#CheddarBay Wildcard Week.

Screen Shot 2014-01-02 at 9.58.54 AM

All the glamour of the Cheddar Bay playoffs is upon us.

***Playoff picks logged here.***

Thanks to all who played in this year’s Cheddar Bay Pickstravaganza and congratulations to the thirteen who made it to the playoffs.  You’ve got a one in six chance to come out of this with a respectable honorarium so bear down.

_____
Sudden death.

The playoff field is to be set at 11 players (20% of the original entrants) and thus the field needs to be cut down to that number.  Therefore, the four players (GRR, Pate, Acto, USFCollin) in last place are in a sudden death position.  This means that, of that sub-pool, the two low scores will be eliminated.  If there’s another tie, sudden death will continue into the following week.  Just another reflection of the genius for drama creation innate to this game’s creator.

_____
Let’s hear it for me!

To those who say there should be a prize for first place in the regular season:  I now [kinda] agree.1  But absent monetary consideration, I can assure you that like Mrs. Bixby, I too carry “the solemn pride that must be yours is mine to have laid so costly a sacrifice contribution upon the altar of freedom.”  If 13-5 in essaypicks isn’t a worthy contribution to lay upon the altar of freedom then I don’t know what.

_____
Thanks in advance to surrogate admins, CapGG and Zara.

The playoff picks will go into playoff posts that I’ll put up.  But (since I and the rest of Council of Elders made the playoffs) they will be submitted by the players to gracious volunteers CapGG and Zara.2  CapGG will take the lead in posting picks into this thread after the weekly deadline.  The weekly deadline is an hour before kickoff of the first game that week.3

DON’T BE LATE WITH YOUR PICKS IN THE PLAYOFFS!!

Nobody wants anybody to lose on a technicality.  It’d put CapGG, Zara, me, Elders in the awkward position of enforcing a somewhat arbitrary rule, but yet one that is in place for the protection of all.  So just get your picks in on time.  Gracias.

If you still have a Cheddar itch to write an essay on the GoDaddy Bowl, this is still the place for it, such creativity is always welcome.  Just ask you wait until the playoff picks are posted.

Alrighty let’s go.

And belatedly, this, to you:

_____

  1. Actually, I’m indifferent. [back]
  2. ClevTA also offered but his schedule has him running.  Thanks for the offer TA. [back]
  3. Exception is this week when all picks are due Friday 7pm, but Sugar Bowl picks may be placed tonight by 730pm. [back]
  • Capitalgg

    FlyHighCharlieFrye picks, playoffs week 1

    Auburn +8.5

    Ball State -7.5

    Chiefs +2.5
    Eagles – 2.5
    Chargers +7

    Niners – 2.5

    First, having a playoff road favorite makes a powerful statement.
    Second, as intimidatingly cold as Green Bay can be, the 49ers are built
    for messy conditions and power football and keeping it simple. I am a
    little concerned about the revenge factor from last January, however I
    just think this Niners team is superior and due for a little run. The
    Packers revolve around Rodgers and he’s as good as it gets, but I just
    think this is a steep mountain for Green Bay to climb. Phil Dawson for
    the win, maybe? I’d prefer SF by 14.

  • Capitalgg

    Chuckkoz

    Oklahoma State +1.5 (vs Missouri)

    Colts -2.5 (vs Chiefs)
    Eagles -2.5 (vs Saints)

    Chargers +7 (at Bengals)

    Florida St +8.5 (vs Auburn)

    Essay: 49ers -2.5 (at Packers)
    Supposed
    to be about 0 degrees at kickoff. I actually think that favors the
    49ers, as they have the QB that is mobile, but Rogers is going to rely
    on his arm in weather that is not very friendly for WRs. And that
    assumes Rogers stays in the game long enough. I could see him taking
    some shot and getting knocked out, because he showed an absolute
    unwillingness to get out of the pocket last week against Chicago. Well,
    he may been able get away with that against a Bears defense (#30 in
    NFL) that made Jason Campbell look good, but this is the 49ers (top 5 in
    NFL). And this 49ers team is hitting its stride, winning 6 in a row,
    have only lost to quality opponents and beat the Packers when both teams
    were healthy at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the Packers won just
    4 games at home all year and are currently ravaged by injuries. Hence,
    I like the 49ers to win handily.

  • Capitalgg

    I think that is everyone. I’ve posted the picks of those who played the Sugar Bowl as a reply to their Sugar Bowl pick. The Prohibitive Favorite, of course, jumped the gun…

    As always, email or tweet at me if something is missing.

    • Capitalgg

      Found 2 more that were in well before deadline. Now posted. Sorry ChuckKoz and FlyHighCharlieFrye.

  • Capitalgg

    Squeeky picks

    Essay: Florida state: so let’s say you don’t have a dog in
    this fight. What’s the first thing you want? A close game. And what
    makes more sense, what sounds safer than taking the points, oh those
    generous over a touchdown points, that are being offered to the number 2
    team in the country from what is obviously the best conference in the
    country. Yes this is all so sensible. It’s so sensible that this opened
    in double digits at some shops and came down. Yes, because the points
    are free here. It’s all free. Auburn is the best and they didn’t even
    need their conference to fix the game for them to get here. Yep, it’s
    just all so easy and sensible. So easy that we are taking Florida St for
    our first cheddar essay.

    Others:

    Arkansas St.

    Green bay

    Cincy

    Philly

    Indy

  • Capitalgg

    oxr

    Packers +2.5 over 49ers – gone back and forth multiple times on this one but, eh, home dog in awful weather game.

    Chargers +7 over Bengals – too many points
    Colts -2.5 over Chiefs – blegh

    Auburn +8.5 over Florida State – ooh, a college game!

    Missouri -1.5 over Oklahoma State – I’m assuming there’ll be lots of action on Clemson/OSU, so I’m staying well clear.

    Essay: Eagles -2.5 over Saints – The Eagles
    were a poor essay pick for me last week, and yet here I am again. Well,
    the Cowboys got a lot more pressure on Foles than I expected, and Kyle
    Orton played a lot better than I expected – and yet without an
    Orton-to-Bryant TD pass on 4th and 9 (or whatever) that still stood a
    good chance of being a cover (I can’t complain; the Packers’ last-minute
    TD-instead-of-FG to cover is what ultimately put me in the playoffs).
    I’m hoping that was just an off week and the true potential of the
    Eagles offense is more in line with what they did to the Bears. The
    Saints’ defense is missing a few pieces this week, and I’m hoping
    something can be done to keep Foles upright, such as (say) running in
    the opposite direction to a lot of overly complicated Rob Ryan blitzes.

    Of course, the weather obviously looms large over most of the NFL
    slate this weekend. I don’t necessarily buy that the Saints are a
    completely different team on the road this year, but they’ve certainly
    had their share of struggles in the outdoors, and their bread-and-butter
    passing offense is going to be tough to execute in subzero-ish
    Philadelphia. This cuts both ways (and oh look, I’m also picking the
    Chargers to cover in Cincinnati!) but I like the Eagles’ chance to run
    better than the Saints’ chance to pass in the poor conditions. Philly
    also has a slight (very slight) edge in weighted DVOA, meaning they’ve
    been playing better later in the season. I don’t love any of these
    games, to be honest, and I hate picking against Brees/Payton, but
    respect for their prior accomplishments is part of what’s keeping this
    line below 3 and that’s enough for me to ride with the NFC’s new kid.
    And if it doesn’t work out, hell, at least I won’t be able to essay ’em
    again next week.

  • Capitalgg

    Cheddar picks for Nick

    Two cheddar seasons, two playoff appearances. 77. 8 points last year and 77 this
    year. Consistently above average, but not great, jack of all trades, master of
    none, such is my life. Last year I was just happy to be here- wrong attitude.
    Like Dan Marino in a super bowl, you never know how many chances you will get
    to win the crown. I can only dream of being able to put Cheddar Bay Champion on
    my tombstone.

    Houston
    +2.5 vs Vanderbilt***Essay Play

    Vandy’s starting QB will miss this game with a torn ACL. The best player on the field is
    Vandy’s WR Jordan Matthews, who will be less effective because of freshman back
    up QB, who’s more of a runner than a thrower. Vandy’s coach is
    getting a lot of buzz for bigger and better head coaching jobs, a big red flag
    for me. Though they have won, Vandy’s offense is only averaging 19.7 pts in last
    3 contests in grind it out type games. I don’t think this recipe is good enough against the Cougars.

    Houston
    has been a darling cover team all year. Their defense, led by talented
    linebackers and opportunistic DBs have forced 40 turnovers this season,
    most in NCAA. They are terrible at pass defense, but facing an
    inexperienced QB should help. They have
    the QB advantage, with ACC true freshman of the year QB John O’Korn.
    O’Korn is going up against the best secondary he’s faced all year, but
    he has the talent to blow this game open. They also
    have their own stud WR in Deontay Greenberry. Houston’s four losses were
    by an
    average of five pts to BYU, Louisville, Cinci, and UCF. They bring it
    every game.

    I’m don’t like that this game is a 3 hour drive from Nashville and an 11 hour drive from Houston. But this
    is Vanderbilt’s 3rd straight bowl game. And I’m pretty sure
    fans are more interested in what’s going to happen to their head coach
    than the outcome of this game. So I’m
    not sure how excited Vandy is to play in the BBVA Compass bowl. Houston
    was not in a bowl game last year so I give them the edge on motivation.

    Chiefs +2.5 vs Colts

    Saints +2.5 vs Eagles

    Bengals -7 vs Chargers

    Niners -2.5 vs Packers

    Florida State -8.5 vs Auburn

  • Capitalgg

    Grand Rapids Rustlers – Playoff Picks

    Indy (-2.5) over KC – When in doubt always take the better QB.

    New Orleans (+2.5) over Philly – I just think it’s
    time for the Saints to do something on the road and they clearly have
    the playoff experience in all phases.

    San Francisco (-2.5) over GB – When Phil Dawson boots the winner in OT and the temperature is -15 it just adds to the legend.

    Florida State (-8.5) over Auburn – Auburn was 2
    plays away from playing Nebraska yesterday. It’s a great story that
    comes to a crash landing vs Florida State that just has too much talent
    and the best QB in CFB.

    Missouri (-1.5) over Oklahoma State – Looks at the remaining CFB games that are optional. Picks who I think is the best team.

    Essay Pick

    January 6th, 1991

    It’s been a long time Cincinnati. One of my favorite streaks in all of football will come to an end on Sunday.
    I will no longer be able to taunt my Cincy friends by reminding them
    that my team left for three damn years and still won a playoff game more
    recently.

    The Bengals have far more talent than San Diego on
    both sides of the ball. The main question with Cincy has been how much
    do you trust Andy Dalton. I don’t trust him to go into New England next
    week and do anything but I love this spot Sunday. Brutal cold. West coast team with a 1PM
    start time that is just happy to get into the playoffs. The Bengals
    defense was in control in the first meeting holding the Chargers to 10
    points in San Diego. The Bengals are just a different animal at home and
    run their record to 9-0 at home this year.

    Cincinnati (-7) over San Diego

  • Capitalgg

    USFCollin

    Cheddar me!

    OKSU -1.5 over Mizzou. OKSU has
    something to prove after crapping the bed at home for a Big XII title,
    and Mizzou has been getting fat and happy after their dream season. Two
    teams with totally different bowl game motivations.

    Colts -2.5 over Chiefs. Too scarred by the Andy Reid Era in Philly to ever bet this any other way.

    Eagles
    -2.5 over Saints. Total homer pick… that and the Saints on the road
    have been pretty brutal, and it’s gonna be cold up there.

    Bengals -7 over Chargers. Bengals only the 5th team in 25 years to be 8-0 ATS at home in a season. Sick bro.

    Packers +2.5 over 49ers. I’m really not sure on this one, but gimme Rodgers at home because I guess so?

    Essay: FSU -8.5 over Auburn. FSU might win this game
    by 30. I don’t think anyone realizes how freaking good this team is.
    Auburn won two of the luckiest games in SEC history to get here, and ok
    sure they’re a legit top 15 team too… but there’s no way in hell
    they’re one of the best five much less best two teams in America. And
    they’re running into the college equivalent of the Tiburon teams of
    Madden days of yore.

    Jameis Winston is so good no NFL GM worth his
    overpriced loafers shouldn’t be considering tanking the crap out of next
    season to get him. He’s the most sure-thing NFL QB prospect since
    Peyton Manning, and he’s got weapons all over the field to throw it to
    since you can’t double all of them. Plus that FSU defense is so potent
    you’d think Mickey Andrews was still there and 25 years younger. I just
    don’t see how any marginal team can possibly look get in and/or win a
    shootout with them.

    I saw Auburn in person this year once, in their only
    loss at LSU. They’re good, but they didn’t look like the dominant teams
    of their past in any way, shape, or form. Malzahan is a helluva coach,
    and him with a month to prepare is the only thing the Tigers have going
    for them. They’ll be really good for a really long time on The Plains,
    but it’s just a year too early, and an opponent that’s too strong. A
    beatdown is forthcoming.

  • The Prohibited Favorite’s Cheddar Bay 2013 Wild Card Playoff Picks:

    Essay: Clemson +3 over Ohio State

    This is as much as I’ve liked a football pick all year. The Buckeyes defense hasn’t faced anything close to an attack as good as what Clemson will bring tonight. Amazingly, Michigan’s is probably the closest thing. The Wolverines scored 41 on the Bucks and then went on to get crushed by Kansas State in the B-Dubbz Bowl. And tonight the Buckeyes will be missing two of their best defensive players, Spence and Roby.

    About that 42-41 loss to Michigan, one might suspect that the Clemson staff will take a page out of the Wolverines playbook here. As well as from the Spartans playbook that completely shut down the Buckeyes’ top offensive threat: http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10233141/how-clemson-tigers-contain-ohio-state-buckeyes-qb-braxton-miller-college-football

    And to overcome this kind of challenge so soon after suffering one of the most crushing losses imaginable, like Ohio State did in the Big Ten title game. With the BCS gone next year, Ohio State will never have another chance to take such an easy road to the national title game. It’s hard to overstate how badly they blew it v. Sparty. For a comp re: motivation, see what happened to Alabama against Oklahoma last night.

    On the other side, Clemson has had plenty of time to process its (100% predictable https://www.google.com/#q=Kanick+Jameis+Winston+bandwagon+ ) season crushing drubbing at the hands of Florida State. The only other team that beat them was South Carolina, who, like FSU, has elite talent up and down on both sides of the ball. A season can be salvaged in a big way here for the Tigers with a win over an overrated high profile program like Ohio State, would be a nice bookend to their season opening win over Georgia, and would also mark their first ever BCS bowl win.

    Urban Meyer was great when he could recruit kids from the south to play at Florida. I don’t at all buy the notion that this is something he’ll be able to transfer to Columbus at anything close to the same level. The Buckeyes never did pay for how bad they did T Peezy, did they?

    24 game winning streak, 2 game losing streak. Woody Hayes punching the hell out of some ghost tonight wherever he is.

    * * * * *

    NFL Wild Card Picks (I’ll write more about these tomorrow morning but had to get these in before the 7PM deadline.)

    Chiefs +2.5 over Colts (This would have been my essay if not for Clemson.)

    Saints +2.5 over Eagles

    Chargers +7 over Bengals

    Packers +2.5 over Niners

    *****

    BCS Title Game Pick

    Auburn +8.5 over Florida State

    Merry Playoffs, y’all. So much damn good football.

    • Biff T. Financial

      I think that the over is the play in this game, but I cannot argue with your reasoning for taking Clemson (esp. with Buckeyes defensive injuries, shortcomings). Nice write-up.

    • Capitalgg

      Comparing Michigan v. Ohio St. to Michigan v. K-St. is a bit disingenuous considering the notable absence of Dev Gardner (or at least the substitution of Shane Morris) in The B-Dubs Bowl .

      That said I’m on Clemson tonight simply because the OSU defense that is already mighty struggly will be without their 2nd and 4th best defenders (and #5 has been gone for a while). Just too much to overcome against a good offense.

      Take the over, because no one will stop anyone tonight. But Tahj Boyd and crew probably get the extra possession they need. Take the over, take the points.

      • That’s fair, I had completely forgotten that Gardner didn’t play in the B-Dubbs Bowl (didn’t watch the game). Anyway, the point is/was still a good one. The Clemson O is/was on a significantly higher level than Michigan’s and tOSU couldn’t stop Michigan at all.

    • A quick write-up on today’s NFL Wild Card Picks:

      Chiefs +2.5 over Colts: Yes, the Colts have beaten a lot of good teams this season, but that was the regular season (and before they lost Reggie Wayne). Yes, the Colts have the better quarterback in this game, almost certainly by far. Neither of these factors are underappreciated in this point spread. What is underappreciated in this point spread is that the Chiefs have been off the gas pedal for most of the last six weeks after they took their second loss of the season (to the Chargers) and settled in as a lock Wild Card team. Last week, pretty much all their starters rested while the backups played a hell of a game (against the Chargers again) and one has to think that locker room is rightfully feeling good about its chances today. Luck will get his one day, but I doubt the year of panicking to become the second team in three yars to blow a first-round pick on Trent Richardson is the year for the Colts.

      Saints +2.5 over Eagles: I don’t think the “Saints on the road” angle could be more overblown. Most of New Orleans’ losses (5, all on the road) were to excellent teams (Panthers, Seahawks, Pats (before NE’s defense was ravaged by injuries)) and in the Saints’ worst loss, to the Rams, they were victimized by a surprise onside kick try and two first quarter interceptions by Brees. It happens. The Eagles have been running way hot but against mostly garbage competition in the heat of a garbage division race. They haven’t beaten a single playoff team this season (the Seneca Wallace/Scott Tolzien-led Packers don’t count), and lost 48-30 to the damn Vikings (playing without Adrian Peterson!) only three weeks ago in the middle of this garbage division race. The week 16 destruction of the Bears was impressive, but it’s hard for me to believe this is a team that can beat the Saints in the playoffs just yet. Dallas used a really impressive scheme to bottle up the Eagles attack last week and I suspect that will be a useful blueprint for the Saints this week. The Eagles linebackers rate rather terribly in pass coverage so Colston, Sproles, Jimmy Graham and Co. should be as much of a nightmare as ever. Also, Foles and Brees went to the same high school — how much do you think the youngster, in his first playoff start, really believes he’s going to get over on the legend he grew up idolizing? I see a lot of sharp-types on Philly and I suspect a lot of this is due to an otherwise healthy sharp-type aversion to missing out on winning with the next hot thing (Chip Kelly). Quite a bit too sharp for me, though. I said yesterday that the Chiefs would have been my essay if not for the Clemson lock but thinking about it this morning I’d go with the Saints. Like this one a lot. Also like the idea of the Saints returning to Seattle next week for one that really counts.

      Sunday’s games are much tougher, IMO.

      Chargers +7 over Bengals: Holding my nose on this one. Might be my downfall here but I don’t have the stomach to lay a touchdown with a team (from Cincinnati, no less) that hasn’t won a playoff game in 25 years. When the Bengals beat the Chargers 17-0 earlier this season SD was missing some key pieces, including LT King Dunlap. Cincy probably has the most talented roster in the AFC field but has never shown an ability to consistently get the most out of its resources (this is a team that was relatively owned by the Browns even before Geno Atkins went on the IR). The Bengals’ Week 14 thrashing of the Colts was impressive but Indy was already a lock for the division title and a wild card slot by then, and again, it was the regular season. Been impressed with Mike McCoy this season, hoping he can scheme something up to stay within a touchdown.

      Packers +2.5 over Niners: Fully expecting the Niners to win this game and win the Super Bowl as I predicted in the preseason after they hired the Mangenius as secret head coach, but very few give Green Bay to stand a chance in this one. Just like it was impossible to see Oklahoma stay within 20 of Alabama on Thursday night (before the game started), it’s impossible to see a battered Packers D slowing a team that’s averaged 450+ ypg against its defense over three games in the last two seasons. Expecting this to even out a bit. Niners win by one or two points here.

    • zarathustra

      If I remember correctly you invested in Florida St futures early in the season. How much of this auburn pick is just IRL hedge (with a pretty fat middle opportunity) and how much is legit belief in auburn?

      • I feel strongly that Auburn covers this number and has a chance to win the game. It’s FSU’s first real test of the year and they’re coming off a month-plus of being told the title is theirs while everybody’s calling Auburn a fluke. Auburn isn’t as talented but with the right schemes I think they’re talented enough. Gotta like Mazahn over Jimbo on that. I’d be playing Auburn even if not for the FSU futures play but admittedly I haven’t dug too deeply into this one because it’s an easy hedge.

        • zarathustra

          Thanks! I think you’re right.

          • Any other reason(s) why?

          • zarathustra

            No. My main thing was gus over jimbo and quality of competition. And that auburn seems to have lady luck in their corner. It isn’t a perfect comparison by any means, but it kind of reminds me of Miami/Ohio st. I was just curious because I know how much you liked Winston and the noles from the start of the season. I have been in these type of hedge situations and know how it can play with your mind a little bit. I was leaning auburn anyway, but since you were spot on about the noles all year I am definitely following you here.

  • CLEVTA

    And now I am just seeing this. 6-0 Bama picks in cheddar last night? Ouch. Motivation motivation motivation

    • a damn disgrace on my part. i mean i lost on okst vs okla three weeks ago and watched trevor knight play great. just ignored that bit of data. oof.

      the performances of okla, msu, duke, ttu change the calculus on relative conference strength. acc/b1g/big12 up; sec/pac12 down.

  • CLEVTA

    First off great season everybody and thanks to Kanick for organizing. I would’ve helped as an admin but would’ve been tough collecting the picks while daydreaming on south beach this week. Good luck to the playoff contestants.

  • On the Really Big Show today, Tony Rizzo went out of his way to say that he is not a gambling man, but was sure that there’s no way that Alabama won’t beat Oklahoma by at least 20 tonight.

    • now there’s a scouting report you can use. in reverse of course, but most useful.

      • Guest

        It sealed the deal for me, for sure.

  • Capitalgg

    I believe this to be all for tonight… Email me if you think i missed your Sugar Bowl pick.

  • Capitalgg

    Cheddar pick for pateslvrblk

    Essay pick:

    ***Alabama -15 over Oklahoma

    There are many reasons I like Alabama tonight but if I had to pick one it’s that defense wins this time of year.  The Tide has a great one (love CJ Moseley), the Sooners haven’t seen one.

    I was surprised to find that Baylor’s defense was rated a top five prior to last night’s game and we saw what happened against UCF.  I think that’s reflective of Big12 defense in general.  There would seem to be no way for Oklahoma to prepare for the top SEC defense.  Kirby Smart was widely thought of as the top DC in the country before Auburn and even now, he’s probably second only to MSU’s Pat Narduzzi.  Note too that the Sooners only managed 12 points against Baylor.  While I realize Blake Bell was Oklahoma’s QB that game… twelve points against Baylor.

    I’m also a believer in Nick Saban.  Some may point to his 8-6 bowl record as evidence that he has a problem in big games but… there’s also four national championships.  Besides, Bob Stoops is 7-7 in bowls.

    • Capitalgg

      Picks for pateslvrblk
      Chiefs

      Eagles

      Chargers

      Niners

      Florida state

  • Capitalgg

    Concierge

    Gimme Bama tonight

    • Capitalgg

      Concierge

      Kansas City +2.5

      Eagles -2.5

      Bengals -7

      Niners -2.5 Essay

      FSU – 8.5

      This game to me comes down to Defense. One teams plays it and the other
      doesn’t. People keep saying the weather will be a huge edge for GB and
      I’m just not buying it. Kaepernick is playing alot better right now and I
      thought that Rodgers looked a little bit rusty last week. GB is lucky
      to even be in this spot. SF was in the super bowl last year and they
      have redemption on their minds. SF should also have some big success on
      the ground with Gore and company.. look for SF to win 28-14.

  • Capitalgg

    “A Grim and Certain Death” for acto

    The Alabama defense passes both the “sassisisicks” test as Dave Letterman would say, as well as the once important acto eyeball test.   Oklahoma is not in the same league as Alabama, they are not even in the same conference, the SEC may be even better than the MAC.
    Deciding between Blake Bell and Trevor Knight is certainly the lesser of two weevils.  (Old cotton pickers joke.)   Either way, AJ McGirlfriend has this advantage by a long shot.
    Oklahoma only has to lose by 16 points, they gave up 36 points to the Little Sisters of the Poor quarterbacked by the slightly less dog inspired Clot McChips jr.
    The only reason that Texas does not fall into the Gulf of Mexico is because Oklahoma sucks!
    Also please note that “Big Game Bob” is Robert Horry, not Bob Stoops.
    Bob Stoops employed this guy Mike St— Mike Something to fix their ailing defense.
    This Mike Stoo-something guy has created a defense that should stop AJ McGirlfriend and the Alabama passing attack, well, mainly because Alabama will get at least a couple of hundred yards rushing.   Alabama could bring back Trent Bitchardson and even he would run roughshod over the Oklahoma defense.

    • Is this an essay pick or just a regular one?

    • Capitalgg

      ACTO

      ***bonus*** Alabama -15
      KC +2.5

      NO +2.5
      SD +7

      SF -2.5
      Auburn +8.5

  • Capitalgg

    Kanick
    ***Essay pick***
    Bama -15 vs. Oklahoma, New Orleans.

    Was doing my research on this game and saw this on covers:

    Wait a sec.  

    Bama’s troubles with JFF and TreMason/ GregRobinson/ GusMalzahn/ NickMarshall means that Trevor Knight + Blake Bell will pose a notable problem for the 4th ranked defense?  My goodness that’s a reach.  In fact that’s not what I’m seeing at all.  I’m seeing a Bama defense that didn’t give up more than 10 points to any team not Auburn, LSU, or TAMU.  Ok, Dak Prescott gave Bama some trouble in Starkville on their way to losing 20-7.  Trevor Knight ≠ Dak Prescott.

    McCarron will be solid as usual, soph WR Amari Cooper’s draft stock hasn’t yet gotten traction yet but it will as he’s a prototype Bama-athlete.  It’s good to have 6’7″ tight end which Bama does (Vogler).  Sooners are suspect against the pass and I expect McCarron will stay away from mistakes and keep the Sooners from stacking their line for the run and this presents the real two-headed monster to watch for:  TJ Yeldon + Kenyan Drake.  They’ll run behind a big (315 avg lbs) and skilled o-line and over Oklahoma’s undersized front four (avg 270 lbs).  I think they’re in for 250 yards will wear down Oklahama’s.  

    15 is a horrible number to cover but Bama is 3rd in red zone offense, Sooners are 113th in r.z. defense.  They covered 14 against LSU, 28 against Tennessee, 30 against Arkansas.  Missed their covers against MissySt and Auburn but we now know MissySt and Auburn are really good.

    Ultimately the Tide will out-class the Sooners.  Saban will write the score he wants.

    • HitTheHorns

      Kanick not writing an essay on Auburn. Mind. Blown.

    • Capitalgg

      Kanick

      so last night happened… day-umm. how’d you all like that data
      point on okla/bama respective red zone statistics? that was a peach.
      ok moving on:

      at colts -2.5 chiefs
      houston
      and hali may or may not play but even if they do, they’re banged up.
      like any top tier qb, pressuring luck is key to win and chiefs’ two top
      pass rushers aren’t 100%.

      at eagles -2.5 saints
      did
      some pff looking at the saints secondary as pertains to stopping
      eagles’ top rush offense. vaccaro is a significant loss; he grades out
      3rd among safeties in run defense. (tj ward was #1.) my guy keenan
      lewis, turns out, is like 85th in run defense (although with only two
      missed tackles). (btw, skrine led all CBs with 20 missed tackles.)
      since i think the key will be eagles running on saints defense, it’s
      hard to back the saints when they’re missing their main second level run
      stopper.

      chargers +7 at bengals
      cincy
      rates high in pass defense, but the pass rush is diminished since
      atkins got injured. as in the chiefs/colts game, you gotta hurry rivers
      who is having a great year (3rd in pff ranks). and i just don’t trust
      dalton.

      niners -2.5 at packers
      it’s
      going to be fricking freezing (dr. evil voice) in green bay and that
      means run game and specifically run blocking. was surprised to find
      niners rated 2nd is run blocking; pack is 29th in run defense.

      auburn +8.5 fsu
      after
      sec losses to b1g (uga to neb) and big12 (bama to okla.. (crap)), the
      luster of the auburn’s two highlight wins is greatly diminished. at the
      same time, unc+duke bowl perfs say acc not that bad. all adds up to an
      fsu romp. so i’m on auburn because of course i’m on auburn.

      in real life, also playing Clemson, OkSt, Houston, BallU.

  • Capitalgg

    HitTheHorns:
     
    Essay: ***Alabama -15***
     
    I love the line move, especially with it hitting 17 (a key number). Double-digit favs have not done so well this bowl season, but these things tend to even out. Alabama has been the best team in the country all season. Oklahoma slid into the BCS because it won its last game (miracle finish) and there was really no one else to choose.  Bob Stoops is 1-4 against the SEC in bowl games. Alabama should crush them for a few reasons: Get the taste of the Auburn game out of their mouth, AJ McCarron is playing to be the next QB of the Browns, and why not do this versus a storied program such as Oklahoma? Bob Stoops is known for not showing up for big games, and this team has nowhere near the talent that his past teams have had. Being on the same side as the public + that team is a double digit favorite goes against my picks all season.  But going against the grain is what wins championships.

    • Capitalgg

      HitTheHorns:

      Florida State -8.5
      Colts -2.5
      Eagles -2.5
      Packers +2.5
      Chargers +7

  • Pouring one out for Chucky C. and Architect Art.

    Also, there is a huge prize for finishing at the top of the Cheddar Bay regular season standings. It’s called the number one seed in the playoffs.

  • HitTheHorns

    Kanick, do you need us to “write” a full essay, or just assign one game as our essay pick?

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Sudden death – so exciting. How the heck did you know the cutoff would be 75?

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Do we still pick 6 this week? How many are collegiate and how many are NFL?

    • this week you’re picking six: all four NFL games, FSU/Auburn, and any of the other bowls for your sixth. be sure to email your picks to capgg/zara before 7pm friday.

  • Petefranklin

    I wonder who this guy works for? ABC news/ Chicago trader wins football handicapping contest

Skip to toolbar