#CheddarBay Week 13: Brady +2.5 vs. Manning.

triumph_insult_comic_dog

Cleveland has great fans.
FOR ME TO POOP ON!!!!!!!!!
[Click me.]

Links to this weeks lines here.

All-play:  Broncos -2.5 at Pats; Sunday 8:30.

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Alternate title: CB#13, The Salty Edition.

If this feeling seems familiar that’s because it is.  I don’t mean in a landmark devastating “Drive/Fumble/RR88” way.  I mean in an “it happens three times a year to Cleveland fans, that moment when you snap back into the reality of your teams’ national irrelevance.”  The Indians… remember August 5th?  Just three games back heading into a four game homestand against the Tigers?  Great pitching from Kluber, 2-0 shutout going into the ninth?

And then Cleveland sports poops on you.1

We could give the Chris Perez Neck Beard Award to the last Sunday’s Browns’ special teams en masse, but if you had to vote for just one player:  it’s hard to look past ersatz elite QB, Jason Campbell.  Christ, talk about regressing to the mean.  THROW ANOTHER THREE YARD CHECKDOWN SWING PASS TO THE RB IN THE LEFT FLAT WHY DONCHA??

Like I said.  Salty.

Because we should know better.  We as a group clearly don’t:  37 picked the Browns (four essays), ten on the Bengals.

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And then there’s the not salty.

Congratulations to The Prohibitive Favorite on his Admiral’s Feast and on scoring an undiluted weekly prize.  A strong bounce back from an off year last year (26th) after having been 4th in 2011.  This demonstrates that ‘off-years’ happen so take heart if you’re having one.

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Skanky Fish with @ClevTA.

@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

25-22-2 ATS YTD;
1-4 last week:  SALA (loss), WMU (loss), UK (loss), Cal (loss), Steelers (win).

Can’t win em all.  We’ll post this week’s when we get em.

Update 11/22, this weeks picks:
CFB:  SDST, NC ST; NFL:  Browns (!).

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BOOKKEEPING REVELATION!!

You know how I’ve been missing some of your picks and then there’s the ensuing awkwardness of having to bring it to my attention?  The tact challenge presented can be formidable:  setting the right tone of thanks and then moving into a casual you missed my pick in a non-accusatory way without flagging an exceptional import to the measly game of Cheddar that shouldn’t probably be so compelling but dammit, it is.  If you’ve had to contact me on this matter, you know the drill.

WELL!!  Good news.  I may have found a way to avoid some these exercises in human relations:  DO NOT EDIT YOUR ORIGINAL POST.  Reply to the original when adding picks to your slate.

bj

And we thank you for your support.

I think perhaps half of the missed entries can be traced to this.  I’m generally not scanning up and down the comment thread for your picks.  I’m looking at an admin comments screen that brings in new comments by time.  Editing of old comments gets treated differently and the net is that your edited/updated comment may be overlooked.

And we thank you for your support.

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Tuesday:  Tonite’s lines are:

UB -24.5 at MiamiO, 8pm, ESPNU;
Kent +5.5 at OU, 8pm, ESPN2.

  1. And the Cavs may already have had their ‘we’re irrelevant’ moment. [back]
  • ChuckKoz

    so proud: my first ever Lobsterfest!!!

  • bupalos

    I’ll go for the Broncs. It’s a sucker’s bet either way. All the externals would point to the pats, but I can’t get over the idea that this pats team just isn’t very good personnel wise. They’ve mostly been in squeakers and the Tom Brady magic is suddenly unmagical with less protection and less experienced receivers. And CTIL tipped me over the edge because she’s mostly always right. The only thing that has me turned the other way is everyone focusing on whether that little skitterbug will play. Doesn’t matter. He’s concussed. He won’t be a factor either way. But I don’t think the Broncs will need him.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Let’s go, Bup! The downward spiral has a fun all its own. (Grab that bottle of moonshine on your way out, the big one.)

      • actovegin1armstrong

        The downward spiral sounds great, but as I embark on my Icarus imitation, I am expecting to miss the playoffs by 1 point again.
        (“Playoffs, Playoffs.) Please think Jim Mora.

        • CleveLandThatILove

          Nope, and don’t even think about depriving me (and Bup) of watching you and Frowns and Kanick and ???? down the stretch.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            But it is not fair, those kids know stuff about betting, spread movement, skanky fish, wise guys, public plays, et cetera. I am just a dum guy picking teams with pretty uniforms.

  • broncos for me.

  • clayII

    essay
    Pats (+2.5) / Broncos
    The 2.5 to me seems Vegas wants you to take Denver. Brady usually beats Peyton, and Bill seems to know how to mess with him. The cold weather thing is kinda meh, but if I had to pick one who is usually better in it, its Brady. Also like Pats coming off a loss, and Welker not 100%. Give me them 2.5 – to stay above the red line.

  • for concierge:

    pats 2.5 essay

    Im sorry i just cant see the patriots losing this game. They are almost unbeatable at home and the fact that Peyton struggles in cold weather is gonna be a huge factor. I was surprised that Tom Brady lost on MNF. He always shines when the lights are the brightest and this game is another one in prime time. This should be one of the best SNF games weve had in a while and I think Tom Brady again shows his dominance over Manning.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Previous Picks:
    Illinois -6.5 (Loser)
    Central Florida -17.5 (winner)
    The rest
    Cowboys +2.5 vs Giants
    Panthers -4 @ Dolphins
    All Play: Denver -2.5 @ New England
    Essay: 49ers -5 vs Washington
    Sure the 49ers are heading acriss the country which is always difficult for West Coast teams but I think the fact that its a night game somewhat negates that…Anyway Washington has a horrible defense and I expect the 49ers, who are the best 6-4 (losses to Sea/NO/Indy/Car) team these eyes have ever seen, to run all over the the Redskins. RGIII is really not playing well and lets not forget this team lost to the Vikings!! The 49ers defense will put a beating on RGIII and stop the run. I’ll take the 49ers in a game they have to win on the road especially when that team is the redskins.

  • Jeff Rich

    Panthers -4 at Miami
    Chargers +4.5 at KC
    Niners -5 at Washington
    Cardinals -2.5 vs Colts***
    Now, I have Sunday Ticket, so I tend not to let the local team get in the way, but I also take advantage of the antenna games to maximize the multi-screen experience. Every Sunday’s late afternoon slot is monopolized by the Cardinals, usually on FOX, and it is usually on the verge of unwatchable. Add Carson Palmer to the mix, and it’s even uglier.

    Having said that, I love the Arizona Cardinals in this one. Bruce Arians is one hell of a football coach, and Chuck Pagano knows it; that’s why he called Bruce off the couch, after Arians was ready to call it a career as a life-long coordinator. You know the rest; Pagano falls ill, they leave the light in for him, and Arians takes an average team to the playoffs. Without a real weapon in offense not named Fitzgerald, the Birds are doing some great things for their Head Coach in Year 1. Andre Ellington is a force, and I’d think Arians has enough familiarity with one Andrew Luck to scheme against him better than another one of Luck’s former Head Coaches did in San Francisco earlier in the year.

    If you missed what went down in Tucson and Pasadena on Saturday, this is Arizona’s weekend on the gridiron.

  • Petefranklin

    It’s a new day and I’ll leave the luck of yesterday behind. I should be fighting for a lobster with these last two instead of for another 3-3 week. Iowa, WTF, 3-1 yardage lead and their QB giftwraps a cover for the wolves, not to mention a missed chip shot field goal that would have pushed. Same with UCLA, two missed chipshots ,either one which would have covered the plus 3.
    Pick #5 Rams-1 over Bears, Clemons has had another week to prepare, Fisher is a better coach , and the rams running game got better last time out.

    • Petefranklin

      I waited on this pick because I assumed that most of my competition would be on the Pats. Turns out that they aren’t so I’ll take the winners tonight then….Pats +2.5 for the AP to salvage the Cheddar weekend.
      Also the Rams cover by enough to give points to turn all my loses into winners and still beat the spread by 12. I guess this just isn’t my year.

  • oxr

    Ducks (L) – whoops

    All-Play Broncos -2.5 over Pats
    Panthers -4 over Dolphins
    Cowboys +2.5 over Giants
    Bucs +9 over Lions

    Essay 49ers -5 over Skins – The 49ers are a decent team whose level of decentness may be being somewhat obscured by two close losses to teams of an arguably higher level. Prior to those there were five wins against not-so-hot opponents, by margins ranging from the low double digits to the stratosphere. Washington has played well at home recently, but everyone appears to be injured and watching Griffin dodge flying linebackers is becoming more and more harrowing each week. The bet is that Washington has a hard time offensively and can’t stop SF from reaching the lofty scoring heights of, say, the Minnesota Vikings, who hung 34 on ’em a fortnight ago. Football Outsiders, while reminding us that ordinal rankings are misleading, has this as an #8-vs-#29 matchup. I will begrudgingly lay the five points tomorrow.

  • bobby_slick

    Ugh, the poor picks keep coming…

    Baylor (L)
    OSU (L)

    Pats All Play

    Jags +10
    Chargers +4.5
    Panthers -4 ***

    I have been overly impressed with the way Ron Rivera has this team playing…I haven’t been truly sold on Cam Newton but finding a way to get it done last week against the Pats was impressive. Their ground game is outstanding and their D is solid. Now let’s take a look at the Dolphins, who have so much going on off the field they cannot even focus. New starters on the right side of the line is not going to help against that Panthers pass rush. Panthers too strong for the Dolphins in this one…still with a lot to prove.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Ravens -3.5
    Raiders -1
    Colts +2.5
    Pats for the All Play
    Panthers -4 (essay)

    The Panthers are a gritty, grind it out football team right now. I know they may be hungover from Monday nights ordeal, but I still think they win this game by a TD. The Dolphins don’t strike me as a team that is mentally tough, so I believe they will continue to go down the drain. The Panthers need to continue to win for playoff positioning, and Cam’s talents go a long way, even in a league where there is so much parity. Also, I am hoping LaFell scores a TD. Starting him in one of my leagues on a whim since I am desperate at WR.

  • HitTheHorns

    Arizona Cardinals -2.5

  • bupalos

    Chargers +5: the chiefs strength (weakness) of schedule may be overrated, but really, what game was I supposed to watch to be impressed by them? 5 points to a good offense and a team that has to win or close up shop? Gimme.

    Cmfb -1.5 steelers o line has solidified, but not enough. Bens frozen siphylitic bones will be snapped by q3, and we’ll score on d once or twice.

    Essay requires more thought.

  • Katie O.

    This is a little later on Saturday than usual but I’ll do anything to avoid doing homework. Obviously.

    All Play: Pats +2.5. What an intriguing all-play but I must say that I can’t complain because I about fell over when I heard it wasn’t yet another Browns game. Once a team is used for an all play, I think it should come out of the hopper, folks.

    Colorado +22 vs. USC – Because when the sun goes down in Fort Collins it’ll be in the 20’s – hope you brought protection, Trojans.

    Chiefs -4.5 vs. Chargers

    Lions -9 over Buccaneers

    Giants -2.5 vs. Cowboys

    Essay: Oklahoma State +10 over Baylor

    I wish there was something more here. Some sort of belief in their offense, defense, and an idea of Baylor’s record. Something. There isn’t and there can’t be. I’ve done a bang-up job of acknowledging football’s existence outside of the Browns this year and that is no one’s fault but my own. I’m taking Oklahoma State because I’ve developed a soft spot for them and their fans since Weeden sucked it up on the Browns. I found a couple of Pokes and Cowgirls on Twitter during the turmoil and they were nothing but hopeful. Ythe Browns fans they were doomed to interact with, well, not so much. Our hope is more like self degradation until something good happens and then even when something good happens we just know it’s going to get screwed up again. When an Oklahoma fan sees their quarterback throw the ball and when it doesn’t hit the ground, they assume the pass is completed. I am war-wounded – whenever Cleveland throws the ball I don’t see it hit the grass, I gutturally assume it’s been intercepted. I don’t mean to wince when someone puts up their hand to give me a high-five, it just happens. It’s this inherent hope the Cowboys fans have that is drawing me to this game. Just as I have hope for every day. Dum spiro spero.

    Also – this vine from Oklahoma’s stadium is pretty rad. Too bad it’s not wrapped it bacon.

    https://twitter.com/TheMikeHarris/status/404020065860739072

  • pateslvrblk

    Okay here’s my picks
    USC-22 over Colorado
    Missouri -2 over Mississippi
    Panthers-4 over Dolphins
    Broncos -2.5 over Pats
    ***UCLA +3 over Arizona St
    Here’s where this could go bad, Arizona state has a front seven that puts a lot of pressure on opposing Quarterbacks, and Hundley has been at his worst when throwing on the run. The fact that they are at the Rose Bowl is also a plus, Arizona doesn’t play well under the bright lights and this will be Arizona state’s third road game in four weeks. Another great weapon UCLA has found is in running back/linebacker Miles Jack, who is just a touchdown machine. I’m also rooting for the university my son is applying to this weekend. Go Bruins!

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Mandatory college picks:
    UCLA +3 over Arizona State (home dog says woof)
    Baylor -10 over Oklahoma St.

    NFL to come later.

    • Jonathan MacDonald

      Well, there goes my Lobsterfest after yesterday’s catastrophe.

      Bradies +2.5 over Mannings
      Titans +1 over Raiders
      Giants -2.5 over Dallas

      Essay: Carolina -4 over Miami

      I was going to take the radical, unprecedented step (at least for me) of Essaying my All-Play pick, but then I saw the Carolina spread. Panthers are on a roll, and are being talked about as a sleeper team to make the Super Bowl. Sorry, I mean the Big Game. Miami, well, I guess they’re about as good as any team in the AFC East not coached by Bill Belichick, which isn’t saying much. Since everyone in Miami is from somewhere else, home field isn’t much of a factor, plus it’s a short trip for Carolina that’s not disruptive to the circardian rhythms or comes with a sudden change in climate zones. Carolina is watching their franchise QB put it all together while Miami is getting more attention for off-field ugliness than on-field success. I just hope Cam Newton keeps it going.

  • oxr

    Wow, last week was pretty ugly for this humble handicapper. If only one pick is going to come through, though, best for it to be the essay. This week I am back to my old tricks, which are tricks that involve not watching any college football, so I will say Oregon -20.5 over Arizona and the rest to come tomorrow AM.

  • Jeff overberger

    I will start with
    VANDERBILT
    ARIZONA STATE
    TEXAS AM
    Chargers
    Bears

  • OK five more to round out the Prohibited Favorite’s slate after Thursday’s dirty essay win on the Falcons:

    Minnesota +16.5 over Wisconsin: I can’t believe the Gophers are getting so many points here and can legitimately say that this looks like one of the strangest point spreads I’ve ever seen, which usually means hold on to your pants, but I guess it’s been awhile for Minnesota. I like what Nick had to say about the weather and an outright win for the big home dog in the big rivalry game.

    Arizona State -3 over UCLA: I was really impressed with the way Arizona State went into Utah and won a few weeks ago in a really tough spot where Utah needed a win badly and came to play. I thought about essaying them even before I saw Squeeky’s essay. Would love to see the Sun Devils get a crack at Oregon in the PAC-12 title game.

    Texas A&M +4.5 over LSU: Johnny Football AND points? What could be more fun.

    ALL PLAY: Broncos -2.5 over Greatriots: I don’t question the All Play choice, but I still hate this game. Not to say that any single regular season matchup could possibly be a meaningful referendum on the question, but do people really think Brady is better a quarterback than Manning? Do people really think Manning wouldn’t have won at least one more Super Bowl than Brady did had he gotten to play for those same teams? Do people think Brady would have won or even gotten to a Super Bowl with those Colts? That seems sort of crazy to me.

    FINALLY, since this might be the only game I’ll get to watch this weekend I might as well pick it. I’m optimistic about what the Browns defense can do to slow the Steelers down tomorrow but on the other side of this is the sceptre of our “elite” quarterback Jason Campbell against the Dick Lebeau zone blitz. I will resolve this coin flip by reference to the insane farce put on by Joe Banner and our Mayor Frank Jackson this weekend, who couldn’t be more sure that the citizens of Cleveland are all complete morons http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/2013/11/mayor-jacksons-secret-ass-kicking-of-joe-banner-and-the-cleveland-browns/ Think of all the mixed feelings Jimmy Haslam will have tomorrow. Steelers -2.5 over Clowns

    • Matt Borcas

      Yeah, I do think Brady “would have won or even gotten to a Super Bowl with” Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark instead of Antowain Smith and David Patten and Troy Brown and Christian Fauria. With Manning’s early-2000s supporting cast, Brady would’ve posted 2007-like numbers from 01-06.

    • Matt Borcas

      Also think Brady would win the Super Bowl this year if he had Thomas/Decker/Welker/Thomas.

  • mrickman

    broncos -2.5
    minnesota +16.5
    boston college +1
    bowling green -24
    panthers -4
    colorado state +7.5

    without chuckie keeton it’s impressive what utah state has been able to do to even get to bowl eligibility. he is such a focal point of that offense that the aggies’ three-game winning streak can’t be ignored. that said, colorado state is on a run of its own, and the power football game the rams play behind kapri bibbs (one of the best running backs no one gets to see) actually hurts what utah state wants to do. go back to the usc game, where even with a healthy keeton and kiffin still coaching the trojans, the slow, methodical game took the ball out of the aggie playmakers’ hands. i like colorado state to cover and have a shot at winning.

    • It would be better if his name was Kapri Bipps but Kapri Bibbs is still an awesome name.

  • dwhalen

    Notre Dame -1 vs. BYU.

    Mississippi +2.5 vs. Mizzou.

    Vikings +5 @ Packers.

    Cowboys +2.5 @Giants.

    Broncos -2.5 @ Patriots.

    $$$$ Colts +2.5 @ Cardinals. $$$$
    Just realized the Cardinals were 6-4 or something like that. I’m a Bruce Arians guy, and i think what he’s done with the cardinals and with the Colts last year has been impressive. I’m also a huge fan of stud running backs who are simply dominating the NFL with 2.6 YPC. Ok so that second part is a joke, but still.

    I’m running out creative things to write based on the fact that I used it all in a 120-page RFP response I had to do in 4 days this week. I’m bringing up the rear of this competition, and I’m trying to make it respectable.

  • clayII

    Syracuse (+1) / Pitt
    Kansas (+5) / Iowa St
    Vandy (+3) / Tenn
    Hawaii (+6.5) / Wyoming
    BYU (+1) / Notre Dame
    all play essay to follow

  • CLEinMPLS

    Illinois -6.5

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine
    Previous winners: Buffalo (essay), Kent St., Losers: Toledo

    Broncos -2.5 / Pats – Taking the better team under a key number without regards to historical evidence
    North Texas -7 / UTSA – Mean Green tough and reliable at home
    Indiana +34 / TOSU – Aside from last week, IU has been able to score points this season.

  • USFCollin

    All play: Denver -2.5 over New England because you people keep making me bet pro football and I hate that.

    Penn State -1.5 over Nebraska. T-Magic on the road isn’t something you’ll get to bet a lot anymore, so take advantage when you can.

    Temple -8 over UConn. UConn STINKS (note: so does Temple’s defense), but PJ Walker is legit. If UConn was capable of scoring in a whorehouse, I wouldn’t be all over this line.

    Cinci -3 over Houston. Somewhere along the way, Cinci figured out how to be good at football. Houston is an up and comer, but they get beat today.

    Memphis +24 over Louisville. I don’t think I’ve missed a UL bet this year. They’re so easy to figure out when they won’t show up.

    Essay: Duke -4.5 over Wake.

    Duke playing in the ACC title game and getting 1st half boatraced by Jameis is still going to be the biggest highlight in Blue Devils history. And then there’s my smart kid theory of football. Follow me here:

    Schools that actually enforce academic standards to their student-athletes are much more likely to look at the game they play with more of an analytical mind. It means they follow the trends of their sport, and think about it on a higher plane. One of those trends is to let down before they play UNC next week for an ACC title game berth. So Duke is self-aware enough to not do that because the kids preemptively guard against a “trap game” (even though this isn’t really a trap game in the truest sense of the word).

    This trend generally works for Stanford and Vandy too (though less so since Franklin got there), and totally works against teams with lower academic standards that dominate bad leagues (Louisville).

    I worked a Duke game from the press box at Wallace Wade last year, and couldn’t have been more impressed with the entire football operation. This is a first-rate program that David Cutcliffe has built, and he’s got smart kids running a good system.

    Oh, and Wake totally blows. So there’s that too.

  • TheKardiacKid

    TheKardiacKid:
    Pitt-1 @Cuse
    Arizona St -3 @UCLA
    @Arkansas +1.5 vs Miss St.
    @Temple -8 vs UConn
    AP: @NE +2.5 vs Denver
    Essay:
    Baylor -10 @Oklahoma St
    I had a terrible week last week. 1-5 and am falling out of the race very quickly. Everybody except OSU fan seems to love Baylor so why not me.
    This is the last major hurdle for Baylor to jump Ohio State in the BCS. I think Briles will have them ready to go and will look to drop some style points on the other OSU.

  • Bevilacqua

    Bevilacqua

    Oklahoma State (+10) over Baylor
    Texas A&M (+4.5) over LSU
    Oklahoma (+3.5) over Kansas State
    BYU (+1) over Notre Dame
    All Play: Broncos (-2.5) over Patriots
    Colts (+2.5) over Cardinals

    Kansas State had a tough schedule, opening their Big 12 season with Texas, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. Now that we know what we know, the fact that each game was relatively close (Kansas State even led against the latter two teams in the fourth quarter) is almost a resume builder. And their recent four-game winning streak adds to that. However, I just can’t get myself to go against Bob Stoops on this game. It seems like the public always overreacts a bit when Oklahoma is down, and their 22 ranking certainly quantifies as that. So I’ll go with Oklahoma, for the sake of tradition.

    • Bevilacqua

      **Oklahoma being the ESSAY pick.

  • architectartvandelay

    Marshall -32.5 @ FIU – Betting against a bad team

    Illinois -6.5 @ Purdue – See above

    OSU -34 vs IU – Give the Wolverines one more blowout to think about

    Cardinals -2.5 vs Colts – Arians knows the Colts

    Pats +2.5 vs Broncos – Pats know how to fluster Manning

    Essay 49ers -5 @ Burgundy and Gold

    49ers are coming off 2 tough defeats & are in need of a win. Washington is a mess on D & their strength on offense plays right into the 49ers strength. Both QBs have taken some flack for their play this year but the reality is both have played well given the circumstances they have had to deal with. Kapernick should have success against Washington & there is an outside chance that Crabtree could make an appearance.
    Washington is 1-8 ATS vs NFC & the 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

  • Nick

    #1 Ohio -5.5 (L)
    3 picks today including essay

    CMU -10 vs U.Mass
    Illinois -6.5 vs Purdue – because I can’t help myself.

    Illini fan: “Ummm — no. I’m not expecting there to be a student contingent in Purdue at all,” he said. “Illinois football fans don’t travel. I think our volleyball fans travel better than our football fans.”

    Purdue fan: “Honestly, I looked around me and there were at least five rows of empty bleachers in front of me and behind me,” Schuler said. “You could bring a boat in there. It was bad.”

    Minny +16.5 vs Wiscy****essay pick

    It’s no Illibuck, but Paul Bunyon’s axe is a pretty cool trophy. The problem for the Gophers is Minnesota loses when they can’t the run the ball. They are inexperienced at QB, so they rely on the run game more than any other team in the big 10. Wisconsin’s rush defense is ranked 7th in the country, so they will have to make plays through the air. Feel free to stop now and take the Badgers, because the technicals say they will run away with this one. Covers has this game split 50/50.

    By the way, it’s 8 degrees in Minneapolis right now, and will reach a high of 16 at kickoff. Minny must have some tricks up their sleeve. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, so I expect they will pull out all the stops.

    I told myself all year I will take Minny in a big spot. Minnesota will cover this game b/c Jerry Kill is developing a special relationship with his team. I’m convinced he will prepare his team to play this game as best as possible.

    Minnesota last beat Wisconsin in 2003. Wiscy’s current 9 game winning streak ties for the longest streak between these two teams since 1890. I’m thinking an outright win here for Minny is in order.

    • Nick

      Put me on the Broncos and Niners to finish

  • trashycamaro

    College #1: Idaho -57 over @FSU. Has to be some fall off for/from Winston here.

    NFL #2: All Play @Pats +2.5 over Broncos. Sure. Brady/Belichick at home AND

    points? Sign me up.

    NFL #3: Bears +1 over @Rams. McCown and Forte can take Stacy. Just need Austin

    to be kept in check.

    NFL #4 (Essay): Jets +3.5 over @Ravens. The obvious call here for the Win 1

    Lose 1 Jets. MOAR Jets. Howver, since we have to get to 100 words, here is some

    statistical mumbo jumbo just for Frownie. These teams are very close to even

    according to Football Outsiders rankings. Both have putrid offenses (J24 B22)

    and strong D (J5 B8). The Jets hold an edge in special teams (J4 B12). The

    Jets big weakness this year has been, wait for it, Geno Smith turnovers.

    Looking at Geno smith’s game by game is pretty funny.

    This years Ravens are not the Ravens of years past. This year, opponent’s

    drives end in a turnover 13% of the time (pro-football-reference.com). 2012 7.8,

    2011 11.7, 2010 9.7. Check that – this year’s Ravens force turnovers at a

    higher rate than Ravens defenses of years past. This number has been upped by

    big games against EJ Manuel and the Red Rifleman. Shockingly, they did not

    force Weeden, Tannehill, and Cutler/McCown in to any turnovers.

    This week, after some extra laps for Geno after practice, I think he does a

    better job holding on to the ball to keep the game close for the Jets.

    NFL #5: Colts +2.5 over @Cardinals. Andrew Luck for a comeback win? Yes

    please.

    NFL #6: 49ers -5 over @Washington. Haha – anyone see the Mort tapes of RG3

    passing last week? That plus the 24th ranked defense is enough to get the 49ers

    winning again.

  • Concierge

    EMU +24
    Houston -3
    Utah State -10
    Michigan +6
    Miss State -1.5

    • I’m going to assume the Pats/Broncos to be your essay pick.
      Let me know if you want one of these as essay (you still have a no-essay week card to play still).

      • Concierge

        Correct, I’ll essay one of those.

        • and I find your EMU pick most unnerving.

  • munasrevenge

    Let’s try to stem last week’s bleeding today:

    Marshall (-32.5) @ Florida International (Marshall has shown it’s capable and not afraid to blow out cupcakes, and FIU might be the cupcakiest of them all.)
    Nebraska (+1.5) @ Penn State (PSU is a nice little story, but even at home they should be completely outmatched here)
    Duke (-4.5) @ Wake Forest (Another nice story, except more “real” than PSU. Duke is a legitimate threat to win their division, and have enough talent that they should easily win this trap game).
    Boise State (-6.5) @ San Diego State (SDSU is really such a mirage of a team; BSU has much more talent and a much better coach, look for a dominant win here.)

    -Patriots (+2.5) vs Broncos (I know the Pats don’t have the pass rush to fluster Manning, but something about this game just screams Brady to me.)

    —Illinois (-6.5) @ Purdue

    Going into this week there was one game I was already looking to Cheddar, and possibly essay depending on the number. I like to look ahead and set my own numbers for games I’m looking at, then compare to the numbers set for us. If there’s a large gap, I go back and check to see if there’s any info I miss. I had this one set at -14, and it came back much much lower. There are two reasons I can deduce for this: Illinois’s famous conference losing streak, and the B1G being a “terrible” conference. On the surface the teams seem simliar; they are both winless in the conferences, and have even faced the same 6 teams: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State. This list represents the top 5 teams in the conferences (sorry Michigan) and Penn State, who is probably 7th. But all bottom-feeders are not created equal. Other than a tricky 14 point loss to Michigan State where the Spartans struggled mightily on offense, Purdue has gotten to 0-6 by a series of ugly blowouts, almost completely without offense. Illinois has also been on the wrong end of lopsided scores, but have managed to hang around better (30+ against Wisconsin and Ohio State is an impressive feat). Ultimately, I just can’t stress how bad a team Purdue is; they have one win on the season, a seat-of-your-pants 20-14 home win against a 1-10 division II Indiana State team. Illinois was fairly impressive in non-conference, and is HUNGRY to end their famous conference streak. They take out weeks of frustration here and win B1G.

  • Texas A&M +4.5 @ LSU
    Oregon -20.5 @ Arizona
    Oklahoma State +10 vs. Baylor
    Baltimore -3.5 vs. NY Jets
    NY Giants -2.5 vs. Dallas
    New England +2.5 vs. Denver

    Essay will be one of the NFL games.

  • Art_Brosef

    Man what a shitty slate of games this week. LSU/TAM should be fun, and ill watch PSU/Nebraska, but other than that I think Ill just get drunk and go to the Cleveland Flea Market instead. I couldnt really find anything else that peaked my interest, so Ill start with two games which seem very similar, in that they both seem square as hell. Road conference chalk in potential trap spots. Oh well, YOLO AMIRITE?!?!

    Duke -4.5 The line is -6.5 now FWIW, so if nothing else Ill take the two points vs the market. Duke is chalk full of upper classmen who’ve been coached well their entire careers, which should prevent this from being a let down game with two wins for a spot in the ACC title game. They are tough on D, run the ball, and can get vertical with Crowder who is approaching 1000 yard receiving. Wake running game ranks 117th in the country and they are missing their best offensive weapon in Michael Campanaro. Duke wins by over a TD against a Wake team whos well, just not very good.

    ***ECU -6 ECUs losses this year are a home whiff against VT and tough road loss across the country vs Tulsa. They boast a 3-1 road record and NC State isnt exactly a long haul for them. ECU is putting up >40 pts a game and >450 yards per game. Carden has a 29-7 td-int ratio and completes >72% of his passes. NC State is actually decent against the pass which should neutralize that attack slightly, however they make up for that by being completely incompetent on run defense, as they gave up an ACC record 339 yards on the ground to Andre Williams of BC last week. Yikes. NC State has lost 6 straght and havent won a conference game all year. I dont expect it to start today vs the high flying Pirates who are looking for their 5th straight win.

    • Art_Brosef

      In light of both Kanicki and a conversation i just had, will add Bowling Green. Thx

  • p_forever

    Pats +2.5 Broncos

    Indy +2.5 Arizona (thx to acto for reminding me where football goes to die)

    LSU -4.5 Texas A&M

    Baylor -10 Oklahoma St.

    Oregon -20.5 Arizona

    ND -1 BYU****

    It’s just statistically impossible (well I mean it should be impossible but I can’t promise nate silver would agree) for ND to keep finding ways to lose to what on paper and on film and in person appear to be much lesser teams. Which means that ND can’t lost to BYU after that Pitt debacle. Plus ND had the bye week to prepare and they are at home and it is senior day and FOR THE LOVE OF GOD TOMMY JUST DON’T TURN THE BALL OVER omg. Since
    it’s his very last game ever ever ever and he doesn’t want all of his
    classmates to hate him I think rees will get my last point, and that the irish
    will get it done today. (also since the weather will be awful it seems likely that the running game will be featured prominently, which will greatly reduce rees’ ability to make tragic and critical errors. Cripes.)

  • Rich Swerbinsky

    UCLA Bruins +3
    Denver Broncos -2.5
    Detroit Lions -9
    Miami Dolphins +4
    New York Jets +3.5
    *** Indianapolis Colts +2.5

    The Colts have had three blah performances in a row (have won two of them though) since their win over the Broncos, and I see them going out west and pummeling an overrated Arizona team that is mistakenly laying points in this one based off back to back to back wins over the woeful Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars. Chuck Pagano knows Bruce Arians better than anyone, Carson Palmer is nowhere near as good as he has fooled people into thinking these last three weeks, and the Colts have been a good road football team this year. Colts 27 Cardinals 14.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Arizona St.: Who’s kidding who with this line? I mean, does this make any sense? Vegas must hate UCLA, because a week after installing them as a tiny home fav vs. unranked Washington, they make them a home underdog against a lower ranked opponent. It makes little, if any, sense. It’s either the oddsmakers have grossly underestimated UCLA and they are an incredibly disrespected team, or…UCLA just isn’t very good. I’m guessing its the latter, its not like UCLA didn’t just pick up a big win on an unopposed game on national TV or anything. Go Sundicks.

    All play; Patriots
    Others:
    BYU
    Ole Miss
    St. Louis Rams

  • FTCMikeD

    Saints (Loss)

    @OK St + 10 over Baylor

    Panthers -4 over @Dolphins
    @Cardinals -2.5 over Colts
    *****Cowboys +2.5 over @Giants
    AP: @Pats +2.5 over Broncos

    *****Everyone needs to cool their jets on the G-men. It’s all, oh here come the Giants with their 2nd half surge. Not going to happen my friends. Their last 4 wins have come from beating these QBs: Scott Tolzien, Terelle Pryor, Matt Barkley, and Josh Freeman. Not exactly barn burners.

    Dallas will have taken the bye week to get healthy and figure out their defense. Eli hasn’t been slinging the ball around that much lately and has been cautious the last 4 weeks. I’m not sure he can keep up in a shootout. Dallas should be pretty motivated this weekend too, which all the talk of the resurgent Eagles. Dallas wins in NY.

  • Petefranklin

    IMO edited picks shouldn’t be allowed.
    Essay: Iowa -6 over Meechigan. Look, Meechigan, and It’s front running fans who root for the Ohioans who defect across that parallel line to the north, have 1 game left. It’s definitely not this weeks game at Iowa. Go ahead and take a look at some Detroit blogs if you can stomach them. The fans could give a rats ass about this Iowa game. It’s all about not getting blown off their home turf next week. The players can finally feel good about themselves after that miracle kick last week, which will leave them ripe for the picking vs. the Hawks. Meeechigan simplified their running game last week and had some success vs. a suspect Wildcat Defense. They think that they’ve solved the puzzle as to why they couldn’t run the ball well this season. Simplification ain’t gonna work vs a stout Iowa defense that has been getting ready for their home finale for two weeks. Coach Hoke is already on the hot seat, but I see him saving whatever he may have up his sleeve for the Bucks. Iowa has been good vs. Meeechigan recently, especially at Kinnick. Their red zone offense has been pretty bad but their red zone defense should make up for it. I look for Meeechigan to make quite a few mistakes that Iowa will capitalize on. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Meeechigan kicker misses at least two FG’s after last weeks kick. Bottom line, this game is of far more importance to Iowa than it is to Meeechigan, so expect Iowa’s most solid effort of the year, while getting a mistake filled game from Meechigan.
    Pick #3 Wyoming -6 over Hawaii…I sat through that whole SDSU /Hawaii game last week and Hawaii blew their best chance for a victory this year. Their O Line got some key injuries as well so their passing game won’t be able to take care of the very nice weather in Lyramie predicted for Saturday.This is another pick where I don’t think the “spot” has been taken into account enough.
    Pick #4 will be another “spot” play, I’m just not sure which one yet.

    • HitTheHorns

      Why would we have access to edit our original post? That does not seem like a great idea.

      • Editing posts is a nice thing to have for a blog comment section; not for a football pool — agreed.

        But I want to point out here and clearly that in the four years I’ve been involved with this pool there has not been any scandal with any player regarding any entry modification shenanigans. By this I mean that neither among the ‘public’ community nor among the Executive Committee has ever even a suspicion of such been raised.

      • Separately, but in a similar vein, I need to clarify something raised last week. You suffered a beat bad with UGA on your essay last week and jokingly asked for mercy points and I jokingly sympathized.

        We should be clear on this point: no discretionary mercy points will be doled out by me or the E.C. or anyone, ever.

        I understood the tenor of your tweet and I hope you understood mine as well. But I did make it muddy and I want there not to be any misunderstanding on that front either.


        Alrighty then!

        • HitTheHorns

          Was just making twitter convo after a game we were both watching. I hope it was obvious that I wasn’t being serious, and there would be no applicable way to distribute a mercy point, nor would I want the contest to be run that way. Sorry for the confusion.

    • Petefranklin

      Pick #4 UCLA +3 over ASU, I really really really liked Colorado over USC as another spot play but just couldn’t pull the trigger against USC’s Oline which should have their way. Anyway UCLA has been noted here for their outstanding fight song….ASU not so much. I like most everything about this matchup except the look ahead for Ucla and the revenge factor for ASU. ASU is smelling roses already again, maybe they should have pursued Hundley(from Chandler) more to actually get them

    • Petefranklin

      I really like Iowa and the market has confirmed my best bet, Iowa is rising to 6.5 while the public #’s still are on Meechigan. Bet it if you like, I did! BTW the 5.5 that was and still is showing at LVH is false. I bet it there at 8am and it was 6.

  • HitTheHorns

    HitTheHorns:

    Ohio -5.5 (loss)

    Essay: SD Chargers +4.5

    I’m seeing 61% on the Chiefs, as this is probably an assumed
    win at home for a 9-1 team coming off a hard fought loss. NOT SO FAST.
    Tough spot for KC with this being a sandwich game in between two meeting
    with the Broncos. SD has lost 3 straight
    and their defense in not playing well, and I don’t think Alex Smith will be
    able to take advantage of that. KC will
    overreact to not having any sacks last week, and Chargers will take advantage
    by running the ball with Woodhead and Mathews.
    I think the Chargers win this game outright.

    All Play New England Patriots +2.5

    Idaho +57

    Mississippi +2.5

    One more pick this weekend.

  • CLEVTA

    Fishy picks- CFB: SDST, NC ST
    NFL: Browns

  • Matt Borcas

    [mattborcas]

    Texas A&M +4.5 over LSU

    Jets +3.5 over Ravens: NYJ’s good/bad/good pattern is a real thing and this is a good week

    Pats +2.5 over Broncos: admittedly this is a total rooting interest pick. Love the Patriots, love Brady, and it’s very important to me that he goes down as a better player than Manning

    Steelers +2.5 over Browns: :(((((

    Colts +2.5 over Cardinals: Not a Bruce Arians fan and Colts know him better than anyone (outside of Big Ben, maybe)

    ESSAY: ND -1 over BYU

    The Irish haven’t lost on Senior Day since 2009 and I don’t see Tommy Rees ending his collegiate career on a negative note, especially after the shitshow at Pitt. Moreover, this ND team has some impressive victories to its name — Michigan State, Arizona State (who beat Wisconsin, who beat BYU), & USC — and their defense is playing much better than the unit that gave up 41 points to Michigan. There is an increased energy around the program with news that Everett Golson’s return is imminent, too (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/11/20/5125350/notre-dame-football-everett-golson), AND the Irish are coming off a bye week, which is always beneficial, especially with a coach of Brian Kelly’s intellect. Go Irish!!!!!!!!!

  • CLEVTA

    1. Air Force (L)- apparently the snow didnt matter at all
    2. All Play undecided
    3. Utah St -7.5: Big line value as it’s up to 10.5 now. CSU does have a stud RB in Bibbs but he put up huge numbers the last two week vs New Mexico and Nevada, two of the bottom feeders nationally against the run. Utah St ranks 21st nationally against the run and 16th in overall def yds/play. When you examine games where Bibb faced good run defenses (Bama, Boise), he could only muster 12 yds on 5 carries (vs Bama) and 69 yds on 25 carries (vs Boise). Utah St should do the same. Meanwhile CSU can’t stop anybody on def ranking 96th in def yds/play. After the shock of losing Chuckie Keeton early in the year. Utah St has adjusted well and the backup Garretson has put up back to back really nice games.

    4. Fresno -31 (Essay): If you have tracked me you know this is totally unlike me to take a huge favorite like this. But circumstances require it. New Mexico has been frisky this season and have actually put up some nice offensive games while the defense has still stunk. Problem is New Mexico’s two best offensive players, QB Gautsche and RB Carrier, are both out for the year with concussions. That’s just a killer. So this NM team has to function on the road in Freson with backups at both QB and RB while tossing out their 122nd ranked run defense and 115th ranked pass defense vs Carr, Adams and company. In addition NM has not been able to protect their QB all season with the 122nd ranked offensive Sack% while Fresno’s defense sacks the opposing QBs ranking 8th nationally. Fresno needs to blow teams out in order to stay ahead of N Ill for a BCS birth.

    5. Ole Miss +2.5

    6. Coming Sunday morning

    • CLEVTA

      6. Denver -2.5 All play

      • CLEVTA

        I apologize but heard some new info on tonights game and would like to switch my pick to NE. Thx

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Rutgers +17.5 over Central Florida (Already submitted)
    Falcons +9 over Saints (Already submitted)
    Pats +2.5 over Broncos (All play)
    Oklahoma St +10 over Baylor ***
    LSU -4.5 over Texas A&M
    Steelers +2.5 over Browns

    *** Oklahoma St +10 at home has all the makings of a sucker bet. But Baylor could be falling into the trap now of playing extremely tight since they are a few wins away
    from a potential national title game appearance. This happens every year with teams that come out of nowhere into the undefeated national spot light in November. And now College Game Day will be there and will have all the focus on them. Baylor is coming off of a huge win against Texas Tech (who is notoriously horrible on defense.) Oklahoma St is hot coming into this game too with upset on their mind here. The last time that Baylor played someone on the road who even somewhat legit was Kansas St and they grinded out a 10 point win. I think this one comes down to the wire and 10 points is just too many.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Saints -9 for one Breesy point, thank you. Just got home, sorry I’m late

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Wisconsin -16.5 Minnesota
      Utah St. -7.5 Colo St.
      ***(AP) Broncos -2.5 Pats
      Browns -2.5 Steelers
      Cardinals -2.5 Colts

      ***Have to, can’t not, must do this. Don’t care how ornery the Pats are after last week, don’t care that they are at home, don’t care how hard Belichick is fuming, and don’t care if Welker plays or not. I have faith in the man who in every single camera shot on the sidelines (does he have a cameraman assigned solely to him every game, I think so) has his head down and is locked into the play sheets or whatever those papers are almost before his butt hits the bench, no matter if his team just scored or he failed to move the ball enough to stay on the field for another series. No celebrating, no complaining, just all business, all the time when he is at work. After all these years. How can you not respect that? It’s Denver’s year. That is all.

  • ESSAY: Dirty me up with some Birds that could hardly be any dirtier after last week’s stomping by the legion of jank from the Bay. 9 points with a team that can score, at home, against a division rival and tremendous public favorite. Roddy White is supposedly healthy. The Saints lost Jabari Greer last week and motivation is likely to be lagging for them here. Any given Thursday. But mostly, I have to work all weekend if I’m going to have any hope of enjoying a more savory bird one week from today and anyway this is a dirty ass weekend of football games so I might as well get in and out quick here. God made dirt and dirt bust your ass.

    Falcons +9 over Saints (and all their bullshit — http://deadspin.com/ahmad-brooks-says-his-flag-for-hitting-drew-brees-was-1466625370 ).

  • zarathustra

    Ohio (L)
    You learn something new everyday. Apparently I was unaware that its not a great idea to lay points with a team who only managed a field goal over the previous 8 quarters. Who knew?

    Patriots +2.5 over Broncos (all-play)
    Greatest qb of his generation vs. The imposter.

    UNLV +1 over Air Force
    Because I only learned one lesson with the bobcats tuesday and it wasn’t that I should quit chasing mid-week action.

    Sparty -7 over Northwestern
    I truly feel bad that the northwestern season has turned out this way, but I don’t see them bouncing back after last week against a sparty team playing revenge.

    Illinois -6.5 over Purdue
    Completely different levels of bad.

    Ravens -3.5 over Jets
    I have picked against geno only four or five times in this contest, but have managed to work my geno hatred into arguments on like five others. Typically when writing about him I predict three turnovers. I actually don’t think he will even get the opportunity for three on sunday because he will be yanked after two.

    Also will be on navy, nebraska, ECU, vandy, michigan, mississippi st, and boise

  • FTCMikeD

    Thursday night Cheddar:
    Saints -9 over @Falcons

  • bupalos

    The wisdom is just seeping out of the board’s ears tonight. I’m buying.

    BGSU
    Air Force
    Saints

    Each for a point if you please. Can’t let you MacHeads run out in front too far, it gets demoralizing by Sunday.

  • Peter Markos

    CENTRAL FLORIDA -17.5 OVER RUTGERS
    BROWNS OVER PITTSBOIG
    PATS OVER DENVER
    SF OVER WASH
    CAR -3.5 OVER MIA
    ARI -2 OVER COLTS – BONUS GAME
    CARSON EARNS HIS PAYCHECK WITH A WIN HERE. BEAT PITTSBURGH.
    WHAT A DIFFERENCE A SOLID QB MAKES FOR A FRANCHISE. BEAT PITTSBURGH. I DONT SEE THE PATS LOSING BACK TO BACK GAMES. BEAT PITTSBURGH. DOLPHINS SEASON IS DONE, THE PANTHERS EAT THEM UP. BEAT PITTSBURGH. THE TEAM FROM WAHSINGTON WILL LOSE TO AN ANGRY 49ER TEAM. BEAT PITTSBURGH. UCF WILL HANDLE THE SCHIANO REJECTS. BEAT PITTSBURGH. DID I EVER TELL YOU GUYS I HAVE A.D.D.?

  • CLEVTA

    1. Air Force -1: Triple option in the snow can’t be easy to defend. UNLV isn’t used to really cold weather.

    • it’s gonna be brutally cold. single digit windchills at 6000 ft. woof.

      • Petefranklin

        I heard it was 17 degrees before the sun went down. Go Rebs!!

  • pateslvrblk

    Central Florida 17.5 vs Rutgers

  • Its Only Money

    @ UCF – 17.5 Rutgers
    @ Temple – 8 Connecticut
    @ OSU – 34 Indiana
    @ Stanford – 31.5 California
    All Play Denver – 2.5 @ New England

    Essay New Orleans – 9 @ Atlanta
    You would think that after getting blown out by Tampa Bay on Sunday that Falcons would want to come out tonight and show a little pride. At first I thought that too, but now I realize that these grown men have no pride. The Saints need to win to keep pace with the Seahawks and are going to come out and punch Atlanta in the mouth. There is no way that the Falcons can keep up with the offense that the Saints have. Rob Ryan has the Saints D playing well, not that Atlanta is an offensive juggernaut, and will keep things in check. The Falcons have given up and it will truly show for all to see on national TV tonight. The Saints in one we are turning off early.

  • for dquatts:

    Atlanta +9 (at home against New Orleans) $$$
    NE +2.5 (at home against Den) All-Play
    Oklahoma State +10 (at home against Baylor)
    Tampa Bay +9 (at Detroit)
    Jacksonville +10 (at Houston)
    Dolphins +4 (at home against Carolina)

    Everyone knows the Saints are a good football team…especially the Atlanta Falcons. They have knows this for the past 5 years, after battling for the top of that divison year in and year out. Well, this is a little different story this year. Atlanta is banged up…injured…and nearly done with this season. But, for some reason, they are still (somewhat) keeping it together and competing every week. Matt Ryan and Co. still wants to win every time they step out on the field. In all honesty, this line should be easily double digits, and would be…if it wasn’t for how well these two teams know each other. Lookout, New Orleans, you are in for a ‘Dirty Bird’ fight tonight.

    Thanks in advance! Good luck this week.
    DQuatts

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Hook up Old Hemingway with the Falcons +9 over the Saints and Rutgers +17.5 over Central Florida.

  • 1. UB -24 @MiamiO (win)
    2. @Toledo +2.5 NIU (loss)

    3. ***BGSU -24 @EMU
    I’ve been enjoying late season MACtion for the good games like NIU/BSU and profiting from the bad games. I think the value is really in the MAC. For example, look at last week’s OSU/Illinois loss I took. Bad as Illinois looked, they still had Tim Beckman coaching and his pass offense didn’t suck. UI had no run defense and don’t ask me why Urbz decided to try to work on Miller’s passing game in the Illinois wind but whatever, these risks were known and I had to give 32 points. Flash forward to Tuesday night and Buffalo is going against a team with an interim coach and a platoon system at QB, platooning between second/third string QBs, mind you. And I only had to give 24 points.

    You dig?

    The MAC mismatch games (NIU/BSU/UB/BGSU/UT vs (MU/EMU/WMU/OU/UMass) should have spreads in the 30s but they’re always in the low 20s.

    BGSU vs EMU is a case in point.

    On offense, I think BG’s QB Matt Johnson runs the zone read as well as or better than ANYONE in the country. By run it, I mean this guy actually reads the point of attack. BG’s zone reads seems to develop slower but that because Johnson actually is watching the attack defender and actually prepared to pull the ball and run himself if the attacker bites on the RB. Most zone read QBs have their mind made up before the play. Johnson run game command is augmented by a strong arm and decent targets. Dave Clawson has built very good balanced attack from BGSU that doesn’t get talked up much because of their defense. They’ll need it against UB in a couple weeks. They really won’t need it against EMU (119 in total defense, 118 in rush defense, 122 in pass efficiency defense), but it would seem that a strong offense against a nationally bad defense should yield about five or six TDs.

    On defense, BGSU has the best defense in the MAC, 12th in the country and EMU? 99th in total offense, 92 in pass offense, 104 in scoring. So it’s not like EMU is going to hang 35 points on BG forcing them to run it up to 60 for the cover. Toledo, IU, and MissySt got over 20 pts on BG; EMU ain’t anywhere near those three offenses.

    Last, coaching. Dave Clawson might be in his final year at BG as he figures to get some offers over the off-season and well he should. Meanwhile, EMU recently fired Ron English and has an interim coach and while sometimes interim coaches can save a season (Orgeron/USC) if the season’s already dead the interim coach is just keeping a seat warm (__?___/MiamiO). EMU is the latter.

    While this is a road game, only 2177 showed in a the quasi-rivalry game vs. WMU last week. If there’s more than 2000 in Ypsi for this game it’s because BG brought their band.

    Nope… don’t get it. If this were Marshall/EMU or Fresno/EMU or Louisville/EMU or VaTech/EMU you’d see 35 point spread. The books have -imo- an in-MAC blindspot where all in-MAC games max out at 24 points. Fine. I’ll take it.

    4. @FAU -22 NMSt
    5. MTSU -23 @USM
    6. AP: Undecided.

    Also playing Saints, UCF, Ill, Sparty, Duke, MissySt, CMU, Wisco, USU, LSU, BYU, UCLA, Mizzou, Baylor, UNT.

    • Capitalgg

      Look at you giving away my secret of MAC profitability. Actually, I’ve been saying this since at least October. Essentially it’s as reliable this year as the Fun Belt was last year.

      On this subject, circle your calendars for Worstern Michigan v. Jordan Lynch next week. If that line isn’t SEC-FCS big it should be many an essay.

      • i not only gave it away but i think i plagiarized it. i’m sure you mentioned this before. sorry about that.

        • Capitalgg

          The wider the audience, the better. The whole point of cheddarbay if to let us all be winners. If you get more eyeballs, which i guess you do, the group wins (until our advice hits critical mass and lines adjust).

          • bupalos

            You mean even I can be a winner?!

            Sign me up.

  • CLEVTA

    Here’s your stat of the day. I sensed that the favorites had an overwhelming edge in the MAC this season so I looked it up. I was correct. In conference games only, the favorites are 31-11-2 in the MAC for a ridiculous 74% clip. NIU is a good chunk of that but even without the fighting Lynch’s favorites are still overwhelmingly good this season.

    • this is the subject of my essay coming up.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Wow!! Did you kids see those Toledo Uni’s? Hard to bet against Toledo He-Men.
    I used to play with a red t-shirt under our whites, pink sweat bands and even pink socks when I could get away with it. I loved replying to the trash talk with “you just got your &%* kicked by a guy with pink socks! So shut up.”
    Komen wants to save “a few of my favorite things”!

  • chuckycrater

    ALL PLAY: Broncos -2.5 vs. Patriots

    Cold weather is a red herring, and really we should all stop revolving our Manning vs. the Patriots narrative around games that took place 10 years ago.

    Oklahoma State +10 vs. Baylor
    Kansas State -3.5 vs. Oklahoma
    Temple -8 vs. UConn
    Bears +1 vs. Rams

    ESSAY: Duke -4.5 vs. Wake Forest

    There have been some strange teams reaching and sometimes even winning the ACC’s title game in recent years, like Boston College (twice!), Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech. This year, though, would be the most ludicrous spin ever of the ACC Wheel of Destiny. Duke is two wins away from the ACC championship game and their first 10-win season ever. Ever! They’ve been playing football continuously since 1920.

    I wasn’t totally sold on the Blue Devils before last week, when they rolled up 48 points and 500+ yards on Miami. Duke knows they control their own destiny and I don’t think they’ll be looking ahead to the regular-season finale against their archrival North Carolina. Meanwhile Wake is just a mess, they can’t run the ball at all or score points, they turn it over too much, and their fans are ready to bail at the slightest hint of trouble. I think Duke rolls here.

  • ChuckKoz

    Falcons +9 (vs Saints)
    Oklahoma St +10 (vs Baylor)
    Cardinals -2.5 (vs Colts)
    49ers -5 (at Redskins)
    AP: Patriots +2.5 (vs Broncos)
    Essay: Nebraska +1.5 (at Penn St)

    Enough of this Penn State nonsense. I realize, unfortunately, they have not collapsed as a program like many predicted (at least not yet). And really the should have shut the program down for a few years. Sadly, though, Ii remember scum media members that claimed this sanction was worse then the death penalty….seems pretty clear that this years success renders that untrue. But no matter the appropriateness of the penalties, the transfers and reduced scholarships must have some impact. So I cannot accept that they are good enough to be favored over Nebraska. Nebraska is a fine team, with 3 reasonable losses (UCLA is good, at Minnesota by a closer margin than PSU lost, and to a superior Michigan St). Meanwhile, PSU’s only win that seems remotely impressive was that game against Michigan where nobody from Mich could make a fieldgoal. Additionally, PSU had its worst loss in school history this year (OSU) and lost by 20 to bottom-feeder Indiana. So the reality is PSU is not good. They will lose. Hence, my pick.

  • Petefranklin

    Franklin new essay pick: IOWA -6, I’m running well tonight and drinking EFW so what can go wrong , right? I LOVED NIU but the market shit on them so in the confluence of liquidity I had to let them go as a best bet. I am now grabbing the hawkeyes as the three pointer. More on this later…..

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Mr Sportsline, I love you, but I need a translator. If you will please elaborate, I will reply with a Lyle living in Brunswick story that you may enjoy.

      • Petefranklin

        Well, I really really really liked NIU to beat Toledo last evening, so much so that I made them my best bet early in the day. Now as the day went on, I noticed that there was a shit ton of mula coming in on Toledo. Don’t ask me how much a shit ton is, but if I had to guess I would say a few ten dime bets on Toledo plus three offshore. Now usually that wouldn’t bother me but the market absolutely finds the right number for a game. There aren’t many mistakes left by gametime, they are usually wiped out early in the day or week.That is unless there is some market manipulation happening, which I deemed to be the case with the early NIU money that showed up(not a shit ton). I liked NIU enough to stick with them, however I just could not see leaving them as my best bet after the market shit all over the huskies, driving the line back past the opener to -1 or even pick. The (liquid) market shifts are my final determiner of who and for how much to bet.I do respect the money, same as the oddsmakers do. Now, about Lyle??

  • GRRustlers

    Week 13 Picks

    Buffalo (Essay) Win – It’s almost like Miami had never seen tape on Mack before.
    Ohio – Loss – Maybe I was wrong about Solich. Another awful performance.

    AP – Patriots (+2.5) over Broncos – Looks at weather forecast for Sunday night in Foxboro. Wonders whey the Broncos did not attempt to hastily construct snow globe for Peyton in the playoffs. If Coach Bill says his focus is on the Broncos right now his focus is on Manning and that’s good enough for me.

    CMU (-10) over UMass – CMU is growing on me.

    49ers (-5) over Washington – Maybe…and stay with me here…we dodged a bullet with RG3. I’ll chalk it up to some kind of cosmic luck and the universe apologizing to us for Holmgren.

    Fresno State (-31) over New Mexico – Another long look at 14 Browns QB Carr.

    Super Bonus CFL Grey Cup Pick

    Saskatchewan (-6.5) over Hamilton – The 2 road underdogs won on Sunday denying us a Calgary vs Toronto final which would have been awesome involving a crackhead mayor. Anyway raise that cup Darian Durant. My favorite CFL player gets it done.

    • “CMU is growing on me” is what Cheddar Bay is all about.

      • GRRustlers

        Got quite a bargain on CMU also…line is up to 13 now.

  • thatsfine

    Previous: Buffalo essay (winner), Kent St. (winner)

    Toledo +2.5 / NIU
    Overall the MAC has been my strong point this year – EXCEPT picking NIU where I
    am 0-3. Thrice this year I’ve picked against the Huskies, and thrice this year they’ve given me a nice big shitburger to eat. You’d think I’d have learned, and you’d be wrong. I’m watching the game either way so might as well make a Cheddar pick for added fun. If Toledo can duplicate last week’s first half effort tonight a SU win is a real possibility. 76% public on NIU at -2.5, a curiously low line in my opinion – it’s like Vegas is giving out a license to print money on this game. Which tells me to take the Rockets.

  • jdoepke

    Toledo +2.5 tonight please.

    • jdoepke

      Well thanks a lot Toledo…another easy win for the masses. How does the fumble by Lynch not get reviewed? Anyway, must move on so here we go:

      Patriots +2.5 (AP)
      Baylor -10
      LSU -4.5
      Hawaii +6.5

      Ole Miss +2.5 (essay)
      This line seems low to me. Mizzou #9 only laying 2.5 and 75% of public on Mizzou, you know the way I lean on these. Give me Ole Miss in the Grove at night catching points. Ole Miss 34 – Mizzou 27

  • squeekycleen

    Starting with a regular play on Toledo.

    Rest to follow tomorrow or Friday.

    • Petefranklin

      Zebras don’t have to look like jackasses if they just happen to not throw any key flags on NIU for holding or PI. A smart ref can control momentum swings without drawing any attention to himself.

      • squeekycleen

        Except we have seen this situation before in this conference and others (Boise, West Vag for two examples) where one team had everything on the line “for the conference” and they lost. Soft fixes happen all the time, but usually at a very personal level where a crooked ref is getting paid on the side, not by the conference. Not to mention this “angle” is held by most of the people wagering on this “must win” “everything on the line” NIU side. I don’t think Vegas is really into making huge mistakes where the perceived better team is also going to get all the calls and guess what is laying only 2.5!! It’s a free money miracle!! NIU is better and its rigged for them! Whether you win or lose, if you bet NIU in this one in the long run you won’t win. Just keep that in mind.

        • Petefranklin

          Uhhh OK? Did you notice the spots that’s the huskies got to start the 4th? Not once but twice. Like I said, changing the momentum.

          • squeekycleen

            i have no idea what you are talking about. toledo got owned in the 4th. the game came down to -4 turnover ratio. despite that, if toledo scores down 17-14 or pins niu deep on the 3rd and 7, they still may pull it out. if you want to think that suspect officiating won it for you, then go ahead. had zero to do with it. congratulations on your big win, it will cost you in the long run.

          • squeekycleen

            meant scores down 21-17. zebras had no impact on this.

          • Petefranklin
          • Petefranklin

            Zebras gave a great spot for the first down to start the 4th. The next sequence had a nicer spot also. I may be wrong but I know I’m right.

          • Petefranklin

            I’m not taking names but I plan on going around!

          • actovegin1armstrong

            PF and Squeaky, please do not disillusion a dum guy like me. Other than the Donawho stuff, is “the fix” really an important cog in the current sports mileau?
            I knew about doper boy Nance Deadwrong way back in 1987, (documentation to prove it) and lovable Lyle in 1976, but the ref’s should be beyond reproach.
            Please guys “say it ain’t so Shoeless Joe”.

          • Petefranklin

            I’m not saying there was a fix, never did. I said that ,exactly as has been noted with NBA refs, they know who the hand that feeds them wants to win in some cases like last nights. I said that the refs can control momentum, whether consciously or not. On the most crucial possession of the game, NIU backed up on it’s own 1, on third down NIU got a FULL yard maybe more, on the spot. It could have been a measurement if the ball was placed right, but it wasn’t needed with the gift yard. A few plays later NIU gets another nice spot that I think gave them a first at their own 40 or so. Now later on they did get a very bad spot or two(in the same drive). Maybe this was a result of knowing they had already gifted NIU and wanted to “even things out”, but the damage was already done IMO, and there was no stopping NIU the rest of the game. I had some money on other games last night and that just happened to be the drive that I started watching intently. If someone has access to the game on DVR please verify or dispute my thoughts.

          • i do remember that spot.

            however the main ‘fix’ i saw was put in place by under armour. “HEY GUYS NEW PINK UNIS YEAH WE KNOW THAT WAS LAST MONTH BUT NEW PINK UNIS!!”

            https://www.nmnathletics.com/sellnew/SellHome.dbml?&_IN_STORE_=YES&_MODE_=AUCTION&DB_OEM_ID=18000

            looks from here like there’s ~90 jerseys up for auction; ~40 with no bid; safe bet under armour did not donate these jerseys/socks/helmets/pants for the cause

            yep, i’m guessing toledo loses money on this pink jersey thing in addition to losing the game. probably paying out $10,000 to give komen $500.

            reminds me of sonny talking to michael at end of godfather2: what’d you go to college to get stupid?

      • actovegin1armstrong

        PF,
        My guess is that you are a grassy knoll guy too. Am i correct?
        I do not believe that officials ever CONSCIOUSLY favor any team.

  • I can’t stay away for tonight’s game: I’m on Toledo.

    In last week’s games NIU was lucky to cover and Toledo had theirs wrapped up in the 3Q. But the final scores say the opposite. Somehow, I think this plus the Jordan Lynch hype is reflected in the line. As we know, MAC lines tend to favor name brands. **cough** Solich. **cough** Vegas books/players know NIU and Lynch. They see Fluellen ‘probable.’ They don’t know Terrance Owens, don’t know star-in-the-making Kareem Hunt, and sure don’t know that Matt Campbell is of the Larry Kehres coaching tree. “What’s a Mt. Union???”

    It’s a big balls ballgame tonight and maybe it’d be smarter to sit it out and look elsewhere for Cheddar picks, but I want in. TOLEDO.

    • Petefranklin

      I know of a solid MAC guy who was solidly on Kent last night and loves the Huskies even more here.

  • Capitalgg

    1. Northern Illinois -2.5 @ Toledo: Shady MAC is shady, Jordan Lynch will not be denied. 1 ticket to New York please. #MACtion

    And speaking of missed opportunities, got busy and never had a chance to look at lines, but would have essayed Kent and taken the fighting Kahlil Macks for a single. Damn you real life!

    Rest will be posted tonight because real life and travel.

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Cap, please do not start a vicious rumor like that!
      I find it very difficult to believe that life is real, but best of luck to you with that anyway.

      • Capitalgg

        Did you know when you have a baby you have to feed that thing like every day. Seriously. And because she eats you have to change diapers at least once a day. What the heck is that? I didn’t sign up for that.

        This life in someone’s imagination is bullshit.

    • Capitalgg

      Week 13:

      All-play: Broncos -2.5 @ Patriots: Roller coaster league says Patriots, but Broncos have been too good. Just don’t think Pats can keep up with Denver’s scoring.
      1. Northern Illinois -2.5 @ Toledo: win
      2. Bowling Green -24 @ Eastern Michigan: Always take the good team in the MAC against a lousy one. Since BG is the 4th best team in the MAC, and Eastern is lousy, well…
      3. Oregon -20.5 @ Arizona: When you fall off a horse you have to get back on. Well, Oregon kicked me last week, but I’m riding again.
      4. Iowa -6 v. Michigan: Iowa is 6-4. Seems pretty average to bad, right? Well take a closer look. The teams that have beaten them are a combined 38-3 (No. Ill., Mich. St., Ohio St., Wisconsin). Michigan is simply a bad team right now. Iowa should win this one with some room to spare.

      GAAAAAAAAHHHH!!! What the hell happened last week? 4 points on MAC games then an absolute bloodbath of a weekend. The 2nd quarter of the Browns-Bengals all-play pretty much summed up my week. Happy freaking birthday to me.

      Then I miss the Tuesday MACtion because my 16 month old and wife insist on eating. Seriously, like every night! So now I’ve got to find another essay.

      And I’ve got to write it now on a Wednesday night because I’ll be traveling to the land of Cleves from my Columbus area home for the greatest event ever created on accident. You see, me and a couple friends decided to go to a Damon’s to watch the OSU-Michigan game 16 years ago this week. And we watched that game and then we watched the 330 games. Then there were some other games. The next thing we knew, it was pushing midnight and we were deliriously watching games we had no idea what was happening in.

      Then we decided that was fun, let’s try it again next year. And that’s how Football-A-Thon became a thing. As any great even, it’s evolved over the years. We no longer sit around and watch football all day in a bar. We’ve since incorporated our fantasy baseball league’s winter meeting into an event that’s become a full weekend. Oh, and we travel. To Northeastern Pennsylvannia; Lexington, Kentucky; Cincinnati; Central Ohio and of course where we return this year. Good ol’ Northeastern Ohio where we will extend to Sunday morning for our first ever Thon NFL Tailgate. So I’ll be busy, drunk and hungover this weekend.

      And that is why I have written this essay on Wednesday. I can’t over think this week, so I narrowed my essay choice to 2 games… MAC or B1G. I lean MAC. I love the MAC. I’ve been successful in the MAC. But the season is late and I need to make a move. I decided it’s time to GO B1G OR GO HOME! And I’m not ready to go home! Please don’t make me go home. Seriously. I want to stay in Cheddar Bay-land where I may be broke but seriously this is better.

      Anyway, I’m putting my essay eggs in a simple premise basket that Michigan St. -7 is the safest bet on the board at rolling dumpster fire Northwestern. Remember 2 months ago before the B1G schedule started and Northwestern was ranked in the teens? Me too barely.

      So what happened? They hit an OSU buzzsaw and got beat up. Then Wisconsin turned those bruises to gaping wounds. And the Wildcats were caught in quicksand. Minnesota, Iowa. Then there was the Hail Mary disaster against Nebraska. But they had a chance to bounce back against Michigan and guh! Overtime on a zero time remaining field goal followed by a loss in the 3rd extra inning.

      And what awaits this snakebitten group? Oh how about a legit top 10 outfit with one of the top 5 defenses in all of college football. Northwestern could only score 9 in regulation against Michigan. They will be lucky to put up that number against Sparty. So that means I’ve got to decide if Sparty can throw 16 on the board. I think they score at least 21, so I’ll lay the TD. #B1G

      Other plays:
      Oklahoma St. +10 v. Baylor
      Iowa St. -5 v. Kansas
      Falcons +9 v. Saints
      Nebraska +1.5 @ Penn St.
      Pitt -1 @ Syracuse
      Browns -2.5 v. Steelers
      49ers -5 @ D.C. NFL

  • actovegin1armstrong

    All Play
    Most of the leading economic indicators point to an impending recession on the part of the Patriots. This game should be an easy win for the Son’s of Horse Face and they should beat Bill’s boys by at least two touchdowns. When almost everything points to a landslide for the popular favorite, I like to look for one hook for the supposedly already beaten underdog.
    I shall take the Pats +2.5
    If WW does not play the Patriots shall have an advantage in that Peyton Whatshisnam will lose his best weapon. If WW plays then the Patriots will have the advantage because it is amazingly difficult to start playing again after a concussion. I have had too many concussions to count and when playing with a concussion or shortly after one, the game moves about 50% faster, one has a feeling of being behind the play, the eight ball and the opponent.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Illinois -6.5 over a shot and a beer
    UCF -17.5 over Rutgers
    Marshall -32.5 over FIU
    TAMU +4.5 over LSU

    Can can not figure out the All Play. I have not heard much about that guy who married a model, or that other guy with the famous father and brother, so I am at a loss on the QB’s. One team has a convalescing coach and the other team has an old Browns’ cast off as a head coach. Their defenses are both very suspect and their weapons on offense leave a lot to be desired. Even relying on my usual lack of research I do not see how either one of these teams ever win a game. This is like a Jacksonville v Tampa Bay All Play. There is very little positive to pick from with these two losers.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    AP: Patriots +2.5
    Thursday: Air Force – 1 vs. UNLV
    Ohio State – 34 vs. Iniana (no D, I’m the funniest)

    Rest later. Lean Toledo tonight but not going against Lynch.

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      Ravens – 3.5 vs. Jets

      Michigan +6 at Iowa

      Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Browns

      The Steelers stink, but they’re playing better. And though Ben is 15-1 against the Browns, the one was in Cleveland in the cold. The Browns do have a very good defensive front and will hit Ben, but can they beat Ben? Can Jason Campbell and Fozzy Whittaker and Greg Little beat anybody (besides Jacksonville?) At this point, I’m just not sure. And I’ll take the points in going for 3 points to find out. The Steelers have the experience on this stage and know they’re out of chances, and here I’m thinking that counts for something against a team that’s better but not there yet. Whether or not Campbell is playing hurt I just don’t think anything I saw last week indicates he can exploit the Steelers weaknesses with this group.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Essay

    ****NIU -2.5 over Toledo**** MACtion

    This is a very tough pick for me, I am a Rocket fan and they shall be sporting some very stylish helmets. They are also a terrific team, but….

    Toledo will have a very difficult time stopping the Huskies. Especially their very talented star Jordan Lynch, he has been one of the best college players in the country this year. (I am not certain what position he plays, I think he may be a Linebacker.) I am hoping that NIU will put a block and a chip, or even a solid double team on Jayrone Elliott and consistently throw a guard at Junior Slyvestre. If NIU can manage to have some semblance of control over these two gentlemen their backs and that linebacker guy may run amok through the Rocket defense.

    I also like Da’Ron Brown, that linebacker guy has been looking for him and trusting him more often to be his primary target.
    Terrance Owens is good, but he is no Keith Wenning.
    Kareem Hunt has had some big holes to run through and he has done a nice job, but he does not strike fear into opposing teams like David Fluellen. Fluellen may play, but coming back from a foot injury may not be easy for a running back.

    Picking with my head, (not exactly my strong point), instead of my heart, I have to go with NIU and I do not see this as the “whomever has the ball last” shoot out that most of the paid pundits are predicting. NIU will win this one with at least a two score advantage.

  • cwonder23

    NIU -2.5
    Baylor -10
    Essay an AP: Broncos -2.5

    • cwonder23

      Full picks:
      NIU -2.5 @ Toledo
      Baylor -10 @ OKSt
      Vanderbilt +3 @ Tenn
      UCLA +3 vs ASU
      Mich St. -7 @ Northwestern
      Essay and AP: Broncos -2.5 vs NE
      Maybe I’m stupid (pretty likely) but I really don’t get this spread. I feel like New England is getting too much love for prior years rather than looking at the team they have on the field. This offense is not the same and their defense isn’t good enough to prevent Manning and Co. from putting up 30 points. I feel like this is a statement game for the Broncos. This is also pretty close to a must win for the Pats which is the only thing that gives me pause with Brady’s track record. I like the All Play this week and love the Broncos covering in Foxboro.

  • Jeff Rich

    I’m on Toledo tonight.

    Broncos on Sunday.

    More to come…

  • Petefranklin

    Do or die essay for me this week so I’ll jump right in. Toledo has been solid this year. I just had a fruedian slip while typing this and actually typed in soild(soiled). That about sums it up in this game. There should be no way that Toledo gets any questionable calls in this game, as we know that the MAC will love the shot of money that another BCS bid will bring. Besides the Rockets not getting any calls, the Huskies should be able to get away with mugging the D Line of Toledo. Lynch is already the best offensive player in the conference, he doesn’t need any extra help. I think this game mirrors the Ball St game of last week. Look for Toledo to hang around for a while until they get overwhelmed by a dose of Lynch, whether by land or air. I also like the fact that Lynch had his best game predating last weeks one vs. the Rockets last year. I also like laying under a field goal here as this one could be tight, especially with NIU coming off of an emotional home win.And as a shout out to Acto, Ive owned a huskie but never owned a rocket so this one is easier than it looks. This may not end up being my strongest play this week but as of now it is so….NIU -2.5 over Toledo.

    • Petefranklin

      I am downgrading this to a single play for 1 point please

      • actovegin1armstrong

        Why did you drop it to 1 pt?

  • I’m in on Buffalo.

  • Nick

    I’m hopping on. Ohio for 1 pt please

  • HitTheHorns

    Ohio -5.5 for one cheddar please.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine:disqus
    Buffalo -24.5 / Miami U. ESSAY
    I said it a few weeks ago, and it bears repeating. I don’t think there is a line that the Redhawks can cover at this point. They are just terrible in every phase of the game. They’re terrible at home, terrible on the road, probably terrible in practice, terrible on the red bricks uptown and in the dining halls and dorms. Sometimes a winless team is “due” or finds a way to turn it around late in the season. Not this team. It’s just been a season so demoralizing that I can’t imagine them showing up against a team that is still playing with bowl aspirations. A team that ended last week with a 2nd half blowout at Toledo. Too bad Buffalo forgot to show up for the first 30 minutes last week. This week just showing up for 30 minutes will probably get the job done.

    • thatsfine

      thatsfine
      Going to make it home in time to watch the games, so might as well make a night of it. Please add Kent +5.5. Ohio U. hasn’t scored a touchdown in 8 quarters. This is Kent’s last game of the year. Tricky stuff, fake punts, statue of liberty plays and shit like that are bound to happen.

      • Two for Tuesday. Well done.

        • thatsfine

          Thus far my proudest moment of Cheddar Bay this season: accurately forecasting a fake punt. The defensive lineman hurdling that tackle attempt basically summed up Ohio U’s implosion nicely.

          I hope that game isn’t the last time I see Dri Archer playing football.

  • zarathustra

    Ohio -5.5 over Kent St***
    Time permitting will be back with an essay but definitely my money pick.

    • zarathustra

      I think it has been a few years now since I last bagged an essay and I’ll be damned if I will deprive anyone of my nonsensical ramblings for such an important mid-week game between two disappointing MAC teams. I had the pleasure of frittering away a lot of government subsidized borrowed money at these two fine institutions. Ahh, the money well-spent on a handful of interpersonal communications classes at o.u. that have proven so invaluable in life. But at least o.u. gave me a degree. All I got from kent was a semester of blacked-out drunkeness and a case of the crabs. Even though kent may have the clear advantage in my personal experiences I have to take the bobcats tonight on the gridiron.

  • Here’s GRR’s essay from the other thread (linked here).

    Early Week 13 Picks

    Ohio (-5.5) over Kent – Rumors of the demise of Solich at OU are quite frankly stupid. He’s not going anywhere and was simply the victim of a road trip to the two places no one wants to go to in the MAC right now. Buffalo and BG are really tough places to play right now. No shame in that. Look for big bounce back from OU at home against a struggling Kent team.

    Essay Pick

    Missed opportunity here for Buffalo. I was really hoping that this would be the game that they would pick 10 random intramural athletes at Buffalo and allow them to team up with Khalil Mack and see if they could beat Miami.

    Miami is historically bad on offense and has little chance of seeing the end zone let alone the Buffalo side of the field. Khalil Mack is the real deal and a 1st round pick in the spring. If you have not watched Buffalo this season he is reason #1A to do so…that being said take anything he does Tuesday night with a grain of salt due to Redhawks offense ineptness.

    Reason #1B to watch Buffalo is Branden Oliver. I kind of like this kid (code for me hoping he does not file a restraining order) and hope that Joe Banner is watching. I would love to pair this kid with Dion Lewis next year. He is a workhorse in every sense of the word.

    I don’t buy for one second that Buffalo gets caught looking ahead to Bowling Green because I think they want to get the taste out of their mouth after that awful 1st half in Toledo last week.

    I feel bad for Miami here but they just have nothing. A battered team simply playing out the string that will be an attractive job for someone this summer because they still have a proud history. Tim Beckman?

    Buffalo (-24.5) over Miami

    Midweek #MACtion reminder: I love NIU. I love Jordan Lynch. I don’t bet or would even risk a single cheddar point on any home game involving Toledo.

    • as you know this (niu/ut) would be my pick for all-play.
      and you’ll never make it not playing that game.

      • GRRustlers

        In a week when we get Baylor vs OSU? Sure…it’s the other OSU but that should be fun.

        You can’t bait me into playing NIU this week but you know I have an opinion on Buffalo/Bowling Green and looking forward to us being on different sides of that one.

        @ClevTA and the past history of Toledo football have scared me off anything involving them. The MAC does enough that makes you scratch your head without Toledo issues.

        • Forward Falcons buddy.

        • thatsfine

          Last week as I watched Toledo blow the 38 point third quarter lead to Buffalo I thought about @ClevTA’s post a few weeks back. They managed to hold on to the cover, but still, makes you a bit uneasy to put any money on the Rockets.

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