#CheddarBay Week 11: Oregon at Stanford on THURSDAY. Look alive.

money2-1

Stretchy dollar girl says: Look Alive! Weekly payout starts now!

Wednesday update

  1. All-play line is:  Oregon -10 at Stanford.
  2. Weekly point spreads are linked here.

Posting early this week due to the Thursday night all play game, Oregon at Stanford.  We’ll use the usual Wednesday morning lines; I’ll update this post and the standings with the lines link tomorrow morning and I’ll tweet it as well.  (FYI, the line is Oregon -10.5 today.)

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Weekly payouts.

A reminder there is $191 to be awarded to the top player(s) this week.  This runs through the end of the regular season (30% of the kitty is dedicated to this).  For example, last week Berger would have collected the whole pot for his Lobsterfest.  This is a good program to keep everyone engaged and especially so this year since Acto and Squeeky have kicked it into beast mode.  Both are 9-1 on their essaypicks, over 60% on the picks overall…; that’s good scrimshaw.

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Just have this uniform already Oregon.

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Stanford/Oregon

“Why is the line so low?” you may ask.  The Ducks average score is 56-17.  Ducks beat common opponents Washington and UCLA much more soundly than Stanford.  Stanford lost to Utah and its vaunted rush defense allowed 176 yards in that game and no 90 yard breakaways either.  Hell, Army had the ball in Stanford territory driving for a game-tying score late in the third quarter1; this really happened, Pate and I were there!

Has Vegas made an error?  Ho-ho-ho… no… no Vegas doesn’t make mistakes friend.  But they sure do seem to want you to play Oregon and that’s alarming.  What’s up with that?

Welp, here’s my guess on the thinking and do with it what you want.  After Stanford’s win at Autzen last year, they gained a reputation as the Zone Read stopper defense.  You can read about slow-playing the zone read option here; here’s a report mentioning that NFL teams have visited Stanford to learn about how to defend ZR, and finally Greg Bedard did a piece on Derek Mason, Stanford’s D Coordinator, here.  The lore holds that Stanford is built to beat Oregon’s offense.  Oh and grass, they’re playing on grass not Oregon’s usual field turf.

Buy it or not, your call.

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Skanky Fish with @ClevTA.

@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

21-17-2 ATS YTD;
1-4 last week:  Memphis (lose), ColoSt (lose), Tenn (lose), Bills (lose), Browns (win).

We’re seeing some Barnwelling2 going on with the Skanky.  But that Bills game… a pick six and a fumble six?  Seriously??  Woof.  Very eager to see what ClevTA’s crystal ball conjures up this week.  Feels like a strong bounce back week.

Skanky Picks
CFB: Pitt, Wyoming, K St
NFL: Rams

.

Alrighty, let’s kill it this week.  Nothing but good scrimshaw.

 

TUESDAY NIGHT MACTION LINES:
BGSU -23.5 at MIAMIO;
OHIO +3.5 at UBUFFALO.
And check out “How #MACtion became a thing” from friend of Cheddar, Zac Jackson.  Must read for MAC junkies. 

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  1. before fumbling and then Stanford immediately scoring a TD and salting the game away. [back]
  2. “regressing to mean” [back]

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  • Art_Brosef

    Welp, Im left to write an essay on this game that I dont really like nor will I watch. But here we go. If theres one game where a team would rally around a disaster, football is it. And no matter how disgusting, the Dophins certainly appear to feel aggrieved at this paticular situation. And for whatever else about Tannehill, hes not Glennon. The Dolphins D should have a field day with him, and this isnt too far of a travel situation and despite it being a Monday night game, how lively will this Bucs crowd even be? Ill take my chances, lay the points, and watch the Cavs.

  • clayII

    Essay
    TB (+2.5) / Dolphins
    When is a good time to take an 0-8 team for your essay play? Tonight. Bucs might be best 0-8 team ever. Lost by 1 to Jets, 2 to Saints, 3 to Arizona, and by 3 in OT last week at Seahawks. I like Glennon and Mike James, who rushed for 150 yds vs Seahawks. Dolphins missing 2/5 of their o-line, was able to make it work vs Bengals, but TB has had a week to see how they did it, and should exploit the shit out of it at home tonight.

  • bupalos

    I’ll try to bring my week back to treading-water status with the bucs tonight. I hope I’m getting at least 5 points, but I didn’t even look it up, just assuming since every single game this week bounced the Browns way that this one will too. This could be a key one in keeping the Dolphins off the 9-7 wildcard to which we aspire, which is important since they hold our tiebreaker. #thanksWeeds

    Ick. +2.5? What kind of a bullcrap line is that for an 0-8 v 4-4? Ah well, we’ll let it ride.

  • CLEinMPLS

    I will take the Saints tonight for my last pick, Kanick. Thanks.

  • CLEVTA

    Damn there were 3 bad action plays out there-Rams, Steelers and Packers. Of course I pick the one with the starting QB going down in the first.

  • Philly +1.5 @ Green Bay
    Seattle -6 @ Atlanta
    San Francisco -6 vs. Carolina
    New Orleans -6.5 vs. Dallas
    Miami -2.5 @ Tampa Bay

    Will try to make New Orleans the essay pick since the game is not until tonight

  • bobby_slick

    Oregon (L)
    FSU (W)
    LSU (L)
    Kansas State (W)

    Bengals -1.5
    Saints -6.5***

    Saints are tough at home, period! Brees has no trouble finding his targets down the field in NO and the Dallas secondary has been abused all season long. The Cowboys are last in the league in yards allowed per game and the Saints are 7th in yards per game. Rob Ryan knows this offense better than anyone and will have his D in a good spot to stop Romo. Not to mention he is going to be fired up after Jerry Jones said he wanted a less aggressive defense. Well, see Kiffin, Monte for said defense…Brees and the Saints destroy the Dallas secondary for a big win today.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    I’m a little late here, sorry
    Eagles +1.5 Pack
    Ravens +1.5 Bengals
    ***Saints –6.5 Cowboys
    I’ll stay with NO for another week, especially at home in dome in primetime. Really hoping Jimmy G. is a go today, but even without him this may be a double digit win for the Saints. I’m a sucker for smart and dependable, QB-wise and otherwise, so here I am again. If Brees stays healthy, they should easily win their division, and can start to pull away from Carolina after the Panthers lose in San Fran today.

    Even if Rob Ryan doesn’t need to show up Jerry Jones for firing him last year (and should probably thank him) you know his players would like nothing better. Chuckycrater covered his predecessor very nicely, so I’ll just add that this year’s Cowboy D isn’t the worst, just the second worst – ranked 31st. The secondary has allowed 300+ passing yards per game. Peyton Manning had his way with them, and Brees will do the same.

    Time to reach out to my WI family and extended family with survival tips and coping mechanisms when you haven’t a QB.

  • Matt Borcas

    Eagles +1.5 over Packers
    Ravens +1.5 over Bengals

    Earlier picks:
    Stanford (win)
    Auburn (win)
    ND (lose)

  • Concierge

    Bills +3 Essay

    Just going with the better team here getting their starting QB back. The bills should win this game outright. The steelers just aren’t the Steelers of old. I think the Patriots are still scoring on them as we speak. The defense has been horrendous and the bills should be able to move the ball with ease. Kiko Alonzo has been a beast on defense for them all year and I think he creates havoc on Big Ben.. Plus all the wise guys in vegas say the bills are the play… So you know what? LETS GO BUFFALO!!

  • CLEVTA

    So much bad action to choose from for my last pick of the week. It’s funny, one week after admonishing the cheddarers’ for ganging up and taking Oakland over Philly unanimously (Philly obviously destroying Oakland), now we have unanimous Philly over GB support! If you can’t figure out how vegas books make all the caaash on short term public perception…. Give me GB -1.5. Expect Lacy to run for about 150+ and Seneca to manage the game with major WR/DB advantages all over the field. Clay and Nick Perry back just in time for the Pack defense to slow down Chip’s offense.

  • bupalos

    The best cheddar on the board this week looks to me like bills+3. Its hard to think the steelers aren’t getting some reputation points, because that line continues in disaster mode and the bills have a pretty nice front. Pitts best play continues to be to drop back and let things fall apart and hope big Ben can find something in the rubble. They are lucky he keeps finishing games. That big siphilus- wracked frame has to give out sooner than later. Meanwhile the bills have played tough in pretty much every game this year, regardless the opponent, mostly done in by bad qb play. But manuel returns this week to patch their only serious gaping hole. Bills outright for 3 big cheddars.

    We’ll also go way to optimistic and hope the ratbirds can do us a solid against the Bengals. Back to pick another one later.

  • Petefranklin

    Pick#6 Falcons+6

  • HitTheHorns

    St. Louis Rams +9 for one cheddar please.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Colts -9
    Steelers -3
    Eagles +1.5

  • trashycamaro

    AP/College Pick: Stanford over Oregon (W)

    NFL #1/Essay: @TEN -11.5 over JAX Jags. on the road? I’m down with that. Sometimes you have to take the gifts that are given to you. Locker’s back in the fold, Britt’s been pushed behind Wright and Washington, Levitre and Warmack together with a 6′ CB in McCourty are Kanick’s wet dream. What is not to love here? I mean, Locker is even completing over 60% of his passes and Chris Johnson proved he was not dead last week, puting 150 yards on the board on the strength of a 6.5 YPC.

    Meanwhile, Justin Blackmon has proved he was worth less than TRich by taking a seat for the rest of the season (let’s see the Jags get a 1st round pick for him!), Chad Henne is their best option at QB, MJD is barely above the TRich line and is being backed up by a dude that played QB in the Big Ten last year.

    Pulling out some football outsiders stats, TEN is running #27 with JAX at (surprise!) #32. That said, the raw number is TEN at -14 and JAX at -66.3, for a difference of 52.3. For some statistical fun, this means that TEN is closer to first place DEN than last place JAX.

    If there is any life to be seen from JAX in this game, they are the proud holders of an above average special teams rank (#16, 0.2%), while the Titans are coming in at number 29. Does this mean TDs for JAX? No, it just means they will get 8 yards per punt return to TEN’s 6.

    Look for TEN to blow past their 21.6 ppg average this season while the Jags stick right around their 10.8 mark.

    NFL #2: @SD +6.5 over DEN. I like home dogs. SD feels like a poor man’s version of Indy, the type of team with the offense to give Denver fits.

    NFL #3: OAK +7 over @NYG. I don’t like picking this game. I just like picking it more than all the other ones.

    NFL #4: @ATL +6 over SEA.I like home dogs. SEA has been less than stellar on the road, and the once formidable Falcons have got one last fight in them.

    NFL #5: @CHI +3 over DET. I like home dogs. Smokin’ Jay Cutler is going deep on the vulnerable secondary of DET to Jeffery and Marshall all day. Hopefully the Bears can figure out a way to contain Reggie Bush like every other team in the league for the past 8 years.

  • oxr

    All-Play Stanford (W) – woe, woe, woe. Anyhow:

    Eagles +1.5 over Packers – a shameful pick
    Bengals -1.5 over Ravens
    Cardinals -3 over Texans
    Broncos -6.5 over Chargers

    Essay: Bills +3 over Steelers – I don’t really love any of these picks, but the Bills have been impressing me lately and, whether it’s brand recognition or a bunch of garbage points against New England, Pittsburgh is getting a whole lot of respect with this line. One has to hope that Buffalo’s inexperienced yet highly-touted rookie QB will be more capable than their inexperienced UDFA QB (who, let’s not forget, still didn’t suck at, say, a Gabbertian level). Last week the Chiefs needed two defensive TDs to win: a miraculous (if, like me, you had the Chiefs) 99-yard Jeff Tuel pick-6 that kept the Bills from going up 17-3, and a Tamba Hali scoop-and-score. Absent such non-predictive events, this week the generally moribund Steelers will need to convert a few big pass plays and I’m hoping Williams & Williams get in the backfield before that can happen. Also, who knows, perhaps Kiko Alonso will salvage some Oregon pride for the weekend. (I will be drinking with a Stanford-alum friend who, mercifully, is always very gracious about this sort of thing.)

  • HitTheHorns

    HitTheHorns:

    Alabama -11.5 for our essay this week. Taking the week off from writing one.

    One more pick tomorrow.

  • rodofdisaster

    Oregon (loss)

    Fresno St -9
    Arizona +1

    Seahawks -6
    Bengals -1.5**ESSAY**
    Raiders +7

    I don’t think that people appreciate how vulnerable the defending Super Bowl champions are. The defense has remained inconsistent with weak play in the back seven. While Andy Dalton and Co. have been up and down this year, there is considerable familiarity with the Ravens and I suspect that the Ravens defense will have trouble containing the skill players of the Bengals. Expect that the Bengals will score early and often. I think that the Ravens lack team speed. This should be evident all day. Expect the Ravens to score threes with Justin Tucker. You just can’t win when the other guys are scoring sevens.

  • Petefranklin

    Franklins Cheddar play #5 VaTech +6.5 over Miami of Fla. Hokies pass D will stifle the Canes QB Morris who will be forced to do more than he is capable of today with the injury to leading RB Duke. Morris has been picked off 8 times in the last 4 games.The Hokies have the #1 pass defense in the country. Va Tech ….outright.

  • bupalos

    4 week layoff from camp Randall =Bucky romps. Wiscy -7.

  • mrickman

    usc -16
    ulm -4.5
    vt +6.5
    seahawks -6
    ucla -1
    it certainly hasn’t been a good season for brett hundley’s pro prospects, but there is still a significant amount of talent on this ucla team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. while rich rodriguez has done a good job stabilizing the arizona program, ucla is playing for a shot at the pac-12 title game still, and after being thrown to the wolves against oregon and stanford, sheer talent alone should allow the bruins to make it to their nov. 23 game vs. arizona state in good shape to make that game matter. with anthony barr and myles jack, i expect ucla to play physical football and bury arizona in the second half.

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Oregon – oops.
    Navy -16.5 over Hawai’i (thanks to our men and women in uniformed service)
    Notre Dame +4 over Pitt
    Colts -9 over Rams
    Bills +3 over Steelers
    Essay: Tampa Bay +2.5 over Dolphins

    This all-Florida Monday Night game is more appropriately called the Train Wreck Bowl given the situations hanging over each team. I’d still take the Dolphins and spot the Bucs a FG however given my nose-dive in essay picks (and nose-dive in general) I decided to make my decision, then do the opposite of what I had decided. Upon further refection this game presents a weak Bucs team with a winnable game – at home, prime time audience (well, maybe the ratings won’t nearly be as high as Cowboys-Giants), and they showed they can play last week against Seattle.

    • bupalos

      Liked for fading yourself!! This strategy almost saved my season last year!

      • Jonathan MacDonald

        Ha! I need the Bucs to win (or cover) to save myself from a Virgin Lobsterita bath, and to keep my season on life support.

  • dwhalen

    Texas Tech -3 v. Kansas State.

    BYU +7.5 @ Wisconsin. Really like that extra .5 here.

    Texas A&M -19 v. Mississippi State. Dan Mullen doesn’t have the boys playing very well this year. A&M hasn’t scored less than 41 points in any game this season.

    $$$ Notre Dame -4 @ Pitt. $$$
    I’M DOING THIS. Frosh Tarean Folston has looked pretty legit after finally getting some backfield time. I realize it was against Navy and Air Force, but he’s a freshman and he gives the backfield a spark. A running game here down the stretch could really give Tommy Rees a shot to look better than shitty (and I believe he is shitty). I also think ND isn’t very good. But they’re my team. And they’re 7-2. And a 2-loss ND team always has a chance to get into a BCS bowl. Even if it’s undeservedly. And it is. They’ll beat Pitt handedly, and they’ll lose to Stanford in a few weeks.

    EAGLES +1.5 @ PACKERS. Seneca Wallace vs. the ALMIGHTY NICK FOLES.

  • bupalos

    Minnesota this afternoon please

  • clayII

    Stanford – Win
    Wake (+34.5) / Florida St
    USC (-16) / Cal
    Syracuse (+6) / Maryland
    Arizona St (-7) / Utah
    NFL essay to follow

  • Concierge

    Auburn today.

  • munasrevenge

    – Wisconsin (-7.5) vs BYU (Wisconsin continues to be severely underrated, even as they cover well week after week. BYU is a good solid team, but Wisconsin has them beat in every area.)
    – Utah State (-13.5) @ UNLV (See last week’s blurb. UNLV has a record much better than what they are, as competent teams have been handling them easily all season.)
    – North Texas (-25) vs UTEP (North Texas has a nice little team going down there, and UTEP is UMass levels of awful.)

    – Cardinals (-3) vs Texans

    –Stanford (+10) over Oregon (W)

    — A lot of college action I like this week, so it took some work to pare down my options. But there never was too much competition for my essay this week. Sometimes when lines seem suspiciously low, it’s best to just stay away because there is some info that you’re not seeing, and especially in a contest like this one, why risk on some “unknown unknowns” when there is other tempting fruit to pick. But I’m pretty confident that this line is low for one main reason: Iowa looked pretty bad last week. However, Iowa has lost 4 games to teams with a combined 3 losses on the season (OSU, Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin last week) and three of those four teams have defenses that rank in the top 10 for both YPG and PPG. Wisconsin continues to be criminally underrated (again, were it not for the worst reffing you will see this year they would have one close loss to OSU and probably be in or near the top 10 right now), and so Iowa’s ugly loss last week makes them look “bad” in the eyes of Average Joe Bettor. Iowa’s defense, even after facing these teams, still ranks 12th and 16th in YPG and PPG respectively. Purdue hasn’t had a red zone snap since Septmeber 28th. SEPTEMBER. There is absolutely nothing Purdue has done lately, or frankly all season, to make me think anyone could value them as a sleeper with a bad draw. They’re offense is 3rd or 4th worst in college football depending on if you look at PPG or YPG (thanks FIU, Miami OH and USF!) and the nicest thing you could say is that their defense is “only” 87th in YPG, as opposed to their 111th ranked PPG defense. I hate being the numbers/stats guy, but I can’t emphasize enough how ludicrous it is that Iowa is only laying 14.5 here. Especially with a little wind today, it would be a slight miracle if Purdue can even manage to score, and a major miracle if they can break 10 points. Even though their own offense is hardly prolific, Iowa might be able to cover this one on field goals alone. (And remember, a full THIRD of Iowa’s offensive statistics are against top 10 defenses). I will probably be ranting to my friend about this game all day (which means Drew Brees will descend from the heavens at halftime and lead Purdue to a comeback backdoor cover or something, so caveat emptor).

    —Iowa (-14.5) @ Purdue

  • Bevilacqua

    Bevilacqua

    Let’s just pretend I took Oregon and move on.

    Tennessee (+7) over Auburn

    Eastern Michigan (+2.5) over Western Michigan
    Just for fun: two shitty teams from that state up north. Michigan vs Michigan State? This is the true Michigan vs. Michigan rivalry.

    Oklahoma State (-31) over Kansas

    Colts (-9) over Rams
    What am I missing here? The line actually went down from 13? Whatever.

    Essay: Central Florida (-10.5) over Houston

    I’m not sure yet, but Central Florida seems really really good. They’ve beaten Penn State, Louisville, and lost to South Carolina by 3. I look forward to taking them and the points against whatever BCS bowl opponent they find themselves playing. Meanwhile, Houston only beat the 1-6 Memphis Tigers 25-15 and the 1-8 Temple Owls 22-13. So even though they both have shiny one-loss records, Central Florida’s looks a lot better (granted, UCF only beat Memphis 24-17, but whatever, let’s pretend I omitted that detail). Sure, I’d rather not give that pesky extra half-point (an even 10 always looks better), but I won’t that sway me from my gut feeling. And if that half-point comes back to haunt me? Well, I guess that’s just the way my picking career goes.

  • Vikings +2.5 (W)
    Stanford +10 (W)

    ESSAY: Utah +7 over Arizona State

    I hate this week’s slate, especially in the NFL, and I hate essaying games that I can’t watch on TV but this one’s the best I can come up with. I haven’t seen either of these teams play this season, but I know that Arizona State has been running really hot the last few weeks in some extremely favorable matchups (50+ points in 4 of their last 5) and Rice-Eccles should be a tough place for them to come into and sustain that kind of momentum. On the other side, Utah will be getting starting QB Travis Wilson back and healthy off the bye week after having him missing and/or injured in their last two games, both losses. Wilson started the USC game two weeks ago but was pulled in the 2nd quarter due to the sprained finger that he was “obviously struggling” with (that had knocked him out of the Arizona game the week before), and Utah couldn’t get a thing going on offense with their backup QB after that. Take away their last two games and Utah’s only losses are by a TD v. UCLA before UCLA suffered all those injuries, and an OT loss by a field goal v. Oregon State. This is the same team that beat Stanford a few weeks ago (also at Rice-Eccles), and the disparate results against USC (Arizona St. killed them) can be further explained by Kiffin’s termination. Utah’s back at home after 2 games on the road and a bye week to regroup. A win here will be big for the Utes in terms of getting to a decent bowl game. Kyle Whittingham is a legit head coach. Tough spot for the Sun Devils to be laying a whole touchdown.

    LSU +11.5 over Alabama: Thought hard about essaying this but taking double digits here seems too easy (especially after the Ore/Stan result) and the line move up seems too funny.

    Falcons +6 over Seahawks: Thought even harder about essaying this. The Seahawks are a mess on the OL, and won’t have C Max Unger this week. The Falcons, meanwhile, have had a chance to recover/adjust a bit from the rash of injuries they suffered early, there’s the Seahawks playing on the east coast at 1 thing, Roddy White is back, and the Falcons won’t turn the ball over 4 times again tomorrow (8 turnovers for the Falcons in the last two weeks has to even out). But Seattle’s been too cold ATS the last few weeks (in the last six weeks the Seahawks have only won one game by more than one score) for me to feel good about essaying against them here against a Falcons team that’s still not great at all.

    Miami Incognitos +2.5 over Tampa Jank Schianos: Brandon Marshall is the man. http://deadspin.com/brandon-marshall-on-the-culture-of-the-nfl-is-brillia-1461052472?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_facebook&utm_source=deadspin_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

    • Sorry, the Incognitos are -2.5.

      Also, who knew, but the Utes have a beast punter named Tom Hackett who just booted a 70 yarder that wasn’t returned. He entered the day with 11 50-yard punts, which led the Pac-12.

    • Please replace my Falcons pick with Rams +9 over Colts. A lot of points to give a team that might have an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Thanks.

      • This Jags win gives me pause in going against the Jank Schianos and wagering on bumfights is sort of unseemly anyway. Will take Cowboys +6.5 over Saints instead. Demarcus Ware is back tonight after having missed a few weeks. Saints receivers are all kinds of banged up. The Cowboys’ numbers against the pass isn’t something that’s not already accounted for in this line. Murrca’s Team on Veterans Eve just feels right.

  • zarathustra

    Duke -9.5 over NC St***
    Last week I had North Carolina over nc state pencilled in as my essay, but got seduced by my own words when picking the bengals on Thursday and came back and made it my essay. I was chasing the red line (a win would have put me on it.) The bengals were the correct side and I would pick them again but it was still the type of undisciplined move that sent me in a cheddar tailspin. The wolf pack offense is hopeless, but the defense is pretty solid. But duke has put up some nice numbers on better defenses than this. I will lay the points.

    BYU +7.5 over Wisconsin
    Gary Andersen is very familiar with bronco mendenhall and this byu team. This will be at least his third straight year facing them. He wasn’t able to beat them the last two years but this time he is home with a more talented team than he had at Utah st. Every quote from Gary Andersen that I see indicates that he expects a tough close game. The badgers should win, but I like the number.

    Penn St +2.5 over Minnesota
    Penn St has shown no evidence that they should be trusted on the road and Minnesota is coming off three straight upset victories. That’s enough for me.

    LSU +11.5 over Alabama
    I will have a bit on the moneyline here as well. My concern here is that mettenberger starts climbing up draft boards after this one and the browns can’t get him. Oh well. KP1 should still be around with the colts pick.

    49ers -6 over Panthers
    I like the Panthers and can see them making some noise in the playoffs. This winning streak may have been against shitty teams but they have dominated said shitty teams so you certainly can’t hold that against them. They have been getting a ton of media attention and seem to be a popular dog this week. Enter the best team in the league off a bye and starting to get healthy. On the west coast. I know it’s only an afternoon game, but in the second half circadian rhythms could come into play. The last time carolina travelled across this many time zones they laid an egg. I’m happy to lay less than seven.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Iowa -14.5 (essay)

    Purdue is so bad it’s almost painful to watch. I kind of felt guilty watching the Buckeyes destroy those guys last week. Iowa is coming off a loss, and they are going to take their frustration out on this Purdue squad. I really like DH, but my God does he have his work cut out for him with this program in West Lafayette. Iowa played both OSU and Wiscy tough for 3 qtrs, so it’s not like they are dog shit or anything. Sounds like Rudock will play for Iowa, and even if he wasnt I would still make this pick. This game should be over midway through the 3rd.

  • FTCMikeD

    FTCMikeD take 2:
    Baylor (W)
    Oregon (L)

    K St +3 over @TTU
    *****@Ole Miss – 15.5 over Ark
    @TAMU – 19 over Miss St

    Panthers +6 over 49ers

    *****First thing is that Ark QB Brandon Allen is not very good. The rest of the Ark players are not that good either. They seem to be recovering from the disaster of last season, but are not quite there yet. Ole Miss has had a week off so they should be very prepared for this game. Remember they beat LSU a few weeks ago, so they can definitely play. Ole Miss covers the points.

  • TheKardiacKid

    TheKardiacKid:
    Notre Dame: -4 @Pitt
    UCLA -1 @Arizona
    Eagles +1.5 @GB
    @Cardinals -3 vs Texans
    Essay:
    @Texas Tech -3 vs Kansas State
    Time to return the Kingsbury swag to Lubbock after two losses to Oklahoma teams. Davis Webb needs to rebound from an awful game last week at Oklahoma State and I think Kingsbury has just enough swag to help him do it. Texas Tech has a big game against Baylor next week, Oliver Stone just phoned me to tell me that the College Gameday set is prepared to leave for Waco at 12 noon. Back and to the Left, Back and to the Left.

  • HitTheHorns

    HitTheHorns:

    WVU +6.5

    Wyoming +9

  • Petefranklin

    AP) Stanford (W)
    #2 Oklahoma (L)
    #3 Kansas St +3
    #4 Mizzou -14, one of these will be my essay

    • Petefranklin

      Essay Kansas St +3 @ Texas Tech.The thing I like most about this bet is the line value I’m taking here with the key number of three, as every shop is at 2.5. My live odds service says that 69% of public play is on tech, but the line moved off of the key #3 in this case.KSU has been a covering machine lately, beating the spread in it’s last 4 games by 43points. The cats are also11-3 ATS as dogs on the road since HC Snyder returned.Tech is still overvalued based on an easy schedule. If that’s not enough for you, the Cats have beaten Tech by a combined score of 96-58 the last two years. KSU +3 for threeeeeee!!!

  • 1. BGSU (win)
    2. Oregon (loss)

    3. ***@Bama -11.5 LSU

    “God has made us for civilizing the world. Woe and death to all who resist my will.”
    –Nick Saban

    Haha, just kidding that was Kaiser Wilhelm II. But we are under a 4 TD spread at Tuscaloosa, thus Bama covers. The line is about two touchdowns so they cover by three. If it were four they’d cover by four or five.

    The thing today for Saban is to stop all the “FSU should be ranked in front of Bama” nonsense.

    I think I should spare you all the analytical approach to this game. See my Oregon/Stanford take for my analytical prowess and the BallSt/CMU aborted essay before that. My analysis is for shit this week.

    Nope, it’s better I say it in LSUfreek GIFs.

    Other games:
    4. Auburn -7 @ Tennessee; Love watching Malzahn’s offense. If Bama gets derailed it’s in the Iron Bowl.
    5. @TAMU -19 MissySt; Home finale for Manziel.
    6. Bills +3 @Steelers; EJ Manuel return seems undervalued.

    Also playing Army, Wake, Minny, OleMiss, Wisc, ASU, Miami, LaTech, UCF, USU, UCLA, Fresno, Panthers, Giants, Eagles.

    • zarathustra

      Lol. No worries. I made the pick. I didn’t have much of an opinion on either side so I was happy to follow what was a good argument–which it was.

  • pateslvrblk

    Texas Tech -3 over Kansas St
    Auburn-7 over Tennessee U
    Mississippi -15.5 over Arkansas
    Colts-9 over Rams
    *** Missouri-14 over Kentucky

    Missouri should have no problem focusing on beating Kentucky. If the Tigers win, most likely they will go on to play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Missouri is not only winning, it is dominating opponents. All eight victories have come by 15pts or more this year. The Tigers are outscoring most opponents by 20pts per game. Last year the Tigers won over the Wildcats 33-10. Tigers are going 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games. It’s a home game for Kentucky but this late in the season and crowds get noticeably slimmer with struggling teams, giving the advantage to the Tigers.

  • Rich Swerbinsky

    Crap, missed the Thurs night all play. Other five …

    Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5
    Navy Midshipmen -17
    Central Florida Knights -10.5
    Arizona Wildcats +1.5
    *** Baltimore Ravens +2

    Bengals defense is ravaged with injuries. Ravens season is on the line this week, at home, and they’ve lost their last three by a combined 11 points. Flacco > Dalton. Ravens have owned the Bungles in Crackmore. Ravens 27 Bengals 17.

  • p_forever

    Oregon -10 stanford (cripes those stupid ducks and super cripes re my good intentions of choosing baylor as my essay pick foiled by the life of p)

    ND -4 pitt*****

    This line can’t be about what has actually happened on the field this year – Pitt is 4-4 and coming of losses to Navy and Ga.Tech. and ND is 7-2 and just won 5 in a row. I suppose, like many things ND, this line is about history and lore, and about “pitt
    always playing ND tough.” if I were acto sitting pretty up in the cheddar bay rankings, I’d have the luxury of picking based on history and lore. But from way
    way down where I sit, I’ve got to stick to the x’s and o’s. the only thing that stands between ND and a cover is QB tom savage having the game of his life, and that isn’t going to happen against ND’s defense (banged up as it is). the better, deeper team finds a way to grind out wins, and that’s what’s going to happen here.

    Fla St. -34.5 wake

    UCF -10.5 houston

    Nebraska +7 michigan

    Bengals -1.5 baltimore

  • USFCollin

    SMU +8.5 over Cincinnati. SMU is streaky as hell, but even USF moved the ball a bit on Cinci and that was with maybe the worst QB in Division I at the time.

    USC -16 over Cal. C.A.L. Crappy Awful Losing football. They suck on ice.

    Fresno State -9 over Wyoming. Fresno was crazy unlucky last week not to cover 20. That won’t happen again.

    Miami -2.5 over Tampa Bay. I’m going to this game, which will be the worst football game in the history of Monday Night Football. There might be a fight between the teams. There might be a fight between players on the same team. Greg Schiano could get fired at any point during the contest. Gonna be a weird one.

    Essay: Vandy +10 over Florida. Both these teams aren’t very good, but UF shouldn’t be laying 10 to anyone that’s got a team where the majority of players are legal to vote. Tyler Murray is atrocious as a QB, and the Gators average only 6.98 yards per pass attempt and 3.7 yards per rush, but those numbers actually decrease every week. And they haven’t played anyone that good either. Plus the rumors we’re hearing around here say that the Gators are basically in full turmoil in the locker room, and they’re starting to eat their own in Gainesville. Not a lot of faith in the coaching staff, and the defense thinks the offense blows goats. That’s not true: The offense blows elephants.

    Vandy does turn it over a lot, but less and less each week and seem to be improving. Both teams going in opposite directions, and I don’t see how UF can beat anyone borderline competent by double digits right now.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine
    Finishing things off…
    Earlier Winners: CMU, BGSU, Losers: Oklahoma, Oregon (what a solid beatdown… how the hell did Utah beat Stanford?)

    SMU +8.5 / UC
    Saints -6.5 / Cowboys – It’s less than 1TD in the Dome. Not going to overthink this one.

  • CLEVTA

    Making this brief due to other obligations:
    Skanky Picks
    CFB: Pitt, Wyoming, K St
    NFL: Rams

    • Petefranklin

      My live odds says 68%on TTech

      • Petefranklin

        Closed at an ungodly 88%. Nice spot there TA.

  • Peter Markos

    CENTRAL FLORIDA -10.5 OVER HOUSTON
    UCF IS THE CLASS OFTHE CONFERANCE. HOUSTON HAD A TOUGH TIME BEATING USF. UCF SHOULD POUND IN THEM THE DIRT.
    LOUISVILL -28 OVER UCONN
    COLTS -10 OVER RAMS
    TITANS -13 OVER JAGS
    BRONCOS -7 OVER CHARGERS

    • chuckycrater

      I know it’s a typo, but it was a fantastic typo. “POUND IN THEM THE DIRT.” Good hashtag, too.

      #POUNDINTHEMTHEDIRT

  • chuckycrater

    All Play was Oregon -10. (makes Sideshow Bob rake in the face noise)

    The rest of my picks:
    Arizona +1 vs. UCLA
    Louisiana Tech -14.5 vs. Southern Miss (do you know how much you have to suck to get me to bet on Skip Holtz?)
    Eagles +1.5 vs. Packers
    Falcons +6 vs. Seahawks

    ESSAY: Saints -6.5 vs. Cowboys

    I am really enjoying the Monte Kiffin era in Dallas. In just nine games they’ve already allowed four 400-yard passing games and gave up a smooth 623 yards to the Lions two weeks ago, the most in team history. (Yards are an overrated stat these days, but there were 0 garbage yards in that total.) Last week Romo had to bail them out of an embarrassing would-be home loss to the Christian Ponder Vikings. Monte is done and it delights me, because he quit on the 2008 Bucs to go help his dumbass son at Tennessee. The day the news broke that he was leaving, Tampa Bay beat the Saints to go 9-3. They lost their last four games, the defense was lousy in three of them, Gruden got fired, and the Bucs have been horrible ever since. I guess what I’m saying is go to hell, Monte, and Drew Brees is going to torch your beat-up secondary and your obsolete defense.

  • ChuckKoz

    Connecticut +27.5
    Oklahoma State -31
    UCLA -1
    Wyoming +9
    AP: Oregon (clearlu game of the week but Thursday all play totally sucks)
    Essay: Buccaneers +2.5
    I don’t care about the alleged locker room drama or turmoil. In fact that could work to the Dolphins advantage. But the reality is, Miami has been struggling of the past month. And now they have no left side of the line. Compare that to Tampa showing great signs of like last week in their shockingly close loss to Seattle. Add in some home field advantage, which may not be overwhelming in Tampa this year but should be real on a Monday night holiday where nobody works so there is extra time to get loaded up, and Tampa looks nice without the moral consideration. Then add in the fact that Miami seems to be run by a bunch of dicks and the choice is easy.

  • Jeff overberger

    I already picked Oregon and Washington this week via twitter so I pretty much don’t have any reason to pick any more games but here they go.

    Iowa NCAA
    Eagles NFL
    Broncos NFL
    Colts NFL Essay

    This ones for you Bernie. The Rams have a “horrible” QB throwing to “horrible” WR’s. The Colts have Andrew Luck. The only thing going for the Rams is they will have a half filled statdium with their fans in it. I really think it will only take 3 touchdowns by the Colts to cover the 9 points.

    Bernie Kosar on Clemens signing an Autograph for the Pope –
    “Bless me Father for I have sinned. I have to watch him the whole fourth quarter.”

    I have no plans to watch any quarter of this game. Rams are awful.

  • Katie O.

    Football, you’re losing me, man. Between the Steelers waiving Zoltan Mesko and Tony Dorsett being unable to remember how to get his daughters to practice after driving that route for years, I’m more skeptical of football than ever. I’ve always thought America’s favorite sport was a little too close to Roman-esque gladiator type stuff. I’m not sure when the shift began but I’d be surprised if I’ve got five years left in me to watch players brutalize their bodies for insatiable amounts of money and our entertainment. I’m not sure what price tag you can put on remember who your wife and children are until the day you leave this world. It’s a wild turn of emotions when I see a hard hit – I have an initial reaction of “Yeah! What a hit! Take him down!” and then, almost immediately, the brainwashed cheerleader instinct in me subsides, and I feel sick to my stomach because that man is someone’s son, sibling, uncle, husband, dad, fishing buddy. He’s somebody to someone and as a result of that hit and the accumulation of many inevitable others, he may not be able to be that someone to somebody well before his time. My only hope is the sport evolves and the fans are supportive of the rules to “wussify” and “water-down” continue to be instituted.

    I’d like to think I’m not standing on a soapbox yet. Rather, I’m in the process of building one and I would prefer not to get on it, please.

    My Picks

    All Play- Picked Stanford last night on Twitter, so I’m off to very auspicious beginnings.

    Kentucky +14 vs. Mizzou – Because that’s where Rani Peffer, the current Jeopardy champion went and her hubby is a professor there. This is what she said (in complete deadpan) about meeting him, “When I talked to him…he was so much like myself, it was like looking in a mirror. And I couldn’t resist the idea of spending the rest of my life with myself.” He also proposed to her by putting the ring in the fries of her favorite fast food place – I’m grateful Nick didn’t go the food route.

    Vanderbilt +10 vs. Florida – Because the CMT awards were in Nashville this week and I’m tired of people hating on country music. If you don’t like it, don’t listen to it. I do not typically choose to listen to country music in my free time but I have been to those concerts, there are two-story beer bongs from two-story decks built to fit on the back of pick-up trucks. Let them be, they’re doing good things.

    K State +3 vs. Texas Tech – Here’s to swimming upriver

    Dolphins -2.5 vs. Buccaneers – Just loved the Grand Rapids Rustler essay so much

    Essay Pick: LSU +11.5 vs. Alabama

    Here’s why LSU will cover the spread –

    There was an obnoxious Jeopardy contestant from Alaska who was a Tide fan and I didn’t really care for her. She didn’t even go there. Alabama loses points for bandwagon fans who could only win one round of Jeopardy. They need some quality Jeopardy contestant fans, who can win three in a row- like Rani who is on right now- a fiery financial manager.

    This is a pick of passion, I just love LSU – the French references, the bold colors, Raising Cane’s, and the fact I had a girlfriend pass out from drinking too much at the game and I recieved a picture of her from the clinic inside of the stadium with the mascot, Mike the Tiger, next to her giving a thumbs up. That’s a kind of crazy I wouldn’t want to mess with.

    LSU is 13-4-1 on the road, against the spread, vs. Alabama. Does that mean anything? I’m not sure but it sounds good.

    Why LSU might win –

    Jeremy Hill – One of the two running backs to gain more than 100 yards against Alabama last season. I think it’s safe to say he’s still pissed about their loss despite his yards and he’s going to be back in the game with a vengeance. I love when running backs have chips on their shoulders – seems to speed them up, not slow them down.

    Alabama is undefeated and the “most likely to stay that way.” All that says to me is they’ve got a big ‘ole target on their backs that the Tigers cannot wait to ruin. LSU could very well be Alabama’s unlucky #13 and I hope to see the upset happen!

    • Katie O.

      Whoa. It was like the moment I posted these picks they were in the spreadsheet. Very impressive.

      • Bam. Staying on top of it week.

      • acto

        Brown nose!
        Are trying to sway the exalted, Executive Committee?

        • Katie O.

          Hi pot, I’m kettle. You’re the one calling them “exalted”

          • acto

            Hello K, (Kettle), Of course I am, but please remember that the Executive Committee is both prompt, wise, unimpeachable and incorrigible. (Wait, that may be more than “both”.)
            I am about to begin my Icarus like drop to the bottom of the Cheddar Bay standings, it happens every year, I start slowly and then taper off from there.
            Why do you fight me when I try to jump your Brown Nose train? It will take you at least two weeks for you to pass me up.

          • All I know is that frown nosing > brown nosing

        • I may be a member of the Exec Cmte but the Chairman Emeritus rules and KTO has him wrapped around her finger. No surer way to his heart than a well-crafted essay.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Oregon -10 over Stanford (All play)
    Auburn -7 over Tennessee
    LSU +11.5 over Alabama
    Notre Dame -4 over Pittsburgh
    Falcons +6 over Seahawks
    Jags +11.5 over Titans

    No essay

    • which is your essay pick? calling it auburn unless i hear different.

      • Dennis Hemingway

        My bad. Auburn is fine. Thanks.

  • rodofdisaster

    By Twitter….I picked Oregon -10

    Rest to follow….

  • architectartvandelay

    Oregon -10

    • architectartvandelay

      Bama -11.5 vs LSU – Maybe I can have the same affect as I did with Oregon

      A&M -19 vs Miss St. – A&M continues to role & the D continues to improve

      ASU -7 @ Utah – Sun Devils are playing well & are playing for a Pac 12 title shot

      Bengals -1.5 @ Ravens – Teams coming off Thurs night game are playing well with the extra rest.

      Essay Washington -28 vs Colorado

      I came up short last week going against Colorado with UCLA. The mistake I made with that game was UCLA was without their starting RB. That will not be the case in this game as Colorado will be unable to stop heavy doses of Bishop Sankey. In Sankey’s last outing he had 241 yards at the same time Colorado was giving up 405 rushing yards to Arizona.
      This years Washington team has had several explosive offensive outputs so look for them to rack up the yards & points against a pathetic defense. Husky stadium is always a tough place to play and it should be rocking & the only dog that will be barking will be of the Husky variety.

  • HitTheHorns

    Minnesota Vikings +2

    Stanford Cardinal +10

  • TheKardiacKid

    TheKardiacKid:
    AP: Stanford +10 (Win one for Jonathon)

  • bupalos

    Oregon -10. I don’t really want the ducks to win, but I might actually get to watch some of the game if baby Clara behaves, and thinking about sitting there praying the ducks don’t score and score and score and score and score and score just sounds too high stress for a Thurs. night. So duck me up,

    And the weather is going to bait me into this MAC thing that I know nothing about. Mist and high winds just don’t go with 20 point MACtion spreads, so CMU it is.

    Neither of these feel like essay material to me.

  • Concierge

    Stanford +10 tonight. And Baylor -14

  • Peter Markos

    Oregon

  • Matt Borcas

    mattborcas

    Stanford +10 over Oregon

    • Matt Borcas

      Auburn -7 over Tenn.
      Notre Dame -4 over Pitt.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine

    Previous: CMU essay (win), BGSU (win)

    Oregon -10 / Stanford – I think the difference tonight is the Ducks’ D – only allowing 16.9 ppg, which is incredible considering their prolific offense gives the opposition plenty of possessions. The public is only 57% on the Ducks (at -10 I thought it would be much more), which makes me feel a little more comfortable siding with the favorite.

    Oklahoma +15 / Baylor – Baylor is 7-0, and the biggest challange they’ve faced is…. Kansas State (4-4), who covered 17 a few weeks back. Baylor is a noob to the big stage. Oklahoma is used to big spots and primetime games, so they’re not going to be afraid of the manufactured “blackout” in Waco tonight. The Sooners are getting more than 2 TDs. Considering some of the lines for this game opened at less than 10 (even as low as 7.5!), 15 seems like a good value to me.

    • Petefranklin

      Oklahoma was a 6 point favorite on the Golden Nugget opening lines this summer. 21 point difference.

      • thatsfine

        I was only referring to where the lines started this week. Obviously, if you had the foresight to grab Baylor +6 in June you’re feeling pretty good about your chances… probably ordering extra shrimp tonight.

  • oxr

    I bleed green and yellow, so this is liable to be another nailbiter. Still, there’s time for the great Alejandro Maldonado to surpass his NCAA record for Most Potential Championship Seasons Derailed, so there’s that. Ultimately, I have to say…

    … goddammit…

    … All-Play Stanford +10 over Oregon. Never have I rooted this hard against my own pick. Go Ducks.

    • lookit: a clue that went unheeded.

      • oxr

        Or just garden-variety pessimism, I’m afraid, but thank you.

  • squeekycleen

    Two regulars for tonight:
    Minnesota Vikings
    Baylor Bears

    All play:
    Oregon Ducks

    • squeekycleen

      All play: Kansas St.: Texas Tech is one of those teams that the public loves every single year. They throw a lot. The public loves teams that throw. Unfortunately, Texas Tech just isnt that good. They are soft on D, and I’m still not sold on their quarterback options. On the flip side, Kansas St. has at least looked mildly competent after they opened the year dropping the opener to NDSt. That game is certainly seared into the memories of most bettors and for better or worse will probably define their season. So while this number probably looks shockingly low for the Red Raiders at home, it’s there for a reason. Bill Snyder for me.

      Others:
      Wyoming Cowboys
      Arizona Cardinals

  • mrickman

    in on oregon -10

    rest of picks will come later i guess

  • When I warned everyone five weeks ago that there was limited time left to get on the Florida State bandwagon, you could have gotten 12-1 odds on FSU to win the BCS like I did.

    “FSU at 12-1 looks like the best odds on the board to me,” the Prohibited Favorite said.

    Now FSU is only a 2-1 shot and I really need either Alabama or Oregon to lose one game between now and January so the smart thing for me to do here would be to hedge. But that is no damn fun. I suppose 10 points is a hell of a lot in a road game that Oregon will be thrilled to just get a win in but I mostly just want to root. Fuck a Duck. Stanford +10 for one point.

    And since the teevee’s gonna be on anyway, there’s no point resisting a play against the Washington Cornball Brothers to embarrass themselves again in a nationally televised matchup so one point on the Vikings +2.5 as well, pls. Thanks.

    Will be back late-ish Saturday and/or early Sunday with four more including an essay.

    • Petefranklin

      12-1 was an awesome play! There are a few wiseguys in Vegas who have FSU as the top team in their power ratings, including the guy who opens the CFB lines on Sunday afternoon in Vegas, John Avello.

      • The only other team that could be close is Bama and I think the advantage FSU’s offense has over Bama’s is clearly bigger than the advantage, if any (doubtful that there even is one), that Bama’s D might have over FSU’s. Of course if Bama slips, gotta think FSU is a touchdown+ favorite over anyone else.

  • chuckycrater

    Tonight’s pick: Oregon -10

    For a team built on ball control, Stanford doesn’t run the ball very well. Also Oregon is a better passing team than last year and Stanford has some key defensive injuries. Take the points.

  • munasrevenge

    Stanford +10 vs Oregon

    I don’t love it, (Stanford is pretty ridiculously overranked right now) but Oregon always manages to lose a game in there and Stanford has the talent and drive to really hold them down. Essay and other picks to come tomorrow/Saturday.

  • I going with Oregon and I’ve got two bullets moving me this way that I haven’t seen discussed:

    1. Mariota is better; throws deeper.
    Trevor Matich got into this at halftime of the CMU/Ball game. He had some data showing the Oregon throws much more 20+ yards-in-air passes than they did last year. This is an added wrinkle Stanford didn’t need to worry about last year which could be a problem. Also Mariota is just better than last year, perhaps the QB in the country.

    2. What about Oregon’s defense?
    Our friends at FishDuck have a whole set of tutorials on Nick Aliotti’s Aggressive Attacking Hybrid 3-4 Defense. Everyone knows the Ducks are second in scoring offense; not everyone know they’re eighth in scoring defense. Considering how often they’re kicking off, that’s a lot of chances for teams to put up points. Oregon’s runs a defense that is a lot like Ray Horton’s. Stanford’s offense isn’t their strong suit.

    Maybe Oregon doesn’t pin 50 on Stanford, but I’m not sure Stanford breaks 20 against that defense either.

    [not an essay.]

    • zarathustra

      SOLD! Although I think the duck defense’s number are super-inflated due to a tremendously easy schedule, I think they are good enough to stop a Stanford offense that is inferior to last year. Not at all interested in mariotta for the browns, but you made an excellent point about the downfield passing.
      Switching my pick to
      Oregon -10 over Stanford

      • Petefranklin

        I’ll buy that too, so instead of giving Stanford the win I’ll give it to the Ducks, by seven.

      • [sorry bro.]

  • Jeff Rich

    STANFORD (+10) vs Oregon
    This Stanford team has shown its moments of vulnerability, but I chalk the disaster at Rice-Eccles and the near-disaster at Michie as teachable moments. And, those kids who play for the Cardinal are there to learn. I have mentioned that I see this one as a 35-21 win for the Ducks, but I’ve also said that Stanford will pull off the upset straight-up. However my Gameday prediction is right in the middle, Oregon 28 Stanford 21

    This is not my essay.

    • Jeff Rich

      Got cut-off, Oregon 28 Stanford 21 (not my essay)

    • Jeff Rich

      BALL STATE (-20.5) vs Central Michigan

      • you don’t want this. you very much don’t want this.

        • Jeff Rich

          Do I get another pick?

          • Absolutely, cant accept a pick after kickoff.
            But looks like youve got Colts*** Eagles Saints today so youre set.

    • Jeff Rich

      Ucla (-1) at ARIZONA
      Fresno State (-9) at WYOMING

    • Jeff Rich

      Eagles (+1.5) at PACKERS
      COLTS (-9) vs Rams
      Can I just write the words Kellen Clemens 50x to meet the 100-word requirement? The Colts just find ways to win, against Denver and Houston we saw that. This won’t be one of those weeks that require them to do so. Of course, the Rams have some nice pieces in place, but I’m pretty sour on Jeff Fisher’s ability to get this team over the hump. n the other hand, chuck Pagano is proving himself to be more than just an inspirational story, but he has a real team to work with, evidenced by the fact that Arians doesn’t have the Cardinals on the path to the Super Bowl. I think this could get ugly; at least double-digit ugly anyway.
      SAINTS (-6.5) vs Cowboys

  • zarathustra

    Stanford +10 over Oregon (all-play)

  • p_forever

    i’ll take those rubber duckies i mean those oregon ducks tonight please (the rest of my slate tbd).

    oregon -10 stanford

  • Petefranklin

    Stanford and Oklahoma both for a Cheddar point please.

    • Petefranklin

      They don’t want you to play Oregon because they know they will receive a boatload of public money on the Ducks. If this game was played last week after all the favorites had covered in the NFL the previous week leaving the public flush with money, the line would have closed 13. BTW 10 is a lousy number, as most books were 10.5 yesterday AM.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Stanford +10 for the All-Play tonight.

  • FTCMikeD

    Double Cheddar Thursday Night Action:
    @Baylor -15 over Okla (looking to keep pace with the undefeated means blowout)
    AP: Oregon -10 over @Stan (as a Buckeye fan I want Stanford to win, but last time I went with my heart I picked Clemson over FSU… so yeah, Ducks cover)

  • jdoepke

    Stanford + 10 for me tonight for the All Play. Rest will come later

    • jdoepke

      Well this is different, I’m heading into the weekend 2-0 with a chance to make some noise. Lots on the board that I like so here we go.

      Baylor -15 win
      Stanford +10 (all play) win
      Wyoming +9
      Tennessee +7
      Falcons +6

      Kansas St +3 (essay)
      This is the worst line on the board this week. Texas Tech ranked #25 albeit off 2 losses hosts 4-4 Kansas St and they are laying 3? Makes no sense and with 75% of the public on the Red Raiders, I will gladly go the other way and back the best coach in college football. Snyder is approaching 100 years old and Kingsbury is almost old enough to drink at a Lubbock watering hole. Yup, Kansas St in the “upset” 31-27.

      Very close to picking UK +14 and Pittsburgh +4 (at 4.5 probably would have, passing at 4).

  • Its Only Money

    Washington -2 @ Minnesota
    Louisville -27.5 @ Connecticut
    Iowa -14.5 @ Purdue
    @ Baltimore +1.5 Cincinnati

    All Play @ Stanford +10 Oregon

    Essay
    @ Tampa Bay +2.5 Miami
    This is going to be the week the Buccaneers get their first win. The players have finally put aside their dislike of Schaino and have decided to play for themselves. Last week the went out to Seattle and almost shocked a team that was overlooking them. This week they are at home against a team that is coming off a nice win against the Bengals but have been distracted by the whole Martin/Incognito situation. The Phins haven’t been able to focus on football enough this week. They are going to be coming into the game thinking they are playing a winless team and will be able to just stroll out there and win. This is not going to be the case.

  • GRRustlers

    Week 11 Picks

    Buffalo – Win

    AP – Stanford (+10) over Oregon – When in doubt take the home team with the much better coach getting double figures who may be the only ones to have cracked the Oregon code.

    Ravens (+1.5) over Bengals – Mainly because I don’t believe in Dalton on the road and a team that will choke players in piles will do anything at home to keep their season alive.

    Saints (-6.5) over Cowboys – Because Brees and Payton and Superdome.

    Fresno State (-9) over Wyoming – 2014 Browns backup QB Carr shines at the highest stadium in D1.

    Essay Pick

    Monday Night Football gets to go to Tampa.

    If you are not excited for some of the things that may come out of the mouth of Gruden on Monday I just can’t help you. I know it puts me in the minority liking the guy but my friend won a ring there and some of the stories that I have heard about that guy…wow.

    I don’t know if I fully grasp the line movement on this game. Tampa is still awful and still employs Schiano. Really wish I was near a computer on Sunday because when they took a 21-0 lead on Seattle everyone should have been emptying their bank accounts on a live line for Seattle.

    I have to admit as far as the Dolphins go I am now really confused about what happened in that locker room. The comments from Hartline and Tannehill today have me scratching my head. Incognito is still an incredible bag of douche (his track record speaks for itself) and I don’t know what to think of Martin other than that if this guy checked into a hospital he clearly needs help and I hope he gets it.

    This brings us to the football side of all of this. Who gives a shit if the Dolphins are missing 2 starters on the line? The line was the weakest link of the Dolphins this year. The QB is fine. The Defense is still solid and if the image of Wake chasing down that statue Glennon does not make you chuckle a little bit…

    Also…bonus fun for Monday night. The Dolphins offensive line has probably had a rough week. If they line up in victory formation and Schiano pulls that bush league shit at the end of the game we may have an NFL brawl to end all brawls.

    Miami (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

    Unrelated Cheddar Bay Bonus Picks

    Yes. I am a CFL junkie and it’s playoff time.

    Montreal (+3) over Hamilton – No Dan Hawkins anymore + Troy Smith = Win

    Saskatchewan (-4.5) over BC – Love Durant.

    • ” if the image of Wake chasing down that statue Glennon does not make you chuckle a little bit…”

      Grape minds.

    • trashycamaro

      “Who gives a shit if the Dolphins are missing 2 starters on the line? The line was the weakest link of the Dolphins this year. ” Exactly. My essay will likely have a similar sentence in it.

    • chuckycrater

      Extremely excited to watch Gruden try not to laugh out loud at this train wreck. You know, since it was only the Glazers deciding 9-7 wasn’t doing it for them anymore that such a disaster could even happen.

  • You know I’m backing Oregon and future Cleveland Browns starting quarterback Marcus Mariota

    • I mean he sort of looked like a Cleveland Browns starting quarterback tonight. Maybe you’re onto something.

      • Seriously. The first time we’ve really seen Mariota not look comfortable. If may just be Stanford is Oregon’s kryptonite, but if that is how Mariota responds to pressure, may be time to reassess.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine

    Earlier: BGSU (win)

    Central Michigan +20.5 / Ball St. (essay) Gotta love the fact that a Wednesday
    night MAC game is getting four essays (as of now). I’m rolling with the Chippewas not just because the public is all over the Cardinals and somebody has to
    back CMU, but because CMU had 18 days to rest, get healthier, and to get
    ready for primetime. Plus they’ve won 2 straight on the road including a
    surprise over Ohio U., and even though they didn’t cover at home vs.
    NIU in their most recent outing (damn you Jordan Lynch, 2nd best QB in
    the MAC with your late game, meaningless touchdown drive) CMU at least
    looked like a competent team vs. a far superior opponent. Yes, Wenning is a
    stud but the weather looks to be poor which favors less scoring and a
    slower pace tonight.

    20.5 is a big number to cover in conference play on a weeknight, and though I made cheddar last night with BGSU covering an even larger number that was against Miami U. and no number is big enough for that team right now. On top of it all, we had two MAC laughers last night and both went according to public
    support. It would be very un-MAC-like to not have at least one fun, competitive game on the MACtion first week slate. I think CMU catches Ball State looking ahead to next week’s matchup vs. NIU and finds a way to cover.

    • Multiple essays on the same 20+ point MAC underdog is what Cheddar Bay is all about.

  • acto

    AP Ore -10 over Stanford

    Iowa -14.5 over “a shot and a beer”

    Neb +7 over Mich

    North Texas -25 over UTEP

    UCF -10.5 over Houston

    ****Bungles -1.5 over Ratbirds**** Super Terrific Special Fantastic Happy Essay

    The Ratbirds lost to the Browns last week and it shall take longer than one week to get over the ignominity of such an inglorious defeat. The Grackles have a less talented roster than the Bungles and they are on an obvious downward spiral. The Deadbirds are still a respectable defense against the run, but very vulnerable to the pass. This week they shall be exposed as being weak in both cases. Giovanni Bernard should have a big game and I sincerly hope that somebody will finally pronounce his name correctly, it is not, as often heard G-O-Va-Nee, it is Jo-vanni. Just like Gianni is not G-ahn-ni, it is pronounced exactly like Johnny.

    A J Green should also have a very big day, the only hope to stop him would be to have Ed Reed line up on his side and double him over the top while being a supreme ball hawk. For some reason I doubt they will be able to get any extra help from Ed Reed.

    The Bungles lost last week on my favorite overtime scenario ever, so they shall be most assuredly encouraged to atone for that rather entertaining loss.

  • Essay Wednesday counterpoint: Ball St. -20.5 v CMU.

    This looks like a pretty solid mismatch. Just looking at some misc. rankings and you have the Chips among the national worsts in Total Offense, Rush Offense, Scoring Offense, Rush Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense, Turnover Margin, 3rd Down Conversions, First Downs… just bad. The only category where they excel is Fewest Penalties which isn’t necessarily a great thing to be great at. Meanwhile Ball State is a leader in Passing Offense, Scoring Offense, Pass Efficiency Defense, Turnover Margin, Red Zone Defense, First Downs, and they’re even better than CMU in penalties. We always take these rankings with grains of salt because the next question is ‘whom did you play’.. but this is still enough data to figure that CMU can’t run and leans pass which is what Ball State is good at defensing and Ball State likes to pass where CMU is 102nd in Pass Defense.

    Another item I like to check is the Hustle Belt top 68 MAC players list. Ball has eight on the list: Snead-10, Wenning-13, Edwards-19, Newsome-20, Hansel-30, Smith-31, Fakes-34, Ollie-43 and they’re all playing tonight. CMU has five and two of them are done for the year. Zurlon Tipton was their best playmaker; Jake Olson was their all-MAC left tackle. That leaves two linebackers and Titus Davis who’s a good WR without a good QB. This looks like significant talent disparity.

    CMU’s wins have been against two FCS teams (UNH, MiamiO) and Solich. Ball has beaten UVA and Toledo; their only loss is to a very good UNT squad up north of Dallas.

    This all maps to a solid Cheddar play but what’s got me making it my essay is the opportunity tonight brings for Ball State’s QB. I was aware of Keith Wenning before this season but he really got on my radar in the blustery game at Akron (as I noted last week). It’s always nice when Ohio high school kids go on to good college careers but I think Wenning will go farther; I think he plays on Sundays. So that’s good news. The bad news is that he’s buried in Muncie and relatively few people know him. That changes tonight. I can’t remember the last time Ball State had a national stage to itself but they have it now. It’s a perfect chance to showcase Wenning. I should think Pete Lembo cuts Wenning loose in a bid to help his draft stock (and WR Willie Snead’s as well).

    Weather looks gross. Chilly and rainy and not too windy. This won’t phase Wenning; this may phase CMU’s freshman QB.

    Tuesday showed us what it looks like when the MAC elites meet the MAC mehs… 30-40 point differentials.

    Now then. I’ve seen Nick’s essay and I’m not happy about going against it. But I look at it more as though I’m going with CapGG.

    • I’m not liking the weather reports here; hard for a passing team to lay 3 TDs in a two club wind. Not feeling it; punting this essay; scratch this pick. (This is probably a good omen for you Gavin.)

  • CLEVTA

    Im early on these but out of town work duties will keep me busy next few days:
    1) OU- loser

    2) Stanford +10 (All play): Id lean Oregon but am rooting for Stanford as an OSU alum so might as well align myself

    3) K ST +3 (Essay): Tech is the largest public play outside of Mizzou this week on covers. And I really prefer going against the public with these short lines. Means much closer talent levels with a margin of safety for a blowout. Tech just got blown out, have lost two straight and are plummeting back to reality. They are just not that good and their starting QB Baker Mayfield is questionable. On net yds/play and 1st down/play metrics K St actually ranks much higher than Tech. K St’s 10 point loss to Baylor (was much closer than the score & led in the 4th) actually looks really really impressive at this point considering what Baylor is doing to the rest of its opponents. In terms of common opponents, K St went into Ok St and was leading much of the way before falling late by 4 while Tech just got destroyed at home to the Pokes. In reality who has Tech even beaten? Their best W looks to be a vastly overrated TCU team. Tech’s weakness on defense is stopping the run, K St’s strength, and allowed 281 rush yds (5.1 ypc) to a poor running team in Ok St and 277 (5.5 ypc) to Oklahoma. This line smells which is why I love it.

    4) Arizona (college) +1. Another smelly line. Maybe UCLA just isn’t that good against weak competition.

    5) Pitt +4. Back to the well after GA Tech stole a cheddar point from me last week. This is a stanky play. Big public support on ND and line has dropped a point. Domers stink.

    6) Saving for the inevitable weekly bad action play on Sunday

  • Nick

    Essay Wednesday: Central Michigan +20.5 vs Ball State

    The Chippawas haven’t played a game in 17 days. If I were them, I’d be really looking forward to playing some football. Granted, it’s in Muncie Indiana, but it’s a prime time game against a red hot Ball State team. Keith Wenning has been great, and after the Akron/Ball State game (where I thought Akron played them hard, and Ball still killed them) I declared to myself I would ride Ball State the rest of the year.

    Yet after watching two MAC blowouts last night I started thinking…Ball is 7-2 against the spread this year so I already missed the boat on winning w/ them…Ball plays NIU next week so this feels like a trap game…Covers has the Cardinals at 71% fav, lines haven’t moved to justify it, but these feels like a skank play…CMU did lose their starting QB and RB in the first game of the year so with that in mind 3-5 isn’t awful…are we really going to see 3 MAC blowouts in a row?

    Furthermore, the local papers seem positive. Here’s a nice story by Aaron McMann at Central Michigan Life about Andrew Flory coming into his own, as their #2 wide receiver. Titus Davis is a legit #1 so they have true talent outside.

    http://www.cm-life.com/2013/11/04/after-early-season-lull-receiver-andrew-flory-stepping-into-his-desired-role-playmaker/

    My hope is Central Michigan will slug it out with the run game, and take up as much clock as possible to keep Wenning off the field. As long as they can avoid turnovers, I think they keep this game close so I’m taking the points along with a dose of MACtion tonight.

    • Nick

      I feel a little dirty after CMU’s miraculous backdoor cover.

      Hungry for more weekday action, please put me on:
      AP: Oregon
      Oklahoma
      Redskins

    • Nick

      Please give me the Dolphins tonight for my last play to end a strange week. thanks

  • I’m going Oregon for the all play.

    • I am really hating this game. Actually, hate the player not the game right? My picks suck.

      Lost on Oregon, lost on Cincy. Won on New Orleans.

      Essay:

      Dolphins -2.5 over Tampa.

      Why? Well, I’m hoping for a big time ‘us against the world’ game from the Dolphins. That and the fact that Tampa hasn’t won a game yet. They have come pretty close though haven’t they? Everything in my being says Tampa wins this game tonight, which is as much a reason as any to bet against it. My essay picks have been sensationally bad this season. Aside from riding the Denver Mannings’ hot streak I have been horrible.

      Tonight will probably be no different.

  • For CapGG:

    More #cheddarbay: Essay Ball St -20.5 (punt), all-play Stanford (home dogs mid week), FSU -34.5 for 1. NFL pick pending.

  • CLEVTA

    I’ll be posting the stanky picks on Friday or Sat morning. The lines moves have been more extreme closer to kickoff as of late so should make for better basis in terms of opposite line movements.

  • acto

    jk,
    Please let me have Ore -10 for AP

  • CleveLandThatILove

    One pointers.
    Ball State -20.5 CMU
    Troy +13.5 ULL
    (AP) Oregon

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Oregon -10 over Stanford, please and thank you.

  • cwonder23

    All Play: Oregon -10

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    All Play: Stanford -10

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      Sorry meant Stanford +10

  • ChuckKoz

    AP: Oregon -10.5 (at Stanford)

    More to follow

  • clayII

    Stanford for all play.

  • ive got via email:
    CAPGG: BGSU and UB;
    Concierge: MiamiO and OU.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine:disqus

    BGSU – whatever / Miami U. for one cheddar point

  • I’m in for BGSU tonite.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    One cheddar point on THE Ohio University tonight, please

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      Baylor – 15 vs. Oklahoma

      ESSAY bye week

      Oregon -10

      • FlyHighCharlieFrye

        Army +6.5
        Bengals -1.5
        Wisconsin -7.5