2014 CFB quick hits: SEC, Sun Belt.

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Ole Miss Black Bear is pleased with Treadwell.

Wrapping up our look at every freaking college football team today.  The methodology is simple:  review Vegasinsiders’ and Athlon’s blurb about each team, check out the returning starter composition, look at the head coach’s record against the spread, account for any players I may especially like or dislike, factor in gut feel.  At the end, place each team in a self-explanatory bucket:  “bet on,” “bet against,” or “avoid.”

I’m pretty curious to see how well I do with this so I’ll track the teams’ ATS records against the table all year.  I’ll also set up a special tracker for games where bet on plays bet against — because those are all slam dunk locks, right Kanick?

Yeah we’ll see. Here’s the rest of the previews:


SEC.

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SEC East
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Muschamp is must-see TV.

Florida — Will Muschamp.  I dunno man, if you can only pick one jpg for Muschamp to use in your post, what do you do?  You giggle.  I see the 4-8 and I see the Jeff Driskel injury,,, but I swear Jeff Driskel was not a good QB before the injury.  Muschamp right at .500 ATS.  New OC from Duke.  The hottest of hot seats.  Nope.
Bet against.

UGA — Mark Richt’s 3-9-1 ATS last year against an 8-5 season says it all.  Since 2003, Richt covers at 46%;  since 2008 42%.  I love pulling for UGA and I kinda like Richt in spite of himself.  But he gets less out of more than any other coach with more than ten years of tenure.  They can win (and probably will win) the SEC East, and Gurley is the best RB in CFB… I just don’t trust Richt to cover spreads.
Bet against.

Kentucky — Good news:  returning eight starters on both offense and defense along with the QB.  Bad news: that group was 2-10 and the wins were against Bama St and MiamiO.  Mark Stoops from the University of Mooney, he’s got an OC from Texas Tech who would know how to run the Air Raid.  Stoops should know how to do defense having been Arizona’s and UF’s DC for the last decade.  I guess Lexington is fired up with 35,000 for the spring game but I’m staying away until they show more.  (Would be terrifically fun if UK turned around their football.)
Bet against.

Florida010-10_Lauren_Kastner_jpg_775x525_q85

The SEC’s new Johnny Football?

Mizzou — Pinkel’s great team last year is gutted — Ealy, Sam, Franklin, Josey… ok Franklin isn’t much of loss given that recent “Ohio Mr. Football” Matty Mauk from Kenton is ready to step in.  Don’t know what happened with Dorial Green-Beckham (smells Gordon-esque though), but that’s a major loss too.  No one thought Mizzou would do much last year either.  Pinkel impressed.
Bet on.

SCAR — I loathe Spurrier (and boycott his cutesy acronym).  If he beats UF in the Swamp in November, there’s decent chance Muschamp suplexes him post game.  But the bastard has covered 55% since he came to Columbia.  Lost Clowney, Quarles and Shaw.  Only one sub .500 ATS season since 2005.  (5-6 ATS in 2007.)
Avoid.  (Objectively, you bet on SCAR all day long.  Personally, I just can’t.)

Tennessee — Butch Jones was .500 ATS at Cincy too.  No starting lineman on either side of the ball return.  Rebuild year.
Bet against.

shirtless-aj-mccarron

That Bengals QB corps shaping up amazing.

Vandy — I see their new coach comes from the Shaw-Harbaugh tree… but he also did two years under Solich.  Vandy was 100% James Franklin.  It just felt like his force of personality willed those teams to play over their heads.  In other words the exact opposite of Solich ball.
Bet against.

SEC East

Bama — Saban’s got to be so happy not to have to ball wash for that pant-load McCarron anymore.  I bet he hated him and his douchey tatts.  “Oh yeah, you’re real street AJ,” Saban muttered to himself in the locker room before the Sugar Bowl.  Ditto that for McCarron’s teammates; they hated him too.  All which makes for perfect balance as McCarron goes to the Bengals where precisely the same situation exists for players and coaches alike.  LOloloolol…  Anyway, back to Bama.  I really like Kenyan Drake; like him better than Yeldon and I like Yeldon.  Saban 57% cover rates since he came to Bama in 2007.
Bet on.

Auburn — Welp once I figured it out, I went 6-0 with Auburn last Cheddar.  Nick Marshall is a real QB who can throw but doesn’t need to because Malzahn’s offense so precision-tuned that defense are always on their heels.  Considering Marshall is in year two of running this offense.  Well… you know where I’m going.  War Damn Eagle.
Bet on.

Arkansas — No SEC wins last year.  The rebuild is just beginning.  Until there’s progress.
Bet against.

LSU — Nine players drafted.  Miles is actually a hair under .500 ATS in recent years.  Too many questions.
Avoid.

460x

Wallace + Treadwell + Freeze = Bet on.

Ole Miss — Loved Hugh Freeze at Arky St, loved him so far at Oxford.  His teams improve every year.  Like Bo Wallace a lot, I think this is his third year starting at QB.  Laquon Treadwell was the best WR I saw last year.  In all of CFB.  He’s a sophomore now.
Bet on.

MissySt — Dak Prescott is very legit.  Defense is always good and is good again.
Bet on.

TAMU — No defense again this year but this year without Manziel and Matthews and Evans.  I love you Kevin Sumlin.  Play some D.
Bet against.

SEC recap
Bet on:  Mizzou, Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, MissySt.
Bet against:  UF, UGA, UK, Tenn, Vandy, Ark, TAMU.
Avoid:  SCAR, LSU.

Sun Belt.

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Broadway will be dominating in the SBC this year.

Broadway will be dominating in the SBC this year.

ULL — Hudspeth plus Terrance Broadway.  Even including last year’s down ATS record, Hudspeth covers 57% since arriving at ULL.  Broadway is the SBC Player of the Year.
Bet on.

SALA — Really impressive debut for the six year old program from Mobile.  I think this team was a darling of Brosef’s and probably a couple other wiseguys last year.  Welp, we’re all wise now.  Same head coach has been in place since inception.  Eight starters back on defense and a new big ol’ 6’5″ QB.  They play at venerable and quaint Ladd Peebles — home of two post-season favorite events:  the Senior Bowl and Go-Daddy Bowl.
Bet on.

ArkySt — They’re on their fourth head coach in four years.  (Freeze, Malzahn, Harsin.)  It’s got to take a toll.  New coach Blake Anderson was Larry Fedora’s OC both at USM and UNC.  A UNC offense figures to thrive in the Sun Belt.  There’s still talent here.
Bet on.

ULM — I like Todd Berry and most everything about ULM.  CAMO OUT!

Not too happy to lose Kolton Browning though.  It looks like ULM will start a QB who did two years at ColoSt, then a year at NCST, before landing in Monroe.  I dunno man… I think locking down the NC State bachelor’s degree would’ve been the go to move but chase the dream.  Berry is .500 ATS since coming to Monroe in 2011.
Bet on.

Troy — Sun might just be setting on Larry Blakeney’s 24 year career at Troy.  Three straight non winning seasons.  No QB.  Lots of juco transfers.  Dismal 14-22 ATS in the last three years.  Still.. Blakeney.
Avoid.

GSU — Still say Jeff Jagodzinski’s rehabilitation starts as OC at Georgia State and culminates with his taking the UMass job and annually throttling the shit out of BC.  Note last year’s ATS record.
Bet on.

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Behold the Kibbie Dome.

Idaho — Here come the newbies.  The Vandals join the SBC coming off a very not good season last year.  They are also not bowl eligible due to low APR scores.  But they do play in the Kibbie Dome so the recruiting should improv… oh wait a sec.
Bet against.

Texas State — Franchione is .500 ATS since taking over Texas State.  D-line lost all four starters and defense lost their DC.  They have a returning starting QB.  Their HC coached at Bama and TAMU within the last ten years for crissakes.
Avoid.

GaSouthern — New coach (Monken moved on to Army.), new offense.  I think Monken was special, Jerick McKinnon was special.  Without them…
Bet against.

AppySt — Another team jumps up to FBS.  Good FCS program but will face same sorts of depth challenges that GSU saw last year.  Simply filling their scholarship allotment is a big one.
Bet against.

NMexSt — Athlon rates NMSt #128 out of 128.  8-15 ATS last two years.  Their best player left early for the NFL.  23 freshman signees.
Bet against.

SBC recap
Bet on:  ULL, SALA, ArkySt, ULM, GaSt.
Bet against:  Idaho, GaSouthern, AppySt, NMSt.
Avoid:  Troy.

Here’s what The List looks like.
  • actovegin1armstrong

    “SCAR — I loathe Spurrier (and boycott his cutesy acronym).”
    Completely with you on this jk, however I prefer to call him Steve Spurious.
    Sorry to hijack your rickshaw of thought, but….
    This year I had Connor Shaw and Dustin Vaughn as two of the top QB’s coming out of college, but they may be out of the league before they get a chance. Was I really that wrong with my appraisal of these two kids?

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