#CheddarBay Week 10: Ravens -2.5 at Browns.

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Ravens-Browns will be different without Cribbs and Ellerbe but still must-watch.  (Click for video.)

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We’re coming back to Cleveland for this week’s all-play and it’s a worthy game.  The Browns actually, somehow, are playoff contenders if they beat Baltimore and Baltimore is beat-able.  They’re coming off a bye and have yet to score an impressive win.  Browns meanwhile start a QB better than Brandon Weeden (Are we not all amazed at how bad was Brandon Weeden now that you see these other backups run this offense?  Whoa.) and one supposes Davone Bess will not be allowed on the field… this may be prove a winning formula.  Regardless of win-lose, will be a great game.  We should have a half dozen or more Cheddars at the game too.

zfoot30cut

Current Wagon Wheel line is Kent +1 at Akron.

The alternates on my short list were Miami/FSU, UM/MSU, and The Cocktail Party.  The Wagon Wheel was not on the short list however, w.r.t. #MACtion, I think all who watched BGSU/Toledo can vouch that that was maybe the best game of the weekend.

Sidebar:  Next week (Week 11) has quite a few big games notably:  Oklahoma at Baylor; Oregon at Stanford; LSU at Bama.  The first two are on Thursday night and while we hate to have a Thursday all-play… Oregon/Stanford is a biggie.  Anyway, head’s up on that possibility.

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Weekly pay-outs start next week.

Just a reminder for any discouraged Cheddars:  next week commences our weekly payout for the top picker(s).  My math says that’s $191 each week.  Will it be your luck finally to score a Lobsterfest only to have two others hit on that same week?  Oh of course it will be.

I’ll confirm the payouts in next week’s post.

(Ahem… and that reminds me there are a handful who are in arrears…)  (Moving on..)

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Skanky Fish with @ClevTA.

@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

20-13-2 ATS YTD;
2-3 last week SCAR (win), Akron (lose), Kent (lose), Hawaii (lose), Cards (win)

Really really good work on the SCAR and Cards wins and many Cheddars paid a price for not heeding the suggestions.  The other three.. meh.  The Ball State game was a revelation:  who knew Keith Wenning could spin it in the Northeast Ohio wind like that?  (More on that below.)  Take it away TA:

Quick adjustment to the weekly skanky picks:  NO MORE MAC GAMES!  I’m 0-3 with the MAC with these picks and every week the MAC gives us the weirdest, more unusual line movements on a weekly basis which also lends to some of the largest public divide splits you will see.  Let’s not act like the MAC hasn’t produced shady activities in the past (ahem the ghost of Scooter McDougle rings a bell). Take out MAC games and the skanky picks have gone 20-10-2.  And to be honest I was close to not even posting these anymore since Arizona/ATL was on the list and what happens but 15 cheddarers decided to ignore and take ATL out of 20 total picks in that game, including a bunch of ATL essays!  Oh well hopefully some people used the info to their advantage and made (or saved) some cheddar.

NCAA:
– Memphis +2.5 v CIN (Opened CIN -3.5, now 2.5. 78% of public on CIN) PK: Memphis
– CSU +6.5 v Boise (Opened Boise -7.5, now -6. 63% of public on Boise) PK: CSU
– Tenn +11 v Mizzou (Opened Mizzou -13, now -11. 67% on Mizzou) PK: Tenn

NFL:
– Buff +3 v KC (Opened KC -3.5, now -3. 69% of public on KC) PK: Buff
– Browns +2.5 v Balt (Opened Balt -3, now 2.5. 68% on Balt) PK: CLE (!!!)

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Ungrateful Josh Cribbs.

The Browns/Ravens game won’t be the same without prickish ingrate Josh Cribbs.  {Browns fans.  SMH.}  I’ve been mulling whether to explore who is truly ungrateful –Cribbs or Browns fans– in a post but thanks to Cheddar Jeff Rich much of the legwork has been done with his comprehensive post on the subject.  He covers some of the ground I would have and though he stops short of addressing this question — for what and to whom should Cribbs be grateful and for how long? — he settles on a final point I agree with:  Here’s the thing; I don’t care.  

I’ll second that.  He was, after all, just a special teams player albeit a great one.  And while I think he was miscast on offense (He was born to play strong safety, IMO.) and that’s shame, Cribbs fulfilled his contract with the Browns and with me and in full.  He doesn’t owe me anything even though he still cares what I think.  If he wants to state the obvious that Browns teams in the time he spent here quit, it’s hard to see how this can be viewed as a ‘betrayal.’  Seems a simple statement of fact to me.  How and why any Browns fans would be bothered here… well it boggles my mind.

NCAA Football: Army at Ball State

Coldwater is over by Lima and McSober’s is the place to go.

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Coldwater’s own Keith Wenning.1

I mean to do a post looking at college quarterbacks not named Bridgewater, Mariota, Manziel, or Boyd because I suspect the best QB in next year’s draft will be found in the second/third/fourth round.  Until then, get Keith Wenning on your radar.  I watched the Ball State at Akron game gents and I promise he was throwing ten yard outs outside the numbers, back shoulder, like a clothesline into a 20 mph wind in 40 degree temps.  This was not an ‘Akron just sucks’ win for Ball State; Wenning was making NFL level throws and 5 TD passes is 5 TD passes.  (Also his WR Snead is very good.)

And then when you get scouting reports like this on Wenning you have to take notice:

(Now THAT, my friends, is a twitter AVI.)

I’ve seen Wenning projected as 6th/7th rounder… expect him to go higher.  Try to catch a Ball State game and see if I’m way off base here.

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Spreadsheet entry/scoring errors.

I’ve noticed that I’ve made more mistakes this year than in years past and I can’t account for it since the user count is only a little bigger.  But mistakes and oversights there have been so be sure to check the spreadsheet and alert me to the problem (and ideally, if you can give me the link of your submittal that’s a time saver on the internal audit piece).  And not that it really matters but when said alerts are dispatched with discretion (e.g., email, direct message) it is appreciated.  😉  Speaking of auditing…

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Using twitter/email for submittals should be your Plan B.

First off, submitting picks this way is at odds with the spirit of the contest.  Lookit:  Petefranklin is feeding his family with your picks!!  (Never mind that he’s fading some of you.)  The point is that ideally we all benefit not just from the essays but from all the bits of data.  The second issue is that I’m a single point of failure.  Having a one-man non-automated system wouldn’t be how you’d draw it up and a long term automated solution should be in place next year.  Understood that the new comment system presented some problems last week but I want to remind all not to get into habit of bypassing the comment thread.

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  • CLEVTA

    15-0 in favor of Raiders over Philly? Seriously

    • that bad-action thing was part of the calculus in my dropping NIU yesterday.. 13-0 on the Huskies.
      sometimes the squares get it right, no?

      • CLEVTA

        Apples-Oranges. A huge talent disparity in the MAC is totally diff from a short NFL line. Involving. The. Raiders

    • 15-1. Boom.

      • CLEVTA

        That’s why u r The Prohibitive Favorite. My bank account is on your side as well

    • “15-0 in favor of Raiders over Philly? Seriously” is what Cheddar Bay is all about.

  • Ok so it’s Tuel time and the line is 5.5 irl. Even though the Bills will surely win today, sticking with them +3 as a Cheddar Essay is way too fancy under the circumstances even for the Prohibited Favorite. Scratch that essay and I’ll be back with one for the late game.

    • Matt Borcas

      Prohibited Favorite >>>>>>>> Prohibitive Favorite.

    • Forget the late game. I’ll use my essay to stand against the Raiders tide. Wiseguys will tell you to beware the public underdog and so far Cheddar Bay is on Oakland by a 15-0 margin. The Eagles have too much talent for their offense to stay completely stalled for three consecutive weeks, especially against a team like the Raiders. Foles back taking the snaps gives them the best QB situation they’ve had in three weeks, and no doubt Foles will be looking to erase an atrocious performance against the Cowboys his last time out when his leg (can’t remember if it was a hip, knee, or ankle or whatever) was obviously bothering him badly. If he’d have made half of the throws he missed to wide open receivers in that game, Philly might have come away with a win there (one that he missed to Celek was especially memorable). The “Chip Kelly must be some kind of idiot” meme is way overbought this week. Eagles -3 for the win in Oakland.

  • For DQuatts–

    Wow, FSU just doesn’t stop scoring! Lol.
    Wrapping up the week…
    Raiders +3
    Browns +2.5
    Steelers +6.5. $$
    Texans +2.5

    Here’s the thing…with a big win this weekend against a semi-banged up Patriots club, the Steelers are right back in the hunt to win the AFC North. They, unlike NE, are getting healthy and are starting to groove, both on D and on O. I think that the ability for Pittsburgh to control the clock against NE and prevent the Brady freight train from getting on the field….at least a little prevention hopefully. I see this one being tight. Go Curtain!

    DQuatts

  • oxr

    UCLA (L) – alas. Still tantalizingly close to the red line…

    All-Play Browns! +2.5 over Ravens – Jason Campbell has the power to make me (most of us, in fact) look like an idiot here.

    *** Chiefs -3 over Bills – as does Jeff Tuel.

    Titans -3 over Rams – as does Kellen “Kattle Country” Clemens

    Colts -2.5 over Texans – as does Case Keenum

    Raiders +3 over Eagles – as does every QB involved in this game…

    Got to nominate one of these dodgy quarterback situations as my essay, and I’ve got a lot of field-goal road favorites here. Picking against Keenum has already burned me once. I am not thrilled about the Chiefs offense – who is? – and would probably be steering clear of this game if Thad Lewis were starting, but the Jeff Tuel experience has lived up to expectations so far and I like the Chiefs’ defensive chances. The Bills defense is also legitimate, but they’ve got the biggest net minus at the most important offensive position on this list, and they’re going to have to throw it today – running Spiller/Jackson into a wall may not work so well against Poe & co. Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe appear to be playing. The Chiefs can’t afford to drop games like this and still hold on to the AFC West. So, with a last wistful look at the Titans-Rams game, I am going with the Chiefs yet again for three Cheddar points.

    • oxr

      I’ve made a terrible mistake. #tueltime

      • oxr

        Whew, two defensive TDs. That could’ve gone a lot worse.

  • bupalos

    Buffalo and 5 over the chiefs
    Atlanta and 8 over the panthers.
    Pats giving 6 to the steelers

  • CLEVTA

    Good amount of bad action alert based on today’s selections

  • Petefranklin

    Cheddar #5 Raiders +3, I hate the play but love the value. 4 free points are real nice in the NFL, and if the Raiders are good enough for KTO, count me in!
    # 6 Dreaded all play: Ravens -2.5 maybe Flacco earns his cheese(cheddar of course) this week. Last year after the bye week is when he,and the team, got his shit together.

  • bobby_slick

    Essay: Ravens -2.5

    Just heard that the last time the Browns beat the Ravens, DA was the qb, Billick was the head coach, and Ray Rice was a junior at Rutgers. Last time I checked the Ravens still have Flacco at the helm and Harbaugh coaching which is a better coach/qb combo than the Browns have ever had. I just don’t see Jason Campbell leading a Browns team against a division rival with 48 year old Willis McGahee behind him, and a slot receiver who can’t catch anything. I see this game a sloppy close game early on and the Ravens pull away in the second half, much to the dismay of the hometown crowd. These are games that the Browns haven’t learned to win yet, and Baltimore expects to win…I like what Chud is doing but without a signal caller, the Browns cannot compete and Jason Campbell is not the answer.

  • HitTheHorns

    Atlanta Falcons +7.5

    Baltimore Ravens -2.5

  • CLEinMPLS

    Cowboys -10
    Seahawks -16
    Rams +3
    Ravens (all play)
    Saints -6 (essay)

    Similar to my Pats pick last week, I am rolling with this one because it is under 7. I have a feeling this game will be close for 3 qtrs, but I don’t think the Jets can keep up over 60 minutes. Now that it’s November, the gap will start to widen between the contenders and pretenders. I do like Geno, and I know the Jets have been tough at home, but in the end, I don’t think they have the fire power on their roster to win a game like this yet. As someone else already mentioned, the Saints won’t worry about running the ball. They will come out and sling it around and attempt to turn this into a shootout. Tough to come off an ass kicking like the Jets got last week and have to come home to a gun slinger like Brees.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    All play: Cleveland +2.5

    Essay: pats -6.5 vs the steelers
    I’m convinced the steelers are just a bad football team. They have no running game, they have some key players injured and their defense is an aging dinosaur. The patriots have not been impressive but have won games. Another week of practice with some sola and gronkowski should right the ship with Brady who I expect to tear apart a defense that just does not get pressure on the qb. The pats have a good pass defense but their run def is poor. Good news pats fans Pittsburgh has no running game so they won’t be able to score. Pats are going to have a break out offensive game. 35-10 pats.

  • clayII

    ok, hate to play browns games, but you making me. I will take the Ravens. I want badder than anything for the Browns to win, so this is kind of an insurance play. if the Browns win, they are a serious contender to go to the playoffs. But I have been sad as fuck too many times leaving the fucking factory of sadness so I will take Balt and be happy either way. Happier if the browns win by 1 or 2 though

  • bupalos

    I’ll give the 20 to Nevada and take Fresno.

  • Matt Borcas

    Texas A&M -45.5 over UTEP

    • Matt Borcas

      mattborcas

      A&M -45.5 over UTEP (win)
      Falcons + 7.5 over Panthers
      Chargers (PK) over Redskins
      Browns +2.5 over Ravens
      Pats -6.5 over Steelers

      ESSAY: Chiefs -3 over Bills

      In many respects, last month’s Browns-Bills tilt feels like a lifetime ago. HOYER THE DESTROYER was on top of the world, Travis Benjamin’s ACL was perfectly healthy, and Brandon Weeden played OK in relief duty. Still, the 37-24 final score belies the fact that this was a game until Tashaun Gipson knocked out E.J. Manuel, which paved the way for #TUELTIME.

      8/20, 80 yards, 4.0 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 2.0 QBR

      This was Jeff Tuel’s ghastly stat line in Cleveland; needless to say, he made Weeden look like Tom Brady. Watching the Bills offense sputter and stall with him under center was truly a sight to behold. I’ve never been more confident in the Browns’ ability to close out a game than I was with Tuel quarterbacking the Bills. He’s starting today against the undefeated Chiefs, whose league-best defense will torment him all game, if not completely eradicate him from the face of the earth. Only two safeties will be needed to cover this way-too-low 3-point spread.

  • for DQuatts:

    Getting things started!
    GaTech -10
    Miami +22

  • Oklahoma State +2 over Texas Tech
    Miami +22 over Florida State
    Texas A&M -45.5 over UTEPJets +6 over Saints
    Baltimore Raisins -2.5 over Clowns

    ESSAY: Bills +3 over Chiefs:

    I think KC goes down here looking ahead to Denver. Buffalo’s defense, which will be as healthy this week as its been all season (injuries took them really thin in the secondary early on, including in losses to the Jets and Browns), is as good as any defense the one-dimensional Chiefs offense has faced so far this season. 8-0 aside, Alex Smith is still an extremely limited quarterback. I do have my worries about how the Bills are supposed to score here, but I like Doug Marrone and I think the matchup between Buffalo’s D and KC’s O is the most undervalued factor here. Also, National TV matchup. Also, skanky fish. Note that the line hasn’t moved despite the chance that Thaddeus Lewis misses the start. Tuel time? I’m ready. Roll Damn Buffalo Bills.

  • zarathustra

    I originally intended to pay homage to lou reed in my essay this week with some kooky adaptation of “queen bitch” but I blew my load on Thursday chasing mid-week action. Besides, I’m pretty sure it crossed a line over which a cheddar essay should not go.
    Bengals (L)
    Oregon St (L)
    Canes
    Tulane
    Saints
    Ravens

    • zarathustra

      Regardless the outcome of today’s games I am not leaving this week with many (any?) points, so I will be damned if I am going to spend my afternoon quietly hoping for the browns to lose. Besides, it seems like everybody and their brother is aware of harbaugh’s record off a bye and flaco’s 11-0 record over the browns. There are dumber things in this world than fading that type of media saturation. I will switch my all-play pick to
      Browns +2.5 over Ravens

      • HEY THE BROWNS ARE 0-11 AGAINST FLACCO!!

        dang, i can’t hear that datapoint enough, can you?

  • Kent State +1 @ Akron

    Florida State -22 vs. Miami

    New Orleans -6 @ NY Jets

    Kansas City -3 @ Buffalo

    Seattle -16 vs. Tampa Bay

    All Play & Essay: Baltimore -2.5 @ Cleveland.

    Here’s the reason why: http://www.theclevelandfan.com/cleveland-browns/1-browns-archive/11482-browns-vs-ravens-week-9

  • USFCollin

    All pick: Ravens +2.5. I’m a contrarian to all you people for game theory purposes.

    Tulane -4 over FAU. Taking advantage of a drug induced arbitrage opportunity here.

    MTSU -3.5 over UAB. The better play is the over, but MTSU is going to get stops, and UAB won’t.

    Georgia -2.5 over Florida. Florida continues to suck on ice.

    Seattle -16 over MRSA. Pete Carroll knows how to run up big scores, and Mike Glennon on the road at the 12th Man. Oh, and the road team is in full rebellion and actively looking to get their coach fired as quickly as possible.

    Essay: Fresno State -20.5 over UNR. Reno let UNLV beat them at home for the Fremont Cannon so they have nothing to play for, and Fresno needs to put up big numbers on people for bowl game purposes. Derek Carr is the best quarterback whose brother you know, and Fresno can lay it on thick against anyone. This is a safe number as high as 28 because undefeated Fresno State knows that the only thing people are watching during their games is the scoreboard. They’re going to put up big numbers on patsies the rest of the way in a hope of snagging the BCS bid to the best non-auto qualifier. They’ll need Louisville and UCF to lose again most likely, but since USF is now going to beat UCF on Black Friday and set the world correctly back on its axis, it’s still in play here.

  • oxr

    Got to pick a college game… Ducks aren’t playing… what was the last college game I watched… UCLA! Yeah, the UCLA Fighting Whatever-They-Ares looked pretty impressive and were unlucky not to be up on Oregon at halftime, not to mention unlucky not to cover. And, as explicated by ChuckKoz below, Colorado is bad. So: UCLA -26.5 over Colorado. (The foregoing is not intended to be an essay, btw.)

    Five NFL picks tomorrow.

  • Katie O.

    Oklahoma State +2 vs. Texas Tech
    Colorado State +6 vs. Boise
    Saints -4.5 vs. Jets
    Colts -2.5 vs. Vikings

    All Play: Browns +2.5 vs. Ravens

    Essay: Oakland Raiders +3 vs. Philly Eagles

    Chip Kelly, you’re going to be a long way from home this Sunday. The Black Hole is not only located in merciless Oakland, but Oakland is 3-1 ATS when playing in this region of spacetime. Note that the one loss was with Flynn in the QB spot – this is Pryor country now. The QB situation is much less favorable for the Eagles- Vick is still out, Foles is still concussed but probable, and Barkley…well, so much promise only to end up as a 4th round draft pick and it’s looking like that may have been generous. The Eagles will lay an egg (pun intended) and Pryor will remain undefeated at home.

    Honestly, I had to check the lines a couple times. It didn’t make sense to me that the Eagles were favored in this game.

    Last but not least, Oakland is the home to Kreayshawn – an aspiring rapper from the White Girl Mob. If you haven’t enjoyed how wonderfully strange she is, I hope you check her out. She does have “swag pumping out of [her] ovaries.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WJFjXtHcy4 Raiders FTW.

  • clayII

    Florida (+2.5) / UGA
    Minnesota (+9.5) / Indiana
    Auburn (-8) / Arkansas
    GT (-10) / Pitt
    Okie St (+2) / TT
    Browns essay will follow

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Argh. Fragmented Picks Part Deux. I hope the kindergarten soccer scouting reports on Team Orange pay off.

    Miami (FL) +22 over Florida St.
    Georgia Tech -10 over Pitt
    Wake Forest +3 over Syracuse

    • Jonathan MacDonald

      Well, the good news is, Red Team covered the half goal spread over Orange with a 2-1 victory. A kindergarten soccer quality control coach’s work is never done.

      Miami (FL) +22 over Florida St. (I didn’t think the ‘Canes were legit 3 TD underdogs. Oops.)
      Georgia Tech -10 over Pitt
      Wake Forest +3 over Syracuse (went to the Wake Forest well one too many times)

      Browns +2.5 over Ravens (5 minutes of research suggests the Bye Week advantage is a myth and really depends more on how good teams are to begin with and who’s at home. Although if this pick goes south, my excuse will be, “Well of course the Ravens won / covered, they’re coming off a bye week”).
      Cowboys -10 over Vikings
      Raiders +3 over Eagles (Essay) Hey, a rematch of Super Bowl XV!

      I know the Eagles are in trouble because they lost at home to a sub-par Giants squad. And because they called me for a QB tryout, despite the fact that I have not played one down of organized football in my life. Apparently an 8mm of a playground game in 1984 caught someone’s attention in the scouting department. Chip Kelly’s honeymoon in Philly is over as the local media isn’t quite as charitable as they used to be. They have QB issues, they’re on the road with a 3 time zone change, and the Raiders are capable of putting up points if they can keep it together for part of the game.

  • munasrevenge

    A lot of interesting action this week. A lot of road dogs I like with the points but I hate relying on mediocre road dogs to produce.

    -Ohio State (-31) @ Purdue (yes Purdue will be fired up, but it doesn’t after because they don’t have much talent. Meyer knows he has to lay it on thick against the little sisters of the poor, and isn’t squeamish about doing so.)
    -East Carolina (-22.5) @ FIU (A solid team coming off a bye against one of the worst teams? Yes please.)
    -Utah State (-22.5) vs Hawaii
    -San Jose State (-3.5) @ UNLV (UNLV somehow has 5 wins against a very blah slate. SJSU has a good QB and should be able to put this one away relatively safely.)

    — Browns (+2.5) vs Ravens (Sigh. Can I preemptively change this to the Ravens if the Browns somehow announce Weeden will be starting between now and kickoff?)

    —One of my favorite bets in college football is taking a great team against a terrible team, points be damned. Usually in college football the talent gap is so great that a top tier team can beat a bad team by any score it wants; and polling encourages eye-catching beatdowns. Northern Illinois is a good team that can score a ton of points, while UMass is in the dregs of DI and coming off of a home loss to another dregs neighbor. NIU is undefeated and basically competing with Fresno State for a chance at a BCS autobid; while Fresno has been struggling, NIU has been rolling and will continue in this game. THey know they need to keep scoring 45+ to keep up buzz, and I’m not sure UMass could score 20 against this team even in 8 quarters. I try to play things pretty safe with my essays, and this week I don’t think there’s any safer bet than
    —Northern Illinois (-23) @ UMass

  • Concierge

    browns +2.5 essay
    Northwestern +7.5
    Eastern Michigan +31.5
    Mizzou -11
    Miami +22

    Browns actually looked decent last week. With Jason Campbell at QB the browns look like an NFL offense. I think the Browns Defense will keep this thing close and if Campbell plays mistake free the browns have a great chance to win outright.
    Cleveland has a 3-2 spread record in its five contests this year as an underdog of 1 ½ points or more, including outright wins over the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings. Look for the Browns to squeak out a cover here, ending their losing streak against Baltimore.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Sent it to Kanick via tweet, but getting it on the record here as well.

    NIU -23

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    Pitt +10 at Georgia Tech
    WVU +13.5 at TCU
    UTSA +3 at Tulsa
    Arizona – 16 at Cal
    St. Louis Rams +3 vs. Tenn

    Baltimore Ravens -2.5

    Joe Haden is right: These aren’t the same Ravens. But they’re off a bye week, they’re super pissed off, the Bengals left the door open for them and the fact that they might stink doesn’t really have anything to do with this week. The bar for the Browns is so low that people are genuinely excited that a flea-flicker and pretty competent QB play can pass as something to get excited about. The Browns are in games and have some pieces, but they’re miles from playing in the real NFL. This should be a low-scoring game and nothing should come easy, but I’m going to let Jason Campbell, Davone Bess, Craig Robertson and the rest prove to me they’re ready to beat a Harbaugh team in this spot. I’ll be shocked if it happens.

  • TheKardiacKid

    TheKardiacKid
    AP: Browns (Why do I do this to myself)
    @Fresno St -20.5 vs Nevada
    Golphers +9.5 @Indiana
    Saints -6 @Jets
    Essay:
    Georgia -2.5 @Florida
    The ‘World’s Biggest Cocktail Party’ I wish I was going so I could see a Mark Richt meltdown or a Gator arrested after the game. It’s what college football is all about.
    I think Georgia will win because they should be getting Gurley back and he’s really good. Not Trent Richardson good but still good. Florida’s defense seems to be wearing down. (Sure that’s Urban’s fault though, lets ask Clay Travis)

  • HitTheHorns

    HitTheHorns:

    Arkansas +8 (essay)

    Auburn comes into this game completely overachieving, earning them a #11 BCS ranking (#8 in the AP). Arkansas comes in off a bye after losing five in a row. Four of those losses came against elite SEC competition (Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama), so I don’t see this team being phased by Auburn. Auburn has to finish the season versus Tenn, UGA, and Bama, thus a tough spot to be laying over a TD against an “inferior opponent” on the road with much bigger games ahead of them.

    Iowa State +17

    Indiana -9.5

    Syracuse -3

    More picks tomorrow.

  • dwhalen

    GEORGIA -2.5 @ FLORIDA. As big as the rivalry is, as bad as Georgia’s defense is, Florida’s offense is worse. Aaron Murray by 7+.

    KENT +1 @ AKRON. Unwatchable.

    AUBURN -8 @ ARKANSAS. The fighting beilema’s have been destroyed throughout this 5-game gauntlet. This shall be no different.

    FSU -22 v. MIAMI. By my math, the Canes have to get to about 26 points the cover this one. They’d be only the second team to put up 20+ on the Noles this season. Not happening.

    BROWNS +2.5 v. RAVENS. Last time we played, we lost 14-6 with Weeden under center. Since then, the Ravens have put up just 17ppg. We can get to 17 right?

    $$$ SAINTS -6 @ JETS $$$
    Not exactly buying into Geno Smith just yet, even with a few 4th quarter comebacks he’s been less than impressive, and the Jets d has been keeping them in games. In fact I’d love to give the defense all kinds of props for their toughness against the run (#1 in the NFL @ 77 ypg), however, that only works against teams who want to run the football. The Saints just want to throw, and they want to score in a hurry. Not sure I can envision a scenario that has the Jets within a touchdown, but stranger things have happened. They played within a field goal of the Patriots both times they faced off. They beat the Falcons on the road. But i think the realest Jets we’ve seen showed up last week in Cincinnati and got their asses destroyed. Of Note: the Jets offense has just 11 touchdowns in 8 games. Drew Brees has thrown for 19 in just 7 games. VALUE PICK.

  • Bevilacqua

    OSU (-31) over Purdue
    Will OSU score over 40? I think so. Will Purdue score? Probably not more than 10.

    UCLA (-26.5) over Colorado
    This game is well documented already on this site, but I still like Brett Hundley a lot. I wouldn’t be upset if the Browns end up with him eventually. Colorado is just awful.

    Miami (+22) over Florida St.
    This goes against my better judgement, but after a conversation with my brother, I’ll follow his lead. Boston College plays similarly to Miami, and played FSU tough earlier this year (48-34). And how often do you get 22 points with a top-10 team against an interstate rival?

    • Bevilacqua

      Let me add a couple more:
      Texas (-28) over Kansas
      I’ll keep picking against Charlie Weis until it doesn’t work.

      Virginia Tech (-4.5) over Boston College
      Frank Beamer seems to respond will every time we all think VT is down and out.

      • hmmm.. i will call texas your 4th non-essay pick, drop vatech, and we await your allplay and essay pick? sound good?

        • Bevilacqua

          Sorry for the confusion. I was posting these during a brutal Saturday professional development session, and I wasn’t really paying attention. I feel guilty about dropping the VT pick, now that I see how it played out (hindsight is 20-20, right?). Based on my luck with the NFL this season, can I just make the Miami pick my essay? I’ll even add 90+ words to it:

          I believe in Al Golden. I saw him turn around a Temple program, and now that they’re a few coaches removed from him, it’s amazing how quickly Temple has regressed. You gotta like a guy that sticks with a job despite all that Ned Shapiro controversy. The NCAA definitely gave Miami a slap on the wrist (SI ran an article a couple months back that even outlined how Shapiro used his inside information to make millions betting on Miami games), but the presence of Golden simply balances out all the karma there. Miami will keep it within 21.

          • you got it!

          • Bevilacqua

            All Play: Browns (+2.5) over Ravens
            Raiders (+3) over Eagles

  • Nick

    Only 3 picks today including essay:
    All Play: Browns +2.5 vs Balt
    Essay Pick: Iowa +9.5 vs Wiscy

    I would say Iowa fans are cautiously optimistic about this
    game. The 3 teams they’ve lost to are NIU, MSU, and OSU, with a combined record
    of 23-1! Plus they probably should have won the game against NIU. I like the
    fact they have been in every game this season. Maybe it’s just me, but Iowa
    seems more relevant this year.

    Wiscy didn’t play last weekend, it’s always tough to gauge
    if this is a good or bad thing.

    These two teams haven’t played each other in 2 years. The all-time
    record between these two is 42-42-2. I’ll take the home team with points please
    for my essay.

    Minny +10 vs Indiana

    Minnesota has been double digits dogs the past two weeks
    against Northwestern and Nebraska and won them both outright. Yet again they
    are 10 pt dawgs at Indiana on home coming weekend. I think the Gophers will run
    the ball effectively to control the clock and keep the IU offense out of rhythm.
    This is a tough Minnesota team, and I don’t think they will take this game
    lightly.

    *Wanted to make this my essay but I’m afraid of Indiana’s
    offense laying a smack down. Also, last time I made an essay pick against
    Indiana, they made me look silly by blowing out Bowling Green at home.

    • Nick

      Please put me on the Saints, Pats, and Colts tonight to round off my pics. thx

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Northern ill -31 @ umass
    Penn st -10 vs ill
    Utsa +3 @ Tulsa
    Fsu -22 vs miami
    Be back tomorrow with nfl and essay

  • p_forever

    Browns +2.5 ravens
    UCLA -26.5 colorado
    Mississippi st. +13 so. carolina
    Penn st. -10 Illinois***
    Wake +3 syracuse
    ND -17 navy

    Both Penn St. and Illinois are coming off of huge home losses
    – Penn State at the hand of Ohio State (63-14), and Illinois by Michigan State (42-3). But there’s a big difference between a crushing by a national championship caliber team and a crushing by sparty. Ohio state finally decided to play the way
    they could have been playing all year – we all knew they were going to start
    crushing people, and Penn St came along when they needed style points the most. But no one knows how to pick themselves up after utter awfulness better than Penn St., and they aren’t nearly as terrible as Ohio State made them look, anyway. The
    Illini, on the other hand, are not pretty good, and no one should be getting
    crushed by an MSU team that barely even has an offense. Illinois has lost 3 straight, and I don’t see them picking up a win on the road today (which, by the way, will be only theirsecond road game this season).

  • Rich Swerbinsky

    East Carolina Pirates -25
    Navy Midshipmen +17
    Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5
    Baltimore Ravens -2.5
    Buffalo Bills +3
    ***Washington Redskins p

    Against the public play. Everyone is on the Chargers who won their last two games before their bye week last week. I like the Skins to rebound from last weeks meltdown vs Denver, to get Alfred Morris involved, and for them to play well and win this week against a Chargers team that already has road losses at Tennessee and Oakland this year.

  • trashycamaro

    All PLay: @CLE + 2.5 over BAL. Come on Browns!

    Essay: SD PK over @WAS. I really do not know much about these teams outside of the national narratives: WAS is

    struggling hard in RG3’s first year back from ACL (which usually takes 2 years for full recovery, so personally not

    too worried ofr him) combined with terrible defensive play, while SD is being led by rejuvenated Phillip Rivers who

    looks great throwing the ball (how great would that have been if the Browns could have pried him away in the

    offseason). So, stats from Football Outsiders:

    WAS SD

    Record 2-5 4-3
    Playoff Status 2.5 back second wild card
    Overall DVOA -24.2 (30th) 1.3 (15th)
    Offense -0.4 (15th) 25 (3rd)
    Defense 8 (27th) 22.8 (32nd)
    Special Teams -15.8 (32nd) -1 (23rd)

    Special Note – SD defense is all around awful, 30th against the pass and 31st against the run, and a variance of only 3%, good for the 7th lowest variance in the league (read: they are always bad). The good news is the offense (2nd in passing) also has only a 3% variance (7th in the league) which means they are consistently very good. WAS is strong in the running game (3rd), but the passing attack is average.

    SD needs all the wins it can get to hang in the playoff race and needs all the wins it can get. Rivers has been great this year, and he will need another good game to get out ahead of the WAS to help neutralize the WAS running game a little. In a pick ’em game, I think this is a pretty easy call. For real life purposes, over on the 51 probably looks pretty enticing as well.

    College: MICH +5.5 over @MSU. Too many points for an in-state rivalry. (Little brother can’t hang).

    NFL 1: KC +3 over @BUF. Three points? Really?

    NFL 2: TENN -3 over @STL. Anybody watch St. Louis play offense? And now Stacy is hurt.

    NFL 3: @OAK +3 over @PHI. Foles/Vick/Barkley in the Black Hole? Charlie Heisman will take care of business (well, Pryor actually, but I prefer my Heisman-winning Wolverines).

    • Chiefs are -3 not plus three.. I assume you know this but let me know if you want out.

  • ChuckKoz

    FSU -22 (vs Miami)
    Cowboys -10 (vs Vikings)
    Saints -6 (at Jets)
    Falcons +7.5 (at Panthers)
    AP: Browns +2.5 (vs Ravens)
    Essay: UCLA -26.5 (vs Colorado)

    Since forming the Pac-12, UCLA won by 28 last year in Boulder and by 39 the prior year. And this UCLA team is the best of the bunch. True, Colorado seems to be heading the right direction, but that still means being winless in conference with its “closest” game a 22 point loss at home to Arizona. Couple that with UCLA coming off of 2 very rough road games (at Stanford and at Oregon) and some home-cooking against the conference’s worst is just the perfect thing for UCLA to get back on track. Oh, and UCLA has won all 3 home games by at least 27, so there’s that.

  • Petefranklin

    Essay play: Syracuse -3 vs Wake Forest.
    How would you like to be a player on the Orange after getting demolished 62-0 in Atlanta. Everyone would be making fun of you and your girlfriend might be ready to ditch you. Now expand that by an added week. The coaches have run you into oblivion, your girlfriend has left you and your friends don’t want to be seen on campus with you.
    Two weeks after an absolute blowout, look for a focused effort from the Orange. They have only one recourse for redemption and that is a win tomorrow morning.
    Wake may be somewhat focused as well but after letting one get away , they have to be thinking about last week. Remember what happened to UConn after Michigan? They got blown out on the road.
    Cuse does have a QB controversy going on(6 int’s to 3 TD’s vs GT) but that is probably a good thing here. Us Clown fans know what a QB can mean to the team, and a little pressure from the backup might help with an extra week.
    Look for Wake’s offense to be disrupted all day by an angry and fresh Cuse D line which happens to be the teams strength. I laid four so 3 seems nice, and how can you go against a team on Mcnabbs jersey retirement day, in a city where they haven’t retired Jim Browns 44, but actually changed their zip code to end in 44! Go Cuse for threeeeeeeeeee!!!!

    • Petefranklin

      Tulane +4 over FAU

      • Petefranklin

        FUCK!!!! I GOT LANGED.
        Rule #1 of betting….Never EVER bet any $$$$ until you find out who Brandon Lang is on, you NEVER want to be on the same side.

        • Petefranklin

          Urban dictionary “Langed”

    • Petefranklin

      Georgia -2.5 over Florida

    • Petefranklin

      Penn St -10 over Illinois

  • mrickman

    ravens -2.5
    northern illinois -23
    wake forest +3
    auburn -8
    tulane +4

    western kentucky -19.5
    the decision for georgia state to become fbs before it or anyone at the college was ready is costing the panthers dearly. so while this wku team under bobby petrino isn’t exactly inspiring any confidence that petrino is ready to jump ship and grab another big time gig (not that there’s any doubt he’ll try), this line isn’t nearly high enough. georgia state is the fourth-worst team in college football via f/+ ratings; kentucky is 75th. compare that with the florida state-miami line (22 points) for teams separated by just 15 spots in f/+, that’s kind of insane. there might be some points automatically given to teams playing at home, but georgia state is averaging so few fans their fbs status is already at risk. if western kentucky turns it over a ton, maybe this thing stays within 30, but on the surface this looks like an easy pick to me.

  • jdoepke

    start me off with USC +5 tonight. Rest to come momentarily…

    • jdoepke

      Well I would love to break out of this season of mediocrity and not being able to win essay picks. Thanks for the push last week VA, really appreciate giving up the late score for the push. While we’re on that topic, nice game by my Bengals last night. Brought back memories of the 90’s. Thanks for that. Always fun watching new and creative ways to lose football games. Ok here we go…in addition to USC +5 tonight….

      Indiana -9.5
      Oklahoma St. +2
      Ravens -2.5 (AP)
      Jets +6

      Essay: Florida St -22
      So I’m also the guy who had Clemson at home vs. Florida St a couple of weeks ago. Here’s the thing, I hate betting favorites, BUT this is two top 10 teams and the spread is 22!?! When was the last time a pair of top 10 teams hooked up and the spread was this big? I see a lot of similarities to the Oregon UCLA game and spread last week. Oregon was laying 22ish last week against a ranked UCLA team. It was tied at half and in the end too much Oregon. I firmly believe Vegas knows more than I do which makes me like the Seminoles in this spot. The line is way too big for an in state rivalry game where they all know each other and both are top 10 teams. Florida St 56 Miami 24

  • zarathustra

    Oregon St -5 over USC
    I saw 84% of wagers are this side so that is a bit problematic to say the least. Also USC may kind of be a poor man’s Stanford which would indicate another bad match-up for the beaver offense. However, last week’s Trojan performance against Utah should be taken with a grain of salt. Travis Wilson played injured. The utes had four turnovers and the Trojans walked away with 19 points at the end of the game.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine

    Memphis (lose, dammit)
    USC +5 / Oregon St.
    Hawaii +22.5 / USU
    California +16 / Arizona
    Iowa +9.5 / Wisconsin

    Ravens -2.5 / Browns – I would take the Browns where the line opened at +3.5 or +3, but now it is down to +2.5 and it just feels like a game the Browns are bound to lose by a FG…. Probably after Cundiff misses a kick that would have won or sent it to OT.

  • rodofdisaster

    Browns

    Texas Longhorns -28

    The U + 22*** Essay- will pass this week.

    Dallas -10

    San Diego PK

    Steelers +7

  • architectartvandelay

    Toledo -31.5 vs EMU

    Auburn -8 @ Arkansas

    ULLafayette -31 vs NMSU

    NIU -23 @ UMass

    AP: Ravens -2.5 @ Browns – Normally I would never go against a stinky fish but my brother will in attendance. He is running at an 0-7 SU & ATS clip. My hope is my cheddar point will swing it the other way for him.

    Essay: UCLA -26.5 vs Colorado

    Colorado is really bad & UCLA needs to right the ship after two tough outings against Stanford & Oregon. They are still in the running for the Pac 12 South & can win it by winning out. So they have plenty to play for against a bad team.
    3 players have been named PAC-12 player of the week after going against Colorado so that should make Brett Hundley smile. Colorado just came off a performance where they gave up 405 yards to Arizona & that was only on the ground. They dont defend the pass much better giving up 268 yards per game.
    Colorado’s two best offensive players both were injured last week so if they even play they certainly will not be 100%.

  • FTCMikeD

    OkSt +2 over @TTU
    @FSU -22 over Miami (FL)

    @Panthers -7.5 over Falcons
    Titans -3 over @Rams
    Chargers PK over @Redskins
    ******AP: @Browns +2.5 over Ratbirds

    ******Time to show us what you’re made of Browns. You played well last week and by all accounts the locker room was upbeat due to the play of Campbell. And really, that is just a response to not having to have Weeds out there. Last time in Bmore, the Browns actually looked pretty good, just couldn’t score down the stretch. Now in Ctown look for that strong defensive performance to repeat itself, while the offense is improved with Gordon+Campbell. The ratbirds are coming off of a bye, but have generally looked un-Super this year. Perhaps they are looking ahead to their match-up against Cincy next week. Anyways, I think the Browns steal one here and get off the losing streak.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Penn St -10 over Illinois ***
    Ravens -2.5 over Browns
    Houston -17.5 over USF (Already submitted)
    Oregon St -5 over USC
    Rams +3 over Titans
    Steelers +6.5 over Patriots

    *** The Nittany Lions are like night and day between home games and away games. Yeah my alma mater got thumped on the road at Ohio St last week but things snowballed on them and you can’t turn that around. Plus having a true freshman QB
    go into that environment is a tall task. Bill O’Brian gets these guys motivated to play every week. This week Illinois and their garbage defense (giving up 46 pts/game over the past 3 games) will not be able to slow down a group of guys coming into their own for PSU….. Hackenberg, Belton, and Robinson. This Robinson kid is turning into one of the best receivers in the nation (12 catches against Ohio St ain’t too shabby.) This is also Illinois’ 2nd away game of the season.

  • CLEVTA

    7-0 ticket count on Houston last night says a lot and mirrored the public percentages. Had a feeling that wouldn’t cover. Props to cheddar for at least getting an even split on Miami/Cinci. Much better than the 70+% by the public on the Bungles. Terrible road tm btw.
    1. Memphis (L)
    2. Browns +2.5 (All play)
    3. USC+5 (Essay): Both Marqise Lee and Xavier Grimble are expected to play tonight giving USC their big weapons back. That defense is still humming along and since Lane was fired have been playing even better. On a yds/play basis Oregon St has played the 122nd ranked opponent run offense, 84th ranked opp pass offense and 99th ranked opp pass defense. Yes that’s a cupcake schedule. And they couldn’t muster much against Stanford last week (3.5 yds/play), the first real defense before they see USC tonight. 76% of the public on Oregon St tonight too.USC shut down a really good Utah pass offense last week and should slow down Mannion and Cooks tonight as well. Line down to 3.5 so a bit of value here on the Trojans.
    4. Pitt +10: Pitt just came off facing the option last vs Navy. They actually held the run game fairly in check (4.7 ypc) so they should fair just as well this week v Ga tech.

    5. S Alabama -3
    6. Texans +2.5: Indy huge primetime public fav. No Wayne and Indy struggles on the road. Couldn’t muster anything against a poor SD offense. Houston off a bye with another week for Keenum to pick up the offense should be good.

  • @Memphis +2.5 Cincy (loss)

    Style point Saturday!!
    NIU -23 @UMASS
    OSU -31 @Purdue
    Auburn -8 @Arkansas

    ****@FSU -22 Miami
    Imagine you’re Jimbo Fisher. You tried. You tried to be decent, civilized, to do right. Yes, you’re #2 in the BCS Standings and know the games historically played with these voters but that doesn’t mean you have to be a total dick. It’s 2013; voters are more sophisticated. So… when you’re brutalizing NCST 42-0 at halftime at Tallahassee you have a decision to make. And you’re thinking, it’s not like we haven’t already run up 62, 54, 63 points at home already this year… we don’t have to prove anything here do we? It’s 42-0 at halftime for crissakes, we’ve demonstrated that can name our score here and if we chose to win 84-0, we could. You allow your common decency to rule the day decide to sit your starters in the second half. Welp, next thing you know NCST has scored 17 points and now you’re running trick plays just to cover the bettors of the early line. Not good enough though, you win by 32 points and apparently some of the BCS voters took the late -35 line because on Monday you’re ranked third in the BCS.

    What.
    the.
    fuck.

    Lesson learned by FSU? BCS voters are douchebags and apparently without cable tv access. Rookie mistake by Jimbo and not to be repeated. Woe betide the next team FSU plays anywhere. But in Tallahassee? Against ranked team?? At night??? Nationally televised???? On basic cable????? Oh Miami, you’re so screwed.

    It matters little that Miami barely beat Wake Forest at home last week or that Stephen Morris is the most overrated college QB/draft prospect since Logan-Thomas-last-year. The only teams that FSU would fail to score 60+ points on are Bama, Oregon, and OSU. The Miami-rivalry-game and their ranking only enhances the degree of difficulty. Seriously, FSU may run it to 100 just to jam it up the BCS voters’ asses. Who could blame them?

    Also playing Marshall, Army, Wake, GSU, MTSU, UGA, IU, Toledo, SALA; Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Pats, Packers.

    Back later with the Browns/Ravens pick.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Memphis (L)
    Mizzou -11 Tenn U
    Northwestern +7.5 Nebraska
    (AP) Browns of course
    Colts -2.5 Texans
    ***Saints -6 Jets

    ***Not sure why I’ve stayed away from the Saints thus far, but this one jumped out at me. The Jets will of course be out to erase the sting of that a**-whooping they took last week, but keep the salve handy, guys. Rob is coming to town. He’s done some nice things with his unit in NO, taking some of the load off of Brees and the offense. And God knows he wants to finally beat his brother. I would not want to be Geno Smith this week. He’ll be getting the full treatment from Rob, while trying to eat the clock to keep Brees off the field. Good luck, young man. The Saints have the best road record in the league for 4 years running (23-12), so NY doesn’t even have that going for them.

  • Concierge

    Gimme rice +3

  • WFNY Rick

    I will start with a little Michigan State -5.5 over the Wolverines. I’m considering making that my essay. Stay tuned.

    • SO MAD I DIDN’T MAKE MICHIGAN STATE MY ESSAY!!! Argh.

      Ok here are the rest. I’ve got nothing better for the NFL action than home dogs.

      Michigan St over Michigan (Yay!)

      Jets +6 over Saints (home dogs)
      Texans +2.5 over Colts (home dogs)
      Browns +2.5 over Ravens (All play. And home dogs)
      Rams +3 over Titans (home dogs)

      Essay: Raiders +3 over Eagles

      Is there any solid logic in taking all home dogs? Probably not.. But I believe that home dogs are faring better than my usual picks, so why not?

      This isn’t as much a vote of confidence in the Raiders as it is an indictment of the Eagles. Why in the world are the Eagles favored in this game anyway? Philly is 3-5, Oakland is 3-4. Philly’s defense gives up 5 more points per game than Oakland’s. Philly is doing the dreaded east coast to west coast thing. Even with Foles back under center, I don’t like this team.

      So give me Oakland AND three points. It’s like stealing your kids’ Halloween candy after they go to sleep.

  • Jeff Rich

    Bengals (-2.5) at DOLPHINS

    • Jeff Rich

      AKRON (-1) vs Kent State
      MICHIGAN STATE (-5.5) vs Michigan
      Saints (-6) at JETS
      *BROWNS (+3) vs Ravens*
      ***RAIDERS (+3) vs Eagles***
      The last time Terrelle Pryor took on a Chip Kelly-led team, a LeGarrette Blount fumble turned the tide for Pryor’s team, but it’s a whole new ball game in the NFL, right? Maybe not.

      I mean, we’ve seen all the whispers about how Pryor should appreciate being born at the perfect time to fit in the NFL, and it’s true. Dennis Allen is one of the Head Coaches that no one really seem to know a lot about, and really, what’s the point, because it’s just another Raiders Head Coach that the Davis family will dismiss before we get much of a chance to learn. I don’t know; maybe they’re on the right track.

      Either way, Matt Barkley and Nick Foles are brutal, and everyone has Chip figured out, and in just a few short weeks. RRRRRRRRRadiers!!!

  • TheKardiacKid

    TheKardiacKid
    Bengals -2.5 @Miami

  • zarathustra

    I will make bengals my essay.

  • Art_Brosef

    These games tonight are interesting. Houston and North Texas opened at -15.5 and -4, respectively. Since then though, the moves have responded completely different as it relates to this contest.. Houston is -17.5 for sake of our little contest here, and actually sits at -18.5 as I type this. Conversely, North Texas has moved to -4.5 for Cheddar Bay, yet presently sits at -2.5. So, ill take Houston -17.5 for one Cheddar point and also roll the dice with Rice +4.5 which not only only allows me to pick up two points on the up-to-date market, but those two points sprinted across a key number. As such, Cheddar me up an essay with Rice +4.5. Both of these teams can score and this game should be close. Ive been on North Texas for weeks now, and tonight seems as good of a time as any to jump off.

    Houston
    ***Rice

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Miami Dolphins: Well, he we are, Week 9. At this point, the public has pretty entrenched ideas about how good or bad these teams are. In the case of the Dolphins, things started out so well, and then they really hit the skids. They have stumbled into this one losing their last 4, capped by a second half implosion at home last week against the Patriots. Factor in losing a starting tackle during the week because he left the team after being pranked (wtf?!) and things just aren’t looking good. On the other side, you have one of the better squads in the NFL and a darkhorse super bowl contender (they actually might be my pick). They have been firing on all cylinders and are off the massive dismantling last week of the pathetic Jets. Should be another easy win. Line opened low, and has inched up, with the public all over the Bengals. Something tells me it won’t be easy, however, and this will be a solid last stand for the Dolphins.

    Others:
    Indiana Hoosiers
    Buffalo Bills
    Florida St. Semenholes
    Michigan St. Spartans

    All play: Cleveland

  • Dennis Hemingway

    For starters, I’ll hop on the Houston bandwagon tonight and take them -17.5 over USF. When the score ends up 37-20 b/c of rain, I’ll remind myself to stay away from Thursday night games. And yes, trying reverse psychology at this point to turn the tide.

  • Peter Markos

    Browns
    Houston -17 over USF- I miss you Jim Leavitt.
    DAL -10 over MINN
    SEA -16.5 over TB Schiano gets fired on the tarmac in Seattle. That would be cool. In a league that is trying to mitigate unnecessary hits, this clown turns victory formations into goal line stands. he lost the locker room before he ever had it. The sooner he goes the sooner a turnaround can happen. Dominic needs to go with him.
    GB -11 over CHI
    NE -7 over PITT

    • chuckycrater

      RE: USF – I do too.

      RE: jank Schiano getting the Kiffin treatment – from your mouth to the Glazers’ ears.

      • Peter Markos

        He should walk back to Jersey

  • zarathustra

    Bengals -2.5 over Dolphins
    This is the second time in the past three weeks that I was excited to take the home dog in a smart spot and flipped to the road favorite. Road favorites are 4-0 on Thursdays this year so it is even more dangerous to lay the points here as the trend is due to reverse. Add in the bengals blowout last week and the wise move is dolphins. However, the suspect dolphin o-line lost a starting tackle this week apparently due to some sort of mental illness. This makes a short week harder. A short week is also less than ideal coming off a devastating loss. The Dolphins are not a confident team right now and Ryan Tannehill is their qb. The nice start is a distant memory and he again looks like ryan tannehill. This is also the second week in a row that the bengals face a team coming off a solid statistical performance against an undermanned patriots d. We saw the stark difference between the bengals d and beat up pats was nicely illustrated last week. I suspect we will see the difference(though not as much as geno smith is not the dolphins qb)gain this week against a locked in bengals team.
    Congratulations dolphins fans! You were one of the winners of the offseason. Totally shocking things haven’t turned out better. At least you had a chance to play brandon weeden though.
    One point.

  • chuckycrater

    ALL PLAY: Browns +2.5

    Basically a “when in Rome” pick.

    UTEP +45.5 vs. Texas A&M

    A&M shouldn’t be favored by 45.5 points against anyone with that defense, and they have bigger fish to fry.

    Tulane +4 vs. FAU

    Was a bad line even before the Carl Pelini story broke. FAU shouldn’t be favored against more than half a dozen teams, and Tulane is not one of them.

    Colts -2.5 vs. Texans

    I think the Texans are done and I like that I don’t even have to give a field goal to be proven right.

    Penn State -10 vs. Illinois

    Penn State is a million times better at home than on the road, and the Illini are awful anywhere.

    ESSAY: Houston -17.5 vs. USF

    Let me add up all the ways in which I think this will be a blowout.

    1. USF hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last three games.
    2. USF is giving a true freshman QB his first start on the road and on a short week.
    3. Houston has scored in every single quarter this season.
    4. Houston leads FBS in turnover margin. See #2.
    5. USF has been mostly awful against teams that can throw the ball and their DC, fresh off 20 years of NFL coaching, hasn’t ever had to gameplan for a pure spread/Air Raid team like this.
    6. USF has lost every single Thursday night ESPN game they’ve ever played. Every. Single. One.

    Of course my essay luck has been so horrible this year that USF will likely pull off some absurd lateral drill on the last play of the game and only lose by 17.

  • Jeff overberger

    Dolphins +2.5 vs Bengals
    NIU -23 vs UMass
    Titans -3 vs Rams
    Chiefs +3 vs Bills
    Browns +2.5 vs Ravens (All Play)

    Colts -2.5 vs Texans (Essay)

    I find it hard to imagine that a 2-5 Texans team with awful
    QB play this season will keep within a field goal of a 5-2 Andrew Luck led
    Colts team. Colts are 2-1 on the Road
    where they have beaten San Fran while Houston has lost to the Rams at home (by
    25) albeit with Sam Bradford. Houston
    does allow the fewest passing yards in the league and I would assume that is why
    the line is so close but the Colts can rush too even though Trent Richardson couldn’t
    find a hole to run though if it were the size of the Grand Canyon.

  • pateslvrblk

    Auburn -8 over Arkansas
    Boise St -6 over Colorado State
    Georgia Tech -10 over Pittsburg
    Browns-2.5 over Ravens
    Saints-6 over Jets
    ***Patriots -6.5 over Steelers
    Wahoo!!! Red Sox won the World Series!! In Boston! At Fenway!! Game six at home and the Red Sox came out victorious. Fenway fans were going crazy last night and I have to believe the spirit will continue at Gillette Stadium on Sunday! There’s now a high in Boston and why not! Boston fans love it and the Patriots will let the fever continue this Sunday against the Steelers! Boston Strong!

  • Capitalgg

    More to come later, but wanted to get this locked in while I was looking at it.

    1) Dolphins +2.5 v. Cincinnati: Love home dogs on Thursday and Cincy is due a down week after their walkover the Jets on Sunday.

    • Capitalgg

      Week 10:

      All-play: Browns +2.5 v. Ravens: Because Jason Campbell provides somewhere near adequate QB play and suddenly the Browns are a pretty fun team to watch.
      1) win Dolphins +2.5 v. Bengals: Wow, I actually hit one. And on an OT safety to boot.
      2) Northern Illinois -23 @ UMass: This one could be inexplicably close, but it shouldn’t be. NIU is a 35 point better team than UMass.
      3) Minnesota +9.5 @ Indiana: I figured This line would settle around 5.5-6.5. Nine is too many for a game Minnesota could just as easily win outright.
      4) Tulsa -3 v. UTSA: Beep! Beep! + Hurriane! = Plucked Roadrunner.

      I have no idea how I settled on my picks this week. I’ve been battling a stomach bug most of the week and it’s been made worse by being absolutely buried under salt in the mine this week. Just brutal. All around brutal. This would have been my essay punt week, but I already know I’ve got to use it next week.

      So the weekend has arrived. My guts are healing and football returns to my television set. I’ve got a nice relaxing Saturday of football watching planned. Then on Sunday, tailgating returns to the north shore. Works for me!

      Now I have to pick some games. This is one of the oddest weeks I’ve seen ever. The lines are all very tight. Many teams appear to be off (at least my favorite standbys, like Ball St.). And last week was so very close to a Cheddar Bay disaster (I went 9-5 +5 units against my bookie).

      I went away from my Cheddar Bay MAC mojo and it bit me as Clemson didn’t come close to covering 2 TDs. So I’m going back to the MAC this week and riding Kent St. +1. Felt this should be a Kent -2 or -2.5 but can get a point. The seems like 3.5 points of clearance, so I’ll take it.

      Other Plays:
      Tennessee +11 @ Missouri
      Penn St. -10 v. Illinois
      Georgia -2.5 v. Florida
      Texas Tech -2 v. Oklahoma St.
      Syracuse -3 v. Wake Forest
      Oregon St. -5 v. USC
      Temple +13.5 @ Rutgers
      Wisconsin -9.5 @ Iowa
      South Carolina -13 v. Mississippi St.
      Texas -28 v. Kansas

  • cwonder23

    Bengals -2.5 @ Dolphins

  • GRRustlers

    Week 10 Picks

    AP – Browns (+2.5) over Ravens – Mainly because I want to believe. I think competent QB play is all you really need. I still don’t believe in anyone in this division and 8 wins gets you a trip to Denver for a playoff game…and man that would be fun.

    Akron (-1) over Kent – Kent is just a shell of what they were last year due to injuries and it’s time for the Wagon Wheel to come back home.

    Marshall (-30.5) over USM – Because sometimes even I have to back away from Idaho…Hi Southern Miss. You are awful.

    OSU (-31) over Purdue – I kind of feel bad for Purdue in this spot because Urban does not give a shit. Nor should he.

    PSU (-10) over Illinois – Classic overreaction to OSU game as people forgetting the fact that Illinois stinks.

    Essay Pick

    Are we doing this again?

    Is there something off in Vegas or with the general public because of how badly NIU struggled in the Orange Bowl last year? Looks like all that FSU team needed was a QB (I think they found him). I mean they are undefeated in the Big 10 this year.

    UMass is in a tough spot here. They have only broken double digits vs FBS teams twice all year. 17 vs Miami in a win and 30 in a loss vs a dreadful WMU team. I just can’t see anyway they score enough to even keep this remotely close.

    This is a style point game for NIU in an NFL stadium on the east coast and I don’t think they get caught looking ahead to the big game with Ball State next week. Like it or not America NIU is headed back to the BCS.

    NIU (-23) over UMass

  • CleveLandThatILove

    I’m in for Memphis +2.5 tonight as well, what the heck.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine
    Memphis +2.5 / Cincinnati (essay)

    Had my eye on this since Monday, disappointed to see the line dropped to +2.5 by Cheddar posting time….I liked it better at +3, but I
    think Memphis wins this one straight up so I’m not sweating +2.5 all
    that much. Seeing skanky fish support makes me feel even better. UC is 5-2, Memphis is 1-5, and the line is less than
    a field goal. Seems too easy. But UC has done nothing but scrape the
    bottom of the barrel this season in it’s five wins, beating some of the
    absolute worst in FBS (MiamiU., Temple, UConn, Purdue, and an FCS team) – does any team have a less impressive 5 win resume? UC is
    also the team that let USF get into the win column, no small feat there.
    And they’re on the road tonight. UC’s only road win occurred at
    MiamiU., two touchdowns late in the 4th quarter against the worst team
    in FBS. Memphis, on the other hand, hung in there against Houston and
    UCF (the “class” of the AAC if such a thing can be proclaimed), and
    mounted a comeback against SMU last week that just fell short. Memphis
    held Houston’s prolific offense to 25 on the road and lost by 7 at home
    to UCF, who as it turns out is a pretty good team. Memphis plays solid
    defense. That bodes well for a Wednesday night at home. Somebody is
    going to make a pile of money off Memphis tonight, I’ll just take the
    Tigers for 3 cheddar points to get my week off to a good start.

  • I’m joining TA on Memphis +2.5 tonite.

    • Petefranklin

      You(Memphis) got “Langed”. It is a true phenomenon because it’s in the urban dictionary.

  • acto

    ap Browns +2.5 over The Stinking Ratbirds

    Cinn U -2.5 over Memphis

    Northern Illinois -23 over Mass

    Ohio State -31 over Purdue

    Kent State +1 over Akron

    Essay ****UTSA +3 over Tulsa**** No shower week, I mean no essay week. Well, both actually.

  • CLEVTA

    Cheddar me Memphis +2.5 tonight for my first pick of the week. Practice what you preach right?

    • i need to overcome my Cincy-phobia. The one time I played against them was the time they looked good and yes that was Purdue…

  • humboldt

    Jim, nice work on the WFNY thread yesterday – am always amazed at how the expansion Browns consistently court the most bizarre of controversies.

    As for the link to the Cribbs/Ellerbe video from last year’s Ravens game, I can’t watch it. It literally made me sick last year and I had to go outside and walk around during the first half. But yeah, Cribbs sure owes us and is an ungrateful prick, etc…

    • thanks buddy and yes.

    • bupalos

      I don’t think he “owes” us. But I don’t really understand what the “we’re not the Browns” thing is supposed to be about, or how it’s supposed to be the fault of spell-checking. Really Josh, a spellchecker turned “this team won’t quit” into “this team won’t quit LIKE THE BROWNS.” I mean, why say that? That really isn’t done, and to go out and do it says something no matter whether you are a star QB or some benchrider.

      Personally I think there is something flat wrong with Cribbs. I stopped enjoying watching him play those last 2 years. He didn’t just play tough, he played like he had a death wish. He went out of his way to actually praise the Harrison headhunting and celebration of concussions, which in that game extended not just to himself but Massaquoi too. He injected himself into controversy around coaches and offenses in a pretty unprofessional way, he pouted for money, got it, and stopped producing after getting paid. Neither side really owes anything at this point, but that’s exactly why the gratuitous mention sets it off.

      Not to blow it up, but it is what it is. The guy is trying to buy cred in NY by dragging down Cleveland. He probably thought it wouldn’t be noticed, then tried to do a version of “my twitter was hacked.”

      • I think it would have been cleaner without the apology/excuse tap-dance, agreed. Feels like a ‘handler’ got to him and said he might jeopardize Cleveland post-career endorsements or whatever. I think we can all agree that Cribbs’ management has been sub-par. I still don’t see 1) where Cribbs needs to be grateful to Cleveland for anything or 2) how this qualifies is being ungrateful.

        The guy played balls out on teams that didn’t for, what, seven years? Option three is that he offered a factually correct statement intended to support and motivate his new teammates and also to ingratiate himself with them. I see nothing wrong with any of that. I see a lot wrong with thin skinned Browns fans scuttling to the defense of the 2006-2012 Browns and heaping scorn on one of the two(?) players over that time span who could be counted on to give all and to give all at an elite level in his position.

        Like.. get over yourselves. The team is looking better now. You really want to go back and talk about the last four games in seasons 06, 08, 10, 11, and 12?

        Because in the last four games in those five seasons the Browns were 1-19.

        And if that’s not quitting I don’t know what is.

      • I think it would have been cleaner without the apology/excuse tap-dance, agreed. Feels like a ‘handler’ got to him and said he might jeopardize Cleveland post-career endorsements or whatever. I think we can all agree that Cribbs’ management has been sub-par. I still don’t see 1) where Cribbs needs to be grateful to Cleveland for anything or 2) how this qualifies as being ungrateful.

        Option 3 is that he offered a factually correct statement intended to support and motivate his new teammates and also to ingratiate himself with them. I see nothing wrong with any of that. I see a lot wrong with thin skinned Browns fans scuttling to the defense of the 2006-2012 Browns and heaping scorn on one of the two(?) players over that time span who could be counted on to give all and to give all at an elite level in his position.

        Like.. get over yourselves. The team is looking better now. You really want to go back and talk about the last four games in seasons 06, 08, 10, 11, and 12?

        Because in the last four games in those five seasons the Browns were 1-19.

        And if that’s not quitting I don’t know what is.

  • CLEVTA

    Quick adjustment to the weekly skanky picks. NO MORE MAC GAMES! Im 0-3 with the MAC with these picks and every week the MAC gives us the weirdest, more unusual line movements on a weekly basis which also lends to some of the largest public divide splits you will see. Lets not act like the MAC hasn’t produced shady activities in the past (ahem the ghost of Scooter McDougle rings a bell) http://www.toledoblade.com/sports/2011/06/27/Ex-Toledo-University-football-player-Scooter-McDougle-to-plead-guilty-in-point-shaving-case.html). Take out MAC games and the skanky picks have gone 20-10-2. And to be honest I was close to not even posting these anymore since Arizona/ATL was on the list and what happens but 15 cheddarers decided to ignore and take ATL out of 20 total picks in that game, including a bunch of ATL essays! Oh well hopefully some people used the info to their advantage and made (or saved) some cheddar.

    NCAA:
    -Memphis +2.5 v CIN (Opened CIN -3.5, now 2.5. 78% of public on CIN) PK:Memphis
    -CSU +6.5 v Boise (Opened Boise -7.5, now -6. 63% of public on Boise) PK:CSU
    -Tenn +11 v Mizzou (Opened Mizzou -13, now -11. 67% on Mizzou) PK: Tenn

    NFL:
    – Buff +3 v KC (Opened KC -3.5, now -3. 69% of public on KC) PK: Buff
    – Browns +2.5 v Balt (Opened Balt -3, now 2.5. 68% on Balt) PK: CLE (!!!)

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