Cheddar Bay week 4: We [are now no longer] goin’ to Ypsi.

pope-selection-white-smoke_65226_600x450

White smoke seen rising above the Basilica of Cheddar Bay.

LATE LINES:

Arkansas +2 at Rutgers;
Toledo -13 at CMU;
FAMU +49.5 at OSU.

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After an emergency session of the Cheddar Bay Executive Committee, the all-play for this week is no longer the sleeper sneaky MAC game between Ann Arbor and Detroit.

We are now asking our pickers to choose this game:

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Packers -3 at Bengals.
1pm Sunday.
Game matchup link.

Three time playoff team and undefeated 1-1 Bengals a home dog?  Residual MNF football effect?  Should be a strong game.

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Week four lines here.

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UPDATE, Thursday PM:  ClevTA’s Rotten Skanky Fishstinky-dead-animated-fish-with-flies
Last week, TA’s formula went 4-1-1.  Let’s see how it goes this week:

CFB:
– SJSU v Minn (opened Min -5, now -3.5. 65% on MIN) ADV: SJSU
– Memphis v ARK St (opened -6, now -4. 69% on ARK st) ADV: Memphis
– SDSU v Oregon St (opened -11, now -8.5. 67% on Oregon St) ADV: SDSU

NFL:
– ATL v MIA (opened PK, now MIA -2.5. 68% on ATL) ADV: MIA
– Buf v NYJ (opened NYJ -1, now NYJ -2.5. 64% on BUF) ADV: NYJ

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———DISREGARD LOVELY YPSILANTI———

ypsilanti-06-580

Ypsilanti, MI:  Home to EMU and rumored to be a pretty cool place.

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Other news.

Welcome Swerb.  I granted new player Swerb a late entry bogey of one point.  There is precedent for this from past years, not a biggie, and congrats on coming out strong.

Hell yes we can still accept late entries.  In case you know anyone on the fence.  Get em in touch with me.

Cheddar public service announcement.  If anyone missed yesterday’s post, Be a better bettor, it’s probably worth your while to check it out.  Many thanks for Petefranklin, ClevTA, and Squeekycleen for their insights.  If you know real handicappers, you know discretion and low-profile are two cornerstones in that personality profile… so we appreciate the info they were willing to share.

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Michie Stadium is terrific.  

photo-001

The Stanford man.

Army’s home games have been played at Michie Stadium since the 1920s.  You cannot ask for a better venue.  Good people, beautiful scenary, the parking –my god– the parking was executed like a miliatary operation, and Army played their balls off.  Army was hanging in, down 20-13 with five minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  Stanford had to out weigh Army by forty pounds at every position on the line and that eventually took its toll.  But the Army TD with seventeen seconds left was hard-earned and very tasty.

The game was a sell out with many Stanford types at the game and they all looked like this guy.

The only complaint, and it’s minor, was the the Corps of Cadets were in the visitor stands.  Don’t know if this is a new thing but have to say it could have been louder on our side of the field.  The Corps was loud.  Good thing too, because with the camo unis, you’d completely miss them but for the sound.

photo-002

Camo works.

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  • Art Brosef

    Thanks to a much anticipated weekend golf trip, Im now forced to use my money play on this Monday Night Football game I will normally would not even watch, much lest interest wager on. Ive heard quite a bit about Peyton Manning this year, and Id imagine most of the betting public has as well. Oakland leads the league in sacks with nine and lead the league in rushing at almost 200 yards a game. Heres hoping that results in the ball not being in Mannings hand as often as usual. Add in the fact that this is a big NFL number and Denvers win over New York last week isnt as impressive in light of their performance yesterday. Gimme the points.

  • Hey I know technically late on this, but can I get Tampa?

    Then later I’ll go with Da Bearse.

    So that would be Browns, SF, Pack, Bucs, Bears. Lemme know if I need an alternate.

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Saturday Picks

    UTSA
    K State

    Sunday Picks
    All Play: Green Bay – 3: I was a lot higher on the Bungles before I saw Dalton last week and looked awful. I think Rodgers will score early and often. Think the Pack wins by a TD here.
    Giants (PK): I just don’t see the Giants losing here. They’re better than the Panthers and better coached.
    Miami -1.5
    EssayLBears -2.5:
    Bears Offense has looked great. They will put up 30 on an aging and hurting defense. The Steelers simply can’t score, they have no running game and without pouncey Big Ben can’t get a pass off. I just don’t see Pitt being about to score 30 pts and thats what you going to have to do against the Bears this year.

  • mattborcas

    FAMU (+49.5) over Ohio St. (lose)
    Texas (-5) over Kansas St. (win)

    Packers (-3) over Bengals
    Giants (PK) over Panthers
    Chargers (+3) over Titans

    ESSAY: Browns (+6) over Vikings

    The return of Josh Gordon figures to open up the offense for Hoyer (who shouldn’t play any worse than Weeden has this season: http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr), and I like Davone Bess’s elevation to the starting lineup, which means fewer drives ending prematurely because of an egregious Little drop/mistake. Flacco and Tannehill were good enough to evade the Browns’ pass rush and pick on Skrine/Owens, but Ponder’s a different story. Candidly (*HASLAM VOICE*), Ponder is impatient and seems to resort to scrambling too quickly, throws 1-2 backbreaking picks per game, and can’t be expected to exploit the Skrine/Owens tandem of death like Flacco and Tannehill did. Adrian Peterson should underperform against Football Outsiders’ third-ranked run defense (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef), and folks won’t notice an appreciable difference between Willis McGahee and T-Rich, at least in terms of pure output. Finally, all the talk of tanking the season probably lit a fire under Browns players/coaches eager to disprove such a notion, however justified it may be. This’ll be an ugly-ass 17-13 win for the Vikings.

  • bobby_slick

    Time to get back on track…

    ND (L)
    UTSA (W)

    Packers -3
    Giants PK ***
    Chargers +3
    Atlanta +1.5

    Eli flat out finds a way to win this game. The Giants cannot afford to start 0-3 and I believe Coughlin has focused on fixing the turnovers. If they can eliminate some of their mistakes, maybe they’ll get some credit for the good things they have done this year. Eli is second in passing yards in the league entering this week only behind Rodgers, and Cruz is having another pro bowl year. Adding to this, the Panthers D is really nothing to write home about, I see Giants winning this one in convincing style.

  • oxr

    College: UTSA (win)

    AP: Packers -3 over Bengals – short week for Cincinnati, Packers are good.
    Bears -2.5 over Steelers – why do I keep picking (games involving) the Bears, for God’s sake? Last week was an easy cover if not for all the calamitous errors and (hopefully) non-predictive events, but then I say that every damn time. Steelers are pretty bad.
    Rams +4.5 over Cowboys.
    Dolphins -1.5 over Falcons – scary pick but I think TA’s Rotten Fish idea is fascinating and I want to join in the fun.

    Essay: Giants PK over Panthers – OK, so they’re on the road. But speaking of non-predictive events, the Giants are a fairly hard-luck 0-2, and their losses are less alarming than Carolina’s late collapse against the Bills. Denver appears to be legitimately good, and the opening week meltdown against the Cowboys still saw NYG put up 31 points and sling the ball around all over the place. Meanwhile, Carolina’s secondary has not been one of their strengths thus far, and they haven’t done much on offense with the opportunities they’ve been given (albeit against Seattle, but still). If the Giants can refrain from shooting themselves in the feet and then fumbling due to the agonizing pain they can certainly control this one. However, if they should fall behind through their own ineptitude or Steve Smith going nuclear or whatever, the Eli gunslinger offense is well-equipped to mount a furious comeback – and victory by a single point would be enough.

  • Hitthehorns:

    Bengals +3

  • bupalos

    First off welcome to swerb. In honor of your joining I’m forgoing my NCAA pick in order to supply your welfare point without creating inflation in the bay. The austrian libertarians here will understand the economics of this. Its necessary and has nothing to do with me being half passed out most of the night at the carpatho rusyn vatra in burton, where there is 0% T-Mobile data signal unless and until the sky is and was as 100% clear as the mysterious alleged liquid (alleged liquid because i swear when you look in the glass all you see is like those heat distortion waves) being poured (wafted??) from mysterious bottles into the mysterious plastic “shot glasses,” that look a whole whale of a lot like those little communion cups and oh hey by the way look there’s a little chapel over there. “Vatra” means bonfire, and “carpatho rusyn” means, as near as I can tell, either ransacker of little chapels, or drinker of the fermented plum, or both.

    Which is a fine segue into the matter at hand. For as baysters of a certain age will remember, there is a certain city that at one time embarked on the absolute lamest civic marketing campaign known to man (or beast), involving this very fruit–the plum–being compared with the apple. And somehow embodying the city. And this all somehow redounding to the good of the city, marketing-wise. As i say baysters of a certain age know whereof i speak. It was a peculiarly clevelandic kind of nonsense, perhaps the smiliest-faced offspring the general civic inferiority complex ever produced. That complex is never far from the surface, usually mumbling about how there aren’t enough night clubs to be like the cool kids, or remembering how we’re the only city ever to have a river fire (because somehow the fact that every single other mid century petro river port had caught fire doesn’t count), or that dey turk arrr jerbs, or holy shit, it might fucking snow once in a while oh me oh my. As i say its never far from the surface. But let something, and I mean ANYthing the least bit ambiguous happen in the world of sports and watch the flood gates open. For instance:

    Trade away a big promising tailback that can’t find the hole in his own butt–a guy that can’t squeeze through a gap narrower than area between the hashmarks or keep from stopping his own momentum when he sees the shadow of a 178 lb cornerback–trade that guy away for an extra first round pick, and witness Euclid avenue blasted clean with the force of our own woe. Oh, no one’s suffered like we’ve suffered! We’re horrible. Such torture. Oh how shall I now consume my football product?

    The universe would have to be actively unjust to allow this base whining spirit to enjoy itself in such a ridiculous wallow. Which is why the clevland browns, despite now having an even more seriously challenged player under center, will easily cover the 6 and probably win outright. Its just what happens next. So, louder and prouder than ever before, I bupalos step to the cliffs of the bay and shout for one and for all, CLEVELAND BROWNS FOR ALL THE CHEDDAR.

    The only other pick I know for sure is SF, because they are this weeks surrogate browns. I bupalos foresee that there will be other winning teams tomorrow too, and once this heat-distortion dissipates I will signify further. Until then, gentle reader.

    • acto

      Wow Bupa, you are certainly living large.
      The “carpatho rusyn vatra in burton,” that must be the perfect place for a big, dum, Slovak guy like me to play.
      I am very jealous of the Bupa life. I thought Burton only had maple trees.

      • bupalos

        Its great. In joseph Conrad stuff and Russian novels they are always referring to people falling into the fire as just kind of one of those general “bad luck” things that happen to people, and I was always like what the hell? How could that be a common thing. Then I went to the vatra.

        They get fired up on slivovitse and start jumping over the bonfire and doing these semi complicated circle dances around it, all backed by frantic fiddle and trumpet and accordion players. I may proactively smear myself in aloe next time.

        • acto

          I am very jealous Bupa, you do all of the fun stuff.
          Did any of the Bupettes win a unicorn, Leprechaun or a slave for life?

          • bupalos

            Not yet. But they’re working on it.

    • thanks for this. my latest post is largely a reply this.

    • bupalos

      .I’ll get the PACK in all play.

    • clevelandfrowns

      This is so good.

  • cheddarclay

    Packers (-3) / Bengals

    This is a battle of two likely playoff teams, that are actually kind of similar. They both like to get after the qb, but both qb’s have excellent te’s that can help them beat a blitz or at least keep lbs honest. I give an edge to Bengals on D, and Pack on offense. Vegas agrees with the (now) 3 point spread. So, most things being equal you must look to the qb’s, where GB has the obvious edge. Throw in that Kirkpatrick is likely out for Nati, and the edge has to go to the pack. Most likely a game of big plays and I gotta bet Rogers has at least 1 more in him than ginger boy. Browns should be back in first place tomorrow after a short 1 week hiatus.

  • thatsfine

    thatsfine

    Mr. Cheddarmaster, please change my Panthers pick to Rams+4.5. Can’t bet against Coughlin tomorrow. Sorry about that.

  • Trashycamaro

    @byu -7 over Utah

    • trashycamaro

      Bears -2.5 @ Steelers: get in while 1. the betting world still kinda likes the Steelers and 2. before the Steelers remember they are the Steelers (this is projected to happen the first time they play the Browns). The Steelers are really struggling and I saw something about Haley is changing their offense to a quick throw west coast/spread hybrid…which of course is a very suboptimal offense for Roethlisberger. Throw in a struggling running game (welcome back Dwyer, the coaching staff hated you but did not want to pony up a #1 pick TRich), a bad offensiver line, no game breakers at WR…yeah, glad I made this my essay pick. Few things make me happier than watching the Steelers dissolve like they were in a special Walter White barrel from Home Depot. Did I hit 100 words yet?

      Jags +20 @ Seahawks: I know the Jags are barely an NFL team, but they are an NFL team

      @49ers -10.5 over Colts: Hey Colts, enjoy 3.5 ypc.

      Giants over pk @ Panthers

      @Dolphins -1.5 over Falcons

  • DQuatts

    DQuatts week 4 action:

    Michigan -18.5
    Colorado State +41

    More action to come tomorrow morning. Have a great weekend!

    • DQuatts

      Dennis Quatts back again!

      Mich (lose)
      CSU (win)

      Arizona +8
      Miami -1.5
      Cincinnati +3
      Pittsburgh +2.5**

      Essay**

      This is exactly what the Pittsburgh Steelers need….a Sunday night game, at home, against a pretty solid Bears team. A game they absolutely need to show up for. A game they need to win to avoid their worst start in 15 years. Tomlin will have these guys fired up and ready to play. I like the crowd playing a part in this one, potentially rattling a “rattle-able” Jay Cutler. I am still questioning the Bears identity, and although the Steelers have struggled the first two weeks, things are going to change Sunday Night. Ball control will be key here. I don’t see this one being high scoring, but I do see it tight throughout. Should be a great one to watch! Enjoy…

  • thatsfine

    Off to a slow start, but feeling like this is the week to turn it around, especially after the inspirational “Being a better bettor” skill-share posted here earlier this week.

    thatsfine

    ASU +9 / Stanford (Essay)
    After a great week of college football comes a Saturday with only a few interesting games. On one side I’ve been impressed by Arizona State. Last week was my first time watching them for an entire game, and I think they do a good job of playing uptempo fluidly. This will, of course, be harder on the road. Kelly put up 352 passing yards on Wisconsin, though it took 52 attempts to do so. On the other side, I’m somewhat unimpressed by what I’ve seen from Stanford. They labored to put away Army, and only managed to put up 34 points on both them and San Jose State. Part of this is their slow pace, ball control style. Part of it is maybe they are a bit overrated. I’m seeing this line as low as 6, so I’ll take a good value underdog.
    USC -7 / Utah State
    Packers -3 / Bengals – I like the Packers offense better than Cincy’s defense
    Bills +2.5 / Jets
    Panthers PK / Giants – Going against the public here. Panthers could have won both of their games so far. The Giants, not so much. The Giants won’t win until their backs are against the wall.
    Clemson (boo)

  • jmacdaddio(@jmacdaddio)

    Packers -3 over Bengals (Bengals will end up a strong 1-2, if that makes sense)
    Stanford -9 over ASU
    Maryland +6 over West Virginia
    Chargers +3 over Titans
    Saints -8 over Cardinals

    Essay: Lions +1.5 over Washington

    It seems that everyone in the USA except the Redskins fan base, the Shanahans, and RG3 himself know that RG3 is at best RG3 is at best RG2.1. The Lions can put up points, relatively speaking. The ‘Skins won’t be done after this loss since the NFC Least this year looks like a division where 8 wins might secure a playoff berth, but in the early phase of the season I don’t see the team adjusting to the New Normal of a mobile QB with two major knee surgeries under his belt just yet. Also I’m biased because Matt Stafford is my fantasy QB and therefore is destined to put up many, many points.

  • Petefranklin

    Cheddar #1 Rice +2.5 I got it at 3 but I’m not going to let the contest lines dictate my picks any more. BTW you probably shouldn’t be gambling if you bet this @+2.5 as there are many 3’s out there

    Non cheese plays Maryland -5 over WVA(small)and OVER THE TOTAL (LARGE) a great QB and WR duo for Maryland that very few public bettors know about.

    EMU/Balls St- This all comes down to if Ballsy’s RB Edwards is playing, if yes Ball St minus, if not give me the home dog. With Ballsts top wr injured their main homerun threat is gone but they get their big plays from RB’s. I think he is playing so I would have laid the wood @ EMU’s homecoming, even though they have a big game with Toledo on deck……..It took me like three hours for that slight lean so this is a non play, thanks stupid random # generator!

    • everything the “Be a better bettor” post taught me says EMU in that game but, dammit, they got NO offense. gun to my head i’m going ball state but somehow the gun was removed from my head.

      • Petefranklin

        I think Edwards scored three, nailed it for nothing. Thanks Prohibited favorite 🙁

    • Petefranklin

      Should have stuck to Ballsy St instead of eating burnt Rice

      Cheddar plays:
      #2 Rams +4.5 Ill take the gift points as Dallas has been a horrendious favorite lately. Browns fans take note, even if the Clowns crawl out of the sewer someday they will only be Dallas(Jerry Jones- Haslem’s role model) good. Re-reading this after I wrote my essay made me suddenly sick to my stomach, no B.S.

      #3 NYG pk I hate that the line has moved so much as this is usually a sure loser(NFL line move of 2.5 or more) but I saw how lucky I got with Buffalo scoring so much late last week. That was with a QB in his second game. The Panthers lost 3 DB’s last week so Manning should be able to torch them if Martin doesn’t fumble away another game like week 1(I sure could use those 3 points right about now).One more thing, I liked the Gmen to bounce back last week but I could not pull the trigger with Peyton in the groove against a suspect Giant defense. The panthers QB (forgot his name) is very below average, especially if he is forced to score TD’s which Eli will make him do.

      #4 Steelers +2.5 as a home underdog. What have the Bears done to win a game, let alone dominate one? Nothing. Both games were gifts(sort of).This has got to be a playoff game for Pitts. Lose and they are done,win and they are 1 game out or even tied. The Steelers will look more like the Steelers on national TV and at least pass very well which should mean points. Can Mrs Cutler keep up? Doubtful, as they have the Lions next week and Jay is probably already having nightmares about Suh “turkeying” him.

      #5 Packers -3 NFL is a QB league and if I could pick 1 it would be Rodgers. If Dalton approached good, this Bengal team would be scary. He’s not, they’re not, and they have a short week after coming off an emotional Monday night win, over the Steelers to boot. The pack will use the pass to open up the run and the better ginger won’t be able to keep up with Rodgers.

      #6 ESSAY NYJets -2.5 over Buffalo. First road start for a rookie QB and they are not even getting a FG…count me in! The Jets defense is much better than Buffalo’s and gets 3 extra days to prepare. Yes I am backing a rookie myself but he is at home and doesn’t have a rookie head coach in his first road game as well. This will be an ugly game, but the Jets should do enough to get the win by three. I personally split my bet points and moneyline just to make sure. I mentioned it earlier Manuals comeback last week was because the Panthers lost 3 DB’s last week, the Jets are healthy and smell a divisional win

      Note I would love to bet the skins but cant, this will be the first time in 30 years where I haven’t backed the skins at home over the Lions. Maybe Ill have a change of heart tomorrow AM. Much like the Clowns don’t win on opening day (or on any day when it matters) the Lions ALWAYS lose in D.C.

      Another note if the Clowns win tomorrow they could be tied for first! BWWAAAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAHHAAAA!

  • packers -3
    ball state -11
    north texas +33
    michigan state +7
    texas tech -27

    louisville -42.5

    typically i avoid lines of 35 or more for the favorites; too much is volatile in a situation like that — when will the starters come out? will the dog drain clocks or play a bit better than expected? but in this one, i think 42.5 isn’t even close to enough. fiu is an epically bad offense ranked near the bottom in almost every statistical category, and louisville needs to crush teams to keep teddy in the heisman voters’ minds and in the pollsters’ good graces. this one could get ugly fast.

  • oxr

    My obligatory Saturday pick is UTSA over UTEP, with apologies for the shameless bandwagon jumping. NFL tomorrow AM.

  • Watch out Cheddar Bay contestants, I’m on a roll now…two weeks in a row, ONE of my picks have been correct. (Read: Move on, you don’t want to be advised by any picks here folks.) I’m purposely not taking any picks that Nick is because I think he secretly blames me for bringing my impressive dark cloud over his badassery.

    However, I have read up on how to be a better bettor and hopefully I can get my act together. But just in case, really, don’t take any of the picks I made, I’m cursed.

    All Play: Green Bay -3

    Minnesota Gophers -5 over San Jose State

    Michigan -18.5 over Conn

    Dolphins -1.5 over Falcons

    Arizona State +9 versus Stanford

    My essay pick, which was hard this week because these games were all picked from a place of logic, not a place of love. This was how Beanie Wells ended up on a fantasy football team of mine once. I really wanted to go with LSU (one of my most favorite college teams, Geaux Tigers!) but I noticed how much the spread moved and Auburn is tough, so I’m staying out of it. I’m not picking schools I’ve partied at and I’m not picking schools with the best colors (I’m talking about you, Seminoles). I’ll be essaying on a game that, logically, I think will be a winner against the spreads.

    Essay Pick: USC -7 over Utah State.

    First of all, there can only be one truly contending Aggies, and that’s not Utah State’s, Gig’em. USC has been a little messy so far but if the coach doesn’t get his act together, it’s game over for him, so I’m betting he’s run a pretty tight ship this week. I think USC had the confidence builder they needed with their win over Boston and hopefully they have their mojo back. People are saying Utah is “tough” and has “talent on both sides” but these are basic things I expect from any Division I team, like I expect President to be articulate- these are things that should be truths and not pros. It’s like saying a guy is nice. If he’s not nice and something, then he’s just okay. I think Utah is just okay. USC is still hurting in the run game but some big pass TDs will ensure a win by more than seven today.

    • ***Runs immeidately to sportsbook and places 4 team parlay on Minny/Mich/ASU/USC.***
      ***2-16 record not mathematically sustainable.***

    • cltil

      From the Girls Guide to being a Better Bettor, blasting Maneater by Hall and Oates while making your picks works too 🙂

    • It is quite a spectacular performance you‘re putting on here. 

  • f/b/o Frowns:

    Buckeyes UTSA and Pitt for me today please.

    • Hi everybody. Should be a fun day of football. 3 NFL picks and 1 essay:

      ESSAY: Dolphins ‐1.5 over Falcons: Count me with the folks who think Philbin`s Fins are for real. I like that this is their first home game. I like that they`ve gotten pressure on their opponents` QBs on 37 percent of dropbacks through the first two games. And the Falcons are so banged up. Look:

      “[Steven Jackson] will not play this week. I know that,” coach Mike Smith said. “It is short term. When I say short term, I don’t know if it’s two weeks or three weeks.”

      Atlanta also lost fullback Bradie Ewing (shoulder) and defensive end Kroy Biermann (Achilles) for the season, and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (foot) for a minimum of eight weeks. Starting left tackle Sam Baker (knee, foot) also has been ruled out for this game, and a thigh injury could sideline cornerback Asante Samuel.

      “We’ve not had anything close to this,” Smith said about the rash of injuries.

      Can`t believe the public is on the Falcons today. The birds are the rotten fish here. And Dolphins are mammals anyway. Boom.

      ALL PLAY: Bengals

      also: Browns: WE CAN‘T EVEN SUCK RIGHT.

  • Munasrevenge

    Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Duke
    Wyoming (-4) @ Air Force
    Cardinals (+9) @ Saints
    Giants (PK) @ Panthers

    – Packers (-3) over Bengals

    — Michigan (-18.5) @ UConn

    Yes yes, they almost fell prey to MACtion last weekend (from one of the little sisters of the MAC at that), but obviously Michigan is a much better team than what they showed last week. Now they look to get a little swagger back against a pretty weak UConn team. UConn can’t run, like really at ALL (81 yds in a home loss to Towson) so that should free up some help for Michigan’s secondary, which is the weaker part of their D. I don’t think Akron discovered any magic formula to stopping the wolverine offense last week as much as they just had a down game, and the UConn D hasn’t exactly looked stout in giving up 30+ points to a mediocre Maryland offense and Division-II Towson. Couple that with an artificially low line due to the recency bias of the near-upset last week, and this line seems like a good value. I expect them to bounce back in a big way and think they could have this spread covered by halftime. With a lot of shakier “big games” this week (was really tempted by ASU +9 and Tennessee +17 but I see those games as more coin-flippy; I actually took 3 NFL games this week for christ’s sake) UM in a rout seems like one of the safest bets this week.

  • cheddarclay

    NC State – Winner
    VT (-9.5) / Marshall
    Ark St (-4.5) / Memphis
    UTEP (pick) / UTSA
    BYU (-7) / Utah

    All play essay to follow

  • Presently staying at the Beau Rivage in Biloxi, MS, heading over to Auburn-LSU tonight. Lady threw the dice at my Beau Rivage table for over 30 min… GEAUX BEAU RIVAGE LADY!!

    Never been to Michie. USF actually played their first conference game ever there. Wish I had made the trip, glad you guys got to go.

    Packers -3 over Bengals (though this game is like GUARANTEED to push)
    Army +3 over Wake
    Va Tech -9.5 over Marshall
    Tennessee +17 over Florida
    USC -7 over Utah State

    Essay: Georgia Tech -6.5 over North Carolina

    This is one of gambling’s great secrets: Don’t ever let a Paul Johnson give team less than 7. The Jackets style of play is so perfect for getting covers and not getting backdoored as they triple option you to death with ball control. Plus they really have it rolling this year, averaging 6.5 yards per rush and… goodness me, over 11.6 yards per pass!! Granted there’s an Elon in there, but they’re moving it effectively and not turning it over: standard BEES football.

    Oh, and did you SEE UNC vs. Sakerlina?? Clueless out there, and Larry Hat isn’t overcoming the Butch Davis Hangover anytime soon.

  • Houston U -2.5 vs Rice
    Bucs +7 at Pats
    Texans -2.5 at Ravens
    Cards +8 at Saints
    AP: Packers -3 at Bengals
    EP: Bears -2.5 at Steelers

    Smoking Jay Cutler has changed. Trestman wrote a 280 page memoir on how accountability and introspection helped his career. Cutler has read Trestman’s 280 memoir, but has not discussed it with him. I like QBs going through some self-introspection, especially when they’re 2-0 and won two close games against a divisional opponent and the leading candidate to win the AFC North. Feels like the Bears are going to take advantage of the AFC North this year. Cutler is ready to own the spotlight and will light this game up. The Steelers O is a hot mess. I spent last weekend in Chicago and the overall Bears outlook was generally positive. A passionate friend of mine thinks this line should be 10 pts. Bear down.

  • Michigan State +7 (at Notre Dame)
    Arizona State +9 (at Stanford)

    More picks to follow

    • WEEK 4
      MSU +7 (at ND)
      ASU +9 (at Stanford)
      Patriots -7 (vs Buccaneers)
      Bears -2.5 (at Steelers)
      AP: Packers -3 (at Bengals)
      Essay: Raiders +15.5 (at Denver)

      Denver is not this good. They may win the Super Bowl, but still not this good. They crushed Baltimore a not very good Baltimore team with a huge home field advantage. Then the had 10 days to prepare for the Manning Bowl, where they overwhelmed a Giants team who may or may not be good but is almost never good early in the year. So sure, Denver is good but not this huge of a number against a feisty Raiders team. Consider, they almost knocked off the Colts in Indy, who after this week the media acts like is a super bowl contender (they are not, but they were like 11-5 last year). Then they handled Jax last week without much apparent effort. You dont win games sleepwalking in the NFL if you are a bad team (which his spread suggests). Then add in my bias for TP and its an easy pick. Moreover, I can easily see a scenario where the Broncos start to pull away, but with Denver going to a more “prevent” style defense, Pryor just starts running for 15 yard chunks all the way down the field. Lastly, the Broncos just lost their very good left tackle and have already lost their center for the year, so that probably means something.

  • The rest of mine
    Colorado St +41 @Alabama
    AP: GB -3 @Bungles
    Essay:
    Colts +10.5 @SF

    This pick makes little sense because the 49ers are MAD. They got destroyed by Captain Comeback’s arch Rival: Snake Oil Pete last week. Another reason it doesn’t make sense: The Colts are traveling to the west coast. Another reason it doesn’t make sense: Who knows Andrew Luck and Pep Hamilton better than Capt Comeback? But there are two reasons it does make sense: #1. It’s hard for me to imagine Andrew Luck losing a game by 10.5 and #2. Joe Banner (God hates Cleveland) because you know Trent is going to have the goodest game ever!!!

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Saturday Picks:
    K State +5 @ Texas
    UTSA PK over UTEP

  • Its Only Money

    @ Louisville -42.5 FIU
    @ OSU -49.5 FAMU
    @ Wisc -24.5 Purdue
    Miss -3.5 @ IU
    All Play @Cincy +3 GB

    Essay Pick Cleveland +6 @ Minn
    In a pick that defies all logic, I am going to take our Browns. As a season ticket holder I wanted to puke when I heard the news of the trade thinking that I have to go down to the stadium 7 more times to watch this team. Although I think in the long run the move makes sense I hate it now. I think the rest of the team rallies around the coach this week and surprises us all. As always we are still just waiting for next year.

  • pateslvrblk

    Clemson-15 over North Carolina St
    All play Packers-3 over Bengals
    Texas A&M -28.5 over SMU
    UConn +18.5 over Michigan
    LSU -18.5 over Auburn
    ***ASU +9 over Stanford

    While watching Stanford with Kanicki last week it was obvious that Stanford outweighed Army at every position on the line and yet Army was still able to make Stanford nervous. Stanford Quarterback Kevin Hogan threw 3 touchdown passes against Army but he also fumbled twice and tossed an interception at the goal line. One difference this week that might get overlooked is Army checked their plays frequently and used the play clock. Although they ran more Stanford had more time to get their wind back. ASU, I think runs a play about every 15 seconds. Last game, ASU ran 103 plays. It will be more of an uptempo game. ASU is a good football team at running and throwing the ball. As long as the Sun Devils limits mistakes they will be able to give the Cardinals a scare, and maybe even steal one.

  • 1. NC ST (W)
    2. Cinci +3 (all play)
    3. NYJ -2.5 (essay)- Dont have much time so this will be brief. Mentioned the reverse public line movement earlier. Manuel making first road start against a high volume, exotic Rex Ryan blitz scheme coming off a highly emotional W at home v Carolina while the Jets had 10 days off. Also they get Kerley back which should help.
    4. Sd St +12
    5. ASU +9
    6. SMU +28.5- let down city for A&M plus they can’t stop anybody.

    • Sorry Kanick I apologize but can I please remove ASU? I want CSU +41 instead. Saban won’t run it up against former Bama OC. Thx

  • From the motel 6 in south bend, where I don’t believe I will ever stay again, making my collegiate picks before I head out to tailgate. Walked into our room and said to myself, “SELF, THIS PLACE IS A SHITHOLE.”

    But i digress. I’m in town to see the Irish play, to see extended family, and to drink my face off.

    Arkansas State -4.5 @ Memphis. <– I have no idea why.

    That's all I've got for today. The slate of games is unimpressive, and while I think Michigan State is as close to a sure cover as I've seen, I'd rather not sit and root silently for my Irish to suck enough to win by 6 or less.

    Cheers. Roll Tide.

  • Man, pick an essay this week, huh? I will take Rutgers -2 vs Arkansas. Now then, I went against Rutgers in my first essay this year. Fresno wound up beating them in OT, but Rutgers covered easily and moreover they showed class. Remember, the Scarlet Knights had seven players from last year’s team drafted, five on defense. In spite of those losses and in spite of flying cross county, Rutgers hung with a pretty potent Fresno offense. Much credit to Kyle Flood.

    You might have noticed that Rutgers wasn’t that impressive against EMU last week, failing to cover, 28-10. But their QB Gary Nova (28th in pass efficiency) was knocked out of the game after the first TD drive early with a concussion. He’ll be playing this week. In his absence, a star has kinda been born in Junior RB Paul James, currently tops in the country in rushing yards. He racked up 3 TDs and 192 yds against EMU; did much the same against Fresno (191 yds) and Norfolk (3 TDs). While Arkansas currently sports a decent rush defense rank (19th), it’s been against soft competition (ULL and USM are in down years.). I think this balanced attack will give Arkansas problems. Travelling to NJ for their first away game this year won’t help matters. Last there is some QB uncertainty as the Hogs’ starter, Brandon Allen, is a game time decision.

    From the bettor’s perspective, the public is leaning Arkansas (55%) while the line has moved in Rutgers’ favor (from PK to current -2.5). Ultimately, I’m more impressed with Rutgers’ loss at Fresno than I am with Arkansas’ wins vs ULL and USM. QB Nova passed the eyeball test. It’s nice to have the #1 RB. And while I like Bret Bielema, I Kyle Flood too.

    1. Essay, Rutgers -2 vs Arkansas
    2. All-play, Bengals +3 vs Pack
    3. Chiefs +3.5 at Eagles (win)
    4. Fresno -3 vs Boise (lose)
    5. Troy +14.5 at MissySt
    6. UNT +33 at UGA

    Also playing FIU, Army, Marshall, FAU, Pitt, Syra, Wisc, PSU, USU, ULM, ULL, SMU, ASU, TexSt, Wyo, LSU, Cards, Colts, Vikes.

  • pforever

    ***LSU -17 Auburn
    Georgia -33 N.Texas
    Baylor -30 UL Monroe
    Buffalo +1 Jets
    Giants -1.5 Carolina
    Packers -3 Bengals

    I’m going with the one thing that’s been working for me this season, which means leaning on LSU one more time. I really like this team. Without being loud and overly obnoxious or chippy about the whole thing, they are just quietly rolling along showing everyone why they were silly to think the SEC would come down to Alabama and anybody else. I don’t really care if auburn has already won as many games this season as it did all of last season – they still are not a good team. Auburn’s defense is just totally awful, and particularly in the trenches LSU’s offensive line is going to dominate. Plus Auburn hasn’t played anyone yet. I mean – would you want your first real game of the season to be in baton rouge? I’m glad auburn fans got some reprieve from their misery, but it ends this week.

    • Plus Zach Mettenburger won his “Meaux Versus” two years ago.
      [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ3svBM9aN4&w=560&h=315]

  • Packers -3 (All Play)

    Vikings -3.5 over Browns

    Bears -2.5 over Steelers

    Cardinals +9 over Saints

    Michigan -17.5 over UConn

    Essay: Kansas State +6 at Texas

    Massachusetts and New Mexico State. No, it’s not a potential ticket for the 2016 Presidential Election. It’s a list of the only two teams whose rush defense ranks worse than the Texas Longhorns. My general rule is to never bet games that my alma mater plays in. I’m breaking that rule now. The Earl Thomas, Aaron Ross, Michael Griffin teams never would have given up 550 rushing yards to BYU. Hell, they might not have even given up 550 rushing yards on the YEAR.

    But, alas, the time has come for the “Mack Brown Holds Texas Hostage Watch” to approach 3 years. When you make Will Muschamp the “Head Coach In Waiting” it sounds like a girlie thing; only to watch him bolt for the SEC when the perenially overrated Brown needs to channel his inner Paterno and Bowden and outstay his welcome. Kansas State has always given the Horns fits and last year we were serenaded by KSt fans chanting “Who’s Your Daddy?”. Mack Brown, I have news for you….the bigwigs with the deep pockets don’t like being shown up on national television. Oh wait, no one actually GETS the Longhorn Network so there’s no fear that the majority of the country has seen how horriblly you’ve squandered yet another highly touted draft class.

    We have a defense that can’t tackle (Yeah, you Adrian Phillips) and an offensive line that can’t block. Gonna make for a long night.

    • acto

      Rod’o, You may not want The Longhorn Network, other than watching a few games I would not normally be able to see, it is nothing to write home about.
      I have bet against “My Old School” every game thus far and it has been working well for me. Missed tackles and bad angles about sums it up. I make it to the tailgates, but I never use my tickets. Then there is always something better to do than watch the game when I get home as well.
      I may start to follow another team.
      “I said oh no
      William and Mary won’t do”

  • Zarathustra

    Eagles -3.5 over Chiefs (L)
    Packers -3 over Bengals (all play)
    Sparty +7 over Notre Dame
    Kansas State +5 over Texas
    Maryland -6 over West Virginia
    Arkansas +2 over Rutgers***
    I have offered far too many online opinions the last couple days and am bagging the essay this week.

    • I promise my essay was written last night and so unintentionally contrary, but contrary nonetheless. 🙂

      • Zarathustra

        Ha! I actually think you make good points in your essay. I watched Rutgers quite a bit last year and liked them–I believe they netted me at least a cheddar points. I picked against them at Fresno too and though I didn’t watch it is hard not too be impressed with the result. Apparently Nova has really improved from last year. The problem is that last year their defense led the way and they lost a few key players–kasheem green was one of the best linebackers I watched in college last year. The performance against an admittedly good Fresno st offense only validates my concern. I made my pick under the impression that nova was still questionable. Nevertheless, I still like Arkansas. Last year they had national championship talent and underachieved under a bad coach. I know they lost a lot of that championship talent, but the cupboard wasn’t bare. They are still a pretty talented sec team playing with revenge. I don’t think the depleted Rutgers front will be able to withstand the pounding that bielema surely has in store.
        Well…I guess I’m not bagging the essay this week.

        • Indeed. This is your essay. Baggage rescinded.

    • Zarathustra

      I picked k state thinking David Ash was out. He’s playing. No way they lose. (Stop laughing acto.) Seriously, though I think there is enough of a chance that I am going to sit this one out.
      I will replace with:
      Giants (pk) over Panthers

  • Capitalgg

    This may well be neither my most eloquent nor sober cheddar bay essay, big i do not care. I can however recommend Summit brewery’s Octoberfest as an excellent choice for prepping to viewer a “Dumpster Fire Road Show”.

    With that being said, out some biscuits this week on New Mexico St +42.5.

    “Surely you can’t be serious” you say. Why, yes I’m serious and don’t call me Shirley.

    Thus is a perfect storm game for UCLA. They won a huge road game last week at Nebraska. Next week they open conference play at tough to play Utah.

    Then notice this line opened at -41 then jumped the key number of 42. That indicate s heavy public action on the Bruins. Being a better bettor says fade the public.

    Then just think about it. This should be a name your score game for UCLA, but as mentioned above this one looks to be a tough one to get up to play. So essentially the question is will UCLA win by more than 6 TDs. That’s a lot of points, so I’ll take them.

    (note: due to travel restraints, the rest of my picks will come via the Twitter machine)

    • Petefranklin

      42 is not that big of a “key #” although I like the way you are thinking.

      • acto

        “42 is not that big of a “key #” although I like the way you are thinking.”
        Absolute blasphemy sir!
        42 is the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything.

  • Jdoepke

    San Jose St +5
    Duke +4.5
    Indiana + 3.5
    Bengals +3 (All Play)
    Dolphins -1.5
    UNC + 6.5 (Essay)

    Early contrarian play of the year on this one. Everyone in the world has GT, and why not, they hung 68 on them last year in Chapel Hill. And yet, they are less than a TD favorite at home?? Who wouldn’t take they Yellowjackets -6.5. Well me. Give me the Heels. Hopefully this game turns around my essay plays as of late, which are killing me.

    Side Note to Brows fans in a not so subtle attempt to stir the pot: This has to be the week right? That line makes less sense than the GT/UNC line. I almost used it as a pick but I just can’t bring myself to root for a team that, well quite frankly reminds me of my Bengals of the 90’s. Who Dey!

  • mattborcas

    FAMU (+49.5) over OSU
    Texas (-5) over KSU
    Packers (-3) over Bengals

    more to come…..

  • A few to wet my Saturday whistle:
    @Maryland -6 vs WVU
    @Houston -2.5 vs Rice
    @Indiana +3.5 vs Missouri

  • Pitt Panthers -4.5
    Green Bay Packers -3
    Atlanta Falcons +1.5
    Jacksonville Jaguars +20
    San Diego Chargers +3
    ***Minnesota Vikings -6

    Vikings 0-2 after losing two close fought games to division rivals and starving for a win. At home. Facing a Brian Hoyer and Willis McGahee led Browns offense. And 51 other guys not likely to be nearly as motivated as this Vikings team after their front office just did their best impersonation of the French army in WWII two weeks into the season. Browns defense will keep this one close, and then give up some big plays in the second half after being on the field too much … like they do every week. 24-10 Vikings. Brownies one step closer to Teddy Bridgewater. And my liver one step closer to being hardened and diseased. God help us all.

  • cltil

    UTSA PK over UTEP – can’t argue with the guys on top of the leaderboard
    (AP) Pack -3 over Bengals. Obligatory
    Browns +6 over Vikes – because WTH, and YOLO, and Keke!
    Giants PK over Panthers
    Dolphins -1.5 over Falcons
    **Texans -2.5 over Ravens

    **The Ravens only beat the Browns because uhh, 6 points, and got crushed by a really good team in Denver. There are lots of reasons for the slow start, probably because Flacco’s missing those dependables. First, big lack of production by Ray Rice. (It’s the week to talk about RBs, I guess.). He managed just 36 rushing yards in both games 1 and 2. He’s due to start putting up his usual Ray Rice numbers, but he’s doubtful for Sunday. Not paying Boldin was a bad move by Ozzie. And that other guy, I forget his name, the one in the Modell shirt.

    Houston put up 30 and 31 points in close games. WR Andre Johnson is probable this week – add a few more points, like maybe 10? If Ed Reed gets in the game, and I hope he does, he’s going to do everything in his power to do his thing and pick Flacco off. I think that would be swell, because I’ve always wanted to like Ed Reed, and that would do it. Time for the Texans to show what they are capable of this week.

  • FTCMikeD

    @Florida Atlantic +5 over MTSU
    UTSA Pk over @UTEP
    @Patriots – 7 over Bucs
    AP: Pack -3 over @Bengals
    Bears -2.5 over @Stillers
    *****Browns +6 over @Vikes
    Now hear me out. I may be crazy, but shouldn’t this line be MUCH higher? I mean the Seahawks are -20 at home against the almost equally as pathetic Jags. It did not change after the Richardson trade and everyone is all over the Vikes on this… There are couple things going through my head on this one 1.) There is no tape on Hoyer. This ‘proven’ backup QB has been in the league for 4+ years. He should know his way around the football field by now and may even secretly be the starting QB once Weeds is healthy. Apparently back in the day Lombardi was HUGE on Hoyer when no one outside of St. Ignatius/Sparty knew of him. Does he know something that no one else does? 2.) Addition by subtraction. According to sources Trent was known as ‘Bitchardson.’ Also, Scott Fujita said he was showing up doing his own thing, wearing headphones, late to meetings, etc. If the other guys in the locker room are serious about this team, maybe they wanted this bad apple off the team. There could be an uplifting effect here by his removal. 3.) Minny’s Offense is ALL AD. Browns have shown they are REALLY strong against the run. I don’t think Ponder can really get them out to a large lead (7+ pts) with Mingo/Kruger/Sheard on his ass all day. 4.) Overconfident Vikes? They could be lulled into a false sense of security knowing the Brownies are starting their 3rd string QB and just traded their 1st string RB and all the circus around them this week. Anyways, maybe I’m drinking the kool-aid, but I think the stout Browns Defense keeps them within a TD on this one.

    • acto

      Bravo sir! Terrific essay.

  • ArtVandelay

    Purdue +24.5 @ Wisconsin

    MSU +7 @ ND – ND is 0-3 ATS & that trend continues

    Jets -2.5 vs Bills – Jets have had the Thursday night layoff & have the better D plus a running game

    Rams +4.5 @ Cowboys – Rams front will give Romo fits much like KC did

    AP: Bengals +3 vs Pack – Vegas & the public are all over the Pack so I am going to run the other way. Bengals have the D-line to give Rogers problems & the weapons on O to keep pace.

    Essay: Jags +20 @ Seahawks – The Zen philosopher, Basho, once wrote, “A flute with no holes is not a flute. And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.” He then also wrote, “The best bet is the one you are afraid to make.”

    So lets dumpster dive. Jump on in and roll in it. Honestly I believe the Seahawks could beat the Jags 49-0 if they really cared to do so. But that is the point, the Seahawks have no desire nor a need to beat the Jags like a drum. They simply will want to win this game, pray no one gets hurt & move on. After a big win against the 49ers the Seahawks will not be as sharp nor will the 12th man be as loud.

  • Essay: Texas -5 vs. KSU

    Classic buy low, sell high. Kansas St. has won their last two games by a combined 51 points. What Texas has done the last two weeks is no secret. They look awful. Let’s think about this though: An inexperienced team that has already lost a home game to North Dakota State, playing it’s first road game of the season under the lights in Austin, TX, would lead bookmakers to set a line at…5? If this game was played just last week, the line would’ve been double digits. Add in the fact that Kansas St. has won and covered the last five meetings in this series, but they were out-gained by Texas in all five. The ball has to bounce Texas’s way at some point. Colt McCoy’s little bro would never let us dahn.

    Arizona St +9
    San Diego St +12
    Fresno St -3
    Picksburgh Stillers +2.5
    Will post the all play later.

  • I’m going to Friday night Cheddar myself with:

    Fresno -3 vs Boise.

    Will the rest of the picks tonite/tomorrow.

    • clevelandfrowns

      Yo boss, we gonna get a line for Ohio State/FAMU? I saw it opened at 57, down to 50 at VegasInsider.

    • clevelandfrowns

      I should add that Borcas and I will be live at the Shoe tomorrow. It would be a shame to not have some live cheese going.

  • cwonder23

    Chargers +3 @ Titans
    Vikings -6 vs Browns
    Cardinals +9 @ Saints
    SJSU +5 @ Minnesota
    AP: Packers -3 @ Bengals
    Essay: Giants PK @ Panthers

    The last time the NYG started 0-2, they won the Super Bowl. While I don’t think that is in the cards this year, I also don’t think think an 0-3 start is as well. The Panthers have showed me that they play not to lose rather than playing to win which we all know doesn’t work in the NFL. Eli will figure things out this week and beat a Carolina team that has struggled to score points. Outside of Greg Olsen and an aging Steve Smith, Cam doesn’t really have anyone to throw too, which makes them one-dimensional. Another telling reason for me is the fact this game opened at Panthers -3 and is currently sitting around NYG -1. I am 0-3 on essay picks this year, so I am due for a W!

    • cwonder23

      Sorry. Cardinals +8 @ Saints

  • Purdue +24.5 vs Wis – Purdue is bad, but that bad? This is big 10 play

    Marshall +9.5 vs VT

    GB -3 vs Cin (All Play)

    Chi -2.5 vs Pit

    SD + 3 vs Ten

    Was -1.5 vs Det (Essay)

    I think this game is all about the Redskins coming back from an unexpected Week 1 loss to Philly and a Week 2 loss to Green Bay which was much worse than the 38-20 score would indicate. RGIII obviously doesn’t have much confidence in his knee right now but I think this is the week he snaps out of that. I just hope for the sake of his brittle body he learns how to slide and run out of bounds.

  • deputyglitters

    Bears -2.5 @ Steelers
    Giants PK @ Panthers
    Packers -3 @ Bengals
    Bills + 2.5 @ Jets
    Colts +10.5 @ 49ers
    Lions + 1.5 @ Redskins

    It’s hard to write an essay pick after going 0-6. I question every bit of logic that finds its way onto the page—second and third guessing everything. I don’t feel strongly about any of these picks and by default have settled on the Lions over the Redskins. I think the Lions win this game outright. Griffin has been shaky and while he acclimates to the knee brace, I think the adjustment period continues. This is secondary to the fact that the Redskins pass defense is terrible—this is a perfect opportunity for Detroit to get its air game going at full strength.

    • acto

      dg,
      Before you get busted, are there any late CFB games to play?

  • Squeekycleen

    Miami -1.5 (essay): This really boils down to whether you think Miami is a legit 2-0, or a fraud 2-0. My guess is the former, given both wins have been on the road, a tall order in the NFL. The Falcons were heavily hyped this year, but I haven’t been impressed. They could have lost last week, and I don’t see the acquisition of 30-year-old Stephen Jackson as the game changer the paid pundits do. Huge statement game for the Dolphins, and I think they get it done at home. This will of course be considered a shocking upset.

    Panthers Pk
    Arizona St. +9
    Jets -2.5: Any time you can lay points with the Jets, you have to do it.
    Rams +4.5

    All play: Cincinnati +3

    • clevelandfrowns

      “Any time you can lay points with the Jets, you have to do it.”

      You are the best, Squeeky. The best.

  • Let’s see if I can remain infinitely more competitive than either of my real football teams. I’ll expound on one of them in a minute. I’m usually a college football specialist, but this week there are a few good NFL lines. Here we go.

    ALL PLAY: Packers -3 vs. Bengals
    I don’t really have a good line on either of these teams (I was unable to watch much NFL this past week), so I guess I’m going with the team more likely to run the other off the field. Surprised no one has mentioned the greatness that happened last time Green Bay was in Cincinnati.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLCALL_5mPc

    Michigan -18.5 vs. UConn
    Hate laying this many points on the road but UConn is horrible and Pasqualoni is a dead coach walking.

    Vikings -6 vs. Browns
    Duh.

    Patriots -7 vs. Buccaneers
    Schiano is so jank. He’s misusing his two best defensive players (let’s have Gerald McCoy run stunts and put Darrelle Revis in zone coverage on bad receivers!). His offensive coordinator is dialing up terrible game plans. His GM decided not to sign a tight end to give Josh Freeman a safety valve, and let his best defensive end walk to Seattle over a million dollars or so. And then there’s Schiano, who is as NFL AIDS as they come, punting on 4th and short and going ultra-conservative and settling for 45-yard field goals when there’s plenty of time and incentive to keep driving the ball. This team shouldn’t be anywhere near as bad as they look, and certainly not about to be 0-3. Whoever is coaching this team next year (Lovie Smith, maybe?) can get this turned around quickly if they know what they’re doing.

    Falcons +1.5 vs. Dolphins
    Let’s tap the brakes on Miami here. Atlanta hasn’t really run the ball well in a few years, so not having Steven Jackson isn’t a huge issue. They use the run to keep the defense honest and that’s all.

    ESSAY: Kansas State +5 vs. Texas
    I don’t understand this line at all. Obviously the Longhorns are in crisis mode and they just got incinerated by BYU and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks. They can’t stop the run, and oh look, here comes a team that can run the ball in a variety of ways and is 10 times better coached than them. EMAW isn’t that bad. Yeah they lost to North Dakota State, but those guys could probably beat 50 FBS teams. Also EMAW has owned Texas lately — wins in three straight seasons and five straight games overall. Remember in 2010 when the Wildcats dominated Texas and didn’t throw a pass until the fourth quarter? Maybe the funniest game of the decade so far. I have my doubts that a defensive coordinator who claimed to have been keeping track of the team on the Longhorn Network and was a volunteer assistant coach at a high school before this season is going to figure this one out.

    • clevelandfrowns

      “I don’t understand this line at all.”

      This usually means “hold on to your pants” in my experience.

    • clevelandfrowns

      “Schiano is so jank” was dead on, though.

  • Good grief does this week stink. Especially these college games.

    I will give my Sunday NFL picks later. For now-

    RickWFNY

    Penn State -21 over Kent State

    Kansas State +5 over Texas

    • And now the rest…

      Texas Tech -27 over Texas State

      Texans -2.5 over Ravens

      All Play: Packers -3 over Bengals (If the Pack loses, this is the last home dog I pick against, I swear.)

      Essay: Broncos -15.5 over the Raaaaiiiderz

      I don’t know why anyone would pay attention to my essay pick. I have been so fabulous with them to this point (sarcasm font). But no more! A new page is turned. A new leaf has been leaved. Or… something.

      I’m rolling with two rules for Cheddar Bay until proven otherwise. The first is always give consideration to whoever is playing the Longhorns. Check.

      The second is roll with Peyton Manning and the Broncos until they lose. Is Manning the best regular season QB ever? I think he might be. There also is no other QB I would trust the week after losing his left tackle for the season.

      But the best reason to take the Broncos might be the defense, specifically the rush defense. Is this a case of other teams being behind by multiple scores and having to pass the ball? Maybe. And that’s ok with me, especially against Pryor and the Raiders. I want Pryor throwing instead of running.

      Manning will figure out ways to score against Oakland. Get up by a bunch and reap the rewards. Cheddar points roll to me!

  • on behalf of pateslvblk, I am posting her CLEMSON pick tonite.

    and I will ride with Acto and the CHIEFS tonite.

  • thatsfine

    thatsfine

    Clemson -14.5

    More this weekend.

  • PETER M

    PACKERS
    CLEMSON -15 OVE NCSU
    TEXAS AM -28.5 OVE SMU
    ARI -9 OVER NO
    SEA -905 OVER JAC
    MIN -5.5 OVER CLE
    BACK UP QB, FOURTH STRING RUNNING BACK. THIS SEASON HAS BECOME ” TANKING FOR TEDDY” OR “JUNKING IT FOR JOHNNY” OR “BOMBING FOR BOYD”. BROWNS FANS NEED TO ACCEPT THE INEVITABLE TWO OR THREE WIN SEASON. BARELY A FULL SEASON HAS GONE BY AND WE ARE STARING AT THREE HIGH ROUND BUSTS. WHEEDEN HAS NO MOJO, TRENT IS GONE AND GORDON IS A STONER. THERE IS HOPE ON THE DEFENSIVE SIDE OF THE BALL. THE ONLY GLARING WEAKNESS IS CORNERBACK NOT NAMED JOE HADEN. THE VIKINGS WILL EXPLOIT THIS EVEN WITH CHRISTIAN PONDER. THE DEFENSE COULD HOLD THE VIKING TO 20 POINTS, BUT THE OFFENSE WONT SCORE MORE THAN 10. THE DEFENSE IS YOUNG. MAYBE THE OFFENSE CAN CATCH UP IN TWO SEASONS.

  • Ok I lied. I’ll take some Thurs night CFB action while in the city. Give me
    1- NC St +14.5- It’s currently at -13 on my online book breaking thru a key 14 number. Public support on Clemson bc of their high octane offense (anyone who follows me on twitter know I love Tajh Boyd. Watkins too btw) but their defense is bad and historically Thursday night CFB dogs are a good play and in conference it’s even better.
    Ok now I’ll be back tomorrow with more picks.

  • Busy on a work related trip in NYC so I’ll submit my picks tomorrow afternoon. But since I started it last week and it was successful I’ll do it again this week until it isn’t for you guys. The Skanky Fish (or Rotten Fish) whatever you want to call it. Again for definition it includes the games that have public support on one side but significant line change the opposite direction, hence something stinks, mainly focusing on single digit lines. Here’s the idea. The public is wrong, A LOT, and so if the public loves one side yet the line moves the other way it typically means smart money is on the team opposite the public. Vegas books only care what the big, smart money is doing not necessarily the public that’s why they mainly only move the lines when the smart money is on one side. As noted in a past post, if you are looking to wager on one of these games, more than likely the line has moved so much already that you’ve lost value. But for this contest it still works and like last week, lots of times the team opposite the public ends up just winning outright. Best be sure one or more will be submitted as my picks this week. Hopefully this at least helps ppl avoid landmines or makes you think twice.

    CFB:
    – SJSU v Minn (opened Min -5, now -3.5. 65% on MIN) ADV: SJSU
    – Memphis v ARK St (opened -6, now -4. 69% on ARK st) ADV: Memphis
    – SDSU v Oregon St (opened -11, now -8.5. 67% on Oregon St) ADV: SDSU

    NFL:
    – ATL v MIA (opened PK, now MIA -2.5. 68% on ATL) ADV: MIA
    – Buf v NYJ (opened NYJ -1, now NYJ -2.5. 64% on BUF) ADV: NYJ

    • Petefranklin

      I was probably going to take two, maybe three of those plays for the contest without even looking at bet %, Thanks.

  • Concierge

    Oregon State -11
    UTSA PK Essay
    San Jose State +5
    Indiana +4
    Cincy +3
    Dolphins -1.5

    Interesting pick for the essay I know, But this one caught my eye earlier in the week. The line opened up as UTEP -3 and now has moved to a pick em. Something is up there. UTSA is not a bad team and they put up 36 points vs OK State a couple of weeks ago. They can score.. Don’t forget that Larry Coker is the head coach now of UTSA so he will have his guys ready.. Plus Michelle Beadle is an alum of UTSA so you gotta love that! Go RoadRunners

    • acto

      A bit of inside info says that you are correct. Nice call sir!

      • clevelandfrowns

        Hmmm.

  • Bengals +3 over Packers (ALL PLAY)
    Fresno St -3 over Boise St
    Michigan St +7 over Notre Dame
    Arizona St +9 over Stanford
    Cardinals +8 over Saints ***
    Panthers E over Giants

    *** Since when did the Arizona Cardinals and new coach Bruce Arians have swag? They easily could be 2-0 and are the quietest team in the best division in the NFL. The revamped offense with Carson Palmer and Mendenhall actually looks decent and their defense is all around pretty damn good. I can’t understand how the Saints are everyone’s darling again when they’ve squeaked out two close games, albeit both against divisional foes. But beating the god awful Bucs by 2? Come on now. This just seems like way too many points for a possible let down game against an out of division opponent who the public thinks is not good.

  • acto

    I am actually something not exactly quite unlike excited about the Browns future.
    The Browns have a trading Maven!!
    How the hell did they manage to get a first round pick for a running back?
    That would be like drafting a running back in the first round for the Colts. I can not imagine any real NFL team ever drafting a running back in the first round. I never saw Trent Richardson play. The Browns do have that marginal back who plays his heart out, but his last name is Ric on.
    I hope the Browns take a Center, or a player on the important side of the ball with that 1ST ROUND DRAFT CHOICE!

    • I actually agree that it’s a good trade.
      But at the same time it is a confirmation of season tank two games in. I’m working on post concerning this. Meantime, I created a “Browns punt 2013” category that offers a pretty good perusal of evidence that the big tank was coming.

      • acto

        The Browns are going to “Suck for Luck” a few years late. I hope they are not going to Bridgewater all over themselves. Clowney is not the next Lawrence Taylor either. They should keep their number 6 pick and the 16 pick they get from the colts and take a Center and the best DB available.
        It is a passing league, be different and Stop the Pass..

  • Bevilacqua

    Bevilacqua

    I think I’m 0-for-all-my-NFL picks so far, so it makes sense to make five of them this week, right? Seahawks (-20) over Jags, anyone? I don’t ever recall seeing an NFL line this big…tempting, but I’ll lay off that one.

    Michigan (-18.5) over UConn
    After about 10 years on the I-A scene, it looks like UConn want to retreat to the lower divisions of college football. And Michigan will have to respond to that almost-loss to Akron.

    Eagles (-3.5) over Chiefs
    Jump on the Chip Kelly bandwagon, jump off, jump back on again, jump off…

    Falcons (+1.5) over Panthers
    I don’t think the Falcons need a RB to beat the Dolphins. Tannehill has looked great (at least compared to anything the Browns have), but I just can’t see the Dolphins sitting at 3-0.

    Bills (+2.5) over Jets
    I now believe in EJ Manuel. And just about any other QB drafted in the past two years not named Weeden.

    All-Play: Packers (-3) over Bengals
    The Bengals (who are not undefeated, by the way…misinformation to sway the masses?) have played the Bears and the Steelers. Not exactly the same caliber as the Packers.

    ESSAY PICK: Vikings (-6) over Browns
    None of these 100 words are going to be original, so I’ll just regurgitate some points that every Browns fan (and the rest of the world) is thinking. The coaching staff decided to turn to their 3rd string QB. They just traded away Trent Richardson (so if I’m keeping score at home, all of those 1st round draft picks that they didn’t want to give up for RGIII have now become the Colts’ 2014 first round pick, a benched 30-year-old QB (I’m not buying this injured thumb bullshit), and Mingo). They are playing on the road against an 0-2 Vikings team that is desperate for a win. If this line was 14 I would still lay the points. No way the Browns stay within a score. If I’m feeling this depressed, think about what it must be like to be in that locker room as a player. Thank God I didn’t shell out the $340 for NFL Sunday ticket so I can watch the Browns play this year.

  • FlyHighCharlieFrye

    All play: The Last Remaining AFC North Ginger Gunslinger and Company +3

    San Jose State +5 at Minnesota
    Raiders +15.5 at Broncos
    Dolphins – 1.5 vs. Falcons
    Ravens +2.5 vs. Texans

    Pitt Panthers -4.5 at Duke

    Oh, ACC. Goooooooo ACC. The nation saw Pitt get smoked on Labor Day…and I took the bait trying to cover a big number against them last week with something called a New Mexico. Didn’t work, and it may be because Pitt has a veteran QB, a really good receiver and maybe a good coach. Duke is without its QB, can’t have any real homefield advantage and probably isn’t as good as last year, when it was good for the first time since about 1862. I just think a Pitt team as a road fave must be a Pitt team that’s going to win, and this here says it wins by a touchdown.

  • acto

    Went to dinner with my boss, his brilliant wife and some lady they know.
    el jefe’ pushed enough gin and sodas my way to assure me a LOBSTERFEST!
    (Drunk me actually thinks he knows something.)

    FIrst I would like to give my definitive response to our highly esteemed sharps and say “huh”. It was all interesting and I love you guys, but I did not understand any of your wisdom. I do however appreciate your effort. However,I did figure out that always betting against Oregon because their uniforms suck may not be a good idea.
    @Bungles +3 over Packers ap
    Beloved Browns +6 @ Minn I was finally able to see the Ravens game very late last night and the Browns are looking better on the important side of the ball.
    Texicans -1 @Ravens
    K State + 5 @Tejas
    UTSA pk @ UTEP
    ****KC + 3.5 @ Eagles****
    The league has not instituted a “You are not hurt” policy and the other kids are ‘Catching Up With’ the depeche mode currently in vogue. Andy the hut (not a scifi guy, I hope I used that correctly) is certainly a few IQ points below the desired coaching minimum, but he has a lot more talent on his sideline than our latest “it worked in the NCAA” genius. I like to think of yards per play as an important stat, although I still refuse to ever check a stat and the Eagles run a lot of plays, so they should score more points, therefore I am going to completely ignore their offence. If they had a really high yards per play average we would all forget that Cumberland score.
    Alex Smith was in a bad situation, however he has has pulled himself up from the flames and risen above it all, almost like he played in Phoenix. He is a good quarterback, if there is such a thing. Alex Smith has not thrown an interception this season. Alex Smith has not thrown an interception this season. Alex Smith has not thrown an interception this season.
    If Eric Fisher can pull up his big boy pants and channel his inner Luke Joeckle the Chiefs could be a big surprise this season. I see them winning not just covering the spread.

    • cltil

      The Texans are -2.5, if it matters.

  • Well Jim, I’d say you read Joe Banner like a book…

  • Week 4 Picks

    All Play #1 – Packers (-3) over Bengals – Think Banner can get a 1st for Haden to be in Cincy by Sunday? Probably not so Aaron Rodgers has a field day.

    Ball State (-11) over Eastern Michigan

    Seahawks (-20) over Jaguars – I understand the history of large lines like this. It does not look good for Seattle. The problem is that history can’t account for a team with helmets like that…my god Jacksonville. It looks like 3 teams are on the damn field depending on which way you guys are facing…that and well I don’t see the Jaguars scoring.

    49ers (-10.5) over Colts – You don’t want to play this Coach after a loss. He wins and he covers. Have fun shuffling into the hole on Sunday Trent.

    Washington State (-32.5) over Idaho – When Idaho and Akron both covered last week I built a bomb shelter. If Idaho covers 2 weeks in a row I may consider putting food in it. Need to remember to be cautious with Idaho at home…on the road they are a raging dumpster fire.

    Essay Pick

    Quick…which coach has won his last 10 home games and covered in all of them?

    I’ll admit it…this had me stumped for a few minutes.

    It’s a borderline trick question but the answer is Sean Payton. No one goes into the dome and beats Brees and Payton there. I like Arizona. I like every single thing they have done outside of the QB spot. I think they have some good pieces but not enough to slow them down and at the end of the day Carson Palmer will make a huge mistake and swing the game to a two or three touchdown game.

    Saints (-8) over Cardinals

    • The last team to beat Payton in the Superdome was, hilariously, the Raheem Morris Bucs to end the 2010 regular season.

  • ***STANFORD (-9) vs Arizona State***
    As frustrated as I am with the Bengals in an All-Play, I’m relieved it’s not that MAC stinker. It gives real-life #MACtion, which we’ll in November a bad name. This Game of the Week will be on FOX, and features a couple of 2-0 teams. Stanford looks good in paper, but they’ve only played San Jose State and Army to date, so on-field results are to be taken with a grain of salt. ASU destroyed Sacramento State, then stole one from Wisconsin after they tried to give it away. I look at all the things that the ASU offense does well, and think how they aren’t going to be able to do them well against the Cardinal. I look at their vulnerabilities in defense, and think about how easily Stanford will exploit them. It went be a boat race, but when Stanford goes up 14, expect Ed Reynolds and that secondary to look world-classish when Taylor Kelly is forced to throw.

    Don’t let the number or Stanford’s somewhat underwhelming track record to date scare you. This has classic Sun Devil Meltdown written all over it.

    *Packers (-3) at Bengals*
    Not sold on the Bengals at this point. Bears played hella sloppy and still beta them. Steelers competence level too low for proper judgement after MNF. Packers still hungry after Week 1 beating, despite W over Washington.

    VIKINGS (-6) vs Browns
    One 0-2 team is better than their record suggests, the other is represented quite fairly by their W-L record. I’m giving up the points and going with the former.

    Giants (PICK) at PANTHERS
    I just don’t see the Giants falling to 0-3, even in the road, even after that beating they took from Big Brother at home.

    Falcons (+1.5) at DOLPHINS
    Trust is a factor in making these picks; I trust Ryan more than Tannehill right now.

    Bears (-2.5) at STEELERS
    If you can throw on the Steelers, and if you can get to Roethlisberger, you can probably defeat them. The Bears can, and should, do both.

  • clevelandfrowns

    Let the record show that this All Play sucks and I had nothing to do with its selection.

    The Cheddar Bay intro post says: “Another of your picks will be a weekly all-play in which the Executive Committee decides on the biggest or most interesting game that week.”

    EMU/Ball State is not the biggest or most interesting game this week by any possible stretch. Having to pick it makes me hate football.

    Why even have an All Play if you’re going to use a random number generator to select it?

    • Sorry. Respectfully move to vacate All Play selection as outside both the letter and spirit of the All Play rule. Almost any other game would be better, including each of those mentioned. Thank you.

      • As you know last week’s selection was neither the biggest nor most interesting but a vocal member of the board felt it would be a good game so we waived strict adherence to the big/interesting rule (and established a precedent for executive judgement calls).

        At any rate, your motion has been seconded via email response(s) and the board has convened to discuss it and next steps.

        • Browns games are by definition interesting here. This is a damn Browns site. And a regular season Browns game being selected as an All Play is nothing new in this contest so no new precedent was established last week. Even this week’s Browns game would be an obviously better choice than Ball/EMU.

        • THANK YOU.

        • Jdoepke

          Hey, there are some Bengals fans here as part of the group too. If we can make the Browns v Ravens the All Play last week that yielded a whopping 20 points combined, we can make 2 potential playoff teams an all play for one week. Question for the Brownies: are they packing it in already with the trade of Richardson? Stockpiling draft picks after week 2, gotta love how things are going in Cleveland.

          PS- why does everyone think the Bengals are undefeated?

  • trashycamaro

    Sound educated when talking to your friends about Cheddar Bay: it is pronounced “ipsi” and “ipsilanti”, and not “Yipsi” and “Yipsilanti”. And never forget the giant penis that greets you on your arrival:

    http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=ypsilanti+water+tower&id=7A57042B74F6D9CDBE3152CCE6DC4C7839848B42&FORM=IQFRBA#a

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