#CheddarBay wk3, OleMiss at Bama.

Lines here.  

Download (PDF, Unknown)

Pick submittal form here.

All-play:  Ole Miss +7 at Bama.

AP BROWNS JETS FOOTBALL S FBN USA NJ[Insert uniform rant here.]  [Nah, I’ll give it a rest this week.]  [Although the mind boggles at the wretched excess that must have been the Nike final presentation for the hillbilly and the twerp.]  [How drunk do you suppose Jimmah got or, better question, how fast do you suppose it took him to get that drunk?]

The Cheddar Spreadsheet update.

We all miss the old spreadsheet that showed everyone’s picks and results, right?  Me too.  But there’s no way to duplicate it using a form to enter the picks and dammit I made a lot of mistakes in the transcription so the form is a must.

So here’s what I’m working on as an alt to the old workbook.  Look-ee here:  http://bit.ly/allpicks

This is where I’ll compile all the picks for everyone into one spreadsheet.  Looks clunky, I know, BUT:  it’s got a filter.  I’m guessing most of you know how to work a spreadsheet filter but just in case here’s how you can look up your record or someone else’s in three easy steps:

Screen Shot 2015-09-15 at 2.48.37 PM

1. Click the triangle to get a pull-down, click “Clear.”

Highlight the player you want to view and click.

2. Highlight the entrant you want to view and click.

Here's your all your player's picks and W-L-Push record.

3. And here’s your all your player’s picks and W-L-Push record.

To go back, click the pull down again and do 'Select All.'

4. To go back to the original view, click the pull down again and do ‘Select All.’

I’m working on getting the formatting (e.g., green for win; red for lose) cleaned up.1

Also on this spreadsheet is where I’ll track the winning percentages on picks, all-plays, and essays.

Screen Shot 2015-09-15 at 2.59.59 PM

(Ahem… our group win percentages have nowhere to go but up.)


  1. Turns out this is kludgey as it’s not as simple as saying if cell x is 0, do red.  There’s nonsense with how google sheets sees zeros and blanks and it’s a lot of trial and error over here.  If it’s bugging you, it’s really bugging me. [back]

109 Responses

  1. Mike B. says:

    brosef picked bengals before kickoff via email.

  2. DQuatts says:

    Sorry for so late!

    Jacksonville +6
    Oakland +6*
    Dallas +5.5
    Green Bay -3.5
    Indianapolis -7

    *Im doing something I probably shouldn’t do and look too deep into a line. With Oakland getting ran over by Cinci last week, a team in the same division as Baltimore with a similar style, this line should be inflated dramatically. I had a chance to watch Baltimore last week closely and realized they have absolutely zero identity on Offense. They lack playmaking capability, simple as that. Not to say that Oakland has playmakers, but they do have young talent and playing in your first (of first or few) NFL games is a lot to ask a young group. I see a bounce back this week from Oakland and I am riding with the young talent to keep it close at home. Have a great Sunday!

  3. CLEinMPLS says:

    Eagles – Essay skip week.

  4. Mike B. says:

    from AK47, Texans, ravens,cowboys, giants, Titans

  5. Petefranklin says:

    Essay) Bengals -3 This may very well be the last time that Cincy is betable at home this year. The market is going to catch up to the Bengals home dominance shortly, so it might as well be today after an easy win, or as easy of win that can be had in the NFL. I consider the strength of the Bengals to be their DLine. This is not a good time to lose a all pro tackle for SD. The Bengals will put the pressure on Rivers that the Lions could not. I guess I could get backdoor pushed, but I fully expect Cincy to be up 10 midway through the 4th quarter, so the bengal running game should take the pressure off of Dalton.
    Did I bother to mention that Cincy is 15-5-1 ATS at home recently.

    Change pick 5) from the Steelers to the Texans+3
    pick 6) Eagles -5.5 I’ll lay it just because of the late game emotions both teams had last week.

  6. HitTheHorns says:

    6. Oakland Raiders +6. Only 56 selections on Raiders in the super contest, the least picked team of the week,. If they hit today this will become a recurring strategy for me.

  7. trashycamaro says:

    Bama -7 over Ole Miss loss. turns out my strategy to pick for marital bliss did not work anyway as Alabama fans are extra entitled and get really angry when losing.

    Pats PK over Bills I love Rex Ryan, I think he is a great coach, and I love that he is the anti-Belichik in every way. However, until he gets to pick Bill Polian’s 1st round pick in the 6th round for a QB, I will always pick them to lose outright.

    Browns +1 over Titans The Titans are not as good as they looked last week, and the Browns are not as bad as they looked last week.

    Chargers +3 over Bengals Rivers got his football magic working last week and Allen is back. Works for me.

    Essay Rams -3 over Washington Football Team So this is probably some kind of trap because it seems SO OBVIOUS. Aaron Donald and friends slicing through a porous O-line to get pressure on the Kirk Cousins that throws picks on 6% of his passes? Meanwhile the Rams offense should be able to manufacture some points. Per Football Outsiders projections, we have the Washington #31 offense (now missing DSJ) going against the #4 defense. And we have the #22 defense going against the Rams #19 offense. To delve a little deeper, in 2014 Washington was #31 in adjusted sack rate on offense while the Rams were middle of the pack over the year…but we know their play towards the end of the year was much more of what they are capable of than the beginning of the year. Finally, add in the STL top 10 special teams from last year against the bottom 5 for Washington and I think the Rams win this comfortably.

    Falcons +2.5 over Giants Falcons defense looked really good until the Eagles offense gassed them last week. The Giants looked pretty poor all the way around last week. Their offfense will not wear out the Falcons defense and the birds offense is looking pretty great. If Eli did not have a horsehoe up his ass, I would make this my essay.

  8. Dan Whalen says:

    RAMS -3.

    Charlie Munger’s Mis Priced Bet of the Week:
    GIANTS -2.5

    Eli Manning is a more intense version of Jekyll and Hyde than Matty Ice, but both have their peaks and valleys on a regular basis. There are only 6 or 7 guys who bring it at a high level every single week of the season, neither of these guys, as good as they are, fall in that group. I still think the Falcons will be far improved with Dan Quinn, but I feel like the Giants at home here to cover by a field goal. Lots of weapons. Just need to stop playing with fireworks.

  9. Peter Markos says:

    Today’s strategy is pick the teams playing weak QBs. The law firm of Mallet, Winston, Bortles and Cousins does not strike fear in the hearts of …. well, nobody really. Yes, Manziel should be a partner of this firm, but avoiding the easy cheese of a Browns loss is a Chedddar Bay tradition for me. (October)
    The Rams defensive line is dominant. The Washington franchise is in its usual disarray. RG3 play the fourth quarter.
    The Dolphins are better this year. The Jags are Cleveland South.
    The Bucs offensive line is horrible. Jamies will suffer the karma beating that many (not me) believe he deserves.
    The Panthers will win. Cam will outplay Mallet. At least Browns fans did not suffer watching Brian Hoyer lead his team to victory. Last Sunday was terrible, but it could have been worse.

  10. clayII says:

    Bama (loss)
    Pats (pk) / Bills
    Jets (+6.5) / Colts
    Texans (+3) / Panthers
    Pack (-3.5) / Seahawks

    Browns (+1) / Titans

    Filing last weeks game in the trash. NYJ were/are better than advertised though. Mc Cown going out, the fumbled pick, blah, blah, blah. We should dominate the line on both sides of the ball, unlike last week. John taking snaps with the 1’s this week can only help him. Hoping we rattle Mariota’s cage early. Healthy Benji is really fast, thinkin maybe he houses a punt return…

  11. Mike B. says:

    Alrhode is in for Bama. (These are all coming via twitter DM.)

  12. Mike B. says:

    CleMPLS is in for Bama.

  13. Mike B. says:

    AK47 is in for Bama.

  14. trashycamaro says:

    Alabama -7 over Ole Miss

    Happy to see snouts research, but this is more about household harmony. My wife and I went to Alabama and while I really hate most everything about Alabama, my wife is an Alabama fan and it is just easier to say “I picked Alabama” and even root for them sometimes. NFL later or tomorrow. Rough slate.

  15. CleveLandThatILove says:

    Colorado -3.5
    (AP) Ole Miss +7
    Kentucky +3
    Browns +1
    *Pats PK
    Of course, like everyone not living in soulless Pats fandom, I want the Bills to take it to NE in the worst way and keep the story going where it needs to go. But I’m not ready to underestimate the Pats as long as B & B are involved. I just don’t trust them to let us feel good quite yet. Also mindful to be wary of Week 1 upset-pulling underdogs the following week, which explains my Browns pick and also breaks my rule to self (don’t pick Brown games this year, just don’t).

  16. I am an idiot. I am a damned fool. Someone please clobber me over the head with a Tim Couch commemorative edition Makers Mark bottle.

    PICK OF THE WEEK: Browns +1 over Titans:

    I mentioned in the comments here earlier this week that last week’s Browns loss marked the first since 2010 that’s compelled me to try to convince people (on Twitter) that this team really isn’t that bad. I was practically lynched for this (on Twitter), mainly because my argument depended on the supposition that Manziel had a much bigger negative impact on the team than was obviously apparent. As I noted here earlier this week, I suppose it’s impossible for a third-party observer to see — other than by looking at the final results, of course — just how much the team lost with Johnny in there in terms of the playbook, setting the blocking schemes, and etc. This is even apart from the fact that the Jets were obviously stacking against the run and sending the house on passing downs as soon as he went in the game. I’m fairly convinced that the Browns players understood what they’d lost once McCown went out for the game and that the wind was sucked out of the whole team’s sails as a result. I’m also fairly convinced that the Jets aren’t that bad, and might even be quite good. Beyond the defensive front that everyone knows about, their offensive line has to be one of the best in the league, Brandon Marshall is a freak, and Fitzpatrick stabilizes the QB position for them.

    So I’d been telling myself all week that I’d be all over the Browns against the Titans this week as long as McCown was starting. I’m disappointed, of course, that he’s not, as I’m sure most of the Browns locker room is. It would be the easiest thing in the world to lay off this game, or even to join the masses who are all over the Titans this week and plan for three hours of gawking at the Manziel dumpster flames, but after having tossed this around for awhile, I will do the opposite.

    I don’t think it’s a secret, if not outside of #BrownsTwitter then at least within serious wagering circles, that Manziel is a five-alarm dumpster conflagration at QB. But the line has moved only half a point since he was announced the starter. The Browns have had all week to prepare for Johnny’s start, and with the supposedly fearsome schedule looming ahead, there isn’t a team in the league this week that will be as desperate for a win. There’s enough talent there that they should find a way to do it, despite Johnny, as ugly as it might be.

    I am an idiot. I am a damned fool. Send help.

    For the All Play I will take Mississippi +7 over Alabama because if I were going to flip a coin, I would want the coin to tell me to take Missy here.

    And four other picks any one of which would make a perfectly fine Pick of the Week if I didn’t have to go and be such a damned idiot:

    Bills PK over Patriots: This would have been my Pick of the Week if I didn’t have to go and be such a damned idiot. This is one of those early regular season road games that the Pats know they don’t have to win.

    Niners +6 over Steelers: The Mangenius is back and it brought tears to my eyes watching his defense thoroughly obliterate the preseason-darling Vikings last week. Tougher test this week, obviously, but Big Ben is no Einstein and 6 is a lot of points.

    Jets +6.5 over Colts: See above re: the Jets. I think the volume will be turning up soon re: how Ryan Grigson is squandering the Luck Era in Indy.

    UCLA -16.5 over BYU: I’ve been trying to convince people that UCLA is a good longshot play to win the national title (they were 35-1 after the week 1 blowout of Virginia down to 22-1 as of last week). The narrative before the season was that they were loaded with returning starters and NFL talent but had a huge question mark at the QB position. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-college-football-preview-ucla-bruins-josh-rosen-true-freshman-quarterback-success/

    Now that Josh Rosen looks as much as anyone like the next Andrew Luck it looks like the Bruins have as good a chance to make the playoff as anyone outside of Columbus.

    Anyway, my girlfriend Colleen started doing this thing where she asks me what 6 games I’ll be picking for Cheddar Bay then chooses her own sides in those games and lords it over me when her picks beat mine. This week she took it a step further and wrote an essay. Here’s an excerpt:

    “Brigham Young University lacks integrity with their clear choice of profits over morals. I am talking about the hypocrisy of their cheerleaders’ uniforms. This is a school that will not let women show their knees or shoulders while going to class, but has no problem with them flashing their crotches to millions of viewers while standing feet away from virgins. For the cheers that they do on the side of the field, there is no reason they cannot be wearing more modest clothing, so clearly functionality is not the reason. If they are wearing those uniforms for the sake of maintaining social norms among athletes, why do they have strict on campus dress codes that go against social norms? The only diversity within the student body comes from artificially recruiting student athletes who otherwise would not have chosen to move to Provo. These athletes are then presented with an impossible moral code while being shown violations of it for the sake of a profitable team.”

    I think she shows a lot of aptitude here as well as a certain je ne sais quo and could be a dark horse for next year’s title. Anyway this obviously supports my UCLA pick as well.

    Which is all for now but if I get Johnny Dumpstered tomorrow I’ll be back to post lots of pictures of whiskey bottles.

  17. limaontinder says:

    Bama (AP)
    Tennessee Titans
    NYG (essay)

    There’s really nothing quite like getting embarrassed so badly and explaining the root cause of said dumbass decisions so badly that they make stories for half of an NFL week or news cycle. Lovely. It’s motivation, especially when you’re capable of, obviously, being much much better than you showed, and so and so forth. Anyway, the Giants got humiliated by Manning Face and Tommy are used to this and it really isn’t even needed as motivation but they’ll use it anyway. If that sounds like some Rizzo level analysis, it quite possibly is — I think he mentioned it on the roundtable Friday (sorry, I was making a long drive and was listening.) Ok, good talk guys.

  18. DQuatts says:

    DQuatts Rollin Tide tonight -7. Not quite certain on the star power within Ol Miss. Certain that Derrick Henry will be tough to bring down.

  19. oxr says:

    All-play Alabama -7 over Ole Miss and that’s it for today.

    • oxr says:

      Rams -3 over Redskins
      Ravens -6 over Raiders
      Titans -1 over Browns – I agree with everyone saying the Titans are probably not as good as they looked last week, nor the Browns as bad, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to go against Manziel starting in (essentially) a pick ’em. Maybe this is finally his week!
      Dolphins -4 over Jaguars

      Essay Cardinals -1.5 over Bears – I don’t feel particularly confident in any of these road favorites and would probably steer clear of any >7 lines like NO-TB. However, my hope is that, in aggregate, these lines will look overly cautious with a few weeks’ hindsight – I may be misled by my fond memories of those halcyon fortnights in each of the last couple of seasons where it was possible to pick against the Jags and Raiders without laying two touchdowns. Anyway, despite my dismal record of picking either for or against the Bears, I’m going with Cards-Bears for the essay. Carson Palmer hasn’t suffered his annual injury yet at time of writing, and as long as he’s upright, the Arizona pass game looks like a strength against a weakness. Matt Forte looks on top form but if Arians can account for him and dare Cutler to make throws, there’s a pretty good chance that turnovers will ensue. Also, I think Andre Ellington’s contribution for the Cards should be easier to replace than Alshon Jeffery’s contribution for the Bears, so Jeffery’s hamstring setback seals it.

  20. Tim Butler says:

    AP (and obligatory college pick): ole miss +7 over BAMA – I keep going back and forth on this one, but then I saw Ole Miss will be wearing these helmets tonight. Decision made. I mean, just look at how beautiful those are. I don’t want to be watching this game, and have to root against those helmets.

    NFL (3-1-1)

    VIKES -3 over lions – Lions are a public dog on the road.
    BENGALS -3 over chargers – Chargers are another public road dog (or at least around 50% public depending on where you look).
    GIANTS -2.5 over falcons – Win on Monday, lose on Sunday. I’m not sure if this is true or not, I haven’t looked at any numbers to back it up, but my dad said it to me when I was a kid, so now here I am, laying points with a Giants team that just showed off their superb game management skills on Sunday night.
    JAGS +6 – Strictly fading the public here, plus I hate the Dolphins, and Tannehill is very overrated.

    **POTY** ESSAY: BILLS (pk) over patriots **POTY**

    Somebody said on here last week (and I’m paraphrasing here) that they weren’t sure if Rex Ryan was an upgrade over Doug Marrone, after all Marrone did go 9-7 last year. The reality is, that the Bills went 9-7 last year, despite Marrone. In fact, it’s amazing the Bills were able to win 9 games with Marrone. This is a man who quit an NFL head coaching job to go be the offensive line coach for the Jags. He was a whiny, sad teddy bear with a big ego (the worst kind of sad teddy bear) who thought it was a good idea to bring half of the Syracuse coaching staff with him to try to win NFL games. His o-coordinator last year, Nate Hackett, was inept at best, and probably even intentionally sabotaging the season so that him and Marrone could go be best friends in Jacksonville (Hackett is now Bortles QB coach). This is a long way to say that talent-wise, I think the Bills were better than 9-7 last year, and with actual NFL coaching and game-planning, the Bills should win 10+ games, and finally end their 16 year playoff drought.

    Even after dominating the Colts last week (without Dareus), this Bills team is still being underrated. Tyrod Taylor is at worst an average NFL quarterback, and possibly even better. What I saw last week was a smart, poised player who knew his physical limitations (and advantages), and played nearly a mistake free game. I expect the Pats defense to provide a bit of a tougher test than the Colts did, but I think the Bills should be able to move the ball well enough to get enough points to win. On the other side of the ball, Pats have a rookie guard, center, guard, the Bills have the best front 4 in football.

    Also, according to covers.com, Super Bowl winners are 9-21 ATS in the last 30 years when playing their first road game, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 opening road games. Last year, Seattle lost at SD by 9 as a 4.5 point favorite.

    I’ll be at the Ralph for this game, and I seriously considered bringing ear plugs as to avoid permanent hearing loss. The place is going to be absolutely nuts. Much like last week, I will not be surprised if this game isn’t all that close. This is the most excited I’ve been to go to an NFL game in my life, and I can’t let PJD upstage me, so fuck it, I too, will make this my POTY.

  21. PJD19 says:

    Bills over Pats *****POTY*****

    A classic clash of good vs evil. It would be remarkable and astonishing if some combination of undrafted rookie center David Andrews, rookie guards Shaq Mason and Tre Jackson and guard Josh Kline out of the The Kent State University can hold up against the Bills defensive front. The rest of the Bills defense ranges from good to really good. Ralph Wilson stadium is going to be bedlam. Tyrod Taylor is a boss, despite what most people think. The Pats don’t have the players to stay with Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, LeSean McCoy, Robert Woods and Charles Clay. Unless they completely out coach and out scheme the Bills, there should be plenty of opportunity for big plays. Also it isn’t out of character for NE to not light the world on fire early in the season. Bills win big.

  22. Dave Borcas says:

    Clemson Thursday was a loser
    Florida-3, I feel like the only person who likes them
    Ole Miss (all play)
    Arizona Cardinals -1.5
    St Louis (temporarily) Rams -3
    Your CLEVELAND BROWNS (essay)
    This Browns team is so confusing. Did any team preach more focus on an area of the game and fall flat on their face in game 1? It was actually two areas, running the ball and stopping the run, but whose counting. I am convinced (hoping) that last week was bad luck, bad day, an aberration, unluckyky or just a bad dream. It appears that the team is deemphasizing more than the QB and WR positions. Well enough whining. This team is not that bad and Marcus Marital is not that good. Home cooking should fire up the defense. Johnny should have the crowd pumped up despite the egg they laid last week. My hope is that Johnny shows us he can be a pro QB. He must learn to trust his OL and not try and improvise after 2 seconds in the pocket. That frustrated the OL and leads to many penalties. Another worry is that Petting (who I like) left the D to spend more time with the O. This D is incomplete and I really don’t have a lot of confidence in Jim O’Neil. At the end of the day I don’t believe that Marietta becomes the first QB to beat Hessian trophy winners in his first two pro games. Feed the crow and use the TE. GOOOOOOOOOOO Browns!!!!!

  23. bupalos says:

    No more than 15 minutes to do this now that I’ve dithered, probably no time to really check back in this weekend, so you all are getting another USPS special from me.

    AP Bama. -7

    Minnesota -22.5

    Troy +34.5

    Colorado +3

    Colts -6.5 : I don’t want to make this pick because I think the Jets are pretty good overall and Fitzpatrick is really random and can have very good games. But watching coaches film, this secondary without Cromartie, is going to leave a lot of opportunities for Luck & co.

    Essay CMFB +1

    Watched the Titans game again, and as much as the line is an overreaction to the Charlie Browns doing their Charlie Brown thing, it’s also an overreaction to the debut of Mariota. I like Mariota a lot, and I think he’ll be very good, but the Bucs D simply played the worst NFL football I’ve seen in some time. No idea what to do with the read option, a rookie LB in a key position that had utterly no clue where he needed to be, and an entire defense that was miscommunicating and just basically in shambles. Mariota’s welcome-to-the-NFL week got delayed, because that wasn’t an NFL defense.

    This isn’t to say that the Titans newborn baby rookie won’t be the better QB on Sunday, they probably will. But not by much. Johnny has taken a full year to work himself up to this point, but aside from a very troubling lack of awareness in the pocket where he reacts to rushers that aren’t there and doesn’t react to rushers that are, the flames in the dumpster have subsided. The rest of the roster is just basically superior to the Titans so HERE WE GO BROWNIES HERE WE GO!!

    • bupalos says:

      And now I see Minny game started at 12 well before I submitted. How does a Central time zone game start at 12? Is this a thing?

      Anyway we’ll switch it up to Bills PK. It was originally on and off and on and off my slate. Everything makes sense about it, but then you see Tyrod against Tom and you get scurred. But the poty plays above clinch it for me.

  24. RDGinCLE says:

    UCLA -15.5. BYU seems to easy here. Love what Mora and Rosen are doing.

    PSU -8.5. I once lived with some other athletes for a few years at PSU, and they literally had professors tell them never to come to class because other students would actually know they are in the class and wonder where they are if they didn’t show up from time to time. They never went, and got As everytime. So anyway, not gonna hold this latest scandal against Rutgers and the nittany lions have to cover at some point.

    Georgia -16.5. Bloom is off the rose for TOBC, window is shut, however you wanna say it. Georgia has national title hopes and it’s biggest deficiency is Lambert, which should be negated by Sakerlinas horrible run defense.

    Ole Miss +7. Just taking the points.

    Essay Stanford +9.5

    Now it’s week three and identities are starting to be written. Like, man, the Trojans are good. Did you see how many points they scored?? Yeah well, have you seen who they played? I think their defense is potentially legit but their last 5 matchups vs Stanford have been decided by 8 points or less. Stanford is a proud bunch and this is simply too many points for a rivalry game.

  25. AmplifiedEsq says:

    1) Colorado St. +3.5
    2) Old Dominion +18
    3) Ravens -6
    4) Falcons +2.5
    5) Ole Miss (All Play)
    6) Minnesota (Essay)

    The only time I’ve seen Minnesota or Kent St. play this year is some of the TCU vs. Minn. game. Minn. seemed to be at least a decent team. Good defense with some work to do on offense. Meanwhile, Kent St.’s one game against a non subdivision opponent this year was a 52-3 loss at Illinois. I’d take Minn. over Ill., especially on the defensive end, so I’d like to think Minn. can cover this one even without much offensive firepower. This also seems like the type of game where a team looking for some offensive identity would try some things out they may normally not and end up getting some points on the board. Minnesota’s QB needs to build some confidence and some connections with his wide receivers in the next few games before conference play and I’m banking on some it paying off today.

  26. Petefranklin says:

    All play BAMA. I’m not expecting much scoring from the Tide, but the defense will be highly motivated to stop missy from scoring at will. I’m calling bullshit on the reverse line movement here. I bet the Tide -6.5 earlier this week. Lane Kiffin finally does something to prepare an offense well and this ain’t a Fresno or Martin defense, so move along, nothing to see here folks.
    2) Georgia Tech -2 Too bad that the QB got hurt as I would be on the same side with some tremendous value. I guess the Irish could pull this one out, but I don’t see their offense getting into any rhythm as Tech will control the ball for 35 to 40 minutes. The Jackets are the real dark horse for the playoffs, not the Irish.
    3) Stanford +10 Hopefully this will be a game where the Trojan backers know at their bets are in deep trouble midway through the first half. Stanford definitely is less talented, but way smarter than the Trojans, and they hardly ever let USC punk them by doubles.

  27. squeekycleen says:

    Essay: Jaguars: Jaguars looked pitiful last week generating 9 pts and losing to also pitiful Carolina. Now they get perenially overhyped in state foe Miami at home. It’s never a bad idea to take a look at teams that looked terrible after week 1 and hope for a rebound in week 2. No doubt the Jags fit that bill and while they may actually be absolutely horrible, there is probably enough value in them and overvalue in 1-0 Carolina to make this worth our while. Of course, I’m not as confident here as I was in last week’s essay with Tennessee vs Bob Stoops that was right on but got derailed due to absolute stupidity and conservative BS. But no, I’m not bitter about that.

    Chicago Bears
    Western Ky

    All play: Ole Miss

  28. Mikey says:

    After discussing with Kardiac Kid, we’ve both realized we’re terrible at this. Gonna try something new. I’m an idiot when sports betting, the general public is a collection of me, therefore going with first instinct then doing the exact opposite.

    Kent +23.5
    san Diego Chargers +3
    Chicago Bears +1.5
    San Francisco 49ers +6
    Ole Miss +7
    Cleeeeeeeeveland Browns +1

    Yes that means a game I’m going to, a game I spent $150 for a ticket, a game I scheduled two vacation days around, my first instinct is that they will lose. There is no buzz at all for this team. As of Wednesday, there were actual good/decently priced seats still available. The survey the team sent out regarding their sponsors, I didn’t know who half of them are, AND I WORK FOR A CONSULTING FIRM. Let’s all pop some pills since Johnny can’t and bark together?

    • Mike B. says:

      If we’d all used the Costanza Method in the first two weeks, essay picks wouldve hit at 58% instead of the 42% we saw. Definitely limping out of the box at 48% ATS overall.

      But I will say that we have seen this every year at Cheddar and all it means is there is a hot streak pending. This group will come in a smidge over 50% ATS for the year, always does.

  29. Mike B. says:

    Just for the record, I’m not looking to feature a comment every week but when one jumps out,, yeah sure let’s pin it to the top.

  30. Dan Whalen says:

    NORTH CAROLINA. Raise up.

    TOLEDO. A little birdie named Kareem Hunt told me starting running back and Doak Walker Award Candidate Kareem Hunt is back on the field today. Lookin for 200 yards on the ground.

    LSU. I think plenty of teams have early season slip ups like Auburn did last week, and they still turn out to be ok. I just think Auburn has been overrated from the start.

    OLE MISS. When LaQuan Treadwell is your third leading receiver, you’ve got a squad. And this QB Chad Kelly looks far more equipped to handle pressure than Bo Wallace did. Certainly taking the points, and I like Ole Miss straight up.


  31. Matt Borcas says:

    Ole Miss +7 over Bama
    Notre Dame +2 over GT
    USC -10 over Stanford
    Cal -6.5 over Texas
    South Carolina +16.5 over Georgia

    Essay to come

  32. zarathustra says:

    Please change my all-play to
    Bama over Ole Miss

  33. thatsfine says:

    Alabama -7 all-play
    ODU +18 – 3 pointer
    CMU +7
    NIU +34.5
    Duke -3.5
    Texans +3
    Taking my essay free week. I’m in Utah for a wedding and almost hit a damn Moose driving back to the condo a few hours ago. The kids loved the experience – we had just been looking at a statue of a moose in front of Snowbasin resort, then they got to see a real moose. The Moose was nonplussed and may have pissed on the road shoulder when I rolled down the window to get a good look at him. I’m just happy that I’m not posting this from a ravine.

  34. jdoepke says:

    Not a lot of commentary from me this week. Coming off 4-2 week and 2-0 on essays so far you should probably fade me this week because I’m not feeling great about anything. Here goes…

    Bama – 7 (AP)
    Umass +10.5
    Purdue +6
    UK +3
    Redskins +3 (yes I will stick with them until they cover, which should have been last week)

    San Jose St +7.5
    Don’t ask me what I know about either of these teams, all I see are numbers like Neo looking at the Matrix. Line opened at 9 and went down to 7 and we get it at 7.5. I see 68% of bets on the Beavers (according to Covers) and 96% of money on SJST (VegasInsider). Not my exact formula from last week but line moves 2 points and I see numbers that big, leads me to believe sharps are driving it down and I want to be on that side. Oregon St 27 – SJST 23

    • jdoepke says:

      PS – I was really close to picking ND (and I despise ND) but the number at 2 is not a good one. I also liked Stanford but couldn’t pull the trigger. These 2 games are sure to win.

  35. mmmmsnouts says:

    We recently discovered my wife is pregnant. At first she thought her doctor’s orders forbid her from eating all seafood, but happily she found out that shellfish are still OK. If only there was a restaurant offering a limited time, all-you-can-eat shrimp meal to celebrate this reprieve.

    R E D L O B S T E R

    Last Friday night, while she patiently smiled and nodded and pretended to listen, I explained how this contest is named after the biscuits. I explained that if you get all your picks right in a week it’s called a Lobsterfest, and if you miss them all it’s called a Lobsterita. Then as I ordered one, I explained that if you get them all right except for one tie, which I already had thanks to the Steelers, it’s called an Admiral’s Feast.

    The food? Satisfying as always. (note to Executive Committee: consider naming something after the Parrot Bay Coconut Shrimp) My picks? Utter garbage. I missed every single weekend pick and racked up a whopping 0.5 points. Sparty won, but didn’t cover. UCF is terrible instead of just mediocre. The Vikings got hammered by a team coached by a guy who looks like he rides touring motorcycles with his wife in matching varsity jackets. And the Bucs. Fucking hell. I can’t even.

    So here I am at a crossroads. My first year in Cheddar was quite good. Last year was dreadful. Early days, but this year looks like it might be even worse. Was Year 1 a fluke? Am I the True Detective of Cheddar? Now there’s a label anyone should desperately want to avoid.

    ALL PLAY / ESSAY: Alabama -7 vs. Ole Miss

    I would like to share a list of Alabama’s home SEC night games under Nick Saban, excluding his first year. All of these games kicked off at 6:00pm or later.

    – Alabama 32, Mississippi State 7 (11/15/08)
    – Alabama 20, #22 South Carolina 6 (10/17/09)
    – Alabama 31, #7 Florida 6 (10/2/10)
    – Alabama 23, Mississippi 10 (10/16/10)
    – Alabama 30, Mississippi State 10 (11/13/10)
    – Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 0 (10/8/11)
    – Alabama 37, Tennessee 6 (10/22/11)
    – #1 LSU 9, Alabama 6 (OT) (11/5/11)
    – Alabama 33, Mississippi 14 (9/29/12)
    – Alabama 38, #11 Mississippi State 7 (10/27/12)
    – Alabama 52, Arkansas 0 (10/19/13)
    – Alabama 38, #10 LSU 17 (11/9/13)
    – Alabama 55, #11 Auburn 44 (11/22/14)

    12 wins, only one loss, and every single win was by double digits (average margin of victory: almost 25). Most of those wins were soul-crushing affairs. The list also doesn’t include a 25-0 beating of Ole Miss two years ago, which started at 5:30. Alabama owns these Saturday night home games to an embarrassing degree.

    Actual football analysis: As long as Bama gives Derrick Henry enough carries (roughly more than 10) they’re going to be fine. This game is going to land on Chad Kelly’s shoulders, and JUCO success or not, there’s no way I’m backing someone making their first road start at Tuscaloosa. For best results, pair with the under.


    Maryland -6.5 vs. USF – I’m just convinced the Bulls are lousy. Maryland got torched by BGSU’s passing game last week, but USF can’t pass at all. USF’s only road wins under Taggart were against two interim coaches and a guy who got fired a month later. Another game to pair with the under.

    Tulsa +30.5 vs. Oklahoma – agree on the insane backdoor cover potential here

    Western Kentucky +1.5 vs. Indiana

    Georgia Tech -2 vs. Notre Dame – basically I’m picking the Jackets not just because I think they will win, but because of Paul Johnson’s fierce, undying hate for “That Coach,” AKA Notre Dame DC Brian VanGorder. Definitely clear some time in your schedule to watch this game.

    Colts -6.5 vs. Jets

  36. Capitalgg says:

    So I notched my third career Virgin Lobsterita last week (pulled the no picko twice last year). Followed up both last year by going 4-2. Let’s see if we can do better this week.

    All-play: Alabama -7 v. Ole Miss: Bama at home in a revenge game from last season.
    1. Colorado -3.5 @ Colorado St.: Hawaii = kind good. Colorado = lots better than recent vintage. TA & GRR analysis sealed this. Might have been essay if I didn’t feel I was copying them.
    2. Lions +3 @ Vikings: Detroit should be better team and has extra day of rest.
    3. Temple -10.5 @ UMass: Overreaction to UMass losing to Colorado and Temple housing Cincy? Maybe. But Temple might be legit good.
    4. Bengals -3 v. Chargers: Bengals are legit pretty good, while San Diego has to travel 3 timezones and kickoff 9am Cali time.

    So Auburn almost spit the bit last week against something called Jacksonville St. They needed to convert a 4th and 13 to force OT, then managed to pull it out in the extra period. That should harbinger bad things for Auburn. But J-ville St. was a sandwich game between highly touted (though now 0-3) Louisville and a trip to Red Stick. Auburn is a very young team that clearly took the Gamecocks way too lightly but did escape with the W. Les Miles tend to let teams stick around in games like this and I fully expect Auburn to play their A game this week. Auburn keeps it close and maybe pulls the upset in a low scoring affair. Auburn +6.5 @ LSU

    Other considerations (LW: 8-13 Season: 11-18):
    Maryland -6.5 v. South Florida
    Virginia Tech -6 @ Purdue
    UTSA +25 @ Oklahoma St.
    Kentucky +3 v. Florida
    Northwestern -3.5 @ Duke
    Penn St. -10 v. Rutgers
    Cincinnati -20 @ Miami (OH)
    Browns +1 v. Titans

  37. cwonder23 says:

    Essay: Eastern Michigan +6 vs Ball State
    TCU -37.5 vs SMU
    CMU +7 @ Syracuse
    KSU -9 vs La Tech
    Titans -1 @ Browns
    All Play: Bama -7 vs Ole Miss

    Using my essay pass week. Up North golfing. Dart board.

  38. FlyHighCharlieFrye says:

    I forget who I submitted. Honestly.

    But my essay was Kentucky +3

    All I know about Florida is Urban Meyer ain’t walking through that door. And all I know about Kentucky is one of the 17 Stoops Brothers is trying to build a program. He has momentum, a renovated stadium, some young talent and won last week at South Carolina. I understand SC is down, but Kentucky is up. Why not Kentucky right now, and why not outright? Night game, at home, everything to prove and all things still possible. They’ve beaten nobody good so far but neither has Florida, and I think the Cats get out of this still unbeaten.

  39. TheKardiacKid says:

    OleMiss -7
    LSU -6.5
    Indiana -1.5
    Duke -3.5
    Jags +6

    Essay: The U -3.5

    I have been so awful the first two weeks that I decided to change it up and pick using the George method. I’m picking the exact opposite of what I think will happen. Even down to The U being my essay pick. I’m most confident they won’t cover. Hopefully I’ll get to say “I’m Back Baby” after this week. THE U and THE GEORGE

  40. Nick says:

    Broncos (w) Gotta love the refs behind Peyton in what appears to be his last year. Got at least 3 late flags to extend drives last night.
    Atlanta Falcons +2.5. Not feeling the G-men this year.
    Alabama -7. Heads for Tide, Tails for Ole Miss, flipped Heads.
    Colorado -3.5 sure I’ll hop on the bandwagon.
    Wiscy -34.5. Badgers like clockwork this time of year…another 50+ pt blowout coming.

    Essay: Purdue +6 vs Virginia Tech

    Virginia Tech has lost their starting QB and (Mike) Linebacker. Sophomore Sean Huelskamp is the backup linebacker and measures 6’1, 212 lbs. That isn’t going to cut it against Big Ten meat. Purdue has two capable backs in Knox and Jones and I expect a run heavy game plan. Tech is talking about giving snaps to both QBs during the game…usually not a good sign.

    Two of Purdue’s freshmen in the secondary were arrested for bicycle thefts this week which is not great, but they are non-contributing backups. If these young men are stealing bicycles, I imagine they are walking around the locker room with a bunch of bad energy, and it’ll be nice for the team that they won’t be around.

    On a personal note, my company has recently hired several Purdue grads and they all seem extremely talented and upstanding individuals. My mindfulness and respect for Purdue has never been higher due to this, so BOILER UP I guess.

  41. Its Only Money says:

    Temple -10.5
    Duke -3.5
    USAFA +26.5
    Carolina -3
    All Play Ole Miss +7

    Essay Minnesota -23.5

    This is truly a pick against the Flashes. I watched quite a bit of their opener against Illinois, it wasn’t pretty. Bad teams on the road don’t cover the number and Kent is a bad team. The Gophers on the other hand played fairly well in their season opener against TCU. They were able to limit the number 2 team in the land to only 23 points. Week 2 wasn’t great, but they came away with a road win. Coming off a lackluster performance at Colorado State, Minny seems to be poised to bounce back and get a little fat on two MAC schools before the B1G season starts. I just don’t see Kent staying withing 4 scores of the Gophers.

  42. Mike B. says:

    1. Charlotte +19.5 at MTSU
    2. WKU +1.5 at IU
    3. Wake -6 at Army
    4. NCST -18 at ODU
    AP. OleMiss

    Essay. Dammit. Titans -1 at Browns
    There is just no way Johnny is an NFL QB. Couple that with sub-par WR corps and a running game that looked eerily like the T-Rich era last week and you’ll have a a Super Bowl head coaching game-planning a decent NFL defense to force Johnny to run. While the Titans front doesn’t compare to the Jets, they did add Brian Orakpo, Derrick Morgan was a first rounder (two sacks last week), Jurrell Casey can bring it. Lookit, any team can bring a pass rush when they don’t have to worry about a running back or a QB who can throw more than 25 yards downfield and a receiving corps that resembles the wrong Randy Moss.

    It gives me no pleasure picking against the Browns, especially in the home opener where I know many of you will be watching. But let’s be objective for a moment: you’re going to a stadium that plays a horseshit Pumpkinhead video to remind you to yell on third downs. With that and god-awful uniforms, “FirstEnergy Stadium” is indistinguishable from “EverBank Field” or “BofA Stadium” or “Qualcomm Stadium” or any other corporate sponsored, publicly funded modern hippodrome. For the love of god, just bring in the cheerleaders and get it over with,,, they should have a VP for Fan Experience to focus on these important things. Oh wait, they do.

    Super job by the VP of Fan Experience/Branding I’m sure, that is, if your fan experience hinged on a super active twitter feed, but what Scheiner and Haslam don’t get and never will: Mike Pettine is VP, CEO, Chairman, and Exec Cmte for Fan Experience because winning is the only positive fan experience there is.

    Win = good fan experience, enhanced brand.
    Lose = bad fan experience, memes.

    We spend so much time researching our picks and essays trying to find this year’s Texas State and then we (or I) stay away from the team we (or I) know the best: the Browns. But as I’m trying to find an angle to essay NU over Duke I just stopped and appraised these Browns. Stop me if I’m wrong here but, to sum, you have no QB and no RB against a defense that doesn’t respect your offense against a coach who wants to kick your owner in the nuts in a generic stadium. You have a better than average scoreboard and sound system. That’s it. That’s your edge. Yeah sure, I’ll drink beer and watch and root for the Browns but christ, with the mediocre line play shown last week, this team could definitely go 0 for the season without McCown. This breaks a personal law of mine, but it’s too compelling and we won’t be able fade the Browns without laying double-digits after this week.

  43. Kitty Pryde. says:

    Essay: Illinois +9 vs. North Carolina

    I’m basically forcing myself to type and submit this essay before I can do what I actually want to do and essay the Brownies at +1. Because I’m certifiable. Because I was at the game versus the Titans last year. Because I know anything is possible. Because, despite Johnny having started before, this feels like the first time, it feels like the very first time.

    I digress.

    This past February, I married into a family where the blood runs a deep, thick, orange and navy blue. Where throw blankets, emblazoned with the “Chief” adorn walls. I witnessed the maddening confusion of feelings when Illinois was selected for a bowl game, which was great, but in turn, meant the coach would probably not be fired, which was infuriating. Well, Illinois, sometimes you can have your Heart of Dallas Bowl Game, and fire Tim Beckman, too. Both of Illinois’ last two games have been (or practically) shut-outs. This does well for their confidence and I would also venture to say they’re getting their reps in.

    Is UNC football a thing? I have really only heard of them in regard to basketball. Do the football players have argyle on their uniforms? ::checks:: Ah, yes. Google images tells me it’s around their collars. I do quite like that. Fortunately, I’m well past picking teams based on colors or patterns.

    I know, I know, “but North Carolina runs a quick offense!” or some crap like that. Look, this is the South, “quick” is relative.

    All Play – Alabama -7
    Browns +1
    Indiana -2 vs. WKU
    Bowling Green +3 vs. Memphis
    Washington -5 vs. Utah St.

  44. pateslvrblk says:

    Here’s my picks
    Florida st

    USC essay coming.

    • pateslvrblk says:

      at USC -10 vs Stanford
      USC is the best team no one has seen yet. 1am games against Ark St and Idaho will do that. I thought Sarkisian did a decent job at UW and he’s well on his way to re-building the recruiting pipeline to the Pete Carroll era. Cody Kessler.. I have two data points here: he sent can’t miss Max Wittek to Honolulu or he’s 45-57 with a QBR of 215 so far this year. Either way, he’s got a handle on Sark’s pro offense which he’ll want taking on Stanford. But avoiding turnovers is the main thing since Stanford’s offense doesn’t figure to earn more than 20 points. I think Kevin Hogan’s rep is largely due to residual goodwill from Andrew Luck era. He’ll start out alright but flub later.

  45. FTCMikeD says:

    @BC +7.5 over FSU
    AP Ole Miss +7 over Bama
    CSU +3.5 over CU
    Texas +6.5 over Cal
    Niners +6 over Steelers
    I’m going to go with the Cards over the Bears for the essay. This line seems too low to me. Some places are giving Chicago 2.5 pts. Arizona is a top 10 team and the Bears are a bottom 10 team. The Packers had a very balanced attack last week against Chicago. Palmer is no Rodgers, but he does have some good weapons around him. Cutler won’t be able to move the ball as well as Brees did last week. They’ll run the ball more than the Saints and it might be low scoring, but Arizona should cover.

  46. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    colorado -3.5 – Play of the year and a TA essay who am I to second guess.
    Ole Miss +7 – Just going with my gut
    North Carolina -9
    Falcons +2.5 – Julio unstoppable in this new offense.
    Rams -3 – I get the feeling that this is a sucker line and I read Hit The Horns essay, but the Redskins are just awful. Kurt Cousins will be luck to make it out of Sunday’s contest alive. So I’ll put a cheddar point on the Rams and Hit The Horns can mock me when the redskins somehow win.

    Essay: Browns +1
    Man did you see how the Titans destroyed the Bucs in their opener. Marriota is never going to lose an NFL game. We should’ve given up 5 first round picks to get this kid hes a stud.. The Browns stand no chance. Marriota is going to roll in to First Energy Stadium and burn it to the ground. The Browns are an awful football team did you see the Jets just expose them. Joe Haden in overratted Bro. FIRE EVERYONE AHSTYDDYFUIUGHU.(These are just some of the HOT TAKES you may have heard on The Really Big Show)

    Ok reality is the Browns defense is much better than what it showed against the Jets. The interception to fumble ripped the soul out of this team last week. Poor Joe Haden was getting abused. blah blah blah. I think a lot of that was the result of half this defense not participating in training camp (looking at you Joe Haden) and the 5 turnovers . Mariota is going to go against a much tougher defense that must create some turnovers and will. On the other side of the ball we’ll see a much better run game because make no mistake about it the Jets defense is legit. Hopefully a week of practice let’s Johnny get a better handle on the offense and the offensive and defensive line show up. If the Browns defense shows up this team should beat the Titans. I’m betting they will.

  47. Mike B. says:

    #CheddarBay late lines: UB@FAU, PK; Wyo +24.5 atWazzu; Utah -14 atFresno; Ravens -6 atRaiders— mike b. (@603_brown) September 18, 2015

  48. HitTheHorns says:

    **Essay Redskins +3**

    Bummer that I’m not getting the extra half point here, but if you pick the 3 point home dog, you are picking them to win as much as cover. All my football analysis would say pick the Rams: we all saw St. L slow down Seattle for 4 quarters, matched their physicality, and look to have a really strong defense. They play in an excellent division. Their top 10 running back, as well as Tre Mason, are on pace to place this week. Conversely, the Redskins blow. Kurt Cousins is literally on a Ryan Leaf like interception pace. Deadspin wrote another funny article about Daniel Snyder, the Redskins PR Guy, RG3, etc. etc. DeSean Jackson is out (the one guy that got loose for a TD last week). Every ESPN genius will pick St. Louis. My dad picked St. Louis in our survivor pool, which is never a good sign. 84% on Rams as of Friday 11AM. 84%! That is crazy high for an NFL game. This is the kind of game that teams in the NFL lose every week.

    Ole Miss +7

    Rutgers +10 – No way Penn State fails to cover first 3 games of the year, especially the week the Rutgers coach gets suspended, right? Right? In case you haven’t heard, Penn St has “Heisman Candidate” and “Potential Number 1 Pick” Christian Hackenberg!

    Colorado -3.5 – Good luck GRR on play of the year!

    North Carolina -9 – Good luck Concierge on play of the year!

    Pick #6 will most likely be our Cleveland Browns, but the Manziel announcement just happened, so I’d like to see how the market reacts to this news first.

  49. zarathustra says:

    Chiefs  (L)

    Ole Miss +7 over Alabama
    Yet another all-play coin flip for me.

    Cincinnati -20 over Miami ( OH )
    Following concierge on this one.

    SMU +37.5 over TCU
    If Chad Morris sticks around for a few years he will have SMU in the Big 12.

    BYU +16.5 over UCLA
    The cougars have been lucky and UCLA is better than last year and a legit playoff contender so it makes sense to wager on a blowout that brings BYU back to earth. (Boise probably isn’t that good anyway.) I have a premonition though that this is one where BYU gets a lucky cover and UCLA backers roll their eyes tell anyone who will listen that they would happily back the Bruins again and that it was just a fluky game. Which is all well and good as I do this too. But what this ultimately comes down to for me anyway is not wagering against whatever powerful mormon sex magick is being evoked in provo.

    Wake -6 over Army***
    Last week I had my annual reminder to never wager against Cuse in the carrier dome. I was listening on satellite and it wasn’t long before I had that all too familiar feeling. Wake pretty much dominated the first half but due to turnovers only had a 3 point lead. Moreover, the Orange were honoring their esteemed coach from the last time they were good in the 80s. The offense had a couple big plays in the 2nd half and the defense fed off of it. All of this is to say it wasn’t the easiest of spots for a wake team that hasn’t won on the road in 2 calendar years. Army is not Cuse and West Point is not the carrier dome. Dave Clawson is turning this thing around and they should have no problem moving the ball on offense with Wofford at qb. Wake is the better team and I’m wagering they are hungry for the program to take a step forward with their first road win since beating Army by two touchdowns exactly two years ago.

  50. Concierge says:

    FSU -7.5
    Bama -7
    Cincy -20
    UNC -9 Essay Play of the Year POY! BAE BAE
    Tampa Bay +10
    Don’t believe the hype for Illinois. They are 2-0 since firing coach beckman, but they are still an awful team… I’m buying into UNC. Marquise Williams is set to break every record a QB has at UNC and running back Elijah Hood is just coming on the seen in Chapel Hill. Oh by the way UNC has 3 NFL wide receivers who are all over 6’4″… Quinnshad Davis will be a first round pick… But Offense hasn’t been the problem for UNC..it has been the D. Well enter Gene Chizik.. It is night and day. This D has changed from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and they are playing inspired football right now. I think that the tarheels win this by 21 points or more.

  51. cwonder23 says:

    Essay: Eastern Michigan +6 vs Ball State
    TCU -37.5 vs SMU
    CMU +7 @ Syracuse
    KSU -9 vs La Tech
    Titans -1 @ Browns
    Rams -3 @ Redskins
    All Play: Bama -7 vs Ole Miss

    Using my essay pass week. Up North golfing. Dart board.

  52. Brian says:

    in partnership with super p forever:

    byu +15.5 ucla

    florida state -7.5 boston college

    cardinals -1.5 bears
    mississippi +7 alabama

    iowa state +7.5 toledo

    nd +2 georgia tech

    The biggest challenge in this week’s Cheddar Bay Experience was figuring out things like “is Ole Miss and Mississippi the same thing” and then once told it is, wondering why they don’t just call it Mississippi.

    Regardless, the only one of these teams I know anything about outside of geographic location is Notre Dame (which is in Indiana).

    Last week’s loss of the starting QB – I think his name was Corey – was somewhat salved by the surprise (to me, at least) victory march by Quarterback Kizer, which brings us to the second most difficult part of Cheddar Bay Week 3.

    Even when reading his name right here with my own eyes in a different tab, and knowing that his name is Kizer, I just want to call him Goser.

    Goser vs Kizer vs Ole Georg. Only one can win, and it simply must be ND.

  53. GRRustlers says:


    Minnesota (-23.5) over Kent – I wasted 2 weeks of time trying to target EMU all the while forgetting that Kent is on my own backyard.

    Bowling Green (+3) over Memphis – Fast forward 8 weeks when some guy on ESPN is trying figure out how Red Lobster and Cheddar Bay started a Matt Johnson for Heisman campaign.

    New Orleans (-9.5) over Tampa – I almost feel bad for Winston. Almost.

    Browns (+1) over Titans – This line is dumber than Terrance West.

    AP – Alabama (-7) over Ole Miss – Parts of my family are from the South and when I asked my Uncle about the War of Northern Aggression it always led to two questions on my part. What the hell were you doing in Pennsylvania? He never had an answer for that one. Why do you not fly the Confederate flag if you are so proud of the South? His answer for that was much more to the point. He said he was an American and that flag is 0-1. It’s a loser flag and at the end of the day that is what it represents. Losers…and that’s what you are Ole Miss. You attached yourself to a loser flag and you are a loser team in a conference that is not nearly as good as you think you are.


    One of the great things about the Cheddar Bay community is that it is a civil place on the Internet where intelligent people share football knowledge. It was very hard for me to bite my tongue as I watched pick after pick after pick come in on UMass. Here I was the lone Colorado pick and the lone Colorado fan in NE Ohio trying to figure out what the hell people were seeing.

    I was one of the people last year who loved UMass and won my pick of the year on that beauty of a game that only this group could sniff out.

    Late last week I watched the Colorado game vs Hawaii again multiple times and I had two major takeaways after watching it.

    1. Hawaii may not be all that bad.
    2. Colorado must run the football.

    I also have a side benefit of having some close friends who are Notre Dame fans and they gave me a special Lou Holtz remote. It’s kind of like the SAP button only helps you figure out what the hell he is actually saying and one of the things that he always preached was the biggest jump a team makes is from game 1 to game 2.

    Rewind to last Saturday.

    59 Carries.
    390 Yards.
    48-14 Win.

    The best under the radar hire in America this summer was Colorado hiring Jim Leavitt to run the defense. The defense is coming around and held their own against 2 pretty good QBs from Hawaii and UMass. Colorado State does not have a QB.

    Nelson Spruce is the best WR in America that no one knows about with the exception of the New England Patriots who have already drafted him.

    Colorado is on the way back and I might even start using the B word this season.

    Colorado (-3.5) over CSU

    Side note: While Nike was busy apparently pissing on the tradition of the 49ers and the Browns and making them look like circus clowns they did redo the uniforms for Colorado and hit an absolute homerun. Let’s just say the Colorado players are thrilled for their stormtrooper look on Saturday night.

  54. ChuckKoz says:

    Broncos +3 (at Chiefs) – reverse psychology going on here

    Ohio State +34.5 (vs NIU) – love that number for a 3rd team late TD cover

    Tulsa +30.5 (at OU) – in state players pissed, and OU is such an up and down mess, that I expect a letdown this week, just because that is what they do, year after year

    UCLA -16.5 (vs BYU) – had them as my essay, but backed off due to possible biases clouding my judgment, but BYU’s young QB is going to run into some problems this weekend, while UCLAs QB might be making a move at the Heisman

    AP: Alabama -7 (vs Mississippi) – mad at the executive committee for making me watch this

    Essay: Colts -6.5 (vs Jets)
    Colts home crowd will be amped for the night game, which has a real impact. not to mention that Colts are still a quality team that going to easily win their division and finish around 11-5. and they get there by mopping up on teams like the Jets in primetime. meanwhile, the Jets should have been losing at home to the Browns by 2 touchdowns, but for some breaks that only come when playing the Browns. considering they are not playing the Browns, and instead are playing a potential Super Bowl team on the road (at night – did I mention?), I don’t see the same breaks coming.

  55. CleveLandThatILove says:

    Louisville +6 tonight.

  56. zarathustra says:

    Last week in real life I had the pleasure of wagering on the the browns, raiders, jaguars, and buccaneers. I repeat the browns, raiders, jaguars, and buccaneers. It was quite a shock when none of the perennial powerhouses came through. So….I would stay away if I could, but I have to pick one and tonight looks as good as any so I will go with chiefs for one.

    Chiefs over Broncos
    Obviously, a big risk going against Peyton Manning in prime time, especially in the type of relatively meaninglessness September game where his legend was born and has been nurtured in the years since, but the Chiefs might be good and they are at home in essentially the same environment that saw the Patriots embarrassed this time last year and all the smart people were sure Brady was done.

  57. CLEVTA says:

    1. Ole Miss +7 (All play)- Bama is 2-7 in last 9 games favored by 7 or less in SEC play. Lost the last 3 outright. I dont believe in Coker

    2. UCLA -16.5- BYU’s smoke and mirrors miracle play ends this week
    3. SMU +37.5
    4. Eagles -5.5
    5. Browns +1- one of the biggest overeaction lines I’ve ever seen in the NFL
    6. Colorado -3.5 (essay)- Not sure why but for some reason UMASS was a universal pick in cheddar community last week over Colorado. No idea where, why it came from. As they proved last week, Hawaii isn’t the doormat that many think and maybe losing on the island wasn’t the most embarrassing thing that happened to the Buffs. Mike Macintyre has them on the rise and they are definitely ascending. Sefo is a solid QB and Nelson Spruce is the biggest under the radar WR in the land. Their run game is improving too, witnessed by the 390 yds on the ground they gained last week v UMASS. CSU is coming off a very tough L at home v Minnesota last week and their QB situation is a mess. They don’t have one. Colorado has been the CSU doormat lately and this is the year they put it to the Rams

  58. Dave Borcas says:

    I have Clemson -6 tonight

  59. Chris Schroeder says:

    -2.5 Kansas City vs. Denver
    -1.5 New England @ Buffalo
    -2 Arizona @ Chicago
    + 4 Tennessee @ Cleveland
    All Play: -6.5 Alabama vs. Mississippi

    Essay: +30.5 Tulsa @ Oklahoma
    Location: Norman, Oklahoma
    Stadium: Gaylord-Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Opened in 1923, .806 winning percentage, capacity 82,112.
    Time: 12:00 PM
    Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
    Weather: High of 79, considerable clouds early, decrease in clouds late. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph.
    Mascot: Captain Cain vs. Boomer & Sooner
    The Game: The former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery has Tulsa at a scoring pace of 43.5 points per game. This is the prime reason as to why Tulsa will be able to stay within 30.5 points with Oklahoma. Junior QB Dane Evans won’t be on par during this contest. His completion percentage will take a hit and dip from its current standing of 58.7. Tulsa’s offence will have to keep pace with Oklahoma to stay in the game with a porous defense giving up 32.5 points per game and having a difficult time stopping the run. He I’m not expecting a close game, but the
    Golden Hurricane’s will score late to beat the spread. Oklahoma is 14-0 against Tulsa when the Sooners are ranked in the Top 25. The key match up will be the Sooner’s running backs vs. Tulsa’s run defense. Big gains will happen when Tulsa is allowing 262 yards rushing per game.

  60. RCLA says:

    So, for starters, I’m going to go ahead and cool my jets with likening any of these week’s gambling experiences to sticking my junk in a small appliance. There are a lot of reasons I’m not allowed in Target anymore, but I don’t need “that time I fucked a waffle iron” to be one of them. The thing is with that bet, you get what you paid for…and I apparently paid for Darius Butler.

    Anyway, I want to take Denver tonight but I won’t because I don’t want to have to not enjoy it if Peyton Manning gets life-flighted from the building. “And I’m paralyzed from the waist down Peyton Manning”

    We will take BYU +16.5, because they don’t tend to get blown out and UCLA doesn’t tend to blow people out (UNLV =/= people). These are random beliefs I have, not empirical facts I researched. For all I know every time I turn my back UCLA beats a ranked team 56-0. I have no idea. Also, I really liked Tanner Mangum in Cockhounds 4: Back 4 More Cock.

    GT +1.5, because I hated ND enough before they failed to cover for me last week. Relatedly, they
    did so because I got a significantly larger dose of DeShone Kizer than I had been anticipating. Seriously with that name? Who is their third string QB, LaVonte Fuhr?

    FSU -7.5 because they always almost lose to BC when they are relevant and 26 point favorites, so they will obviously cover when they are irrelevant and only TD favorites. Right? Wait….

    Alabama -7 because Miss and Miss St are going to be overpriced all season, right?

    Texans + 3 because I don’t know if you noticed, but Philly Brown is a prominent cog in Carolina’s offense. That doesn’t seem good. A Philly Brown sounds like a delicious sandwich, but a significantly below average receiver. Also, Johnathan Stewart has already played 4 of the 6 quarters of football he’s allowed to play each year. And, as we Clevelanders know, benching Brian
    Hoyer can’t possibly end poorly. Wait….

    ESSAY: NE (pk) because I will now quixotically bet against what I irrationally view as an overpriced Bills team until I have no money, no thumbs and am left only to lobby for their gambling misfortune on this god forsaken internet football and tapestry chat blog. This isn’t EXACTLY the same bet I lost last week. Tom Brady is not going to have (as many) dudes in his lap while he tries to throw as Andy Luck did and will not get happy feet if he does. And Bill Bilichick will also cheat, which helps. Like, maybe he’ll hire a guy to follow Tyrod Taylor around all week reminding him that he is Tyrod Taylor and not the reincarnated visage of Bart Starr.
    I’m not sure if that is cheating, but it seems like a good plan regardless.

    Also LaGarette Blount is back, which is fun just because:

    * Jonas Gray shows up late to practice or some dumb thing the day after a 200 yard rushing game and never plays meaningful minutes for NE again because fuck that guy, apparently.

    * LaGarrette Blount receives multiple drug suspensions, walks off the field during games out of spite, punches opponents (and teammates) in the handshake line, etc. yet retains carte blanche to show up and play tailback for NE just whenever he happens to catch the feelin’ to.

    Its brilliant. All things are in their place. There is harmony in the world. Was Bill Belichick at this party at his alma mater?

    I’m not saying no, man. I’m not saying no.

    • mmmmsnouts says:

      I can tell you from painful Cheddar experience that UCLA absolutely housed a ranked Arizona State team last year, in Tempe no less. Sorry.

      • RCLA says:

        Hush you! Besides, you’re only saying that because it’s a factual accurate statement that directly bears upon the matter at hand.

  61. Capitalgg says:

    The only thing that looked worse than the Browns on Sunday were my cheddar picks. Feels like the uniform rant is coming this week. Hopefully I’ll have time.

    “Columbus is just another suburb of Cleveland” will definitely have to wait another week or 3.

    Nice pick for the All-Play. That’s a toughie.

  62. actovegin1armstrong says:

    AP Alabama
    Dallas Cowboys
    Texas State
    ****Cal**** Essay
    Rice lit up the UT defense like a christmas tree. California will make it look like the vaunted Texas Relays, they will be running back and forth at DKR like Black Friday at the Outlet Mall.
    Texas needed 15 turnovers and a lot of luck to beat Rice. They also were completely annihilated, by, (I hope that I am incorrect on this), an overrated Notre Dame team. Charlie Strong has not taken hold of his team. The rumblings among the cognscenti are that he may follow Steve Paterson out the respective door. Chaka Kahn was a terrific hire, Charlie Strong, not so much….
    “I Feel for You” Mr Strong, but when you lose the recruiting battles in Texas, then play 22 Freshman, there may be something wrong with this picture.

  63. Jmacdaddio says:

    I’ll be without guaranteed online access the rest of the week so here goes:

    Alabama -7
    Florida St -7.5
    Duke -3.5
    Cards -1.5
    Redskins +3

    East Carolina +3.5 (Essay)

    I was considering using this week as my No Essay, however if I can’t come up with 100 words of crap about how East Carolina will win over Navy in the 4 minutes I have I am dishonoring all of my prior educators. Wasn’t East Carolina climbing up the ranks last year? Navy is no cupcake, however given their constraints around their recruitment pool (all fine young men and women, however the nation’s best athletes are not about to commit to joining the service) means they will have trouble with stronger programs. I barely have time to see how East Carolina did last week – wait, I do – they kept it close against Florida, no small feat. Which means, they’re not terrible. If I were a true degenerate I’d know how last year’s graduation impacted them however I have to draw the line somewhere.

  64. Joe G says:

    All Play: Alabama (-7) over Ole Miss – Nick Saban wins games he should win.

    Essay Pick – STL Rams (-3) over the Redskins. Had I not blown my POTY attempting to be a stupid blind PSU homer the last two weeks I may have otherwise used it here. As the saying goes if something looks too good to be true it probably is, unless of course it involves lines against a team owned by Dan Snyder, perhaps one of the few teams as or more dysfunctional than our beloved Brownies. STL beat the Super Bowl losers from last year and while I expect Seattle to have a much more choppy season they are still a great team. The Redskins on the other hand are not. Losing DJax and playing against an underrated STL defense makes this an easy one. St Louis also comes from the Show Me State which is a theme for a few of my games this week.

    Titans (-1) over the Browns – I picked against them last week and it worked, and nothing I saw outside the first 5 minutes made me think things will get better before they get worse. In the spirit of STL as my essay pick, I’m not betting on the Browns until they “Show Me”.

    Falcons (-2.5) over NY Football Giants – Falcons beat Eagles, Giants lost to Dallas. That division will be between Eagles and Dallas so Falcons beat Giants.

    Rutgers (+10) over Penn State – Penn State Sucks. They couldn’t cover against Buffalo after falling flat on their face week 1 against Temple. They either suck or they aren’t responding to Coach Franklin or both and so like the Browns, they too must “Show Me”, though I’ve promised myself for my sanity and chances of winning, I won’t pick Penn State again this year.

    Minnesota (-23.5) over Kent State – Minnesota, along with Northwestern are probably my favorite two favorite little brother team in the Big Ten, so when they play better than average I root for them and when they play better than average they should have no problem in the MAC.

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