#CheddarBay wk 3; Eagles/Colts.

FolesLuck

Back when Foles and Luck faced each other in the Pac-12.

UPDATE:  We’ll go with the Eagles getting 3.5 from the Colts at Indy Saturday night for the all-play.  Also late lines:  

  • Toledo +11 at Cincy,
  • Baylor -35 at UB,
  • Boise -16 at UConn.

Howdy Cheddars.  Just a placeholder with the lines for this week this morning.  Remember to use the lower of the two lines under the game; the first is the opening line, we’re using the LVH current as of Wednesday morning line.

There are several games without lines posted; when I see them posted (or when you alert me that LVH has posted a line) I will update the post with the official cheddar line both here and in the scoreboard widget.

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Will be back with the all-play picks and other things.


PS:  check out The A to Z Podcast with Zac and Andre.


Other notes:

University of Wisconsin v Minnesota

Love the Gophers’ new stadium and the Vikings’ home for this year. Click to enlarge.

1.  My pick for the all-play was Pats at Vikes.  It was soundly defeated, 3-1, in the Exec Committee vote.  But I still think I made a good case for it in my bulleted presentation to the board:

  • Are the Pats finally falling off the cliff?
  • Sam Monson’s accurate appraisal of “Brady-not-top-5-QB” causes simultaneous beet red irish pumpkin heads to explode all over Massachusetts.
  • Belichick smartest guy in the room move — giving away Logan Mankins — kicks him in the nuts.
  • Could be vikes be as good as the 34-6 win at Rams last week indicates?
  • Added bonus:  first outdoor home game in Minnesota three decades?  Will be glorious and they’ll kick themselves for building just another stupid dome.
BxHBZcWIgAA1uWi.jpg-large

Josh Gordon: clean cut man of the people. THIS!! More of this Josh. Nurture your inner square.

The EC was not swayed.  But good news is that I have an early essay candidate.

2.  Josh Gordons selling cars in his down time is awesome.  Keeps him grounded, connects him to regular people, gives him structure and routing.  All great things for the addiction-prone.  And also reminds me of the old-school NFL where Lou Groza was out selling insurance in the off-season.  Really great to see Gordon like this.

3.  Don’t know if this rises to the level of a post but check out where the Browns ranks in terms of height and weight.  Just another example of savant roster-builder1 Joe Banner being smarter than everyone else?  Or meaningless data points not correlating to anything?  I really don’t know,,, but still, kinda interesting.

4.  I’m settling in on 603brown.com I think for the new URL.  This is happening.  I’m futzing with the headers (see above) and auditioning new themes behind the scenes.  Moving a URL is non-trivial (and I was simply dumb to co-opt the name of a living person).  But a new look keeps things lively and I wouldn’t have done anything unless forced.  Let that be a lesson:  everybody re-arrange your family room.  It’s stale and you know it.

Download (PDF, 216KB)


  1. Is he a roster-builder?  An interior-designer?  A fashion expert?  A construction project manager?  An architect?  A nutritionist/chef?  Answer:  when you’re omniscient you can and are all things. [back]
  • zarathustra

    Did you know Andrew Luck is 10-0 ATS off a loss? This is not so surprising as he is awesome. I’m still taking the birds for the all-play.

    Eagles +3.5 over Colts

    • Petefranklin

      10 -0 ATS in the first half as well. Colts -2.5 1H

  • HitTheHorns

    Colts -3.5 for the all play.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Eagles +3.5 for the all play.

  • thatsfine

    Eagles +3.5 for the all play. Thanks.

  • **Essay** Pats -3 over
    Vikings

    In a sick, laughable way, I’m strangely okay of taking
    advantage Wednesday’s line. At this point, I can only revel in the continuous
    ways NFL players, owners, etc. continue to be abusive. Is this a situation
    where the minority is poorly misrepresenting a generally innocent majority? I’m
    starting to think not. They’ve abused dogs. They’ve abused their bodies to a
    point where they will not remember their children’s names in the near future.
    This punishes not only them but they’re families. They abuse drugs and alcohol
    and firearms. They assault their loved ones and I’m just tired of being fan, a
    supporter, a proponent. Sometimes life is too much and too sad that you can’t
    help but laugh. In light of Peterson’s indictment, I’m laughing all the way and
    taking the Pats – with something to prove after last week.

    Dolphins -1 over Bills.

    Titans -3.5 over Cowboys. One of the few things I’m looking
    forward to this year is the inevitable injury of Romo and Weeden coming in to
    save the day. I really miss his blooper reel worthy antics.

    Detroit +3 over Carolina – because I’d like to continue to
    benefit from the late deactivation of abusive starting players.

  • Nick

    Jags + 6 vs Skins
    All Play: Phily +3.5 vs Indy
    Arizona (pk) over NY Giants
    Essay Play: Titans -3.5 vs Dallas

    Strong start for Tennessee to the year and I think they continue to roll in their home opener. They are a nice under the radar team right now, Ken Wisenhunt is a damn good football coach. His buddy Ray Horton is handling the Defense again, for whatever that’s worth, I think they make a good team together. Bill Barnwell’s article on the Dallas defense a few weeks ago was pretty scathing and it does appear they will have a historically bad defense this year. Need a big Sunday here so I’m picking against what I perceive to be some of the worst teams in the NFL this year.

  • trashycamaro

    Sorry, I’m doing this on my phone.

    NYG pk over AZ
    MN +3 over NE
    SEA -5.5 over San Diego
    NYJ +8 over GB – essay
    PHI +3.5 over Indy

    • trashycamaro

      Change essay to Seattle, coming later

      • trashycamaro

        OK fellas (and ladies) – been a rough weekend. Awoke to the annual disappointment of M&T Bank stadium not collapsing dark knight returns style with the Ravens and Steelers on it on Friday morning. This was then compounded by having to fly to the spawning place of all that is evil (Pittsburgh, obv) and then driving to that weird area of the country where the football fans are a strange mix of Ravens and Steelers fans (somewhere in rural Maryland). At least the wedding was nice.

        Complicating the weekend was my only way to get online was my mobile phone – not a great way to research, write or comment (sorry Mike).

        Anyway, I have almost emerged from the spawning place of all evil and managed to realize at the last minute that I was infected to think one of my favorite underrated teams was the best bet for the NFL slate -NYJ. Every year, they get no respect. This is not a great team, and I don’t expect them in the playoffs. But guys, there defense is really, really, really good and will always be while Rex Ryan is in charge. They really should not be giving 8 to anyone outside of Seattle. However, this is not the best bet on my board, even though I will ride then until their line straightens out I’m a couple weeks.

        We just saw last Thursday how dominant Seattle’s D is and how silly there O is with Percy. They should be getting spreads like you see with Denver this week (-13 on a playoff team from last year that still has its qb). So, until this adjusts I will be riding Seattle for some serious value.

  • Peter Markos

    ARI -2.5 over NYG
    INDY -3 over PHI
    SEA -5.5 over SD
    DEN -13.5 over KC
    Von Miller make his comeback today. Ware will be a factor on a Denver defense that will take Peyton back to the SB.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    I would like to switch off of my Vikings play if that is possible. Just not feeling confident with everything swirling around there with AP. So I would like to take the Vikings off and add the Bears +7 as my last play. Thanks, buddy!

  • CLEinMPLS

    Dallas +3.5
    Detroit +3
    Jacksonville +6
    Seattle -5.5 (essay)

    I think this week’s NFL slate is pretty tough to pick. That said, I like Seattle going on the road (staying in their time zone), and beating the hell out of San Diego. Seattle has had 10 days to prepare for a San Diego team that is coming off a close, low scoring game on Monday night. I think Seattle will be able to move the ball quite easily on the Chargers defense. Russell Wilson is excellent at taking what the defense gives him, and obviously Lynch is going to get his. You just know that the Seattle secondary is going to drive Rivers nuts. Chargers may keep it close for awhile, but Seattle is a 60 minute team.

    • CLEinMPLS

      Kanick I am going to take the NYG (pick) instead of Dallas.

  • zarathustra

    I still lean toward the Jags, but methinks that might be a little too cute for someone who desperately needs a point today. I am going to pull that one and replace it with:

    Lions +3 over Panthers

  • This shit is serious.

  • Peter Markos

    ND -28 over Purdue
    OKLA -20 over TENN
    More to follow…

  • clayII

    USC (-17) / BC
    Colorado (+15.5) / ASU
    Nebraska (-10) / Fresno
    UTEP (-10.5) / NM St
    Nevada (+15.5) / Arizona
    all play will be essay

    • clayII

      Indy (-3.5) / Philly
      Like the Colts and Luck coming off a loss. More so because philly has all kind of problems on the o-line. I also love the stat that Luck has not lost back to back games in last 33 starts. I am also much more impressed with the colts comeback that fell short vs Denver than the philly comeback win vs Jax. So little to go on this early in the year, take the home team with the better (imo) qb

  • Tim Butler

    Just getting my college pick in:
    UNLV +10 over uni

    5 NFL games tomorrow morning.

    • Tim Butler

      Or right now…

      BILLS +1 over dolphins
      VIKES +3 over patriots
      seahawks -5.5 over CHARGERS
      eagles +3.5 over COLTS (ALL PLAY)

      Essay: PANTHERS -3 over lions

      This game sticks out to me for a number of reasons. The lions are coming off a win on Monday night, feeling good about themselves, with a short week, going on the road. Typically, teams that win on Monday, lose on Sunday (I think I might just be making that up). But anyway, the lions are a public dog on the road, who people are feeling good about because they played a mediocre game against the terrible giants. I’ll take the Panthers -3 at home.

  • Nick @nmesha: Put me on Illinois +13.5 and Minnesota +17.5 for #cheddarbay thanks @603_brown

  • oxr

    Obligatory college pick: UCLA -7.5 over Texas. Later/tomorrow for the pros.

    • oxr

      Hm, things are going poorly. And last week, while going underdog-heavy wasn’t a bad idea, I generally picked the wrong underdogs.

      All-Play Eagles +3.5 over Colts
      Pats -3 over Vikings – trying not to overreact to one game
      Saints -6.5 over Browns – going against sentiment here
      Jaguars +6 over Redskins

      Essay Texans -3 over Raiders – Early in the NFL season, when anyone could still potentially be good, it can be a magical thing to figure out a bad team and relentlessly pick against them until the lines start to get silly. Lately these bad teams have usually been the Raiders. Sure, they covered against the Jets last week but I’m not really that high on the Jets either and the Texans may, at least, be competent. Derek Carr is a rookie who has not reacted well to pressure so far, and now he has J.J. Watt to contend with. The husk of Maurice Jones-Drew is apparently not playing, so it’s a question of whether Latavius Murray, whose name I just had to look up, is going to carry the load. On the other hand, since I am up against him in fantasy football I fully expect Arian Foster to have a monster game. Three points is a justifiably tentative line, but who knows how easy it’ll be to get single digits against Oakland a few weeks from now. (Live by the three-point road favorite, die by the three-point road favorite.)

  • Dave Borcas

    Last 3 picks
    Nebraska -10
    Colts -3.5
    Seattle -5.5 (essay)
    Lets go back to April 26, 2012. Tom Heckert was waking up with a hangover, Fat Mike was setting up the buffet station in Berea clad in his new moo moo and Pat Shoomer was cutting Uncle Mikes grass. Later that day this collective brain trust (loosely used) made the ill fated decision to draft Bandon Weeden to cement their places in the hall of shame that is ex Browns regimes. That leads me to Seattle and Russell Wilson. What a perfect person to run the West Coast offense of our then, heralded QB guru. Pete Carroll has produced the perfect offense with a power running game and a QB in Wilson that takes advantage when opportunities arise during the game. Put that offense with a defense that is as physical and as fast as any in the league and what we have here is a team that has a chance, slim as it is to run the table this year. Soon this team will be broken up due to contracts expiring and salaries about to explode, but enjoy it while you can.

  • Matt Borcas

    South Carolina +5.5 over Georgia
    Penn State -3 over Rutgers
    Giants pk over Cards
    Eagles +3.5 over Colts

    • Matt Borcas

      Browns +6.5 over Saints: Pettine better have studied tape of Mangini’s 2010 masterpiece in New Orleans in preparation for this.

      ESSAY: Texans -3 over Raiders
      MJD’s absence will seriously underscore Derek Carr’s lack of weapons vis-a-vis the admittedly not-at-all immortal Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gets a healthy Arian Foster (vintage 103-yard performance last week!), Andre Johnson (who apparently refuses to age), and the ascendant DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, Carr gets Rod Streater and James Jones’s corpse. And Fitzy has always been decent at the beginning of seasons, right? Anyway, that’s to say nothing of JJ Watt, who was even more of a beast than usual last week, and punishing safety/star-in-the-making DJ Swearinger. And Bill OB >>> Dennis Allen, obvi.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Last 3 picks:

    South Carolina +5.5 over Georgia ***
    Colts -3.5 over Eagles (All Play)
    Vikings +3 over Patriots

    *** I’m not convinced this Georgia team is a top 4 playoff team. While Gurley is obviously a beast, this Bulldogs team is still really young. Clemson was probably over-rated coming into the season so that win over them doesn’t seem that impressive. I read that South Carolina hasn’t been a home
    underdog in 4 years when they upset Alabama in 2010. The Gamecocks have their backs against the wall and I like how Spurrier said this team isn’t as talented as in the past. Reverse psychology maybe? A bunch of the experts are going with Georgia but I’ll buck the trend and see this a close game or even upset.

  • shoseph

    South Carolina +5.5
    Notre Dame -28
    UCLA -7.5

    Broncos -13
    49ers -7
    All Play: Eagles +3.5

    Essay to come tomorrow.

    • shoseph

      Oof, this whole thing isn’t going well for me. Anyway, essay is for the Eagles vs. Colts game:

      So, after the results of the past few weeks, I’m thinking that I’m pretty bad picking the over and under for sporting events. But this shouldn’t be the main focus of this essay; this essay should be why my pick for the Eagles is the best bet of the week. After initially struggling against the Jags last week, the Eagles finally got into high gear and shutout their opponent in the second half. This is the Chip Kelly style that we enjoyed when he coached in Oregon. Mediocre first halves followed by blowout second halves. Now, I have no idea if the Eagles are like this all the time, but I’m going to guess this is what’s going to happen against the Colts. Of course, you shouldn’t listen to me at all: I’m terrible at predictions. But, hey, this guess is better than nothing at all.

  • squeekycleen

    Tough travel last few days, but here they are:

    Essay: MARYLAND: Country’s main exposure to West Virginia so far was their reasonably effective performance against might Bama. Logic would serve that they would be able to parlay that performance into a win here against an inferior opponent. Throw in the 37-0 pounding Maryland delivered to West Virginia last year and you have the recipe for a live dog. Still, we have a name discrepancy here as public stubbornly believes in West Vag who was atrocious last year and probably not much better this year. Maryland is improved, and really should take this game easily. Plus they are wearing those stupid uniforms.

    Others:
    St. Louis Rams
    East Carolina
    Rutgers
    Tennessee Titans
    All Play: Eagles

  • Hangover Picks:
    WVU +3
    OREGON -43
    MIZZOU -9.5

    • WKU +1

      COLTS -3.5

      CHARLIE MUNGER MIS-PRICED BET OF THE WEEK:

      So I know a girl who “inadvertently” hung out with Matt Stafford a lot in college at UGA, and she claims him to be a royal douche. Perhaps she is jealous: http://bit.ly/1AK8SJM, or perhaps she really has a point: http://bit.ly/1uuyryp. Either way, I become more and more impressed every day with his ability to play the quarterback position. He is the Anti-Cutler in his non-traditional approach (meaning he does it well), and is rarely reckless-even as a gunslinger. He’s tough as hell. He’s got great mechanics when he needs them, but he’s also got a rare ability to make throws from all different arm angles, and off balance, on the run, moving to his left–you get the idea. As good as his support staff is on offense, this kid makes even Megatron better. His weaknesses have become few and his strengths have only improved. He will eventually win a Superbowl. Probably not this year, but guys like Brady, Brees and Manning can’t play forever, and Stafford is only 26.

      I’m not forgetting the other side, but Cam simply isn’t there yet. His squad is inferior when it comes to scoring points. He’s not taken a real snap yet this season. And his number one weapon is playing in his 2nd NFL game. Expect Carolina to be playing from behind, and expect Cam to make some early-season mistakes.

      Not feeling the home-field advantage, and not feeling as though the price is right on this one. Love the Lions on the road to win by double digits.

      LIONS +3

  • trashycamaro

    WKu +1 more later

  • Dave Borcas

    Early picks
    Indiana -7
    Air Force -11
    Missouri -9.5

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Three early picks:
    1) Indiana -7 over Bowling Green
    2) Missouri -9.5 over Central Florida
    3) Virginia +6.5 over Louisville

  • Art_Brosef

    I sort of hate this, but I havent seen an oz of interest on this game here on the Bay, so lets see if I can gain a little ground on a game nobody is talking about. If there is one coach in the Big 12 I dont trust to show up when it matter, its Bob Stoops. Instead of running his mouth about how overrated the SEC is, he should coach a little better when it matters most. Tennessee is going to be absolutely stoked for this game, and OU will respond with the arrogance of a Bob Stoops who wrongly feels they shouldnt deign to play said opponent in the first place. Tennessee fights hard, OU pulls away in the fourth but doesnt cover.

    **Tennesee +20.5

    I want to take IU here but wont really gain much on the field, so Ill also take CMU +4 over a Syracuse team who could barely be bothered to outperform Villanova last week. This is too many points for what should be an evenly matched game, so ill take the home team getting points.

    • is that the essay pick?

      • Art_Brosef

        I cant help but be a smartass here. Yes. As denoted by the 100+ words and two stars next to the pick.

  • mo_by_dick

    Oklahoma -20.5 for one point, please, per Bob Stoops feeling “some type of way” about playing an SEC team.

    http://www.tulsaworld.com/sportshomepage2/is-it-oklahoma-vs-tennessee-or-stoops-vs-sec/article_e54ed9cb-db0d-500d-9ea9-d19f5d65c501.html

    “We all know Coach Stoops’ feelings about the SEC. As his guys, we’re 100 percent behind him,” Grissom said. “We’re going to make sure we help him out there and make a statement in that aspect.”

    • mo_by_dick

      Saints -6.5
      ***Patriots -3 (ESSAY)
      Seahawks -5.5
      49ers -7

      Eagles +3.5 (AP)

      I told myself I wouldn’t do this. I balked at this essay pick because it seemed so loaded, given the obviously appalling allegations making this game (along with the PIT/BAL matchup) a discomfiting representation of the shitshow of humanity, accountability, and public relations that is the NFL. But alas this is Cheddar Bay, and while this is not a morality play by any means, it doesn’t hurt. It’s not as if we can take a scale and mete out the sins and good deeds of each side and arrive at a conclusion we feel good about; that’s just not the reality in life, regardless of context. So, if I’m going to avoid the cognitive dissonance of being both an intelligent consumer of media who still actively follows this league, it’s gotta be about the game. ‘This is my substitute for pistol and ball,’* if you will, vis a vis my NFL fandom. If A.D. were out with ‘an ankle,’* I’d make the same pick — because he is the key to that offense, and Belichick knows Cassell, and I don’t think Brady loses two games in a row to the Dolphins and the Vikings.

      *See, Melville.
      **reminder to commission a study of the rhetoric of football injuries and whether the language used within the sport to describe injuries has any effect in encouraging those associated with it to minimize/trivialize serious harm to self and others.***
      ***reminder to author that we said this wasn’t a morality play.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        “You imbecile, not now Cato!”
        mo_by_dick quietly takes to the ship (on Cheddar Bay)

  • for @alrhode via twitter:

    Week 3 picks:
    U of MN +14
    Purdue +28
    Tampa Bay -4.5 (essay coming later)
    Indy -3.5
    Seattle -5.5
    Cleveland +6.5

  • AlvaroEspinoza10

    Will post essay by NFL kickoffs tomorrow, but for now:
    –Patriots -3 over Vikings. Pats >> Bradford-less Rams, Vikings << Miami. Can't believe this line, guess it's just wishful thinking that Pats and Brady are on the decline
    –Saints -6.5 over Browns 🙁 Saw a stat yesterday that Browns are 0-10 ATS in last 10 home openers. Hoping I'm wrong on this one
    –Duke -16 over Kansas (people still sleeping on Duke, Kansas is baaaaaad)
    –Seahawks -5.5 over San Diego (I saw 0 weaknesses in Seahawks against GB)
    –Louisville -6.5 over Virginia

    Will post Eagles/Colts pick later too. Also a chance I sub out an NFL pick for a MIA/BUF pick, if that's allowed.

    • AlvaroEspinoza10

      Nah, making that pick now: Eagles +3.5 over Colts. I liked what someone below said about D’Qwell trying to cover over the middle of the field. Plus the Colts are still running out T-Rich over there..

      Essay coming tomorrow on one of the NFL picks

      • AlvaroEspinoza10

        CHANGE IN PICK– now picking Colts over Eagles

        It’s tough to trust Nick Foles on MNF after the way he played last week. Especially after watching the Washington football team crush the Jaguars on Sunday, I’m less impressed with the Eagles win last wee. Sorry, Kanick, but the Jags do not look good, especially their O-line. My one worry about this game is the Colts D (D’Qwell and company) against the Eagles D, but at home I think they’ll play okay. Very impressed with Andrew Luck and the way he played against the Broncos. Going against Bill Barnwell and his bald head and hoodie is almost enough to pick for the Colts every game. Ultimately, it comes down to home field advantage. Just like last week, I’m going with the home team that’s hungry for the win and playing against a loud, pumped up crowd. Have been back and forth on this all week, but going Colts.

  • zarathustra

    Steelers (L)
    Jaguars +6 over Washington
    All-Play TBD
    Nevada +15.5 over Arizona
    Arizona should be able to run all over them, but I’ll take the far superior qb with more than a two touchdown cushion.
    Indiana -7 over Bowling Green
    Bad action? I don’t think so. There is nobody I would trust more than concierge on this one. This is what cheddar bay is all about–benefiting from the wisdom of fellow degenerates.

    Iowa St. +10.5 over Iowa***
    I am not a Paul Rhodes fan. I can’t imagine he survives past this season. But, I watched Iowa St against K St. last weekend and the team has heart. They were down two touchdowns right off the bat but absorbed it and really dominated K. St for the better part of the game. K st came back because that’s what they do, but for the Cyclones there is no shame in letting one slip away to a team that very possibly will win your conference. They are looking at 0-3 with conference play on deck. They know they need a win and I am wagering last week was enough to make them believe they can win this one.
    This is of course a rivalry game. Let’s look at the recent history shall we:
    ’13 Iowa 27-21
    ’12 Iowa St. 9-6
    ’11 Iowa St 44-41
    I will take to 10.5 here and also be tasting the moneyline.

  • HitTheHorns

    Maryland -3
    San Diego Chargers +5.5
    Colorado +15.5
    South Carolina +5.5

    Back later later with essay write on NY Giants PK and the all play pick,

    • HitTheHorns

      Giants PK – I really like betting bad teams. Especially off blow out losses on national television. And they play a team that just won a game on national tv. I’m seeing three out of every four bets is on AZ, which is exactly what I’d expect after each team’s week one performance. Now, AZ travels to NY for a 1:00 kickoff after their Monday game ended after 1:00 a.m. EST. Wish I could get the two points that’s currently out there, but really don’t think I need them. I will essay games like this all year, as the public will continue to overreact to one game.

  • AmplifiedEsq

    1) Colts -3.5: The Colts have enough old guys they won’t have to fake injuries to slow the Eagles down, they’ll be real. Foles looked off week 1, need to see more this week from him. Also, bold prediction of the week, T-Rich goes for a run greater than 10 yards.

    2) New England -3: Like someone else before… I was very tempted to make this pick of the year, but won’t even make it my essay because I am worried about that NE defense stopping Cordarelle and the O-Line was just awful. And, as we saw with the Ravens, a little adversity for the team can be a good thing (granted losing Ray Rice is a lot different than losing AP at this point…). That said – don’t see the Patriots starting 0-2 with losses to the Dolphins and Vikings.

    3) New Orleans -6.5: I think love what I saw from the Browns in the second half last week… But that first half had caused me to drink enough to not be sure. I have no faith that Justin Gilbert will be able to stop whichever WR he is tasked with defending (please not Cooks…). I know Brees is a different QB outside the dome, but how can I disagree with Carl of Aqua Teen? (http://youtu.be/a0HTJCDq4Dw)

    4) Texas A&M -32: “Kenny Trill” is the latest and greatest trademark to come from A&M. I expect to see what Baylor did last night to Buffalo in this game.

    5) Oregon -43: Again, expect an absolute destruction here.

    6) Green Bay -8 (Essay)

    Green Bay is going to be at home looking to get their first win of the year. They’ll have Lacy back, but more importantly they’ll be playing Geno Smith. I don’t think Geno is as bad as people make it seem, but he’s certainly not good. The Jets barely got by an Oakland team with David Carr starting his first NFL game ever and only managed to do so thanks to some big plays by the offense. I don’t see those same big plays happening against Green Bay. Which means I don’t see the Jets scoring more than the 19 they did last week, at best.

    The Packers only put up 16 last week, so they’ve got some making up to do for how highly touted their offense is. The Jets must have a weak secondary seeing as they claimed Leon McFadden (though I believe he has since been waived). Dee Millner will be back for Jets secondary this week, but has a bum ankle and is going to be covering Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb. I like the Packers chances to move the ball in the air with consistency. I also expect them to do it more than they would like to in an attempt to get some of the workload off Lacy coming back from a concussion.

    Ultimately I don’t expect this to be close, but even if it is – that’s when I expect Geno’s inexperience and ability to make stupid plays to take over, resulting in an easy GB win and cover.

  • Petefranklin

    Pick #2 Indiana -7 I hate laying this much when in real life I only laid three and a half on Sunday.
    Pick #3 WKU +1 Two pretty good teams but WKU will pull away easily in the end
    On a side note I slept like a baby last night after going 2-0 and ending a 15 game schnide so I feel pretty good about these two.

    • Petefranklin

      Sorry ABORT #3 I was about to get Langed again NO WKU for me.

      Lets make Iowa Pick #3, it’s a decent enough # and the Hawks should be able to show some offense vs. this Iowa St Defense that choked late last week.

    • Petefranklin

      Pick #4 Georgia ST +20

      • it’s georgia southern who is +20 at gatech;; georgia state is +12 vs AFA. i’m putting you down for GaSo, ok?

        • Petefranklin

          Right, Ga Southern,and I couldn’t find a live version but I’ve never seen this version before this morning, worth a lookhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DS3N2DbziY

        • Petefranklin

          I just checked back and Ga Southern was supposed to be my essay. I like the Colts for the all play. I should have 1 pick left so I’ll take Buffalo.

          • got it, this was my mistake. fixed.

      • Petefranklin

        Let’s go ahead and take the extra line value here with the Eagles and make them my essay pick as they rambling wreck Georgia Tech. This is another FCS team coming up the ranks trying to demand respect from the big boys if you call the ACC except FSU big boys. The biggest advantage that Tech has going for them is the triple option that they run. The boys from Statesboro have seen plenty of option teams in the FCS so they won’t be overwhelmed like some FBS teams off of tough games might be without proper preparation for it. There is also a scheduling dynamic that plays into the Eagles hands as they get S Alabama next week while Tech has to travel to Blacksburg for revenge next week. Both these teams will run and run some more taking big chunks off the clock, making it harder to cover by three TD’s. In case you don’t remember the boys from Statesboro were crying the blues after barely losing to NCst by a point two weeks ago. Last year though it was the mighty Gators crying the Statesboro blues after losing to the Eagles in the swamp. E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!

  • CLEinMPLS

    Indiana -7

  • 1. @CMU +6.5 Syracuse. Villanova actually has a decent football program so I’m not off-put by Syra’s squeaker win against them. But the CMU win at Purdue was impressive. Line has moved 2.5-3 points toward CMU offshore (but not in Vegas — why is that PeteF?).

    2. @OleMiss -27 ULL. We know about Hugh Freeze’s offense’s capability. But holding Boise and Vandy to 13 and 23 points is pretty major and what you want to see when you’re laying 4 TDs.

    3. @UTEP -10.5 NMSt. UTEP is a team to watch. Check out their coach’s Wiki: Sean Kugler born/raised in Lockport NY where is dad was assistant fire chief. Undrafted, cut by Steelers after getting concussed, starting guard for the Sacramento Surge of the WLAF. Coached oline under Chris Petersen and Mike Tomlin; played for Andy Reid. I dunno, it’s speaking to me.

    4. @Vikes +3 Pats. Pats’ o-line looked shaky vs Dolphins and when the Pats’ oline is shaky Brady gets rattled. His completion rate and yards/attempt last week place him LAST in the league. Someone Sam “Brady no longer top 5 QB” Monson of PFF an apology. Vikes stomping of Rams pretty impressive. Also… THE OUTDOOR FOOTBALL IN MINNESOTA for the Vikings since 1981. 1981! The place will be rocking regardless of the Peterson business. Quick note on Peterson: I was raised in a house where corporal punishment was administered with the [frankly sadistic] additional edge of ‘bring me the paddle.’ Never once even had an impulse to spank the kids (although in fairness, my kids were pretty great). Still the reaction to Peterson strikes me as way overdone. I have outrage fatigue.

    5. All-play, @Colts -3.5 Eagles. Because Barnwell is never right on Andrew Luck and I enjoy his repeatedly acknowledging his mistake a couple weeks later… then going against Luck again.

    6. *** @Browns +6.5 Saints. I jumped in on the moneyline for this on Tuesday because I thought it was stealing money and didn’t want any Gordon reinstatement screwing with the +230 I got. The Hoyer from last year revealed himself in the second half and was not a fluke. That’s the real Hoyer. I know it was a year ago, but don’t you remember your reaction when he took over — “Wow, so that’s what an offense looks like. You mean it wasn’t shitty gameplanning or OCs or right tackles afterall?” He was a revelation but he is a timing-passer and line-of-scrimmage checker-outer. That’s what made him good last year; that’s what he didn’t get to work on in the g.d. QB Competition camp. Also: it was nice knowing you Ben Tate… unfortunate that you got injured again. It’s going to be hard for Tate to break back in if Crowell and West run the way they against Pittsburgh which I think they will against the Saints. Pettine’s Bills gave up 5 TDs to the Saints last year. You could say that he’s over matched against Payton-Brees. I choose to say that Pettine benefits from that loss and knows exactly what he wants to do differently on defense. Haden and Gilbert step up their games. Expect to see more Jim Leonhard in support support Kirksey’s challenge with Graham. Home opener will not disappoint. (Except for the insanely stupidly named, Homgrum-esque mascot, SWAGGER lumbering out on the field in search of a treat. I remind you Bronson was available and was always ready.)

    • AmplifiedEsq

      I was with you on the Peterson stuff being way overdone until I saw the pictures. After seeing the pictures I don’t see anyway he can avoid a ban like Rice’s.

  • Chris Schroeder

    Georgia – 5.5 @ South Carolina
    UCLA – 7.5 @ Texas
    Southern California – 18.5 @ Boston College
    All Play – Colts + 3.5 vs. Eagles

    Essay – Iowa State +10.5 @ Iowa

    This week the Clowns at the Hawkeyes in historic Kinnick Stadium. Location: Iowa City, Iowa. Game time forecast: 60 degrees & sunny. Princeton Review: 2014 # 2 top party school dethroned by Syracuse, fellas no trouble finding yourself a perfect piece of ass to take home to mother like no other then ‘Vodka Sam’. X-factor: Legendary coach Hayden Fry had the visitor locker room
    painted in all pink. Quoted from Fry, “one thing we didn’t paint black and gold was the stadium’s visiting locker room, which we painted pink. It’s a passive color and we hoped it would put our opponents in a passive mood. Also, pink is often found in girl’s bedrooms, and because of that consider it a sissy color.” Walking out feeling like a little school girl won’t win you many ball games. Enough with the jargon I suspect no fire works in 62nd meeting between these
    two ball clubs. Hawks will come out with a bang with a couple deep balls from the back QB. Then allow the Clowns to stick around due to the lack of a running game and turnovers that continues to almost haunt the Hawks. At the end of the day the clouds part and Iowa wins a close one; the clowns cover. Hawkeyes finish the day singing ‘In heaven there is no beer!’ Go HAWKS!!!

  • Tempted to make South Carolina +5.5 over Georgia my Pick of the Week, will confirm one way or another by 2PM. Anyway, at least give me the Gamecocks for one point. One of the hardest things for a college team to do is bounce back after a crushing loss, like SCar did last week against a tough East Carolina group after having gotten pounded by Texas A&M. Now they can get right back in the national title hunt with a win at home against Georgia, who’s been everyone’s darling for the last two weeks just for having knocked off a weak Clemson team. (Seriously, look how relatively weak SCar’s schedule is. They’re right back to legit SEC East contenders if they win today.) Georgia is coming off a bye, which I’m not sure helps college kids all that much. As bad as SCar looked against A&M, A&M could legitimately be one of the very best teams in the nation, and SCar still has 16 starters back from last year’s 11-2 top 5 finisher. Georgia is young, they won’t be sneaking up on the Gamecocks like A&M did as a 10 point underdog, and Columbia will be a very tough place for them to go in and get a win. 5.5 is a lot of points here.

    Also will ride with Concierge on Indiana -7 over Bowling Green for one point, and I like p_4’s East Carolina essay but want to save 4 for the NFL tomorrow.

    • Petefranklin

      I like S.C. as well buttt….just couldn’t.

    • East Carolina woodshedding Va. Tech right now makes me like SCar even more but I’ll keep it as a one-pointer, mainly because I won’t be able to watch.

      Back with 4 NFLs including Pick of the Week tomorrow.

      • NFL Sunday #RiseNGrind

        Pick of the Week: Bears +7 over Niners: The Niners are my pick to win the Super Bowl and I don’t play against them lightly but 7 points is a lot to give a team that 1) has as much talent as the Bears have; and 2) will be as desperate for a win this week as the Bears will be. Chicago got killed all week for having lost to the Bills — e.g., “Jay Cutler is the NFL’s Goldilocks” http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11505329/flem-file-chicago-bears-quarterback-jay-cutler-never-just-right — but it might be that the Bills aren’t so terrible (or at least had every reason not to be last week with 99% of the public expecting them to lose and lose big). In any event, the Bears should be coming in as focused as ever today. A six or three point SF win is really easy to see here, but mostly this is a play against the public in a prime-time game where the 7-point dog has a lot to play for and a lot of ability to move the ball.

        Will also take the Bengals -5.5 over Falcons (Cincy went into M&T Bank and beat the Ravens scoring 5 times in the first half. FGs, but still. Could be a huge day for them at home against a bad Falcons D.); and Bills -1 over Dolphins: (What a week for Bills fans.).

        Still not sure what to do with this All Play. Will check in tomorrow with that.

        • So I’m hearing that both of the Bears starting WRs might not play today. I guess just make the Bengals my pick of the week for the reasons stated above as well as those stated last week. Thanks.

        • Will take Colts -3.5 over Eagles for the All Play. The Colts can’t afford to fall two games behind the Texans in the division and need this one a lot worse than the Eagles do. Of course I don’t love giving up the hook here, but there are reasons why that hook was ever there in the first place. I feel better going with a public side tonight with so many big public favorites having failed to cover yesterday (Saints, Packers, Seahawks, Broncos, Niners).

  • PJD19

    Eagles +3.5 over Colts (All Play)
    Seattle -5.5 over SD
    Carolina -3 over Detroit
    Cinci -5.5 over Atl
    Indiana -7 over Bowling Green
    Buffalo +1 over Miami ESSAY

    The most raucous home crowd in the NFL tomorrow will be in Orchard Park, NY. Bills fans will be paying tribute to their late owner Ralph Wilson, Jim Kelly will be in attendance cancer free, the team was purchased this week by Buffalo loyalist Terry Pegula and the bills are playing their biggest rival in the home opener. Coupled with the Bills coming off a huge season opening road win and Ralph Wilson Stadium will be off its hinges. The most “Billsy” type thing to do in a game with this many expectations would be to get totally crushed and I get that as a long time Bills fan. I was totally ready to not touch this game until I saw the Fish as a major public favorite. Miami had a big home win against the Patriots last week and undoubtedly that’s why the public favors them tomorrow. However, Miami will be missing their entire linebacking core and DT Randy Starks has been in a boot all week with turf toe.

    Overall I just really feel the football gods will be in Buffalo’s corner tomorrow and it makes even more sense to me that the public is not.

    PS – Keep an eye out for a Sammy Watkins coming out party

  • Lucy Lawrence

    #1 East Carolina +10.5
    #2 Georgia Southern +20
    #3 Louisville -6.5
    #4 Indiana -7
    All Play: Eagles +3.5
    Essay: Seahawks -5.5

    I am going to be riding the Seahawks all year until they disappoint. I predict Phillip Rivers will be completely flustered and screaming at this receivers by halftime. I watched the SD/ARI MNF game and couldn’t believe how many big plays SD’s defense allowed (6+yrds/play). Not only will Russell take advantage of the big plays, he will turn those big plays into points. I hate to sound like a broken record but I love Seattle’s maturity as a whole and i dont know how many points they will have to lay at home or on the road before I lay off of them.

  • p_forever

    and away we go:

    e. carolina +10.5 va tech *** one of the immutable rules of college football is the let down week, and this is va. tech’s. but even without the letdown factor this game would be an issue for the hokies who, as usual, will be surviving with their
    defense, and not blowout wins. i just don’t see the hokies managing a double digit win over east carolina, which is a team that tends to keep games close against opponents more worthy than va. tech.

    penn st. -3 rutgers

    so. miss +48 alabama

    so. carolina +5.5 georgia

    maryland -3 w. va

    philly +3.5 indy

  • thatsfine

    USF +2 / NCST
    Kansas +16 / Duke
    ULL +27 / OleMiss
    WVU +3 / MD
    NIU -10 / UNLV (essay)
    I tend to roll with the dogs, but this is a nice number I can’t pass on. Even though they lost Jordan Lynch NIU is still a well-stocked and talented team. They’re probably feeling really good after beating Northwestern. UNLV… well, they were thumped by Arizona 58-13, then eeked out a home
    victory over Northern Colorado 13-12 turning the ball over 4 times at home. I don’t know much about NColo besides they went 1-11 in the FCS Big Sky conference last year, so that score doesn’t inspire much confidence in the Rebels’ win.

    MACtion fans circle your calendar for October 11, Central Michigan at NIU. I don’t know what else is going on that week, but if NIU and CMich keep playing well I think that one should warrant some consideration as the All-Play. Mandatory MACtion!

    Back for the all play later.

    • Petefranklin

      A missed late FG got the Rebels the win last week. They are pretty bad.

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Rutgers +3 (welcome to the Big Ten – it’s all downhill from here)
    Florida -17.5
    Washington -13.5
    Patriots -3 (line may have moved. as did the blood pressure of millions of fantasy addicts who drafted AP)
    Colts -3.5

    Essay pick: Missouri -9.5

    I seem to remember Mizzou being in the mix for the SEC title last year. They’re ranked #20. And they’re playing a commuter school at home. UCF has built a decent program, however I see the margin of victory for Missouri as higher than a TD and a field goal.

  • Capitalgg

    I’m wasting valuable Cheddar points. I wanted to play Baltimore last night and Cincinnati tonight, but got busy and never made it to post my plays. Oh so precious cheddar points! Why so do you evade me?

    So now I need to rally and find 5 additional games in this slate of absolute dreck this week that I like. Easier said than done, but here goes:

    All-play: Eagles +3 @ Colts: When in doubt, take the points. Especially when said team scores in bunches.

    1. Indiana -7 @ Bowling Green. Feels like a poor man’s Mizzou-Toledo.

    2. Georgia Southern +20 @ Georgia Tech. Playing a tip I heard somewhere that suggested GSU may win outright.

    3. Navy -10.5 @ Texas St. Riding Navy until they don’t cover. Keenan Reynolds is a witch.

    4. Ohio St -32 v. Kent St. Get healthy game for the Buckeyes. Starters play late so the score gets run up.

    Now if any of the above hits considering the wasted plays that simply went into my online account pocket not to be heard from again. I’m going to essay up at bounceback game for a team playing at home against a team making a 3 timezone trip. And the team staying home is a vastly superior side anyway. Stanford got beat in a rivalry game against USC last week, but don’t take too much from that. It appeared Stanford probably was the better team, but it was a weird game and the underdog always seems to win in that series. The Black Knights from Army get the unenviable task of taking on the freshly rehungered Cardinal on the Farm. Travel is tough. Being the inferior side is tough. Being on the wrong side of an angry physical team is brutal. Having all 3 against you adds up to a long day. So Stanford -28 to absolutely destroy the United States Military Academy (thank you for your service).

    • Capitalgg

      And considering the news of today, I’m quite thankful that the Executive Committee overruled NE-MIN for the All-Play.

  • jdoepke

    This is a tough week for your’s truly after 2 awful weeks to start the season. Need a big week and hopefully my first essay to hit. Here goes…

    Air Force – 11
    Virginia +6.5
    Cowboys +3.5
    Chargers +5.5
    Colts -3.5 (AP)
    Packers -8 (Essay)

    I hate Aaron Rodgers. Never liked him, still can’t stand him. If the Pack don’t cover this at home vs. a Jets team with a bad QB there is something wrong. Bill Simmons says never bet against elite QB’s at home with a line less than 8.5 so I’m taking that advice. I’m somewhat skeptical because it seems obvious, I hate betting favorites, and did I mention I hate Aaron Rodgers. I’m 0-2 thus far on essays and need a bounce back, this seems like the best choice. Pack 31 Jets 14. Let’s do this.

    Other very strong considerations and will bet elsewhere with better numbers:
    ECU +10.5
    Iowa St +12.5
    UCF + 10
    Chiefs +13 (hoping this gets up to 13.5 or 14 by kickoff)
    Bills pickem
    Jags +6

  • GRRustlers

    Week 3 Picks

    AP – Eagles (+3.5) over Colts – I was all prepared to take the Colts because of Andrew Luck but then I had this vision of D’qwell Jackson trying to pick up someone in the slot and I started laughing so hard that I burst into tears.

    Idaho (-2.5) over WMU – FOR THE LOVE OF WHATEVER DEITY YOU EMBRACE I AM PICKING IDAHO. PAY ATTENTION.

    Nebraska (-10) over Fresno – When did Fresno become garbage? It seems like just a few years ago they were trying to score a hundred against my Buffaloes…looking back maybe that was not an accomplishment. Makes Jon Embree blank stare…calls QB Sneak on 1st on 10.

    Patriots (-3) over Vikings – Sorry but the AP stuff is irrelevant to this game. Do not overreact to anything that NE does in week one.

    ODU (-18) over EMU – Eastern really showed me something last week in Florida. I think they have all the tools to be a regular fixture here.

    Essay Pick

    File this under the never overreact to anything in Week 1. Somewhere on this world wide web of computers was an article from this spring talking about how the Seahawks only got one primetime game at home this year. The reason being that they kick the shit out of everyone and people turn the TV off at halftime. Makes sense. I have to imagine that the Packers will be pretty happy to come home and Aaron Rodgers will be thrilled to take a look at that Jets secondary. The Jets are the perfect bad good team or good bad team. The problem is that when those teams play against good teams in their home opener with one of the best QBs in the game…bad things man…bad things man. Green Bay really big on Sunday.

    Packers (-8) over Jets

  • The Iron Sheik

    Maryland -3
    Georgia tech -20
    Nebraska -10
    Georgia -5.5
    Philly +3.5***
    New Orleans -6.5

    A chip off the new block. Chip Kelly has had the time to indoctrinate his offense over the past year and now it time to pay dividends. It fast and ferocious and quite frankly fun to watch with nick foles having something to prove with both luck and himself coming out of the 2012 draft. The eagles should be in good shape as long as they stay balanced and get lesean McCoy the ball enough times to keep Indy guessing. And so I can rack up some points to move up the board.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Nebraska -10 Fresno St.
    Indiana -7 BGS
    Lions + 3.5 Panthers
    Texans -3 Raiders
    (AP) Colts -3.5 Eagles
    *Pats -3 Vikes

    *For the virtual NFLPA suggestion box: Anger management/psychological support services, on-site. We know so many of these guys come in with baggage most of us can’t begin to understand, and mentors are great, but obviously there is a need for professionals. The owners and execs want these guys on the field, so invest in their well-being, from day one.

    So, the game – NE is smarting from last week’s big loss to a really good Miami team. Not good for the Patriots’ next opponent, historically. With AP, the Vikes might have come within a TD, but now Brady and the offense are going to be on that field all day long. The Vikings defense will be drained, and off Tom will go. Norv Turner has to rethink, revise, and then pray. Tempting to make this a pick of the year for an early boost, but not this way.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts week 3:

    Toledo +11
    Purdue +28
    Brown +6.5
    Packers -8***
    Falcons +5.5
    Colts -3.5

    ***This is a standard matchup between a contender vs. a pretender. The packers had some challenges in Seattle against a great team and a great defense, but nonetheless, they are a great team as well. This week, the offensive line will provide Rodgers with more time to pick apart a defense that is a little overrated. The most important area of this game will be the Jets’s inability to move the ball. This will allow Green Bay to control the game clock, and ultimately, control the game. Pack handle this one and get back on track to winning the NFC North.

    Good luck, everyone!!

    • DQuatts

      DQuatts is pulling a CFB SWITCHAROO…. Please remove Purdue and add Colorado +15.5 at home. Unless Peaker is suiting up at QB for the sun devils, they don’t stand a chance to cover….BUFFS! BUFFS! BUFFS!

  • Cincinnati – 11 vs. Toledo. More to come soon.

  • Its Only Money

    Bowling Green +7 v Indiana
    Louisville -6.5 @ Virginia
    Mississippi -27 v UL Lafayette
    Jacksonville +6 @ Washington
    All Play Indianapolis -3.5 v Philadelphia

    Essay:
    Cleveland +6.5 v New Orleans
    The first week of the NFL season provided us with a lot to ponder. The dogs did well and left us with a lot of unanswered questions. The Browns looked like two different teams in first first and second halves. The Saints also had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde episode last Sunday as well. While the Browns don’t really have the offensive weapons that the Falcons had to rip the Saints defense, I think that a steady ground game and if Hoyer can have a clean game again this week they can keep things close. Whatever the Browns did to simplify there D in the second half last week should definitely be the base package this week all game. The Saints have not been a very good road team over the last few years and I am thinking the trend continues. Looking back they are even worse ATS on the road. Maybe this is just a hopeful homer pick, I hope not.

  • Concierge

    Indiana -7 Essay
    CMU +6.5
    South Carolina +5.5
    Penn State -3
    Nebraska -10
    Chargers +5.5

    This is like stealing money. Indiana is such a better football team than Bowling Green it isn’t even funny. Bowling Green is over hyped off of last season where they won the MAC championship. Since then they have lost their starting QB in Matt Johnson and have forgot how to play defense. Western Kentucky racked up over 700 yards of total offense in route to an easy win in week 1. Well in steps James Khnapke at QB. He’s not terrible but the offense is just not the same. Oh by the way this is a team trying to learn a completely new offense this year. Dino Babers is known for explosive offense but right now they don’t have it going. Did I mention that defense isn’t very good? Well last week they lost 3 starters on that D so I think it will be even tougher to to slow down Kevin Wilson’s offense led by Tevin Coleman. Who’s Tevin Coleman? Well he’s avg 10.7 yds per carry this year and almost had a 1000 yards last year with a 7.3 avg. He will have a field day against a banged up D. Hoosiers roll at the Doyt!

    • technivore

      All play pick?

      • Concierge

        Indy -3.5 drop chargers. Thanks man. My bad

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Buffalo Bulls +35 vs. Baylor
    Toledo +11 at Cincinnati
    Ark St +16.5 at Miami
    South Alabama +14.5 vs. Miss. St.
    ALL PLAY: Eagles +3.5

    San Diego Chargers +5.5 – The Seahawks were so good in Week One that Tony Grossi, the all knower of football nothings, declared they would go 16-0. That’s good enough for me to go against them here. The Chargers play really god D and should be 1-0. I like the faces Phil Rivers makes and I like some of his throws, also. I’ll take the home team in a desperate spot to keep it within the number here and maybe win the game because it just makes (zero) sense, right?

  • swig

    1) Eagles -3.5 over COLTS, can’t wait to lose this one on the backdoor cover
    2) Texans -3 over RAIDERS
    3) Saints -6.5 over BROWNS
    4) Falcons +5.5 over BENGALS
    5) CINCI -11 over Toledo

    ESSAY) Cardinals pk over GIANTS

    After watching, and possibly overreacting to one game from both teams I like the Cardinals here. While I think the Chargers should have prevailed, the cards have a good defense and a competent offense, the Giants appear to have neither. All the comebacks last week thwarted my “obvious” halftime winner picks. I can not imagine this giants team mounting any sort of comeback if they fall behind early. I am not happy that most of my picks this week are the road team giving points, but I am sucked in. At least the Cards are not giving up points here.

  • ChuckKoz

    UCLA -7.5 (at Texas)
    Cardinals pk (at Giants)
    Lions +3 (at Panthers)
    49ers -7 (vs Bears)
    AP: Eagles +3.5 (at Colts)
    Essay: Washington -13.5 (vs Illinois)

    For the second time already this season, I go with the Huskies. They have not come close to covering so far, but nothing can fix that like a B1G school coming into town. UW’s offense struggled mightily in winning close in Hawaii. Then the defense struggled mightily at the home opener against EWU, but the offense was rolling along. Seems a matter of time before they figure it out and both come together. Couple that with only needing to win by a mere 2 TDs against an Illinois team that had to come back late against both W Kent and Young St (both at home) and it seems Illinois is ready to get smashed in their first road game. I like the Huskies 45-21.

  • Petefranklin

    Petefranklin play #1 north texas

    • Petefranklin

      Exact same line movement as mizzou last week and ed(ras) lost that one too

    • someone knew something with that line move and the final result.

  • FTCMikeD

    I’ll take Ravens -3 tonight as they rally around the emotional events of this week.

    • FTCMikeD

      Remainder of Picks:
      Ariz St -15.5 over @CU Boulder
      @Titans -3.5 over Cowboys
      Cardinals pk over @Giants
      AP: Eagles +3.5 over @Colts
      ****@Niners -7 over Bears****
      Bagging the essay this week due to my wife being induced tomorrow.

      • technivore

        I hope all goes well!

  • cwonder23

    BYU -18.5 vs Houston
    VA Tech -10.5 vs ECU
    Oklahoma -20.5 vs Tennessee
    Patriots -3 @ Vikings – Belichick has covered 63% of the time after a loss and I think St Louis played worse than MN played well.
    All Play: Eagles +3.5
    Essay: PSU -3 @ Rutgers
    Two words: Christian Hackenberg. Per my illustrious Cheddar Bay colleague, @cleinmpls, “He throws the best ball in college football.” Rutgers gets it’s first taste of B1G football and although the conference isn’t what it used to be, I think they get punched in the mouth. Not to mention, PSU’s bowl ban was lifted last week so they really have something to play for now. Both teams have covered B2B games and I see the classic B1G team pulling this one out by more than a FG. Good luck everyone.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Essay:

    Ravens -3 Really can’t imagine the Ravens losing two division games at home to start the season. I really think the Steelers are the worst team in the division this year, too bad the Browns struggled in the first half and didn’t finish the job in the second….sigh. Anywho Ravens in a rout tonight. Really this is a rewrite of last weeks essay which I guess is cheating in a way but I see value in betting against the Steelers, The Browns exposed them in the second half and Harbaugh is too good of a coach not to learn from the tape. This isn’t the steeler team we are used too, they are worse on defense (24 2nd half points to the Browns!) There offensive line is still a big question mark. I expect this game to look more like the 2nd half of last weeks game for the steelers, Big Ben is going to get pressured and he just doesn’t have the weapons to bail him out.

    The Ravens on the other hand added steve smith to Torrey Smith and Pitta. I expect Pierce to run all over the steelers after being benched in the first half last week. The Ravens Defense is still the best in the AFC North as Ozzie seems to always find a way to reload rather than rebuild.

    Bottom line Ravens are much better football team. They are at home and are facing an 0-2 start in the division both losses coming at home….Like I said no chance they don’t win big tonight.

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      PSU -3
      Louisville -6.5
      All Play: Eagles +3.5 You’re giving Chip Kelly extra pts. sure I’ll take them.
      Dallas +3.5 – Tony Romo isn’t as bad as he was last week and I think the Dallas def played better than expected.
      Cleveland +6.5 – Gonna ride the Browns all yr baby.

    • Nice pick.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Houston +18.5- I’m a big fan of cougars from Texas

    • CLEVTA

      Lets keep the ball rolling

      2. San Diego +5.5
      3. Giants PK (Essay)- BC all of you like the Cards. West Coast team travelling East for a 1pm EST game following a late late MNF game. Add Abraham to the laundry list of defenders who are our vs last year- Abraham, Dockett, Dansby, Washington to name a few. The whole world ripping on Eli and the Giants all week, these players hear and pay attention to these things. Cards were way up for an opener on MNF at home so lots of letdown here as well. I mean the Giants are not going to go 0-16. Love this spot here for Eli and the Giants

      4. Colts -3.5 All Play

      5. Indiana -7 bc Tevin Coleman

      6. South Carolina +5.5

  • Rob

    Did you know that teams playing home games on Thursday night coming off indefinite suspensions for their starting running back whom they then decide to cut are undefeated ATS?

    Ravens -3 for a cheddah point.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Yes, but only if the RB in question is a spitter. I do not think that is what the great Gaylord Perry had in mind when he wrote “Me and the Spitter”.

    • Rob

      Essay and All-Play:
      E-A-G-L-E-S +3.5

      Not a fisherman by any means; last time I baited my own hook was prior to a bachelor party in Put-In-Bay that I reluctantly took part in only because the bachelor was a dear friend of mine. Chartered fishing before a day of debauchery on the island, and unfortunately, I took the Dramamine too late and wound up puking starboard without an ounce of alcohol yet to be consumed. Despite this awful experience, I STILL LOVE THE HOOK. Recency bias has people questioning the Eagles after a near-straight-up loss vs. JAC in week 1. They still covered. Captain Andrew Luckbox has given me the ol’ screwjob too many times to count in his short time as a pro, and if this number was sitting at just +3 I’d probably leave it alone as the all-play. But THE HOOK, my friend, turns it into the essay pick.

    • Rob

      Virginia +6.5

    • Rob

      Finish the card with:
      NE -3
      BUF +1
      DET +3

  • technivore

    Steelers +3 over RAVENS

    • technivore

      Welp I may need to pull a Costanza and start going against myself. Maybe I’ll try that next week depending on how this week goes (not great so far).

      Eagles +3.5 over COLTS
      CLEVELAND +6.5 over New Orleans
      FLORIDA ATLANTIC pk over Tulsa
      Pitt -25.5 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

      Essay
      Seattle -5.5 over SAN DIEGO

      I don’t know about you guys, but I read Simmons and listen to his podcasts as long as he’s talking NFL or NBA. He’s a talented, funny, and extremely lucky guy who’s managed to parlay a schticky web column into a huge media presence. Everybody loves to make fun of him, and I know I often hate-read his stuff the way some people hate-watch ridiculous TV shows. He repeats himself constantly, his insights are barely beyond surface level, and he loves to see patterns that just aren’t there. The thing is, though, that I can’t seem to quit reading him and obviously there are MILLIONS of other people out there reading him as well.

      So Simmons and his buddy Sal have been all over the Chargers this offseason, talking them up as AFC sleepers. (And I just checked his column from today, which I promise I didn’t read before starting this essay, and yep he’s on the Chargers) I’m wondering, is it possible he’s singlehandedly moving their lines? Because based on the absolutely monstrous beatdown the Seahawks put on last week, I don’t see how they could possibly be favored by less than a touchdown. Even though it’s on the road, Seattle is staying within their time zone — which I do think is a big deal, but then again as a computer programmer I hate time zones with a white hot heat — and playing on long rest, against a Chargers team that just played on Monday night. And I didn’t watch the Chargers game, but if the Packers were completely helpless against the Seahawks, what is Phil Rivers going to do to better than Aaron Rodgers did?

      Anyway. I don’t know much about any of this stuff, but I saw a DOMINANT Seahawks team last Thursday, and they have a coach who’s known as one of the best at motivating his guys, so I don’t think they let off the gas this week. I’m just trying to figure out why that line isn’t higher and who knows, maybe I’ll be living off the Reverse Simmons all season.

      • Petefranklin

        There’s some strong trends that the seahawks have to break through as week 2 favorites on the rpad after winning the superbowl. Common sense screams hawks though.

  • zarathustra

    Steelers +3 for one point please.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    I will take the Ravens for the all play.
    R comes before S. I had to sing it to be certain.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      It appears that I was incorrect on my guess for the all play. Please forget that Ravens pick mb. My other picks are already in, I am going back to my “think less, pick faster” method.

  • zarathustra

    Any hint on the all-play?

    • it’s the Monday night game, eagles +3.5 at colts. will have updated post in a couple hours.

  • cwonder23

    I’ll take BYU -18.5 vs Houston for one Cheddar point please.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Miss State -14.5 over S Alabama
    Stanford -28 over Army
    ****Phil -3.5 over Indianapolis**** Essay

    The Eagles hurry up passing offense versus a team playing without their best pass rusher, Robert Mathis and with a phenomenally underperforming defensive line to take Mathis’ place. The Eagles will certainly be hurrying things between plays, but Nick Foles will not be in much of a hurry with the Colt’s anemic pass rush. In another example of how much quarterbacks are overrated, the better quarterback, Andrew Luck, one of the best actually, will have no chance in this game. Luck is a great leader and I am certain that he shall bring his team together for a heartrending half time pep talk, however pep talks are of little value when they start like this…. “Come on guys we are only down by 42 points with 30 minutes left to play. Who here cried when Ol’ Yeller died?”
    Foles back-up has taken his team to two AFC Championship games. Foles must be amazing to start ahead of that guy. Unless the Colts are going to bring Vontae Davis flying in off the corner, there is no way that they have any semblance of a pass rush against the Eagles. The hurry-up exposes the Eagles lack of depth and the Eagles simple run game should make it easy for them to wear out what is left of the Colts’ defense. It is difficult to believe that Philadelphia will only need 4 points to cover, they will be ahead by at least a touchdown very early on in their pre-game warm up.
    Luck, T. Y. Hilton and Vontae Davis are the only bright spots on a very weak Indy roster, the colts just do not have the horses to get the job done against the Eagles.

    North Texas -3.5 over Low Tech
    Tx A&M -32 over Rice

    • actovegin1armstrong

      For the all play please give me whichever team comes first alphabetically by official mascot name.

      • That’d put you on Colts -3.5. Ok with that?

        • actovegin1armstrong

          No, my essay would cancel that out. I will add a pick. Thank you mb.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Florida -17.5 over Kentucky

        • actovegin1armstrong

          mb, Do I get the Eagles +3.5?

          • if you want them. just let me know.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Already my essay

          • lol.. right right got it. i’ll be ok, sorry so scattered.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        That’s some method you’ve got, Acto.

  • chuckycrater

    As suggested below, put me down for North Texas -3.5 vs. Louisiana Tech for a single play.

    UNT probably left 20 points on the field against SMU between penalties and red-zone inefficiency and still won by 37. They ran for 245 yards and controlled the ball for over 36 minutes against what was supposedly the only part of SMU’s team that was any good, their front seven. I know SMU is a forest fire, but UNT came out and whipped them up and down the field.

    LA Tech won big against Lafayette last week, but it was a little fluky with a 99-yard TD run, a 78-yard TD pass, and a pick-six. They’re not as bad as last year (by the way, UNT beat them 28-13 in Ruston) but I don’t buy them and especially not with Skip Holtz on the sideline just waiting to suck.

    • chuckycrater

      Now that there’s an all play here are the rest of my picks. I’ve had these locked in since Monday. The college slate is tasty and I wish I could pick more games from it.

      ALL PLAY: Colts -3.5 vs. Eagles

      USF +2 vs. NC State (I’m telling you, we’re winning this game)
      West Virginia -3 vs. Maryland (terrible line)
      Arkansas +2 vs. Texas Tech (How is Tech favored? Has Vegas seen them play?)

      ESSAY: Louisville -6.5 vs. Virginia

      After watching UCLA play again, shouldn’t it be obvious that Virginia isn’t good? They caught the Bruins on the opening weekend with a cross-country flight and an early kickoff. It was a great situation and they didn’t capitalize against what looks like a wildly overrated opponent.

      Louisville thumped Miami and hammered their FCS cannon fodder last week. Bobby Petrino never loses to bad teams (only one loss to a team that finished below .500 in his college career) and he will absolutely punch in extra touchdowns late in games to make sure you cover. He’s a slimy bastard but he’ll make you money.

  • Petefranklin

    I cant read the line but put me down for Baylor -33.5 or less. Single play. And if I were you guys I wouldn’t tail petef. Look at the crap I had last week….vandy and baltimore were never in doubt and my totals were worse. Beware!

    • glad you signed in: what is going on w the UNT Latech line?

      • Petefranklin

        I have no clue. Im in detroit. Tune in espn 1100 vegas and listen at 10 am or at 2 pm pacific time and Im sure youwll find out about any moves.
        Chances are RAS released the game as a play.

      • Petefranklin

        RAS ON LA Tech @ 6.5
        I think he got buried last week….worse than me so no probl taking the added value like mizzou last week

        • who is RAS?

          • CLEVTA

            Right Angle Sports. A powerhouse service that releases college FB and BB plays. They are really the best at totals and move lines like crazy. Not sure about straight up picks tho

          • Petefranklin

            Right Angle Sports, they were good some years back but now are overpriced for a service. I receive their picks but do not follow sides. I think I tailed one total on opening night and lost small.
            You guys are probably on to something good here as he was on Toledo last week and gave me great value after I had already bet Mizzou. I was already maxed on the game so I passed up buying Mizzou down to 3.
            I think I told Hit the horns who had mizzou as an essay not to worry too much about the line move last week.
            Simple google search of RAS will clue you in, Start with his past performance page and ignore his in game tweets. Hell I get them almost live and never get a chance to bet them which I would most definitely do if I see them (in game) in time.

          • Rob

            They are responsible for one of the greatest tweets in gambling twitter history. https://twitter.com/RASPicks/status/441613133950373888

          • Petefranklin

            LMFAO

        • chuckycrater

          That Louisiana Tech-UNT game has obvious interest from the USF contingent in this contest. You have a couple of fondly-remembered USF assistants coaching for the Mean Green, and of course Skip Holtz on the other side.

          Neither one of us have any idea why the line went from 6.5 to 3.5, but we’re not complaining about it, either.

          • Petefranklin

            It moved when RAS released it

      • Petefranklin

        Rotation: 103
        Play: Louisiana Tech +6.5
        Rating: 1.00

        released at 10:45 AM if you want to check Vegas Insider line moves on the game

    • pete i’m sorry but LVH has baylor -35 this morning (which was the first chance i’ve had to lock down the late lines).
      sorry to say i think we need to go with the admin’s line lock.. i promise if the line were -31 this morning you’d have gotten that.
      still want baylor at -35? lmk.

      • Petefranklin

        No I don’t think so. Somehow I’ve managed to lose 15 straight bets and counting, all straights,and this one was bet right in the middle of that suckitude.
        BTW on a side note, if you’re in to looking at line moves, look at CG technologies on Sunday. It looks like there was a buyback on Buffalo @ +34 right? Wrong I accidentally hit the place bet twice and they moved the line to 34. I got my 2nd bet cancelled, but it looks like there was wise guy resistance @+34. There wasn’t.

        • Petefranklin

          The streak is OVER. Baylor 1st half under 35 winner winner I can still afford dinner. Now I need Baylor to keep it up for two in a row!

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