#CheddarBay Week 11: Oregon at Stanford on THURSDAY. Look alive.
- All-play line is: Oregon -10 at Stanford.
- Weekly point spreads are linked here.
Posting early this week due to the Thursday night all play game, Oregon at Stanford. We’ll use the usual Wednesday morning lines; I’ll update this post and the standings with the lines link tomorrow morning and I’ll tweet it as well. (FYI, the line is Oregon -10.5 today.)
A reminder there is $191 to be awarded to the top player(s) this week. This runs through the end of the regular season (30% of the kitty is dedicated to this). For example, last week Berger would have collected the whole pot for his Lobsterfest. This is a good program to keep everyone engaged and especially so this year since Acto and Squeeky have kicked it into beast mode. Both are 9-1 on their essaypicks, over 60% on the picks overall…; that’s good scrimshaw.
“Why is the line so low?” you may ask. The Ducks average score is 56-17. Ducks beat common opponents Washington and UCLA much more soundly than Stanford. Stanford lost to Utah and its vaunted rush defense allowed 176 yards in that game and no 90 yard breakaways either. Hell, Army had the ball in Stanford territory driving for a game-tying score late in the third quarter1; this really happened, Pate and I were there!
Has Vegas made an error? Ho-ho-ho… no… no Vegas doesn’t make mistakes friend. But they sure do seem to want you to play Oregon and that’s alarming. What’s up with that?
Welp, here’s my guess on the thinking and do with it what you want. After Stanford’s win at Autzen last year, they gained a reputation as the Zone Read stopper defense. You can read about slow-playing the zone read option here; here’s a report mentioning that NFL teams have visited Stanford to learn about how to defend ZR, and finally Greg Bedard did a piece on Derek Mason, Stanford’s D Coordinator, here. The lore holds that Stanford is built to beat Oregon’s offense. Oh and grass, they’re playing on grass not Oregon’s usual field turf.
Buy it or not, your call.
Skanky Fish with @ClevTA.
21-17-2 ATS YTD;
1-4 last week: Memphis (lose), ColoSt (lose), Tenn (lose), Bills (lose), Browns (win).
We’re seeing some Barnwelling2 going on with the Skanky. But that Bills game… a pick six and a fumble six? Seriously?? Woof. Very eager to see what ClevTA’s crystal ball conjures up this week. Feels like a strong bounce back week.
CFB: Pitt, Wyoming, K St
Alrighty, let’s kill it this week. Nothing but good scrimshaw.
TUESDAY NIGHT MACTION LINES:
BGSU -23.5 at MIAMIO;
OHIO +3.5 at UBUFFALO.
And check out “How #MACtion became a thing” from friend of Cheddar, Zac Jackson. Must read for MAC junkies.
- before fumbling and then Stanford immediately scoring a TD and salting the game away. [back]
- “regressing to mean” [back]