Draft loose ends.
I’m hot-taked out. Here’s some things I think will happen tonight.
Browns take Evans.
That diagram I did Monday failed to take into account that Evans’ chest is at least two inches broader so his wingspan is at least four inches wider than Watkins’. I know some think I’m simplistic in my analysis, but in this case I think anyone breaking down film to see if Evans gets low enough in his cuts has lost sight of the forest in their tree research. 35+ arms for WRs just don’t happen. It’s a freak of nature and Evans should be talked about as a generational prospect in the same way Clowney and Robinson are.
Even if you believe Khalil Mack to be a singular talent, ILB is the new RB. You don’t draft them high. Thinking you’ll just move him over to OLB? Thinking you’ll convert your top five pick to a new position? Two words: Dion Jordan. Nope. Khalil Mack is a fine player. But his place in the top five is entirely a media creation. I see him falling out of the top ten.
The OSU effect.
Don’t think it’s a coincidence that Mack and Watkins had their best games against Ohio State. It’s skewed the popular ratings. Doesn’t matter that Mack was facing off against a first-time starting RT or that Sammy Watkins won’t find NFL DCs will frozen and helpless in the face of the mystery that is the Bubble Screen. Nope, they did good against the Bucks… thus, top five pick. I am exaggerating a little bit here but the point is on mark. I’m completely baffled by the Mack luv (particularly for the Browns) and Watkins was supposed to be the Clemson stud last year but it was DeAndre Hopkins who stole the show against LSU in the 2012 ChikFilA Bowl.
Mack is Mingo all over again.
I’m reaching a boiling point with idiot beat writers entertaining the Mack-to-Browns thing as not just possible, but likely. Did we not just draft a top ten player in a position of strength last year? Why would we do it again this year? Here’s hoping the Berea sees smiling Barky Mingo every day in the weight room and every glimpse of smiling Mingo is reminder not to piss away a top 10 pick on a player who plays a position that is filled. The position of OLB is filled. There will be no draft day deals for Paul Kruger. Jabaal Sheard is so much better than Mingo that you really have to sign Sheard. Mingo … well you spent the sixth overall on him twelve months ago, can’t dump him yet. So just where the fuck is Mack going to play and if you say ILB, you are incorrect:
- Don’t take pure ILBs at #4;
- Damn sure don’t take ILB conversion projects at #4;
- Dion Jordan.
The view from here is that Farmer is feeding Mack misinformation to local saps. Until Farmer does something dumb, we’ll assume he’s not dumb.
So what do we do at ILB?
Fuller is first cornerback taken.
His combine numbers are on par with Gilbert-Dennard. Size too. The other two don’t react to the ball while it’s in the air like Fuller. Can’t find a d-back more willing to sell out to blow up run plays. He’s first on my board at CB and I’m not even that smart or being paid. NFL guys are smarter and do it full time. I bet one of them figures this out and Fuller is the first CB gone.1
Niners move up.
Random Captain Obvious take. They have two seconds and three thirds. Fun fact: by the value chart, the Niners six picks this equal our #4. (I would pass on that offer.)
Fallacy: this is NOT a deep WR crop.
For all the great WRs in this draft there are a whole lot I wouldn’t take (or wouldn’t take where they’re being slotted): Watkins (not at #4), Cooks, Lee (not in first), Benjamin, Latimer (not in first), Adams (not in second), Landry, Ellington. That’s eight WRs who I see as over-valued. And if you’re looking for the 35″ arm guy who runs a 4.5… there’s only one of him.
Raiders take one of the tackles.
Another bit of silliness has the Raiders taking Mack or Watkins or Evans. No. They just lost their LT in free agency. They whiffed in the replacement signing of Rodger Saffold. I would guess that someone came in and said to McKenzie: “WTF are you doing guaranteeing 21M to a UFA LT when we know that Robinson, Matthews, or Lewan can be had at rookie scale?” One of the three LT will be there at #5 and the Raiders take him. No brainer.
Bengals take a QB in first round.
The only thing stopping the Bengals from the Super Bowl is an average QB. Dalton is not a leader (obvious from last year’s Hard Knocks) and his playoff game was one for the ages. In another miss by national media, Bengals have a much greater need at QB than the Browns do. I would take Carr if I’m them; they will take Bridgewater.
Browns do not take QB in first round. ASJ is alt pick at 26.
Evans (or Robinson). I’m definitely doubting that Fuller will last to #26 and I find a trade-up for Fuller unlikely. Can’t see them reaching for any under-sized players (eg, Verrette at CB or Mosley/Shazier at ILB). If Fuller is gone, I’ll make my fall-back pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Additional RZ target and an acknowledgement that West Coast playa Jordan Cameron doesn’t want to play in Cleveland (which he seems to not).
MKC goes 0-18.
MKC jumped the draft-hype shark with her release of six ‘scenarios‘ for the Browns at 6, 26, 35. That’s eighteen names. I think she’ll go 0-18.
- Watkins-Carr-Roby. This is possible if Evans is taken before four.
- Manziel-Fuller-Cooks. Just stop.
- Carr-Beckham-Verrett. Can’t see Carr at four; Beckham probably gone in top 15, and MKC must not realize that the Browns have the shortest d-back field in the league that features taller wideouts. I don’t care how fast or gutty he is: he can’t cover the Evans-type of WR.
- Mack-Bridgewater-Roberson. The take-away-my-shoelaces scenario.
- Robinson-Carr-Verrett. The most plausible.
- Bortles-Fuller-JoMatthews. Fuller and Matthews well off board by 26, 25.
Six scenarios and she fails to select Mike Evans. It’s going to be a hoot when he’s the pick.
But 0-18 is already surpassed …
… in foolishness by this remarkable statement by MKC on Tuesday.
Even if Robinson is the next Walter Jones, I wouldn’t take a tackle at No. 4.
She goes on to explain that, “Having seven-time Pro Bowler Joe Thomas has been great for the Browns, but they still win four or five games every year.” I’m mean,,, I get her point and it’s the stale gotta-have-a-QB thing but… bad example. Yes please to 9x Pro Bowl, 4x All Pro, HOF left tackles.
About the $100,000 QB report…
I bet it noted that only one QBs under six feet tall has had any success in the last 20 years.
Someone hookup a Skype webcam and live stream this please.
- And I’m not down on Gilbert or Dennard. [back]