#CheddarBay Playoffs week two.

HERE WE GO!!


inmybasket1

The playoffs stumbled out of the blocks last week with a 40% ATS rate and worse on essays.  Let’s get back on the beam with a tight five game slate this week.

Picks are due via email for all five games and your essays to Pete and me no later than 1:00 PM Saturday to allow the wagering public time to process your observations.

Ravens +7 at Pats;
Panthers +11 at Seahawks;
Cowboys +6 at Packers;
Colts +7 Broncos.

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Covers isn’t giving me an LVH line on OSU/Oregon but here’s what I’m seeing, let’s lock this at:

Oregon -6.5 vs. OSU.

  • is it time to fade TA yet?

    • swig

      Time to play for 2nd.

  • shoot, just overwrote last week’s tag cloud but here’s this week’s.
    pretty damn even distro.

    • This is why the playoffs are so much damn fun. Trashy Camaro, Concierge and ClevTA are all on the same 4 NFL picks, same picks as Bill Simmons, also.

  • After last week’s 5-1 finish (I’m counting my Oregon “input” as a win), the Prohibited Favorite is now 14-4 ATS picking NFL and NCAA playoff/championship games in the Cheddar Bay open thread through the beginning of last season.

    This week, as last week, I enjoy the distinct advantage of relying on the input of our illustrious playoff field who did some especially great work this week. These are the same 5 picks that I posted here last week before Sunday’s games kick off. I tried but I’m seeing no need to change sides on any of them:

    Patriots -7 over Ravens:********** p_4 and Zara pretty much nailed this one. Oh my god the Ravens playoff record. Oh my god Joe Flacco is Joe Cool in the playoffs. Oh my god the Ravens front seven. Congrats on beating the Steelers, guys. In the season of the Ray Rice coverup, the team quarterbacked by the triple-chinned unrepentant rapist was the only one the Raisins were
    going to beat in the playoffs. Here’s a piece from Football Outsiders about how the Steelers could hardly have done a worse job designing a game plan to exploit the battered Raisins secondary: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2015/any-given-sunday-ravens-over-steelers

    Carolina +11 over Seahawks: See what I posted about the Panthers last week in making them my pick of the week over the Cardinals. They made three turnovers inside their own 30-yard line and missed an easy FG yet still easily covered a 7 point spread against a team with a very good defense. The Panthers have had injury problems all year but have settled into consistent rotations late and are peaking at the right time, especially the defense. I don’t love that Lotulelei is out, but that’s not being underrated here. The Seahawks are not being underrated here. How horrible Ryan Lindley was last week is NOT being underrated here. The Panthers (a well-coached team that was right here in this round last year as well) almost certainly are. They’re also playing with house money, knowing that nobody is giving them a chance in hell to win, and ready to pull out all stops. I still think Seattle wins the Super Bowl but this is a tough opener for them.

    Packers -6 over Cowboys: I’ve read in several places that this whole “torn calf” thing is being overblown, that it mainly just means that Rodgers’ calf is sore, and that anytime anyone’s calf is sore there’s technically a “tear.” It’s the sort of thing that just needs rest to heal, so naturally Rodgers would keep off of it until the last possible moment so of course he hasn’t practiced. If he’s well enough to get the start at all on Sunday then he’ll be fine. I really like Pete F.’s essay, as well. Also, of course, the Cowboys are the Cowboys. I’ll now have to edit future Browns season previews: “When he arrived in Cleveland in 2012, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam wasted no time making clear that the NFL franchise he wants to emulate is the Dallas Cowboys, a team with only two* playoff wins in 18 years (*the last one of which came against the LOLOLions), but one that’s
    established itself as the best in the league at squeezing every last dime out of its brand.” Also, Chris Christie in the owner’s box two weeks in a row. Good gravy.

    Colts +7 over Broncos: I’m seeing a lot of folks calling the Colts a “bad good team.” I still think they’re underrated. This is a team that was sure it would waltz to a division title by about Week 5 so I think this idea that they got smoked when they “stepped up in class” is overblown. They had no incentive at all to win the Cowboys game in Week 16, and that Steelers loss in Week 8 was just bad action (remember the Steelers had just gotten the crap kicked out of them by the Browns and somehow the Colts on a 5 game winning streak were only 2 (or something) point favorites the next week in Pittsburgh, everyone on earth was on Indy in that one, one early pick 6 and that game was over). Not a lot of stars on the Colts D, but Pagano (a defensive specialist) gets them to play and they’re underrated as a unit. Also, Cribbs and D’Qwell and Chud karma. Finally, did you guys see the throws that Andrew Luck was making last week? There won’t be many more times in the near future that you’ll be able to take points with him in a playoff game.

    Buckeyes +6.5 over Ducks: The Buckeyes should have an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball and have elite athletes all over the field that can’t be that much less elite than Oregon’s. Also, what Zara says about Cardale. Admittedly I sort of hate this Oregon program with the Nike affiliation and so much (extra) corporate/sweatshop-generated hype and etc. and this pick is probably based plenty on that, but so probably is this point spread and the public is on the Ducks here despite the big spread.

    OK, I’ll be surprised if this is anything worse than 4-1 and shocked if it’s as bad as 3-2 but I’ve been shocked before. Hope everyone enjoys the games!

    • Petefranklin

      I’d venture to say that by game time the public will solidly be on OSU. Don’t forget the size of OSU nation, every one of whom will have a piece of the bucks in their pocket.

      • I doubt it goes any more than 50/50. The Ducks are a solidly public favorite. Line is down to 5.5 at Sportsbook!

        • Petefranklin

          5 at bookmaker “where the line originates” or so they say themselves. It is a good indicator of where the line is going though and where the sharps have moved it. I think they’ll take 55K there and not even blink on games like this.
          Even OSU haters out here(on the AM dial) are on the Bucks. If you didn’t bet it yet and want to, take the money line on OSU or pass IMO. Although the more the line drops, the more I will look at Oregon, and the more I will like my Cheddar pick(-6.5) even though I purposely threw away line value. The oddsmakers just don’t make mistakes in these singular games, the bettors(sharps and squares) do.

          • Oddsmakers don’t make mistakes about what will get them even action? Except when they do, and the public is heavy on one side? Say Bucks win by 3 or Ducks win by 14, would you really say that the oddsmakers made a mistake? I don’t understand your point at all here. Lines get blown out in big games all the time, including in both of last week’s college playoff games, as well as last year’s Super Bowl.

    • zarathustra

      The only one of these I didn’t pick was the Packers, but I think you (and Pete Franklin) have this right. I was thinking of changing this one at the last minute and, though it is too late here, I think I’m going to have to follow you in real life and take the Packers

      • I can’t argue with this.

      • After yesterday I’m feeling like this isn’t my week so I’ll just moneyline the Packers. If I’m going to go down in flames it might as well be with Jerry Jones and Chris Christie jumping and hugging in the owners box.

        • zarathustra

          Yesterday definitely sucked. Smart move in recognizing when things aren’t going your way and adjusting accordingly. I’ve lost a lot of money in the past by not doing that. Good luck!

          • Not gonna flip sides or anything (unless I come across a really good reason to) but taking the foot off the gas pedal some is generally not a bad idea in these situations.

          • Holy dang am I glad I did that moneyline thing. Giddyup Colts!

          • zarathustra

            Indeed. Go Colts, but more importantly….go buckeyes!

    • CLEVTA

      In terms of the “step up in class” remark I made about Indy. This isn’t just a 2014 thing. In 2013 Indy went 2-4 ats on road vs playoff/AZ (10 W tm) and lost by DD 3 times. In 2012 lost by DD 5 times on the road. It’s kind of an all or nothing thing with the Colts on the road vs good+ teams.It’s a lot to ask for Luck to do everything against a pass rush like Denver with Von Miller and company pinning their ears back knowing it’s always a pass play. Heck the Browns harassed Luck in Cleveland and had that game won.

      • I do hear what you’re saying. I guess I’d just say that this year matters more than the others and at some point you know Luck’s Colts will get over the hump.

        I’d also call that Colts/Browns game another bad action special. Everyone was on Indy after the Browns Buffalo stinker, cold game on the road against an annoyingly
        tough Browns defense and team that was playing for its playoff life after having just
        been embarrassed the week before. Colts turned the ball over FOUR times, gave up TWO defensive touchdowns and still won, outgaining the Browns 362-248 with 23 first downs to 14.

        I guess the Broncos could force a similar kind of turnover meltdown but I think the Colts will be bringing their A game today in a way that they weren’t during these regular season AFC North snoozers when they already had their own division locked up. I know the Broncos have a lot of talent but 7 points is a lot, especially to an offense that can move the ball like Indy. Do wish they had more of a run game. Hopefully Boom can hang on to the damn ball.

      • Broncos/Colts line is up to 9 this morning so it’s looking like you’re right like you were in both of yesterday’s games.

  • awesome. pot is right. good work players.

  • concierge

    Ravens +7 Essay
    Seahawks -11
    Cowboys +6
    Broncos -7
    Buckeyes +6.5

    The Ravens have met the Patriots 3 times in the playoffs and have come away with wins in two of them…but more importantly the Ravens have covered in all 3 games. I know that Brady and Gronk are playing extremely well right now but I also think that the ravens D is playing well too. Flacco is such a gamer when it comes to the playoffs. Heres a trend to consider. The patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games while the Ravens are 6-0 in their 6 playoff games. So I’m rolling with Baltimore even though the Pats win the game by a FG.

  • zara

    Ohio St +6.5 over Oregon
    I find it truly comical when people make themselves look dumber than they are by going out of their way to prove how smart they are. For instance, Zach Lowe–I use him as an example here, but you could insert any number of smart NBA analysts–is maybe the best writer to write about any sport. Incredibly smart chap. But last summer he couldn’t even entertain the possibility that LeBron might return to Cleveland. There were plenty of reasons to believe LeBron would return home, but quite frankly they were often presented by dumb fans on twitter and message boards so were easy to mock and indeed HAD to be mocked as a means of signalling himself as a high-information basketball consumer in opposition to obviously low-information basketball consumers. This is fine as far as it goes as low-information fans are the worst, but it can expose one to blindspots as we saw with LeBron last Summer.

    What the fuck does this have to do with the Buckeyes???? Cardale Jones. We have a 6’5″ 250 lbs quarterback who throws ropes down the field and all the smart people are signalling their smartness by saying he would be lucky to be a mid to late round pick if he declared for the draft this year. This is such an incredibly dumb thing to say, but it is a great–if cheap–signal that establishes oneself as a dispassionate expert analyst who won’t get caught up in the enthusiasm of low-information fans. Moreover, it is a signal they will never be held accountable for so there is no incentive to actually be correct. Its sole purpose is to signal high status. So the fact that every damn year guys with less talent skyrocket up draft boards isn’t relevant. Off the top of my head….Ben Roethlisberger, JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Jay Cutler, Daunte Culpepper….all big arm quarterbacks who went first round and none had a resume THAT much better than what Cardale’s will likely have Tuesday morning. Cardale has all the physical tools and if he works hard he can absolutely play on Sundays. Now, like any qb, it would help to be drafted by the right organization (hint: not the Browns) and sit on the sidelines for a year, but that is the roll of the dice any player takes when entering the draft. Many talented players have seen their dreams dashed by being drafted by the wrong team.

    Cardale already possesses the physical tools to play on Sundays and he could make a lot of money for himself and his family if he enters the draft. It rankles me when people who should know better put it out there that he would only be a mid-round draft pick. Hell, I think he is a far better pro prospect than the quarterback he’ll be facing Monday and everybody seems to think he will be the number one pick. (Admittedly, I’m probably in a minority of one on this.)

    I’ve stated this previously, but I will repeat it here: I am a lifelong Buckeye fan who until this year picked against them more than I picked them in this contest. Last year I picked Sparty in the conference championship and picked Clemson in real life for the bowl game. I bought futures when Braxton went down, but still had doubts about the team. By the time the rematch with Sparty came along I was supremely confident they would win, likewise the Wisconsin game. My confidence definitely wavered a bit with Bama, but I really thought they could win the whole time. While Oregon certainly presents some challenges for the defense and I’m concerned about the turnover margin I again expect the Buckeyes to win outright.

    Panthers +11 over Seahawks
    The Seahawks (like the Patriots) saw their season turn around after a loss in Kansas City. They’ve won six straight since then and, as Peter King noted in his column Monday, have only allowed three touchdowns and 39 points total during their streak. Very impressive without a doubt. But maybe a bit less impressive than it appears on the surface when we consider the quarterbacks of those six teams: Stanton, Kaeperick, Sanchez, Kaeperick, Lindley, and Hill. (FWIW the starting quarterbacks in two of their earlier wins were Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr.)

    Cam Newton may never prove worthy of his draft status, but he is definitely a tier above that illustrious group.

    I love the Seahawks as much as the next guy, but I’m not laying double-digits in a playoff game. Even at home. This is admittedly mostly noise, but I shall submit it for your consideration nevertheless: in the past six playoff games of the Seahawks under Pete Carroll they would have covered this number only one time and it wasn’t even at home but on a neutral field last February. Even if the Seahawks stomp them Saturday I will have no regrets having taken the Panthers with the points.

    Colts +7 over Broncos
    Peyton Manning has led his teams to the playoffs on 13 occasions and has advanced past the divisonal round four times and 8 times he has gone one and done. His teams are 2-4 off a 1st round bye, averaging 24 points per game. Also, the forecast indicates that the temperature very well may be in the thirties or even twenties Sunday with a pretty decent chance of snow.

    I’ll take the points and won’t be a bit surprised if the Colts pull off the upset.

    Cowboys +6 over Packers
    Aaron Rodgers is probably the best quarterback in the game at this point, but he has only advanced past the divisonal round once in his five playoff appearances. Moreover, he is injured.

    Patriots – 7 over Ravens ***
    Has anyone heard about how the Ravens have the Patriots number and they aren’t the least bit scared about going to Foxborough in January? I can’t believe nobody is talking about it. The Ravens did win there the last time they met in the playoffs. I can’t believe people aren’t making a bigger deal of it.

    Either way, this is a different Ravens team and this is a MUCH different Pats team. I purchased Ravens futures before the season so their merit as a contender is by no means lost on me. Indeed, last year I squandered any cheddarbay playoff hopes that I had by picking them five of the last six weeks of the season and essaying them twice. Truth be told, I kind of love their team. But they are just too banged up right now. Pittsburgh’s defense is not good and the Ravens exploited it accordingly, but leading up to that game they strugled to score against the Browns (20 ponts), Texans(13 points), and Jaguars (20 points). Now, those are actually some decent defenses, but none are the Patriots. Let’s consider what that Pats D has done in the second half of games since that fateful night in Kansas City: They surrendered two touchdowns in each of the next five games leading up to their bye, but three of those games were blowouts that were essentially over at the half (Bengals, Bears, and Broncos). Then after the bye: Colts (10), Lions (3), Packers (3), Chargers (0), Dolphins (0), Jets (6), and Bills (0). So when it matters the most they play their best. They lead the way for the Patriots for the first time in god knows how many years, but the offense isn’t too bad either. They outscored their opponent in the second halves of each of those games, save for week seven against the Jets.

    Oh, and my guess is that the Patriots have heard about how the Ravens have had their number in the playoffs. These teams have met since that AFC championship game two years. Patriots 41 Ravens 7. I’m expecting a similar result here.

    • 1000x likes for the cardale commentary.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      viva Cardale and thank you MB!
      Just because one may be larger than what is expected for one’s respective position does not necessarily mean that said person may not be faster too. Bravo MB/jk!

  • trashycamaro

    Ravens +7 at Pats
    Seahawks -11 over Panthers
    Cowboys +6 at Packers
    Essay: Broncos -7 over Colts

    So, essay. This is a rough week and picking specific games over picking which game I would like to pick makes it tougher (although obviously understandable).

    Honestly, nothing really jumps out to me as a “best play”, so I am going to work backwards in terms of confidence.

    Ravens/Pats is my least confident pick. I think the Pats win, but between the cold weather, the Ravens shutdown of Jimmy Graham (analogous to Gronk), the complete lack of fun in watching you pick kill the clock when up by 3, and the overwhelming perception of Ravens as Pats killer (i.e. the game theory element for defending 2nd place), 7 points is too much.

    Cowboys/Packers is an unending string of storylines, but I am running with points mostly to hedge against Rodgers’ injury. Last I saw a partial torn calf muscle. Kind of a big deal.

    Seahawks/Panthers is a huge line. I really want to take the Panthers. But then I keep remembering how bad they looked against an Arizona team that completely fell apart. If Chancellor can tie up Olsen, the Panthers could very well lose 12-0.

    So, that leaves the Broncos over the Colts. The worries here: Peyton is hurt and keeps throwing flutter balls; Luck keeps his progression moving forward, lifting the entire team on his back, throwing for 500 yards; the Broncos go run-heavy and do not score enough to cover the spread. Any of these three things could happen, and I worry about all of them. That said, Peyton can still throw bubble screens to Thomas, Thomas, and Sanders, and CJ Anderson makes his return. Talib should be able to keep Hilton in check, and the Colts do not have a 1a threat. The Colts will have trouble keeping the Broncos off the field now that TRich is on the punt coverage team. This line is the one that seems the most off. (But seriously, I am still terrified of this happening again).

    Oh, and Oregon -6.5 over OSU. Urban’s great … eh, you guys know CFB better than I do.

  • Tim Butler

    Pats
    Seahawks – Essay
    Cowboys
    Colts
    Ohio St.

    The panthers have beat one team with a winning record all season (Lions – week 2). At times last week it looked like they might lose to Ryan Lindley. They now face the best team in the league, in the toughest stadium to play in, with a banged up Cam Newton at quarterback. The Seahawks are rested, mostly healthy, and peaking at the right time. Russell Wilson is one of the 5 best quarterbacks in the NFL, Baldwin is starting to emerge as a reliable receiver, and beast mode has been in full effect. Seattle tends to play closer games than other elite teams so it could be close, but I like Seattle to cover.

  • oxr

    Games where I will be rooting for the opposite outcome:
    OSU +6.5 over Oregon – insurance pick; if it’s wrong, I expect it to be wrong with the majority and I’ll be too busy jumping up and down whooping to care.
    Colts +7 over Broncos

    Games where the line looks a bit too high:
    Panthers +11 over Seahawks – blegh
    Ravens +7 over Patriots – ditto

    Essay Cowboys +6 over Packers – In order to make up ground at this late stage, it’s not enough to be right: we have to be right when others (and especially ClevTA) are wrong. (For that reason I’m OK with having last week’s Dallas-Detroit game be the hill I die on this year- it wasn’t one of history’s worst beats or anything, but Dallas missing a field goal and Detroit making two was certainly an unusual turn of events). This mandates riskier picks. I think the sub-TD line will draw more people to the Packers. So, here goes nothing.

    The Packers have been a better team than the Cowboys, but not to an astonishing extent. (#3 vs #6 in DVOA on the season). For what it’s worth, Dallas has been extremely good on the road. And most important of all, the status of Aaron Rodgers’ calf is not presently clear, although he’s pretty clearly going to play. If he comes out at less than 100%, this line starts to look a lot friendlier.

    (Other injuries: the baling-wire-dependent Cowboys D gets Rolando McClain back, and their roster construction is such that this is a good thing. Also Jeremy Mincey, whom they essentially swapped for DeMarcus Ware because Jerry Jones is bad at the salary cap.)

    Overall, I don’t love any of these games – if I didn’t have a rooting interest, Oregon or Denver might be tempting, but I seem to be back to picking against my teams as favorites – so I’m stuck looking for zany outcomes, and I’ve talked myself into this one. Packers by 3!

  • pforever

    playoff picks part deux
    i was saving them. These are the real deal super p picks:

    ****pats -7 ravens
    panthers +11 seahawks (too many points, esp with no lotulelei for the seahawks)
    cowboys +6 packers (solely based on rodgers’ calf and subject to last minute change)
    indy +7 broncos (broncos are overrated (again))
    buckeyes +6.5 ducks (the best thing that ever happened to urban meyer is marty gallito.)

    The more everyone talks about jo flacco and how vulnerable the pats are to the ravens in this position, the happier I am about this pick. from an “I want to destroy you”/competitive fire perspective, brady and his ice-blue stare crushes everyone else in this competition already, but questioning him is the one way to make sure his performance is maximized. contrast this with joe flacco’s flat unaffected countenance. only such an emotionless automaton could stand at the helm of this team without it registering anywhere in his face – not even in one little line – that he knows as well as the rest of us that the ravens have gone as far as they will be permitted to go in this season of the ray rice cover up. and that’s aside from the x’s and o’s reasons favoring new england. In divisional round contests past, the pats have had to face a murderous-rage ray lewis driven defense. not so this year. I don’t even think the ravens would have been able to stop that fat rapist in Pittsburgh but for the fact that he was missing a crucial piece in le’veon bell. Oh – and speaking of crucial pieces – brady has a healthy gronk available to him tomorrow. he also has darrelle revis, making this pats’ defensive unit stronger than the one the ravens saw last time these two teams met in this round. the pats are the lock of the week, and I couldn’t be happier about it. (this one’s for you, baby joiner, and your proud papa too.)

    Hi happy Saturday- I can’t handle backing those stupid cowboys so please change my pick on that game to the packers. Thx.

  • rolub

    so I’m all ready to be the only one on Oregon -6.5 regardless of the move to 6 and then I see this WR news and have no idea how this will affect the line; so my prediction is everyone’s on tOSU, and i’ll be damned if I go out on a limb with a bad number.
    tOSU +6.5
    NE -7
    GB -6
    IND +7

    Essay: SEA -11
    I’m sticking with my “Carolina sucks” theory; a home win against Ryan Lindley’s 10th worst effort from a QB in NFL history isn’t changing my mind. Some think that the line move off the opening 11/11.5 (depending on where you shop) indicates sharps are on Carolina, but once those low limits were lifted and real money started exchanging hands, it started flowing to the clear #1 team in the NFL, who gets to play the worst team to make the playoffs (by record, of course). It’ll be hard for some people to pass up double digit points; that’s their choice. I’ll take the team with the steam and my super-secret patented fade formula (only super secret if you don’t have Football Outsiders premium service… which is worth the money to fade). But simply put: strong defense, underrated offense, up against a team whose Week 17 buttwhoopin’ of ATL is no more impressive this week than it was last week.

  • clevta

    Ravens +7
    Seattle -11
    Cowboys +6

    Denver -7 (essay): Denver is 8-0 at home this year and won 7 of the 8 by at least 7 points. The only game that was closer was a 3 pt W vs Miami and the Dolphins backdoored that game with a td in the last minute. Colts meanwhile have been awful whenever they’ve had to step up in class this season. In 3 games vs 10+ win playoff teams on the road (Den, Pitt, Dallas) the Colts are 0-3 and have lost by an average of 20 pts a game. When you have zero run game on offense and you put the stress on your QB to be perfect versus a pass rush that knows you are throwing and can pin their ears back it’s tough to overcome. Denver is 8th in opponent passer rating and #1 in defensive pass yards per attempt. Temperatures are expected to be in the 40’s in Denver but no wind or precipitation so Peyton should be comfortable.

    OSU +6.5

  • swig

    Pats -7, as long as neither is in the super bowl I will be happy
    Packers -6, ***ESSAY***
    Broncos -7, don’t like the Colts, but don’t trust Peyton’s health
    Seahawks -11, waivered most on this pick
    Oregon -6.5, if I am wrong I probably won’t care

    Well, CLEVTA is the favorite for first, and I am looking up at second. There are 32 possible pick sets, I need to find a unique combo. I must employ a bit of game theory and find a unique combo. I am guessing no one will go chalk, and pick an essay out of this result. Given these constraints I will take the Pack. Only line under a TD, and potential to take advantage of a weak defense. Do not trust my picks, I was wrong in the last round, and am simply attempting to fade the field. Go randomness!

    • swig

      Not that it matters, because I am clearly out. Looks like my Broncos pick is showing up as a win in the spreadsheet.

  • Petefranklin

    Essay: Green Bay -6

    This game is a great matchup for Green Bay. Dallas’ pass defense is still horrendous as they showed last week vs a one dimensional Calvin Johnson dominated passing attack. The Lions should have won that game easily, and that was without much of a running threat which the Packers do have in the banging Lacy. Quite simply I doubt that Dallas gets too many stops on defense on Sunday. That should put enough pressure on Romo and the boys to abandon the running game mid third quarter. We all know that Romo is questionable when winning the game is put broadly on his shoulders.
    For Green Bay to win Rodgers, who had the absolute prettiest throws at home this year that I’ve EVER seen, has to be healthy. There was some doubt earlier, but he had a full practice on friday. I was worried enough about Rodgers health that I bought off of 60% of my original Packer bet that I placed Sunday evening. BTW that was my first bet of the playoffs, and even though I lost 10 in a row on Cheddar, I only lost real $$$ with Arizona wildcats taking a vacation. The reason that I placed the GB bet was that I got -6 when the prevailing line was -6.5 or 7. In Vegas I got the only 6 at the time.
    Long story short, Rodgers has been too good at home this year to not have another outstanding game and Romo won’t be able to keep up when he is called upon in the second half.

    As for today:

    Patriots -7… Ravens are probably the right side but too much love for the Ravens after they beat a crappy Steeler team. I’m hoping all the Cheddarheads grab the points here as memories of Ray Lewis’ defense quickly fade. Too much love for Flacco as well as the Pats defense will handle his crap rather well today

    Panthers +11 Prime time game that the refs keep close

    Broncos -7

    Ducks -6.5 This is my contrainian play especially for the contest. I still don’t trust the Bucks defense…they let Michigan score like the wolves actually had a real offense, which they did not.
    I hate the fact that FSU absolutely gave them the game last week though.Works against the Ducks this week

    • Petefranklin

      And while I have the podium, my wife informs me that the price of bourbon is going up. That in itself would not be so bad, I figured corn prices or something, but she explains that it’s hipsters. I’m like WTF Hipsters? She says they are starting to drink Manhattens and shit that hasn’t been around since the 40’s. Now I really hate these douchebags, moreso than before. If you can’t grow a lumberjack/biker style beard like Franklin has than you shouldn’t grow one in the first place. Now you’re getting into my bourbon supply? FU hipsters!

      Make the world a better place, punch a hipster in the face. Thanks.

      • like button =/= advocating punching hipsters in their faces.
        well, unless you spot these guys.

        • Petefranklin

          Who are they?

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Mr Franklin, you know I love you. Please point out the hipsters in question and I shall punch them with gusto and pleasure. Make the world a better place, punch a hipster in the face

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