KRM: Sammy Watkins taken at #3 by Jags.

SammyWatkinsReportPSE

Kanick Reader Mock presses on today with one of my timeline’s most committed handicappers at the podium.  Here is ClevTA’s break down of the Jaguars’ possible pick at #3.

2014 Off Season Transactions.

Jaguars Bradley Football

Gus and Shad. I actually think they’re going to make it work in Jax.
(And then move to London but that’s another story.)

It’s not that hard to figure out for whom Jags Head Coach Gus Bradley used to work based on their off-season moves.  By bringing in defensive lineman Red Bryant and Chris Clemons, Bradley is helping to beef up his defensive line with two ex Seattle Seahawk players.  Add in the addition of NT Ziggy Hood and re-signing of DE Jason Babin and the Jags all of a sudden have the looks of a formidable defensive front.  Offensively, the team re-signed veteran QB Chad Henne and decided to sign Toby Gerhart to carry the load at RB and letting MJD walk.  I’m not a fan of handing Gerhart the sole RB job but maybe they will draft a RB in the mid rounds or let Denard Robinson get some touches.  Good luck with that.

Depth Chart/Needs.

On offense it’s really ugly.  Henne at least can stabilize the QB position while a young QB is being groomed but in terms of skill positions it’s not pretty.  As mentioned above Gerhart is your lead RB.  He could be good for 4 yds/carry but has very little big play ability.  The OL is ok and bringing in G Zane Beadles from Denver is a nice pickup to go with last year’s first round pick Luke Joeckel.  At TE, Mercedes Lewis is just ok but good enough for one more year as a starter.  The WR position needs tons of help, especially considering the unknown status of Justin Blackmon after his suspension last year for violating the NFL Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse.  Blackmon is eligible for reinstatement in 2014 but that is up in the air and even if he does come back there are no assurances he will stay clean.  Cecil Shorts is a solid #2 WR but he can’t be relied upon to carry the load against defense’s top CB.  Ace Sanders is an excellent return man and could be a good slot WR in the future.  Outside of those two guys there really isn’t much else there.  Assuming Blackmon is not coming back, a big play #1 WR is a big priority for the worst scoring offense last season.

clowney1

This guy is available to the Browns.
Won’t speak them, but am thinking ill things about last year’s draft choices…

On defense, as mentioned above, the DL is pretty well set and a solid overall group.  They definitely needed the help as the Jags ranked 30th in the league in sack%.  The LB core is decent at best with Paul Posluszny manning the middle but I am not sure if Geno Hayes and Russell Allen are the answers on the outside.  OLB is definitely a big need.  In the secondary, the Jags ranked 26th in yards/attempt against the pass last year.  They definitely need help in the secondary and I’d imagine that Bradley will want to copy his former Seahawk secondary model of big, physical corners and playmaking safeties in the back-end of his defense.

The Candidates.

1.  Jadeveon Clowney DE S Carolina.
Awesome talent obviously, but does he have the desire to be the best?  That’s a question that can’t be answered right now but if every prospect in this draft reached their potential Clowney would be the best player in this draft class.

2.  Sammy Watkins WR Clemson.
Tremendous game breaker at the WR position, who ran a 4.43 40 at the combine, showed not only that he was a deep threat but also would go over the middle. He’s a tough guy and although he does not possess Calvin Johnson type size he plays bigger than his size.  He recorded 101 receptions for 1,464 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013.  I also liked that Watkins played well against good opponents.  Against Georgia (6-127), South Carolina (7-93), Florida State (8-68) and Ohio State (16-227-2) Watkins tallied 37 receptions for 515 yards and 4 touchdowns.

3.  Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville.
My personal favorite QB in this draft.  Outside of Andrew Luck, I’ve never seen a college QB consistently call plays at the line and audible on his own.  He completed a spectacular 71% of his throws with a supporting cast that rivaled Temple.  He had no run game and very little in terms of WR speed.  There is not a single Louisville skill position player ranked in Scouts Inc’s top 30 WR or RB.  Let’s compare Bridgewater’s numbers to Bortles, who is considered the other top QB in this class.  On 3rd downs, Bridgewater completed 68%, had 14 TDs and only 1 INT.  On the other hand, while Bortles did a nice job on 1st and 2nd downs completing 70% and 75% respectively, his 3rd down rate dropped substantially to 54%.  That’s a huge warning sign.

Teddy-Bridgewater-USA-Today-Sports

ClevTA makes a good case for Bridgewater and points out his LOS presence as a consideration.

Straight from Prediction Machine’s Matt Richner:

… most of the elite quarterbacks who have been drafted in the last couple of years, (Luck, RGIII, and Wilson) did not see this significant of a drop in their completion percentage on third down.  Russell Wilson, in his lone season at Wisconsin, completed 71.7 percent on first down, 71.8 percent on second down, and 75.3 percent on third down.

You may not think that 3rd down completion percentage means all that much but check out the numbers on recent busts Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker in that regard.  “In Gabbert’s final season at Missouri he completed 71 percent on first down, 68 percent on second down, and a dismal 44 percent on third down.  In Locker’s final season at Washington, he completed 55 percent on first down, 62 percent on second down, and 51 percent on third down.”

Give me Teddy all day long over Bortles.

4. Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo.
Another physical freak who I saw firsthand dominate the Buckeyes in Columbus.  He’s an explosive athlete who dominated the MAC where he posted 28.5 sacks, 16 forced fumbles and an astonishing 74 TFL in his career.

Jaguars Selection at #3.

I’m going to go with Sammy Watkins here.  Lots of good candidates and the Jags are filled with major needs so they really can’t go wrong with any of the four guys above but the huge playmaking hole on offense combined with the Blackmon uncertainty made me lean Watkins’ way.  The Jags did a nice job adding to their front four in free agency so I don’t see Clowney going here.  With Henne re-signing, this signals to me that adding a QB in round 2 like Garoppolo or Mettenberger is the way they will go as Henne can start for another year if need be.

.

And there you go.  Browns are on the clock with Clowney, Manziel, Bridgewater, Mack, Matthews, Evans, Gilbert… etc., available.  Zarathustra, you’re on the clock.  Bring it home for us.

Now on the clock:  Zarathustra for the Browns.

Pick #TeamSelection
(linked to KRM post)
Reader
1TexansBlake Bortlesjpftribe
2RamsGreg RobinsonDave Kolonich
3JaguarsSammy WatkinsClevTA
4BrownsJadeveon ClowneyZarathustra
5RaidersKhalil MackPete Franklin
6FalconsJake MatthewsOXR
7BucsJohnny ManzielPeterM
8VikingsTeddy Bridgewatertrashycamaro
9BillsTaylor Lewanclay
10LionsHa’Sean Clinton-Dixbluedog93
11TitansAnthony Barrkanick
12GiantsEric EbronRod of Disaster
13RamsMike EvansMatt Borcas
14BearsAaron DonaldJRich
15SteelersDarqueze Dennard tmoore94
16CowboysLouis NixGrandRapidsRustlers
17RavensJustin GilbertMGBode
18JetsBrandin CooksZarathustra
19DolphinsZack Martintrashycamaro
20CardinalsCalvin PryorJRich
21PackersJace AmaroClevTA
22EaglesMarqise LeeGrandRapidsRustlers
23ChiefsRa'Shede Hagemanclay
24BengalsBradley RobyOXR
25ChargersKyle Fullertexinottawa
26BrownsDerek CarrChuckKoz
27SaintsOdell Beckham tmoore94
28PanthersXavier Su'a-Filojpftribe
29PatriotsTimmy Jerniganbluedog93
30NinersJason VerrettRod of Disaster
31BroncosCJ MosleyPete Franklin
32SeahawksCameron FlemingDave Kolonich
33 (2nd rd)TexansTroy NiklasMatt Borcas
34RedskinsStephon Tuittkanick
35BrownsRyan ShazierMGBode
36Raiders

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  • CLEVTA

    Thanks for the kind words. For the record I’d take Bridgewater #1 and obviously #3 if I was Jacksonville but for these purposes I went with their biggest need and what I think Khan will do. I can’t believe the same Teddy who tore apart an NFL-laden defense in Florida at the Sugar Bowl just 14 months ago is now all of the sudden “too frail” has “small hands”, etc. My personal opinion is that bc he played in a pro style boring offense for Charlie Strong and had no weapons and a system that didn’t allow for 60+ passes, 500 yards, bubble screen-scentric offense people are souring on him. Glove gate is ridiculous if you ask me. Who really cares? Didn’t seem to bother Rothlesberger, Foles. Kurt Warner so I don’t know why it matters here. It was obvious Teddy trying to appease all the NFL people led to him throwing without the glove. He is what he is, an extremely bright kid who called plays at the line for 2 years and picked defenses apart. Here’s how I evaluate a QB entering the draft. 1) Can he throw under pressure? 2) Does he make plays if things break down. Not necessarily running for 20 yds but ability to move within the pocket ala Brees, Peyton, etc. 3) Did he elevate his play against top competition? 4) Is he accurate? 5) Can he command a huddle? 6) Can he make all the throws? Arm strength doesn’t have to be on Jamarcus Russell level just good enough. Brees, Brady, Eli, Peyton all would fall in the middle of starting QBs in terms of arm strength. Teddy checks all those boxes. I have no doubt in my mind that he is a rock solid starting QB in the NFL and will eventually fall in that Matt Ryan/Romo/Eli category of 2nd tier QBs.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    The Browns are going to use both of their 1st round picks to trade up to secure the second pick so that they can get Seth Moreland from The Blue Hose. I thought that everyone knew that by now.

  • bupalos

    If it came up this way where you know the Jags still need a QB and are in front of you for rd. 2, I think you bail back to mid-round and pick up a 2nd that you use to come back up for the value QB (Garopolo, in my mind, but maybe TB or JFF really do freefall) somewhere late teens.

    It’s pretty likely the whole story of this draft is going to be sliding QB’s and the trades that they create.

    • jpftribe

      Serious question ,if Manziel is there at 26, do you take him?

      I don’t get this guy. He seems like the consummate GM killer. He’s Doug Flutie without character.

      • bupalos

        Oh I would, for sure. I’d even come up midround for him if he got past the vikes and the cost of moving came down. I think because of his scrambly stuff people are looking past the fact that he actually throws the ball pretty well, and he’s one of the only QB’s there that I’m pretty sure has a legitimate football brain. I’m not sure he’s done anything character-wise that makes me question his football desire or ability. He’s got a big ego, but I think he’ll work hard to defend it. I think he compares favorably to a guy like Mark Sanchez, who really was a decent prospect but just didn’t develop. He has enough tools, it will all be in the work ethic for him and how much clicks in his brain I think.

        I’m not interested in the media circus that could ensue, and sure don’t want him getting starts out of the gate. But if you took him later, maybe that JFF mystique evaporates to the point he can just be a guy you’re putting on the roster and hoping can develop and earn a job.

        • Petefranklin

          If you put him on the roster, you have to hope he doesn’t drink himself off. I’m just basing that on the Manning camp shenanigans.

  • mgbode

    Fantastic breakdown. I completely agree on Teddy being the best QB in this class. It will be interesting to see if the teams in the top8 prefer the non-QBs and to draft one of the 2nd tier QBs somewhat later. If that is what happens (as this draft is unfolding the possibility), then it will be very nice having the #26 trump pick if our FO has a specific guy they are targeting for the 2nd (even though picking a QB in the 20s has not worked out for us in the past).

  • jpftribe

    Agree with you on Bridgewater, but I still wouldn’t take him top 5. Heard the stats on 3rd down for Bortles, but not on the others. Those are some nuggets of gold there.

  • RGB

    Crap!

  • If the Jags go this way, any plans the Browns had for grabbing a QB at #35 are altered. By the time draft day comes, if the Browns want Garropolo they’ll need to take him at #26 and more likely need to trade-up (in front of the Bengals) to make sure they get him.

    • jpftribe

      Garropolo is a reach at 26, but I agree getting on in round 2 becomes an issue. And if the Texans go Clowney with the first pick it becomes even worse. They’ll need to talk to the Rams on the second round pick, and it still may be moot if O’brien likes him.

    • Petefranklin

      I thought we all liked rolling with Hoyer and grabbing Murray in the third.
      Did you read Haslems interview with Grossi? It sounded like the Browns were going WR or Oline. Haslem said he wanted to surround Hoyer with, he paused , then changed the subject. I don’t think the Browns draft defense with #4.

      • Petefranklin

        And as I scrolled back up, there he was, #11 and a picture of some linebacker.