2014 Cheddar Bay headcount.


BGSU’s new weapon.

I’ve been getting some familiar feelings of late.

  • Can’t wait to profit from Matt Johnson and Dino Babers (Garropolo’s coach), and GEHRIG DIETER.
  • Need to get out in front of the Wake Forest betting lines before the squares catch on to Dave Clawson.
  • B1G storylines I’m not seeing enough of include:
    • James Franklin to Penn State,
    • Gary Andersen, continued upward trajectory,
    • Connor Cook.
  • I’m up on Bucs, Bears, Colts, Chargers; down on Skins, Niners, Pats, Rams and ready to invest along these lines.
  • Nick Marshall is legit.
  • Bettors trying to capitalize on holes in Andrew Luck will lose.
  • Oklahoma.

And of course there’s the Browns.  Our Vegas correspondent reports an unsettling development:

… money is pouring in on the Browns under 6.5 wins this week. Same with the panthers under 8.5. The browns went from -150 on the over 6.5 to -130.

Good.  Get that market level.  My only question is can I get +500 if I tease the Browns up to ten wins?

If you’re having the same sorts of feelings and observations, then it’s time to start thinking about testing your football savoir faire in the original Reality Football Pickstravaganza.  If you’re not familiar with the concept, Cheddar Bay founder and reining champion, ClevelandFrowns offered this eloquent overview a couple years ago.

Reality football in its most basic form is what some folks would call a pool or a pick-em league. When done correctly, reality football is all the fun of fantasy football plus much more, with none of fantasy’s meaningless restrictions and useless distractions. Reality football means never having to worry about where a team’s playbook happened to end up at the end of a scoring drive, or whose number was called for a score. In reality football, any player can be yours, or not, every week. Injuries can’t wreck reality football seasons, nor can the vagaries of a randomly determined draft order. And reality football means only watching the games you want to watch.

Reality football is a chess match every week. Fantasy football is spinning a roulette wheel once at the beginning of the season, with a few even more meaningless roulette spins as the season wears on, depending on how crappy your first spin went (“Do I start Roy Helu or Deion Branch at flex this week?” /chews own face off). One is no more “wagering” than the other, yet the NFL itself relentlessly promotes fantasy — which requires exponentially less skill and analytical ability than the alternative — because the NFL wants you to be stupid so it can control you((Emphasis mine.))

And if all that’s not enough, the Cheddar Bay Reality Football Pickstravaganza is only the most phenomenal and best reality football competition in the world.

Are we ready?

I shall have an official sign-up up within two weeks.  Rules figure to be largely unchanged from last year’s which can be found here.  But I am curious on who all will be joining this year.  We had around 50 last year.

So let me get a non-binding headcount:  give me an ‘in or out’ in the comments below as well as the sleeper storylines you’re sitting on for max early-season profit.

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    I’m in. Who needs dignity or a reason to pay attention to football after mid-October?

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    I’m in and ready for a return to the playoffs this year. Looking forward to it fellas.

  • chuckycrater

    Hey, I found my login credentials. I already DMed kanick to say I’m in.

    Not sure who I’m in or out on. Making a big reduction in my NFL watching this year so I might be picking the minimum each week there.

  • Pretty sure I’ll simply be donating to the winner, but I’m in anyway because I’m charitable like that.

  • thatsfine


  • squeekycleen


  • swig

    In, sounds fun.

  • In, obviously.

  • FTCMikeD

    I’m in.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Hi kids, may I play too?


    Last year I kicked off the cheddar season taking UTSA and I know a few others pegged them throughout the season as scrappy dogs. Well I’d like to annoint UTSA as the team Kanick is looking to follow and adopt. They went 8-4 ATS following a 7-3 ATS campaign in 2012 including a very nice 6-2 ATS record the last 2 seasons as favs. The roadrunners ended last season winning 5 straight games. Larry Coker is their coach and essentially this is a brand new program in D1 the last few years. Coker’s team returns an astonishing 38 seniors and returns at least 19 total starters. They do have to replace essentially the only QB they have ever known but he was just average anyway. There is a nice JC transfer who is a bit more pass happy than the starter last year. The good news is the QB and TE are the only guys who are gone and their o-line returns all 5 which happen to be all seniors. Amazing.The defense is ok and more of a bend but dont break. Their non-conf sked is tough but I expect them to win Conf USA. Keep an eye on the roadrunners

  • i think i am going to like our cheddar comrade – Jeff Rich’s – new site. it’s College Football Roundtable and they knock it out of the park with a ‘Which Game of Thrones House is your SEC School‘ piece that is perfectly nuts on.

    if you don’t think LSU are the Dothraki, then you haven’t been paying attention.

    i really liked jeff’s pieces in the kanick mock (and i even liked that he had to bag his NFCW preview so i could jump on it). looking forward to seeing what his site turns into. word to the wise: jeff was a strong PAC12 analyst, arizona schools in particular. pretty tuned into on the cardinals also. Cheddar’s mission is the communal sharing of found wisdom; profit from our satellite contributors.

  • Capitalgg

    Haven’t put the time into the cawledge foosball yet, but here is what I like/dislike in the League…

    Lions: NFCN’s most talented team may finally play with a little discipline
    Colts: Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck.
    Pats: Defense should play faster, no one still in AFCE to test them.
    Titans: Quietly been building something nice, Texans still no QB, Jags still Jags.

    Bills: Makings of historically bad. And we have their pick. 🙂
    Panthers: Feels like season that could spin off the rails.
    Cowboys: Bad defense not getting healthier/better. Injury to Romo = Weeden-time.
    Packers: Continue to be average, rest of NFCN catching up (see Lions)
    Ravens: Someone has to finish last. Football gods punishment for Ray Rice.

    Other less certain downs: Cards, Cowboys, Dolphins, Miners, Steelers

    • everything is going to shit with the bills. even their ill-advised second round pick is playing down to his do-not-want rating.

      • mgbode

        yeah, I don’t know what they were thinking with Kouandjio. they obviously were not reading the KRM and your draft posts.

        the only thing I keep coming back to on the Bills is that EJ Manuel can be good (if he can stay healthy) and they do have Watkins + Spiller. It just goes against everything I trust in football to have an OL that poor and the fact they have neglected it anyway for so long. But, that division stinks and Manuel is likely the 2nd best QB in it. That could be enough to squeak out 6 or 7 wins.

  • Matt Borcas


  • CleveLandThatILove

    Good clean fun, always a yes.

  • oxr

    Wouldn’t miss it for the world.

  • bupalos

    IN FOR THE WIN. The only difference is that this year, I’m up on the Browns.

    • Petefranklin

      I found 7/1 on the Browns to win the division from my recliner last night. This was a line move in the right direction for me as all I had seen pretty much everywhere in Vegas was 6/1 all summer, so I bit! Hopefully I don’t swallow the sinker on this one. Probably some retarded Steeler money came in to Will Hill to bump us lower.
      I think I may hit the season win over after the suspension is announced, as I’m pretty sure that the early $$$ on the Browns over 6.5 was from some professionals portfolios and not line manipulation.
      I am basing my Browns bets on the opinions voiced here, not too much on my own. There are a ton of question marks that have yet to be determined IMO(top 3 defense?), but you guys are pretty errr super sharp when it comes to Browns matters and I am respecting those opinions with my wallet.

  • cwonder23


  • trashycamaro



    FYI Connor Cook has been getting major Heisman sleeper love ever since the night of the Rose Bowl so no need to worry he’s getting the attention. I personally don’t think D’antonio’s offensive system and philosophy is conducive to put up the needed the stats to win the award but he should be a top 5-8 finalist. If you want to find a sleeper for the Heisman, I have a formula created last year helped me list Nick Marshall as my top sleeper here- http://jimkanicki.wordpress.com/2013/08/28/cbay-open-thread-1-uga-at-clemson/comment-page-1/#comments. . Winston was already getting lots of Heisman hype so I did not include him
    but the formula fit him as well. Essentially find a first year full time starter at QB, must have some sort of dual pass/run capabilities, play in a high powered spread offense capable of putting up lots of points and must be on a team in a BCS conference that has a chance to finish in the top 25 by season’s end. I haven’t had a chance to go thru the list this pre season but will come back this morning when I have time.

    • CLEVTA

      Quick filter gives me Trevor Knight, Cole Stoudt, Cyler Miles as the top Heisman sleepers.

      • trevor knight was 1000x better than blake bell, eh? damn, tripped hard on that one last year.

    • maxfnmloans

      dont sleep on Devin Gardner. If the line can keep from getting him killed, that is. I couldn’t even find odds on him at Bovada

      • CLEVTA

        eh there’s a reason u cant find odds on Gardner. Team stinks and he takes way way too many sacks



  • zarathustra

    I’m in. I like either the pats or ravens to come out of the afc and bears, niners, eagles, or saints out of the nfc.
    I agree about Clawson and Franklin, but experience tells me that it won’t be until year two that they start to leave their mark. Along those lines I will be taking a look at Washington st. and Purdue and of course Arkansas (just kidding.) Agree about Andersen and Connor Cook and because of them I don’t think the buckeyes are legit national championship contenders.

    • yes, wazzu. they showed signs of turning the corner late last year (epic gildan meltdown notwithstanding.).

  • technivore

    Here we go. In.

  • AlvaroEspinoza10


  • ChuckKoz

    all i do is In

  • Jim Conboy

    Would love to join, but being Canadian I just can’t work up enough interest in the college game. I will just continue to follow the posts as always.

    • we need to adopt you a team and go from there. optimally, we’ll find a 2013 auburn or 2012 wku for you to fall in love with. i’d steer you toward oklahoma for this year but, damn, that fight song… penn state might be fun to watch this year.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      If it matters, you only would need to throw in one college pick per week. All are welcome, that is the beauty of it.

    • CLTIL is right to point that out.
      I should add that when I first started playing this, I expected to focus on NFL and just hope for the best in college. What I found was that college is a lot of fun to watch and also provides more opportunities to find edges. I did a full 180.

  • Peter Markos

    Cheddar Bay is the reason I lift all of those weights…

  • Nick

    In. Up on Bucs, Jags, Titans, Chargers. Down on Skins, Carolina, ‘Boys, Cinci. Mich St to win everything. W. Michigan early and often.

    • this here is the shizzle.

    • Petefranklin

      Is EMU going to be garbage again this year? You seem to know those teams above the state boundary line.

      • Nick

        I meant Central Michigan, not Western. I don’t know anything about EMU. But for Mich St and CMU: love the returning talent from last year and the way they finished the season.

        • technivore

          I was gonna say. I only just started my #maction research today but I really like what I’m reading about CMU.

          • maxfnmloans

            I have a cousin who went to school in Mount Pleasant. he wont shut up about their team this year, fwiw

      • “is EMU going to be garbage?”

        But they are installing grey field turf at Rynearson Field and calling it ‘The Factory.’ Here’s a pic of the several dozen people excited about all this.

  • Petefranklin

    I’m going to concentrate on totals this year. Hopefully some form of totals will be introduced in to Cheddar this year, at least the Monday night and all play. Theres a reason that the limits on totals are substantially reduced by the guys who babysit the lines(vegas bookmakers). The totals are much more beatable than spreads.I would love to see them incorporated in some way.

  • HitTheHorns


  • Capitalgg

    In. In. In. In. In. In. In. In. In. In. In. In.

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