#CheddarBay week 2; Ducks at Sparty.

We are off and running for this year’s Cheddar Bay after an action-packed college-only opening week.  It was also a half-pointed starter week so if you’ve been on the fence about joining us, this is a good week to do.  Just hit the paypal button in the sidebar.

Here are the official lines.

All play:  Oregon +4 at Michigan State, 8pm Saturday.

Jacksonville_St_Michi_Gorc_1_t670Executive Committee was unanimous on this week’s all-play.  Nice matchup of two big programs.  Oregon got the better of Sparty last year in Eugene so this is a revenge game in East Lansing.  Both teams failed to cover playing a couple better-than-you-think lower tier teams in Western Michigan and Eastern Washington.

Bookkeeping.

We’ve already had our first scoring error in need of correction (I gave UCLA a win when UVA covered.) so let me offer a reminder:  check your entries and check my scoring.

Your entries from the form go into a tabbed spreadsheet which can be accessed here:

bit.ly/cheddarsheet

The raw entries go into the firScreen Shot 2015-09-08 at 3.40.06 PMst worksheet and the one that has a cell at the top like this.  That’s where the raw data is going and as the weekend progresses and games end you will see color-coded scoring in the column to the right.  It’s worth a looksee to make sure I’ve scored it right.  Also worth reminding:  we are using the “Current Line” of the pdf that I release Wednesday morning.

Thanks and here’s this weeks form:  http://bit.ly/cheddarform


Frowns is out with an optimistic Browns preview, you should check it out if you haven’t already.


Point of blog owner privilege, here’s the Luke Falk injury from last week that I referred to in my essay:

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  • bupalos

    Friends, I just have no heart to write a Cheddar essay. Even with my first ever virgin lobsterita firmly within my grasp; Even with the Cleveland “Charlie” Browns and Manziel the malevolent coke rabbit pumping pure unadulterated sorrow and misery into my bloodstream; Even with the after-effects of double corneal abrasions* still whispering sweet nothings to various greater and lesser brain cortices, and a to-do list that reads like Kafka updating Sissyphus; Even with all these seeming advantages, I can’t seem to summon the righteous anger that generally makes my essays crackle with the redemptive wit and wisdom you all rely on.

    No, like “Johnny Football” in a perfectly clean pocket, I think only of escape from my duty to stand in against the rush and pitch moral uprightness to this den of filthy snakes. And thus, I drop the ball to my thigh and run blindly out to the right, where I see nothing but open green grass and the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) waiting for me to put on a Haslam mask and harness the beast of Cleveland disappointment for fun and profit. Mssr Bridgewater goes into his second season looking to build on the excellent pocket presence he showed last year, the kind of Je ne sais quoi that costs hundreds of thousands of dollars in empirical research to effectively uncover and ignore. His victory tonight is guaranteed, not by his arrival as a preeminent NFL world-beater. No. It is rather guaranteed by the great cosmic ebb and flow, which at the current time won’t lift a finger if it’s not to heap 3 feet of lake-effect sorrow and regret upon this entire region in general, and upon the woe-beset head of Bupalos in particular. What better way than to dangle the shiny, competent QB play we took every pain to avoid in favor of the FLASH and BANG of Johnny FlapJacks and his merry band of substance counselors?

    None. Zero better way. So sign me up. Pain, misery, regret, and the Vikes FTW! Or the loss. Or whatever. Who cares?

    *surprisingly, this had nothing to do with Haslam’s Passion Jumpsuits.

    • This whole essay applies to the Niners defensive coordinator, too, you know. Mesays this is not your week.

      • bupalos

        Every week is bupalos week. And as it remains to be seen whether the virgin lobsterita or the vice-admiral’s surprise(tm) is the best thing to cure what ails me, no further judgement can be made at this time.

        • That Mangini-led Niners defense sure looked good tonight in holding the preseason darling Vikings to 3 points and 248 total yards. And they were supposed to be horrible after losing 3 Pro Bowlers in the off-season. Imagine that.

          • bupalos

            Can’t disagree. At least within defined limits your boyfriend is definitely a sharp dude. Love the way they were mixing really aggressive and confusing blitzes with 8 man drops. Minnesota’s line is still really bad and in transition and that was a great way to just ?@#! with their heads.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      “Kafka updating Sissyphus”
      Love your imagery here Bupa! Sisyphus was my nickname.

  • Andy Rhode

    My delayed essay is Vikings -2.5 tonight.

    Why Vikings? Adrian Peterson is back. And angry. And you won’t like Adrian Peterson when he’s angry. Forgot Adrian Peterson the human and focus on Adrian Peterson the football player; the crazy destructive, unstoppable football player.

    This beast in the backfield is going up against a 49ers team that saw most of its defense retire or get arrested. Teddy Bridgewater is competent enough to keep the defense honest, Mike Wallace exists to stretch the field, and Charles Johnson is now a legit threat, meaning Peterson is going to run wild. A lot of people are saying they’re overhyped. Maybe they are, but they won’t be tonight when they pick apart the 49ers.

    (Disclaimer: As a Vikings fan, I compartmentalize what he does off the field from what he does on it. I support what he does ON the field for my favorite NFL team. I am not commenting on his off-the-field activities.)

  • HitTheHorns

    5. Bills +2.5. This was at 79% Colts when I went to bed last night, wake up today line is -1.
    6. Panthers – 3

  • ChuckKoz

    Patriots -7 (vs Steelers) – are the now “Cheats” in drop down form???) – PUSH
    Oregon State +16 (at Michigan) – didn’t expect any offense fro UM – LOST
    Broncos -4.5 – Fuck the Ravens; this is really being lost in all this Patriots bashing
    49ers +2.5 (vs Vikings) – Vikings are way overhyped
    AP: Oregon +4 – Can’t pass up the points; curious when Oregon has been this big a dog
    Essay: Browns +3 (at Jets)

    I thought about just cutting and pasting Frowns’ perfect explanation as my essay and assumed the executive committee would deem it sufficient. It left me very fired up about their chances this year. And what I liked most was that it answered one issue I struggled to rectify. After last year, I felt things were heading the right direction. And while I would have preferred to keep Hoyer, I had a good feeling about the off season. But still, there is not one analyst I can think of that has the Browns winning anymore than 5 games; most have 2-3 wins. So my quandary: how can this many people be wrong? I must have my homer goggles on, right? Well, Frowns helped me figure it out: fantasy football is to blame for the nationwide lack of understanding as to why the Browns are decent. And its stuff like this that allows garbage teams like the Jets be favored over the Browns. Well, all we can do is take advantage of the ignorance and load up on the Brownies.

  • DQuatts

    Week 2 action:

    Sparty
    Eagles
    Vikings
    Raiders
    Jags
    Bucs **

    ** rematch of Winston v. Mariotta!? Gimme Jameis. I actually like like Tampas team. I think they are disciplined and had a few rough stretched last season to show as bad a record as they did. I expect Winston to ease into Pro life a lot easier at this point and given the weapons he has surrounding him, Bucs win this one. Also, I am going to take a somewhat log shot and say that Tampa Bay can win this division. Tomorrow will show a lot against an inferior team, but I like the swag Jameis brings to the table. 31-13 Bucs.

  • oxr

    All-Play Michigan State -4 over Mighty Oregon Football Ducks

    Craven insurance pick which I will be fervently rooting against, as per usual. This Adams character apparently has a finger injury, and giving up 42 points to Directional Washington (or any team in Washington, to be honest) doesn’t exactly bode well for the defense.

    5 NFL picks (incl. essay) tomorrow morning.

    • oxr

      Well, looking on the bright side, at least that’ll presumably be the last time I have to pick a Ducks game this season. The Nike Animal House video cheered me up a bit, although they should’ve had Mariota do Belushi in the cafeteria scene instead. Anyway, it’s the most wonderful time of the year!

      Chiefs +1 over Texans
      Dolphins -3.5 over Redskins
      Titans +3 over Buccaneers
      Colts -2.5 over Bills – although my dick is perilously close to the toaster on this one

      Essay Bengals -3 over Raiders – Week One can be tricky. As of 11 AM Sunday, no teams have given up on the year or mutinied against the coaching staff. My favorite NFL picks tend to be really boring games in which one team stomps the other one mercilessly to cover an inexplicably single-digit spread, and we can’t say who’s going to be on the wrong end of all the stompings yet. (Although God knows everyone seems pretty sure about Washington.)

      It’s already noon, I’d better essay a late game – so, with the proviso that for the twelfth year in a row it could finally be time for the Raiders to put the pieces back together, I’m happy to see CIN-OAK at only a field goal. I’m not exactly all in on the Bengals or anything, but they’re a well-run organization with a decent amount of year-to-year continuity. The most dangerous thing about the Raiders should be the pass rush and the Bengals have invested enough on the O-line to at least slow Khalil Mack and/or Aldon Smith down. It is true that Andy Dalton is more Fred Idaho than Joe Montana, but the Oakland secondary is weak and will have a lot of dudes to cover. (Plus, Hue Jackson revenge game!) I am not sold on Derek Carr yet, so I’ll lay 3 against the Raiders and just grit my teeth at the prospect of a zany early-season upset.

  • Pateslvrblk is back and in: Florida, Arizona, TAMU, Oregon, Seahawks, and Chargers (essay to follow).

    • Welcome back, pate!

      • pateslvrblk

        Thanks Frowns

    • Posting for Pate:

      Hi all, glad to be back. The headline on the Chargers over Lions: Mike McCoy and Philip Rivers >>> Jim Caldwell and Matt Stafford. And that’s actually not meant to disparage the latter, it’s praise of the former. It’s hard to know much in the first week about this year’s teams.. I see Melvin Gordon is starting and Malcolm Floyd is set to retire. Keenan Allen will be better. Interested in the Manti Teo experience, he’s actually starting. But you don’t know much until they play real ball so I’m going with the coach/qb pair who won nine games the last two years when they weren’t supposed to versus the team who lost their best player through free agency.

      • pateslvrblk

        Thanks Mike

  • Its Only Money

    All play – Sparty
    Akron
    LSU

  • CLEinMPLS

    MSU – All Play
    Bears
    Jags
    Cards
    Titans
    Colts – Essay

    Andrew Luck vs. Tyrod Taylor. Since it’s less than 3, I am going to roll with this. I know the Colts are on the road, but “this is their year,” right? Gore, TY, Andre and Fleener are pretty good options for Luck. I know that the Bills have a tough defense, but over a 60 minute game, I like Luck and the Colts to take care of business. Even if the Bills control this game and lead by 3 or 4, I could see Luck and Co. getting the ball late and punching one in. My concern here is that Taylor uses his legs to extend plays and run for some first downs, but until he proves he can do this in the regular season against a contender, I will take my chances. Week one is tough to call, but I feel like the Colts will be motivated here.

  • I’ve got AK47 via DM:

    Can i take Oklahoma, MSU, dolphins, bengals, Jax, n JETS.

    Essay TBD.

  • Matt Borcas

    Oregon +4 over Michigan State
    Tennessee pk over Oklahoma

    • Matt Borcas

      Ugh what an awful loss on the Tennessee game.

      49ers +2.5 over Vikings
      Titans +3 over Bucs
      Browns +3 over Jets
      ESSAY: Colts -2.5 over Bills

      This feels like such a sucker bet, but I don’t care: Tyrod freaking Taylor is the Bills’ starting QB. I think the Bills have been seriously overhyped this offseason, too. Not sure that Rex Ryan is necessarily an upgrade over Doug Marrone (did you remember that the Bills went 9-7 last year?!), and I’m also dubious of the notion that it’s a good idea to trade a young, cornerstone linebacker for *any* running back — even one as talented as LeSean McCoy. Meanwhile, the Colts have gone all in on this season, and it wouldn’t shock me if they end up being the highest-scoring team in the NFL. No way Andrew Luck doesn’t lead them to a 3+ point victory over the Bills.

      • I for one am probably guilty of hearing Tyrod Taylor and thinking Logan Thomas. Problematic.

  • Jmacdaddio

    Oregon +4
    Minnesota -6
    Cal -13
    Texas -13.5
    Giants +6
    Essay: Cardinals -2.5

    The Cards are an offensive machine if Carson Palmer is healthy. The Saints are still content to rely on Drew Brees who isn’t getting any younger. Also there’s the whole dome team outdoors thing. It’s easy to pick the Cards to win this one. A 2.5 spread for a team with that firepower is a tempting proposition. Now it is entirely possible that Vegas knows something that I don’t, but that’s why I’m here instead of in a casino sportsbook ruining my family’s future.

  • Chris Schroeder

    -3 SMU vs. North Texas
    -11.5 Memphis @ Kansas
    -6 Cowboys vs. NY Giants
    -3 Seattle @ St. Louis
    All Play: -2.5 Michigan State vs. Oregon

    Essay: -10 Notre Dame @ Virginia

    Location: Charlottesville, VA
    Stadium: David A. Harrison III at Scott Stadium
    Game Time: 3:30 Et on ABC
    Weather: 74 degrees cloudy 80 percent humidity 4 mph SSW
    Mascots: Fighting Irish @ Cavaliers
    Series Records: Notre Dame 1-0, only other meeting in 1989 Kickoff Classic at the Meadowlands
    The Game: Notre Dame started the season impressive with a 38 – 3 over a disastrous Texas team. Virginia received a loss from nationally ranked UCLA which had successful offensive performance with 504 total yards from scrimmage. QB Malik Zaire will gain more confidence in his second game of the year and will continue his strong relationship with wideout Will Fuller. Cavilers defense won’t
    be able to keep with the potent offensive from the Fighting Irish. Touchdown Jesus will be smiling through thegrime sky’s over Charlottesville.

  • bupalos

    Sparty and Wyoming today.
    Tomorrow indy, Oakland and cmfb.
    Essay on Mon.

    • Do the form please.
      I’m going to miss someone’s thread-only picks one of these weeks and there will be much gnashing of teeth and rending of garments.

  • clayII

    LSU (-4) / Miss St
    Sparty (-4) / Oregon
    Virginia (+12.5) / ND
    Oklahoma (pk) / Tenn
    Wazzu (+2) / Rutgers

    Browns (+3) / Jets

    i’m going back to when the browns were 7-5 last year and beat the hell out of bengals and steelers because that is the team that will be taking the field sunday. mc cown = hoyer. run d upgrade w/ shelton. the jets blow. frowns endorsement makes it a slam dunk. was thinking POTY here but will save that silver bullet for now

  • From FHCF via email

    Funeral today so this is my only way to do this sorry

    Toledo
    Simply too many points. Arkansas is good and deep and that will show through the second half. But Toledo can score and in this case I believe score enough to keep it within the number. Toledo has veterans at key spots and though this is certainly a big stage I don’t see it as too big. I think true rockets get to 17 or 20 and that’s enough to keep it within three TDs
    Sent from my iPhone

  • Petefranklin

    Essay J-ET-T-S JETS JETS JETS

    Go ahead and keep drinking the Kool Aid Cleveland. This side of the blogosphere is the only one where the candle of optimism burns steadily. Well, I believe that that candle turns into the funeral pyre right around the bye week. The strength of the team, the OL, goes against a under rated Jets DL that always seems to be able to pressure and make plays. What the hell is the OL going to do when McCown is forced to pass on every down because the Clowns don’t have a RB that is worth a shit. I mean come on now, your optimism has come from where? That was such a jokingly false win against Tampa in the preseason that it’s funny. Tampa plays a nationally televised game at home on Monday night, then gets the Browns on Saturday night after a big win. They played like the shit team that they are, and the Browns took advantage. All that I saw that gave me any hope for the season was Danny Shelton. I’m throwing McCowns performance out the window as it looked like a desperate attempt to prove to the team that he can actually find the end zone. What the hell was that pass to Duke for? That a pass you would expect out of a college QB……here buddy,take it. McCown sucks and so do the Clowns playmakers. It’s going to be a long season for us. I hope I get this one wrong as I bet the Browns earlier this year. I guess I’ll go for the Cheddar Middle, If the Clowns do win I’ll be happy, and when they don’t , I’ll have 3 Cheddar points in my pocket!

    AP MSU

    3) UMASS

    4) Eagles

    5) Jacksonville

    6)Titans

    • Petefranklin

      Pic won’t come through, sorry

    • CLEVTA

      Fwiw, road dogs in games with totals <41 are on a 30-12 ATS run

      • Petefranklin

        That game opened at 41 and stayed there quite a while before coming down a little.

  • South Florida +28. Just need to get this one in on time.

    • Just for shits, I threw a $50 moneyline bet on South Florida at +5000. Mostly because of Everett Golson (who has yet to complete a pass into the 2nd quarter), and an overrated FSU defense. Will probably spend it all at Red Ivy in Wrigleyville tomorrow if it hits. (Browns fans need to spend a Sunday there in the fall if you ever venture to Chicago.)

      Michigan State -4. When in doubt, go with the QB. And I like Connor Cook at home, at night over Vernon Adams. That Sparty D is still solid too.

      Kentucky +7.5. Spurrier’s boys are a little cocky.

      Chiefs +1. I think the Chiefs will score more points.

      Colts -2.5. SOOOO you’re only gonna spot Tyrod Taylor a field goal against Andrew Luck and what looks like a Super Bowl-ready squad? I GIVE.

      $$$
      CHARLIE MUNGER’S MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:
      ND -12.5. Doing it again.

      I watch quarterbacks a lot. Like a lot a lot. I rewind tape, I freeze it, I rewind it again, I look at what they’re doing pre-snap (how quickly are they getting to the line of scrimmage? what are they looking at when they get there? are they responsible for setting the pass protection? do they know where they aren’t protected? would they rather leave a weak spot in their pass-pro in exchange for an open zone in the first layer of the defense? or do they adjust the protection and eliminate the hot read? do they know when to audible to run because they’ve got a favorable double team? what about in the secondary? are the cornerbacks leveraged to the receivers’ inside or outside? are the defensive backs looking at the QB or at the man they’re aligned on? are the safeties’ heels at 8 yards deep? 10 yards deep? 12? any personnel mismatches?)

      And all that is just in the 25-30 seconds before the snap. Seems intense, because it is. But if you are prepared during the week, and get your ass to the line of scrimmage quickly enough, that’s where 80% of the work is done. The 6 seconds after the snap is simply a response to what a quarterback sees and perceives prior. Good ones can see, perceive and act nearly simultaneously, while bad ones (see: Manziel) will likely never be able to perceive what the defense is trying to do in that pre snap timeframe…meaning you’ve got the near impossible job of trying to do it all in the first second or two post snap.

      Once the ball is snapped, what’s important? Where are your eyes on the first step of your drop? Why are they where they are? It should be because something told you to look there in your pre snap analysis. Is the ball in good position? Are your feet underneath you in case you need to throw before you’re ready? As you’re progressing to your second step, where do your eyes go? Are your hips and your shoulders following your head? They should be. Pretty tough to make accurate throws repeatedly when your eyes, shoulders and hips are on different planes. Did the defense do something unexpected? A blitz? A roll in coverage? Disguising zone coverage for man? When you finally do throw it, are you on the balls of your feet standing tall? Is your arm getting near the highest point possible to avoid batted passes? Is your front foot over-striding? (Ball will end up low.) Did you not stride at all because that linebacker is coming through unblocked? (Ball will flutter.)

      The best guys can do all of this stuff right. They can do it quickly. They can adapt on the fly. And a chosen few can fuck it up and use freakish athletic ability to account for other weaknesses. Malik Zaire did it all last week. He’s got me feeling great about the Irish, albeit only one game against a bad Texas team. Brian Kelly’s offense has gotten incredibly more conservative over the past six seasons, likely a result of having guys he didn’t trust under center. Eventually my team in Cleveland will figure out how to scout and attract this type of player to play QB for them. He surely ain’t on the roster now.

      • Let’s just go ahead and make this my POTY so I can get to grieving or celebrating, and get it out of the way.

  • 1) Oregon +4
    2) Cowboys -6
    3) Oregon St. +16
    4) Miss. -29.5
    5) Nebraska -25.5
    6) Georgia -19.5 *ESSAY*

    UGA strikes me as a team that is going to pound the ball down the throats of opposing defenses and be able to capitalize once the box is stacked and everyone is focused on the backfield. That capitalization being Chubb plowing through opposing players with some passes mixed in here and there. UGA also strikes me as a team that is going to make statements in their games. That statement being we’re going to keep pounding the ball, try and stop us. Even when UGA gets ahead they have backups more than capable of doing the same. As such, I think they’re going to come out strong in their first conference game and make such statement today against Vandy – leading to a big win.

    I reserve the right to edit my picks, as I am about to head to the College Gameday set and I will be seeking out Herbstreit’s son for some against the spread picks like the ones he was giving on last week’s show.

  • limaontinder

    -3 Bengals (Lord be with me Dalton)
    Oregon +4
    Cardinals +2.5 (essay)
    -3 Marshall
    Oregon St. +16
    Browns +3

    Placing a hefty burden on not one, but two Cincy QBs here. One who was welcomed to his first home game with this tortured bit of TV production https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b__rNcUSxgg a long long time ago. Same guy has had some ice or something taped around his leg since November of last year. I like him. I like Coach Bruce. I think the Saints are going to be awful this year. I think some of the Cardinals Super Bowl hype is deserved. But even if it’s not, they win this game because Carson doesn’t care about pressure and he’s a mature old guy now who might be boring to watch, and who might need some more ice around his leg just to walk out on the field, but he’s my guy. Thanks and don’t forget to tip your bartenders.

  • The Iron Sheik

    Utah
    Miami fl
    Osu
    Browns
    Oregon
    Arkansas**

    Toledo has no chance today against the swine of Arkansas. They will come into this game not even having a game under there belt with a Lightning delay in the opener. And to add insult to injury Kareem hunt, there best offensive player, is still out this game for suspension. His 100 plus yards rushing would have came in handy but not nearly enough to keep this one close.

    The Razorbacks with Brandon Allen,there stand out qb, is coming off of a strong opener and 300 plus passing yards to add to his stats. So take that and add a balanced run game you will have the makings of a cheddar bay win.

    oink oink

  • TheKardiacKid

    1. Steelers (push)
    2. WMU -4.5
    3. Florida -21
    4. Mizzou -10.5
    5. MSU -4

    Essay Browns +3
    I’m picking the Browns this week because it might be my only chance to pick them. Has a team who went 7-9 with very few offensive playmakers ever been looked at in such a negative light before? The defense should be improved (yeah, we say that every year) and if the offense can score 21 a game they should be pretty competitive. #WhatIf
    This week they are playing a mirror image of themselves. A team with a great secondary, solid front 7 and question marks on offense. I think it comes down to running game and QB. Crow is better than Ivory and McCown makes less mistakes. #WeBarkTogether

  • 1. Steelers (push)
    2. WKU (win)

    3. @NMSU -6.5 GSU. Watched GSU get pushed around by Charlotte last week. NMSU ain’t great but they’re big.

    4. @Jags +3 Panthers. Ooo!!! The Jags picked up Wisniewski at center and Yeldon at RB. Forgot about that. Oh and Odrick on the DL. Oooh and Nick Marshall at CB too! Brandon Linder shaping up as a stud guard plus Wisniewski.. if Joeckel gets his head out his ass there’s your 3 studs. Incredible bad luck having Fowler blow an ACL first day of mini-camp but emerging great coach Gus Bradley won’t let that distract. I’m buying in early on the Jags. As for the Panthers.. meh. I like Rivera but sense the team’s character is templated by Newton,, kinda not serious and think they’re better than they are. Likely to throw their jerseys on the field and expect a win. And if you have to keep one RB, don’t you keep Deangelo WIlliams over Jon Stewart? Jags grow up in this game; course of Panthers’ season determined in this game. Almost the essay.

    5. All-play: Oregon

    6. Essay @Rutgers -2 Wazzu.
    No respect I tell ya. Wazzu loses, RU bangs out nine TDs against their respective patsy schedule and revenue padders and the linesmakers opener assesses Wazzu to be a neutral field favorite. While I agree with mmmmmsnouts take (“This line is so bad I feel like it’s a trap, otherwise it would be my essay.”), I also think: why ask why? Kyle Flood’s o-line history is reflected with RU built to smash mouth run. O-line is stacked and RB is deep with Paul James back and his breakout backup from last year Josh Hicks is continuing his 6 yds/carry pace from last year. Even up against Mike Leach’s renowned defense laser-focused on his special arm-tackling drills all summer, RU seems set for at least 200 yds rushing, maybe 300. If RU wants to pass I like their WR Carroo. The downside: I do indeed see the two freshmen CBs for Rutgers and doubtless WSU does too. I do think Luke Falk is going to be a good QB, but still, this happened last week and even though he’s starting, shoulders are tricky things. Regardless of who the QB is, expect the Leach Cougs to hit a bomb or two. But over the course of the game Flood will grind this soft team down to a nub and they will quit. You won’t find this line under 3.5 now (It’s as high as -5 Friday night.), so I’ll go ahead and grab it -2.

    Also Niners, Ravens, UConn, Temple, Clanga, Wisco, Wake, UGA, Ark, Tulsa, UCF, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders.

    • zarathustra

      I was already pretty excited for the jags this season and tomorrow especially, but now even more so as you just spelled it out beautifully.

  • jdoepke

    Man there are some really good posts already this season, some of these essays are great and while I’ve never stuck my dick in a toaster, I like the Bills (unofficially) to cover the number. Here we go with week 2…

    Sparty -4 (AP)
    Ga Southern +4.5
    Ga Tech -28.5
    Virginia +12.5
    Redskins +3.5
    Colorado St +6 (Essay)

    Before I get to the essay, I offer some explanation on my single NFL pick above. Are the Redskins good? No. Is anyone in the world taking the Redskins in this game? No. How many times have these kind of games burned me? Always. Every ounce of common sense says the Dolphins will roll so I will go the other way and say the team that has no chance in week 1 wins outright 24-23 at the gun. It happens every year, ask anyone who’s played in an eliminator pool…PS – pumpkin beer is awesome, I could be drunk.

    Essay: Minnesota kept it close last week vs #2 at home, now it’s time for their let down on the road vs the team they are supposed to beat. Line opened at 4.5, shot up to 6 and is now down to 5. I love home dogs and with 69% of the public on Minnesota, but 79% of the money on Colorado St, I will take Colorado St plus the 6. Minnesota 27 – Colorado St. 26

    • RDGinCLE

      I was on the cusp of picking this game. Love this pick, I am in

    • Where do you find the “%money” data?

      • jdoepke

        various twitter follows like RJ Bell and Vegas Runner but this site mainly: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/

        the spread column shows where the % bets are, the money column shows the % of money.

        Data has changed since my post last night…

      • Petefranklin

        I think scores and odds has it as well.

      • Petefranklin

        Sportsbook spy as well

  • squeekycleen

    Essay play: Tennessee Volunteers: Checklist: Is Oklahoma playing (check). Is it a big game (check). Is Bob Stoops the coach (check). Is the opponent someone other than Texas (check). Then bet against Oklahoma. It’s that time of year again, fade Bob Stoops time. I can’t think of anyone who does less with more than good old Stoopsy. Between the terrible game plans, the bizarre personnel decisions (Belldozer!), and the absurd play calls (especially in the red zone and short yardage) you can be sure you will think Stoops bet on his opponent. So we will bet on his opponent. Tennessee for the essay.

  • Squeeky is in for USU tonite.

  • Dave Borcas

    The first NFL jersey I ever bought was Dan Marino. It happened in Toronto on my honeymoon. I always liked the Dolphins, especially when they had Flipper swimming in the end zone. My mom would play Bingo with Don Shulas mom in Fairport Harbor and she was nice enough to get me an autographed football. Don Nottingham, the human bowling ball of Kent State fame was one of my favorite players back the. It sure must have been the nickname because he was not very good. I tried to find a video of Don to insert but could not find one. Time to get to why the Dolphins. The biggest advantage for the Fins will be on the lines Suh and Wake will be facing rookies on the Washington OL. Skins fans better hope RG3 is over his concussion because they are going to need him when Cousins get confused. In case you don’t remember Suh is an angry man. On the offensive side the Tannehill express is ready to roll. I must admit I scoffed at drafting Tannehill for the Browns, but he sure would look nice as the Browns QB.
    I am torn on how the Browns will perform this year. With that I am predicting an 8-8 season starting with a 20-16 victory on Sunday vs the JETS jets, jets, jets! GOOOOOOOOOBROWNS

  • RDGinCLE

    Essay: UVA +12.5

    TA stole a little bit of my thunder, but i have been itching to write this essay all day. Just now got home, cracked a beer, and Im all set. Last week national darling Notre Dame beat a Texas team whose reputation doesnt match their talent; as Texas ranked 105th of offense last year. Also, I think I read they perhaps dont have a single 2016 draft pick on their current roster, which is amazing when you think about it. Either way, safe to say their margin of victory last week is way more accounted for in this line then the current state of Texas’ roster. UVA is a pretty good home team, going 5-2 last year with tough games against both UNC and UCLA. Irish are on their third string RB, will be on a bit of a let down from last weeks high, and could potentially be looking ahead to a respectable GT team the following week.

    OSU -41 I dont see any of the normal Buckeye honks on here touching this game, which I like. Urbans gonna give the fans what they want and drop 60. As with OU last week, Ive learned not to be scared of the huge numbers in NCAA. The Clemson / App St, for instance, is much scarier IMO

    PSU -18.5 Seems as good of a time as any to buy low on the Nittany Lions, and this started out at -20.5 so Ill stay behind the steam.

    MSU -4 Guess Ill take the experienced QB at home. Flipping a coin though.

    Rams +3 Dont know much other than Seahawks hype has to be accounted for here. Besides, Russell Wilson is too busy counting all that money, moving into that fancy new house, and not fucking Ciara. Ill take the points at home

    Browns +3 Frowns post made some sense to me so this seems as good as anything else. Although consider this pick a holder for a potential college game I like better. I just dont want to miss a pick.

    • Art Brosef ^^^,
      Use that form buddy.

    • Essay says UVA, form entry says ND. Hmm.
      Giving you a UVA essay unless told different.

  • thatsfine

    UMass +13 (essay)
    Oregon +4 – here in Duck country they’ve been waiting for a shot at ANY Big Ten team, here it is.
    SDSU +13 – Good defense keeps it close
    Wisconsin -32 – this one will be out of hand no later than the coin toss, and there is no mercy rule to save the RedHawks.
    Bills +2.5

    UMass… how I enjoyed watching this team last year. They came alive in the middle of the year, and were responsible for what I feel was (collectively) 2014 Cheddar Bay’s finest moment in Week 7 – when 17 or 18 of us sniffed out that line against Kent State and cleaned house. Pretty sure there were 2 POTYs on that game. ClevTA summed it up nicely, “The beauty of this contest. 17-0 ticket count on a UMASS team that essentially needs to win who has gone 2-28 in their last 30.” That is Cheddar Bay at its finest, my friends.

    Blake Frohnapfel returns at QB – pretty sure he is the only QB UMass has ever had at the FBS level besides Whipple’s son when he was injured. The guy is a 7th year grad student or something like that. Tajae Sharp returns at WR – he will be a mid round NFL draft pick. O-Line full of Juniors and Seniors, same for the defensive backfield. UMass didn’t play last week, they are under the radar now, but not for long.

    • Petefranklin

      UMass outright. +400 or so.

    • That really was a beautiful Cheddar Bay moment. I’ll take UMass for a point in honour of it. Thanks for the reminder.

  • CLEVTA

    1) Virginia +12.5- 84% of the public on ND and the line has dropped from 12.5 to 10. Virginia was undefeated ATS as a home dog last season and as well as Josh Rosen played vs VA’s D last week, they still only pushed. No Folston for ND doesnt help

    2) Miss St +4.5- LSU needed last week to get Brandon Harris some reps as the full time starter and that rainout was bad before him having to go into MSU to get his first start of the season. Dak keeps this close

    3) Oregon +4 (all play)- I have $ on Vernon Adams to win the Heisman from preseason so I’m biased

    4) Rams +4
    5) UTEP +21- When Sam Houston can put up 637 yds and 45 pts vs TT, UTEP should be able to keep it within 3 tds

    6) Bills +2.5 (essay)- Indy looks easy right? Nope. If you exclude the games last year vs the Jags and Titans, the Colts were just an average team. They consistently get outgained and at times pull rabbits out of their hats. I actually think Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade at QB and he always impressed me in his limited time in Baltimore. He looked really good in the preseason action I saw this summer and I think he’s a perfect fit in the read option/run system for Rex with Shady. And where does Indy struggle the most? Yup its defending the run where they ranked 24th in the NFL in yds/att run D. Rex will run Shady, Karlos Williams and Tyrod all day and bludgeon that weak Colts D line, the same D line that is so desperate for an upgrade that they traded a pick for Billy Winn today. The Buffalo d should be able to harass Luck enough to cause some mistakes and as much as I love Luck he turns it over a lot. Give me the points here

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Was really close to making the Miss State win my essay. Dak is much better than anyone LSU has to offer, talent may be beaten by continuity.

  • HitTheHorns

    1) Steelers +7.5 (push)
    2) 49ers +2.5 essay
    3) Michigan State +4
    4) Utah State +13.5…I am seeing 77% on Utah but line is down to 11.5. Automatic plays for me.

  • trashycamaro

    SCar -7.5 over Kentucky We are still talking about Kentucky right? The one that has been inept since Jared Lorenzen?

    All-Play Oregon +4 over MSU I really do despise little brother. More hope than real analysis.

    Bears +7 over Packers I get the Cutler hate, and I get that Rodgers is the 1a QB to Luck’s 1b in the NFL, but with Nelson out, a division game in Chicago, new defensive coaches in Fox and Fangio, and a full TD to give, the Bears have to be the play.

    Essay Colts -2.5 over Bills LS McCoy is doubtful, no Fred Jackson to back him up, and Tyrod Taylor starting his first game as a fifth year veteran? And no, Tyrod Taylor is no Aaron Rodgers who was pushing the Hall of Fame incumbent off the team – he beat out Matt Cassel and a failed 1st round pick who no one but the Bills thought would go in the first round. The Colts might only score 10 against that defensive front, but that beats the Bills 6 point ceiling here. While I am not going to say picking the Colts is quite as easy as, say, choosing not to put my dick in the toaster, it IS in the ballpark.

    Rams +4 over Seahawks Home dog Rams, with best d-line in the NFL, going against a shaky offensive line that just traded its best player and anchor? Normally that is not enough for me for a 6-10 team against a team that was one play away from winning the Super Bowl, but this is 1. a division game that 2. Jeff Fisher brings out the kitchen sink for 3. with a home dog that 4. is 4-2 against the spread against this team. This is close to being my pick of the week, but frankly the Seahawks could force a pile of turnovers from Foles and Tre Mason scares defenses so much that the Rams picked a RB with one ACL in the top 10.

    Dolphins -3.5 over Washington Football Team This seems like a large spread, but Washington’s home field advantage has been eroding over the years, Cousins is a below average QB, the rushing game takes a hit without a QB rushing threat, the offensive line is somehwere between poor and bad (19th in run block DVOA and 31st in Adjusted Sack Rate, Scherff is not going to fix that on his own), and the pass defense has been miserable. Combine that with the first time Cam Wake and Suh are together for real and an offense featuring Jarvis Landry and a non-concussed Jordan Cameron, and the Fins are in good shape here.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Notre Dame -12.5
    Mich St -4
    Browns +3
    Cards -2.5
    Dolphins -3.5
    Eagles -3

    Essay Notre Dame

    I wanted to essay the eagles or the dolphins but with both teams on the road in week 1 I decided that wasn’t a good idea. I decided to go with Brian Kelly and the Golden Domers. They destroyed Texas last week and Malik Zaire looks like hes the real deal. From what I read Virginia isn’t any better than Texas and without the benefit of a conf championship game Notre Dame has to run through their schedule impressively in order to make the playoffs. (Not sure if thats true but my wife is staring at me and I don’t have time to google whether or not they can play in the ACC Ship). Malik continues what looks to be an impressive Heisman run and the Fighting Irish roll.

  • HitTheHorns

    **Essay: San Francisco 49ers +2.5**
    Heavy line move here. SF opened as favorites and w/ 70% on Min, line has drastically flipped. Has any team been more cut up this offseason than the Niners? Retired players; fractured locker room; loss of a head coach; unsafe playing surface; new coach that doesn’t know what he’s doing; putting a rugby star on the 53 man roster that is reminiscent of having Benjamin Gay make the team; it goes on and on. In addition, The Vikings are a hot pick as a sleeper team: Peterson is back, Bridgewater is going to take the next step, etc. San Fran is rebuilding, remember? At least that is what we are being told. Don’t ask why a rebuilding team would sign Reggie Bush, but it fits the narrative so let’s not question it. Plus, gambling twitter keeps telling me Vegas is selling on the 49ers! The “sharps” like Minnesota! This game will start on Monday around the time WWE Raw is ending, so works out perfect for me. I think 49ers win outright, and we all watch the game on mute.

    • Petefranklin

      Teams in the NFL in which the line has moved 2.5 points or more against them have an excellent record ATS.

    • Love it. I have the Niners to win the NFC at 48-1.

  • Concierge

    aye BAE BAY .. its CHALK WEEK!

    WMU -4.5
    LSU -4.5 essay
    Miami FL -17.5
    Clemson -17
    MSU -4 all play
    Denver -4

    LSU hasn’t had a QB since well…never with Les Miles…(no mettenburger doesn’t count) I think he has found one in Brandon Harris…the kid only has one start under his belt (against auburn last year) but he has had an unbelievable camp.. Whats the one thing you need to have when you are an inexperienced QB? You guessed it a fucking running game. Leonard Fournette. He is an absolute fucking monster and since Miles cut him loose last year vs Florida he has been terrorizing defenses in the SEC. I know the game is in starkville but this isn’t about Miss State. I don’t care how good Dak Prescott is.. This is about the team with grown ass men on their team with NFL talent.. That team is the LSU…

    GEAUX TIGERS!!!

    (why the fuck do they spell it that way..)

  • Uncle D

    PSU
    Temple
    Maryland
    Houston
    NY Jets
    Oregon

    I know nothing about the KC Chiefs , but after spending my Wednesday nights glued to the tube watching hard knocks, how could I not take JJ, Wilfork, Hoyer and company in this home opener for Houston !?
    Big fan of Bill Obrien and if that guy can get away with that many F bombs, I gotta think he’ll get that first W of the season.
    Love houstons D as well, plus a good friend of mine is doing orthopedic fellowship and helping take care of the team !
    Go Texas

  • Joe G

    Jets (-3) over the Browns because, Browns. We cut the only likely player outside of Duke Johnson capable of being a playmaker on offense this year for a running back with a high ankle sprain who won’t play for a month. Also notable Browns cuts who we could use right now. Charles Johnson WR Minnesota, looks to possible be the #1 even ahead of Mike Wallace and last night’s Patriots workhorse Dion Lewis, another injured young player we had no patience for when we had no one better.
    Colts (-2.5) over the Bills when something is too good to be true, it probably is. This is that game, and I’m picking against the logic of that statement. Bills defense should be very good, but I think they are getting on paper a boost simply because of Rex Ryan. With Tyrod Taylor and without Shady McCoy I don’t see them being within a FG.

    Cowboys (-6) over NY Football Giants – The Giants secondary has something like 4-5 players on the IR, which puts them in the area of 3rd string secondary. With Romo healthy and Dez being Dez, the home Cowboys should handle this one fairly easily even for a division game.

    Alabama (-34.5) over Middle Tennessee State- Alabama is pretty good, I know nothing about Middle Tennessee State, it’s a lot of points but they beat Wisconsin by half as much so they shouldn’t have an issue doubling up.

    All Play: Oregon (+4) over Michigan State – Outside of OSU the Big Ten needs to prove themselves to me, I’m taking the points.

    Essay Pick and POTY: Penn State (-20.5) over Buffalo – So I can promise you two things, it may only be week 2 but I’m going big or going home with Penn State. After one of the worst performances I didn’t see from Penn State last week (I was enjoying a trip to Cincinnati instead), I’m doubling down. I expected Hackenberg to come out and have a statement game. A game to show Penn State was for real, that he was for real and a legit NFL QB prospect. Instead he was sacked 10 times and under extreme pressure nearly all game. While much of their failure to perform was a result of the offensive line I still put some of it on him.
    Who is most to blame? James Franklin, from the beginning I felt a lot of hype around the hire and was not all that impressed with his accomplishments. If you are coaching an awful team in a great division, all things being equal, being a great recruiter can instantly upgrade the program. I think this is what happened with Franklin and so his coaching and player development flaws were not apparent. When you go to a team that already gets many of the best players, and you are now successful with your gameplan, execution, etc, Franklin has struggled. This was obvious in the failure to make adjustments throughout the game. So after this why am I choosing them? Because I’m a Penn State fan, and a Browns fan, and if there is something I know very well from experiences with both is turnover of a program is the worst thing you can have and while I may not have much faith in Franklin I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and trusting he will prove me wrong, he will show me something. Not send Penn State into the death spiral of head coaches as the Browns have faced since their return. If Penn State doesn’t turn things around this game and win convincingly a game they are supposed to win, Penn State’s season is most definitely done, as is perhaps the tenure of James Franklin as our coach.

  • mmmmsnouts

    Patriots -7 vs. Steelers – what a stupid push. 2 for me already in only 7 picks. Blergh.

    Vikings -2.5 vs. 49ers – This line moved a whopping 6 points after it opened and it’s still not enough for me. The 49ers are going to stink, they have no home field advantage, and I’m a big Teddy Bridgewater believer.

    UCF +19 vs. Stanford – UCF has a pretty good defense and as much as I enjoyed them losing to FIU last week, it was really a fluke. Stanford’s offense is grossly inefficient and their coaches are absolute wimps. Grabbing the points.

    Rutgers -2 vs. Washington State – This line is so bad I feel like it’s a trap, otherwise it would be my essay.

    ALL PLAY: Michigan State -4 vs. Oregon

    ESSAY: Bucs -3 vs. Titans

    Generally speaking, I am not bullish on my hometown Bucs this year. Their offensive line is appalling and will be vulnerable to just about any team who blitzes them. And I’m sure Jameis Winston will make his share of rookie mistakes (that OL will probably force him into a few more, too). But for this one day, against this one team? I’m all aboard the pirate ship. The Bucs were a wildly unlucky 2-14 team last year. They lost 8 games by a touchdown or less and invented new and exciting ways to lose. The Titans were a just plain bad 2-14 team that got blown out a lot. I don’t know who their playmakers are, they don’t have much depth, and they’re already losing guys off their defense (Sammie Lee Hill, Jason McCourty, eventually Bryan Orakpo because he’s always hurt). Mariota isn’t going to fix all of Tennessee’s problems and the Bucs are much closer to being a good team than the Titans are. At least for this week, hey hey Tampa Bay, the Bucs know how to shine.

    • mmmmsnouts

      Other teams I liked but not at the numbers we were given:
      – Florida if you can get them less than -21
      – USF if you can get them at +28.5 or higher
      – UTSA if you can get them at +17.5 or higher
      – Eagles if you can get them less than -3

  • Jmacdaddio

    Has anyone else read this article on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football

    I’m getting fatigued by non-stop DraftKings and FanDuel commercials. Wait til the sob stories of ruined families emerge after Dad puts on a backwards baseball hat and bets the mortgage on his fantasy game then chases his loss with more action on baseball and hockey (fortunately Cheddar Bay’s entry fee is unlikely to ruin a family). And how the Ukrainian mafia is using the sites to launder money (fortunately Cheddar Bay’s entire pot isn’t big enough to hide profits from moving a heroin shipment). Fantasy sports were fun when stats nerds were the typical participant, now every 29 yr old ex-frat boy is using it to make a fast buck.

    And yet I still do fantasy.

    • trashycamaro

      I dropped fantasy a couple years ago, but got dragged back in by my wife to help with her teams this year, because she wants to “learn about football.” Side note: her other option to “learn about football” was to become a Browns fan like me, but she wisely chose to spend money on fantasy sports instead. She learned from that Trent Richardson official jersey she bought me.

    • GRRustlers

      Can one of the many lawyers here in the Bay please explain to me how this is legal?

      My visceral hatred of all things fantasy runs deep and to each their own but how the hell is this shit disguised as gambling on my TV and radio every 2 minutes and I’m a degenerate for being disgusted I can’t walk into Northfield and put $50 on the Jets Sunday.

      • mmmmsnouts

        I guess it skates on the “element of skill” clause? Which seems like it would apply to sports handicapping too, but evidently not.

        These commercials are as bad as the incessant 10-10-321
        ads of my youth.

      • Jmacdaddio

        The biggest moneymakers for the house are games where the player thinks there’s skill when really it’s a game of chance. It’s just a matter of time before the daily games are characterized as games of chance. At least with a season-long fantasy game players need to analyze injury risks, bye weeks, etc.

        Then again, it’s a decade before legal sports betting in most US states arrives. By then picking the Jets could be a good idea.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 2 Picks

    Colorado (-13) over UMass – I will pretend since my favorite team played in the middle of the night and no one saw it that it never happened. I still believe things are going in the right direction and Buffs open up the remodeled Folsom Field in a big way.

    UCLA (-29) over UNLV – I run towards the 29 point lines.

    Eagles (-3) over Falcons – My summary on looking back on the time of Joe Banner:

    THIS FUCKING IDIOT COMBINED WITH CAPTAIN REBATE COST US CHIP KELLY.

    Wyoming (-13.5) over EMU – I still believe in the Eagles. War Memorial Stadium may also be the hardest place to play in America from a physical standpoint. This becomes harder when you are not good at football.

    AP – Oregon (+4) over MSU – This All Play is brought to you by teams that will not be in the Top 20 by the end of the year. Since I don’t buy either one of them I will take the points.

    ESSAY

    I was tempted to do something with Notre Dame or Texas here because I was simply blown away by how they both looked. I decided to go in a slightly different direction with teams that were just as impressive in different ways. Quick…name the biggest dark horse to make the college football playoff. That would be the good football team that plays in Atlanta. Win at Notre Dame and beating FSU at home will be no small task but if it happens there is a really good chance that the Jackets run the table and crash the party. On the flip side last week was a Tulane team that played at home with all the fanfare and Katrina anniversary nonsense and went out and got blasted by Duke. GT runs wild all over Tulane and does not get caught looking ahead to the Irish next week.

    GT (-28.5) over Tulane

    • actovegin1armstrong

      “Buffs open up the remodeled Folsom Field in a big way.”

      “I hear the train a comin’
      It’s rollin’ ’round the bend,
      And I ain’t seen the sunshine
      Since, I don’t know when
      I’m stuck in Folsom Prison
      And time keeps draggin’ on
      But that train keeps a-rollin’
      On down to San Antone”

      GRR, stay away from Reno.

      • GRRustlers

        I came dangerously close to making my Buffs my POTY but then I remembered I like to save that for winless MAC teams deep into October. I would have to go back and look at all the Google Doc archives but I pretty much avoid Colorado…probably around 5-6 plays in 4 years. This is a really angry and disappointed football team coming home.

  • Since I can’t take a giant catapult to shoot both of these teams and the whole stadium into the sun I’ll take the Steelers + 7 over the Cheating Cheaters of New Cheatsland. Secondarily, Cody Wallace isn’t a terrible back-up for Pouncey and DeAngelo Williams should be quite fine in Bell’s place as well. One point, please. Thx.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Good call on DeAngelo Williams! Further proof that great running backs are easy to find.

    • p_forever

      the only reason i am not SO MAD about last night’s push is the knowledge that the universe was just balancing us out last night, frownie.

      • Hmmph. It was dirty business all around. I’d like to think it had nothing to do with either of us but there’s still no excuse for your Tom Brady truth and beauty business.

        • p_forever

          it’s hard not to give me the beauty part 😉

          nd gets to be the pretty pony today, and maybe we can both be on the right side of that. between pope francis and winning football in south bend, catholics are a happy lot lately.

          • ND could hardly have less to do with Pope Francis these days.

          • p_forever

            i dunno – it’s a year of celebration for fr ted (Hesburgh) who was pretty much the best in almost every way. Nd following his lead could result in real strides (#babysteps are super real strides)

    • trashycamaro

      And they both conspired to get you back in the best way possible!

    • OK OK here are the rest of my picks.

      First three college plays:

      UMass +13.5 over Colorado : This is in honour of thatsfine’s essay about one of the most beautiful moments in Cheddar Bay history: http://603brown.com/2015/09/09/cheddarbay-week-2-ducks-at-sparty/#comment-2248829469

      Hawaii +40 over Ohio State: It’s no secret that the Buckeyes are really really good, right? The greatest team in college football history, of course. But what happens last week if the Hokies starting QB doesn’t get knocked out last week to be replaced by a thoroughly incompetent backup? Max Wittek will put some points on the board today. 53-14 is still a Rainbows cover. I sort of want to make this my POTW but I am an idiot and will instead make my POTW:

      Browns +3 over the Jets pursuant to my season preview post linked above (thanks, Mike!) and here: http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/2015/09/the-browns-shouldnt-be-so-bad-this-season/

      To add to it, I was glad to see the Browns cut Manziel’s bath-salts buddy Billy Winn yesterday. If you can’t remember how Winn helped wreck the Browns season last year by his insane public comments re: how Manziel should have been the starter, google “Billy Winn Manziel.” It’s the only thing Winn’s ever made headlines for in his NFL career. Good riddance.

      Also, of course, A Mangini-coached team that’s been hearing all off-season about how terrible it is? Autoplay: Niners +2.5 over the Vikings.

      And finally the all-play, as much as something about this doesn’t feel right, I’ll go for the novelty of taking the Ducks with points. Oregon +4 over Michigan State.

  • TheKardiacKid

    In for Steelers +7 tonight

  • chuckycrater

    Give me the Patriots -7 for a point. The home team almost always wins these glamour openers and I don’t believe in the Steelers at all this year.

  • Nick

    Pats -7 vs Steelers. Mike Tomlin is just as much of a cheater as Tom Brady. So everyone calm down and let’s see if Tomlin can keep himself from tripping up an opposing player as the Pats burn by what Pitt calls a “defense”.

    MSU -4 vs Oregon. I am going to start flipping coins on all plays.

    Notre Dame over Virginia. Because, I should have essay’d ND last weekend so please give me a point this weekend Irish.

    Wiscy over Miami (OH). Wiscy gonna put up 50+ and take out their frustration on Miami after losing to Bama.

    Jags +3 vs Panthers (see below)

    Essay: Browns +3 vs Jets

    It’s time for downtrodden teams like the Browns, Jags, and Raiders to start playing their way into relevancy. QBs are overrated. Like Pett says, it’s 11 on 11 so let’s get rolling.

    Hey speaking of Pett…did you know he is a super fan of the Howard Stern show??!?!? Well I didn’t until this week, when Gary “Baba Booey” Dell’Abate mentioned that Pettine sent him an encouraging email regarding all of the shit Gary has taken over the last 25 years on the show, which was replayed last weekend in a special they did on Sirius. Gary’s tone was incredibly positive when he mentioned this connection, and I could tell he was very happy to have received such a nice note from a prominent sports person.

    Gary’s favorite team is the NY Jets. Gary’s favorite coach is Mike Pettine. I have access to the future at this moment, and foresee Gary commenting on the Jets loss to the Browns on Monday’s wrap up show in a positive light because his buddy Pettine won. “At least my team lost to a stand-up guy”, he says.

    I loved Pettine from the second I heard him talk as Browns head coach. Of course he’s a Howard fan, and for this reason, he will lead the Browns to victory against the Jets.

    • “Mike Tomlin is just as much of a cheater as Tom Brady.”

      No. No no no. He’s not. With you on the Brownies and flipping coins on All Plays, though.

      • Matt Borcas

        He IS a cheater, though.

      • Nick

        Having adopted the Browns only 6 years ago as my team in all of sports, I only now have started to feel the burning hatred for the Steelers that was once reserved for the Packers (grew up a bears fan). Therefore, I’ll admit that I got a bit carried away above, and agree that my statement regarding Mike Tomlin and Tom Brady is a bit off based. But seriously, fuck the steelers.

    • The only two teams where I propped the overs were Jags and Raiders; definitely see them on the up. (Browns though, damn. Show me something, anything, and I’m all in.)

  • thatsfine

    LaTech -1
    Both teams are bragging about their special uniforms tonight (Red on Black combination only for the 2nd time in WKU history, wow!!! LaTech weaing patriotic uniforms…). This makes me hope both teams lose, but I hope WKU loses more.

    • thatsfine

      By the way, does anybody know what color socks the Browns are wearing this weekend? Not important to me, just asking for a friend….

  • PJD19

    Essay

    Browns over Jets

    After reading Frowns season preview I got to thinking more about this game. The more i thought about it, the more I liked the Browns. It’s probably reasonable to think that the Jets D is going to be good this year, but the offense seems destined to be lousy. This is probably one of the better match ups in football if you are partial to old fashioned football, with some really good players duking it out in the trenches. The Browns appear to be a pretty solid team, with good line play, solid coaching and a steady veteran QB. They have the Dbackfield to negate Brandon Marshall and Erik Decker.

    The Jets seem to be in a bit of disarray, with a rookie coach and a back-up QB. Revis is great, but I’ve always figured he’s less of an asset to his team when playing against a team without a true #1 wideout that he can lockdown. If he shuts down Dwayne Bowe and they have to play 10 v 10, i think that favors the Browns.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    ****essay****
    Patriots -7
    Mainly because it is September 10th 2015 and the Steelers still suck. Pouncey is out and the value of a good center is like the big toe to a foot, (Sgt Hulka is not going to be there to be the big toe for Pittsburg.) Le’Veon Bell is also absent, he is at least somewhat important to their offense as well. The Steeler’s front seven on defense is mediocre at best and their secondary may be the worst in the NFL. They are going against Tom Brady with a sub-par secondary and a new coordinator. Why is the line only at 7? The Patriot’s Offensive Line is barely adequate, but as long as they can give Brady more than 2 seconds the Pittsburg secondary will have time to blow their assignments. Easy win for New England they will put on a boring exhibition of scoring. It shall be like school in the summertime, no D’s.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      All Play MSU
      Utah
      Florida State
      Chargers
      Pitt

    • p_forever

      ha i picked the pats too – truth and beauty foreverrrrrrrrrr

      • You guys need to cool it. Thx.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          Why am I always the “cool it” guy?
          I know for a fact that Nick has something going on with KP.

        • p_forever

          i too feel cooling it is overrated.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Why did they decide to let Pittstink push? It is time for the NFL to uncover Bellicheats gambling addiction.

        • p_forever

          i can’t really talk about how annoyed i am about that final drive. also due to a careless mistake with how my picks were entered week one, my ND pick didn’t count as the money play – which i meant it too – and instead stupid awful wisconsin was my pick. so between this push and that mistake i feel my early cheddar bay performance has really been sub par.

    • Nick

      At a wedding this summer, Pitt fan trying to tell me Cam Heyward is the next big thing and they did a great job locking him down with a long term deal. Things have gotten so bad in Pitt that fans are reasonably convinced that Heyward is a big time player…I mean sure maybe, but I don’t see it…

  • FTCMikeD

    Pats tonight -whatever. Hell hath no fury like a Tom Brady scorned.

    • FTCMikeD

      I’ll take Utah tonight -13.5

      • FTCMikeD

        I’ll take

        Sparty -4 for the All play
        Air Force – 6.5
        Cards – 2.5
        Essay forthcoming.

        • FTCMikeD

          ****
          There’s a matchup tomorrow between 2 pretty bad teams, who have the last 2 heisman winners and the first 2 picks of the last draft. I’m going to go with the team who I think got the better qb – the Titans. Winston is careless with the football. I think those bad habits will bite him in the NFL. The Titans were missing mainly a QB last year. The Bucs were deficient everywhere. The Titans offense and defense were relatively better than Bucs. People are betting mostly on the Bucs as well. I like the Titans in this spot.

  • HitTheHorns

    One pick tonight: Steelers +7. The below advice is about the most ridiculous thing you could say to someone about gambling. Like, imagine having a national platform and writing stuff like this. Yeesh.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Pats tonight for a point, thank youuuuu.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Also Utah tonight -13.5

      • CleveLandThatILove

        (AP) Oregon
        Texans -1
        Niners +2.5
        *Cowboys -6 Giants
        OK, two teams I’m not all that interested in, but no NFL matchups were really moving the needle for me this early in the season, so maybe that’s a good thing Cheddar-wise. So I chose a nationally televised game with teams that know one another well and have some kind of history. With 2 experienced QBs, it only makes sense to believe the difference lies at the line of scrimmage, so advantage Dallas here. And Dez does like to put on a show for a big audience, and we do like to be entertained.

  • **Essay** Da Bears +7 vs. Green Bay

    This weekend, my positive energy and I will be skipping around Chicagoland in high top Chucks, rocking out to all of my favorite, yet aging, punk and ska bands from high school. I believe. I believe Green Bay has no reason to take this game seriously and they’re already looking ahead to Seattle. I believe Chicago has nothing to lose, everything to prove. I believe Jay Cutler’s wife, Kristin, has probably infused him with arrowroot powder and he’ll be a new man. I believe Cutler is playing as a soon-to-be father of three, and it’s going to get expensive when those non-vaccinated kids get Diphtheria and Polio at the same time. He’s motivated. Trust me.

    All Play: Oregon +4
    UTSA +17 vs. Kansas State.
    OU +3 vs. Marshall
    Minny -6 vs. Colorado St.
    Miss. St. +4.5 vs. LSU

    • actovegin1armstrong

      KP, please be careful, the Black Chuck’s and Red Stripe rule is still in effect. More than 5 people and you are okay, less than 5 and you are splitting a case. I always wore pink Chuck Taylor low tops to save the ignominy of that vaunted rule.

  • RCLA

    ND -11 – I hate Notre Dame. With the burning of 1,000 suns and the sons of those suns. All the suns. But they are legitimately talented this year. And Virginia just isn’t. They’re the 8th best team in the ACC on a good day. D’Brickashaw IS NOT WALKING THROUGH THAT DOOR. This game should look only a little better than the Texas game.

    Of course, this is the kind of game early season ND always barely wins or barely loses, despite the talent deficit, so I should also kill myself.

    Oregon -4 – because until proven otherwise, that’s why.

    Oklahoma -1

    Cincinnati -3
    Miami -[there aren’t enough numbers]
    Indy -2.5

    See, here is the thing. Deciding to take Andrew Luck -2.5 against Tyrod Taylor in his first professional start is like deciding when I get up in the morning not to take my dick out and put it in the toaster. Their may be a lot of externalities – road game, Buffalo unblockable front 4 v. Colt’s mediocre O-line, etc. – wrong side of the bed, dick is cold, power is out, etc. – but none of them matter at all. You do not ever stick your dick in a toaster and you do not ever bet on Tyrod Taylor to beat Andrew Luck in a professional football game.

    I also like road favorites in the NFL week 1, obv. I think the home field advantage is minimal – everyone is healthy, everyone is pumped, everyone is rested, etc. Also, DC and Oakland have both already given up on their teams. Fin.

    • Please welcome new Cheddar, Rae Carruth’s Liberation Army.
      We think he’ll fit right in.

      • GRRustlers

        Holy shit…all of the likes for that.

      • Yeah.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        He sure does feel like family.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Good point. I know I will never do THAT again.

    • PJD19

      Get that toaster warmed up.

      • RCLA

        Apparently I haven’t lived. I’m just glad I learned about this while there is still time.

  • zarathustra

    Sparty -4 over Oregon
    No argument from me on the selection of the all-play. It is definitely a no-brainer, but I have no interest in this irl. If I have to choose though I will go with one of my favorite teams and favorite coach against the vastly overrated road team. Go Sparty! (Shitty number though.)

    Kentucky +7.5 over South Carolina
    I love this far too much to dare essay it.

    Jaguars +3 over Panthers
    I love this one too but won’t allow myself to essay a week one NFL game.

    Steelers +7 over Patriots
    I love Belichick and I love Brady. I love Edelman and Gronk. I love pretty much their entire front seven. I also love Revis and he gone. Last year I essayed the Pats many times and got to the point that I was just cutting and pasting numbers showing how awesome the Pats d was. Revis made so much of that happen though. Their d will still be solid and by year’s end Belichick will have the secondary overachieving, but I don’t think they will be up to the task week one vs big ben. Now the Steelers defense is maybe awful and they are missing 3 key players on offense, but +7 is too good to pass up.

    Browns +3 over Jets
    I passionately hate the fucking Browns. I have no other choice as I’ve been a fan my whole life. If you are a browns fan and do not hate them at this point you are a masochist and that’s fine. Some people get off on that. I will take them Sunday though because I don’t know if they are bad enough to go 0-8 on the road and as I look ahead at the schedule I don’t know that I see any other opportunity for a road win.

    UMASS +13.5 over Colorado***
    The only reason I don’t like this is that there is maybe an overreaction to Colorado losing to Hawaii last week. To be fair though that can be a tough trip and they still are likely to be improved from last year, but then again is mike macintyre such a sure thing that we can just assume a certain trajectory in bringing the program back to respectability? Even if they are better so is UMASS and they definitely have the better qb. Last year this was a close game with colorado coming from behind for the win. I can’t believe that Colorado’s degree of improvement is any greater than that of UMASS. I’ll take the points.

  • I dont think I’ll get an essay in but I like the Steelers to win outright by three TDs and to see Garaoppolo before night is over. Karma. But good news Pats honks: Flounder and Pinto might be back for the home opener.

    • Wait a sec, LaTech is starting Jeff Driskel and coached by Skip Holtz and at Bowling Green and GIVING a point? I gotta hop on WKU +1. (Pick #2.)

      • chuckycrater

        I long ago gave up on spite betting against Skip Holtz. That fucker is doing really well at LA Tech. It infuriates me.

        • well lookie here now: we got a team here that can out-defense vandy and out-offense latech.

          i might could ride that horse awhile.

  • (super p forever)

    Oregon +4 MSU
    ND -12.5 UVA
    Boise State -3 BYU
    Georgia Tech -28.5 Tulane
    Brownies +3 Jets

    Patriots -7 Steelers

    Tom and Gisele (it would be disrespectful to treat them as if they hadn’t already transcended last names) are often referred to in casual conversation as “beautiful thoroughbred ponies”.

    Using that as a launching point for in-depth pro football analysis may seem haphazard, reckless, or some other word for same, and it probably is, if you’re the type that fails to appreciate unabandoned pulchritude.

    And yet, this NFL season feels much more about the triumph and confirmation of an eternally majestic animal than it does anything to do with QB ratings, or defensive schemes, or etc.

    Tonight, a historically beautiful thoroughbred pony begins his true ascent into a magical, storybookesque realm. It’s a realm of bubblegum dreams and infinite trophies, and every molecule inside of it smells exactly how you imagine perfection smells.

    None of his profession have ever reached this realm before, and none ever will.

    In fact, our hero is the only one to even know of its existence, for he and his partner created it with their chiseled little fingertips, and with the raw power of their dreams and passions for each other.

    Everything before now was but a prelude, and never forget that Big Ben is a filthy-looking, degenerate rapist.

  • cwonder23

    All Play: MSU -4 vs Ducks
    Bears +7 vs Packers
    Giants +6 @ Dallas
    Steelers +7 @ Patriots
    La Tech -1 @ WKU
    Essay: Rams +4 vs Seahawks
    Going contrarian here with the majority (76%) of the public piling on the Seahawks. This Rams defense is going to be better than advertised and I expect the point total to be kept low. Because of that, I’ll take the home dog. No question, the Seahawks should post another great season and make the playoffs but these early season games are always tough. Also, Russell Wilson shouldn’t have passed on banging Ciara. She hot. Sometimes when you’re on the goal line, you gotta just jam it in…

  • Ive gotten some reports that some can see this post ok on laptop, phone, and then can’t see it on tablet. I tested it and found I could view this post on iOS iPhone, couldnt see it iOS iPad. Weird. I turned off caching for 603brown at the server level and now I can see post on iPad (but pages will load slower). Please let me know if anyone else has seen this problem and if it continues you can send me an email and I’ll post for you.

    Also, dont forget to use the form (ahem, Mikey).

    • Mikey

      I’M NEW I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DOOOOOOOOOO

  • Capitalgg

    Week 2:

    All-play: Michigan St. -4 v. Oregon: Much like OSU-VT last week, revenge game for 2 teams in opposite places than last year.
    1. Cincinnati -6.5 v. Temple: Love fading a team coming off the biggest win in school history the week before.
    2. Massachusetts +13 @ Colorado: UMass will be sneaky good this year. Like MAC East Champ good.
    3. Rutgers -2 v. Washington St.
    4. Browns +3 @ Jets: The only thing more rare than a Browns opening day win is this:
    http://www.wearethepractitioners.com/images/default-source/the-practitioner/unicorn_fart_rainbow.jpg

    How is that possible? http://images-cdn.9gag.com/photo/aM1Zj7X_700b_v1.jpg
    #Science. (If only I had the time to create a picture of Josh McCown farting a rainbow. #lifeRegrets)

    Essay:
    So I fly out to Austin for my cousin’s wedding in 30 hours. It’s costing me a fortune because I scheduled my flight home well enough after the Browns game so I wouldn’t miss it due to travel concerns. I’m already sleep deprived because I have a 3 year old. I’m writing #CheddarBay essays at 1AM instead of sleeping. I watched as much college football as I could last weekend, I think I fell asleep at 8:30PM Saturday. Thanks to the NFL for throwing me a bone and putting the Browns on the road this weekend. Probably the only thing Park Ave and Berea got right all off-season. DirecTV’s merger with AT&T might be the worst thing ever. There will be hell to pay if they can’t figure out how the screwed up my login and I can’t stream BTN deep in the heart of Texas Saturday.

    I was going to make this my treatise on new uniforms and Columbus, but I don’t have the inclination to string real sentences together right now. Maybe next week.

    Anyway, about this game. UVa traveled 3 timezones to get curbstomped last week only to welcome a legit CFP contender that can put up pinball scores. This line should have been 17 or 20, so < 2 TDs feels like stealing. So I'll steal these points. If I was of clearer mind, this might have been my POTY. Maybe I'll stumble into an Indiana line I really like later this year and throw my chit on that. Whatever.

    Notre Dame -12.5 @ Virginia

    Other considerations (LW: 3-5):

    Minnesota -6 @ Colorado St.
    Kentucky +7.5 @ South Carolina
    Utah -13.5 v. Utah St.
    Memphis -13.5 @ Kansas
    Alabama -34.5 v. Middle Tennessee St.
    Georgia -19.5 @ Vanderbilt
    Western Michigan -4.5 @ Georgia Southern
    Pittsburgh -12.5 @ Akron
    Oregon St. +16 @ Michigan
    UCLA -29 @ UNLV
    Marshall -3 @ Ohio
    California -13 v. San Diego St.
    Houston +12.5 @ Louisville
    Fresno St. +29.5 @ Ole Miss: Line in retrograde (total down, line up), makes me want points.
    Boise St. -3 @ BYU
    Dolphins -3.5 @ Redskins
    Panthers -3 @ Jaguars
    Saints +2.5 @ Cardinals
    Titans +3 @ Buccaneers
    Eagles -3 @ Falcons: “What could have been” Bowl for Browns fans. Chip Kelly v. Julio Jones.
    Vikings -2.5 @ 49ers

    • bupalos

      >>> I’m already sleep deprived because I have a 3 year old. I’m writing #CheddarBay essays at 1AM instead of sleeping.<<<

      This is how you grind it out, people. Battle and flash, battle and flash!

    • You’re my hero! Have a wonderful time in Austin.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        I bored you and another “cool it” Cheddar favorite for 2 hours in Austin, please do not make it too well known. However, C-gg shall be enormously entertained….

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Austin? We should party like it is on sale for $19.99. To quote Apu Hasenpatelpetelan.

      • Capitalgg

        Not a ton of time this weekend, but am planning to watch the Browns with the Texas Capital Area Browns Backers at something called the Midway Field House. Always great to meet a fellow cheddar.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          That is the somewhat less famous Antone’s East. Please have a second venue in mind. I have gone to see games with our respective Browns Backers twice,and both times the game was not on at that bar. I ended up next door once and a few streets away the next time. I shall be there, glasses, 6’2″, a very reduced 215lbs, pink shirt as always. I look like Herman Munster/Clark Kent.

          • Capitalgg

            I’ll be repping my white Buckeye Browns Backers t-shirt. Beyond that, I’m a 6′, 270 #er with a shaved bald head. I’m sure we’ll find each other.

  • Mikey

    So a friend of mine challenged me to draft kings college challenge on Saturday and I realized that I know maybe 4 or 5 college players this year so I’ll likely be taking my talents to the NFL lines more often than not the remainder of slobbering down these delicious cheddar dreams. Speaking of biscuits, I will be attending all you can eat shrimp Friday for a friend’s birthday. You can follow along with my journey of starch and iodine by following me on twitter and snapchat @lilOUmikey

    Patriots -2.5
    UC Bearcats -7.5
    Marshall -4.5
    Michigan State 2.5
    Minnesota Vikings +3.5
    Philly Eagles -1

    Chip “Ian Rapoport is terrible at his job https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/287332493487656960” Kelly is going to steamroll the Falcons. By my quick glance at Pro-Football-Reference and guessing the game lines, Mr Smoothie is 4-1 ATS in domes in his NFL career and 2-0 ATS in his season openers (also 2-0 ATS in his first road game of the season). He’s improved at QB, RB, and probably other positions but I’ve looked up enough since we’ll be more interested in Gruden eyeing down a naner than what happens in the 4th quarter during this blowout.

    Play of the year is what that sounds like, let’s get it!

    • Holy cow. Good luck!

    • More early POTY. Love it.

    • Hey Mikey — the line is Eagles -3. (-1 was the opening line.) Let us know if that changes your POTY. Thanks.

      • Mikey

        Yeah i realized my n00bness last night. It does not change my pick. Learning as I go!

  • Peter Markos

    Spygate-told you so.
    I like Sparty’s second look opportunity against the Ducks. Marcus is gone. The game is in Michigan. MSU learned something in the second half against Baylor. Sparty will be up to speed.
    Urban will push his players to cover every spread, particulary during the non conference, puff part of the schedule. He is not a good sport. He will run it up. Barrett will get his chance to light up the scoreboard.
    ND has a stout defense. Riding this horse as far as possible. This is a play off team if they dont blow it. They will get the benefit ofthe doubt on selection day.
    Colts have a great QB. Bills have first time starter. Equalizier may be that great Bill D line, but Luck is a star. Luck has more help this year. Big things possible.
    The Panthers have a QB, The Jags are hoping they have one. Jags are the North Florida Bucs or the Browns of the South.
    The Packers have Aaron Rodgers. The Bears have Cutler. Is that mean?