#CheddarBay wk 10, Broncos at Pats.

All play is Broncos -3 at Pats.  Also considered were Oregon/Stanford, Cocktail party, Auburn/OleMiss, Cards/Cowboys, Ravens/Steelers, and there was serious consideration given to Utah/ASU.

Right so this happened last Sunday.

MBorcas, CapGG, Clay, Me, Frowns, Vince, CLTIL, -- I don't know this guy.

MBorcas, CapGG, Clay, Me, Frowns, Vince, CLTIL, and GG’s buddy Scott who hosts a stellar tailgate.

Too many stories to tell but bullets shouldn’t be too tough:

  • Too many shots with Brosef Saturday night at Little Bar watching two pretty excellent games, OSU/PSU and OleMiss/LSU.  I think, judging from my Touchtunes song history, I played Lightning Hopkins’ Burning Bad Gasoline three times in a row on their jukebox.  I’m sure that was appreciated.
    The trek.

    The trek.

  • Hitthehorns and wifey were in the same hotel but we did not catch up.  Sorry about that HTH.
  • Caught the 92.3 show at Barley Sunday.  Met Fox, Jackson, and Lima.  Early signs that the 603PWR ranks need more tweaks apparent in the Lions/Falcons game.
  • While waiting to rendezvous for trek to the tailgates, bonus appearance from CLTIL!  More Jamison!  I don’t think she planned on doing the trek (judging from the not-really-walking shoes she was sporting),, but she did.
  • Somewhere around one I met Frowns.  You know we’ve been effectively pen pals for over five years, maybe six or seven,, don’t know.  It was really outstanding to meet him (and his pretty and smart g-f Coleen).  Fair to say conversation did not flag.
  • Screen Shot 2014-10-29 at 9.23.35 AM

    Browns games transcend politics.

    Rounded up the posse which included Vince, Dubbytheone and g-f, CLTIL, Frowns and g-f, me… we lost Brosef somewhere… and headed to the Borcas tailgate at Burke.  Dave makes a fine fried ravioli and and Matt is just a cool, still-waters-run-deep sort of persona.1 I’m pretty sure I was life-coaching Matt on the need to take some theatre classes at school to help with future public speaking demands inherent in a communications career… so I’m already failing any and all field sobriety checks and it’s still 2:30.

  • Shook the hand of Mason Verger from the movie Hannibal.  No wait it was Mike DeWine.  So did Frowns.
  • CapGG’s tailgate is a prime location and I don’t mean the lake view.  Note the outhouses in the pic above.  Those are gold.  Meet Cheddar Clay.  More shots.
  • IMG_6082

    Raiders fam from Rochester.

    Here’s who I sat next to.  I may or may not have had a power nap in the third quarter.

  • Walk to Map Room, hook up with the Frowns and Dubby couples and dinner and conversation in Ohio City… something Market.  Pierogies.  And hotel.2
  • Then brunch with WFNYCraig out in Chagrin (Corky and Lennys) on my way out.
  • Did not make it to the Grown and Sexy Lounge in Lorain.  Next time.

So that was a full and enriching weekend.  I’ll do that again.  Really really great to meet all of you.

Late lines
  • Wisconsin at Rutgers
  • CMU at EMU
  • UAB at FAU
  • Texas at TTU

Also for anyone keeping score, the 603PWR ranks crapped the bed last week.  Five and ten including misses on the two best bets.  Most indicative of the need for review was the epic fail on the Bears/Pats pick.  I have not given up on the premise,,, but I think the sample need to be, say, only the last four games.  No,,, this can still work…

GDE Error: Error retrieving file - if necessary turn off error checking (404:Not Found)

  1. A favorite Borcas story.  When I got the tweet from Kelly Kanicki, “Grampa?” which kicked off the imperative to change URLs and twitter handles,,, while I’m sweating out how best to manage this delicate matter,,, “This tweet has been favorited by Matt Borcas” comes through.  Which was pretty hilarious to me at the moment. [back]
  2. The Hampton Inn was much better than the two and half star rating it has on Priceline.  Was terrific. [back]

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  • this week’s cloud.

  • Giants for me tonight, please. Thanks.

  • Matt Borcas

    Essay: Colts -3.5 over Giants
    Entering this week, the Colts led the NFL in covers (with six). Moreover, Luck is generally awesome at night, T-Rich’s hamstring injury will mean more opportunities for Ahmad Bradshaw (obviously a net gain for the Colts offense), and Dwayne Allen is about as sure of a red zone target as there is in football. Meanwhile, all of the Giants’ three wins have come against awful teams, and Rashad Jenning’s absence makes their offense especially one dimensional. And even if DRC plays, he won’t be 100%, thus opening things up for Luck, Hilton, Wayne, et al. Admittedly, I’m always a bit hesitant to pick teams coming off a bye week, but when you’re an objectively non-good team, I’m not sure how helpful the extra preparation time is anyway.

  • PJD19

    Ravens pk **Essay**

    This is a huge game in a tight AFC north race and a great rivalry. Tempting to roll with the Steelers at home after that huge win over Indy last week, but I’m taking the other side. Both teams are going to struggle to defend the pass in this one with the Steelers getting poor play from Cortez Allen and the Ravens dealing with injuries. The Ravens are a more well rounded squad and I expect them to get after Big Ben and create some turnovers that end up being the difference.

  • bupalos

    Let’s get ne tonight. Just more likable

  • PJD19

    St. Louis
    Seattle
    Denver

  • thatsfine

    Just remembered kickoff is at 4.25ET.
    Broncos -3

  • Matt Borcas

    Ole Miss (loss)
    Cardinals +4.5 over Cowboys
    Chiefs -9.5 over Jets
    Pats +3 over Broncos
    Browns -6.5 over Bucs

  • bupalos

    Friends and cheddarmates, once again it is I, REKNOWNED BUPALOS that comes on humbly bended knee to beg and plead with you to mend your wickedness. But it dawns on me that the problem here may not be one of will, but rather understanding. And it may be that yet another harangue will do nothing but further harden your ossified souls. So let’s try another approach.

    Ladies and gentlemen of the bay, the universe owes you nothing. Meditate upon this aphorism, and you will grow wise like the bupalos. Sometimes it gives, and sometimes it takes, but it never owes.

    And when you are owed nothing, you are a rich man or woman indeed, and then will understand why it is that the San Diego chargers are fated to beat the Miami dolphins.

    Thus endeth the essay, for it nooneth.

    Also cmfb, because cmfb.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      You could certainly use CMFB bupa, hopefully it will stabilize your voltage.

  • HitTheHorns

    **Essay** Dolphins -2: taking my week off from writing a paragraph.

    Patriots +3

  • Andy Rhode

    Philly -2
    St.. Louis +10 (Essay)
    Denver -3
    Jacksonville +11
    San Diego +2

    • Andy Rhode

      Despite getting wrecked last week by the Chiefs, I think St. Louis puts up a good showing on the road this week. Austin Davis has proven to bounce back. Everything is stacked against St Louis, especially with Jake Long out for the season. But San Fran is barely deserving of respect right now and rumors continue to swirl that the players are sick of Harbaugh.

      No doubt the Rams have their work cut out for them -even covering 10 could be a reach – but I have some Austin Davis faith that he’ll lead something good down in the Bay Area.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts week 10 con’t:

    Kansas City -9.5
    Miami -2
    Denver -3 AllPlay

    • DQuatts

      Please remove Kansas City -9.5 and add:

      Oakland +15. This team is actually getting better…

      My money pick will be Giants +3.5 tomorrow night. Essay on its way. Thank you!

      • DQuatts

        And my reasoning behind the Giants +3.5 tonight for my essay:

        Monday night….at home….coming off a bye week. This is a perfect formula for the Giants to get back on track. They have struggled with some key injuries, they have lost some tight games, they have been blown out. And crazy enough, a win tonight puts them right back in the playoff hunt and only a couple games out of the division lead. This is a must win for the GMEN. On the other side, the colts would like to forget about the 51 they gave up in Pittsburgh last week. They seem to be cruising along in their very weak division and have no sense of urgency to take ownership of their playoff push. Halfway through the season, the colts are trending in the wrong direction. I think they struggle tonight and I feel the Giants win this game outright. I’ll take the points at home.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Cardinals +4.5
    Giants +3.5

    Chiefs -9.5
    Patriots (All Play)
    49ers -10 (Essay)

    9ers coming off the bye to play a terrible Rams team at home. The last time the 9ers played they got their asses kicked on the road in Denver. 9ers are sitting at 4-3 and need to keep winning as they know the Seahawks have the Raiders at home. 9ers will move the ball at will and keep their foot on the gas. Rams will score some points, but they don’t have the fire power to keep up. The game will get away from the Rams much like it did last week against the Chiefs. On a side note, I am back in Cleveland right now, so heading the the game tomorrow. Hope they don’t let us down. Not holding my breath.

  • Tim Butler

    Utah +5.5

    • Tim Butler

      VIKES -2.5 over redskins
      jets +9.5 over CHIEFS

      jags +11 over BENGALS
      AP: broncos -3 over PATRIOTS
      ESSAY: cards +4.5 over COWBOYS

      I feel a little dirty stealing these 4 points in a game that is currently a pick, but seeing as how I only made 4 picks last week and none of them were an essay, I need all the advantages I can get. Brandon Weeden is starting at QB for the Cowboys, and the Cardinals have the 3rd most interceptions in the league (despite not being a very good pass def). Carson Palmer is undefeated this season, and the Cowboys don’t really have much of a home field advantage playing in the tourist attraction that is AT&T stadium. Give me the cardinals please.

  • clayII

    Arizona St (+6.5) / UCLA
    Oregon St (-3) / Cal

  • Andy Rhode

    ASU -5.5

  • FTCMikeD

    NFL picks:
    Cardinals +4.5 over @Cowboys
    AP: @Patriots +3 over Broncos
    *****Ravens pk over @Steelers

    The Ravens have got to be pissed after their loss at Cincinnati last week. The Steelers should be riding high after their win against the Colts. That combination should mean the Ravens come out looking a little sharper for this match-up. On paper the stats would indicate that these 2 teams are evenly matched. I don’t think that’s the case though. The Steelers have been far from consistent. They may have looked decent in their last 2 weeks after getting trounced by the Browns but I think that is temporary. The Ravens have looked more consistent throughout the season. The Ravens have to been thinking that they cannot drop back to back division games. The 2 offenses seem to be evenly matched, but I would give the defensive edge to the Ravens, and that is why I think they will win on Sunday night.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Browns -6.5 Bucs
    Bengals -11 Jags
    Cardinals +4.5 Cowboys
    (AP) Broncos-3 Pats
    Jets +9.5 Chiefs**
    **agree with Whalen here, the Jets are a mess but not a 9.5 NFL points mess. Aside from their QB woes, the Jets do have some bright spots. Guys will run through walls for Rex, that plus their pride will keep this within a TD or so. The important side of the ball, as Acto would say, shuts down the run better than anyone. This is a lot of points to get in the NFL, and cannot help but root for an underdog that gave formidable teams like NE and GB a run for their money.

  • bupalos

    Praise be to my (re) tardiness. That Heisenberg guy is an absolute punk-ass. I can’t believe anyone thinks he’s a prospect type.

    Let’s dribble in another oneser with ‘Zona and we’ll get up early tomorrow for a big bad essay.

    d

    • actovegin1armstrong

      You are the Sofa King bupa.

  • Matt Borcas

    Ole Miss -2.5 over Auburn

  • oxr

    Where would I be without college games that kick off late? Not going to touch Ducks/Tree so I will say… UCLA -6.5 over Arizona.

    • oxr

      I didn’t realize until late last night that I was picking the #22 ranked team as a favorite over the #12 ranked team. It was a pleasant surprise this morning to discover that apparently college rankings are a bunch of nonsense. Anyway, to the pros:

      All-Play Broncos -3 over Patriots – I shy away from picking games where I have a rooting interest (Ducks, Broncos) but am slowly getting over the infantile practice of always picking against your teams (as favorites) so that you’ll have something to be happy about either way.

      Colts -3.5 over Giants
      Chiefs -9.5 over Jets
      Cardinals +4.5 over Cowboys

      Eagles -2 over Texans – Tough week with all the double digit lines, as my go-to squads in Oakland and Jacksonville seem to have finally been acknowledged by the betting public as terrible. On the other hand, the Philly game looks a little undervalued at two points, perhaps because the Eagles are coming off a close loss to a good team while the Texans are coming off a commanding win over the also-crappy Titans. It’s a #6-vs-#22 matchup in DVOA, which isn’t a bad sign. The Eagles’ tough games have coincided with a raft of O-line injuries from which they are beginning to recover, with their starting center hopefully back today. Football Outsiders reckons the Eagles have the best special teams in the league, so hopefully Foles can have some short fields with which to work. Even though they’re in Houston, and JJ Watt is a game-altering monster of a man, I’m quite surprised to see this at less than a field goal.

      • shoseph

        Seeing how I made four similar picks to a much better performing bettor (top 10 vs. my place in the bottom 10), I have a good feeling about my picks. However, now that I’ve noticed this similarity, this means we’re both doomed.

        • oxr

          And it was all looking so promising until Nick Foles threw a pick-6 and then got injured.

  • shoseph

    Let’s start this off with:

    Mississippi St. (-10.5) vs. Arkansas

    • shoseph

      Well, that went well… anyway, here’s the rest of the picks:

      Cardinals (+4.5) vs. Cowboys
      Eagles (-2) vs. Texans
      Chargers (+2) vs. Dolphins
      AP: Broncos (-3) vs. Patriots
      Essay: Colts (-3.5) vs. Giants

      Essay to come later.

      • shoseph

        Essay: Colts (-3.5) vs. Giants:

        Look, I picked the Colts last week and that turned out to be disastrous. I didn’t quite expect Ben Roethlisberger to achieve his final form and destroy all that came before him. This week, there’s a slight possibility that Eli Manning may do the same. While he’s often terrible and commonly suffers a weekly bout of Manning-face, he is known to come out and put on a great performance from time to time. However, I don’t think that time is now against the Colts. Both teams are coming off of tough losses, but I think the numbers swing in Indianapolis’s favor.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Fsu (winner)
    2 Arizona +6.5
    3 NCST +3.5
    4 All Play: Pats +3

    Be back with more and Essay later

    • Lucy Lawrence

      5. Pitt pk
      6. Essay SF -10
      Great matchups for SF & Kaepernick is 3-0 w/6 TDs & no INTs lifetime against STL who lost LT Long & WR Quick. After watching the SF Giants win the WS while they were on their bye I look for SF to bounce back and win big at home this week. Plus this pick helps my degenerate self watch the 4pm games and have an interest!

  • ‘Twas the day after Halloween, and all through the streets,
    Not a creature was lurking, no shrill “trick or treats,”
    Brews had been left, half-consumed, without care,
    In favor of bars and the cocktails there,

    The hungover were passed out, snoring in bed,
    In denial of the pain, soon to be in their head,
    And Nick in his flannel, and I in my yoga pants,
    Had just woken up, and I think there’s a chance,

    When I look at the Cheddar scoreboard, my heart it does patter,
    I used to be above the playoff line, now what was the matter?
    Away to my laptop, I turned on the power,
    Tore open my browser; I could no longer cower,

    The spreads on the PDF of cheddar bay, week ten,
    Gave the promise of upsets and winning again,
    When what to me skimming eyes shall appear,
    The opportunity to take an underdog Mountaineer.

    Kevin White, their receiver, so nimble and fast,
    The mountaineer fans are their own crew and cast,
    After taking down Baylor, I can feel their yearning,
    Victory will be theirs and couches will be burning,

    Safety Karl Joseph said “enough is enough,
    Our defense can handle Boykin, we’re rough,
    This is week we’ll get the respect we are due,
    We held of Bears, just like we will TCU.”

    **Essay** WVU +5.5 vs. TCU
    **All Play** Broncos -3 vs. Pats – Because I have vowed to never pick against Peyton Manning
    Indiana +7 vs. Michigan
    Houston +9.5 vs. South Florida
    Missouri -6.5 vs. Kentucky
    Texans +2 vs. Eagles

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Bravo!
      As you neared the end of your masterpiece I was worried that you would leave out the couches aflame. I would try to end this poetically as well, but it would most assuredly be lame.

  • Ebola wedding weekend! So this is going to have to be quick.

    5 NFL picks: Broncos, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bucs, and Giants.

    1 NCAA pick: Utah. (Does anyone know why this line has moved 4 points? Injury? What? Anyway, whatever.

    I’m having a really hard time deciding what the Pick of the Week is here. I’m torn between Cowboys, Chiefs, and Pats.

    1) Cowboys: The Cards are due for a comedown this week, much like the Cowboys were on Monday Night. Folks are overinfluenced by the MNF embarrassment to Chips. This is too many points.

    2) Chiefs: Are people not remembering what a horrendous quarterback Michael Vick is now that he can’t run anymore? You have a franchise in complete disarray, a head coach on the hot seat, and they’re pinning their hopes to Vick now? Good gravy. There was a reason Geno was the starter, and it wasn’t because he was a good NFL quarterback. I don’t know how the Jets are going to move the ball tomorrow. The Jets D won’t shut the Chiefs down. I don’t love the Chiefs and I hate playing big favorites but the public is split on this one I see 40 point blowout potential here.

    3) Broncos: I don’t see a good reason to expect this game will be much different than last year’s AFC title game, if not worse for the Pats. This is going to be the only game I’ll have any chance of watching which makes me want to make it my Pick of the Week it but I think I’ve talked myself into the Chiefs above so I’ll go with that for now.

    Pick of the Week: Chiefs unless otherwise notified. Thanks and good luck to everyone.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Will an Ebola Wedding be all that different? Almost every wedding and following reception I have attended ended with projectile vomiting anyway.

    • Make the Cowboys my essay after all. Mostly because I hate laying so many points in the NFL but also more comfortable with so much of the public on the Cardinals here. If Chips can do it so can Weeds.

  • mo_by_dick

    Came home from Lebronmania downtown on Thursday to written but unsubmitted picks that turned out to be winners so I hope I can keep it going when the points count.

    UNM Lobos +1 for me today, per TA’s essay, and my having just given Albuquerque breakfast recommendations to my barber.

    • mo_by_dick

      Broncos -3
      Browns -6.5
      Eagles -2
      Colts -3.5

      ***Ravens PK (no-essay essay)

  • CLEinMPLS

    Ole Miss -2.5

  • bupalos

    Chiming in with a most un-Bupalian essay in most un-Bupalian fashion. I’ll reserve my moral instruction for my standard Sunday plays but as for the 3-point point-grubbing thing I cast my lot with these here knitting lions of Penn State this afternoon. Heisenberg may not have cooked up his best batch against Ohio State, but I think the recipe will be marginally more successful against the big dumb turtles. And ‘marginally’ should be more than enough. Maryland’s “big play” offense turns out to be mostly predicated on “big breakdowns” from “bad defenses,” and when they faced a good one in Wisconsin it was as ugly as you could hope. Penn State may not have much, but they do have competence on that side of the ball, and positive Chi-flow from their solid outing against the Bucks. Book 3 points here for Bupalos and I’ll come back to scream at you all later.

    Penn State -3

    • ennnnhh. have to book this for a single point. just too close to kickoff for an essay. kk?

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Single point if bupa wins.
        Three points if bupa loses.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      ” but they do have competence on that side of the ball”
      It is officially known as The Important Side of the Ball.

  • DUKE +3.5

    WISCONSIN -13.5

    • WASHINGTON HUSKIES -3.5. I think the Buffaloes used all their fuel last week.

      STEELERS PICK.

      PATRIOTS +3. Pats haven’t lost at home. I think it comes down to a late Peyton interception.

      CHARLIE MUNGER MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:

      JETS +9.5.
      To be quite honest, I can’t imagine a world run by Rex Ryan that isn’t constantly heated and contentious to some degree. And it’s not that I think Vick is any good these days, because he’s not, but he’s a hell of a lot more confident than Geno. And that matters. I realize how tough it is to play at KC, because I’ve seen a few games at Arrowhead. But when you look at the NFL, even the really bad teams come close to winning a number of times during the season. The Jets took New England to the wire a few weeks ago on the road, it took a freak play by the Packers to beat them at Lambeau in week 2, and I think this is one of those close games. Jets lose. but by less than 10.

  • Its Only Money

    Nothing is working well so here we go this week:

    UCF -11.5 @ UCONN
    Duke +3.5 @ Piit (This team lost to Akron at home)
    FIU +5.5 v Rice (I’m jumping on the FIU bandwagon)
    Kansas State -14 v Oklahoma State

    All Play: New England -3 V Denver

    Essay:
    Cleveland -6.5 v Tampa Bay
    The Browns really haven’t shown much of anything the past two weeks to make you think that they should be a TD favorite to anyone in the league right now. They were lucky that Whitner came up and made a huge hit to jar the ball loose and Haden was right there to scoop it up. Browns fan were very close to getting to see a glimpse of what Manziel might be able to do. That play ignited the entire team and brought them out of a 6 quarter funk. The offense went on to score two TDs although neither were very long sustained drives. Hoyer has to know that another performance like the last couple just aren’t going to cut it. The schedule gets much tougher after this week for the Browns. A loss here and another poor performance does not bode well for his future as a starter in the league. I think, well I guess hope is the better way to put it, he knows that and will respond with a good performance. The defense should be able to shut the Bucs down, the DBs will get tested but seem to be improving. Gilbert has played well the last two weeks and is gaining confidence. This pick is much more about hope than good handicapping. I can’t take a third lackluster performance from our offense in person in 15 days.

  • FTCMikeD

    Rest of College picks
    @WVU +5.5 over TCU
    @App St -10 over GA St

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Auburn +2.5 Ole Miss

  • HitTheHorns

    hit the horns:

    New Mexico +1

    Pitt -3.5

    Florida +12.5

    New York Jets +9.5

    two more picks to go.

  • squeekycleen

    Already started with loser on Lville. The rest:

    Essay: Cannot seem to get any traction this year, either in this contest or in real life plays. Knew it would be a slog after last year’s feeding frenzy. Fortunately, have been able to hover around even and maybe the finale of the season will be good. Or it could be an abject disaster. Who knows. For this week’s essay, will head to Ann Arbor where absolutely pathetic Michigan is laying near a TD against Indiana. Frankly, I have no idea how Michigan covers this number. They can’t move the ball, they are banged up, and everyone hates each other. Perhaps firing Brandon may increase morale, but for the football team specifically, I’m not sure it will as it should pretty much seal up the fat man’s fate. Thus, on the surface, I can’t see many (any?) reasons to back Michigan in this state, but I’ll give them a try for this week’s essay versus an Indiana team that can score, but also gives up way too many, perhaps what Michigan’s struggling offense needs. Michigan for the essay.

    Others:
    Tennessee Volunteers
    Maryland Terapins
    UCLA Bruins
    All play: Denver Broncos

    Already lost: Louisville Cardinals

    Good luck everyone.

  • at Army +3.5 AFA
    at PSU -3 UMD
    ECU -7 at Temple
    1. WMU -6.5 at MiamiO
    2. **at AppySt -10 GaSt Something is up with the line move from -7.5 to current -13.
    3. ESSAY BYU -3 at MTSU See below.
    6. UGA -12.5 Fla For all the Gurley talk, UGA is still #11 this freshman Nick Chubb got 143 at Mizzou and 202 yds at Ark. Those are Gurley-type numbers and those are still SEC defenses right? As always, it’s all about the o-line.
    USC -7 at Wazzu
    at Vandy -7 ODU
    *at FAU -4.5 UAB UAB questionable with a bad arm. Even if he plays,, arm.
    Ark +10.5 at MissySt
    at SCAR -7 Tenn
    at OSU -28.5 Ill
    4. **at UTEP -7 USM UTEP win an really nice shutout on UTSA last week.
    at Nev -3.5 SSU
    Utah +5.5 at ASU
    *Cards +4.5 at Cowboys
    Jags +11 at Bengals
    at Dolphins -2 Chargers
    *Skins +2.5 at Vikes
    5. Broncos -3 at Pats

    Frowns doesnt like my methodology in picking this year and I have to say I’m not that pleased with it either. Says it’s too shotgun. Says he focuses on breaking down games he knows he’ll be watching. It makes sense… but I never know what I’ll be watching. TBH, I’d choose to watch the UTEP/USM game but I don’t think it’ll be on. But I can zero in on the games most interesting to me. There are three: AppySt/GaSt, FAU/UAB, UTEP/USM. I’ll just pull the thread on each and see which has the most interest (to me).

    a) AppySt/GaSt: NCAA ranks AppySt offense ~#30 vs GaSt def ~#120. GaSt off ~#50 vs AppySt def ~#70. AppySt rush offense is ~#20 and GSU is still right about the worst in run D. Home game in Boone. They’re getting 25,000 to their home games which has got to be a SunBelt leader. Gonna be gusty with a chance of snow. No huge o-line edge for either. AppySt has a 6-2/200 true freshman QB who shows signs of improvement.

    b) FAU/UAB: FAU O, 92; UAB D, 73 //UAB O, 45; FAU D 114. And I like FAU here so I need to just walk away from this pick now.

    c) UTEP/USM: UTEP O 91; USM D, 109 // USM O, 87; UTEP D 60. It’s a hike to ElPaso. I like UTEP’s journeyman Buffalo, NY o-lineman with a coaching history from the Chris Peterson/Mike Tomlin tree. Just love Sean Kugler’s story and their beat down of UTSA last week (34-0 as two TD dogs) shows he’s got them moving in the right direction. A let down this week is a possibility but that’s where Kugler’s coaching kicks in. Everybody holla: LUNCHPAIL. USM’s HC Todd Monken was OkSt’s OC for two years and the Jags QB/WR before that… NOT LUNCHPAIL. No edges on the line matchups. They actually got 32,000 to the Sun Bowl for the NMST game; 35,000 for TTU. So people show up. UTEP has a couple ranked draft prospects at tight end and the 17th ranked QB in Jameill “insert-horrible-Bermanism-here” Showers. USM is pretty pass-oriented #27; UTEP is #20 in pass yds allowed albeit with little pass rush (~#110 in sacks). Offensively UTEP likes to run (220+/gm) and USM gives up over 200 rush yds/game.

    I’m not loving any of these essays and here is where I would just go YOLO and take UTEP -7. But let’s press on. Kinda like Ark +10.5 at MissySt but this is like their first road game since 2012.. pass. Such a let down week for PSU.. pass. WMU is like undefeated ATS but I got burned by MiamiO’s kooky over-enthusiastic HC in the Marshall game.. wait here’s one that shows promise:

    d.) BYU -3 at MTSU. I love Taysom Hill as much as everyone and BYU is definitely a different team without him getting out-classed by classy teams (USU, UCF, Nev, Boise are all bowl teams). But they still sport a Wisconsin-class o-line and MTSU’s depth chart is showing me 200 pound edge linebackers. MTSU likes to run the ball (#29) but BYU is also a Wisconsin class run D (#20). MTSU has not the Boise offense schemes nor a Cody Fajardo at QB. BYU has two top 200 NFL draft prospect anchoring their d-line; MTSU has no prospective Sunday players. Bronco Mendenhall is a nice man and good coach. I don’t know Rick Stockstill from MTSU although he is from Sidney, OH. There were 18,000 in Murfreesboro last week so if anything the home field could go to BYU because you know there are Cougar fans are everywhere,, quiet, watching, waiting, not having caffeine… Ok, this finally feels right for the essay.

  • AmplifiedEsq

    1) App. St. -10 *Essay*
    2) Broncos -3 *All-Play*
    3) South Carolina -7
    4) Cleveland -6.5
    5) Pittsburgh. pk.
    6) Indianapolis -3.5

    *ESSAY* – Haven’t looked at the results from last week, nor the updated standings. Pretty sure I did not get one game right last week… But I also refused to look at what I picked cause I didn’t want to verify my belief. The goal this week is to turn it around and look at the updated rankings come Tuesday and hope for better. As for why I picked this game… I like App. St., Boone, NC is great, and, quite frankly, I have no other reason to pick them. The only game I’ve watched of them this year is the pounding Michigan put on them… Michigan… Yet, I’m not deterred. I’d like to think they’re starting to adjust to their first season in FBS by now and when in doubt… Go with Yosef. Also, an App. State hoodie is the warmest thing I moved to Michigan with, so I figure while I’m out sporting it shopping for some winter gear I should pick them (clearly a sign).

    • boone is great. gonna be chilly and they’ll still have a full house.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    FSU -3.5 (win)
    All play: Den -3 tough game to pick but I just think Peyton is unstoppable. But bill and Brady own Peyton… True when the patriots had Rodney Harrison bruschi and a great defense, but rule changes and personnel changes make Sunday a different story. Only thing that can beat Peyton is peyton himself.

    SD +2 tough game for rivers coming across the country, but sd is the better team and desperate for a W. I like sd getting the win and righting the ship

    Cle -6.5 what can I say I’m a homer and the Browns have been covering. I expect the run game to be much improved with another week of practice and bulletin board material with all the criticism of how we can’t run. Also the bucs have already raised the white flag trading some key players. Brows a different team at home and win by 10

    Purdue -23.5 honestly just like what others have said and I don’t like another nfl game.

    Baltimore pk essay
    I spit out my coffee and I wasn’t even drinking any when I saw this line. This line is outrageous and I love it. Perfect spot Baltimore loses a tough one to cincy at home pit destroys the colts on national tv. Line goes fro bal -3 to pick. Anyway as far as the game goes bal has two division losses and can not lose agai if they want to take the division. They will not allow Big Ben to get comfortable and they will bump we at the line to disrupt timing. I believe the Ravens are the class of the AFC north and Pittsburgh is the worst team in the division. Gonna be a long day for Big Ben and the boys Ravens by 14

  • trashycamaro

    TRIGGER WARNING FOR BROWNS FANS. This post contains graphic images that may produce feelings of rage.

    1. AP: Pats +3 over Denver. Sweet, I get the Pats as a home dog. I like it. But I would like it more if it was not against this juggernaut Broncos team.

    2. College: WKU +6.5 over LaTech. So I have been riding the Hilltoppers ever since that fateful day when I picked a technically-it-is-an-SEC-team Kentucky team over them last year. They have been quite good to me, but I cannot remember the last time I got points with them against another non-power conference team. Score! (Looked to start fading Mississippi State, but +10.5 is not enough for Arkansas).

    3. Essay Arizona +4.5 over Dallas . Rough week for the NFL. Teams I really like are either off (Packers) or play each other (Broncos/Pats, ‘Phins/Chargers) or just got blown out and I don’t know how they will react (Indy) against a high variance team (is there a team that is more likely to come out of nowhere to dominate a good team than the Giants?). I don’t trust Philly/Nick Foles and I really don’t want to get involved with RGIII (is he going to be full speed with DSJ, Pierre and Reed, or is he going to be hesitant, or is Colt McCoy going to have to play thanks to an ill-advised slide?). I don’t trust my massive underdogs with an essay and I really don’t want a toss up game in this slot.

    So… Give me a Cards d that has Calais Campbell back and has been indefatigable in the face of injury after injury after injury. Give me Ellington doing silly things, Carson Palmer being able to heave the ball to Floyd, Fitz, and Brown and – most importantly – give me a defensive line that is top 5 against the run per carry and will be hitting a 30+ y/o QB that has a bad back. And, oh please, give me the team, with points, that gets to play against Brandon Weeden. Please. Please. Please. http://cdn.hiphopwired.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Brandon-Weeden-Interception-GIF.gif

    4. NYJ +9.5 over KC. Now that’s a Jets line I can get behind.

    5. Raiders +15 over Seattle That’s a lot of points for a 4-3 team, even against an 0-6 team. nd the truth is, the Seahawks have not played that much better than their record (i.e. they are not the Broncos).

    6. Baltimore PK over Pittsburgh

  • PJD19

    Auburn +2.5

  • p_forever

    baylor -35.5 kansas
    purdue +23.5 nebraska
    auburn +2.5 ole miss***
    miss st. -10.5 arkansas
    wisc -13.5 rutgers
    tom brady +3 everybody else

    i was really shocked that auburn was getting points this
    weekend. i’m just going to consider it the playoff selection committee’s gift to me, because I think maybe people are paying more attention than they should to the fact that ole miss retained a top 4 spot (and because they super didn’t give me any other gifts or even deserved recognition). I mean – this game is almost a bad action situation. you know how last night we could all breathe a sigh of relief because the lebron doppelganger that played so terribly opening night was replaced with the real lebron against the bulls? mississippi fans are feeling that in reverse as the efficient, consistent, confident bo wallace they came to know earlier this year returns to the actual, real deal, good but deeply flawed qb that he actually is.

    and last week’s loss to LSU wasn’t even bo wallace’s fault – it was actually the vaunted ole miss defense, which looked really average allowing LSU to literally march down the field (12 runs in a row!!!) on its final drive to score a go ahead touchdown. Real bo has no chance under those sorts of conditions.

    it almost doesn’t matter who ole miss plays this weekend – they would be in trouble no matter what. I kind of hate auburn so I’m sad they will be the team to capitalize on the situation, but not sad enough not to take the tigers and the points.

  • thatsfine

    WMU -6.5
    EMU +14.5
    Nevada -3.5
    New Mexico +1
    Houston -9.5 / @USF – essay
    I had the displeasure of watching the Cougars take down my Temple essay two weeks ago in brutal fashion, but at least I learned something. The catalyst for Houston’s recent improvement is QB Greg Ward Jr. who is 2-0 since taking over for John O’Korn. The sophomore is a dual threat QB, but I’d say he’s a QB first and athlete second, as evidenced by his 29/33 2TD performance against Temple. He’s a converted WR and he can run. He actually took over mid-game against UCF and had a chance to win the game but fumbled with his arms outstretched at the goal line. That was tough, but he bounced back nicely leading wins against Memphis and Temple. USF has their own QB issues. They benched their starter last week and are (reportedly) still undecided as of today on who’s starting this weekend. The nod will probably go to Junior Steven Bench. Whoever it is has to deal with Houston’s nationally 10th ranked scoring defense. Coming off a bye week, this is fully Greg Ward Jr’s offense now, and I think Houston’s revitalized offense finds plenty of space and exploits USF’s 92nd ranked defense for the win and cover.
    NFL/All-play to follow

  • chuckycrater

    OK, I’m just going to rush through these this week. At this point in the season I have no chance of winning anything except a weekly prize, which I am not ruling out because I might pull another random LOBSTERFEST out of my ass. Think about that. I’m in 44th place and yet I had a perfect week. That is nearly impossible.

    Maryland +3 vs. Penn State
    West Virginia +5.5 vs. TCU (I really want TCU to win, but the line is down to like 3 now so grabbing the value)
    Louisiana Tech -6.5 vs. Western Kentucky (LOOK AT WHAT THIS GODDAMN CONTEST HAS DONE TO ME. I AM BACKING SKIP HOLTZ.)
    Browns -6.5 vs. Bucs
    ALL PLAY: Patriots +3 vs. Broncos

    ESSAY: Cardinals +4.5 vs. Cowboys

    Whether Tony Romo starts on Sunday or not, Washington exposed Dallas on Monday night because they can’t handle blitzes, and Arizona loves to come after the QB hard. I’m still not actually watching NFL games, but I read where on the last play of the Eagles game last week, the Cardinals sent a 7-man rush at Nick Foles and he ended up fluttering the would-be game winner out of bounds. No fear at all in that defense. If Romo plays, he’ll be scared to death of taking another big hit. if Weeden plays, well he just sucks as many of you in this contest well know. Take the points.

    • chuckycrater

      P.S. If K-State hadn’t been exactly -14 I would have gone to the well there for the third week running. I think this is the last week of the good times for EMAW before TCU wrecks them next Saturday.

    • p_forever

      i feel your backing of skip will not go unrewarded.

      • chuckycrater

        it’s my costanza move

  • jdoepke

    I’m making the trek to Cleveland tomorrow so if any of you happen to be near Fat Heads in North Olmsted, swing on by. I’ll be the guy screaming at the TV and sucking down Spooky Tooths…

    Not a lot of time went into these but here we go:

    TCU -5.5
    Auburn +2.5
    Oregon -8
    Chargers +2
    Pats +3 (AP)

    Temple +7 (Essay)
    This type of game backfired on me last week and I could regret it yet again but this line makes absolutely no sense. ECU is killing people and Temple isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. 75% of public on ECU and why not? I will go the other way. ECU 33 Temple 28

  • Capitalgg

    Week 10

    Some interesting things in Mike B.’s weekly here.

    1. That’s quite a hike for a Sunday morning. Really quite an ambitious and impressive trek to “do it all” in a fairly limited amount of time. Color me impressed.
    2. Great pic of my boss with Frownie. He seems to be doing a great job of campaigning at sporting events. I ran into him at an OSU game earlier this season.
    3. Thanks for stopping by the tailgate. You are all invited back any time. I was a bit fuzzy by the time you all showed up, but it was great to see you all.
    4. I’m thankful the game was a 3 quarter snoozer, because I don’t remember much that happened before the 4th quarter.

    Anyway, let’s not discuss how my picks have been going because if you’ve been doing anything but fading me recently you now have to work twice as hard to make your mortgage payment. Needless to say, it all turns around this week!

    All-play: Patriots +3 v. Broncos: Manning in the cold in a game that means more to the Pats. Still disappointed that this is the all-play and not the CFB elimination game in OXford, MS.

    1) North Carolina +17 @ Miami: Too many points for a UNC team that can score.
    2) Air Force -3.5 @ Army: The Air Force team that beat Navy by 2 scores and I’m giving less than 7?
    3) Jaguars +11 @ Bengals: Too many points for a reasonably good Jags D in a huge letdown spot for Cincy.
    4) Virginia Tech -3 v. BC: VT finally does something.

    Arizona State -5.5 over Utah. Utah is a nice team, but have really been playing above their level. Playing at home is a huge advantage for them. Unfortunately, they travel this week to Tempe and face a more talented Sun Devil team. This feels like a 2 score deal this week because of the affore mentioned home-field advantage and AzSt’s better talent. Should be fun to follow my essay when I’m unwinding from the Buckeye’s huge blowout of Illinois.

    • in addition to the dog walking and the weekly golf (walk/carry) i’ve made the local beach walk my ‘thing’ since february.. so in spite of appearances to the contrary, i was well prepped for that extended bar crawl.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Highly recommend this tailgate if you like deep fried candy bars and giant bear hugs. (Who doesn’t?)

  • GRRustlers

    Week 10 Picks

    AP – Patriots (+3) over Broncos – You are still dead to me Denver.

    Miami (-17) over UNC – I know who is finally going to beat FSU.

    Kentucky (+6.5) over Missouri – Where does Kentucky finish in the ACC? Why is Kentucky not in the ACC? All this conference movement and no one thought of this for basketball and football reasons?

    Michigan (-7) over Indiana – Because Indiana is worse than Michigan and the AD leaving today means everyone at Michigan knows they are really gone now so they just relax and beat up the Hoosiers.

    NYJ (+9.5) over KC – We all have a gambling soft spot. Vick is mine. Just way too many points for a team that is not half bad if they can just hang on to the ball.

    Essay Pick

    Too tired to look through the archives of Cheddar Bay but I think I am about to do something for only the 2nd time and maybe the 3rd time in 4 years. I love the Browns Sunday. I think that this is the week that OL settles in and starts to regain some measure of success on the ground. The average fan is probably just grasping how good Alex Mack truly is.

    The defense is starting to come together in Cleveland and it’s just a bad spot for a Bucs team. Lovie is cleaning house and getting all of his guys and I view this almost like a first year Mangini meaning I’ll be all over the Bucs down the stretch as he gets young guys to buy in when everyone else is playing out the string. Good god is Mariota going to look good in Tampa.

    This is also the week that we see Manziel. I think Pettine scripted the comments this week because I think they feel pretty good about this game and will find a way to get him in for the 2nd half if they have the game in control. This has absolutely nothing to do with Hoyer but if you think the Browns will go the whole year without trying to take a peek at Manziel in blowouts that is a special kind of crazy. They have to at least see something before figuring out what to do with Hoyer.

    Anyway…Browns big on Sunday.

    Browns (-6.5) over Bucs

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    East Carolina -7

    Iowa -4
    Oregon -8 (essay – skip the actual writing this week)
    Kentucky +6.5
    Redskins +2.5
    Broncos -3

  • The Iron Sheik

    Kansas st
    Arizona
    Miss state ***
    Cal
    Wisconsin
    Pats
    Miss st will make light work of the hogs because they don’t have the weapons to take advantage of issues in State’s secondary. And the Hogs won’t be able to stop Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson. The Bulldogs are 5-2 against the spread this year as well.

  • zarathustra

    Cheddar Bay Week 10

    Cincinnati -4.5 over Tulane (pending)

    Patriots +3 over Broncos
    The greatest qb of his generation as a home dog against the pretender? Playing with revenge after a playoff loss? I’ll take the points but doubt I’ll need them.

    Eagles -2.5 over Texans
    Last week the Eagles faced a damn good Cardinals team without D. Sproles and damn near got it done. Sproles is back this week and it isn’t Carson Palmer and a super bowl contender they face, but Ryan Fitzpatrick and an 8-8 team that are probably feeling a little too good about themselves after stomping the worst team in the league last week.

    UNC +17 over Canes
    When I was looking at lines earlier in the week to filter out what games to consider I passed on this one. The number was so off I assumed there was a major injury that I didn’t know about.  It turns out it is the Canes with the injury–left tackle.  I have to confess that I have been a closet canes fan for a long time and I love Al Golden and think Duke Johnson is great and the defense is improving and Brad Kaya shows a lot of promise. . . .but wtf? 17 points? To this north carolina offense? Way too many points.

    Nevada -3.5 San Diego St
    If this were 3 as it is now in real life this would probably be my essay. I love this damn team. I got conference futures on them last week at +2700 and more than doubled down earlier this week at +2200. They control their own destiny to get to the championship game (at which point I will have the leverage to wager a nice sum on Boise or Colorado St–hopefully Boise though.) The race to win the division begins against the Aztecs. These teams have a recent history of close games so I have some concern about the number, but ultimately the Wolf Pack is the better team with (by far) the best qb in the conference.  Here’s what I anticipate will happen: ugly first quarter. Nevada hands off to Don Jackson a lot and Cody stays in the pocket and starts off cold. By mid-second quarter they will be down two scores and the real Nevada offense will surface and it is the Cody Fajardo Show. He will begin to keep the ball and run for first downs. The passing game will start clicking. They will still be down at half and then everyone should load up on the pack at the half. All of the fucking units. The Cody Show will continue in the second half and the defense which was lackluster in the first half will start making stops and forcing turnovers. 
    This is no attempt at clairvoyance. It is the script template for every damn Nevada game since week three at Arizona and has mostly led to success. They came up just short at Arizona and against the cream of the conference–Boise and Colorado St.  San Diego St is no pushover but they are nowhere near the level of any of those three.
    Moreover, their up and coming young coach….John Carroll alum.

    Utah St -3 over Hawaii
    Last week was homecoming for the Hawaiian high school all-star team. They were pretty jacked up for the first quarter or so until the aforementioned Cody Fajardo Show went on the air. So we have a very bad team that went into halftime of their homecoming game with the lead over a far superior team. Not being accustomed to actually winning games they don’t realize the amount of fight necessary to close out the game. There is no way that most of them weren’t already daydreaming about all of that sweet post-victory homecoming [REDACTED for several violations of cheddar bay decorum and for just generally being in poor taste.] What transpired in the second half had to have been humiliating.  As maybe the only poor soul in America degenerate enough to have streamed the whole thing on my phone unto 4am EDT let me assure it was a complete and total massacre. The final score of the game is no indication of the beating those Hawaii kids took. They are a bad team with bodies that probably hurt like hell all week and just have to be totally demoralized.  (As an aside I wish I would have captured a screen shot of Norm Chow on the sideline as time expired,  shrugging his shoulders with a wan face and ultimately the resigned smile of a man completely detached from the situation. I also just watched his post-game presser. Let me assure you that that is not a man who will be firing up the troops for this one. He knows that his termination is imminent and he cannot fucking wait to get the hell out of there.
    Utah St isn’t great running the ball and will be starting a fourth-string qb, but they are a team that thrives when faced with adversity and are chasing bowl eligibility.

  • FTCMikeD

    I’ll take Cincy -4.5 over @Tulane tonight.

  • Chris Schroeder

    -7 Michigan vs. Indiana
    -1 UNLV vs. New Mexico
    +2 San Diego @ Miami
    -3.5 Indianapolis @ NY Giants
    All Play: -3 Denver @ New England
    Essay: -5.5 Texas Christian @ West Virginia (Taking my week pass on this one)

  • Dave Borcas

    Cincinnati Bearcats -4.5
    Oregon -8
    Ravens pick-em
    Broncos -3 (all play)
    Bengals -11 (essay)
    As most Browns fans I really dislike, hate, despise our division rivals. Over the years I have backed off on that feeling when it comes to the Bengals. As Browns fans we should look to the Bengals as our step brother, oranges haired step brothers if you wish. Our father Paul Brown was forced to leave the house by a whack job of a spouse in Art Modell. Paul Brown, carrying on with his life started a new family, the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton just happens to be the perfect poster child for my take. So every time you see the Bengals imagine them as that step brother that Dad brought into this world, even if you know he loved you more than his step son. As for this week I see the Bengals getting things together. Andy Dalton a hot or cold QB and he I see him having a big game against the Jacksonville defense. As always GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Browns!

  • for FHCF who is having some sort of log in probs –>

    Cincinnati Bearcats -4.5

    I’m not exactly lighting the picking world on fire, and neither of these teams are exactly relevant, but I have followed Tulane for no other reason than degeneracy and boy does Tulane stink. I love it here because I’m not alone; this game went from 3.5 to as high as 6.5. I don’t care who’s playing QB for Cincy. Tulane doesn’t score on anybody. Cincy has played better the last couple weeks after getting away from the likes of OSU and Miami and even Memphis, and I just see this as a gradual beatdown and a 10-20 point win. Work your magic, Tuberbille.

    • the rest of FHCF:
      La monroe
      Indiana
      Missouri
      Patriots
      Tampa bay

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts Week 10:

    I’ll get in the action with –

    Northwestern +4
    Colorado +3.5

  • CLEVTA

    1) Purdue +23.5: such a scrappy team this year. Only lost to ND, MSU & Minnesota by 16, 14, 1. I like what Hazel is doing these days

    2) WVU +5.5: TCU has covered every game this season so vegas is jacking up the line knowing the public will back them no matter the line. WVU is battle tested vs Bama, Baylor and Oklahoma so this game won’t faze them

    3) New Mexico +1 (essay): I absolutely love picking obscure CFB games as my essay. Games that you could only find on a local cable station deep in the desert down the street from Walt White. To heck with Auburn/Ole Miss and the like. UNLV is terrible and should never be favored. I’ve been picking essays lately purely based on the best matchups and it’s been successful of late. New Mexico ranks 9th in rush yds/attempt and just recently got their dual threat QB Gautsche back in the lineup. UNLV rush defense is ranked 117th in yds/att. New Mexico should be able to prevail

    4) Pats +3 (all play)

    5) San Jose +7

    • CLEVTA

      6) Army +3.5

  • Nick

    Tennessee +7 vs South Carolina
    Illinois +28.5 vs Ohio St.
    Broncos -3 vs Pats
    Baltimore pk vs Steelers
    Seattle -15 vs Oakland
    Essay: Browns -6.5 vs Bucs

    Tom Reed wrote a nice piece this week about rookie defensive back K’Waun Williams and how he became a Cleveland Brown. It starts with Browns assistant coach Jeff Hafley, who was the only one to give K’Waun a scholarship coming out of high school. Hafley convinced Pettine and Farmer to bring him in immediately following the draft. Hafley mentored K’Waun at Pittsburgh for one year before Dave Wannsteadt was fired and Hafley went elsewhere. Stories like K’Waun’s
    are a dime a dozen in the NFL and its nice the Browns have one who fits a need. The addition of Williams now means Gilbert doesn’t have to get thrown in the fire and can focus on a few things at a time. It’s not a surprise that Gilbert has played better in recent weeks. Guess where secondary Coach Jeff Hafley coached last year? Tampa Bay. Yes they are running a different scheme this year, but I like having the inside guy, who’s having a great year, on my team. After two weeks of shaky football following an emotional win versus the Steelers with the loss of Alex Mack, it’s time now for the Browns to put together a full game.

    • Nick

      Please good sir, I would like to change my pick from the Broncos to the Pats +3 on behalf of the bad weather they are having up there. I don’t trust Peyton in cold.

  • technivore

    PATRIOTS +3 over Broncos
    NC State +3.5 over SYRACUSE
    WEST VIRGINIA +5.5 over Texas Christian
    MISSOURI -6.5 over Kentucky
    Auburn +2.5 over OLE MISS
    Jaguars +11 over BENGALS**

    ** I’m using my essay bye week on this one.

  • zarathustra

    Cincinnati -4.5 over Tulane
    for one point

  • Dennis Hemingway

    North Carolina +17 over Miami ***
    Broncos -3 over Patriots (All play)
    Louisville +3.5 over Florida St (Already submitted)
    Auburn +2.5 over Ole Miss
    Arkansas +10.5 over Miss St
    Steelers EVEN over Ravens

    *** I’m staying on the UNC band wagon and convinced they will cover once again. As I wrote last week that this team, similar to last season could get on a hot streak after starting the season 2-4. They lost by only 7 points on the road to Notre Dame earlier in the season and can put up points with just about anyone. I’m still not convinced that the Hurricanes are any good and simply beat up on a poor Virginia Tech game last week which happened to be a prime time Thursday night game. This is a noon kick off in Miami which won’t have much hype. So I’ll take the 17 points and think UNC will keep this close.

  • swig

    AP: PATRIOTS +3 o Broncos, if this ends up being a good game, NE is the easy side
    Essay: CARDINALS +4.5 o Cowboys
    3) VIRGINIA TECH -3 o Boston College, attempting to peruse the college lines is slightly painful
    5) Jaguars +11 o BENGALS
    4) Raiders +15 o SEAHAWKS
    6) Rams +10 o 49ERS

    • swig

      I was ready for Arizona to lose their value, not this week, they still are not getting respect. This line would make sense if Dallas had beat up on Washington on Monday without Romo getting hurt. We have Dallas on a short week with either a banged up Romo or Weeden, facing another strong defensive line, and having a worse coach. Worst case scenario this is a close game with the Cardinals in play for the backdoor cover. Big fan of these double digit dogs, but expect to go 2-1 and lack the confidence to fade that one loss.

  • bupalos

    Let me squeeze in on NO tonight

  • Rob

    Since there’s nothing else on tv tonight, I’ll take New Orleans -2.5 for some 1pt cheddar action.

    • Hahaha

    • Rob

      Penn state -3

    • Rob

      AP: DEN -3
      BAL pk
      WAS +2.5
      Essay: ARI +4.5
      The Cards needed some magic last week to pull out the win and cover, but in case nobody’s noticed, this is a pretty damned good football team. Halfway through the season, and I believe their hype more than I do the Cowboys’. The Cowboys seemed determined to run Demarco Murray into the ground (literally?) before the Romo injury, and whether he suits up tomorrow or Weeden does (giggity!), I expect that trend to continue. Never thought I’d say this, but I expect the Cards’ offense to light up the scoreboard with a healthy Carson Palmer behind center. Arizona wins outright, but the points here is a nice cushion to fall back on.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Sorry for the late notice but I would like Louisville +3.5 over Florida St as my first pick.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    Fsu -3.5

  • thatsfine

    Mike, the 603PWR rankings took a beating last week, but props to you for not only devising these, but putting them to a live, public test. That took guts. Obviously, they are still in beta… and if they consistently produce 5-10 results no tweaks are needed. Just take the opposite and watch the money roll in.

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    FSU
    ND
    Boston College

    NFL picks to come

    • p_forever

      your picks tell the tale of 1993 well.

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      Broncos all-play

      Redskins

      ESSAY: Cardinals

      Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden Weeden… Am I at 100 words yet? Well this game was gonna be tough for the Cowboys even with Romo. Surprising how good the Redskins looked against the Cowboys. I’m just not buying the Cowboys, even with Romo, being a top 3 NFL team. DeMarco Murray was stopped up by WAS D pretty well, and I think Cardinals will have all sorts of success by daring Weeden to beat them. The Schadenfraude is going to be unreal for this one.

  • Peter Markos

    Notre Dame -14 over Navy
    Ohio State -28.5 over Illinois
    Denver -3 over Patriot Tea baggers
    SF -10 over STL
    KC -9.5 over NYJ
    CLE -6.5 over TB
    ND needs to win big to stay in contention for a play-off spot. This should keep them motivated against a weak team. The Buckeyes have a similar motivation.
    There is no logic on my Denver pic. Just hate. Bellichick cheated and was barely punished. The integrity of the game was compromised. A Super Bowl was compromised. Ask a Steeler fan about losses in championship games and Steelers quotes about the Pats knew plays were coming. Goodell did nothing. I can get past Ray Rice rather easily. Not this. If the football god are good, they will enable Peyton to make Bill, the Rick “the pro business = no ethics” Scott of coaches, very miserable.
    The Jets are hopeless. The Bucs are beyond hope and enable the Browns to reach 5-3. Who would have thunk it? No Josh and 5-3. Not bad. Not great, but not bad.

  • cwonder23

    FSU -3.5 for one Cheddar Point. More to come.

    • cwonder23

      Panthers +2.5 tonight as well.

      • cwonder23

        Full Picks:
        FSU (win)
        Panthers (loss)
        Oregon -8 @ Stanford
        Auburn +2.5 @ Ole Miss
        All Play: Pats +3 vs Broncos
        Essay: Duke +4 @ Pitt
        Little fact I saw, Duke has covered in 14 straight games where the spread is 7 points or less. The Blue Devils have quietly constructed a strong defense and their special teams play has allowed them to win some close games. Paul Chryst has shown in recent weeks he can’t keep his group of kids disciplined. Proof of this incompetence can be seen in the picture below. I mean, that’s just nuts. I saw this line and just had to get action on it. Pittsburgh has lost 3/5 games played at home this season and bad home losses include: Iowa and Akron. This game could be a close one, but I see Duke winning by a FG or so and I will take the points. I hope everyone has a fun and safe Halloween.

  • Petefranklin

    1) La Tech -6
    2) maryland +3
    3) Chargers +2
    4) louisville +3.5
    5) Ravens pk
    AP) broncos

    • Petefranklin

      bag Maryland and I’ll take western Michigan instead

    • i’m calling latech the free-essay-week essay unless instructed differently, ok?

      • Petefranklin

        Thanks. I just rolled back to town.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Costanza Principal Cheddar

    AP Pats +3 over Sons of Horseface The Pats have looked bad most of the time and when they have won, they have played over their respective heads. The Sons of Horseface have looked good most of the year and the greatest quarterback to ever play in Denver is aging well. Costanza Principal, take the Pats.

    Troy +25.5 over Georgia Southern, Georgia Southern cannot play in a bowl game because of some stupid rule so they are going to run up the score and take it out on the weak teams they play. Troy is weak. By run up the score, Georgia Southern may have the best running game in college football, Troy has looked amazingly pitiful against the run.
    Troy has a defensive leader named Wayland Coleman-Dancer. A hyphen, Wayland, and Dancer? What were his parents thinking? He also gave away Troy’s defensive keys and game plan in an interview yesterday. Last week Troy’s FRESHMAN quarterback had the worst game a Troy quarterback has had since Corey “Bad Hair” Robinson.
    Georgia Southern Running Back Matt Breida has looked unstoppable
    Next week Georgia Southern plays Texas State, the party school where most students not only failed to spell SAT correctly, they are too stoned to know that they have a football team, so Georgia State is not exactly looking ahead to a tough match-up, they may concentrate their full attention on beating the crab out of Troy. Troy will give up 400 rushing yards and be down by 80 points by halftime. Georgia Southern wins by a record score, Cumberland gets a reprieve from the record books after only about 100 years.
    Troy has no chance of getting anywhere near covering this spread. Such a huge Costanza Principal I will make this game my terrible, useless, ESSAY. ****

    UL Monroe +33 over TAMU, How can A&M be in the vaunted SEC and schedule a game against a team that is not good enough to play in the Sun Belt Conference? UL Monroe will lose by at least 9 touchdowns, TAMU will most assuredly cover this spread. The only saving grace for UL Monroe is that there is no penalty for 10, or 8, or 7, or 6, or 5 players on the field, because by the middle of the 3rd quarter most of the players will be back on the bus. CP rating, A&M by 77 points.

    Purdue +23.5 over Nebraska, Unless Purdue develops some amazing Rube Goldberg device to get the ball away from Nebraska and into the end zone they lose by 42 points. (Two bad “jokes” in one sentence, I hope someone likes at least one of them.) CP Rating Nebraska by 42.

    Illinois +28.5 over Ohio State, Costanza Principal rating, OSU wins by a number somewhere close to The National Debt.

    Kansas +35.5 over Baylor, Kansas scores about as much as I do. (Well…. that is an exaggeration, it is almost impossible for a team to never score.) The offensive genius at Kansas was Charlie Wies and “Elvis has left the building.” CP Rating, Baylor wins by ten touchdowns.

    I am certain that this week will either be my first Virgin Lobsterita, or my first Lobsterfest, I shall be pleased with either outcome.

    • technivore

      If by virgin lobsterita you mean 0 for 6, I had one of those last week and am also Costanza’ing myself this week. I really like your approach though — take ALL OF THE POINTS.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Did not realize that I took all of the points. I really just picked the games, then choose the opposite of what I was going to pick.
        Congratulations on your Virgin Lobsterita! Now you can say, “I will always remember my first time, it was a warm, beautiful fall weekend….”
        I have never had a Lobsterfest, or a Virgin Lobsterita, but I am very certain that I will achieve the 0 for 6 first.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Congratulations technivore!
        A Virgin Lobsterita followed by a Lobsterfest?? This is an amazing and unprecedented tactical ploy that shall go down in the annals of Cheddar Bay History.

        • technivore

          Thanks Acto! And FYI I was NOT JOKING about the Costanza thing. I honestly, literally did in fact make my 6 picks, then take the other side of every single one. So hey, great that worked, but now what?!?

  • Feel bad that I didn’t realize you were going to be in town. Next time you come back we need to get together and let me buy you a beer (or 3).

  • Dave Borcas

    I will take FSU -3.5 tonight

  • ChuckKoz

    USC -7 (at Wash St)
    Oregon State -3 (vs Cal)
    Utah +5.5 (at ASU)
    Stanford +8 (at Oregon)
    AP: Broncos -3 (at Patriots)

    Washington -3.5 (at Colorado)
    I am humbled half way through the year, so I am going all in on my previous strength: the Pac 12. And where I feel most strong is this game. While I am excited about the Buffaloes emerging in the next few years, UW clearly is superior in talent and has a very good coach. Colorado has looked much better, despite a usual crappy record (2-6). But last week’s loss at home to UCLA was heartbreaking and it seems hard to think they will get up as high emotionally. And probably more important than the emotions is that – despite the improvements – they still have a major talent gap, with Colorado State (7-1!) clearly winning too many recruits. Meanwhile, UW is just 5-3, but 3 very respectable losses: Stanford, Oregon, and ASU. The ASU loss at home last week bothers me, but its hard for me to think a historically very good coach like Peterson is going to let his team lose a 3rd straight while playing a definitely inferior opponent.

    NOTE: I was close to taking UCLA (-6.5), but decided to sit that one out, as I will be attending that game and want to enjoy the game like a normal person, especially since its the first football game my 4 year old will ever be attending. It would just not be right (yet) to be discussing point spreads with her.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      “It would just not be right (yet) to be discussing point spreads with her.”

      Good luck if you try to catch her up to the Vegas line mid-game.
      My 3 year old may have either cognitive deficiencies, or enthusiasm problems. I tried explaining to her in depth about Rob Ryan’s press coverage and the incantations with which it could be morphed into both pre and post snap, but she was more concerned with whether Dora and Boots could play as tandem cornerbacks. (Boots over the slot receiver of course.) She even asked if Swiper at Safety could lead the league in interceptions.
      Perhaps you will have better luck, ChuckKoz, but there may really be something fundamentally wrong with my daughter.

      • bupalos

        There would be something fundamentally wrong if there was not something fundamentally wrong with your daughter, Acto.

  • CLEVTA

    Damn I missed all the festivities. If I didn’t have family in town and stuck at home I would’ve dropped by. Funny thing is I probably crossed paths Monday morning at the Starbucks next to Corkys Monday morning. Next time

  • Man it all went too fast. Come back soon.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    My dogs were barking, but totally worth it! Thanks all, it was fun.

  • swig

    Props on the walking. I am shocked how few people think of walking even 1 mi.

  • bupalos

    Makes my pancreas hurt that I did not notice what was forming here. While I’ve been mostly concentrating on not dying from an extremely freak canoeing incident last month that popped my guts, I probably could and would have shuffled up there if I had fully envisioned this pic.

    When’s next? I’ll pay my doc extra to say I can get back into the sauce by then.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      We missed you. Get better.

    • Bup you are an excuse factory.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        He should probably market them to the “dog ate my homework” crowd. A+ for creativity on this one.

        • bupalos

          Trying to decide if I should bring a colostomy bag for the next event you all FAIL TO INVITE ME TO.

          I admit I maybe should have made this one more mainstream and believeable. It would have been better for everyone. But this misplaced ridicule will only give me a leg up on you all when I come asking for a kidney.

          • CleveLandThatILove

            The social arm of the executive committee needs a little work.

          • aw. well here’s the deal: i didnt even book a hotel until monday/tuesday having futzed around with “should i do raiders or bucs game?” type of planning. hell i was on the fence about coming midweek. so i didnt pimp it much at all and the fact that so many people were met accrues entirely to popularity and energy level of frowns.

    • actovegin1armstrong
      • bupalos

        I have not idea how you got that footage, but you can clearly see it was nothing to fool around with.