#CheddarBay FINAL WEEK!


The final all-play is Michigan State +5.5 vs. Stanford in the Rose Bowl.

LATE LINE:  Packers -3 at Bears.

Final all-play is MSU +5.5 vs. Stanford.

Rose Bowl, 5pm New Year’s Day, ABC.

The final week’s lines are posted here.  These run through the January 1 bowl games.  Thus the end of the regular season is New Year’s Day and the final game is the Baylor/UCF Fiesta Bowl.

Playoff info.

Just want to clarify some items surrounding the playoffs here.  The Cheddar Bay Playoffs have always consisted of four weeks to determine our winner:  Wildcard week (30 pts); Divisional week (25 pts); Championship week (25 pts); Super Bowl (25 pts).

Fine tuning for this year.

This year due to some odd spacing on the bowl games we’re going to fine tune Wildcard week, everything else will stay the same:

  1. Wildcard week will be worth 35 points;
  2. We will bump Wildcard week to SIX picks (four NFL, BCS, and choice of any of the other bowl games);
  3. Any of these games may be your essay pick (worth ten points);
  4. Picks will be due by 7:30pm Friday (an hour before Orange Bowl kickoff);
    1. Exception:  If you wish to pick the Sugar Bowl, that pick needs to be into the surrogate admin by 7:30pm THURSDAY.

If you’re in the playoff chase, take note of this change.  I’ll follow up with an email affirming this as well.

“Top eleven and ties.”

Screen Shot 2013-12-28 at 2.11.48 PM

It was an exciting final weekend last week.

The top eleven and ties make the playoffs.  BUT.  All those in a tie for the final slot are in a sudden-death position.  The low pickers from the sudden-death group will be culled until the final playoff field is at eleven.  E.g., if there are five tied for 10th place, we drop the low men week by week until the playoff pool is at 11.  If there is still a tie after Wildcard week, then the sudden-death carries on to Divisional week, and so forth.

Projected cut:  75.

That’s Kanick’s projected cut but we shall see.  For the curious here is last year’s final standings.  It was pretty epic to have nine guys within one point of the the cut line.

Another four way.

Congrats to Pate, DQuatts, CWonder, and Rickman on their seven pointers last week.  If I may, I’d like to acknowledge Frowns’ brilliant foresight in establishing the weeklies.  DQ and CW are out of the playoff hunt, Rickman is a longshot, and Pate might could do something but also a longshot.  Yet these four slug it out every week and so it’s positively excellent that there is a reward.  No $47 isn’t huge; yes you’d love to find $47 in that suit you haven’t worn in two years.  The weeklies are 30% of our kitty and have been paid out to 13 players so far.  I’d say that’s a good program.


Sean Mannion


Placeholder for anyone to throw in early picks.  ChuckKoz is in for Oregon State -3 tonight in Hawai’i and I’m going to join him.  Back later with playoff info and data on the final week.

  • for acto:
    i received a pre-kickoff email from acto wishing to change his all-play to MSU.

  • USFCollin

    Here. We. Go.

    Michigan State +5.5, Baylor -16.5.

    Go time!!

    • You’re risking your playoff status on the Prohibited Favorite getting collared with the Virgin Lobsterita this week. BALLSY.

  • p_forever

    hi happy new year! here are my last 2 picks and cheddar bay all-play

    standford -5.5 sparty***
    UCF +16.5 baylor

    ugh i hate that my last cheddar bay lock of the year is stanford. but i can’t help it. there are a lot of reasons why straight up x’s and o’s analysis fails when it comes to bowl games. people seem to think that MSU is going to win the rose bowl for those sorts of reasons – big ten pride, first time in rose bowl in over 25 years, etc. etc. etc. that might make some sense if stanford were acting like OSU – a team that obviously is playing in a bowl game that it would rather not play in. but MSU isn’t walking into a stanford team that is somehow sad or crabby that it’s in the rose bowl. and the non x and o reasons that influence the outcomes of bowl games line up just as strongly in stanford’s favor as in MSU’s – stanford is exactly where it wanted to be on new year’s day, they are playing for 2 in a row, etc. etc. that means MSU is in big trouble, because the x’s and o’s line up strongly in stanford’s favor. super gross, because i would love to see MSU win, but i don’t think they keep it all that close.

  • Received from Squeaky via email:


  • USFCollin

    Gimme TAMU -12. Those fans are weird… but Duke just has no way to contain JFF or Mike Davis. Hate getting backdoored here, but gotta roll with it.


    6. Va Tech +7

  • HitTheHorns

    Stanford -5.5

    Georgia -9

  • GRRustlers

    Final Pick:

    6) UCLA (-7) over VT – I was worried that UCLA would be the PAC12 team that would no show the bowl game but thanks Arizona State!

  • Nick

    Kanick: I’ll take Stanford and South Carolina to finish off my slate. Mainly because watching the OBC on the sidelines just makes me smile.

    Thanks so much for your hard work to make this contest possible.

  • bupalos

    Jim get something up on Chud ASAP so I can disagree with it. Just to give you a bead, I think it’s a refreshing example (ala Richardson) of pulling the plug on something essentially defective despite the potential marketing disaster. And this time it has the further virtue of showing they can and will admit they were wrong.

    • lol. i would but.
      no i’m sure i’ll get something up.

  • clayII

    Cowboys for my mandatory NFL
    Bowls will follow, and bowl game selections.


    Stanford $$$ (essay coming shortly)

  • squeekycleen

    SInce I have to put in an NFL play, will add:

    Eagles (Regular)

  • HitTheHorns

    Also added SD Chargers -9.5 via twitter.

  • Matt Borcas

    Cards +1.5 over Niners
    Chargers -9.5 over Chiefs
    Eagles -6.5 over Cowboys
    Packers -3 over Bears
    Navy -6.5 over MTSU

    Essay on Oregon/Texas coming later

    • whoops, give me the all play. dropping navy till directed otherwise/

  • HitTheHorns

    Seattle Seahawks – 10.5

  • p_forever

    hi there i will take the seahawks and the pats please – oh and a few bowl games too – essay and all play coming next.

    patriots -9 bills
    seahawks -10.5 rams
    south carolina +2 wisconsin
    LSU -7 iowa

  • bupalos

    cards, chargers, raiders

  • oxr

    Alright, time to determine whether or not I’ll remain above the red line. If I fail to do so I will point to last year’s finish and call it “consistency”.

    Earlier: Steelers -7 over Browns and Panthers -6.5 over Falcons

    All-Play: Stanford -5.5 over Michigan State

    Packers -3 over Bears why not
    Broncos -11.5 over Raiders

    Essay: Eagles -6.5 over Cowboys – Five favorites in week 17 divisional games, for the love of God. Sadly, these are the meaningful games we’re left with (and my alternative is flipping a bunch of coins while looking at the college bowl schedule). The Denver game should be significant throughout (assuming the Patriots handle their business) and I think Manning is going to go for some more records. Packers/Bears is a tossup but if Rodgers finds his form he’s worth the three. The biggest mismatch still yielding a single-digit spread is Eagles O/Cowboys D, though, which is one of those 2-vs-30 DVOA matchups I look for. Seen some references to how the Cowboys shut down Philly earlier in the year, so I guess the game plan should be to try to give Nick Foles another concussion. Absent that, I expect points aplenty, because Foles has been an absolute machine these last few weeks. I am actually a fan of Kyle Orton, but his best years are probably behind him and he definitely counts as a question mark here. Dez Bryant has back problems. All the Eagles D should have to do is slow them down enough, and Orton isn’t going to have much room for error. Weird things can always happen in a game like this, but I guess the bet I’m making is for only a small-to-moderate number of weird things to happen today.

  • mrickman

    broncos -11.5

    ole miss -3
    ucla -7
    nebraska +9
    stanford -5.5
    arizona state -14

    there’s just something about texas tech — hot starts, poor finishes — and while the red raiders were able to beat minnesota in their bowl last year, they aren’t in the same universe as far as asu is concerned. it’s easy to make jokes about todd graham and dream jobs, but he’s a pretty good coach, and quietly the sun devils put together one of the better years no one really bothered to pay attention to. they’ve got an elite defender in will sutton, a decent but not great quarterback who shouldn’t have trouble against texas tech’s mediocre secondary and some real weapons offensively. jaelen strong has an nfl build and marion grice is a touchdown machine. this thing could be a blowout and quickly.

  • Jeff Rich

    Niners (-1.5) at CARDINALS
    UCLA (-7) vs Va Tech
    TEXAS A&M (-12) vs Duke
    OREGON (-13.5) vs Texas
    ***NORTH TEXAS (-6.5) vs Unlv***
    Home team in CAPS, right? For the first time since 1959, the Mean Green are playing in something that isn’t the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, and it’s about 40 minutes from their Denton campus to the Heart of Dallas Bowl, so they are a real home team here. UNT plays defense, their losses have come at the hands of bowl-eligible teams, and UNLV is going to wreak of being happy to be there.
    Michigan State (+5.5) vs STANFORD


    5. Cards +2.5

    • just +1.5 here, fyi.

      • CLEVTA

        Plz chane my Arizona pick to SD thx

  • Petefranklin

    Detroit and Tampa for one point each

  • oxr

    Coming up on the deadline for 1 PM games so I’d better drop a couple in here…

    Steelers -7 over Browns
    Panthers -6.5 over Falcons

    More later.

  • HitTheHorns


    Essay ***Steelers -7***

    Browns have gotten a lot of respect from Vegas this year, but they haven’t backed it up the past few weeks. Sharps have been on them the last three weeks, only to be let down by a defense that has proven to be overrated. Big Ben is playing his best football in a long time, not taking a lot of hits, and getting rid of the ball quickly. PIT is -9 on
    pinnacle as of 11:54AM, so I am happy with the number we get.

  • Nick

    AP: Stanford -5.5
    Steelers -7
    Navy -6.5

    ESSAY: Vikings -3 vs Lions

    I think Leslie Frazier is a good coach, he got Christian Ponder’d this year. Management wanted to see what they had in Ponder, and now they know. Vikings have a similar feel to the Browns this year in handling Quarterbacks, and had each team gone with the right guy from the start; they’d be fringe playoff contenders. The Vikings players truly believe this, and so I think they will put forth a good effort for their coach at home in the last game of the year. Meanwhile the Lions have defined crash and burn, and I’m hearing some late tweets that Calvin is not playing. Schwartz will be fired after this game win or lose, and needs to spend his offseason doing yoga.

    • Nick

      FYI: you have vikings as a win…as much as I would love to have those 3 pts for the essay, I do not believe the vikes covered today.

      • Thank you! (Vikes were dogs?) I’m sure it would have been caught, but still much appreciated.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Changing Steelers to my essay

    Haden’s absence has something to do with it, but this is a Steelers team that needs the game vs. a Browns team that needs Dr. Kevorkian. We know it would take a miracle for Pitt to make the playoffs but either way the Steelers have reasons to show up here and the Browns have few. This defense has crumbled and now gets to chase Brown and Sanders with Leon McFadden! The Browns having five Pro Bowlers gets all the LOLs and more comedy is coming. Lombardi has wanted to lose and today, again, the boys oblige by 10+

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      Ravens +5.5 as well

      • FlyHighCharlieFrye

        My final two

        Georgia Tech +3
        South Carolina+2

  • pateslvrblk

    Bengals-5.5 over Ravens
    Stanford -5.5 over Michigan
    UCLA -7 over Virginia Tech
    ***Navy -6.5 over Middle Tennessee

    When college recruiting letters came in for Navy’s Quarterback Keenan Reynolds, his first opportunity was Middle Tennessee, a school 30 miles from his home in Nashville Tennessee. Reynolds thought he had a good tryout but never heard back from coach Rick Stockstill. Now three years later, he’s playing against Middle Tennessee in the Armed Forces Bowl. Reynolds is a disciplined player and proving Stockstill made a mistake will not be an influence in his game, however it would make winning that much sweeter. Reynolds also knows friends and family back home will most assuredly be paying close attention to this game because of Navy’s opponent. Go Navy!


    Pats -9
    Ravens +5.5
    9ers -1.5
    Panthers -6.5

    • essaying Sparty/Stanford?

      • CLEinMPLS

        I will either do that or switch out my Oregon pick and essay the dallas game tonight.

  • Katie O.

    Unfortunately, I can say for sure this will be my final Cheddar essay of the year. After this, I will simply be doing the best possible job of not spreading my amazing ability to lose picks against the spread to my (hopefully) playoff bound hubby-to-be. If he ever makes any more picks this week, that is.

    I’m going to spend today’s essay reflecting on my picks and pull out some teams that worked out for me at least twice and see if I can keep the magic going with them for at least one more game.

    Final all-play – Stanford -5.5 over the Trojans: Pre-Michigan State linebacker being suspended I was already going to take Stanford but that was just the icing on the cake. Some other notes on this game, I don’t think Michigan’s O will fare well against Stanford’s 3-4 base defense. Hogan seems like a really consistent quarterback to me, I haven’t seen too much of Stanford unless I picked them in Cheddar and there was never a moment when I was watching Stanford that Hogan did something and I thought, “I cannot believe he just did that.” For me, that’s an important characteristic in a quarterback. I have a grander theory of smart vs. dumb quarterbacks, and Hogan is certainly the latter. Not sure that necessarily makes him better (being intelligent enough to recognize that 11 guys are trying to ruin your career every play is not always a plus) but I feel comfortable with smart QBs. I’ve picked Stanford to cover three times in Cheddar this year and they’ve come through twice, the last two times. Let’s keep it rolling.

    Steelers -7 over Browns **essay**

    That’s right. I took the Steelers four times this year and they did me good three times. I haven’t even watched a Browns game since the final home game. Sorry, not sorry. I’m already looking forward to next year. I have developed a soft-spot for the Steelers and I wish them well in their slim-to-none odds of being a playoff team this year. I’m always careful to never discount them, no matter how old, worn out, or how little their draft picks work out. I cannot be convinced that even the Browns care about this game. It’s hard to get pumped about “ruining someone’s playoff chances” when they did a good job of ruining them, themselves and you ruined your own in a big, bold, bad way. When I reflect on my feelings about the Browns year, what comes to mind is the classic, “I’m not mad, I’m disappointed.” I just hate to be the Browns fan saying, “we’re going to be really good next year, I can tell.” The look one gets is a sad mixture of pity, disbelief, and you’re-so-fulfilling-the-stereotype. The major “decisions” however, I’m happy about. (Sorry, I feel like I’m using a lot of air bunnies today.) I still like the Richardson trade (pending who we take with the pick) and I support the decision to see Weeden out. We just had to know, for abso-freaking-lutely sure. I’m not sure if I would call not trading Gordon a decision, but I’m glad it wasn’t one – intentionally or not.

    Iowa +7 vs. LSU

    I picked LSU, one of my favorite teams twice and they couldn’t cover either game. This hurt. What hurt even worse was the amount of times I did not use them in Cheddar and they did exactly what I thought they would do. Seven points seems like a big enough spread for a New Years Day bowl game that I feel like it’ll be close. Even if I couldn’t tell you a darn thing about Iowa besides their colors. Yellow and black, right? Must be the bumblebees. Or like the Steelers when they dress up as 1930s bank robbers.

    Packers +3 vs. Bears

    It pains me to take this, but the Bears are three and oh contributors to my Cheddar score. This is kind of a win-win for me. I want them to win but if they don’t, and lose by more than three, I’ll have the comfort of some meaningless Cheddar points to cheer me up. That makes sense, right?

    Dallas Cowboys +6.5 vs. Eagles

    Eagles disappointed me the two times I tried to be on their side. One of my favorite things about teams playing against backup QBs is that there just isn’t that much film to watch. Go get’em Orton.

    Rice +7 vs. Mississippi State

    Rice is one for one on my Cheddar board and I think they should be two for two. I also wanted to get another college team up here. Let’s just say I wasn’t picking any MAC teams – best of luck to you Ball State. I also like the potential of Texas over Oregon but I can’t in good conscience pick a team with a McCoy at the helm. I remember watching a Texas series this year and immediately having two or three of those “I cannot believe he just did that” moments (as mentioned in the Stanford pick above) in reference to Case McCoy. So for as little as I think Oregon is going to care about that game, Case is going to suck even worse.

    Last but not least, a HUGE thank you to everyone who makes this possible – I cannot even fathom the labor of love that goes into such a contest. I’m constantly in awe of those around me here. Thank you to everyone for the essays that helped sound just a smidge more intelligent at the water cooler and especially to those who made me laugh, For as much of a bust as this season was points-wise for me, I think I learned bunches and the one Cheddar-happy hour was beyond a blast. Best of luck to anyone who makes the playoffs and I’ll see ya’ll in the chase next year.

  • The Prohibited Favorite’s final week picks:

    BYU +3 over Washington: (L) In the first quarter, BYU, down by a touchdown, went for it on 4th and 2 from their own 20 and got it. That took a lot of the sting out of this one.

    Cincy +2.5 over UNC: (L) Was drinking with my cousin when we decided to put this one in as a time killer for before we had to go to a family thing. This is what we get for trying to murder time. Anyway, North Carolina is still the worst place on earth. http://www.globalresearch.ca/pork-s-dirty-secret-the-nation-s-top-hog-producer-is-also-one-of-america-s-worst-polluters/13479

    Bears +3 over Packers: Aaron Rodgers should be banned from the playoffs for life for the discount double check commercials. I want to fade an overreaction to his return as well as last week’s Bears/Eagles game.

    Texas +13.5 over Oregon: The numbers say Oregon rolls here by 20 but I don’t expect the Ducks to be so fired up for this one while the Longhorns will be going all out for Mack Brown’s last game as head coach. Also, it’s the Alamo Bowl and this whole season was like the Alamo for Brown. Wait. Anyway, Nike is the worst. The Chips Junior McCoy factor is the only thing keeping me from essaying this.

    Stanford -5.5 over Michigan State: The Anachronism Bowl!

    ESSAY: UCF +16.5 over Baylor: UCF’s only loss was by three to South Carolina. They did have some nailbiters against some terrible teams (Temple, UCF, SMU), but playing up or down to competition is a real thing. UCF beat an excellent Louisville team and I don’t think they could be that much worse than the Oklahoma State team that throttled Baylor in November. O’Leary can coach, Bortles can play QB, has some receivers to throw to, and the Knights can play a little bit of D. Kansas State is another team that can play a little bit of D, and they kept within 10 of the Bears without being able to play any O. Ok. St. is the only team that Baylor played all season that could play both a little D *and* a little O. Also, “God hates fags” is an official part of Baylor’s curriculum. Two-plus touchdowns looks insane here. Fiesta!

    Happy new year! See y’all in 2014 and the Cheddar Bay playoffs.

  • Concierge

    Jets and Stanford to wrap up this week.

  • architectartvandelay

    Jets +6.5 @ Dolphins

    Panthers -6.5 @ Falcons Carolina wants/needs to win vs Falcons who are playing on a short week

    Chargers -9.5 vs Chiefs

    UCLA -7 vs VaTech

    AP: Stanford -5.5

    Essay: Steelers -7 vs Browns I need to hit my essay so I will go with what I think I know best. There is really not much analysis needed as we have seen these games play out year after year. The only question is why do we keep doing this to ourselves? If I am going to have another off season where I question why I subject myself to this year after year they may as well give me something in return. So Browns work your magic and let the Steelers steamroll you and help me get into the Cheddar Bay playoffs. Of course there is only way this works out which is Cundiff kicks a 50 yrd fg to push the final margin of defeat from 9 to 6.

  • for Bevilacqua

    Browns +7 over Steelers
    Lions +3 over Vikings
    Eagles -6.5 over Cowboys
    Bears +3 over Packers

    Sorry about emailing picks. On the road and the easiest way was email. I’ll post the rest of the picks later.

  • FTCMikeD

    Final Week FTCMikeD

    BGSU (loss)

    *****Panthers -6.5 over @Falcons No essay week
    @Bengals -5.5 over Ravens
    @Bears +3 over Packers
    @Patriots -9 over Bills

    AP: Stanford -5.5 over Sparty in Rose Bowl

  • Earlier: ORST (essay win), USU (win), BGSU (loss).
    Today: Jags, Cards.
    All-play: MSU.

  • thatsfine

    I can’t thank JK enough for running this most excellent competition. This is my first year playing, and my (realistic) goal was to still be alive in the final week. Happily, this is the case, though I need a Lobsterfest and a few people in front of me to forget to submit their picks for me to make the playoffs.

    Pitt -4 (win)
    Stanford -5.5 / MSU Washington +3.5 / Giants (essay)
    The Giants should not be laying points to anybody – not at home, not on the road, not to anybody for any reason. Eli and the Giants have been a complete disaster. Especially Eli, having thrown something like 80 interceptions this year. And, these haven’t been interceptions bouncing off of hands or because he has a couple of rookie receivers. They have been BAD interceptions. Poor throws, poor decisions, completely missing receivers. The kind where the announcers still try to cover for him the way they did with Brett Favre, saying things like “that was a miscommunication” or “the receiver was supposed to be there”, or “The receiver has to learn to fight for that one”. Nope, Eli just sucks this year.
    Jags +11.5 / Colts
    Bills +9 / Pats
    Steelers -7 / Browns

  • harbaugh handshakes

    Niu (L)
    BGSU (L)
    GB -3 @CHI
    Saints -13 vs bucs
    Ap: Stanford -5.5
    Essay: Sf -1.5
    This was a tough pick for me because I really want the cards to make the playoffs but there are a few things working against them: first I have little doubt the saints are going to destroy the bucs at home with the playoffs on the line. It’s just what the saints do at home win big games by a lot of points. The home crowd will see this and that alone will take them out of the game. Secondly, the 49ers are really starting to play good football. I think they got distracted last week with the candlestick hoopla and won a nail biter over an Atlanta team that is playing much better football. I really like arians, wish he was in Cle, but the better team will win today.

  • For PETER M:
    Sorry my computer is acting strange on the road. Here in CLE.

    Here are the rest of my picks.

    NO Two teams needing wins to make the play offs, The Saints and Steelers, cannot be more thankful to be playing the Browns and Bucs.

    These two teams can snatch a loss from the jaws of victory on a consistent basis. They suck. These are the easiest picks all season long.

    Both organizations made big mistakes early with their QBs. If the Bucs knew that Josh Freeman had issues, they should have traded him during the off season.

    The Browns must have felt obligated to start Couch, er Frye, er Weeds at the beginning of the season. If Hoyer starts against the Fins, the season is different by 3-4 wins.

    Bad decisions make bad season.

  • TheKardiacKid

    Carolina -6.5
    Jags +11.5
    49ers -1.5
    AP Stanford -5.5
    Essay Steelers -7
    This week is the end of the road for me, it was a fun experience donating $100 to complete strangers. Well worth it. I gave it my best Browns try. So in my final week I thought it would be most appropriate to pick against the team who gave me the most success this year in the essay portion of the competition.

  • jdoepke

    Crunch time for yours truly to get into the playoffs. Lots of games and it was hard to narrow to these. Here goes:

    Navy -6.5
    Az St. -14
    Duke +12
    Bears +3
    Dolphins -6.5

    All Play and Essay Stanford -5.5
    I don’t see how Sparty keeps up with Stanford. They did well vs. the Buckeyes but if you look at the entire body of work they simply struggle to move the ball and score. I think this is a big step up in class for the B1G Champs and in the end Standord is too smart, too athletic, and too much to handle. Combine that with the fact that this line opened at 3 in most shops, was immediatly bet up to 4 – 4.5, Cheddar gets it at 5.5 but it is 6.5 now (some shops opened it at 7 and dropped due to where others opened, it probably climbs to 7 or 7.5 by game time. Oh and here’s the kicker, 57% of bets are on Sparty but line keeps climbing. One of those that makes you say hmmm? Stanford 31 – Mich St 13


    4. K St -4.5

    • Petefranklin

      I Shaat the bed but I tried really hard to hold it! Thanks for the info TA!!!!

  • Petefranklin

    Meeechigan for a single please.

    • Petefranklin

      My own votedown. The only team that effed me more than the Critters from up north were the rRaiders.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 18 Picks

    Picks (3-5 ALL NFL)

    3. Miami (-6.5) over NYJ – Less than a month ago the Dolphins won by 20 in New Jersey. Not much has changed. The Dolphins desperately need this and it looks like the Jets already saved Rex last week with news today that he appears to be safe.

    4 Cincy (-5.5) over Ravens – Because Cincy is just a different animal at home, would enjoy nothing more than officially ending the Ravens season, and on the off chance Buffalo pulls the upset they can enjoy a week off.

    5. (Essay) Saints (-13) over Tampa – Going back to the well here. Last year my final essay of the year was the Saints which was a loss to Carolina. Thinking this is a much better spot here for me this time. I kind of feel bad how this sets up for the Cards who might be sitting at home with an 11-5 record which is also why SF may be a sneaky good play for people on Sunday (especially 2nd half line) who watch the wind get sucked out of Arizona when the Saints go up big early. The Saints played much better last week on the road, especially defensively, vs a very good Carolina team and everything lines up for them nicely on Sunday.

    Saints are 7-0 at home. 6-1 ATS at home. 3-0 ATS when spread is between 7 and 13.5.

  • Collin

    Essay time! Gimme Louisville -3.5 over a terrible, exposed, and without Duke Johnson Miami Hurricanes. Believe me, I DESPISE giving Charlie Strong a chance to allow me to get backdoored and out of the playoffs in Cheddar Bay, but I just don’t see anyway Miami hangs around in this game. Stephen Morris has been solved by every defensive coordinator, and the ‘Canes are totally one-dimensional when they have the ball. Plus Louisville has about 13 guys at running back that are all talented (Michael Dyer is their third option? Really??) and can run a clock down late. Bridgewater has all the incentive in the world to shine tonight (you can bet the Texans will have scouts at this game), and there’s a significant talent gap between these two teams. Also, Bridgewater wanted to go to Miami… and they didn’t want him.

    By the way, if you’re not following @RussellAthBowl on Twitter, start now. It’s the best and funniest Twitter account in bowl game history, and actually apologized to me when I was in the stands at this game last year and couldn’t hear the bands because they didn’t mic the halftime properly. The guy that runs it is my social media hero. Also last year this was Logan Thomas and Va. Tech vs. Gary Nova and Rutgers in the rain at the AWFUL Citrus Bowl in Orlando. 20 punts. 13-10 Hokies win in OT. There’s a reason I’ll be on my couch this year…

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    This is an interesting week to do picks… many NFL games have no meaning (ahem, Giants – Redskins) yet NCAA bowl games are ony for bragging rights in their Bowl game.

    MSU +5.5 over Stanford
    Texas +13.5 over Oregon
    Texas A&M -12 over Duke
    Arizona St. -14 over Texas Tech
    Cowboys +6.5 over Eagles

    Essay: Giants -3.5 over Redskins

    It’s been a rough year for Big Blue. Their losing streak at the beginning dug themselves into a hole they couldn’t climb out of. Still, they look a lot better than the Redskins do right now. Next year’s NFC East could be theirs with a couple of adjustments – I’ll take that over a housecleaning (Redskins, Cowboys if they lose tomorrow night).


    I will take Oregon for my college pick. Will post my NFL picks tomorrow morning. Thanks for all your work this year, Kanick. I will definitely be back next year. And I love the “golden ticket” idea.


    Man I wish we were all allowed to hold and use one “golden ticket” pick worth 10 points for a game that we love. Everyone gets one and can only use it once all season. Would be fun to be holding it now!

    • I suggested that earlier this season, but I think it should be worth 6 points. A double essay. 10 is too many.

      • It would be really fun to see who’d hang on to theirs, and how well folks did on their “golden ticket” picks. I know I would have pushed on mine this year.

  • Wow, so many bad, bad bowl games.

    Green Bay -3 @ Chicago
    Philadelphia -6.5 @ Dallas
    Oregon -13.5 vs. Texas
    Baylor -16.5 vs. Central Florida
    Stanford -5.5 vs. Michigan State (Really want to pick Sparty as a thank you for saving the national title game … but can’t)
    Essay: Pittsburgh -7 vs. Cleveland

  • trashycamaro

    Michigan +4.5 over KSU

    • trashycamaro

      Changed to reflect the cheddar line. Big point and a half.

    • trashycamaro

      #1 College: Louisville over Miami

      #2 All Play/College: Stanford -5.5 over Michigan state

      #3 NFL: NYJ +6.5 over @MIA Sure, why not have fully half my essays this year be on the Jets. Lot of negativity down here in Miami about the Dolphins with no one really sure who to blame. As we saw first hand last week, the JETS are a team that can pounce on your weakness, and the DOPLHINS’ o-line inability to block anyone combined with Tannehill’s glacier-like, nay, Weeden-like release dooms him to leading the league in sacks taken. Wake could be in Geno’s face all day, but the JETS are solid on the o-line and should give Geno some time, and, more importantly, Ivory some holes to exploit. These are the kind of lines that I wanted to ride the Jets on all season. And Rex is not going anywhere (except maybe to find an offensive coordinator and a receiver or two).

      #4 NFL: GB -3.5 over @CHI

      #5 NFL: TB +13 over @NOLA

      #6 College: SCAR +2 over WIS

  • GRRustlers

    Week 18 Picks

    I’m going to slow play these picks this week to avoid the stress of last year sitting and waiting to clinch. Oh…and Belk Bowl…you can still fuck off.

    Pick #1 – Notre Dame (-14) over Rutgers – You would be hard pressed to find a team more disrupted by injuries than the Irish this year…well that and your QB cheating. Tommy Rees goes out in a big way vs a terrible Rutgers defense.

    Pick #2 – (AP) Stanford (-5.5) over Michigan State – If the NCAA wanted to make real money they would just give us the damn 16 team playoff so I don’t have to pretend I care about the damn Fight Hunger Bowl. That and if they did that this year I would put a nice wager on Stanford to win 4 games in a row in that setting.

    Couple NFL picks to come on Saturday night.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Stanford -5.5 over Michigan St. (All play)
    Cowboys +6.5 over Eagles ***
    Bengals -5.5 over Ravens
    Cardinals +1.5 over Niners
    Wisconsin -2 over South Carolina
    Duke +12 over Texas A&M

    *** In Orton We Trust. Actually not really but I think this line is over-inflated because of Philly’s big win over Chicago and the Romo injury. Philly hasn’t exactly been a
    giant killer any of this season. I’m cheering for them to get in the playoffs so the annual tradition of watching a better team knock them out (e.g. Niners this year) in a hyped playoff game. I’m just going against the public sentiment that the Cowboys are cooked without Romo. Wait, wasn’t everyone saying Romo was worthless not too long ago? If Orton can simply keep them in the game by not making mistakes, I think Dallas has enough to keep close and maybe even win.

    Good luck to those who make the playoffs. Last year’s wild ride in the playoffs made the entire season really worthwhile even if I finished 1 spot out of the benjamins. And thanks again for all the hard work, Kanicki. Cheers to you, friend.


    I dont see a single other syracuse pick anywhere in anyone’s picks below yet I see a (3) for the Cuse up in the cloud. what am I missing?

    • i weight the essay picks for three points.

      • CLEVTA

        ah gotcha. Learn something new everyday

        • Petefranklin

          I thought that was a space filler, now I know.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        jk, may I please swap my MSU pick over to Stanford?

        • Uh oh. What did the high white-placed soused horse tell you? And *WHEN* did it tell you?

          • actovegin1armstrong

            It told me that I am going to miss the playoffs again. All I had to do was just hover below average for the last 6 weeks, but my Icarus imitation came just as I predicted. I lost the ability to pick winners, but I became terrific at spotting a big loser.

          • Terrific? Is that what the “T” in “low T” stands for?

  • CleveLandThatILove

    (AP) Stanford -5.5
    BYU +3 Wash
    Rutgers +14 ND
    Kansas St. -4.5 Mich
    Wisconsin -2 S. Carolina

    • CleveLandThatILove

      I know I’m in the ‘snowball’s chance in hell’ section, but if you’re telling me there’s a chance…and I think I hit on 2 of my picks up there, so JK next time you’re in the spreadsheet can you add my picks? And thanks a million for manning the board so awesomely, again.

      ***Packers -3 Bears
      The stud is back, he’s only lost to the Bears 3 times ever (6 years, 11 games) and Randall Cobb has been activated and may get some playing time. (!!!!!). Giving Chicago 3 points at home won’t keep me away from this one. Lacey should have some fun with the Bears’ weak run defense. (BTW, the only Packer player even close to appearing in the silly Pro Bowl, like that matters.) Jay Cutler has beaten a Dom Capers defense only once in 8 attempts. Head to head, Rodgers wins the internal fortitude battle every time, even more so when the division title is on the line.

      This one should be fun and probably the only game worth watching today, for me at least (and for Nick of course, my NFC North bud).

      Happy New Year, everybody!

  • Nick

    I’ll take the Gophers tonight for 1 cheddar pt please.

  • Its Only Money

    I’ll get two in for tonight and then finish things off later.
    Minnesota -4 v Syracuse
    Washington -3 v BYU

    • Its Only Money

      @ NYG -3.5 v Washington
      Arizona -7.5 v Boston College

      All Play Stanford -5.5 v Michigan State

      Essay Carolina -6.5 @ Atlanta
      So this is it. I am laying my playoff chances on the Panthers. I need the essay win to have a chance at making the post-season in my first Cheddar Bay Challenge. It is good to see the last week of the season mean so much for a change. I mean this in more ways than just this little pick-em challenge. I believe only one spot in the NFL playoffs is finalized at this point, the Colts are locked into the 4th seed in the AFC, but that is it. For this reason, the Panthers need to come out and play hard. The Falcons are playing for nothing and have been for a while. I just don’t see Atlanta staying close today. They packed up a long time ago. Regardless of where I finish in the standings it has been fun picking games with you all in my first year. I hope to be alive for the playoffs, but look forward for 2014 regardless. Hopefully the Browns will have more to play for in 2014 week 17 than a spoiler role.

  • Petefranklin

    Maryland for one point

  • Concierge



    3. Cuse +4 (essay): so everyone is on Minnesota both here on cheddar and on all the public % sites. Actually it’s the most heavily one sided bet game, and it’s with the Gophers as favorites!?! Haha. Syracuse isn’t a great team by any means but the only thing Minnesota does well is run the ball and Cuse is a respectable 48th nationally vs the run. Cuse is a top 20 ranked pass rushing defense so they can get to the QB and Minnesota ranks 107th at protecting the passer. Let’s face it, this game is a clunker but it’s my clunker.

  • Is it just me or is this year’s crop of bowl matchups especially horrendous? Between tonight and New Years Day there’s (spoiler alert!) two, maybe three games that I’d want to watch.

    Anyway, for lack of better options I’ll start off with BYU +3 over Washington tonight for one point. The Cougars tend to show up for their bowl games under Mendenhall, and while the fade-the-coaching-change strategy is often overplayed, I expect the Huskies to miss Sarkisian here. Plus, this one looks like it might fit in with Squeeky’s “unappreciated defense vs team with better perceived offense and weak defense” situation, but with a non-terrible offense to go with it.

    The rest of my picks, including an essay, should be up by tomorrow morning.

    • if marshall/maryland isn’t an occasion for day drinking then i just don’t know what to tell you.

      • Fair.

        • but you raise a fair point and there is a solution:

          The CheddarBay Bowl at FirstEnergy Field sponsored by PilotFlyingJ and JoeBees.

          There were plenty of bowl-eligible teams sitting home and you gotta figure a Toledo-CMU throwdown would pull in 8000 fans and create an influx of ~$25K to the downtown economy therefore not only should it be done but we’d have a good chance at pushing an emergency resolution through city council to fund it.

          • Somehow I don’t think that would help. I was more referring to all the mismatches in the existing bowls. You could remix 7 of the games occurring between today and Tuesday to come up with much better matches. For example:

            Texas A&M v. Notre Dame
            Arizona State v. Louisville
            Duke v. Michigan
            UCLA v. Miami
            Minnesota v. Texas Tech
            K. State v. Va Tech
            Syracuse v. Rutgers

            That’s a much better slate than what we’ve got, with the two at the top being legit headliners and the rest all fitting together quite nicely (Duke/Michigan? Would watch!). Also, Ohio State should have to play Bama, leaving Clemson to square off with Oklahoma. You could do all this while keeping the rest of the bowls the same. It all balances out.

          • Actually, Baylor v. Bama would be pretty great. Then make Ohio State play Mizzou, which would leave Oklahoma v. Clemson and Ok. State v. UCF, a major improvement across the board.

          • CLEVTA

            A&M v Baylor, OSU v Bama, UCF v Clemson, UCLA v Lville (teddy v Hundley) all seem like worthy matchups.

  • Petefranklin

    Jim, I was wondering if you are going to update the cheddar page with commentary on who has what plays for those last playoff spots on Monday or Tuesday. Also I’m getting the hell out of Dodge since all of Southern California is coming to Vegas. I’m going to(So Cal) where I have no real reception, but with some effort and a couple mile drive sometimes I can get internet. Anyway, I never can receive the standings on my phones, can you repost the link please? Maybe I’m missing something.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    All play: Stanford. Assuming the Legend of Connor Cook will no longer be a thing when he sees a real defense.

    Pittsburgh -7 vs. Cleveland because why would the Browns want to win or be equipped to beat Wisconsin-Whitewater right now?

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 vs. North Carolina

  • zarathustra

    1.) Oregon St. (W)
    2.) Gophers
    Oh boy , is this is essay quality. One point for now, but if time permits I will be back with words for this one.

    • zarathustra

      3.) Sparty (all-play)
      4.) Falcons
      5.) Navy
      6.) Ravens***
      Because you can’t win the super bowl if you don’t make the playoffs. These are games that the ravens win; likewise these are also games that the Bengals lose. Playing for a two seed or at least to keep the three seed and avoid a first round meeting with the chiefs makes this a big enough game that we should feel comfortable in marvin lewis’ abiliy to blow it. Flacco should be better after a week of getting acclimated to his injury. I fully expect him to connect on a few ropes downfield when it matters to give the ravens the outright win.

  • Collin

    As the current bubble boy, I’m holding off on giving you kids the free info as long as possible. But gimme the Huskies of Northern Illinois and that all-too-precious point for this evening. This was close to being my essay, but I’ll hold off on that for just a bit here as I found one I like even more.


    2. Utah st -1. As I wrote in my SD st essay last week the MAC Blows! N Ill isn’t that intersted in this game after playing in a BCS gm last year and missing out this year. You saw what happens when a one dimensional team faces a stout run defense when BG pummeled N Ill. this will be very low scoring imo but Utah st wins it.

  • HitTheHorns

    Utah State -1 for one cheddar.

  • rec’d from squeaky.

    Essay: Utah St.: Do we even know if Northern Illinois is any good? I don’t think so. Let’s look at it this way, they play in the MAC. The MAC fixed most, if not all, of their games. Except the last one of course when the MAC was going to MILLIONS of dollars if they just won but then they didn’t because they really aren’t any good and couldn’t win even if the game was fixed for them. That’s what they are – the “Team That Couldn’t Win When the Game Was Fixed For Them”. Not to mention they are now playing in what must seem like a waste of time bowl after being shut out of the big show. In comes Utah St., a squad that has been incredibly fiesty all year. They feature a nice physical defense which carried them after they were left for dead when Keeton went down. One of my favorite situations is unappreciated defense with limited offense vs team with better perceived offense and weak defense. Here it is. Utah St. for essay.

    • squeekycleen

      Regular play: BYU

  • harbaugh handshakes

    Essay niu +1 in the car ill follow up with an essay when I get home
    Bgsu -4.5 for 1 cheddar pt.

    • harbaugh handshakes

      Just make my NIU pick for 1 cheddar pt. I see a few games coming up later I like a lot.

  • FTCMikeD

    Week 18 FTCMikeD

    BGSU – 4.5 over Pitt in Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl

  • thatsfine

    Gimme Pitt for 1 cheddar point.

  • Concierge

    Pitt and NIU tonight.

  • I’m on USU tonite.
    And after much trying to talk myself out of it, of course I’m going to ride BGSU.

  • pateslvrblk

    Utah state -1 over NIU

  • pateslvrblk

    BGSU-4.5 over Pittsburgh

  • Jeff overberger

    NIU +1 (Essay)

    You can’t argue with how tough Utah State schedule was and
    they lost to several quality teams but what most of America doesn’t know is how
    good Bowling Green is. Jordan Lynch will
    be the best player on the field tonight and should still be able to put up some
    solid points against Utah State’s stingy defense. Jordan
    Lynch will finish his career with 200 rushing, 200 passing, and 4 total TD’s
    for a NIU victory north of 7 points.

    BYU +3

    Ravens +5.5

    MSU +5.5 (ALL PLAY)

    South Carolina +2

    Texas A&M -12

  • cwonder23

    BGSU -4.5 vs Pittsburgh
    South Carolina +2 vs Wisconsin
    All Play: MSU +5.5 vs Stanford
    UCF +16.5 vs Baylor
    Vikings -3 vs Lions
    Essay: Ravens +5.5 vs Bengals
    Ravens are playing for a chance at the playoffs. Bengals have locked up their seed. While I think the Bengals will bring their best game due to the division foe, I think the Ravens just want this more. Harbaugh has proven he can get his guys ready for the big game and this definitely fits the bill. Flacco can also justify his big contract. Happy New year! Go Hawkeyes!

    Also, thanks a ton to Kanick for keeping this forum fun and up to date. I had a great time in my first year (although I wish I had better results). I’m looking forward to participating in future years.

  • munasrevenge

    Thank god my tailspin is near its merciful end.

    BYU (+3) vs Washington (Coaching changes could be tricky for Washington, and BYU has talent to hang)
    Navy (-6.5) vs MTSU
    Wisconsin (-2) vs South Carolina (laid an egg against PSU but they should bounce back big here)
    Cardinals (+1.5) vs 49ers (Just because I really want to see them in the playoffs).

    Stanford (-5.5) vs Michigan State (Stanford is a bit overrated but this is actually a good matchup for them)

    Minnesota (-4) vs Syracuse

    I actually probably shouldn’t curse my essay by double dipping with the bowl pool, but I really just don’t see many scenarios where Minnesota can’t cover here. Syracuse has had trouble scoring against everyone this season, and Minnesota has a pretty stout defense. While Minnesota is no offensive juggernaut themselves, I think they should be able to hold Cuse low enough that 14-20 points would be enough to cover here.

  • Rich Swerbinsky

    Pitt Panthers +4.5
    Miami Fla Hurricanes +3.5
    Stanford Cardinal -5.5
    Kansas City Chiefs +9.5
    Houston Texans +6.5
    ***Pittsburgh Steelers -7

    The pain ends Sunday at 4 PM. For me as a Browns fan, and a Cheddar Bay rookie.

  • chuckycrater

    OK, do or die time. I think I need 6 points to assure myself a spot in the playoffs, so I’ve got to nail this essay. Here we go.

    ALL PLAY: Michigan State +5.5 vs. Stanford (feels like a field goal game)
    Steelers -7 vs. Browns
    LSU -7 vs. Iowa
    Kansas State -4.5 vs. Michigan

    ESSAY: Northern Illinois +1 vs. Utah State
    What in the hell is going on with this line? I get that the Huskies might be disappointed to not have landed in another BCS game after tanking the MAC title game. But barring some kind of massive “we don’t want to be here” debacle they’re much better than Utah State, who doesn’t have some huge talent edge. (It’s only their first year in the Mountain West and they’re third in line for recruits in their home state.) No major injuries to NIU, they still get to use Jordan Lynch, and Chuckie Keeton isn’t coming back for the Aggies… and I’m GETTING one point? I pretty much have to hit my essay to get into the playoffs, and since I didn’t know Oregon State was going to count towards this week until after the game started, I’m going with this one. It’s me and Diesel this week, hopefully going out in style.

  • Guest

    OK, do or die time. I think I need 6 points to assure myself a spot in the playoffs, so I’ve got to nail this essay. Here we go.

    ALL PLAY: Michigan State +5.5 vs. Stanford (feels like a field goal game)
    Steelers -7 vs. Browns
    LSU -7 vs. Iowa
    Kansas State -4.5 vs. Michigan

    ESSAY: Northern Illinois +1 vs. Utah State
    What in the hell is going on with this line? I get that the Huskies might be disappointed to not have landed in another BCS game after tanking the MAC title game. But barring some kind of massive “we don’t want to be here” debacle they’re much better than Utah State, who doesn’t have some huge talent edge. (It’s only their first year in the Mountain West and they’re third in line for recruits in their home state.) No major injuries to NIU, they still get to use Jordan Lynch, and Chuckie Keeton isn’t coming back for the Aggies… and I’m GETTING one point? I pretty much have to hit my essay to get into the playoffs, and since I didn’t know Oregon State was going to count towards this week until after the game started, I’m going with this one. It’s me and Diesel this week, hopefully going out in style.

    • chuckycrater

      Hey kanick, this was me before I figured out how to add the GIF of Diesel. Same picks as above., so you can delete this comment.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    BGSU -4.5 over Pitt

    Minn -4 over Syracuse

    BYU +3 over Washington

    Jags +11.5 over Colts
    MSU +5.5 over Stanford -ap-

    ****NIU +1 over Utah State**** Super Terrific Happy Fun Show Essay

    Utah State is fantastic on the important side of the ball and I would normally take Utah State and forget about NIU, however there is one thing that can be difficult to guard against, a quarterback who can scramble and pick up big plays, important 3rd downs, et cetera. (Horseface Sucks) NIU has that linebacker guy playing quarterback, he can make plays throwing while scrambling, or just picking them up and putting them down as he matriculates the ball down the field. (With all due respect to Hank Stram.) I am making a nose dive in the Cheddar standings and I am choosing a quarterback over a terrific defense, perhaps I am suffering from “low T”. If I get one measly point this week, it will either be a lack of testosterone, or I have sand in my vagina again.

  • ChuckKoz

    OSU – win
    Utah St -1 (vs N Ill)
    Minnesota -4 (vs Syracuse)
    Arizona -7.5 (vs BC)
    Jaguars +11.5 (at Colts)
    AP/Essay: Stanford -5.5 (MSU)


    1. Stanford -5.5 (all play)

  • Concierge

    OSU -3 ESSAY!

    Yes I’m going to start off the holiday week with a bang. Oregon State will win this game by 10 plus points. This is another situation like Wazzu vs CSU where the Pac 12 team is clearly the superior team. Good news is that OSU doesnt have that dickhead Mike Leach coaching for them. (I’m not bitter or anything). Plus Boise is without Southwick at Qb because he was pissing off of some balcony or something. I mean who doesnt go to Hawaii and piss off a balcony?? Any way.. GO BEAVERS! Lets all go Muff Diving in Hawaii!!

  • Capitalgg

    Pac12 (America’s toughest conference in 2013) v MWC (ranking somewhere around around 5th or 6th). And it’s the weaker conference’s 3rd-ish best team. And most of their coaching staff just relocated 1 state west. And did you know their QB was just sent home? This is begging to be an essay at only Beavers -3.

    It’s inexplicable that this line isn’t larger considering all that has gone on in Boise since November.

    Boise traditionally had been good in bowls, but that was when Chris Peterson was leading them to BCS bowls. The talent level is down, that’s why Fresno AND San Diego St. were both better than the Broncos this year.

    So my march to a season saving Lobsterfest begins tonight with this essay on Oregon St -3.

    • Capitalgg

      1) Minnesota -4 v. Syracuse

    • Capitalgg

      All-play: Stanford -5.5 v. Michigan St.
      2) Arizona St. -14 v. Texas Tech

    • Capitalgg

      3) Eagles -6.5 @ Cowboys: Required NFL pick.

      1 to go…

  • ***Oregon St. -3 Boise.

    I can’t not essay Oregon St. tonight.

    First off, ChuckKoz is on the Beavers here and also in the CheddarBowl project… no jinxing intended Chuck, but I respect his PAC-12 chops.

    Second you’ve got Boise losing the most successful coach in their history; the guy who recruited every one of these players and who got most of them to bypass PAC12 and Big12 offers to go to Idaho. Now they’re just hanging trying to see what the new guy will be like but he hasn’t shown up yet so it’s a ‘substitute-teacher-on-a-field-trip-to-Hawaii’ situation which brings us to…

    THIRD, whoever the interim coach is just sent his fifth year senior QB and total offense leader home for peeing off a balcony. (I have no way to confirm this but) My guess is that to Les Miles and Urban Meyer and Nick Saban… definitely Brady Hoke, peeing-off-balcony-in-Hawaii is a legit bucket list item and thus not prosecutable in any way. But whoever the substitute teacher at Boise is… he’s drawing a line in the sand by porking a FIVE YEAR SENIOR QUARTERBACK. Imagine, five years at Boise and it ends like that?

    It looks to be an ugly scene too. I mean the QB, Joe Southwick (from Yahoo):

    … tried to contact Boise State administrators and even took a lie detector test to try to clear his name. He told KTVB that he would be willing to share the results of the test with Boise State coaches and administrators.

    “I don’t want this to turn into me against Boise State. I love Boise State. What they’ve been able to do for me these past five years is life changing. And this situation that occurred the last five days could also be life changing, obviously negative for me,” Southwick said. “It’s just really important for myself and my family to get this cleared up and show that really the decision makers in place had a rushed decision, there was no process to properly judicate what happened. It’s really disappointing that it came to this.”

    Meanwhile, OSU has lost five straight but cripes they were against Stanford, USC, ASU, Washington, Oregon. The home loss versus Washington was ugly but Washington is a top 10 pass defense; all Oregon State does is pass. (And hey,
    that’s why they’re just favored by three in this game.) Beavers still have the #3 passing offense going against Boise’s 250 pass-yds/game defense.

    Lookit, I admit I haven’t even checked the rest of the schedule, but I know it will be hard to find another game with:

    * playing against interim coach who is definitely not next year’s coach;
    * playing against second-third string QB;
    * probable locker room discord (after all, that’s really a harsh way to treat a five year player, let alone the starting QB);
    * a ‘brand-name’ school potentially over-valued due to past performance;
    * PAC12 vs MWC athletic disparity;
    * NFL-caliber QB #2 in nation in passing who averaging 12 yds/completion.

    PAC12 is a little out of my comfort zone, and Boise is known for surprises. But Boise wasn’t Boise until Chris Petersen showed up in 2005 and that 92-12 record accrues to him. Boise without Petersen is a wild card. No wild cards for Oregon State, Mike Riley has been HC since 2003; I’ll ride with him here.

  • zarathustra

    Oregon St for me too please.

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