#CheddarBay Week 7: Jags +27.5 at Broncos.

* THIS WEEKS LINES ARE LINKED HERE.
* THIS WEEK’S ALL PLAY IS JAGUARS +27.5 AT BRONCOS (4PM SUNDAY, CBS).
* IPAD/MOBILEDEVICE USERS:  THE STANDINGS ARE LINKED HERE.
* DOUBLE CHECK MY ENTRY OF YOUR PICKS ON THIS SPREADSHEET.

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Good work Cheddars:  after last week’s 54% performance and 60% hits on essays, we as a group are demonstrably imbued with, at the minimum, the casino prowess of Fredo after his time with Moe Green.  Still room for improvement though.  Just stay away from cocktail waitresses two-at-a-time and Johnny Ola.

Screen Shot 2013-10-09 at 2.36.54 AM

Only six figures?

That 54% win rate was enhanced by one of the worst beats in recent memory, enough said on that.  So fate smiled on the Cheddars (You went 35-16 for OSU.), why not?  It was well-earned after that rocky start.

We had a suggestion from Matt Borcas for the historical all-play this week.  The Broncos-Jags game is the largest opening point spread in NFL history.  The prior biggest was Bucs at Steelers in 1976.  That was Tampa’s inaugural year, 0-14, was the 13th game, and -no- the Bucs did not cover; final score 42-0 Steelers.

Congrats to Architect Art Vandelay on his Lobsterfest.  Nice to see the ballsy “-39.5” pick rewarded although, it was Oregon.  And obviously he benefitted from one of the baddest beats in recent memory but, well, that’s the casino business.

Wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t mention that one among us has been perfect with his weekly essay and not coincidentally he is enjoying great success in the standings.  One would do well to read this not-named player’s takes.

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@CLEVTA’S SKANKY FISH PICKS.

<a class='bp-suggestions-mention' href='http://603brown.com/members/clevta/' rel='nofollow'>@ClevTA</a>'s Skanky Fish Picks.

A minor setback last week, going 2-3 (although MTSU was a push if you bet it).  The Wake Forest pick was eerie… there sure did not look to be any reason to like Wake in that game but someone knew something.

Year-to-date Skanky is 15-6-1 ATS so take heed when ClevTA throws out this week’s Skankies.  Here they are:

NCAAF:

1. Memphis +9.5 v Houston (Line opened Hou -11.5, now 9.5. 76% of public on HOU) Pick: Memphis
2. UTSA -1.5 v Rice (Line opened Rice -3.5, now UTSA -1.5. 66% of public on Rice) Pick: UTSA
3. PSU +3 v Michigan (Line opened Mich -3, now either 3/2.5 depending on site. 74% on Mich) Pick: PSU
4. KSU +18 v Baylor (Line opened Baylor -20, now 18/17. 71% of public on Baylor) Pick: KSU

Nothing in NFL this week.

mom1_2

Rehired.

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More Mom.

Mom was [understandably] [rightfully] horrified at my stealth recording of her which I published in this space a couple weeks ago.  She specifically wishes all to know that she does have a chin.  In support of this, here is a photo circa pre-Kanick.  Of course she’s been re-hired.

Just one more personal/mom anecdote.  Received a letter from her today and it turns out I got Woody Hayes’ autograph on a July 4th in C-bus way back when:

… Woody was at the 4th of July parade watching from Uncle Bob’s yard — corner of Northwest Blvd. and Brandon Rd.  Woody lived a couple streets up off Brandon.  The year was probably 1966.  Grandfather had you go over and ask for the autograph.  So, it really belongs to you.

And here it is.

woody

Woody was just watching a parade…

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All righty, that’ll do with Kanick’s childhood for now; good picking all.

  • cleinmpls

    I will take the Colts tonight

  • bupalos

    Wow Sean Payton with the HORRIBLE endgame. His players won it for him twice and he went ahead and made them win it a 3rd time. 3rd time’s a charm.

    Haven’t watched Payton closely… But he goes to the top of my quant dummies list.

  • I’ll take the Jags for the all-play and we’ll call it an essay too. The main consideration here is that both teams have every incentive to keep this game as short as possible, so 27.5 is just silly. Look at the Broncs schedule and find the loses. It’s really hard. But next week is as good a shot as any, so you have to think Fox is going to be coaching this week, in an unloseable game, with more emphasis on running the clock than anything else. He ran it up on the panthers from understandable spite, but there is no such motivation here. No doubt Jacksonville would like to see this one end as soon as possible too. So with say 20% fewer plays than you might see in any other Bronco’s game, the spread is, as I say silly. The only wildcard here being Manning looking for free TD passes, but we’ll run with it.

    I’ll close out the week with the saints too.

  • acto

    jk, Sorry to bother you, but I did not receive the point for the Neb win. The table has me 1 point low.
    Thank you

    • yepper a bit a time delay on the updates this weekend.. should be up to date now.

      • acto

        Sorry jk, Next time I shall be more patient, love you and appreciate your taking command of our fun game picking stuff!

        • The Cheddar Goddz have surely noticed this egregious scoreboard gazing. #fadingActo might be the plan this weekend.

          • acto

            Frownie,why do you suggest such an attack?
            I live a sullen, vacuous, lonely, bed ridden existence that one may barely call a Life, I try to hide my misplaced yearnings for CLTIL and P_4 and I am grateful that Bryan does not kick my ass as I muddle through my picks. Now you are trying to pit everyone against me?? Why? Because you still cannot get over the fact that I lost my rental car? I know you were very close to punching my lights out, so this year we shall be riding in LeBron’s limo.

          • I might be guilty of overestimating my own powers from time to time, but I know that punching your lights out is something I could never ever do. To punch one’s lights out, there would of course have to be a light on in the first place.

          • acto

            Funny stuff, love you Frownie!

  • Bevilacqua

    Bevilacqua

    Earlier picks:

    Northern Illinois (-22.5) over Akron (L), Oregon (-14.5) over Washington (W), Northwestern (+10) over Wisconsin (L), Clemson (-25.5) over Boston College (L)

    All Play: Broncos (-27.5) over Jaguars
    Essay: Saints (+1.5) over Patriots

    The Patriots have been winning some games, but I don’t see how Tom Brady can continue to work his magic against a quality opponent in the Saints. The only advantage the Patriots have is they’re playing at home, but I don’t see that holding up in the end. The Saints will win by at least a FG. ESPN even posted a report this morning saying that many within the organization are growing frustrated with Gronk’s unwillingness to play. This reeks of the typical high school gossip that somehow passes as sports news these days, but it’s enough to give me a reason to bet on the Saints. I hate Belichick.

  • Vikings. Peterson will be a man possessed.

    Broncos. Jags need to score 21 to cover. Won’t happen.

    Eagles. Chip scores.

    $$$ saints. $$$
    Essay to come.

    • No idea how the Patriots haven’t been able to put up points this year. averaging next to nothing compared to past performances. I don’t really care that their receivers are a bunch of young nobodies, because when you’re playing with Tom Brady, you don’t have those problems.

      I feel like the patriots as we knew them are gone. The decade of domination in the east and the superbowl wins are in the rearview. The road is being paved (albeit slowly) for Josh McDaniels to take over once Hoodie decides to hang it up. Brady is still Brady, but his best years are behind him.

      The Saints are getting points here, strictly because they’ve got to go on the road? Their defense has been lightyears ahead of where they were a year ago, and getting their head coach back has allowed them to click on all cylinders when they’ve got the football.

      Gimme the Saints to put up a whole bunch of points. They’ll give up their fair share today too. But New England’s youthful bunch of receivers won’t be able to keep up with Brees and the gang.

  • cleinmpls

    Seattle -13.5 essay

    Bounce back game for the Seahawks at Qwest against a shitty opponent? This has blowout written all over it. Chris Johnson won’t be able to run anywhere, and with the Titans qb situation, forget about it. Seahawks will be ready to roll and they won’t take their foot off the gas. A beat up Seattle squad went toe to toe on the road with a good colts team. These guys will have a chip on their shoulder coming in, and Russell Wilson will throw for 250 and 3 tds.

  • oxr

    The wheels are starting to fall off the bus a little bit over here as I struggle to reman above .500. Yesterday: UTSA (L)

    All-Play: Jags +27.5 over Broncos – reverse jinx from Denver fan. Assuming the Brock Osweiler experience sets in at some point and the Jags recover some ground.

    Kansas City -9 over Oakland.
    Cowboys -6.5 over Redskins.
    Saints +1.5 over Pats.

    Essay: Eagles -1.5 over Bucs – I guess I’m deciding to believe in Nick Foles, or at least more than I believe in Mike Glennon. Tampa Bay has lost narrowly to a couple of bad teams, been stomped by the Patriots, and apparently caught the Saints on an off-day, so based on record this could be another close one – but two points counts as close, right? The bet is that Glennon will continue to have growing pains (albeit against a subpar defense) now that one of his two viable receivers is inactive. Foles has shown some level of ability in the past and shouldn’t be called upon to work miracles in this one; the question is whether Chip Kelly can wear down the generally unheralded Tampa Bay defense given (we devoutly hope) a couple of turnovers. Oh yeah, and everyone in the Tampa facility has staph and they apparently despise their lunatic coach, so there’s that.

  • Steelers +2.5

    #cowherpower

  • cleinmpls

    Eagles -1.5
    Rams +7.5
    Jags +27.5 for the all play

  • Zarathustra

    Steelers +2.5 over @Jets (essay)
    Geno went on the road and won in what is a traditionally very tough place to do so. I am a big-time geno detractor but I can’t take that away from him. Of course that wasn’t the same Falcons team that has been so good at home, but he won. Now everybody is on the geno smith bandwagon which means you should expect no less than three turnovers today. I watched many wvu games the last few years and have seen him become unglued facing confusing defenses–see back to back years against Syracuse. The steelers will confuse him.

    Why the 0-4 Steelers? They haven’t forced a turnover all year. That is a trend that even the worst d in the league could not sustain. They are due and are playing geno smith (see above.). Speaking of being due, the steelers are due for a win. That is hardly a compelling reason in and of itself to wager on a team in the nfl, but in their favor is the fact that they have fought from behind in every game and came up short. Again a trend that is probably not sustainable for even a team that lacks the institutional memory of winning that the steelers have.

    Also, the Steelers have not lost off a bye since 2007. Maybe this is another trend to fade, but I won’t. This bye week Tomlin benched players (mike Adams and zingy hood) and took away the toys in the rec room. They are hungry for a win. I’ll gladly take points.

  • Kanick- plz give me Buffalo +7.5 and remove Carolina altogether. Line is 4.5 now. Can’t not take it. Thanks

  • bupalos

    Eagles
    Browns

    I’m taking the bait with the eagles. And not that I need to prove anything here, but I am once again showing my moral resolve by riding with the beloved cmfb.

    The ginger cringer vs. that front? Ok maybe I am proving something here.

  • Deputyglitters

    Broncos -27.5
    Cardinals +12
    Colts -2
    Saints +1.5
    Bengals -7.5
    Washington St -1.5. (This pick is in 20 min late). Didn’t have cell service-in Austin at the ACL festival.

    No essay

    • acto

      Deputy, I am surprised you did not mention your ACL venture, my former SSO and current best friend always gets free passes to everything Austin from her salt miners. Gave away 5 full ride passes this year, some to annoying relatives. I would prefer they go to an almost complete stranger. If you want free stuff, let me know next year. Cheddar strangers are the best strangers! If you see a sasquatch today, with a pink shirt and an old Browns hat, say hello, I will buy you a beer. Also, put your phone into wifi mode, we (TWC) have WAP’s with huge amounts of bandwidth everywhere at Zilker this weekend.

      • Deputyglitters

        Shit!!!!!!! Saw this wayyyyyy too late. I’m not on top of things this weekend. At the arcade bar?

        • acto

          When they started cancelling stuff, my buddy, among others started booking local venues. She is about to tear down a couple of famous bars, so she left them open for bands that just wanted to play their sets and fans who wanted to listen and buy surplus alcohol. (Sad for me, I was going to get most of that booze.) Were you the guy at Franz Ferdinand around 11:00pm last night? (That club was the great Antone’s, now it is called “Start a Fire”, or something like that. I was dancing like a drunken monkey, right in front of the stage with my perfunctory pink shirt and Browns’ hat. Were you jumping around like Curious George on a pogo stick? Then you hit my hip and flipped over the stairs. (I assumed it was you because of the BAD ASS Leroy Kelly shirt.) Too loud to speak.
          I hope you and you friends enjoyed the Shiner Bocks!

          • Deputyglitters

            Can’t take credit for that badassery. My wife and I spent the day in line outside Moody’s theatre and ended up in the middle, two rows from the stage at Atoms for Peace. Very worth the wait. Will definitely make sure to put out the word the next time we are in Austin. It was our first time and we loved it. Moving to Denver in 10 days and have never been there either. Hope it is just as good.

          • acto

            Sorry DG, Denver it is not as terrific as Austin, when I was a puppy I followed a former paramour to Denver, it was fantastic in the summer, (summer lasts about a week), then it became way too cold, too cold blasting past the “why do humans live here” level. It was 34 years ago and I am still waiting for my reproductive appendages to descend.

          • Says the guy who refused to wear a coat in Cleveland last January.

          • acto

            Not that it is anything to look at, but…. if you come to Austin from Denver, my picture is on the wall at the steakhouse in Texline. I was coming home from racing in the mountains, I was young, very skinny and finishing that steak was not a problem. I could have eaten the whole steer.

          • acto

            Dep, I thought it was you, so I bought 11 Shiner Bocks’s for some other group hanging with a guy in a Leroy Kelly shirt.
            Money well spent to honor Leroy!

  • Woo hoo. Took PSU via tweet to Kanick earlier. Now for the rest of my picks…

    RickWFNY-

    PSU +3 over Michigan

    Raiders +9 over Kansas City (I’m out of my mind. Call it a hunch.)

    Vikings -2.5 over Panthers (Can’t fathom what Perterson is going through. Couldn’t imagine betting against him.)

    Bengals -7.5 over Buffalo

    All Play:

    Denver -27.5 over Jacksonville (After riding the Manning train for weeks, it is tough to pick against him. I won’t do it this week, but I certainly won’t make it my essay either.)

    Essay:

    Browns +3 over Detroit

    Am I just crazy? Does this really look like the best game to me? I’ll take the three points at home. Joe Haden vs an 80% Calvin Johnson? I like Haden. I think the Browns have enough to slow the Lions down That only leaves a matter of the Browns scoring. I don’t like the match-up between Lauvao and Fairly or Suh, but I think the Browns will gameplan for that.

    I also think the return of at least one LB (Sheard or Groves) will help tremendously as Mingo gets some rest and allows a more veteran presence against Reggie Bush.

    At the very least, I think the defense is enough to keep this one close. And there is no way I have confidence in some of these HUGE spreads this week.

  • pateslvrblk

    All play Broncos -27.5
    Saints 1.5 over New England
    *** Colts -2 over Chargers
    No essay week

  • cheddarclay

    Ole Miss (+7) / aTm

    • cheddarclay

      Texans (-7.5) / Rams
      Jags (+27.5) / Broncos
      Titans (+13.5) / Seahawks
      Eagles (-1.5) / Bucs

      Skins (+6.5) / Cowboys

      Cowboys gotta bounce right? Like the Skins coming off a bye, I think it’s exactly what they needed. Thinking there has to be some inflation in the line due to last week. 6.5 seems like a lot for a divisional game, would Dallas really be fave if game in Wash? Gimme the points and what should be RG3 best game of the year.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    I’ll take Texas a&m -7 for a point. Rest to come tomorrow am.

    • Harbaugh Handshakes

      Previous Picks:
      Chicago (L)
      Texas A&M -7
      Philly -1.5 @ Tampa Bay***Essay
      Broncos -27.5 vs Jacksonville
      Dallas -6.5 vs Wash
      New Orleans +1.5 @ New England

      Tampa Bay seems to have completely given up on Schiano and are not going to put forward any effort to get him a win. Tampa is running out a rookie 3rd rd pick out at QB, so I don’t expect Tampa to score when Philly can stack the line and dare the rookie to try to beat them. Meanwhile Philly still has nice weapons in Jackson and Mccoy even with Vick out this week Foles looked good in relief. McCoy should have a big game and as long as Foles doesn’t make any big mistakes Philly should cruise to victory.

  • late picks but feeling good

    broncos +27.5 (hate lines like this)
    georgia tech +6
    bowling green +11
    texas a&m -7
    eagles -2
    boise state -7

    the loss of chuckie keeton for the season isn’t just sad for utah state, it’s sad for college football. keeton is one of the most entertaining players in college football, and this almost assuredly means he’ll be returning for his senior season. there was a good chance had he played all year healthy, he would have declared for the draft. and maybe that ends up being a net gain for aggies; with a senior keeton and a bunch of other quarterbacks leaving the mwc next year, usu could have a better shot at winning the conference next year. but seven points is way too low a line against a team without its best player. i’d have boise favored even if keeton was playing, and this team is likely badly deflated at this point. this isn’t a great boise state team, but it should have no trouble winning this one by 10 or more.

    • broncos should be -27.5 obviously that was dumb of me

      • and georgia tech is +7 now +6 so basically i can’t read or write today

  • mattborcas

    Michigan -3 over PSU
    Texas A&M -7 over Ole Miss
    Browns +3 over Lions
    Jags +27.5 over Broncos
    Panthers +2.5 over Viikes

    • acto

      Mr Borcas, sorry that I criticized your all play pick. It was a very difficult choice and perhaps that is the essence of the all play.

    • ESSAY- Colts -2 over Chargers

      I’m swimming with the fishes here, but two points is a pittance and Andrew Luck just seems like the quarterback who’d win his first MNF game. T.Y. Hilton is lethal and slippery and figures to improve on last week’s performance against the league’s worst pass defense, as does the ever-dependable Reggie Wayne. Ryan Mathews didn’t practice this week and I expect him to be even worse than usual, causing SD to pass the ball a little too much and leading to some classic Rivers INTs. Hell, Trent might even clear 3.5 yards per carry, what with SD’s shaky run defense. Colts 27, Chargers 20.

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts getting things started in Week 7:

    Washington +14.5

    Big NFL action coming tomorrow!!

    • DQuatts

      Mississippi +7

      • DQuatts

        Minnesota -2.5
        Jacksonville +27.5
        San Diego +2
        Washington +6.5 $$$

        This is exactly what Washington needs…a HUGE game against a division rival on Sunday night. And, to add to the equation, the Redskins are coming off a bye, and Dallas just battled their hearts out in a losing effort last Sunday against a very tough Broncos team. A little needed rest for RGIII with the bye week, and a chance for Shannahan and Co. to re-sync their strategies. I think America is in for another shootout in the Big D! RGIII throws for (3) and runs for (1)! Skins! Skins! Skins!

  • NCState -7 over Syracuse
    Michigan -3 over Penn State
    Stanford -9 over Utah
    Boise State -7 over Utah State
    TAMU -7 over Ole Miss

    Essay: Eagles -1.5 over Bucs

    I live in Tampa, so this is my entire essay: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

    You have no idea how much the Bucs despise Schiano. There’s at least a 10% chance Bucs players actually refuse to go on the field at Ray Jay during this game. The amount of hatred is so palpable there is no reason why any of them should show up and give a damn. 0-16 is so in play here you have no idea. The spread on this game should at least be double digits. They have so quit on their coach and this team I can’t even tell you.

    I submitted late so none of you would steal this game from me. But this is a gift from the gambling Gods. Trust me.

    • hey brother, need a jags/bronks pick; dropping tamu absent direction, kk?

      • Ugh, forgot.

        Yup, drop TAMU. My bad. Too much beer.

        • acto

          collin, you have obviously taken leave of your senses!
          To quote the title of the second best song from the second greatest band in the world the “Schlitz Quarts”, “There is No Such Thing as Too Much Beer”!

      • And gimme the Broncos tomorrow too. This is such a coin flip but POINTS ARE FUN LET’S ROOT FOR POINTS!!

  • Bevilacqua

    Bevilacqua

    Northern Illinois (-22.5) over Akron

    Oregon (-14.5) over Washington

    Northwestern (+10) over Wisconsin

    Clemson (-25.5) over Boston College

  • Concierge

    Jags +27.5
    South FLa +5 ESSAY
    UNLV -7.5
    MIAMI OHIO +3.5

    South FLA and Uconn are two of the worst teams in college football. With that being said South Florida just has more athletes and their D has been playing better. SFLA is coming of a big win against CIncy where they were huge dogs and UCONN hasnt won a game yet. Uconn is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games so I love getting 5 points as a road dog in a spot where I expect the Bulls to win this one outright.

  • bupalos

    Kstate and UTSA for bup in professional football. I’ll pick the NFL tomorrow.

    • acto

      That sir is an unfair accusation!
      UTSA is only semi-pro.

  • oxr

    UTSA -1.5 over Rice for today.

  • jmacdaddio(@jmacdaddio)

    Jags +27.5 over Broncos
    VA Tech -9.5 over Pitt
    Maryland -7 over Virginia
    Cowboys -6.5 over Redskins
    Eagles -1.5 over Tampa Bay

    Essay: Jets – 2.5 over Steelers

    I watched the J-E-T-S this past Monday due to fantasy football implications. I found their resilience impressive and have confidence they’ll be able to carry on without Kellen Winslow. Pittsburgh is in a rebuildiing cycle only they and their fans haven’t accepted it yet. The Giants at 0-6 look better than the 0-4 Steelers – they can move the ball, put plays together, and should rack up a few wins once their luck changes. The Jags finally look like they’re able to score points (and don’t appear to have the clubhouse disarray that Tampa Bay has – the Jags’ main problem is that they stink). I haven’t seen any indication from the Steelers that they’re moving in the right direction.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Oklahoma -14.5 Texas
    MSU -9.5 Indiana
    Wisconsin -10 NW
    (AP) Broncos -27.5 Jags

    Back in a bit

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Chiefs -9 Raiders
      **Browns +3 Lions
      It’s different now. Holmgren tried to tell us that once, but this regime is showing us. The biggest difference is the coaching staff. Chud felt genuine to me on day one; the players can sense that. Norv and Ray are good at what they do. They work with what they have at the moment. Norv handled Hoyer perfectly. (I’m not going to cry. I’m not going to cry.) Poor Norv is earning every penny he makes. (Hang in there buddy, next year you’re going to have it GOOD.)

      The front 7! And Sheard is back? Heavenly. I think D’Qwell deserves a lot of credit for his leadership as the senior member of those hellions. Plus Skrine’s inspiring play lately (better coaching plus maturity?) has been a really nice bonus. The D and the coaching staff will keep this one close – and a little special teams magic is always waiting in that hat.

      Three wins in 3 games, how long has it been? Most of these guys haven’t felt that particular kind of sustained high, and they’ll work to keep feeling it. We’ll need the 3 points, but I think we can eek out another one at home.

  • clevelandfrowns

    I’ll take Buffalo -12.5 over W. Mich and LSU -7.5 over Florida for the colleges this week. Will be back this afternoon with four NFL picks including an essay.

    • clevelandfrowns

      2-0 with UBuff and LSU yesterday. 4 NFL’s today.

      ESSAY: Steelers +2.5 over Jets

      The Steelers won’t finish 0-16 and they know that this is one of the most winnable games on their schedule. Coming off a bye week and an embarrassing trip to London, they get this one in Snoopy Stadium against the Jets flying too high off an inflated Monday Night win. If you didn’t happen to notice the personnel that the depleted Falcons trotted out in the Georgia Dome last week on the defensive side of the ball, let me assure you that it was an atrocious lot. Atlanta was also missing their starting LT, and were pushed around on both sides of the ball. The Steelers won’t be this week. New LT Levi Brown should help, and as much as both teams will likely struggle to run the ball today, the Steelers should have a better time moving it through the air. I like Geno Smith, but Steve Serby has lost his mind — http://nypost.com/2013/10/08/jets-have-gone-from-clowns-to-contenders/ — This is still a Dick Lebeau defense against a rookie quarterback. The Steelers haven’t benefited from a single turnover yet this season, luck that should start to even out. 60% of the public on the Jets here. But mostly I like a locker room full of embarrassed vets with Super Bowl rings to come out and get one off a bye week.

      Will also take:

      Browns +3 over Lions because I am an idiot.

      Jags +27.5 because, woof.

      And I’ll swim with the fish on Saints +1.5 over Pats because Mangini taught Rob Ryan how to beat Belichick and Brady. Plus the interior of NE’s defense has disappeared thanks to injuries. DT Tommy Kelly was having a better season than Wilfork by credible accounts, and he’s out today too.

      • DAMMIT ROB RYAN IS WORTHLESS WITHOUT THE MANGENIUS HOLDING HIS HAND.

        • I mean, I coulda been the guy complaining about how Weeds blew up his Lobsterfest.

          Anyway, if I had an extra pick I’d be really inclined to swim with the fish again tonight on the Colts. If Andrew Luck is all he’s cracked up to be he’ll stick it to the sharp-types in his Monday Night debut.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine

    Earlier winner: Rutgers +18.5 (essay)

    Kansas State +18 / Baylor – Every week there is a game like this. I feel like Vegas is begging me to take Baylor. The amazing offense, 100 points per game, Art Briles destroying his foes with laser beams fired out of his 3rd eye, etc. But Baylor only needs to win by 18. Baylor is only laying 18!! Of course they can cover that, no problem, piece of cake… (quietly circles K State)
    Kentucky +28 / Alabama
    BC +25 / Clemson
    Jaguars +27.5 / Broncos
    Indiana +9.5 / Michigan St.
    All dogs this weekend

  • CapitalGG

    Week 7:

    All-play: Jaguars +27.5 @ Broncos: Are the Jags the worst NFL team of all-time? I’ve seen P.Manning in this situation before. He shortens the game and doesn’t intentionally beat up an inferior opponent. Broncos by around 3 TDs here. (hate, hate, hate this game).

    1. Ball St. -14 v. Kent St.: Lembo! Wenning! At Home! MACtion!
    2. UTSA -1.5 v. Rice: Stanky Fish play of the week. Headline: Roadrunners eat food.
    3. Texas A&M -7 @ Mississippi: Ole Miss is a dumb football team. I forgot that when I picked them to win at Auburn. Not making that mistake this week.
    4. BYU -7 v. Georgia Tech: The option attack is always dangerous, but BYU is better and 3 time zones from the ATL.

    Real facts of Science: I’m terrible at picking NFL games. Like if the rules didn’t require it, I would avoid NFL games like the plague. I’m 0-3 in non-All-Play NFL picks this year. I would be better off picking at random than applying whatever “logic” I’ve been using.

    So of course now that I’ve battled back to shouting distance of the red line, I’m going to essay up an NFL pick this week. It’s a win-win. I either get Cheddar points or I’m a jinx and Stiller fan disappears for the rest of the season.

    What we have here is a classic over reaction line. Pittsburgh hasn’t played a game in 2 weeks having lost to the Vikings in London then getting the bye week. The Jets got a big Monday night win in Atlanta on a late field goal after blowing a huge lead in the 2nd half.

    This line started Pittsburgh -1.5 and quickly moved the other way and big time! Why? It seems the public thinks the Jets are suddenly a good team because they beat a reeling Falcons team on Monday night. So they should win on a short week against a rested and desperate Steelers team? Not so fast my friend. So, Steelers +2.5 at “J-E-T-S suck! suck! suck!”.

    Other plays:
    Oklahoma -14.5 @ Texas (1200)
    South Carolina -6.5 @ Arkansas (1220)
    Nebraska -14.5 @ Purdue (1200)
    Indiana +9.5 @ Michigan St.(1200)
    E. Michigan +7.5 @ Army (1200)
    Georgia -9 v. Missouri (1200)
    Memphis -9.5 @ Houston (1200)
    Navy +2.5 @ Duke (1230)
    Buffalo -12.5 @ W. Michigan (200)
    Ohio -18 v. C. Michigan (200)
    Troy -17.5 @ Georgia St. (330)
    Wyoming -16 v. New Mexico (330)
    Kansas St. +18 v. Baylor (330)
    Penn St +3 v. Michigan (500)
    MTSU +7 @ North Texas (700)
    Bowling Green +11 @ Mississippi St. (730)
    Utah St. +7 v. Boise St. (800)

    Eagles -1.5 @ Buccaneers
    Carolina +2.5 @ Vikings
    Saints +1.5 @ Patriots
    Chargers +2 v. Colts

    • CapitalGG

      And I forgot to mention the disruption of the Kellen Winslow suspension in my essay.

      • acto

        CGG, perhaps you should reconsider, they are better off without Wack-job-Winslow.
        HIs father was a marshmallow soft, soccer flopper who made Vlade Divac look like Prometheus by comparison and the apple rolled far enough to pump himself full to the gills with the MachoCrazyJuice. . They should throw Kellen the hero/warrior/cluelesschump, soldier out of the NFL and into Iraq.

    • acto

      “Headline: Roadrunners eat food.”
      I am taking this as a good omen, A Roadrunner brazenly crossed in front of me while i was trying to pretend that I am still fast on my bicycle, I let out the obligatory “Beep Beep”, the Road runner looked at me with eyes of disdain and superiority, still chewing on an Eastern Diamondback Rattlesnake. Road runners eat any food they damn well please, and they look upon old, fat guys on bicycles with a wonderfully bemused insouciance. Love the team, Love the Campus, Love the Chumps in Charge and they gave me a terrific UTSA golf shirt. (XXL too!!)
      Vive la Helotes Road Runners!
      I shall be picking them every week until I miss the playoffs by 1 point.

  • @Washington St -1.5 vs Oregon St
    @Vikings -2.5 vs Carolina
    AP: @Denver -27.5 vs Jacksonville

    Essay:
    Michigan -3 @PSU

    I am taking Michigan fully expecting to lose. Michigan has looked like garbage all year and PSU usually comes up big in these types of games at home. Michigan actually was able to find a QB who looked worse as a passer than Denard. They are the Bengals of college football, you always expect them to be good and they end up Michiganing the bed. Why am I taking them again? I guess I will take them because all PSU has is a QB and names on the back of their jerseys.

  • All Play: Jacksonville +27.5

    Essay: Bob Stoops +14.5 over Mack Brown

    In the 13 years that Bob Stoops has been the coach at Oklahoma, he has won or shared eight conference titles. If you walked into a job interview as a football coach and could guarantee winning the conference 8 out of 13 years, the AD would jump at it. Think about it. Desperate drunk guys would get laid 62% of the time. That’s better than flipping a coin. BANK IT.

    It gets even better though. Since 2000…here are the (tries to keep from laughing) scores:

    Stoops 63- Mack 14
    Stoops 14- Mack 3
    Stoops 35- Mack 24
    Stoops 65- Mack 13
    Stoops 12- Mack 0 (yes, zip)
    Vince Young 45- Rhett Bomar 12 (and a transfer)
    Colt McCoy 28- Paul Thompson 10 (yeah, I had to look him up too)
    Bradford 28- McCoy 21 (Limas Sweed still sucks)
    McCoy/Shipley 45- Stoops and his “let ’em back in the game offense” 35
    One-handed Colt McCoy 16-Sam Bradford’s collarbone 13
    Stoops 28- Mack 20
    Stoops 55- Mack 17
    Stoops 63 -Mack “never got off the bus” 21 (in garbage time)

    So, in games where no one named “Colt” or “Vinsanity” are playing, Mack is 0-8 since 2000. This year’s squad is equally unimpressive. Change needs to come to the culture at the 40 Acres and Bob Stoops is going to have his way with Mack The Motivator again. Ohio State wouldn’t stand for this garbage.

    Others:

    Florida +7.5
    Texas A&M -7
    Washington State -1.5
    Browns +3

    • While I wasn’t expecting an actual upset by any stretch, that line seemed high. I think the woes in Austin were just so magnified lately that some have interpreted the horns to be Akron-caliber, especially after the officiating in Ames. Surprised, but not shocked that Big Game Bobby laid an egg, but kudos to Mack for getting it done.

  • munasrevenge

    Ball State (-14) vs Kent State (Hate to double up on Kent for MACtion, but they aren’t great this year while Ball State’s offense has been absolutely rolling. And as a Toledo fan I think Muncie is consistently one of the toughest road spots in the MAC.)
    Washington (+14.5) vs Oregon (A lot of points for an underrated defensive team. And this is the time of year when everyone starts fretting about 5 or 6 unbeatens by the end of the year and Oregon obliges by having an off game and losing to a team with a solidt D.)
    Connecticut (-5) vs USF (Not a whole lot of love for UConn, but they are off a bye and USF is SO bad. Cincy should be demoted to division II just for losing to them last week.)
    Stanford (-9) @ Utah (There’s been a lot of rumbling about Utah pulling off a big upset here, but even with a few injuries I just don’t see it. Utah hasn’t looked impressive in conference play at home so far, and Stanford is a big leap up in competition from Oregon State and UCLA.)

    -Jaguars (-27.5) vs Broncos (Kudos to the selection committee, I love this as an AP. I REALLY want to take the Broncos here, if anything because it would be fun to root for the cover, but I don’t see any reason to ever lay that many points in the NFL.)

    –Nebraska (-14.5) @ Purdue
    For my essays I love taking a solid if not “on-the-radar” offensive team (check) or pick against an awful team (check). Guys, Purdue is bad. Like, REALLY bad. Their close loss to ND gives immediate credibility to the annual claim that “ND is not as good as their reputation”. They can’t run, they can’t pass, they can’t really do anything. Nebraska has a tendency to score in bunches, and then the more concerning tendency to just as suddenly stop scoring at all. Even on the road, the lack of a solid Boilermaker offense should render that second point moot however, as Nebraska should be able to roll here.

  • cleinmpls

    NIU -22.5

  • South Florida Bulls +6
    Missouri Tigers +10
    LSU Tigers -7
    Jacksonville Jaguars +27.5
    Buffalo Bills +9.5
    ***Houston Texans -6.5

    Good team coming off three straight losses against an incredibly young team that has not played well nor should be expected to play well on the road. Bounce back big game for Schaub to help save his job. Lock. Load. Collect.

  • Trashycamaro

    Michigan -3 over @ Northwestern

    • michigan’s playing penn st, not northwestern in case that makes a diff. assuming mich is your pick unless you say different. thanks.

    • Trashycamaro

      Even better is Michigan -3 over PSU.

      • trashycamaro

        I love when coaches play for the FG. Repeatedly. Ugh. Oh well, almost guaranteed UM takes down OSU now.

        2. All Play: I have been burnt by both the Broncos and the Jags this year. Since the Broncos have yet to not cover and the Jags have yet to cover…

        @Den over Jax

        3. Colts -2 @ SD – have to take the magic while its running
        4 .Panthers +2.5 @ Vikings – feel guilty for picking this game
        5. @SEA -13.5 over Titans – I don’t like having two big favorites, but the Titans look really bad with Fitz in there
        6. Essay: @NYJ -2.5 over PIT – if it was away, I wouldn’t take it. And I am really worried about the Winslow suspension (took me 7 years or so before I was willing to write that sentence!). However, the Steelers have been miserable. The cure for their 31st in DVOA rushing attack IS NOT the 1st in DVOA run defense. While the NYJ d is a little more giving in the pass defense side, they are running out the #10 pass rush, and if there is anything we know about the Steelers (really for quite a while now) it is that their pass blocking is pretty bad, coming in at 25th this year in Football Outsiders rankings.

        Of course, the NYJ have not really been lighting it up on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 27th in offensive DVOA so far, but they are going against the 21st ranked unit in in PIT, which is a little extra bad at run D (24th), which of course plays into what passes for offensive strength in this game (NYJ 17th ranked rushing attack).

        While I am not a big fan of having the Jets give points, on a neutral field this line is still saying the Steelers would be favored. I am still looking for PIT slump to continue until they play the Browns, at which point I assume their offense will look like Denver’s for a week.

  • pforever

    fingers crossed:

    jags +27.5 broncos
    brownies +3 detroit
    Indy -2 chargers
    colorado +24.5 arizona state
    oregon -14 washington***
    UCLA -24.5 cal

    Oregon has won every game it has played this year by 40 or more points. Why in the world would this one be any different? I don’t really care that they are playing in Washington, or that the Huskies are 4-1. Oregon is a million times better than Washington. In fact, Washington has put together a winning record this year mostly by becoming Oregon-lite, and adopting Oregon’s fast-paced style. The problem is Oregon is a lot deeper than Washington, and an up tempo game plays right into their hands. Plus Washington is coming off of a tough loss to Stanford, and next week they face Arizona State in Tempe. The Huskies are tired already, and they are only 1/3 through the toughest stretch of their schedule. For Oregon, this is just another warm up game until they make it to Stanford on Nov. 7 (they will likely trounce Stanford too, but that’s a different pick).

  • squeekycleen

    Essay: Wisconsin: That Northwestern loss last week will go down in the annals of gambling ass rams, but I have certainly seen worse. Regardless, its just one game and the games continue. This week, Chicago’s real Big Ten team travels north to face the Wisconsin ground attack. While I find Northwestern entertaining, this cannot be considered the best scheduling spot given last week’s max effort prime time tilt. Throw in what looks like an absurdly high number and I’m interested. If this number isn’t designed to attract Wisco money, I don’t know what is. On Wisconsin!

    Regulars:
    Carolina Panthers
    Bowling Green
    Navy Midshipmen
    New England Patriots

    All play:
    Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Texas +14.5 v. Oklahoma
    NIU -22.5 v. Akron

    • Packers -3 at Ravens

      *Jaguars +27.5 at Broncos*

      ***Saints +1.5 at Patriots***
      This is two teams going in different directions, if you ask me. Nothing against Belichick or Brady, but I’m done being charmed by them. They’ve just gotten too cute with this Patriot Way and have found themselves lacking the weapons needed to exploit Tommy Terrific’s abilities. Call it getting bit by the injury bug, call it their window finally closing after all these years, but I’m calling it the Saints time. Obviously, there’s something to be said about making up for lost time, and that’s what Payton and Bree’s are doing.

      Maybe it’s just too much Frowns influence, but even without Mangini, I like Rob Ryan to give them fits on the other side of the ball too. In the pre-season, I predicted Broncos over Falcons in February, but I’m weighing the possibility that I have the wrong NFC South team acting as Peyton Manning’s final roadblock to multiple rings.

      Colts +2 at Chargers

      In a pick I think I’ll regret not making if I don’t Lobsterfest, the 0-4 team at least cover in New Jersey. That’s not an official pick though, because I’m forced to play that dreadful 27.5 point line, which is basically a coin flip, if you ask me.

  • pateslvrblk

    Here goes my first picks
    South Carolina -6.5 vs Arkansas
    Baylor -18 vs Kansas State
    Northwestern+10 vs Wisconsin

  • Zarathustra

    Pitt +9.5 over @Virginia Tech
    Rice +1.5 over Texas San Antonio
    Boise St -7 over @ Utah St.

  • Jdoepke

    I’m going to preface this with I’m not very confident coming off my first losing week of the season last week. I don’t love anything but I like plenty….not a good thing for a gambler.

    Here we go:
    Jags +27 (all play)
    Ole Miss +7
    Washington +14.5
    Stanford -9
    Akron + 22.5

    Mizzou +9 (essay)
    In addition to a ton of injuries this line has dropped from 10 to 7, so I will jump all over it at 9. I don’t know much about Mizzout but they are 5-0 but they haven’t played the type of competition that the Dawgs offer this weekend. I like some of my other picks better than this one but with only one essay pick winner thus far and the way favorites are smashing underdogs I’m going a little off the beaten path with this pick. Dogs are due, I’m calling Mizzou to keep it within the number. 27-21 Georgia.

  • hitthehorns:

    Mississippi +7
    Wisconsin -10
    Penn State +3
    All Play: Jaguars +27.5
    Essay: Chargers +2

    Letdown spot here for the Colts. Very hard fought victory over one of the best teams in the league last week. Now they have to go out west for a prime time, Monday night game versus a Chargers team that was just beaten by the Raiders. Ask any NFL fan this question: Will the Colts beat the Chargers by more than two points? My guess is 90% of the answers would be “YES.” It can’t be that easy, right? I like buying low and selling high, so give me the two points on the home dog.

    One more pick to come.

  • ArtVandelay

    NIU -22.5 vs Akron – As long as you are home to Swensons & Grandma I still love you Akron

    Kentucky +28 vs Bama – Kentucky has found a little something & Bama saves its energy

    Steelers +2.5 @ Jets – If I am wrong then the Steelers are 0-5

    Colts -2 @ Chargers

    AP: Jags +27.5 @ Broncos

    Essay: UCLA -25 vs Cal

    Revenge is a dish best served in the beautiful Rose Bowl. Cal crushed UCLA last year so I look for a little payback. Hundley had a terrible game last year & will look to redeem himself. The good news for him is Cals D is bad & is missing 7 or so starters. I read somewhere that they have 1 starter from their spring depth chart that will start this game. The Bears are giving up 45 per game & the Bruins are averaging 48 so look for the scoreboard to light up.

  • I will start with a couple of skank plays and gimme Johnny Football in prime time.

    Penn St +3 Mich
    UTSA -1.5 over Rice
    A&M over Ole Miss

    • Hope everyone was able to enjoy the great weather today! Fall golf is the best.

      Here are the rest of my plays:

      Packers -3 vs Ravens
      AP: Broncos over Jags
      EP: Eagles -1.5 vs Bucs
      I don’t like that I am taking another crappy nfl game for my essay pick, but I am fascinated by Tampa’s season. And it’s only getting crazier. This week, three bucs players were diagnosed with staph infection. This is the largest outbreak since 2008. There is just all types of bad juju around Tampa right now. None of the players trust Schiano at this point. Darrelle Revis must be asking himself why he signed to play for a nutjob coach.

      I heard Vick is out for this game, but I don’t think it matters. Chip Kelly is 1-3, and needs to stay relevant, he will win this game. If anything, this is a bet that Chip Kelly can outcoach Greg Schiano.

  • FTCMikeD

    ******@Wisc -10 over Northwestern
    TAMU -7 over @Ole Miss

    @Chiefs -9 over Raiders
    AP: @Broncos -27.5 !!! over Jags
    Saints +1.5 over @Pats
    Colts -1.5 over @Chargers

    ******The Badgers should roll over the Wildcats in this one. First, they had last week off, they will be well rested and ready to go in Madison. Second, did you see what the Buckeyes did on the ground against NWestern last week? That will happen again this weekend. Northwestern played their hearts out last week and lost a tough one. I don’t think they have the energy to stop the ground game of Bucky Badger and won’t cover.

  • Browns +3 vs Lions
    Panthers +2.5 vs Vikings
    Cardinals +12 vs 49ers
    Saints +1.5 vs Patriots
    Jaguars +27.5 vs Broncos (All Play)

    Nebraska -14.5 vs Purdue (Essay)

    Let’s take a look at some stats. Considerring Purdue is always losing, they still only rank 81st in the Nation in Passing yards. Add that they are 116th in the nation at rushing, when is this team going to score? Nebraska is much more efficient on offense and They are 15th in the nation in scoring. I just don’t see how this awful Purdue team is going to beat another big 10 team and should lose by more than 2 touchdowns to Nebraska. Hazel, enjoy that $$$ while they are paying you because this is not looking like the best career choice.

  • Jaguars +27.5 over Broncos (All Play)
    Penn St +3 over Michigan
    Kansas St +18 over Baylor ***
    Mississippi +7 over Texas A&M
    Patriots -1.5 over Saints
    Raiders +9 over Chiefs

    *** Baylor is 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS with an average score of 70 – 16. Why wouldn’t everyone take them every week if they are winning by 54 ppg. But the old wiley coach, Bill Snyder, and the Wildcats are at home and getting 18 points. Yes, please. Kansas State clearly isn’t as good as previous years but under veteran leadership they took Oklahoma State to the wire on the road last week. This Baylor team seems like a bettor’s favorite with a huge offense that will falter once they face a good defense (see West Virginia in 2012.) I don’t think the Wildcats are good enough to keep up for 60 minutes but can do enough to keep it within the 18. Go Purple.

  • 1. All Play: Jacksonville +27.5- The real key # is 34. That’s the goal for Jax to be down late in the 4th in order to achieve a backdoor.There has to be some sort of bulletin board material being the largest spread in history. I’ll take 44-17.

    2. K St +18. Stanky pick. I love Baylor more than anyone in this contest. Before the season I took two win totals- Auburn over7 and Baylor over8. Also took one Heisman wager- Seastrunk at 35-1. So yes I’m all in on Baylor. However, there comes a point when Vegas completely inflates a line bc they know the public will take them no matter what. To put how Baylor’s lines are inflated, just 3 weeks ago they were favored over Texas by 7. I checked two days ago and that line for the December game is 24.5. That’s ludicrous. I am going to take K St here to cover (and not win hopefully for my win total wager). Over 70% of the public is on Baylor yet the line dropped from 20 to 18/17. K St is 98th in the country in offensive plays per game so they will slow it down with their run game.

    3. Florida +7.5. Defense should keep them in it and LSU can’t stop anyone. I’ll take the hook. Line is down to 6.5 now and heavy public action on LSU.

    4. Memphis +10. Stanky pick, they have been frisky this year covering 3 out of the 4 weeks this season. They only lost by 7 against a good UCF team last week and Memphis was actually up by 7 early in the 4th when UCF recovered two fumbles for tds to win. Memphis is 10th in the country defensively on a yards/play basis, amazingly.

    5. Carolina +2.5 (essay) – Carolina are the masters of bouncing back after poor performances. Cam had a bad week last week but that was against a stout pass defense in Arizona. Minnesota doesn’t present anything near the Cardinals in terms of pass defense where they rank 2nd last. So Cassel is starting this week yet they sign Freeman so he knows his days are numbered. Minnesota is getting huge public backing for some unknown reason to me. Well actually I do know the reason, it’s because the public has tunnel vision and only sees what happens the prior week and uses that to base their thinking for the current week. Don’t know how many times it has to be said but this is a week to week league and what happened the prior week is irrelevant in most cases to this week. Carolina actually outgained Arizona on a yds/play basis last week, 5.98 to 4.46, but turnovers and a safety was the issue. I like Carolina to bounce back here.

    6. Pittsburgh +2.5. Look ahead line on Monday morning was Pitt -2.5 then after the MNF by the Jets the line has flipped by 5 points in favor of the Jets! Now Cromartie has an injury which will hamper him. I’ve backed Geno and the Jets almost every week this season but this is a tough spot for them. Coming off an emotional MNF game, Pitt off a bye and them hearing how bad and old they are and Lebeau scheming for two weeks against a rookie QB. I’ll take Pitt by 3 here.

    • acto

      ” I love Baylor more than anyone in this contest.”
      CleveTransAm, Do you mean just as a high scoring school with which to wager upon, or do you love the University?
      I have been stopping about once a month during my painful slogs along IH 35 to check out their new stadium. I love the place, it is going to be a fantastic venue. They have done a terrific job taking a beautiful artistic and architectural advantage of the water.

      • Never been to Waco. Only talking about the football sqaud and Sir Briles, seeing as 2 of my 3 NCAAF preseason wagers involve Over 8 wins and Seastrunk to win Heisman. And I love the uni’s

    • chuckycrater

      I love me some Baylor too. I’ve just chosen not to spoil that love by worrying about the point spread.

    • Ok hate to do this but due to the unfortunate AP situation I am switching my essay from Carolina to Florida. Rule #1 is never ever bet against tragedy. Maybe Vikes win by 1? Not risking my essay with it though. Since I didnt write up much on FL I’ll add this. Since Murphy has taken over for the garbage Driskell at QB he’s played really well. 16-22, 240, 3 tds vs a decent Arkansas team last week. And we already know that LSU can’t play defense anymore (allowed >400 yds vs only good tms faced GA, Auburn, Miss St and 5.1, 7.0, 6.9 yds/play). Florida is #2 in the country defensively only allowing 3.7 yds/play so they’ll be in this game no matter what. I mean they allowed a paltry 212 total yds in a loss to the Canes. That’s impressive.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Chicago -8 for a pt tonight please

  • Petefranklin

    rutgers plus thr points tonight please

    • Petefranklin

      Essay pick Oregon State +1.5 over Wazzu. I’m not so sure that Wazzu should be favored in this one. Wazzu has gotten taken to the woodshed when they have played decent teams. I thought that their Defense was better than it is before Stanford torched them. Oregon State has had their share of problems as well, but at least they are healthy after a bye week. They get back THREE Olinemen this week which would help any team offensively, but they also get their star running back back after a concussion. Add it all up and OSU continues their march to a bowl game while Wazzu looks for answers.

    • Petefranklin

      Pick #3 Raiders +9 @ KC
      Pick #4 Ravens +3 vs GB
      Pick #5 Mississippi St -11 vs BGSU

      • Petefranklin

        All Play: I asked Mrs. Franklin and she
        says LAY EM with Denver. We’re heading to the Dunes so G.L. all.

  • thatsfine

    @thatsfine

    Rutgers +18.5 / Louisville (essay)
    One thing Rutgers has been able to accomplish this year is score points – averaging 40/game, no less than 28 in any of the first five games. Twice in the 50’s (overtime, but still had 30+ in regulation both games). Louisville’s defense has looked great, but their biggest test was an in-state road game vs. Kentucky in which they ground out a 27-13 win. The past two contests between these teams have been decided by 2 and 3 points, respectively, and last year the starting QBs and coaches were the same. Rutgers QB Gary Nova is quitely having a good season (13TD/4INT), Louisville’s #1 receiver has a shoulder injury and is questionable. This is Louisville’s first real test, six games into the season. The only info giving me pause on this one is the report that there will be in the neighborhood of 20 NFL scouts there, presumably to see Teddy Bridgewater, giving UL a reason to run up the score when they might normally settle for a 12 or 14 point victory. But, I’m sure plenty of Rutgers players with NFL aspirations see this as an equal chance to put on a show for scouts that may never see them in person otherwise. A rising tide lifting all boats situation – I hope. In any case, I think it will be hard to beat a good offensive team by 18+ in a rivalry game.

    By the way, props to @ClevTA for the skanky fish segment every week. I haven’t used it actively as a starting point to pick a game (that would statistically be a better strategy than the one I currently employ), but it has caused be to back away from a pick that would have been a loss two weeks in a row.

  • @Broncos -27.5 Jags
    All-play.

    @Army -7.5 EMU
    No EMU offense. I mean really, they’re 17 pts/game (#112) but take away the Howard game and it’s ten points/game and a fair amount of those points are in garbage time. EMU is in zombie mode, you gotta figure that Ron English (11-42 as HC since 2009) is dead man walking, the team can’t be enjoying their season, and best they can hope for Saturday is lovely weather so they can enjoy the peak Hudson Valley foliage from their sideline. Army is having a not great year also, but no quit in that team; certainly not in front of the Corps of Cadets. Ugly line to lay, but Army is decent; EMU is suck.

    @BYU -7 GaTech
    I was impressed by BYU win at Logan vs. USU and the beat down was not about Chuckie Keaton’s injury. BYU had Keaton twisted up before the injury. Kyle Van Noy is this year’s Manti Te’o except with more ability/talent and with none of the hype.

    Baylor -18 @KState
    So here’s the ranks for Baylor: Total Offense, #1; Rushing Offense, #2; Passing Offense #1; Pass Efficiency, #1; Scoring Offense, #1, #rd down converts, #2. Then on defense you get Total Defense #17; Red Zone Defense, #1. Bryce Petty is tops in the nation in QB efficiency. Nick Florence was #13 last year. Griffin was #2 the year before that. My take away from all this? It’s hard to find a better head coach than Art Briles and wouldn’t UT be all over him if he weren’t 57. Says here Briles is staying in Waco; says here a lot of Longhorns fans think Briles is a d-bag. This all adds up to Briles going to Austin because the 70 pts/gm thing meets unlimited bankroll and recruiting equals the sort of dynastic presence that UT really should have.

    But I digress. Also, KState is down this year and will be unable to score the 52 points required to cover. (And yes I see you Skanky Fish pick and still believe Bill Snyder to be a warlock. Still liking Baylor.)

    Troy -17.5 @GaState
    GaState is that special kind of bad: the can’t score kind of bad. If we just assume Troy scores their average 34 points, that means Troy wins 34-7. It’s math with teams like this. See EMU above, same deal.

    ***@AFA +4 SDSU
    To: Me
    From: Mom
    Subj: My lock

    “So, I know that I’ve been fired … sent packing… but Id like another chance. See, San Diego St. is playing Air Force AT Air Force. Now, we (spouse and I) are planning a tailgater prior to the 7:00 pm game this Thursday. I think that speaks to the fan club. We’ll be there in 40 degree weather. It’s a known fact that the home team wins when fans come to the game early, eat in the cold, sit in the cold stands, and stay till it’s over. We plan to stay till the last minute. How’s that?”

    When Mom asks for another chance is there any other answer but yes? There really isn’t, but happily this all checks out. AFA is all about their rushing offense now ranked 11th in the country after the 230 rush yards posted against Navy dropped their average per game to 285. SDSU seems respectable in rush defense (#39) until you consider their opponents Nevada, NMSt aren’t running teams… hell OrSt is ranks 121st in rush offense. The one team that DOES run was OSU and the Bucks ran for 263 yds on just 40 carries, a 6.6 yd avg. This is a lot of mumbo jumbo telling you that I think AFA can run on SDSU.

    It’s a good they can run because it looks like passing could be tricky. I’m checking the forecast and I’m not seeing the 40 degree temps Mom mentioned but I am seeing HIGH WIND WARNING. It’s hard to throw the ball when it’s windy. SDSU is a reasonably balanced offense but passing is something they like to do; Falcon Stadium doesn’t exactly provide shelter from wind. [Per Dad: Falcon Stadium is over 6000 feet and so is always colder than Denver. The field is North/South so there ought to be advantage on the down-wind quarters. Looks like it could get down to freezing before it’s over. The wind-chill will be.]

    I like to look at coaches too and the edge here I give to AFA. Rocky Long is a new head at age 62; Troy Calhoun was AFA’s QB in the 80s then did work as an OC for OU, Wake, and the NFL Texans before coming back to his alma mater. Good story. I know from the Nevada loss that his players work hard for him so in spite of the 1-5 record there will be no lay down.

    Not gonna lie, I like getting the four points at home too. I also admit I dislike going against two of our better players (Concierge and TKK) on an essay. But mainly.. cripes she actually called it out as “My lock.” Gotta run with that.

    Also playing Texas, IU, USF, Memphis, Navy, UBuff, BallSt, Wyo, NU, Tulane, Stanford, Bama, TexasSt, BGSU, Raiders, Eagles, Jets, Bills, Titans, Saints, Cowboys, Colts.

  • Peter M

    BRONCOS
    CHI -8 OVER NYG
    UCONN- 6 OVER USF
    MICHIGAN -3 OVER PENN STATE
    CIN -8 OVER BUFF
    DALLAS -5.5 OVE WASH
    The Overhyped QB Bowl. Both of these guys get way too much attention considering they have won zero, nada, zip. That goes with the territory in Dallas. However, the abuse Romo took after Sunday’s loss to Denver was unfair. 48 points should be enough. RG3 may someday be great, but he needs to shut up and work at getting better. His knee injury prevented him from working on his game and it shows. Hopefully, the Curse of Wahoo gets the presidential seal of approval and hammers the Skins. Sunday for sure. Cowboys can score big.

  • Thursday Night action:
    @Louisville -18.5 vs Rutgers
    San Diego St -4 @AFU

  • Its Only Money

    @ Chicago Bears -8 NYG
    @ Louisville -18.5 Rutgers
    @ Cincinnati -21 Temple
    Nebraska – 14.5 @ Purdue
    All Play @ Denver -27.5 Jacksonville

    Essay Pick Oklahoma -14.5 @ Texas
    This could be it for old Mack Brown and his run at Texas, another blow out in the Red River Shootout (hey I’m not politically correct) could be the final nail in the coffin. This was going to be a tough game for the Horn if they had David Ash in the fold, without him it is an impossible task. Texas has no defense to speak of giving up huge yards to BYU and Iowa State. The Sooners overlooked TCU last week already thinking about this matchup. They went into ND and beat them by two TDs the week before that. On this neutral site they will have no trouble with the Horns.

    • acto

      Money,
      I am certain that you are absolutely correct in this essay, it was my choice as well until I received a tip from a not quite exactly unlike completely uninvolved High White Horse Soused that UT is going to be all about the run, all day. Their O-line leaves a lot to be desired, but they have terrific depth at RB.
      More importantly I understand that is completely your choice to be non-PC with your respective nomenclature, but you are missing out on some fun.
      Perhaps you may be too young for this, but say it in your best Gilda Radner doing Bahbah Wahwah voice.
      “Wed Wiver Wivalwee”
      I have been loving this since they changed the name.

      • clevelandfrowns

        I’m playing a unit (IRL unit not Cheddar Bay) on the Longhorns +13 because I never look a gift soused horse in the mouth.

  • Concierge

    Couple for tonight. The rest coming Saturday.

    Arizona +6
    SDSU -4

  • cwonder23

    Guess I don’t like the home teams this week….
    Arizona +6 @ USC
    Oregon -13.5 @ Washington
    Northwestern +10 @ Wiscy
    AP: Jags +27.5 @ Broncos
    Saints +1.5 @ Patriots
    Essay: Colts -2 @ Chargers
    This Colts team looks like a legitimate Super Bowl contender and it’s been fun watching Andrew Luck grow up in style. I think this line should be more than -2 given the quality of each teams defense. Even with the resurgence of Phillip Rivers, the pieces Luck has at his disposal will prove too much for the Chargers to handle. The Chargers defense has been shredded by big play receivers and Andrew has two in Wayne and TY. TRich may not move the ball much but if the Colts can limit turnovers, this game shouldn’t be close. Colts 30 Chargers 24.

    • cwonder23

      Sorry Kanick, had the spread wrong for the Oregon game. I’m going to scratch that one and take Browns +3 vs Lions. Thanks.

  • zarathustra

    Jaguars for the all-play
    Rutgers +18.5 over Louisville
    18.5? Time permitting I may be back with an essay on this bad boy, but for now just a one-pointer.

  • I really hate these lines this week. There is hardly any value on the board, especially on the college side. Too many lines in multiples of 7, and half-points tacked on all over the place. If I didn’t have to make picks, I would sit this week out.

    Also I need to complain about that Rutgers-SMU game because that bullshit cost me 10 spots in the rankings. So I’m at that game, and Rutgers goes up 21-7, and even though they got the ball with like 4:00 left in the first half and made no effort to get more points, I was feeling good about a cover.

    Then they got up 35-14 and SMU really couldn’t figure out how to slow them down, so this thing was in the bag. And then those fools took their foot off the gas for an ENTIRE QUARTER. They made no attempt to move the ball or show any kind of creative play calling, and also they stopped playing defense completely. When they tried to convert a 4th and almost 3 by running the ball when a first down would have ended the game at 35-27, you pretty much knew what was going to happen. <a href="http://deadspin.com/smu-ties-rutgers-with-minute-remaining-on-insane-two-po-1441563837?autoplay=1"The two-point conversion was awesome, but still. Rutgers had to do about 10 things in a row not to cover, and they did all of them. To quote former Bucs linebacker Broderick Thomas talking about the possibility of being snubbed from the Pro Bowl in 1991, I was pissed to the highest levels of pissedivity.

    ————

    ALL PLAY: Broncos -27.5 vs. Jaguars
    The only way this line doesn’t cash in is if Denver feels sorry for the Jaguars, the way Nick Saban felt bad for Georgia State and Colorado State, and lays off in the second half. But you can’t just put the third stringers and walk-ons into an NFL game. All the other numbers point to this outrageous line still being too low. The Broncos average 46 points per game, the Jaguars average 10.2. The Broncos average 489.8 yards per game on offense, the Jaguars average 251.8. The Broncos convert 58.3% of their third downs, the Jaguars convert 28.8%. Even if Denver tries to run the ball and drain the clock, the Jaguars are last in the league against the run. And on top of all that, the half point looms huge here.

    Boise State -7 vs. Utah State
    I watched some of the Utah State-BYU game and the Aggies looked completely lost on offense when Chuckie Keeton got knocked out. Their defense got roughed up too. Boise isn’t BCS quality anymore but they’re at least as good as BYU.

    Maryland -7 vs. Virginia
    I know the Terps got pounded to dirt last week. But Virginia just sucks.

    Oregon State +1.5 vs. Washington State

    Northern Illinois -22.5 vs. Akron

    ESSAY: Oklahoma -14.5 vs. Texas
    You don’t need me to tell you what a bloodbath this game has been at times for the Longhorns. But what about this Texas team gives you any hope that they’ll be reasonably competitive? Even against one of the Big XII’s true bottom-feeders in Iowa State, Texas got outgained by 100 yards and needed some poor late-game decision-making by the Cyclones, a bunch of defensive penalties, and a gift from the referees to eke out a 31-30 win. I don’t think they’ve righted the ship as much as they’ve scraped by against two pretty mediocre teams. Oklahoma can run the ball and stop the run, which puts Texas in a lot of trouble because they’ll get gashed on the ground and they can’t depend on Case McCoy to win a big game like this. I don’t think this game will turn into one of those famous laughers, but the potential is there again.

    Also, this is the second straight week where my essay is on a game I am actually attending. I’m finally going to the Cotton Bowl after a decade of wanting to go but never sucking it up and making the trip. Will it be Mack’s last stand? Probably. Will I eat something fried that should never, ever be fried? Maybe. Will I come out of the stadium scarred for life by something I’ve seen? Odds are my seat will be among despondent Texas fans, so I’ll put that down as a yes.

    • acto

      Have fun chucky!
      I am sad that I am not going to make it this year. I almost made this my essay too, I thought the line would be Oklahoma -28. I shall certainly miss the best game food anywhere.
      Just a tip, break out the thickest Texas drawl you can muster and say, “Gimme sumpthun fried with gravy on it please!” Never order anything in particular, just let them choose for you. You may get lucky and they will grab the first thing that rises to the top of the bubbling oil milieu. LIke lunch via natural selection.
      Last year I got a seven chipmunk kabob with Country Style, Counter Sludge Gravy, good eats!!
      Well…. I hope they were chipmunks.

  • cwonder23

    Arizona +6 @ USC

  • chuckkoz

    WEEK 7
    Rutgers +18.5 (at Louisville)
    Giants +8 (at Bears)
    Jets -2.5 (vs Steelers)
    Chargers +2 (vs Colts)
    AP: Jaguars +27.5 (at Broncos)
    Essay: Packers -3 (at Ravens)

    First off, love the all play – well done Kanick. I was planning on playing that game just because it seemed necessary, so I love that you recognized the extraordinary nature of that line.

    Moving on to my essay pick. I don’t care if the Ravens have looked decent against the Dolphins and Texans, they still suck. They have played against one team so far that is going to make the playoffs, and in that game they were murdered by Denver. Meanwhile, the Packers have played 3 playoff caliber teams: 1) a road loss to SF which is fine, 2) a strange loss at Cincy that I cannot see happening if they play that 5 more times, and 3) last week’s manhandling of the Lions. And of note is that the Packers looked great coming off their bye last week against the lions, so its fair to think the cobwebs are off. So I really see this is a battle-tested and rested Packers with the possibly the best QB in football, versus a team that has (so far) avoided what could have been a disaster season by beating some crappy teams that is led by a guy that is 28th in the league in QB rating. I will join the general gambling population which has caused this line to move from 1 to 3 and take the Packers.

  • acto

    “What do you want for nothing, a Cheddar Biscuit?”
    This week’s picks brought to you by the Warrick School for Delinquent Teenagers.
    Poised to make my mad dive for the cellar, I shall post without rhyme, reason or thought and I shall be ready to go “One Step Beyond”.
    (Please keep that song in your head if you choose to read this careless venture.)

    Cinn U -21 over Temple, wish we were Rice, Owls
    Nebraska -14-5 over the team with the best name in football.

    Please imagine the power of Ohio State if they were “The Ohio State University Gin and Tonics”
    Also note that there is a huge push on to rename the Southwest Texas/Texas State University Bobcats to The Texas State Tequila Shots

    University of Texas at San An-Go-Spurs-Tonio Mescal -1.5 over Rice with a side of black beans
    U of H -10 over Memphis
    Wyoming -16 over New Mexico
    ****All play and essay****
    The Jacksonville Kittens +27.5 over the Denver Draft Horses
    Peyton Manning may not play more than a series or two. Jacksonville knows full well that they are the biggest underdog since; well…. Underdog. “There is no need to fear Underdog is here.”
    This could most assuredly be the game that makes us all forget that Cumberland score, (does anyone really know that Heisman was an ass?), but I will bet my shoelaces that Denver will not cover. (No, that is not a hint that I am expecting a surprise visit from that guy from that team up north, but it could happen.) All of my alleged better judgement says that Denver is a sure thing to win by 50. Did everyone see that Philly game? However, I envision the ghost of Roger Goodell jumping in to clash with the most probable events, wreaking havoc to prove parity within the league he and James A Naismith created.
    Peyton Manning is unlikely to stick his neck out, (horrible lack of humor intended), to run up the score and Chip Kelly will not be able to run 88 plays for Denver to assure plenty of offence. Wait, who the hell is Chip Kelly?
    Hopefully Jacksonville will be content to start running the clock out early in the first quarter, as will Denver. Why would anyone want to extend this game to Chip Kelly length when they are being beaten into a well tenderized Welfare Burger? (I make the best Welfare Burgers in the world by the way. We need a Frownie/Burgermeister/Cheddar Tailgate!) The affiliated broadcast networks will be happy to have a 2 hour game so they may show more “Sid the Science Kid” reruns and next year we may get at least four “byes” on these stupid “all plays”.
    Who the hell is that gambling degenerate Matt Borcas?
    “What is in a name? that we call rose
    By any other name would smell as sweet
    So Frownio were he not Borcasio”
    Well…. you get where I am going with this pick.

    • Amazing. We are all just #chasingActo.

      • acto

        Oh course that comes as a complete surprise to you Frownie.
        Although I must admit you figured out that I am a complete idiot in a remarkably short period of time.
        However, please do not toot your own horn too loudly, p_4, Bryan, CLTIL, Dubby and a cast of favorites dismissed me as an absolute Juke long before you reached that conclusion.

        • CleveLandThatILove

          I think I need some pink shirts in my wardrobe.

          • acto

            CLTIL,
            I am down about 60 lbs since we met, so I have the nerve to buy clothes again.
            Tailor made Kim Soo suit, charcoal with very thin pink pinstripes, pink shirt of course and a beautiful pink and silver tie. (I wish you could see it.) Growing up with 6 older sisters has made me rather girly about clothes, but for some odd reason no one makes fun of my preference for pink.

          • COOL IT BOTH OF YOU.

          • acto

            Mo more “COOL ITS” My all encompassing love for CLTIL shall stand forever!

            CLTIL please help me out here…. One amourous word from our favorite hot redhead should suffice.

          • cltil

            Don’t make me come over there 🙂

        • I mean it in every sense. The artistry of these essays is as good as anything that’s ever happened in this contest.

  • Week 7 Picks

    AP – Jaguars (+27.5) over Broncos – I am 1-5 in the all play this year so I asked my 3 year old daughter who would win between a jaguar and a horse. This is science. Don’t fight it.

    NIU (-22.5) over Akron – Last week NIU had 698 yards and 454 yards on the ground. I credit Kent because I have no idea how that only adds up to 38 points. The undefeated Huskies finally get to play a 2nd home game in week 6 and should run all over Akron which will need another week to recover from being so close in the big house. Heads up though Akron…Miami of Ohio and UMass still on the schedule.

    Arkansas State (-24.5) over Idaho – Next year Idaho joins the Sun Belt. That makes sense. Arkansas State gives them a preview of the ass kickings they now get to fly across the country for on a weekly basis.

    Wyoming (-16) over New Mexico – Wyoming good at home and scores a ton of points. Don’t think New Mexico can keep up.

    Bears (-8) over Giants – Man crush on Cutler + Eli vs Bears D = 1 cheddar point. This is math. Works every time.

    Essay Pick

    There are 3 winless teams against the spread this year in the NFL. 2 of them are awful football teams. Jacksonville and the NY Giants. The 3rd team is one that has had some really bad breaks, some awful QB play from an above average QB, and some downright stupid coaching decisions. Sorry…yell at Schaub all you want but the coaching staff handed Seattle that game and they took it. On the other side is a St. Louis team that will eventually come to the conclusion that Sam Bradford is not a good QB. The Rams just are not a good football team which we all should have known when Bernie told us. I mean we are talking about the best preseason football analyst in the universe. The Texans rally around Schaub get out to an early lead and just punish the Rams on the ground all day long.

    Texans (-7.5) over Rams

  • As a point of clarification, the Stanky picks went 3-2, not 2-3 last week, continuing a stretch of >.500 every week these picks have been posted. Two of the 3 winners won outright. On to this week’s picks. Trying to get these posted as soon as I can so you guys can get them in for your own personal credits before the lines change too much:

    NCAAF:

    1. Memphis +9.5 v Houston (Line opened Hou -11.5, now 9.5. 76% of public on HOU) Pick: Memphis
    2. UTSA -1.5 v Rice (Line opened Rice -3.5, now UTSA -1.5. 66% of public on Rice) Pick: UTSA
    3. PSU +3 v Michigan (Line opened Mich -3, now either 3/2.5 depending on site. 74% on Mich) Pick: PSU
    4. KSU +18 v Baylor (Line opened Baylor -20, now 18/17. 71% of public on Baylor) Pick: KSU

    Nothing in NFL this week

    • damn you skanky fish. i’ve got a g.d. art briles paean 90% done.

  • acto

    jk,
    Was that the parade where that float from Clemson was Hijacked and ended up in a mid-Ohio barge canal?

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    AP: Broncos -27.5
    Baltimore Ravens +3 vs. Green Bay
    Washington Huskies +14.5 vs. Oregon

    Rest later

    • FlyHighCharlieFrye

      UTEP +10.5 vs. Tulsa
      Oklahoma -14.5 vs. Mack Brown Comedy Show

      The State University of New York at Buffalo -12.5 at Western Michigan

      Who’s the worst team in the country? The MAC has multiple candidates, and Western Michigan is one. The Broncos stink on every level, have zero confidence, have injuries piling up and this week had at least one recruit who matters de-commit. Smells like a disaster. Buffalo meanwhile hasn’t been bad when not playing Ohio State and Baylor, has a QB, has a first-round pick on defense and as long as the bus doesn’t get lost, will not be at a road disadvantage. How many fans will Western have at this point, 12? Every Buffalo game has gone over this year which was certainly helped by Ohio State and Baylor. Buffalo had 453 yards of offense in this game last year when Western had somewhat of a pulse, and over the last four weeks Western has been outgained by 126, 237, 142 and 153. Maybe Western gets to 20 points. Maybe. Buffalo gets to 34? Possibly midway thru the third. Essay me the Bulls in my first really excited MACtion home run swing of the year. If you think I might be right, read this that pretty much confirmed what I was already thinking – http://www.ubbullrun.com/2013/10/9/4821034/q-a-with-western-michigan-fan/in/4575203

      • I love that Buffalo has an SBNation blog.
        (pfft… Scripps School…)

      • This was lovely, Charlie. Thank you.

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