect sense–I tell it to the young here that only know these modern times– for in those days you couldn’t throw a stick in this forum without hitting two or three solid yeomen (and yeowomen)– salt of the earth types that still had the sense of Adam (and Eve) about them. They’d climb up on walls and battlements, towers and windows and chimney tops, with babies in their arms. All week they’d wait for Bupalos to post his wisdom, at which point they’d shout “Yes! Houston Oilers +4 over Steelers” or “Bills, giving points to the Bengals! Thank you dear Bupalos.”

    Now of course, times are different, and frankly it’s hard to see who exactly could even be trusted with the precious beeves of Bupalos or who has ears to hear him. “Bowwling Greeeen over Purdoo” the crowd drawls. “Reds**ns over Giants” and they actually type all the letters, “r-e-d-s-k-i-n-s,” with the fingers their mothers gave them.

    Whence the decline? Wherefore, how? what? Does it have something to do with the contest itself? With the example set by the “winners” thereof? While I’ll leave it to my gentler readers to decide whether moral sensibilities are advanced or regressed by the likes of bald people, women, Greeks, women, bald Greeks, other people, etc. etc., I think we all know the answer here and I won’t make us all blush by saying it out loud. But then what’s to be done? Do we build some sort of a wall to keep these elements out, perhaps even one with a big beautiful door to let the (very) few good ones back in? That would cost mucho dinero. Do we shut down the entire site in order to rid ourselves of those ghoulish brain-harvesters who hack apart our stillborn dream, legs kicking, fingers typing? That would be to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    We shall do none of these. What we shall do is, like Socrates, descend. Descend to this latter day Piraeus in order to lead back the true cognoscenti among you to an Acropolis of the soul. An acropolis entirely free of anything Greek or bald or female or anything like that. What we shall do, to put it simply, is win. This is my pledge to you, dear Cheddarmates. Those with ears to hear will follow, for the wisdom of these picks will be heard and followed.

    And now my votes.

    Cleveland Browns. First-off, Browns in Brown is an excellent idea considering the passionate Passion-Red numbers are nearly invisible. This means the only way the Raiders can “find the Mingo” is by looking for the tall fellow loping the wrong way or the guy Derek Carr tripped over last play in his mad panic to look “presidential.” The defense has progressed to where only way to beat the Browns is to find the Mingo, and while we still have at 2.5 of them, they won’t be able to read the #53 or #31 on the other ones either. Meanwhile, even though we won’t have Johnny Flap-Jacks playing beta-ball for 1 or 2 drives and will have to endure the maddening boredom of a more effective QB*, this Raiders defense appears to have a whole lotta nothing they can hang their hat on. They played in a brutal climate last week this zero-expectation franchise wound up with one of those “pressure’s off now” wins when the raisins shrivelled like Art Model’s bloated corpse in the 95 degree sunshine. They’ll fly across the country and sleepwalk their way through 3 ints and 1 buttfumble (which will henceforth be called “The Real Butt-fumble) as Carr bitches out his O-line by rolling his eyes at them “like a leader would.”

    CMFB -3.5 for the win, CMFB for the essay. CMFB for America.

    Additional votes:

    Bears +15 @ seahawks – Cripes the Bears really are terrible, but the SeaChickens or any NFL team will play to the competition when things are this cakey. There can be no legit +15 lines in the NFL.

    Bills +3 @ Dolphins – +3 means these teams are being rated even on a neutral field. I don’t know who buys that. I don’t. Position group by position group it’s pretty much the Bills and I’d take the QB too.

    Rice +34.5 @ baylor +34.5 lines SHOULD exist in the NCAA, but not in games where there’s any kind of story beyond “OMG come on they can’t schedule that.”

    ULMonroe +38 @ Bama.

    Texas Tech

    *Everything is relative yo.

    • bupalos

      Wait I didn’t pick the all-play. And I don’t wanna pick the all play. Doesn’t the committee have to offer up some kind of reasoning when it’s going to ruin everyone’s weekend like this? I guess we’ll reluctantly scratch the Bills and take the Pack in this incredibly important lopsided matchup between out of conference non-rivals where the more likable team (the pack, obvs) has a bad number. The Chiefs are the better pick but it would ruin the game for me on the very off chance that I were to get to watch it. So pack it is.

      Maybe next week lets have a bonus where you bet the over/under on how much of the field thinks the committee’s all-play choice is bad.

      • Per usual, the Exec. Comm. did not take this All Play selection lightly. What game would you have recommended? UCLA/Arizona would have been the choice otherwise but we figured it was time to hit the NFL after 3 college All Plays in the first 3 weeks and another college All Play on tap for week 5 (ND at Clemson). Remember, we’re looking for the most objectively interesting matchup from a national perspective. Looking back, I guess Steelers at Rams could arguably have been a better choice but we always try to pick All Plays that are on national TV to keep folks from having to pick games that they can’t (at least theoretically) watch. We welcome and encourage feedback on the All Play selections but please understand the criteria we are working with here. TIA.

        • bupalos

          First of all the appropriate response to my mindless bitching would be “shut up you ?@#!ing hillbilly, you wouldn’t know a good all-play if it rolled out to that filthy sheep-cote you call home and bit you in the butt.”

          But the nationally-televised point is admittedly something I didn’t consider and absolves the exec committee of any blame. Otherwise I would say Cinci and the Raisins was the biggest NFL game on the board.

  • HitTheHorns

    1) Redskins +4 – LOSS

    2) **Essay Philadelphia Eagles +2.5**

    I had a 6AM drive to Columbus this Monday from West Virginia for a work thing. As Howard Stern was replaying Jeff the Drunk clips I’ve heard 100 times and since my WWE spotify channel wouldn’t work thru Ohio farm country, I decided to listed to Mike and Mike. It was after that ride I decided if the Jets won on MNF that I would essay the Eagles this week, so here we are. Troy Aikman told Dan Patrick he consided hanging himself at halftime of the Eagles game last week. Joe Buck cracked Tim Tebow jokes in the 4th quarter. Mike Greenberg got to make statements like “The Eagles can’t run the ball” or “The Eagles can’t rush the passer.” Amazing insight. Some on ESPN wondered (Mike Golic) if Chip Kelly isn’t “trying hard” because he knows he could make millions at any college job he wants if he fails in Philly. On and on it went. Sal Pal making cheesesteak jokes while standing outside the stadium. Tedy Bruschi telling me that if the players don’t believe in the system, it doesn’t matter how smart the head coach is. Look at this, only one lonely soul picks Philly to win this week: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

    It was only two weeks ago that 11 of these 14 paid experts picked Philly to win on the road against Atlanta. And they almost did! Missed FG from being 1-1. They’ve played one good half this year. Jets are on a short week, and I think Philly is going to run them off the field and just uptempo Revis and Cromartie off the field. I will grab the value on Philly while I can.

    3) St. Louis Rams +1 – I can’t imagine people are rushing to bet the Rams after watching Washington, the team that just beat them, last night against the Giants. 81% on Pittsburgh as of this writing, yet the line sticks. Hmmm.

    4) Oregon State +15.5 – getting college pick done tonight.

    5) All Play on Monday

    6) SuperContest Least Picked team – TBD.

    • HitTheHorns

      Carolina Panthers -3
      Green Bay Packers -6.5

  • Dave Borcas

    Week #4
    Boise -2.5
    Nevada +2
    Va Tech -8.5
    Panthers -3
    Colts -3 (essay)
    Packers -6.5 (all play)
    I am feeling good about my “Colts are over rated” prediction I made in August. I do think the 13-14 win predictions for the Colts was way over the top. That said, I do think they are a 10-11 win team that will win the division and battle deep into the playoffs. The Colts also started 2014 at 0-2, so they know what this feels like. Its hard to believe they did not do more to upgrade their O line. Its sort of like parking your Lamborghini on 34th and St Clair over night. This may be hard to believe, but the Colts will have the best OL in this game, especially with Chance Warnaco out this week. The Browns, yes the Browns sacked marital 7 times last week. The kid still looked pretty good, but the hits are going to take a toll. The Colts front seven will also not give up the runs that the Titans were able to spring against the Browns. The Titans secondary may get Jason McCourty back this week but he will not be 100%. I see Andrew Luck hitting on some big plays and Frank Gore getting some running room as the Colts get a fairly easy win, at least I hope so.
    On a side note I see the Browns playing another good game. The offense should be more ball control and less big play as they beat the Raiders 27-17. Gooooooooooooo BROWNS!!!!!!!!!!

  • Nick

    BGSU at Purdue
    Tennessee +2 vs Florida
    Packers -6.5 vs Chiefs
    Bills +3 vs Fins
    Falcons -2 at Cowboys
    Broncos -3 at Lions

    The Lions are banged up and injured. Stafford simply isn’t that good and isn’t getting protection. Here’s a Twitter quote after their Vikings loss, “Stafford was beat up so much, he didn’t even know from which wound he was bleeding all over himself.” Detroit’s starting linebacker, DevAndre Levy has been out for a month and there is a rumor that he has been infected with a “Chilean Parasite”. Ok then.

    Then I realize that Jim Caldwell is still their coach, and that makes me shake my head.

    Denver is 2-0 even though Peyton played very poorly against the Chiefs last Thursday night and still got the win. I love Peyton on 10 days’ rest. There just aren’t a lot of games left for Peyton to get a change to sling it in a dome. I think he takes advantage and puts up a solid performance to
    blow this one out.

  • All-Play: Packers -6.5 vs. Chiefs
    Redskins (L)
    Michigan -5 vs. BYU
    Texas Tech +7 vs. TCU
    Ohio +10.5 vs. Minny
    **ESSAY**Kent St. +9 vs. Marshall**ESSAY**

    1 – The number of touchdowns scored against the Golden Flash defense in their last two games
    3 – Rank in the nation of KSU’s total defense
    25 – Tackles for losses over the last two games
    1,500 – The number of free shirts to be given away to Kent State’s freshmen, freshmen love t-shirts

    I have a plethora of thoughts on this game. None of which are particularly coherent. I reek of desperation for an essay win and it’s not an attractive scent. My heart picked this game and then my brain looked up a few expert opinions and I faltered. I typed a sentence for Texas Tech, and then I backspaced it out of existence.

    The last time Kent State beat Marshall was 1978. I’m not asking for a win, just a cover. But I think they could win, I really do. I suspect Marshall is not thrilled to be crossing the border, back into the heart of it all. Kent State’s offense has been lacking at best…but then maybe there’s not that much for Marshall to plan for? I’m hoping the defense turns the ball over and runs it in for some points here and there and the offense sucks little enough to give their defense the breaks it deserves.

    What I’m trying to say here, is I’m imagining Kent, OH on Saturday, 75 degrees, overcast, foliage turning colors, first official game of autumn, and it sounds pretty darn nice. The freshmen are going to drink, and the t-shirts will motivate them to actually make it into the stadium for the first time since mom and dad dropped them off after a final run to Target, and it’s going to be great. I just know it.

    Just for funsies:

    Missy St. +2 vs. Auburn
    USC -5.5 vs. Arizona St.
    Browns -3.5 vs. Raiders
    Washington +4 vs. California
    FIU +14.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
    Stanford -15.5 vs. Oregon St.
    Vanderbilt +24.5 vs. Ole Miss

  • RCLA

    This is the shittiest slate of shit games I have ever seen. All the lines went the wrong way from the time I first looked at them, presumably because I’m a rube and my sentiments anticipated the public money – OSU went up, Miss went down, etc. And they aren’t really interesting either. This is the kind of slate people who know what they are doing get rich on, but I’m not that guy. I’m that other guy. The one with no money and a serious drinking problem (specifically that I can’t do it any more – THAT IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM).

    Anyway, I’ll stick with OSU and Vandy. I can’t prove it, but I think Oregon is a fraud. Florida isn’t even a fraud. They’re like “hey y’all, we suck!” and people are like “nah, you’re alright, Chris Leak brings a men’s prayer meeting into Aaron Hernandez’s prison.” They aren’t alright.

    Chiefs was a coin flip. Don’t care.

    The only game really like is the Colts -3 at Tennessee. I just don’t understand. I mean, Tennessee has played 2 of the 5 worst offenses in the league the first two weeks and Indy has played 2 of the 5 best defenses. I think the implied 24-21 score here is giving the Titans defense a LOT of credit they don’t deserve. I’m not sure Indy can stop anyone, but I’m pretty sure the Colts can score when they want to against this team. I’ll lay the points.

    This is the second time in three weeks I’ve made the Colts my essay, and it didn’t go well last time….

    Down, down I come;
    Like glistering Phaethon,
    Wanting the manage of unruly jades

  • HarbaughHandshakes was on the Skins last night via twitter.

  • Matt Borcas

    Tennessee +2 over Florida: Tennessee is on the verge of a real breakthrough.
    NC State -17 over South Alabama
    Miss. St. +2.5 over Auburn: Is there something I’m missing here? I realize this game’s at Jordan-Hare, but what has Auburn done to deserve to be favored over MSU? Just look at each team’s respective performance vs. LSU.
    Colts -3 over Titans
    Chiefs +6.5 over Packers: KC has had a ton of time to rest up and prepare for this one, and their loss to Denver was pretty flukey.

    ESSAY: Ohio State -31.5 over Western Michigan
    I find this game similar to last year’s OSU-Kent State tilt, which the Buckeyes won 66-0. OSU is smarting from a surprisingly lackluster performance, and the nonsensical “overrated” talk has already begun. As such, I expect them to come out of the gates with something to prove and utterly dominate all four quarters of play. Cardale knows his job’s on the line here (and, by extension, his chances of going high in the 2016 draft), and so he has no reason to hold back against WMU. He should be able to pick apart the Broncos’ defense at will, and Zeke’s due for a field day as well. The fact that WMU kept it close against Michigan State does give me pause, but they had an entire offseason to prepare for that one. I’m betting that they’ll be demoralized by how overmatched they are against a motivated OSU squad and pack it in early on in the ballgame. Roll damn Bucks.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Essay BG

    Purdue just stinks. The QB change helps, but Purdue just stinks. And BG does not. BG routed Maryland, simply ran out of gas against Tennessee to make it more lopsided than it was and I don’t know what happened late against Memphis but BG has a legit QB, several receivers who either did or were supposed to play at a higher level and a coach who’s going places the way Purdue’s coach thought he was when he was at Kent State. But he took the Purdue job. And the 17,000 at Ross-Ade Stadium Saturday will see BG operate at a very high level and win. My only concern is this seems too easy

    Also

    Packers
    UMass
    Raiders
    Texas A&M
    Mizzou

  • pateslvrblk

    Pack, Mich, Cal, Panthers, Raiders.
    Cards over Niners essay to follow

    • pateslvrblk

      This year’s Niners are a lot different from the Super Bowl Niners of 2012. I mean a lot different. Gone are Alex Smith, Gore, Crabtree, Manningham, Iupati, Goodwin, ADavis, McDonald, Sopoaga, JSmith, Aldon Smith, Willis, Rogers, Brown, Whitner, Goldson. And Greg Roman. And Jim Harbaugh. And Candlestick. The thing is, I don’t think the country has figured this out yet. They’re still vaguely the Montana-Young-Walsh Niners who almost won a Super Bowl recently but in fact they have only a few of the core from a couple years ago and a rookie HC who wasn’t even considered for a HC gig prior to being handed the Niners’ job and who has never been HC at any level.

      By the same token, the Cardinals have a tradition of suck throughout all of my living memory and Rod Tidwell still eclipses their Super Bowl appearance as their most memorable event. Bruce Arians is the best HC in football. Fill in for HC with leukemia, 9-3. New team, 10-6. Drew Stanton at QB in NFCW, 11-5. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that they’ve opened with two wins (and two covers).

      In short, I feel historically-based misperceptions prevail on both sides of this line and I mean to profit.

  • agnesbojaxhiu

    My other votes
    Packers
    UL-Monroe
    Bears
    Browns
    Rice
    Plus the Giants whom I picked earlier but kept to myself

    So why UL-Monroe? Well these kids (I use the term loosely-intellectually children, physically behemoths) have the hardest load to tote of any team heading out there this weekend. Not only are they up against 12th ranked Alabama, but Alabama is fresh off their drop from 2nd. To top that off they have the biggest spread of any game that anyone will be paying attention to this week that isn’t rooting for their high school alma mater. Add on to that it is almost mid term and surely they have studying to do. Given their schools dismal football program they really should be putting all they have into their academics because they will truly need a real career after college. But instead these plucky youngsters are getting out their gear and traveling into hostile territory to loose big time. Not only are the Warhawks facing humiliation, but also serious morbidity. The neurons destroyed forever this weekend alone will number in the millions. Well those who have the most to gain also have the most to win. Ha!

    • Interesting …

    • Exec Cmte is pleased to grant the late-entry bonus of 3.5 to Agnes aka Mother Theresa. Welcome aboard!

    • bupalos

      There’s a lot to like here. Two to three weeks late is how the pros do it, and I especially like referring to these as “votes” and adding the very well placed “Ha!”

      But most of all, because it has 4 Bupalosian picks on there. This bears watching.

    • Hey Agnes — Ive got you set up in the form. All looks good BUT — give us a pick in lieu of the Giants. Not that I dont believe you picked them but.. you know.

    • agnesbojaxhiu

      Ravens

  • agnesbojaxhili

    My votes
    Packers
    UL-Monroe
    Bears
    Browns
    Rice
    And I already had picked the Giants but I kept it to myself

    So why UL-Monroe? Well these kids (I use the term loosely-intellectually children, physically behemoths) have the hardest load to tote of any team heading out there this weekend. Not only are they up against 12th ranked Alabama, but Alabama is fresh off their drop from 2nd. To top that off they have the biggest spread of any game that anyone will be paying attention to this week that isn’t rooting for their high school alma mater. Add on to that it is almost mid term and surely they have studying to do. Given their schools dismal football program they really should be putting all they have into their academics because they will truly need a real career after college. But instead these plucky youngsters are getting out their gear and traveling into hostile territory to loose big time. Not only are the Warhawks facing humiliation, but also serious morbidity. The neurons destroyed forever this weekend alone will number in the millions. Well those who have the most to gain also have the most to win. Ha!

  • GRRustlers

    Week 4 Picks

    Lot of tough losses last week but time to turn the page.

    BGSU (-1) over Purdue – Matt Johnson. Matt Johnson. Matt Johnson.

    Irish (-29) over UMass – Actual text I sent to friend last night. “Colorado beat UMass by 34 at home. Therefore if Irish do not win by 35 on Saturday I’ll see you in the fucking Sun Bowl” Personally I think you should respect anyone who properly researches bowl tie-ins before talking shit…that and I love the 29 point line.

    Panthers (-3) over Saints – The end of the Saints and the end of Brees is near. Hell of a run.

    Seahawks (-15) over Bears – With the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft the Chicago Bears select…

    AP – Chiefs (+6.5) over Packers – This just feels like 3 points too many…that and I expect a bounce back from KC.

    ESSAY PICK

    Patriots (-13.5) over Jaguars

    It dawned on me while watching South Park this week that Brady is just going to do whatever the hell he wants from this point on. Roger is an idiot and while I know I may be in the minority on this the NFL is run by a bunch of fools who made a mountain out of a molehill and I do believe it all went back to how badly the NFL botched Spygate. (You want to know why Luck is off to such a slow start? It’s karma for acting like a whiny little bitch all offseason. Enjoy winning your division at 7-9 crybaby.) I also think Brady may walk away after this year…or he plays forever and tries to win like 7 rings. It’s not like I need to take a stand and show any football knowledge…right Ben Alexrod? Win the whole damn thing all the way humiliating every team that you face. People should not think the Patriots were trying to run it up on Buffalo because of Rex Ryan. That’s nonsense. They are going to stick it to everyone this year because Brady is going to try and rewrite the record book to prove a point.

    “I’m going to go home and f*** my hot wife who’s not even that hot – kinda looks like a dude.”

    Well done South Park.

  • HitTheHorns

    Redskins +4. They took care of me last week and think they will tonight too. My bookie said its been all NYG (never a good sign), and I feel like I’ve heard the stat 1000 times this week that NYG is first team to be 0-2 leading by 10 in the 4th quarter. Joe Public Says: Giants are good, no way they fall to 0-3 at home.

    • Your bookie’s “signs” have really been killing us this year.

      • HitTheHorns

        0 for 2. It’ll even out.

      • Petefranklin

        You need to start trusting your Vegas guy!

  • TheKardiacKid

    Skins +4. This is for Axelrod

  • for team super p forever

    brownies -3.5 raiders

    usc -5.5 arizona st

    vanderbilt +24.5 ole miss

    ND -29 u mass

    packers -6.5 kansas city

    essay:

    BYU +5.5 michigan

    Well, a quick Twitter search for “BYI Michigan” didn’t yield anything near what I needed for this essay, so I fixed the typo and was instantly overloaded with analysis and predictions.

    It seems to me that between BYU WR Jake Ziolkowski returning to his home state and that the BYU coaching are pulling a little gambit called “changing things up” for this game, that BYU’s +5.5 is all but assured.

    Further reading down the stream is telling me even more, if you can believe it. For example, BYU thrives in late-game situations, and they also have a semi truck they use to drive their helmets to the game. The truck is blue and has a big letter Y on the side.

    Think about how many aspiring students didn’t get scholarships to BYU so that those helmets could travel in branded style.

    Just imagining Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae gathering up his offensively coordinated players behind the truck as the trailer doors fly open and the helmets come pouring out has me frozen in fear for Michigan. And frozen in awe in a general sense.

    “Get your helmets, fellas!”

    Speaking of Robert, let’s speak of Robert.

    Seems like just yesterday he was Bobby A, that nervous kid from first grade who we all just knew hated being first in the various line-ups and seating arrangements.

    If only Jennifer Allen hadn’t moved away over the summer!

    Alas, maybe Jenny moving away is what made Bobby into the change-it-up styled coordinator he is. Maybe he owes her phone call. A thank you. A hug.

    I love you, Jennifer Allen.

    • probable featured comment and it’s the first one I’ve read.

    • thatsfine

      Holy crap, just researched this and the truck is named “Cougar Won”. Thanks for bringing this information to us.

  • thatsfine

    Cincinnati +10
    Started at 7, up to 10, back down to 7. Gunner Kiel is now probable. The Bearcats can score. Memphis has scored at will against 3 MoState, KU, BGSU… but considering the pace of BGSU football seems like the Tigers should have put up more than 44 last week.
    One cheddar point, please.

  • In on Skins +4 because of that time, I read that thing, about being a better bettor, and the rotten fish rule applies heavily. Thanks, TA!

    https://jimkanicki.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/be-a-better-bettor/

  • RDGinCLE

    This pick coming at you from The Old Angle

    Cincy +10 I have really no football thoughts here other than the line has moved to 7 and I’ll play the markets. Also, I just did a shot of Powers (if you’ve been to the angle you know what I’m talking about), which, is just the elixir to inspire a wager on The University of Cincinnati Bearcats in the game of football.

  • Damn it. I’ll take the Skins tonight, too. http://i.imgur.com/01RtS9s.jpg

    • So tonight is my lawyers’ league softball team’s end of the year party, which is always a festive occasion. I tend to enjoy having watchable Cheddar Bay action going during social events because it helps turn Cheddar Bay into the conversation piece that it should be. There will also be some Bay participants in attendance, including a former third place finisher as well as certain friends of the Bay and also certain Cheddar wannabes, which will only enhance this effect. So for the good of the contest, and also because I know, as a two-time champion, that to win requires that one leave his comfort zone on a regular basis, I’ll make Virginia +2.5 over Boise State my Pick of the Week. The public is split 50/50 here. I’m generally a big fan of the Boise program, and think it’s generally still underrated due to East Coast bias or whatever (seriously, they cover in every bowl game, look it up). But despite that, and despite UVA’s impressive high-profile showing against Notre Dame, I think Boise is still the square side tonight, especially looking at the way these teams’ schedules have played out so far as well as all the talent that Boise returned from last year’s quite good team. I like Mike London and that UVA has been so patient in keeping him on. UVA has a good defensive line and elite talent in the secondary that could/should give rotating inexperienced QBs a lot of trouble, even if one of them is Mark Rypien’s nephew. Plus UVA’s RB Mizell is a five-star talent who should be the most explosive playmaker in this game. Both UVA losses came to legit top 10 playoff contenders (UCLA (before Jack went down) and ND). Must win for the ‘Hoos in Charlottesville tonight if the continued investment in London is to mean anything. Let’s get it. Two of the best uniforms in football squaring off here, too, IMO, FWIW.

      I do realize that the Cleveland McCowns are an obvious choice for POTW this week but this UVA pick seems like the more productive/creative way to go for the above-stated reasons, plus it would be too much to lose a POTW and deal with #ManzielTwitter should things go bad on Sunday.

      • agnesbojaxhiu

        Steer clear of the wannabes. There is a possiblility that they are part of a subversive plot to thwart the success of know instigators

      • CLEVTA

        Is it sleeves optional?

      • I’ve probably never been as ashamed of an essay pick as I am of last night’s debacle. My only consolation is that no one followed me into these depths. I apparently have quite a bit of accounting to do but in the meantime I’ll take Texas +3 over Oklahoma State.

        • Browns -3.5 over Raiders; Niners +6.5 over Cardinals: For obvious reasons.

          • I have been told that I’m going to a 6-year-old’s cross-country meet instead of watching the Browns game today so please swap out the Browns pick for Lions +3 over Broncos, thx.

          • Actually, drop the Niners pick. I will stay on the Browns and Lions (FML). Sorry I’m such an idiot this week.

          • Chiefs, I guess. Woof.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Skins +4: nobody has noticed but the Skins have turned into Dallas 2.0. Rebuilt the OL with Scherff in the draft and the two headed monster at RB with Alf and Matt Jones. The Giants can’t stop anybody so I expect the skins to slow the game down and beat up the Giants up front. Public on NYG yet the line is now down to 3.

    • CLEVTA

      2. Rams +1

      3. BG -1: I mean this is a pure stale contest selection

      4. Auburn -2.5: This is what you call a great spot for Auburn. Nobody thinks Auburn is worth a damn and ppl calling Gus a fraud. Here comes Sean White to save the day at night in a revenge spot after losing to Miss St last year. This is a nice profile on how underrated White was coming out of HS but dominated the HS all american game http://t.co/UlwPSpTTf1 I took and watched the Bulldogs lose to LSU 2 weeks ago. And regretted every second of holding a Miss St +4 ticket. They are not a good team. Extremely young at OL and their RB is bad. It’s all Dak and a little Derunya at WR. Their D couldn’t touch Fournette although very few can. Love the Tigers here

      5. Chiefs +6.5

      6. Texas Tech +7 (Essay): a matchup of two undefeated teams with a total at 81, I personally would’ve made this the All Play but I digress. I’ve been salivating the moment I saw +9 on Monday and took a bunch of Tech then took a little more at 8.5 and again at 7.5. Tech is on a major revenge spot here after TCU laid 81 on them last season. TCU is down a bunch of starting defenders and Tech has been on fire offensively this year behind Pat Mahomes Jr. If you are an MLB fan at all that name will ring a bell. His dad is Pat Mahomes from the Twins! Man I’m old. This kid can sling it and is not a system QB at all. He has a rocket arm and can run. Not only do I like Tech plus 7 I think they will win outright.

      • CLEVTA

        Hate to do this but that BG line is scaring me a bit so please replace BG with Arizona +3.5. Thanks

  • Chris Schroeder

    PK New York Jets vs.Philadelphia Eagles
    PK Atlanta Falcons @ DallasCowboys
    -5.5 Texas A&M @ Arkansas
    +24 Southern Mississippi @ Nebraska

    All Play: +6.5 Kansas CityChiefs @ Green Bay Packers

    Essay: +2 Bowling Green Falcons @ Purdue Boilermakers
    Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
    Setting: Ross-Ade Stadium
    Surface: Grass
    Capacity: 57,236
    Time: 12:00 BTN, BTN2Go
    Weather: 76 degrees, intervals of clouds. Winds E 10 to 20 mph
    Mascot: Freddie & Frieda Falcon, Boilermaker Special

    The Game: For the Purdue Boilermakers this game is no cupcake. A MAC teaming coming into a Big Ten facility should mean writing a quick paycheck and one more win to become bowl eligible. On Saturday this is not the case. Watch out for the upset, but
    really can you call this an upset. The boilermakers have been so horrific and the falcons playing one of the tougher schedules in the nation thus far. Writing checks
    now a days comes with catastrophic losses. And you can add another one to the growing list. The Falcons start strong, ease up and then finish with a bang. Falcons 28 Boilermakers 24. Before I die I’m praying to the lords above that some visiting athlete uses his talents to the fullest with a touchdown celebration that plows through the Worlds Largest Drum kind of like old Bo back in ’87 against the Seahawks.

  • zarathustra

    So I had a Virginia essay written and ready to go, but then I considered my place in the standings and that my essays thus far have been for WKU, UMASS, and Wake Forest. Maybe it’s time to stop being cute. I still kind of like the Hoos tomorrow, but an essay there would be nothing less than cute and it is time to make a move.
    Going to start said move with the Giants tonight.
    Washington is on the road on a short week after benefitting from playing a Rams team coming off a huge win over Seattle. Everybody is well aware by now that it has been about a year since a team won the week after playing the Seahawks so maybe we shouldn’t read too much into Washington’s victory and keep in mind that they have won only two of their last 14 division games. Moreover, they have managed to win only one game on the road each of the last two years. And…..they are playing the Giants, who have won 5 of 6 against Washington, winning by margins of 11, 34, 14, 7, and 4. Kirk Cousins is without a doubt one of my favorite college players of the last several years, but unfortunately I have never seen anything to indicate he is anything but a solid backup in the NFL. He is 3-8 as a starter with one of those at home against the aforementioned Rams and another against the Shurmurs in Cleveland.
    This preponderance of information supporting the Giants might tempt one to make the contrarian play on Washington, but I would always caution against trying to catch a falling knife. The Giants are 0-2, but probably shouldn’t be and I expect them to win the division.
    Also….Jay Gruden.

    Giants -4 over Washington***

    While I’m here I might as well get at least one more out of the way. I think there has been maybe one all-play the last two years that I would actually pick in real life and this week is no different, but the Seahawk hangover mentioned above applies to the Packers this week so I might as well ride that in a game I have no opinion on any way.

    Chiefs + 6.5 over Packers

    • Great Giants pick.

      • zarathustra

        Thanks!

    • What did your Virginia essay say? I really like Boise.

      • zarathustra

        I decided against it as I think I was ultimately justifying some strange anti-boise bias that I’m not even sure why I have. But, ultimately, two things: boise playing 2 inexperienced qbs getting their first real snaps on the road across the county at night. Also, uva has been surprisingly not awful at home. Notre Dame this year. Last year a close loss to UCLA, but also outright wins over louisville, pitt, and the U. Seems like a decent spot to take the home dog. Boise d is maybe really good though so who knows.

        • zarathustra

          I forgot. UVA also only lost by one to unc at home last year. So ultimately 2 home losses by a combined 9 points to a very good ucla team and a decent enough tar heel team.

          • This all seems right. I like London and the fact that UVA has stuck with him. They need this one tonight.

  • cwonder23

    Boise State -2.5 @ Virginia
    WMU +31.5 @ OSU
    Auburn -2.5 vs Missy State
    Bears +15 @ Seahawks
    All Play: Packers -6.5 vs Chiefs
    Essay: Arkansas +7 vs A&M
    On the road again and don’t know much about either team (classic, I know). This seems like a classic bounce back game for a Razorback team that is on the ropes. I expect this game to be an ugly one and I actually think Arkansas wins this game. Bielema isn’t a great coach but he isn’t a bad one. I expect him to get his kids ready to win a pivotal home game. Arkansas 17-14.

  • Petefranklin

    Please put me down for the NewYork Giants -4 tomorrow, as well as Memphis -10.

    Also, I have a special announcement.
    Everyone is invited to Petefranklin’s RV tailgate party in San Diego next Sunday@ lot p3. I will have plenty of food and drinks for anyone who can make it. It will also be very kid friendly.I will also be serving chilled orange koolaid shots, and orange jello shots. If anyone has a good recipe for the orange koolaid, or anything else brownslike, please let me know. Thanks!

  • Our integrity has been assaulted, gang. This cannot stand. https://twitter.com/ClevelandFrowns/status/646691723360473088

    • bupalos

      See I heard this twitter thing was supposed to be big, so I mailed in my registration card and whatnot, was all set to do the twitter. And then I never heard about it again until just now. So how do I do the twittering to make this stop-standing, Because this Axelrod gentleman sounds like needs to go back to running elections or whatever.

      • You log into twitter with your twitter name and password and then you tweet tweet tweet.

    • cwonder23

      This Axelrod guy can go fuck himself as far as I’m concerned. I hate the “you don’t know football” stuff.

      • Good point. As though holding a mic in locker room is a meaningful credential. (I seriously had never heard of him until Zac and Andre started mentioning in the AtoZ.)

        MKC, Grossi, McManamon would bat around 30% ATS if they had to put their football ‘knowledge’ to the most meaningful test,,, betting against the spread.

        And there is the reason the public loses and wiseguys win: the public gets their info from MKC-Grossi-McManamon-Axelrod types.

        • RDGinCLE

          Moreover, Axelrod misses the point when he goes on to call it a “pickem league”. That fact that it is indeed a contest is irrelevant. The fact that someone has a history of a success ATS, in print, is all that matters. Said person could be writing them on cocktail napkins and keeping them in their bathroom drawer just for fun, makes no difference. I would be willing to bet BA $1000.00 to charity he cant pick 6 games a week ATS the spread for the rest of the season at 58%

          • did he delete tweets on this?

          • RDGinCLE

            I believe so?

          • He did, to his credit.

          • RDGinCLE

            What information came to light, or what did he realize, that inspired him to delete these tweets? The fact that you told him you don’t play fantasy? Maybe he realized the identities of some of the participants? Maybe I’m being cynical but it seems disingenuous

          • Maybe he did a little research. Maybe he got a word to the wise from one of his buddies who are in this contest. Anyway, good on him.

          • zarathustra

            Spot on sir. I will match your $1000 to further entice Mr. Axelrod to demonstrate his superior football knowledge by picking 58% ATS the rest of the year.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      YOU TELL HIM, GOLDEN CHEDDAR BOY!!

    • thatsfine

      I would say to offer him a few weeks comp on here to see how he does, but I think one of the true merits of this contest is that it runs the full season. You see, very clearly and very quickly, how difficult it is to be good at this.