#CheddarBay wk 6, Bama at Ole Miss.

TreadwellGraphic_crop_exact

Amari+Cooper+Alabama+v+Auburn+prnvgs8hFQNl

Amari Cooper is also good. (But not Treadwell-sized good.)

Bama -6 at Ole Miss is the all play this week.  Closest thing to a no-brainer we’ve had this year.  Kickoff is 3:30PM Saturday.

What’s that?  You haven’t met Laquon Treadwell yet?  Well check him out.  This is what a WR worthy of top three picks looks like.  (Unlike Sammy Watkins.  And have to say it, unlike Mike Evans.)  Expect to see this on display Saturday.

Yeah and Bama’s got a good receiver too.

There are two games that LVH has not posted yet but others have.  Let’s use these lines.

  • Ohio State -8 at Maryland;
  • Texas Tech +13 at Kansas State.

In both cases there are three offshore books with the same line so let’s just lock those in.

GDE Error: Error retrieving file - if necessary turn off error checking (404:Not Found)

In other news, let’s hang onto this datum from Nate Silver and come back to it in a couple months.

silver-elo-table-1-week5


603POWER thru wk 4.

603POWER thru wk 4.

Introducing the 603POWER rating.

nj0’s comment below is so on target it got me thinking:  I can make a formula just like Adam Silver except 1000x better and more accurate that this horseshit.

It’s better and more accurate because it starts and stops  with this immutable law of football:

The team that controls the line of scrimmage is usually the better team; the team that controls the offensive line is almost always the better team.

Thus the formula is:
PFF pass-block rating + PFF run-block rating + (0.75*(PFF pass-rush rating + PFF run-defense rating) ==> 603POWER RATING.

2014 year to date the 603POWER ranking goes:  1. Ravens, 2. Giants, 3. Bears, 4. Dolphins, 5. Cowboys. … Texans, Bucs, Jags, Pats, Panthers are the bottom five.  Browns are #12.

If that seems a sketchy top five result, remember first:  this is predictive.  Nobody thought the Cowboys would be anything this either and now look.1

Second.. here’s the 2013 603POWER rank:  1. Broncos, 2. Niners, 3. Eagles, 4. Chiefs, 5. Bengals … 28. Bucs, 29. Raiders, 30. Falcons, 31. Bears, 32. Jags.

You can see the results in the spreadsheet here.  Guarantee you this is a damn sight better than the nonsense Grantland is spewing out as analysis.  (How’s Barnwell’s annual bet against Andrew Luck play doing?  Right.  Exactly.)


  1. Oh hey, somebody thought the Cowboys third first rounder on the o-line allowing Romo not to be killed would result in Cowboys progress. [back]

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  • bupalos

    Objection on three points: First, the spreadsheet should stop using the term “skins” now and beat the rush.

    Second, there is no way in hell I would ever put a Cheddar point on the Racial Slurs, and I need that corrected more for the sake of my sacred honor than my totals.
    Third…I just now noticed that your system that is 10,000x better than ELO ranks that miserable abortion of a team ahead of the world champs, the ones that came all the way across the country and yawned their way to an easy win in their house, prime time.

    And this still isn’t to stand up for ELO as anything better than a perfectly OK mechanical ranking system.

    • ill be damned// howd i miss that// thanks for checking-catching// fixed.

      i really dont want to go here.. but wrt to racial slurs,,, i think the term slur is diminished when applied too freely. ‘nigger’ is a racial slur by design; wetback, towelhead, slant etc., are simple examples that also fit. i dont find redskins to be in that category. like: chief wahoo is a demeaning caricature doesnt mean chief osceola has to go too.

      yeah,,, i’ll update the 603power ranks this week. struggling with the right weighting for QB play. just looking at the pack and chargers at 24 and 27 tells me 150% is close to the mark if not light.

      • bupalos

        For me a good rule of thumb on ethnic obscenities and objectifications is just not to try and rank them or decide for other groups whether or how much they should be offended, or how they compare to other ones, but just not to use them. Because it’s just ridiculously easy not to use them, and a mark of the most basic kind of courtesy. And then no one has to worry about all this nonsense.

        Really hope Wahoo gets gone before the Indians are the #1 pariah team instead of the Slurs.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Please use something instead of ELO. I am always reminded of one of the worst bands ever put together. A band well into the “Sucks Like Speedwagon” class, almost mired in the “Foreigner F&*%$#& Bad” realm. If you continue to keep typing the frightening ELO, I shall be forced to respond in kind with the lingering and putridly haunting, “Evil Woman”, “Sweet is the Night”, “I’m Alive” or “Wishing”. I promise your heads will explode with the sheer terror of these finger nails on black board songs.

  • this weeks pick cloud.

    • swig

      Cool pic, had not noticed these before. Have you tried shading them red/green (or whatever colors strike your fancy) for winners/losers?

      Thanks for managing this league. I can not imagine dealing with the mess.

      • i REALLY want to do that but have not found a tool that lets me. im using tagcrowd.com and copy/pasting all picks now. have used wordle.net when tagcrowd was down. there was a google script i sued for awhile too. none of them will take the font color of the raw and put it into the cloud. (and i gave up asking developers for free enhancements.)

        btw, i update that image as the picks come in and you can find it under the standings in the sidebar. pretty handy tool to see how picks are trending within cheddar.

  • bupalos

    Clipboard Jesus finally earns his name. As did Regular Jesus™ before him, Mr. Chas. Whitehearse Esq. has the ability to miraculously find firm resistance from substances previously thought to have none; And in coaxing his team to moonwalk backwards upon it through the back of their own zone, he opened the virtuous moral wormhole through which Bupalos will now attempt to cram a final shining weekly biscuit.

    Seattle Seahawks -7 over the Washington Racial slurs

    There is really nothing better to root for in all of sports right now than for the wheels to come completely off the Washington wagon. And since the universe is granting wishes right now and Kirk Cousins isn’t….

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Wow, I am so sad that the Browns missed out on that RGINJURY trade-up.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Seattle -7

  • Petefranklin

    It’s only money picks?

    • Its Only Money

      They were there. I just took a donut.

      Illinois,
      Miami (OH)
      Rutgers
      Philly
      Alabama
      and UCLA on the Essay.

      That’s a hell of a weekend. Good thing I only played UCLA with the man.

      • were they in the thread?

        • Its Only Money

          Yeah, right after your post for Cwonder and right before zarathustra.

      • Petefranklin

        Wow, you were killin it before that. Good thing you only played one, but I got beat up some this weekend too.

        • Its Only Money

          It’s funny, I actually made several other plays that I didn’t put in the cheddar contest winning all of those except one. I like to spread my losses around. Hopefully I can get back on the right side for the contest this week.

          • Petefranklin

            If I had a choice of a losing Cheddar play or a losing $$$ play, I’d gladly be pulling up the rear of the standings right now.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Redskins +7 over Seahawks ***

    *** I’m finding more easy reasons to take the Seahawks in this one but I can’t give 7 points on the road in the NFL. I don’t care that Cousins & Co looked so bad last Thursday night when the Giants blew them out. I’ve seen this line go up to 7.5 so the extra hook would be nice but I think the Redskins defense will be good enough to keep this a low scoring game. They led the NFL in sacks coming into the weekend. And while Bill Barnwell notes the Seahawks have had the toughest
    schedule in the NFL thus far and will start beating up on mediocre teams, I’m convinced this one stays closer than the experts think.

    • Petefranklin

      The books need the skins like nobodies business tonight. You are taking a bad # though so that kind of evens things up

  • PJD19

    Bengals -1 over Pats ***Essay

    I’m fading the conventional bettors wisdom tonight about fading the public, home team getting points, yada yada yada. I’m more inclined to roll with these cliches tonight: “out with the old, in with the new” and “times they are a changin'”. The bengals time is now. They are stacked with young talent, but have enough experience where they should be a legit contender now. There really isn’t a ton to like about the Pats right now. Their young o-line is pours, Brady is in decline and there seems to be some dissension amongst the ranks. Brady is an all-time great competitor, but when you don’t have the tools or the team to execute your burning desire, it’s all over but the crying. No amount of sideline line screaming and teammate head butts are going to change that.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Last play of the week cincy -1 at New England. Not sure how Brady comes out of this alive. Cincy is for real this year and are going to disrupt Brady all night. Bengals have great weapons on offense and my pick to come out of the AFC

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    SF
    SD

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      Washington football team +7

      Essay pick this week, but only because I’ve been a mess and barely got any of my picks in on time (actually missed out on a couple noon picks and a couple 1 pm NFL picks, luckily, since I would have been wrong). So I’m left risking 3 points on this pick. As someone who’s new to Cheddar Bay this year and fairly new to betting on football, this is one of those lines where it feels like the line setters are baiting the majority of the public to take the Seahawks. Does it pay to be skeptical of lines that seem to good to be true? I’m about to find out, as this one fits the bill. As for the game itself, Seattle has struggled on the road (at least compared to what they do at home), and most important, the Washington defense will play tough. I expect this one to be low-scoring, another reason to take the home team with so many points. WAS has more sacks than any other NFL team this year and I think they can get to Wilson, even if it’s only a little bit. Worried about this pick because last week was an absolute disaster. But, the Giants are turning a corner, and hell Was played the Eagles close. Here goes nothing

      Go BROWNS

  • bupalos

    SF,SD late. Can’t talk. Barfing.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatta rounding out the week!

    Jets +6.5
    Chiefs +6
    Pats +1
    Broncos -7***

    ***There are quite a few reasons why I like this Denver play so much this week. The first three weeks have been somewhat interesting for Denver and far from up to Peyton’s standards. The defense has struggled….the offense has struggled…they’ve had off-field struggles. The bye week couldn’t have came at a better time honestly. Its time to right the ship against a team that is pretty darn good. If Denver can put up enough points against a solid D, I think they win handily. I don’t have much confidence in Arizona’s Offense, especially if they get down early.

    Have a great Sunday!!

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    New Orleans -10 team is desperate for a win. Tampa doesn’t have weapons to expose bad defense. Big win for New Orleans at home

  • Petefranklin

    Essay) BRONCOS -7, No matter what Millman says about this being a square side, he is just wrong.I’ll start off by saying that 3-0 or greater undefeated NFL teams coming off a bye are a lousy 2-8 ATS since 1980. Throw in the fact that Denver has had a week to stew over their loss to Seattle and also watch the Chiefs demolition of the Pats and their focus should be to get a strong win in this spot. I’m not in love with this Cardinal overachieving team. Drew Stanton now has some tape out on him in this offense and will have problems with the Bronceo Defense that gets back their all around weak side linebacker this week. We shall see if Stanton can handle the pressure of becoming the defacto starting QB for what I think will be a couple of months.
    The topper for me is that AZ lives and dies by the blitz on third down and we all know how Manning reads the blitz so well. Manning will score enough and I don’t think AZ can. Broncos by 13

  • thatsfine

    NFL pick
    Steelers -6.5
    Feels like a sucker bet… but sometimes an easy number is the right number.

  • mo_by_dick

    Already lost the dreaded all-play but I was travelling all day yesterday so was actually grateful for the college pick.

    NFL:

    Browns +2
    Giants -4.5
    Chargers -6.5
    Cowboys -5.5
    Bengals -1 (ESSAY)

    Bengals Essay: Was actually planning to essay GB this week, but Pacific time got to me and I realized too late that Thursday Night Football had already started. Alas, I’ll roll with the Bengals, who are just the better team at this point. My sharper friends would warn against the “home dog” and urge me to “fade the public” but I think the Bengals should go out to NE and do work under the lights.

  • HitTheHorns

    Denver Broncos -7

  • CLEinMPLS

    New Orleans -10
    Colts +3.5
    Lions -7
    Eagles -7 (essay)

    Eagles coming off a pretty close loss on the west coast and come home to face a shitty Rams team. I know the Rams can still play a little defense, but on the road I don’t think they can keep up with the Eagles on the scoreboard. I am a big chip guy, and I think he and Foles get all the weapons involved today. Rams probably hang around in this game for 3 quarters, but at the end of the day, they don’t have the horses. I also just really like watching the Eagles, so this will give me a game to pay attention to during commercials of the Browns letdown in Tennessee today. Coming off a loss, Chip will keep the foot on the gas.

    • CLEinMPLS

      Kanick, I obviously meant to put Colts -3.5, not +3.5

  • for ALRHODE: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/ngmhju

    @603_brown Essay pick: Even though the line has moved over the week against the Bengals, I still like them here. The Pats are in trouble for 3 reasons:
    1. Brady has just not been the young version of himself this season. In the past, his arm has made up for any mediocre receiving core. It’s just not cutting it anymore.
    2. Distractions are piling up. With Tompkins released this week, it’s another thing on the Pats’ mind.
    3. The Bengals are good. This isn’t just an average Bengals team that had beat some bad competition. They’re D has been a force and Dalton is minimally silencing the critics about his contract.

    The Pats still have that “great team” aura so every game starts with a target on their backs. The Bengals are going to be ready to wreak some havoc this week.

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    Bama

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      Shit I’m late. Swear I have not looked at score. Damnit

      • youre good.

        • AlvaroEspinoza10

          Thanks a lot

          Mich St
          Ucla

          Nfl picks tomorrow

  • shoseph

    All Play: Alabama (-6) vs. Ole Miss

    Rest o’ the picks to come by Sunday morning.

    • shoseph

      Saints (-10) vs. Buccaneers
      Chiefs (+6) vs. 49ers
      Chargers (-6.5) vs. Jets
      Bengals (-1) vs. Patriots
      Essay: Seahawks (-7) vs. Redskins

      I *was* going to use the circuitous route often used in casual conversations about college football where one determines the best team by looking at who defeated whom defeated whom. In this case, I would have judged the Seahawks to be the choice this weekend because the 49ers had beaten the Eagles, who had previously beaten the Redskins. And Seattle had to have played and beaten the 49ers already, right? Nope, I was wrong. My entire line of reasoning has crumbled before me due to my belief in a game that had never taken place this season.

      Therefore, I’m just going to say that Seattle is the team to pick because Kirk Cousins is awful.

  • Essay: Wisconsin -8

    Setting: Evanston, Il Ryan Field (AKA the local high school stadium (no joke porta potty’s underneath the grand stands). Game Time Temp: 47 60% chance of showers. Capacity: 47,130 Number of Wisconsin fans – 40,111. It will be a sea of Red in Evanston. Fun Fact: If you were to buy a ticket to this game (shell out $10) you honestly might see some nerds reading a book next to you. At first glance this match up I passed over. Again looking threw the spreads this game got highlighted. Either I am crazy but Wisconsin is going to ROLL with a monster day for Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin is rank 3rd in the nation in rushing with 343.3 yards per game. Fitzgerald’s Wildcats won’t able to stop the steamrolling. Wisconsin has won 3 straight by at least 17 points. But look for the Baggers to pull away in the second half. Wisconsin BIG.

    • technivore

      Hey do you live in E-town too? FWIW I also picked Wiscy 🙁

  • Tim Butler

    Ole Miss +6 over bama

    • Tim Butler

      MSU – 7.5 over nebraska
      AUBURN -8 over lsu

      • Tim Butler

        I swear for as long as I live I will never bet a mich st. game again.

        CHARGERS -6.5 over jets
        rams +7 over EAGLES
        ESSAY: COWBOYS -5.5 over texans

        This is a Texans team that should have lost to the Bills last week, in a game in which EJ Manuel played so poorly he made switching to Kyle Orton look like a good idea (it is). The way to beat the Texans is to run right at them. Nobody is better at running right at ’em than DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys offensive line. Romo isn’t great, but he’s certainly better than Ryan Fitzpatrick (is he?) (he is). Fitzpatrick is tied for the league lead in INT’s with 5 (Romo has 4, but 3 of them came in the first half of week 1). The Texans might be one of the worst 3-1 teams of all time, with wins against Washington, Oakland, and the Bills, and a blowout loss to the Giants. My only concern here is that the Cowboys are coming off of what feels like their biggest win in years last Sunday night against the Saints, but these Cowboys are smart. “We can’t let the success get to our heads. We have to take it game by game, practice by practice,” said Dez Bryant. I like the Cowboys in a blowout here.

  • PJD19

    Miami (OH) -3.5 over umass
    Ole Miss +6 over alabama
    Az St. +11.5 over southern cal
    Gtech +1.5 over Miami (FL)
    Nebraska +7.5 over MSU

    Essay pick forthcoming

  • bupalos

    It’s Ole Miss for me this afternoon.

  • for FHCF via email:

    on a bad connection and disqus won’t load for me

    Ole Miss

    Maryland

    Marshall

    Broncos

    Bengals

    Titans

    The Titans are awful but the Browns can prove it to me first that they’re really ready to win these games. I just don’t trust the defense (can’t believe I trust the offense, sort of) and I think the Titans will circle the wagons and find a way to win, probably with a steady dose of Bishop Sankey. I just a see a Browns moment — a bad snap, a dropped punt, some crazy deflected interception – -happening and a desperate team winning, probably on another late field goal.

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    This was an interesting map… funny how some loyalties stop at the state line. And some schools that are usually contenders only have fan bases in a small pocket – I would have thought BYU was far more popular in Utah for example, instead it’s mostly around Provo.

    http://nyti.ms/1CIhun0

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Wake Forest +39
    Alabama -6
    South Carolina -5
    Cowboys -5.5
    Rams -7

    Rutgers -3 (Essay)

    Now that Rutgers has the Big Ten jitters out of the way, they’re looking at one of their last opportunities for a winnable conference game this season. Their schedule is absolute murder the rest of the month. Despite trying to turn the Penn State game into Football Follies, they outplayed TTFP in every aspect of the game except of course for the scoreboard. Michigan isn’t as good as Penn State, and RU should come out on top.

    • Jonathan MacDonald

      D’oh! Rams +7 is what I meant. A spread of Rams -7 would have attracted a lot of money the other way.

  • clayII

    N Texas (+13.5) / Indiana
    Ole Miss (+6) / Bama
    Sparty (-7.5) / Nebraska
    LSU (+8.5) / Auburn
    USC (-11.5) / ASU
    Browns essay to follow

  • HitTheHorns

    Patriots +1 *Essay of the year**

    I happened to be on the pinnacle sports website during the 4th quarter of the Chiefs-Patriots game Monday. To my surprise, Pinnacle posted a line with about 8 minutes to go for the Pats-Bengals: PK. 10 minutes later, the line was Bengals -2.5. Certainly seems that Pinnacle was hoping to solicit some early action on Cincinnati, and they got their wish; 66% on Bengals as I type this on Friday night. Other reasons the Pats should not win this game: Bengals currently ranked #1 DVOA playoffs odds (88%). Team Efficiency: Bengals ranked #1 (41.7%). Offensive efficiency: Bengals ranked #5 (19.2%). Defensive efficiency: Bengals ranked #1 (-21.5%). So to recap: Bengals are great, Patriots suck. ESPN is already floating the Garropollo narrative, which should mean that Patriots will win this game and win it big. Let’s make this our essay of the year.

    Tennessee Titans -2

    Stanford – 2

    Miami Ohio -3.5

    Mississippi +6

    One more pick tomorrow.

  • thatsfine

    UMass +3.5 – My take on two raging dumpster fires that are being extinguished (seriously, big improvements on both sides here): Redhawks win 6-3 or 66-63. Either way Minutemen cover.

    Alabama -6

    Memphis +5 – essay

    I watched Memphis take down MTSU and my Cheddar essay two weeks back and came away impressed. They have a balanced offense that can run the ball, and they play solid defense. The fact that they went on the road and held Ole Miss to 24 points last week speaks to their toughness. The score was 7-3 heading into the 4th quarter. The final was 24-3, and Memphis didn’t cover because they couldn’t score. However, this week they won’t be up against an SEC defense. They’ll be up against Cincinnati, who gave up 50 to Ohio State last week and an average of 36 per game.

    Pitt +5.5
    NFL pick later. Probably the Steelers… but it feels like a sucker bet. Not sold yet, which means I probably shouldn’t.

    • thatsfine

      Just to clarify, my Pittsburgh pick above is for the university, not the Steelers.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts Week 6:

    Alabama -6
    Mississippi St. -1.5

    Back with the rest and my essay soon. Good luck everyone!

  • Texas A&M +1.5. I am awfully close to making this the cheddar pick. I think A&M has too much firepower, and their defense is nowhere near as bad as it’s been in previous years.

    BAMA -6. I don’t want to do this. But Ole Miss QB has looked overwhelmed at moments facing the patsies on their schedule thus far. He turns it over too much for my liking. Can’t do that against the Tide.

    IRISH +2. As wrong as I was last week about Golson’s ball security, my boys still walked away with a 16 point win. Real opponent this week. #1 Scoring Defense vs. #4 Scoring Defense. In South Bend. Coming off of an extremely poor offensive performance with 5 turnovers, that still showed 31. Can’t turn it over against Stanford. And they won’t.

    EAGLES-7. Gotta outscore the Rams, right???

    CHARGERS -6.5. Philip and the boys have their shit together. Geno, not so much. The insecurity has kicked in-as evidenced by his post-game actions and his inability to handle the media questions about his backup. That translates to a weak-minded guy on the field who isn’t taking his team very far.

    CHARLIE MUNGER’S MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:
    STEELERS -6.5. Jags would be the worst team I’ve seen in a while if it weren’t for the Raiders. So I’ll make this simple. The Steelers have as solid a run game as you’re gonna find at this point, and Jacksonville can’t stop anyone. They haven’t given up less than 30 yet this year, and they have yet to score three touchdowns in any game. That’s bad news, considering there’s no such thing as home-field advantage in Jacksonville, Florida to even things out–unless you’re playing Arena Football. Unfortunately, Steelers. all day.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Ole Miss +6

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Ole Miss +6: like a great defense getting points at home.

    Chargers -6.5

    Pittsburgh -6: look no one thinks Pittsburgh sucks more than me but if This was European Soccer Jacksonville would be sent to the NCAA next year they are just pathetic. Pittsburgh should be pissed and focused after giving Tampa Bay the game last week and Pittsburgh stiil has Big Ben and hes an elite QB. Pitt will win by atleast 10

    Essay: Cleveland +2:
    The Browns are coming off a bye and playing a vastly inferior team on the rd. I think this is one of those times vegas is looking at the rd record of the Browns and its causing this line to inflate. The Browns have a dominant offensive line an efficient QB and a great running game. I also expect Pettine to work out the kinks with the defense over the bye week and what better work out game than the lowly Titans. Locker just isn’t good and hes really bad when pressure is applied. Haden will play much better and have more room for error going against a much worse QB than we’ve seen all yr (Rothliesburger/Brees/Flacco). I’m also hoping to see more Skrine and the result being all hell breaking loose resulting in no points for the Titans. The Browns defense has too much talent to not be better we’ll see it this week. Finally as long as Hoyer continues his efficient ways the Browns will score a lot of points. Tate brings a running back we can throw to and Cameron should be back. Damn it I love this game….Thats it I’m doing it PICK OF THE YEAR PICK OF THE YEAR…GIVE ME THE DAMN BROWNIES AND GIVE ME THOSE 6 CHEDDAR POINTS!!!!!

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Ole Miss +6 Alabama
    Miami O -3.5 Mass
    LSU +8 Auburn

    • CleveLandThatILove

      I’ll take Wisconsin -8 also today.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        **Steelers -6.5 Jags
        Bengals +1 Pats

        Look at all the Browns love again this week. I will show mine by putting my penchant for picking losers to good use vis-a-vis the rest of the AFC North. The Ravens might think they are safe this week due to poor planning on my part, but I am certain that they’ll cover the Colts +3.5 EASILY.

        The Steelers will dominate the hapless and continued winless Jaguars as Big Ben has a huge record-setting day that will animate Mike Tomlin. All of Pittsburgh will be abuzz.

  • Concierge

    Rice -6 Essay
    Neither team is very good here but it doesn’t matter to me. I’m going with the better team at Home favored by less than a touchdown. Rice got their first win last week over Southern Miss 41-23. But that score was not indicative of how the game went. Rice could have won by 40. I think Hawaii is gonna have a rough time not only with the travel but with the passing attack of Driphus Jackson and Jowan Davis on the ground. Go OWLS!

    CMU -4
    Bama -6
    USC -11.5
    Memphis +4.5
    Bills +7

  • Oklahoma State -17
    All Play: Alabama -6
    Rutgers -3
    Notre Dame +2
    Oklahoma -5
    Essay: Wisconsin -8 (Essay to come within the next few hours)

    • one pro pick s.v.p.
      dropping oklahoma till i hear.

  • 1. SDSU (loss) at Fresno.

    CHANGING OF THE GUARD IN THE SEC WEST SATURDAY!
    God bless the SEC West, gents. You’re looking LIVE at three terrific games and the Bama-LSU-TAMU axis of power is about to be flipped.

    2. at OleMiss +6 Bama.
    I bet The Grove and Grove Attire and everything “Oxford tradition” is fairly gross on multiple levels and the participants are loathed but tolerated within the SEC so long as their team sucks. (I know I found the boat shoe crowd loathesome at my Oxford. You know I went to MiamiO and have never owned Sperry Topsiders? True story.) (Gimme Starkville over Oxford. But I digress.) Team no longer sucks. This is the changing of the guard day in the SEC. Chinks in Nick Saban’s armor revealed in the Sugar Bowl last year. Bama is beatable. At home? Giving points to a defense yielding 8.5 pts/game. It’s fair to question Bo Wallace’s turnover potential, but Laquon Treadwell is Larry Fitz, AJ Green level talent.

    3. ESSAY at Clanga -1.5 TAMU.
    Much as I like Nick Marshall, “Dak Prescott, passer” is unstoppable. This team is coming off their first win in Baton Rouge since 1991 and 300+ rush yds. But Prescott’s 268 pass yards are what will be bothering Sumlin’s DC. MissySt covered and played TAMU hard last year at Kyle. Dan Mullen learned and will be better prepped for the Sumlin offense. And again. I do think Mullen and his team turned a corner against LSU. I do think the Egg Bowl will decide the SEC West.

    4. at Auburn -8 LSU.
    Auburn at home is different. It’s not like the suck on the road, but they were way sloppy against at KState (lucky, damn lucky, to win). But LSU defense got exposed a couple weeks ago by Clanga; Auburn runs for 300+ yds here and wins going away.

    5. at Chargers -6.5 Jets.
    Geno Smith is horrible. Phil Rivers is in the Aaron Rodgers category along with no other QB.

    6. at Pats -1 Bengals.
    I tell you what I told the person driving me home while my car was getting new tires: the hyperventilating of the Pats and Brady on local radio, although fun to listen to as a non-Pats fan, is overblown. Dalton will do some Dalton things things. Pats turn it around at home on a short week.

  • AmplifiedEsq

    1) Alabama -6
    2) OSU -8 *essay*
    3) Wisconsin -8
    4) Oklahoma -5
    5) ND +2
    6) Browns +2

    Going to try and get back to the basics here with my Essay. And by basics I mean focusing solely on a team I cheer for weekly and have a lot of hope in. I’m not sure I’ve got one essay right since week 1 when I took OSU out of pure hope for the season to come. All my essays that followed were (what I thought) well analyzed games that couldn’t miss. Obviously they could. This week I turn back to Ohio State hoping that the offense that was seen against Cinci is here to stay. The O-Line looked improved and J.T. looked to be making quicker decisions. OSU has multiple individuals capable of making the big play, it’s just a matter of getting them the ball in space and letting them go to work. I think JT will be able to do this with a run heavy game plan opening up some space outside the box.

    More importantly though, I hope the defense that was seen in the second half against Cinci is here to stay. One of OSU’s main issue’s week to week has been defense. It was an issue two minutes into last week’s game and it was an issue going into halftime. Then, somehow, OSU only gave up one more 78yd TD in the second half (and that was in the third quarter). Gunner Kiel may be one of the best QBs Ohio State sees all year, and it looked like he was going to throw all over this weak Buckeyes defense – but he only managed to get that one TD after halftime. Thus, I also have hope that the defense is starting to turn a page as the Buckeyes enter Big 10 play.

  • Art_Brosef

    OK here we go. Time to get my ass in gear so I dont get any more angry emails from Kanicki. But more importantly, its time to give this contest the proper attention if I want to have any chance at the post season.

    For my essay, Ill head to a miserable matchup between two miserable teams, each of which is coming off 3 straight miserable losses. Ball State’s offense has been, um, not good, but not completely horrendous. They average 350 yards a game and can run it somewhat efficiently. Next on the schedule for Ball St? An Army team who gave up 49 points to Yale last week.

    49 points. To Yale.

    Not to mention, Army has to be somewhat beaten down after 3 consecutive road games while Ball St rested last week. Army’s offense, which everyone knows consists of strictly the triple option, is steady but tends to plod along. Consequently, they arent capable of keeping up with the huge numbers their defense surrenders, as they allow close to 500 yards of offense and give up close to 40 a game. And remember, they have played Buffalo and Yale so far this year.

    The Army D and an extra week to prepare are just what the doctor ordered for Ozzie Mann and the struggling Ball St offense.

    **Ball St +2.5

    Ole MIss for the All Play.

    • damn, i thought they were kind in tone. i need to work on that.

      • Art_Brosef

        Haha, nah youre fine. Just having fun with my lead in……

    • Art_Brosef

      Will lay the points with IU as well, in honor of both my wife and how shitty North Texas has managed to look this year.

    • Man what is wrong with Ball St?

      • Art_Brosef

        Terrible performance. Program seeminklgly takes 1 step forward and 4 back. God Ole Miss was FREE money yesterday.

        • Auburn at Clanga next week is going to get my vote for all-play, don’t care if it is back-to-back in the SEC West. The games are just too good.

    • Art_Brosef

      NFL picks:

      Tennessee -2 I actually dont really even like this, but i dont see anyone else taking them today and Im always nervous when so much of the public is on a dog.

      Niners – 6 OMG the Chiefs killed the Patriots last week!!! Thats because the Patriots stink.

      Washington +7 Just fading the public.

  • oxr

    All-Play Alabama -6 over Ole Miss

    • oxr

      Welp, I would normally have been delighted by whatever was going on in that fourth quarter, but this week not so much. Anyway, to the pros:

      Chargers -6.5 over Jets
      Bears +2.5 over Panthers
      Seahawks -7 over Redskins
      Bengals -1 over Patriots

      Steelers -6.5 over Jaguars – the half-point swings it, as the Steelers haven’t exactly looked dominant in any of their games this year. Picking NFL games should start to get a bit more difficult now, as we get a better picture of which teams are actually good/bad, but one conclusion seems certain and that is that the Jaguars are atrocious. Bortles actually didn’t look awful last week and there’s hope for the future, etc, but until said hope materializes this is a pick against the worst offense and second-worst defense in football (per Football Outsiders) Pittsburgh is old and confused and prone to giving up last-second touchdown drives to Mike Glennon, so this has the potential to be an even more hopeful Bortles afternoon, but the bet/prayer is that Roethlisberger/Haley can run up an insurmountable lead before that happens. I’ve been lucky in picking nice relaxing blowouts for my last couple of essays, which can’t go on forever, but maybe the Jaguars have another one in them.

  • chuckycrater

    I am really struggling so far this year and I think I’ve figured out why. My college picks are still pretty decent, but my NFL picks are absolutely dreadful. I’m something like 2-6 ATS and I won those two games by a combined 1.5 points. The League is a complete crapshoot most weeks and my refusal to watch any of the games makes it even harder to handicap. Need to just stay away as much as possible.

    ALL PLAY: Alabama -6 vs. Ole Miss

    The Tide are finally multi-dimensional on offense, Ole Miss is disaster-prone and not all that impressive, and frankly I don’t want to back “Dr. Bo” against Saban. Considered this as an essay but the Rebels are motivated to pull out all the gadgets and gimmicks to keep this close, so I’ll stick with 1 point here.

    Kansas State -13 vs. Texas Tech
    Memphis +4.5 vs. Cincinnati
    Washington State -3 vs. California
    Cowboys -5.5 vs. Texans

    ESSAY: Tennessee -2.5 vs. Florida

    If you’re telling me I can bet against Will Muschamp and Jeff Driskel on the road against a better team, and I don’t even need to lay a field goal, I’m taking that all day long. I was all over the Vols last week getting 17.5 from Georgia and (admittedly with an assist from Mike Bobo) they damn near won it outright, even with Justin Worley banged up and their backup quarterback giving away possessions for half the game. Worley will be back tomorrow, I’m a Butch Jones believer, they’re at home, and it’s been forever since they beat Florida so the team and crowd will be out for blood. The Gators probably have some advantages on the offensive front, but I like Tennessee to be able to move the ball and score points, and Driskel is so terrible that I don’t think Florida can keep up.

  • FTCMikeD

    Vikings (loss)
    AP: @Ole Miss +6 over Bama

    *****@Colo St -14.5 over Tulsa*****
    @Chargers -6.5 over Jets
    Bengals -1 over @Patriots
    Seahawks -7 over @Redskins

    *****This Saturday is Ag day at CSU. You may ask, what the hell is Ag Day. Well, CSU’s mascot are the Rams but they used to be the Aggies. They also used to be called Colorado A&M. The colors at COA&M were orange and green. CSU is calling for a an OrangeOut on Saturday while the team wears their Orange and Alfalfa Green throwbacks, and you know those student athletes love to get to wear alternate unis. School officials are projecting the largest crowd in 3 years for Saturday, close to 30,000 fans. While that may not sound like much, I think they are building something here in Fort Collins.

    But the real reason why I think the Rams will win has to do with 5th year QB Garrett Grayson. He has revenge on his mind, as the Rams dropped one last year in Tulsa 30-27 putting them at 0-2 to start the season. Referring to the game last year he said “That’s definitely the worst game of my entire life at any level — pee wee, high school, whatever. So definitely there is a little bit there I want to go out and prove.” After that 0-2 loss they went 8-4, won the New Mexico bowl, and Grayson set all sorts of school records.

    There also seems to be some value here as the line is up to -18.

  • jdoepke

    Well there are a lot of games I like this week, which usually means not so great things for yours truly. After my first winning week ATS, and first essay win last week I need to keep it going so here goes…

    Maryland +8
    Northwestern +8
    Bears +2.5
    Bills +7
    Bama -6 (AP)

    TCU +5 (Essay)
    Every year these 2 team play close and exciting games. I see no reason why this year is any different. 70% of public on Oklahoma, yet the line is down to 3.5 on covers. I think Oregon losing last night is just the start of chaos this weekend and I believe everyone’s consensus “best team” goes down in Fort Worth tomorrow afternoon. Horned Frogs 30 – Sooners 28.

    Other considerations:
    UK +5
    Buffalo +6
    Auburn -7.5
    ND +2 (just can’t bring myself to pick ND, especially with so many other options)
    Sparty -7.5
    Tennessee -2.5
    Jets +6.5
    Texans +5.5

  • Rob

    AP: Ole Miss +6
    Might even add a *gasp* 2nd college play tomorrow.

    • Rob

      NE +1
      DEN -7
      DAL -5.5
      CAR -2.5

      Essay:
      STL +7

      It’s disappointing to have shelved my planned essay pick today on Michigan after the afternoon money led the line back to +3 after being bet down to +1.5 during the week, especially since I had a concussion-themed parody of the Michigan fight song and everything. Even worse, Michigan covered. But an essay-worthy pick in the NFL has presented itself in the form of the STL Rams. The highpowered Chip Kelly Eagle offense has been designated a TD favorite, yet I’m seeing money flow towards the Rams and pissing into the wind of public action. This is sure to be one of those games that 15 minutes in I’ll be wondering what I was thinking, but until then, POWER ON RAMS OF SAINT LOUIS AND WHOMEVER YOU MAY BE STARTING AT QUARTERBACK THIS WEEK.

      • Rob

        Please drop NE +1 and CAR -2.5, and replace with BUF +7 and BAL +3.5. thanks!

        • Rob

          You dumbass.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 6 Picks

    AP – Alabama (-6) over Ole Miss

    Akron (-23) over EMU – Remember when Akron would try and schedule themselves for a homecoming game…and you guys thought Rob Ianello had no clue. Genius. That guy. Anyway Akron has a legit chance to run the table and EMU makes for a great Homecoming game.

    NIU (-24) over Kent – Really tough year for Kent continues.

    Patriots (+1) over Bengals – On to Cincinnati.

    Miami OH (-3.5) over UMass – If you take pride in calling yourself a MAC expert and don’t have a take on two 0-5 teams battling then remove your title. There is progress being achieved in Oxford under Martin and Hendrix is just so fun to watch. Love guys with huge arms and no regard for accuracy.

    Essay Pick

    Kind of my last chance with this group. There is no way that the Saints are as bad as they have looked so far. I picked them to win the Super Bowl just over a month ago and am really scratching my head now. We all know that they are a completely different animal inside the dome and the ATS numbers with Brees and Payton are just staggering. Started the season with 2 last play losses on the road. They came home with pedestrian effort in beating Minnesota and then got stomped in Dallas. I’m not going to read much into Tampa winning last week in Pittsburgh mainly because Pittsburgh is terrible. The defense of the Saints finally gets on track and New Orleans rights the ship on Sunday.

    Saints (-10) over Bucs

  • Dave Borcas

    This weeks picks……
    Bama -6 (all play)
    Wisconsin -8
    South Carolina -5
    NY Giants -4.5
    Seattle -7
    Oklahoma -5 (Essay)

    Crank up the Boomer Schooner the Sooners are back in the hunt. Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard, which should make for an exciting game. TCU has been tough defensively, albeit they have had a powder-puff schedule. TCU has a lot of speed on offense. Oklahoma faced West Virginia and should handle that speed better after that game. TCU has the toughest run defense (2.1), but hasn’t faced a running game like Oklahoma’s (5.9). Oklahoma will have to throw the ball to be successful, but in the end their running game will take over in the 2nd half while the Sooner D shuts down TCU. So back to the Oklahoma Glory days and enjoy the Greg Pruitt highlights. Sorry Sooners!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwQ_JDElmcw

  • The Iron Sheik

    **Ohio state -8
    Eastern michigan +23
    browns +2
    Bama -6
    Michigan state -7.5
    Air Force +3.5

    It’s time for the buckeyes to wake up and realize they are a product of excellent recruiting and they need start playing that way. Bosa isn’t a surprise he was just an excellent recruit and that goes for the bulk of the team. Maryland is going to be a contender primarily due to the culture in the area but they are not there just yet. I am out in baltimore for the game and just being here is electrifying with all the pro sports exposure and the culture of winning. It is not their time and the buckeyes will step up to the challenge in this inaugural game and kick the terp’s ass. FYI the crabs cakes are the real deal out here.

  • Big weekend in Nashville, TN. After this, I’m walking a few doors down to the Browns Backers’ bar of Middle Tennessee and will be supporting activities throughout the weekend. As the most newly elected member of the Middle Tennessee Browns Backer Club’s Board, I have important duties to fulfill, such as selling t-shirts and making puppy chow dessert for the tailgate on Sunday.

    **Essay**

    Title: Hooked on a Feeling – Iowa State +17 vs. Oklahoma State

    I have many reasons for choosing this game – none of which are really related to football. 17 is my lucky number. It’s also a generous spread. Iowa has more losses than wins, but they’ve been to some tough teams. Teams better than Oklahoma State. I’ve also made the rash decision that rankings really don’t mean a lot to me after 10 or so. The fact that Oklahoma is ranked and Iowa isn’t is a moot point to me. I also like to go against public opinion. I also place some unreasonable unforgiveness towards Oklahoma State for Brandon Weeden. It is a dream of mine that Romo will go down this year and Weeden will play terribly and I can finally feel justified that it wasn’t Cleveland’s fault. I understand we have a history of putting QBs in before their time (I’m sorry, Brady) but I feel this wasn’t the case with Weeden but I’m still waiting for that day in court.

    All Play: ‘Ole Miss +6 vs. Alabama: Truly, I’m looking forward to seeing errbody all dressed up.

    Jacksonville +6.5 vs. Steelers

    Rice -6 vs. Hawaii

    Vols -2.5 vs. Florida: Because Lil Jon

    Buffalo +6 vs. BGSU

  • squeekycleen

    essay: TCU: Here we are again. Bob Stoops, top 5 team. National title contender. Have we seen this before? Yes, plenty of times. How many times has OK been preseason #1, late season top 5, only to fall flat on their face with supposedly superior teams? Basically every year since they won it. So when the oddsmakers throw out OK as a short fav against TCU, you have to pay attention. Horned Frogs always adept on D, usually inept on O, but hopefully good enough to keep this close where the points become valuable. We will take our chances that they are able to do just that. TCU for our essay.

    Others:
    St. Louis Rams
    Carolina Panthers
    Auburn Tigers
    Tennessee Titans
    All Play: Ole Miss

    • chuckycrater

      TCU is far more competent on offense this year than they have been. Technically they’re Air Raid now, but they’re more like Oklahoma State with a healthy dose of the running game, playing more to Boykin’s strengths. I don’t think they’ve been seriously tested though, therefore I’m staying away. Good luck to you and the others with essays for the Frogs.

  • 1. SDSU +2.5 at Fresno The line has moved from SDSU -1 to +3 as I write this because SDSU starts a true freshman QB. I remind you this is a true freshman QB coached by Brian Sipe. Brian Sipe. Fresno game up 300+ pass yds to S. Utah; Sipe will have this kid coached up and good for 400 yds tonite.
    And the line moved again, now SDSU +3.5
    And so I have to dig deeper… did this freshman QB Bawden get injured today??
    No signs of that. But I did see that this kids graduated high school early so that he could participate in SDSU’s spring practices. “There’s no way (he’d start now),” Aztecs quarterbacks coach Brian Sipe said if he had not participated in spring. Instead, Sipe said, “He’s got a pretty good mastery of the offense.”
    Digging still deeper,,, Bawden is out of Los Gatos. Los Gatos… that sounds familiar… weren’t their some other QBs out of there? Turns out I was thinking Brady-San Mateo; but Los Gatos has had four D1 QBs in the last decade including Trent Edwards.

    Saving my essay for tomorrow, but I’ll ride the Aztecs tonite for a point.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. All Play: Ole Miss +6
    2. ND +2
    3. Oklahoma -5
    4. Nevada +3.5
    5. UCLA -13
    6. Essay: Browns +2

    Taking the Browns this week bc I believe its a must win to change the culture in Cleveland. They cannot afford to go on the road after their bye week and lose to a team like Tenn. I hope that after this game I won’t be looking at my husband saying “Yelp, they are just the same old Browns.” I hope to see a heavy dose of a fresh Ben Tate, and rookies Crowell and West. Also, Hoyer continues to make smart decisions (no INTs) and is starting to establish some chemistry with receivers Hawk and Miles. To everyones surprise the offense has been carrying this team and now its time for the D to step up. Locker has thrown 4 INTs and I see that number increasing after Sunday. Go Browns. Your a new look team,..dont make me use my same old comments!

  • zarathustra

    Arizona*** (W)
    Alabama -6 over Ole Miss (all-play)
    No way would I actually wager on this and I am really rooting for the rebels, but I had the displeasure of wagering against Bama a couple weeks ago and still can’t sit down because it hurts too much.
    Bears +2.5 over Panthers
    As the owner of both bears and ravens futures let me just say that I am a big fan of the 603 Power rankings.

    Notre Dame +2 over Stanford
    Bowling Green -6 over Buffalo

    Nevada +3.5 over Boise St
    Hahaha. Nevada is still not being properly recognized. This is a team that went into Arizona a few weeks ago and had the ball down seven with two minutes to go. They didn’t get it done, but in light of recent events maybe Arizona doesn’t suck. Nevada has the better coach, the better qb and are at home. I will definitely be taking the Moneyline here.

    • technivore

      Really like the Nevada pick. That was the last of my “possible” picks that I crossed off when making my final list this week. (of course that might be the kiss of death considering the source.)

      • nah i’ll give zara the kiss of death: that arizona essay pick was so prescient, so money that zara has changed his year right there.

        • zarathustra

          I sure hope so. If nothing else at least i’ll have something to show for those Saturday nights I was up past 2 streaming Arizona games on my iPad like a hopeless degenerate

      • zarathustra

        Nevada was going to be my POTY last week and this week I was pretty close to pulling the trigger on them as well.
        On the flip side Boise still has a lot of talent and is coming off an embarrassing home loss so the should come ready to play. I would be looking to play Boise in this spot in most circumstances, but I have watched all but one Nevada game this year and really believe in the direction they are going.

  • Its Only Money

    Illinois -10 v Purdue
    Miami -3.5 v Massachusetts
    Rutgers -3 v Michigan
    Philadelphia -7 v St. Louis
    All Play Alabama -6 @ Mississippi

    Essay Play UCLA -13 v Utah
    It only took UCLA three games, but they finally got things going last week against ASU. The Bruins had all facets of their game going last week and I feel it will continue at home against the Utes. Hundley seems to have things figured out after a rough go in the early season. The defense is also coming along and will hold Utah more than 2 TDs back. I think Utah was given way too much credit for beating a terrible Michigan team in Ann Arbor. They came home and laid an egg to the a decent but not great Washington State team. Was it just a let down or was Utah given too much love, probably a little of both. I just don’t see how Utah can keep this game close.

  • For cwonder..

  • p_forever

    ND +2 stanford*** I’ve been super resisting betting on my irish
    this year, because of course I am hopelessly biased. but I just can’t take it anymore, especially if
    I’m getting points. yes stanford’s defense is one of the best in college football, but ND’s isn’t far behind. On the other hand, stanford’s offense has failed to put up more than 15 points against any quality opponents this year,and they needed a desperation score late in the game to beat Washington. ND hasn’t been totally consistent, but they certainly haven’t had trouble scoring. And I while some might argue that golson isn’t perfect, they’d be wrong – he’s 14-0 as a starter in the regular season. plus stanford also has to travel across the country, and it’s going to be cold and rainy. I can’t wait to watch.

    ohio state -8 maryland

    virginia tech -1.5 UNC

    alabama -6 mississippi

    nebraska +7.5 michigan st.

    detroit -7 buffalo

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Ole Miss +6 over Alabama (All play)
    Miss St. -1.5 over Texas A&M
    Notre Dame +2 over Stanford
    Kansas St -13 over Texas Tech
    Texans +5.5 over Cowboys
    *** Essay will be coming later this weekend.

  • swig

    1) OLE MISS +6, over Bama, I refuse to do any college betting analysis. When in doubt take the home team getting points
    2) Browns +2 over TITANS, probably bad game theory pick, but hey we’re all homers here
    3) Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS, let’s gohio
    4) Seahawks -7 over Washington Professional Football Team
    5) Steelers -6.5 over JAGUARS, hate to do this, will still be rooting for the upset
    6) CHARGERS -6.5 over NYJets, *** ESSAY ***

    Wait, what? I saw -7.5 earlier in the week and liked that play. I am tempted to call play of the year, but will decline because maybe the pros know something I do not. The Jets defense is good which gives me pause to assume a blow-out game. There is no way the Jets blow out SD (knocks on wood) so this will be in play, if not decided near the end of the game. I was hoping to go all 7.5 hooks this week, but alas our lines are a bit tighter than ESPN pickem leagues.

  • thatsfine

    Oregon -23 tonight
    Arizona has gone 4-0 and the best win is over UTSA. Oregon had a shaky outing at WSU, but I think the Ducks re-establish dominance in the PAC-12.

  • CLEVTA

    Got to do this early as I leave for OSU/MD tomorrow morning. Very little prep here
    1. Ole Miss +6 All Play
    2. TCU +5
    3. GA St +16
    4. Mich St -7.5
    5. Ravens +3.5
    6. Washington +7 (essay)- My favorite thing to do is essay the opposite of what the public and cheddarers gang up on. Laying a full td on the road in the NFL is never ever a good idea.Like unless your name is Jacksonville, it doesn’t work. Perfect spot after getting blown out on national tv. Just like I said last week when Tampa was my essay, this is the NFL, these guys have pride and will lay it on the line to not be embarrased again. And vegas will inflate the line to sucker the short term memory public right in.

  • bupalos

    Aborting on the vikes. No bridgey no likey.

  • trashycamaro

    Packers -9 over Vikings for one ched

    • trashycamaro

      1. AP: Bama -6 over Ole Miss. Seriously, all the picks should be on Bama. EVERY PLAYER on Bama coming out of high school was the equivalent of the guy Kanick highlighted above. My personal theory on why Trent tanked with the Browns was because he never had to look for a hole in his entire college career. He went where it was supposed to be, it was there, and it was 5 yards wide.

      2. Chargers -6.5 over NYJ. I know I love the Jets…well actually, I love the “fire Rex” lines that they got last year, but have only gotten once this year. Need this to be double figures to take the Jets. Also, Rivers has been really really good this year and I will be riding him for the foreseeable future.

      3. NOLA -10 over TB.

      4. SCAR -5 over Kentucky.

      Rough week overall. The games above are the only ones I really feel good about (I don’t really do college). I really like home dogs this year. But not this week. Kirk Cousins has no chance on the Seahawks; Jax is probably lucky they are not double digit home dogs, no matter how poor the Steelers are, they are a professional football team; and I don’t trust either the Bengals to be as good as they have looked or the Pats to be this bad at home. Also, if I did not refuse to avoid my favorite teams, I would be on the Browns at +2 this week.

      5. Houston +5.5 over Dallas.

      • bama for the essay?

        • trashycamaro

          Sorry, computer restarted for updates while I was reconsidering. I’m going with the chargers and will edit to make the essay long enough.

  • FTCMikeD

    All signs are pointing to Vikings + 9 over @Packers tonight.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      MikeD, That is a complete Magic-8-Ball pick “Signs Point to Yes”.
      I wish I had thought of that! Next week and from now on I shall stay loyal to The Magic-8-Ball. This Ouija Board I have relied upon thus far is probably just a scam.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Great, I am trying to get a line on my essay for this week, but I keep getting the same answers.
        Reply hazy try again
        Ask again later
        Better not tell you now
        Cannot predict now
        Concentrate and ask again
        Acto is Clueless

      • FTCMikeD

        My 8-ball is now in the trash. Firing up the Ouija Board for this weekend’s slate.

  • Nick

    Thursday night essay play: Houston -3 vs UCF

    The time is now for me to get off the schneid for my essay plays. I will take the Houston Cougars as my essay pick this week. Thursday night games typically are a good luck charm for me, as are the Cougars, and the recent reports coming out of UCF are not positive. For one, they are out a starting WR, Rannell Hall for the first half due to an ejection from their last game. Two, Former UCF assistant coach Paul Ferraro is suing the university and athletic department alleging HC George O’Leary created a bullying, threatening, and discriminatory work environment. Considering O’Leary’s past, this should not be a surprise, so I am happy to play against an alleged discriminatory work environment. Go Cougs.

    Browns +2 vs Titans
    Falcons +4.5 vs Giants
    Chargers -6.5 vs Jets
    Seahawks -7 vs Redskins

    As for the all play, I have been enjoying Ole Miss this year, and kicking myself for not playing them in cheddar, so I need more time to ruminate on this game.

  • Will take Vikings +9 over Packers for one point, please. Per the 603POWER rankings, this line is nutty bars.

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      In Christian Ponder we trust!!

      • Still the NFL quarterback most likely to have a gateway to Narnia in his closet.

    • Four-pack of dogs for The Prohibited Favorite on a big college football Saturday:

      For my pick of the week I’ll join Doepke and Squeeky with TCU +5 over Oklahoma. The TCU defense was one of the best in the country last year and looks just as good this year with 7 starters back from that unit. The public is 85% on the Sooners as of this morning and I can’t remember the last time Oklahoma won a big game that it was supposed to win. Maybe that makes this one too easy but I’ll take my chances with the points and the home team, the better defense, and the better head coach. It’s been a couple of down years for the Horned Frogs since joining the Big 12, Patterson’s group is due for an uptick this year, a big part of which should materialize today.

      As for the rest, will take Maryland +8 over Ohio State (Congrats on beating Kent State and Cincy, Buckos. If MD wasn’t so banged up I’d make this my POTW); Texas A&M +1.5 over Missy St. (Aggies got out of an underratedly tough spot last week in Arkansas, going to be hard for Missy to sustain LSU momentum off bye week); and Mississippi +6 over Alabama (No strong feelings, just fading the public).

      Will round out the slate with Bills +7 over Lions because Kyle Orton. Hope everyone has a great weekend.

  • technivore

    CLEMSON -14.5 over NC State
    Wisconsin -8 over NORTHWESTERN
    OLE MISS +6 over Alabama (AP)
    CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
    Toledo -5 over WESTERN MICHIGAN

    ESSAY: RUTGERS -3 over Michigan
    I was dumb enough to pick Michigan on the road in week 2. They were of course obliterated by Notre Dame, teaching me and anyone who has seen a football game before that the Wolverines are Not Good. So with that scientifically established as fact, that should be reason enough to go against them this week.

    But! That’s not all! I stopped caring about OSU/Michigan years ago, when my distaste for OSU and its arrogance and its fans and their even more hilarious and unearned arrogance drove me to stop paying attention to CFB entirely. Also my mom is a proud Michigan alum and it was no fun watching her suffer every year. So until Frowns, Mike, and #CheddarBay pulled me back in I had literally never had one single thought about this Brady Hoke character.

    After a very impressive debut season in 2011 in which the Wolverines went 11-2 and beat VT in the Sugar bowl, Hoke’s Wolverines have gone 8-5, 7-6, and now 2-3 since. This is a supposedly elite B1G team that’s supposed to be annihilating non-conference opponents and laughing off weak sister B1G foes, not barely escaping against UConn (9/21/13, never forget) and getting destroyed by Minnesota, doing serious damage to their QB’s health in the process (FIVE DAYS AGO).

    The Wolverines have lost their ferocious identity. There is nothing that they do well. Hoke started strong, with someone else’s recruits, and his driven that program straight into the toilet over the last 3 years. Students are demonstrating on campus for the dismissal of the AD. (I’d say they should find something real to protest about, but given my own undergraduate past I can’t throw stones.) He’s got national media flying in to his pressers to ask him why he should keep his job. In a sense they might be happy to be playing an away game this week to get away from the noise and chaos in Ann Arbor for a few days, but the bright lights of ESPN follow you everywhere when they smell a juicy story like this.

    There’s no way the Wolverines play their best game this week with all this hanging over their heads, and sad to say with Hoke at the wheel, their best probably wouldn’t be good enough to cover anyway.

    (side note: if my picks go as badly again this week as they have all season, I’m definitely going to Costanza myself next week)

  • bupalos

    From time immemorial we see that the third iteration is oft the proverbial charm; As Juliet failed to awake until Romeo’s third slap, as Sampson’s hair wouldn’t re-attach until Delilah’s third tape-job, I see it’s likely that you all need a third lesson in how to play cheddar while maintaining a semblance of humanity. And this time I correct myself by bringing it, like Prometheus, at the very dawn of weekly cheddar time.

    For in truth I owe you all an apology.

    “Apology!” you say “But Bupalos, you’ve shown us nothing but wisdom and care. No god nor man has benefited us more than you. Your gifts flow like the precious waters of the nile to make fertile the very deserts of our heavily cheese-laden souls.”

    True. Very, very true.

    But.

    I’ve been late. Even the Bupalos is heir to a few of those “thousand natural shocks,” and it just dawns on him now that one or two of these shocks has prevented him from fulfilling his full sacred duty to you. You, the dear, sad, doomed souls of the Cheddar Bay. You that look up to REKNOWNED BUPALOS for edification. Look in vain, as I now see. You, the P4’s and Hemingwayses, the Rustleres, Koz’s, Pryde’s, and Kannicks. You the

    For let’s be frank: most of you are too stupid and impetuous to wait until zero-hour on the sabbath to make your picks, but like the filthy rutting animals you are, rush to your slaughter. The quicker the better, you say: “GIVE ME DENVER!, GIVE ME DALLAS! GIVE ME DETROIT!” By the time my moral missives come, you are locked in to your dirty picks, on teams even worse than the above, teams that propriety forbids even naming here– scrabbling out the filthy points that ensure your very doom–scratching them out on god knows what abortion of a “football team” your depraved soul has new-lighted upon, perhaps as you drank your “malted liquor.” Never are you edified by the ONLY player in Cheddar to increase his combined moral and point standing EVERY SINGLE WEEK he’s played, EVER*. stretching back many years. But there are no pearls for you swine, for your heads all point one way, one very sad way, away from the only friend who can help you.

    Well no more. I can’t blame you for being oblivious to my first entry, a missive so dainty and so charmingly demur the mere sight of it could not help but improve your wanton souls, as well as your Cheddar totals. It’s clear from the upshot that you did not catch this soul-saving glimpse, for as we said goodbye to the BB era and sailed into week 1 AB, you remained as bad as ever. Maybe worse. Yes, I’d say worse. An incredible feat of depravity and incompetence from which I failed to save you, and again apologize.

    My second foray, despite a somewhat more forceful enunciation, and deeper exploration of the moral universe available to you hamsters, well, it met the same fate. I thought this was simply because it was planted on the ever-salted earth of your barren souls. Now, as I fully re-imbibe the genius of it’s moral geniusness, I see it’s more likely all of you blind bats of Hades simply failed to see the thing at all. With your mindless sub-mamalian football-sonar you failed to see it’s gleam in your rear-view sonic mirror as you dashed on towards some ungodly stench like SAN FRAN! Were you even aware that there was a gleam, men and women? There is. There is a gleam. And woe to me if I’ve only placed it behind you to this point. Again, I apologize.

    But now comes the 3rd, front and center for all, no apology needed nor given. Snout, meet pearl.

    For those of you who can’t distill the example now unfolding before you I will descend to your own base level and make bullet points like you show in your various so-called “power paint” meetings that you menial employed-people go to:

    HOW TO BE AN ALL-AROUND WINNER AT CHEDDAR:

    1. Keep your essay short and to the point. No one wants to read your inane babble, they just want to see your pick. If even that. They certainly don’t want to be lectured at length on how they are stupid or depraved because they don’t agree with your increasingly “insane” approach. Brevity is the soul of wit, and tediousness the limbs and outward flourishes. So be brief.

    2. Don’t give away the banana stand. Say you have a guaranteed formula that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Cleveland Browns versus the Tennessee titans are the single best play in all of betting history. Just pretend you’re just a crazy homer hermit who can’t help himself from incessantly screaming CMFB. All the better if you’ve spent years consistently establishing a pattern of doing just that, to give the thing color. Zigging. Zagging. The key to Cheddar.

    3. Further obscure the heart of point 2 by giving a reverse-psychology analysis that will get the rest of the field to zag while you zig: “I believe the Browns will win because their special teams are overdue for a bounce-back game. Chris Tabor is highly qualified!” ZAG!!!

    4. Do not under any circumstances make numbered lists that menial people can easily follow. If you do, fill it with nonsense or use the Terry Pluto method,;

    5. Which will make them regret even reading it and quickly move on.

    Alright, for those of you who are still reading, you have laid on the infested mattress long enough. You’ve passed the trial and are now admitted to the inner sanctum of this essay. All the naifs are long gone. In truth, they probably ran to check spreads the first time they saw DENVER! or some other rat-bait like that. So now it is just for We the Cognoscenti to say it together:

    The Cleveland Browns shall defeat the Tennessee Titans.

    This is a moral certainty that the universe has been working towards for scores upon scores of eons upon eons Why? Ah yes…because VALID FOOTBALL REASONS!!!

    And with that I bid you all…Wait…what’s that? A gentle clank? A resonant clunk? as if…is there?… a….

    ….can it be?

    IT IS!!! THE COWBELL!!!. BUPALOS’s PLAY OF THE YEAR!!! CMFB MINUS TEN BILLION TRILLION FOR ALL THE CHEDDAR EVER STRETCHING BOTH WAYS TO INFINITY!!! CMFB CMFB CMFB!!!! POTY POTY POTY!!!!

    I will let your over-taxed souls rest with that, and come back with further edification when they are refreshed.

    Current state of the slate:

    Rutgers -3
    Vikings +9, (This will be Teddy contingent)
    CMFB!!!!!POTY!!!

    *I really don’t feel this needs any kind of asterisk and frankly am offended you would even read this as if you thought it was necessary.

    • Petefranklin

      #6) If you really have to take a vacation at the Greybar Hotel, make sure you have internet access during the crucial roster forming period in mid August.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      I’ll have what he is having.

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      Damn, Browns might really be POTY

    • chuckycrater

      POST OF THE YEAR

    • God damn I feel like I have to take the Titans now.

    • Why give away the banana stand when we can make your banana stand?

  • Matt Borcas

    Notre Dame +2 over Stanford
    Wisconsin -8 over Northwestern
    Alabama -6 over Ole Miss
    Chargers -6.5 over Jets
    Steelers -6.5 over Jags

    ESSAY: Browns +2 over Titans
    Generally try to avoid essaying the Browns but I think they’re gonna dominate the woeful Titans; can’t believe the team that’s been blown out in three consecutive games is favored here. Meanwhile, the Browns have had an extra week to rest up/recover from injuries/prepare, which is of course especially beneficial when you have a competent coaching staff. Thankfully, the Titans lack an Antonio Brown/Jimmy Graham/Steve Smith-type playmaker, so I don’t expect them to really capitalize on the Browns’ reeling secondary, and Jake Locker is by far the worst QB the Browns will have faced this season. Also, Tate/West/Crowell’s fresh legs will be unstoppable, and much of this offense (read: Hoyer and the O-line, basically) has plenty of experience practicing against a Ray Horton defense, for whatever that’s worth. Can’t wait till JFF comes in to spell Hoyer when the Browns are up 38-10 in the late fourth quarter!

  • zarathustra

    Arizona +23 over Oregon
    I would essay this but I have a potential POTY on Saturday so this will be for one point. My crystal ball says Oregon escapes with a win by 7.

    • zarathustra

      Omaha! Omaha! I have an audible. I shant be making my POTY pick this week after all, for I have just read one of the above essays—i’ll let you decipher which one–and determined that whatever drunken nonsense I had in store could in no possible way surpass such an inscrutable masterpiece of drunken nonsense. My tale of drunken toddlers and a fledgling polygamous cult shall have to wait until another day for I shall not sully this thread with a woefully inferior POTY.

      Arizona will be my essay. Here’s why: i’m not a believer in Oregon this year, but that is neither here nor there. This pick is about Arizona. Some look at them and see an unimpressive 4-0. I see a team that pasted UNLV–just as they should have; survived at UTSA–no shame in that at all, especially with a freshman qb making his first road start; survived again against Nevada–i promise you there is no shame in that either as Nevada will win the mountain west this year; and came back from a big deficit against an emerging Cal team. The freshman qb has a shitload of promise and their freshman running back is already superior to the star running back he replaced. It is a pretty standard subpar Pac1-2 defense but they have some upper-classmen who can make plays. Arizona crushed the ducks last year so that makes this a little scary as the ducks are playing with revenge. But this is a young team on the rise and I don’t believe they are getting back enough respect here. This number is too high.

  • Capitalgg

    Home field advantage still matters in college football. Home field advantage still matters in college football. Home field advantage still matters in college football. Home field advantage still matters in college football.

    The above lesson is something I should know. And yet I put my #POTY chip on a road favorite. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.

    I’m now 0-2 betting games involving UTSA this year. I should stay away, let’s see if I’m smart enough to do so. Here are some picks…
    Essay:
    Things I think I know at this point in the season:

    The SEC is the best conference in football again. But it’s much closer with the PAC-12 than it’s been in a while.
    The SEC East is a steaming pile of hot garbage without a good team
    The SEC West is more top-heavy than it appears
    LSU is not as good a people think. Their loss to Mississippi St. was not a fluke.
    Mississippi St. is far from a dominant team.
    The Iron Bowl will be the de facto SEC Championship game again this year.

    Therefore, Auburn > LSU. So I’ll go Auburn -8.

    All-Play: Alabama -6 v. Ole Miss: I will not bet Dr. Bo on the road. End of story.
    1. Oklahoma -5 @ TCU: Is Oklahoma the best team in the country? They add another data point here.

    2. Bengals -1 @ Patriots: Bounceback opportunity for NE but it won’t happen because that Oline is crap.

    3. Navy -3.5 @ Air Force: I said I was riding Navy, and I just don’t buy AFA at this point.

    4. UTSA -17 v. New Mexico: Home field matters, and I can’t resist.

    Ok, 1 more work day and Nashville here I come!

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Cap gg, Did you forget to click your heels three times before you said “Home field advantage still matters in college football”?

    • technivore

      It’s at Ole Miss.

      • Capitalgg

        Dammit! Not sure how I missed that (mind already skipping to vacation mode I guess).

        Now I’ve got to spend time thinking about this thing…

        Oh and thanks for the heads up.

  • ChuckKoz

    Packers -9 (vs Vikings)
    Houston -3 (vs UCF)
    Arizona +23 (at Oregon)
    Jaguars +6.5 (vs Steelers)
    Seahawks -7 (at Redskins)
    AP & Essay: Alabama -6 (at Miss)

    Ole Miss is 4-0 with no impressive win (I guess Boise was the most impressive). They are only ranked #10 because of this crazy SEC bias in the media/ESPN. Consider this: Arizona is unranked (and 23 point dogs this week against a top ranked opponent) despite having the same 4-0 record, which is also relatively unimpressive, with all due respect to your strong win being Vandy. Oh, but Paul Finebaum might tell you how they returned 17 starters from last year….well, that team sucked too, with its most impressive win being against….wait for it….Vandy (okay, probably LSU, but those are the only 2 impressive wins…sorry Troy, SE Miss St, and Idaho).

    Also helps that Bama owns Ole Miss, including 10 wins in a row and a 25-0 shutout last year. And Bama is just being Bama again this year. Add in Nick Saban off a bye and I love Bama.

  • bupalos

    I’ll go ahead and put Vikings +9 and Rutgers -3 on the board now. Vikes pick is coming off though if ROY Bridgey’s not playing. But I think he is. Kid’s the real deal and I’m already sorry I half backed off him based on that meaningless pro-day nonsense. He’s already got 4 plays in the books better than anything shown by any of the other rookies.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      I hope that you are correct about Mr Bilgewater, I want to like the guy’s chances of making it in the Not For Long. You most assuredly watched his recent performance much more closely than I have so I will defer to your better judgement bupa.
      I like Bilgewater, he has shown a refreshing lack of domestic violence, virtually no unfounded, entry level, arrogance and he has also displayed a refreshing work ethic, coupled with what may actually be genuine humility.
      But….
      To my admittedly untrained eye he has not shown the obligatory pre-snap reads and run through natural professional progressions. He needs to get ahead of the speed of the current level, or defenses will quickly figure him out and better disguise their intentions. On almost every play I watched his first reads were open, so this has as yet been a moot point.

  • technivore

    My question is, will there be one single Cheddar play on Michigan this week?

    • Petefranklin

      No.
      If you haven’t bet it yet at -3, I wouldn’t wait.

    • Rob

      Is that a challenge?

  • cwonder23

    Vikings +9 @ Packers for one Cheddar point

  • actovegin1armstrong

    UCF +3 over Houston
    Oklahoma State -17 over Iowa State
    Baylor -16 over Texas
    AP Miss +6 over Alabama AP
    ****Rutgers -3 over Mich****
    There is a lynch mob ready for Brady Hoke, he is scrambling to say the right thing, however he is too close to Michigan to take an intelligent and objective look at anything. He saw a staggering quarterback and he did nothing. He may pay for that with his job, but the way his team has been staggering in general, his demise is inevitable anyway. Hoke also has the unenviable task of bringing back a quarterback that he benched and turning the keys over to him for perhaps the duration of the season. If Devin Gardner was not good enough to play last week, how will he do this week against Rutgers’ very talented defensive line that has been sacking quarterbacks with all the vim and vigor of the Visgoths sacking Rome? This is rather simple, Rutgers has a very good defensive line and they will be going up against Michigan’s once very questionable offensive line. Michigan’s offensive line is certainly no longer questionable, the questions have been answered thus far this season and the answer is, they suck. The war in the trenches is most assuredly no longer the end all, be all of college football, the “three yards and a cloud of dust” days are quite happily over, but when the war in the trenches is a rather unceremonious beat down that we will witness, with Rutgers doing the beating, it is hard to imagine Michigan even keeping this game close. Michigan’s only hope is for the turnover battle to swing to about +4 in their favor and Devin Gardner stepping in to reclaim his position with a big game, both very unlikely.

    Green Bay -9 over Minn Still not ready to admit that Teddy Bilgewater was worth a first round pick, even if he was the last pick of the 1st round.

  • Peter Markos

    Alabama- I don’t bet against Nick Saban
    GB -9 over MINN We wont regret the Johnny pick as much after this game.
    DET -7 over BUFF Whitehurst and Orton are related.
    PHI -7 over STL
    NO -10 over TB The Bucs are a dropped pass from 0-4
    SEA -7 over WASH- The Seahawks will put the red faced pain on the Washington franchise. Pete Carroll and this young team have the look and attitude to repeat. The Washington Walmart Shoppers are no match. Teams now have a lot of film on young Cousins and I have a hunch he will suffer more growing pains.

  • Petefranklin

    Pick 1) #MACTION Toledo -5, this line has crashed down from an early opener of 12 or more and I think I am catching the low ebb of it. Probably goes back to 7 at kickoff.Toledo is still the strongest in the MAC even with a backup QB who looks good. This line opened above 10 for a reason, Toledo has more talent.

    • Petefranklin

      Pick 2) RUTGERS -3 They are not the type of slow , plodding team that Michigan has a chance against. Hoke doesn’t have the weapons to open up the playbook in what could be his last game on the sidelines. This could be my essay, it’s solid.

      • Petefranklin

        ALL PLAY) Ole Miss

        • Petefranklin

          Pick 4) BROWNS +2
          Pick 5) BEARS +2.5

  • bupalos

    If I understand the ELO rating thing, right now is about the time it would be most useless/wrong. Right now it’s about 2/3rds determined by teams’ performance last year. The Browns are about as different a team from the middle and end of last year as possible.

    This isn’t to say that the Browns aren’t the 4th worst team in the league (well, ok, they’re not) but given our results against teams ranked 12-16, an ELO that treated 2014 like the beginning of time would have them high teens and if they continue to play the same ELO ball that’s where they’d be in 10 weeks.

    • nj0

      This new trend for statistical analysis in football seems so silly to me. I think stuff like ELO does a disservice to actual useful stats. Just crapping out a system and acting like it really has some predictive value gives legitimate number nerds a bad name. Reminds me of those friendliest cities in America kinds of things. So you took some numbers, created some formula, and now you’re acting like it all means something.

      • 1000X this.

        as a matter of fact, i like this so much that i too can create a system and i’ll bet any dollars it is better than adam silver’s.

        it’s elegant in its simplicity: the team that controls the LOS is usually the better team; the team that controls the offensive line is almost always the better team.

        thus the formula is:
        PFF p-blk rating + PFF r-blk rating + (0.75*(PFF p-rush rating + PFF run-d rating) = 603POWER RATING.

        2014 year to date the 603POWER Rates goes:
        1. Ravens, 2. Giants, 3. Bears, 4. Dolphins, 5. Cowboys. …
        Texans, Bucs, Jags, Pats, Panthers are the bottom five.

        if that seems sketchy.. here’s 2013:
        1. Broncos, 2. Niners, 3. Eagles, 4. Chiefs, 5. Bengals…
        28. Bucs, 29. Raiders, 30. Falcons, 31. Bears, 32. Jags.

        https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11pPzuLhc3VXsr7lDxUkgkC8vJ7KRY7Iu8r70NUxtcM4/edit?usp=sharing

        • bupalos

          I think you guys are overthinking ELO. First, it isn’t complicated “stats” or formulas and it isn’t Silver’s system, just someone else’s system that he likes for it’s ridiculous simplicity. It’s just a head-to-head ranker, stretched over time and weighted for playoff games. I think it’s 51% accurate against the Vegas spread, which is insignificant but means it’s no smarter or dumber than Vegas lines. And I guess it is somewhat impressive that something could be 51% accurate against Vegas when it doesn’t take into account anything other than venue and past performance of the team. Like if the starting QB is out or (in our case) half of the offensive production has been suspended for breathing too heavily at a Willie Nelson concert. Vegas considers that stuff, ELO doesn’t. And still beats Vegas.

          I do think there are simple improvements that could be made, but the remarkable thing is that with no tweaks or granular data– just who won, by how much, where, when– it still (barely) beats vegas. So I think it is a good “base” and a decent thing to base a “power ranking” off of.

          • the dude just put out a power ranking that has the browns at 29. what’s to overthink? it’s idiotic on its face.

          • bupalos

            Well yeah, initially chimed in to note that this system is worse than useless as regards the current Browns, because they are a special case with a new O and D, and ELO’s calling card is “there are no special cases” and “there is nothing new”

            I just think you guys are missing the point because of the Silver name here. ELO is almost the anti-system. All it is is historical point spreads weighted by time, place, and importance of the game. Period. Silver quoting it is his way of thumbing his nose at Vegas, that loses to this “system” despite spending a hundred thousand hours trying to figure out the particulars.

            I doubt Silver himself would ever bet ELO. That’s not the point here.

          • Petefranklin

            Silver made his living off Vegas? That’s news to me. Maybe CNBC will do a show about his gambling prowess.
            Let me find the “real rankings” for you guys.

          • Petefranklin

            Couldn’t find them, probably a figment of my imagination. AP top 32 is what I’m getting mixed up with. Maybe I’m thinking about NCAA and the need for the top 25 to be established by the oddsmakers.

          • bupalos

            I think so. I think he was like a blackjack card-counter or something.

          • then silver should have gone out of his way to say DO NOT READ THIS BLOG POST but he didn’t.
            seriously, providing caveat about this being worthless analysis doesn’t absolve the publisher. why cut him slack?

          • bupalos

            It’s not worthless. It’s just a very simple macro- data driven thing. i think it makes a point (although I agree it should probably be fleshed out in the post a little more.) Just because it’s not something to bet doesn’t mean it’s “worthless.” It provides a kind of baseline, which is really what “power rankings” are supposed to be about.

            I think it’s somewhat interesting that it beats vegas despite not considering practically anything that everyone obsesses over.

        • CLEVTA

          Interesting stuff and ask any capper worth his salt and they’ll tell you the most underlooked yet most important factor in handicapping is the offensive and defensive lines. It’s my number 1 factor especially in bowl games with finesse spread offenses vs tough defensive lines (Oregon v Stanford, OSU, etc). But I would say that you definitely need to add PFF QB ranking as one more add in your formula. That would filter out the dregs like Tennessee and Miami and help prop up better teams like SD and NE.

          • i think that’s right. (the chargers at 27 reveals a flaw in the system.) as a matter of fact, i think QB play needs to be overweighted so i’m adding 1.5*PFFQBR to the 603POWER rating to get the 603PWRQ. It plays like this…
            1Baltimore Ravens
            2N.Y. Giants
            3Chicago Bears
            4San Francisco 49ers
            5Indianapolis Colts
            6Seattle Seahawks
            7Detroit Lions
            8Denver Broncos
            9Miami Dolphins
            10Dallas Cowboys
            11New Orleans Saints
            12Cleveland Browns
            13Washington Redskins
            14St. Louis Rams
            15Green Bay Packers
            16San Diego Chargers
            17Pittsburgh Steelers
            18Minnesota Vikings
            19Cincinnati Bengals
            20Kansas City Chiefs
            21Tennessee Titans
            22Atlanta Falcons
            23Philadelphia Eagles
            24Arizona Cardinals
            25N.Y. Jets
            26Houston Texans
            27Tampa Bay Buccaneers
            28Buffalo Bills
            29Oakland Raiders
            30Carolina Panthers
            31Jacksonville Jaguars
            32New England Patriots
            https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11pPzuLhc3VXsr7lDxUkgkC8vJ7KRY7Iu8r70NUxtcM4/edit#gid=10542135

      • bupalos

        I agree with the thrust, but ELO is almost an anti-stat system. It’s super-macro. It’s just (historical) outcome, point spread, venue, and game importance. That’s it. It’s a kind of baseline. That Vegas falls just below. (Well, except for that teeny tiny 10% vig. thing.)