#CheddarBay wk 7, Auburn at Missy St.

Dak+Prescott+Mississippi+State+v+Auburn+9bO2UftDW8Ql

Reminds of Jake Locker.

All play is Auburn -2.5 at Mississippi State, 330pm Saturday.

If last week’s Cheddar post helped get some attention on Laquon Treadwell, then I’m doing my job right.  Let me this week direct your attention to Dak Prescott.  Maybe it was the fact of watching their games back-to-back but when I watched Jake Locker Sunday I thought Dak Prescott.  (This is meant as a compliment to both.)  You can’t tackle either of them and they’ll trick you with some pretty good passing skills when you’re not expecting it.

LATE LINES

Three POTYs hit last week –> way to go Bupalos, Harbaugh Handshakes (Browns), and HitTheHorns (Pats).  That’s more like it, we’re back up to .500 with these (4-4).

The red line is back in the standings.  That’s your goal:  the top 20% and ties will qualify for the Cheddar playoffs.  Get and stay over the red line.

The Magic Quadrant for the NFL.

Don’t know why this hasn’t been done before by sports media somewhere.1  I’ll fine tune this but here’s a quick and dirty looking at NFL teams using talent and coaching axes on a grid.

magic quad

Click to enlarge.

Finally, I don’t usually pimp these but, I jumped on Craig Lyndall’s WFNY podcast Monday and it was a pretty fair convo/recap of the Browns-Titans game.  Do recommend.  And a big thank you to Craig for providing a do-over opportunity because the one we did at 8pm Sunday was apparently unintelligible.

GDE Error: Error retrieving file - if necessary turn off error checking (404:Not Found)

tate-loafBen Tate Mix

Frowns’ post (and essay pick) this morning got me inspired and reminded me of an observation I made last week:  Ben Tate looks like Leroy Kelly.  It is the number 44 but it’s also this here loaf of bread run.

So I went ahead and grabbed all Tate’s runs from last week.  Pretty awesome.

 

Okay, it’s game time.


  1. For that matter, I don’t know  why Gartner wouldn’t put out research notes and an analyst team on this.  After all, we’re living in a market where the Buffalo Bills are worth $1.4B. [back]

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  • Concierge

    ARK State -3

  • this week’s pick cloud.

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    Essay: rams and using my essay exemption this week

  • Art_Brosef

    In my attempt to make sure i get at least one play in the comments, Ill essay up the Niners tonight. The Rams defensive line has been solid in the last few seasons, however they have only managed one sack this entire year. They have been giving up a shitload of points, and i dont see how they keep San Francisco from scoring as the only team they managed to shut down was Tampa Bay. Either way, Davis is playing and Kaepernick should be able to move the ball. Im not sold yet on Davis, although he has most certainly been solid.

  • Matt Borcas

    Let’s finish up the week with an essay on the Niners -3.5. I’m starting to think they might be the NFC’s version of the Patriots in that they were thought to be dead and then promptly began to look like their old selves. They beat a tough Chiefs team last week on the strength of a vintage performance from Frank Gore (who has a really complementary backup in Carlos Hyde), and they get Vernon Davis back this week, the importance of which really cannot be overstated. Meanwhile, the Rams have given up at least four touchdowns in all of their games except one — and that was to the Bucs, who would struggle to compete in the Sun Belt. And as bupalos noted, the undrafted Austin Davis is their starting quarterback, which is reason enough to give the points here. Maybe the Rams should’ve snagged Johnny Football, Teddy B, or Kelvin Benjamin instead of Aaron Donald — as it turns out, you CAN have enough pass rushers.

    • Only damn fools ever thought these Niners to be dead. The rest sounds OK but I sure wouldn’t be surprised if the Niners only won by 3.

  • bupalos

    Still a chance to tread water this week despite Carr-Stank putting just enough Jeckyl into his Jeckyl-and-Hyde act to cheat me out of 3 rich and tasty Cheddars.

    Let’s mine up one last biscuit with the 49’ers. More than happy to give 3.5 to an undrafted rookie with no run game in his first monday nighter. With a fan-base that has to have already given up the season.

  • Its Only Money

    Boy do I suck, 1 point in the last two weeks. Not 1 point each week, 1 out of a possible 12. That’s all. Carry on.

  • thatsfine

    NFL play
    Chargers -7
    The only thing I’ll add is that I actually felt a sense of community pride when a huge chunk of Cheddar Bay sniffed out that UMass line yesterday. Onward and upward.

    Oh, and GO BROWNS! WIN THIS DAMN GAME!

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Dallas +8 whole lotta points for a red hot romo and solid running game.i smell aback door cover here
    Arizona -3 love this team at home don’t care who the qb is
    San Fran -3.5 sf is just the better team feel like lap will show up with a big performance on Monday night
    San Diego -7 rivers is having an impressive 2014 campaign. Why would that change today against the lowly raiders
    Essay: Browns -2
    Couple things about the steelers I’ll rehash quickly.they are a really bad team the barely beat a Jacksonville after embarrassingly blowing a latelead against the bucs the week before. They’ve lost a ton of key players over the offseason ad brought back James Harrison and kiesel off the scrap heap. Oh and they’re line blows.
    Now the Browns have an incredible offensive line and a very real weapon in the back field in Tate and the baby backs. Austin hawkins

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      Sorry accidentally hit post…

      Austin Hawkins and the Wrs are really playing well and I think it has everything to do with hoyer. This has to be the first time in forever we can say with a straight face we have a qb that can go toe to toe with big Ben

      I guess our defense kinda sucks it I have too much faith in Pettine to think the steelers will score 24 1h points against us in our house. Oh and the house will be a rocking. Go Browns.

  • bupalos

    When Chas whitehurst gives points, you take them period. Jags +4
    Can’t essay the browns, against my religion to potentially drop 3 cheds despite a 1 point win. Too morally confusing. But I’ll take them for 1 just to keep my hand in.
    Non-essay essay will be chargers -7 if I don’t get back to actually essay. Bonus point here for using essay as an adjective, verb and noun.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Jags +4
    Patriots -3
    Seahawks -8
    Cardinals -3
    49ers -3.5 (essay)

    Playing in St. Louis isn’t all that tough. Nobody in St. Louis gives a damn about the Rams as the Cardinals are doing their thing yet again in the MLB playoffs. The Rams don’t have the horses offensively to keep up with the 9ers. I got burned last week picking against the rams, but I don’t believe they will score 3 late touchdowns this week for a BS cover. 9ers know they aren’t that great this year, so they can’t overlook a game like this. They will keep their foot on the gas and make sure to put this one away in the late 3rd/early 4th qtr. Time for a drink.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Final two plays for the weekend.

    Dolphins +3.5 over Packers
    Giants +3 over Eagles ***

    *** I love living in Philly and listening to all the fans and radio shows who are so extreme about this
    Eagles team. “They are going to the win the Super Bowl.” “This team is over-rated and Foles & McCoy should be traded.” Chip Kelly does add intrigue with his offensive mind but last year people seem to forget that they their entire offensive line stayed intact all season. Now they have injuries everywhere and Foles won’t benefit from being comfortable all game long. Its happening in New England also where Brady can’t get right in the pocket. Its such an under-rated part of the game that most fans ignore. The Giants are surging right now and their defense should cause plenty of trouble for the Eagles offense. And the Giants offense has been putting up big numbers lately. I expect
    more of the same tonight with a Giant out right win.

  • FTCMikeD

    NFL plays:
    @Cardinals -3 over Redskins
    49ers -3.5 over @Rams
    *****Chargers -7 over @Raiders******
    The Raiders stink. Do I need to type much more than that? Here are some other thoughts on this matchup. David Carr is in a tough spot as his coach was fired on him after week 4. They seem ready to use Matt Schaub on a moment’s notice on him, which can’t inspire confidence. On the other side of the ball, Felipe Rios is lighting up teams left and right. That dude is on a mission. The Raiders are last in rushing yards, so there will be no relief for whoever is under center. The Chargers also have the 2nd best passing offense in the league. This just looks like a really long day for the Raiders offense. No trap game here for the Chargers, they know their schedule gets much tougher down the stretch. Playing a hated division rival should help to avoid the let down as well. Did I mention that the Raiders stink?

  • squeekycleen

    Glad we only had the all play in college yesterday because otherwise couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Squares rejoice. The rest here:

    All play: Tampa Bay Bucs: No doubt the Bucs stink. Terrible team. Terrible coach. Inexperienced QB. You name it, they stink at it. Well I guess they have tall receivers, isnt that something? Even better, they have left no doubt they are terrible with several abysmal performances and that outrageously bad Thursday night stink fest a few weeks ago. Still, though, they have some potential and should improve over the course of the season as this relatively young team gains some experience and becomes more comfortable with the new coaching staffs gameplanning and schemes. Flip side you have the Ravens, who I am also not convinced are very good here laying over a FG on the road. It seems like a pretty easy spot to take the better team in a game they should win. I’m not convinced and will go with the terrible Bucs. They fit in nicely with what looks to be a pretty appealing anti-public card this Sunday.

    Rest: Bengals, Bills, Dolphins, Rams

  • zarathustra

    Patriots -3 over Bills***
    The Patriots have been pretty awful on the road for a while now. Last year they would have covered this number in two of their 9 road games (including playoffs). And of course this year has seen them drop the turd in Miami and the nationally televised massacre in Kansas City. Though they have dominated the Bills for over a decade now, they just barely escaped their last trip to Buffalo. The Bills may finally be turning things around with Doug Marrone and there are definitely signs of decline with the Patriots. Moreover, the Bills’ greatest team strength–the front seven–should be poised to exploit a substandard Pats line. There is every reason to take the home dog against a division rival.
    But why try to catch a falling knife? Trends always reverse eventually, but this is a powerful trend–brady has won 8 of his last 9 visits to Buffalo. I would need to see more from the Bills to step out in front of this one. And no, Jim Schwartz’s triumphant return to Detroit doesn’t qualify. (As an aside: I have no idea what Belichick’s record is against teams with former slappies in prominent positions, but I suspect it isn’t favorable to the slappies. )
    Ultimately, for me this all comes down to that Monday night in KC. I remember thinking before that game that it was one Belichick might not mind losing. And lose they did, in most spectacular fashion. Now, I in know way believe that he threw the game. Just that after the fact he was probably the happiest man in the America that night. His team lost a relatively meaningless September game, but that is a small price to pay the players being embarrassed on national tv and a whole week of magnified media attention doing his bidding. Bill Belichick is a football freak and it probably frustrates the hell out of him trying to find ways to motivate a team soft on years of winning. That game gave him a priceless opportunity to crawl back inside his team’s psyche so that he could go full Parcells on them. I’ll wager the memories of that game will not have faded after only a week and that they still feel they have plenty to prove in their first road game since that night.

    • zarathustra

      Hmmm. Let’s make this my POTY.

      • Foolish!

        • zarathustra

          Foolish because it wasn’t even my original essay? Foolish because before I wrote it I was pretty sure I was going to pick another game altogether? Or because it is a public team laying points on the road? Or because I am obviously chasing the red line? Or just foolish because you hate tom brady despite his sexy smile and bedroom eyes?
          Either way, the bills are most definitely the “smart” play, but foolish wagers hit often enough. I’m happy to side with the squares for my POTY.

  • ChuckKoz

    Kanicki (as you will always be in my eyes),
    Please stop with these SEC All Plays. 2 Reasons:
    1) It buys into the self-fulfilling prophecy that its the best conference cause of all the high rankings. But the reality is these SEC teams are all not so great. It reminds me of how OSU and UM of were considered for a rematch in 2006, because, according to many, they were clearly the 2 best teams. Ends up that clearly wasnt true, but the early season polls just favored them and their weak out of conference. Same thing here.
    2) I can’t take looking at these fucking SEC college students anymore. Every white kid looks like the villain in a teenager movie. I cannot be forced to watch these kids in joy anymore. Even if everything in point one is not accurate, we shouldn’t have to be subject to seeing these douchebag kids from Mississippi/Alabama/etc be happy.

    • We don’t have to worry about me running amok with all-play as it is truly a committee decision. I was informally stripped of rule-by-fiat after last years ‘We’re going to Ypsi’ post. But re your points:

      1. D’yer see the OleMiss defense last night? They beat every Shurmur Browns team and the non-Hoyer Chud Browns.
      2. I’m of the belief that every student body can rise to SEC heights of douche-baggery if given just a smidgen of success.

      • ChuckKoz

        all i know is that when you rank 10 SEC schools to start the year, of course there is going to be “big matchups” every week. and when one of the teams ranked highly for no clear reason loses, they are still top 10. meanwhile, U of A looks like a fine football team and will probably fall outside the top 20 after losing its first game to USC.
        Man, I really wish this were an 8 team playoff. I could see 3 SEC schools being in this 4 team thing. In the alternative, they should have said only 1 team from each conference can get into the playoff (that would really preserve the integrity of the regular season, which proponents of this 4 team system claim to so important).

        And I did pick Auburn, solely because I wanted to see those kids on TV go home sad. I am not a great human, but neither are they.

        • ChuckKoz

          FSU/Dame looking quite interesting next week……but perhaps dealing with another changing line crisis?

        • You are the best, Chuck. The best.

  • Tim Butler

    auburn -2.5 over MISS ST.
    OREGON -2.5 over ucla
    CLEMSON -9.5 over louisville

    3 NFL picks including essay to come later tonight/tomorrow morning

    • Tim Butler

      Actually, take me off clemson please. I don’t know how to do a fancy strike though like some others on cheddar bay. 4 NFL picks tomorrow.

      • Tim Butler

        NFL picks:

        BILLS +3 over patriots
        DOLPHINS +3.5 over packers
        chargers -7 over RAIDERS

        ESSAY:

        BROWNS +1.5 over steelers

        I live in Buffalo, and the stat I keep hearing this week is Tom Brady’s amazing record against the Bills, 2nd best all-time for a QB versus one team since the merger, 2nd only to… Roethlisberger versus the Browns. But not anymore. Today is the day my friends, when the downtrodden finally awake. Today, the Bills and Browns have finally matured. They are the 15 year old boy who can finally beat up his older sister who’s been picking on him his whole life. Today we punch that older sister in the kidney, and say, enough is enough. We want our divisions back. Go Bills and Browns. Lake Erie unite.

  • thatsfine

    UMass followers… The UMass twitter feed reports they are using their backup punter as a kicker today. It’s going to be a classic game for certain!!!

  • All Play – Miss. State +2.5
    Kansas +20.5
    Arkansas +10

    **Essay**OU +1.5
    This is homecoming weekend for not only my Alma Mater, Marietta, but for the Bobcats as well who were just up the road from us. I didn’t make to Athens often during my tenure in the Mid-Ohio Valley but when I did – I always loved it. The rolling hills, the ice rink, the indie movie theater, and the closest Chipotle. Somehow – I’ve never partied at OU but I think this is probably for the best, as I get into enough trouble in towns not nationally renowned for their party scene. It’s a beautiful fall weekend and I think the Bobcat men’s football team is going to give them a reason to celebrate that they didn’t even need.

  • HitTheHorns

    Auburn for the all play

  • bupalos

    Auburn
    UMass

  • Matt Borcas

    Auburn
    Oregon

    NFL/essay tomorrow

    • Matt Borcas

      Browns
      Chargers
      Cowboys

      Essay to come!

  • Nick

    Texans (L)
    Miss St +2.5 vs Auburn
    Penn St. over Michigan
    Arkansas +10 vs Bama

    • Nick

      Jags +4 vs Titans
      Falcons -3 vs Bears

      I touched base with a big time Bears fan in Chicago to see how he was feeling about this game. “Horrible”, he said, “but I have Devin Hester starting in my fantasy league and think he will score at least twice.” Add this with the fact that Lance Briggs is out, and Bostic is questionable so the Bears will be forced to play some really green linebackers. So an average to bad Bears defense is playing this game without several starters including their captain (Briggs). I’m certainly not high on the Falcons but I do love the Devin Hester factor. Gimme Devin Hester and the home crowd over da bears.

  • FTCMikeD

    My College Picks:
    AP: Auburn -2.5 over @Missy St
    TCU +8.5 over @Baylor

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Miss st +2.5

  • Petefranklin

    To all the MINUTEMEN backers, something is going on here as I just got Umass +3.5(glad I waited)

    Is the Kent QB with a concussion playing??

    I need a lines service w/injuries

    • thatsfine

      Colin Reardon has practiced some the past two days and “may or may not start”, either way is expected to be available.

  • Andy Rhode

    Miss. St. +2.5
    Chargers –7
    Cowboys +8
    Denver +8.5
    Oregon –2.5
    Vikings +2 (Essay)

    Despite all the Peterson drama and an ass-kicking by the Packers last Thursday, there’s a little Minnesota momentum right now. The team is well rested, coming off a week and a half off. Teddy Bridgewater will start his second game of the season and once again, he gets to do so at home where he had success in his first game. And the Vikings always seems to sneak out wins at home against the Lions, having won 3 in a row and four of the last five in the Twin Cities.

    While the Detroit defense is a top 10 D, their offense has to get by without Calvin Johnson. The Vikings D has struggled against the run, but not having to worry about the best receiver in the league should make things easier.

  • shoseph

    All Play: Auburn (-2.5) vs. Mississippi St.

    Rest o’ the bets to come before Sunday morning kickoff.

    • shoseph

      Steelers (+2) vs. Browns
      Essay: Chargers (-7) vs. Raiders
      Falcons (-3) vs. Bears
      Seahawks (-8) vs. Cowboys
      Cardinals (-3) vs. Washington

      As a kid growing up in Oregon in the 80s and early 90s, it was difficult to pick a team to root for. Geographical distance made cheering for the California teams a bit difficult. Traditional support of the Portland Trailblazers made me dislike any LA sports teams instantly (sorry Rams and LA-era Raiders). The Seahawks were consistently terrible through my childhood, enough so to be known as the “Shithawks”. I suppose I liked the Joe Montana-era 49ers because little kids like winners, and they were certainly winners.

      But what of the Chargers and of the Oakland Raiders? Well, firstly I don’t think I knew exactly where San Diego was and what it was good at (apparently consistent 80-degree weather and fish tacos). Puffy Raiders starter jackets were a thing at middle school, worn by the kids who would later go on to work at gas stations and appear on mugshots.com. So, given the relative stabiness of Raiders fans and troublesome childhood memories, I’m going with the Chargers as my unscientific pick of the week.

  • zarathustra

    Auburn -2.5 over Mississippi St
    Another week and another all-play I have no interest in playing in real life. Not a complaint.  This should definitely be the game. I don’t have any idea.

    Iowa St -2.5 over Toledo
    Iowa St is better than their record shows.

    Bowling Green -1.5 over Ohio
    This has sucker written all over it. Ohio isn’t as bad as they looked last week and are home, but all go with the sexy offense on the road.

    Washington +3.5 over Cal
    Cal is a young team coming off a hard fought road win. I lot to like with this team and they should be undefeated,  but this is the best defense they will have seen thus far. Oh, and a Chis Petersen team coming off a tough loss….with rest.

    North Carolina +17 over Notre Dame
    Irish have a very good defense to be sure, but what offenses have they faced? Rice, Michigan,  Purdue,  Syracuse, and Stanford.  The Stanford offense is decent enough, but the other four are pretty pretty pretty shitty. North Carolina could be classified as a shitty team at this point but their offense is pretty good–and it will be the best that the Irish have seen thus far. I think Carolina can muster at least a couple touchdowns and a field goal and that should be enough for the cover.

    • zarathustra

      All for 1 point. Essay tomorrow.

  • PENN STATE PK. Played like garbage last week. I think they are at least ONE point better than Michigan.
    RICE -1. Not the slightest clue why.
    AUBURN -2.5. While I think the Dogs are good, I think this one comes down to coaching. And Gus Malzahn trumps Dan Mullen.
    OREGON -2.5. This is about the time in the season when Jim Mora’s team tacks on a few L’s in a row.
    CHARGERS -7. Short trip up the coast. Strong in all the places Oakland isn’t.

    CHARLIE MUNGER MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:
    BRONCOS -8.5.
    I’ve asked the question before, but would you trade the privilege of being a top-10 NFL receiver on a team that’s guaranteed a playoff spot, playing alongside one of the best ever to suit up–would you give up all that for the incremental increase in pay that comes with committing to Geno and Rex? Sounds like accepting five years of punishment for a few extra million. Even if Geno and Rex don’t last for Eric Decker’s entire contract in Jersey, starting over with the roster they’ve got could be brutal.

    While Rex’s defense is better than most, we know the NFL has become a league driven by quarterback play and rules directed and increasing point totals. This hasn’t helped the Jets. Both teams in this matchup can stop the run, but neither is overly impressive against the pass. So when the game comes down to who’s better through the air–especially once the Jets are down multiple scores–who are you putting money on?

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Mississippi St +2.5
    Boston College +4.5
    Arizona +2.5
    Michigan pk
    Bengals -7
    Falcons -3 (Essay)

    I’d like to thank the Cowboys for saving me from a Virgin Lobsterita bath last week. This week, the Falcons take on da Bears at home after losing to the Giants last week. Granted they’re in a weak division, however they’re expected to be a contender. The Bears are just not putting it together – they’ve been a good team the last few years but it’s time to rebuild (only they can’t admit it to their fan base). The Falcons are too talented and explosive to not win at home this week.

  • posting for FlyHighCharlieFrye:

    All play: Miss St
    Raiders
    UMass
    Mizzou
    Marshall
    Texas A&M -1.5
    I don’t know if Kenny Trill is any good, but I know Kevin Sumlin is. And I know A&M got blown out last week and Ole Miss beat Alabama and that’s exactly why I like the Aggies. The hangover. As soon as I saw that goalpost being passed around I looked to see who Ole Miss plays this week and here I am. Ole Miss clearly has talent but I still don’t trust the QB. There’s also a thought — blasphemy, I know — that maybe Alabama isn’t good. I’m certainly not good at Cheddar this year but this one has all the ingredients of getting that changed around. We’ll see, but I’ll bet on Ole Miss having an empty tank.

  • trashycamaro

    College picks to make the cut off, NFL shortly:

    1. College/AP: AUB -2.5 at Miss State. If you had seen the way MSU fans got excited over a Bowl Game win over Michigan, you would understand what “never been there before meant”. Also, see 1-17 record all time against top 2 teams and, while I do not have it handy, their record against top 25 teams further enforces the point. To have Auburn only laying 2.5 is a gift. Take it. (BTW, I also said last week there was no way Ole Miss could keep up with Bama, so take it FWIW). (Not essay).

    4. UMass +2 over Kent State. Nice essay thatsfine/GRR.

    • trashycamaro

      2. Essay: SD -7 over OAK. Taking candy from a baby. Seriously. Philip is Rivers the number one ranked QB in any metric that matters. His offensive line keeps the pocket clean (adjusted sack rate less than 4%, top 10 overall). RB #4 is even bringing some hope to the running game (seriously, how could we not do any better than McGahee last year?). The defense is even up to middling in DVOA this year (13th) from 32nd last year. Oakland is bad at defense (#22 by DVOA) and worse at offense (#31 by DVOA). The Raiders ARE better at special teams – #6 vs. SD’s #17 – but neither team has game changing special teams in either direction. At -7, this only misses POTY status by being a road game for SD.

      3. Den -8.5 over NYJ. I promise, I really do like the Jets, and will take them again later this year. But not against the elite team of the AFC. This line should really be double digit. While DEN won’t be running anywhere, they are only allowing 3% adjusted sack rate on Peyton while the Jets are allowing double that. NYJ are the number one pass rushing team in the league, but that’s what you have Peyton for. Even if the Denver offense sputters, I could see a 10-0 win, although my guess would lean towards the 20-3 variety if the Jets defense plays well.

      5. Miami +3.5 over GB. Home dog alert. Dolphins have the #8 defense by DVOA overall, #4 against the run, and only #14 against the pass. BUT. They are #5 in adjusted sack rate. What does GB struggle against on offense? GB is 21st in adjusted sack rate allowed on the offensive line. While I am here, the GB o-line is also 20th in run blocking with a power rank at number 30. Look for the strong fins defensive front seven to keep the game close and take advantage of that extra 1/2 point tacked on the line at home.

      6. Minn +2 over DET. Home dog alert. Lets review the Lions injury report real quick: Fauria out, Megatron “Doubtful”, Bush questionable, Bell probable (after concussion), and another RB probable with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile the Vikes get Bridgewater back along with Patterson. DET’s defense is number one overall in DVOA, but look for Teddy to make some plays with Patterson. (Side note – I would like to take credit for the Mock Draft post where I wrote the Vikes should take either Barr or Bridgewater in the first round, and the Vikings, hearing wisdom, took both).

  • CLEVTA

    The beauty of this contest. 17-0 ticket count on a UMASS team that essentially needs to win who has gone 2-28 in their last 30.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts Week 7:

    Miss St. +2.5
    Baylor. -8.5
    Colorado St. -1.5

    Money pick and NFL action to come later. Have a great weekend, fellas!

    • DQuatts

      DQuatts rounding out the week!

      Cowboys +8
      Rams +3.5
      Giants +3***

      ***decisions…..decisions….do I make my essay about how much the Eagles are struggling or how well the Giants are playing?! Both will suffice, but I’ll stick with the Giants right now. Eli is in a groove, they have established their run game of old, and their defense is playing with a new sense of pride. A few weeks ago the Eagles were 5.5 favorites traveling to San Francisco….now they are somehow only 3 point favorites at home against the G-Men?? Seems a little odd. Mostly I think teams have figured out the ‘Chip Kelly’ offense and Nick Foles isn’t that great of a QB. With McCoy banged up, it is going to take a great defensive performance to keep the Eagles in this game…for a 3rd straight week?! I don’t think so. Gimme the GGGGG-Men and the points and let’s go!

  • Dave Borcas

    The rest of my picks……
    LSU-1
    Auburn -2.5 (all play)
    Denver Broncos -8.5
    New England -3
    Alabama -10 (essay)
    Nick Sabin and me have a lot in common these days. While he tries to get Bama back to the top team in the country, he must first get back to being the top team in the SEC. I also must right the ship and start getting some picks correct to get back in this cheddar bay contest. When I saw the stat that Bama has outscored Arkansas 104-0 over the last 2 years it just jumped out at me. Now everyone knows that college teams can change drastically from year to year. My use of logic and statistics has also been way off this year when picking winners. Just like a hard headed Nick Saban, I will stick with my use of match up stats to lead my way. Arkansas has a great running game, one of the best in the country, That running game still leaves them as a one dimensional team. Bama has the number 3 rush D in the country and should defiantly slow down that high powered running game. Bama also had some issues defending the hurry up O, which they should not see from a running team. I am declaring this turn around Saturday for Nick Sabin and me. Roll Tide and Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Browns!

  • Chris Schroeder

    All Play: -2.5 Auburn @ Mississippi State
    -21 Michigan State @ Purdue
    -10 Alabama @ Arkansas
    -1.5 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi
    -15 Oklahoma vs. Texas

    Essay: -20.5 Oklahoma State @ Kansas

    Setting: Lawrence, Kansas. Stadium: Memorial Stadium, Field Turf. Capacity: 50, 071. Game Time Temp: 63 & Partly Sunny. Series History: OSU 39-29-1. Fun Fact: The term ‘Jayhawk’ was probably coined about 1848. The name combines two birds, the blue jay (a noisy, quarrelsome thing known to rob other nests) and
    the sparrow hawk (a stealthy hunter). Game Time: Lawrence, Kansas isn’t going to be a happy place for the Jayhawk fans on this Saturday. Daxx Garman will come out on fire and erase the costly mistakes he made last week that kept the Iowa State Clowns in the game. This is a prime game for the offense to find their stride before facing high power offenses of TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma. Kansas has been reeling losing to West Virginia and Texas being out scored by 56-14 and circumstances get a lot tougher when you fire your coach a fourth of the way through a season. The offense is one of the most lethargic in the nation ranking 115 in passing yards per game, 70th in rushing yards and 124th in points per contest. The Cowboys roll with sights on next weeks match up with the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas.

    • I missed entering these yesterday, sorry.

      GOOD NEWS! You have to pick an NFL team. Per convention, I’ll drop your last non-essay/allplay pick, Oklahoma.

  • ALL PLAY: Missy St. +2.5 over Auburn: Just one point here. I have no real clue about how these teams match up against each other so as much as I think Auburn could be the best team in the SEC, as much as I know I’m not the only one who thinks that, and as easy as it is for anyone to see how much more easily Auburn handled LSU than Missy St. did, I have to ask, why is this spread only 2.5 with so much of the public on Auburn? Given certain potential answers to this question I’ll just shrug and root for a big party in Stark Vegas today.

    Back with 5 Not For Longs by tomorrow, including essay.

  • CLEVTA

    1) Texans L
    2) Auburn -2.5 (all play)

    3) Miami FL -14.5 (Essay)- Kiel doubtful and not sure Munchie can hang in a game where UC’s horrific D will allow a ton of points to Miami coming off an L Miami is 21st on off pass yds/play, while UC D ranks 124th nationally. Memphis has a mediocre offense and UC allowed them to walk all over them last week, allowing 610 yds. This will get really ugly fast

    4) UAB -6.5- A case of misleading stats. On the surface N Texas looks to have a solid D based on their rankings. If you look deeper adjust the stats for opponents you will see they are much worse than the numbers indicate. Their schedule includes a bad TX offense, La Tech and SMU. Last week when they finally played a real offense, they got smoked for almost 600 yds and 49 pts.
    5) FIU +12.5: this over under is only 40 so lots of value getting 12.5 pts
    6) Vikes +2

    • CLEVTA

      Gunner has just been announced as playing so please keep Miami pick but its no longer my essay. Make UAB my essay thanks

  • The Iron Sheik

    Michigan pk
    Nd -17
    Browns -2
    Michigan state -21
    Auburn -2.5
    Bama-10

    It’s time for Nick Saban to enforce his will on his kids and give Arkansas good old fashioned ass whipping. I was in a crowded bar last weekend and couldnt hear all the names but from what I saw is bama played well and if it wasn’t for a couple oddities followed by a few tough breaks bama wins the game. So that didn’t happen and the home team gets a big win and fans storm the field. Get the spit ready midfield – it’s time for a pig roast.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Three more for today:
    Miss St. +2.5 over Auburn (All play)
    Rice -1 over Army
    Baylor -8.5 over TCU

  • thatsfine

    MACtion and middling non-Power-5 conference teams… my kind of week.

    All-play: Auburn -2.5 – I don’t know what to do with this one besides stay on the better side of 3 and hope for a letdown spot. Should be a great game.
    UBuff -12
    Houston +9
    MTSU +23.5
    UMass +2 – PICK OF THE YEAR
    Mentally, I wrote this one week ago after the Miami game was over. Why hang my POTY on an 0-6 team? A team that was 1-11 last year and the year before, an annual threat to run the table backwards? Well… who can say they’ve watched the Minutemen play football two weeks in a row? Nobody but their parents, me, (and apparently, GRR). I’ve wagered on them the past two weeks and thus watched the games, and both have been fun viewing. I’ve learned they can score: averaging 27.7/game this season. Especially the past two weeks against BG and Miami, losing 47-42 and 42-41. Earlier this year they scored lots of points and held late leads against Vandy and Colorado, losing both games by a field goal. Last week they should have defeated Miami, leading 41-14 at one point. But Miami stormed back and UMass collapsed. With a chance to kick a game winning FG on the Miami 10 with 3 seconds left they tried for the TD and came up short. It’s not surprising they couldn’t seal the deal last week – UMass hasn’t been in a position to win a game very often since joining FBS. This week at KSU looks like a rare opportunity. UMass has a senior QB averaging 318 YPG passing, with a 6-4 WR and a 6-7 TE to throw to. The receivers absolutely killed BG and Miami, and I don’t think Kent has anyone to cover them either. UMass can score, and when a team can score it’s only a matter of time before a breakthrough. They’ve been so close, 364 days since their last victory… look out for the Minutemen this week.
    NFL pick later

  • squeekycleen

    All play is Auburn. Will post the rest of them on Sunday.

  • Concierge

    UMASS +2 Essay
    CMU +9
    Auburn -2.5
    Cal -3.5
    FIU +12.5
    Dolphins +3.5

    Umass is just the better team here. Kent State is going to be on their third QB in this game and I believe that will be a huge factor. Umass can score..and they can score a ton. Blake Frohnapfel is playing at an elite level. He is a Marshall transfer who has thrown for 1,000 yards and 9 TD’s the last two games. If the defense is able to slow down a 3rd QB for Kent I can see them running away with this one. Mark Whipple gets it done at Dix stadium.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. Arkansas +10
    2. Arizona +2.5
    3. Green Bay -3.5
    4. Chargers -7
    5. All Play: Auburn -2.5
    6. Essay: Denver -8.5

    Peyton has to be drooling every time he thinks about this weeks match up against the NY Jets. The Jets, who are tied with Jacksonville for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed, are in trouble this week when the future hall of famer comes to town. I dont see them being able to stop Peyton and I also dont see the Jets being able to keep up with the scoring. Gino stinks, Vick is old & Decker has a nagging injury..enough said. Hopefully the 1 o’clock EC game doesn’t effect the Broncos and they roll to victory.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    AP Auburn -2.5 Miss State
    Ravens -3 Bucs
    **Steelers +2 Browns
    Bengals -7 Panthers
    Seabirds -8 Cowboys
    Dolphins +3.5 Packers

    **Man, it sure was easier in years past to find an interesting game to essay that didn’t have any Browns playing in it. But that little part of my brain that’s labeled “football” is full up with these guys right now. Happily, and thanks to the Browns crazy final point score margins to date (3, 2, 2, and 1), I can still stick to my new strategy of choosing and thereby damning the other AFC North teams. Why? Because the Kardiac GrandKids will once again try to kill all of us and win by 1 point in another barn burner on Sunday. HOW DO YOU LIKE US NOW?

    AP Auburn -2.5 Miss State
    Ravens -3 Bucs
    **Steelers +2 Browns
    Bengals -7 Panthers
    Seabirds -8 Cowboys
    Dolphins +3.5 Packers

    **Man, it sure was easier in years past to find an interesting game to essay that didn’t have any Browns playing in it. But that little part of my brain that’s labeled “football” is full up with these guys right now. Happily, and thanks to the Browns crazy final point score margins to date (3, 2, 2, and 1), I can still stick to my new strategy of choosing and thereby damning the other AFC North teams. Why? Because the Kardiac GrandKids will once again try to kill all of us and win by 1 point in another barn burner on Sunday. HOW DO YOU LIKE US NOW?

  • jdoepke

    Fresh off of Gartner Symposium this week so the Magic Quandrant is very timely…nice work. Although is there some bias on where the Browns are related to Bengals when it comes to coaching? 3 playoff appearances in a row vs how many new coaches in how many years? Just sayin…

    I don’t love my picks this week but here we go…
    Miss St. +2.5 (AP)
    Kansas +20.5
    Washington +3.5
    Bears +3
    Dolphins +3.5

    Texas +15 (Essay)
    There is absolutely zero logic here. I don’t think Charlie Strong is a good coach, Oklahoma coming off a loss, Oklahoma has absolutely dominated this series as of late. There is that little glimmer of hope that close to 80% of the public is on the Sooners and in a rivalry game I think more than 2 TD’s is too much. Texas keeps it close but loses in the end. Oklahoma 27 Texas 19.

    Other considerations:
    Georgia
    UCLA
    Arkansas
    North Carolina
    Toledo (had this been 3 or 3.5 probably would’ve played it)
    Cuse +24
    Raiders +7
    Bills +3
    NYG +3

    • “Although is there some bias on where the Browns are related to Bengals when it comes to coaching? 3 playoff appearances in a row vs how many new coaches in how many years?”

      Nope.

  • Capitalgg

    Let’s review last week… Umm that was a disaster, but at least I hit my essay. And hey, Nashville is one hell of a town! Wow Browns! Way to win a bizarre one!

    Good enough, let’s move on.

    All-Play: Auburn -3 @ Mississippi St.: Like what Missy St. did last week to TAMU (bad BTW), but Auby is the class of the conference (and might be the only really good team in the conference). Almost my essay, but I chickened out because the Tigers are the road team.

    Essay: Minnesota -3.5 v. Northwestern

    Why am I doing this? What is wrong with me? #B1G #B1G #B1G matchup here (and I don’t mean that as a positive). This game will remind you of football in the 1980s or maybe 1950s. Power football is back baby!

    Anyway, the Gophers should simply overpower a Wildcat team that has appeared to play above its weight class the last 2 weeks beating both Penn St and Wisconsin. But the Gophers have had the week off and the smart kids should be primed for a letdown after the big win at home last week against the Badgers.

    Love the program Jerry Kill has built in Minneapolis and think they send a message about where Pat Fitzgerald’s club sits in the Big Ten West pecking order.

    1. Clemson -9.5 v. Louisville: Clemson has a ridiculous record (can’t remember exact numbers now) ATS when favored by 10+ under Dabo which is where this number started (11.5).
    2. UMass +2 @ Kent St.: What GRR said about a spectacular #MACtion spot.
    3. Bills +3 v. Patriots: Playing the spot here. Pats in letdown spot. Bills D-line should harass Brady all day.
    4. Duke +4 @ Georgia Tech: This number opened at 6 and is down as far as 3 in some places. So either a bad line or bad action.

    Other plays:
    UCLA +3 v. Oregon
    Missouri +3 v. Georgia
    Indiana +3.5 @ Iowa
    Jets +10.5 v. Broncos
    Louisiana-Monroe +21.5 @ Kentucky
    LSU -1 @ Florida

  • chuckycrater

    My picks are such ass this year. I wouldn’t even write an essay this week because no one should be listening to me right now, but there’s one pick I feel pretty strongly about.

    ALL PLAY: Auburn -2.5 vs. Mississippi State #GodThing

    Minnesota -3.5 vs. Northwestern
    Clemson -9.5 vs. Louisville
    Missouri +3 vs. Georgia (I would have made this pick regardless of Gurley’s status but that certainly doesn’t hurt)
    Chargers -7 vs. Raiders

    ESSAY: Baylor -8.5 vs. TCU

    Last week was probably about as bad as Baylor’s passing game can be. Texas also kept their offense off the field for long stretches (Baylor basically only had one possession in the second quarter). In past years I think the Bears would have kept throwing, melted down in a semi-hostile environment, and maybe lost that game. Instead they downshifted, ran for almost 300 yards, and won pretty easily.

    Let’s also talk about that TCU win over Oklahoma, which I watched instead of Ole Miss-Bama. That was more of an upset than you might be led to believe. The Frogs got two defensive touchdowns, and Trevor Knight was horrible in the second half (8-for-22, a ton of inaccurate balls) to make the Sooners one-dimensional. And I really don’t know long Trevone Boykin can keep throwing dimes for TCU. I’ve watched him play maybe 10 times since he took over as the starting QB and he has never been anywhere near as good as he was against Oklahoma. The whole team just played out of their minds to win that game.

    Now the Frogs are sky-high, overrated, and somewhat public. They haven’t gone on the road yet this year (at SMU was basically another home game), and Baylor has something to prove against a team that everyone is suddenly declaring to be the perfect defense to slow down Baylor. Plus the line has been breaking in TCU’s favor all week. Sic ’em Bears.

  • p_forever

    here we go go go:

    ****w.va. -6 texas tech
    auburn -2.5 miss st
    ga tech -4 duke
    ole miss +1.5 texas a&m
    LSU -1 fla
    new england -3 buffalo

    i’m pretty tempted to make this my no-essay week- we get one of those, right? it’s just that this pick came to me pretty easily this time around. the mountaineers are better in every single category than texas tech – better offense, better defense, and better special teams (and they are better by sort of a lot). plus w.va.’s coach started his career at texas tech, so you know this game is a big deal for him. plus w.va. has been good all year against teams that are generally a lot better than texas tech. in a weekend that seems destined for lots of drama and down to the wire finishes, this is a close to a sure thing as you can get.

  • So here’s the games that caught my eye this week.

    WVU -6 at TTU
    Duke +4 at GT
    1. +*UB -12 at EMU
    BG -1.5 at Ohio
    ArkSt -10 at GaSt
    Oregon -2.5 at UCLA
    at Clemson -9.5 Lville
    2. +at MissySt +2.5 Auburn
    at ND -17 UNC
    *OkSt -20.5 at KU
    CMU +9 at NIU
    3. +*UW +3.5 at Cal
    at GaSo -21.5 Idaho
    ECU -15 at USF
    PSU pk at Mich
    LSU +1 at UF
    UCONN +3 at Tulane
    4. +*at UTEP -3 ODU

    5. Essay. +***OleMiss +1.5 at TAMU
    As reported in this space last week: the changing of the guard in the SEC took place last Saturday. However even after witnessing this, the betting public refuses to believe it. Let me get this straight: Team A is coming off of a beat over the #1 team in the country and Team B lost by 17 last week…. and Team B is favored? Is that a typo?
    TAMU gave up 48 points to Clanga.. only USM let MissySt score more. Is OleMiss’ offense QB’d by Bo Wallace throwing to Laquon Treadwell hurrying up with Hugh Freeze better than or worse than Mullen/Prescott? I say better. OleMiss got 320 yds on Bama; TAMU gave 560 yds to Dan Mullen.
    And while MissySt is known more for their defense, OleMiss does have a couple Nkemdiche they can throw at you. Put it this way: OleMiss total defense is #5; TAMU is #75.
    And finally I laugh at the “Ole Miss let down game” talk because IT IS PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LET DOWN ON GAME DAY AT KYLE FIELD.
    In short: OleMiss can out Sumlin Sumlin’s offense and still play some defense. TAMU, no. Ole Miss didn’t play a great game last week and still won. They won’t wilt in the spotlight now.
    Take note: Much as I am WDE I am also Hugh Freeze and I am Clanga.. and I am telling you the national championship game is this year’s Egg Bowl in Oxford at the end of November.

    at Hawaii -3.5 Wyo

    Colts -3 at Texans
    Ravens -3 at Bucs
    *Broncos -8.5 at Jets
    Pats -3 at Bills
    at Browns -2 Steelers
    *Chargers -7 at Raiders
    Cowboys +8 at Seahawks
    Final pro pick TBD.

  • HitTheHorns

    1) Houston Texans +3 (Loss)

    2) Cincinnati Bengals -7

    3) Miami Dolphins +3.5

    4) Buffalo Bills +3

    5) USC -2.5: **ESSAY**

    What are the pollsters doing?!?! How can Arizona go from unranked to #10 in the country? This is the BIGGEST overreaction to a win I have ever seen. It worries me that the final four will be determined by peoplethat actually review these polls. Hats off to Arizona for going to Oregon and
    winning straight up as three TD underdogs, but let’s take a step back. Oregon had shown in recent weeks that they were vulnerable, and it was only a matter of time before they lost. Arizona has only beat UTSA by 3, Nevada by a TD, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal by 4. Speaking of Hail Mary’s, USC is coming into this one off a Hail Mary loss. I happened to catch this ending live. If
    you didn’t, here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmydnz2fi8k. It could be an instructional video on how to exactly field a Hail Mary as a receiver, and how NOT to defend one. And then there are articles like this where the media just can’t believe that a top ten team would be an underdog at home vs. an unranked opponent: http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/08/on-the-road-unranked-usc-favored-over-no-10-arizona/. I love the little nugget in here where the sportsbooks had this game at a TD a week ago. And we get to lay less than a field goal?!?! Yes, please.

    6) All play will be posted on Saturday

  • GRRustlers

    Week 7 Picks

    AP – Auburn (-2.5) over MSST

    PICK OF THE YEAR

    Had to patiently wait this one out all week…not because I was concerned about an injury…but mainly wanted to make sure awful weather would not be in play. Here goes…

    Every year I try and find a team to make my darling that I think has no business even being a D1 team. I failed miserably this year. Some may argue that the 0-6 Minuteman have no business being in D1 but the fact of the matter is that they are a handful of plays away from being 4-2.

    Week 2 – Blew an 11 point 3rd quarter lead to Colorado.
    Week 3 – Blew an 11 point 3rd quarter lead to Vanderbilt.
    Week 5 – Back and forth with BGSU losing 2 point 4th quarter lead.
    Week 6 – Blew 27 point lead at Miami.

    I have learned 2 things about UMass football this year. They can score points and throw the ball. 21st in FBS in passing yards and in the 4 games I mentioned above averaging 38 points in each loss. They also can not stop anyone on defense.

    Which brings us to Kent. A lot of questions at the QB spot this week for Kent as they have been decimated by injuries to both starter and backup. It sounds like Colin Reardon is a go for Saturday. The problem is that this is the Kent offense. Off to an 0-5 start they have posted 14,13,0,13, and 14. That’s really bad. 126th in points. 126th in rushing yards. 91st in passing yards. I readily admit that the sight of the UMass defense should warrant an explosion for Kent. The problem is I can’t see any way in which Kent could keep up with UMass especially if UMass takes an early lead and Reardon is running for his life on a bad ankle.

    The bottom line is that if there was one guy who was going to make his POTY a #MACtion battle between 2 teams who have combined to go 0-11 it was going to be me. Just trust me when I tell you that UMass is not all that bad and they get to face a Kent team that should help them bounce back from that awful collapse last week in Oxford.

    UMass (+2) over Kent

    Back on Saturday night with the rest of the NFL picks for the week.

    • Petefranklin

      Nice play!

    • Capitalgg

      VERY NICE #MACTION PLAY!

      I have no real feel for the MAC this year (lack of quality QBs make the games too wide open for my liking), but I love this play. May end up piggy backing it as I’m not enamored with this week’s slate.

    • Double wow.

    • GRRustlers

      Remaining Picks – Good Job UMass

      Seattle (-8) over Dallas – Single digit line with Hawks at home? Thanks.

      Eagles (-3) over Giants – I love Pettine…but Chip Kelly can always be my hot girl that got away.

      Chargers (-7) over Raiders – The battle for LA.

      Falcons (-3) over Bears – My Falcon obsession will be my undoing.

  • Petefranklin

    I really want to start drinking (so that I can be with my Muni Lot Brothers and sisters in free spirit by Sunday) so here goes.
    Pick 1) C Fla- Winner
    Pick 2) All Play Auburn, Theres very good two way action on this from what I can see so my props to the executive committee on this one
    Pick 3) UMASS +2 I said something earlier in this section, but I can’t quite remember what it was.
    Pick 4) Dolphins +3.5 ( I had to scramble to get this line @-115 here in town)

    Stay tuned….Duke, UDub, Marshall OVER the total(non cheddar), Browns, and my playoff revenge to the cheddar Gods Raiders are on my list for the last two picks

    • Petefranklin

      Although those are and were all winners, I’m going to take 2 different ones
      Pick 5) Bills+3
      Pick 6) Vikings +2

      • Petefranklin

        Essay Dolphins, Well everybody seems to be on Miami so that isn’t very good, but the line was off on this simply because of mother nature. Quite simply it’s unseasonably hot in South Florida. The lines makers have caught up to the Dolphins home field advantage in September but not here in mid October. Miami is hard enough to beat at home when it is hot and I’m now getting over a FG with the fins? Getting over a field goal with a team that both runs the ball and can stop the run VS. a team that can’t stop the run? Coach Philbin has been money as a home dog and believe it or not, so has Tannehill. I will go on to say that Miami wins the division after getting a huge confidence booster with this win.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    I’ll take New Mexico +5.5 for my first pick of the weekend. They owe me one (first time that might have ever been said.)

  • #CheddarBay late lines:
    at Titans -4 Jags
    at Kent -2 UMass
    at Troy -7 NMSU

  • Rob

    What lines are we using for JAC/TEN and WAS/ARI?

  • swig

    AP, MISSISSIPPI ST +2.5 over Auburn
    ESSAY, BROWNS -2 over Steelers
    3) JETS +8.5 over Broncos
    4) Lions -2 over VIKINGS
    5) Chargers -7 over RAIDERS
    6) SEAHAWKS -8 over Cowboys

    Tuesday afternoon I quickly pick every game on ESPN using that as a reference for the week. This is my mental baseline while digesting the weekly news and updates. I know our lines are sharper and know I will have to swap a couple picks, but wow, this week is tough on the most cheddar of bays. The lines here are 0.5 points in the wrong direction in at least eight games, all around a key number. I will forgo logic, curl up in the corner, suck on my thumb, and make the homer pick my essay. Go Browns!!!

    • Capitalgg

      Essay of the year candidate!

  • Its Only Money

    Fresno St -11 @ UNLV
    Akron -14 v Miami (OH)
    Texas A&M -1.5 v Ole Miss
    UNC +16.5 @ ND
    All Play Auburn -2.5 @ Missisisppi St

    Essay Pick: San Diego -7 @ Oakland
    So last week I took the ole donut, there was question as to whether or not I even made my picks because I was near the top and had a disaterous fall. Hopefully this week brings me back to the forefront. I’m betting on a few letdowns up top, for the Zips to keep rolling and for the Chargers and Raiders to both carry on what they’ve begun so far this year. Without further delay, here is my not so expert opinion on the Lighting Bolts and the Raiders.

    I’m not sure there could be a number high enough for me to go the other way on this one. The Chargers might very well end up with the number one seed in the AFC this season. Sure the Raiders buried the ball on their 0-4 start, but that just doesn’t change the fact that they are not a very good football team right now. I bought in on the Chargers right away this season and will continue to do so until they beat me twice in a row. Rivers will be clean all day back there and it will give him time to pick apart the Raider DBs. The chargers haven’t had a huge run game this year so far but I think they will be able to run it if they want to in Oakland. Oakland has trouble putting points on the board and to keep it within 7 they are going to have to score at least 21, that’s not going to happen.

  • PJD19

    Steelers +2 over browns
    Oregon -2.5 over UCLA
    Mizzou +3 over Georgia
    Auburn -2.5 over Miss St.
    SD -7 over Oakland
    Bills +3 over Patriots*** Essay

    The public likes the Pats early coming off a convincing Sunday night win over the Bengals. The Patriots looked tough and Brady looked like his old self. A key to that game was the Pats ability to consistently move the chains via intermediate level passes and the running game. The Bills are currently ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing defense and they should be able to shut down that aspect of the Pats offense. Once Brady is forced to throw the ball consistently, the bills dangerous pass rush can pin their ears back and tee off on the Pats inexperienced oline. It should be a great game, but the bills D will get a boost from a wild home crowd. Kyle Orton isn’t Tom Brady, but he’s a HUGE upgrade over EJ Manuel. Bills win.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Houston +3

  • Peter Markos

    Missy State- Defense wins the second SEC team in the Final Four. one team per conference please. this is a NATIONAL championship.
    ND-17 over NC
    INDY -3 over HOU
    BAL -3 over TB If are a 3 point dog at home against this hot pile of a team, you are a much bigger and steamier pile….
    SF -3.5 over STL
    SD -7 over OAK Rivers beats a Carr any day. The Chargers have been good to me so far this year. The Raiders are looking to get fleeced by the Walrus. Bonus game

  • mo_by_dick

    Colts -3 tonight, please.

    • mo_by_dick

      Auburn -2.5 for the all-play — NFL picks tomorrow

    • mo_by_dick

      Mike: Please treat all future SEC All-Play picks from me as if it were opposite day. Sheesh. ANYways, moving on:

      Chargers -7
      Broncos -8.5
      Ravens -3

      49ers -3.5

      I will continue my year-long theme of picking good teams playing against bad teams and hoping for the best with the spread, and go Chargers here. I can’t say for sure, but I have enough faith in this group that I don’t think there is a very good chance that the two biggest names in the #CheddarBay words-sized-relative-to-frequency-of-picks chart are going down in the same week. Rising tide lifts all ships, etc.

      • mo_by_dick

        spacing got messed up and I won’t edit but CHARGERS is the essay

  • AmplifiedEsq

    Colts -3

    • AmplifiedEsq

      Auburn -2.5
      Denver -8.5
      Green Bay -3.5
      Notre Dame -17
      **Essay**: ECU -15

      Last week I went with a pick based purely on fandom to get me out of a bad essay streak. It worked. This week I continue that trend going with ECU. I have two affiliations to ECU… 1) I interned there one summer during law school; and 2) a lot of my friends during that time (and my entire time in North Carolina) were ECU alumni.

      These fans love their university and their sports teams. They wear purple every Friday. I purchased a $60 polo at their bookstore that summer so I had something ECU/purple to wear those days during the summer. I still find myself wearing purple on Fridays out of habit. The campus is beautiful and, most importantly, this team can flat out score. USF hasn’t exactly shown that ability to score, so I like ECU to cover.

  • Rob

    Texans +3

    • Rob

      AP: Auburn -2.5
      Vikings +2

    • Rob

      Adding
      MIA +3.5
      BUF +3
      one more to come tomorrow

      Going to make the Vikings +2 my essay:

      One day we’re all going to sit back and laugh about how Top Men in the Browns organization went ahead with John F. Football as their QB of the future when Teddy Ballgame was sitting out there for the taking. And by laugh I mean cry. Detroit’s best shot at this game is sending Teddy to the sidelines early again and letting Christian Ponderous man… really ponderous… take over, and let’s be honest, the Lions have the 1 man in the sport capable of, and willing to, executing such a strategy. It’ll be interesting to see how great Stafford is without Megatron the decoy and Joique Bell as a feature back. My guess is: not very good.

    • Rob

      ARI -3

  • FTCMikeD

    Colts -3 over @Texans in TNF action!

  • HitTheHorns

    Houston Texans +3, one cheddar.

  • Petefranklin

    Central florida for a single please

  • Dave Borcas

    BYU +3 tonight

  • oxr

    I’ve been avoiding Thursday games so far because they trend a bit too wacky for my liking, but lately my go-to Sunday picks have been “Whoever’s Playing Tennessee -A Handful” and “Whoever’s Playing Jacksonville -Hoo Boy”; now not only are Tennessee and Jacksonville playing each other but the game’s off the board. So it’s time to get the week started early, otherwise I’m going to have to pick college teams or something.

    Colts -3 over Texans.

    • oxr

      *flips coin* All-Play Auburn -2.5 over Mississippi St.

      • oxr

        Broncos -8.5 over Jets
        Packers -3.5 over Dolphins
        Cardinals -3 over Redskins

        Essay Chargers -7 over Raiders – Still steering clear of the Jags/Titans matchup even now it’s an option, but here’s a good old-fashioned potential blowout that’s easily worth a three point play, a #7 vs #30 DVOA matchup, a divisional game the Chargers badly need to keep up with Denver, a mere one-touchdown margin required. The Raiders are coming off their bye but I’m not sure if that helps so much when you’ve just fired your head coach yet again, and I don’t know that Tony Sparano is somehow going to rejuvenate their lousy offense overnight, or ever, really. (The Wildcat?) Oakland has somehow contrived to field a rebuilding team that is the oldest in football. Maybe Derek Carr hasn’t been completely hopeless, but he’s not going to suddenly turn into Joe Montana this afternoon – current-age Joe Montana, maybe – and people are mentioning Rivers as a potential MVP. I’ve gotten burned picking against the Raiders as heavy underdogs before, and maybe this’ll be one of those wacky divisional games where something completely unpredictable happens, but I can’t see a game on offer I like better than this one.

        • shoseph

          Hey, we picked the same matchup for our essay! Except you actually justified your pick with actual football knowledge, which is probably the better way to go. Probably.

          • oxr

            That’s “actual” football “knowledge”, unfortunately, as Derek Carr’s 4 TDs will attest.

  • technivore

    Auburn -2.5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE (AP)
    NORTHERN ILLINOIS -9 over Central Michigan
    Ole Miss +1.5 over TAMU
    MARSHALL -23.5 over Middle Tennessee
    Broncos -8.5 over JETS

    ESSAY
    CLEMSON -9.5 over Louisville
    So the Cardinals go into Syracuse last week and come out with an easy and convincing 28-6 win. Coach Petrino at a pre-game presser this week makes a completely innocuous statement about how loud Clemson’s crowd is and compares it to Syracuse’s Carrier dome crowd last week, intending to compliment the Orange fans, the Clemson fans, and his own team. Totally harmless stuff, right?

    Nope. Overly sensitive Clemson fans, convinced that Death valley is and always will be the loudest football venue in the known universe, are planning a “Silent Out” for this game: complete silence in the stadium pre-game, then what they hope to be a shocking, intimidating eruption of sound when Clemson is introduced. I am hoping they pull it off, as we all should, because silly crowd stuff like this is one of the things that makes CFB so great.

    Will it work? Well if you’ve ever watched an All Blacks’ Haka on youtube, you know a pregame stunt can have real effects on the other team, and those Clemson fans are legit loud as it is.

    Also, football reasons: Clemson is really damn tough at home, freshman QB Deshaun Watson is freaking awesome, Louisville’s freshman QB not so much, and Louisville’s impressive defense stats are misleading b/c of the quality of competition they’ve faced. Clemson scores early and often and I see Louisville shell-shocked early on with no way to climb back in it.

    • technivore

      Actually scratch that Marshall pick and put me on Chargers -7 over RAIDERS.

  • cwonder23

    Colts -3 @ Texans
    LSU -1 @ Florida
    More to come

    • cwonder23

      Mizzou +3 vs Georgia

      • cwonder23

        All Picks:
        Indy -3 Win
        Mizzou +3 vs Georgia
        ECU -15 vs USF
        NYG +3 @ Eagles
        All Play: Auburn -2.5 @ Miss St
        Essay: LSU -1 @ Florida
        1. I don’t think either of these teams are any good. 2. I do think Florida is terrible. Les Miles is 0-2 in the SEC this season so I guess you can consider this as a vote of confidence for the Mad Hatter to avoid going 0-3. The fact that the Gators needed to be bailed out last week by a freshman QB against Tennessee 10-9 is telling of how bad this Gator team’s offense is. The fact that the same freshman QB is now in trouble off the field makes me likes this even more. Sure, Muschamp is coaching for his job every week but in a battle of wits I’ll take Les. This game is going to be an ugly one. Florida has more experience which may turn this into a dog fight but I see LSU prevailing by at least a FG.

  • ChuckKoz

    Colts -3 (at Texans)
    Wash St +18 (at Stanford)

    More to follow

    • ChuckKoz

      Wash St +18 (at Stanford)
      Washington +3.5 (at Cal)
      Colts -3 (at Texans)
      Jets +8.5 (vs Broncos)
      AP: Auburn -2.5 (at MSU)
      Essay: Cardinals -3 (vs DC Football Team)

      The DC Football Team sucks pretty bad. They would be winless if they didn’t get to play the Jaguars, Kirk Cousins looks below average, and there is zero demonstrable evidence that DC can win on the road. Meanwhile, prior to being overmatched in Denver last week, the Cardinals seemed to be the darkhorse challenger to the Seahawks for best in the NFC, as Drew Stanton has been pretty good this year filling in. But above all, Arizona has built a tremendous home field advantage (beating both the 49ers and Chargers this year and going 6-2 last year at home). Cardinals shouldn’t have a problem with this one.

  • thatsfine

    I’m sure my fellow MACtion comrades are with me on this… but can we get a line on the sure-to-be-epic UMass/Kent St. showdown? 0-6 vs. 0-5, I almost feel like I’m obligated to pick this one.

    • will do once it stabilizes. it’s all over the map right now.

      • thatsfine

        Yeah, I noticed that. Thanks for supporting the MAC junkies. I’m as amped as you can be for a battle in the cellar.

      • thatsfine

        Mike, has the line settled enough to post? Have to get my picks done today, heading out early tomorrow morning. Thinking of essaying this one.

    • Petefranklin

      Kent St was one of the few bets that won for me last week. I’m 4-0 picking their games this year so far.

  • Tim Butler

    Can the POTY be used in the cheddar playoffs or does it have to be used before? I’m a rookie so I’m not really sure how the playoffs work.

    • pre-playoffs.

      The playoffs work like this. The top 20% (10 players this year) are in the playoffs. If there is a tie to 10th place, those players are in the playoffs under sudden death auspices; ie, that group is culled weekly until we’re down to ten.

      The playoffs themselves follow the much the same format (essay picks weighted more than regular pick), the weekly points up for grab are higher. Here’s last years playoff spreadsheet to give you an idea.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    AP Miss St +2,5 over Auburn AP
    BYU – 3 over Central Fla
    ****Oklahoma -15 over Texas****
    Rice pk over Army
    MIch State +21 over Purdue
    Browns +2 over Pittstink
    Charlie Strong may some day learn that while accomplishing the noble task of teaching a young player and guiding him along the straight and narrow path to respectable manhood it is a good idea to actually be somewhere near said individual. There is not a lot to be learned by being unceremoniously booted off the team. If there is a lesson to be learned , it shall be learned and then put into practice with the next team. Charlie Strong has not completely lost the Texas team, he never “had” them for a moment. Oklahoma shall be playing a home game in Dallas and they will use this weakened Texas squad as the proverbial punching bag. The Sooners will cover the spread by halftime and then the rest of their very deep team of Texas outcasts who were overlooked by Texas, oftentimes their first choice, will take further revenge upon the chosen boys from their home state.
    Texas has a chance if they can get there terrific offensive line working and let their running game dominate the Oklahoma defense, wait…. scratch that, I just noticed that the Texas offensive line will be weakened because Charlie Strong booted their talented Left Tackle. Oh, Strong kicked their Right Tackle to the curb too. The run game received another blow to the belly when talented running back Joe Bergeron was also removed from the team earlier this year.
    The Texas run game may not be a strong point, but they have terrific depth and talent at receiver, hold on a second there, Texas’ best new receiver was cut after he was involved in a sexual assault case and their second best off the bench has a severe case of the “Braylons”.
    The point spread on this game should be Oklahoma -22 and Texas -9players and any moral.

    • bupalos

      I know none of us are used to this Acto, but that’s a minus next to the Browns v. Hillpeople number, not a plus.

      Not that things like plusses and minuses have any place in this world.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        I demand a recount.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        I messed up the Pur-do-not game too.
        Please make that Browns -2
        Mich State -21
        and there should be more clarity to the moral v. morale juxtaposition. Did you see what I did there Bupa? Does anyone actually read the essays?

    • Petefranklin

      Central Florida is a minus too. BTW the general opinion around here (lots of mormans) is that BYU is T-O-A-S-T! If I didn’t suck so badly in college C FL would be a pick for me

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Thank you Mr Franklin. Mike, please change the BYU pick to
        UCF -3 over BYU

        • will do, but be assured all that is corrected when i ‘grade’ the picks.

        • Petefranklin

          You’re welcome.
          Never in doubt and we avoided getting langed to boot.
          Chaulk up a point for the good guys.