#CheddarBay wk 11, Bucks at Sparty plus #MACTION.

Jack-Conklin

Joey Bosa figures to have his toughest test against 6-6/330, last year Freshman All America, didn’t give up a sack in 2013, Jack Conklin.  (Click for story.)


NOTICE:  WEEKLY PAYOUTS START THIS WEEK!!  

Payout to be $180 to the top weekly point-getter this week and through the end of the season.  In case of ties, the kitty will be split.


All-play line is OSU +3 at MSU.

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This week’s late lines are:
SALA at ArkSt
Hawaii at ColoSt
Marshall at USM
Cowboys at Jags

Will try to get these lines updated by Friday evening.


Cheddar thread opening early this week because there’s a lot going on.  Browns-Bengals Thursday.  No brainer all-play with OSU at MSU.  The lines for those and all other games will be posted here Wednesday morning.

But of immediate import:  Tuesday and Wednesday MACtion — four games in all.  Here are the the Cheddar lines.

BGSU +6.5 at Akron (Tues 8PM ESPN2)
Toledo -13.5 at Kent (Tues 8PM ESPNU)
UB +3.5 at Ohio (Wed 8PM ESPNU)
NIU -3 at BallU (Wed 8PM ESPN2)


What now Technivore?  Snickers and utensils, of course.

What now Technivore? Snickers and utensils, of course.

Special atta boy to Technivore for hanging in all year and breaking through with a LOBSTERFEST last week.  Of special note was the technique employed:

FYI I was NOT JOKING about the Costanza thing.  I honestly, literally did in fact make my 6 picks, then take the other side of every single one.  So hey, great that worked, but now what?!?

If you’re not familiar with the Costanza Method..1

Alright back with more later.


Vintage Dalton.

So much to talk about from last night.  Damn is Andy Dalton horrible.  Cincy is shackled to a corpse.

Don’t know where to file this but file this we must.

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  1. Interesting trivia:  Victoria is played by Michelle Pfieffer’s little sister, Dedee. [back]
  • actovegin1armstrong

    It is Tuesday 11/11/2014 and the Browns are in First Place!

  • this week’s picks.

  • Tim Butler

    Just a heads up that none of my picks are on the official picks page. I made them 5 days ago, they can be found below.

  • bupalos

    Kanick I hope you get a chance to watch Carr’s latest aggressively bad outing. Complete with last-second garbage TD drive to produce most of his (still bad) stats, and a couple more brain-flashes in tight pockets creating turnovers. Now featuring the lowest y/a in the NFL!

    Poor man’s Weeden.

    • mgbode

      He reminds me more of Brady Quinn.

      • did you miss the raiders game recently played in first energy stadium? paraphrasing lucille bluth: i dont understand your basis for this comparison and i shouldnt-but-will respond to it.

        • bupalos

          Was that the game where he hooked up with a garbage time TD with 17 seconds left? Or the one with 1:02 left? Or the one with :43 left? Or the one with 1:41 left? Or….

          • mind is blown.
            you must double down or hush.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Bilgewater or Carr? Is that your point of contention gentlemen?
            What more important things would help to cool the angst and anger of this heated debate?
            Would you rather have Mario Mendoza, or Bob Uecker at bat in the ninth inning, down by one run with a runner on 2nd and two outs?
            Should we really call The Mendoza Line The Uecker Line?
            How many receivers can dance on the head of a bong?
            If 42 is the answer, what is the question?

            If I may weigh in on your squabble, Carr is better, but Weeden has more talent than either one. What if he was Derek Manning and playing for the 1998 Indianapolis Clots?

          • gee whiz.

            down 9-6 late in 3rd qtr, rookie qb leads 12 plays 71 yds drive versus playoff juggernaut while 70,000 in FE Stadium hold breath. collective exhale heard in stadium when rookie qb’s running back fumbles leading directly to quick hit four play browns touchdown.

            i know you weren’t there, maybe you should watch on tv though.

        • mgbode

          Yes, Carr was terrible. Wretchedly awful QB play that we should be smart enough to see past. He looked poised in the pocket and threw a pretty ball. But, it was all to meaningless ends as he threw short of the sticks on 3rd downs, and never threatened to push the ball deep.

          Honestly, the fascination by many on Carr this year has me baffled. If he was our QB, then I’d be horribly worried.

          Brown’s Game:
          34/54 328yds 6.1YPA 1TD 0INT 4sacks

          So, overall stats don’t look terrible, but obviously not great. Then, you dig a little deeper and realize that 85yds and the TD came with the Browns playing prevent on their last drive to kill the remaining clock while Oakland was down 6-23. And, he was still throwing the ball poorly for incompletions on that last drive.

          Before the last drive:
          27/39 243yds 6.23YPA 0TD 0INT, 3-sacks

          Last drive:
          7/15 85yds 5.66YPA 1TD 0INT, 1-sack

          (85yards is due to a 2yard run and 7yards loss on a sack. So, 80yard drive, but 85 passing yards)

          • let me be clear on this whole thing: bup has been steadfast on the bridgewater train. even in the face of pedestrian final season, meh measurables, and horrendous pro day, bup thinks he’s a top 10 pick. i say different.

            i do think carr is better than bridgewater. much better. but garoppolo was my horse in this race to the extent i had one.

            to me, carr’s performance this year has been obviously so much better than bridgewater that i’ve consciously bitten my tongue with i-told-you-so’s. so bup’s bizarre chirping in this thread truly caught me off guard because i find it so absurd.

            i would think that it hardly needs to have a case built for it being so self-evident, but i guess it does — so for you and bup: note the comparative competition. carr has faced seven consecutive playoff contenders: broncos, seahawks, browns, cards, chargers, dolphins, pats. endured coaching change, throwing to two waived WRs, 6th rd TE and james jones. bridgewater has faced skins, bucs, bills, lions, falcons, saints with five ints in the two games against teams above .500. he throws to greg jennings and cordarrelle patterson and sets up behind matt kalil with norv turner as his OC.

            with all this, carr is playing better. watch the film. watch the huddle.

            i would not characterize my objective assessments of carr’s strong performance as a rookie on a winless team in the midst of a coaching change and possible franchise move ‘fascination.’ but appreciation? yes. unequivocally willing to state a preference for carr over bridgewater? 100%.

          • mgbode

            who mentioned Bridgewater?

            I honestly have not watched a full Teddy Ballgame set yet, so I cannot comment. Yes, pre-draft I had Bridgewater as the top QB, but also noted his limitations and had some concerns. None of that means anything now that there is NFL film though. I just haven’t seen it.

            My problem with your comment really though is that it sounds so much like a Brown’s fan from the past several years. So many excuses for why Carr couldn’t lead Oakland to anything meaningful or why he was still throwing incompletions in the midst of prevent defense in those final minutes (needing 2 4th down conversions).
            Carr isn’t a good QB. Maybe he becomes one, but he isn’t a good QB.

            I don’t know how that stacks up to the other rookie QBs because we haven’t seen JFF or Jimmy-G and I haven’t seen Teddy (though Bortles looks even worse), but I am basing Carr off being a capable NFL QB and past QBs I have seen fail and he seems to have more in line with those guys than the QBs who have succeeded.

          • the whole context of the conversation is carr vs bridgewater.

            but holy christ: rookie qb. winless team. tough division. dennis allen. kenbrell thompkins. tony sparano. denarius moore. mychal rivera. menelik watson. what do you want from him? why are you pissing on this guy?

            i fail to see any analogies with a mentally-soft slow-footed 30 yr old rookie. colt mccoy? you do know carr has a better arm right,, just slightly better? and where on earth did the brady quinn comparision come from? is it that they’re both handsome and white? i mean bode… seriously, has your account been hacked?

            please make some sort of wager offer if you truly think derek carr is another brady quinn because i’ll be happy to take your bet.

          • mgbode

            apologies for not knowing that you and bup had an ongoing Carr v. Bridgewater topic going. I see the other part of this thread has bup responding more along those lines.

            and, I have not mentioned Weeden’s name alongside Carr. That is merely from bup.

            I did mention Colt in the post-game WFNY thread. Carr’s season is much along the same lines as Colt’s first year under Pat Shurmur right down to the lack of offensive weapons, new system/staff, and lack of any offensive threat. and, he similarly doesn’t take chances downfield and doesn’t score points except in garbage time or help his team win games.

            ’11 Colt McCoy through 9 games
            58.81% 10-TD 6-INT 5.92YPA 220yds/game 78.2QBrating
            3-6 record

            ’14 Derek Carr through 9 games
            61% 13-TD 9-INT 5.6YPA 211yds/game 78.3QBrating
            0-9 record

            Do you not see the similarities between these guys? The YPA is really the most appalling thing. You aren’t winning the games anyway, at least attempt to freaking make the defense think about the long-ball

      • bupalos

        I get a whif of Quinn with his choir-boy act and the way he mugs for cameras and stat-pads in garbage time. But the arm is there. Give him that.

        • mgbode

          Quinn has an arm as well and could throw a pretty deep ball. It just ended up 10yds out of bounds. Carr doesn’t quite have that problem, but he has had the same issue with almost always focusing in on the checkdown rather than looking to gamble and open things up. That is why he reminds me of Quinn.

    • i strongly doubt a majority of raiders fans would trade carr for bridgewater and i suspect most vikes fans would rather have carr than carny-hands.

      happy to double down on this bet bup. just say when.

      • bupalos

        I don’t know what size carrs hands are but I think they must be very smooth since he pretty much drops the ball when anyone threatens to breathe on him. And yet his brain is smoother still.
        I’m pretty sure we’ll be zeroing out since we made it too macro, but I feel 10000% sure this guy will be y/a poison and a garbage time hero in perpetuity. I agree he’s got a lot of raider fans and others ignoring his terrible performance and freakouts because his ball is pretty, but hey we wanted to ride with weeden for almost two years.

        • so youre saying carr had bad games with a winless team against richard sherman and aqib talib?

          .. ok.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Eagles -6 (essay)
    I know, I know, Mark Sanchez. But, I trust Chip Kelly enough to take the Eagles here. I can’t remember a season where there have been more blowouts in the big national TV games, and maybe that trend could continue tonight. Something just seems off with the Panthers this year, and without a ton of weapons at Cam’s disposal, I don’t think they get things going in the right direction tonight. Chip is going to outcoach Rivera and keep the Panthers defense on their heels. Big night from Shady and Sproles chips in with a few big gains.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Does anyone know what that odd term “First Place” means? I have never heard it before.

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    What’s a Virgin Lobsterita, marred only by a push? ‘Cause that’s what I’m in line for this week….

    I’d reckon an Admiral’s Feast award is harder to attain than Lobsterfest.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      A Virgin Lobsterita with a push is the Cheddar Bay equivalent of an inflatable special friend.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Arizona -7 for my last pick

  • bupalos

    Jets +5. Mostly off hope, but I think Ryan can maybe create some confusion for Rothlisberger. He’s been mostly feasting on garbage.

    Lions -3. I think Tannehill’s overperformance comes to an end with that D-line in his face.

    Really struggling to find the essay, but I guess it’s going to be Bills +2. Those guys seem to have some kind of mojo going, and after all the sturm und drang about the franchise sale I think the fans are going to be juiced. There is some positive matchup stuff too, KC really needs to run but Buffalo’s D there is legit, and Orton is the kind of QB that I think matches up pretty well against KC’s secondary. In any event, this seems like another one that’s fairly certain to be close, so there’s nothing wrong with home points here. And despite our position holding their #1 pick, there really isn’t a more similar franchise to the Browns than Buffalo, so this has at least a faint CMFB echo that keeps my metabolic system in ballance.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Good call on the J E T S!

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. AP MSU (L)
    2. Duke (W)
    3. Rice (L)
    4. Auburn (L)
    5. SanFran
    6. Pittsburgh

    I’m going against the grain and taking Big Ben and the Steelers as my essay. Am I nervous that they are on the road and everyone and their mother is on the jets..yes! However I’m going with my gut and taking the hot hand against what I believe to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. We are all aware of Big Ben’s stats from the last two games and until he proves to me otherwise I’m a believer. He has legit receivers and their ability to score has been a winning formula especially with a beat up defense.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Bucs over Falcons. Last time we saw this matchup I think it was 145-3 at the half. Was it worse? Maybe. Make no mistake the Bucs are bad. Not sure if the Falcons are worse, however, and given they probably had slightly loftier goals heading into this season, it would not surprise me one bit if they have quit on it. With two bad teams with little meaningful to play for, I will back the one that got shellacked on national television in the last meeting. Bucs for the essay.

    Other regulars:
    Rams
    Raiders
    Bills

  • HitTheHorns

    Essay: Jets +5 – I base most of my picks on buy low, sell high, and this game screams it. The Jets have burned me the last few weeks, so I guess I’ll go down with the ship. I can see this game ending within a FG, one way or another. Pittsburgh hasn’t played on the road in a month and I don’t understand why this line isn’t at least a TD, so I’m putting my trust in Vegas for setting it so low. Also getting 5 when it’s currently at 3.5 is a bit reassuring.

    • Petefranklin

      It’s “too sharp of a side” to be a sharp side IMO…G.L.

      • CLEVTA

        what?

        • Petefranklin

          I think everyone who really bets knew the Steelers were in a terrible spot. So going against the grain isn’t really going against the grain.

    • Petefranklin

      I guess the Jets were the only saving grace to keep the books from getting absolutely pounded this week. Killed a lot of parlays with that one. Most every other public side cashed, including the Hawks Broncos and cards. The sharp money lost with the Raiders, kind of the same scenario as the Jets. I prefer to play teams that have shown something, anything at all in the big dog role. What shouid have put me on the Jets was that it was B2B home games for them and they out gained KC the week before. Oh well, I’d rather lose winnings by not betting the game at all than to lose with a team that shits their pants yet again like they have most every week

  • Petefranklin

    Pick 5) ravens…I have to get a cheddar point out of them some time don’t I?
    Pick 6) niners…teams that were 10+ point favorites and lost outright are something like 12-2 if they are dogs the next week

    • Petefranklin

      Kill the ravens pick…a real turd head is on them
      pick 5) Giants +9.5

      • Petefranklin

        I mean the Packers -7,for pick 5) sorry

        • Petefranklin

          I just don’t know what the hell to do this week I guess.

          • ravens-niners changed to packers-niners? correct?

          • Petefranklin

            Sorry about that, I’ll try to wait next week.

          • Petefranklin

            After being somewhat “awake” this week for Chad Millman’s onslaught of total BULLSHIT I guess my head was still spinning when I made my last two picks. Cowherd is too good for that crap, Millman just lies about what he thinks the wise guys are doing. The prediction machine guy is all right though, I wish he was on every week instead of that little ball of smarm.

      • you should be the covers forum handshake guy. (shoot, it doesnt work here.) let’s try this way.

        • we also need a cheers guy and then this forum is complete.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Falcons -1.5

  • CLEinMPLS

    49ers +5
    Steelers -5
    Lions -3

  • Andy Rhode

    Tweeted OSU +3 yesterday.

  • clayII

    tOSU (+3) / sparty

    • clayII

      Utah (+9.5) / Oregon
      SJSU (-1) / Fresno St

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts Week 11:

    Ohio State +3. Emotional pick 🙂

    Big on NFL tomorrow!

    • DQuatts

      Dolphins +3
      Falcons -1.5
      Jets +5
      Broncos -11.5***
      Packers -7

      ***Living in Denver has me jumping on the Broncos here. Sure, this is a rivalry game and sure the raiders are improving every week, but that doesn’t mean this game should be close in any way. Yes, a very difficult travel schedule for Denver coming from East Coast to West Coast, but I am sure they will be ready. I am 100% certain Manning will be ready, and I am confident that the defense is ready for a little redemption after last Sunday at NE. I think this is a game that can remind the NFL public how good Denver is and how far away Oakland is from becoming a contender. A hostile crowd for a second straight week should provide a chance for this team to continue to come together. I expect a big game from Von Miller and DWare on the outsides of the defensive line. Broncos get back to business.

      • DQuatts

        Please remove the Packers -7 and replace it with Bears +7.

  • for squeaky

    Stuck at work. Please put ul-monroe as a regular and Michigan St as the all play. Thanks

  • squeekycleen

    Already emailed these in:

    All play: Michigan St.
    Regular play: UL-Monroe

    Rest tomorrow.

    Good luck everyone.

  • oxr

    All-Play Michigan State -3 over Ohio State, because for some reason I thought the line was -3.5 until about a minute ago.

    • oxr

      Eagles -6 over Panthers – oh god I’m picking Mark Sanchez aren’t I, why am I doing this
      Ravens -9.5 over Titans
      Packers -7 over Bears
      Broncos -11.5 over Raiders – and this a week after saying I don’t like to pick games involving the Broncos and promptly ballsing up the all-play. But there just isn’t a final game out there I like; can’t pick against Jax even if I wanted to, not touching the Saints… so going against the Raiders again – itself not a 100% successful strategy for me this year – will have to do.

      Essay Steelers -5 over Jets – Got a bit of a sinking feeling about all of these games, but I can at least justify them to myself on some level, whereas any pick I made in the KC/Buffalo matchup would feel aleatory and depressing. After three weeks’ consistent sucking, culminating in that 21-point Browns loss, the Steelers have somehow put together three straight impressive performances and, of course, an absolute frenzy of passing touchdowns. The Jets pass defense is considered a vulnerability so presumably the plan will be to continue on the same course (and elsewhere I’m up against Roethlisberger in fantasy football, so I’m glumly preparing for another 6-TD performance) – while they’re probably better than their 1-8 record and have a history of playing good teams tough (mostly the Patriots), the wheels do appear to be falling off at a rate of about one per week. Pittsburgh’s defense has been pretty bad but I’m counting on some mistakes from Vick to keep the Jets out of contention, and in a week of inflated point spreads 5 points stands out as a pretty modest line.

  • Utah +9.5 over Oregon,
    Arizona State -2.5 over Notre Dame,
    Ohio State +3 over Sparty*******:

    I hate that this line is up to 4 IRL but I’ll make the Buckeyes my pick of the week anyway. There’s an argument that Ohio State has both the better offense and the better defense in this game but in any event, I don’t think these two teams are as far apart as public perception seems to have them here. Mostly, though, I just think it’s finally time for an Urban Meyer-led Buckeyes group to exceed expectations in a big spot. Having survived in a tough spot at Happy Valley at night two weeks ago can only help here.

    Niners +4 over Saints,
    Bills +1.5 over Chiefs,
    Bears + 7 over Packers.

    • hater.

    • Art_Brosef

      Teams with national championship aspirations should be able to do more than “survive” against unranked .500 teams, regardless of location. Not sure how that game can be looked upon as any sort of feather in their cap.

      • CLEVTA

        In that case, Oregon should be eliminated for only beating WSU by 7, Miss St for only beating Arkansas at home by 7, Bama for only beating Arkansas by 1 and K St needing a miracle comeback to beat a terrible Iowa St by 4. These survival games happen to almost all teams

        • Art_Brosef

          I get that, and I never suggested anyone should be “eliminated” from anything. I’m just not about to give OSU tons of credit for that game, for obvious reasons, especially around here.

          • I’m just saying experience in hostile night environments can only help.

          • Petefranklin

            They could have folded after that punt screw up and hung tough.

  • The Iron Sheik

    Fghhhhhh

    Ohio state *** +3
    Oregon -9.5
    Kansas state +6
    Notre dame +2.5
    Florida state -18

    Don’t count them in but never count the Buckeyes out. All I continue to hear is how the Bucks have no chance to win this game and in my experience of losing money gambling the money should be on the dog. I think Msu will be caught off guard early and make it close late. OH –

  • shoseph

    All Play: Michigan St. -3 vs. Ohio St.

    • shoseph

      Quick pick before morning kickoffs:

      Steelers -5 vs. Jets

      • shoseph

        Looks like I’m picking all favorites this week:

        Broncos -11.5 vs. Raiders
        Cardinals -7 vs. Rams
        Packers -7 vs. Bears
        Essay: Eagles -6 vs. Panthers

        Look, I know, Mark Sanchez is not a good quarterback. However, he was pretty good when he was at USC. Chip Kelly was a great college football coach and he seems to be a good NFL coach so if he sees something in Sanchez, then there’s something there to be optimistic about. At least in the eyes of this Oregon fan–who admittedly doesn’t know much about football but enjoys watching it–Kelly is all about creating a efficient, fast machine with interchangeable parts. Have a star WR who doesn’t like the way you coach? Let him go off to Washington and put another talented receiver who wants to play for you in his place. In this situation we have a QB with a busted collarbone. Put Sanchez in his place? Sure, why not? It all works with Kelly’s football machine.

  • Its Only Money

    Wisconsin -17 @ Purdue Want to get this one in quick. The rest are coming.

    • Its Only Money

      Now that I got the noon game out of the way I can take a little time on the rest of the picks.

      UCLA -5.5 @ Washington
      Green Bay -7 v Chicago
      Philadelphia – 6 v Carolina
      All Play : Michigan State -3 v Ohio State

      Essay: Duke -3.5 @ Syracuse

      I like Duke this year. I think they are the second best team in the ACC. Coach Cutcliffe has that team believing they are a top program and can get the program competing with the basketball program. I’m not sure they will get to that point, but they have definitely turned it around. The scare in Pittsburgh last week was something that the Blue Devils needed to keep them focused on the prize. They are shooting for an Orange Bowl berth and control their own destiny there. The Orange just don’t have enough to keep up with Duke’s offense and with a hurting QB they are going to struggle even more. Duke is the third ranked opponent to come into the dome and I think it will be the third to come in and win easily.

  • HitTheHorns

    Ohio St +3

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. All Play: Michigan St -3
    2. Duke -3.5

    back with more later

    • Lucy Lawrence

      3. Rice -10

      • Lucy Lawrence

        4. Auburn -21

  • Art_Brosef

    Couldnt recover from all those shots with Kanick in time to get my picks in the last couple weeks. Its been an off year, needless to say: and one in which ive found myself switching careers again – and this is mirroring the previous instance. Either way, weekly prizes are upon us and now is as good of time as any time to catch lightening in a bottle.

    Essay MSU-3

    This is a big game for Urban Meyer and his squad. The problem here is that Urban has been in big games, but his squad has not. Similiar to their trip to State College, this is going to be another tough road night environment for Barrett. The difference, however, is they will be playing a much more talented and complete team, with another NFL QB who is actually on the same page as his coach. OSU has been blowing out creampuffs and filling out the stat sheet for three years, all the while Dantonio has beene quietly putting together a legit and balanced team. This line is begging for OSU cash, so Ill take the better QB and the home night crowd.

    IU +5
    PSU is so weak on the line of scrimmage that they have no business getting this many points to anyone in the Big Ten, right now.

    • Art_Brosef

      Will add Kansas St here. Cant ignore Bill Snyders road record ATS

  • EAGLES -6. Speed Kills. And the Panthers are lacking of late.

    FALCONS -1.5. Who knows what’s going on with this team. But the Bucs are bad.

    CHIEFS -2. I think the single biggest matchup in this game is Justin Houston v. Seantrel Henderson. NFL’s Sack Leader vs Rookie RT. Man with the bigger sack wins.

    MICHIGAN PK. Street fight, I’m taking Pat Fitzgerald. Today, I’m taking Brady Hoke.

    MICHIGAN STATE -3. I’m forced to inexplicably root for the Buckeyes due to the idiocy that’s been created by this 4-team playoff. But I think the Spartans are better.

    CHARLIE MUNGER’S MIS-PRICED BET OF THE YEAR.
    NOTRE DAME +2.5. Notre Dame’s defense has been trending downward over the month of October. They allowed 12ppg through their first five games, and 38ppg over their last three. Something happened, and it wasn’t necessarily that they started playing better teams (North Carolina & Navy were two of the three they played in the last few weeks). They lost their MLB and defensive captain Joe Schmidt for the season last week, and didn’t impress anyone with their performance against the midshipmen on Saturday night. So all signs point to them giving up lots of points and being forced to win a shootout tonight. But I don’t think this is the case…

    If there’s one thing the Irish have gotten right-even though at times in the past, he may have seemed like the antichrist-it was the hiring of Brian Kelly. Regardless of what you think of his demeanor or your perception of his character, he can coach his ass off. The truth is, he fixes things, and fixes things quickly. He’s all the things Notre Dame was lacking in coaches like Charlie Weis, Bob Davie, Ty Willingham…they needed someone who was demanding and tough, but flexible enough to know when things aren’t working, change is needed. In the past, those coaches were either too soft, or too proud.

    I haven’t even mentioned the offense, because I think this is one of those times when Kelly plays to the strengths of his personnel, and limits risks. He’ll put the ball in Tarean Folston’s hands, and he’ll let Golson throw low-risk passes on bubble screens and the occasional fade outside the numbers. I don’t think ASU’s defense is all that good, but don’t expect the Irish to continually challenge them across the middle.

    Not to mention. This game is the season-for both teams. We’ll find out who’s over rated at the end, but I’m thinking its the Sun Devils.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Michigan St -3 over Ohio St ***
    Notre Dame +2.5 over Arizona St
    Auburn -21 over Texas A&M
    Michigan Pick over Northwestern
    Oklahoma -5 over Baylor
    Bills +2 over Chiefs

    *** Michigan St has held Ohio St to its lowest point totals of the season each of the past two years. They continue to have a very strong defense and Ohio St has not looked great on offense recently, especially against Penn St. Sparty has had an extra week to prepare for what is essentially the game of the year in the Big 10. The line has climbed above 3 in most places so some strong money has pushed this up.

  • bupalos

    tOSU +3 @MSU. Should be close. Why not points?
    Georgia -10; the board’s reasoning on a frustration game seems sound.

    • bupalos

      Let’s add Florida State to this. I think FSU has reason to pour on the points and Virginia has reason to quit early and make sure they aren’t spent for the final two which are winnable and would maybe get them to a bowl.

  • 1. Toledo -13 at Kent. (loss)
    at UAB +3.5 LaTech
    2. *PSU -5 at IU IU doesnt stop pass, PSU passes. IU likes to run, PSU stops run.
    *Iowa -1 at Minny Is there an Iowa injury I don’t know about? Minny ironically seems like dome team, Iowa the tough outdoor team and it’s going to be chilly.
    3. *Wisc -17 at Purdue Wisc defense is in the zone, last two games gave up 18 first downs — total. Is Purdue offense markedly better than RU or UMD? Don’t think so.
    *GaSt +6.5 at Troy
    *at AppySt -4 ULM
    UTEP +8 at WKU
    4. *GaSo -11 at TxSt Georgia Southern in name the score mode.
    at UNLV +6 AFA
    Idaho +21 at SDSU
    *at LSU +6.5 Bama
    5. AP OSU +3 at MSU Coming off bye week is more disadvantage than advantage, imo. Love Dantonio and Narduzzi but love Urban in a money game more.
    ULL -16.5 at NMST
    ____
    6. Essay ***Dolphins +3 at Lions Lions reverted to form in the Falcons win-non-cover. Dolphins last five games, four two TD wins. Lost to the Packers, no shame there. I looked at the latest 603PWR ranks and the Dolphins have quietly crept up to #3 in these LOS rankings while the Lions are falling slightly (albeit still top 10). But of particular interest is Tannehill’s performance trend compared to Stafford’s: Tannehill on the up, crushing it against Weddle and Flowers; Stafford is meh against the 31st-against-the-pass Falcons. Stafford gets CJohnson back, yes, but high ankle sprains are notoriously tricky. I question whether it’ll be 100% Megatron. A playoff contending team can’t risk losing their top player in November, so I don’t expect complete Johnson. Dolphins announced their relevance with last week’s 37-0 shellacking of the Chargers but no one seemed to notice. They’re now the PFF top rated defense. Cameron Wake is the top rated 43DE. We’ll all know the Dolphins are legit after this game.
    ___
    at Bucs +1.5 Falcons
    at Raiders +11.5 Broncos
    at Cards -7 Rams
    at Eagles -6 Panthers

    • Petefranklin

      Be careful with UNLV. I was surely going to take them but then I was treated to VIP treatment at the Nellis Airshow yesterday, got to talk to the Thunderbird pilots after they flew, the whole 9 yards, which ironically, is how much UNLV might give up per play. Those Air Force guys are pretty sharp,and the hardest airshow for them to fly in is in Colorado Springs. They don’t really like flying over the water in Cleveland either because they lose their perspective and marks over water. UNLV prepped for the triple option last week as well but Air Force can actually pass the ball. If UNLV athletics weren’t broke, I’d say Hauck will be fired after he loses this game.

  • Dave Borcas

    Bama -6.5 Was Arkansas their wake up call?
    FSU -18 no point shaving today please
    Buckeyes +3 (all play) can JT Barrett show up in a big game?
    Ravens -9.5 Titans are the leagues bitch
    Jets +5 because incarcerated Bob said the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets will show up this week
    Oregon -9.5 (essay)
    I love watching Oregon play, plus they are the only team who has not let me down this year. I believe that Marcus Marietta will win the Heisman trophy and be the darling of the NFL draft. Whether he develops into a great NFL QB is another question. The Duck offense is so fun to watch plus its fun to try and guess what the uniforms will be each week. Physical teams tend to give the Ducks a challenge but they are beginning to recruit some big bodies to help with that. The Oregon ability to score early and often usually takes teams out of their comfort zone.

  • Petefranklin

    Pick 3) Kansas St +6
    AP) Buckeyes

  • AmplifiedEsq

    1) OSU +3 *All-Play* – Will be at the game… No way I could take MSU.
    2) Boise St. -18.5 *ESSAY*
    3) App. St. -4
    4) Colorado St. -18
    5) Atlanta -1.5
    6) Denver -11.5

    Will use the essay pass this morning… wanted to check out Gameday and running way late.

  • Capitalgg

    Week 11

    So I’m kinda glad October is over. It was especially brutal to me. I haven’t hit anything better than a 5 since week 4. 6 grotesque weeks ago. But champions are made in November, so here I go…

    All-play: Ohio St. +3 @ Michigan St.: Would have been my essay except for 2 things: Sparty at home and off the bye. Otherwise, Urban Meyer is 35-3 all-time in November and has yet to lose one at OSU, OSU has yet to lose as an underdog under Meyer, and this is a revenge game after OSU let MSU off the hook in the B1G Championship Game last December. When a coach begins looking to a game during the 4th quarter of his last game (Meyer started prepping with Mickey Marotti during the OSU triumphant detainment of the Illibuck).

    1. Penn St. -5 @ Indiana: This is mostly a bet against the IU QB “situation” (i.e. they don’t have anyone to play there).
    2. LSU +6.5 v. Alabama: Death Valley. Night. Alabama still hasn’t beaten anyone. Mad Hatter. Geaux Tigers!
    3. Saints -5 v. 49ers: Hate this week’s NFL slate. Like this one best because Brees/Payton at home.
    4. TBD: Wanted to get the essay in since it’s a nooner.

    Let’s essay Georgia -10 @ Kentucky. UGA got curb-stomped in a rivalry game last week. My goodness, what a terrible Florida team did to them. Seemed a case of 1 motivated team v. a completely disinterested team. That should smack Georgia’s attention back to football and poor Kentucky will be the victim. Love what Mike Stoops is doing in Lexington, but just an unfortunate spot for them here. At least the tailgates will be good this morning in the bluegrass, because they are about to get old-fashioned UK football… the home team gets blown out.

    • Capitalgg

      My options for 4th play, will probably tweet in the pick:
      Arizona St. -2.5 v. Notre Dame: One of 4 playoff elimination games being played today. I’ve liked the Sun Devils all year. And Pac12 > ACC, so…
      Florida St. -18 v. Virginia: Can the ‘Noles stay interested long enough to finally blow out a decent team?
      Vanderbilt +14.5 v. Florida: UF should not give 2 scores against anyone, including Vandy.
      Air Force -6 @ UNLV: When in doubt, bet against the Runnin’ Rebs.

  • trashycamaro

    1. AP/College: OSU +3 over MSU I couldn’t hate OSU more or care less about little brother. So, points!

    2. Essay: Lions -3 over Dolphins I like the Dolphins and they typically play better on the road than at home. And the Lions have really been struggling on offense while their defense dominates. We have seen Golden Tate step up while Calvin was out. I think that carries over now that Calvin is back. The Dolphins have rebuilt their offensive line, but it is not strong enough to stand up to strength and speed of the Lions pass rush.

    3. Steelers -5 over Jets

    4. Packers -7 over Bears

    5. Bills +2 over Kansas City

    6. Saints -5 over 49ers

  • p_forever

    And away – we – go – yikes – I feel nervous lol. Okay okay here:

    georgia -10 kentucky***

    msu -3 osu

    nd -2.5 arizona st.

    virginia +18.5 fla st.

    oregon -9.5 utah

    broncos -11.5 raiders (not because the raiders are bad – they are just catching peyton at the worst possible time. he super always bounces back after losses – it’s one of his more charming qualities).

    ***so my essay pick is the bulldogs over the wildcats. it’s one of those college football things – after losing a rivalry game – especially the way georgia lost to flordia – they will crush the next team they meet. I don’t think there is much to the theory that because georgia is allegedly now out of it play-off wise they won’t be motivated to play. This is an SEC team, remember? I promise you there will be at least a few 2-loss SEC teams arguing that they deserve a playoff spot over 1-loss or even undefeated teams. College kids are eternal optimists, not like their jaded NFL brethren. Georgia can’t erase the loss, but they can win the next one by 100.

    • Capitalgg

      Good essay choice! Great minds think alike, I guess.

      • p_forever

        🙂

        • Capitalgg

          That’s a quality start…

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    All play osu +3
    Green Bay -7
    Jets +5
    Broncos -11.5
    Philly -6 essay
    Taking my bye week this week on essays. Be back tomorrow with final play. Maybe tonight kinda like nd

  • thatsfine

    Let’s try to salvage something out of this week.
    KState +6
    OhioSt. +3
    UTSA +10
    Jets +5

  • FTCMikeD

    GA Southern -11 over @Texas St
    K St +6 over @TCU
    @Utah +9.5 over Oregon
    ****AP: OSU +3 over @Sparty****

    @Ravens -9.5 over Titans
    @Packers -7 over Bears

    *****
    My essays are shit. My all plays are good. Time to do an essay on the all play. I’m gun shy on the Buckeyes after my POTY debacle in happy valley but I have to do it. This is truly a fade the public play for me, which is usually how I approach the all plays in general. The public is all over Sparty. The experts are all over Sparty. SECPN will be all over Sparty because lolBIGsux SEC SEC. I foresee a hard fought, low scoring game. I hope the Buckeyes win, but should they lose I think it will be a close one. And if not, you should have looked at my record on the essays.

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Rice -10
    Michigan St -3
    Purdue +17
    Washington +5

    Cardinals -7

    Essay in the works depending on the late Cowboys / Jags line… I’ll have a Plan B in case a late line doesn’t materialize.

    • Cowboys -7 vs Jags in London.

      • Jonathan MacDonald

        Jaguars +7 (Essay)

        Ah, the London Series. Land of Bobbies, football that’s played with the foot, driving on the wrong side of the road, bangers and mash, warm beer, bad teeth, etc. I’m using the Jerry Jones Meddling Factor to guide this week’s essay. He played ‘ball for the Razorbacks back in the 60s, of course. He built a successful empire in whatever it is he did to make enough money to own the Cowboys. He cannot smuggle enough drugs into the UK to get Tony Romo back to 100% for this match. There’s considerable pressure for the face of the franchise to suit up for a big in-season exhibition when he’s probably not ready, and there’s the usual pro-Cowboys sentiment to move the Vegas needle. I’d say that once again the Cowboys are over hyped and setting themselves up to fall short.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Thursday night was HEAVEN.

    (AP) Sparty -3 OSU
    Pack -7 Bears
    Bucs +1.5 Falcons
    Steelers -5 Jets
    Niners +5 Saints**
    **The quirky NFL may be exasperating to some wagering types, but that’s what I love about it. How boring if things pan out as expected, we get plenty of that in everyday life. So the Saints seem like they’ve righted the ship after a slowish start, while San Francisco is scrambling to find their way back. OK. But anything can happen as we have seen, so might as well put blind faith in whichever way the ball bounces, or the Dameshek football baby falls, as it were, because all the stats and history and knowledge on paper is tempered by the human spirit which cannot be measured. So great that there are still some things so pure and unswayed by outside powerful forces. I think that’s why so many of us find joy in this sport.

  • jdoepke

    Let me preface this week’s selections by saying congratulations and kudos to all you Browns fans on a big win in a big spot Thursday night. That being said, you beat a team who had a QBR of 2.0. The Bengals did everything they could (per usual) to shoot themselves in the foot in a big spot (2-9 under Lewis in primetime/playoff games). Still think Bengals win division, they already swept Ravens and will split with Browns and Steelers like every other year. Will come down Bengals being able to steal one on road. Good news is that next 5 games are all Sunday at 1pm EST before Broncos at home on MNF (odds on crapping the bed here?)

    Here are my picks this week:
    Syracuse +3.5
    BC+3
    Utah +9.5
    Bills +2
    Sparty -3 (AP)

    TCU -6 (Essay)
    I hate betting favorites. I’ve watched TCU this year and they are good. I think they win the Big 12 and get a spot in the Final 4 this year. Laying 6 vs. the #9 team in the country seems a little high, so I will go with the theory that Vegas knows more than I do. Kansas St is solid and has a helluva coach, if this game was in Manhattan I’d be the other way but I think TCU comes up big in a big spot to propel them firmly into the playoff picture. TCU 34 – 27.

    Other considerations:
    Texas +3
    Lions -3
    Tulsa -14

    • chuckycrater

      I thought about TCU because I think they win this pretty easily but decided I didn’t want to have Cheddar action on a game I was seeing in person. (Bought the tickets a month ago for 1/3 the current asking rate. Second year in a row I’ve stumbled into seeing the potential game of the year in the Big XII.)

  • GRRustlers

    Week 11 Picks

    Feel like I am a couple of good weeks from getting back to that red line and decided to do what got me back into the mix last year. Favorites. Nothing but favorites.

    AP – MSU (-3) over OSU – Secretly looking forward to the MSU/Oregon rematch at a neutral field.

    Rice (-10) over UTSA
    Broncos (-11.5) over Raiders

    Saints (-5) over 49ers – I secretly think that Harbaugh is plotting to take the Oakland job and find a way to sour enough people in SF on Kapernick that he brings him along in a trade with him. I base this on nothing other that I thought the end of Any Given Sunday was cool and Harbaugh and Kapernick in silver and black just works. By the way…what week will the Browns get credit from the national media for a good win vs New Orleans? I’ll hang up and listen…

    Lions (-3) over Dolphins

    Essay Pick

    Last night before the Browns game I was kicking around a thought with a friend via text after thinking all was lost with Hawkins out. The thought was this. If you believe that you have a QB who is far superior to your opponent AND a coach who is far superior you should be in a good position to win every week. Of course there are going to be outliers to this theory and Gladwell is probably busy writing 4 million words on it as we speak. The best example of this theory to me comes into play on Sunday night. I have a self admitted man crush on Jay Cutler and up until recently really wanted to see him in Cleveland. However…something is off this year and Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind. Rodgers is the far superior QB and if the Bears have to talk about how Trestman has not lost the locker room…well you know what that means. Add in the fact that Mccarthy just got a contract extension and the Packers had a bye week to prepare for this…love the Packers Sunday night.

    Packers (-7) over Bears

  • Chris Schroeder

    -17 Wisconsin @ Purdue
    -2.5 Arizona State vs. Notre Dame
    -3 West Virginia @ Texas
    -9.5 Oregon @ Utah
    All Play: -3 Michigan State vs. Ohio State

    Essay: -1 Iowa @ Minnesota

    Setting: Minneapolis, MN ‘Dinkytown’ Stadium: TCF Bank Stadium Weather: 40 degrees Partly Cloudy WNW @ 16 mph Fun Fact: Iowa and Minnesota are playing for the Floyd of Rosedale. It was introduced in 1935 when then Minnesota Governor Floyd Olson sent a telegram (after heated words had been exchanged between governors) Dear Clyde (Iowa Governor Clyde L. Herring) Minnesota folks excited over your statement about the Iowa crowd lynching the Minnesota football team. I have
    assured them that you are a law-abiding gentleman and are only trying to get our goat. The Minnesota team will tackle clean, but, oh! how hard, Clyde. If you seriously think Iowa has any chance to win, I will bet you a Minnesota prize hog against an Iowa prize hog that Minnesota wins today. The loser must deliver the hog in person to the winner. Accept my bet thru a reporter. You are getting odds because Minnesota raises better hogs than Iowa. My best personal regards and condolences.” The Game: Sometimes history is more entertaining then me trying to bullshit why a team
    should win. Hawks big!!! One step closer to a West title.

  • chuckycrater

    ESSAY: Memphis -7.5 vs. Temple

    Hey, Temple beat mid-major darling East Carolina last week! Wrong. East Carolina beat East Carolina. They had 12 penalties and five turnovers and Temple cashed in on just enough of them to win the game. The Owls only gained 135 yards against a pretty dreadful ECU defense and had amazing fumble luck. That won’t cut it against a well-coached, hard-hitting, mean-ass team like Memphis. The Tigers might truly be the best team in the American and I think they pound home the reality that Temple’s win last week was a fluke.

    • chuckycrater

      This isn’t going well but here are the rest of my picks before I forget:

      ALL PLAY: Michigan State -3 vs. Ohio State
      UCLA -5 vs. Washington (stinky fish pick)
      Notre Dame +2.5 vs. Arizona State
      Dolphins +3 vs. Lions

  • Nick

    POTY Browns (w)
    Memphis -8 vs Temple
    MSU -3 vs OSU
    Notre Dame +2.5 vs ASU
    New Orleans -5 vs San Francisco
    Philly -6 vs Panthers

  • Concierge

    OSU +3
    RICE -10

    UTEP +8
    Denver Broncos -11.5

  • HitTheHorns

    Wyoming +6
    Memphis -7.5
    Texas +3

    • Petefranklin

      You are getting Langed…

      Brandon Lang

      Friday Selection …

      My 30 dime selection is on the Wyoming over Utah St The current line on this game is +7 1/2 in Vegas and offshore.

  • bupalos

    I’m going to throw caution to the wind and go for a second play of the year! Give me the Cleveland Browns over the Cincinatti Bengals tonight please. I’m going to risk 6 points on this one, I have a really good feeling.

    • you might need to change your passwords and clearly putin is out to sow seeds of discord here at cheddar with postdated POTY picks. can tell by the customary russian butchering of the cincinnati spelling.

      • bupalos

        What are you telling me? This game has already been played?

        Who won and how many points do I get?

    • actovegin1armstrong

      “You must obey the law, always, not only when they grab you by your special place”
      Vladimir Putin

  • CLEVTA

    1) Browns +6 (W)
    2) OSU +3 (all play)
    3) Texas +3
    4) NC St +5
    5) Colorado +15.5
    6) Jets +5- my non essay week essay

  • Peter Markos

    Sparty
    Notre Dame -2.5 over ASU
    TENN +9.5 over BALT
    OAK +11.5
    ARI -7 over STL
    PITT -5 over NYJ Ben wont throw 6 TDs again but 3 or 4 should be more than enough. The Steeler success the last two weeks might have been a sign that the Browns defense is better than we thought. The other thought is the NFL is a crapshoot any given Sunday.

  • Matt Borcas

    ***ESSAY*** Tulsa -12 over SMU: It may seem downright crazy to give 12 points with a 1-7 team, but I’m sticking with the year’s most foolproof strategy: picking against SMU. The Mustangs’ CLOSEST game this season was a 45-24 loss to East Carolina, and other than that, they’ve lost by 45, 37, 52, 56, 38, and 38, respectively. In short, they are horrendous. (I would say they’re the worst CFB team I’ve ever seen, but their games are too ugly to watch. Former head coach June Jones stepped down in September due to this exact reason.) They are on pace to finish last in points scored AND points allowed. I will gladly continue to pick against them until their opponent is favored by 40 or more.

    Michigan (pk) over Northwestern
    Ohio State +3 over Michigan State
    Notre Dame +2.5 over Arizona State
    Utah +9.5 over Oregon
    Steelers -5 over Jets

  • Petefranklin

    Best part of last night:

  • swig

    AP: MSU -3 o tOSU, emotional hedge
    ESSAY: PACKERS -7 o Bears
    SAINTS -5 o 49ers
    EAGLES -6 o Panthers
    Giants +9.5 o SEAHAWKS
    Chiefs -2 o BILLS

    Runner up pick:
    Steelers -5 o JETS, don’t want to believe

    Lines are tight this week, this was tough.

    • swig

      Lots of closely matched teams or akward spots this week. I do not know who to trust. As such, I employed the tried and true method of throwing spaghetti against the wall and seeing what stuck. This is an unusual situation for me; taking a TD favorite, in a divisional matchup, and a public pick. Typing all those things made me throw up in my mouth a bit. The Pack are getting in their grove, and the Bears can not play defense. If I go down it will be via backdoor cover, and I will know I desereved it.

  • HitTheHorns

    Browns +6 for 1 point

  • The Iron Sheik

    Brown +6

  • chuckycrater

    I’d like Wake Forest +22 for one point tonight. Way too many points for a Clemson team that is struggling to actually score 22 points in a game lately, and Wake can play defense if nothing else.

  • mo_by_dick

    Aw hell put me on Browns +6

    • mo_by_dick

      Tweeted in OSU last night

      Cowboys -7
      Chiefs -2
      Steelers -5
      ***Packers -7 (ESSAY)

      Taking Rodgers and the home-favorite Packers on Sunday night, based off of the dumpster fire that the Bears defense has been in recent weeks. Apart from playing decently against the Falcons, the bears have given up 38, 31, 27, and 51 over the past 5 games. Both teams are coming off byes, and the Packers should be hungry after getting beat soundly by the Saints. Not sure if the Bears internal turmoil storyline is still there but would consider that a plus as well.

  • Nick

    Pick of the Year Browns +6 vs Bengals.

    It’s a full moon for Taurus tonight, and no wonder because I’m feeling great.

    After two competitive runs in the bay, I’m ready to go into the tank for the rest of year, if I haven’t already. This year was a setback for me in Cheddar Bay, no question. That’s OK because I have put my time to better use. Sometimes you have to take one step backwards to take two step forwards. I will cheerfully, and drunkenly, back the Browns tonight in Pettine’s first big November game.

    The Browns run D has been awful, but they have shown the ability to make big stops in key situations. Cinci’s injuries to the linebackers have taken the teeth out of their defense. Browns center Nick McDonald should improve. The Browns secondary is becoming elite and making big time plays each week. I’ll take Pettine/Hoyer over Lewis/Dalton any day.

    On Monday, one of my co-workers spent an hour explaining to me over dinner why Montana is awesome. I know Big Sky Brewing Co makes great beer, but not much else about the state. She sold it well and made me really want to visit there soon. Today I learned I am going to Montana for a wedding next summer.

    • chuckycrater

      The completely random and unnecessary aside about Montana really made this essay great.

    • Petefranklin

      Montana is awesome! Glacier National Park is the most beautiful one in the country, and I’ve camped in all the good ones.Kokanee beer is cheap and delicious. Butte reminds me of Cleveland believe it or not. Yellowstone is a must camp while you are there as well, you see all kinds of rare animals early in the morning, I recommend the eastern campground.

    • jpftribe

      Pettine / Hoyer over Lewis / Dalton was spot on. Well played.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Congratulations on your PoTY Nick! Very happy that you were correct and I booted yet another essay.
      Montana is very beautiful, you will love it! But please remember the same Cleveland joke I take credit for creating when I moved to tejas is true about Montana, perhaps even more-so.
      “Only visit Cleveland/Montana during the summer. Summer there is gorgeous, and last year, summer was on a Saturday, so everyone was able to enjoy it.”
      Montana is crazy cold, please remember to dress in many layers if you go outside and every 20 minutes light one of the layers on fire.

  • Petefranklin

    Great news for Brown backers:

    Brandon Lang

    Thursday Selection …

    My 50 dime selection is on the Bengals over the Browns The current line on this game is -6 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

    ANALYSIS:

    Going to be a long night for the road team here.

    Off their sluggish win at home over Tampa Bay, the Browns now roll into their in state rival banged up and missing some key components.

    That will be just enough for the Bengals to get the double digit win.

    The starting backfield for the Cleveland is banged up, their starting center is out and they star receiver is listed as questionable.

    With all that being said, they are playing in a stadium where the home town Bengals are a money making 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS last 14 regular season games.

    Just on that number alone the right side of the game is the Bengals.

    Furthermore, this is only the 4th true road game of the year for Cleveland as they lost at Pittsburgh week one, come from behind win at the Titans and an outright loss at Jacksonville 24-6.

    This is a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight as the Bengals roll and roll big.

    Jump on the home team to continue their money making ways.

    • jpftribe

      LOL!!!

      Bengals rolled alright, rolled over, and over, and over……

  • CLEVTA

    1) Browns +6

  • Matt Borcas

    Off topic, but does anyone follow Karlos Dansby on Instagram? http://instagram.com/karlosdansby56 His diet appears to consist entirely of something called “lobster mash”. He seriously posts a picture of it at least once per day … perhaps this delicacy is responsible for the Browns’ 5-3 record???

    In other news, Greg Little! I would say he’s going to punt a ball into the stands tonight, but that would require him to make a play first.

    • CLEVTA

      lol “something called lobster mash”? Best side dish at a good steakhouse. Bits of lobster whipped in fine mashed potatoes. Phenom

    • actovegin1armstrong

      The best Soul Food restaurant in Cleveland had Liver Mash as a top feature on their menu. Absolutely one of the foods I miss the most. I would take liver mash over lobster mash any day. Extra special with a couple of fried eggs on top.
      The last time I had some Liver Mash was a decade ago in Charlotte NC.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Who is Greg Little?

      • mgbode

        he’s the guy on the other side of this Sheard pancake

        https://vine.co/v/OeDazemaHBM

        • actovegin1armstrong

          Thank you for the laugh oh great bodhisattva.
          Mr Little put an extra hit on Sheard after the play was already past him, he was obviously taking that game personally.

    • I can’t believe this Dansby lobster mash thing is real

  • Rob

    No faith in this team playing on the road against actual NFL competition on a short week based on their performance over the past 3 weeks.

    CIN -6

    • Rob

      ¯_(ツ)_/¯

    • Rob

      AP: MSU -3

    • Rob

      Let’s see if actual capping works better for the rest:
      ATL -1.5
      PHI -6
      BUF +2

      Essay:
      NYJ +5
      It seems strange to me that in the year 2014 I’m taking a Mike Vick-as-a-2nd-string-QB-led Jets against a Dick Lebeau defense, but welp, here I am! I guess we’re supposed to believe that Big Ben is the best QB of all-time following his last 2 performances, but look… he did it against an always putrid Colts D that is masked by their Luckbox offense, and a Baltimore defense that well… isn’t as murderous as it used to be. Not that any average QB could do that, but let’s go back to the ol’ recency bias well and realize that it ain’t happening again, but the combination of PIT’s recent run and the Jets continual nosedive, and the public love for the Steelers, and let’s just say I also threw the Jets into a 2-team moneyline parlay for the hell of it.

      pssst… the other ml is the Niners.

  • **essay** Buffalo +2 vs. KC
    this is my essay without an essay week as I chug bloody mary’s at the Nashville bar, pre-Bachelorette.

    MSU-3 vs. Buckeyes
    Virginia +18 v. FSU
    CLE +6 vs. Cincinnati
    TSA +10 vs. Rice
    Ratbirds -9.5 vs. Titans

  • for FHCF:

    Wake Forest +22
    Kentucky +10
    Houston -18
    ***Bengals -6
    The Browns can show me, and they might, but they have to show me. The defense has been better but still doesn’t stop anybody in the run game and the Bengals have Green back. The offense just hasn’t been the same and hasn’t had to play under pressure by a good team in a while. This just smells like a reality-check beatdown and I’m going to follow the scent for my essay points.

    • mgbode

      what? I am mad at myself for not seeing this yesterday. you picked Andy Dalton in a primetime game with playoff implications and heavy winds.

      also, since when does AJ Green matter against Joe Haden?

  • technivore

    MICHIGAN STATE -3 over Ohio State (AP)
    WYOMING +6 over Utah State
    Broncos -11.5 over RAIDERS

    ESSAY: BOSTON COLLEGE +3 over Louisville
    After blowing a huge lead to FSU last week and with their next game against Notre Dame, there is no way that Louisville’s head is entirely in this game no matter what Bobby Petrino says in a press conference. BC is not exactly an historical rival for Louisville to get fired up about, the weather is going to be cold (though not, unfortunately, raining), and this is a classic trap game.

    But more importantly, the Eagles are moving from a tough out at home to a surprisingly good team. I’ve shied away from them after they disappointed me in week 2 but BC is 6-3 ATS this season and 7-1 ATS at home against conference opponents according to some disreputable handicapping website I found. I like everything I’ve read about their coach, Steve Addazio: gets the kids to buy in and play hard, isn’t afraid to plug in young players, and most importantly he fits his game plan to his talent.

    Louisville’s very tough D worries me in this one, but I like taking the points at home with a good team with a good coach, and Tyler Murphy is explosive enough that Louisville could bottle him up for almost the whole game, only to tire out and give up that backbreaking run in the 4th quarter.

    • technivore

      KENTUCKY +10 over Georgia

      • technivore

        Jaguars and Jets for my last two. And damn I wish I’d pulled the trigger on TAMU.

        • jags or jets? youre at five picks already. entering jags for you.

  • PJD19

    Utah
    Browns
    Bills ***essay***

    I’ve been on the run for last month + and my cheddar bay picks have suffered. Time to get back to basics and ride with old Buffalo Bills. The reason for this pick and optimism for a Bills playoff appearance is Kyle Orton. Orton, as you all know is a midling journeyman quarterback. But he is not a midling leader of men. The bills have had playoff quality talent for the last few years, but lacked playoff caliber confidence and leadership. Orton gives them both. The bills have played the Chiefs the last six seasons and had a lot of success. They barely lost to the then 8-0 Chiefs last year with rookie Jeff Tuel at the helm. The Chiefs are a better squad than they were last year, but the Bills are a MUCH better version of their last year selves.

  • PJD19

    Kentucky
    Duke
    MSU

  • Tim Butler

    AP: MSU -3 over osu
    LIONS -3 over dolphins
    CARDS -7 over rams
    BILLS +2 over chiefs
    PACKERS -7 over bears
    ESSAY: EAGLES -6 over panthers

    All home teams this week.

    Remember last year when the Eagles started 0-4 at home? Well this year has been the total opposite. The eagles come into this game 4-0 at home, riding high on the Mark Sanchez wave after everyone’s favorite surfer Nick Foles cracked his collarbone last week. Buttfumble? What buttfumble? Sanchez is the savior the Eagles have been looking for. He’s a better decision maker than Foles, he’s sexier, and I hear his cadence is amazing. Cam Newton completed just over 30% of his passes last week. Which has nothing to do with this week, but still. I still like the Eagles.

    • Tim Butler

      Not sure what’s up but I made all of these picks on thursday and none of them are listed on the official picks excel.

  • ChuckKoz

    Raiders +11.5 (at Broncos)
    Washington State +8 (at OSU)
    UCLA -5 (at UW)
    Arizona -15.5 (vs UC)
    AP: Ohio State +3 (at MSU)
    Essay: Notre Dame +2.5 (at ASU)

    Fun Fact: Pope John Paul II did a mass at ASU stadium back in the 80s, which almost had to be cancelled until ASU was able to conceal all of the Devil logos/names around the stadium. Not saying that is significant leads to a home field advantage/disadvantage, but a fun fact nonetheless (although I do think the homefield advantage for ASU will much be less than usual). As for the teams, I have never been a huge believer in ASU, probably because of my disdain for their a-hole coach. And while ASU has looked more impressive in their win over mutual opponent Stanford, I think the biggest distinguishing marker is their losses: ND a very tough loss AT Florida State, while ASU got murdered at home by UCLA. That tips it for me, so we like Notre Dame.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Wake Forest +22 over Clemson

  • zarathustra

    Bowling Green (W)

    Browns +6 over Bengals
    I expect the Brown to win outright. And Texans (+6?) is a strong frontrunner for my essay pick next week.

    Ohio St +3 over Sparty
    I’ve been a buckeye fan for a long time, but my guess is that over the years here I have picked against them a great deal more often than I’ve picked them. Moreover, I daresay that now in my fifth year here there is not a single individual I have written more cheddar bay love letters to than mark dantonio. Which is all just a convoluted way of saying this isn’t a homer pick. It’s just that the JT Barrett heisman campaign begins Saturday and I’m not getting on the other side of it.

    Utah St -6 over Wyoming
    The aggies have three losses:
    @ tennessee @ arky st @ colorado st(16-13)
    They are still alive for the conference championship. If they win out (finishing with a win at boise) and Colorado St gets upset (unlikely, but at air force to end the regular season has some upset potential) they will win their division and likey face my beloved Nevada wolf pack.
    This number is 7 in real life so I am happy to only lay 6.

    San Jose St over Fresno St
    Spartan losses: @ auburn @ Minnesota @ Navy and home to Nevada and Colorado St. All bowl teams with a few contenders for their conference championship and of course one with a shot at winning the whole thing.
    Fresno St has also lost to some damn good teams as well…and UNLV. Not to mention getting smoked at home against Wyoming last week (though that is probably a reason to bet them here.) Their wins: southern utah, @ new mexico–I had the pleasure of watching that bob davie masterpiece–and san diego st–totally misleading as it was the first start for a freshman aztec qb who was awful.
    San Jose is coming off two tough losses to two good teams (they stuck around in both too) and I’m wagering they seize the opportunity to get back in the win column.

    Iowa St -4 over Kansas***
    Not all 2-6 teams are created equal! The Cyclones began the season with a home loss to north dakota st, then damn near beat a very good kansas st team the following week. Next they go to Iowa and pull the upset (one of the better zara essay picks this season;) They couldn’t handle Baylor but not many teams can, they fought hard in stillwater but couldn’t get it done. Then finally some relief with a MAC team–beating toledo at home. Next, the wrong end of a shoot-out in Austin only to be followed by Oklahoma off a loss and a bye.
    Iowa St is not good, but they’ve had a pretty damn tough schedule and have battled through it admirably in my opinion. The schedule doesn’t get any easier after this one (hello tcu, hello ‘neers) and they are not going to squander an opportunity for an oh so precious win.
    The bright spots for this shitty Kansas team? A home win over cheddar bay darling CMU? A touchdown loss to Okie St? I’m guessing that even the absence of Weis Weis baby (shout-out to a cheddar bay classic) is not enough to give this kansas team any hope of winning again this season.

  • Petefranklin

    Looks like we all might get Langed on Ball St tonight.
    OU -3.5 for a point (pick 2)

    • Petefranklin

      Brandon Lang
      Tuesday Selection …
      My 20 dime selection is on Ball State over N.Illinois The current line on this game is +3 1/2 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

      • Petefranklin

        I knew that I should have downgraded as soon as I saw Lang and heard the P.O.D on vegas radio…they said Ball St was the sharp side. Can’t win if you can’t catch the ball!

  • Concierge

    Ball St. +3 Essay
    Hell take the money line on ball state in the battle for the Bronze Stalk. Ball State is the better team and will win this game outright. Have you seen Jack Milas? This kid can play and he has a ton of weapons now that Jordan Williams is back to being healthy. Jahwan Edwards just so happens to be the best RB that Ball State has ever had too. I don’t trust NIU’s defense and this game is in Muncie so the crowd will be rocking. CHIRP CHIRP!!

    • Concierge

      Add Buffalo +3.5 too. AJ Oulette is doubtful so I’m sure Daz Patterson will fumble 62 times…and Joe Licata is gonna break a record.

  • actovegin1armstrong
  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    lines?

  • cwonder23

    Ball State +3 for one point

    • cwonder23

      Full picks:
      Ball State +3 vs NIU (loss)
      Dolphins +3 @ Lions
      Bills +2 vs Chiefs
      Raiders +11.5 vs Broncos
      All Play: MSU -3 vs OSU
      Essay: Notre Dame +2.5 @ ASU
      Everett Golson and Brian Kelly vote of confidence here. Notre Dame was pretty much screwed at FSU and should still be unbeaten in my opinion. If the result of that game were different I may expect this to be a pick em’. ASU had to win with a Hail Mary vs USC and were destroyed by an average UCLA team (62 points allowed). I think ND has the weapons to win what should be a high scoring affair. I was thinking about making this one my POTY but hesitated because it’s on the road and ND has to travel west. I think this is a good ND team and will take the points. 34-31 ND.

  • thatsfine

    MACtion, my old friend
    Toledo -13.5
    Ball St. +3
    Both for a single, for now. I may essay Ball State, but I think Pete has it covered below.

    • thatsfine

      Ball St. +3 – Essay
      My Lobsterfest is a goner this week along with Toledo’s QB last night. With Cheddar lines now posted there’s none I like better this week so let’s call this my essay . As a follower of all things MAC, I’ve seen the improvement in Ball State since throwing freshman QB Jack Milas in. They remind me of another team I’m liking right now, The University of Houston, a rejuvenated offense with a QB switch. I’d love to keep essaying Houston but I think the betting public has caught up with them this week. Not so for Ball State. I think that the first week of mid-week MACtion is leaning on the public’s perception of NIU that is (primarily) a holdover from last year – when Jordan Lynch and co. were tearing through the MAC. NIU still has a dangerous offense, but diminished. Ball St. is a team on the rise and they need this one big time. The Bronze Stalk? Sounds like a code word for what we just legalized here in Oregon yesterday.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Akron -6.5 BG

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Toledo -13.5 for one Cheddar point

    OSU for the all play

    rest later, go Rockets

  • actovegin1armstrong

    AP Michigan State over OSU
    BGSU +6.5
    Kent State +13.5
    Ball State +3 Thank you Mr Franklin
    Considering the fact that I have never been correct on an essay, I feel safe with,
    ****The Bungles over Our Beloved Browns**** Essay
    The Browns are about to come crashing back into the reality of Cleveland sports, the fine art of snatching defeat from the gaping maw of victory. Our new FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK, JFF, (Johnny Forgot Football) is more concerned with riding Lebron’s coattails and twitter pranks than preparing for his illustrious career, a bad sign for the coaching staff and the locker room. The Browns have been winning the games they should lose and oftentimes losing the games they should win, and most importantly “Jacksonville 24, Cleveland 6”, the true ignominity of that defeat shall linger for a long while. The Browns just played the three worst teams in the NFL and they fit right in with them, but they do not fit in with the other three teams in their division. Now the Browns head down to one of the seedier parts of Kentucky to play the Evil Bungles in THE CURSE of PAUL BROWN STADIUM where the Browns have only won 2 games in the last 42 years. I wish that I had saved my PoTY for this game. Hoyer, Mack, Gordon and Cameron all played really terrific games when the Browns beat the Bungles last year, I doubt they will all have the same success this year. The peerless rise to mediocrity the Browns have enjoyed lately has been due in a large part to turnovers by their defense, fluke plays on special teams, and lucky bounces, not a significantly repeatable trend.
    There are very few positives for this game, except that we shall all receive a reprieve from having to listen to everyone constantly mispronounce the name of the Bungles running back, I am very happy that we shall miss that, but more importantly the Bungles will not miss said running back, his replacement is even better. There is also a well reported quote that Greg Little is taking this game personally. Who is Greg Little? Is he that guy who has 8 touchdowns in 4 years and he is very successfully using his Roberto Duran Hands of Stone to Braylon his way out of the league? He is about as scary as that guy who cannot pronounce Joe. Mr Little has a .142857 chance of scoring against the Browns, it is a good thing that he warned everyone in advance. I hope that I am incorrect, but this should be a double digit loss for the Browns.

  • i will partake of some maction also: Toledo for me tonight.

  • zarathustra

    Finally. . . .some MACtion. I will take:

    Bowling Green +6.5 over Akron

  • p_forever

    of course when you finally do a college all play it’s the buckeyes 🙂 lol. go bucks – i’d love for them to play spoiler this weekend.

  • Petefranklin

    POTY Cowbell ringer…BALL ST. +3
    I was hoping to catch points here but three is a gift from the movers and shakers in the sports betting industry and not a gift from the oddsmakers like it may appear. You see the early openers on this game had Ball St about a point or point and a half dog. With the line set in that range it gives the oddsmakers flexibility to move it either way without much risk. So some heavy hitters banged the early line up to three. I’m sure a lot of screen followers(guys who hit the game when it is moving) helped with their bets at 2.5. So now the question is who hit this game and what was their intention? Ball St has been getting heavy movement AGAINST them for 4 weeks now, and guess what? That money (a shit ton) was wrong every single time. My suspicions are that there is a math geek saber group syndicate that hasn’t caught on that this Ball St team has turned the corner and is NOT the same team that they were to open the season. This turn around came about when the Freshman QB was made the starter after the Army game (I think). It allowed Ball St’s big tall receivers to have some balls thrown their way which in turn opened up the Cards bread and butter running game lead by Edwards. It looks like the Cards have no shot at the west title but after they win this night time home game the schedule looks promising for them to win out. Plenty of motivation for a team that is feeling good about itself. NIU., well they have been kind of over rated point spread wise all year. Central handled them in Dekalb, eastern put up a fight, and I just don’t think the Huskies have enough firepower to pull away.

    • Petefranklin

      One other thing, Cantor gaming, where I could bet 10 dimes on this game if I desired has moved to 2.5 after moving up to 3. This tells me that CG is on to the unnecessary move to three by most books and feels comfortable taking action on NIU -2.5. That and someone or groups like the Cards at +3 as well as me. I bet it at Stations and was surprised to see that they didn’t go back down to 2.5 like they did last week (2.5 to 2) after I bet it.
      One more thing, the money line has come way down at Cantor as well somewhat suggesting that I won’t need any points at all.
      I don’t like the reverse line movement(majority of bets on Ball St yet line has moved against those bets) that this game has but I’m pretty skeptical on the bets reportedly the books, and have been for years.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    May I please have BGSU +6.5 to start my Virgin Lobsterita?
    And an early Superbowl prediction, Mark “Re-tread” Sanchez leads the Eagles to victory over the Hard Nosed Pittstink Stifflers lead by the rejuvenated William Henry “Tippy” Harrison.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      MSU for the all play too please, because,
      Bosa Bosa Bosa
      We can’t dance
      Cause you’re standing on our feet

      The Sparty Offensive Line must run free!

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Kent too please

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