#CheddarBay Week 9: Toledo +3.5 at BGSU. #MACtion!

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Oh hell yes this is serious.

*****LATE LINE:  COLO ST -4 AT HAWAI’I*****

If there’s one MACtion game deserving of your attention and of Cheddar’s All-Play designation, it’s this one.  Acknowledged by Hustle Belt as the MAC’s Best Rivalry, The Peace Pipe, oh sorry, The Battle of I-75 (are you kidding me?) goes back to 1919.  Toledo leads 18-15.  If that doesn’t sound like a lot of games, you’re right.  Seems like there were several post-game riots in the history resulting in suspending the series for a decade now and then.  Not too too surprising since they’re about 30 minutes away from each other.Screen Shot 2013-10-23 at 6.53.44 AM

Anyways, this year’s Battle of I-75 has both teams at the top of the MAC.  BGSU is undefeated in conference and tied with UBuffalo for tops in MAC-East.  Toledo has a loss to Ball St., but still controls their destiny with this game later hosting Buffalo and NIU.  BG’s defense versus Toledo’s offense.  (I’m a Terrance Owens fan.)  From HustleBelt’s top 68 players:  Toledo has Fluellen, Reedy, Kerin, Owens, Detmer, Mancz, Voss, Penza (kicker!), Russell; BG has Martin, Gates, Flewellyn, Bayer, Schilz, Truss, Ouellet.  All should play.  Here’s covers’ matchup page.  No major injuries are listed but note that Toledo’s David Fluellen got hurt in the Navy game and is questionable.

So this really does look like the game of the week from here and to top it off, I happen to think Forward Falcons is a top ten fight song.

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Bookkeeping.

  • Nice to see two Lobsterfests last week from Art Brosef and Chuckie Crater.  There is some stirring in the middle of the pack but the top four aren’t stumbling; will be hard to catch like that.
  • Old Comments.  In moving from the old ‘wordress.com’ to the new ‘wordpress.org’ site, I am now able to use the familiar DISQUS comment engine.  This offers me a facility to import my old comments into new Disqus.  I have kicked off this migration and received notice back that it could take a day or so.  So we may yet have all your old comments here in the new site.  However, in case we don’t, I’m not deleting or changing anything at the old site so it should always be accessible if we need it.
  • Editing comments.  You can edit your comment for ten or fifteen minutes and then it locks.  Let me know if you have any probs with that.  I’m generally pro edit your comments whenever, forever; but time-bombing made sense for Cheddar.
  • THE FORUM.  I am sure we will appreciate the improved comment section here at the new site.  But we also  now have the capability to do a forum.  I’ve never been a ‘forum guy’ but it seems like the discussion/dialogue could be better once we get the hang of it.  I think there’s some live chat features I can enable as well.  So do me a favor and check it out, post a dummy essay there, reply to someone.  I’m curious to see what it looks like.  (This here remains the official thread.)

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Skanky Fish with @ClevTA

@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

@ClevTA’s Skanky Fish Picks.

18-10-2 ATS YTD;
1-3 last week UCONN (lose); CMU (lose); Jets (win); Titans (lose)

First <.500 week of the season and that was only bc that dirty Jordan Lynch decided to tear apart CMU on a meaningless last minute drive for an ugly backdoor cover by N Ill.  It happens.

CFB
1. South Carolina +2.5 v Mizzou (69% on Mizzou, opened -3) Pick: SC
2. Akron +10 v Ball St (72% on Ball St, opened -11.5) Pick: Akron
3. Kent St +1 v Buffalo (65% on Buffalo, opened -2) Pick: Kent St
4. Hawaii +4 v CSU (62% on CSU, opened -5) Pick: Hawaii

NFL
1. Arizona -3 v ATL (63% on ATL, opened PK) Pick: Arizona

 

..

Okie doke, drop your comments in your new super cool comment section, remember to thank Brian Spaeth for his help hosting and setting this up, let me know if you encounter anything strange here at the new home, and let’s kill it this week.

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And I know none of you are anywhere near Stratham, NH this Friday but this is still a cool little event…

This is the Night to Adopt! from New Hampshire SPCA on Vimeo.

  • bupalos

    I’ll pick up STL and the 10.5 points tonight. The reason the Seahawks are not as good a road team isn’t the crowd, it’s the refs. Those big corners do lots and lots of things that require…positive interpretation. A little home cooking from the refs will do wonders here. Just drove through STL too on the way back from KC. You can smell the winning atmosphere.

  • I sent my picks via twitter to Kanick. I will post them here for posterity and present my essay for MNF.

    All Play- BG (crap)
    Atlanta +3 (crap)
    Dallas +3 (Yay!)
    Cincy -6.5 (Yay!)
    Oakland +2.5 (Yay!)

    Essay-
    Seattle -10.5

    SO my first thought was to take the Rams and the points at home. Seattle is a much better home team for certain, but then I realized Seattle will be working on as much rest as you can possibly get without a bye week, having played on Thursday night last week. I also remember St. Louis playing Seattle very tough last season. (Indeed, the two split the series, with each winning on their home field.) But the Rams will be playing without Bradford, and with (as Bernie Kosar pointed out) an embarrassingly bad group of wide receivers with a back-up quarterback throwing to them.

    Motivation shouldn’t be a problem for the Seahawks either, as they need to stay ahead of the 49ers who have already won this week. Division games are tough, but I think Seattle takes care of business in this one. Give the points.

  • bupalos

    Just updating over here trying to get Ari and Minn… I’m in kc with the screwed up time zone and horrible cell.

  • zarathustra

    Bengals -6.5 over Jets***
    Nice win for the Jets last week. But just like their win over the depleted Falcons a few weeks ago was a bit misleading, so was this one. Brady is playing hurt and the Jets were able to run on a patriots d missing their two best guys in the front seven. There was also a bullshit penalty but that is neither here nor there. The Jets won’t be able to run on the bengals like they did the pats so it will be up to geno…on the road. Last time I essayed against the jets(steelers game) I predicted three geno turnovers and he only provided two. I say this week he gets it done. Three plus turnovers for geno and the bengals win easily.

  • bupalos

    If possible cmfb for 3 points no essay. Its 1200 in kc, so that counts yes?

  • oxr

    All-Play Toledo (W)

    It’s a nice day here, so go road dogs and teams whose opponents just tried to sign Brett Favre:

    Bills +11 over Saints
    Cowboys +3 over Lions
    Jets +6.5 over Bengals
    Seahawks -10.5 over Rams

    Essay: Packers -9.5 over Vikings: Going against terrible QB situations has been an iffy strategy for me this year, but the Minnesota defense has been generally shocking as well, so I hope Green Bay should be able to score enough to cover. Packers are injured all over the place, of course, but they have a decent track record of random fifth-string receivers stepping up. I’d feel better about this pick if it was Freeman starting, but I still think this is the beginning of the middle of the end for Ponder, and if he’s playing from behind and having to sling it around disaster generally ensues – I am counting on a defensive TD to help me out here as well. Peterson is the wild card as usual, but this is a big mismatch overall and I wish I had Eddie Lacy in fantasy.

  • For CLEinMPLS

    Pitts -2.5
    Redskins +12
    Seahawks -10.5
    Patriots -6.5 (essay)
    Patriots coming off a loss go back home to face a Dolphins team that isn’t very good in my opinion. Tannehill was absolutely awful last week against Buffalo, and now with the pressure mounting, I don’t think he responds well. I expect a workmanlike effort out of the Patriots and Brady will probably have a nice fantasy week for those that have been bitching about him. Only chance for Miami here is if their dline goes off and gets heavy pressure. Bottom line is that since this was lower than 7, it was a must play for me.

    Brad (CLEinMPLS)

  • CLEVTA

    Whoa ATL picks 15-5 over Zona. Ok then

  • bobby_slick

    Let’s see if we can hit an essay this week…

    Toledo (W)
    OSU (W)
    Stanford (W)

    Vikings +9.5
    Raiders +2
    Falcons +2.5 ***

    I know I know, the public loves the Falcons blah blah blah. Atlanta has Matt Ryan, Cards have CARSON PALMER…you have got to be getting me. Carson Palmer led better Cincinnati teams in his prime to highly mediocre 8-8 records. Now you’re telling me he can beat a way more talented Falcons team w/ a banged up Larry Fitzgerald? Not happening. am taking a better team, and I am getting points. Falcons on the road by a TD

  • FOR RICKWFNY

    Dallas, Cincy, Oakland and Atlanta please. I will essay the Mon night game later.

  • trashycamaro

    It’s an all underdog day. Let the weeping commence.

    All play: Toledo +3.5 (WIN)

    Essay: Jets +6.5 at Bengals – It is time to forget the butt fumble. The Rex Ryan Jets calling card has always been their defense, and absent ridiculous distraction, they win with it. Or at least keep the score close. The Bungles are not a team that is blowing opponents out of the water. This line is way too high. I think you are getting about 3 points of free value from the butt fumble here. Take it while it is there. The Jets are fourth in Defensive DVOA, first against the run and twelfth. The Bungles are no slouches either, seventh overal, tenth against the run and eighth aginst the pass. The Jets are a lowly thirtieth on offense (behind the Browns!!) and Cincy comes in at fifteenth. The hidden value here comes in a number seven ranking from the NYJ special teams (right behind the Browns!!) with the Bengals coming in at 12. Finally, the Jets are running 5-2 against the spread for the year, 2-1 on the road. The Bengals are 4-2-1, with a sparkling 3-0 at home. Still, take thepoints here. There are too many of them.

    Dolphins +6.5 @ Pats – Too many points. Brady is not playing well and the answer is NOT Cameron Wake.

    Bills +11 @ Saints – Too many points against a surprisingly good pass rush. Who let Thad be decent?

    Browns +8 @ Chiefs – Still too many points. KC does not score enough to justify a line this high: 5-2 against the spread but 1-6 on the over/under.

    Falcons +3 over @ Cards – The Falcons may not be threat in the playoff this year, but no way they are even with the Cards.

  • For Pateslvrblk:

    Chiefs-8 over Browns
    Seahawks -10.5 over Rams
    Vikings+9.5 over Packers
    *** Falcons+3 over Cardinals
    The Falcons are an improving team with the win last week and the return of Jackson this week it’s a huge boost to the ground game. I’m not a fan of Carson Palmer and he has been inconsistent with eight touchdown passes and 13 interceptions this year. The offensive line hasn’t helped much, allowing 20 sacks. Larry Fitzgerald has been bothered by a sore hamstring since the second week of the season. He said he’s “one of the thousand guys around the NFL that’s dealing with injury and playing through it every week, this is our job, you’ve got to push through things.” Palmer needs him and ask Fitzgerald how he feels, and he says “Good enough to go.” Not “Great” not “Good as ever.” Just “Good enough to go.” Although the Falcons didn’t cover for me last year against the Cardinals, this year with the spread they only have to win!

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    BGSU (l)
    Carolina (w)
    Clemson (l)
    Vikings +9.5
    Pats -6.5
    Essay saints -11 vs buffalo
    The saints are a different team at home everyone knows this. The x fActor here is this saints defense under Rob Ryan is going to force a lot of mistakes from whoever starts in place of EJ Manuel (Thad Lewis) combine the pressure of Ryan’s defense with deafening crowd noise…interception city population Thad. Oh and New Orleans offense is pretty good and as cle fans know all to well good a a like brees Can easily over come a good defense at home with solid weapons like jimmy G and a host of solid wr. New Orleans by atleast 14.

  • zarathustra

    I would like to add Arizona -14 over Colorado for one point please

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    Fragmented Picks, Part II:

    All-Play: Bowling Green -3.5 over Toledo (not looking good – do I get bonus dork points for watching the game through my Xbox360 ESPN app?)
    Wake Forest +23.5 over Miami

    Oregon -22 over UCLA
    Lions +3 over Cowboys
    Pats -6.5 over Dolphins
    Essay: Falcons +3 over Cardinals

    This week will test my ability to take a tidbit of information I heard on ESPN radio and apply it to my Cheddar Bay picks. Supposedly teams that play Seattle have a tough time recovering from the beating they take and lose 72% of the time week after they play Seattle. Last week’s tomato can for the Seahawks was the Cards. So, if this theory is true, it’s a no-brainer to pick against whoever the Seahawks played the previous week. Football picking is basically a coin toss, only it’s fun to actually think that you hold information that the rest of the public doesn’t, and can use that information to acquire life-altering wealth.

  • Katie O.

    “You’re doing great, baby, you’re beating people that are actually playing” -Nick, the no-longer so quiet storm on the bay.

    All Play: BGSU -3.5 vs. Toledo

    Mizzou -2.5 vs. South Carolina

    Lions -3 vs. Cowboys

    Bills +11 vs. Saints

    Vikings +9.5 vs. Packers

    Essay: Steelers -2.5 vs. Raiders

    Ever wonder, “what’s wrong with the Patriots this year?” I have the answer. This preseason, the Patriots cut punter Zoltan Mesko. Despite growing up in the greater Cleveland area (after his family escaped with him from communist Romania) he accepted a position on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This felt really familiar.

    Zoltan was a year my senior and we went to the same 800 person high school. He made being a cheerleader for a so-so high school football team fun. Each kickoff the squad would hold hands high in the air, chanting along with the crowd, “Zooooooltan, Zooooooltan” until the ball would fly so high in the air that it got a little embarrassing waiting for it to come back down. Despite his original dreams of playing real football, he was recruited and had a calling for American football.

    This is not the first time he’s played for a team I didn’t want to cheer for. He had scholarship offers from just about every D1 college I knew of at the time and Zoltan chose Michigan. I remember giving him a hard time about it and to that he said, “I really liked their business program, and it’s not like I’ll be playing football forever.” I’d love to hear what he has to say about that now! Ever charismatic, Zoltan brightened up every meeting, class, and party he was at.

    I haven’t seen or talked to him since my high school graduation party – he was only a year into college and had yet to become a Michigan legend. He was just as lanky and nerdy as I remembered him. He went on to become the first person from special teams to be a Wolverine captain. The list of awards he’s received could be another essay entirely; did I mention he has his own charity to benefit the social, emotional, economic and educational well-being of children? He’s earned his model girlfriend.

    No matter which opposing team he plays for it will never feel wrong to cheer for him…since if he’s punting, it means no points, no foul.

    I leave you with the card Zoltan received this past week from his kicker, Shaun Suisham – illustrating how awkwardly amazing Zoltan still is:

    https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/q74/s720x720/1382336_440948299349162_646762367_n.jpg

  • HitTheHorns

    HitTheHorns:

    TCU -2.5

  • bupalos

    Toledo for me. Sorry to be late… carrying the fire in kc this wknd at some kind of reservation for orthopods. Let’s say Hawaii too.

  • For Glitters:

    Seahawks -10.5 @ rams. 140 character essay: no Sam Bradford. Disaster. Klemens bad news, esp in light of Favre recruitment. Seattle D smells blood in water and tees off. Racks up my fantasy score. Terrible essay. I’m sorry. Discus is a problem.

    Arizona -14 @ Colorado.
    UCLA +22 @ Oregon.
    Browns +8 @ Chiefs.
    Eagles -5.5 vs giants.
    Saints -11 vs bills.
    BGSU

  • oxr

    Having some Disqus issues: tried to cast a vote for Toledo via Twitter earlier, but I’ll try to post it again here just in case. So: Toledo +3.5 over BG.

  • For BERGER:

    For the life of me, I can’t get logged into the new site. It won’t let me register to Disqus and it isn’t letting me log in with my twitter account. I’ll try and get this figured out next week but here are my picks.

    BGSU – 3.5 vs Toledo
    Northwestern +3.5 vs Iowa
    UCLA +22 vs Oregon
    Penn St + 14.5 vs OSU
    Dolphins +6.5 vs Patriots
    Atlanta +3 vs Cardinals (Essay)

    Atlanta hasn’t played particularly well this season and the loss of Julio Jones hurts. I’m not sure whether Roddy White returns this week either, but I still have a hunch Matt Ryan will step up this week. The WR/RB playmakers only get you so far but the QB position in this game is heavily weighted toward Atlanta and Matt Ryan over Carson Palmer. I’ll take the QB matchup in this one.

  • For CheddarClay:

    BG (-3.5)
    Houston (+7) / Rutgers
    BC (+7) / UNC
    Tulane (+3) / Tulsa
    Illinois (+11.5) / MSU
    sorry, having technical issues

  • Jonathan MacDonald

    My apologies, it’s Fragmented Picks week for me. I spent the morning reviewing game film for kindergarten soccer that begins in 45 minutes and now I’m pressed for time.

    All-Play: Bowling Green -3.5 over Toledo
    Wake Forest +23.5 over Miami

    Rest to follow in Part 2.

  • Toledo (+3.5) at Bowling Green. I’ve been to both campuses and, while they are not as bad as Muncie, Ind., neither are the gem of the Mid-American Conference.

    New Orleans (-11) vs. Buffalo. Thad Lewis on the road in a dome? No thank you.

    Pittsburgh (-2.5) @ Oakland.

    Washington (+12) @ Denver. Since arriving in Denver, Peyton Manning has won 19 games – only three of which have come against winning teams. Washington is not a winning team, but they should be able to score enough points to keep the Broncos from covering.

    Atlanta (+3) @ Arizona. The first six teams that played Seattle this season all lost their next game. The Cardinals played Seattle last week.

    Essay: Kansas City (-8) vs. Cleveland

    The Browns are a franchise that has seen more than its share of talented quarterback-running back duos. Consider that over the years, the Browns have had:

    Otto Graham handing off to Marion Motley
    Frank Ryan handing off to Jim Brown
    Bill Nelsen handing off to Leroy Kelly,
    Brian Sipe handing off to Greg Pruitt, and
    Bernie Kosar handing off to Kevin Mack.

    To that list the team now brings us Jason Campbell handing the ball off to Fozzy Whittaker.

    Can you feel the excitement?

    The Chiefs have given up a league-low 81 points behind a defense that is tough against the pass – they lead the league in sacks with 35, and are third in both yards allowed at 194.7 per game and yards per attempt at 6.4.

    The Browns counter with a quarterback that, on his best day, is extremely average, and a running attack who’s leading rusher has gained fewer yards than Alex Smith, which wouldn’t be a big real if Smith wasn’t Kansas City’s quarterback.

    Browns football baby! What else you gonna’ do on Sunday afternoon?

  • On behalf of RickWFNY:
    I will take BG for the all play. Thanks.

  • On behalf of DQuatts:

    South Florida
    Akron
    Bowling Green
    Ohio State $$

    This is THE statement game of the year for Ohio State. Yes, everyone will be keeping their eyes on the OSU/MICH game at the end of the year, but this game here determines whether an undefeated Ohio State team gets to the National Championship game over a one-loss SEC, etc. school. With a blowout tonight by the buckeyes, and I mean by like 35, they will be considered a front runner (again) to get to the big dance. A tight game with the Nitttttty Lions and everyone will be talking about the ‘weak’ Big10 still. I don’t think a true Freshman on the Road on the horseshoe has a chance against Urban and crew. Go Buckeyes!! Back tomorrow with (2) NFL picks.

    DQuatts

  • mrickman

    toledo +3.5
    ball state -10
    louisville -19
    utah +6.5
    steelers -2.5

    clemson -14

    the same thing that got to maryland last year is getting to the terps now and it seems to be piling on in a bad way. while it looked as though randy edsall had finally done his job and pulled it all together, maryland was still just a few injuries away from collapsing completely. there isn’t quite enough talent across the board on the team to make up for the lack of skill players. so when cj brown went out early against florida state the team folded. when diggs and long got hurt against wake forest (not a great team mind you) the terrapins pretty much gave up. with long and diggs out for the year and clemson angry over the embarrassment it suffered against fsu last week, this one could get rough.

  • Rich Swerbinsky

    Toledo Rockets +3.5
    Tulane Green Wave +3
    Florida Atlantic Owls +23.5
    Oregon State Beavers +4
    Cincinnati Bengals -6.5
    ***Oakland Raiders +2.5

    The Inbred’s defense is banged up, and I believe they are more the team that lost their first four games than the one that has held down the offensively challenged Jets and Ravens these last two weeks to fool oddsmakers into making them a road favorite. Raiders win these games every year – home wins over favored teams after they get out to a poor start. 24-16 Raiders.

  • Matt Borcas

    Toledo +3.5 over BGSU
    Mizzou -2.5 over SC
    Penn State +14.5 over OSU

    • Matt Borcas

      packers -9.5 over vikings

    • Matt Borcas

      Seahawks -10.5 over Rams

      I can’t fathom a scenario in which I’d put money on Kellen Clemens, he of the 19.2 career QBR and 7:13 lifetime touchdown-interception ratio. This line would seriously have to clear 20 points before I’d even consider taking the Rams, because Clemens against Seattle’s secondary is roughly the most one-sided matchup in the history of time. And the only thing worse than St. Louis’s pass offense (pre-Bradford injury, of course) might be their pass defense, which surrendered 327 yards to CARSON PALMER. (Palmer has been held under 300 yards in every other week.) If this doesn’t have the makings of a blowout, i don’t know what does.

  • zarathustra

    Bowling Green -3.5 over Toledo (all-play)
    Say what you will about the string of Browns quarterbacks since the return, NONE have exuded charisma like good ole Chuck Frye. So when I read here that he likes toledo I was mesmerized by his siren song and was just about ready to follow him, but the falcons are home off a bye playing for revenge. I’ll lay the points.

    Mizzou -2.5 over South Carolina
    This spot screams cocks [offensive,tasteless, and unfunny joke REDACTED.]. Off a loss against an overrated team with a freshman qb who is getting love after beating two banged up name programs. But, maybe the stars are just aligned for the Tigers. After getting lucky the last two weeks by playing teams riddled with injuries in key spots, the cocks are coming to town without their starting qb. Connor Shaw is no world beater, but his absence is enough for me to ride with the public on the Tigers.

    Buffalo -1 over Kent St
    Vanderbilt +18.5 over Texas A&M

    Essay will be tomorrow.

  • HitTheHorns

    HitTheHorns:

    Toledo +3.5

    Eagles -5.5

    Raiders +2.5

    South Carolina +2.5

    Missouri ranks number five in the initial BCS rankings. They just blew out a really good Florida team. South Carolina was just upset by Tennessee and their starting QB is out. So why isn’t the “fifth best team in the country” not favored by more
    than 2.5 points? Let’s buy low and sell high and take the points.

    Oklahoma -6.5 (ESSAY)

    It has taken eightweeks, but Texas Tech will finally play a team with some talent. The initialBCS standings came out last week, and Texas Tech jumped out as the most overrated in the bunch. Besides being undefeated, there is really no reason for them to be ranked that high. Now, they take their freshman quarterback on the
    road to Norman. If they were deserving of a top ten ranking, why would they be
    nearly a touchdown underdog to a team ranked below them?

    One more pick to follow.

  • architectartvandelay

    Baylor -34.5 @ Kansas – Lets see 70 – 34.5 = 35.5. Jayhawks might get to 20 so it wont be enough.

    Bama -27.5 vs Tenn

    Oregon -22 vs UCLA

    Seahawks -10.5 @ Rams – Teams following a Thursday night game are covering at a high clip this season.

    AP: BG -3.5 vs Toledo – Guy at the bar before the Jackets game had a Falcons hat on so I am taking that as a sign.

    Essay: OSU -14.5 vs PSU

    Normally I stay away from the Buckeyes but there are a couple of reasons I like them in this spot. First, it is a night game in Columbus on national TV and the Buckeyes need style points. Second, PSU is coming off a bye week and teams have struggled off bye weeks this year. Third, PSU is getting some love because of their win over UM. News flash UM is not very good.

    When the Buckeyes have the ball it will be too much Braxton & Hyde for PSU to handle. The question as it has been all season is the Buckeye defense. Roby vs Allen will be a matchup to watch all game. I look for Roby to play his best game all season after last weeks ejection (still cant believe that one). Hackenberg should have some success for PSU but ultimately the OSU D will be able to pressure him into mistakes because PSU will be one dimensional.

  • ULL -2.5 @ArkySt (win)

    ***@Bama -27.5 Tenn

    I think I had a snoot full last week when I tweeted this.

    moving forward 'don't overthink it' is an acceptable #cheddarbay essay when you can get bama at home for less than 4 TDs.— jim kanicki (@jimkanicki:disqus ) October 20, 2013

    While that rule has NOT been sanctioned by the Council of Elders, it’s point is valid:
    Dont overthink it.

    Hey lookit, nice win by Tennessee over your typically undisciplined Spurrier team at home. Bama/Saban/Tuscaloosa are none of those things.

    All I can tell you all is that betting Bama is the most enjoyable experience. Completely stress-free. A treat. There’s no worry about back-door covers: Saban’s third stringers are better than everyone else’s starters and those starters are beaten to a pulp by the fourth quarter. No, if you’re going to cover against Bama you’re doing so by the grace of Saban (ColoSt HC was Saban assistant; The Saban determined the 59 point spread vs GaSt to be unseemly.). I really didn’t expect to see a spread under 28 points at home for Bama again this year but here it is and I won’t not grab it.

    @FSU -31.5 NCST

    While I still like the ‘bet against the worst team’ strategy play, we’re now into the ‘BCS Style Points’ phase of the season and that rule applies here. FSU hasn’t scored less than 62 in Tallahassee (vs D1 teams), only one team has scored 14 or more. Since NCST is the team who upset FSU last year when FSU was ranked #3, there’s no chance they will sneak up on the Noles. On the contrary, it’s pay back time. Add in the ‘style points’ component of the BCS chase and this final could be 70- 14. Trap game? Let down game? Lol.. no way. This is the alt essay game.

    Toledo +3.5 @BGSU

    That half point looks huge.

    GSU +11.5 @ULM

    I intend to enjoy the shit out of this improving Panthers (they’re the Panthers, note to self, ‘Panthers’) team as long as I can. ULM is way way off this year even before losing their QB. This is GSU’s best shot at getting a win this year and I will be playing their moneyline.

    @Raiders +2.5 Steelers

    Up and coming team versus team in decline.

    Also riding: GaTech, Houston, UMass, UBuff, NIU, UTSA, UNT, Mizzou, Auburn, PSU, ORST, Browns, Bills, Jets, Falcons.

    • With regret, I need to drop GSU from my picks. Turns out Kolton Browning is likely coming back tonite for ULM… that’s rather huge. (The line is now ULM -16 is still moving higher.) So I will replace GaState with:
      GaTech -10 @UVA.
      The symmetry of staying in Georgia will have to override my irrational fear/loathing of playing ACC games.

    • With regret, I need to drop GSU from my picks. Turns out Kolton Browning is likely coming back tonite for ULM… that’s rather huge. (The line is now ULM -16 is still moving higher.) So I will replace GaState with:
      GaTech -10 @UVA.
      The symmetry of staying in Georgia will have to override my irrational fear/loathing of playing ACC games.

    • “[B]etting Bama is the most enjoyable experience. Completely stress-free. A treat.”

      They were 7-7 ATS last year with a lock wire-to-wire national title team. This year they’re 4-3 ATS. To each his own re: treats and stress I guess but u no get in Cheddar playoffs with those numbers.

  • Nick

    TCU -2.5 vs Texas
    AP: Toledo +3.5 vs BGSU
    Akron +10 vs Ball St
    Minny +10 vs Nebraska
    PSU +14.5 vs OSU
    EP: Browns +8 vs Chiefs

    With Weeden benched, won’t the rest of the team will play a little
    better knowing they are no longer being led by someone who’d rather be
    golfing? I think the Browns Defense plays its best game of the year; they have
    really taken some steps back in the last few weeks and they are better than
    that. Craig Robertson is getting exposed; Mingo should be in coverage more;
    they are no longer pressuring the QB, can’t get off 3rd down. But the thing is KC doesn’t score a lot of points (have not scored over 30 pts all year) and they are due for a loss. Maybe the Browns will take care of the ball, actually try to win some field possession battles, let their defense settle in, and turn this into a slugfest.

    This pick is like throwing a deep bomb into the end zone before halftime
    when you really should just be taking a knee. Am I Desperate? No… Stupid? YES.

    • I happen to love the Browns here. When you least expect something from them…

  • dwhalen

    Trying to stay out of the basement….

    TOLEDO +3.5 @ BG. Fellow Willoughby South Rebel Kareem Hunt had his coming out party last week against Navy. Oh yeah, he’s a freshman.

    BUFFALO -1 @ KENT ST. Bulls should win. And for that to happen, it has to be by one. At least.

    BAYLOR -34.5 @ KANSAS. Baylor’s avg margin of victory this season is 48 points.

    SEAHAWKS -10.5 @ RAMS. Someone please tell me how the Rams score any points in this game.

    REDSKINS +12 @ BRONCOS. The Broncos are struggling to put teams away of late, and the Skins have some momentum coming off a big win.

    $$$ RAIDERS +2.5 vs. STEELERS $$$

    You’d think that the Raiders, having not much to lose, would run Terrelle Pryor more. For two reasons: 1. He can’t REALLY throw the football, so anytime it goes into the air, it’s a coin flip. 2. He’s averaging 6.5 yards per carry so far this season. But he’s got no rushing TD’s, telling me that when they get into the red zone, (which isn’t often, to be fair) they need to give him the rock. He’s a big man. Nearly 6’5″ and close to 240 lbs, why not throw Marcel Reece out there and run a QB lead. Let the man run. I’ve never been fond of him as a passer, but there’s no doubt that he’s dangerous when he escapes the pocket.

    The Steelers can’t score, the Raiders can’t score, and this one, while important to my points this week, isn’t something I’m going to consider watching.

  • Bevilacqua

    Bevilacqua

    ALL PLAY: Toledo (+3.5) over Bowling Green
    I’m not going to pretend to know anything about these MAC teams. Or based on my picks this season, football in general.

    UCF (-21.5) over UCONN
    UConn is so bad. I’m picking against Randy Etsel’s current and former team this week.

    Clemson (-14) over Maryland
    Remember when Maryland was ranked this year? Neither do I.

    South Carolina (+2.5) over Mizzou
    I’m not buying all the Mizzou hype yet.

    Baylor (-34.5) over Kansas
    Poor Charlie Weis. This Kansas team is terrible.

    ESSAY: Steelers (-2.5) over Raiders

    [Note: this essay has absolutely nothing to say at all about the actual
    game between the Steelers and Raiders.]

    This week is the turning point. I have a feeling I’ll be telling my grandkids about the time when the Browns were ahead of the Steelers heading into Week 8. After Oakland, the Steelers have a tough Patriots game, followed by winnable games with the Bills and Lions. So I see them sitting at 5-5 heading into the Week 12 showdown against the Brownies. And let’s face it: the three-game winning streak was nice, but the Browns will be 3-7 (I’ll give them a 10% chance of being 4-6) for that game, and the trend will continue from there. Random story: I have two friends that have had a standing wager—$20 on whether or not the Steelers sweep Cleveland. Since their 1999 return, the Browns position has won 5 times (1999, 2000, 2003, 2009, & 2012). This year, the Steelers fan was able to parlay all the negativity about the Steelers into revising the bet: now it’s $20 each game on the winner. That Browns position is looking worse and worse by the minute.

  • munasrevenge

    It was very difficult for me this week but I forced myself to stay away from the damn UConn game (I think I’m 0-4 picking games involving UConn this season). Those points look real tempting though…. Browns getting over a TD with a new QB against a plodding offense is a tempting pick too; if they had any sort of running game I’d probably take a swing on them.

    -UL Monroe (-11.5) vs Georgia State (hate laying so many points with a bad team, but Georgia state is an abysmal team)
    -North Texas (-10.5) @ Southern Miss (Dare I say this line could be another 5-7 points higher?)
    -Iowa (-3.5) vs Northwestern (NW will have a hard time throwing against a good Iowa pass defense and a strong gusty wind)
    -49ers (-16) vs Jaguars (Even in a coasting manner the Niners should crush the Jags)

    –BGSU (-3.5) vs Toledo (pains me to say, but I think the Falcons have a more solid team this year)

    —Essay: Clemson (-14) @ Maryland (non-essay essay this weekend, in a rush. But Clemson will be looking to avenge their embarrassing loss, and Maryland is beat UP, and still a bit overvalued from their hot start against mostly meh competition.)

  • Concierge

    BGSU -3.5
    Oklahoma -6.5
    Miami OH +25
    Rice -17.5
    Steelers -2.5 essay

    Pittsburgh is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games, 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 road games, and 1-5 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread just one time in the last five meetings of these two. With that being said I still think the Steelers win this game on the road. They will claw their way back into this division. I’m sorry as much as I love T.P I just can’t take him over Big Ben just yet.

  • TheKardiacKid

    TheKardiacKid:
    Buffalo -1 @Kent St
    Stanford -4 @Oregon St
    49ers -16 @ Jacksonville
    AP: @BG -3.5 vs Toledo
    Essay: @Tulane +3 vs Tulsa
    Tulane is the 2nd ranked team in the nation in turnovers gained. They have the reigning Lou Groza Award winner. (Probably should never make an argument to pick a team based on their kicker…..unless that kicker is the legendary Phil Dawson) Oh and they have a Montana playing QB. I rarely pick against a Montana playing QB unless it’s Nate Montana.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    All play: BGSU -3.5
    Carolina -5.5 (winner)
    Clemson -14 big overreaction to a bad game lady week. I think the fumble on the first play on offense sent this team in to a panic and suddenly they thought oh shit we are gonna choke and boom game over. Clemson isn’t that bad and Maryland is playing its 3rd stringers because apparently everyone is injured. Boyd has to come out and play a big game to start the rebuilding of his draft status. Clemson by 3 td’s.
    Back with more later

    • I am ruling that this is NOT your essay unless you say different, kk?

  • pateslvrblk

    Toledo+3.5 over Bowling Green

  • USFCollin

    All play: Bowling Green -3.5 over Toledo. What are these teams? Where do they football? Can you get college there? I have no idea what I’m doing here.

    Oregon State +4 over Stanford. When this line opened at 5.5, I texted Chuckycrater basically saying we should sell everything we have, fly to Vegas, and double our net worth. But that’s a big 1.5 that’s gone in the other direction, so now I’ll just take 1 Cheddar Point instead of independent wealth.

    Nevada -6 over UNLV. UNLV is probably throwing games and taking bookie money they are so bad.

    Wake Forest +23.5 over Miami. Classic Miami doesn’t show up game.

    Dallas +3 over Detroit. If this was 2.5 I’d stay away, but I’ll take my push here. Y U MAKE ME NFL CHEDDERRRR??

    Essay: Iowa -3.5 over Northwestern. Taking my essay bye here just to say HAHAHAHA SUCK IT SMART KIDS YOU’RE GOING DOWN.

  • thatsfine

    Toledo +3.5 / BGSU – I’ll take the points, feels like a FG will decide this either way
    it goes.

    SDSU +8 / Fresno St (essay)
    I scored Cheddar points
    essaying against Fresno State last week, and will attempt to do so again
    this week. I think the Bulldogs are a tad overrated –
    they have squeaked by Rutgers, Hawaii, and Boise State, who all scored
    at will. Essentially, no challenges remain on their schedule and they
    have what appears to be smooth sailing to a possible BCS bid. This is a
    road game letdown spot, plain and simple. I’m intrigued by SDSU
    – who have looked better each week. Since their opening game disaster
    and subsequent beating at OSU (no shame there), they came together and
    almost pulled off the upset at home vs. Oregon State , then won 3
    straight games in conference. They’ve won 7 straight in MWC play dating
    to last year. I think they will be able to score at home and keep pace
    with Fresno before losing in the final moments but still covering the
    spread.

    BC +7 / UNC – BC stayed within 14 of FSU and 10 of
    Clemson. Besides their road trouncing at USC BC has been a respectable team.

    NC St +31.5 / FSU – Sandwiched between Clemson and Miami, I think FSU overlooks NCSt and only wins by 30.

    UNLV
    +6 / Nevada – Two inconsistent teams. UNLV in a bounce back game.

    Saints -11 / Bills – It’s in the dome. Saints off a bye week. That is enough.

  • p_forever

    nc state +32 fsu

    clemson -14 maryland***

    vandy +17.5 texax a&m

    stanford -4 oregon state

    bgsu -3.5 toledo

    saints -11 bills

    i’m rooting for the terps, for sure. but with their 2 best playmakers hurt, and with clemson thinking revenge after being crushed by fsu last weekend, this game is going to look like what would happen if a real deal tiger and terrapin “played.” it really comes down to that location location location thing again. it sucks for maryland to have to meet clemson after such an embarrassing loss (conversely, nc state is lucky to be meeting fsu right after such a big win – hence the nc state pick above. oh and it works in the nfl too – saints are getting the bills after a bye week and after stewing for 2 weeks about their loss to new england. sucks for buffalo, for sure.)

  • jdoepke

    I posted BYU at about 4:00 today, yet for some reason it’s not showing on the thread…what gives?

    • not sure what’s up on the thread but i saw and logged it, so you’re set for the contest purposes.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay Play: Arizona Cardinals: I have the Cardinals pegged as one of the underrated squads in the NFL. Sure, they have a geriatric statue at QB and can’t run the ball, but who am I to judge. Last time we saw the Cardinals was this past Thursday when they were getting done up at home by the Shithawks. Not the best effort, and on national TV none the less. I doubt that drummed up much interest. Throw that effort in with the newest “angle” being tossed about the airwaves that NO ONE WINS THE WEEK AFTER PLAYING THE ULTRA PHYSICAL SEAHAWKS BECAUSE ALL THEIR BONES ARE BROKEN and you’ve got a nice little public stampede on the Falcons. Nothing like fading a “trend” with an n=6. Cadinals for me.

    Others:
    Oklahoma Sooners
    South Carolina Gamecocks
    TCU Horned Frogs
    BYU Mormons
    All play: Toledo Rockets

  • Jeff Rich

    *Toledo (+3.5) at BOWLING GREEN*
    Just a hunch, but I think the West is better than the East, when it comes to #MACtion

    NC State (+31.5) at FLORIDA STATE
    People should be getting excited about the Noles, but like everything else in life, it’s gone too far. I don’t think Doeren wants to be humiliated by FSU twice in a calendar year.

    ***OREGON (-22) vs Ucla***
    D’Anthony Thomas is back, not that he needs to be the way that Marshall, Tyner, and Mariota run the ball. If you want to stack the box to stop the run, there’s enough TD passes for Josh Huff and Bralon Addison to share the video game numbers. UCLA is the walking wounded, and even though they probably deserve the respect of only getting 22, they probably need more to cover. Anthony Barr is fun to watch; everyone would know about him if he played in the SEC (because Los Angeles isn’t a popular enough place), but he can take over games when they aren’t playing the Ducks. The best candidate I have to knock of Oregon would be their in-state rivals, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

    Texas (+2.5) at TCU
    Texas isn’t as bad as everyone wants to make them out to be. The Horned Frogs aren’t nearly as good looking when they have to play a Big XII schedule. Mack Brown is going to finish strong, if the finish line is indeed not far away for him.

    BENGALS (-6.5) vs Jets
    If Cincinnati is for real, they can’t lose to Thad Lewis and Geno Smith in the same season. If the Jets are for real, hahahahahahahahahahaha, we need to re-think what we classify as being “for real”.

    Steelers (+2.5) at RAIDERS
    Mexico’s other team edges Mexico’s team. Picking with my head, though my heart says screw’em both.

  • CLEVTA

    1. Toledo +3.5 (all play) bc FlyHighCharlie says so. Also rooting for local boy Kareem Hunt to dominate.

    2. Arizona Cardinals -3

    3. Minnesota Vikings +9.5- ridiculous overreaction to Vikings loss w/ Freeman on MNF. I hate Ponder but he’s at least competent and knows the Vikings offense. Home dog divisional games are always solid bets, especially one with such a high line and AP. The weird thing is this line was 6.5 before MNF then immediately went up 3 points to 9.5 and hasn’t changed now that Ponder is the QB. Weird, if the line jumped so much bc Freeman was so awful why would the line stick if Ponder is now the QB? It’s because GB is such a big public play. Love me some Vikes here.

    4. Virginia +10: Ga Tech isn’t this good. The only thing Virginia does well is play defense, especially rush defense where they rank 60th nationally but you have to consider they have played extremely great rush offenses in Oregon and BYU. So schedule adjusted, their rush defense looks much better. If you take out the Oregon game where they allowed 350 yds on 40 carries, VA defense has only allowed a 3.2 ypc average on defense which would rank top 20 nationally.

    5. Rice -17.5 (Essay): UTEP is awful and have the worst ranked pass defense in CFB allowing an astonishing 10.3 yds/attempt. This while having opponents only average 20 attempts/gm, meaning teams are throwing all over UTEP but not throwing enough. If you look at their schedule, UTEP’s combined opponents are only averaging 6.6 yds/attempt on offense passing so UTEP pass defense is getting destroyed against very weak pass offense opponents. Rice should be able to cruise.

    6. South Carolina +2.5: Dylan Thompson is a better passer than Shaw. Not sure why the line overreacted the other way. Mizzou’s run is over and Matty Mauck will be introduced to mr. Clowney. Also a stanky pick. Line might be pick’em by game time.

  • Its Only Money

    @ BYU -7 Boise St
    @ Iowa -3.5 Northwestern
    @ Ohio -25 Miami
    @ Kansas St -10 West Virginia
    All Play @ BGSU -3.5 Toledo

    Essay @ New England – 6.5 Miami
    With Danny Amendola coming back Tom Brady will have a reliable WR to throw the ball to besides the Kent graduate. At least he will have some one for the start of the game, who knows how long Amendola will actually stay healthy enough to be on the field. I forgot about a healthy Gronk with another week of practice under his belt. An angry Patriots team will look to right the ship against a reeling Dolphins team. The Patriots are at home, where they seem much more comfortable and will be able to control things. The phins are on a downward sprial that will continue for at least another week.

  • jdoepke

    BYU -7 for me tonight. More to come later

    • jdoepke

      I need a strong bounce back week and I need an essay pick in the worst way. Here we go:
      Toledo + 3.5 (all play)
      Kansas St -10 (how is a 2-4 team laying 10 points?)
      Flordia Atlantic +23.5 (yup, I’m that guy)
      Vikings +9.5 (this has to be right, who in their right mind would pick this?)

      Essay Time:
      Man this is tough. I don’t have a good track record in essay picks (2-6 thus far). Thought real hard about Toledo but passed. Thought harder about Kansas St because the line is just baffling to me, passed on that too. And I landed on…..

      Virginia +10

      Not a whole lot of stats to support this other than GT doesn’t play well here (1-5 ATS last 6) and Virginia is due to not suck. Give me the Cavs to keep it within the number against that goofy offense that GT runs. GT 27 VA 20

  • rodofdisaster

    AP: Bowling Green

    Clemson -14 over Randy Edsall
    Stanford -4
    Texas A&M -17.5

    Seahawks -6.5 (Essay pick)
    49ers -16

    In last week’s episode of Cheddar Bay, I waxed poetic-er-droned on and on about how much I hated Pete Carroll. Quite honestly, I am probably taking moments off of my life due to blood pressure changes when the TV director cuts to him on the sideline.

    That said, Cheddar is about the money….and people will do a lot of nasty things for money.

    The clincher here for me is that Kellen Clemens is the starting QB and it’s the Rams. Kellen Clemens isn’t nearly the player Sam Bradford is and honestly, Sam Bradford would have had a tough time here. It’s a prime time game and I can’t think of a team that seems to get up for a prime time game more than Seattle. They simply have too much Beast on both sides of the ball.

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Bowling Green -3.5 over Toledo
    Oregon St +4 over Stanford
    Oklahoma -6.5 over Texas Tech
    Clemson -14 over Maryland ***
    Lions -3 over Cowboys
    Giants +5.5 over Eagles

    *** Clemson is good. Florida State is really good. Simple enough, right? That game
    was not nearly as lopsided as it looked. I’ve been on both sides of games where once things start snowballing you can’t stop it and even quit caring at some point. That’s what happened in that Clemson/FSU game. But Clemson is still on a whole other level than the Terps. Clemson has proven to put up big numbers over and over again even against good teams (exception Seminoles.) I don’t love taking a big road favorite but Clemson’s offense and Maryland’s pile of injuries seem to be lopsided. And I think last week’s bad loss to Clemson is keeping this line a little lower than it should be.

  • chuckycrater

    CHANGED PICK

    Sorry to do this to you but I’d like to replace Texas +2.5 with Nevada -6 vs. UNLV.

    Casey Pachall is going to be available for TCU, and my entire reason for taking Texas is that I didn’t know how TCU would score. Pachall is light years better than Boykin and the Frogs can definitely win with him in the game.

    • acto

      Chucky, I was more confident in my TCU over UT pick when I thought Boykin would be starting over Paw-Hall.
      Texas very frequently has problems with mobile QB’s
      I may change my essay.

      • chuckycrater

        True, but Boykin is so bad throwing the ball. He makes TCU one dimensional all by himself and I don’t think their running game is BYU-level good.

        Maybe they start working Pachall in like how K-State is using Daniel Sams and Jake Waters. That seems like the optimal strategy. But even if they just go right back to Pachall until he gets hurt or falls off the wagon again or whatever, it makes TCU a better offense.

  • CLEinMPLS

    BG -3.5 for the all play
    Ball State -10. This line seems very low to me, so I will take my chances.

  • cwonder23

    Panthers -5.5 @ Bucs (win)
    Jags +16 vs 49ers
    Air Force +20 vs Notre Dame
    Tulane +3 vs Tulsa
    All Play: BGSU -3.5 vs Toledo
    Essay: Steelers -2.5 @ Raiders

    Two straight wins for the Steelers and a division that is still somewhat in reach. Oakland is still trying to find its identity in a division that is all but settled. The Steelers should be able to rattle Pryor and create some turnovers. Big Ben is an experienced QB with A knack for beating lesser opponents. Although, I dont think either team is that good, i think the Steelers handle Oakland and come out with a FG win.

  • ChuckKoz

    UCLA +22 (at Oregon)
    Ohio State -14.5 (vs Penn St)
    Oregon State +4 (vs Stanford)
    Giants +5.5 (at Eagles)
    AP: BGSU -3.5 (vs Toledo)
    Essay: Seahawks -10.5 (at Rams)

    This feels like a very generic pick, but really makes sense. I mean seriously, the Rams tried to sign 45-year-old guy instead of playing Clemens. A 45-year-old guy that was really bad when he played three years ago. Therefore, it’s hard to think the Rams are not going to play terrible. Moreover, the Seahawks know not to take the Rams lightly because they did lose once to them last year. So I like the Seahawks, who seem due for a blowout win (its been a few weeks) on the big Monday night stage to be focused and went by two touchdowns at least.

  • Capitalgg

    Week 9:

    All-play: Bowling Green -3.5 v. Toledo: I like UT. My sister is an alum. Got way too drunk in a loge there for a BG-UT game. Several drunk nights on or around that campus. All that said, UT is not nearly as good as BG, so the Falcons should roll. Rivalry be damned.
    1. win Panthers -5.5 @ Buccaneers
    2. Nebraska -10 @ Minnesota: Explosive offense + bye week. If TMagic were probably instead of questionable, I think this like would be closer to 17. But the big secret is the backup ain’t bad.
    3. Packers -9.5 @ Vikings: Hate to give this many points in a divisional game, but Christian Ponder at home. This one has UGLY written all over it.
    4. Ball St. -10 @ Akron: MACtion POTW. Should be at least a 14 point spread, so there’s value here.

    Wow! Florida State kicked the ever-loving hell out of Clemson last week didn’t they? Woo-boy! Clearly Clemson is just a lousy team. Blah, blah, blah.

    Some times teams have bad nights playing big games. It happens. Clemson is still pretty good.

    Maryland, well they lost last week as well. To Wake Forest. By 24! 24!

    They barely edged Virginia.

    Florida St. hung 63 on them. Oh and their who flipping team is out injured. No really, like everyone.

    Dabo and Tahj need a bounce-back game. There aren’t enough athletes left on the Maryland sideline to make a difference in this one. I’ll surely take Clemson -14. I don’t think I’d think twice about Clemson -21.

    Other plays:
    Buffalo -1 @ Kent St.
    Temple +13 @ SMU
    Miami -23.5 v. Wake Forest
    Georgia Tech -10 @ Virginia
    UMass -3 v. W. Michigan
    No. Illinois -29.5 v. E. Michigan
    Alabama -27.5 v. Tennessee
    Utah +6.5 @ USC
    UTSA -7 v. UAB
    Oregon -22 v. UCLA
    Baylor -34.5 @ Kansas
    Auburn -23.5 v. Florida Atlantic
    Oregon St +4 v. Stanford

    Browns +8 @ Chiefs

    • acto

      Cap, I like your picks and I am a UT, (Toledo and Texas fan), but,
      ” Got way too drunk in a loge there for a BG-UT game.”

      Are you certain it was not “Way too drunk at a luge in Lake Placid”?
      There may be more possibilities to that story.

      • Capitalgg

        Fully stocked loge, aka luxury box, at the Glass Bowl. Apparently my friends family shared their box with the local Budweiser distributor. I remember i had fun. That’s all I remember after the first quarter.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    (AP) BGSU -3.5 over Toledo
    Troy +10.5 over W. KY
    Stanford -4 over Oregon St.
    Hawaii +4 over Colorado St.
    Steelers -2.5 over Raiders
    ***Bengals -6.5 over Jets

    ***Gah, picking 2 AFC North teams that aren’t the Browns-what has become of me? Oh that’s right, cold hard reality – kinda like the half-ton of icy snow that I had to push off of my car this morning. (But it was beautiful outside this morning here on the east side of Cleveland, if you took the time to just look at it, even if it was while taking your dog down the block to do his thing.)
    Somebody in this division has to make a move, and it seems like Cincy is doing that. After being Hoyered last month (just wait till next year, y’all) they have been on a tear and
    If ever there was a year for the Bengals to be who they are supposed to be, it is now- with the Steelers and Ravens wavering, and of course the Browns being, you know.
    The Jets are all over the place, losing to the Steelers and then (barely) beating the Pats. The Bengals feel much more stable, and since it’s mostly about defense here in the North, that’s how it will be decided.

    • acto

      CLTIL, you know I love you but, Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah.
      I rode my bicycle this morning, went to work and now my boss and I both have hit our state limit on Red Drum and we are sitting in my boat feeling a mild sunburn, sipping martinis and rejoicing that we left the rust belt. (He is from that Pennsylvania Hell Hole.)
      Move down here CLTIL! We can meet for games, rise to new levels of profane derisiveness and share big bowls of ceviche.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        Tempting, but no. If greener pastures did it for me, I’d have been gone long ago. Some weird kind of attachment I have to this place, but it’s got me.

        • Double like for strong come on and swift rejection.

          #TeamCoolIt

          • CleveLandThatILove

            (I can’t tell him it’s the pink shirts – he loves those things.)

          • Cool it.

            Just. Cool. It.

          • acto

            Frownie,
            That was only my 137th swift rejection from CLTIL.
            It is all part of my master plan. Thank you for your role as COOL IT!! Police, you are an integral cog in my fool proof plan to woo CLTIL.

          • I’m mostly worried that there won’t be any room for me on the boat if CLTIL gets down there before I do.

          • acto

            Well, perhaps I should not call it a boat, it is really more of a small dingy with an engine and room for a cooler. (How many “acto has a small dingy” jokes can you make out of that?)

  • chuckycrater

    More picks:

    – ALL PLAY: Bowling Green -3.5 vs. Toledo
    – Fresno State -8 vs. San Diego State
    – Texas +2.5 vs. TCU
    – Auburn -23.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

    ESSAY: Clemson -14 vs. Maryland

    If “Don’t overthink this” counts as an essay, then I think this picture should as well.

    • i’d need approval from the council of elders on ‘don’t overthink’ essays but bama *is* under 4 TDs at bryant-denny this week so i need to get on their docket.

      • chuckycrater

        Well, TECHNICALLY there are 100 words on that injury report. But I’ll write a real essay if I have to.

        • nah, you’re good.

        • I mean I’d be curious to know how many of those guys are starters or whatever but I’m not going to play this one either way.

  • Art_Brosef

    Here we go. Fresh off a Lobsterfest, which means 0-6 is a distinct possibility. Ill start with these two and Ill be adding at least two more college plays. Including, most likely, a surprising essay.

    MTSU + 8 – Marshall playing their 4th road game in their last five. I dont love this MTSU team but this is just too many points at home at night.

    Idaho +41 – This is a let down game for Ole Miss is coming off back to back games vs top 10 opponents. GRR said it correctly when he said these SEC teams “treat these games as a vacation.” Do you like to work hard or extend maximum effort on vacation?

    • GRRustlers

      Shit. I never looked at vacation like a logical person would. It’s mostly a play for me because I hope the 2nd and 3rd stringers from Ole Miss exert effort since this will be the most time they will see on the field. Eventually I’ll have to move on from my Idaho obsession…

  • Concierge

    MTSU +10
    Sent from my iPhone

  • chuckycrater

    I’ll join the masses taking Panthers -5.5 tonight. I expect a terrible effort out of the Bucs as they now realize they can tank to get their coach fired. Plus Carolina will blitz Glennon senseless and he is terrible throwing deep/under pressure.

    • Schiano is so jank. These are words to live by.

    • Glennon and Schiano were so made for each other, too. Why hasn’t Schiano been fired yet? This could be the first Art-Shell-type autoplay situation that we’ve seen since the Art Shell days.

      • Matt Borcas

        There’s speculation that the Glazers are hoping Schiano will just resign (presumably to bolt for a college job a la Bobby Petrino) for contractual reasons. Basically, they don’t want to be like Randy Lerner, who was paying Crennel, Mangenius, and Shurmur at the same time.

  • Now uh usually I don’t do this but go ‘head on break me off with Panthers -5.5 for one point.

    • Panthers (W)

      And for the All Play, Toledo. FlyHighCharlie makes good sense.

      Will be back later today w/ 4 NFL picks and essay to round out the slate.

      • Panthers (W)
        Toledo (W)

        4 more NFL picks here:

        ESSAY: Vikings +9.5 over Packers:

        As ClevTA pointed out, this line looks like a bad overreaction to Minnesota’s bad loss to the Giants on MNF last week. It was a bad idea to try to start Josh Freeman when he’d had only a week to try to learn the playbook. Additionally, the Giants defense has actually been quite good against the run this year, and they were a team desperate to get in the win column. It was a really bad spot for the Vikings. Bad bad bad bad bad.

        Now Christian Ponder is back at the helm and as much as he’s the NFL quarterback most likely to have a gateway to Narnia in his closet, he’s not always completely terrible when he has a full complement of weapons to work with. Just a few weeks ago, Ponder’s Vikes moved the ball well enough against a Browns defense that’s significantly better than what Green Bay will throw at them on Sunday Night. And more to the point, however terrible Ponder is he is thirty billion times better than Brandon Weeden. With AP running the ball, and a QB that’s at least semi-familiar with the playbook, the Vikings should be able to take advantage of the Packers injuries on defense in a way that the Browns did not last week.

        That the Vikings signed Freeman at all shows that they’re trying to win games this season. They’re a team with a strong veteran presence that’s desperate for a good showing on national TV. Ponder might even have caught a spark from the whole Freeman affair. Anyway, 9.5 for a home dog in a divisional match is a ton. Skol, Vikings, let’s cover this game!

        Dolphins +6.5 over Patriots: Another team desperate and due for a good showing is the Dolphins. A decimated Pats defense is just what the doctor ordered here. And Miami’s defense compares well to the Bengals unit that shut New England down.

        Jaguars +16 over Niners: There’s no way the Mangenius will be allowing the playbook to be opened for this one. Niners win a tidy 21-10 affair across the pond.

        Broncos -12: The Washington Cornball Brothers are the absolute worst.

        For what it’s worth, I’m afraid things could get ugly today in KC. Hope everyone enjoys the Cheddar action, anyway.

        • It should be noted that the Niners only threw 17 passes today. That is all. Skol! Vikings! Skol!

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    For one Cheddar point, Marshall -8 at MTSU

    The rest later

    • Art_Brosef

      Im in with MTSU. Whats the side bet?

      • FlyHighCharlieFrye

        I’m the worst. Nice job, Marshall.

        Anyway…

        New York Giants +5.5 at Philly

        UNLV +6 at Nevada

        Washington -25 vs.Cal

        Clemson -14 at Maryland

        All play/essay: Toledo +3.5

        I like a little backyard rivalry. And I like this Bowling Green team — a quarterback change gave it life, two receivers who might be in NFL camps next spring make plays and the Falcons haven’t had and probably won’t have a better path to the MAC title game than they have this year. But Toledo is kind of Big Brother here, a team that’s better than its record indicates and a team that needs this game just as badly. Toledo has outgained BG by more than 100 yards in each of the last two meetings, and Toledo’s per play numbers this year compare favorably
        despite the Rockets having played at Florida, Mizzou and Ball State thus far. I hate that Toledo’s starting RB is dinged up and I hate that Terrance Owens really has never gotten much better as a quarterback but I love that a field goal game here will give me 3 essay points. Only the MAC could botch this to the point of it being an online-only broadcast but believe me, these are two good teams and two coaches who very well might be in their last BG-Toledo game. Toledo’s coach refers to BG only as “That School Down South” which is kinda precious but not as precious
        as a close win or close loss would be on Saturday afternoon.

  • cwonder23

    Panthers -5.5 @ Tampa Bay
    Cam is hitting his stride. More to come!

  • TheKardiacKid

    TheKardiacKid
    Thursday night:
    Carolina -5.5 @Tampa Bay

  • Peter Markos

    jimkanicki Mod

    • 7 minutes ago • 0 0

    +

    BGSU
    PACKERS -10 OVER MINN
    SEA-6.5 OVER STL
    CENTRAL FL -21 OVER UCONN
    CAR OVER TD
    SF OVER JAC

    A 14 POINT SPREAD SEEMS SMALL AFTER LAST WEEKS 28 POINT SPREAD,BUT OF COURSE 14 POINTS IS BAD. THE OTHER BAD NUMBER IS THE $770 MILLION SHAHID KHAN SPENT ON THE WORST TEAM IN THE WORST CITY IN AMERICA. THIS TEAM IS MOVING. NEW STADIUM IN RED NECK VILLE. GODD LUCKL WITH THAT. THE FUTURE PROFITABILITY OF THE LEAGUE LOOKS SOFT TO ME WITH INSURANCE AND LIABILITY CLAIMS EATING PROFITS.

    see more

    0 0 You must sign in to down-vote this post.

    • okie doke, i got em.

    • HitTheHorns

      49ers are -16 against Jaguars.

  • pateslvrblk

    First pick
    Mississippi State -10 over Kentucky

  • [on behalf of PETER]

    BGSU
    PACKERS -10 OVER MINN
    SEA-6.5 OVER STL
    CENTRAL FL -21 OVER UCONN
    CAR OVER TD
    SF OVER JAC

    A 14 POINT SPREAD SEEMS SMALL AFTER LAST WEEKS 28 POINT SPREAD,BUT OF COURSE 14 POINTS IS BAD. THE OTHER BAD NUMBER IS THE $770 MILLION SHAHID KHAN SPENT ON THE WORST TEAM IN THE WORST CITY IN AMERICA. THIS TEAM IS MOVING. NEW STADIUM IN RED NECK VILLE. GODD LUCKL WITH THAT. THE FUTURE PROFITABILITY OF THE LEAGUE LOOKS SOFT TO ME WITH INSURANCE AND LIABILITY CLAIMS EATING PROFITS.

  • CLEVTA

    Skanky Fish picks of the week. First <.500 week of the season and that was only bc that dirty Jordan Lynch decided to tear apart CMU on a meaningless last minute drive for an ugly backdoor cover by N Ill. It happens

    CFB
    1. South Carolina +2.5 v Mizzou (69% on Mizzou, opened -3) Pick: SC
    2. Akron +10 v Ball St (72% on Ball St, opened -11.5) Pick: Akron
    3. Kent St +1 v Buffalo (65% on Buffalo, opened -2) Pick: Kent St
    4. Hawaii +4 v CSU (62% on CSU, opened -5) Pick: Hawaii

    NFL
    1. Arizona -3 v ATL (63% on ATL, opened PK) Pick: Arizona

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    I’ll take Panthers -5.5 tonight.

  • FTCMikeD

    Tonight: Panthers -5.5 over @Bucs

    Rest of picks tomorrow.

    • FTCMikeD

      Here’s the rest of my picks this week:
      AP: Toledo +3 over @BGSU
      @FSU -31.5 over NCST
      @SJSU -7 over Wyoming

      Panthers over @Bucs (WIN)
      Packers -9.5 over @Vikes
      ******Seahawks -10.5 over @Rams

      ******Sometimes things just fall apart, we know this well as Browns fans. And the Rams are falling apart. First, the loss of their QB Sam Bradford for the year to an ACL is a HUGE loss. He is the best part of their offense. His replacement, Kellen Clemons, we know is a terrible QB who makes poor decisions, thanks to Bernie Kosar’s analysis. The other option for the Rams is Brady Quinn…. yeah. Calling Brett Favre to see if he’s available? Yeah, the Rams are desparate. And on the other side of the ball, one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. They are going to be all over Clemons and will pose a challenge for their running game. The ‘hawks offense may even get Percy Harvin back this week, adding another weapon to their potent offense. Lastly, they will be playing a World Series game just down the road – game 5. NO ONE in Saint Louis will even be paying attention to the Rams and I’d be surprised if people show up. If they do, they’ll probably be watching the baseball game on their phones or something, so they’ll be totally out of it. All these factors add up to savaging of the Rams on MNF.

  • Petefranklin

    SCRATCH #3 carolina and add mtsu plus-8 over marshall. Thanks

  • Petefranklin

    AP BGSU+3.5 – Simple trend play here
    #2 Pittsburg-2.5 @ Oakland, looks like the tide has turned for Pitts.
    #3Carolina -5@ Tampa Another trend play and Cam Newton seems to be rolling again.

    #4 NY Giants +5.5@Philly who burns money at home.
    #5 Hawaii +4 over CSU who does not like to play after flying. This is a long flight!
    #6 Essay CMFB’s +8 @ KC Well this is my D.I.L.L.I.G.A.F. after pissing away two points by being stubborn last week and not picking Oregon St because there were already two essays on them.
    .
    I don’t know why I would bet the Clowns but at +8 I’ll take the bait.Campbell sucks I’m sure, but he surely cant be as bad as Weeden.
    Here’s what I’m seeing in this line…..There was no adjustment for getting rid of Weeden. St Louis and Minnesota both had 4 point “bad QB adjustments”. I’m thinking that Campbell should be worth 4 points(in the Browns favor) as well which would keep this game close.
    KC’s 7-0 is regarded lightly by most sharps and wiseguys as their SB odds are still 15/1. As long as Campbell doesn’t give the ball away MORE than once and doesn’t flick any booger pases, I suspect that the Clowns will suddenly reresemble an actual NFL team this week. And if this loses…D.I.L.L.I.G.A.F? I’ll be at Dumont Dunes so I will have NO actual action this weekend. G.L. everyone!

  • GRRustlers

    Week 9 Picks

    First and most importantly…great work here. The design here looks great. Kudos to you and all who helped out.

    Second this is about the time last year when I got out of the middle of the pack and got all the way to the 4th before hanging on for a playoff spot…so I looked at the spreadsheet from last year and our defending champion (Harbaugh Handshakes) was stuck in the mid 30s this time last year. Everyone is still in it so it’s time for me to get it together.

    All Play

    Bowling Green (-3.5) over Toledo – Couple things here. Love the home team. Love Bowling Green when they draw a Sun Belt team in a bowl game.

    Ole Miss (-41) over Idaho – SEC teams view these games as vacations from the conference grind and they will run it up vs an Idaho team terrible on the road.

    Saints (-11) over Bills – The Saints have had two weeks to think about what happened in New England. Really bad spot for Buffalo here.

    Panthers (-5.5) over Buccaneers – The best way to finally quit on your coach is to do it when everyone in America is watching.

    Rams (+10.5) over Seahawks – This line got way too high for a divisional game and the fact that maybe just maybe Bradford is not that big of a loss. Clemens will be just fine and keep it inside double digits.

    Essay Pick

    GRR: Siri, has a QB ever led the NCAA in rushing for a season?

    Siri: (Silence)

    Wife: You have an HTC you unbelievable dipshit.

    GRR: (Silence)

    Jordan Lynch was kind of special last week. 316 yards on the ground and another 155 in the air. The Huskies come home to play an Eastern Michigan team that will probably be pretty deflated. A very emotional week for them last week against Ohio and anyone who saw the Eagles return the opening kickoff for a TD and the sheer joy of those kids on the sideline…well sports are cool sometimes. The problem is reality sets in on Saturday and the Eagles are 123rd in points allowed this year.

    Lynch runs wild again on Saturday and won’t stop until he wins the rushing title this year and pulls up a chair in New York City in December. He won’t win the Heisman but it’s only right that #MACtion is properly represented.

    NIU (-29.5) over EMU

  • acto

    TCU -2.5 over Texas ****Super Fantastic Special Terrific Happy Fun Essay****

    This is Texas v. BYU all over again, while TCU does not have an amazing player like Eatheeyaannnee Malinawhevaweiiaianaia, they do have a front seven that can stop the run and put pressure on Chips Junior. I was all for Tx v. Okie because Texas promised to focus on the running game all day and Okla was not expecting that attack and they are not the best team against the run. TCU has some muscle up front and a secondary that is not quite exactly unlike terrific, I would like to see Jason Verrett wearing Brown and Orange while freezing his ass off some time in the near future. There is not much more that is needed to stop Chips Jr. David Ash is still suffering from a head injury and Case McChips is still suffering from delusions of grandeur. All of the local pundits in print, radio and on TV are saying that Texas should be favored by a TD. The Great H. L. Mencken said, “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”

    Who am I to argue with H. L. Mencken? I shall take TCU.

    Toledo +3.5 over BGSU **AP**

    UTSA -7 over UAB

    Utah -6.5 over USC

    Texas State U +1.5 over out of South Alabama came a country boy

    Panthers -5.5 over Tampa Bay

  • Petefranklin

    What’s the line on Hawaii/CSU? I’m seeing 4’s and 5’s.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Looking good, JK!

  • HitTheHorns

    I watch this every couple weeks just to remind myself that I’m not dead inside.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZANnuzSFdag

    • CLEVTA

      Bless u for posting this. One of my longest lasting Browns memories as a kid. Quick story. I used to live off of West 6th about 5 years ago and was one of the last stragglers over at Liquid around 1:30am the night before the Browns were playing the Ravens. I was all set to walk across the street and pass out when I see Eric Metcalf with some young lady having a drink at the bar. My drunk ass comes over and tells Eric I’m a big fan and one of my favorite memories as a kid was him running back two punt returns for tds. He had an amazed look on his face and says “Wait, u really remember that?”. I said hell yeah I’ll never forget it and the fact it was against the Steelers made it even sweeter. He couldn’t believe it and was so happy that he proceeds to buy me a shot and we cheers to the good old days. Then the next day I was in the club seats and go to grab a beer and who do I see but Metcalf and Langhorne. Metcalf comes racing over my way and tells Reggie that I was the guy who he did a shot with the night before. Me, Eric and Reggie trade old Browns stories for the next 10 minutes and I buy them a shot as a payback. We took a pic together and Langhorne flips off the camera, no idea why but I loved it. Unfortunately that was about 5 phones ago and dont have it anymore. Great memories

      • Petefranklin

        That’s an awesome story!

      • HitTheHorns

        Wow, what a memory. We must be close in age because I was 10 when that happened. I am from West Va, so I haven’t met any Browns. But I did meet Mel Kiper years ago and told him I thought Dennis Northcutt was awful and how could he be playing for the Browns, and Kiper thought he was a playmaker. Ever since then I typically have the exact opposite opinion of guys that Kiper does. Also played AAU with Brandon Fuss-Cheatham growing up. Jumper was always broke.

      • FlyHighCharlieFrye

        Great story TA. But any Brandon Fuss-Cheatham references should be rewarded with $50 gift cards.

        • CLEVTA

          Yeah a BFC reference should be rewarded. Will never get that awful left handed jumper out of my memory. I vote Applebees. While I dont have any BFC stories I do have a couple Boban Savovic stories which I wont share here. As well as a drunken Orlando Pace picking up my friend, during my freshman year, in the hallway of the Towers at OSU and almost tossing him down an entire flight of stairs for absolutely no reason outside of drinking about 50 beers. Good old days

      • That that that picture. Why didn’t you email it to yourself or something? What a tragedy.

      • rodofdisaster

        I met Eric once at Texas. He was the ONLY player we had my freshman year. He was our whole offense. Struck me as unassuming. Thanks for the post.

  • First! First first first first first first first. Boom!

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