#CheddarBay wk 9, Packers at Saints.
All-play game is Packers +1 at Saints on Sunday night.
And yes, that’s my ticket to the right. I’m coming to town for this here game. I expect to ramble into town Saturday evening,,, Hampton Inn Downtown bay-bee! See you all at the tailgates and
probably definitely at the Barley for Fox-Lima-Jackson hi-jinx.
(This also means the Saturday entries and updates will be quite tardy.)
#CheddarBay late lines: BC -13.5 at Wake ASU -3 at UW Nev -3 at Hawaii
— mike b. (@603_brown) October 24, 2014
We introduced the 603POWER rating system several weeks ago. 603POWER is a measure of who’s best at controlling the line of scrimmage (weighted to favor o-line play); 603PWRQ factors in QB play. Looking at 603PQ the Browns are #12 and the top five are:
Raw spreadsheet is here. I’ve got it formatted so that red indicates one standard deviation below mean; green is one std dev above.
Just for fun, let’s use the ranks as an indicator to pick this week’s games. Lines are Thursday evening from sportsbook.ag.
Chargers +9 at Broncos. Consider Manning-Rivers a wash, use raw 603PWR ranks — 224 to 145 — Broncos cover easily.
Lions -3.5 at Falcons. Stafford-Ryan another wash, 603PWR says 219 to 145. Lions cover easily.
Vikings +2.5 at Bucs. Using PWRQ Vikings rate higher 288 to 275,,, but home plus Bridgewater… I will say Bucs cover.
**Bears +6 at Pats. My ranks indicate a rather large Bears win outright. The matchup of Bears pass rush versus Pats pass block is especially problematic for New England. A best bet.
Rams +7 at Chiefs. Teams are sisde by side in the ranks. The Chief home field gets them win, Rams cover.
Seahawks -5 at Panthers. Seahawks. Panthers rate near the bottom of the ranks.
Bills +3 at Jets. Jets run defense off the charts. Jets to win and cover.
Dolphins -6 at Jags. Dolphins rate very highly here and rightly so. Dolphins to cover.
Texans -3 at Titans. Teams ranks close. Assuming three points for home field, I like Titans to cover and [probably] win.
***Ravens -1 at Bengals. Ravens best team in football right now. Bengals soft as grapes. The delta between Ravens run blocking and Bengals run defense is as large as there is. (Now don’t everyone essay this because I’ve got a good one baking.) Ravens huge. A best bet. A POTY.
Eagles +2.5 at Cardinals. Ratings like the Eagles a lot better. Eagles to cover and win.
Colts -3 at Steelers. Steelers to win outright.
Raiders +7 at Browns. No lie this is the closest to the line. I’ll use the homefield three points to call this one for a Browns cover.
Packers +1.5 at Saints. Packers to win comfortably.
Redskins +10 at Cowboys. Cowboys win but Skins cover. But note that I don’t have the Colt McCoy data baked into this. Is he really starting?
So, we’ll check this next week and see how we did.
(Updatd 10/27: … Ahem.) Broncos, Lions, Bucs, Bears, Rams, Seahawks, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Steelers, Browns, Packers, Redskins.
And bet the house on the Bears/Ravens parlay.