Draft loose ends.

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“I got your separation right here.”

I’m hot-taked out.  Here’s some things I think will happen tonight.

Browns take Evans.

That diagram I did Monday failed to take into account that Evans’ chest is at least two inches broader so his wingspan is at least four inches wider than Watkins’.  I know some think I’m simplistic in my analysis, but in this case I think anyone breaking down film to see if Evans gets low enough in his cuts has lost sight of the forest in their tree research.  35+ arms for WRs just don’t happen.  It’s a freak of nature and Evans should be talked about as a generational prospect in the same way Clowney and Robinson are.

Mack slides.

Even if you believe Khalil Mack to be a singular talent, ILB is the new RB.  You don’t draft them high.  Thinking you’ll just move him over to OLB?  Thinking you’ll convert your top five pick to a new position?  Two words:  Dion Jordan.  Nope.  Khalil Mack is a fine player.  But his place in the top five is entirely a media creation.  I see him falling out of the top ten.

khalil-mack

#68 is not Jack Mewhort. That’s RS Sophomore RT Taylor Decker in his first-ever start. Minor detail that may have contributed to Mack’s big day.

The OSU effect.

Don’t think it’s a coincidence that Mack and Watkins had their best games against Ohio State.  It’s skewed the popular ratings.  Doesn’t matter that Mack was facing off against a first-time starting RT or that Sammy Watkins won’t find NFL DCs will frozen and helpless in the face of the mystery that is the Bubble Screen.  Nope, they did good against the Bucks… thus, top five pick.  I am exaggerating a little bit here but the point is on mark.  I’m completely baffled by the Mack luv (particularly for the Browns) and Watkins was supposed to be the Clemson stud last year but it was DeAndre Hopkins who stole the show against LSU in the 2012 ChikFilA Bowl.

Mack is Mingo all over again.

I’m reaching a boiling point with idiot beat writers entertaining the Mack-to-Browns thing as not just possible, but likely.  Did we not just draft a top ten player in a position of strength last year?  Why would we do it again this year?  Here’s hoping the Berea sees smiling Barky Mingo every day in the weight room and every glimpse of smiling Mingo is reminder not to piss away a top 10 pick on a player who plays a position that is filled.  The position of OLB is filled.  There will be no draft day deals for Paul Kruger.  Jabaal Sheard is so much better than Mingo that you really have to sign Sheard.  Mingo … well you spent the sixth overall on him twelve months ago, can’t dump him yet.  So just where the fuck is Mack going to play and if you say ILB, you are incorrect:

  1. Don’t take pure ILBs at #4;
  2. Damn sure don’t take ILB conversion projects at #4;
  3. Dion Jordan.

The view from here is that Farmer is feeding Mack misinformation to local saps.  Until Farmer does something dumb, we’ll assume he’s not dumb.

So what do we do at ILB?

Screen Shot 2014-05-08 at 3.03.06 PM

We go all-Auburn at ILB with Dansby and Groves.  Here’s another vote for.

Fuller is first cornerback taken.

His combine numbers are on par with Gilbert-Dennard.  Size too.  The other two don’t react to the ball while it’s in the air like Fuller.  Can’t find a d-back more willing to sell out to blow up run plays.  He’s first on my board at CB and I’m not even that smart or being paid.  NFL guys are smarter and do it full time.  I bet one of them figures this out and Fuller is the first CB gone.1

hi-res-185942967-mike-evans-of-the-texas-a-m-aggies-has-the-ball-go-off_crop_exact

Niners will overpay for this.

Niners move up.

Random Captain Obvious take.  They have two seconds and three thirds.  Fun fact:  by the value chart, the Niners six picks this equal our #4.  (I would pass on that offer.)

Fallacy:  this is NOT a deep WR crop.

For all the great WRs in this draft there are a whole lot I wouldn’t take (or wouldn’t take where they’re being slotted):  Watkins (not at #4), Cooks, Lee (not in first), Benjamin, Latimer (not in first), Adams (not in second), Landry, Ellington.  That’s eight WRs who I see as over-valued.  And if you’re looking for the 35″ arm guy who runs a 4.5… there’s only one of him.

Raiders take one of the tackles.

Another bit of silliness has the Raiders taking Mack or Watkins or Evans.  No.  They just lost their LT in free agency.  They whiffed in the replacement signing of Rodger Saffold.  I would guess that someone came in and said to McKenzie:  “WTF are you doing guaranteeing 21M to a UFA LT when we know that Robinson, Matthews, or Lewan can be had at rookie scale?”  One of the three LT will be there at #5 and the Raiders take him.  No brainer.

andy-dalton-fumbles

Which Ohio team REALLY has the QB problem?

Bengals take a QB in first round.

The only thing stopping the Bengals from the Super Bowl is an average QB.  Dalton is not a leader (obvious from last year’s Hard Knocks) and his playoff game was one for the ages.  In another miss by national media, Bengals have a much greater need at QB than the Browns do.  I would take Carr if I’m them; they will take Bridgewater.

Browns do not take QB in first round.  ASJ is alt pick at 26.

Evans (or Robinson).  I’m definitely doubting that Fuller will last to #26 and I find a trade-up for Fuller unlikely.  Can’t see them reaching for any under-sized players (eg, Verrette at CB or Mosley/Shazier at ILB).  If Fuller is gone, I’ll make my fall-back pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins.  Additional RZ target and an acknowledgement that West Coast playa Jordan Cameron doesn’t want to play in Cleveland (which he seems to not).

MKC goes 0-18.

MKC jumped the draft-hype shark with her release of six ‘scenarios‘ for the Browns at 6, 26, 35.  That’s eighteen names.  I think she’ll go 0-18.

  1. Watkins-Carr-Roby.  This is possible if Evans is taken before four.
  2. Manziel-Fuller-Cooks.  Just stop.
  3. Carr-Beckham-Verrett.  Can’t see Carr at four; Beckham probably gone in top 15, and MKC must not realize that the Browns have the shortest d-back field in the league that features taller wideouts.  I don’t care how fast or gutty he is:  he can’t cover the Evans-type of WR.
  4. Mack-Bridgewater-Roberson.  The take-away-my-shoelaces scenario.
  5. Robinson-Carr-Verrett.  The most plausible.
  6. Bortles-Fuller-JoMatthews.  Fuller and Matthews well off board by 26, 25.
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Sorry Walter. You won’t be drafted onto MKC’s Browns.

Six scenarios and she fails to select Mike Evans.  It’s going to be a hoot when he’s the pick.

But 0-18 is already surpassed …

… in foolishness by this remarkable statement by MKC on Tuesday.

Even if Robinson is the next Walter Jones, I wouldn’t take a tackle at No. 4.

She goes on to explain that, “Having seven-time Pro Bowler Joe Thomas has been great for the Browns, but they still win four or five games every year.”  I’m mean,,, I get her point and it’s the stale gotta-have-a-QB thing but… bad example.  Yes please to 9x Pro Bowl, 4x All Pro, HOF left tackles.

About the $100,000 QB report…

I bet it noted that only one QBs under six feet tall has had any success in the last 20 years.

Map Room:  I will be there in spirit.

Someone hookup a Skype webcam and live stream this please.

  1. And I’m not down on Gilbert or Dennard. [back]

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  • jpftribe
  • jpftribe

    Opinions on Sua Filo with the next pick?

    • prefer jordan matthews but am settling into a comfy ‘in ray we trust’ mode.

      • Nick

        Thanks Buff for the top 10 pick next year. wow

    • btw, bortles at #3 was pretty good validation of your bortles assessment in the KRM, well done.
      not sure i love kelvin benjamin for your panthers. if they wanted to go the high ceiling athletic specimen route, i think martavius bryant wouldve been more interesting (and local).

      • jpftribe

        Thanks, good analysis, wrong team, LOL.

        Texans are in a tough spot. They can’t take Carr. Will either have to reach now, or take a big chance in round three. Frankly, I’d rather be working out Vince Young and Thigpen than starting Ryan Fitzpatrick, yikes.

        It’s interesting that there were rumors on NFL Network that the Browns were trying to move up to take Lee at around 25. If they do the Vikings trade with Seattle at 32, which they could have easily done, Bridgewater is waiting for the Texans. Gotta believe Farmer likes a couple of guys with the next pick. Or maybe they move up again later in round 2.

        I get the big target for Cam Newton thing with Benjamin, but I thought Lee would be a slam dunk for them with him still on the board. Cam’s going to be running for his life with 60% of the o-line gone. Maybe they like a sleeper pick in late rounds.

        • bupalos

          Why can’t they take Carr? I mean, besides the fact that he is an unholy abomination?

          On paper the Vikes punked the Texans just about as bad as we punked the Vikes, but they had to know that was coming and didn’t try to do anything about it, so I wonder if they wanted Bridgewater at all. They must like someone from the second tier and probably have to pull the trigger now.

  • bupalos

    Sooooo….whatcha tthink? We’ve got the bills 15 #1 and gilbert. That’s pretty much enough right there. Oh then there’s that 22 pick. I’m a little disconcerted that the fans seem to think a lousy 22 pick is supposed to start. Hope pettine will quash that yesterday. The best thing for monsieur football (next to sliding) is to sit in the parking lot and watch from hoyer how you earn it..

    • zarathustra

      Yes to all of this! I am not at all happy about the 22 pick, but it goes down smooth enough due to how much I love gilbert and the bills picks. Moreover, one–if not all three–of the players that were a top my list for 26(matthews, van noy, and ASJ)will likely be there at 35.

    • like buttons.

      i’m really savoring the farmer-pettine press conference right. the way farmer handles leading questions (complete command of what he wants to share). the way pettine walks through the gilbert logic (run support is not as important as man cover skills in his scheme.. he wants CBs that let him play nine-on-nine). i love that farmer had the decency to text hoyer and touch base. in and around the 14 minute mark the pleasant and stark differences with these two versus the banner pressers of really optimism-building.

      http://www.clevelandbrowns.com/media-center/videos/Farmer_And_Pettine_Discuss_First_Round/f9f9a7a2-bf73-4dde-bfcc-9bff6b9196b9

      • jpftribe

        Yes, Farmer pushed all the right buttons today. He also opened Pandora’s box. First INT Hoyer throws half of Cleveland will be screaming for a QB change. God forbid they actually lose a game.

        Will be interesting to see how he handles this. Don’t get me wrong, I really like the guy and will be his biggest fan, but man he bit off a lot to chew. Great to see him going for it, and yes he is refreshing change to Banardi. Certainly got the leagues attention today.

        • zarathustra

          Pandora’s box indeed. I don’t think you can grade the pick in a vacuum. In one of my weaker moments I actually listened to knr the other day and one the hosts–can’t remember who–point blank said Johnny would be good for business because he would create a qb controversy. I doubt he is the only member of the Cleveland media who shares this perspective. QB controversies have sunk better, more veteran teams than this one so I hope they manage it well, but I don’t have much confidence they can.

        • i expect pettine to old-school coach both his manziel and MKC. i actually think the chances are high for him to snap and start belichick-ing reporters who climb up his ass about ‘naming a starter.’ now THAT will be tasty.

          • zarathustra

            I hear you and am all in on pettine, but this isn’t just local media idiots he will be dealing with but national media idiots as well. The problem is I fear it would be impossible for any coach to handle a circus like the one that is rolling into town. Then add in the players inevitable involvement. Josh Gordon has already said he wanted Johnny. How long will he remain silent as Hoyer starts? Stardom doesn’t seem to have left him with fewer opinions thus far.

          • here’s hoping his time with ryan’s circus taught him to get out front in taking control early. who knows, maybe ryan’s loose coaching and the jets’ circus environment was one of the factors that caused him to leave.

          • zarathustra

            Again, I love pettine. I just believe that it is a quagmire. Regardless of what he says or does the local and national media are incentived to promote Johnny as he is good for business. The vast vast majority of browns fans will feed this beast. Players are just as susceptible to media manipulation as any fan. Whether they publicly voice their opinion is irrelevant. The voices will be heard within the locker room. This is in no way a normal QB controversy. The only escape is to give in and play Johnny. I do not believe that is in the best interest of the team.

          • bupalos

            Yeah I haven’t heard the presser yet but I hope they know they need to be extremely forceful here. Even at the risk of sounding like you are running down your own pick, they need to reiterate they didn’t want him at 4 or 9 for a reason, but we basically got him for free and hope he can contribute someday.

            It is going to be a lot of heat. They need to turn the water cannon on now. I actually have some optimism here. This feels like a very strong regime. But yeah, they’ll be up against it. Half of the fans already had this guy in the lineup at 11pm.

          • etc

            It’s already started :/

            nfl.com link: “Coach: Manziel, Hoyer will compete for starting QB job”. That’s one way to interpret “there will be a competition” but the context doesn’t seem to support it.

          • i heard that in the context of ‘we don’t just give jobs to players, they have to earn’ or words to the effect.

            i do still like that they had the courtesy to reach out to hoyer and although it didnt sound like he was happy, he’s doing the right things on twitter.

          • zarathustra

            I don’t share your optimism, but none of really matters ultimately. The browns drafted a qb in the first round. He will eventually start regardless of what hoyer does. It is just a matter of when. I’m just forlorn because I would prefer to see hoyer get a chance to succeed and be the long term answer at qb and I don’t see any realistic way that that door was not closed last night.

    • jpftribe

      Love getting Gilbert and a no 1, nice first move by Farmer. Don’t like the JFF pick, mainly because I don’t like JFF. But if Farmer, Pettine and Shanahan liked him and think he can be the man, than trading up a second third round pick to take him away from Spielman is a solid move. 10 rookies aren’t going to make this team. BTW, it was probably a nice fuck you message to Spielman who jukes them out of a fifth rounder to take Gilbert.

      No way the kid starts, likely behind Young or Thigpen on the depth chart. If Young has his head on straight it could be a great training camp.

      Would be great to see Lee drop to them with the next pick. I’m surprised they didn’t give up the second fourth rounder to Seattle to grab him in round 1. That would have really stuck it to Spielman.

      Can one of you techie guys tell me how to block cleveland.com in my browsers. MKC’s 347 JFF write ups before training camp are going to turn me seriously suicidal.

      • best we can hope is that the camp circus will be managed/controlled with authority by pettine. not sure chud wouldve been right for that challenge and damn sure shurmur wouldve been a disaster.

        i take solace in two data points with manziel — draftbrowns.com loves him (draftbrowns is the only other place that had evans over watkins; had fuller at their top dback; rated d.bucannon as first round safety… so they’ve been strong this year) and the mcginn reports rated manziel #1 qb with a some pretty glowing scouting reports. (“He’s more talented than the guy at New Orleans (Drew Brees),” one scout said. … He reminds me a little bit of (Joe) Montana. Fluid, and even though off-balance he can get the ball out. Has big hands (9 7/8 inches) for a little guy. To me, the only thing holding him back is the off-the-field and if he’s committed to coming in on Mondays and Tuesdays.”)

        i havent even crept over to cle-dot-com yet..

      • bupalos

        Is it the 2nd 3rd we gave up? Map room gets a little disheveled so despite hanging there for 5 hours I really didn’t follow along too well.

        • yes, it was pitt’s pick at 83 that now sits with the eagles.
          how was map room? not that it counts, but i did give serious consideration to roadtripping out there yesterday AM.

          • bupalos

            Sweet. That pick isn’t all that great. Map was a cornucopia of delights. Superhostess and general best-person-in-the-world CTIL had the pizza ready and waiting. Wunderkind Borcas (who really is disturbingly young to be as good a writer as he is) had the thing nicely pegged and could have run our draft even better than Farmer probably. Pete’s obligatory headstand left a waffle tattoo on his brain. And I got drunk enough to smoke and wander back in the bar with a lit ciggie, resulting in like a general hazmat alert for the northern half of cuyahoga county.

            And despite all these hijinks, you were missed.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            No “Feats of Strength”? Or “Airing of the Grievances”?
            JFF being reunited with Dr Frackenstein was a Festivus Miracle!

          • bupalos

            The feats of strength are saved for 900lb slovak ape-men, and none were in attendance unfortunately. Sorry they broke your no-QB’s-before-the-11th-round rule, but hey, Fracky’s gotta sell tickets.

            Tivy in the howz!

          • we might need to trade back up into the late third for dri archer. then our draft is complete.

          • CleveLandThatILove

            Saving you a seat for next year. There really is no better place to be on draft night.

  • Petefranklin

    EXCELLENT TAKES! I’m hoping that the Browns end up with Matthews and a CB tonight. There are far too many WR can’t miss first round busts over the years. Braylon, I loved that pick….don’t fall in love with a WR…just sayin.

    • mgbode

      I prefer Marquise Lee, but if we are worried about the family history and injury history, then I will not be upset with Jordan Matthews at all (or Van Noy).

  • MrCleaveland

    Great stuff, Kanick. I love that you don’t travel with the herd. I’d be thrilled if your first-round predictions pan out.

  • nj0

    Thanks for all the work you and others have done here. I despise the spectacle that is the NFL draft and don’t follow college football so your site has basically been my only source of information on this year’s draft. I’ve come to agree with much of your logic and hope to see the team land Evans tonight.

    • mgbode

      Evans and Vincent Jackson. Josh McCown went from Ashlon Jeffreys & Brandon Marshall to those 2 guys. How did he win the QB lotto?

  • mgbode

    great, so you had to write this and get me to chime in before leaving early. if I hit traffic, then I’m blaming you 🙂

    Groves to ILB – I’m all-aboard that particular position switch if we deem an OLB instead of a ILB in the draft. Easier to find a backup OLB than a starting ILB, so it makes sense and Groves does have some of the traits I would look for next to Dansby. Assuming, Quentin isn’t soliciting police officers anymore.

    Mack sliding – I can see it happening. I don’t want the Browns to take him for the reason you mention (ILB is not a value position that high up). I also can see a team like JAX or Tenn falling in love with his skillset and nabbing him. So, we’ll see, but it’s certainly plausible.

    Fuller – I go Gilbert/Dennard/Fuller, but would be happy with any of the three guys. Obviously, Gilbert is my favorite and I do not expect Fuller to go before 3rd CB overall, but I wouldn’t be shocked either.

    Bengals – if they take Bortles/Carr and that QB falls on his face, then I will be happy. I expect them to end up with the 3rd of the CBs listed above though.

    Browns – no 1st round QB – I find it plausible and have been suggesting it for awhile. Gilbert + Ebron being my favorite scenario. Most likely way it happens though is if we go Watkins at #4 and then there is a run on the 4 QBs.

    MKC – please do not bring up this attention seeking person again. you are playing into it there.

    • mgbode

      wish I was wrong about Cinci.

      • i actually think they couldve milked another year out of newman-jones and give kirkpatrick one more year of runway. they will rue not getting an alt qb when they wind up paying dalton before the season and then he plays the way you just know he’s gonna play. the window shut on cincy last nite.

  • People are going to be surprised if the Bengals take a quarterback but they really shouldn’t be. They have a huge decision to make on Dalton after this season, and if they don’t want to pay him the big bucks, they get his successor this year and then let him walk in the off season.

    Maybe not in the first round, but could be the second.

  • Tron

    “Manziel-Fuller-Cooks. Just stop.” Hahaha

  • zarathustra

    So many great takes.
    I am not quite as enthusiastic about evans, but would be a-okay with the pick if it works out that way. I think you have done a tremendous job making the case for him, but do think you are a little too down on Sammy.
    Also, totally agree on mack. I only scratched the surface on it when I made my krm selection, not even realizing Decker was the tackle he was matched up against. And I mentioned in my post–no Carlos Hyde. I am about as big of a detractor of Hyde as an nfl prospect that you will find, but he was greatly missed that day and their offense was off balance. I be will anything but a-okay if he is the pick.
    The 49ers will move up and I would absolutely take that deal.
    I don’t know who will be the first cb selected, but I so want the browns to get one of the top three.
    I love ASJ and would be happy with him at 26, but in concert with evans at four might be a little much for me.
    I read that MKC quote about Robinson/Walter Jones and wept. I honestly made a vow to quit reading draft articles after that monument to idiocy. This is the only thing I have read since and I do not intend on reading any more until it is over. I am so glad it is finally here.

  • bupalos

    I’m down with evans at 4. I’m not sure he’ll be better than Watkins, but he’s probably better for the Browns given our receiver mix.

    Petine out again today saying very sensible things about Brian Hoyer and sitting any QB we might happen to pick. I think it’s a pretty fair lock that that 26 is going towards a QB though and it kind of sounds to me like they are trying to convince a team there is no need to move up in the teens for bridgey. Which probably means that’s what we’re doing, maybe 19 in front of the Bengals. I think we’re going to see at least 2 trade ups resulting in 3 first round picks– one of the 2 WR’s early, then Bridgey and one of the 3 corners mid-round.

    Evans, Bridgewater, Verret, Richburg or someone along those lines. I think that will basically be our whole draft after maneuvering.

  • bupalos

    Carr IS Andy Dalton, if Andy Dalton were as bad as you think he is. Same wax brain that melts when it gets hot. And while Dalton is kind of oblivious to pressure in a way that is both good and bad, Carr is VERY aware of pressure in a way that is bad and worse. While I’m pretty sure they’ll put a qb on the roster because of the contract situation, I can’t see them thinking that is their solution.

    I’m going to keep railing against Carr because I’m already pretty sure the gods are going to stick him on us, and I’m hoping they’ll push it and try to make me look like a fool.

      • bupalos

        No Weeden really really sucks. Dalton is just an average QB with a high beta.

        • weeden had nothing like dalton’s receiving corps or running backs. not saying weeden is good but dont forget josh gordon was serving his drank susp last year before he was injured-benched. dalton has had green-sanu-jones-etc-etc-etc. dalton and weeden are closer to equal but both are bad.

          • mgbode

            whoa there fella. Dalton makes terrible decisions, but he doesn’t take 2 minutes per snap to make them.