#CheddarBay Week 8: FSU -3 at Clemson.

* THIS WEEKS LINES ARE LINKED HERE.
* THIS WEEK’S ALL PLAY IS FSU -3 AT CLEMSON (8PM SATURDAY, ABC).
* IPAD/MOBILEDEVICE USERS:  THE STANDINGS ARE LINKED HERE.
* DOUBLE CHECK MY ENTRY OF YOUR PICKS ON THIS SPREADSHEET.

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Winston or Beasley, who you got?

Nice little matchup shaping up Saturday night in South Carolina.  Say what you want about the NCAA but they do a decent job presenting their stats.  I decided to check Clemson and FSU out and it turns they’re pretty even.  (Stats are fun when you’re not ruled by them.)

Clemson (national rankings)

  • #1 3rd down defense (23.7%);
  • #14 Pass Completion Pct. (69.0%);
  • #10 First Down Defense
  • #4 (Least) Passes had intercepted (2)
  • #9 Interceptions (10)
  • #10 Passing Offense (342 YPG)
  • #18 (Least) Passing yards allowed (187 YPG)
  • #4 Red zone defense
  • #10 Scoring defense (16.2)
  • #17 Scoring offense (40.8)
  • #1 Sacks (4.0)
  • #8 Passing Efficiency
  • #1 Tackles for loss (10.2 per game)
  • #13 Total offense (515 YPG)
  • #4 Turnover margin (+1.5)
  • #2 Sacks, Vic Beasley

FSU

  • #5 Pass Completion Pct. (70.4%)
  • #2 First Down Defense
  • #1 (Least) Fumbles lost (1)
  • #4 (Least) Passes had intercepted (2)
  • #2 (Least) Passing yards allowed (149 YPG)
  • #6 Yards per completion (16.04)
  • #4 Red zone offense
  • #17 Rush offense (228 YPG)
  • #3 Scoring defense (12.0)
  • #3 Scoring offense (53.6)
  • #2 Passing Efficiency
  • #4 Total offense (549 YPG)
  • #1 (Least) turnovers lost (3)
  • #2 Passing Efficiency, Jameis Winston

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Skanky Fish picks via @ClevTA

<a class='bp-suggestions-mention' href='http://603brown.com/members/clevta/' rel='nofollow'><p class=@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks." src="https://jimkanicki.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/stinky-dead-animated-fish-with-flies-e1380132312971.gif" width="100" height="80" /> @ClevTA’s Skanky Fish Picks.

17-7-2 year to date, 2-1-1 last week.  As Kanick pointed out last night, La Laff would’ve fit the profile and won outright as a 3 pt dog.

NCAAF:

1. UCONN +13.5 v Cincy (Line opened Cincy -16, now -13.5. 69% of public on CIN) Pick: UCONN
2. CMU -15.5 v N Ill (Line opened N Ill -17, now -15.5. 66% of public on N Ill) Pick: CMU

NFL:

1. NYJ +4 v NE (Line opened -6, now -4. 76% of public on NE) Pick: NYJ
2. TENN +4 v SF (Line opened SF -6, now -4. 71% of public on SF) Pick: TENN

Seems about time to take this seriously…

______
Thank you Brandon Marshall.

AP-Chiefs-Titans-Football_001-1024x682

Acceptable.

Big ups to Brandon Marshall for using his platform to ‘raise awareness’ on a subject whose awareness actually needs raising:  Mental Health.  In case you missed it, Marshall (diagnosed with Borderline Personality Disorder) was fined $10,500 by the NFL for wearing green shoes last Thursday night.

Marshall had said before last Thursday’s game he was wearing the shoes to attract attention to Mental Health Awareness Week.  Marshall has been treated for a personality disorder in the past.

Marshall posted the league letter informing him of the fine on Twitter and wrote:  “Football is my platform not my purpose.  This fine is nothing compared to the conversation started & awareness raised.”

Marshall said he had planned to match any fine with a donation to his foundation, which supports mental health awareness.  He said he also plans to auction off the shoes and donate the proceeds to charity.

NFL: New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Unacceptable.

We’ve long viewed the NFL/BreastCancer/Komen month to be way over the top and thought that there are other charities/causes equally if not more deserving of the NFL’s help except that then it would actually be driven by the altruism it talks to rather than the more probable cynical outreach for larger audience share in that other gender demographic.

Here’s Brandon Marshall’s Foundation’s website.

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In other news …
It’s Acto’s world and we’re just living in it.

Nice work by HitTheHorns last week on his Lobsterfest.

And your Cheddar commissioner apologizes for not engaging more in the thread and twitter lately, just a little busy and — I have to share this — I have got a some kind of allergic reaction (confirmed, Poison Sumac) thing going where my face looks like Ali’s after the Holmes fight.  Damnedest thing, remarkably hideous, Elephant Man stuff.

Ok Cheddars let’s get back on track this week.

  • Wait- why am I still doing this? I suppose someone has to come in last and it might as well be me. The broad who joined because she likes writing more than football and this the only football game in town that cares about that sort of thing.

    Essay & All Play – What I like to call a “twofer”

    Florida State -3

    The all play is a no brainer for me me. I’ve always taken a shining to the Seminoles because while I’m not one of those girls who picks their NCAA Basketball Brackets by who has the best colors, I fricken love what Florida State has going on. My affinity for glitter is no secret and I can’t even imagine the joy if would have brought me to be able to wear gold glitter and call it school colors. The gold paired with garnet is magical. Hands down my favorite color scheme in all of sports.

    Gold and black is a little too crass and it’s way too easy to pull off. I only wish someone could make Steelers fans understand that they’re black and yellow, not black and gold, that’s the Saints. Any broad can pull off black and gold…takes a real woman to wear brown and orange. I digress.

    Even though I’m not personally close with any Seminole fans, my favorite Cleveland couple to follow on social media (that’s right, I’ve never met them in person) just got married and he’s a Seminole. One of my graduate teachers is an alumna of Florida State too, and she rocks. FSU is just surrounded by all kinds of good karma – they’re even officially sanctioned by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. No wahoo curse there.

    Interested in knowing more about Clemson? I’m not even going to waste my time. You can learn about Clemson’s finest on Twitter @ClemsonMakeouts, @ClemsonPassouts, @ClemsonParties, @ClemsonSquirrel, and @CU_Slam.

    Other Picks Include:

    Arkansas +27.5 vs. Alabama – Travis Benjamin may catch rabbits (http://goo.gl/YBs35w) but Ivan Thomas, a high school defensive-lineman is the only guy out there who’s catching wild hogs these days (http://goo.gl/uVzlT6), and seeing as Thomas won’t be NCAA untill he joins Texas Tech next year- the Razorbacks will be free from total persecution and at the very least won’t lose that game by that much.

    Wait- wasn’t there football player who catches wild boars with his bare hands? Yes, they would be Kaluka Maiava – a linebacker, formerly of the Cleveland Browns, now with the Raiders. Forget drafting SEC players – I want the Browns to draft only players who can hunt and capture their own game.

    Akron -7 vs. Miami of Ohio – Two words to describe the RedHawks, hot mess. I almost became a leadership consultant for my sorority, but I didn’ and Miami of Ohio is the reason. The same year I was applying was the year my sorority on their campus was put on probation for reprehensible actions during and after a formal. My sisters and their dates not only trashed the venue but urinated on historical artifacts. I simply couldn’t imagine what sort of consulting I could provide to that demographic and put my professional sorority girl dreams on hold.

    Illinois +12.5 vs. Badgers – Because I can.

    Bills +7.5 vs. Dolphins – This is a conference game folks, it’s gonna be a close one.

    49ers -4 vs. Titans – Yeah, yeah, yeah, it’s in Tennessee but they’re still out a quarterback and the 49ers are not that much less of a superbowl team than they were last year. 49ers win by 6 (points that Phil Dawson kicks.)

  • Clemson +3 over Florida St
    UCLA +6 over Stanford ***
    Missouri +3.5 over Florida
    Eagles -2.5 over Cowboys
    Steelers -2.5 over Ravens
    Falcons -7 over Bucs

    *** UCLA is a legit contender for the BCS. They’ve been quietly creeping up the pools all year and have been unnoticed in the PAC 12 thanks to Oregon and Stanford. Stanford proved last week they aren’t the powerhouse of previous years by slipping to Utah. UCLA pushed Stanford to the end last year and a missed field goal in the PAC 12 title game that resulted in a 3 point loss. This year’s Bruins team is even better. They have a bunch of talent on the defensive side with the d-line guys who will end up in the NFL. This strength up front can neutralize the area where Stanford usually dominates its opponents. On the offensive side they have depth everywhere (9 different players with a touchdown reception so far this year) and the QB Hundley has been spectacular in his sophomore season. When UCLA wins this game out right, their date with the Ducks next weekend could be to get into the BCS title game.

  • squeekycleen

    Essay play: Cincinnati Bengals. Yep, right back with the Bengals. The public just loves the Lions. Stafford, Johnson, Bush, passing! Suh! Sacks! And they are playing at home. And only laying a point! This opportunity must look amazing. Again, we will buck conventional wisdom and go with the Bungles, who I think are still undervalued at this point. They should be able to get after Stafford with the front seven and hopefully Dalton can get the ball to a motivated AJ Green. This has been an incredible year for me so far, and its no surprise since the overall contest numbers are atrocious. When you win, I lose. It’s pretty simple. But 2013 is not the square fest 2011 and 2012 were. Instead, its been a contrarian free-for-all in the mode of 2006. But I digress, Bungles it is for the essay.

    Other regular plays:
    Washington Redskins
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Minnesota Vikings
    USC Trojans

    All play:
    Florida State Seminoles

    Really don’t like either card this week, probably will not go wild with real plays. Always best to play conservative with the lead and not spill your profits into the street.

  • deputyglitters

    FSU -3 @ Clemson
    Browns +9.5 vs. Packers
    Texans +6.5 @ Chiefs
    Bears PK @ Washington
    Chargers -7.5 @ Jags

    Broncos -6 @ Colts **

    Since it’s probably not acceptable to simply write “Peyton will shove it up Irsay’s ass” a thousand times over, I’ll have to come up with something else to thrown down here. This is an emotional pick more than anything. Denver’s defense isn’t very good, but is ranked much worse than they are in reality thanks to that arena game against the Cowboys. Trent Richardson really does suck, and the country will finally get to see it live. Without a decent running game to keep Peyton off the field, and without the horses to keep up, I don’t think they can match Denver the way the Cowboys did on the turf in Dallas. There will be no dogs called off here–this is going to look a lot like that hard-to-watch scene in Django.

  • So, I didn’t get to pick the SeaChickens over Ohio’s state bird in the desert last night. It would have been my essay, but still plenty of games on the slate this weekend. So, let’s start with another Seattle team that should leave this currently frigid desert happy…

    ***Washington (+3) at Arizona State***
    Let me get this straight, ASU loses to the Irish on a neutral field, then stomps Colorado, and we’re going to say the Devils are 3 points better at home than the Huskies, who, unlike ASU, hung with Stanford in Palo Alto and turned in a noble effort against the Ducks at home. The Sun Devils do thing similarly to Oregon, but without anything near the talent level up front, so count on Justin Wilcox to take the game away from Marion Grice and force Taylor Kelly to win with his arm. Unless they can slow down Bishop Sankey, and that’s going to require a monster effort from Jaxon Hood, this could get ugly for the home team. Washington wins by a lot and spoils homecoming in Tempe.

    Toledo (-8.5) vs Navy

    Texas A & M (-12.5) vs Auburn

    *Florida State (-3) at Clemson*

    Dolphins -7.5 vs Bills

    Ravens (+2.5) at Steelers

  • 1. ***@ECU -22.5 USM
    We’re deep enough into the season where we all should have a favorite worst team identified. FHCFrye is on WMU; GRR traditionally likes Idaho in that role; I think EMU belongs in the convo. But my nominee for worst team in CFB is the loser of last week’s Suck Bowl against FIU — The USM Golden Eagles. They’re 0-6 this year; 0-12 last year; that’s 0-18 since Larry Fedora left. But that’s not the whole story. To me, the worst team, thus the best pigeon, is also the one with the worst offense. USM rates here at 12.2 points per game (#120th). They’re horrible in total offense, rush offense, pass efficiency, rush defense, pass defense, scoring defense.. you get the idea. They’re also dead last in turnover margin. Meanwhile, ECU sports a top 10 pass offense, good rush defense.. pretty strong across the board. They played VaTech tough at home (beat UNC and MTSU on the road).. 22.5 in Greenville shouldnt be a problem.

    2. AP: FSU -3 @Clemson Coin-flip. Should be a great game. Just happen to think FSU is special this year.

    3. GSU +16.5 @TxSt Since I’m the only player here who unearthed that former successful BC coach, later blackballed failed Jets HC candidate Jeff Jagodzinski is now GSU’s OC… it was bothersome to lose against GSU last week and with them running a crisp little offense against Troy. Maybe they’ve figured something out there.

    4. UMD -6.5 @Wake Wake is coming off a bye week so Jim Grobe has had an extra week to prepare. This favors Maryland.

    5. @Bama -27.5 Ark Brutal stretch of games for the Hogs (TAMU, Fla, SCAR, Bama) and the wheels are falling off. Don’t overthink this.

    6. Browns +9.5 @Packers This year’s Browns team is not ok being counted out. Sheard return is major add; Pack without Matthews, Bulaga, Cobb, Brad Jones, Starks. They start a 4th round rookie at left tackle (Bakhtiari) even allowing for Rodgers’ quick read/release that matchup says Kruger should be looking at his biggest impact game. Jarrett Boykin looks to be their #2 WR this week so Haden just needs to be all on top of Jordy Nelson. Weeden is a nightmare, yes, but the Pack’s d-front (minus Matthews) is not in the same class as Lions’.. nowhere near.

  • FSU -3 over Clemson: Jameis is the real deal, and 80,000 drunk, angry fans with butts very clenched due to their history won’t intimidate him. It’s not a Clemsoning because they’re a dog even though they’re at home, but there’s no way that entire stadium doesn’t go full ’03 Cubs when one little thing goes wrong.

    Sakerlina -7 over Tennessee. OBC doesn’t make statements like he did this week unless he’s very assured of victory. That’s decades of OBC watching coming in handy here. Oh, and Clowney back? Clowney back.

    Maryland -6.5 over Wake. BREAKING: Wake still sucks. Don’t let a flukey win over a choking NC State fool you… this is still a really bad football team. And Maryland, after almost blowing it against the Hoos and getting Upper GI’ed against FSU, doesn’t suck three weeks in a row. Randy Edsall might be a disingenuous prick, but he’s a disingenuous prick that doesn’t have his team play three bad games consecutively.

    Stanford -6 over UCLA. I’m big on Brett Hundley and he could win this game by himself, but he won’t because Stanford still controls their own destiny and they’re not going to blow this at home after last weeks shocker. Shaw is too good a coach to let that happen.

    Food -17.5 over NMSU. New Mexico State lost 66-17 to a terrible New Mexico team in their last game. They are 0-5 and I might lay even money they’ll be 0-12 this season without even looking at the balance of their schedule. They are a Godforsaken football team that might not beat Chuckycraters high school alma mater. Food is full of smart kids that look at lines, and Food can run the ball. Food is going to lay it on thick here.

    Essay: Oregon State -10 over Cal. Oregon State can lay the damn woodshed to everyone in the Pac-12 that’s not their hated neighbor. It’s amazing that Nike has allowed the Beavers to get this good… I think Phil Knight might pull them off the swoosh teat any day now. How can you put a team that lost to an FCS team that plays on a field of blood (Google Eastern Washington’s field) in a BCS game? Well if they only lose again to Oregon, I think it would be the weirdest 10-2 team that could get consideration for an at-large bid ever. They would have lost to an FCS team and a bitter rival that’s playing for the national championship and that’s it. So bizarre.

    OSU throws it everywhere early and often (433 yards per game), and Cal can’t stop a nosebleed (allows 321 yards a game through the air). The over isn’t allowed in this contest, but that might be an even safer bet. Sean Mannion has it figured out, and he’s got a running game that can keep the pressure off him.

    If someone laid me 80 at even money, I would still take the over on the Civil War right now and just hope it wasn’t a monumental rainstorm this year. As an aside Sonny Dykes is going to be good at Cal. He had a really fun team at La Tech last year that Skip Holtz is currently destroying, but it was a great hire (I really wanted USF to make a run at him). This will be the last season they lay double digits at home in the Pac-12 to anyone but Oregon or Rebuilt USC for awhile.

    • chuckycrater

      For the record, that would be Plant High School, with four state titles since 2006 and producer of Aaron Murray, Orson Charles, and Cornelius Gallon. Maybe the best high school program in Florida.

  • ALL PLAY: Florida State -3 vs. Clemson

    Not entirely sold on Clemson’s ability to keep drives moving and I think FSU will blanket Sammy Watkins and make someone else try to beat them. I watched last year’s game very closely so I could scout FSU for my now-former blog, and they really clowned Clemson to the tune of 650-some yards. The score was deceptively close because Chad Morris emptied the entire bag of tricks and most of them worked.

    Stanford -6 vs. UCLA
    Oklahoma State -7 vs. TCU
    Ball State -18.5 vs. ROW ROW ROW YOUR BOAT GENTLY TOWARDS 0-12
    Jets +4 vs. Patriots (trusting the stinky fish)

    ESSAY: Oregon State -10 vs. California

    I think I’ve found my weakness in this contest. At triple value, it’s implied that the essay is supposed to be your lock of the week, but sometimes I’m turning my back on them because I don’t think I can write an essay about some of these games. Case in point: If gambling was legal where I live, I would have bet real money on Boise State covering 7 points against a Chuckie Keeton-less Utah State last week. That line was insane. But I didn’t make it the essay because I couldn’t come up with 150 words about that game. Not that anyone could have predicted that my eventual essay would go up in flames because Texas rose up and walloped Oklahoma, but still.

    I was actually pretty solid on my Oregon State pick last week, inexplicably giving a point and a half to a sketchy Washington State team that they pulled away from in an impressive/hilarious display of promptly cashing in turnover after turnover. The Beavers have the #1 offense in the country and California comes into this game at #123 in defense, out of 125 teams. I think the Bears got a lot of credit for not playing terribly against Northwestern and Ohio State, but the bottom has fallen out on them lately. Also they lost to the aforementioned Wazzu Cougars by 22 points. Oregon State’s defense is at least credible enough to get a few stops. I don’t think this will be a complete blowout, but I have a hard time seeing California keep this game close enough to cover. Call it 48-27 or something.

  • bobby_slick

    Purdue +26.5
    Northwestern -12.5
    Clemson +3
    Mizzou +3.5
    Pats -4 ***
    Browns +9.5

    Geno and the Jets were lucky to be playing in the pouring rain the first time around and lucky that Brady hadn’t had time to develop some chemistry with his young weapons. Ridley looked to be on his game for the first time last week against a tough Saints D and Brady looked like himself again. My boy Kenbrel looks like the downfield threat these guys have been missing since Moss several years back. I think the Pats still have a lot to prove and this game is BIG for them. I fully expect Brady to take it to the Jets and I think they try and run it up against Rex. Geno has shown some glimpses but at the end of the day a Belichik coached team is going to confuse the rookie and cause a lot of problems for him

    For the love of god I need an essay hit…

  • CapitalGG

    Week 8:

    All-play: Clemson +3 v. Florida St: Clemson a 3-pt dog at home in a game I just assume they will lose because Clemson. It’s deja vu all over again. I won’t be fooled again.
    1. Cardinals +6.5 v. Seahawks: Smells of skanky fish and I love to take points with the home team on Thursday nights.
    2. UConn +13.5 @ Cincinnati: Stanky fish POTW. Cincy is not 2 TDs better than anyone. Not even UConn.
    3. No. Illinois -15.5 @ Central Michigan: I understand why Central looks like the right play, but this feels like a letdown for CMU and a bounceback for NIU.
    4. Texas A&M -12.5 v. Auburn: Johnny Football should be at least a 2 TD favorite here, so there is some value here.

    “Knock. Knock”
    “Who’s there?”
    “Red line.”
    “Red line who?”
    “The playoff red line, you idiot!”
    “Huh?”
    “Yeah, 3 weeks ago you were closer to the bottom of the standings and now you’re knocking on the playoff door.”
    “Really? How did that happen?”
    “Simple really, you started hitting your essay picks.”
    “Nice.”
    “Right. Do your remember what brought you here?”
    “Well there was that bizarre conversation with my guru.”
    “Of course. And what did he tell you?”
    “MACtion! Then he threw up and might have died.”
    “Yes. MACtion. Always MACtion. You have to stick to your MACtion.”
    “True dat. So who’s the play this week?”
    “Toledo versus the Naval Academy.”
    “Tempting, but I don’t feel right betting against the military and that option attack is tough to prepare for.”
    “Good point. You can stay away. How about Ohio and Eastern Michigan.”
    “Love betting against the boys for Ypsi. But Frankie S’s boys have been a real up-and-down shit show. So, nah.”
    “Fair enough. Buffalo has been pretty solid and they play UMass.”
    “Interesting. I wish I knew something about UMass. Hard to gage if that number is too big or just right. If only I knew UMass…”
    “You’re already on Northern Illinois over Central Michigan.”
    “Bet against Direction Michigan, I always say.”
    “So you’re gonna love this one.”
    “Yes?”
    Ball So Hard State against Western Michigan!”
    “Yes. The Number?”
    Eighteen and a half.”
    “So I can take the team that has treated me oh so well this year? The team that started my run a few weeks ago? My boy, Pete Lembo? Against the worst team in the MAC? And I don’t have to give more than 3 TDs? Where do I sign up?”
    “In the Open Thread, dummy. You do this every week, remember?”
    “I knew that…”

  • FTCMikeD

    @Michigan -7.5 over Indiana
    Wisconsin -12.5 over @Illinois
    AP: @Clemson +3 over FSU

    Bears PK over @Skins
    *****@Chiefs -6.5 over Texans
    Ravens +2.5 over @Steelers

    *****First off, the Texans are 0-6 ATS. Second, they go up against probably the toughest D in the league right now in the Chiefs. They will be all over TJ Yates, or Case Keenum, whoever they decide to start. Arrowhead wants to reassert itself as the toughest place to play, they broke the sound record last week, its no longer in Seattle. Alex Smith is playing mistake free football. Chiefs win by 7 or more.

  • Start me off with:

    Seahawks -6.5 (Essay)

    As much as I am known for my anti-Garrett Gilbert rants, this week I am taking to writing about another football personality that makes my blood boil: Pete Carroll.

    Here is a man who goes apeshit nuts when he’s up by 25 points with under two minutes to go and challenges a perceived fumble. Here’s a man who jumps around like a little girl on Pixie Stix when his team wins a professional football game. I’m sorry, perhaps I’m old. Tom Landry never did that. Vince Lombardi never would have embarrassed himself acting like Pete Carroll. Bottom line is that Pete Carroll is that uber-competitive guy who hid your textbook the night before the exam to get an edge on the chemistry final.

    As much as I can’t stand that man….he’s got a good team and they’re going against Carson Palmer who is perhaps the Garrett Gilbert of the NFL. For that alone, I should lay the 6.5.

    Then again, I’m 0-for-the-season on essay picks so y’all should just pick against this one and you will be golden.

    Clemson +3

  • Florida St -3 vs Clemson (All Play)
    Florida -3.5 vs Missouri
    UCLA +6 vs Stanford
    Iowa St +34 vs Baylor
    Patrious -4 vs Jets

    Broncos -7 vs Colts (Essay)
    I think Jim Irsay is losing his mind. Why are you taunting the best QB your franchise has ever had, sorry Johnny U. The guy is becoming a joke…..how does that Trent Richardson deal look so far? He thinks he knows better than everyone else and is heading towards Al Davis territory. There will be no mercy from Peyton this Sunday night. He will be running it up. Losing to Miami at home and San Diego aren’t horrible loses for Indy, but Dallas is the only team to come within double digits of the Broncos and they had to score 48 pts. Broncos by a bunch.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    All play: Clemson +3
    Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 at Detroit

    And…bring on the MACtion

    Kent State +6.5 at South Alabama
    Ohio -17 at Eastern Michigan
    Toledo -8.5 vs. Navy

    Ball State -18.5

    Going against Worstern Michigan worked last week, so why not again? The Broncos are a total mess and now must play the only quarterback IN THE COUNTRY who’s thrown for 300+ in every week a week after losing 33-0 to Buffalo. In that game Western was so bad that a first down inside the 20 turned into a third and 45 — 45! — and none of the penalties even involved holding Khalil Mack. The bottom of the MAC is really bad, folks, and this is about the time of year that disastrous seasons get worse before they get better. Ball State scores a bunch; Western is playing a freshman QB. I could go on, but every number suggests that Western is one of the worst teams in the country and the way Ball State is playing suggests that 20 is too low.

  • zarathustra

    I have had tonight’s nfl game circled all week. A banged up and overvalued seattle team traveling on short week to an (undervalued) cardinal team. I have been salivating for this home dog. But…last week I came up a torturous half point shy of a lobster with a failed pitt two point conversion after a miracle last minute touchdown that should have led me through the back door. I’ve had a run of good picks both here and in real life. Time to fade myself:
    Seahawks -6.5 over Cardinals

  • Central Mi +15.5 vs NIU
    Houston U +10 vs BYU
    Boys +2.5 vs Eagles
    Jets +4 vs Pats
    AP: Clemson -3 vs FSU
    EP: Bears pk vs Skins

    It’s time for some Cheddar Bay jeopardy!
    Alex: A racist slur, commonly used to depict Native Americans.
    What is Redskins?
    Alex: Correct Nick, select again!
    Alex: Diagnosed with borderline personality disorder, this NFL player started a charity to fight mental illness.
    Who is Brandon Marshall?
    Alex: Correct again.
    I’ll take Crazy Sports Team owners for $600.
    Alex: This owner sued the local city paper on a story he never read and his picture is often sketched over with devil horns.
    Who is Dan Snyder?
    Alex: In a week 7 NFL matchup, this team will travel to DC and lay waste to the Redskins.
    Who are da Bears?
    Alex: Oh, I’m sorry, that’s incorrect Nick, we were looking for THE Bears, not DA Bears.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Can I have Seahawks -6.5 over Cards for tomorrow.

    And JK, sounds like you may need a Medrol DosePak Rx if you don’t have one already.

  • Pick #1- Arizona +6.5. The number of times Seattle has won on the road by >6 in the last 11 tries? 0. Same Seattle team went into Arizona in the opener last season and lost outright by 4. Oh and there’s that little 58-0 beatdown Seattle put on the Cards at the end of last season. Slight revenge game on a short week. 6.5 is a bad number in my opinion. 3.5/4 is the better number.

  • Week 8 Picks

    It’s been a struggle so far this year so it is time to turn to the MAC and try to start the long journey to get above the red line. Funny thing while I was exploring cyberspace this week, did you know there is actually a cheddarbay.com? I had to laugh when I saw it because yes I am a Florida Gators fan after that last bowl game. Then I clicked into the site…yeah…we need to pool some money and take that name over.

    WKU (Loss) – When Bobby Petrino goes interviewing shortly I hope an AD pulls a tape of this game. A comically bad performance in a game they could have put away in the 2nd quarter.

    All Play – Clemson (+3) over FSU – When in doubt take the points and the better QB.

    Buffalo (-20) over UMass – A friendly reminder to Joe Banner to please save a 6th or 7th round pick for Branden Oliver. I love this kid.

    NIU (-15.5) over CMU – The Home/Away splits with NIU will make your head hurt. This is a MUCH better team on the road and Central still is not good at football.

    Bears (PK) over Redskins – With all the uncertainty surrounding the Browns QB spot next year and the sheer amount of possible 1st round options would it be crazy to offer one of our first round picks to Washington for Cousins? Will Washington ever get better value? This has bothered me all week…is Cousins not a competent younger Hoyer? Never mind…just bank the money and throw it all at Cutler.

    Essay Pick

    Sometimes you have to get a little reckless. This essay qualifies as reckless.

    Common opponents are 33-10.

    They need a break. The tide has to turn eventually.

    Last road win was October 18, 2008.

    Last FBS win was November 26, 2010.

    The theme of this game is AVENGE DOUG PENNO!

    I am still bitter about the 2007 MAC Basketball Title game when Doug Penno threw up a ridiculous bank shot prayer after the Miami of Ohio grad working the time clock at Quicken Loans Arena made sure he had enough time to get his prayer off. It might be the most depressing live sporting event I have ever been at in my life. Really no real rivalry or animosity towards Miami and it’s hard to get mad at them when they have the most heart breaking defeat I have ever seen at any level of sport (The 2009 National Title game vs Boston is the most gut wrenching thing I have ever witnessed).

    Saturday it is time. Break out the champagne. The drought ends Saturday.

    Akron (-7) over Miami

    • If Browns manage to get Cousins I’ll take back all my punt the season posts and apologize; but they won’t because they’re punting this season.

      Ditto that on Brandon Oliver. And yes also on the MU/BU game in 09.

  • bupalos

    Booooo…. The Indy-Denver matchup is much the more interesting…and personally interesting to Browns fans.

    • took a look at all these: broncos at colts, fsu at clemson, usc at nd, and ucla at stanford. initially i liked the peyton returns game too but after i checked out how fsu/clemson rank on both sides of the ball i feel pretty good with it.

      • I like the FSU/Clemson selection. I’m pretty much going to guarantee we’ll see very close to a 50/50 split in action which is always a good thing. Having 80+% on one side (OSU/Browns) every week seems like a waste of time. DEN/Indy is intriguing as well but either one is a good idea imo.

  • acto

    ****AP**** and essay
    FSU -3 over Clemson I know I have a bit of a penchant for belittleing the importance of a Fricasseed Quarterback. This time I am jumping on the band wagon, (thank you Carrie Nation) and supporting a quarterback. Although I shall only support him in college, talent changes when being pursued by very fast big uglies. Jameis Winston and Tajh Boyd are both terrific. I am going with the faggot on this one. (Do not get up in arms, I learned long ago that a faggot is a cigarette in the Kings English. So Winston/cigarette/faggot is my choice for this pick.) I like Boyd too so I would not be angry if the Browns used a 6th round pick on either one of these talented young men. Clemson is terrific at getting into the backfield and disrupting or ending plays, I am confident that the staff at FSU will have Winston tastes good like a cigarette should ready for their attacks. I only saw about ten minutes of Clemson’s gap jumping defense and I loved it, but if you live by the elongated cutlery, you die by the elongated cutlery. FSU has the talent to take on the gap jumps and blow them off the ball.
    My only caveat here is that FSU is not terrific in pass protection. If Clemson could get a lead and then force FSU into passing situations the Tiger pass ruch could extinguish even the last burning ember of Winston’s chances.
    I am of course, at least a little worried about Grady Jarrett and Vic Beasley. However as I see this game shaping up, they will be going against talent they have yet to see and the FSU game plan shall have the ball flying over their heads before they make their famous second moves.

    Cowboys +2.5 over Eagles
    Miami -8.5 over North Carolina
    UCF +13 over Teddy Bilgewater and Louis
    Rice -17.5 over New Mex State
    MSU -26.5 over the beloved Boilermakers

    • pforever

      see how easy it was for you to get on my good side? (fricasseed) quarterbacks are the best.

  • cwonder23

    AP: Clemson +3 vs FSU
    Ole Miss +8.5 vs LSU
    Bears PK @ Wash
    Eagles -2.5 vs ‘Boys
    Titans +4 vs 49ers
    Essay: Miami (FL) -8.5 @ UNC

    Me: “Hey, what’s your name?”
    Cheddar Bay: “Cheddar Bay”
    Me: “That’s nice, you look like a Cheddar Bay. We’re all in the football picking business. Let me tell you why I suck at picking football games. Let’s say I go into a week of picks, and let’s say I’m even remotely confident in my picks. Well then I get all excited. I’m like Jojo the idiot circus boy with a pretty new pet.”

    [reaches down and picks up a sheet with this week’s lines]

    Me: “Now, the pet is my potential Lobsterfest. Hello there pretty little pet, I love you. And then I stroke it, and I pet it, and I massage it. Hehe I love it, I love my little naughty pet.”

    [pokes the line sheet playfully]

    Me: “You’re naughty! And then I take my pet and I go….”

    [Makes ripping noises as he tears up sheet into tiny pieces]

    Me: [Wailing loudly, making all of Cheddar Bay look] “Aaaaahhhhh, I killed it! I killed this week’s picks! And that’s when I blow it. That’s when people like us have gotta forge ahead, Cheddar Bay. Am I right?”
    Cheddar Bay: “God, you suck.”


    Seriously, I’m pretty bad at this stuff. Miami has covered 4 straight and North Carolina is 1-4 ATS this year. I basically know nothing about either team but have to take some chances. Miami has proven they can put up points and UNC looks like they are waiting for next year. Miami moving to 6-0 would be impressive. Good luck to everyone this week. Sorry to any Canes’ fans as they will probably end up losing this game after I just picked them.

    • There’s no surer path to Cheddar righteousness than incorporation of Tommy Boy dialog in your essay. Well played.

  • Skanky Leg time. 17-7-2 year to date, 2-1-1 last week. As Kanick pointed out last night, La Laff would’ve fit the profile and won outright as a 3 pt dog.

    NCAAF:

    1. UCONN +13.5 v Cincy (Line opened Cincy -16, now -13.5. 69% of public on CIN) Pick: UCONN
    2. CMU -15.5 v N Ill (Line opened N Ill -17, now -15.5. 66% of public on N Ill) Pick: CMU

    NFL:

    1. NYJ +4 v NE (Line opened -6, now -4. 76% of public on NE) Pick: NYJ
    2. TENN +4 v SF (Line opened SF -6, now -4. 71% of public on SF) Pick: TENN

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