#CheddarBay wk 5; Eagles/Niners.

ncf_u_harbaugh_kelly_800

Kelly had a 3-1 edge over Harbaugh back in the Pac-12. But the one Harbaugh win in 2009 was pretty epic.

The week’s all-play Eagles +5.5 at Niners kicking off 4:25 PM Sunday.  You’ve got the 3-0 Eagles heading west to meet an increasingly interesting1 Niners group.

If you’re wondering how Kelly-Harbaugh did against each other in the Pac-12, got you covered:

  • 2007, #13 Oregon wins 55-31 (at Stanford);
  • 2008, Oregon wins 35-28 (at Eugene);
  • 2009, Stanford wins 51-42 over #7 Ducks (at Stanford);
  • 2010, #4 Oregon wins 52-31 over #9 Cardinal (at Eugene).

Download (PDF, 267KB)


Two LOBSTERFESTS last week.
It all worked out for both.

It all worked out for both.

Congratulations to Concierge and ChuckyCrater on their l-fests last week.  Some minor irony in that Chucky did not back Concierge’s essay of his alma mater.  Actually I’m not sure that’s irony or especially interesting; more just a random data point.  As in:  I learned yesterday that Russell Wilson joined Daryle Lamonica, Danny White and Matt Ryan in becoming the fourth quarterback to win 17 of his first 18 home starts.  Like,, ok.  The 17-1 home start is great but of course it is a team game and maybe that’s why including Danny White in that excerpt is relevant?  To remind us that a 17-1 home record is not necessarily reflective of transcendent QB play?  Seriously I don’t know.  I just found it perfectly ESPN in it’s irrelevant randomness.

Take note that we’re pretty much completely moved over to 603brown.com now.  I scrapped the theme re-do; I think this design works ok for the time being.  You should probably update your bookmarks but the server level redirects seem to be working in case you don’t.  Many thanks to Technivore on the migration assist and of course to Brian23  for his ongoing contributions.2

Reminder:  always check my spreadsheet entries for accuracy and to make sure you’re getting the credit due.  (OXR found a mistake where Alvaro wasn’t getting a half point he was due.  Thank OXR!.)

Finally, be sure to check the The A to Z, fresh pod up last night.  And Frowns and I are baking something that could be big to get us through the bye week.


  1. Wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t remind you that the NFCW is unfolding precisely as was foretold here in early June. [back]
  2. I piggyback on his sites’ servers. [back]

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  • this weeks distro.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Chiefs +3.5 over Pats ***

    *** I backed myself into a corner with having to take this final game of the weekend as my essay. While I don’t like the Chiefs, I dislike this Patriots team playing on the road at Arrowhead.
    I expect this to be a low scoring game especially since the Pats offense hasn’t looked sharp. And the O-Line has had issues protecting Tom Brady which the Chiefs D front 7 should be able to
    take advantage of. If the Chiefs can keep it close and low scoring for a while, this game could come down to a field goal. And yes, I hate all of my picks this week.

  • Matt Borcas

    ESSAY: Patriots -3.5 over Chiefs

    This feels like a duplicate of Week 2 in that the Patriots are coming off an mediocre performance and thus giving only 3ish points to a non-good team. I failed to take advantage of this in Week 2, when the Patriots clobbered the Vikings, and I refuse to let it happen again. With the league’s best secondary (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef), the Pats will be free to load up the box tonight, devoting most of their resources to stopping a recently injured Jamaal Charles. Additionally, the Chiefs have struggled mightily against opposing TEs and RBs in the passing game (ref: same FO link), which means likely field days for Gronk and Shane Vereen. I don’t see NE blowing KC out, but I think they’ll enjoy a comfortable 10-point victory. Also, isn’t Brady incapable of having two thoroughly bad games in a row? Tonight may prove otherwise, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

  • bupalos

    I like that KC atmosphere for a monday nighter. Let’s make this week a wash with KC +3.5.

    Also Kanick how about that Carr-the-Lesser? I’m kind of upset he’s injured because he’s really starting to play to his potential of being a poor man’s Weeden. Just watch that 1st half and you’ll say “oh yes, I remember this…”

    Haven’t gotten to review Teddy’s performance yet but the points were sure flying.

    Here’s a fantastic Carr play that is the kind of thing I expect to see a lot of:

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/127451970@N05/

    • bupalos

      Looks like Teddy mostly lived off screens and crosses, but did so effectively and he tossed it downfield a few times too. And had a couple of escape plays that ESPN would be running 24-7 if JFF had made them.

  • Petefranklin

    K.C.CHEFS ESSAY
    I bet this game at +4 on monday of last week. I predicted it would go to a minimum of +3(-120). It has and theres even +2.5’s out there currently. This wasn’t my strongest play of the week as SF -4 was, but for cheddar purposes it is at +3.5.
    The local newspaper here has a play of the day, today fromDana Lane who is documented at43-43 in the paper. He is on the Pats -3. Here is an excerpt:”This could be the game that defines the Patriots season” Huh? A road game in week 4 defines a season? OK, I guess you are in the paper and I’m not so you are the expert. Heres more:”Their success has to start with the OLine” OK I’ll buy that one, but Denver who has a much better line had their hands full with KC’s defense. “This is the week that New Englands offense catches up to it’s defense” Uhhh….., that would be the same defense that contained offenses lead by Derrick Carr(in N.E.), Matt Cassell(who won the week before but lost AP after game plans had been formed), and the great Ryan Tannehill, who clobbered that “great” NE defense in the heat. NOW HERE COMES THE HUMOR….cue the Big Chuck laugh track:The Patriots are 6-2 ATS after their past 8 straight up losses. ARE YOU FUCKIN KIDDING ME? Go away you blowhard know nothing money burning wannabe tout. He does have a small point that does not take the various situations in to account,”The Chiefs have failed to cover 6 straight home games”. Well Dana have any of them been on Monday night where the fans are having a pissing contest with Seattle about who is louder?
    My Takes
    First home Monday nighter since 2011. Andy Reid deadly as a dog. N.E. still over rated. Alex Smith capable enough in big games. Thunder and lightning running backs, gives Reid that change of pace he loves. Patriots have Bengals at home next week in primetime, while the Chiefs know they have a nearly impossible task to win in SF next week so they better get a win tonight. Royals in playoffs, wait, did I just say that? It does make for a good vibe in Western Mizzou right now I bet.
    There were many trends also favoring KC as well I just don’t have time to look them up.

    BTW if you must bet the game tonight, look at the total, Over? maybe. Reason being is that that the line value is gone. Chiefs will cover I’m sure, but why sweat out a money line or +2.5 bet when you could easily have taken +3.5 yesterday. I did put the Chiefs out there early for the Cheddarheads so there should be no reason to bet the Chiefs now except true degeneracy.

    • Petefranklin

      Thinking real hard about making this my “cowbell ringer”

      • wouldve been a great one.

        • Petefranklin

          Lang was on it as well or it would have.

  • ALRhode’s essayfor the Steelers
    @603_brown St. Louis isn’t playing this week, meaning I can’t pick against them. Instead, I’ll look to the terrible Tampa squad to help me get the Steelers to cover. Last week’s drubbing by an above average but not great Atlanta team is more proof that this team has potential to be really bad and make opponents very happy. No one expected the Steelers to win (or cover) last week against Carolina, yet somehow, they pulled off both. I see this happening again. This has potential to be decent Steelers squad and they certainly shouldn’t have any problems against this horrible Bucs team.

    • cwonder23

      Via the Ryder Cup!

  • bupalos

    Tampa jax Philly Minn please

  • trashycamaro

    Niners -5.5 over Philly
    Falcons -2.5 over vikings
    Colts -7.5 over titans (essay pick)
    Panthers +3 over ravens
    Lions -1.5 over jets

    Using. My essay bye this week

  • HitTheHorns

    Buccaneers +7.5

  • zarathustra

    Today I like the jets, bucks, jags, packers, and ravens. Hmmmm. For cheddar let’s go with:
    Jets
    Ravens
    Packers

    Niners for the all-play

  • cwonder23

    So, is that 0/3 on POTYs? Interesting.

    • speak not of the POTY result.
      in same vein of not asking for whom the bell tolls.

      • cwonder23

        Just trying to improve the Cheddar Bay mojo!

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Mike we have been through this before, Robert Jordan dies every time I read the damn book. I have been reading it about every other year since I was nine and the bastard dies every time. We all see it coming, but I figured that just once….

        • bupalos

          well duh acto. you have to hold it upside down. Then no one dies and it spells out the lyrics to a justin bieber “song.”

          • actovegin1armstrong

            I tried that bupa, it says “Paul is dead.”

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Niners for the all play. Essay to come tonight or tomorrow.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Adding
    San Diego -12.5
    Baltimore -3
    All play: philly +5.5
    Essay atl -2.5
    A lot of cheddar bayers on the Falcons today which is probably a bad sign but I’ve had this earmarked all week and have already burnt once this week by not following my gut. Yes this game is outside which isn’t great for the dome loving Falcons but it’s supposed to be a nice day so this does not concern me. I also expect the Falcons to be able to confuse teddy having a whole week to scheme and disguise coverages to confuse him should result in a few turnovers and a lot of sacks. Minnesota simply is an incomplete team without AP. They can’t run the ball and a rookie making his first start can not carry you with his arm. Everyone knows about the Falcons offenses I there’s nothing to say outside of its better than new England’s and I expect similar results. I feel like I’m missing something here with this line. Doesn’t make sense

  • Nick

    AP: Philly +5.5 vs Niners
    Pats -3.5 vs Chiefs
    EP: Saints -3 vs ‘Boys

    At 2-1 Dallas looks OK? I must question the quality of opponents they have faced. Dallas has lost to the Niners, and beat the Titans and Rams. Something feels off about Kaep and the Niners this year, and Tennessee and St. Louis both are a mess offensively. Here come the 1-2 Saints clawing back from the Browns shocker two weeks ago. The Saints are significantly more talented than the last two teams Dallas has faced. I’m happy to wager on a motivated Sean Payton and Rob Ryan team versus an unproven Dallas team. Sunday night games are often blowouts, and I don’t think the Cowboys can match the Saints here.

  • Dave Borcas

    For today

    Texans-3
    Eagles +5.5 all play

  • CLEinMPLS

    Houston -3
    Raiders +3.5
    Eagles +5.5 (all play)
    Jacksonville +12.5
    Colts -7.5 (essay)

    The Colts were able to get everything back on track down in Jacksonville last week. They come back home this week to face a bad Titans team that is starting Charlie Whitehurst. I expect Luck to do work today. The Colts won’t take their foot off the gas, as they are looking to get to 2-2. I know a lot of people fell off the Colts bandwagon due to the poor start, but with Luck, they aren’t going to fall off a cliff. They strike me as the type of team that will win the games they should, but will otherwise struggle. Luckily for them, they are in the terrible AFC South, so they will be probably make the playoffs just due to that. At the end of the day, I just don’t think Whitehurst and the Titans can keep up with Luck.

  • FTCMikeD

    Temple and UW both wins
    I’ll also take:
    Bills +3 over @Texans
    @Chargers -12.5 over Jags
    AP: Eagles +5.5 over @49ers
    *****Falcons -2.5 over @Vikings*****
    The Vikings looked so full of promise in week 1. They went into STL and absolutely crushed the Rams. Matt Cassel and Adrian Peterson were dominating with a little Cordarelle Patterson thrown into the mix. Then the allegations against AD took the wind out of the Viking’s sails. He didn’t play in week 2 and they got destroyed by the Pats. And now, he is done indefinitely. And now rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is starting for the IR’ed Cassel. This should not bode well for him in his first start as the Falcons Defense is coming off of extra rest and an absolute pasting of the Bucs. He won’t have safety valve AD nor checkdown target Rudolph.

    Matty Ice will be playing outside on Sunday, but the elements in Minnesota shouldn’t be a factor. It is looking like a sunny 80 degree day. It is outside this year as the Vikings’ new facility is under construction. Roddy White should be back to perhaps the best WR corps in the league. Steven Jackson is slowly returning to form and they have plenty of capable backups. Also, Greenway is out for Minnesota. All told, the Falcons should get out ahead early on the road, and take out the crowd who are still reeling from the Peterson news, while the Falcons D tees off against Teddy. Vikings cover.

  • squeekycleen

    NFL:

    Essay: Tampa Bay: Just like the Bucs, I haven’t been able to get anything going in this year’s contest. Ok, so maybe I’m not as bad as the Bucs, who have been downright hideous. Could they have possibly looked worse on national TV against Atlanta last weekend. I don’t think so. On the flip side, Pittsburgh looked quite excellent on national TV last Sunday at Carolina. This should be easy for the Steelers, right? I don’t think so. Classic buy low, sell high opportunity here. Not to mention I think the Steelers are basically trash.

    Others:
    Packers
    Jets
    All play: Niners

  • HitTheHorns

    San Francisco 49ers -5.5
    Jacksonville Jaguars +12.5

    One more pick on Sunday.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts picks:

    I’m gonna have to forego my essay this week. Travelling.

    USC -8.5
    San Jose St. +5
    Jets +1.5
    Indy -7.5
    Dallas +3*** (money pick)
    SF -5.5 (all play)

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Submitted Akron and Maryland thru email earlier

    Give me

    Missouri
    All play – Eagles
    Carolina Panthers + 3

    Cincinnati Bearcats

    Ohio State isn’t that good. If I’m wrong I’m wrong and my essays have been bad, but this isn’t based on rivalry or emotion or that UC should bring its absolute best effort in this one. It’s that OSU is playing a freshman quarterback, still hasn’t figured out its O line even though it’s almost October and yes the Buckeyes beat Kent but Kent is one of the worst teams ever. Yes I said ever. I see 16 as too much here (hell, I see 10 as too much here) and we’ll see

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    South Carolina
    Baylor
    Duke

    Will post nfl and essay picks tomorrow

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      Eagles all play
      Chargers
      New Orleans over Dallas, essay:

      Random incoherent thoughts because I’m hungover as hell and on the road tosay. Can’t believe this line. Dallas is falling apart and New Orleans is about to get on a roll after two tough road losses to start the season. The only fear w this pick is nola d under rob Ryan (perennially under performing- except for last year), but romo and Dallas can manage to shoot themselves in the foot often enough to give saints D a breather. Tho Dallas is outside, seems like it plays more like a dome and saints speed will kill on offense. Don’t know who on Dallas d will cover graham. Ultimately, you don’t want to pick against Brees in prime time. Dude slays. Tempted to make this POTY but will sit on that

  • The Iron Sheik

    Arkansas +8.5
    Cincy +16
    Notre dame -13
    Eagles +5.5

  • oxr

    Uninformed college pick time! Stanford Tree -8 over Washington Husks.

    • oxr

      It took a positively Herculean effort – involving missed field goals, red zone turnovers, a fumble returned for a TD, etc – for Stanford to only win that by seven. But we press on.

      All-Play Eagles +5.5 over Niners
      Falcons -2.5 over Vikings
      Lions -1.5 over Jets
      Chargers -12.5 over Jaguars – Is it too many points? Yes. Did picking the absurd double-digit favorite last week cost me a chance at a Lobsterfest? Yes. Are the Jaguars really bad? You don’t have to answer that.

      Essay Colts -7.5 over Titans – Going back to the well with this one, playing conservative and inviting the punishment of the fates, etc. It’s a Not Bad Team against a Bad Team, Indy’s at home again, the Titans are apparently starting Charlie Whitehurst. Kind of surprised the line is this low, unlike the SD/Jax contest which apparently I also can’t resist. Tennessee has won by 16, lost by 16, and lost by 26, with the latter two games against Dallas and Cincy. Their Week 1 victory over the Chiefs relied on the kind of output from Jake Locker (266, 2 TDs, no picks) and Alex Smith (3 picks) that should be hard to replicate, especially since neither of those men will be taking part in this game. The Colts are playing for .500 and a leg up in the division, so unless they plan on acting like goddamn Stanford yesterday I feel OK about the half point. This is a lot of favorites, but in my non-mandatory picks I am going against Teddy Bridgewater, Geno Smith, Blake Bortles, and Charlie Whitehurst (the latter two on the road, no less) which I think is at least a defensible process.

  • Tim Butler

    Just getting in with my obligatory college pick and the all-play, 4 NFL picks and essay to come Sunday morning.
    nd -13 over CUSE – this feels like the suckeriest of all sucker bets, but I’d be lying if I claimed to be anything but. I feel like ND should be a 3-4 TD favorite.

    NINERS -5.5 over eagles

    • Tim Butler

      JETS +1.5 over lions
      bucs +7.5 over STEELERS
      COWBOYS +3 over saints
      CHIEFS +3.5 over patriots (my “essay pick”)

      Essay skip this week. Too much turtle soup last night.

  • zarathustra

    Duke +7 over Miami
    This line seems so off that I’m terrified but I will still bite.

    Nevada -5 over San Jose St***
    This was going to be my POTY, but I am working on little sleep and can’t muster the enthusiasm after watching our countrymen Browns away my morning. Nevada will prove to be the class of the mountain west by year’s end and San Jose St should continue to regress in the second year since Macintyre left. Last year they managed to look decent at times but David Fales is gone now. They probably aren’t the worst team in the conference–that distinction most certainly is reserved for Mr. Bob Davie’s Lobos–but they are close enough that I will lay the points on the road. Nevada definitely has the best qb in the mountain west and Brian polian is on his way to being the best coach.

    Be back tomorrow with the rest of my one-pointers….

  • bupalos

    Ladies and gentlemen, a great man once said that genius itself is nothing but the ability to recognize genius.* If that, in all it’s inverted platonic resonance, is true** then prepare to scribe Bupalos down among the ranks of genii. Because I have long since descried a singular soul that wades through this gloppy Bay of Cheddar that deserves the name. Perhaps you have too friend. And in this most bye of Browns bye weeks, it’s time I offered him the sincerest form of flattery, by putting my rickety cart before his rampaging war-goat and letting him head-butt me up to relevance.

    “But Bupalos,” you say “we know who you mean, and that 9-foot slavic wookie is no genius! He has inverted Asperger’s and his brain has been baked as dry as toast in the West Texas sun! Hitch not thy cart to Acto’s mad ravings!”

    And of course you have a strong point.

    But “mad” you say? Was he mad when the wide world of sports was slobbering and pulling up the cushions to find extra draft picks they could shovel at St. Louis for the rights to draft RGINJURY while he stood cooly aside sadly shaking his wookie head? Was it mad when he said RGINJURY had no idea how to avoid awkward full-speed hits and would have damaged knees his first year? Was it mad when he said lowly Russell Wilson was going to be worth at least 9.3 RGINJURY’s?

    Yes, it was mad. But it was also madly prescient. And the thing about idiot-savants is that once the idiocy has all flowed out (and I needn’t remind that Acto is constantly facilitating this outward flow) you are left with pure, unfiltered and unmanufactured savant in it’s freshest and most aromatic state. Witness his antics this week. He wants to pick a slate headed by something called UTSA, but not only does he fail to count the number of picks available to him, he can’t read the spreads correctly and has to be informed that his odds on this UTSA thing will be worse than he thought. So what does he do but promptly double down on UTSA, strapping on the cowbell and making it his pick of the year!

    This, ladies and gents, is the kind of bellwether we need to follow, up and over the mountain and off whatever cliff he’s happily gamboling towards. We’ll all land on our feet. I don’t care if an UTSA is some kind of West Tibetan flute and not a football team at all, it will win in all the ways that matter this afternoon, and with it shall come 3 points to inflate Bupalos’ dropsical sacks, buoying me off this Marianas trench I find myself in, towards that glorious day when you all shall shout in terror “HE BREACHES, THE BUPALOS BREACHES!”***

    * “Great” is greatly open to debate here. It was really just a random dumb kid I went to school with up north.

    ** It’s not true

    ***That’s “breaches” like a leaping whale, not “breeches” like pants. That would be nonsense.

  • CINCY +16. Sniffing the upset in the Shoe. Can’t wait! #BARTSCOTTVOICE
    UTAH -12.5. Not sure why, but my money’s on Utah most weeks.
    CHARGERS -12.5. This one won’t be close. Jags rank 32nd against both the run and pass. Bortles can’t save the world.
    EAGLES +5.5. Cary Williams…dude, we talkin’ bout practice. PRACTICE.
    LIONS -1.5. The Lions are so confusing.

    CHARLIE MUNGER MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:

    IRISH -13. The Orange lovvveeee to blitz. Unfortunately for them, they’ve yet to see a dynamic QB like Golson who keeps them flat footed. In my opinion, he’s of the Russell Wilson mold, which is the hardest to game plan for: The type of guy who is just as comfortable in the pocket as out of it, who can make every throw on the field whether standing still or on the sprint. These are the type who are incredibly difficult to plan and practice for. They aren’t “running QB’s” who are one-dimensional; instead they keep the defense guessing because their eyes are always down field, the ball is always in position to release quickly, and you’ve got to defend both what’s behind and in front of you-not knowing until the last second what the QB is going to do. All the while, these guys are making all the plays, taking calculated risks on each snap, and keeping turnovers to a minimum. I expect a big win from the Irish-coming off a bye-before Stanford comes to South Bend next week, and I expect Golson to keep climbing higher in the Heisman conversation as the season progresses.

  • HitTheHorns

    ESSAY
    Louisiana Tech +34: Anytime a team loses to an FCS school then plays the defending national runner-up, you have to essay them, right? 76% is on Auburn and the current line has dropped to 32.5, so like the reverse line movement in my favor. Overall, just a tough spot for Auburn, coming off a tough, Thursday night grind-it-out game vs. Kansas State, and has LSU on deck (their only loss last season prior to the championship game). Think they will just be happy to get out of here with a win and healthy players, while Tech needs to get last week’s taste out of their mouth. I think the Auburn cover train is about to go in reverse and start a non-cover streak.
    Other picks to come tomorrow.

  • **essay** Illinois +20 vs. Nebraska

    I must confess, this is essay number two. Initially, I was attempting to justify the SMU Mustangs covering a 31.5 point spread against the Horned Frogs. The Froggies always put a bad taste in my mouth but the facts don’t lie. Mustangs are on their fourth QB with an interim coach and the pick to make would be for the Frogs to earn the Iron Skillet by at LEAST 31.5. So, for a change of pace, I am exercising some restraint, and going in a different direction. This is perhaps the restraint I lacked yesterday when my little sister and I purchased cat-ear headbands are the mall.

    Still, I feel an upset is in the air. I feel the tingly excitement we all feel when a dismissed underdog becomes a David against a Goliath. I feel like there’s going to be a game today that gives us all hope that we can succeed even when everyone around us tells us we’re broken or not good enough.

    The Illini continue to be underestimated, by the spread, by the experts, but most importantly, by themselves. They have the tools, Ferguson, namely. Also, the spunky, unpredictable QB in Wes Lunt. They just need the confidence to win a game out right.

    I imagine the Illini to be like Rachel Leigh Cook in She’s All That, she’s just so used to being bullied and made fun of, that she doesn’t even know what to do when she starts to get some attention, or in Illinois’s case, some wins. Then, like in every teen transformation movie, comes the makeover montage. Eyebrows are plucked, new outfits are picked out, and then finally, the lip gloss is applied – all aggregating to a final moment when she walks slow motion down the stairs while Sixpence None the Richer sings Kiss Me in the background.

    No, I’m not advocating for the Illini to rat their hair. They’ve got their movie makeover this week – new uniform combination. Dawning freshly painted orange helmets that will complement their bright orange football pants, they will enter the football field amongst the cornfields in Lincoln, a madeover team. With the outward appearance to match their inward capabilities. This is not unlike the magic water Michael Jordan gives the ‘Toons in Space Jam.

    If the Cornhuskers have underestimated this game, if they’re already thinking about Michigan State, then the Illini have a chance to win – but at the very least, I’m betting they’ll cover the spread.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      KP, it is easier for guys, me especially because I am an uber-competitive JACKASS, but I understand your recent focus, I just dropped 63lbs in 5 months. For me is was cutting down to only one bottle of wine a day and competitive sports. 8 inches around the waist feels terrific. Your before and after picks are of course both spectacular, but I know the “after” make you happier. Great job KP!

  • FTCMikeD

    Temple -4.5 over @UConn
    @UW +8 over Stan
    AP, Essay and rest of picks to come later.

  • The Iron Sheik

    Georgia -17.5
    Pitt -19.5** no essay this week

  • via FlyHighCharlieFrye wants Akron and Maryland.

  • clayII

    Rutgers (-12) / Tulane
    Maryland (+4) / Indiana
    Pitt (-19.5) / Akron

    • clayII

      Miami OH (+5) / Buffalo

    • clayII

      USC (-8.5) / Oregon St

      • clayII

        49ers (-5.5) / Eagles
        Time to sell high on the Eagles. I’m sure everyone heard this by now but the Eagles 3 wins are Jax and 2 other 1-2 teams who’s wins were both vs Jax. At 1-2, could be now or never for 49ers in their tuff division. By far the best D Eagles will have faced yet. The 5.5 seems like a tease for Eagles backers. Expecting a big night from Kap.

  • Middle Tenn +2.5 vs. Old Dominion (WIN)

    Boston College -7 vs. Colorado State

    Iowa State +21 vs. Baylor

    Washington +8 vs. Stanford

    All Play: Eagles +5.5 vs. 49ers

    Essay to come….

  • CLEinMPLS

    Texas A & M -8.5

  • Dave Borcas

    UL Monroe -13.5
    Penn St -10.5 (essay)
    My essay picks have been the kiss of death this year, so sorry Penn St fans. Penn St has something to play for with the bowl ban lifted. Style points matter with the poll voters. The Lions have been stingy vast the run giving up 50 yards per game. The Wildcats rely on a balanced offense to support their passing game. The Wildcats have also been porous against the run we Browns fans know what that looks like. Forcing the Wildcats to be one dimensional surely looks like a big win in Happy Valley for the Nittany Lions. The fans should be celebrating at Baby Dolls before the game is over.
    On a side note, rejoice Fighting Irish fans, you were almost received my essay kiss of death!

  • Nick

    Middle Tenn +2.5 (WIN)
    Vanderbilt +17 vs Kentucky
    Central Michigan +14.5 vs Toledo

    NFL/essay tomorrow

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Cincy+16 OSU
    South Carolina -6 Mizzou
    Tulane +12 Rutgers
    Army -14.5 Yale

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Browns withdrawal, don’t like it at all.

      Niners All Play
      Saints -3 Cowboys*
      *The Saints are 1-2 and very much need to get their road game together at this point in the season. No better way to avenge both down-to-the-wire road losses than with another crush job in Dallas (fuzzy warm memories of last year). Although the Saints are a horrendous 0-6 ATS as road favorites, I like that they are 8-2 ATS v Dallas in their last 10 meetings. It’s taken a few games to work out the kinks (and shake off losing to the Browns, you know that one was penciled in as a W, ouch) but things should start coming together for the Saints, they are just too talented.

  • Matt Borcas

    Notre Dame -13 over Syracuse
    Cincy +16 over Ohio State
    Texas A&M -8.5 over Arkansas

    NFL/essay coming tomorrow

    • Matt Borcas

      49ers -5.5 over Eagles
      Bears +1.5 over Packers

  • Chris Schroeder

    Texas A&M -8.5 vs. Arkansas
    South Carolina -6 vs. Missouri
    Southern California -8.5 vs. Oregon State
    Chicago +1.5 vs. Green Bay
    All Play: Philadelphia +5.5 @ San Francisco

    Essay: Iowa -9.5 @ Purdue

    Setting: Ross-Ade Stadium West Lafayette, Indiana. Capacity: 57,236. Actual Game Time Capacity: 28,345. Game Time Temp.: 81 with partly cloudy sky’s. Fun Facts: The Purdue band claims the ‘Worlds Largest Drum’ (well if that doesn’t get you excited about this game I don’t
    know what will). News Flash: Wild Stallion Mr. Sunshine Sex Cannon C.J. Beathard will get the start. In his second year coach Hazell is showing signs of improvement with his current Boilermaker club but on this Saturday afternoon it will be a game to forget about.
    Speculation of Sex Cannon getting the starting nod has many Hawkeye fans giddy. Iowa’s offense finally looked in sink during last weeks second half with the young gunslinger Mr. Sunshine Sex Cannon Beathard at the rains of the saddle. The Hawks will come out with the classic smash mouth Kirk Ferentz football handing the ball to Mr. Weisman for Heisman. Then the game will open up when old balls coach Davis decides to let the young Wild Stallion Mr. Sunshine Sex Cannon out of the barn into the fresh prairie of the Indiana pastures. Hawkeyes will cover and finally that old stubborn bustard of an Iowa coach will have no other reason not to play the lady favorite Mr. Sunshine for the rest of the season.

  • mo_by_dick

    Duke +7

    **Falcons -2.5 (essay)
    Dolphins -3.5
    Chargers -12.5
    Lions -1.5
    (AP) Eagles +5.5

    Picks and essay coming from 36,000 feet somewhere above the Great Plains so I’m rolling w the birds. Betting against the rookie quarterback debuts this week, as the lines seem overly optimistic. Tons of pressure on Bridgewater, and I don’t expect him to be an improvement over Cassel at this point without any help from the running game. The Falcons have impressed, and should be looking to prove their road woes are in the past. Also Vikings 1-2 against the spread in those matte purple helmets and Falcons 2-1 since OutKast reunited and I don’t see either of those accounted for in this line. Fly, Falcons, Fly. Ca cawwwww

  • PJD19

    Niners -5.5 over eagles *****all play and pick of the week*****
    Carolina +3 over Baltimore
    Norte Dame -13 over Syracuse
    Nebraska -20 over Illinois

  • AmplifiedEsq

    1) SF 49ers -5.5: SF needs a win, should be able to control the clock better than past PHI opponents, and I expect their defense to make some key plays.

    2) Atlanta -2.5: Joe Banner spent $100,000 of the Browns money to find out Teddy Bridgewater was the best QB in this past draft. Unfortunately for Teddy that honor will not be enough. He has a weak running game to work with and will likely be asked to do too much with his arm for his first NFL start, leading to a few rookie mistakes. (Essay – more at bottom).

    3) Detroit -1.5: I see DET’s passing game too much for NYJ to stop.

    4) Indianapolis -7.5: Andrew Luck is going to keep on rolling against weak divisional teams.

    5) N.O. Saints -3: The Rams third string QB picked apart the Cowboy defense… Can’t wait to see what Brees does.

    6) Baylor -21: This game was 71-7 last year. I know Baylor scores and I know Iowa State struggles at times. I’ll take Baylor to go on a scoring run and cover, though certainly not as much as last year.

    ESSAY (ATL -2.5): This line confuses me. Atlanta is coming off a Thursday night game, giving them extra time to rest and heal up before this match-up. The Vikings will be starting their rookie QB for his first full game, have a weak running game, and really only one play maker on the offensive side of the ball. I saw some Teddy highlights from last week and he showed the ability to tuck the ball and take off. He also appeared to not put himself in any positions to make a big mistake. But that game wasn’t his… He didn’t start it and probably wasn’t expecting to go in at any point. He knows this game is his, he wants to lead his team to the victory, and he will likely attempt to force the issue more than last week. It could work out, especially if he can find Patterson in space. But chances are Atlanta can mix up their defensive schemes just enough to confuse Teddy, force a turnover or two, and ultimately pull out the victory.

    Most important factor in this decision though… Teddy has tiny hands and wears wears two gloves* (not sure he actually wears two gloves in the pros now). Thus, Falcons to win and cover.

  • PJD19

    Using my essay skip this week….really shooting from the hip on these picks:

    Duke +7 over Miami
    UBuff -5 over Miami OH

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1. ASU +4 (loss)
    2. Washington +8
    3. BGSU -4.5
    4. Duke +7
    5. All Play: Eagles +5.5
    6. Essay: Ravens -3 vs Carolina

    Im picking this game for one reason: Steve Smith. I have been really impressed with the chemistry between Smith and Flacco and Im certain he will do everything in his power to win this game. I think Carolina will get a taste of its own medicine and learn how infuriating it is to play against Smith. Hopefully the Ravens can hold off the running attack of the Panthers which has actually been pretty bad year to date (72 yds/game). I know Carolina gets Williams back and you always have to worry about Newton but they really have been a non-factor running the ball so far. If the Ravens can get out to an early lead it will force Carolina into the passing game and where their only real threat is a one man dose of K. Benjamin (who has been a beast) which they should be able to prepare for. Im still mad at Steve for last week against the Browns but I do hope he beats his old team in this showdown.

  • Capitalgg

    So, 2nd place huh? Wow! Let’s keep grinding.

    Traditionally, the Browns bye week is one of my worst of the year. I disconnect from football a bit as I don’t have a game I’m going to attend or even watch. It was especially acute last season when the Browns and Buckeyes took the same weekend off and I scheduled some travel, just me and my 18 month old (with the exception of the blowout in the security line on the return trip, it went smoother than you would think).

    Anyway, knowing I’m especially out of things this week, what have I done? I looked at the list of games and have mightily struggled to find 6 I really like, but I did find 2 I ABSOLUTELY LOVE! So out of an ugly slate with I’m declaring this week’s essay my

    5 STAR – GOLD MEDAL – PLAY OF THE YEAR:

    UTSA -5 @ FAU

    That’s right! #CheddarBay darling and the top mid-major team in the US of A travels to southern Florida for their first ever ConferenceUSA game in a season they can compete for the postseason. Most teams come out fired up in this spot, but in the short history of UTSA they come out looking to obliterate (see UTSA 32-UTEP 13 9/21/13, UTSA 27-Houston 7 8/29/14). And that is what will happen here because those game weren’t even as close as the score indicates. The Roadrunners are healthy coming of the bye while the Owls are coming off 3 time zone trip and loss in Laramie, Wyoming. Charlie Partridge might be a good coach, but this is his first head coaching job while Larry Coker has won a National Title and his best work might be the build of the UTSA program. It’s a veteran squad with 36 seniors and 22 juniors, so they are mentally prepared to deal with adversity of a bad break or slow start. But also savvy enough to avoid those things. So against weaker ConfUSA competition, I fully expect a HUGE win for the Roadrunners. BEEP BEEP

    All-Play: Eagles +5.5 @ 49ers: My gambling instincts say to stay far away from this one. I wouldn’t bet it with your money. Spot says ‘9ers, but I can’t give > 4 pts. to Chip Kelly right now and I think the Eagles are an equal or slightly better team than Frisco. So just give me points and hope.

    [loss] 1. Oklahoma St -14 v. Texas Tech: Fundamentals were right. Superior team, home on Thursday off long layoff. They were up 17 in the 4th when the Raiders deservedly back-doored. Oh well…
    2. Saints -3 @ Dallas: My other Play of the Year candidate. Saints could/should be 3-0 but are instead battling back from 0-2. Dallas should have been beaten by a bad Rams team last week and were let off the hook. This matchup is much more lopsided than it appears on the surface, so I plan to profit from it.
    3. Ohio -6 v. Eastern Illinois: It’s on the sheet, we’re allowed to pick it. Can’t resist on a line that should be at least a TD, maybe 10.
    4. Clemson -14.5 v. North Carolina: At this point, North Carolina is both a directional school and the worst of them in the Carolina/southeastern USA, right? Slight hangover risk for Clemson, but the smashing by ECU to UNC last week was not a fluke.

    That last game there was the toughest for me to pick. Didn’t feel strongly about anything after the top 4 (though I liked Georgia Southern on Thursday and chickened out because I was already on Okie St). Other candidates for that spot were:
    Colorado St. +9.5 @ BC
    Ravens -3 v. Panthers

    Others plays:
    Cincinnati +16 @ Ohio St.

    Maryland +4 v. Indiana (also the over if you can get it under 70)

    Rutgers -12 v. Tulane
    Pitt -19.5 v. Akron
    Arkansas +8.5 @ Texas A&M (different story if at Kyle)
    Kentucky -17 v. Vandy

    • mo_by_dick

      Is that the 2nd POTY on UTSA? Am I gonna have to board this train?

    • cwonder23

      I figured you would say your POTY for #MACTION

      • Capitalgg

        Roadrunners to juicy to resist.

  • Definitely cranky-pants this week after scrapping what turned out to be a nuts-on essay (Rutgers o-line domination of teeny tiny Navy) AND replacing it with a Bob Davie play AND the Browns. I should’ve known when my cat gave me a feline Sicilian message which I now know to mean: Bob Davie sleeps with the chipmunks. (Disturbing jpg deleted.) Still pissed. Also: love you Mr. Hoyer; gotta hit that 3rd down pass to Hawkins. Moving on…

    1. FSU -19.5 at NCST. 60+ points; would be over 70 if in Tallahassee.

    2. at Rutgers -12 Tulane. We’ll try RU again. They didn’t miss a beat when Paul James went out (ACL); Tulane is big up the middle but under-sized on the edges (Ourlads lists their starting WLB as 5-8/180.)

    3. Essay Cincy +16 at OSU.
    Gunner Kiel will be playing QB on Sundays. He is the prototype NFL QB at 6-4/220 with lots of Indiana state high football awards. He was the nation’s top QB recruit when he landed at Notre Dame and found himself buried on the bench. I don’t know enough about Everett Golson to say if he’s good or better than Kiel, but Kiel obviously thought the Brian Kelly preferred Golson… and there is no way Kiel is built to sit the bench, even in South Bend. (Raises some questions about the Kelly’s recruiting process?) Whatever, he’s found a home in Cincy and undoubtedly Tommy T. lured Kiel with the promise Kiel lots of showcase highlights (and a 6-6 WR transfer from Arkansas) for his draft reel. Two games and ten TDs passes later, the compilation film starts in earnest today. Meanwhile, Urban would be happy with Kiel’s backup (Munchie Legaux). So… we’ve got over valued OSU (70 pts against Kent!) at home with Cincy undervalued due to squeaking past a better-than-you-think MiamiO team. Cincy has an NFL prospect at QB, and a good line to protect him.

    4. at Chargers -12.5 Jags. Might just ride the Chargers for a spell.

    5. Falcons -2.5 at Vikes. Yeah, nah, Teddy Bridgewater.

    6. ALL PLAY: at Niners -5.5 Eagles. I still have the Niners tracking to 6-10 even with this home win.

    • I’m bumping Cincy +16 up to be my Pick of the Year.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Three more for today. Essay to come later.
    South Carolina -6 over Missouri
    North Carolina +14.5 over Clemson
    Syracuse +13 over Notre Dame

    • DQuatts

      DHems! DHems! DHems!!!

  • p_forever

    and away we go –

    washington +8 stanford (the home dog)

    memphis -+19.5 mississippi (the look ahead)

    ND-13 syracuse (safe pick because the look ahead is taken
    already)

    clemson -14.5 UNC*** sometimes teams bounce back after horrible thrashings, but that only happens when the thrashing was undeserved. UNC is just sort of terrible – no one should have been surprised at last week’s result, and people only were because they
    refused to believe that east carolina is for real. The tarheels seem incapable of stopping the ball, plus they love to turn the ball over. this sets up perfectly for a bigger win than might have been expected for Clemson, a team whose has been surviving on it’s defense this year. but jeez – against this UNC defense Clemson won’t need an explosive offense to win big.

    texas a&m -9 arkansas

    eagles+5.5 niners

  • squeekycleen

    College today, will add NFL and essay tomorrow:

    Washington St.
    UMass

  • thatsfine

    UTEP +26

    And, backing some birds
    BC -7
    BGSU -4.5
    MiamiOH +5
    Eagles +5.5
    Temple -4.5 – Essay
    UConn is bad. I think typing that three-word sentence 33 times should count as a 100-word essay, as that is a good enough reason here. They managed a TOTAL of 132 yards vs. USF last week, in a game much discussed amongst Cheddar Bay for how terrible it would be.

    I’ll add historical context to my essay. In 2006 Temple played as an independent, doormat program that got run out of the Big East for being terrible. They spent two years as an independent mostly getting beat by MAC teams. Temple liked losing to teams Philadelphians had never heard of so much it joined the MAC for a few years, before a desperate Big East called them back, just to soon collapse when Boise State and TCU backed out. Now, they’ve rebounded as best as a team can being stuck in the AAC. Temple is a program with the arrow pointed up. The Owls beat up an SEC team a few weeks back (OK, it was Vandy…. but still an SEC team). They hung in there with an underrated Navy team, and got ready for this game by destroying Delaware State. And… UConn is bad.

  • jdoepke

    Well, I am off to a terrible start (9-15 ATS, 0-4 on Essays). No time like the present to turn it around. Here goes…

    Syracuse +13
    Arkansas +8.5
    Temple -4.5
    Maryland +4
    49ers -5 (AP) *no way I pick this game if it’s not the all play

    Washington +8 (essay)
    I don’t love this pick but the public is hammering Stanford. Washington is a quiet 4-0, yet trailed at half last week against Ga St. Stanford has struggled and while I hate going against smart teams, Washington has the home field advantage and Andrew Luck is the only Stanford QB to win at Washington since 2008. Stanford wins but Huskies stay within the number, 21-20. I need an essay win to get back on track.

    Others:
    Cowboys +3
    Chiefs +3.5
    Jets +1.5
    Vikings +3
    Packers+1
    Tampa Bay +7.5
    Northwestern +10.5
    Mizzou +6

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Cal -14 over Colorado
    Clemson -14.5 over UNC
    Miami -7 over Duke
    Air Force +12 over Boise St.
    Eagles +5.5 over 49ers (Fantasy implications: I have both Shady McCoy and Colin Kaepernick)

    Steelers -7.5 over Buccaneers (Essay)

    This point spread basically means: do you think the Steelers can beat the Buccaneers by more than a touchdown? Given how the these two teams have started thus far, that’s a reasonable proposition. Unfortunately the Steelers might not be as bad as many on this board would like them to be, myself included. The Bucs really haven’t changed much under Lovie Smith – still terrible, just under a coach who isn’t as weird and knows enough to not have his defense to charge through the O-line when the other team is in victory formation. They will pick up a few Ws as they are in a weak division, however not this weekend.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 5 Picks

    Happy days for me as tomorrow marks the last of 3 family weddings in 3 months and will allow me to focus on the more important task of being a degenerate and trying to arrange a marriage between the MAC and the Sun Belt.

    All Play – 49ers (-5.5) over Eagles – I love me some Chip Kelly but pull that fall behind the 49ers crap early on and Roman will just run the clock out. Rumors of the demise of the 49ers are greatly exaggerated.

    Saints (-3) over Cowboys – Thanks South Park. Bursting into laughter every time they show Jerry Sunday night.

    Detroit (-1.5) over Jets – I am the same sucker for Lions football as all the poor souls who continue to not realize that betting against the baseball team from the same city is a guaranteed money maker come playoff time. Enjoy getting beat by Baltimore in the 1st round Tigers.

    Nebraska (-20) over Illinois – This line is so bewildering I should be on Illinois.

    Boston College (-7) over Colorado State – Because BC will not make the same mistakes that Colorado made and simply run the ball and convert.

    Essay Pick

    My actual thought process:

    I love when dome teams go north and get to play another dome team that they are better than.

    Completely forgets that Minnesota is now playing outdoors.

    Who gives a shit where the Vikings play?

    Atlanta gets the benefit of having a few more days off. They have the best QB in the NFL that no one really ever talks about. Have a guy at the bar name the Top 10 QBs in the league. Almost no one will ever mention Ryan. That’s fine. The Falcons were one play away from a Super Bowl 2 years ago. They were decimated by injuries last year. They are back and healthy. I think that Bridgewater is a good long term fit for Minnesota but the whole dynamic of that team changes without AP which is kind of weird because RBs really have no real effect on lines. I’ll take the better coach and the better QB big on Sunday.

    Atlanta (-2.5) over Minnesota

  • chuckycrater

    Arizona State +4 vs. UCLA (loss, although in my defense, I had no idea that the Sun Devils would go up 11 points early and then decide not to block, tackle, cover receivers, catch, or protect the ball)

    ALL PLAY: Eagles +5.5 vs. 49ers (I’m with Mike, I think the Niners might totally unravel here soon)

    Baylor -21 vs. Iowa State
    Tennessee +17.5 vs. Georgia
    Steelers -7.5 vs. Bucs

    ESSAY: Saints -3 vs. Cowboys

    Last year, when these two teams played in the Superdome on a Sunday night, the Saints were an incredibly small favorite, maybe -1 or -2. It would have been my pick of the year if that had existed last year. The Saints did not punt, rolled up over 600 yards from scrimmage, and I don’t remember the final score off the top of my head but it was something like 83-16. Yes, there have been a couple of Saints three-point wins the last two times they visited Jerry World, but that was before the Cowboys completely forgot how to play defense (also one was without Sean Payton). Dallas had played three bad offenses so far this season and their defense held up OK, but I think that ends on Sunday night. Plus it’s not really Sunday Night Football if the Dallas Cowboys aren’t disgracing themselves in front of 25 million people.

  • Petefranklin

    Degenerate high school football play) Bishop Gorman -3 over St John Bosco and OVER 52
    The OVER 52 is my lock of the year but it is kind of windy tonight in Vegas.
    All lines available at 5 dimes

    • Petefranklin

      EZ money on the over
      Missed pat and late TD lead to a push.
      Id make gorman a 11 point favorite over ignatius on a neutral field thats not in ohio.I love HS football!!

    • tried to deposit to 5dimes. they gave sketchy info on a western union transfer. tried to talk to customer service. they wouldnt give me WU transfer info without my password. ‘oh sure let me send my unencrypted password to costa rica!’ goodbye 5dimes.

      • Petefranklin

        I’ll emaiil you this evening. Real busy again today with , get this, classes, LOL!

  • shoseph

    Missouri (+6) vs. South Carolina

    Raiders (+3.5) vs. Dolphins
    Chargers (-12.5) vs. Jaguars
    Falcons (-2.5) vs. Vikings
    AP: Eagles (+5.5) vs. 49ers (Essay)
    Cowboys (+3) vs. Saints

    Yet another essay about the Eagles and Chip Kelly this weekend. I was at the 2010 Oregon vs. Stanford game in Eugene, and though that score may look lopsided in favor of the Ducks, the first quarter was very hard to watch as Oregon fell behind 21-3 against a Stanford team led by Andrew Luck. It took some heroics by Darron Thomas and LaMicheal James to start closing the distance by halftime and it was completely different game in the second half, with a 28-0 rout. Though we’re talking about two different games, and two completely different teams, I don’t doubt it will at least be entertaining for one half.

  • Art_Brosef

    Quick trip to trip to Florida tomorrow, which is unfortunate (much like any trip to Florida).

    So lets get this one out of the way. New Mexico +5.5. This Fresno St team has no business giving a home team this amount of points, or any points really . Live dog here.

  • Dave Borcas

    Give me Old Dominion -2.5

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Fire me up for New Mexico +5.5 tonight please. Might as well start off the weekend with some action.

  • Its Only Money

    Buffalo -5 v Miami (Ohio)
    Nebraska -20 v Illinois
    Indianapolis -7.5 v Tennessee
    Pittsburgh -7.5 v Tampa Bay
    All Play Philadelphia +5.5 @ San Francisco

    Essay: Bowling Green -4.5 @ Massachusetts
    This isn’t so much a play on BG as it is against UMASS. BG is going to rack up yards and points against the Minutemen who have had trouble stopping anyone so far this year. We might not see a whole lot of defense on either side in this one, but UMass just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. After a week in Wisconsin the falcons will rebound nicely with the start of their MAC schedule. UMass is horrible overall and ATS I just don’t see anyway this goes their way. They should be a team to fade the entire year.

  • Concierge

    New Mexico +5.5 Essay
    To me this is just way too many points for a home team that has revenge on its mind. Fresno literally has the worst defense in college football. They are giving up 50 points per game which ranks them 125th in the FBS. Just fucking awful. So I’m going to go with the Home team here on a again another Friday degenerate play of the week. Bob Davie is going to be my hero and pull the upset here on a friday special. I hope this game is even shitter than last weeks slop fest of UCONN vs USF that covered… I have Lobster on my mind again.. GO FUCKING LOBOS!!

    ODU -2.5
    Miami OH +5
    Southern Miss +10
    Penn State -10

    San Fran -5.5

    • how to identify a degen: “wagering on bob davie.” check.
      (said the degen who did so last week.)

      • zarathustra

        Wagering on Bob Davie definitely qualifies one as a degenerate.
        (Said the guy with his alarm set for 2:50am so he can watch golf because he has an irresponsible wager on Jim furyk and hunter mahan. Jim Furyk in a Ryder cup match! What could possibly go wrong? If I don’t enter any picks this week, don’t be alarmed. I’ll just be at a GA meeting contemplating how my life could have gone so wrong. )

        • Petefranklin

          Just think, us west coast degenerates can just drink past midnight and catch the action at the bar.

  • Petefranklin

    I’ll throw play #1 out there so you guys can catch the hook that is still out there
    PLAY 1) K.C.Chiefs +3.5 I’m sure Collin Cowherd will be on it as well so bet it now before the line crashes some more. I got +4 on Monday for two units and wish I had some more as it will close at +3 (-120) or lower. Woof woof home doggie!

    • actovegin1armstrong

      oops, I am on the wrong side of that one. I need to learn more about this stuff. Although I hate to change a pick, I dropped the Giants. If I knew what the (-120) meant I would probably be more concerned. Now that you have taught me about that “over-under” stuff, I think I am going to take the under on the -120.

      • Petefranklin

        Refresher…..when the line moves from 4 to 3.5 then ONTO a key # like 3(the keyest), the books don’t want to give up a middle opportunity with the move to 2.5 even though their action may be lopsided which usually warrants an adjustment to 2.5 in this case. So to stop the lopsided action on the +3 they simply make you lay 120 on +3 to win 100. This can get as high as -130, maybe -135 before they move to 2.5.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          Thank you Petefranklin, I understand a little better now, but it is rather odd that when I read your explanation, 90% of everything past “Refresher….” turned into Charley Brown’s teacher.
          Waa waa waap wah.

          • Petefranklin

            Just rent Fast Times at Ridgemont High and study the scene where Damone books a bet in the hallway. Chiefs are -120 over Pats, “OK I’ll take it”. Don’t forget about the 3 point point spread, says Damone.
            Acto can I book your bets?

    • Petefranklin

      Play 2) Temple -4.5… this is a better line than I got (6)Temple is not used ti this role and I hate going against a team that got embarrassed the wek before but I’ve got 21 point HT lead blown to lose outright revenge on my side,

    • Petefranklin

      PLAY 3) DUKE +7 over Miami (FLA)
      This play edges out Miami O just because the Cheddar line on the redskins, errrr red trees, or whatever the hell they call themselves now doesn’t come close to the 7 that I got.

    • Petefranklin

      PLAY 4) Green Bay-1.5
      ALL PLAY) NINERS

    • Petefranklin

      PLAY 6) JETS
      I’ll come up with something for my essay.

      • Petefranklin

        jets are not my essay

    • Petefranklin

      I’m going to make KC my essay play, I’ll write an essay tomorrow.
      I really wanted to make the Niners my essay but that thought got Langed this AM.

  • swig

    1) Cinci +16 over tOSU, double reverse homer pick (alumni of both)
    2) CHIEFS +3.5 over Patriots, hook + pats might be mediocre
    3) Eagles +5.5 over 49ERS, points + eagles can score + 49ers are shaky
    4) Panthers +3 over BALTIMORE, do not feel great about this one, NFC south might be terrible, AFC north might be good
    5) CHARGERS -12.5 over Jaguars, would not normally give this many points, but the jags look awful and the chargers do not
    6) Miami -3.5 over Oakland *** Essay ***

    Sorry for mailing it in this week with the essay, but honestly no weight should be given to my picks anyway. I hack together standard line betting knowledge and do no real research. As such I feel like a dog in this game since I do not really follow college ball, where all the true value lies. Anyway, Miami is a competent team, Oakland is not. Why did the line move towards Oakland, I have no idea because that would require effort. I will give the reduced points even though it does not cross a key number, hashtag gamboling keywords.

    P.S. I really wanted to take the Giants tonight, but was too late to post because my work started blocking google stuff so I could not check the lines at work, boo.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Is that “Eddie the Albino Squirrel”? Eddie is not a mythical monster, I saw him at least twice a week for four months before his suicide. Did you go to Texas swig? If you own Swig, then you may remember my help with your other building. (CC the fiber guy)

      • swig

        First the negative to answer your questions, this picture I pulled from the internet, I went to tOSU and have never been to Texas.

        I live south of campus in C-bus. There are a couple albino/white squirrels running around here and I had a picture I took of one that I used to use.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          My apologies for jumping to delusions. Eddie the Albino Squirrel was famous at the University of Texas, (I went there after I went to tOSU for a while). Eddie had his own comic strip, and oddly enough he is still tweeting 21 years after his horrible death. He did exist, and he was as brazen as reported. I watched him try to open backpacks, jump up on attended tables at Wendy’s and even lap up a spilled beer. The legend of his benevolent exam aid is also true, I received an A on every exam after seeing Eddie.
          (Eddie was actually a white fox squirrel, not an albino.)

  • chuckycrater

    Put me down with the masses taking Arizona State +4 tonight. One point.

  • Lucy Lawrence

    1) ASU +4

  • CLEVTA

    1) ASU +4

    • CLEVTA

      2) Syracuse +13. ND plays Stanford next week, they’ll be looking ahead in Met Life
      3) Wyoming +31. The cowboys held up well at Oregon 2 weeks ago. Put up >400 yds
      4) A&M -8.5
      5) Tampa +7.5 Such a no brainer. This is the NFL, players have pride. Have you seen the injuries on the Steelers already poor D? That secondary is mess, Glennon will produce. McCoy and Martin are back as well
      6) Eagles +5.5. This has trap game written all over it but I dont believe in SF at all. They are just not that good

      • CLEVTA

        Forgot to include my essay. I’ll go with Tampa and add a little more to it. The best wager in the NFL is the overreaction. In this game you get the rare double overreaction from both sides. Steelers were in a must win last week v Carolina on national tv vs an overrated Panther team and Tampa looking as bad as possible on national v as well. Team will rally more around Glennon and that awful Steeler d will keep the backdoor open for Tampa at a minimum but I full expect the Bucs to have a real chance to pull the outright upset

  • Dave Borcas

    I will take UCLA -4 tonight

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Texas Tech +14
    and Redskins -3.5 tough for a team as bad as the skins to play well on the rd on 3 days rest.
    both for 1 point please.

    • Typo here? Freudian slip?

      • Harbaugh Handshakes

        Typo…hopefully not a freudian slip.

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      Can I cancel Texas tech and take ASU +4 instead.

  • I’ll take the New York Giants +3.5 over the Washington Cornball Brothers for one point. I still think the Giants are underrated and I’m always looking to fade the Cornball Bros. Tempting essay pick but I’m still reeling from the brutal loss on my Play of the Year so I’ll give it another day or two.

    • A Minnesota team that can’t pass the ball at all is just what the doctor ordered for a reeling Michigan group that really needs a win and has too many elite athletes to be threatened by such a one dimensional attack. Will take the Wolverines -12 for one point. Back with 4 NFLs and essay tomorrow.

      • Bucs, Bears, Vikings, and Niners for me today, please. I don’t really love any of these this week but I’ll take the Niners for the essay pick for reasons that aren’t terribly exciting. The Niners are desperate to win after a 1-2 start that was somewhat predictable (everybody loved them against the Cardinals in the national 4PM slot last week and they were the huge public favorites agains the Bears on Sunday night the week before). This week they’re at home against an undefeated Eagles team that can afford to drop this one on the road and is hot in the public’s eye despite that 2 of their 3 wins have come against the Jags and Washington. What tips it for me is that the Eagles will be missing 3 starters on the OL today.

  • technivore

    PENN STATE -10.5 over Northwestern (gonna fade my employer all year)
    Texas-San Antonio -5 over FLORIDA ATLANTIC
    Eagles +5.5 over 49ERS (AP)
    CHARGERS -12.5 over Jaguars
    PITT -19.5 over Akron

    Essay
    —–
    TAMU -8.5 over Arkansas

    Everything has to break just right for the Razorbacks to stay in this one, doesn’t it? Arkansas plays an admittedly effective run-heavy style and depends on long, clock eating drives to keep the ball away from the other side. This works as long as you convert in the red zone and keep the lid on the other team’s offense. The 2014 Arkansas Razorbacks have been, surprisingly, pretty good at the former, with a solid 11th overall ranking in red zone TD percentage. It’s on defense where the Razorbacks need to really be concerned however. They have handled their non-SEC opponents handily so far, but Auburn was never really slowed down by their defense and A&M is operating on a whole other level offensively.

    But even if Arkansas comes up huge on defense, does anyone believe they can put together the 3 or 4 long, mistake-free, successful drives they will need? One fumble or ill-timed tackle for loss is all it will take to derail a drive and when you’re depending on grinding out 5-6 yards per play all the way down the field, you can’t afford any mistakes.

    It looks to me like it will take the best defensive effort we’ve seen from Arkansas this season, a near-perfect showing on offense, and possibly even a little luck to stay within two scores of TAMU. I’ll happily roll with a line that I think should be 2-3 points higher. Also, this game is being played on an ostensibly neutral field (Jerry Jones’s monument to hisself in Dallas) but LMAO if you believe the A&M fans won’t be running the place.

    (a good stat roundup for this game put together by an insane A&M fan is can be found here: http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/5055860/2014_PDF_Stats_0927_TAMU_Arky.pdf)

  • Rob

    since I’m NFL-dependent and it’s an already-weak slate with 3 less games than normal, going to close my eyes and pick a side tonight:

    Redskins -3.5

    • Rob

      might as well lock this in now.

      Syracuse +13

    • Rob

      PHI +5.5
      KC +3.5
      ATL -2.5

      Essay:
      TEN +7.5
      I almost made ATL my essay but couldn’t stomach such an obviously public team even though the sharp books are taking Falcon money today, plus I’m holding MIN +3 in other pools. ANYWAYS… going to stick with my recency bias theory and back the team who got shellacked by Cincy last week against the team who railroaded the Jaguars, which should be a theme this week. This line smelled more like 6 to me and won’t pass up getting the full goal line score plus point after touchdown and the hook. Oh, and I’ve got Indy in my survivor pool so nothing like a cross-pool hedge/middle, right?

  • HitTheHorns

    Texas Tech +14

    One cheddar point. 74% on okst and line has bounced around 13 and 14.5…butt here’s more to it…Okst. has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series…they are 2-0 ATS this year, TT 0-2 (I’m not counting games vs. FCS schools)…Texas tech only beat an FCS by one TD in week one, won at UTEP by four as 3 TD road favs, and then got pounded by Arkansas by 3 TDs in Jerry World in a game that was a pick em…they were out rushed by 337 yards…I don’t know much about Okst., but from years past, they like to pass not run so that shouldn’t be as much of a factor tonight…Okst. is starting a backup qb, though he was very impressive in first start in blowout win vs. UTSA…both teams haven’t played since 9/13, and in the meantime this happened: Texas Tech’s defense will be in the spotlight Thursday when the Red Raiders visit Oklahoma State in the Big 12 opener for both teams. Texas Tech gave up 438 rushing yards in a 49-28 loss to Arkansas its last time out and, since that
    contest, defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt abruptly resigned from his position for being under the influence of an improper substance on campus, according to reports. The Red Raiders have allowed 36.7 points per game this season, ranking 112th in the nation. Also, my wife digs Kingsbury.

    • HitTheHorns

      Adding NY Giants +3.5 for one cheddar point.

  • cwonder23

    Essay and All Play to follow
    Ok St -12.5 vs TTU
    Temple -4.5 @ UCONN
    ‘Skins -3.5 vs NYG
    Minnesota +12 @ Michigan
    Essay: Baylor -21 @ Iowa State
    I stand by my earlier comments that Iowa State is one of the worst teams in the country. Although, they have the home field advantage in this one, the team that is coming to town is too explosive on offense for the Clowns to stop. Bryce Petty gets two of his favorite targets back for the team that crushed ISU 71-7 last year. Baylor comes into this contest averaging 59.3 points per game but what is more impressive to me, and doesn’t get enough attention, is that their defense is only giving up 9 points a game. Granted, the early season competition hasn’t been very tough but that trend continues this week. Coming off an off-week, I expect Baylor to be fresher

    • cwonder23

      Mike, the edit functionality works this year, right?

      • on comments? yes, it should work. if editing the substance of picks, we do ask you to reply to yourself and not edit,, if that’s what you mean.

        • cwonder23

          Thanks. Just had the Ok State spread wrong originally.

          • cwonder23

            9ers -5.5

  • ChuckKoz

    Ohio State -16 (vs Cincy)
    USC -8.5 (vs OSU)
    Giants +3.5 (at DC Football Team)
    Saints -3 (at Dallas)
    AP: 49ers -5.5 (vs Eagles)
    Essay: Falcons -2.5 (at Vikings)

    Falcons have proved, thusfar, to be a very well-balanced team on offense, defense, and special teams. They are easily in the discussion as the top team in the NFC so far. Yes, they struggled in Cincy (as many teams will), but will be in the friendly-surroundings of a dome for this road trip. And I don’t exactly expect this dome crowd to be as fanatic as one would hope. The Vikes, coming of a 5 win season, started this season looking decent by beating the Rams in STL. Since then they lost their best player (AP), they lost their starting QB (Cassell), everyone is talking about how much of a scumbag their owner is, and everyone in MSP is talking about how they can’t believe they gave that scumbag all this money for a new football stadium. As it should be, morale is down around that team and very high around ATL. I like the Falcons, especially with them being cognizant of the importance of winning their tough division, to not take these guys lightly.

    • HitTheHorns

      Vikings are playing their home games at Univ. of Minnesota this year.

      • ChuckKoz

        Hmm, that’s embarrassing I didn’t realize that. Not like my picks can do much worse this year anyway.

        • HitTheHorns

          you and me both, my man.

        • Petefranklin

          Good line there but I’m on the Vikes when they hit 3.5 sunday AM.

  • CLEVTA

    Can I get some clarity on what happened with that Clemson/FSU line ruling? I’m racking my brain trying to figure out how changing the line on saturday of gameday was fair to everyone? It’s total game theory in place and even better bc everyone in cheddar gets to see who we all take. If you think the line was too stale with all the movement bc of Jameis then you have every opportunity to take the “free” point if you consider it a slam dunk W for clemson.

    • HitTheHorns

      100% agree. weird precedent to set.

    • the line moved a full touchdown when jimbo dropped jameis for the full game. thus fsu -20 was no longer a valid line. but we cant kill the game altogether because then we’re porking those who took clemson +20 prior to the full game announcement.

      we dont mind a little float between wednesday lines and kickoff but that line move was unprecedented so we did an unprecedented response.

      • CLEVTA

        Promise not to belabor the point but what difference does it make about the line move? Every cheddarer has the ability and option to pick Clemson +20. Nobody is stopping them so if truly is a gift then everyone participates. Also, there have been many huge line moves like that one in lower profile games that went undiscovered. 7.5 point line move in CFB isn’t unprecedented at all. But those are my two cents nbd

        • Rob

          agree with all above, and will not speak of this again after my post. I think if you’re going to use stale lines, that’s fine, and if the executive decision to change one is made, well, that’s sorta fine. My issue with the ruling is that not everyone was able to use the same line.

          • I don’t understand the problem here. Anyone who locked in on +20.5 was free to keep it. Anyone else was free to change. Where’s the downside in preventing people from loading up on all those points once it’s clear that a game-changing lineup change has happened?

          • To clarify, the upside in making such moves is that the contest tends toward the boring and useless when we allow “free points” like would have been in place with Clemson +20.5.

          • HitTheHorns

            My number one rule of gambling is when something seems obvious, stay away from it. Had Vegas taken the game off the board, I would understand making changes mid-week. This is a risk assessment contest as much as it is a gambling contest; if there wasn’t a game play aspect, we would all submit our picks silently and the person with the best record wins. As was previously stated, if someone wants to take the chance on what appears to be a sure thing, let them do it. You guys to a great job running this thing, not criticizing, just offering my view.

          • chuckycrater

            Fortunately it was all water under the bridge. I will say as someone who had Clemson at +20.5, when the line was reset to 10 or whatever it was, we should have been prevented from turning it into an essay pick and getting three easy points instead of one. I don’t think anyone did that, but they could have.

      • Petefranklin

        I would have been completely screwed if my Clemson pick was cancelled as I didn’t check back until Sunday AM. I would have lost a point completely. I think you handled it accordingly, I was not above taking the free points like I was last year which kept me out of the playoffs. There were a lot of points given out on bad lines last year so this year I will try to capitalize on those opportunities more although NFL games that move 2.5 points are usually death to the move.
        These Hilton lines are ahead of most moves that will bury the Wednesday lines that we are playing.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Giants +3.5 over The Certain Ethnic Team
    Have liked Cousins since he was at MSU, had him ranked above RGINJURY before the draft and happy he is playing instead of RGINJURY, but the New York Football Giants had his number last year and they will scheme well against him this year too. Giants are a bit underrated and The Certain Ethnic Team is looking for a place to collapse.
    Pitt -19.5 over Akron My angle on this game was drawn exclusively from that all important first meeting between these schools, however I am certain that none of the players from that game shall be in attendance to help with scouting.
    New England -3.5 over KC and the Sunshine Band
    Carolina, (not certain which direction) +3 over Ratbirds
    Boise State -12 over Air Force
    ****UTSA -4 over Florida Atlantic**** essay
    Coker with a bye week, Carter is back, he looked good in his limited action throwing the ball in practice, his injury moved this line at least 3 points, Tucker Carter tweeted that he is “FEELING GOOD”, and FAU still sucks moving the ball. UTSA may also get Adams, Johnston and Burge back on defense, a defense that has been playing well against powerhouse opponents. I would have to consult PeteFranklin on this, but this may be a good game to take the under. The weather at game time in Del Boca Vista is expected to be 82 degrees with a very light drizzle. That should feel like a mid-winter, football day for the UTSA kids. They may have never seen that rain thing, but the cool temperatures will be a welcome relief. This should be an easy game for the Roadrunners, (Acme products notwithstanding).

    • Petefranklin

      No opinion on the total of 47, but I am on Texas St/Tulsa OVER 66

    • give us a pick on the eagles-niners and let us know which of these to drop. (not using boise as it stands.)

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Sorry Mike, did I foul up the Boise line as well as forgetting the allplay? I need a tutorial every week on how to read the line you post. I make a cluster mess of my picks every week.
        Please drop the Gianis game and give me the Eagles in the allplay.

        • lines were fine, just without the allplay i not only dont have the allplay pick but have to decide which to drop. i try to let the player no which one i’m dropping in case he goes incommunicado. its a long process.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Mike, may I please make UTSA my ****Super Terrific Happy Lineoleic Fantastic Pick of the Year****?

          • yes you may.

          • Petefranklin

            Someone RING THAT COWBELL!!

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Just like at the carnival, Bobo the Dog Faced Boy makes another prediction.

          • actovegin1armstrong
          • Petefranklin

            Theres a Motorhead viewer video of Dog faced Boy thats pretty good as well. It has great, uh, how do you say “performers”

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtwL96wd8f8

          • actovegin1armstrong

            I love Motorhead’s DFB, and this is great too considering their obvious liability.
            What do you call a person who hangs around with musicians?
            A drummer.

    • acto, the line is UTSA -5. minus four was the opening line, -5 is what we’re using (from las vegas hilton, wednesday morning). don’t know if the point is make or break but wanted to be clear.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        “lines were fine, just without the allplay”
        This is obviously a conspiracy of epic proportions. The Executive Committee is out to get me!
        Not to worry though, I have a very sophisticated cybermetric algorithm that has UTSA winning by 263 points and the game being called with mercy rule at halftime. Please leave my pick the way it is.
        I wish you would stop giving in to Frownie and helping him fulfill his desire to prove that “Acto is clueless”. I will prove that fact myself very soon, if I have not done so already.

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    Thanks OXR! Every little bit helps my dramatic climb out of the basement to the top of the leaderboard

  • Peter Markos

    INDIANA -4 OVER MARYLAND
    Go away Terps, you cant even beat a Big 10 basketball school.
    NOTRE DAME -13 OVER SYRACUSE
    INDY -7.5 OVER TENN
    PHILLY
    SD -12.5 OVER JAX
    PITT -7.5 OVER TB The Bucs do not have a pass rush nor do they have cornerbacks. Ben will look like a superstar against the Paperbag Pirates. Napoleon Dynamite won’t be able to keep up. Doug Martin is the poster boy for the modern NFL running back norm. A splash of production and then off to the island of sidelined for life. Mike Evans cant make plays and Vincent Jackson is being doubled. This ineptitude goes back to firing John Gruden. Why would you fire a guy that won you a Super Bowl? Former GM Mark Dominic is a TV analyst. What ever analysis he gives, just keep in mind he built the team that lost to the Falcons by 40 points last week.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Perhaps even farther? Tony Dungy building a Superbowl team before Chuckie took over, then Gruden won with Dungy’s defense.

      • Peter Markos

        Perhaps. Both a great coaches. Gruden won the SB with Brad Johnson as his QB and played against his old team. Maybe he deserves double credit. Also, Gruden’s Raiders teams were just plays away from reaching SBs (tuck rule). Anyway, firing him was the beginning of the Bucs misery.