#CheddarBay week 17, Seahawks -7.5 at Cards.

Andre Roberts,  Brandon Browner
Covers isn’t giving me lines for the college games (from any book, not just LVH). So let’s use Sportsbook’s lines via scoreandodds.

All-play is Sunday Night Football Seahawks -7.5 at Cardinals.

Late line:  Browns +3 at Panthers.

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Six way tie for the weekly last week:  Mo_by_Dick, OXR, Rob, Schroedinger, Shoseph, TrashyCamaro all had seven points.

Check out MTAF’s Down By Contact podcast with Jeff Rich. CLEVTA hit all his pick late week.  HitTheHorns is up this week.  These guys are good.  I mean the pod starts with:  so HTH you essay’d the Bills last week, what was your thinking?”  “This game checked all the boxes for me, Green Bay on short week after a big win against a rugged defense in tough place to play.”  I mean, it was more sound rationale in five seconds than I’ve had all month.  I sit in, and I’m thinking my role is to be provide the ‘public’ ‘square’ position on the games.  Anyway, it should be Friday, worth a listen.

Might be back with some more later.

  • HitTheHorns

    Please cancel my pick on Arizona Cardinals.

    I will take Seattle Seahawks -7.5

  • Petefranklin

    ALERT: Jim Feist POY is on Seattle! This guy never loses!
    AP) Cards +7.5

  • bupalos

    Sea Chickens tonight. And I guess we better make that one another Play Of The Year.

  • zarathustra

    So….Johnny over Teddy….worse than the mingo pick, right?

    • zarathustra

      On a related note: the qb coach is looking for a job a week from now, right? Maybe he and johnny can join forces in the cfl so they can wreck a league together.

    • bupalos

      It’s early for that. Hopefully Johnny’s ego kicks in and he refuses to lose. I still think he’s going to be good if the personality issues break the right way. But I do feel like he’s about 1 more Bieber/dollar bill picture from being out of the league. Not sure he really wants it. The worst sign so far to me is his latest comment insisting “I want to be the guy.” Guys who want to be the guy pretty much never say they want to be the guy. Why do you think you need to say that?

      • zarathustra

        6 quarters is indeed to early to make a final judgment. At the same time, I would feel a whole lot better going into 2015 with teddy.

  • PJD19


  • p_forever

    Last 3 picks-

    Colts +3 cowboys***
    Seahawks +7.5 cardinals
    Bengals +3 broncos

    Essay in comments

    • p_forever

      Even though the colts might not be playing for a first week bye in the playoffs, this isn’t peyton’s indy anymore, and i think andrew luck makes sure everyone comes to play. He likes being the best qb on the field, and tony romo is especially vulnerable this week. He’s got that broken back (which all the qb’s seem to have nowadays) plus there is no way demarco murray can actually play with that broken hand. Getting points makes this too good to pass up.

  • Matt Borcas

    Giants +4.5 over Rams
    Bills -5.5 over Raiders
    Cowboys -3 over Colts
    Seahawks -7.5 over Cards
    Memphis -1 over BYU

    • Matt Borcas

      Gonna essay the Broncos -3 over the Bengals tonight. It’s unseasonably warm in Cincy — 50 degrees — and that obviously works in Peyton’s favor. Plus, the Broncos need to win to secure a first-round playoff bye, and the Bengals have been dependably bipolar all season long, so I think they’ll follow up last week’s blowout win over the Browns with a poor showing. Meanwhile, CJ Anderson has been a revelation for the Broncos — much, much better than Ball/Hillman — and has taken some pressure off Manning in recent weeks. When in doubt, pick against Dalton. (Not that I’m in doubt, but it never hurts to have the better QB!)

  • bupalos

    It seems some folks missed the memo below about the urgent need to TANK FOR BUPALOS. Be it on your cheddary heads, thou varlets. So it looks like I’m going to have to go ahead and use some extra POTY’s. As reluctant as I am to do this, you’ve left me no choice.

    The division race is over so we’ve entered a phase where there is no objective divisional reality. Free-floating in a moral morass opens up the possibility of laying points with the filthy winged rats of Baltimore. I pee on your grave, but give the points to Texas and whatever fan they’ve pulled out of the stands to play “quarterback.” 3 Essay points plus 6 POTY points should have me back in my rightful place pronto and avert disaster in the Bay.

    • bupalos

      Regular early action picks (that I reserve the right to convert into POTY’s depending on outcomes)

      Minnesota getting 6.5 at Miami. Bridgey likes the warm Florida sun. Miami “needing it more” is not an advantage.

      Saints give 6 to the falcons. The Saints wanting it more is an advantage.

      Detroit giving 7 to The Great Chicago Dumpster Fire. OMFG you are NOT putting THAT QB up against THAT d-line. I’ll see it when I believe it and not a second sooner.

      All-play TBD.

    • Petefranklin

      That is a super sharp pick there….if you took the Texans

      • bupalos

        I’m smooth as a billiard-ball and rolling with the “Ravens” here.

  • Petefranklin

    Heeeeres JOHNNY…..
    God save the Browns,Haslems regime.
    They made you a moron, A potential super bomb!
    God save the Browns,they ain’t even a team.
    There is no future, in Clevelands dreaming.
    Don’t be told what you want,
    Don’t be told what you need,
    There’s no future,No future, No future for YOU!
    God save the Browns, We mean it man!
    We love our Browns!
    God saves!

    God save the Browns.
    Cause tickets cost money.
    And our figurehead,
    Is not what he seems!

    Oh god save history
    god save your mad parade!
    Oh lord god have mercy,
    Our games are…PAIN!

    Panthers -3

    • Petefranklin
      • Petefranklin

        4) Vikes
        5) Rams
        AP) TBD

      • no future.
        no future.
        no future.
        FOR YOU!!!!!

        • Petefranklin

          Thanks JiM-may, glad you got us a QB.

    • WE MEAN IT, MAN!

    • Petefranklin

      When theres no future , how can there be wins?
      We’re the flowers in the dust bin.
      We’re the poison in your NFL machine.
      We’re the future, You’re future!
      God save the Browns , We mean it man!
      There is no future!
      In Clevelands…Dreaming!

    • zarathustra

      Never mind the bollocks…go panthers!

    • thatsfine

      This needs to be blasted full volume on a barge going down the Cuyahoga, better yet parked within earshot of the stadium.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Love it PeteFranklin!

      You could have kept the first verse, it fits.

      God save the Queen
      A fascist regime
      They made you a moron
      Potential H-bomb

      The Browns’ Johnny Rotten and Jimmy Even Worse will relive the story

      “Jimmy and Johnny; Love Kills”

      No Future for You!


    Falcons +6
    Bengals +3
    Jets +10
    Seahawks -7.5 (all play)
    Dolphins -6.5 (essay)

    Kind of breaking my own rule here picking against the Vikings for an essay, as I host Vikings fans every Sunday at my house. This just seems like a tough spot for them. They really struggle to move the the ball and score points against teams with strong defenses. To be honest, I wish I had the heart to take Carolina -3 here, but I can’t do that. Vikings will lose this game convincingly then come home ans beat the Bears to end the season next week.

  • Arizona +7.5

    Browns +3

    Jets +10

    Houston +5.5

    Denver -3

    Essay Detroit -7 at Chicago

    Chicago is down on their luck and I think Detroit has come to town to kick them while they’re down. They players who are still on the field are making miniscule (NFL) amounts of money compared to the quarterback who will be sitting on the bench – that cannot be particularly inspiring. Whatever to do with Cutler? After our recent move to Nashville, I noticed something in his post game conferences that I had not before – his faithful Vandy hat. When a franchise is paying you that much bank and you don’t even have the decency to rep a Bears logo…well, that tells me that Cutler is coming home to the Titans and the Bears will take (or give) whatever is needed to wash their hands of this boy. Considering I’ve heard more about a player that’s not playing this week than the actual game – I’m taking Detroit to cover.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Kanicki, is it possible to switch off my 3 star pick. I currently have the Jets but not feeling great about them anymore. I want to switch over to the Bengals +3 over the Broncos. Also I’ll use this as my one week without an essay if that’s still part of this.

    • i’m feeling exactly the same way about the raiders pick.
      yep, you’re all set.

      • Dennis Hemingway

        Thanks buddy. Merry Christmas!

        • Petefranklin

          Raiders cover…don’t worry about it!

      • Petefranklin

        Raiders were on my card, till I saw them on yours,LOL when it rains it pours.

  • AmplifiedEsq

    1) Seahawks -7.5 (All Play & Essay)
    2) Memphis -1 (Yay for Monday Night Miami Bowl since I forgot college picks yesterday…)
    3) Lions -7
    4) Panthers -3
    5) Denver -3
    6) Packers -10.5

    The last time Ryan Lindley was starting games he was awful. That was a few years ago and all he has done is sat on the bench since then while the Cardinals seek other options at QB. The Cardinals defense may keep them in the game for a little, but I think there is a high chance that Lindley turns the ball over enough to get the Seahawks rolling on the scoreboard. If the wheels start to fall off the Seahawks will sense it and pour it on them from there.

  • HitTheHorns

    AP Cards +7.5
    Bengals +3
    ***ESSAY*** Bears +7
    Why would anyone pick this team? I mean Jimmy Clausen?!?!? But that’s what’s got me to this point, picking the teams with the most bizarre, controversial weeks leading up to a game. That’s why you see a lot of Redskins picks out of me (and Niners last night). Anyways, the line is up to 9 because of this public seeing the QB change and I feel getting a TD is just enough. Line will probably go even higher, because why not. This is why they call it gambling, so lets roll with it.

  • 1. Nevada (l)
    2. SALA (l)
    3. Bucs +10.5 double-digit home dog.
    4. Jets +10 double-digit home dog.
    5-AP. Cards +7.5 TD+ home dog.
    6-***. Raiders +5.5 Was surprised at the number of huge lines against home teams this week. (Was late pulling trigger on the Skins +8.) Here we have a Raiders team that’s playing good ball at home with wins over KC and SF. They’re also a better team with Latavius Murray Bills are in the playoff hunt but after playing the Browns, Broncos, and Packers and traveling to the west coast, some let down would be understandable. Raiders won’t run up the score here, but they’ll keep the Bills around 20 pts which should be enough to cover.

  • zarathustra

    WMU (L)
    Chargers (W)
    Cardinals +7.5 over Seahawks
    Vikings +6.5 over Dolphins
    Cowboys -3 over Colts
    Steelers – 3 over Chiefs***
    Another change here on my part. Hopefully it makes up for pulling off Laffy at the last minute yesterday. Too much potential bad action brewing to pin my playoff hopes on a Broncos essay.
    I’ve always been a pretty big fan of Mike Tomlin, but have to admit I ‘ve wavered a bit the past couple years when I’ve witnessed some really curious in-game decisions. You can accept that though if a coach is good enough with the locker room/culture and Tomlin is most definitely good there. Last year they had an atrocious start and finished strong and that was a good dress rehearsal for this year’s playoff push. They’ve been shaky at home, but I think that will make them that much more focused today.
    Since beating the Seahawks at home the Chiefs have lost at the raiders and drew stanton Cardinals. This is a quasi-playoff game and I will take the home with a better coach and a better qb.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Chiefs +3
    Lions -7
    Seattle -7.5
    Den -3 essay
    den has started running the ball and that can do nothing but help Peyton. Peyton has been a little shaky lately but he was sick last week and was nursing some injuries. Cin was able to dominate an offense last week with a rookie qb and 2 rookie rbs missing their pro bowl center. Peyton will be able to pick apart this defense. Oh and the starting qb for the bengals is Andy dalton. He’s terrible

  • [apologies for updating the niners win early. i thought i saw a final score in the 3rdQ.]

  • Me: on SALA for pick #2.
    I’ll summarize these piecemeal picks mañana.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts Week 17:

    South Alabama -1.5

    • DQuatts

      Colts +3
      Browns +3
      Cardinals +7.5

      Last pick and Essay coming tomorrow. Thanks!

      • DQuatts

        I’ll add Minnesota +6.5…

        • DQuatts

          Nice!!! Minnesota is +7….even better. 🙂

          • it’s vikes +6.5. we’re using the ‘current’ column on that pdf, not the ‘open’ col.

          • DQuatts

            Sounds good. Sorry I missed that…

          • DQuatts

            As a last ditch effort for a Cheddar playoff push, I am going to go with the Broncos -3 as my essay this week. Denver is in need of a bye in the playoffs and want to keep the pressure on New England next week for overall #1 seed in the AFC. The bengals can lose tonight and the AFC North will still come down to next weeks matchup vs. the Steelers. I don’t expect this week to be a let down for the bengals, I just think Denver is a better team. Yes, Cincy is a tough place to play, but NE is pretty tough as well. Denver will need to show they can win on the road and tonight is a good night to get started.

  • Petefranklin

    Fricken T mobile blows so I missed out on Air Force when I was at the stupid bowl game.
    S Alabama and the Chargers for a point each

  • clayII

    W Michigan (+1.5) / Air Force

  • p_forever

    NFL picks on Saturday feel like college picks-I like it.

    Eagles -8 redskins
    Chargers +2.5 sanfran
    Western Michigan +1.5


    Utah -3

  • squeekycleen

    Western Michigan regular
    South Alabama regular
    Rest tomorrow.

    • squeekycleen

      Rest of these:

      All play and Essay: Seahawks. Cannot remember being this burnt out from sports wagering, but I’ve been on a nine month grind and am really worn down. Hard to write or even think about these games. Even though I hate going against a backup QB, 9 pts for the home team in first place is laughable. If this was below 7, I wouldn’t even look at it, but to me they are clearly trying to get some sort of Cardinals action. Cardinals one of the worst 11-3 teams I have ever seen, particularly in light of their current QB situation. I guess I will take it, feel the enthusiasm.


  • Tim Butler

    AP: Seahawks -7.5
    Utah -3

    • Tim Butler

      POTY: PANTHERS -3 over browns
      BUCS +10.5 over packers
      falcons +6 over SAINTS
      TEXANS +5.5 over ravens

      PICK OF THE YEAR (CAR -3): The reason to make this my POTY is obvious. So obvious, that there’s a high likelihood of it all blowing up in my face, with me muttering and shaking my head around 3:45 PM saying things like “Well, I should’ve known, never bet against johnny manziel” (I refuse to call him by his moniker). But I gotta believe that nobody, not even johnny “freaking” football (oh well), can turn that scared, little (can you believe how little he looked?) boy I saw running around last week versus the bengals, into something resembling an NFL quarterback in a mere 7 days. I’m going down with the ship on this one – either I’ll be gleefully dancing as the band plays their final tune, or jumping overboard into the frigid Lake Erie water just to get it over with.

  • Concierge

    WMU +1.5
    Utah -3
    Utah State -10
    Chargers +2.5
    BGSU +3

    • Concierge

      I made a correction..forgot my all play..I put it in for seahawks..took off BGSU.

  • bupalos

    Ladies and gentlemen, as much as I hate to disturb the pleasant numbness of your somnambulant existence on these shores, a warning would like to be heard. Let the alarm go out across the waters, for Cheddar Bay is in crisis.

    It’s an identity crisis.

    For the bay woke up this morning, exhaled it’s fresh, salt-scented yawn across the waters, peered into it’s wine-dark and lobster-laden depths, and asked the deepest of all deep questions: who am I?

    Who am I?

    Am I a football picking contest? Some say. Yet if this is my core, how can it be that my most cherished participant, REKNOWNED BUPALOS, — possessed (as expected by all) of highest correct pick percentage in the entire field and likely the entire history of Cheddar Bay– tops not my lofty peaks, but meanders in the margins of relevance. How can I then be a football-picking contest?

    Am I a writing contest? Some say. And yet who again but REKNOWNED BUPALOS can be said to offer forth tightly football-related prose that cleaves the mind’s ear like nothing read before, prose that delights the innocent and virtuous and drives the guilty to babbling madness? Yea, his very coinages and verbifications fit together so elegantly and like in a nice succinct modern way with harmoniousness and general, you know…just like really apt and well polished scrumtrilescence and stuff like a quarterback…doing good at football or something. Never a half-formed or mailed-in sentence with him. Never a thought left unperfected. If HE yet wanders the dark valleys of my being, how can I then be a writing contest?

    Am I a school for moral instruction, a call to the beauty of reality and truth over childish fantasy and falsehood? Some say. And yet even here, who could be said to be dean of this school if not REKNOWNED BUPALOS? His picks and missives so patently moral, with such dazzling clarity. Such a pattern and model for the uninitiated that Plato himself blushes, droops, and creeps back into his cave, rubbing his eyes from the brain-searing light. And yet I draft this ray of light and truth at slot 21? One higher than the satanic law firm of Weeden, Quinn, and Manziel? Am I then a champion of reality? Am I even real?

    Ladies and gentlemen, you can see how this goes, and see the danger to the bay. Lost in valid reflections like these, the Bay is fully as likely to jam a spiny lobster claw through it’s own skull and end it all as to continue to soldier on in base iniquity. My shabby treatment at your hands has taken it’s toll, and the crisis is as real as the danger is, happily, avoidable. Thus now is the time for all people of good will to come together and do the right thing.


    There are as many ways to do this as there are football games to be played and deadlines to be missed. Even here I’ve given you a thorough example to be rote-copied in your mechanical way. But as you have indeed shown yourself to be creatures of habit (and mostly the lowest habits at that), we will not risk the Bay’s continued existence on your actions alone. So after much reflection I’ve decided to go ahead and use a second POTY. And if need be next week I will designate as many POTY’s as necessary to ensure that the bay is saved.

    Tank for me now, venerate me later, love me always, for I remain your dear, devoted, REKNOWNED BUPALOS.

    What’s that? Football picks? Yes, I suppose you’d like that wouldn’t you, a chance to draft behind the speeding semi truck that is my .610 picking percentage? Well I’m afraid that well has run dry for you my friend! Henceforth my picks will be revealed only after the football games have been completed, to avoid any possibility of cheating by anyone.

    • bupalos

      I have since been informed by management that this plan to reduce the chance of fraud in the Bay by posting my picks after football games instead of beforehand may bring objections from the simpleminded and morally weak, who are bound to misjudge the purity of my soul by the bad light of their rotten ones. This is the meaning I take from the knowing wink of a message I received: “Are you ?@#$ing insane?”

      I see the point and I suppose I agree, for thus was it always.

      We’ll start with a one-pointer and save the supplemental POY and rest of the picks for later; No need to tempt the copycats more than they already will be:

      I choose the Utah Destructive Mormons giving 3 to the Colorado State University Reefer Madness.

  • mo_by_dick

    Western Michigan +1.5

    • mo_by_dick

      Seahawks -7.5 (all-play)
      Ravens -5.5
      Panthers -3
      Lions -7
      Broncos -3 (Essay)

      This Broncos play epitomizes my strategy this year – for whatever that’s worth (which probably isn’t much). Not scared off by public plays or road favorites, and over-simplifying matchups according to the respective quarterbacks. The delta between JFF last week and Peyton Manning this couldn’t be much more. Denver needs to keep up the intensity, Broncos will roll.

  • UTAH -3. My roommate played football at Utah. He’s mormon. He says this is a lock. No bias whatsoever.

    WESTERN MICHIGAN +1.5. P.J. Fleck and the boys takin care of their business.

    VIKINGS +6.5. They haven’t lost a game by more than one score in nine weeks. Mike Zimmer has these fellas competing every week. I like them this week.

    SEAHAWKS -7.5. Like Eminem says: something about Russell Wilson making things spin and Rumpelstiltskin.

    CHARGERS +2.5. Niners have taken their ball and gone home at this point.

    “Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.” – Charlie Munger

    LIONS -7. I can’t believe it’s taken me this long to acknowledge my opportunity to spread Charlie Munger’s wisdom to the people of the world’s most important essay-based reality football pick em’. That’s a failure on my part. But as my man Chuck states, the only thing I know that I don’t know is how much the Lions are gonna win by at this point-because any game in which James Clausen is named a starter in the National Football League is one I want action on. The Bears have been pathetically average this season, and at times abysmal. The city is as apathetic about their play as they are about suiting up on Sundays, and it is officially winter sports season here in Chicago in this order: Blackhawks then Bulls. Then Cubs, then maybe Bears, and Sox. My man Mel Tucker unfortunately has his boxes packed, and the same may be true for Trestman and Phil Emery since they can’t seem to manage expectations-or people for that matter. Sucks too because I have friends in the scouting department and once the GM goes, so usually do many of them. However, I can’t worry about that this week. I have a playoff push to make after a few really bad weeks of picking.

  • oxr

    Last week lulled me into a false sense of not having to pick college games, but I remembered in the nick of time. The only matchup here involving teams I can even claim to have watched this season is the storied Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl and the extent of my knowledge is that Utah was ranked at one point and has lost to some decent Pac-12 teams (LOL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZU_Dk6aRfUQ) whereas Colorado State usually sucks even though this year they have triumphed over Wyoming and UC Davis. Utah -3 over Colorado State for a point, why not.

    • oxr

      I guess that worked. Now:

      All-Play Seahawks -7.5 over Cardinals – let’s try going the other way this time, what’s the worst that can happen…

      Broncos -3 over Bengals – …no whammies no whammies no whammies…
      Ravens -5.5 over Texans
      Bills -5.5 over Raiders

      Lions -7 over Bears – … this pick feels downright unethical, but perhaps we’ll all turn out to be wrong. After all, the Bears might start playing for pride, finally, at this late date. But let’s face it, this is the Jimmy Clausen Massive Favorite Pick, because Jimmy Clausen sucked so bad the last time he was on the field (regular season) that I didn’t even realize he was still in the league. The Lions are not exactly perfect but still have something for which to play, namely a home playoff game. Football Outsiders reckons the problem with Chicago has been more the defense than Cutler, which is good from this perspective. What could possibly go wrong? Apparently Brandon Marshall’s out as well, by the way. If I wasn’t saving my pick of the year for the last possible moment, and if this didn’t seem a little bit too good to be true, I’d be deploying it here – but there I go, like the Bears, outsmarting myself in public.

      • oxr

        Upon further review, the Lions may be really bad.

  • The Iron Sheik

    Utah st
    Philadelphia Eagles***
    Eagles will win today because they are flat out mad for that debacle against the Cowboys. They are known for starting out fast and finishing strong, if that doesn’t happen this afternoon against the Redskins it will be a tight game. On the other hand if they do the skins are in for a long afternoon and nasty Sanchez will be their key to victory.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Western mich +1.5
    Philly -8

  • Lucy Lawrence

    Western Michigan

    I’m a huge Peyton fan and I think Andy Dalton stinks. Nothing was said about how bad AD was against the Browns bc it was over shadowed by how bad JFF was. I think the Broncos D will sell out to stopping the run and make for a miserable day for the Bengals .

  • If my season was going to officially go up in flames it might as well have been with JFF. Sigh.

    Sad and half-hearted grab at lobster is as follows:

    Western Mich +1.5 over Air Force,

    Redskins +8 over Eagles,

    Panthers -3 over JFF,

    Cards +7.5 over Seahawks,

    Colts +3 over Cowboys, and

    Bengals +3 over Broncos for my Pick of the Week.

    I think it’s strange that nobody seems to be giving the Bengals a chance here. They have to win to stay on top of the Division and/or at least ensure a Wild Card slot while Denver doesn’t have a whole lot to play for here given the way the tiebreakers shake out (they’re not likely to catch the Pats and not likely to lose their slot to the Colts due to head-to-head results). Also, it looks like the Bengals are getting healthy for a playoff run after having it pretty bad on both sides of the ball for most of the regular season. Vincent Rey is starting to establish himself as a fine replacement for Burfict, too. If I still had my Play of the Year I’d be tempted to use it here.

    Seasons beatings to all and best wishes to all playoff contenders. I hope everyone is enjoying the Pettine hot seat talk as much as I am.

  • HitTheHorns

    San Francisco 49ers -2.5
    Western Michigan +1.5

  • chuckycrater

    BYU +1 vs. Memphis
    Eagles -8 vs. Washington
    Steelers -3 vs. Chiefs
    Colts +3 vs. Cowboys
    Broncos -3 vs. Bengals

    ALL PLAY/ESSAY: Seahawks -7.5 vs. Cardinals

    It’s a shame Arizona’s offense is falling apart at the finish line because it’s depriving us of what would have been a fantastic game. Instead, the Seahawks may shut them out or come very close. This is basically the NFC title game for Seattle because if they win out, they probably get home field in the playoffs and at that point you can almost ticket them for the Super Bowl again. You can bet the Seahawks understand this and will throw everything they have at a beleaguered Cards offense. I mean you don’t want to bet on Ryan Lindley, do you?

  • Rob

    Western Michigan +1.5

    • Rob

      Redskins +8

    • Rob

      AP: SEA -7.5

      STL -4.5

      DET -7
      I hate hate hate the popularity of this pick, but sometimes siding with Joe Public trumps backing (or not backing the opposition of) Jimmy Clausen. I mean… it’s Jimmy Clausen. Jim F’n Clausen. James of the Clausen clan of Notre Dame. One of the Clausen boys, Jimmy I think. He-who-shall-not-be-named (but if you’re talking about Jimmy Clausen, just wink twice). J-I-M-M-Y C-L-A-U-S-E-N (does the emphasis on each letter count as a single word, or is that still just two words? I may need a ruling from the Executive Committee). Because when it all comes down to it, Jimmy Clausen is not good; the Lions defense is.

    • Rob

      Dallas -3

  • Peter Markos

    DET -6.5 OVER CHI

  • trashycamaro

    1. AP: Seahawks -7.5 over Cards I really like the Cards and all they have done, their amazing defense and a resilient offense. But you can’t really back Lindley and/or Thomas, right?

    2. Essay:Broncos -3 over Andy DaltonBengals Definitely slipped the lede out there quick. As predicted by another Cheddarer earlier in the week my essay is going to center on Primetime Peyton vs. Primetime Dalton.

    After a disappointing week 2 weeks ago, where I broke a 10 week streak of hitting essays (and not much else), I finally came through last week (except for the Browns who I will not pick against), and managed to get a tiny share of the weekly.

    So what game best to continue the hot streak? Following my rules this year to 1. pick the best game and not the one that might you look the smartest and 2. avoid the traps (these rules invalidate both sides of Pats v. Jets, BTW), I ride with Primetime Manning over Primetime Dalton. (Primetime Manning is not to be confused with Playoff Manning). As for Dalton, take out about 3-4 games per year and he is actually pretty solid, if not quite good. However, these 3-4 games per year typically come in primetime.

    Honestly, even if Dalton someone finds the ability to be decent here, the Broncs only need 3, and Denver’s D can do that against normal Dalton on its own. My essays are not mine unless I throw in some Football Outsiders stats, so here we go:

    Overall: Broncos #1, Bengals #15 Raw Difference: 30%

    Defense: Broncos #3, Bengals #15 Raw Difference: 13%

    Offense: Broncos #2, Bengals #15 Raw Difference: 24%

    Special Teams: Broncos #26, Bengals #6 Raw Difference: 8%

    Broncos Pass Offense: 49.7% (1); Bengals Pass Defense: -2.9% (9)

    Broncos Rush Offense: 1.8% (8); Bengals Rush Defense: 2.8% (30)

    Bengals Pass Offense: 8.5% (18); Broncos Pass Defense: -6.3% (5)

    Bengals Rush Offense: -2.2% (13); Broncos Rush Defense -27.2% (2)

    The path to victory by these numbers for the Bengals is for their special teams to be dominant and score multiple times. With a 3 point spread, take what Santa gave you for being good this year. (And if you were naughty, Santa is still nice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WQl0K_qSsE)

    3. College:SoAlabama -3 over BGSU

    4.Chargers +2.5 over 49ers Concerned about Rivers’ back, otherwise this would the essay pick but for the Broncos only laying 3.

    5.Lions -7 over Bears So, can I always bet against Jimmy Clausen when he is going against the #2 defense in the league?

    6. Ravens -5.5 over Texans When you can bet against 4th string QBs, you probably should.

  • Shoot 11am start. I’ll take Nevada for a point. Was going to craft an essay and alert everyone to our 2015 QB controversy — Jay Cutler vs Cody Fajardo… but too slow.

  • Concierge

    Nevada -1 Essay
    I know that ULL is basically playing a home game today and that they are 3-0 in bowl games the last three years. I’m sorry. The sun belt is a shitty conference. I trust the better team from the better conference in this one. Nevada has played Boise and Arizona this year and hung with both. They are the better team. Also nevada’s defense can step up to the challenge when need be. Also wolf pack is 4-0 last 4 games in december and also 6-1 ATS the last 7 games on turf.
    Go wolf pack.

  • zarathustra

    I hate to do this, but I just have to change a pick. I woke up in a cold sweat last night terrified by thr thought of picking against my beloved Nevada wolf pack. Please remove my one-pointer on Laffy. I will replace it later.
    fwiw I still like Laffy in the first half. Love actually. Like poty level if that were possible. I expect to then take Nevada 2nd half.

    • zarathustra

      If anybody actually reads my semi-psychotic ramblings here let me say as someone who has watched just about every Nevada game this year that you want to load up on second half -2.5. This is the script for just about every damn game they’ve played this year–start out flat, but once they get going there is no stopping them.

      • zarathustra


  • thatsfine

    ULL +1
    AFA -1.5
    BYU +1
    SALA -3
    USU -10 – Essay
    The Aggies had a tough end to the season, taking a beating on the road at the hands of Boise State. Overall, they were a solid team in an underrated MWC. USU managed to go 9-4 despite losing 3 starting QBs. They pulled this off mostly because of a tough, stingy defense, ranked 21st nationally in points allowed. They run a balanced offense with competent, perhaps unspectacular QB play (4th stringer Kent Myers, 4-1 as a starter, 5 TD/2 INT). UTEP was vastly improved from 2-10 last year to 7-5 this year, including a 5-2 run to finish the season. However, they play in Conference USA, which was even weaker than usual. The Miners best win was over 6-6 MTSU, They didn’t play Marshall and were blown apart by LaTech. Their offensive strength is running the ball – nationally ranked 33rd at 212 ypg. Unfortunately, the Aggies are especially good at stopping the run, giving up only 121 ypg. That’s the key matchup here, and I think the Aggies shut down the Miners.
    Seahawks -7.5

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Cardinals +7.5
    Nevada -3
    Utah -4.5
    Bills -5.5
    Giants +4.5
    Patriots -10 (Essay)

    Two bitter football rivals: one headed for a deep playoff run, and another headed for rebulding and a new coach. With the Jets at home, it’s tempting to think they’ll play their you know whats off for Rex Ryan, by all accounts, a players’ coach. A noble emotion, however execution is another matter entirely. I expect the game to be a virtual home game for the Pats since the Jets fan base can be fickle, and has plenty of other stuff to do with the pagan gift-giving ritual looming next week – I suspect many tickets have gone to StubHub to raise cash for presents. If history is any guide, the Pats will romp, and the Jets might get some points back in the second half long after the game was competitive.

  • shoseph

    Utah State -10 vs.UTEP
    Utah -3 vs. Colorado St.
    Vikings +6.5 vs. Dolphins
    Broncos -3 vs. Bengals
    AP: Seahawks -7.5 vs. Cardinals
    Essay: Lions -7 vs. Bears

    It’s all-Utah bowl picks for me this weekend, but the essay here is on the best pick of the week: Detroit over Chicago. Cutler’s been benched, Trestman is on the way out, and the team seems to just want this season to be over already. Matt Forte has been the only one who seems to be still in it, as though he can’t not play hard, but still when it comes down to it: it’s Jimmy Clausen time. In the meantime, Detroit has been on a three-game winning streak, including a pretty decent win over the Bears. This team isn’t going to win the Superbowl (well, probably not), and probably not win their last game of the regular season against the Packers, but I have a pretty good feeling they’re going to roll over the Bears.

  • FTCMikeD

    Only hope for some $ this year is a lobsterfest, so here goes nothing.
    ULL +1 over Nevada in New Orleans Bowl – ULL practically a home game
    Packers -10.5 over @Bucs – Rodgers and co bounce back this week
    Lions -7 over @Bears – Bears are checked out; Trestman done
    Colts +3 over @Cowboys – Demarco Murray’s hand and ‘Boys aren’t as strong at home
    AP: Seahawks -7.5 over @Cardinals – waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Cards
    Primetime Peyton over Andy Dalton all day. Don’t bet against Peyton in a night game is one of the cardinal rules of sports betting. Andy Dalton doesn’t have that rule, in fact there might be a rule about betting against him in primetime or in playoff games. The Denver Defense is going to eat him alive. Peyton doesn’t play so well in games under 40 degrees, so I checked the weather for Monday – 49 for the high, 44 for the low, so it won’t be too cold for him. Plus, it seems as if their running game has been improving as the season has gone on. I also think there could be a bit of a letdown factor going against the Bengals this week, having gotten their revenge last week against our poor Brownies. They won’t have what it takes against a strong Broncos squad. Broncos to cover the spread of -3.

  • Capitalgg

    Bowl season is tough, what with determining motivations and relative conference strengths. Of course, I like my odds playing meaningless college football games rather than cast my lot with NFL randomness.

    All-play: Seahawks -7.5 @ Cardinals: Seattle’s D is playing at too high a level right now against the Cards #3 QB. Think Hawks cover this number, but just barely.
    1. Utah -3 v. Colorado St.: Pac-12 > MWC. Oh and Colo St’s coach just left for sunny Florida. Nice year, Rams, but this is a Ute party.
    2. Memphis -1 v. BYU: Statement opportunity for Justin Fuente’s club. BYU struggled down the stretch after losing their play-making QB.
    3. UL-Lafayette +1 v. Nevada: Virtual home game for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Terrance Broadway is the best player in this game.
    4. Lions -7 @ Bears: Bears a raging dumpster fire where the players should quit on the coach. Lions playing for a division title. Oh and Jimmy Clausen v. the N. Suh led Detroit D-line. Detriot’s D might cover this by itself.

    Is South Alabama the best .500 team in the country? Well, they have 6 losses and it’s hard to argue that they aren’t all quality losses. They have losses to SEC teams in Mississippi St. and South Carolina as well as 7-5 Navy. In conference they’ve lost to 9-3 Georgia Southern, 8-4 Louisiana-Lafayette and 7-5 Arkansas St. Their opponent, Bowling Green has largely disappointed since QB Matt Johnson went down. Yes, they won the MAC East, they scuffled down the stretch losing to Toledo and getting blown out by both Ball St., and Northern Illinois. With the Camelia Bowl being a virtual home game for the better team, I’ll ride South Alabama -3 over Bowling Green.

    Other plays:
    Broncos -3 @ Bengals: Almost played this as #4. Stoppable force (Bengals in prime time) vs. Moveable Object (Peyton in the cold)! Something has to happen, so I’ll ride with Peyton Manning.
    Falcons +6 @ Saints
    Ravens -5.5 @ Texans

  • jdoepke

    .500 weeks right now won’t get it done. At least I still have POTY in my pocket. Don’t see anything worthy this week but got my eye on a couple bowl games next weekend. No doubt about it, I need help and probably need to hit POTY and essays next 2 weeks and a #LOBSTERFEST somewhere wouldn’t be bad either. Here we go…

    UL Lafayette +1
    Memphis -1
    Seahawks – 7.5 (AP)
    Colts +3
    Texans +5.5

    Raiders +5.5 (Essay)
    Last week I hit on Buffalo as my essay, this week I’m on the other side. Coming off a huge win vs. Packers and traveling to the west coast to face a shitty team. Public all over Buffalo so I will grab the 5.5 and be on my way. Raiders 19 Bills 17.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Jets +10 over Patriots ***
    Cardinals +7.5 over Seahawks (All play)
    Colts +3 over Cowboys
    Ravens -5 over Texans
    Air Force -1.5 over Western Michigan
    Nevada -1 over UL-Lafayette

    *** Rex Ryan is essentially coaching for his next job and he always has given the Pats a tough match.
    They covered a 10 point spread at New England earlier in the season and almost won out right. Even though New England’s offense has been on a roll lately, I think the Jets defense can slow them enough to keep this under 10 points. While the Jets have a poor record, they consistently fight and haven’t laid down all season. Even Rex Ryan said they have zero issues except when it comes to winning games (obviously a big deal but that hasn’t kept them from being out of games recently.)

  • Dave Borcas

    South Alabama -3
    Air Force -1.5
    Ravens -5.5
    Broncos -3
    Seahawks -7.5 (all play)
    Lions -7 (essay)
    Week 16 of the NFL season and the Detroit Lions are in play for a home field playoff game. Cleveland, there is hope for us. Lets go through the list of reasons why the Lions should win, and cover this game.
    1) The Bears coach sucks and will soon be shipped back to Canada where he can tell stories to wanna be NFL players about when he was on the big stage.
    2) The QB that the Bears invested 100+ million dollars in is a quitter and would be shipped out of town if anyone would take him.
    3)The Bears best player, Bandon Marshall is done for the season.
    4) The defense is soooooo bad it doesn’t need any explanation
    5) Jimmy Clausen will be starting at QB in an effort to save Trestmans job and help Jay Cutler. Now that is funny.
    You could argue that the Bears will have home field advantage, but I’m not sure the fans will be in a very supportive mood of the Bears.
    I would like to wish a Merry Merry Christmas to all and enjoy the bowl season!


    1) La Laff +1
    2) SEA +7.5 (all play)

    • CLEVTA

      3) ATL +6
      4) MINN +6.5 (essay)- Vikes have been spunky all year under my guy Teddy B. Those small hands haven’t hurt him yet this season and he gets to come home to Miami to play in front of friends and family. Dolphins are ready to pack up and go home. They haven’t been able to stop the run at all lately and have had a ton of injuries at LB. In the last 5 weeks miami ranks dead last in run defense according to PFF.
      5) TB +10.5
      6) Jets +10

  • technivore

    Seahawks -7.5 over CARDINALS (AP)
    Chargers +2.5 over 49ERS
    ULL +1 over Nevada
    Lions -7 over BEARS
    Chiefs +3 over STEELERS

    Broncos -3 over BENGALS
    This is going to be my most pathetic essay of the year but I’m playing for pride at this point and real life is intruding in a big way. I just think this comes down to the Bengals being too up and down of a team to rely on in consecutive weeks, and they have been outscored 67-20 in their two night games this year. Also they’ve been blown out by Browns, Colts and Steelers, and Denver’s only bad loss on the season was to a terrific Rams team. It’s just unimaginable to me that the Bengals run away with this one, so if it comes down to Peyton Manning only laying 3 to Andy Dalton on national tv, I’ll take that every time.

  • cwonder23

    UL-Lafayette +3
    Vikings +7
    Saints -6
    Jets +10
    All Play: Cardinals +7.5
    Essay: Lions -6.5
    Two words. Jimmy Clausen. You know your team is a dumpster fire when you bench the highest paid offensive player in the NFL for a guy who hasn’t seen the field in a long time. Oh hey Jimmy, go ahead and go out there. Oh, what’s that? Yes, you’re playing one of the toughest defenses in the league. I expect Jimmy to be on his ass most of the game. This team is growing tired of Trestman and I don’t see them going out and playing hard for a guy who probably won’t be there next year. Lions have a lot more to play for and the Bears just seem disinterested. I like the Lions BIG in this game. Happy Holidays!

    • cwonder23

      Didn’t look at the “current” column, but you know what I mean….

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Bowling Green

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      You guys saw the Browns midget last week, right? Any, any reason at all it will be different this week? Panthers need the game, Newton back, Jon Stewart running all over what the Browns call a defense? I mean, Manziel has to be better. Has to be. That doesn’t mean he’ll be good. Carolina (and under) all the way.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    ****Bowling Green +3 over Out of South Alabama come a country boy**** Essay
    You heard it here first kids. In the long awaited match-up watched by degenerate gamblers only, the biggest game since Absorbine Jr College played Dilapidated State University, Bowling Green will beat South Alabama!
    MACtion beats The Sun Belt, an easy pick here. South Alabama started the season slowly and they have tapered off from there. They are also playing in their first bowl game, so this game shall mean far more to them than it does to Bowling Green, that is always a bad sign. It is also almost a home game for South Alabama, adding to the first bowl game pressure as well.
    Bowling Green, much like South Alabama, finished the season with a whimper, they are also still staggering from the ignominy of the MAC Smackdown they received from Northern Illinois in the championship game, but they have had their successes and failures, this bowl game will not make them nervous. Bowling Green’s defense sucked all year, South Alabama’s defense sucked all year too, however with the small exception of a scoring burst in a last game loss to the perennial powerhouse and defensive juggernaut, Navy, (Navy gave up points at somewhere near a 40+ clip all year), South Alabama’s anemic offense was just as bad as their defense. How did they win 6 games?
    The smart kids are picking South Alabama because of their “NFL Prospect”, “Prototype Franchise Quarterback”, Brandon Bridge. Bridge is solid muscle, 7′ 6″ tall, he weighs 350#’s, and he blazes through the 40 yard dash in 4.1 seconds. So What?? His passes wobble more and have far less accuracy than an Australian punter. He has no chance at the NFL, well…. unless the Browns take him in the first round.
    Chargers + 2.5 over 49ers
    BYU +1 over Memphis
    Sons of Horseface -3 over Bungles
    Cards +7.5 over Seattle
    Texans +5.5 over Baltimore

  • GRRustlers

    Week 17 Picks

    AP – Seattle (-7.5) over Arizona – I’m picturing Ryan Lindley running around trying to hide behind the ref while yelling “blow the whistle” Yes. I may have just watched Necessary Roughness. This will probably be a 15 yard penalty on Seattle now but I still think they roll.

    Utah (-3) over CSU – Reads @ChuckKoz:disqus essay. Nods in agreement.

    Bowl Season is code for bet against the MAC so…

    AFA (-1.5) over WMU
    USA (-3) over BGSU

    Green Bay (-10.5) over Tampa Bay – Because Rodgers will bounce back in a huge way and Tampa can’t afford a win.

    Essay Pick

    Playing out the string here in and reeling from two brutal essay defeats in a row it was time for me to scan the board and look for something stupid to believe in this week.

    I once stated that when Jimmy Clausen was drafted his next stop was Canton. I also lost my mind a few years ago when Russell Wilson continued to free fall in the draft. You win some and you lose some.

    I also love Jay Cutler. I understand the baggage but I just don’t care.

    This is really a dick move by the Bears. A Cutler injury would truly screw the Bears from a money point of view and I believe that was their sole reason for pulling the plug this week. The Lions defense is going to kill Jimmy this weekend. Get ready David Fales. Call your parents because you may be on TV this weekend.

    On a side note there was a guy I work with talking about how happy he was with the Cutler benching because Forte will now get a ton of carries to protect Jimmy and since he has his championship game for fantasy football this is a good thing. How in the F is it possible that every single person who plays fantasy football is in a championship game this weekend? Either there are a metric shit ton of 2 person leagues or a whole bunch of damn liars. Most of you were done before the Jets were. Anyway…now you know why no one at my employer asks me to play fantasy football anymore.

    Lions (-7) over Bears

  • HitTheHorns

    Tennessee Titans +3 for one cheddar, and may be back later to make this an essay.

    78% of the public is on Jax. 78%! On Jacksonville?!? Not many reasons to think Tennessee can compete: last win for them was on 10/12 (against Jacksonville) in a 16-14 squeaker. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four. Shonn Green is a guy that gets playing time on their football team. They also just lost at home to the dreadful Jets. Jacksonville, meanwhile, have covered 2 of 3 and just played Baltimore tight. Is there really enough evidence for it to be assumed this is a slam dunk for Jacksonville?

    • swig

      This was the major factor that made me hesitant to take the Jags. But, this year fading the public has not worked out in my favor (in pick every game format).

      Hear’s to something absurd happening tonight, instead of a 4-2 field goal kicking contest.

  • Nick

    Essay: Titans +3 vs Jags

    When two 2 win teams are facing off in prime time in week 16, I must make it my essay play in this Thursday night craptactular. Poor Tennessee is so far down the quarterback rabbit hole that they have signed trick shot savant Alex Tanney this week.

    On the surface, the Jags front 7 will look to dominate the Titans weak run game (last 100 yd game was week 5), and sack the quarterback (Tennessee gives up a lot of sacks). They are good at doing this and should lead the Jags to victory.

    However, the real story here is Charlie Whitehurst. Dude has been in the league 8 years never playing a meaningful snap until this year with Tennessee. He rode pine in San Diego for 6 seasons making the playoffs and making dough, and not getting his body beaten to a pulp. He was on target to cash out and coach HS football and play golf every damn day. Instead, he followed Wisenhunt to Tennessee and proved to himself he could be a legitimate NFL quarterback. He’s had an 89.1 Quarterback rating this year, started 3 games and is 1-2 with 5 TD passes. Charlie will teach young Bortles a thing or two about life tonight.

    Seahawks -7.5 vs Cards
    Rams -4.5 vs Giants
    Ravens -5.5 vs Texans
    Steelers -3 vs Cheifs
    Utah -3 vs CSU

  • swig

    We are back to picking one College game? If so
    BG +3

    AP: CARDINALS +7.5 o Seahawks, big NFL line for an AP
    JAGUARS -3 o Titans
    Chiefs +3 o STEELERS
    BEARS +7 o Lions
    BUCCANEARS +10.5 o Packers

    • swig

      Please cancel the BEARS pick knowing Cutler is benched (that feels absurd to type).

      New Pick:
      JETS o Patriots

      ***ESSAY*** Jags
      I can not believe I am doing this, but I am taking the 2-11 team giving points at home. The Jags offense is atrocious, while the Titans offense had mearly been bad, but I believe it is trending down. The Titans defense has been bad, while the Jags defense has been average. The Titans seem to have given up on the season, while the Jags seem to play hard through the losses. As much as I know I should not watch this game tonight, I know it will be on my TV, so might as well root for something.

  • zarathustra

    Cardinals +7.5 over Seahawks (all-play)
    Laffy +1 over Nevada
    WMU +1.5 over Air Force
    Broncos -3 over Bengals
    Vikings +6.5 over Dolphins
    Chargers +2.5 over 49ers

    I will probably essay Laffy or Broncos, but for now let’s call it Broncos and I will be back with an essay likely to be one of several that includes the words Andy Dalton and prime time.

  • HitTheHorns

    Mike – use “current lines” column, correct?

  • ChuckKoz

    Lions -7 (at Bears)
    Saints -6 (vs Falcons)
    Chiefs +3 (at Steelers)
    Cowboys -3 (vs Colts)
    AP: Cardinals +7.5 (vs Seahawks)
    Essay: Utah -3 (vs CSU)

    Might be my last chance to take a Pac 12 school as I limp towards the finish line. Well, Utah joins me limping to the finish line after losing 3 of 5 and giving up 34 points in their finale to Colorado but we both are thriving for a strong finish. Utah has had too good of a season overall to let the wheels fall off. It makes sense they struggled after a while with the rigors of the Pac 12, especially in that late stretch where they played USC/@ASU/ORE/@STAN/ARIZONA. But now they get to play an inferior opponent in Colorado State who threw away a chance at a major bowl by losing to Air Force. Colorado State’ signature win is Boise and/or Colorado. Sorry, but that is no UCLA/USC/Stanford. Lastly, Utah’s coach Whittingham is 6-1 in bowl games at Utah, so he’ll have them ready.

    • FTCMikeD

      CSU lost to Boise this year. More oomph for your essay I suppose.

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