Seattle takes Cameron Fleming. #KRM

JWKBGBEBHCDJSKT.20131008044514 We know the draft will not go as expected and that we will meet this year’s Tyson Alualu at some point in Round One.  Kolonich serves up the KRM’s biggest first round surprise today.


I’m honored to bring up the proverbial rear of the inaugural Kanick mock draft.  Clearly, the pressure is on to deliver – and since I’m more experienced in making meta mock draft selections than “real” ones, I’ll admit to some nerves.  Drawing the Seahawks makes the task even more difficult, as they are the rare, young, built through the draft Super Bowl champions who theoretically could be better in the coming season.  Seattle’s John Schneider tends to find the best available talent for Pete Carroll to coach – an idea that screams of pure practicality.  While their chief rivals in San Francisco* engage in petty front office squabbles, (and in Denver toss out 80 mil in dumb free agent money)1 the Seahawks keep building quality depth through the draft. In trying to find some common draft themes, I was sucked into the wormhole of Seahawks’ past and realized two things:

Schneider and Carroll.

Schneider and Carroll.

  1. First, the obvious:  The Seahawks are pros at this whole drafting thing.  If the Seahawks’ current run extends another few seasons, the 2010 and 2012 drafts – along with some late 2011 picks – could rank among the best in league history.  For a (painful) contrast: the Browns took Haden, Ward, Hardesty and Richardson, Weeden, Schwartz.
  2. And for the inexplicable:  One of Pat Shurmur’s nine NFL wins came against the 2011 Seahawks.  Granted, Shurmur beat Charlie Whitehurst – or more precisely, Dick Jauron’s defense managed to hold up two Phil Dawson field goals – but what’s remarkable is that one of the most dominant champs in years was largely a pedestrian squad forged on the fruits of two outstanding drafts.  Add Irvin, Wagner and Wilson to 2010’s bounty of Okung, Thomas, Tate and Chancellor – throw in Sherman, Maxwell, Malcolm Smith and a 2013 class that is basically waiting to be Varsity eligible and it’s clear that the Seahawks are the closest thing to a dynasty a postmodern NFL can allow.  And again, in a bizarro football world, Shurmur beat the Seahawks.

So it goes when your team drafts its franchise quarterback as a third round value pick.  While Russell Wilson is representative of the Seahawks’ golden draft touch, it’s worth noting that Schneider and Carroll’s approach is really quite simple:  Draft fast.  Draft big. 2 Stick to the major schools (but take the occasional scouting trip to Logan, Utah).

Let’s not complicate things.  

THE PICK

But let’s go ahead and complicate things.

Aj-Mccarron-Tattoo-Arm

QB inflation factor brings AJ McCarron into second round discussions. Bonus! Ink like Kaep.

Let’s rewind the first round.  According to a collection of the smartest readers around, exactly four quarterbacks are off the board – starting with JPF Tribe’s Texans’ pick of Bortles.  Take away a need for Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota and Tampa and you’re still left with a loose gathering of eight QB-needy teams.  By my count:

  • Jacksonville (Obvious)
  • Oakland (no matter what they say)
  • St. Louis (Swing Pass Sam Bradford)
  • Buffalo (Fragile EJ Manuel)
  • Tennessee (Charlie Whitehurst is your Week 7 starter)
  • NY Giants (Time to think post-Eli)
  • NY Jets (Geno would likely be the fifth QB taken this year)
  • Arizona (Can’t be a serious playoff contender with Carson)

And if they were honest with themselves, throw in Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Cincinnati. Let’s consider the natural inflation of marginal quarterback prospects.  If really smart people think four QB’s go in Round One, that equates to a huge second round run – where the presumed risk for GM’s somehow evaporates.  Teams scared of making another Gabbert-Ponder-Locker pick now have their eyes fixed on the Texans and #33 overall slot. And they’ll have an entire night and day to toss around trade proposals.  And overnight, Garoppolo, McCarron, Mettenberger, Tom Savage**, et all will rise from their rightful fourth round ceiling into the lower pressure realm of “not a first round QB.” Since the Seahawks are a rarity – a smart front office that builds quality depth through the draft – wouldn’t it make sense for Schneider and Carroll to jump in front of the Texans and make a deal?  Whoever trades picks with Seattle avoids competing with a quarter of the league for number 33 – and likely gets a better deal. Of course, Seattle can easily afford to slide down seven or eight spots, land another third and fifth rounder – because competent front offices know what to do with those picks. (BANNER – 2013 DRAFT LINK.)

THE PICK – For Real This Time

But if we’re staying within the confines of this mock draft exercise, let’s assume the Seahawks sit tight and grab a real player. Their needs are few:

Stanley+Jean+Baptiste+Southern+Miss+v+Nebraska+V5caERC2VEml

Intimidating SJB would fit right into the Seahawks secondary.

  1. Lost Thurmond and Browner.
  2. Lost some veteran D-Line weight.
  3. Need a new right tackle.
  4. Let the Lions be the Lions (i.e., Golden Tate)
  5. Uh…..O-Line depth?

Stanley Jean-Baptiste
In honor of Kanicki’s passion for big corners, we’ll start with the obvious.  Jean-Baptiste fits the mold of what Schneider seeks in a corner.  He’s big, uses his hands well and followed the Sherman path of starting as a converted wide receiver.  Being that the NFL is a copycat league, expect Jean-Baptiste to rise from a natural third-round slot into the upper reaches of the second round. But then again, the Seahawks have already drafted Thurmond’s replacement and didn’t necessarily miss Browner last year.

Kony Ealy
Carroll can never have enough pass rushers and Ealy just makes too much sense as the occasional Leo or Elephant or whatever it’s being called now.  While his position is already crowded in Seattle, Ealy could be a cheaper Michael Bennett in 2015 and beyond.  Plus, the prospects of the uber-hip Seahawks fan base wearing neon lime “KONY 2014” tee shirts are too easy.

Cameron Fleming
In terms of actual need, the Seahawks O-line is probably not as deep as the rest of the roster.  Losing Giacomini hurts a little but is far from anything that will affect real games.  However, adding Fleming – huge, moves well, Stanford grad – is a cheap fix.  Plus, can’t you see Carroll wanting to take a dig at Stanford Harbaugh here?

130821134648-cameron-fleming-single-image-cut

Pretty sure Fleming is a Harbaugh recruit.

Kelvin Benjamin
2014 Pete Carroll channels 2011 Pete Carroll and grabs this year’s next Mike Williams.  Although Kearse, Baldwin and Harvin can help win a title, re-signing Sidney Rice is a curious move.  Losing Tate isn’t critical, but the depth is lacking here.  Benjamin wins this year’s most physically impressive, boom or bust receiver potential award – the kind of gamble that Carroll finds himself usually winning.  Of course, Benjamin may also drop into the nether regions of Round Three given his recent press.

THE PICK – OFFICIAL

Let’s go with Cameron Fleming.  Carroll rubs a little more dirt in Harbaugh’s eye.

                 

*In Harbaugh v. Baalke, I’m going with Harbaugh.  Take another look at that 2012 draft.

**I’m pretty sure Tom Savage is a made up name.  To be a Tom Savage, you’re either a soap opera actor, porn star or Duluth, Minnesota meteorologist.


Super Bowl champs get to draft depth in first round.  How cool is that?  Gracias DK.  PS, more than one person has mentioned to me that they miss your site/blog.

That’s a wrap for the first round.  Matt Borcas is on the clock at the top of the second round for the Texans.
Pick #TeamSelection
(linked to KRM post)
Reader
1TexansBlake Bortlesjpftribe
2RamsGreg RobinsonDave Kolonich
3JaguarsSammy WatkinsClevTA
4BrownsJadeveon ClowneyZarathustra
5RaidersKhalil MackPete Franklin
6FalconsJake MatthewsOXR
7BucsJohnny ManzielPeterM
8VikingsTeddy Bridgewatertrashycamaro
9BillsTaylor Lewanclay
10LionsHa’Sean Clinton-Dixbluedog93
11TitansAnthony Barrkanick
12GiantsEric EbronRod of Disaster
13RamsMike EvansMatt Borcas
14BearsAaron DonaldJRich
15SteelersDarqueze Dennard tmoore94
16CowboysLouis NixGrandRapidsRustlers
17RavensJustin GilbertMGBode
18JetsBrandin CooksZarathustra
19DolphinsZack Martintrashycamaro
20CardinalsCalvin PryorJRich
21PackersJace AmaroClevTA
22EaglesMarqise LeeGrandRapidsRustlers
23ChiefsRa'Shede Hagemanclay
24BengalsBradley RobyOXR
25ChargersKyle Fullertexinottawa
26BrownsDerek CarrChuckKoz
27SaintsOdell Beckham tmoore94
28PanthersXavier Su'a-Filojpftribe
29PatriotsTimmy Jerniganbluedog93
30NinersJason VerrettRod of Disaster
31BroncosCJ MosleyPete Franklin
32SeahawksCameron FlemingDave Kolonich
33 (2nd rd)TexansTroy NiklasMatt Borcas
34RedskinsStephon Tuittkanick
35BrownsRyan ShazierMGBode
36Raiders
  1. I calc Talib, Ward, Ware, Sanders at approx. $125 in total dollars. [back]
  2. Amen. [back]

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  • Petefranklin

    OK, the NFL schedule is now 24 hours old, and it seems to me that the people much smarter than me think that the CMB’s (as Bup calls them) will be a .500 team this year!!
    I was kind of blowing off the Clowns raise in their season win total that happened until I saw that the juice actually raised from -160 to -165 AFTER the schedules were released yesterday.
    I first noted that the Browns were -140 to win OVER 6.5 games this year a couple of weeks ago here on Kanicki’s site.
    I realized that this movement was real $$cash, but didn’t know that it was a “real movement”.
    You see, gamblers have realized that putting a small amount of $ on a side that will influence the line in their favor, can lead to huge profits after they set the line (falsely) in their favor and bet against their early $ movement.
    This has to do with low limits and stuff that I wont get involved with now, but I think I’ve caught what’s up with the Browns.
    Everyone, including the insophisicated, looks at the schedule before they would make a season long bet. I thought that the Browns early movement from -140 OVER 6.5 to -160 might have been a false movement, being thet the Clowns have a rookie coach and all.
    24 hours AFTER the schedule release the Browns get bet UP again to -165( which would basically make them -125 to win 7 games)
    I find this astounding! Rookie coach. QB?
    I’ve been here before( GO SHURMER, WCO rules!!), but I really think that the Browns may do something( not suck) this year
    Money says the Browns win 8 this year, just like KC last year and Detroit the year before were the big easy winners for season win totals.
    Please don’t bet anything more than rent, but the wiseguys say that this the year of the CLOWN! G.L.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Pete Franklin, acting in the grand tradition of his ancestors who brought him up in the properly stringent edicts of the cosa nostra, is trying to get us all to buy in to a hobbled horse winning the derby.
      I will most assuredly end up with a well cobbled pair of cement shoes shortly after I hit send, but it is obvious Mr. Franklin is either betting the farm on a doomed franchise to support his out of control oolong habit, or he is taking the other side and trying to convince morons like me to back back the blundering Browns.

      • Petefranklin

        No betting on the Browns for me. Take a guess what you think the week 1 line vs. the Steelers is.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          Steelers -9??
          New coach, questionable QB and offensive scheme, fans unlikely to get their seat rebates….
          I would take the Still-leers and give the points.

          • mgbode

            too low of a line.

            here’s some did you knows:
            Did you know that the Browns are 0-6 in week1 with a new coach since 1999?

            Did you know that we lost by less than double-digits in only one of those games (2001 6-9 vs. Seattle)?

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Sorry mgbodhinatha, I was just guessing. However, I doubt that the odds-makers will put the line at double digits.

          • mgbode

            Yep, just offering my guess with counterpoint

          • Petefranklin

            Sorry guys, the Browns are going to be good this year. Definite trap game for the public…..Pitt -5

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Really? It seems like a simply sound investment to bet the farm on Pittsburgh.
            How could it only be -5? Which way would you kids bet?

          • mgbode

            I could never bet on pitt, but it seems slanted in their favor

          • how long ya think the taking-weeden-over-decastro decision will haunt?
            i’m thinking a full decade.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            jk,
            You are correct sir!
            If you recall, I was pushing for Doug Martin or Russell Wilson, but I would have liked Decastro better than Weeden.
            Well, I had T. Y. Hilton in there too, below Wilson and I believe slightly ahead of Martin.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    On another note…. Although I liked his highlight reel, Kony Ealy has his head in the wrong place, and all the way up to his shoulders too.
    When will Jake Locker be available? Even though I really like our fine young charge from from Iggy, Jake :Locker is one of my favorite re-treads.

    • mgbode

      Jake Locker is an UFA after this upcoming season. However, it is extremely likely that he will either cement himself as a useable starter and sign for ~$10mi/season with the Titans. Or, he’ll fall on his face (or get injured – again) and be a quite risky sign next March.

      Also, we are not going to wait on him (obviously), so the only way we sign him is if we have already given up on Hoyer & whatever QB we draft (as we are very likely drafting one even if not in the 1st round). Even a bad year from Jake is going to have him getting another chance at starting and he’s not going to want to go to a team that has someone already earmarked for the job.

  • mgbode

    As to the pick itself, Kanick was correct in that I would not guess it. I struck out swinging.

    I don’t view Fleming as a guy who can handle RT in the NFL, but he is big/strong enough to move to OG (he makes Schwartz look nimble on speed rushers and looks at the ground when driving, which NFL defenders will simply swim by).

    The thing is that I would have him 5th or 6th at this point on my OG list. From yesterday:
    OG: Bitonio, G.Jackson, Yankey, Kouandjio

    But, I am always open to new ideas and thoughts. Let’s even boil this down further to Stanford. Why do you like Fleming over Yankey? Do you project Cameron to be able to handle RT and improve his technique on the wide-9 speed rushers? Or do you thinks the slightly more stout frame of Fleming will be better long-term than Yankey who already has experience in the interior?

    • Dave Kolonich

      I project Cameron to be the greatest player in the history of the world. But of course I could be wrong.

      • mgbode

        Ah, but you could also be correct.

  • mgbode

    Draft Fast. Draft Big.

    The Al Davis school of drafting. It can be a great way to draft, but it became a joke in his later years because of an incredibly important piece that he lost. You have to have great film in addition to those 2 ideas. Draft big, fast guys who have great film (Al lost his ability to scout tape as he got older – happens to the best of them).

    • Dave Kolonich

      I miss Al Davis’ anti-authoritarian, brilliant old guy crazy – especially given how needlessly corporate sterile the NFL has become. But right, he definitely lost his fastball when it came to finding modern day players.