#Cheddar Bowl Super Bowl picks.

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We’re at the finish line and we can all read the standings.  It’s Super Bowl week and 25 points are available. Five players still in the hunt.

Line:  The LVH line is Pats -1 over Seahawks.

Deadline:  Picks are due via email by 6pm Saturday.

Good luck all!


Hard to bet against this here.

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  • Great season, all. Thanks. My pick is Seahawks and TA as our new champ.

  • Pforever

    Oh man I’m at hofbrauhaus lol!!!

    I want those sexy patriots. There is no way tom brady misses this chance to become the undisputed greatest of all time. Marshawn lynch won’t be able to run against a superior d. And wilson will stupidly take his chances with reavis. I don’t think trick plays will be required. I do hope there is controversy. Maybe bill belichick will go hoodie-less in the heat. I hope he wears a shirt with the sleeves ripped off and looks like a real jerk as he beats pete Carroll who, despite a recent change in attitude, really is kind of a jerk. Yay go pats 🙂

  • If I’m doing the math right:
    Seahawks win, it’s ClevTA, Concierge.
    Pats win: Conceirge, OXR.

    Good luck all!

    • ARGGGHHHH.. I made a mistake in wild card week that is going to dock Concierge five points. I’d had him for 25 points, but he had only four wins that week. (The entries were correct, the spreadsheet was malfunctioning that week.)

      This makes it:

      Seahawks: ClevTA, OXR;
      Pats: OXR, Zara.

      oof. So sorry for that mistake C.

      • Here is the explanation (and not an excuse): Google Docs was hanging on wildcard weekend like it has never done in the three or four years I’ve been using it. I would enter a result ‘win’ or ‘lose’ and it would hang. I come back in five minutes and it still hadn’t updated. So for some results I manually entered “5” or “0” or entered the raw sum for that player. I went back after it fixed itself and thought I’d pasted the correct formulas, but clearly I did not and the result is pretty catastrophic. I know guys made plays based on the scoreboard and again I can only say I’m sorry for that. It’s horrible particularly for Concierge, but the current results are proper. I hate to ‘spin’ this but I should also point out that it’d have been must worse to discover this after checked were cut. But for now, all I can do is apologize and I do sincerely.

  • Trashycamaro

    Pats over Seahawks.

    We don’t really know what happened to Wilson but I bet belichek spent the time “testing football’s” actually figuring it out. Look for Jeremy lane to get picked on a lot and the pats to go heavy zone with 1-2 spies. The hawks are a little too one dimensional to explode in offense, and I think Brady throwing for 250 on a team’s 2nd dBm will be the needed edge.

  • OXR

    This is the Super Bowl matchup I dreaded. Whoever wins, I will be annoyed, either by bandwagon-jumping Northwesterners or by Bill Simmons. Bring on the draft. Fortunately, from a Cheddar Bay perspective, my pick is pretty much forced upon me by the way the board lies.

    Game theory for dummies: if ClevTA, Concierge, and I all pick the same way, then I’m eliminated before the coin flip. (The last round was kind of undramatic that way.) To judge by his Twitter feed, it looks like ClevTA is going to pick Seattle (and if that has been an elaborate misdirection, then hats off to him). All the top two players need is to hold serve in order to finish with a share of the winnings. I don’t know which way Concierge is going to go, but if I was in his position I know what I’d do. This means that the pick I’d like to make stands a good chance of being a suicidal act, given that the objective is not to finish third.

    I am aware of all the defense-beats-offense history in the playoffs. Over the whole year, the Seahawks are the better team by DVOA, and generally speaking year-long trends have been more predictive than looking at recent results. Obviously the Seahawks are better than their performance against the Packers, and the Patriots are not as good as their performance against the Colts. Last year I took the Seahawks in the final game when I was a long way out of the money, and if I was in the top two right now I think I’d do so again. But as it is, I don’t have much of a choice.

    Patriots -1 over Seahawks – hopefully for some, if not all, of the marbles.

    (And yes, if I’ve overthought it and we all pick the Patriots, this is going to look pretty silly.)

  • Zara

    I went to a party this afternoon. I wasn’t in a very festive mood though. The tentacles of a very profound melancholy had me suffocating in its stranglehold. I am stuck in fourth place of the cheddar bay standings and though I may technically be in contention for the crown the reality is that there is no way I can win. The case for the Seahawks tomorrow is so strong there is no way that even one, let alone all three, of the participants ahead of me won’t pick them. Zara’s first rule of handicapping football is always take the great defense over a great offense. Moreover, the public has been emptying their wallets on the Patriots for almost two straight weeks and that certainly points favorably in the direction of taking the Seahawks. If only I hadn’t changed my essay pick from the Buckeyes in the national championship. I would have five extra points and at least could secure second place with a Seahawks win.

    I wandered around the party attempting to explain my plight to any who would listen, but usually after 15-20 minutes they would start looking at their phones before walking away in silence. Reality football may be superior to fantasy football, but it turns out no one wants to hear about it any more than they do fantasy. I took a pull from the fifth of bourbon I was nursing and retreated to a silent corner where I could sulk.

    I was approached by an older man with white hair. He had a necklace with some beads and feathers adorning it. He appeared to be of native American descent. I took another pull from my bourbon and looked up at him with a nod. “Hey there…so which one of these little rugrats are you responsible for?”

    He looked at me stone-faced. “I have no children here.”

    This was kind of weird as it was a child’s birthday party, but I didn’t pay any mind to that. I took another pull of bourbon and let out a very audible sigh. I waited for him to ask what was bothering me, but he didn’t bite. Rather than play games with this stranger I volunteered that I was depressed, then explained to him my cheddar bay plight.

    After about a half hour into my soliliquy he interrupted. “So you are picking the Seahawks tomorrow?”

    “I am.”

    “Are you not a Browns fan?”

    “Sadly, I am.”

    He leaned in, eyes wide, “the Diablero.”

    “The Diablero?”

    “Yes. The Diablero.”

    “But what is a Diablero?”

    “A sorcerer. A dark sorcerer. He cast a spell, but most everyone appears to be asleep to it. The spell is far more powerful than I had feared.”

    “What black magic has this sorcerer afflicted upon we Browns fans?”

    “You have endured 16 seasons of a shit organization with two bad owners, by and large a clueless media, and a fan base addicted to 5-11 with an unhealthy relationship with NFL draft, have you not?”

    “Yes.”

    “That does not exist in a vacuum. What franchise has been the exact opposite? What franchise has been historically successful during that same period, as good as the Browns have been bad?”

    “The Patriots?”

    “Si zarathustra si….the Patriots.”

    “Those cheating bastards. But how?”

    “Their dynasty is like a vampire that feasts on the folly of Browns fans. Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in the history of the league. He once coached the Browns. He built a playoff team with a great defense, but it wasn’t good enough. It wasn’t Bernie and silly songs on the radio. He was reviled. Who did his Browns defeat in the playoffs? The last browns playoff victory I might add.”

    “Holy shit…the Patriots.”

    “Indeed Zarathustra. Indeed…the Patriots. These franchises have been cosmically entertwined ever since.”

    “But, what can we do? How can we change this awful sorcery?”

    He shook his head slowly. “It is difficult to see when the next opportunity will come. The last opportunity to reverse this spell went so terribly.”

    “Last time?”

    “Yes. Last time. You were presented with remedies. Mangini. Belichick’s brightest pupil. He would have reversed the spell, but after inheriting a typical Browns shit roster you all gave him about three preseason games before deciding you didn’t want him. You were presented with an offering to lift the spell and you shat on it so you were given what such a response should be given: the dark days of Holmgren. The curse became so strong that most fans celebrated the oncoming disaster, so many giggling “In Holmgren We Trust” as he wrecked the franchise. Then…yet another offering rebuffed.”

    “Banner?”

    “No. Not Banner…Lombardi. He was behind the trading of draft picks for future higher draft picks just like Bill Barnwell demonstrated last week as so vital to the Patriots success, the trade of Trent Richardson for a first round pick, and the signing of the only competent quarterback of the last ten years. Everybody absolutely hated him and he was fired after a year and the first and third round picks he acquired were traded for Johnny Manziel.”

    “Ok chief. That’s all well and good, but the Patriots have lost the last two Super Bowls so I don’t know how any of this matters for tomorrow.”

    “But who joined the Patriots organization this year?”

    “Oh my god…Lombardi.”

    “Yes. Lombardi…fresh blood. Directly into the veins of the Patriots system. The spell is stronger. They are stronger. They will win another championship. Maybe more now.”

    I took a long pull from my bottle. “And the Browns…”

    “Your friends should be very frightened.”

    “But Pettine has promise and the—“

    He shushed me silent. “Say what you will of Kyle Shannahan, he is a sharp guy. He grew up watching successful franchises. He saw the inside of yours and he talked to those that make decisions about the future there and he couldn’t get out fucking fast enough. You should be very afraid for the future of your Browns I’m afraid.”

    “So the Browns suck and my only hope of possibly winning the cheddar bay championship lies with Patriots. Well,..I guess I can see the Patriots winning tomorrow. Their defense is pretty damn good too. As I mentioned last week: in the second halves of games since the disaster in KC they surrendered two touchdowns in each of the next five games leading up to their bye, but three of those games were blowouts that were essentially over at the half (Bengals, Bears, and Broncos). Then after the bye: Colts (10), Lions (3), Packers (3), Chargers (0), Dolphins (0), Jets (6), and Bills (0). They then surrendered three vs the Ravens and zero against the Colts.”

    He shushed me sternly. “Always with your mind. Looking for an answer, an explanation to feed your rational mind. You are more than that rational mind. I just gave you a stunningly irrational reason to pick the Patriots. Don’t try to rationalize it.”

    “I shan’t chief, I shan’t. I will ride with the Pats tomorrow. Thank you kindly chief.”

    I polished off the bottle of bourbon and blankly stared off in distress. After a moment I snapped to. The chief was gone and my wife was in my face. She too seemed distressed. “You need to pull yourself together. This is your daughter’s third birthday party and you are drunkenly muttering to yourself in the corner. I need you to be present.”

    I looked at her with great compassion. “I find your words persuasive woman. Present I shall be. And what better way to be present than with dance.”

    From there I deejayed a pretty righteous birthday party. Some of the songs were what seemingly frightened parent described as “beyond inappropriate,” but I just stuck with the classics as far as I was concerned. The cutest thing even happened. My little three-old approached me at one point. “Daddy, daddy…Wu-Tang Clan aint nothing to fuck with.’ I smiled warmly. ‘Indeed honey. Indeed. Wu-Tang Clan aint nothing to fuck with….but also don’t forget Go Patriots”

    • Beeej

      By any chance was the Indian Chief bright red with a giant hooked nose, a shit-eating grin and holding a baseball bat? Also, I may have to start drinking bourbon.

  • ClevTA

    Seattle +1- in any title game whether it be ncaa or pros I always take the dominant D vs great offense. In 3 seasons Russell Wilson has never lost by double digits so the Hawks are always alive for the win. Seattle’s strength on offense is obviously running the football and New England’s weakness is stopping the run ever since Mayo got hurt. I think Luke Wilson will be a sleeper weapon for Seattle. On the other side of the ball I don’t see any way how any of New England’s WRs can separate from the Hawks’ corners. Kam should be able to at least minimize Gronk meaning it’s essentially up to Blount to move the ball. Wagner and company will be ready for it. Having the public all over the Pats puts the stamp on this Seattle pick for me.

    Thanks fellas for the hard work in a great season

    • Petefranklin

      It was a good pick and a great season. Sucks that you lose a whole season on one game, especially one that you should have won. Props to you!

  • Rolub

    In the words of running back Marshawn Lynch: I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. I’m just writing this so I won’t get penalized. Deflate this:

    Pats -1.

    (this is purely a game theory pick, for the record; I have ClevTA on SEA, Zara on NE, and just hoping/praying Concierge and OXR take the Seahawks)

  • Concierge

    Patriots -1
    In what should be one of the best Super Bowls we have seen in a while I have to go with the best QB and the best coach. Hard to believe that this is Brady’s 6th super bowl. What’s even crazier is that he hasn’t won one in ten years. Well it’s about time. He’s due. What scares me about this game is the fact that the public is all over New England and has been since the line opened up. A couple of factors I see here. One. The patriots have the best defense they have had in a decade. If they can slow down the Hawks running game it should be a wrap. Two. The Seahawks legion of boom is banged up. Two of their best players Sherman and Thomas both have upper extremity injuries that should limit them a little bit. I think Brady can take advantage of this. Any way it’s been a hell of a year in cheddar bay. Good luck to all and thank you for letting me be a part of it!

    Go Pats!

  • Petefranklin

    I’m out as well so here goes nothing.

    Seahawks/Pats UNDER 48.5

    The pats have been a pretty solid under team from what I recall in superbowls. I think the only time that I’ve lost on a pats under SB was the Eagles one. Look for Bellicheck to come out and see if Blount can continue his playoff roll. The reason that BB has lost his last two SB’s was because of the pressure put on Brady from the G men. I think that running early accomplishes two things for the Pats, they will keep Brady from getting knocked around and it should soften up the Seahawk D line for the critical 4th QTR where the pats have faded the last two SB’s.

    I look for pete Carroll to try to get Wilson on track with some short completions early. These will keep the 1st QTR clock rolling along if Seattle does drive early with a good dose of Lynch. Therefore with all the assumptions that I have laid out I will give you my best SB bet…

    NO SCORE IN THE FIRST 6:30 (-110)
    this has been a very successful bet on Hawk games so I’ll continue to ride it.

    1st half UNDER 24 is a much better bet than the under 48 for the game.

    Blount longest rush OVER 15.5 yards. I think he breaks a tackle or two to reach this one.

    Those are my best bets for this game, remember to not bet anything with more than two outcomes as these are RIPOFF BETS like who will score the 1st TD or margin of victory bets.

    Oh, and for the game I also bet the Hawks at pickem early as I knew the public was overreacting to the conference championship games. I may look to place some more on them later as well, but my play of the week is the tried and true no score in the 1st 6:30 bet.

    One more thing I forgot about, there WILL NOT BE A SAFETY this year. The mathematical odds are very short at -5000 (to win 1000) so I strongly recommend a play on that as well since there have been safeties in three straight and the public money is pouring in on the yes. If you can’t afford it, see if you can parlay it to something else. True odds on the no safety should be around 1/13 so go ahead and hit it at 1/5 and thank me later. GL all!

  • swig

    I’m out, so I’ll just post here

    Seahawks +1

    I missed divisional weekend, but I swung at my home run pitch in the wild card round and struck out swinging at a ball in the dirt. All is good, had I gone all dogs I would still be looking up at OXR, in a parallel universe I might be sitting pretty. All signs point to this being a coin-flip. I like the narrative of the Patriots not winning the super bowl. I also like the better defense and better running team. I know the league is all about passing now, and more entertaining for it. I also like rewarding the team that satisfies some old school talking points, even though they are doing it in a new school way.

  • Oh man, this is such a great matchup. Can’t wait to see the essays come in.

    • Also, 5 people alive for the top prize on Super Bowl Sunday is a good result. Last year it was 3 people, if I recall? Also a good result. It shows that despite the heavily weighted playoff scoring, players still distinguish themselves with their playoff picking.

      • trashycamaro

        And I would have made 6 alive had I not forgotten to turn in picks by deadline. So it goes.