#CheddarBay wk 8, Niners at Broncos.

NFL: 2014 NFLPA Rookie Premiere

One reason to like the Niners.  That’s Jadeveon Clowney and Tre Mason with bemused looks in the background.

All-play game is Niners +6.5 at Broncos on Sunday night.  You know our cosmos is out of whack when Mike Homgrum is sniffing around Oakland for a coaching gig while real Raiders like Harbaugh and Kaepernick are just playing for the wine and cheese fans just down the road.  Damn, if that could only be flipped.  But in the meantime, DON’T DO IT OAKLAND.

Meanwhile in Cleveland… nice game Sunday no?  Let’s not get cocky.  Browns are played like ass in the first half of both road games this year.  Don’t give Gus Bradley an opening; he won’t be giving the Browns coaching favors like Ken Whisenhunt did.

Several late lines this week, check back here and on my twitter for updates on:

UPDATED CHEDDAR LINES

Tulane +20.5 at UCF
UTSA +12.5 at LaTech
Akron -3.5 at Ohio.

Was fun to watch the Cheddar scoreboard last week.  Congrats to jdoepke on the LOBSTERFEST and Zara on the POTY win.  They moved 15 and 22 slots respectively… take heart from that if you’re down in the lower third.

Probably back with some random thoughts later, good luck this week.

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  • tag cloud.

  • Capitalgg

    Sent this to Mike B. before the little one’s bath time, so I’m on Ark St -3.

  • zarathustra

    I can’t sit out the first Tuesday night game of the year. Give me the better team playing with more rest and revenge.
    Arky St -3 over Laffy

  • Petefranklin

    Looking like I ring the cowbell next week, I bet less than normal at square shops so as not to influence this great line on my game.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      I am ready to jump on the much anticipated PF POTY! I hope that you do not mind sir. Should I spread my money around so that I do not move the line?
      I have almost $7.00 to invest.

      • Petefranklin

        You won’t like it.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          Ball State?

          • Petefranklin

            Not a cowbell ringer.Just a winner.

  • Petefranklin

    AP 49ers

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Den -6.5 for the all play

  • PJD19

    Houston +3 oer Pittsburgh
    SF + 6.5 over Denver **Essay

    This should be a really hard fought game, between two top teams. 6.5 points is too much to pass up when I could see the W going to either team. SF is team with a lot of pride and veteran players that should bring their ‘A’ game tonight to play the Broncos. SF is a complete, well rounded team and giving them 6.5 against anyone is too much, even against Denver on the road.

  • PJD19

    dallas over nyg

  • BRONCOS. who knows?
    BROWNS. Not the ‘same old brayowns,’ said JH3.
    CARDINALS. Big fan of this team at the moment-mostly because of their head coach.

    CHARLIE MUNGER’S MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:
    COLTS. Home game for the league’s number one passing offense. Bengals D is struggling of late after starting the year off on fire. I don’t have too much science to back up this pick, but Andrew Luck is as good as they come, and watching him play gets more and more fun each week. I’ve got zero confidence in T-rich and the run game, but who needs it when you’re throwing for 330 a game? Could set up as a nice little weekend for the Brownies with losses by the rest of the division. Have a great sunday!

  • mo_by_dick

    49ers +6.5 (AP)
    Browns -5
    Saints +3
    Colts -3 (ESSAY)

    My essay picks have been abysmal lately, so I’ll keep this short so there is less to regret later. I’m reading that Colts OL is finally healthy and the Bengals D has been horrible against the run. In the battle of Andrews, I’m taking luck all day, especially with the Colts at home and the Bengals banged up. Finally, Greg Little on the Bengals makes it impossible for me to not pick against them. Indy rolls.

  • bupalos

    Two weeks and twenty-and-twelve hours ago I brought forth upon this blog a shining example of how you all were thenceforth to live and breathe and die within this bay. Murmuring excitedly in hushed tones you all gathered round, and, stifling the shouts of joy that your immortal parts spontaneously sought to offer up, you maintained a sober* silence as you witnessed what is, to this very day, the finest example of a cheddar essay yet brought forth from the hand of man.** And as you shuffled away bewildered with both shame and joy, you wisely remonstrated the youths among you; “Remember this day, child,” you said, “for one day your children and your children’s children will ask of it. It is the day that Bupalos has told us of the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans, and the things that are and are not, and the things that have been and will be.

    How pleased I was, and a bounty of points showered down upon the bay, and some of you sprouted legs and dragged yourselves forth from the annato-colored waters and and began to creep upon the dry earth. And one of your number particularly lived out the full meaning of my message, and was vaulted into the first place, above his fellows, where he lords it over you to this day.

    Yes, some of you continued with your incoherent babble about BALL STATE! and BUFFALO!! and BENGALS WILL TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS!!!! but I assumed it was just the last gasps of of your lisping moral childhoods playing themselves out. My job was done. And lo I rested.

    But now as I tilt the Bupalian ear back toward the bay again, what do I hear? The old sober silence in which you sucked up Bupalos’s wisdom would be as a symphony here; But is it silence we hear? No, it’s a beastly cacophony of vice. “Maaaa Maaaa, Taaaahm Braaaahdy. Maaaa maaaa. Jets suck. maaaa maaaa.” Your pitiful bleats have brought the wolves of cheesy disaster back to feast in our dear bay, and both your totals and your souls will pay for it. Yes in just two short weeks, deprived of the moral instruction you so desperately need, your souls have grown as red, spiny, and calcified as the lobsters for which you have been so vainly trying to swap them. And truly, I can’t in good conscience even counsel most of you to cease these devil-dealings; your souls at this point aren’t worth the tiny scrap of paper that your nearly protozoic DNA sequence could be printed on.

    Our time grows short. For those among you who will once again live as men and women instead of filthy rutting animals, perpend;

    ***Colts -3; Cincinnatti without AJ Green should be just fine. Except they aren’t… Dalton is the kind of guy that can really really really use someone to bail him out from time to time. He’ll take on water and sink trying to keep up with The Fortunate One, throwing the door to this division wide open.

    Arizona plus or minus whatever versus OakStank.

    49ers plus or minus whatever line.

    *No god damned asterisks this week. Figure it out for yourselves
    ** What, are you not listening?

    • acto

      To be lumped in among the “nearly protozoic” is the greatest almost something not quite exactly unlike a compliment i have ever received.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    Yesterday:
    1. Kansas St +8.5 (W)
    2. BGSU -2 (L)
    3.ND +10.5 (W)
    4. Michigan St -15 (W)

    Today
    5. All Play: SF +6.5
    6. Essay: Colts -3

    I like a hot Andrew Luck this week at home vs a declining Bengals team. The last couple of games the Bengals have played they havent been able to stop the run and have been giving up huge passing games with little to no pressure on QBs. If they cant get pressure on Luck things could get ugly. Hopefully Bradshaw or Trent step up and set up for the play action pass to T.Y. I dont think they Bengals will be able to keep up with the Colts scoring ability. My prediction: Browns win and Bengals lose keeping the division very interesting.

  • All Play: Niners +6.5. Because Dawson.

    Other Picks:

    Two Tweeted College Picks yesterday. Three picks to go.

    **Essay** San Diego -4.5 vs. Kansas City. I’m not keen to go NFL for my essay picks but on Thursday night, for Thursday Night Football, or TNF, which makes me think of TMNT or Tennessee, but not Thursday Night Football – terrible acronym. ANYWAYS, Rivers gave an interview that stole my little heart. He could hardly hear the questions he was being asked but he was able to catch words like “Manning” and took it from there. He seemed like a man with a plan, and I like those. I like those leading teams. And I like those for at least four and half points.

    Giants +6 vs. Dallas

    Arizona -3.5 vs. Oakland

  • Concierge

    Gimme Niners +6.5

  • CLEinMPLS

    Chiefs +4.5 for my last pick

  • CLEinMPLS

    Bears -3
    Redskins -5.5
    Broncos -6.5 (All play)
    Seattle -6.5 (essay)

    Seattle coming off a loss making the trip to St. Louis. The Rams front 7 can’t get to the QB, and Seattle has one of the best in the business with Russell Wilson. I think Davis struggles mightily in this game against a Seattle D that will he playing with a chip on their shoulder. With Seattle coming off the loss, they won’t take their foot off the gas. At one point on Monday, the 9ers scored 31 unanswered points against this Rams team. Once again, the Edward Jones dome is not a tough place to play. My guess is Seattle has 30 percent of the fans in the place. I know there was the Percy distraction this week, but Seattle will use that to the rally together. Rams don’t have the horses to keep up in this one

  • Petefranklin

    Essay KC Chiefs +4.5
    I have attended a few of these games over the years and they always seemed to come down to the wire, even when the point spread was high. Chargers are rolling but are they really a elite team? I’m not so sure as they may not be able to move the ball on the ground when needed. KC can as evidenced by their 137 YPG rushing attack. All the intangibles go towards the Chiefs as well with the Andy Reid away dog and off a bye week stuff in my favor. Chiefs win this one outright!

  • Andy Rhode

    Vikings +5
    Arizona –3.5
    Denver –6.5
    Dallas –6
    Cincinnati +3

    I’m in on the Cowboys again this week. DeMarco Murray is a beast right now and when he’s good, all Romo miscues are made smaller. But it’s all DeMarco to me. And right now, he’s cruising.

    As for the other side of this matchup, the Giants do nothing for me. Despite playing better, Eli is still Eli and they’ve got to go on the road for this one. A six point line is scary, but I think winning by at least a TD is doable this week. Even a moderate bounce back after last week’s trouncing against Philly won’t be enough to cover.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Chicago -3 for a cheddar point
    Essay: Cleveland-5
    I believe in the Browns and their coaching staff. I also love the fact that the Browns lost to the jags last trim humiliating fashion. This is not the spot for a let down. Our coaching staff won’t allow it. At least that’s what im telling myself.

    Anyway why will the Browns win by ore than 5…. Our defense is improving and the d line should get fat onthid pathetic I line….also really hoping Gilbert gets a chance to build some confidence this week. Browns defense let us down last yr they should be hungry to prove themselves and exact some revenge.

    It sucks we lost Alex Mack. Won’t be replaced can’t be replaced. That being said we have a monster running game and a qb more than capable of making throws. Cameron should continue to get healthy and make a difference and Terrance west is going to play inspired defense.

    Finally the Browns just can’t lose this game. These guys have to know they are in prime position for a hugely disappointing loss. Dansby and whitner have been screaming it all week. The coaches have too. These are the new Browns not the fuckers that rip our hearts out. These Browns beat the hell out of shitty teams (Tennessee was an exception to this new rule). Wish I could fire on another play of the year but I can’t so I wont.

    Browns in a massacre. Call PETA cause the Browns are killing the Jaguars. Call them now before they’re extinct! Oh my god hoyer nooooo he just nooooooo.

    Browns by 10

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Dolphins. Haven’t we been here before with Cutler? One game (or most games), he is just terrible. Losing games with picks and bad body language. Then he has one good (or at least better than terrible) game and we get inundated with the Cutler has figured it out nonsense. At this point, it’s comical. The bottom line is he stinks. He has always stunk. He stunk with Denver. He stinks with the Bears. It’s no accident that Josh McCown (yes that retread) stepped into this offense last year and lit it up like nobody’s business. Back to this game. Bears off a big road win. Fins in a bit of a tailspin off a tough last second loss. They can run the ball though and should be able to in this matchup. I’ll take the 3 pts as this one will go down to the wire.

    Others:
    Lions
    Bengals

    All play:
    Broncos

  • The Iron Sheik

    I goofed too much vodka

    Take out my browns play and I will take the Broncos for the weekl

  • bupalos

    Zara convinces me with that Washington essay. I’ll toss a point at that one too.

    The slate so far:

    KState +8.5- mmmhmmm
    KU +14 – yes indeed
    Washington +20.5 – As the fates decide, but zara’s solid gold so just book it.

  • zarathustra

    Utah (W)
    Kansas St (W)
    Okie St (pending)

    Broncos -6.5 over Niners (all-play)
    Another all play I don’t have an opinion on. I’ll ride with the wise words below of the young sage Nick.

    Nevada +10 over BYU
    It will be tough for Nevada to pull the outright upset, but this line should be more like 6 in my opinion.

    Washington +20.5 over Oregon***
    I really would have liked that extra half point that was out there earlier in the week, but I won’t let that discourage me from playing against another bizarre Oregon line. I essayed Arizona against Oregon and at that time was almost scared off by how off the line seemed. Same feeling here. This seems like a touchdown game either way. It is never this simple, but Washington is every bit as good as Arizona. There is no reason they can’t get a similar result. Oregon’s o line has stabilized, but the team is still quite overrated in my mind–and that very much includes their qb, who is very accurate but shit under pressure. The Huskies have the best defense the Ducks will have seen thus far and I believe they will provide the pressure tonight. The moneyline isn’t quite as attractive as it was vs Arizona, but I will have a taste of it nonetheless.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Washington +20.5 Oregon

    • CleveLandThatILove

      AP Broncos -6.5 49ers
      *Browns -5 Jags. MOMENTUM
      Pack -7 Panthers
      Chiefs +4.5 Chargers
      Bengals +3 Colts

      *Browns for the freebie essay.

  • Petefranklin

    I like colorado but can you take me off of them please
    I will take the rambling wreck of georgia tech and the huskies of washington for a point each mike. Thanks

    Put me on the chiefs tomorrow as well. Thanks.

  • oxr

    College game, college game… the other day at the grocery store I saw an enormous Jeep with a number plate that was something along the lines of “ND 1R1SH”, which I misread as “NO IRISH” and was kind of taken aback by for a minute. Anyway, let me on the bandwagon: Notre Dame +10.5 over Florida State.

    • oxr

      All-Play Broncos -6.5 over 49ers
      Cardinals -3.5 over Raiders
      Seahawks -6.5 over Rams
      Ravens -6.5 over Falcons

      Cowboys -6 over Giants – Not a big fan of this slate of games, but getting a college pick right always feels like a bonus point, so the week can’t be a total loss. Anyway, the Dallas Cowboys: I hate overreacting to one game but I feel like in the case of the Giants I am at worst overreacting to three games. Hanging 45 on the Redskins is better than not hanging 45 on the Redskins but is not inherently praiseworthy. Victor Cruz now joins a bunch of other guys on injured reserve. The Cowboys might be the best team they’ve faced, and they’re on the road to do it. Again, I hate overreacting to one game, but I think if last week hadn’t happened – if the Cowboys hadn’t beat Seattle in Seattle, and if the Giants hadn’t gotten waxed by Philly – this sub-TD line would still look sensible.

  • The Iron Sheik

    I have watched a few Arkansas games now and in all them they are a day late and a dollar short… Not this week. They will step up to the challenge and beat a strong sec contender without their best player. Without Gurley Georgia will be one dimensional giving Arkansas the the upper hand. And lastly the sun shines on a pigs ass every once in a while. Oink oink

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    Texas A&M

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      Nd over fsu

      • AlvaroEspinoza10

        Broncos
        Bills
        Redskins
        Essay: Dallas -6 over Giants

        The energy in Dallas right now must be crazy right now. That stadium is going to be rocking after beating Seattle on the road last week and let’s face it, this might be Coughlin’s last year with the Giants. I expect DeMarco Murray to be able to run all over the Giants D. And more importantly, I still don’t trust the Giants offense that started out so shaky– now without Victor Cruz. It might not be accurate to call this a “changing of the guard” game in the NFC East, but I think this is gonna be a big blowout in favor of the Cowboys and this will mark the beginning of the end of the Tom Coughlin Era in New York. As long as Romo throws less than 2.5 picks, this one is Dallas all the way. Hopping on the Cowboys bandwagon right now

  • zarathustra

    Sorry to piecemeal these. Will be back later with the rest of my picks. For now another one pointer.

    Oklahoma St over TCU

  • bupalos

    Let’s try Kansas +14

  • shoseph

    Let’s start off with:

    Notre Dame (+10.5) vs. Florida State

    Other picks to come before NFL kickoff.

    • shoseph

      AP: 49ers +6.5
      Giants +6
      Cardinals -3.5
      Chargers -4.5
      Essay: Texans +3.5

      Essay coming tomorrow, unfortunately, as writing it out on the road on a phone is a PITA.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Adding mich st-15 for 1 cheddar pt

  • Tim Butler

    BAMA -11.5 over t a@m
    LSU -9.5 over kentucky

    • Tim Butler

      Take me off bama please, having 2nd thoughts about that one

      • Tim Butler

        panthers +7 over PACK
        LIONS -3 over saints
        giants +6 over COWBOYS
        niners +6.5 over broncos

        ESSAY: BILLS -5 over vikes

        Going down with the ship on this one. I obviously haven’t learned from PJD19, who has essayed the Bills 4 times this year, with middling results (2-2). This is a pure heart pick. However, I will say that the Bills are 2-0 this year against the NFC north, and both of those games were on the road. I feel bad for Teddy, going up against the Bills D-line in only his 3rd start. He’s gonna be feeling pressure all day from the Bills front four. Sorry for the terrible essay. Go bills.

        • Tim Butler

          I’ll change my all-play to broncos -6,5 please

  • for concierge:
    wmu (no essay week essay)
    usf
    msu
    nmsu
    ball

  • for flyhighcharliefrye:

    49ers

    Ohio State

    Army

    Ny giants

    Rams

    non essay essay because I’m currently the worst and need a change of course

    Kc chiefs

  • Super Infected Virally Contagious Pick of the Week: Bengals +3 over Colts: Love seeing the public all over the Colts here. This is an easy spot for Indy to let up after a run of four big wins while the Bengals need to get back in the W column after the real tough spot against the desperate Pats group and the hangover tie last week against the Panthers. Presumably they’ve adjusted some to playing without Green, and they get Zeitler back on the OL this week. They should be able to score on Indy and they have a defense good enough to slow the Colts down a bit. Give me the free field goal, the better defense, and the team that needs the win a lot more.

    For colleges I’ll take Florida State -10.5 over Notre Dame and Washington +20.5 over Oregon. As much as you guys are really tempting me to take Indiana and the points over Sparty, I really don’t want to have to keep an eye on that game.

    So for the rest I’ll take Jags +5 over Browns, Giants +6 over Cowboys, and Niners +6.5 over Broncos for the All Play.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Kansas St +8.5
    2. BGSU -2

    Will be back with more later

    • Lucy Lawrence

      3.ND +10.5
      4. Michigan St -15

      Back with 2 NFL picks (Essay and all play tomorrow)

  • trashycamaro

    Lost track of the time:

    WKU -6 over FAU. If I missed the cutoff Mike let me know).

    • trashycamaro

      2. LSU -9.5 over UK. I get that LSU has not looked great this year, but under double digits at home against Kentucky? Really? Feels like stealing.

      3. AP: Den -6.5 over SF. Look, SF is not dead, and they are a very good team, with a very good pass defense (#4). But the only thing that gets in Peyton’s way is a great pass rush. With the dudes SF is missing, this is where they lack. Football Outsiders has the SF defense at #3 in overall defense (a great number to be sure), but there is pass rush is way down at 23rd, closer to 32nd (surprisingly, the Rams) than 5th (in order: NYJ, JAC, KC, IND, DET).

      4. STL +6.5 over SEA. Give me the home dog over the struggling divisional rival … who I just found out traded their #1 receiver. WOW. Apparently ebola and Charlie Crist’s fan have overwhelmed my twitter so much I did not even see it until right now. But really the most important stat for me is this: St. Louis has a 3-1 ATS record in its last four games against Seattle dating back two seasons(for completeness sake: but it enters Sunday’s game at the Edwards Jones Dome at 0-2 ATS at home this season).

      5. Essay: IND -3 over CIN. With the way the Bengals have been struggling on defense and a surprisingly strong pass rush from Indy, I will ride with Luck. Cincy has been great on pass defense (#2) but is really struggling with their pass rush (#24, right behind SF). If they are not getting to Luck because of Indy’s oline (tied at #4 in pass protection with DEN and NOLA), he can make the right decisions and get the offense going. My only real worry is that they will keep trying to make Trent work and Cincy’s #1 ranked pass protection oline will give Dalton enough time to find his backup pass catchers (AJ Green doubtful, Marvin Jones out) for some big plays.

      6. GB -7 over CAR. Started doing research to support the Panthers over the Packers, but proved my intial thesis wrong. Carolina is not getting any pressure on the QB (17th in Adjusted Sack Rate) and can’t stop power running (with a #28 ranking) and is awful at open field tackling (#30). Look for the Rodgers and the rest of the offense to get off to a good start and never look back.

  • AmplifiedEsq

    1) *ESSAY* Michigan St. -15
    2) Denver -6.5
    3) Marshall -22
    4) Nebraska -6.5
    5) Seattle -6.5
    6) Chicago -3

    MSU -15: I hear MSU hype every week… I guess that’s what happens working in Lansing. This week just seemed over the top though. Usually there’s some reservation/concern about the game… No such thing from anyone I talked to or conversations overheard. That said, the team has looked good as of late and still have a strong chance of making the playoffs (think I even saw somewhere that they were the favorite based on the betting odds). The first set of rankings from the playoff committee comes out in a few weeks – so any chance to impress between now and then will be taken advantage of. All I really know about IU is that they have a RB that is tearing it up… So did Nebraska before meeting MSU’s defense. I think MSU easily handles IU by more than 15 setting the stage for the next two weeks vs. Michigan and vs. OSU.

  • PJD19

    ND +10.5
    OSU -19
    Baylor -8

  • The Iron Sheik

    K state 8.5
    Wvu 8
    Ohio state -19
    Arkansas 3.5 •••
    Nd 10.5
    Browns -5
    Essay to come

    Was

  • bupalos

    I’ll hop in on K-State. Essay something up in a minute.

  • Petefranklin

    Play #2 OSU-19

    • Petefranklin

      Play #3 Colorado +19.5 vs USC

  • squeekycleen

    arkansas for a regular, will post rest tomorrow

  • zarathustra

    Kansas St for one point please.

  • MISSOURI.

    GEORGIA TECH.

    more later…

  • Dave Borcas

    Michigan State -15 (POTY & Essay
    Buckeyes -19
    Washington Redskins -5.5
    Denver -6.5 (all play)
    Houston Texans +3.5
    Desperate times call for desperate measures. This week will cement my place in the basement or be my Letitia, and get me back in the game. My pick isn’t so much being driven by Sparty’s dominance as it is the issues the Hoosiers are dealing with. Indiana is a team that goes as far as their offense will carry them. They are also living off the upset of Mizzou, another team that has since been exposed. Losing their starting QB, turns the Indiana offense over to a freshman. In his relief work last week Chris Covington completed 5 passes after replacing Nate Suffield, unfortunately 2 of them were to Iowa Hawkeye. Combined with Indiana’s bad defense this is the perfect recipe for a Sparty blowout, or at least I hope so.
    On a side note, this is a BIG game for our Browns. I have been saying I will not totally buy in until they win 3 in a row. Tomorrow will be a statement game on how the rest of the season will go. With some home cooking with warm weather teams on the horizon the stadium could be rocking well into January. Gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Browns!!!!!!!!!

  • Here’s the games that caught my eye this week.

    1. at Pats -9.5 Jets (lose.) (stupid.) (jets always play pats hard.) (who knew pats defense would make geno smith look like aaron rodgers.)

    at minny -13 purdue
    at wvu +8 baylor
    at fau +6 wku
    iowa +4 at umd
    uab -1 at mtsu

    2. *rutgers +19 at osu (no more essays against osu in columbus, i learned that lesson. but still, nineteen points against almost undefeated team?) (i’d love to get the current +21.5 here.)

    *at ark +3.5 uga
    nmsu +4 at idaho

    3. essay *at fiu +22 marshall
    FIU is 4th in turnover differential and have recovered an astounding 16 fumbles. I’m not one for betting on a team’s past turnover forcing ability, but when I’m also getting 22 points at home.. I kinda am. As aggressive as Marshall’s offense can be, that sort of play leads to mistakes. MU has had a turnover in every game and three against URI and ODU. FIU lost a close game at Cheddar darling UTSA last week.. but still beat spread and that was with 5 TOs of their own… and still held the offense-minded Roadrunners to 16 pts. I’ve been watching FAU all year.. they’re a different team since their QB came back (Jaquez Johnson) came back in the Tulsa game. Anyway, didn’t matter versus FIU; they demolished the Jaquez Owls 38-10 and Johnson was 19-42 with an INT. Ok yeah sure Rakeem Cato is better than Jaquez Johnson. But FIU’s pass defense ranks #21;; the best pass defense MU has seen thus far was Akron (#42) and Cato’s passer rating that game was over 50 points below his norm. FIU’s offense is big bag of suck, but they just need to get into the 20s. Not sure Marshall gets into the 40s. I’ll say this too: FIU has a cute little stadium. I wouldn’t expect much more than 12,000 for the game but it’s not like the mind-bending demoralization of 12,000 in an 80,000 capacity stadium. With a 6pm kickoff it’s a comfy little pre-party and actually a nice environment for a small-ish college home football game.

    uk +9.5 at lsu
    at nu +6.5 neb

    4. *uw +20.5 at oregon

    nevada +10 at byu

    5. *at ravens -6.5 falcons

    browns -5 at jags
    at colts -3 bengals
    dolphins +3 at bears
    at cowboys -6 giants

    6. at broncos -6.5 niners

  • Its Only Money

    Let’s see if I can stop the slide this week. Maybe a change of scenery will do the mind, body, and soul a little good. I am making my picks from Tallahassee, FL this week in what should be a wonderful football weekend. First at the FSU v ND game and honestly I don’t know who I want to win. I grew up an Irish fan, but that has since faded as I went to Michigan and then Akron. I think FSU has a much better chance of keeping the SEC out of the Championship than ND so I might want them to win. I’m just hoping for a competitive game. Sunday morning I am making the 150 mile trek over to Jacksonville to hopefully cheer our Browns on tho their third win in a row. Enough of that though and on to my picks, here hoping I can manage more than a point.

    Baylor -8 @ West Virgina
    Duke – 3 v Virginia
    Akron -3.5 @ Ohio
    Indianapolis -3 v Cincinnati
    All Play: San Francisco +6.5 @ Denver

    Essay Pick: Cleveland -5 @ Jacksonville
    I can’t believe I am actually making such an important pick to get me back in the game on our beloved Browns. This is more about hope than head. Hope that I can personally turn things around and hope that our Browns are for real. I also hope they win so I don’t ruin the rest of the weekend for my family. Yes I am nearly a 40 year old man and the outcome of a football game that I have absolutely no control of determines my outlook for the next 48 hours or so. It is sad I know. This is the kind of game good teams go in and win by more than a TD. Are the Browns a good team, people are starting to believe they are. We shall see. AS for handicapping it, the Jags don’t really have much going for them at this point, their run D is better than their pass D. They can give up big plays deep which is something that Hoyer has a little trouble but I still think they will get it done. Not sure really what teh Jags can do offensively against the Browns D if they play like they did last week. That’s all I’ve got, hopefully I end up with more than 22 points in the standings on Tuesday.

    • Petefranklin

      Common sense says that there is no way the Clowns should be laying that much on the road. The NFL isn’t a bettors paradise when common sense is used. HFA for the Browns this week I’m guessing. And all the so called sharps have not grasped just how good Hoyer and this offense have been. Someone moved this line up from 3 though.

  • CLEVTA

    1) ND +10.5
    2) S Miss +10.5
    3) Stanford -3
    4) Denver -6.5 (all play)- brutal travel for SF off road MNF going into high altitude with a deep injury list
    5) Utah St +5.5 (essay)- CSU’s strength lies in their 25th ranked rush offense at 5.2 ypc. Utah State’s strength on defense is their 6th ranked rush defense. However, CSU has faced run defenses that have ranked 90th in aggregate. The only good rush defense they have faced, Boise, held CSU to a total of 28 yds on 23 carries. Utah St should be able to do the same and new QB Garretson has played well filling in for Keeton. This should be a battle but 5.5 is too many points

    6) waiting for sunday

    • CLEVTA

      6) Giants +6

  • thatsfine

    My first pick this week was a losing essay, which kind of makes me wonder if I’m holding my betting sheet upside down. Let’s hope not.
    FAU +6
    UAB -1
    WMU +2
    USU +5.5
    Niners +6.5

  • HitTheHorns

    Iowa +4.

    Sorry about picks coming in staggered this week

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Baylor -8
    Ole Miss 116.5
    Duke -3
    Rutgers +19
    49ers +6.5
    Cowboys -6 (POTY)

    Oh, those poor Giants. I deserve to lose this POTY because they’re my team, and using a POTY against your team is sacrilege. However, all is fair in picking ATS. This game is about two teams in opposite directions: the Cowboys are putting it together, while the Giants hit a brick wall in Philly last weekend. I’m surprised the spread wasn’t something like 7.5 or 8.5. The loss of Victor Cruz stings, however that’s immaterial: they just didn’t look good, and it was that hopeless variety of not looking good, not the variety that doesn’t feel as bad because you have a young core or you’re only a few unlucky breaks from playoff contention. After some optimism following a stumble out of the gate, the season looks grim for Big Blue.

  • chuckycrater

    I suck and these picks suck and I’m not writing an essay this week because I don’t feel like justifying another shitty pick that probably won’t come in.

    Kansas State +8.5 vs. Oklahoma
    Tulsa +1.5 vs. USF (a horror show I get to cover in person)

    Duke -3 vs. Virginia
    NO-ESSAY ESSAY: Texas -12.5 vs. Iowa State
    Colts -3 vs. Bengals
    ALL PLAY: Broncos -6.5 vs. 49ers (Peyton at home at night under 7 points, automatic take)

    • actovegin1armstrong

      No essay chucky, but that is the best introductory paragraph ever!

      • chuckycrater

        Hey, I’m in 43rd place and I’m pissed.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          I am in 40th place, so I have things completely under control.

  • Petefranklin

    Western Michigan +2 for a cheddar single please. I got +3 on the Broncs but two will do!

  • Capitalgg

    Week 8

    Oh hey, look. Still hanging out in what appears to be the CapitalGG seat. That is of course just below the red line. Afterall it’s where I’ve finished each of the past 2 seasons. So that’s a thing…

    All-Play: 49ers +6.5 @ Broncos: No idea why. Just decided I wanted to be on this side of the game.

    Essay:
    Things I think I know:
    1. EVERY team in the SEC West is better than ANY team in the SEC East.
    2. Kentucky barely beat a not-so-good Ohio U team.
    3. Baton Rogue is a very tough place to play after the sun goes out.
    4. The Bayou Bengals have lost 1 night game already this year and I can’t see the Mad Hatter allowing an inferior side to come in and make it close.

    So with the above stipulated, I’ll take LSU -9.5 v. Kentucky. Nice little program Mike Stoops is building in Lexington, but they still have a ways to go.

    1. Browns -5 @ Jaguars: Finally come out strong on the road and win by at least 7. Just have that feeling.
    2. Virginia +3 @ Duke: Shhh… Don’t tell anyone, but UVa is quietly putting together a pretty good year.
    3. Nebraska -6.5 @ Northwestern: Huskers simply outman Wildcats up front. Rush for a bunch of yards and hold an early 14-17 pt lead.
    4. Georgia Tech -2.5 @ UNC: Play against UNC as much as for GTech

    Other Action:
    Army -4.5 @ Kent St.
    Cal +7 v. UCLA
    Clemson -5 @ BC
    Baylor -8 @ West Virginia
    Kansas St. +8.5 @ Oklahoma
    Tennessee +16.5 @ Ole Miss
    Georgia -3.5 @ Arkansas
    Georgia St. +17.5 @ S. Alabama

  • p_forever

    ND +10.5 FSU***

    ND/FSU might not be a traditional rivalry, but the 1993 game was truly was one of those rare games that lived up to the supreme hype. Actually it was sort of the first one of those – I don’t mean the first great college football game, and it wasn’t even
    the first game of the century – but it was the first game that was so supremely
    hyped and marketed that ESPN decided to broadcast on location at Notre Dame
    stadium – and hence game day was born. And – well – that was the beginning of the end of non-supremely hyped and overmarketed college football games.

    So I guess it’s fitting that instead of this ND/FSU game being billed for the great football drama that it is – 2 top 5 teams, 2 heisman contenders, a trip to the 1st ever college playoffs up for grabs – instead all the hype is about jameis jameis jameis and the excesses of college football and college football players, generally. Ugh.

    The problem is that with jameis and this florida state team, you can’t really look past the hype. They sort of are all hype. Well –not all hype. But a lot more hype than befits
    a proper #1 – oops #2 – team. ND shouldn’t be a double digit dog, not even in Tallahassee, and not even with jameis playing. Golson might have one disaster turnover, but he won’t have 3, and ND’s defense is good enough to keep the game in reach.

    And away we go with the rest:

    MSU -15 indiana

    Alabama -11.5 texas a&m

    UCLA -7 cal

    Duke -3 virginia

    Broncos -6.5 niners

    • actovegin1armstrong

      The brash ND team came out of that FSU game riding high after beating a team so out manned that they could not find a quarterback, so they had to get a basketball player to play QB. How can they call that “The Game of the Century”?
      The ND bravado has been punished ever since that unfair match up. They lost the next week to Boston College, the only other Division 1 school for the chronically guilt ridden.
      ND’s total of national championships before they bragged about beating a basketball player at football, 11. Since that game they have won a grand total of Zero National Championships.
      The Curse of the Undrafted Heisman Point Guard rivals The Curse of the Bambino.

  • jdoepke

    I’ve never had a #LOBSTERFEST before so I decided to treat myself this week. As somewhat of a craft beer nut, I’ve discovered the best thing to come from the city of Cleveland in a long time and it’s Fat Head Brewery Spooky Tooth. If you like pumpkin beer, give this one a try, it’s fantastic!

    Sorry for that, the publicity and 8 cheddar points went straight to my head…fresh off my first #LOBSTERFEST so if you’re smart you fade these picks. There are quite a few I like this week, hard to narrow down but here we go…

    WV +8
    Tulsa +1.5
    Tennessee +16.5
    Arkansas +3.5
    Broncos -6.5 (AP)

    NYG +6 (Essay)
    This was almost my pick of the year but couldn’t pull the trigger. The Cowboys coming off a historic win as only the 2nd team to win in Seattle in the last 21 games. The Giants are fresh off a miserable performance vs the Eagles. The Cowboys could not look better and the Giants could not look worse, yet the line is less than a TD in Dallas?? Furthermore, has anyone else noticed the “every other week” theme the Cowboys have going? Go back and look if you stated the year betting against them in week 1, with them in week 2, against in week 3, etc, etc you are a 5-1 ATS with the only blip being the ridiculous come from behind win in week 3 vs. the Rams. I knew as soon as I took Seattle in my survivor last week in a “bet with them” week it was bad news, so long 10 grand…

    I loved this game as soon as Dallas score went final last week, the line didn’t matter, now that I see it’s 6 and 65% of public are on the Cowboys, thats enough for me. Giants outright 31-30 in OT and the rest of the Survivor pool goes out on the Cowboys.

    Other considerations:
    BC +5
    TCU -8
    Mizzou +6
    UK +10
    Jags +5 (lock this one up now, Jags are winning this game)
    Rams +7
    FSU -10.5

  • GRRustlers

    Week 8 Picks

    AP – 49ers (+6.5) over Broncos – Continued rumors of the 49ers demise are amusing to me.

    CMU (-8.5) over Ball State – My MAC favorite of the week.

    Colorado (+19.5) over USC – Colorado is actually not horrible and in the “lose small” of the Terry Bowden rebuild plan. (Akron enjoying the “win small” part of their rebuild)

    OSU (-19) over Rutgers – Bye week + Big stage for Rutgers = OSU blowout

    Seattle (-6.5) over STL – #FreePaulRichardson #FreePaulRichardson

    Essay Pick

    “I couldn’t even imagine how hard that was,” punter Pat McAfee said. “You’re talking about a guy who’s been around the Colts his entire life, who personifies the Horseshoe. I was suspended one game years back and it was the worst, so I can’t even imagine what six games must have been like for him.”

    I have read this multiple times and I still can’t wrap my head around it.

    1. We are all in agreement that the mere concept of even suspending an owner is pretty dumb right?
    2. My head still hurts.

    If there was ever a figure for the Colts to rally around it is clearly a stand up citizen like their owner. I mean what a wonderful human interest story for the Sunday pre-game shows…break out the sad classical music ESPN as Irsay looks down a dark hallway to face his demons.

    As far as the actual football game goes I’m pretty sure I just saw Luck (-3) at home vs Dalton.

    Sounds good to me.

    Indy (-3) over Cincinnati

    • Petefranklin

      so you don’t like Ballsy st’s new QB?

      • GRRustlers

        Milas has my attention as betting in the MAC is pretty much code for “know your QBs” but I just think this is a case of CMU being much better. Milas has 2 tough games here in a row (Akron next) and then the rest of the season. BSU may be a nice play down the stretch as good QBs on 1-7 teams may bring good value.

        • Petefranklin

          Now their big receivers who didn’t(couldn’t because of two professionals ahead of them) see much action last year can spread their wings with a capable QB. Defenses also have to respect edwards and rthe other RB. I like BSU to totally turn their season around, and their coach is better as well.

          • Petefranklin

            Hopefully this hits 10 tomorrow, then I’m all in!

        • Petefranklin

          Don’t say I didn’t warn you about the cards.

    • Petefranklin

      6 games for a drug dealer and josh gets10 +2.

  • Art_Brosef

    In the history of Cheddar Bay, never have the stars aligned for someone in my position as they have heading into this weekend. Whereas an esteemed veteran such as myself has struggled so much out out of the gate, the public and cheddarers alike are all hilariously on one side, and said side happens to be the most deplorable university in the country. I mean honestly, this is too good to be true.

    Everyone, and by everyone i mean ESPN and the NCAA, (you decide which organization is more despicable) has their panties in a bunch over a young man selling HIS OWN FUCKING SIGNATURE to make a few bucks; all the while, the University of Oregon sells 25 different versions of Marcus Mariotas……errrrrrr…….# 8 jerseys. Utterly embarrassing. This sort of system cant, and wont, continue. But thats a different conversation for a different day.

    On the other end of the legal, moral, and just plain common sense spectrum, Notre Dame faculty and coaches have stood idly by while innocent kids die, women get raped, and nary a peep is heard from both aforementioned 4 letter institutions.

    Give me FSU -10.5 for my essay and Play of the Year. And remember this weekend as the weekend Brosef made his rightful return into the postseason picture.

    • technivore

      For the record, I think college athletes are entitled to sell their signatures for every penny they’re worth. I just can’t put myself in a situation where I’m rooting for a guy who’s had extremely believable sexual assault allegations levied against him. I mean I know many D1 football players are not saints, and I have the luxury of an alma mater whose football program is so atrocious only actual students are willing to play for them, but Jameis Winston really seems like a very bad apple, and Tallahassee a spoiled bunch indeed.

      While we’re on the subject though, what’s this about ND faculty standing by while innocent kids die and/or are raped??

    • actovegin1armstrong

      “In the history of Cheddar Bay, never have the stars aligned for someone in my position”
      You do a wonderful Ed McMahon imitation Mr Brosef.

    • mo_by_dick

      ok ok ok i see you brosef

    • Art_Brosef

      Will add:

      Boston College (+5) vs Clemson
      Army (-4.5) vs KSU
      CSU (+5.5) vs Utah St
      49ers (+6.5) vs Broncos for the All Play

  • thatsfine

    Tonight
    Temple +8 – Essay
    I’ll try to write something up real quick, but this might have to be my week off. It’s raining like hell and I’ve got a long ride home.

    • thatsfine

      A matchup of the two best defenses in AAC. Temple,#1, Houston #2. Temple is actually the #4 ranked defense in the country right now, certainly the beneficiary of a soft schedule thus far. This week they face Houston, who recently benched John O’ Korn and now have a converted WR making his second straight start after upsetting Memphis last week. Houston is also missing their #1 receiver and 2 starters on defense. This has the feel of a situation that could could swing either way, but my feeling is that a good defense with advance knowledge of the new QB will be able to adjust and keep it within a touchdown.

  • technivore

    Virginia Tech +1 over PITT (loss)
    NORTHERN ILLINOIS -11 over Miami (OH) (NIU 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games so this might be a terrible idea but only 11 over an atrocious Redhawks team feels like an overreaction)
    CENTRAL MICHIGAN -8.5 over Ball State
    49ers +6.5 over BRONCOS (AP)
    Marshall -22 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

    ESSAY
    LIONS -3 over Saints
    I know we are less about statistics than scouting in the #CheddarBay world, and also I promised myself I would essay a college game every week because what’s the fun in talking about the NFL like every other chump, but: This is the #1 ranked defense in DVOA through 6 weeks facing the #32 ranked defense. And neither of those rankings are even close by the way: Detroit is at -28.6% with the #2 defense, Denver, at -16.5%. That’s over a full standard deviation. Similarly, NO is at 22.6% with #31, Atlanta, at 16.0%. The difference between the offenses is significant, with Calvin Johnson out again this week especially, but I think that the Lions’ historically bad luck on special teams (5 of 15 on FG attempts!!) regresses at least a little to the mean. But really, throw all that stuff out the window: Ziggy Ansah is straight up destroying fools, and Suh and Fairley are still doing their thing next to him. I like the Lions to keep playing hungry, and New Orleans (coming off a bye, which I feel like this year hasn’t been an advantage for anybody, plus Graham supposedly has a shoulder injury) continuing their lost season.

    • Petefranklin

      The way that line has a stayed solidly on three you probably nailed it.

  • and still no LVH line on UTSA/LaTech. let’s use
    at LaTech -12.5 v UTSA as per these offshore lines.

    https://twitter.com/603_brown/status/523210613263069185

  • Nick

    Tennessee +16.5 vs Mississippi
    UAB +1 vs MTSU
    FIU +22 vs Marshall
    SD -4.5 vs KC
    Cinci +3 vs Indy
    ESSAY: Denver -6.5 vs SF

    This is a tough spot for the Niners who are coming off a short week having played on Monday night at Saint Louis. Now they must head back out to play at Denver, who’s well rested having had a week 4 bye, and coming off back to back wins against the Jets and Cards. San Francisco’s bye is next week and maybe the players are looking ahead a little bit. I would be. I’m convinced something is off about the 49ers this year, Harbaugh acts like a crazy person most of the time, and people like that aren’t sustainable. I speculate that once Kaep signed his deal this offseason, coach lost some of the power in the locker room. I’ll take Peyton Manning doing what he does best, which is breaking regular season records, which he could do with 3 TD passes.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts week 7:
    1) KSU +8.5 – Kansas St. is a good team. Oklahoma still TBD.
    NFL and Essay action coming soon. Have a great weekend, everyone!

    • DQuatts

      Here we go:

      Bengals +3
      Saints +3
      Bears -3
      Broncos -6.5
      Giants +6***

      ***Let’s see if we can bounce back with the GMEN this week. In all honesty the way Dallas is playing and after that debacle of a showing by New York last week, this line should be double digits. But I think we all know how well these two teams know each other. We know how these games usually come down to the 4th quarter and more often than not down to the last possession. No stats here today, more of a gut feeling. I actually think the Giants have a chance of winning this game. Although I am very impressed with Dallas so far, I am still not sold. I think this is one of those games that’s brings them back to reality a little bit and tightens up the NFC North. Giants win late in a shootout.

  • HitTheHorns

    Jacksonville Jaguars +5 ***ESSAY***

    Buy low, sell high. Look, the Browns are the lead story in this week’s MMQB! Hometown boy Bryan Hoyer won’t sign a contract extension if JFF is still on the team. Also, have you heard what the record of the Browns next three opponents are? I bet you have, and it’s because nobody will stop talking about it. The win against Pittsburgh was so great in so many ways. Unfortunately, beating the Steelers like that is just how you get Joe Public on your side (67%). Blake Bortles has a handful of games under his belt, and in the National Football League, any team can win on any given Sunday. The Jags are inching closer to that elusive first win, and its only human nature for the Browns to look ahead.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Kansas St +8.5 over Oklahoma ***
    Tennessee +16.5 over Ole Miss
    Oklahoma St +8.5 over TCU
    North Carolina +2 over Georgia Tech
    Broncos -6.5 over Niners (All play)
    Colts -3 over Bengals

    *** This line opened at 10 and has been bet down to 7 so I’ll take the extra points. Kansas St
    has been rolling lately even after that tough loss to Auburn. Meanwhile Oklahoma looked shaky in a win over Texas last week (they were outgained by over 200 yards!) and may be on a downward spiral after the tough loss to TCU which might have knocked them out of playoff contention. Kansas St is also coming in off a bye and had an extra week to prepare.

  • Matt Borcas

    Texas A&M +11.5 over Alabama
    Cincinnati -14 over SMU (This spread is way off, SMU hasn’t lost a game by less than 20 points all season)
    49ers +6.5 over Broncos

    Getting these in now …

    • Matt Borcas

      So, I’ve spent the better part of today debating whether or not to make the Irish +10.5 my POTY, and my decision is that … I won’t. Still, I”ll essay them. Starting with week one’s close victory over Oklahoma State, the Noles have looked decidedly weaker than their 2013 iteration (understandable, considering the talent that graduated) and about ready to lose one. (Seriously, giving up 41 points to NC State is a pretty egregious offense, and any Power 5 outfit should be able to score more than 37 points against the Citadel.) Anyway, the point is that FSU is far from the best team in the country, and this has been reflected in its drop from no. 1 to no. 2. When it comes to Notre Dame, I’m choosing to believe that Everett Golson’s bizarre turnover streak (9 in the past three games) is an aberration, and the real Irish defense is the one that held Stanford to 14 points and shut out Michigan, not the one that gave up 37 points to North Carolina. Having Jaylon Smith, the best LB in the country, doesn’t hurt. Also, Golson remains undefeated in the regular season and his WR corps has some legit playmakers, namely William Fuller and Corey Robinson’s (David’s son). All of which is to say that ND has the talent to to lose by 10 points or less tonight!

    • Matt Borcas

      To recap:
      ***ESSAY*** ND +10.5 over FSU
      A&M +11.5 over Bama (lose)
      Cincy -14 over SMU (win)
      49ers +6.5 over Broncos

      To round out my slate, I’ll also be taking …
      Cards -3.5 over Raiders
      Bears -3 over Dolphins

  • Chris Schroeder

    -3 Chicago vs. Miami
    +17.5 Fresno State @ Boise State
    -8 Baylor @ West Virginia
    All Play: + 6.5 San Francisco vs. Denver
    Pick of the Year: +4 Iowa @ Maryland
    Essay: -15 Michigan State @ Indiana

    Setting: Bloomington, Indiana. Stadium: Memorial Stadium, Field Turf. Capacity: 52,929 Game Time Temp: Broadcast: ESPN 3:30 ET. The Edge: MSU 43-12-1. Fun Fact: The Old Brass Spittoon is on the line (Yes I know your asking yourself what the F) The rivalry dates back to 1922 and the trophy surfaced in 1950. Michigan State graduate named Gene McDermott purchased the spittoon in an antique shop in Lansing, Michigan. McDermott procured the spittoon in order to
    avoid a let down in the game against Indiana just a week after knocking off rival Notre Dame. The Spartans won the game 35-0. And the legend was born!!! (Yes, what an amazing F-ing story!!!) The Game: Personally style points are ridiculous and arbitrary. The majority of the nation would beg to differ with that statement. All things considered for Michigan State to be entertained with the talk of making the final slot in the inaugural College Football Playoff this Spartan team needs to play a full 60 minutes of football on full throttle. Tevin Coleman is killing it on the ground and
    he will continue his campaign. He will extend his streak of 100 plus yards per game which is set at 8 and will extend his rushing touchdown streak to 16. Quarterback Chris Covington will be making his first career start and don’t look at him to air it out after a couple early interceptions. Indiana’s offense will be grounded and we will have to see what Coleman has up his sleeve. The Spartan defense will smother the Hoosiers one dimensional offense. Mark Dantonio will become the fourth member of the school’s 100-game club with the win. Spartans cover and potential to blow out the Hoosiers.

    • heads up: POTY is a super essay. in other words, you cant have an essay and a poty in the same week.

      ill enter the iowa game as a regular pick until i hear otherwise. thanks!

      • Chris Schroeder

        Sounds good. I’ll take Iowa as a regular pick and switch my POY to Michigan State. Thanks.

        • POTY on deck!!

          • actovegin1armstrong

            The Poop Deck?

  • Squeaky emailed me with Pitt.

  • Peter Markos

    FSU -10.5 OVER ND
    BUFF -5 OVER MINN
    ARI -3.5 OVER OAK
    SF +6.5 OVER DEN
    CLE -5 OVER JAX
    NE -9.5 OVER NYJ
    1. I am hoping for the Thursday night game duds to continue. Of course, this is my bonus game and I will get @@#%. The Pats have the O line in sync the last two weeks.
    2. Betting on the Browns. Homer or based on fact. I can’t tell.
    3. The Bills strength is their D line, the Vikings weakness is their O line.
    4. Carson Palmer will beat a rookie quarterback.
    5. The Broncos struggled against the Seahawks. The Niners pose a similar challenge. Boldin will be big and beat Talib when it counts.
    6. If Jamies performs again on a big stage despite all of the distractions, he deserves to be a first round pick.

  • Dave Borcas

    Va, Tech +1 tonight

  • I’m in for the Pats -9.5 tonite.

  • zarathustra

    Tempted to hold my nose with the Jets tonight, but I have a rule about playing more than one Thursday game and that game is:
    Utah -2 over Oregon St

  • mo_by_dick

    Looking for a line on the Division II game of the week on CBSSN tonight feat. my alma mater Fort Lewis College vs. Colorado School of Mines

    • actovegin1armstrong

      mo-by, How are the Mimes going to bark out the signals? I guess they will have to go with a silent count too.
      I hear they have a very annoying mascot.

      • mo_by_dick

        LOL

        • actovegin1armstrong

          A good friend of mine grew up in Durango and she went to Co School of Mines, when we first met she told me where she went to school. I said, “Wow. You will have to show me some time. Can you do it without the make-up?” I went on with this for at least ten minutes acting completely oblivious to her growing frustration. She shouted, “I have a Bachelors Degree in Petrochemical Engineering.” “Oh, Did you get that before, or after Mime School?”
          I have such a way with beautiful women. A way of making them homicidal.

  • bupalos

    I still don’t know why we lock in lines at all. People who are less concerned about their cheddar souls than squeaking out points can just do the arbitrage thing every week.

    • technivore

      I’m just avoiding that game because either way I go I’d hate myself. Either you’re hoping he doesn’t play (which to my mind violates the spirit of the contest) or hoping he does, which feels pretty gross.

    • we dont have the tech to cross ref comment timestamps with moving LVH lines.

    • Petefranklin

      Which made Actos season last year all the more impressive. He batted leadoff every week and almost won it.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Last year was dum luck. This year is running more true to form. Acto is clueless.

        • Petefranklin

          No I don’t believe in dum luck. Your instincts were well honed before the playoff pressure got to you.

  • technivore

    Virginia Tech +1 over PITT (Pitt opened 2 point home dogs.. having seen their work the last few weeks, I’ll gladly take the point to go against them. Also they plan to kneecap themselves by limiting James Conner’s touches at RB so they can use him as a DE?!?! Ugh.)

  • Rob

    Notre Dame +10.5 because I hate myself.

    • Rob

      tweeted this prior to kickoff, hope it’s kosher.

      @603_brown ohiou +3.5 #cheddarbay— RAH-lub (@rolub) October 18, 2014

    • Rob

      CAR +7
      KC +4.5
      STL +6.5 (feel like i’m on them, or at least considering, every damn week)

      Essay:
      NO +3
      I rarely ever side with the Saints; seems like they’re perpetually overvalued to me and a public darling. But maybe everyone’s finally coming around to how horrid their defense is. Getting a field goal against the Lions sans Megatron would normally put about 80% of bets on the Saints, but I don’t see anything that close, although they slightly seem to be Joe Public’s preferred side in this game. I don’t know if last week’s crapfest win over Minnesota (my losing essay pick last week) was some validation for the Lions ability to win without their MVP. What I do know is that if you ever find yourself in New Orleans heading to Mother’s for a po’boy, keep walking right by it and down Tchoupitoulas until you hit Cochon the butcher, and thank me later.

  • mo_by_dick

    ok ok ok i’ll bite on this Notre Dame +10.5 as well

    • mo_by_dick

      Patriots -9.5 — let’s keep this Thursday night blowout streak going

  • p_forever

    also it will be my essay pick.

  • p_forever

    also i’m taking ND this weekend to at your line of +10.5

  • p_forever

    ugh i sort of hate the all play – the only legit reason for it not being nd v fsu is that vegas can’t set the line.

    • Petefranklin

      Early opener was 24 or 25 this summer if I remember correctly. Sharps hit ND then too.

    • Petefranklin

      fla st was 17 at Cantor about 5 weeks ago

  • ChuckKoz

    Washington +20.5 (at Oregon)
    Ohio State -19 (vs Rutgers)
    Bears -3 (vs Dolphins)
    Panthers +7 (at Packers)
    AP: 49ers +6.5 (at Broncos)
    Essay: Seahawks -6.5 (at Rams)

    Road favorites keep sucking me in and I feel like a sucker. But then a look over at covers.com reveals road favorites are doing the best of any option this year, hitting at 58%. Then add in my love of a line like 6.5, where I probably don’t take this at 7.5, and I am feeling pretty good. Then add in the Rams coming off a short week where they were ultimately flattened by the 49ers. Mix in a little panic in Seattle, which will likely serve for some added focus and we should have a nice winner for the Hawks.

  • swig

    Congrats to 603brown moving all the way up to 2nd on the google search.

    All Play: 49ers +6.5 over BRONCOS, brain says yes, heart says no
    ESSAY: Texans +3.5 over STEELERS
    3) Nebraska -6.5 over NORTHWESTERN, game theory says don’t follow the masses, so here is my straight up guess of the week
    4) Cardinals -3.5 over RAIDERS
    5) Titans +5.5 over WASHINGTON PROFESSIONAL
    6) BROWNS -5 over Jags, I believe

    Someone could look at the standings and notice I am currently in third place. One could assume I got lucky on some coin-flip type games (probably true). However, if you dug deeper you would find that I am only following the advice of the most burger of meisters, hit your essay picks. The Texans have been competitive in their games. The Steelers are banged up and have questionable performance against lesser competition. I will take the hook on the field goal, if I was not scared I might make this my yearly pick (1-1 on fake year picks).

    • haha, what were you searching for tho?

      • swig

        Apparently houses, that was the whole front page 3 weeks ago

        /I was lazy about updating bookmarks

      • Petefranklin

        I think 603 brown st is #1 on google, it must be quite an “establishment”errr whorehouse.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    I’ll jump on notre dame +10.5 as well

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      NE -9.5 jets are awful. Brady at home on prime time vs a hated rival who talks a lot of shit. Nervous about a back door but I think Brady will bury them

  • CLEinMPLS

    Notre Dame +10.5

  • FTCMikeD

    I’ll take ND +10.5 over FSU as well. I was expecting this to be the All Play this weekend.

    • it was nominated as was colts/bengals.

      • FTCMikeD

        Totality of my picks:
        ND +10.5 over @Fla St.
        ****@Colo St -5.5 over USU****
        @Ravens – 6.5 over Falcons
        Seahawks -6.5 over @Rams
        Cardinals -3.5 over @Raiders
        AP: @Broncos -6.5 over 49ers

        *****
        So if you look at my essay picks, i’m an awful 2-5. Those 2 wins are Colorado State. So let’s go with the hot hand again with the collegiate Rams! This is probably the largest game in last 4 years for CSU. They are sitting pretty good in the MW conf and have a large homecoming matchup against Utah St tomorrow. They can take a huge step towards a conference championship with a win on Saturday. The fans should be out in force on a sunny warm Saturday afternoon; the stadium is expected to be close to full capacity. There is a bit of a revenge factor here as well, as last season they were shut out in Logan, UT by a score of 13-0.

        Now last week, CSU was going strong against Nevada, a team with a strong run defense, similar to Utah St. In the second half, CSU pumped the brakes on their passing offense and started to run the ball more. This almost let Nevada back into the game. With that fresh in their memories, the Rams should try to light it up with the pass and avoid the stout Utah St run defense. Keep an eye on WR Rashard Higgins as he’s been the main target of 5th yr SR QB Grayson. I think the Rams will put up some points and keep the difference above 5.5.

  • cwonder23

    ND +10.5 for one cheddar point please.

    • cwonder23

      ND +10.5 @ FSU
      W Michigan +16 @ UMASS (aka the only team Miami (OH) has beaten in the past two seasons.
      BGSU -2 vs W Michigan
      Cardinals -3.5 @ Raiders
      All Play: 49ers +6.5 @ Broncos
      Essay: MSU -15 @ IU
      Michigan State has failed to cover while winning in the past two weeks. Dantonios team clearly got lazy after dominating Nebraska for the first thee quarters two weeks ago and I’ll give the Purdue game a pass. Although, I believe Indiana is trending in the right direction long term, I don’t think Sparty gets complacent in this one. Connor Cook is the best QB in this one with IU starting a true freshman ( Cook would be regardless of who started for IU, but it’s even more significant). I see IU relying on running the rock a lot in the game and MSU should be ready to stop it. Hell, Iowa even beat Indiana by 16 last week. I expect the Spartans to get back to their covering ways in this one in big fashion. 38-17 Sparty.

      • cwonder23

        Obviously mean E Michigan +16 @ UMASS

        • cwonder23

          I hate to do this but I’m going to pull my ND pick and replace it with Baylor -8. I understand if Jameis is suspended, I won’t be able to get back on this. Thanks.

  • Matt Borcas

    I’ll lock in Notre Dame now too, potentially essaying/POTYing this.

  • CLEVTA

    1) I’ll go ahead and lock in ND +10.5 v FSU now before Jameis gets suspended (its happening trust me). Based on the Clemson/FSU precedent that was set, the only ones who can take ND at 10.5 would have to declare now correct?

    • we’re sticking with this covers reported LVH line.
      if the line moves drastically, we’ll adjust the cheddar line.
      ‘drastically’ to remain a subjective term.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Fresno State +17.5 over Smurf State (Boise St)
    The Great Golden Dome + 10.5 over Florida State U

    • actovegin1armstrong

      FIU +22 over Marshall

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Sons of Horseface over 49’ers for the AP

        • actovegin1armstrong

          BC +5 over Clemson
          Cinn -14 over SMU
          Please make ND over FSU my essay/exercise in futility.
          **** Character is important to me and it is also important in football. I am picking ND at least in part because of the myriad flaws in the questionable character of Famous Jameis. I also question the ND squad and their team wide scandal comparable to Ohio State’s “Tattoo Gate”, but I shall leave that for another essay. (Breaking news: You heard it here first kids. Notre Dame players have been trading “Hail Mary’s” for exam grades.)
          I do not care if Mr Winston plays or not, ND will be throwing the kitchen sink at him, granted, he has played them before, but this time it is without much of a run game and the FSU offensive line is not living up to their pre-season accolades. The Notre Dame defense will get to whomever plays quarterback for Florida State.
          FSU’s Defensive line has not looked very disciplined and that should make it easier for the Notre Dame offensive line to both protect Golson and run block. They have the size to play smash mouth football and at least keep this game close by matriculating the ball down the field via the running game. (Used as a special thank you to Hank Stram for one of my favorite childhood memories.)
          Golson’s main problem has been turnovers, they have not all been his fault and I do not expect them to continue at the same pace. The FSU secondary has looked bad too, so put together, an undisciplined defensive line, backed up by a weak secondary should mean that Golson will be able to run or throw at will. Notre Dame should not only cover, they will win.